Claim
A Twitter User @KeillerDon on January 26 wrote that there is
no increase in extreme weather.
His tweet cited two research papers and reads: “Two papers
that expose the climate scam. No increase in extreme weather.
Low climate sensitivity (0.5C) to future CO2 increases..”
The tweet, which had the abstract of two research works had
2,578 views, 24 retweets, 2 quote tweets and 49 likes.
Verification
What is Extreme Weather?
According to the United States Department of Agriculture
Climate Hubs, extreme events are occurrences of unusually
severe weather or climate conditions that can cause
devastating impacts on communities and agricultural and
natural ecosystems.
The World Economic Forum website states that extreme
weather can either be weather-related or climate-related. It
further states that weather-related extreme weather events are
shorter incidents like tornadoes, deep freezes or heat waves
while climate-related extreme weather events last longer or are
caused by a buildup of weather-related events over time such
as wildfires that occur due to prolonged drought.
Extreme weather leads to wildfires, droughts, excessive
glaciation, floods and mountain avalanches, and other natural
disasters.
Types of Extreme Weather
Drought – A drought is defined as “a period of abnormally dry
weather sufficiently prolonged for the lack of water to cause a
serious hydrologic imbalance in the affected area.”
Heat Waves – A heat wave is a stretch of unusually hot
weather that lasts for two or more days. To be viewed as a heat
wave, temperatures must be higher than the average for an
area. Heat waves occur when something like a high-pressure
system traps hot air over an area.
Hurricanes, Typhoons and Cyclones – Typhoons are tropical
cyclones in the Northwest Pacific, while a hurricane is a term
used in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern
North Pacific. In South Pacific and Indian Ocean, all storms are
classified as tropical cyclones.
Tornadoes – Tornadoes “are one of the most violent effects of
atmospheric storms”.
Wildfires – A wildfire is an unplanned and uncontrolled fire that
breaks out in a forest or other natural setting. The fire might
begin as a result of human action or a natural occurrence.
Winter Storms – Combined with wind chill, blowing snow, and
heavy snow, winter storms are life-threatening, and when it
comes with strong winds and snowfall that reduces visibility, it
is referred to as a blizzard.
Is Extreme Weather on the Increase?
An article published by National Geographic in 2012 shows that
since 1970, the average global temperature has risen by 0.9°F
(0.5°C), and this additional heat has increased severe heat
waves, drought, and other forms of extreme weather.
An article on the World Economic Forum website written in
2021 by Chloe Brimicombe, Elliott Sainsbury, Gabrielle Powell
and Wilson Chan showed wildfires, storms, droughts,
heatwaves and storms to be on the increase. They concluded
that “2020 was alarming, unforgettable and traumatic – and not
only because of COVID-19. Lethal natural hazards are
increasing in frequency under our changing climate, and 2020
is a testament to that.”
In 2021, it was revealed that 20 extreme weather events cost
the U.S. $145 billion making it the third-most costly year for
extreme weather in the U.S. The report also showed that the 20
weather events witnessed in 2021 surpassed the average of
roughly seven similar weather events recorded annually from
1980 to 2021. Additionally, 2021 alone accounted for over 15%
of the 310 weather events recorded over the past 41 years,
whose damage cost $1 billion.
The World Metrological Organisation (WMO) Provisional State
of the Global Climate in 2022 report shows that the last eight
years are on course to becoming the warmest on record, due to
accumulated heat and increasing greenhouse gas
concentrations. The report also reveals that there were extreme
heatwaves, drought and devastating flooding which affected
millions and cost billions. Incidents of extreme weather are
projected to increase as a result of climate change.
Data by the National Centers for Environmental Information in
its Annual 2022 Global Climate Report showed that Africa had
an annual temperature of +1.01°C (+1.82°F), which is the 10th
highest in the continent’s 113-year record. The data also
showed that 2022 marked Africa’s 46th consecutive year with
temperatures above average.
A perusal of the first research paper attached to the tweet we
are debunking showed an editor’s note dated 30 September
2022 which read, “Readers are alerted that the conclusions
reported in this manuscript are currently under dispute. The
journal is investigating the issue.”
Source: Space Technology Library
The second research paper claims that rising carbon dioxide
levels are not increasing the Earth’s temperature. This is false
as Greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide, methane,
nitrous oxides, and water vapour have caused the rise of the
Earth’s temperature due to extra heat trapped near the Earth’s
surface.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), “by adding more carbon dioxide to the
atmosphere, people are supercharging the natural greenhouse
effect and causing the global temperature to rise”. Observations
by the NOAA Global Monitoring Lab showed that “in 2021
carbon dioxide was responsible for about two-thirds of the total
heating influence of all human-produced greenhouse gases”.
Rating
False – There is an increase in extreme weather as shown by
verified government sources. The research paper was cited out
of the contest as its findings did not state that there is no
increase in weather. Also, readers of the research paper are
being alerted that the conclusions reported in the manuscript
are under dispute.
This fact-check was produced by Justina Asishana, a Journalist
with The Nation Newspaper with support from Code for Africa’s
PesaCheck and African Fact-Checking Alliance network.