Sanya Oni
Most Nigerians have probably heard it said, again and again, that the world will not remain the same after the current pandemic.
Indeed, such has been the vast destruction and disruption wrought by the tiny virus said to measure some twenty-something kilobases in length that even the advanced industrial economies have not in any realistic sense begun to figure out a fitting response to its varied challenges.
With the miracle vaccine still very much far from the horizon amidst the fog created by the obsession with serendipities by the likes of Donald Trump (with his hydroxychloroquine and disinfectant therapies), matched by an equally aggressive pushback by the scientific community; those dubbing our home-grown efforts as “cut and paste” would appear not only uncharitable but unfair in their characterisation the heroic efforts of Covid-19 managers at a difficult time.
However, with the lockdown now in the fourth week, and with no meaningful signs of the curve flattening, there has, naturally begun, the debate as to whether the recommended therapy isn’t in fact proving to be worse than the ailment.
For if the whole of idea of lockdown is to prevent the spread of the virus, Nigerians’ overall understanding of the need for compliance, as indeed of the other elements such as the need for social distancing to limit the spread, the requirement for isolation where infections have already taken place, treatment and the management of the entire gamut, has been to put it mildly, suspect.
What do we now know?
As they say, we know only in part. That part of course includes the 981 Nigerians tested in a country of 200 million; the 1000 patients confirmed positive of which some 31 have died by weekend. And just when Nigerians, merely by the slow pace of testing after the month-long lockdown, have begun to wonder aloud whether the folks at the NCDC may have been administering a wrong therapy, we are finally hearing – thanks to the private sector task force, Coalition Against Covid-19 (CACOVID) – that things are about to change.
That some 250,000 test kits, 10 new PCR machines and 150,000 extractor kits are either in or already on the way!
Which means that the country might, in the coming weeks, be able to ramp up testing in the final push to flatten the infection curve while waiting like the rest of the world, for the miracle vaccine which even the leading experts in the field have long concluded won’t even happen until mid-next year!
So, what happens in between?
That of course is the big question.
First, it seems unlikely that Nigerians would stomach any further extension of the lockdown – which is a shame really considering that the infection rate is yet to hit the so-called plateau, which means that the worse is still far from being behind us.
Call the situation one of a Catch -22; the few that are appreciative of the dilemma facing the government have grown weary of being kept behind the shutters when very little testing is actually going on; the other – the majority – mostly the urban poor, hemmed in by the biting hunger occasioned by the lockdown, have long framed their situation as one of an unenviable choice between death by corona virus or by hunger!
For the Buhari administration, getting Nigerians back to work – and urgently too – has since become a task that must be done!
Secondly, the scope and complexities of the current problems are such that require fresh thinking –away from the narrow prescriptive policies which although comes highly recommended by our so-called development partners and global financiers, have little practical relevance to our current situation.
Already, we are seeing changes in the world of work on a scale that would have been deemed inconceivable only a few months ago.
The same with the traditional webs of social relations as we knew it; these are being altered on a confounding scale. And all of these in addition to the unprecedented disruption of the global logistics and supply chain that has now thrown the global economy into turmoil.
From the raw materials or manufactured goods (including critical goods like pharmaceuticals and medicines) that cannot be delivered as a result of the lockdowns, to restrictions or outright stoppage of international air travel, the global shipping sector forced to cut back as a result of vessels being placed under quarantine before being allowed sail into the dock.
Imagine in our case – the lethal combination – a country already in the throes of multiple underlying conditions now caught up in the wave of Covid-19 global infestation!
Today, perhaps more than ever is the need to address in a comprehensive sense, those disparate elements which over time have not only compounded our vulnerabilities but have revealed our policy wonks as thinking less than strategically!
Has anybody bothered to think through the implications of another month-long global lockdown on domestic supplies, say for instance, of vital medicines or even industrial spares?
Since we are in a season of ‘cut and paste’, why not borrow from the example of the United States where the appointment of Navy Rear Admiral John Polowczyk, Pentagon’s top brass as logistics czar is not only making a world of difference to the work of the task force on corona virus pandemic, but also underscoring the imperative of harnessing supply chain a time the world has to contend with global shortages in vital raw materials and critical goods.
Again, has anyone yet figured out the potential crisis lying ahead in the event of failure to take urgent steps in this regard? And if I may ask, what would it take to come up with broad, multi-sectoral but coherent strategies to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on the economy?
The issue, to be sure, goes beyond the perennial song of acknowledging the difficulties; it is about clear-headed initiatives to clear the wreck and to get the economy up and running in the aftermath.
Finally, my colleague, Segun Ayobolu had in his column on Saturday addressed the matter quite succinctly. While pressing the case for the relevance for Keynesianism at this time, he quoted the South African political scientist, Lwazi Siyabomga Lushba as making the point that “in stagnant economies afflicted by low levels of aggregate demand, governments can trigger the economy through expansionary economic, particularly fiscal and monetary policies.
This they can do by increasing government expenditure, cutting taxes or lowering interest rates, thus leaving consumers with more disposable income and encouraging borrowing for investment”.
Of course, the logic is simple: while heavy spending offers no guarantee that the country will sooner be out of trouble; not doing so will guarantee her a dark long night in recession.
You ask where the money will come from?
Since when has sovereignty meant anything less than the full right and power of a governing body over itself, without any interference from outside sources or bodies?
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