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  • Seven states at 50

    Seven states at 50

    A good idea; but state creation ought to deliver more than it has

    Seven of the 36 states in the country turned 50 on February 3. They were created by the then Head of State, General Murtala Ramat Muhammed, in 1976, barely 10 days to his assassination in a coup d’etat on February 13, 1976. The seven states created on that day were Bauchi, Benue, Borno, Imo, Niger, Ogun and Ondo. This raised the number of states in the country from 12 to 19.

    Bauchi and Borno states were carved out of the defunct North-Eastern State; Benue State emerged from Benue-Plateau State; Niger State was created from the former North-Western State; Ogun and Ondo states were carved out of the old Western State, while Imo State emerged from the East Central State.

    As ‘Daily Trust’ noted, “Exactly fifty years on, the seven states have expanded significantly in population, infrastructure and political relevance. Some of them have also been further subdivided in subsequent state-creation exercises, underscoring the continuing relevance of Murtala’s decentralisation logic.

    “Gombe State was carved out of Bauchi in 1996; Yobe State emerged from Borno in 1991; Abia State was created from part of old Imo in 1991; Ekiti State was carved out of Ondo in 1996 while Benue, Niger and Ogun have remained territorially intact since 1976.”

    Of course, more states had been created in the country after 1976. On September 23, 1987 Gen. Ibrahim Babangida created Akwa Ibom (from Cross River) and Katsina (from Kaduna), bringing the total number of states in the country to 21.

    READ ALSO: PDP: Wike gets upper hand again

    Again, on August 27, 1991, Babangida created nine more states: Abia, Adamawa, Delta, Edo, Enugu, Jigawa, Kebbi, Kogi, and Yobe; bringing the number to 30.

    And, finally, on October 1, 1996, Gen. Sani Abacha created six states: Bayelsa, Ebonyi, Ekiti, Gombe, Nasarawa, and Zamfara. These brought the number of states in the country to the present 36; all created by military regimes as we have seen.

    The main reasons Muhammed created the states in 1976 included: administrative convenience and development, i.e. to decentralise government, thereby making it easier to manage and ensuring that development reached rural areas.

    Another reason was to allay the fears of the minorities by giving minority ethnic groups a stronger voice and reducing the dominance of the larger regions. It was also part of efforts to strengthen the federal structure, following the Nigerian Civil War.

    Babangida and Abacha too didn’t have significantly different reasons for creating states when they did.

    While the reasons were germaine, the snag was that most of the good aspects of the state creation were marred by the unitary system that was foisted on Nigerians by military rule, among other reasons, like corruption and misplacement of priorities on the part of some governors. Unitary system made it impossible for state governments to freely express and pursue their development choices because of certain laws that barred them from doing so. Here, we had the law barring state governments from establishing railway, and setting up their own power infrastructure, among others.

    Mercifully, some of these ‘Walls of Jericho’ that had hobbled development in the country for decades are now being dismantled.

    But, how many of these states are viable?Interestingly, despite their inability to take care of themselves, many Nigerians still continue to clamour for more states. We have at least 31 such requests cutting across the geographical zones, as at the last count.

    This is ridiculous.

    Until the advent of the Bola Tinubu administration that pumped more money into the coffers of the state governments, courtesy of fuel subsidy removal, many of the state governments could not pay the then minimum wage, not to talk of embark on serious developmental projects.

    What is particularly disappointing is that even the current National Assembly could find the time and space to discuss such an issue as creation of states in spite of the myriad problems facing the country.

    I know their main reason would be political expediency. But when would we be free from such bondage?

    It was Jean-Jacques Rousseau in ‘The Social Contract’ (1762) who said that ,”men are born free and equal but everywhere they are in chains”. Why must we subject virtually everything to this bondage of political expediency? Which mother would put hot soup on a baby’s palm simply because that baby is crying for it?

    I think it is high time we learnt to separate politics from policy. From our initial three regions (northern, western, and eastern) in 1960 to our present 36-state structure, the soldiers who took us here got it right when they said they did that because they wanted even development in the country. Ideally, state creation should lead to more development because it somewhat brings government and governance closer to the people.

    But they missed it when they imposed unitary system on us. They should have left each region to blossom according to the capacity and dreams of their founding fathers. After all, there was nothing wrong with that arrangement. It was the politics that we didn’t get right; a thing that led to elections being rigged and the people losing confidence in the electoral process.

    Unitary system has remained an albatross as it has retarded progress across board in the country. Each region had its strengths and these were being galvanised for regional development with each region paying rents and royalties to the central government before.

    To that era we must return if we are really desirous of progress. This idea of some sections waiting for others kills initiative. It is a recipe for perpetual underdevelopment.

