The Osun Gubernatorial election has come and gone. Analysts and opinion molders predicted a two-horse race between the ruling All Progressives (APC) and the People Democratic Party (PDP). Medias res, as collation and counting progressed from polling units to wards to local government areas (LGAs), they were accurate in their analysis: it was very keenly contested race between the candidate of the APC, the incumbent Governor Gboyega Oyetola and Senator Ademola Adeleke of the PDP. Aftermath of the election, there have been a potpourri of perspectives regarding the conduct of the election; how Senator Adeleke emerged as the winner while the incumbent Governor Gboyega Oyetola lost gallantly in the epoch-making election. In the final result announced by INEC, Senator Ademola Adeleke polled 403,371 votes while his closest rival scored 375,027 votes. Margin of victory of the PDP was less than 30,000 in that election. The defeat, no doubt, was an excruciating one to the ruling party in the state, the APC.
It was generally agreed by observers and Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) that the conduct of the Osun election by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) was a great improvement on the Ekiti gubernatorial election of June 2022. According to YIAGA Africa, a non-profit organization promoting democratic governance, human rights and civic engagement, INEC was rated as excelling the Ekiti performance especially in areas such as early arrivals of officials and materials at designated points; and adhoc staff of INEC performed well depicting the quality of training imparted to them before the exercise. Moreover, the deployment of technology especially the use of BIVAS for identification of voters was highly commended in the Osun election. However, YIAGA Africa rated the issue of secrecy of voters low noting that it is still a recurring matter that should be addressed in the future to further improve the credibility of the electoral system.
In this columnist appearance on TVC, INEC was highly commended as well in the conduct of the Osun election. The anchor was inquisitive of my opinion regarding the ruling party loss. In responding, this columnist pinpointed that people matter in winning elections. Expatiating further, he cited that APC either inadvertently made his members not to vote or lost their votes to the main opposition, the PDP, as a form of protest votes! It was unfortunate. How? The ruling party entered into that election with an intractable internal imbroglio. The Osun Progressives (TOP), a faction loyal to the erstwhile Governor Rauf Aregbesola, and Oyetola’s men did not see eye to eye even to the day of the election. Of course, it was apparent to discerning eyes what took place at the bases of the men who, though in the same party, were rebellious to the government of the day in Osun. The internal squabble was left to fester for so long especially with the TOP people ostracized from the party specifically in appointment into political party offices. In their perspective, they felt cheated having laboured for the victory of Oyetola in 2018 gubernatorial election in Osun. However, Oyetola’s men considered that TOP’s claim was exaggerated which was a miscalculation judging by the number of votes emerging from the polling units of belligerent party members. Even the Governor elect, Senator Ademola Adeleke, in his interview on Channels TV anchored by Seun Okinbaloye, conceded that the squabble in APC was a factor that contributed to his victory at the polls.
In the neighbouring Ekiti State, before and after the APC primary elections, there were individuals and fractious groups within the party who could not move along with the incumbent Governor Fayemi. There were serious engagements with these splinter groups and personalities. Incidentally, at a particular juncture, Dr. John Kayode Fayemi, Ekiti State Governor had to humble himself and conferred with Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, even before he emerged as the presidential party flag bearer. This singular step went a long way to calm certain frail nerves. Furthermore, Asiwaju’s acceding to come to Ekiti to openly campaign for the candidacy of Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji (BAO) was a catalyst that checkmated and crippled the acclaimed Social Democratic Party’s (SDP) covert support from Tinubu regarding the candidacy of Engr. Segun Oni. In addition, the South West Agenda for Asiwaju (SWAGA) angst against the Fayemi’s administration was seemingly doused by the open declaration of Asiwaju Tinubu and this sounded a death knell to any veiled accord between men and women of SWAGA and SDP in Ekiti State.
