As the people of Osun State vote today to elect their next governor, pundits are of the opinion that despite the presence of 15 candidates in the race, it is actually a contest between incumbent Gboyega Oyetola of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Ademola Adeleke of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Assistant Editor ‘Dare Odufowokan and Toba Adedeji in Osogbo examine how the candidates and their parties stand.
Today, voters in Osun State are trooping out to decide who occupies Government House in Osogbo, the state capital after the expiration of the first term of the incumbent governor, Gboyega Oyetola.
The election is crucial not only because it will mark a new beginning for the politics of the state, but also because it will in a way, influence the politics of 2023, especially in the Southwest.
Observers say due to widespread interest the election has generated, a substantial percentage of the 1, 955, 657 registered voters, are expected to exercise their rights.
Days to today’s exercise, the air was still not clear about the final list of candidates to feature in the polls as litigation persisted over the candidacy of the two leading flag-bearers. While the case between Dotun Babayemi over the PDP ticket is yet to be decided, the Federal High Court in Abuja, last Thursday, dismissed a suit seeking the disqualification of Oyetola as the APC candidate.
A race between APC and PDP
Among the contenders, Oyetola and Adeleke seem to be on the advantageous side because they are running on platforms with strong political structures built over the years. Since the beginning of the current political dispensation in 1999, the two parties have been alternating the seat of power.
Today, the two old foes, Oyetola and Adeleke, are again seen as the frontline contenders in the race for the coveted seat as the two parties – APC and PDP – presented them again.
A lot of factors determined the result of the 2018 guber poll. These included protest votes against the ruling party by civil servants and other dissatisfied voters, defection of ex-Secretary to the State Government and ex-APC chair, Moshood Adeoti to Action Democratic Party (ADP), Chief Iyiola Omisore leaving the PDP for Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Fatai Akingbade leaving PDP for African Democratic Congress (ADC). All of these affected the results as the contest was tight between the two major political parties.
APC’s Oyetola
Many changes have occurred in the past four years when Oyetola took over such that some of his supporters have predicted a landslide victory for him at the poll. He has reversed some of the policies introduced by his predecessor, Rauf Aregbesola, which triggered protest votes against APC.
Among the policies are single uniform for students in the state, school reclassification, school merger, debt profile and half salary for civil servants, among others.
Similarly, Oyetola will enjoy the power of incumbency at the state and at the federal level.
In addition, the emergence of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the presidential candidate of APC is seen as a good omen for the party, given the current mass mobilization of the people of the Southwest for his aspiration.
“APC will benefit immensely from the current political mood in the state. Asiwaju Bola Tinubu is very close to Oyetola and the people of the state are happy to have a Yoruba man on the presidential ballot in 2023. This will help APC garner votes today,” Akin Ojebola, an election monitor from Vote Africa Foundation (VAF) said.
Oyetola’s performance as governor in the last four years, as well as his pedigree, is also working in his favour. In spite of very scarce resources, he is widely adjudged to have performed well in office.
He is popular with civil servants and artisans due to his numerous workers’ friendly and people-oriented programmes. Similarly, the massive acceptance he has received from various political and community leaders during the campaigns speak volumes of his chances.
But the political disagreement between the governor and his predecessor, Aregbesola, is a source of concern as the voting commences today. Some observers said with the decision of some allies of the minister to join the PDP, the election will be a tough one as Aregbesola is yet to declare his support for Oyetola.
The loyalists of Aregbesola within the party, created a caucus named The Osun Progressives (TOP) chaired by former member of the party, Lowo Adebiyi, which had been opposing Oyetola since 2021 to the point of fielding an aspirant, MoshoodAdeoti, against him during the primary. Yesterday, however, the group restated its commitment to APC.
Some leaders and members of the caucus have been declaring support for the party ahead of the poll. One of them, OladejoAfeez, recently joined Oyetola’s side. He explained that his decision was informed by the directive given to them by the Minister of Interior that they should work for APC. Afeez, who is chairman of TOP in Ede, said, “Yes, it is true that I have left TOP together with my people in Ede North Local Government. Aregbesola said we should not work against APC and we should not decamp to another party.
“Aregbesola said that we should stay in the party. I will rather stop being in politics than decamp to PDP,” he said.
Recently, former Speaker, Osun State House of Assembly, Najeem Salam, declared that he along with his supporters will support APC to deliver victory for Oyetola.
All these underground reconciliation and alignment with candidate of APC, is a good portent for the ruling party in its bid to prevail at the ballot today.
PDP’s Adeleke
Adeleke still enjoys the goodwill of his late brother and former governor of the state, Isiaka Adeleke, as well as that of his immediate elder brother, Deji Adeleke, who is the father of popular artiste, Davido. His family background, generally, is a plus for him, especially in Ede, his hometown and neighbouring communities.
