Since the return of civilian rule in 1999, the journey to 2023 governorship election is the dullest. Analysts say this is no thanks to a disjointed opposition and Governor Seyi Makinde’s populist style of governance. Aside the national excitement that gripped Nigerians over the return of democracy in 1999, the journey to the governorship election in Oyo State was marked with exciting suspense on who would win the election between the defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidates. Both parties were strong, and also fielded strong candidates, two factors that triggered deep interest among stakeholders and the mass of the people. AD’s Lam Adesina won the election.
Subsequently, gripping intrigues defined the journey to 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2019 governorship elections. Opposition parties employed all the strategies and tacts they could gather; at times, they coalesced to present a formidable force against the governing party, even when they belonged to different school of politics. Sometimes they won, sometimes they lost. The intrigues and brickbats drew the attention and interest of many residents which made them hop onto the political vehicle to join others as passive participants. The state shook from Ibarapa to Ogbomoso, and from Saki to Ibadan. Every resident monitored developments on governorship elections with the candidates making fame to higher degree.
But the journey to next year governorship election in the state been nothing near interesting. The governing PDP under the leadership of Governor Makinde is more than peaceful since the opposition APC and smaller parties are too disunited to analyze, criticize and offer better alternatives to Makinde’s policies.
APC and its unending internal wrangling
In the APC, the tendencies remain strong-footed, unyielding to reconciliatory efforts to build a united party. Those who came together to oppose the late governor Abiola Ajimobi under the umbrella of the Unity Forum in 2018 are keeping the forum alive. They still see themselves as the landlords while most of those who originally decamped from the PDP have now adopted Sen. Teslim Folarin as their leader. Folarin joined the party in 2018 and won the Oyo Central Senatorial seat for the third time in the 2019 election. He was the PDP governorship candidate in the 2015 election.
The scheming that characterized the reign of Mai Mala Buni as the Chairman, Extraordinary Convention Committee threw up Sen. Folarin as the new leader of the party. Most members of Unity Forum and non-aligned forces, who have been progressives all or most of their lives, are leaving no stone unturned to prevent Folarin from becoming the party’s authentic leader. But the latter has been winning. His faction produced the current state executive under the chairmanship of Hon. Isaac Omodewu.
Members of Unity Forum, who are believed to be in the vast majority in the party, shunned the congress that produced the Omodewu-led state executive. The forum and other members who joined forces with it, swore in its own state executive on March 24, two days before the party’s national convention which held in Abuja.
Its faction consists of most former and current elected National and State Assembly members, Federal Government appointees and renowned party leaders. Its state executive is led by the famous progressive politician Pa Abu Gbadamosi.
The internal wrangling has torn the party apart since 2018 and all efforts to bring the factions together have yielded no result. The crisis has affected the party’s ability to offer expected opposition to Makinde’s administration thereby making the governor and his party enjoy a field day both in politics and governance.
The aspirants
Though Folarin’s efforts are targeted at picking the governorship ticket of the party in 2023, internal forces against him constitute a bigger challenge to his governorship dream. His winner-takes-all approach has been frustrating reconciliatory efforts while the Gbadamosi faction has lost in the power play. It is only struggling to regain official power from Folarin’s camp.
In Gbadamosi’s camp are three prominent governorship aspirants – Chief Bayo Adelabu, Chief Adeniyi Akintola (SAN) and Sen. Fatai Buhari – while a non-aligned aspirant, Abisoye Fagade, is playing his own card to gain advantage over others in ways that are strategic.
While Adelabu was the party’s governorship candidate in the 2019 election, Buhari is a former House of Representative member and two times senator. Fagade is a successful integrated marketing consultant.
A long time progressive politician Chief Adeniyi Akintola (SAN) is also fighting hard to realize his governorship ambition this time. He stood down for Adelabu in the 2019 election having been favoured by party leaders.
It is not clear if Chief Bayo Shittu, will recontest this time. He has been contesting for the position since 2011. Shittu was the Minister of Communication during President Muhammadu Buhari’s first term in office. He was an aspirant for the position of National Secretary of the party in the March 26 convention. He stood down for Sen. Iyiola Omisore who emerged as the consensus candidate.
The confusion in the APC as at this time that election is near casts a dark shadow over APC’s chances in winning the next year governorship election in the state.
Makinde’s populism
Governor Seyi Makinde rode on the crest of the late governor Abiola Ajimobi’s rejection to win in 2019. He was a product of a coalition of opposition forces who were bent of defeating APC because of Ajimobi. Politicians in the state had succeeded in casting Ajimobi’s personality and policies as anti-people. The economic recession of 2015-2016 added to his administration’s woes as it struggled to pay workers salaries and pensions. In the end, aggrieved APC members worked with opposition forces to defeat the APC governorship candidate, Bayo Adelabu, in the election.
On assumption of office, a smart Makinde has deliberately addressed the perceived failures of his predecessor both in policies and personal idiosyncrasy. He made payment of salaries and pension the topmost priority, making workers and pensioners smile to the bank on 25th of every month.
He restored full payment of subvention to tertiary institutions which enables them pay salaries regularly. He successfully took over the Ladoke Akintola University of Technology (LAUTECH) as sole owner to end the perennial crisis that almost grounded it.
Besides, Makinde picks his words when addressing the public to prevent falling into the same ditch like his predecessor. All these make people look away from his foibles and errors in policies and approaches to governance. The implication of the reality in the two political parties is that Makinde is still clearly the candidate to beat in the next election as the APC struggles to produce a strong candidate.