Was PDP left out of internal squabbles? Definitely, no. The opposition party, PDP, did two gubernatorial elections; only one was attended by national officers of PDP and INEC officials. It was that of Senator Ademola Adeleke. However, in the close up to the election, governors and top leaders in PDP made a smart, savvy and strategic move to harmonize party members to be united in going to the polls. This step pacified party members’ angst against the candidacy of Adeleke. Nevertheless, is there any technical hitch the APC could latch upon to challenge the outcome of the election at the tribunal? As at the time of going to the press, the incumbent Governor Gboyega Oyetola was reportedly gathering an array of cerebral lawyers, the number of the learned men going to 50–mostly senior men at the bar! It might be interesting and intriguing indeed as the final may not be heard yet of that gubernatorial election. In the same vein, as at the time of going to the press, the Appeal Court gave a verdict that Adeleke was the authentic candidate of the party thus validating his victory further. Will APC still head for the tribunal?
In addition, it is also good to pinpoint the results of the polls at Osogbo and Ede. It was not unexpected that Adeleke’s stronghold is Ede and the surrounding local government areas. However, the margin of defeat of the incumbent in Osogbo was unmistakably a depiction of the Oyetola imperceptible of the followers’ feelings, longings and yearnings that his administration ought to have strategized against months before the election. One main grouse of the electorate that was left unaddressed was the issue of the lingering carry over of the unpaid 30 months’ salary and pension arrears owed during the Rauf Aregbesola’s administration. It was understandable that there was paucity of funds nationally, not just in Osun State, but the aggrieved followers were not empathetically attended to in the run off to the gubernatorial election. It was a gross miscalculation considering the narrow margin of defeat of APC – less than 30, 000 votes! In a rational twist, a political affairs analyst’s tinkering is, Osun, nay Nigeria, has just lost one of her cerebral and credible Governors to the dark side of muddy cum murky water of party politics and politicking as in almost 4 years in the saddle, Oyetola did not borrow a dime unlike the incumbent Governor Charles Soludo, his Anambra counterpart, with 100 days in office pandering to the financial market for a humongous N100 billion succour! One may wonder, how was Oyetola, within the span of four years, able to pay salaries, pensions and carry out some infrastructural projects across Osun.
In my TVC appearance, another factor that shaped Adeleke’s victory was the set of new voters, mostly youths and professionals, who were seemingly expressing a desire for change having not been satisfied with the scheme of things in Osun State. Even though there was nothing significantly weighty in the manifesto of Adeleke that should warrant such an attitude from a section of the followers. In any case, that is one of the dark or down side of democracy as followers or electorates could behave irrationally at times. It is all part of democracy; hence leaders should get their ears to the ground as, in any polity, there exists certain set of followers who may collaboratively pull the rug off the feet of leaders especially in a keenly contested election such as the last Saturday election in Osun State taking cognizance of the margin of victory of the PDP’s candidate.
In concluding this piece, there is the need for the two foremost parties, the APC and PDP, to take cognizance of “lessons learnt” and feed such into the parties’ mechanism in going forward to the general elections in 2023. I could read many conclusions on the Osun election to forecast the outcome of the presidential election in 2023. This is sheer naivety! It is said by popular political pundits that “a week is a long time in politics!” In Ekiti State, APC could as well be rejoicing that the presidential poll is a done deal in favour of APC. Equally, it would be a crass display of immaturity! The real campaign starts in September 2022. There are lots of issues that would surface and stretch the candidates’ capacities, capabilities, competencies, charisma and carriage as the followers would want to perceive what they really have up their sleeves for the country. The rabble rousing on social media without paying attention to the party’s spread and structure in all the 774 local government areas would be a seeming political grandstanding and gerrymandering carried too far! In essence, real, brutal and smart work is needed for any party to emerge victorious in the presidential election of 2023 as the stakes are high considering feelings, longings and yearnings of the followers bordering on core and crucial issues such insecurity, epileptic power supply, religious tensions, dipping economy, youth restlessness as a result of mass unemployment, dilapidating health and education systems, etc.
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John Ekundayo, Ph.D. – can be reached via 08155262360 (SMS only) and drjmoekundayo@hotmail.com