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  • Europe finds its balls in Davos

    Europe finds its balls in Davos

    • By Timothy Ash

    People are asking me for big takeaways of Davos this week, beyond Ukraine, so here goes.

    Actually, after years of Davos appearing to have exhausted its use and having been the “it” place to be for global executives and power players, it had become a bit naff, smeared with an aura of being an elitist party for intellectually bankrupt globalistas.

    Trump’s Commerce secretary, Lutnick, seemed to signal that his own appearance was to read an obituary for Davos and those same global elites, but the carpet was kind of taken from under him by Trump, who seemed to want to use the same stage of global elites to announce his Peace Board. Lutnick cannot quite see the wood from the trees, and that he has long been one of the global elites, that he seems now to be whinging about. And if anything, Trump is making the world even more elitist with his bunch of cronies, sycophants, and tech bros.

    Net net, Trump breathed new life into Davos, only it became even more elitist – who, amongst even the Davos elite, could get the invite for the Trump show?

    Look and an admission here, I have been twice to Davos, this year and last, invited to speak on Ukraine, immobilized CBR assets, and Ukraine recovery. Topics close to my heart, and I thought worthy of selling my soul and making the trek to Davos. But I did not get admission to any of the other events. It’s just too expensive to hang around, hotels and restaurants are overpriced, so I commuted from Zurich, which is still pretty expensive.

    Greenland, Trump, Carney, and Zelensky were however center stage in the side discussions I had.

    On Greenland, the MAGA guys are trying to sell the eventual deal done – if it was a deal – as some huge win for Trump. The line is that Trump again read the riot act to Europe, that they are not doing enough on the NATO front, and through his tantrum over Greenland, they are now focused on Arctic security.

    Actually, I don’t see it that way at all. From what I can make out, no concessions we made to Trump, and whatever deal was done is essentially just a restatement of the existing 1951 Treaty with Denmark.

    My take is that Trump’s ego made him want the win from stealing Greenland and he thought, that with the threat from the recent successful US military operation in Venezuela, the weak Europeans would roll over. This was not about Arctic security, albeit in seizing Greenland for the US, I think Trump likely thought there was big money to be made then on various minerals deals. But this was ego – Trump planting the US flag, perhaps renaming Greenland eventually to Trumpland. It was all about Trump, as it always is. Keeping Donald on the front pages, satiating his enormous ego, above all else.

    But Trump misread Europe. He could not quite get into his head that Europe, facing an existential threat from Russia, and with a torrid history from great powers changing borders by force, that sovereignty and territorial integrity matters for Europe. This idea of great powers taking what they can is existential for Europe.

    Mark Carney summed it up in his seminal speech this week as well, as it’s all as important for Canada as for Europe. Canada does fear that after Greenland, Canada would be the next target for its southern (and northern) neighbor. Europe, I think regretted rolling over to Trump in tariffs last July with the Turnberry agreement. Europe surrendered back then, accepting a wholly unfair trade deal as the price for buying off Trump, and for what they assumed would assure the US security backstop for Europe. How wrong they were then with Trump’s push then to try to grab Greenland.

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    So the thought processes in Europe moved to what’s the point rolling over to Trump, when he screws you anyway. And if we cannot rely on the US security backstop, then why be nice to Trump and the US on tariffs et al? So the Turnberry deal was stalled, and threats then of the €93 billion tariff hit, plus the much worse ACI. I think Rutte et al also confronted Trump with the stark reality that if he took Greenland by force or coercion, NATO would be dead, and would Trump want to be the US president to take down the most successful defensive alliance in history?

    I think markets also did their thing – the Danish pension fund threatening to sell, and a German bank amplifying the risks of dollar selling ensured TACO. Trump blinked, backed down, and moved on to his next big shiny thing, the Peace Board, to shift the narrative from a humiliating defeat for Trump at the hands of the weak and feckless Europeans, even then signaled in his speech by Zelensky.

    Iran also looks set to be the next big Trump distraction, as he moves US forces from the Caribbean to the Gulf – expect another decapitation exercise which might be a little more challenging than Maduro when it comes to Khamenei. No one is focusing on the huge Trump strategic blunder in moving those forces away from the Gulf in the first place, which meant that when opposition demonstrations kicked off in Iran, US forces lacked the critical mass to respond, and thousands of demonstrators died in vain answering Trump’s call to the street and that he would protect them.

    But going back to Greenland and Davos, is NATO stronger because of all this?

    Absolutely not.

    As if Trump’s threats to steal Greenland were not enough, Trump could not help himself, his ego and mouth know no bounds. He went on then to denigrate NATO allies for never having come to the US defense, and doubting whether they would in the future.

    This was a total insult for the thousands of Europeans, and Canadians, who died answering the US call, after the triggering of NATO’s Article 5 defense after 9/11, and who died or were injured in Iraq and Afghanistan.

    Forty-odd Danes dies, over four hundred Brits, and the list goes on. What an absolute insult from bone spur Donald, pissing on their graves. If anything has damaged the core integrity of NATO, it is this.

    Imagine what the answer of European service families will be on the next 911 like event, and another US call for support? What does Trump think their answer would be? Not only did Trump not acknowledge their sacrifice, but he did not even seem to know that the only time NATO’s Article 5 response was triggered was in defense of the US. And I would argue that Russia’s attack on Ukraine, and its malign actions against Europe are a similar event, and what has the US under Trump done? He has sided with Russia, if anything, cut arms supplies and financing to Ukraine, which is the front line for Europe’s defense. And to add insult to injury, he has invited Putin to his own peace board, and now seems willing to let Putin draw down on CBR immobilized assets, which were supposed to be earmarked for Ukraine, for Putin’s membership in the Peace Board country club of autocratic leaders.

    So my take on all the above is that NATO is now fundamentally weakened by events over the past couple of weeks. And European leaders might not say it out loud, but they are looking for alternatives to the US backstop – actually, they continue to be nice, and call Trump “daddy” as they are buying time, to keep the supply of US weapons going until a time when they can break free from the US. And in the interim, they will work overtime to build an autonomous defense capability.

    Actually, on this autonomous European defense capability, Europe probably has enough capability now to defend against the one big existential threat – Russia. Imagine the combined military capabilities of the UK, France, Germany, Finland, Türkiye, Poland, the Balt, plus the Ukrainians. That is surely enough to hold off the

    Russians, without the US. And that is the future. But Europe does need to fast track arms production and the deployment of its military industrial complex to be independent of the US. It also needs to do much more to bind both Türkiye and Ukraine into the European security architecture, and that will mean concessions on EU accession – interests outweigh values at this stage, when Europe is in an existential battle for its survival.

    Notable this week the number of mainstream UK, and European military, political, and opinion leaders – even the right-wing Andrew Neil, ex-editor of the Times, questioning the US as an ally, even suggesting it as an enemy of Europe. Quite extraordinary, but a reflection of the hugely damaging actions of the Trump presidency, which has ruptured the international order and the Western alliance.

    So I think from Davos I read that Europe finally got the message – the US is no longer a reliable partner, it’s even an “enemy” if Neil is to be believed, and it needs to fast track the development of its autonomous defense capability, diversify strategic defense relationships, with Ukraine, Türkiye, the Gulf, and perhaps even with China. That was the message this week from Carney. Imagine that the US is so frustrated with what it sees as Europe’s free-riding on it for defense, that it’s bull in a China approach actually encourages a depending in ties between Europe and its own hegemonic rival, China. So, the one big winner from the week in Davos was Beijing.

    Great result, Donald Trump, see you next year!

    •             This article was originally published in www.kyivpost.com
  • 2026: Dissecting Nigeria’s boom year

    2026: Dissecting Nigeria’s boom year

    • By Omoniyi M. Akinsiju

    We recall our quick rebuttal of the International Monetary Fund’s forecast of Nigeria’s economic growth in April 2025 when it projected that the economy in 2026 would grow at a miserly 2.7 per cent.

    We were riled by that projection, which the global lender predicated on projected lower global oil prices.

    We made it clear in that statement that the Nigerian economy under the current administration had engendered a paradigm shift from perennial dependency on crude oil earnings to policy-driven economic facilitation.

    This refers to the deliberate use of governmental policies, regulations, and institutional frameworks to reduce obstacles, lower costs, and speed up economic activities, particularly in trade and investment.

     The facilitation, in this context, aims to foster sustainable, inclusive growth by improving efficiency and reducing red tape.

    Seven months after that questionable projection, we have seen a volte-face in the offensive projection. In an epiphany-like realisation, the IMF now speaks of a resurgent Nigerian economy as reflected in the global multilateral institution’s revised Nigerian economic outlook to a projected 4.4 per cent economic growth for 2026.

    This is the highest GDP growth projection by IMF over the last 17 years, a real expression of confidence in the Nigerian economy.

    Global and Domestic Consensus Around Nigeria’s Higher Growth Prospects

    Beyond the IMF’s new GDP projection, we have observed a consensus around a higher than 4 percent economic growth performance expectation of the Nigerian economy by virtually all known individual and public economic commentators. While the Nigerian Government projected 4.68 percent growth in 2026, the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) projected a massive 7 percent, 1.5 percent higher than the Nigeria Economic Summit Group’s 5.5 percent for the year. PwC sustained the conservative threshold by projecting a 4.3 percent growth conditioned on higher oil price while the World Bank also revised its earlier 3.7 percent projection to 4.4 percent.

    The agglomeration of these positive economic growth outlooks by domestic and global institutional players points to an emerging economic paradigm that emphasizes increased production and productivity momentum, foreign exchange stability, dis-inflation, galvanized foreign direct investment and inflow, and unobtrusive regulatory environment, anchored in policy-driven economic facilitation.

    Available data indicate that this emerging economic paradigm and the new policy-driven economic facilitation environment are consequences of the economic reforms conceived and implemented by the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led administration.

    2026 GDP Projection

    However, our analysis of available economic data indicates that all things being equal, the Nigerian economy will grow to a 5.5 percent threshold. This projection is based on available data and economic trends in the Nigerian economy between 2024 and 2025.

