- By Samuel Akpobome Orovwuje
Hans J. Morgenthau warned in Politics Among Nations (1948) that politics is a struggle for power guided by interest. Power, he argued, does not restrain itself; it must be limited by ideas, institutions, and moral purpose. Decades later, Randall G. Holcombe, writing on politics as exchange in Political Capitalism: How Economic and Political Power Is Made and Maintained (2018), described a system where political loyalty is traded for access, protection, and advantage. When ideas lose value, exchange replaces conviction.
Together, these insights help explain Nigeria’s present condition. Power is expanding not because it is defended by clear beliefs, but because the political marketplace has thinned out. Ideas no longer compete; interests do. And where ideas retreat, power advances.
This helps make sense of the recent wave of governors defecting to the All Progressives Congress (APC). These moves are rarely explained in terms of policy disagreement or belief. They are framed instead around alignment and national interest. In practice, they reflect calculation in a system where federal power is concentrated and opposition looks uncertain. Party labels become temporary; access becomes permanent.
Sadly, unchecked power thrives where opposition is weak. The APC’s growing dominance is less about persuasion than gravity. Control of federal power draws actors inward. In such a climate, survival replaces belief, and silence becomes strategy. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has struggled to counter this pull. Internal disputes, leadership uncertainty, and a lack of clear direction have weakened its standing. Indecision sends a signal: that loyalty is optional and the future unclear. When a party cannot say firmly what it stands for or where it is going, it loses the authority to ask members to stay and fight.
Smaller parties and coalition efforts were expected to widen choice, but many have repeated the same mistake. The African Democratic Congress (ADC), often cited in coalition talks, illustrates the limits of alliances without shared purpose. Meetings and announcements create excitement, but without an agreed programme, leadership structure, and discipline, such coalitions remain fragile. They gather ambition, not agreement. Politics then becomes exchange in Holcombe’s sense: temporary arrangements driven by advantage rather than belief. These arrangements rarely last long enough to challenge entrenched power.
The implications for the 2027 general elections are serious and immediate. First, the field of choice is narrowing. As defections continue and opposition weakens, voters risk facing elections with fewer real alternatives. Elections may still be competitive in form, but thin in substance. When parties sound alike and stand for little, voting becomes a ritual rather than a decision.
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Second, incumbency advantage will deepen. With power concentrated and opposition fragmented, the ruling party’s reach into institutions, narratives, and resources will expand. This does not require overt abuse; imbalance alone shapes outcomes. Where competition is weak, accountability fades.
Third, voter confidence is at risk. Nigerians have shown resilience and commitment to the ballot, even under difficult conditions. But confidence depends on belief that choices matter. When mandates are transferred through defections and coalitions dissolve before taking shape, citizens begin to feel side-lined. Turnout and trust suffer when politics appears closed.
Fourth, politics will tilt further toward personalities and regions rather than programmes. Without ideology, campaigns rely on identity, fear, and short-term promises. This may mobilize support temporarily, but it weakens national cohesion and policy debate. Elections become louder, not clearer.
Finally, institutions will feel the pressure. A weak opposition and dominant executive environment discourage robust legislative oversight and independent action. Even well-meaning officeholders become cautious when the cost of dissent is isolation. None of this is inevitable. But time matters. Rebuilding ideas takes longer than building coalitions of convenience. If parties wait until election season to define themselves, the damage will already be done.
For 2027 to strengthen Nigeria’s democracy rather than hollow it out, several shifts are necessary. Defection must carry political cost, not reward. Opposition parties must settle disputes early and speak with clarity. Coalitions must be built around programmes and shared commitments, not announcements. And citizens must demand positions, not just promises.
Morgenthau reminds us that power seeks expansion. Holcombe reminds us that politics without ideas becomes exchange for advantage. Nigeria today reflects both warnings. Democracy survives not because power exists, but because it is challenged. It thrives when ideas compete and citizens choose between real alternatives. If the political marketplace remains empty, power will continue to grow unchecked—and elections will decide offices, not direction.
In the final analysis, the question before Nigeria as 2027 approaches is simple: will ideas return to politics, or will access continue to replace belief? The answer will shape not just the next election, but the character of the republic itself.
•Orovwuje is public affairs analyst.