Also, he is expecting sympathy and protest votes like in the 2018 election when he banked on the poor welfare that civil servants experienced during the administration of Aregbesola as part of the reasons why he should be voted for.
He is known to have a wide political structure peopled largely by leaders of the PDP in various wards and local governments. As a former senator, he is well known across the state. The opposition is hoping to improve on the feat performed by Adeleke during the governorship election in 2018 that saw him leading the candidate of the ruling party with hundreds of votes in the first ballot before he was declared loser after the run-off election.
Another thing that may work in favour of PDP and Adeleke is the agitation in some quarters that the governorship should go to Osun West senatorial district. Supporters of power rotation say it was the turn of Osun West to produce the governor in 2018.
It also remains to be seen whether the PDP’s hope of benefitting from the crisis that rocked the ruling APC over the face-off between Oyetola and Aregbesola will translate into votes.
Just like the APC, the PDP is polarised and this may prove costly. Former governor of the state, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola; PDP Board of Trustees member, Shuaib Oyedokun; Senator Olu Alabi and many elders of the party in the state are not in the same camp with the candidate of the party.
With Akin Ogunbiyi and Accord Party putting up a spirited effort, pundits are saying some traditional PDP supporters may cast their votes for the defector in protest against the treatment meted to him by PDP during the gubernatorial primary election.
The silence of the leadership of the faction opposed to Adeleke’s candidacy as well as some prominent PDP leaders across the state since after the controversies that trailed the primary election of the party remains a source of concern to stakeholders as they warn that the many unresolved disagreements may cost Adeleke and his party some erstwhile strongholds. Oyedokun had openly accused Adeleke and his camp of not encouraging reconciliation with their ‘winner takes all’ attitude.
Analysts also claim that unlike in 2018 when both Adeleke and Oyetola were fresh aspirants gunning to be given a chance to prove what they can do as governor, the APC candidate, with his modest achievements in office so far, is at advantage.
“The people have seen what Oyetola can do and they can now compare it with the performances of those before him. All they know about Adeleke are what he did as Senator as that is not enough to compare to the activities of a sitting governor,” one said.
Likely voting patterns across the LGs
The two parties will contest for votes from 1,955,657 registered voters across 3,763 polling units across the state. PDP strongholds remain Ede North and Ede South Local Government Areas. The two areas delivered 35,438 votes for the party against 11,537 votes polled by APC in 2018 governorship election. Analysts say Adeleke may still win the two council areas today given his origin and the popularity of his family name in the two LGs.
Despite this fact, APC may spring surprises in Ede. Structures were put in place by the party with the presence of ex-Speaker Adejare Bello who is an indigene of the community. He is one of their major rallying points.
Osogbo and Olorunda Local Government Areas have the highest number of voters in the state. In 2018, both were won by APC which scored 39,633 votes against PDP’s 24,349 votes. Oyetola is expected to win the councils today given his acceptance by the civil servants and pensioners who are many in the council areas. Pundits say in spite of PDP’s efforts to infiltrate the areas, APC looks good to land the majority votes today.
Similarly, APC is working assiduously to win Ayedaade and Irewole Local Government Areas and the party’s chances are buoyed by the presence of ex-Minister of Police Affairs Jelili Adesiyan, House of Representatives member TaiwoOluga, Finance Commissioner Wole Oyebamiji and Deputy Governor Benedict Alabi. However, some analysts recall that PDP won Irewole by over 3,000 votes in 2018 and may want to repeat same feat with the support of its senatorial candidate, Lere Oyewumi. The local government may be considered a battleground given the rapid growth of APC’s support base in the area.
In Boluwaduro, Atakumosa and Ifedayo local government areas which used to be the strongholds of PDP, APC is predicted to carry the day with good margins following the combining of forces between Oyetola and Omisore. In 2018, the total number of votes garnered by APC and the SDP far outnumbered the votes PDP won. Thus, Omisore’s defection to the APC may spring the magic against Adeleke this time.
But PDP is still looking strong in Obokun LGA in spite of APC’s efforts to gain ground there. Working with Omisore may also help today but it will take a lot of effort to defeat Adeleke in Obokun as he has many of his strong supporters on ground there.
However, Orolu, Ilesha West and Oriade LGAs seem to have left the grip of the PDP given the support Oyetola enjoyed in the areas ahead of today’s election. Ilesha East, according to analysts, remains a battleground with both parties looking good.
The ruling APC will ride the crest of the governor’s performances, the alliance with Omisore as well as the popularity of former governor Bisi Akande to receive more votes than the PDP in Ila, Isokan and Odo Otin LGAs.
Ejigbo, Olaoluwa, Iwo, Ayedaade and Atakumosa East are traditional strongholds of the APC. In the four local governments in Ife, APC will win convincingly with Omisore providing the needed impetus.