    Many Nigerians want more states? True. Indeed, the state creation was not equitable as it favours some people more than others. I won’t name names. But then, beheading cannot be the solution to headache. If we want to correct that, let us first return to true federalism. I know that in Nigeria we talk of ‘true’ federalism. Well, if that will make us happy, let’s call it that — true federalism.

    People cannot be clamouring for more states when resources from a section of the country are used to run the entire country.

    The clamour for state creation would make sense when every state can fend for itself, not when everyone waits on Abuja which also waits on the returns from the Niger Delta to do a simple thing as pay salaries and develop the individual states.

    I want to believe that the day when we federalise such that states fend for themselves would be the end of such clamour for new states. What we have been having over the years is a political class that has been weaned too much on over-reliance rather than self-reliance.

    When it gets to that point where governors and their entire cabinet would have to put on their thinking caps to generate funds that they would spend to develop their states, then we would see a drastic reduction in the clamour for state creation.

    Beyond that, the clamour for political offices too would reduce when political aspirants know that they are the ones that have to dream dreams that would generate the funds required to run their states.

    So, seven states at 50? Should we congratulate them or not? Honestly, I don’t think we have much to celebrate if we juxtapose what has accrued to the states as revenue against the developmental projects in some, if not many of the states.

    A child born 50 years ago would have become a grown-up man or woman today. But when you have that man or woman still using diapers and waiting on the parents to feed him or her, or make some other provisions for him or her, then there is a problem.

    Although it may seem I am talking to or about only the seven states that just clocked 50; it is not so. I have only used them as metaphor. What applies to them applies to the other states as well.

    As a matter of fact, it is worse for the older states that still cannot find their feet. Yes, we may say there was little or nothing they could have done to be self-reliant under military rule because of the unitary system of government that applied then. But it is now over 26 years since the country’s return to democracy. By now, we should be charting the path towards true federalism even if we are not operating it full throttle.

    But the way things are, it doesn’t seem there is any serious attempt in that direction. Everyone seems comfortable with the present unsustainable system that provides for all, both the hardworking and the indolent.

    And that is part of why the country has stunted growth. The competition that made the regions of old to thrive is no longer there. Easy and cheap money coming from the Niger Delta via Abuja, is a disincentive to anyone to work. Of course, why work if with or without work you will still get money to spend? Even the Holy Writ says a Christian without work is a corpse.

    One of the reasons people steal state funds is because states are not generating their own funds. It is also because states are not generating what they spend that many Nigerians do not look in the direction of the state governments but rather concentrate on the centre. If their taxes form a significant part of their states’  internally-generated revenue, they would show more interest in how their sweat is spent.

    I can only imagine how far this country would have gone if the military had not killed the regional arrangement under which each part of the country was developing at its own pace.  That is one of the evils of military rule that our youths do not know and which makes them think military rule is the solution to the country’s problems. We have been there before and we didn’t get much from it. It is not their business to govern.

    All said, while we may mark the 50 years of the creation of the seven states, it is only fit and proper to use the occasion to review the state of affairs in the states vis-a-vis where we ought to be by now. It is a good occasion for introspection.

    As I pointed out earlier, it is heartwarming that some of the encumbrances that arrested development in the country are now being dismantled. Let us quickly bring them down to enable us return to true federalism and see if we won’t fly. We have crawled enough.

  • Highways are happy ways (III)

    Highways are happy ways (III)

    Those of my generation, that is, the baby boomers as well as those who are one or two generations younger are likely to recognise the phrase used as the title of this piece and others before it. For those who have forgotten, it was part of an advertisement which for several seasons ran on all media every year at Christmas time. It was sponsored by a plastics manufacturing firm which, like many such companies, has long become a victim of the malaise which has assailed the Nigerian manufacturing sector, is now extinct. The essence of that advertisement was to discourage people from driving too fast in the time leading up to Christmas. However, I doubt that this advert made much difference to its audience because the prevailing belief in those days and even now, is that the demons which inhabit our roads become especially spiteful and uncommonly ravenous at the period when an old year was being rung out. Beware, the dangers of the ember months! That remains a constant admonition so that all those travelling along any Nigerian road during that extended period are made aware of the dangers to which they were exposed. One would have thought that drivers were being urged to take extra care whilst using the road. Wrong! At least from the point of popular belief. The real message was that everyone was to ensure that they were in good standing with those tempestuous spirits that ruled the highways before making any trip on them. That popular jingle which became characteristic of the Christmas period of those days is now terminally quiet but its spirit lives on even as the echoes created by it continue to reverberate right up till now.

