Emmanuel Oladesu
What are the gains of the lockdown in Lagos, Ogun and Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT)? Is there any lesson states that have not locked down can learn from the three component units?
Many Nigerians resident in those two states and Abuja only focus on the constraints: ‘no job, no money, no movement, no food, no visitation, the palliatives are not getting to us, we are suffering, when would it end?.’
If there is no lockdown, would Nigeria not have recorded more Covid-19 cases? Would the fatality not have risen beyond this level?
Besides, only few states are yet to record Coronavirus. With 27 of 36 states under the yoke of pestilence, is a national lockdown not even imminent? Is the current situation not making it compelling?
The last two weeks have been more challenging to federal and state governments. Curiously, the reason for the stay-at-home order is still being brushed aside by protesting citizens and other agitators, including hoodlums, who in the process of invading communities and terrorising innocent people, put social distancing in abeyance. Thus, in terms of the projected results, there is a huge gap between expectation and reality.
The lockdown rule is a subject of debate. Some armchair critics continue to oppose it without justification. But, is it not better to lockdown temporarily, even for few months, than to be permanently locked down in the grave, as the Covid-19 pandemic continues to threaten humanity?
Barely a month ago, the World Health Organisation (WHO) sounded a note of warning to Africa. It painted a picture of gloom for the ‘black continent.’ The global body, in what it described as a worst scenario, raised the alarm that 300,000 may be affected by the virus on the continent, unless drastic measures were taken by governments.
Apart from testing and treatment, two preventive measures are key. The first is the stay-at-home directive. The second is social distancing. Africans and indeed, Nigerians have perceived these precautionary measures as burden; an impossibility, unnatural and strange.
WHO may have assessed the vulnerability of the African countries in the face of their poor health sector, soaring poverty, squalor and general level of development when it shifted its focus to Africa. The third world now has the additional burden of sharing a novel and highly contagious, destructive global disease, which it has neither the resources and appropriate attitude to tackle, thereby worsening its pre-existing predicaments of ignorance, povery, want, political retardation and economic progression.
The WHO’s prediction has implication for Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa. Five of 10 living Africans are Nigerians. Its population is huge. But, its level of preparation for health emergency is always grossly inadequate. When the virus had not landed in Abuja and Lagos, federal health authorities exuded a deceptive bravado. They built castles in the air, unmindful of the looming disaster. As the anti-Covid war has shown so far, a state like Lagos would be seen to have demonstrated more readiness and capacities than the Federal Government, judging by the pro-active steps taken by the Incident Commander, Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, and his team. It was in recognition of Lagos approach that made President Muhammadu Buhari to quickly lend a N10 billion support for the fight in the epic centre in national interest.
Nigeria had delayed the lockdown, despite the compelling reasons for the initial preventive action. It was akin to building on the fundamental mistake of not shutting down foreign and domestic flight operations at the airports until the viruses were massively imported to the country.
Few hours after Prof. Ajayi Boroffice, a senator from Ondo North, who just returned from South Africa, drew attention to the omission, anomaly and reluctance to shut down the airports, Nigeria had its first index case in Ogun. An Italan returning to his base in the Gateway State and Lagos became the innocent vehicle for the initial spread.
What is striking is that whenever the curve goes up, it takes time for it to flatten. Yet, the cost of prevention is cheaper than the cost of treatment and agony of cure.
On March 22, President Muhammadu Buhari directed that the two contiguous states of Lagos and Ogun, and FCT should lock down for an initial two weeks. Cries of despondency by citizens filled the air. But, government knew that the step was necessary because prevention is always better than cure.
In embarking of the decision, government was conscious of the cloud of uncertainty and the danger ahead. If the pattern of transmission is not halted, how far can the testing centres go? Also, can the treatment centres cope with the increasing number of patients? Should government pretend as if the situation is not grave enough until corpes begin to litter the streets?
However, after the expiration of the two-week selective lock down, which was not totally obeyed by Lagosians, reality dawned on the Commander-In-Chief that the move did not stem the tide. The number of infected persons had risen from 131 to 343. From 121 active cases, the number jumped to 242 within two weeks nationwide. In Lagos, the epic centre, the active cases rose from 81 to 189.
Does the figures suggest a failure of sensitisation and enlightenment programmes in the affected states? Does it also mean that the lockdown was totally in vain, unnecessary and an over-kill driven by unfounded apprehension?
