“I don’t have any anointed candidate for 2023. Work very hard to win the ticket …” – President Buhari speaks from the Federal Executive Meeting (FEC) meeting of 13th April 2023.
In a particular hamlet, the oracle spoke regarding two men, who were incidentally friends and contemporaries that either of them would emerge as the king in the future while the other one unfortunately would end up a servant. The one that was favoured by the oracle to become king beat his chest confidently and changed his lifestyle forthwith. He was already living as a king with people swarming around him and he in turn expended his resources in extravagant and exuberant riotous living. On the other hand, his friend that oracle did not favour relocated to another hamlet and changed his lifestyle. Getting to the new location, he decided and disciplined himself to ensure poverty was a forgotten phenomenon in his life and family. He decided to invest in a large acreage of farming applying a great knack of decision, discipline, diligence and dedication. Within a few years, he emerged the wealthiest farmer in the whole hamlet. Traditionally, his place of abode normally picks the wealthiest farmer as the de facto king of the hamlet. He was summoned and surprisingly crowned king. Simultaneously, his contemporary and colleague who had the oracle’s endorsement had gone bankrupt and in the process of salvaging the pieces of his life together had to resort to eking out a living through serving another wealthy farmer in the same hamlet where he grew up! It was a shameful and subjugating experience for him. What is the import of this story to the present political conundrum of consensus threatening the well – being and wellness of the two most popular political parties – APC and PDP?
2023: Leadership Conundrum
Presently, there are eighteen (18) political parties in Nigeria. Taking cognizance of findings of research of past elections conducted from 1999 till 2019, it has been discovered that the president always emerged from either of the two most popular parties. It has been the norm in the 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2019 elections. It will be seemingly situated come 2023. In essence, the President of Nigeria, all things remaining the same from now till the time of the election early next year, will either emerge from the presidential candidate of APC or PDP. It is therefore imperative for followers to be involved in the issues relating to the process, procedure and policy guiding who will emerge on the platforms of these two parties as the candidate of either of them will eventually lead this country. It is as sacrosanct as simply and succinctly stated in this piece!
The duo of this columnist and Professor Vincent Anigbogu of Institute National Transformation were involved in a discourse tagged “The Leadership Question” on Channels TV, Sunrise on Saturday 9th April 2022. It was surmised that Nigeria’s political space has been largely bestridden by political gladiators who were mostly not prepared or envisioned to lead. In fact, many of them were not even passionate about taking over the batons of leadership when few “owners of Nigeria” (apology to Chief Dele Momodu) beckoned on them to prepare to sit on the saddle. In essence, over the years, even after the many military incursions and interregnums, many of our leaders were thrusted on the country by few powerful personalities and principalities, some of which are resident in Ota, Minna, Ibadan, Kaduna, Kano, Enugu, etc. Is anybody still wondering why over the years Nigeria has been apparently ruled and ruined by accidental governors and presidents? It is high time the teeming millions of followers, in this season of democracy, woke up the sleeping giants within them, and take their positions in national politics and politicking. In this context, this columnist shifts the blame largely on the elites among the followers. The elites are enlightened and educated but unfortunately most of them are diametrically ignorant and docile in political education. They should eat humble pie and be ready to be educated. This is the reason that politicians court and mobilize artisans, traders, okada riders, maruwa riders, commercial drivers, market men and women, etc. Take it or leave, these set of people understand the game and they play it with the politicians in a win – win scenario. However, the context is changing with churches, mosques and traditional worshippers urging their members to fully partake in politics. This columnist was watching the revered Daddy GO, Pastor Enoch Adejare Adeboye. He was passionate recently in a global telecast to his church members responding unapologetically to those opposing the RCCG prodding her members to take more interests in politics. The revered cleric had one cogent punch: “Witches are urging their members to participate in politics and elections, so I should not urge my people to participate? (sic)” What a poser?
2023: Candidacy and Consensus Contraption
In less than 60 days the primary elections in 18 registered political parties would have been over! It is high time Nigeria’s followers needed to wake up from slumber and seize the moment even as primary elections across party lines take place next month – May!! Whoever emerges take the flag of the party and fly it to the proper election in early 2023, be it presidential, gubernatorial, national assembly or house of assembly election!!! For now, this column will fixate on the presidency. It is knocking at the door but many are seemingly uncaring and unconcerned about the processes, procedures and personalities involved. This is the ‘real’ election before the election! Possibly, the raison d’etre of politicians referring to it as the shadow election.