    To put things in proper context, in our January 2024 Policy Statement, after an objective analysis of the implementation of the Federal Government’s flagship reform policies headlined by the removal of fuel subsidy and liberalisation of the foreign exchange window, we declared without any doubt that Nigeria would emerge economically and socially prosperous and stronger in the medium to long term on the back of the policy reforms and other subsidiary policies devised to transform and transit the nation’s old economic order to market-driven economic management template.

    In an exemplification of our predictive analysis, we said in that Policy Statement: “From the conceptualisation and deployment of policies across multifarious sectors by the federal government, we are convinced that President Tinubu is putting in place new building blocks to serve as the bedrock of a new model for national economic growth and socio-political development.” (IMPI Policy Statement 001 issued on 30th January, 2024).

    So, for us, understanding the background to the current developments and the philosophical underpinning of the economy, we submit that the year 2026 would be Nigeria’s boom year yet.

    We did not arrive at this projection lightly.

    First, as now attested to by global and domestic economic players, the Nigerian economy has been a well-managed affair since the reforms kick-started in 2023. We commend the Federal Government for staying the course despite the initial economic headwinds. These storms were the result of the economy adapting to the hypodermic impact of the reforms.

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    Increasing Capital Acquisition by Corporates

    A major indicator of an expanding economy is the increasing capital acquisition by private sector operators. Nigerian companies, particularly in the oil, gas, telecoms, banking, industrial goods and agricultural sectors, are actively acquiring property, plant, and equipment to expand operations and strengthen market positions.

    Key 2025 transactions include MTN Nigeria Communications Plc, which topped the list with N539.6 billion, Presco Plc’s 10,000-hectare plantation acquisition in Cross River and Ellah Lakes Plc’s acquisition of over 11,700 hectares across four states, among others.

    Large-scale investments are aimed at building capacity to meet consumer demand and reduce reliance on imports. This has direct consequences on production.

    More impressively, Nigeria has moved up 15 places to 4th in Africa for foreign exchange accessibility according to the Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2025.

    FX accessibility is a major bulwark in the measure of ease and convenience of doing business especially for foreign direct investors. The country has made one of its biggest improvements over the years in terms of how easy it is for investors to get and use foreign exchange. This achievement is a result of the sweeping FX reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

    Developments in financial account also supported the overall economic outcome with Foreign Direct Investment inflows rising to $720 million in Third Quarter 2025, while portfolio investment reached $2.51 billion, reflecting a stronger non-resident participation in domestic debt and equity markets.

    We see a further rise in foreign direct investment in 2026 along with increased access to FX.

    Macroeconomic Stability and Enhanced Manufacturing Output

    Macroeconomic stability is the cornerstone of any successful effort to increase private sector development and economic growth. Cross-country regression analysis using a large sample of countries suggest that growth, investment, and productivity are positively correlated with macroeconomic stability. Macroeconomic stability exists when key economic relationships are in balance, for example, among domestic demand and output, the balance of payments, fiscal revenues and expenditure, and savings and investment. Nigeria continues to venture near this equilibrium. The impact is reflecting in the manufacturing sector amongst others. Firms that are backward integrated and better aligned with domestic input sourcing are expected to benefit immensely from the nation’s improving macroeconomic fundamentals.

    Basic to this is the fact that for Nigeria import dependent manufacturers, FX stability alone offers meaningful relief on input costs and planning certainty. In line with this, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) forecasts that the country’s manufacturing sector will grow by 3.1 percent while contribution to real GDP is expected to rise to an impressive 10.2 percent in 2026, underscoring renewed optimism in the domestic manufacturing outlook.

    These projected attainments would be accomplished through the incentives being channeled to the manufacturing sector through the new tax laws, regulatory adjustments, and the operationalisation of the National Council on Industry, Trade and Investment (NCITI) and other policy frameworks.

    CBN Re-engineering of its Operations Playbook

    The Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to re-engineer its operations’ playbook to strict orthodoxy has signaled increased optimism with exchange rate stability and the prospect of easing interest rates. The result has been a huge contraction in the gap between the official and parallel market rates. Foreign capital inflows are expected to grow further in 2026 as awareness heightens around the Non-Resident BVN and as Nigeria begins to reap the benefits of its exit from the grey list of the Financial Action Task Force and the European Union’s removal of the country from its list of high-risk jurisdictions on Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT). Nigeria exiting the two global financial restraining bodies’ list has signaled a major restoration of confidence in the country and eases compliance frictions for correspondent banks with tangible benefits of an estimated $30 billion in potential investments in the country in 2026.

    NGX Listed Companies Declaring Higher Profits

    The country’s biggest firms have been recording strong profit growth. After years of foreign exchange volatility that eroded corporate earnings, a more stable naira in 2025 is restoring profitability across NGX listed firms. An analysis of NGX 30 listed firms shows that twenty-six of the firms recorded a 72.7 percent increase in after-tax profits to N7.6 trillion in the nine months of 2025 from N4.4 trillion in the same period of 2024.

    This reflects a broad-based profit recovery, particularly among those companies with domestic production bases and moderate import exposure.

    The surveyed firms include BUA Foods, MTN, Dangote Cement, BUA Cement, Geregu Power, Transcorp Power, Nigerian Breweries PLC, Lafarge Africa and International Breweries.

    Others are Transcorp Hotel, Nestle Nigeria, Presco Plc, Okomu Oil, Dangote Sugar Refinery, Oando Plc, Transnational Corporation, Access Holding Plc, and Fidelity Bank.

    The overall data shows that as the naira steadied in 2025, corporate Nigeria began to regain balance after years of volatility-induced distortions. Companies’ profit margins are improving, cost management is firmer and financing plans are clearer. Companies that are yet to resume dividend payments are expected to do so sooner than later.

    For instance, the telecom giant MTN Nigeria rebounded strongly, posting a N750 billion profit in the first nine months of 2025, reversing a N513 billion loss a year earlier. Revenue soared 57 percent year-on-year to N3.73 trillion, driven by data and fintech growth.

    In the energy sector, Seplat Energy’s profit rose sharply to N146 billion, up from N52 billion in 2024, while Oando Plc earned N201 billion after several volatile years.

    Power companies such as Geregu and Transcorp Power benefited from stable naira-denominated financing and improved energy demand from industries resuming expansion.

    Agricultural firms, notably Presco and Okomu Oil, posted strong earnings growth of 116 percent on the back of export competitiveness and efficient operations. The near-profit explosion across listed companies is indicative of prospective performances of the listed companies on the NGX with implications for production expansion, employment and wealth creation in 2026.

    New Tax Laws and Nigeria’s Economic Buoyancy

    The tax reforms, which took effect on January 1, 2026, are projected to improve Nigeria’s tax mobilization. The federation’s revenue is expected to strengthen further, driven by the phased implementation of tax reforms, tighter compliance enforcement, expanded use of digital revenue systems, and improved remittance discipline across revenue-generating agencies.

    In addition, Nigeria’s tax reforms will redefine how manufacturers operate, invest, and plan for growth. The law signals a clear policy shift towards a more coordinated and incentive-driven fiscal environment, particularly for the manufacturing sector.

    At the centre of the reforms are the newly-introduced Economic Development Tax Incentives targeting priority sectors such as manufacturing. Under the scheme, eligible companies can obtain an Economic Development Incentive Certificate, granting a five percent annual tax credit on qualifying capital expenditure for up to five years. Firms that reinvest profits may access longer incentive periods, while some manufacturing-related transactions are exempt from stamp duties. The incentives are intended to tilt investment decisions in favour of local production and industrial expansion, particularly at a time when manufacturers are under pressure from import costs and foreign exchange volatility. These hold strong momentum potentials for increased production and productivity growth in 2026.

    Beyond incentives, the Tax Act revises capital allowance rules, providing clearer guidance on how manufacturers can claim deductions on plant, machinery, and industrial buildings. This could ease pressure on cash flow by allowing businesses to recover capital costs more quickly during the early stages of operation or expansion and further encourage increased PPE acquisition across sector.

    The Act also introduces research and development deductions. It permits manufacturers to deduct up to 5 percent of turnover from taxable profits where spending is linked to innovation. This provision could encourage product development and technology upgrades, areas where many local manufacturers have historically lagged behind, due to funding constraints.

    Another production bolstering factor is the clearer rules on input VAT credits, which are expected to reduce disputes and prevent the accumulation of unrecoverable taxes on raw materials and capital equipment with manufacturers operating within the agriculture and agro-processing value chain standing to gain further advantages. These include income tax exemptions for the first five years of operation, zero-rated VAT on selected inputs such as animal feeds and fertilisers, and duty-free importation of machinery for agricultural production. Taken together, the measures could strengthen margins and free up resources for expansion, workforce development, and technology investment, improving the competitiveness of locally-made goods.

    Key pro-poor provisions in the tax laws include full exemption from Personal Income Tax for individuals earning ₦800,000 or less annually (covering minimum wage earners). Progressive taxation shifting more burden to higher earners. Elimination of numerous “nuisance taxes” that disproportionately affected small businesses and low-income households. Expanded reliefs, such as increased tax-free compensation for job loss or injury (from ₦10 million to ₦50 million) and incentives for agriculture and small enterprises. These changes will harmonize levies, reduce multiple taxation, boost revenue without borrowing dependency, and stimulate economic growth.

    Nigeria’s Emerging Supply Chain Sub-sector

    In the realm of global commerce, supply chains are the backbone of economic activities, especially in emerging markets like Nigeria. These networks encompass all stages of production, from raw material sourcing to the final product delivery. Nigeria’s integration into the global supply chain is advancing through a $2 billion logistics sector, driven by e-commerce, infrastructure investments, and AfCFTA, with growth expected to reach $3 billion by 2029.

    Key sectors include oil, agriculture, and manufacturing, though challenges remain in infrastructure, with logistics costs exceeding $29 billion annually.

    We also see a geographical relocation of industry as a result of cheap labour. Nigeria offers significantly lower labour costs compared to China and other Asian economies, making it an ideal location for cost-conscious manufacturers particularly with AfCFTA providing access to 1.54 billion consumers while approximately 47 percent of Nigerian businesses have adopted digital solutions to optimize supply chain operations.

