Channels TV: You are not interested in who succeeds you? President Buhari: “No. Let him come whoever he is.”
Channels TV: “You don’t have favourite for 2023 … in your party?” President Buhari: “No, I wouldn’t because he would be eliminated if I mention, I better keep it secret.” – Channels TV, 5th January 2022 (as recorded).
It was in the heydays of the cherished country-wide football league in Nigeria. It was in the early eighties. One of the leading teams of that era, IICC Shooting Stars Football Club of Ibadan travelled down to be hosted by the rising Housing Corporation Football Club of Akure. The Akure Sport Stadium was jam-packed with spectators and soccer pundits. There were some beating their chests that IICC would be stopped from shooting and that the Housing Football Club would carry the day. Interesting and intriguing to this columnist were the teeming number of fans that trooped in from Ibadan to Akure and also the accompanying skillful talking drummers. As the match progressed, the talking drummers were entertaining the spectators. Eventually, there was a goal through the legendary midfield maestro, Muda Lawal (one-time best midfielder in Africa). This goal against the host, scored in the second half of the match, fueled the talking drummers into a frenetic and frenzied display. Suddenly, the talking drum sounded and many of the opposition fans from Ibadan echoed the wordings of the drums. The song from the fans, adept and adroit in interpreting talking drums, went thus: “awa ti goke odo ka fara to ja, eyin to ku ke mura” (meaning: we have climbed through the bridge before it breaks, the rest of you should prepare to do the same feat). This scenario is analogous to the situation between the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the main opposition political party, the People Democratic Party (PDP). It would be recalled that the People Democratic Party (PDP) held her presidential primary election, amidst pomp and pageantry on Saturday 28th May 2022 in Abuja. Even though observers may tag or term it as monetized or dollarized, it was transparent for the whole world to see! It was indeed an election, not a consensus contraption. However, the ruling party instead of sticking to the earlier earmarked date of 29th -30th May 2022, for her presidential primary, shifted ground, relying on the extension window favourably offered by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the election umpire.
PDP Primary: Schematically Skewed!
One well-kept secret of PDP winning presidential elections was the nationalistic outlook. It is like that is belonging to the old school of thought as the contextual charismatic young Turks have taken over the reins of the party. Aftermath of the party’s primary, the chairman of the party is from the north central while the presidential candidate hails from the north east. Yet, enshrined in the PDP’s constitution is zoning! Could this be an error or oversight or intentional to score a particular goal, possibly thinking that the best way to win the 2023 presidential election is picking the candidate from the region with maximum number of voters? Do these young Turks gauge the mood of the apparently fractious country, Nigeria, in a time like this? Do they not think of the thin fabric holding the nations within the country called Nigeria together is about giving way? The whole country watched as the incumbent Governor of Sokoto State, Rt. Hon. Aminu Tambuwal, against stipulated procedure mounted the podium for the second time to step down for the eventual winner, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar even though the runner-up, the incumbent Rivers State Governor, Chief Nyesom Wike, supported the former in the previous election. What a way of paying back camaraderie in the political arena! The end may not be in sight yet. We are waiting and watching the unfolding scenario. Any lesson to be learnt by the ruling party, APC, in what played out last Saturday aftermath of the PDP Convention?
APC presidential primary: President Buhari, you are right, but …
It was on record that before the President jetted out to Spain on a state visit, he met with the Progressive Governors’ Forum (PGF) (umbrella body of all APC Governors). There was a 12-point charge to them as a first step of his consultation with stakeholders in the ruling party. In items 7 and 10 of the charge to PGF (as published), the President was emphatic on the established internal policies that promote continuity and smooth succession which enable first term governors to pick second term tickets and also allow second term governors to pick their successors. Going this route, Mr. President enthused: “I wish to solicit the reciprocity and support of the Governors and other stakeholders in picking my successor, who would fly the flag of our party for election into the office of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in 2023.” Whilst no politically discerning mind within Nigeria’s context should fault the President tinkering especially in our nascent democracy, the timing is both odd and ominous for the ruling party especially coming on the heels of success recorded by the PDP at her presidential primary which jettisoned the controversial consensus contraption! This was the stand and stake of this columnist in the edition of the “Followership Challenge” published in the Nation newspaper of Sunday 22nd May 2022. This is an excerpt from the piece: “. . .the timing for the adoption or adaptation of consensus option in a presidential race is too close for comfort for the ruling party. The interview with Channels TV seemingly gave the President away as having a preferred candidate.” The President and his close confidants, often referred to by certain iconoclastic critics as cabals, definitely miss the political planning, permutation and programming in this context. In virtually all cases that Mr. President referred to, especially of the governors, there is a covert or overt signal to the politically discerning mind of the direction of who the crowns fit, possibly a year or so before the primary elections! In the aforementioned Channel TV interview that was conducted early January 2022, President Buhari, when asked whether he has a successor in mind, stated inter alia: “No, I wouldn’t because he would be eliminated if I mention, I better keep it secret.” It is apparently illogical and irrational, politically pontificating, to expect to keep the party’s cohesion and simultaneously hold to power at the centre with less than a few days to the party’s convention, and yet no political signal of where Mr. President is heading! Are the close confidants of the man in the saddle thinking of the humongous resources that aspirants have pumped in and are still pouring into this jamboree that had been apparently decided before the whistle is blown for the commencement of this seeming politico- melodrama synonymous with the running of the National Working Committee of the ruling party, APC?
APC: It is not too late!
It is widely stated in Yoruba common parlance: “aja to ma sonu, ko ni gbo fere olode” (meaning: the dog that will get lost, will not hear the whistle of the hunter). I hope this will not be the lot of the APC as it was the portion of PDP pre-2015 election that caused unexpected disaffection and subsequent implosion within the once acclaimed largest political party in Africa that once pompously posited holding unto power for 60 years! Then, it was the gain of the APC as many disgruntled elements of the PDP en masse aligned with the APC as the new-PDP (nPDP). It is obvious that with the emergence of the ubiquitous Atiku Abubakar, suave and savvy politician, laid and loaded with gargantuan war chest to prosecute the coming presidential election, APC could as well be singing her nunc dimittis of continuity and prepare to surrender the keys to the gates of Aso Rock if any candidate is foisted on the party at a crucial time like this in the country. There are some pertinent and purposeful posers in this context: What are the qualities expected of this candidate? Is the President considering a power shift to the south as he will be in the saddle for eight years come 29th May 2023? Does Mr. President really want a consensus candidate that the major stakeholders would unanimously choose? How would the aggrieved party members who had expended time and resources to this cause be pacified in moving the party forward to winning a major election? Or, will he, at a dying minute, after seeing the stakeholders’ inability to fixate on a consensus candidate, open up on his “best kept secret” of a candidate? The last question would seemingly be answered by the President working from his script as the right response is already known by him and possibly his close confidants. Whilst keeping fingers crossed, we, followers, are waiting and watching keenly, with interests and intrigues, at unfolding political drama in the ruling party which is whimsically strange to all previous political prognostications, permutations and projections.
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Ekundayo, Ph.D. can be reached via 08155262360 (SMS only) and drjmoekundayo@hotmail.com