Momentum is a powerful factor in any political contest because it has the potential to propel winners over the finishing line. It comes with a bandwagon effect that sweeps the undecided along. A campaign that has it radiates positive buzz much of the time; even when flak is aimed at its candidate it hardly sticks.
Where it is lacking, the candidate and his backers would be perpetually on the defensive, staggering from from one public relations disaster to another. No matter how hard they try, it just seems as if the fates have conspired against their enterprise and a dark cloud has taken permanent residence over their house.
We are almost a quarter of the way into the 2023 presidential race and enough has already happened to show who has wind in their sails and who is drifting.
The main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and its flagbearer, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, were quickly out of the blocks, holding their inaugural rally in the Akwa Ibom State capital of Uyo. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has also kicked off with engagements with critical stakeholders in two zones and is set for its first major rally in Jos in less than a week.
Labour Party (LP) cadres didn’t wait for the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to officially flag things off. Generating massive online chatter around Peter Obi’s bid and with street walks across several states, they got people to take notice.
The New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) is the other project about which there’s been some noise – albeit around the Kano base of its presidential candidate, former governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, and some surrounding Northern states. With no discernible identity or ideology beyond the persona and political pull of its leader, it became a gathering place for internally displaced politicians who had lost out in the bruising battles for election tickets in APC and PDP.
The high point for the party was its brief embrace of Senator Ibrahim Shekarau, which held out the prospect that, even if Kwankwaso never got to be president, his partnership with an erstwhile local rival could disrupt all calculations in this vote-rich state. But such was the brevity of the cohabitation that the senator and his supporters quickly scuttled back to PDP. The move was akin to piercing the NNPP balloon with a pin.
Long before the campaigns officially got going, some had predicted that it would be – as usual – a two-horse race. Supporters of the LP, one of the weakest political organizations in the country with virtually no office holder to call their own, vehemently disagreed, believing that not only would Obi’s candidacy be disruptive, it could actually prevail. Not even the high bar set by the constitution for winning proved a reality check.
They had free rein on social media while the traditional parties held their horses. But we’ve seen a change over the past six weeks and that pattern would be locked in as we push further into the campaign season, as the parties unleash their own armies online.
For the ruling APC, it wasn’t the start they would have wished for. What with the flap over the constitution of its Presidential Campaign Council (PCC). The sudden overseas trip by its candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, helped fuel the never-ending conspiracy theories around his health. Not even video or photographic evidence was enough to assuage those who were determined to believe that all was not well with him. But the council was quickly reconstituted; candidate and party have since put their show on the road.
APC had an armada of presidential aspirants and its opponents would have wished some made waves over the outcome of the primaries. But that hasn’t happened. Even those who may be bitterly disappointed at being defeated have chosen to lick their wounds with quiet dignity. Perhaps, calm has been helped by President Muhammadu Buhari’s firm declaration that he would lead Tinubu’s campaign frontally. Put simply, the ruling party’s post-primaries housekeeping has been quite good.
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The same cannot be said for the PDP whose internal squabbles are now confirmed as irreconcilable. Ordinarily, an incumbent party which has been battling with insecurity and economic woes, should be on the defensive if the opposition was united and determined. But the reverse is the case. In 2015, a united opposition party that was barely two years old, toppled the then bickering ruling party.
Today, one of PDP’s most notable pillars, Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike, in league with four of his colleagues has effectively split the party down the middle by demanding the resignation of National Chairman, Iyorchia Ayu, as condition for supporting Atiku.
But the former VP has made it clear that there won’t be a leadership change in the middle of the campaign and declared he had moved on. That was his way of saying he would press ahead without the support of key governors in the South-South, Southeast and North Central. Ayu, in dismissing all calls for his exit, has combatively reminded his traducers – among them some running for office – that he had the power to bring them to heel.
PDP’s troubles are not limited to the challenge of the Gang of Five. Last weekend, the chairman led a firefighting expedition to Bauchi, where a disgruntled Governor Bala Mohammed is threatening not to work for the candidate on grounds that Atiku was not disposed to his re-election bid and had sidelined him in the presidential campaign despite him being Northeast coordinator.
In states like Ogun and Delta – where Vice Presidential candidate, Ifeanyi Okowa, hails from – the party continues to battle internal divisions that won’t help its bid to reclaim power at the centre. Indeed, it is going into an election in the worst possible shape since winning the presidency in 1999.
The sense of disarray is exacerbated by the fact that whereas rebels chose to leave the party in 2015, the current class of the disgruntled are staying back to rock the boat ever so violently and publicly. Never has anti-party activity been more overt and in-your-face.
So, what can the party do about its powerful rebels? To move against them through suspension or expulsion would be an escalation of the crisis that would plunge the party into electoral catastrophe beyond the presidential race. To successfully do that would require the cooperation of ward leadership – who most certainly are under the thumbs of the governors. Over this matter, Atiku and the PDP look weak and rudderless – seemingly caught between the rock and proverbial hard place.
As for Labour Party, its much-ballyhooed third party challenge might just be so much hot air. In the Southeast where it is expected to do well, it faces increasing headwinds as the big two parties assert themselves. It’s inaugural rally in Lafia, Nasarawa State, was an underwhelming affair that exposed its true strength outside of its comfort zone.
The party’s biggest challenge is that it’s entire hopes seem to be invested in Obi’s appeal. But one man’s resources or image are not enough to win Nigeria’s presidency. That point was made last Saturday by the PDP’s campaign spokesman, Dino Melaye, who pointed out that Labour only had candidates in 30 out of 109 senatorial contests across the country. They lack the nationwide spread required to win. He then argued that a vote for Obi was a vote for the ruling party’s candidate.
Melaye’s remarks clearly hit a raw nerve. At the Arise Television Town Hall meeting next day, the Labour candidate soon found himself locked in an angry altercation with the former senator who, at best, was cast in the role of a heckler. Getting into a shouting match on television isn’t the best way would-be president’s project cool under fire.
As we draw closer to Election Day, the heat will intensify in the kitchen and contenders would begin to expose the stuff they are really made of.