Politicians are risk takers. Last weekend the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) took two calculated risks – betting the entire shop on a candidate whose quest for the presidency has been a three-decade losing streak, as well as tearing up the national compact on power sharing.
The party held its nerve to continue with its special convention hours after the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) which had repeatedly sworn the electoral timetable was inviolable, suddenly executed a U-turn to agree a six-day extension of the primaries’ deadline.
The dithering All Progressives Congress (APC) which at that point hadn’t even screened its armada of aspirants for an exercise that was barely 48 hours away, quickly embraced the extension – moving its own primaries to June 6.
It was a curious turn of events which only benefitted the ruling party. In a season laden with feverish conspiracy theories, it not only triggered questions about INEC’s neutrality, it validated suspicions that the APC’s repeated postponement of the process of picking its candidate, was because it wanted to see who the opposition chose.
People may spin this as strategic manoeuvring, but it speaks of a lack of confidence on the part of the party.
It is equally noteworthy that up till that point APC had refused to take a stand on zoning. If anything, by selling nomination forms to all-comers it had more or less adopted the PDP’s position of throwing the race open.
At the end of what has generally been acclaimed as a well-organised and transparent event the opposition, as many predicted, plumped for veteran aspirant and former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar.
Sentiments within the party favoured presenting a Northern presidential candidate notwithstanding its long-running commitment to zoning. The belief is that in Atiku PDP had a juggernaut who could mop up the region’s massive vote haul to its advantage.
It brushed aside worries about hurting Southern sensibilities by presenting another Northerner after incumbent Muhammadu Buhari would have spent eight years as present.
Now that Atiku has emerged, some voices within APC claim that the only way it can retain power is to look to the same region where Buhari comes from. But it is a fallacy to argue that the North always votes one way once there’s a Northerner on the ticket of the two main parties. A random sampling of the outcomes of past polls proves this.
In 2011, the PDP’s Goodluck Jonathan – a Southerner – trounced the trio of Muhammadu Buhari (Congress for Progressive Change – CPC), Nuhu Ribadu (Action Congress of Nigeria – ACN) and Ibrahim Shekarau (All Nigeria Peoples Party – ANPP). He polled a massive 22,495,187 votes to Buhari’s 12,214,853 votes. Ribadu managed 2,079,151, while Shekarau scored just 917,012. Jonathan out-polled all three Northern candidates who together only managed 15,211,016 compared to his 22,495,187 votes.
That’s not the entire story. He beat Buhari and the three others in following Northern states: Taraba, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kwara, Kogi, Benue, Adamawa, as well as in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
In 2003, then President Olusegun Obasanjo running as PDP flagbearer was re-elected with 24,456,140 votes against ANPP candidate Buhari’s 12,710,022 votes. Obasanjo beat his rival in the following Northern states: Adamawa, Benue, Kaduna, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Taraba, as well as the FCT.
At the historic June 12, 1993 polls, the defunct Social Democratic Party’s (SDP) Southern candidate, Moshood Abiola, scored 8,341,209 votes to defeat the National Republican Convention’s (NRC) Northern candidate, Bashir Tofa, who only managed 5,952,087 votes. Abiola broke the myth of the North’s one-way traffic by beating Tofa in the following states: Benue, Borno, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kwara, Plateau, Taraba, Yobe as well as FCT. One of the most notable results was his victory in Kano – home state of his opponent.
Another fallacy is that whatever happens in three zones that make up the South would be irrelevant in determining the outcome of the 2023 general election.
History shows that to be elected Nigeria’s president you must win a majority of votes cast as well as prevail in a zone outside of your region. Despite his impressive performance with Northern voters in several elections, Buhari only became victorious after he won the Southwest in 2015. Before then, his much-vaunted captive 12 million votes never moved him beyond the confines of Daura.
Assuming for the purpose of debate we agree that only a Northerner can win the presidency for APC now that Atiku is PDP candidate, let’s interrogate the electoral value of those from the region who are currently in the race for the ruling party’s ticket. They are Jigawa State Governor, Mohammed Badaru, Kogi State Governor, Yahaya Bello and Senate President Ahmad Lawan.
Until he became governor not many had heard of Badaru and after seven long years in office he remains an unknown quantity on the national scene. It is a measure of how much belief he has in the project he’s plunged into that after purchasing the N100 million nomination form, he’s hardly ventured anywhere to canvass support for his bid. So, what political capital would he bring to a two-cornered fight with a household name like Atiku in the North? Zilch!
Badaru heading an APC presidential ticket would sink like lead in water down South.
As for Bello, the less said about the Kogi governor’s presidential aspiration the better. Most people view his run as a vanity project going nowhere. He alone knows why he’s blowing millions because in a two-way contest, the former VP would have him for breakfast in the North. In the South, he’s just another flyweight without traction.
That leaves Lawan. He’s supposedly a serious contender if you believe those straining to sell him. The only reason he’s featuring in the calculations is because of the position he occupies. Strip him of the Senate Presidency and he becomes another charisma-deficient politician who cannot go the distance with an Atiku who, despite exiting office in 2007, continues to maintain incredible relevance across the land.
Lawan cannot win the governorship of his home state, Yobe. If he were not running for president, there’s no guarantee of his return to the Senate – especially if Governor Mai Mala Buni wanted him out of the way. He couldn’t become Senate President in 2015 – despite the APC having a majority in the chamber! He was so popular and beloved that half of the ruling party’s legislators joined forces with PDP to install Bukola Saraki in office. This is some peoples supposed Northern answer to Atiku!
If Lawan doesn’t stand a chance up North, how would he play with hostile voters down South who would want to know why they should elect him after Buhari? What answer would APC and their ‘candidate’ have to offer the electorate beyond his “Northern-ness?”
The notion that the only way APC can win is with a Northern candidate is a scam peddled by perennial defectors whose history of shamelessly crisscrossing party lines is well known. They would ditch the party within weeks of an Atiku victory.
Rather than ape the PDP, the ruling party can differentiate itself from its rival and offer voters a clear choice. The opposition has chosen to casually discard the product of decades of national political evolution on the altar of expediency. APC can be the party of inclusion by upholding power rotation.
There’s substantial anger across the South at the prospect that another Northerner could succeed Buhari. It is especially serious in the Southeast which was hopeful that its long-time ally the PDP would look its way this time. Its leaders have been aggressively seeking the ticket, arguing that the Igbo who have never been president deserved the chance. The outcome of the Abuja convention was their reply.
With Ohanaeze and others stoking the fire and warning Southeasterners not to settle for the Vice Presidency, the likes of Peter Obi didn’t wait around to be humiliated; they fled to platforms that would allow them run.
I’m not sure his Labour Party would deliver the presidency to him, but the presence of an unpredictable third force could muddy what used to a quiescent electoral fishing pond for PDP.
It is the same story up North in the pivotal state of Kano where former governor Rabiu Kwankwaso’s New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) is making a splash. Not much is known about it other than it’s becoming the gathering place of defectors who couldn’t get a ticket elsewhere.
Kwankwaso is a big factor in Kano and having joined forces with former governor and erstwhile rival Shekarau, some form of electoral fragmentation should be expected here. Who would be hurt most? Only time will tell because the two men have pulled supporters from APC and PDP.
It is in this stormy water that Atiku would be fishing as well. So, he can wake up from any dream in which he sees himself gathering three million votes here in the manner of Buhari.
PDP has made its choice and must now await the verdict of voters. APC has time to reflect and pull one over its rival. What would it profit the party if it miraculously wins the entire North and loses the whole South? They only need to look at Buhari’s history before 2015 for an answer.