    Nigerian Banks’ Credit to Real Sector to Increase

    The challenge for Nigerian banks in the post-recapitalization era starting March 2026, is the operational compulsion to move from defensive balance-sheet positioning to carefully priced lending. This will facilitate entrepreneur financing across strategic sectors of the economy. At the household level, pressure on consumer wallets should continue to ease, as inflation is expected to fall below the long-run average and the CBN inflation target.

    Conclusion

    The year 2026 promises to be a standout season for the Nigerian economy despite the tensions that usually characterize election season. Though Nigeria’s federal and state elections are to hold early in 2027, however, all maneuvres, intrigues and intense politicking that usually precede the election year and endanger the business of governance will rear their ugly heads this year.

    However, from our readings, the Federal Government of Nigeria has shown substantial capacity to manage an economy that is transiting from populism to policy-driven facilitation. The economic atmosphere so engendered has variously enabled independence and effective decision-making process for the critical private sector sphere of the economy. This has given fillip to economic momentum and is now the reason we are decoupling GDP’s growth prospects from the budget of the Nigerian federation as it used to be.

    Without doubt, the President Tinubu-led administration is successfully driving the economy away from the doldrums of uncertainty that used to distort the growth paths of the national economy. This gives us utmost confidence in the robust and positive trajectory of the national economy.

    • Omoniyi M. Akinsiju, PhD, Chairman, Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) , writes from Abuja
  • Week the numbers could not ignore

    Week the numbers could not ignore

    There are weeks in the life of a presidency when events align so neatly that even the most sceptical observers are forced to pause. Last week was one of such weeks for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and, by extension, for Nigeria. From the diplomatic theatres of Ankara to the trading screens of the foreign exchange market, and finally to the cold verdict of an influential global publication, the signals were unmistakably positive. It was a week of wins, plain and clear.

    It began in Türkiye. On Monday evening, President Tinubu arrived in Ankara at the invitation of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, stepping into the biting winter cold not as a tourist or ceremonial guest, but as a man on a mission. Those who know Tinubu’s political and administrative DNA understand this instinctively. He does not travel to admire scenery or exchange pleasantries. He travels for leverage, for advantage, for deals that can move the needle at home. Ankara was no exception.

    By Tuesday, the business end of the visit was in full swing. The optics alone told a story: a Nigerian delegation heavy with ministers and senior officials, sitting across from their Turkish counterparts, not in supplication but in negotiation. By the time the doors opened and the communiqués rolled out, Nigeria walked away with no fewer than nine multi-sectoral agreements. Defense cooperation, energy, education, diaspora policy, media, halal quality infrastructure, and the establishment of a Joint Economy and Trade Committee all made the list. Most symbolically, both countries recommitted themselves to growing bilateral trade to $5 billion. It was previously about $2 billion.

    That figure is not mere diplomatic decoration. It represents factories humming, ports busier than before, and jobs created along value chains that stretch from Lagos to Ankara. It signals confidence in Nigeria as a destination for capital at a time when investors are notoriously cautious. For Tinubu, it was also another entry in a familiar ledger. As governor of Lagos State years ago, he built a reputation as a dealmaker who understood that growth follows structure, and structure follows hard choices. Türkiye felt like a reprise of that Lagos playbook, scaled to a national stage.

    Even the minor mishap that briefly caught public attention, (back at home though because reports had it that Turks were surprised to hear that made a headline in Nigeria); a stumble caused by stepping on a metal object, became an unintended metaphor. The President steadied himself and carried on. No drama, no interruption, no retreat. In many ways, it mirrored the broader reform journey of his administration: momentarily jarring, uncomfortable to watch at times, but defined by forward motion rather than paralysis.

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    While the echoes of Ankara were still settling, another signal emerged back home. On Thursday, the naira did something it had not done in a long while: it surprised the optimists by outperforming expectations. Strengthening from the N1,450–N1,420 range to about N1,388.24 to the dollar at the official window, the currency recorded its strongest showing since May 2024. In a country where exchange rate movements dominate dinner-table conversations and boardroom calculations alike, the news landed with force.

    This was not a random bounce. It was the fruit of a decision Tinubu took early in his presidency, and for which he paid a heavy political price: pulling the plug on the rent-seeking, multi-window foreign exchange regime and allowing the naira to find its level. That move stripped away the illusion of strength that had enriched a few through arbitrage while bleeding the economy. It denied round-trippers their playground and forced capital to respond to fundamentals rather than favours.

    For months, the pain was real and visible. Inflation surged, purchasing power shrank, and the criticism was relentless. Yet, as last Thursday’s numbers suggested, the architecture was always designed for this phase: stabilisation, credibility, and gradual recovery. A currency that can strengthen on the back of policy coherence is one that investors can trust, even if cautiously. The Ankara deals and the naira’s performance were not separate stories; they were chapters of the same narrative.

    Then came Friday, and with it, the verdict of The Economist. Rarely sentimental and often unforgiving, the magazine offered an assessment that many Nigerians might not have expected so soon. It credited Tinubu’s administration with pulling Africa’s largest economy back from the brink. It noted that painful reforms had stabilised the naira, rebuilt foreign exchange reserves to a seven-year high, and set the stage for renewed growth, with the IMF projecting a 4.4 per cent expansion in 2026.

    The Economist did not ignore the hardships. It acknowledged the squeeze on ordinary Nigerians and the strain of debt servicing on public finances. But its core conclusion was unambiguous: the direction is right, the precision of reform is evident, and the economy is no longer wobbling on the edge. For a president whose choices have often been judged harshly in the court of public opinion, that mattered.

    Put together, the three strands of the week tell a coherent story. The success in Türkiye was not an isolated diplomatic flourish; it was an external validation of internal reform. Investors and partner nations respond to seriousness, to clarity of purpose, and to governments that are willing to endure short-term pain for long-term gain. The naira’s rally was not a miracle; it was a market response to consistency. And The Economist’s analysis was not flattery; it was a recognition that something fundamental has shifted.

    There is still a long road ahead. Stability does not automatically translate into prosperity, and macroeconomic improvements can feel abstract to families struggling with daily costs. Tinubu himself has never pretended otherwise. Yet politics, like economics, moves in phases. Last week marked the end of one such phase and the clear opening of another, one in which credibility begins to compound.

    For President Tinubu, it was a reminder that leadership is often vindicated not in applause but in outcomes. A week that began with a flight into Ankara ended with numbers and narratives aligning in his favour. The cameras saw it, the markets felt it, and the world took note. In the unforgiving arithmetic of governance, that counts as a win.

    Beyond the headline-grabbing success of the Turkish state visit, the steady rebound of the naira against the dollar and the rare nod of approval from The Economist, the rest of President Tinubu’s week unfolded as a careful blend of statecraft, empathy and symbolism, quiet moments that often say as much about leadership as high-stakes diplomacy.

    Midweek, the President turned national attention to matters of shared grief and collective humanity. On Wednesday, he reached out to Super Eagles captain Wilfred Ndidi following the tragic death of his father, Sunday Ndidi, in a road accident in Delta State. Tinubu’s message, sober and deeply personal, underscored the bond between family and nation, reminding Nigerians that even their most celebrated stars are not immune to loss. The condolence resonated all the more because it came just as Ndidi continues to carry the hopes of a football-loving nation on his shoulders.

    That same day, the President’s gaze shifted from personal sorrow to a global challenge that increasingly defines the modern age. Speaking through the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Senator George Akume, at a high-level meeting on climate-induced mobility under Nigeria’s chairmanship of the Rabat Process, Tinubu made a case for coordinated global action. His message was clear: climate change is no longer an abstract environmental concern but a driver of migration, insecurity and humanitarian strain across continents. It was a fitting final note to Nigeria’s tenure as Chair, positioning the country as a thoughtful voice in global conversations that link climate, development and human dignity.

    Also on Wednesday, the President mourned the passing of Otunba Adekunle Ojora, a towering figure in Nigeria’s business and public life. Tinubu’s tribute to the 93-year-old industrialist highlighted values; humility, perseverance, hard work and generosity, that once defined a generation of nation builders and which the administration continues to invoke as moral anchors in a reforming economy.

    Thursday carried a more reflective, historical tone. At the 2026 Samuel Akintola Memorial Lecture in Ibadan, Tinubu urged Nigerians to draw lessons from the life of the late Premier of Western Nigeria, Chief Ladoke Akintola. Through his representative, he called for courage, unity and a politics of cooperation, warning against bitterness and division, an appeal that echoed the administration’s broader push for national cohesion amid political realignments.

    The week closed on a gentler, celebratory note. On Friday, Tinubu congratulated Alhaja Lateefat Gbajabiamila, a 96-year-old pioneer nurse and former local government chair, on her honorary doctorate. In celebrating her resilience and service, the President subtly reinforced a theme that ran through his week: that nationhood is built not only by policies and power but by lives of quiet excellence, compassion and enduring legacy.

    Taken together, these moments formed the understated rhythm of a presidency attentive not just to markets and summits, but to memory, mourning and meaning.

  • 70 years journey of Nigeria’s Platinum Navy

    70 years journey of Nigeria’s Platinum Navy

    • By Babajide Fadoju

    In 2026, the Nigerian Navy will officially turn 70, having come into existence on June 1, 1956, as the Nigerian Navy Defence Force (NNDF). The middle child of Nigeria’s Armed Forces—younger than the Army but older than the Air Force—the Service is approaching a platinum jubilee milestone.

    For the Navy, and for the nation as a whole, this anniversary is a moment to celebrate and honour an enduring legacy of courageous service. It is also an opportunity to reaffirm the Navy’s unwavering commitment to safeguarding Nigeria’s maritime domain and protecting the country’s vital economic lifelines at sea.

    Platinum, as a metal, symbolises strength and durability. It is resistant to wear and corrosion, widely used across industries, and is, in fact, the most ductile of all pure metals—able to be stretched into thin wire without breaking.

    It is a fitting metaphor for the Nigerian Navy: resilient under pressure, adaptable in form, and enduring in purpose.

