Economic growth in Nigeria and across the world is set to remain robust at 3.1 per cent this year and another 3.1 per cent next year, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said yesterday in a forecast suggesting that the cartel expects healthy oil demand growth despite market fears of recession.

In its September Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) published yesterday, OPEC made no changes in its growth estimates and sounded an upbeat note about the trend of the global economy for this year.

The cartel expects the global economy to grow by 3.1 per cent both this year and next, and although it revised down its estimate of the Eurozone economy, OPEC still sees 3.1 per cent growth in the year and 1.7 per cent increase in the euro area in 2023. That’s contrary to recent forecasts from analysts and economists who expect the Eurozone and several EU member states to be plunged into recessions as early as this year due to soaring energy prices weighing on inflation, industries, and consumer sentiment.

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“Economies like India and the Euro-zone showed a strong growth dynamic in 1H22, compensating very well for the relatively – and likely temporary – weaker performance of the US and China,” OPEC said in the report.

Looking at next year, the cartel noted: “Despite the obvious downside risks, there is also upside potential to the global economic growth forecast. Fiscal measures in the EU and China support growth towards the end of the year and lead to the potential continuation of a stable dynamic in 2023.”

As a result of the expected robust economic growth, oil demand will continue to rise, especially driven by the recovery in travel and transportation, OPEC said. This is forecast to lead to robust overall growth in oil demand of 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and 2.7 million bpd in 2023, surpassing the pre-COVID-19 levels, to stand at an average 102.7 million bpd next year.