American voters were fractured politically and culturally yesterday ahead of Election Day.
They were anxious about where their country was heading — on inflation, abortion, immigration, crime, and much more.
They also sensed something more fundamental at stake at a time of rising mistrust of institutions and each other: the future of democracy.
All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for grabs, as are 35 US Senate seats and 36 governorships.
Republicans would need to pick up five seats to take a majority in the House and just one to control the Senate. Non-partisan election forecasters and polls suggest Republicans have a very strong chance of winning a House majority, with control of the Senate likely to be closer fought.
A massive wave of Republican support could lead to declarations of victory hours after polls close.
Some Americans remain hopeful, but a fretful outlook emerges from interviews with more than two dozen Democratic, Republican and unaffiliated voters before today’s midterm elections — the first since followers of former President Donald Trump tried to halt the certification of President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory.
These midterm elections are also the first since the Supreme Court took away a woman’s constitutional right to terminate a pregnancy, leaving the matter to states.
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“This election is hugely consequential,” said Edward Foley, a professor at Ohio State University who directs its election-law programme. “It’s a question of where our democracy is and how we are doing with our collective self-governance.”
Midterms are always important because a switch in control of the House or Senate can stunt the plans of a sitting president. Control of Congress could also affect various investigations into Trump, including his role in the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection.
Dozens of statewide candidates have said the 2020 election was stolen; some running for positions that validate elections have refused to say if they will certify the 2024 results. And there are already more than 100 legal challenges against this year’s election.
The United States has stood at the precipice before. Not long after Abraham Lincoln’s election in 1860, 11 states withdrew from the nation and the Civil War began.
Ultimately, Foley said, the election turns on a question: “Can we actually build the system and produce accurate, honest outcomes, and will enough people believe them?”
Brian Montes’ Mexican-born parents told him that America is “a shining city on a hill” and urged him to take his responsibility as a U.S. citizen seriously.
Montes, 21, is majoring in political science at Portland State University, and will vote this election for the second time in his life.
Montes was appalled to see election deniers attempt to overturn President Biden’s victory. For him, democracy is on the ballot this November.
“Protecting our democracy truly is … paramount. We can’t really fix climate change, we can’t, you know, help the health care system, we can’t bring relief to students across this country until we have faith in our democracy,” he said.
Montes, who is gay, also worries that political beliefs are now such a part of personal identity that it’s almost impossible to separate politics from hate.
In the past, someone on the other side of an issue simply had “a different perspective as to why or how we can better our country,” he said. “Now it’s whether or not somebody believes you have a right to be here, whether or not somebody believes you have a right to exist. And that is deeply personal.”
But as the first person in his family to vote, Montes is also optimistic in the long-term.
Tony Bergida, a 27-year-old father from the Kansas City, Kansas suburb of Olathe, said pocketbook issues carry more weight for him in this election than abortion, transgender rights or the validity of the 2020 presidential election.
Bergida, the chair of the Kansas Young Republicans, cast his ballot in advance and picked Republican Amanda Adkins over the incumbent, Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids.
Democratic ads have focused on abortion protections but the election is “really going to be the economy, first and foremost,” said Bergida, who said his grocery bill has soared over the past two years.
“The cost of living has got to be on everyone’s minds right now.”