    The man who will lead the Service through its 70th anniversary and into the next phase of its journey is Vice Admiral Idi Abbas, the 56-year-old 25th Chief of the Naval Staff, who assumed command on the penultimate day of October 2025. Since taking office, the highly decorated Above Water Warfare specialist has signalled his determination to preside over a defining era for the Navy.

    For his command, 2026 will be a pivotal year—an opportunity to present to the world a Nigerian Navy that is at its most capable, most motivated, and most formidable in its history, and to demonstrate fidelity to his inaugural pledge to “uphold the proud traditions of excellence and service that define our Navy,” while leading from the front, listening attentively, and keeping personnel welfare at the heart of command.

    As the new year gets underway, preparations are gathering momentum, under Abbas’ leadership, for the anniversary celebrations, which will take place within the symbolic window between May 29 and June 12—two of the most significant dates in Nigeria’s democratic calendar. That symbolism should not be overlooked. The Navy, like the rest of the Armed Forces, occupies a special place in Nigeria’s democracy: protecting national sovereignty, preserving territorial integrity, and projecting Nigerian power and influence beyond its shores.

    Planned events for the platinum jubilee include an International Maritime Conference and Exhibition, as well as an International Fleet Review (IFR). Of all the Services, the Nigerian Navy is perhaps the most intrinsically international in outlook, given the multinational nature of the maritime environment in which it operates. It is therefore no surprise that navies from around the world will converge on Nigeria in the first week of June to participate in the celebrations, underscoring the Service’s growing global partnerships and standing.

    It is not an exaggeration to say that the modest force that began in 1956 with a handful of patrol, training, and survey vessels would barely recognise today’s Nigerian Navy. What now exists is one of Africa’s most formidable and respected maritime forces, equipped with modern platforms, improved infrastructure, and a more professionalised corps of officers and ratings.

    Read Also: Navy, NIMASA seek collaboration on hydrography, wreck removal

    Even compared to the Navy that marked its 60th anniversary in 2016, today’s Service represents a significant leap forward. The past decade has seen sustained investment, doctrinal refinement, and operational improvement. The results are evident. This is the Nigerian Navy that has kept Nigeria off the global list of piracy-prone nations for four consecutive years, maintaining a clean slate since that historic achievement in 2022—no small feat in one of the world’s most complex maritime regions.

    This is also the Nigerian Navy that, in 2025, concluded an agreement with the African Union to provide strategic sea lift services in support of AU humanitarian operations across the continent. Central to this capability is NNS KADA, one of the most modern and capable warships in Africa today.

    Indeed, it is KADA’s advanced capabilities that positioned the Navy to credibly offer such support to the African Union.

    The Navy’s elite Special Boat Service (SBS) has further strengthened its reputation as a top-tier special forces unit, and is now complemented by a newly established Special Operations Command (SOC), strategically located along the banks of the River Benue in Makurdi, Benue State.

    Beyond defence, the Nigerian Navy has increasingly asserted itself in humanitarian assistance and community impact. Through dozens of infrastructure projects nationwide, as well as high-risk rescue and evacuation operations, the Service has saved countless lives that would otherwise have been lost to maritime accidents and flooding.

    In August 2024, all 59 crew members of the dredging vessel MV Ambika 4 were rescued during a ten-hour naval operation—an operation that tragically claimed the life of Lieutenant Commander Gideon Yashim Gwaza, who led the mission and paid the ultimate price in service to others. More recently, on December 22, 2025, Nigerian Navy personnel rescued 20 crew members from the burning MV Chimba Express along the Calabar waterways.

    Nigeria was also recently in the news for the military intervention that helped preserve democracy in the Republic of Benin following an attempted coup on December 7. Less widely known, however, is the Nigerian Navy’s quiet but crucial role in strengthening Benin’s maritime security. Just two weeks before the attempted coup, the Naval Dockyard Limited formally handed over a fully refitted Benin Navy ship, BNS Matelot Brice Kpomasse, as part of an agreement to repair and upgrade six Beninese naval vessels signed in 2024.

    The Nigerian Navy has also become a valued partner in the global effort to fully map the world’s ocean floor. In May 2023, it entered a historic partnership with the Nippon Foundation–GEBCO Seabed 2030 Project, reflecting the significant advances the Service has made in oceanographic research, hydrographic surveying, and technical expertise. These advances have delivered tangible local benefits, with the National Hydrographic Agency—formerly the Nigerian Navy Hydrographic Office—producing updated and more accurate charts of Nigeria’s waterways.

    These achievements outlined above represent only a fraction of what defines Nigeria’s platinum Naval Force. Like every other Service, and the entirety of Nigeria’s security architecture, the Nigerian Navy has been able to count on the unwavering support and commitment of the Commander-in-Chief, His Excellency, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. With this level of support, there is no doubt that the best is yet ahead; that fair winds and following seas are already assembling to usher the Nigerian Navy into an even more rewarding next chapter.

    • Fadoju writes from Ondo State
  • Lagos’ bridge of death

    Lagos’ bridge of death

    Perhaps no other bridge in Nigeria has recorded more road crashes than the Otedola Bridge on the outskirt of Lagos along the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway. Weekly, sometimes daily, crashes, most times, very bloody and fatal, have become so regular, that commuters now have their hearts in their mouth once their vehicles approach the axis. But why is this so and how can it be stemmed? Gboyega Alaka writes.

    It was never officially named Otedola Bridge. However, by virtue of its proximity to the Lagos State medium housing estate located right opposite the bridge and named after a former Lagos State Governor, Sir Michael Otedola, father of billionaire businessman, Femi Otedola, it naturally assumed the name. Inevitably, the volume of auto crashes, gridlocks and other unpalatable incidences recorded weekly, sometimes daily on the bridge; meant the media had to unwittingly adopt a descriptive name for it, and Otedola naturally came handy. 

    Welcome to Lagos bridge of death

    For every Nigerian newspaper reader or news junkie, the name ‘Otedola Bridge’ unveiled in 1978 as part of the newly completed Lagos-Ibadan Expressway should ring a bell, albeit for negative reasons. Hardly a week passes without it featuring in the news. And the headlines are always as horrific as they come: “Three family members die, two rescued in Otedola bridge autocrat”; “Eight injured as truck crashes on Otedola Bridge”; “Two serious accidents rock Otedola Bridge in Lagos. Fully loaded trucks overturn”; “Truck rams into two cars on Otedola Bridge”; LASTMA rescues baby in multiple vehicle collision on Otedola Bridge”; “Another gridlock hits Otedola Bridge as truck, commercial bus crash in Lagos”; “Otedola bridge fire: Drivers, traders, mechanics lament devastating losses…”

    One could go on and on and on. Hundreds of lives have been lost, many maimed for life and vehicles and properties destroyed.

    In one of such incidents reported on March 12, 2025, titled: “Otedola bridge fire: Drivers, traders, mechanics lament devastating losses”, The Nation reporter captured a grim aftermath.

    On Tuesday March 11, 2025, a devastating fire had erupted after a 30-tonne gas tanker overturned on the bridge, fell over and exploded. That inferno did not only claim lives – LASEMA (the Lagos state Emergency Management Agency) reported two dead (unofficial report claimed four); it claimed vehicles, moving and some others stationed at mechanics’ workshops underneath the bridge and nearby.

    Altogether, between 12 and 15 automobiles were destroyed alongside eight tricycles and several buildings, including a church (partially), a dental clinic and a plaza.

    A survivor, George Uchenna, a driver, recounted his narrow escape: “I parked with my boy when the tanker fell. We managed to run, but about ten bus drivers at the scene didn’t make it.”

    Among the victims was Baba Rotimi, a well-known mechanic trapped by the spreading gas before the fire ignited, leaving him with no room to escape. Rumour had it that he was trying to rescue a customer’s vehicle.

    A member of nearby Redeemed Christian Church of God (Fulfillment Centre) Paul Samuel, narrated how the raging flame consumed the church’s gate (but mercifully spared the church auditorium); while the plaza was consumed almost in its entirety.

    Another eyewitness, Tosin, a mechanic revealed that a food vendor’s gas explosion worsened the raging fire, causing it to further consume four parked cars.

    Most horrendous was the death of a newly wedded couple: Chiedozie Okoye, a banker with Zenith Bank and his wife, Joan Chidalu, an America-based nurse, who had only been married weeks earlier in the inferno.

    And the tragedies go back in time. On June 28, 2018, what may go down as the most horrendous yet happened on the same bridge when a Mack truck tanker carrying a 33,000-liter of petrol heading out of Lagos suffered a brake failure, fell over and spilled its content on the busy expressway.

    The explosion that ensued created a massive inferno that quickly engulfed numerous oncoming vehicles, trapping their drivers and passengers.

    Official reports confirmed 12 deaths including a minor, while four survivors suffered severe burns. Most of the victims were burnt beyond recognition, with families needing DNA analysis to identify their relatives.

    In all, 54 vehicles were utterly burnt, including the tanker, five buses and 45 private cars.

    That incident caused the Lagos State government to come up with stricter regulations for articulated vehicles, including restricted movement hours for tankers (from 9pm to 6am). Unfortunately, that law soon became inactive, as motorists reverted to old ways and articulated vehicles resumed plying highways at their whims.

    Speaking on non-compliance to that regulation when confronted with the rascality of articulated vehicles and their wanton waste of lives and destruction of properties in an interview not long ago, the Special Adviser to the Lagos State Government on Transportation, Mr. Sola Giwa, said it was a regulation and not a law. He also stated that it was necessitated by the events of the time, and that it has never been reversed. He, however, stated that the issue of insecurity, as cited by the drivers, necessitated a relaxing of its enforcement.

    “It was a regulation, not a law. … At that time, the regulation was a necessity, and nobody has reversed it. However, we also noticed the issue of security which came up, where drivers and owners came here complaining that they are being attacked while moving at night. So as a listening government, we started looking for other ways of regulating them, such as use of weigh bridges and stopping them from point of entry into the state. …As a government, we have to continuously think outside the box and evolve.”

    More horrendous stories

    The effect of that non-compliance has been more horrendous accidents, blood spilled and properties and valuables consumed, with incidences Otedola Bridge, leading the pack.