As it is being mooted, both All Progressives Party (APC) and People Democratic Party (PDP), are angling for consensus candidacy, as the mode, for the primary election to choose their presidential candidates. In a political party setting: what is a consensus? In an attempt to sustain the peace and progress of a party, leaders usually resort to offering players or participants, in electoral contests or appointment to offices, equal consideration by seeking their input and concerns. Even as these leaders welcome all diversities of ideas and opinions to help the team arrive at an agreement with the aim of keeping the majority happy. In a context such as this, some of the leaders, forging a way ahead, had to forget their own dreams and desires in order for the group or party to move forward. In the two most popular parties, APC and PDP, can any discerning mind distinctly declare that the intended mode of consensus earlier applied during their convention toed this line? Will the consensus to be adopted in the coming primaries be in sync to the premise depicted here? I doubt it! It is likely going to connote slight or seeming shade of autocracy similar to the APC convention of 26th March 2022 in which President Buhari, within a few days to the convention, threw up a candidate that later expressed that a month to that convention, he (the candidate) was not aware that he would be the anointed candidate of the party! Is that a true and thorough consensus? This route should not be taken in arriving in the presidential primaries in both APC and PDP else Nigerians should prepare for an “accidental” President come 29th May 2023!
The question could be asked at this juncture: Is consensus the same as majority? Saliently and squarely put, in consensus, every opinion counts; it accounts for dissent and addresses it. Consensus does not always accommodate dissent. This is one negativity associated with the consensus mode of running elections. In a nascent democracy, such as Nigeria, indirect primary with terms and conditions, should have been adopted by the two political parties. However, how can party leaders forestall and frustrate foraging money bags hijacking the outcome to their advantage in a poverty ridden environment as ours? It is containable and doable if the political will is there! There are strategic sagacious steps that can be adopted and/or adapted to checkmate and cripple corrupting this electoral system.
Concluding Thought
It was gladdening and cheering that President Muhammadu Buhari in chairing the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting within the week stated inter alia :”I don’t have any anointed candidate for 2023. Work very hard to win the ticket …” The veracity of this statement will be tested to decipher the sincerity of the President who rhetorically was of the same body language days to the Convention of his party, APC. President Muhammadu Buhari urging aspirants to work hard to win now is a good signal towards making the race competitive. However, many observers and analysts are treading cautiously knowing that the power brokers within and around Aso Rock may come up with a last mistake calculation and conjecture that only they could conceive that could invariably change the calculus. In the course, Strategy Execution, this columnist underwent at Harvard Business School (HBS), Professor Robert Simons emphasized and wrote on the “Seven Strategy Questions.” What is germane in these questions is that they equally lead to seven implementation imperatives that are sustainable in all contexts. The last of the questions: “What are strategic uncertainties that may keep you, as the boss, awake at night (sic)? In concluding this piece, one sure point that might keep sleep away from President Buhari is: “Who will I hand over to on 29th May 2023?” On the other hand, in the PDP, it would likely be for the Chairman, Dr. Iyorchia Ayu, to wake up at night and tinkered aloud: “Who among our aspirants can wrest power and position our party as the ruling party come 29th May 2023?” There may be follow up questions. Hence, Professor Simons’ admonition and advice is for operating managers in organizations tinkering to align thus: “Everyone watches what the Boss watches.” In essence, it is sagacious for all chieftains within the ruling party, APC, to watch what President Muhammadu Buhari is watching! Peradventure, he is still looking for a sign or symbol. However, with the array of contestants and gamut of preparation of few of them in both APC and PDP, the best option to get democratically elected candidates should be through the adoption of a moderated indirect primary method that all stakeholders would adjudge as fair and square otherwise there might be concomitant consequences that may threaten the composition and configuration of both APC and PDP within the coming months. A word is enough for the wise! Time is ticking!!
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Ekundayo can be reached via 08155262360 (SMS only) and drjmoekundayo@hotmail.com