“Indeed, we maintain our view that the APC’s Tinubu is best placed to win the presidential election. We expect that the party, which has nominated a Muslim-Muslim ticket, will repeat its strong performance in the North. Given that Tinubu is a former governor of Lagos, the party is also likely to improve on its performance in the South West. Furthermore, we expect Tinubu to benefit from incumbency advantages, with the APC having been in power since 2015.” (Fitch, a leading global rating company) – Nation, 29th October 2022.
There was a small town. In this community, there were two friends. They were born and bred in that town and both from the same royal family. There was a day an oracle man came visiting the town and the duo had an uncommon encounter with this supernatural being. It was during this encounter that one of them was told that he would be crowned king in the same community after the demise of the incumbent king while the other friend would end up being a servant and not be anywhere near the throne even though born as a prince from the same ruling house. The one pronounced by the oracle as a king-in-waiting began to live wantonly and recklessly. The other that received the prophecy of servitude decided to leave for another town. On arrival at the new community, he was determined to prove the oracle wrong by embarking on farming. He cultivated a large acreage of land annually. This man, within a few years, became prosperous and famous within and around his community of residence. Unknown to this man, there was the custom of the town to enthrone someone who was not an indigene but from a royal family as their king. However, the man to be appointed apart from having untainted character must be prosperous. He met all the criteria. Eventually, the one that was initially predicted to live and die in servitude was crowned king while his friend that had the prophecy of kingship ended up as a derelict and unfit for the throne!
Three Horse Race
In early September 2022, there was a poll commissioned by Anap Foundation and conducted by NOI Polls Limited. In that poll, Mr. Peter Obi was projected to lead the presidential race of 2023 by 21% of votes in the polls. However, when the synopsis of the surveys was dissected, there was a palpable genuine ground to doubt its veracity. Why? People that were undecided and refused to partake in the poll were put at 32% and 15% respectively. Altogether, this constitutes 47% of people surveyed. Can one really conclude based on this seemingly skewed or slanted submission? Moreover, going by the records, can one really rely on the result of any poll conducted by NOI taking into cognizance past polls relating to elections in Nigeria? Definitely, this columnist as a researcher will take such a result with a pinch of salt!
On the heels of the NOI poll came the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) poll giving the winning edge to the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. As reported in the Businessday edition of 23rd September 2022, EIU posited: “we expect Tinubu to take the presidency, and recent developments have only reinforced our thinking. It does not appear that a Muslim-Muslim ticket will weigh significantly on Tinubu’s electoral chances …” In the same vein, EIU has forayed into election prediction in time past with a 50% success rate: got it correct in 2015 for Muhammadu Buhari, but missed it in 2019 for Atiku Abubakar.
The latest poll that unsettled some political observers and analysts came from Fitch, a leading global rating company. In its report, the presidential candidate of APC was tipped to be enthroned as the de jure president come 29th May 2023. Quoting the Nation newspaper edition of 29th October 2022, it saliently and succinctly stated inter alia: “Indeed, we maintain our view that the APC’s Tinubu is best placed to win the presidential election. We expect that the party, which has nominated a Muslim-Muslim ticket, will repeat its strong performance in the North. Given that Tinubu is a former governor of Lagos, the party is also likely to improve on its performance in the South West. Furthermore, we expect Tinubu to benefit from incumbency advantages, with the APC having been in power since 2015.” There are veritable grounds for the submission of Fitch to justify the outcome of its polls. However, to this columnist, the most cogent, core and crucial point that stands out from the outcome of the polls from the ones of NOI and EIU is that most online users were ascribed or attributed to support Peter Obi, whereas, according to the World Bank report of 2020, only 36.0% of Nigerians have access to the internet. In essence, the outcome of the NOI poll is seemingly skewed and slanted whilst a large chunk of voters was unreached in the poll. Hence, the reliability or credibility is in doubt!
