“Today, Nigeria stands on the threshold of the greatest transformation in its history. Over the next 20 years, the fundamental nature of its society could alter beyond recognition. Yet the direction of this change remains profoundly uncertain. Decisions made today will have a critical influence on the path the country takes. In the best case, Nigeria will enjoy a substantial boost to its development, becoming an economic engine not only for the region, but also for the whole of Africa. If the worst happens, it will see a deepening cycle of economic underperformance, social unrest, and even conflict.”
The quote above is the opening paragraph of a British Council initiated project titled: “Nigeria – The Next Generation.” When I first read the final report in 2010 I felt it was a good reflection of the state of the nation and what the youth think about the country. I find the outcomes of the report quite instructive considering the enormous challenges the country is passing through today. Our leaders will do well to revisit the report once more; hence my intervention today.
‘Next Generation’ is a series of global British Council research focusing on the attitudes and aspirations of young people, and the policies and conditions that support them in becoming creative, fulfilled and active citizens. The research projects examines young people’s views around education, employment, and lifestyle, as well as uncovering their hopes and fears for their country, their degree of international engagement and views on the wider world, and the values and beliefs that affect their lives.
To give bite to the report, a ‘Task Force’ of some eminent Nigerians was convened to explore Nigeria’s future at a time of rapid demographic, social, and economic change. The Task Force was chaired by Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, at that time the Managing Director of the World Bank and later the Minister of Finance. Members include: Alhaji Lamido Ado Bayero, Mr. Donald Duke Governor of Cross River State, 1999-2007, Mr. Frank Nweke Jnr former Minister and Director General, Nigeria Economic Summit Group, Lord Triesman Former Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State with responsibility for Africa, Prof Pat Utomi Director of The Centre for Applied Economics at Lagos Business School, and Mrs. Maryam Uwais Principal Partner, Wali Uwais & Co. There were also several individuals on the academic team.
The report stated that “the choice between success and failure rests on Nigeria’s ability to harness the power of its single greatest asset: not oil, but youth. Although the effective use of Nigeria’s vast oil resources is an important part of the story, the oil industry alone will not be able to effectively harness Nigeria’s rapidly increasing numbers of young people. As youth becomes an increasingly precious resource, Nigeria will be one of the few large countries in the world that has young adults in plentiful, and growing, supply.”
This is a honest assessment considering that Nigeria is already the eighth largest country by population. By 2030, it is estimated that the country will have an additional 68 million people, and will add a further 63 million by 2050, making it the fifth most populous nation in the world after India, China, the United States, and Pakistan. As a result, Nigeria will have a considerable and growing global influence.
However, as pointed out in the report, this is not simply about raw numbers. The world is ageing quickly. Western countries are already grappling with the burden imposed by their rapidly ageing societies. Even countries like China are now seeing a decline in the share of working-age people in their population. While a global scarcity of young adults will accelerate in the coming decades, Nigeria will remain a young country throughout most of the twenty-first century, the report predicted.
Do we have the right strategies to positively harness the country’s glaring youth asset? Unfortunately, there appears to be no clear-cut and systematic plan since the release of the report in 2010. One of the clear paths that would have allowed this critical asset work for our advantage is education, but we are all aware of the plethora of challenges confronting the sector. I’m of the opinion that before we can make positive headways a state of emergency need to be declared to totally overhaul our education system and sector.
It is instructive to note that when the final report was released in 2010, it rightly predicted that over the next 20 years, Nigeria will experience huge growth in the number of young adults in its society. It pointed out that if these young people are healthy, well educated, and find productive employment, they could boost the country’s economy and reinvigorate it culturally and politically. If not, they could be a force for instability and social unrest.
What are we witnessing nine years down the line? The heightened state of insecurity, especially violent crimes like kidnapping and banditry, has been partly blamed on the large number of idle youth without skills. Most have grown into young adults totally unprepared to face a world that has changed considerably. While some say it may be too late in the day to turn the hand of the clock, I believe with massive investment in education and strategic skills development centres to cater for those who may have “outgrown” formal schooling, we can make some progress.
So, what are the key findings of the report? Nigeria stands on the threshold of what could be the greatest transformation in its history. By 2030, it will be one of the few countries in the world that has young workers in plentiful supply. Youth, not oil, will be the country’s most valuable resource in the twenty-first century.
Secondly, Nigeria has been struggling against the demographic tide since independence. Rapid population growth has created a huge strain on the country’s economic, social and political systems. Today, just 1.2 adults care for each of the country’s children and old people.
During the past 30 years, the findings noted, the Nigerian economy has stagnated, in sharp contrast to the fortunes of natural comparators such as Indonesia. “The 1990s was a lost decade for Nigeria with per capita GDP falling to below 1980 levels.” This put a severe strain on the affairs of the nation to the extent that today, Nigeria’s demographic tide is finally turning, as population growth slows and its ‘baby boom generation’ enters the workforce. By mid-century, depending on how fast family size falls, there could be as much as a whole additional adult to support each child and old person.
Additionally, Nigeria stands ready to collect a substantial demographic dividend. If it continues with recent positive economic growth ( when the report was released in 2010), improves health standards, and harnesses a growing workforce, the average Nigerian’s income will be as much as three times higher by 2030 and over 30 million people will be lifted out of poverty.
On the other hand, if Nigeria fails to collect its demographic dividend, the seriousness of the country’s predicament should not be underestimated. Its prospects will be bleak and could be catastrophic.
Furthermore; in the worst case, Nigeria will see: growing numbers of restless young people frustrated by lack of opportunity; increased competition for jobs, land, natural resources, and political patronage; cities that are increasingly unable to cope with the pressures placed on them; ethnic and religious conflict and radicalisation; and a political system discredited by its failure to improve lives.
Demography is pushing Nigerian states and regions onto widely different economic trajectories, and could further increase inequality if measures are not taken to promote social cohesion. Demographic factors are steadily elevating Nigeria’s risk of conflict. If Nigeria fails to respond appropriately over the next decade, it could well face a demographic disaster.
Sadly, the report stated in 2010 that Nigeria is “currently poorly positioned to maximise the economic opportunities created by its demographics, despite marked improvements in the policy environment over the past decade. At present, health and education standards are low, especially in disadvantaged regions and among the poor. Many young Nigerians are ill-equipped for life in a modern economy. Young women are especially likely to be excluded from opportunities.”