    On November 5 (2025), eight people were severely injured and hospitalised when a truck rammed into eight vehicles on the Otedola Bridge section of the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway.

    Read Also: Makoko, other demolitions in public interest – Lagos govt

    The truck, heading out of Lagos, was said to have rammed into two 18-seater buses, one minibus, and five cars.

    Just last week, January 23, 2026 to be exact, the bridge again witnessed a multiple crash in the early hours, leading to a gridlock that lasted long hours. Muyiwa Hassan, a photographer with The Nation newspaper told this reporter the horrific story of how he spent six hours on a journey that should at best take him 45miniutes between his Fatai Atere office and Magboro residence.

    Not surprisingly, the accident claimed one life, the driver of one of the trucks.

    Traffic authorities in Lagos said the principal incident involved a violent collision between two heavy-duty trailers, one laden with sand and the other conveying granite. Both drivers were said to be recklessly contending for right of way when tragedy struck.

    The Director, Public Affairs and Enlightenment Department, of the Lagos State Traffic Management Authority (LASTMA) Adebayo Taofiq said in a statement: “The driver of the second trailer was rescued alive and remarkably, escaped unhurt.”

    “Cumulatively, the incidents obstructed nearly 80 per cent of the carriageway, thereby compelling the implementation of extensive traffic control and diversion measures,” LASTMA said.

    “Consequently, motorists travelling inward Lagos from the Mowe, Kara Bridge and Redemption Camp axis were redirected through the Ojodu –Olole route, connecting Agidingbi, Coca-Cola, Secretariat, and 7-Up to enable continued movement towards Gbagada or Ojota with minimal inconvenience.”

    The Rapid Response Squad of the Lagos State Police Command posted that a secondary accident occurred as a result of the overturned truck.

    “Two serious accidents have occurred at Otedola Bridge, inward Lagos. In the first incident, a fully loaded truck overturned, spilling its consignments onto the road and covering about 90 per cent of the carriageway.”

    It stated that the accident, which happened inward Secretariat along the Lagos–Ibadan Expressway, left thousands of people stranded on the ever-busy highway.

    On December 10, 2025, three family members were confirmed dead while two other victims sustained injuries following a multi-vehicle collision at the Secretariat towards Otedola Bridge, along Lagos–Ibadan Expressway.

    Lagos State Traffic Management Authority (LASTMA) reported that the three family members were a father, mother and their young child.

    Preliminary investigations revealed that the incident involving three vehicles (Audi, Toyota Camry & Toyota Corolla) occurred when a heavily loaded truck travelling at excessive speed violently hit one of the vehicles from the rear, causing it to lose control and collide with two other moving vehicles.

    On October 30, the bridge recorded another crash, leaving one person injured. That incident occurred just hours after a deadly crash on Kara Bridge, which left several people dead and caused gridlock on the Expressway.

    A truck reportedly suffered brake failure, ramming into a vehicle in front and triggering a chain collision involving three other cars.

    The crash caused severe gridlock on both sides of the bridge, causing commuters to spend hours in traffic.

    Baby rescued unhurt

    On November 20, 2025, the bridge yet again made the headlines, with screaming tabloid title such as “LASTMA rescues baby in multiple vehicle collision at Otedola Bridge.”

    The baby, an eight-month-old infant was rescued unhurt in a multiple-vehicle collision early that Thursday at the Otedola Bridge, while no fewer than four pedestrians sustained serious injuries.

    The accident, according to LASTMA’s Director of Public Affairs and Enlightenment Department, Adebayo Taofiq, involved four vehicles.

    The four injured pedestrians, one of who was carrying the baby, were said to be crossing the expressway when an LT commercial bus rammed into them.

    The impact, Taofiq claimed, led to a secondary chain collision involving three other vehicles.

    Kara bridge, sister culprit

    Equally notorious for crashes is the Kara Bridge on the same Lagos-Ibadan expressway. Just 2.7kilometers from the Otedola Bridge, it might seems impossible to discuss crashes on Otedola Bridge or gridlocks at that, without referencing or implicating Kara, as effects of incidences on one impact the other.

    A fortnight ago, Kara Bridge inward Mowe witnessed a multiple crash that led to the death of two people with several injured.

    The accident occurred when a truck conveying bags of flour reportedly lost control and rammed into several vehicles, including commercial buses on the busy highway.

    The impact also affected a Toyota Corolla that had been parked on the bridge due to a flat tyre, injuring its driver.

    Emergency responders from the Lagos State Traffic Management Authority (LASTMA), the Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC), and the Ogun State Traffic Compliance and Enforcement Agency (TRACE) were deployed to the scene to manage traffic and carry out rescue operations.

    LASTMA in its official X handle said the crash involved a truck, a Toyota Corolla, a RAV4 SUV, and two fully loaded interstate buses.

    Not surprisingly, the accident caused severe traffic gridlock, trapping thousands in their vehicles for hours.

    Months earlier on October 30, 2025, six persons, including a police officer were confirmed dead following a multiple collision on the Kara Bridge.

    The crash involved several trucks, including a fuel tanker. This resulted in a massive fire and chaos on the highway.

    Eyewitnesses would later say that one of the trucks veered off the road and crashed into the concrete barricade on the bridge. The impact severed the truck’s head, causing it to plunge into the river below.

    One of the victims, said to be a truck occupant, was burnt beyond recognition, while others, including a policeman and an assistant to one of the drivers, also lost their lives.

    All-year-round

    While the ‘Ember months have become notorious for accidents – many have put this down to certain beliefs and myths; these two bridges make no distinction. They remain prone to accidents every other month of the year –be it January, March or August; licking blood, savouring the clatter of bones and metal as well as mashing of flesh.

    On some very bad weeks, Otedola Bridge, especially, records up to three or more fatal accidents, raising concerns and questions. Is it due to engineering fault, drivers’ impatience/recklessness? Or some supernatural reasons?

    As Africans, this last part needed to be raised, as this is not the only bridge in Lagos.

  • ‘Violation of speed limit responsible for accidents on Otedola Bridge’

    ‘Violation of speed limit responsible for accidents on Otedola Bridge’

    Federal Road Safety Corps Lagos Sector Commander, Oseni Hamzat admits steepness of bridge but says road wide enough if drivers comply with speed limit, road decorum.

    What, in your opinion, are the reasons for the incessant auto crashes on Otedola Bridge?

    The problem on that axis is on two fronts. There is the Otedola Bridge and there is the Kara Bridge where they are currently working on the expansion joints. And that calls for some of the unrests we are experiencing on that corridor, especially around that Kara Bridge/OPIC area. That’s why people are complaining of heavy traffic gridlock. But of course, there is no pain without gain. When they were constructing or doing rehabilitation works on the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway, people cried and lamented; I was sector commander, Lagos-Ibadan then. But the same people are now enjoying the benefits. However, there are vandals on those bridges, especially Kara. Do you know that they carted away some of the irons and some other things? When I inspected it, I found out that the problem was not just of the effect of vehicles. Yes, there are overloaded vehicles that created some lacuna or problems, but vandals are there too.

    Let’s talk about the Otedola Bridge, which has seemingly become a death trap?

    I’d say human factor. Yes, there is a bit of engineering issue because of the steepness of the road, but it is wide enough for safe driving. However, human activities and our tendency not to follow rules, speed limit violation and all that are serious contributors. And this may be as a result of some vehicles that don’t have enough of compression. Some of them, when they descend the hill, they want to use extra force to emerge through the slope. Mind you in that process, the slightest distraction would cause a derail, loss of control, and you see such vehicles capsizing or landing on their side, and affecting some other oncoming vehicles. These are some of the things we have observed overtime. If everybody drives the way they should, obey traffic rules, that road would be managed properly. And if we’re talking of correcting the engineering issue, a bridge is not something that can be reconstructed overnight, especially on a highway like the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway. A minute of road closure or obstruction on that road will immediately amount to over a kilometer of traffic gridlock. So the drivers should change their attitude and be more careful and responsible, especially when they approach that part of the road.

    But be that as it may, there is an ongoing collaboration – you know that part of Kara falls into Ogun state. Last Sunday, we held a meeting with Lagos and Ogun states on how to collaborate and ensure that that those issues are taken care of. Tomorrow (this past Thursday), we, the FRSC Lagos/Ogun, the controller of works, Lagos and Ogun, and some other stakeholders are going for physical inspection of that area. You can see that we’re not just sitting quiet doing nothing. We are not happy with the situation; the traffic gridlock is affecting us as well. We use the same road, we have appointments too, and you can’t violate traffic rules because you are officials.

    We’ve also noticed that the accidents on this bridge almost always involve trucks and articulated vehicles; is there no way these truck drivers can be educated to take appropriate measures so that we can avoid these kinds of incidences?

    We do, we do more of advocacy, but it just means that it’s not enough yet. We need to heighten it; we need to go to their sources, to let them know more of these things. We also do more of checking. It might interest you to know that we have met them at their depots on several occasions. But these are wet cargoes. For the dry cargoes, the inspections are being done at the various ports, which is not comprehensive enough. So, by the time we are done with these collaborative efforts, you will see that we would be able to forge ahead and take care of these things.

    Read Also: Heavy gridlock as truck falls on Otedola Bridge  

    There is also the related issue of traffic gridlock, how are you handling that?

    If human beings take care in how they handle situations like that, definitely, there would be reduction in such incidences. Let us assume a crash happens; there is something we also need to do to forestall people from driving against traffic, which our people are want to do, and which contributes to the heavy traffic gridlock our people experience. Unabated driving against traffic has a ripple effect and it can lead to total lockdown of the entire Lagos State, like it happened two Fridays ago. So part of what we’re recommending are heavy-duty machines or cranes that can be immediately deployed to remove some of these vehicles when these incidences happen.

    How about the FRSC stationing men to warn drivers of the steeply road ahead, so that even if they didn’t know or have forgotten, they could be reminded and they can take precaution?

    It is quite possible, but it is more important that drivers understand what they need to do. Even if we deploy one million officers to warn them, a stupid driver would run at a suicidal speed that he would ignore even the men standing. That is the truth.