Obi: Outlining Odds
It is widely known that most ardent and vociferous supporters of Mr. Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s candidate, in the February 2023 presidential election are mostly online and consists of a youthful population who believe it is high time to jettison the old order and project someone different. Curiously, is Peter Obi within that bracket in the context of Nigeria’s polity? Let us brush aside the response. It is good for these ardent supporters to be reminded that in the presidential race, geographical spread of your party is very germane to winning the contest. In Hausa diction, it is “ba wasa” (not for play)! Obi lacks support base in the northern part of this country even as the incumbent Governor of Katsina State once wittingly derided Mr. Peter Obi in a television interview in which Governor Aminu Bello Masari stated that an average northerner might mistake Obi for a Nollywood actor. It is seemingly funny but equally true to many semi-urban and rural dwellers in that part of the country. In essence, the Labour Party lacks the rugged and robust structure to win the presidency. The avid and combatant supporters of Obi need to be told that his name would not be on the ballot but his party. How many of them are conversant with the symbol of the Labour Party as of now – about 3 months to the election? There are widely known distinct symbols of the People Democratic Party (PDP) (umbrella) and All Progressives Party (APC) (broom). The leaders of the Labour Party should better begin this cogent awareness and sensitization among its supporters instead of fighting and finding faults with candidates cum supporters of other parties in the race with their party. It is seemingly an uphill task for the Labour Party candidate to win the presidential election of February 2023 taking cognizance of the dictates of the1999 Constitution (as amended). It is simply and squarely stated that for a candidate to win, he has to garner a simple majority of the total vote cast plus 25% of votes cast in 24 out of the 36 states in the country. The two conditions are seemingly unattainable for a party that fails to have gubernatorial and National Assembly (NASS) candidates in many states. Question: who will be the party agents monitoring the presidential election in these states, districts, constituencies, wards and units. The Labour Party (LP) needs a lot of ground to cover. If it braces up very well by building a brand through a clear-cut identity and ideology, it could be a party to beat in the future, but definitely not 2023. However, the chances of LP look bright in the south east and south south regions where there is likelihood of the votes of the main opposition party, PDP, being fragmented between it and LP. On the other hand, Obi’s influence despite the presence of his Igbo brethren, largely traders, and some youths clamouring for change from the old political overlords in the south west seemingly cannot cause a seismic shift in the voting pattern in that region as Tinubu holds sway without any controversy.
Prophecy or Prediction: Proper Preparation Prevents Poor Performance!
In conclusion, it is intriguing and interesting to make reference to the commencement story to this article. To this columnist, whatever may be the outcome of any poll, be it NOI, EIU or Fitch, what is vital is how properly prepared are the parties and the candidates flying the flags of these parties as the February 2023 presidential election beckons. In addition, to be factored in, is the pervading and persuasive strategic sagacious steps that will be deployed by sub national political overlords within some contexts of the country. Referring to the latter, the influence and impact of the trio of Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State; Governor ‘Seyi Makinde of Oyo State; and Governor Samuel Ortom of Benue State could not be wished away even as the war of attrition within the PDP aftermath of the presidential primary is escalating and exacerbating almost on a weekly basis. In the next edition, this columnist will put searchlight on the chances and odds against the candidacies of Atiku Abubakar and Bola Ahmed Tinubu. All said and done, the trio of Obi, Atiku and Tinubu need to roll up their sleeves for more engagement with the electorates cutting across the strata of followers within the nooks and crannies of Nigeria rather than anyone of them grandstanding on the social media as most typical voters in Nigeria are not vociferous virtually. This should be a word of wisdom to the furious fans and followers of Mr. Peter Obi. It is significant and salient to state that as at the time of going to the press, Obi is yet to come out with a pragmatic roadmap of how he would govern Nigeria as he supposedly believes that crafting a manifesto does not matter. How would the electorate take him seriously? Is that not analogous to a builder intending building a house without a blueprint? The electorates are flowing and following along in apparent bewilderment as Peter Obi looks the odd man out of the trio of the leading contestants in the race to the Aso Rock Villa. It is not too late in the day to make amends!
- Ekundayo, Ph.D. – can be reached via 08155262360 (SMS only) and drjmoekundayo@hotmail.com