Amid the anxiety, there were cheering news too, reinforcing the fact that hope was not dimmed. As at March 30, the beginning of the first lockdown, only two fatalities were recorded while eight patients recovered. On Monday night when President Buhari extended the lockdown, 10 had died and 91 recovered from the dreaded disease. The defense mechanism of either rationalisation or attribution was that the mortality was driven by underlying ailments.
However, the situation has worsened since then. As at yesterday morning, the cases jumped to 981; 753 active cases, 197 recovered, 31 deaths. What Nigeria feared most had come upon her.Tragically, community transmission could not be averted, although the government, medical experts and discerning people saw it coming. It is evident that the country is gradually sliding into panic as the figures seem to be rising in alarming proportion. It is indeed, frightening, particularly now in the North.
The demography is not known, based on the criterion of socio-economic status. In the beginning, Covid-19 was an ailment that was peculiar to the rich; the elite; who imported it from the western world. Now, it is a disease of the rich and the poor. Returnees from Ivory Coast, Togo and Benin Republic who tested positive in Lagos and Osun states are not big people. Many who are battling to survive after contacting the disease in Kano are largely commoners.
The poor is limited by their poverty and ignorance, making them to evade proper testing and treatment, and preferring the crude herbal treatment by quacks. Although Covid infection has not attracted stigmatisation, suspected carriers are shunning testing centres. In the North, like the South, the challenge of contact tracing is generally compounded by irrational behaviours.
According to the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), Coronavirus had expanded its coast to more states during the week. The disease has become a leveller. No geo-political zone is insulated. Worrisome is the report that health on the frontlines are being infected, a fact that may affect morale. Nigeria is locked in despair. The lack of vaccines and known cure may predispose some people to patronise ‘trial and error’ medical quacks in remote communities who may compound the already grave situation.
The fear of the likely extension of the lockdown may have further provoked hurried migration from the epic centre to other states. The disobedience to the lockdown is costly. It is aiding inter-state spread. The major challenge in Lagos is that the lockdown order has been largely violated in the suburbs. Government is trying to arrest the trend. But, many Lagos residents have now resorted to night journeys from Lagos to other states, thereby carrying the viruses to their new destinations. The so-called security posts mounted by the police and soldiers have failed to prevent the inter-state movement.
Trailer-loads of ‘migrants from Lagos to the North escaped the prying eyes of security agents in the South. They could only be intercepted in Nasarawa and Plateau states. Nassrawa Governor Abdullahi Sule was in a bad mood as he relayed to the anxious nation on Tuesday that five of those who were intercepted jumped into the bush on their way to the testing centre in Plateau State. Their Covid status could not ascertained.
On getting to the centre, 13 others ran away into the bush. No doubt, they would have resurfaced in some communities.
Alarmed at the way people had taken the emergency with levity, Southwest governors, who sensed that new cases in their domains came from Lagos, met and agreed to police their borders. They still rely on police to enforce the border closure. But, the states are also felling big trees in the Savannah Southwest to block border roads to prevent movement of vehicles.
Ondo State Governor Rotimi Akeredolu (SAN) cried out that the rate of community transmission was worrisome. His Kaduna State counterpart, Mallam Nosiru el-Rufai, who had just recovered from Covid-19, retorted: “We are in dangerous times.” Worried by the pattern of infection, Governor Sanwo-Olu is making plans for the distribution of masks to millions of Lagosians to contain the spread. The move may be back by a sort of law. Governor Abdullahi Ganduje of Kano State is helpless. He has urged the Federal Government to come to his rescue as the virus continue to ravage the highly populated state. Last week, Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike flexed muscles with the Federal Government over a flight to Port-Harcourt, the state capital. The 36 governors are united by morbid fear.
The raging trouble was the baseline for the collective resolution by 36 governors to enforce inter-state lockdown for, at least, two weeks to check further inter-state transmission and community spread. This may also be a prelude for further action by the Federal Government after a realistic assessment of the Covid situation.
The extended lockdown will expire in two days time. What next before or after the expiration?
If the cases continue to rise in more frightening proportions, can the lockdown extension be averted?
If the curve does not flatten nationwide, would a national lockdown not become plausible, rational and logical?
But, lockdown extension should have human face, human heart and milk of human kindness. In keeping Coronavirus at bay, government should consider public complaints about hunger virus by increasing their commitment and fidelity to the various intervention programmes, particularly the distribution of palliatives to the vulnerable members of the society.
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