    Do you have a data of the amount of incidences that we have been having on that axis as per certain time?

    Yes, it can be generated because we have all the crashes on that axis documented, but I will need the permission from my national headquarters in Abuja.  

  • Rape of two-year-oldrenews concerns over gender-based violence in Plateau (1)

    Rape of two-year-oldrenews concerns over gender-based violence in Plateau (1)

    • Inside Plateau’s growing gender-based violence crisis

    Plateau State has in recent years remained one of the flashpoints of gender-based violence in North-Central Nigeria. Cases of domestic abuse, sexual assault, and child rape continue to make headlines, revealing the vulnerability of women and children in the state. One of the most disturbing incidents in recent times is the rape of a two-year-old girl, Maryam Ahmad, in Bassa Local Government Area, an event that has once again drawn attention to the systemic challenges of tackling gender-based violence in Plateau State, DAVID ADENUGA reports.

    Maryam Ahmad was just two years and eight months old when her life changed forever. According to her mother, Safiya Umar, a sexual assault on her occurred in October 2025 under circumstances she described as tragic and totally unexpected.

    Safiya explained that she lives separately from her husband, who resides in another house with his other wives.

    On the day of the incident, she had gone to attend to her sick father and, feeling exhausted, allowed Maryam to visit her father’s house in Bassa; something she rarely permitted. That decision, she admitted, would later haunt her.

    Safiya recalled: “When I came back and didn’t see her, I went to check. I found her lying down, with some bloodstains.

    “At first, I thought she had hurt herself. She was sleepy and later started vomiting.

    “She kept shouting ‘trader man, trader man.’ That was when I checked her and saw some dry blood.

    “Then I knew that something terrible had happened.”

    Medical examinations would later confirm her worst fears.

    The Toro Centre for Care and Support for Adolescent Children and Women got involved in the case after receiving reports.

    The Executive Director, Sulaiman Muhammad Sani, said his organisation was first informed on the second day, though details were unclear.

     “Later, we heard the child was in a hospital in Bauchi.

    “I mobilised my team, and after examination, we realised the facility was not suitable, so we moved her to Jos University Teaching Hospital,” he said.

    At JUTH, paediatric doctors referred Maryam to the emergency unit, where further examinations confirmed sexual abuse. Tests at the police clinic corroborated the findings.

    Despite her young age, Maryam was able to identify the alleged perpetrator.

    Sani added that the suspect had allegedly attempted such acts before, but earlier incidents were reportedly resolved quietly after community interventions.

    The suspect, 26-year-old Job Josiah from Michika Local Government Area of Adamawa State, was arrested the day after the incident.

    However, the case took on a new dimension when some community members tried to dismiss the allegation because Josiah is a Christian.

    “They said we were lying against him. But a child of two years cannot lie. When she was asked at the station, she pointed at him,” Safiya said.

    Attempts to suppress the case initially led Sani’s organisation to publicise aspects of the incident on social media, drawing attention from senior police authorities.

    Plateau State Commissioner of Police Emmanuel Adesina personally interrogated the suspect after receiving calls from higher authorities, including an Assistant Inspector-General of Police.

    The case was later transferred from the State Criminal Investigation Department to the Ministry of Justice for legal advice; a stage that would determine whether the suspect would face charges in court.

    “We are following the case bumper to bumper,” Sani said.

    “We have seen cases delayed for months, with suspects granted bail and justice frustrated.

    “We do not want that to happen here.”

    Gender-based violence as a trend

    Maryam Ahmad’s case is one of many across Plateau State. Between 2023 and 2025, Plateau recorded several gender-based violence incidents involving minors and women, according to civil society organisations and media investigations.

    In September 2025, a 14-year-old girl in Gangare, Jos North, was allegedly raped by a chemist shop owner, who was reportedly released by community leaders after initial apprehension.

     In October 2025, the police arrested a man for allegedly defiling a three-year-old girl in Mista Ali community, a case that sparked tension in the area. Some parents were reportedly pressured to accept financial settlements, allowing perpetrators to evade justice.

    Reports have highlighted a disturbing trend of sexual violence linked to insecurity and conflict in rural areas. A February 2025 report noted that several women were allegedly raped by “land-grabbing terrorists” in one year.

    A widow from Mangu Local Government Area recalled how five bandits gang-raped her 13-year-old daughter after killing her husband in November 2025.

    Read Also: Chris Okafor to VDM, Doris, others: prove rape allegation or face legal action

    Advocacy groups have also raised the alarm over rising sexual violence in rural communities such as Bokkos, Mangu, and Bassa, where limited access to justice and fear of stigma discourage reporting.

    In 2024, a series of child defilement cases prompted the Plateau State Government to restate its zero-tolerance stance on gender-based violence, leading to renewed collaboration with non-governmental organisations and the establishment of gender desks in some police divisions.

    Despite the foregoing efforts, activists say prosecution remains slow, survivor support is inadequate, and poverty continues to expose women and children to risk.

    The National Human Rights Commission reported that Plateau State has recorded a total of 1,868 gender-based violence cases from 2024 to date.

    Kiyenpiya Mafuyai, the state’s Director Legal Coordinator, attributed the high numbers to prolonged violent attacks in the state, which have led to displacement, economic hardship, and increased vulnerability.

    She also noted that harmful traditional and religious practices contribute significantly to GBV.

    Mafuyai stressed that the official figures do not reflect the true scale of the problem, as many cases go unreported due to stigma and fear. She observed that most reported cases involve child rape, while older women are less likely to come forward.

    “Many perpetrators are shielded. Even when cases are reported, incidents are often frustrated because people come to plead that the perpetrator be released or pardoned.

    “Religious leaders, traditional rulers and politicians sometimes defend perpetrators instead of protecting victims.

    “This discourages reporting because survivors feel they may not get justice,” she said.

    She added that child-rape cases occur for many reasons. Some claim ritual purposes are involved, while in other cases, the psychological motives of perpetrators are unknown.

    “Rape remains a persistent form of gender-based violence in the state, and many survivors are unwilling to report because they lack confidence in the justice system,” she said.

    The NHRC also noted that perpetrators are often shielded even when cases are reported. Religious leaders, traditional rulers and politicians sometimes intervene for perpetrators, discouraging survivors from seeking justice.

    The Commission stressed the need to change this narrative, saying perpetrators must be held accountable to serve as a deterrent to others.

     Efforts  to address GBV

    The NHRC engages in continuous advocacy across key sectors, pushing for reforms that make reporting safer and more survivor-friendly. It also advocates for shelters for victims of domestic violence.

    Sustained advocacy led to the passage of the Violence Against Persons Prohibition Law in 2022, which criminalises most forms of GBV and prescribes life imprisonment for rape.

    The Gender and Equal Opportunity Commission also provides another platform for reporting cases.

    The NHRC operates a complaint mechanism that allows members of the public to report GBV for investigation and appropriate action. It works with the police to strengthen gender desks and trains officers to respond sensitively to survivors.

    The Commission also engages men and young people to discourage harmful behaviour and conducts annual awareness campaigns during the 16 Days of Activism Against GBV.

    These involve the justice sector, security agencies, religious and traditional leaders, and communities, using media programmes and town hall meetings to raise awareness and protect survivors.

    For Safiya Umar, the struggle goes beyond seeking justice. With her husband ill and no stable source of income, caring for Maryam and her other children has become increasingly difficult.

    “I am not doing anything for a living. Even feeding is a problem. We just want the government and police to help us get justice,” she said.

    As of the time of this report, Maryam’s case remained with the Plateau State Ministry of Justice, awaiting confirmation on whether the suspect had a case to answer in court.

  • Banditry: Combined military operations restoring peace in beleaguered Kwara communities

    Banditry: Combined military operations restoring peace in beleaguered Kwara communities

    • Six wounded terrorists hospitalised in Omu-Aran

    Although it is not yet uhuru in parts of Kwara State with regard to the threats of insecurity, peace is gradually returning to a few of the affected communities. Bandits and other non-state actors have in the last one year held six local government areas in Kwara South and North regions by the jugular.

    The invasion of the massive forests of Ekiti, Ifelodun, Oke-Ero and Isin local government areas in Kwara South and Edu and Patigi in Kwara North has left in its wake summary termination of lives, dislocations and disruption of normal activities. The scary development had temporarily turned the once serene agrarian communities into desolate habitations, with Eruku, Babanla, Oke-Ode and Gbugbu in Kwara South and North as some of the worst hit last year.

    Some members of these communities are yet to come to terms with the reality of life. Some fleeing members had returned while others were still taking refuge on the outskirts of Ilorin, the state capital, it was gathered.

    An indigene of Oke-Ode, Ifelodun Local Government Area, where scores of vigilantes were gunned down late last year, said the community is now bubbling with life. In Eruku, Ekiti Local Government Area where some Christ Apostolic Church (CAC) worshippers were killed and about 30 kidnapped last year, the monarch, Owa Busari Olarenwaju, hailed the swift intervention of the security personnel. He said that life was gradually returning to his domain.

    But the Coordinator, Joint Security Watch in Kwara South, Elder Olaitan Oyin-Zubair, told The Nation that the people who fled their communities would not be able to fully return until the completion of the ongoing security operations. “Only a few of them have returned. Until the conclusion of the ongoing efforts on forests clearing through the joint military operations, it may not be visible,” Oyin-Zubair said.

    He reported a fresh kidnap incident on Idofin–Odo, Aga–Olla Rroad, where two women and a young boy were abducted by suspected bandits. “One elderly woman has been released. Another escaped. But the young boy remains in captivity. Security agencies are intensifying efforts to ensure his safe rescue,” he said.

    Oyin-Zubair added that sustained military air and ground operations across parts of Kwara State have forced armed bandits to flee their forest hideouts, leading to the destruction of several criminal camps and neutralisation of over 100 terrorists. The security operation is code-named “Operation India.”

    According to him, the offensive targeted major bandit enclaves in Baba Sango and other forests spanning Ifelodun, Edu and Patigi local government areas, where airstrikes and ground bombardments were carried out by the military in collaboration with other security agencies.

