“Let me start by stating the fact that we did make a provision in the 2022 budget for fuel subsidy from January to June. And that suggests that from July there would be no fuel subsidy. This provision was made sequel to the passage of the Petroleum Industry Act that has made a provision that all products will be deregulated. Subsequent to the passage of the Act, we went back and amended the Fiscal Framework that was submitted to the National Assembly to incorporate this demand, but after the budget was passed, we have had consultations with a number of stakeholders”. “It became clear that the timing is problematic, that practically, there is still heightened inflation, and also removal of subsidy will further worsen the situation, thereby, imposing more difficulties on the citizens, and Mr. President clearly does not want to do that”.
That was Finance minister, Mrs Zainab Ahmed in an address to some senate leaders on Monday, 24 January, 2022.
When exactly, between the passage of the budget, and the NEC recommendation of an increase in the pump price of petrol from N162 to N302 on Thursday, 20 January, 2022 was Mrs Ahmed’s so – called consultation with stakeholders at which government made it clear to them “that the timing is problematic and that there is still heightened inflation”? Was a powerful body like NEC, headed by the Vice- President not briefed before it took that decision and what about the duo of Nasarawa state governor Abdullahi Sule, and his Edo state counterpart, Godwin Obaseki who, on the same 20 January, 2022 announced at a press conference that subsidy will end in June from when NNPC would commence running an industry in which prices of all products would be deregulated? Are we being told that it Is too much for government to honestly own up that as a result of Nigerians’ total refusal, as demonstrated by Labour, to be taken back to purgatory, to something akin to a second slavery, that they are making a U- turn, or simply that on a second thought, they remember that President Buhari does not like “imposing more difficulties on the citizenry”, as Mrs Ahmed put it?
How thankful we all would have been to a listening government!
Back then to the issue at hand. How “subtle and easy”, to quote Malam Melee Kyari of NNPC, is increasing the price of petrol from N162 to an extra ordinarily steep N340? Shouldn’t these people, for once, have the milk of human kindness? Could he have forgotten that many state governors have not yet commenced payment of the miserable N30,000 minimum wage, or that many of those who actually did are now owing a backlog of salaries? That is not to talk of millions of Nigerians who do not know where the next meal will come from or our horde of unemployed youth daily paving the streets in search of fast diminishing jobs, and who return home to their parents who cannot remember when last their pensions were paid? Nigerians have everything to thank Labour for, or how else came this epiphany, this ‘Pauline conversion’, on the part of the Buhari government?
The real leitmotif for this article is what I think should now happen, going forward, Labour having literally put a gun to government’s head to make it beat a retreat. It should, however, realise that it is not yet Uhuru as 18 months, far though it seems, would soon be here on us. The following are my views. First and foremost, Labour leaders must learn from history. They must know that even though the President may loathe imposing difficulties on Nigerians, one cannot say the same thing for his officials who are always eager to have the last laugh on every matter. They should cast their minds back, and see, the Labour minister, huffing, and puffing, talking down to labour leaders as he did, severally, during the last doctors’ strike. That is Dr Chris Ngige’s style, always turning the most genial of labour leaders, belligerent. But far more than from the doctors’ strike, NLC should benefit from a good study of the long running, literally, unending, ASUU/ FGN face-offs. That should provide them a very useful teaching curve which will help them know why they cannot yet go to sleep until the 18 months promised by government is over. In the heat of the moment, given Labour’s resoluteness, I know that government will rapidly run to the National Assembly with a revised budget, as well as remit to it, the required amendments to the PIA since the NNPC is fast being turned to a battering ram. Both actions are, however, in the short run, and higher prices for crude in the international market, as seems most likely going by happenings around the world, could see the budgeted additional N3 trillion absolutely insufficient as a result of which government could wish to radically change course. With that possibility in mind, Labour cannot foreclose the possibility of government springing surprises.
Mrs Ahmed made some other promises, namely: “deploying an alternative to petrol and increasing the country’s refining capacity”. This is where I urge labour to show understanding and appreciate that the Buhari government did not cause, but rather, inherited this problem. At the very worst, were the Obasanjo government a little more focused, nipping the crisis in the bud should have been one of its topmost priorities. Indeed, the money spent plotting the Third Term project would most probably have been enough, at that point in time, to fix some of our now completely moribund refineries. In fact, were that government a little less sold on its Breton Wood advisors, a brand new refinery should have been built, thereby completely eliminating, a priori, this mother of our national problems. Labour cannot, however, be serious about its suggestion to state governors that government should stop fuel importation. It is simply a nonstarter.
It is fascinating that Labour has agreed to continue to engage with government on the critical issues of ensuring local refining of petroleum products, creation of sustainable jobs and provision of petrol at an affordable price for Nigerians. To the above, I will like to suggest the following for government consideration. It may, at first look irrational, even unthinkable, but on a deeper reflection, given our desperate circumstances, the reasonableness will shine through.
Let government suspend further work, and expenditure, on railway infrastructure procurement, important though it is, as stopping it, temporarily for some two years, cannot cause the same amount of socio- economic dislocation which withdrawal of oil subsidy can, and will definitely cause, if and when, it finally happens. It needs no robotic science to know that with the level of insecurity currently devouring the country, we dare not add another that will be more ramifying than even banditry, given that an oil subsidy removal crisis will affect all parts of the country. Such a crisis, God forbid, can completely erase everything President Buhari has done in his entire two terms. It could, indeed, become all that the Buhari years will be remembered for because although the French Revolution was caused by a multitude of grievances, some even more complicated than the price of bread, it is credited, by many, to bread shortages which stoked anger toward the French monarchy. President Buhari must, therefore, recalibrate his priorities, and choose between building rail lines, where he has already earned himself a gold medal, and avoiding a cataclysmic crisis that can erase his achievements. If in doubt, let government commission a referendum.
The President must also pay no attention to the likes of Governor Godwin Obaseki who contends that not stopping subsidy now amounts to throwing away N3 trillion. Nigerians know what those like him hold dear.
I am relying, for this proposal, on the Economic Outlook report by Augusto & Co which confirmed: “that six months’ forex inflows are enough to liquidate all of Nigeria’s foreign debts. According to the CBN, “Nigeria is spending 40% of its foreign exchange on the importation of petroleum products” and that, it says, “is what is crippling the Naira”. Properly re- negotiated, therefore, the unspent portion of the existing Chinese loan could be turned into giving Nigeria four first rate refineries, all within two years and thereby comprehensively take us out of the slavery of fuel importation by which we not only deplete our foreign exchange earnings, develop the economy of other nations and, additionally, rob millions of our youth of jobs as well as their future. I doubt if any Nigerian, unfortunate enough to have seen young Nigerians, on television, being sold into slavery in an already ravaged Libya, will ever be able to erase that ugly experience from his/her memory.
We may have got our priorities wrong, but nothing should stop us from correcting it because, doing the same thing, over and over, and expecting a different result, has no other name besides madness. I concede that, not being an economist, I may very well have put this proposal rather crudely. Let our trained economists now subject it to a rigorous study, bearing in mind the fact that Nigeria cannot afford to open another wing of insecurity besides Boko Haram, ISWAP, Banditry etc.
Should suspending the transportation infrastructure programme be considered impossible, all things considered, then the President should seek some concessionary loans to fix all our refineries. Leaving them inoperable is not an option at all. As a nation, we should not be busy treating craw craw, while leaving leprosy severely alone.