    He revealed that intelligence reports confirmed that many of the fleeing bandits sustained gunshot injuries, with six of them currently receiving treatment at Omu Aran General Hospital, while others were believed to have relocated towards Ekiti Local Government Area around the Isapa axis.

    He commended the forest guards in Ekiti and Oke-Ero local government areas for their swift response and bravery in repelling bandits and preventing their movement into the communities.

    “Their vigilance and courage have played a vital role in securing Ekiti and Oke-Ero LGAs and blocking the infiltration of fleeing criminals,” he added.

    Read Also: Governor Lawal renews synergy against banditry 

    Oyin-Zubair urged residents of Kwara South and neighbouring communities to remain vigilant and cooperate fully with security agencies by reporting suspicious movements or strange faces in their areas. “The bandits may attempt to regroup in new locations. Community alertness is critical at this time as authorities continue operations to restore lasting peace across the state,” he said.

    Security agencies have assured residents of sustained military presence in the affected forests until all criminal elements are flushed out and normalcy is fully restored, he said.

    Based on the ongoing Operation India, two local government areas of Ifelodun and Edu have imposed a 24-hour curfew on communities in the areas. The curfew affects the entire Oro-Ago District in Ifelodun Local Government Area of the state, the council chairman Hadji Abdulrasheed Yusuf said in a statement.

    The curfew is aimed at supporting ongoing security operation in the area. Oro-Ago has one of the longest forests housing bandits in Ifelodun Local Government Area. The LG chair added: “The curfew goes into effect by 6 am on Wednesday, January 28, 2026, in a coordinated effort to put terrorists in disarray and protect lives and property in the area.

    “Within this period, there will be no human or vehicular traffic in the entire district. This is in support of the ongoing security clearance operation in the area. Further reviews of this measure will be communicated.”

    In Edu LGA, the Council Chair Abdullahi Bello announced a 24-hour curfew on Gbugbu community, including the popular international market in Gbugbu. Bello added that the curfew was effective from 6pm on Tuesday, January 27.

    He said: “The curfew is part of the measures to protect lives and property in the area as security forces continue their operation in areas of interest.

    “This means human and vehicular movement is prohibited in the area under curfew. This is a security decision.”

    Sadly, a security source said the operations were being hampered by moles and informants in different communities, who give out information about troops’ movements.

    “Residents need to be vigilant. They need to speak up about the informants who give out information on troops’ movements. This is important for more success,” the source added.

    As part of the efforts to restore peace in bandits-ravaged communities, late last year, about 1,000 forest guards in the state graduated from training. The guards have already been deployed to curtail the activities of terrorists, kidnappers and illegal miners in the state.

    Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq called the initiative a game changer, which he said would leave the terrorists and kidnappers with the option of either leaving the state or paying a heavy prize. He commended President Bola Tinubu for “thinking out of the box” to repossess Nigeria’s forest resources, expel all the bad faith actors occupying the forests, and strengthen public safety.

    Governor AbdulRazaq also thanked the security forces for their commitment to protecting lives, saying a synergy with the new auxiliary forces who were all drawn from local communities will strengthen the campaign to fight terrorists and kidnappers.

    Governor AbdulRazaq said: “Today opens a new page in our campaign against all forms of terrorism, kidnapping, and opportunist attacks on our people by bad faith actors who exploit our vast territories for evil purposes.

    “The enlistment of armed forest guards to complement the patriotic efforts of our security forces is a game changer in this campaign.

    “It shows very clearly that the government is committed to the mission of ridding our country of all forms of terrorism, banditry and kidnapping.

    “And the message is very clear: more than ever before, the terrorists now have the option of immediately leaving our state or paying a heavy price.

    “Today’s launch of the forest guards simply means that we are going on the offensive because our people deserve their peace as freeborns. We have had enough! Anyone who thinks or acts otherwise is our enemy who will not be spared.

    “Distinguished forest guards, you are embarking on a national assignment to protect our people from all criminals in our forests.

    “Working with gallant officers and personnel of the security forces, you are to go all out to flush out the terrorists, restore sanity in our forests, and keep our communities safer than they ever were.

    “I commend the President of the Federal Republic for this bold policy response to the security situation in our country and the larger Sahel Region.

    “I thank the leadership of the National Security Adviser for pulling this through. I am also confident that all the security forces will work together with the forest guards to end this menace once and for all.

    “More importantly, I urge the people of Kwara State to work with the security forces and the forest guards to flush out the terrorists and make our state uninhabitable for them.

    “While the forest guards are auxiliaries under the Office of the National Security Adviser and the Department of State Security, I assure you of our continuous support for this initiative just like we have done throughout your training.

     “Working with the ONSA, our plan is to ensure that each local government has at least 200 forest guards who will fortify our forests and work with local vigilantes to protect lives and property. 

    “I congratulate all the new forest guards. I thank you for agreeing to serve our state, and I reassure you of our continuous support as you embark on this important national security assignment. 

    “Finally, I thank all the security forces who were involved in the rigorous training programme. You all did so well. God bless you.”

     On his part, the National Security Adviser, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, said the newly trained forest guards would be deployed immediately to threatened communities in the pilot states, particularly around forested and ungoverned spaces.

    “The mandate of the forest guards is two-fold. First, they are entrusted with guarding our national heritage and charged with protecting, preserving, and sustainably managing our forest ecosystems, watersheds, wildlife, and biodiversity.

    “Secondly, they serve as a critical force multiplier in our national security architecture, particularly in confronting bandits, insurgents, terrorists, and other criminal elements that are exploiting the vast, ungoverned forest spaces across the country for their heinous crimes.”

    Represented by the Assistant Director General for DSS, Femi Shotayo, the NSA added: “Aside from being first responders, these guards are expected to gather actionable human intelligence, support ongoing security operations, and restore state presence where it has long been absent.”

    He said the deployment of the guards will be immediate along with payment of salaries and allowances.

    Ribadu urged the trainees to abide by their oaths of allegiance to the Nigerian state and to respect human rights, gender rights, and protection of civilians, among other rules of engagement taught at the training.

    “The oath of allegiance is not a mere formality; it is a binding pledge of loyalty to the Federal Republic of Nigeria, obedience to lawful authority, and commitment to the protection of lives, property and the Constitution.

    “By this act, you formally accept the sacred responsibility entrusted to you by the Nigerian state.

    “You are henceforth bound to uphold discipline, professionalism, respect for human rights, and the highest standards of conduct in the execution of your duties,” he said.

    As a pre-emptive measure not to be caught off guard, the state government announced an extension of the closure of primary and secondary schools in concerned communities. It also announced a temporary closure of the state College of Education in Oro, Kwara South; a step indigenes of the community have hailed to high heavens.

    The indigenes, under the aegis of Oro Professional Forum (OPF) backed the state government’s decision to temporarily shutdown academic activities at the College of Education, Oro, over insecurity.   

  • Banditry: Benue farmers flee ancestral farmlands, seek refuge in IDP camps

    Banditry: Benue farmers flee ancestral farmlands, seek refuge in IDP camps

    Food security has come under severe threats in some Benue communities, a region widely regarded as the food basket of Nigeria, due to renewed attacks on farmers by bandits.

    The Sankera geo-political bloc, comprising Ukum, Logo, and Katsina Ala local government areas in Benue North East Senatorial Zone, has been the epicenter of these attacks.

    Armed bandits have carried out numerous deadly attacks, killing hapless peasant farmers, destroying crops, and setting houses ablaze.

    In January 2026 alone, there were about 25 attacks in  Ukum, Logo, and Katsina Ala local government areas, predominantly affecting farmers.

    The attacks have affected preparations for the new farming season, leaving farmers in perpetual fear and forcing them to flee their ancestral farmland to Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) camps.

    There are fears that if the insecurity in the area is not contained, it will negatively impact food production, affecting not only Benue State but the entire nation.

    Farmers, who are mostly able-bodied young men and women, are now idle in IDP camps while their farmlands lie fallow. Children who should be in school are also living in those camps with their aged parents, leaving the affected areas with no one to engage in farming activities.

    A farmer in Chito, Azendeshi ward, Ukum Local Government Area, Uzenda Hur, warned that if the federal and state governments fail to protect farmers, there would be severe food scarcity in the new year.

    Uzenda Hur stated: “We farmers are supposed to be preparing the soil ahead of the new farming season, which will start with the first rain, but we are still in IDP camps. So, who will do the farming?”

    In Logo Local Government Area, the situation is even worse, especially in Gaambetiev settlements, which are close to River Benue and the farmers engage in all-year farming activities.

    Settlements in Tse Dzungwe, Tse Gbeleve ,Poovule, Anyibe and hundreds of other have been deserted .

    For example, in Tombo Ward, Gaambetiev, Logo Local Government Area, all the farmers in the hinterland have moved to Ayilamo, the ward headquarters, due to attacks by suspected herdsmen who have killed more than 30 persons, mostly farmers between December last year and now.

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    Tersoo Unande, a 55-year-old farmer with two wives and eight children, told our correspondent that suspected herdsmen have taken over their farmlands for more than 10 years.

    Unande said:

    “Since 2026 when herdsmen launched attacks on my settlement in Tse Dzungwe, Mbakorya, Mbaiwem, I have not gone back to my ancestral home.

    I had to look for a safe area for farming, because I have children and a wife to feed.”

    The worst scenario is that heavily armed herdsmen have turned his farm into their settlement, and it seems the security personnel are helpless.

    Unande appreciated the Inspector General of Police’s approval of a divisional police office in Ayilamo, Tombo, and increased police personnel and operational vehicles; a step likely to improve the security situation.

    However, Unande urged the government and security agencies to rework their mode of operation to safeguard farmers,. Otherwise, no one will farm, and there will be no food this year.

    In Katsina Ala Local Government area, the insecurity situation is not getting better either, with a series of attacks taking place since the new year began.

    The Council Chairmen of Katsina Ala and Ukum local governments have been effective in mobilising security personnel to secure their people and communities.

    Hon. Shaku Justice and Hon. Jonathan Modi said they had been able to mobilise soldiers to secure the lives of farmers and rural  communities.

    Hon. Modi stated: “Before now, most of the farmers, especially those on the border, were sacked by suspected armed herdsmen. But as a local government council, we have been able to launch counter-attacks or dialogue with the bandits to recover the settlements.”

    Katsina Ala Local Government Area is also home to large yam-producing communities, including food, and other  crops generally.

    However, renewed attacks and killings have laid waste whatever achievements the Council Chairman might have recorded in the area of security.

    But the local government authorities said they are doing every thing possible to change the situation for better so  that farmers can return to their farming bussiness.

    A traditional ruler, Chief Torbee Najir, told our correspondent that the only solution to the persistent attacks and killing of farmers is to deploy more soldiers to food-producing settlements and establish permanent military barracks and formations.

    Chief Najir warned: “If urgent steps are not taken, one day, the entire nation will sleep hungry because there will be no food to eat.”

    The Chief Press Secretary to the Benue State Governor, Sir Tersoo Kula, told The Nation that it is the administration of Governor Hyacinth Alia that has put an end to the impunity of suspected herdsmen attacks on defenceless Benue farmers.

    Kula said: “Before now, there were series of killings and the armed herdsmen operated with impunity.

    “But Governor Hyacinth Alia, through deliberate partnership with security agencies, has put a stop to wanton destruction of rural settlements and killing of farmers, and will continue to protect every Benue citizen across the 23 local government areas of the state.”

  • 2027: Seyi Makinde at the crossroads

    2027: Seyi Makinde at the crossroads

    Amid defections, internal conflict within the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and strained relations with Abuja, Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde faces significant challenges in Nigeria’s political landscape, writes Deputy Political Editor Raymond Mordi

    Politically homeless

    On January 22, 2026 (penultimate Thursday), at the Aso Rock Villa, Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde met privately with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. After the meeting, reporters asked if Makinde intended to defect, given the recent trend of opposition governors joining the All Progressives Congress (APC).

    Makinde responded, “No, I’m comfortable in the PDP,” and emphasised that his visit focused on governance, not party politics. Once a key figure in the G-5 group that influenced the 2023 presidential election, he is now the only opposition governor elected on the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) platform in southern Nigeria and is politically isolated within a divided party.

    With the 2027 general election approaching, Makinde faces internal conflict within the PDP, threats to his political relevance, and pressure to secure his developmental legacy in Oyo State. His situation highlights broader challenges in Nigeria’s democracy, where principle often competes with political survival.

    House divided against itself

    Makinde’s isolation is primarily due to internal PDP conflict rather than APC growth. The party, which held 16 states in 2015, now controls only four: Adamawa, Bauchi, Oyo, and Zamfara. This decline has intensified the personal and ideological dispute between Makinde and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister, Nyesom Wike.

    The conflict became public in December 2025. In an interview with reporters in Ibadan, Makinde claimed that during a private meeting with President Tinubu, Wike volunteered to “hold the PDP down” for the President’s 2027 re-election. Makinde called this a betrayal of the opposition’s purpose and warned of the risks of a one-party state, stressing the need for bipartisan solutions.

    Wike’s supporters responded by accusing Makinde of disloyalty and self-interest. Lere Olayinka, Wike’s aide, alleged that Makinde has never been loyal to any party or individual and referenced claims that Makinde opposed PDP’s Ademola Adeleke in the 2022 Osun governorship election to maintain his position as the sole PDP governor in the Southwest.

    The dispute escalated into an institutional split when, in November 2025, a Makinde-backed faction held a national convention in Ibadan, expelled Wike from the party, and appointed Taminu Turaki as the new leader of the National Working Committee (NWC). The Wike faction rejected this as an “illegal convention” and maintains a separate structure. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has not recognised the Turaki leadership due to ongoing court orders.

    This legal dispute is Makinde’s most immediate challenge. With five court cases pending, including two key appeals, the PDP’s ability to field candidates in 2027 is at risk. INEC has already rejected the Makinde-backed candidate for the June 2026 Ekiti governorship election, setting a concerning precedent for future national elections.

    A senior official in the Turaki-led NWC acknowledged the seriousness of the situation: “With what INEC has done… our chances of having candidates for the 2027 general election are very slim.” As a result, factions are considering contingency plans, and the Makinde bloc is reportedly exploring an alliance with the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to support its candidates.

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    Calculus of defection

    In this environment, many view Makinde’s refusal to defect as unusual. Since 2025, several PDP governors, including Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta), Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), Peter Mbah (Enugu), Siminalayi Fubara (Rivers), Douye Diri (Bayelsa), and Caleb Mutfwang (Plateau), have joined the APC. Motivations include access to federal resources, electoral security, and concerns about the PDP’s decline. The APC now has 29 governors, and Nasarawa Governor Abdullahi Sule has predicted more defections.

    Makinde is now one of only two governors in the Southwest not affiliated with the APC (Osun’s Adeleke has joined the Accord Party). Critics, including former minister Adebayo Shittu, have called him an “ingrate,” claiming his 2023 alignment with Tinubu helped secure his (Makinde’s) re-election. The recent meeting with Tinubu has increased speculation about his political future.

    Makinde frames his position as a commitment to democratic principles, emphasizing the importance of a strong opposition in Nigeria.

     Osun-based activist Comrade Waheed Saka notes that widespread defections to the APC could have long-term adverse effects, describing Makinde’s choice as risky but principled, while acknowledging the PDP’s current weakness.

    Makinde’s decision also reflects strategic considerations. Joining an APC that has seen many recent southern defections could reduce his influence. By remaining in the opposition, he maintains a distinct political identity, which could benefit him if the PDP recovers or if he seeks a national role grounded in principle.

    From rising star to political limbo

    Before the PDP’s current crisis, Makinde was widely regarded as a rising star in Nigerian politics. Alongside Imo State Governor Hope Uzodimma and Kwara State Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, he was seen as part of a new generation of governors with technocratic leanings and national ambition.

    That trajectory has since stalled. Uzodimma operates comfortably within the ruling APC. AbdulRazaq has consolidated his regional influence. Makinde, by contrast, appears stranded between a ruling party that does not trust him and an opposition party that cannot organise itself.

    “Once his colleagues began defecting, his bargaining power collapsed,” said a former PDP National Assembly member. “Politics is about blocs. Makinde now leads a bloc of one.”

    Performance versus politics

    In Oyo State, Makinde is focused on delivering results before his tenure ends in 2027. His performance will be evaluated on both political actions and tangible achievements, though some controversies remain.

    At the state’s 50th-anniversary celebrations, Makinde presented a long-term vision focused on economic growth, job creation, and institutional development. He cited his experience with Chief Bola Ige’s free education policy as an influence. His administration’s ‘Omituntun 2.0’ initiative highlights achievements, including the completion of an 11 MW Independent Power Project and securing a $100 million investment in a gas pipeline.

    Key governance achievements

    · Infrastructure development: Completion of phases of the 110 km Ibadan Circular Road, a long-envisioned project to decongest the city.

    · Human capital & welfare: Early implementation of improved salary structures for workers ahead of federal directives.

    · Economic foundations: Commissioning of a gas master plan and attracting private investment into energy infrastructure.

    · Institutional focus: Passage of an Electricity Regulation Commission Bill to create a sub-national electricity market.

    Comrade Saka offers a positive assessment, stating that Makinde has performed well in infrastructure development compared to other governors. “Fundamentally, when you talk about development, Makinde has done well in terms of infrastructure,” he said. “The circular road is a testament to his long-term vision. He has also excelled in human capital development and workers’ remuneration. Even before the Federal Government announced an increase in salaries, he had already committed to paying Oyo workers more.”

    However, he cautions that the state’s financial health will only be clear after Makinde’s tenure ends.

    This caution relates to ongoing allegations affecting Makinde’s legacy. Former Ekiti Governor Ayodele Fayose has accused Makinde of mismanaging N50 billion in federal relief funds for the 2024 Bodija explosion, a claim Makinde denies, stating only N30 billion was released and properly used. Although unproven, such allegations can affect the reputation of outgoing governors.

    2027 endgame

    With the PDP in disarray, Makinde’s influence is diminishing. His ability to shape succession in Oyo State is at risk. Although he pledged to name a preferred successor by January 2026, he has not done so, mainly due to the party’s instability. Without a functional party structure, selecting a successor is ineffective.

    Makinde’s national ambitions are also limited. Once considered a potential presidential candidate, that opportunity is now closed. His regret over supporting Tinubu in 2023 and his decision not to repeat this have strained relations with the presidency. Within the PDP, his faction remains one side of a deep internal conflict.

    Makinde’s grim scenarios for 2027

    · The PDP fails to resolve its legal issues, INEC does not recognize its candidates, and the party cannot contest effectively in Oyo or nationally. Makinde could become a governor without party support, losing political influence.

    · His bloc formalises an alliance with the ADC or another party. This would allow candidates to contest but would require Makinde to negotiate from a weaker position within a new coalition.

    · A last-minute reconciliation between the Wike and Makinde factions. Even if achieved, trust would remain low, the party’s reputation would be damaged, and Makinde would need to share power with former rivals.

    In Nigeria, outgoing governors often maintain influence by supporting loyal successors. Makinde risks losing political relevance after leaving office. The “strong institutions” he prioritises over “physical infrastructure” have not provided the expected support.

    High cost of standing alone

    Governor Seyi Makinde’s situation reflects broader issues in Nigeria’s democracy. It underscores the lack of clear ideology, the use of parties for personal ambition, and the vulnerability of institutions to legal and personal conflicts. These challenges often distract from effective governance.

    Makinde aims to uphold the principle of strong opposition, even as his party struggles with internal division. In Oyo, he may be remembered for his development achievements. In contrast, nationally, he could be remembered as the last opposition governor to warn against a one-party system, but he was unable to prevent it.

    As 2027 approaches, Seyi Makinde is fighting for both his political future and a vision of Nigerian democracy. The outcome will depend on developments in the coming months. The primary concern is that ongoing political struggles may divert attention from the development work he has promoted. His ultimate challenge will be to ensure his legacy endures despite current political uncertainty.