    You really do not have to be acquainted with laws of Physics to appreciate that your power to control a moving vehicle diminishes as the speed at which the vehicle is moving increases. It is really a common sense thing but anyone who travels along the highways in Nigeria soon observes that this piece of common sense is only conspicuous by its absence from Nigerian roads. The contempt for caution is so prominent here that it is apparent that virtually every Nigerian who sits behind the wheel of any vehicle is instantly transformed into a spirit that is every bit as capricious if not as vicious as the spirits which in popular imagination, are supposed to inhabit the road. Nigerians are notoriously lax about keeping time for any appointment but when you see any of us driving on the road, you are given the impression that everyone is in a hurry to keep an appointment for which  they whizz along the road at break neck speed. This is why accidents here are often, if not invariably described as ghastly. Many years ago, a Nigerian lady who lived in Britain was trying to describe the scene of an accident that she had seen on a British road. She was so badly shaken at the sight of the mangled vehicles at the scene of the accident that the only way she felt she could effectively convey her feelings was to describe it as a ‘Nigerian’ accident. The last time she had seen anything so horrifying was back home in Nigeria where such an appalling scene was not uncommon. Another aspect of vehicular accidents in Nigeria is that the badly mangled carcasses of the vehicle involved in an accident may remain in place, apparently forgotten long enough to be the cause of another accident. After all, the spirits are in a constant state of hunger and need to be fed. In the end therefore, those spirits conjured out of nothing in our deadly imagination are held responsible for any accident. In this scenario, the driver who may be high on some potent distilled spirits or the fumes coming off some notorious plant substance is treated like a victim of something beyond his puny human strength. You will be amazed as to how many of the drivers involved in these accidents blithely walk away unscathed from the mess they have created.

    READ ALSO: Kwara massacre belies end of Mamuda/JNIM terrorists

    Whilst it is true that driving at high speed can be exhilarating, it would be extremely foolish to ignore the dangers associated with it. For a start, just how fit for purpose are the vehicles which take to our roads at any time of day or night? The sober response to that query is that not many of them would be allowed out onto any European road. For example, in Britain, there is the dreaded MOT test which every vehicle above three years old has to pass before they are given a license to be on the road, any road at all. This test is repeated at every subsequent three year interval and any vehicle that fails the test at any point in time is immediately committed to a junk yard where it is permanently removed from circulation and scrapped. Here, we are charged for something called the road worthiness test. All you are required to do to pass the test is pay the prescribed fee whenever you renew your annual vehicle licence and you are good to go even if your vehicle is precariously balanced on three wheels at the time your renewed vehicle licence is being handed over to you. Given our shoddy vehicle licensing process, it is safe to assume that more than half of the vehicles plying Nigerian roads at any given time have no business being there at all as they are the potential cause of an accident just by being on the road at all. This is not taking into consideration the number of vehicles which have been in the care of a typical Nigerian mechanic for any length of time.

    The Nigerian mechanic is qualified to be assigned to a special species outside the human race and that is a fact, an indisputable one. I wonder who the first Nigerian mechanic was because whoever he was, he deserves a posthumous award for sheer bravery and enterprise. How did he get it into his head to take on the spirits which were in control of the vehicle engine and be initiated into their mysteries? It is unlikely that our first mechanic underwent any formal course of training. More than a century after him, the Nigerian mechanic still lacks formal training and everything considered is on the verge of becoming an endangered species. Not long ago, a mechanic apprenticeship was well sought after. Not so anymore. A mechanic workshop is, these days, a rather lonely place, denuded as it is of aspiring mechanics. The profession, if you can call it that, has no appeal to the youths who in the absence of a tertiary education diploma prefer to become apprenticed to an internet fraudster or put the rest of us in constant danger by becoming an Okada rider. After all, he does not need any period of apprenticeship for that.

    The typical Nigerian mechanic approaches his tasks by feel as he is severely limited by the simplicity of his tools and his limited knowledge of the mechanics of the engine he works on. He therefore has a cavalier attitude to his work. He is not averse to simply tossing out any defective parts or just replacing them with something that looks like the real thing as long as the vehicle he is working on can leave his workshop under its own steam. His task is not made any easier by the proliferation of the inferior or even outrightly fake replacement parts with which he carries out the needed repairs on the vehicles in his care. Today, the vast majority of vehicles on Nigerian roads have been imported after years of admittedly pampered use in Europe or the USA. For all that, they are not new, some of them being more than ten years old and no longer able to pass the fitness tests in their country of origin. These days, the spare parts needed to make those vehicles fit for service on our roads are also described as fairly used. I find it illogical that used spark plugs are preferable to brand new ones but if you put your vehicle in the hands of a mechanic in Nigeria, that is the logic you must be prepared to accept. The reality therefore is that your vehicle is not fit for the purpose of being driven on the road at any speed let alone the high speeds at which vehicles are propelled along our ricketty roads.

  • Fathers, Brothers, Sons and Daughters Nigeria Limited

    Fathers, Brothers, Sons and Daughters Nigeria Limited

    Looking at the vast tapestry of what is our nation Nigeria’s political landscape, a pattern has since independence emerged with increasing clarity over the decades—the deliberate cultivation of political dynasties, where the children and relatives of established politicians are strategically positioned to inherit power, influence, and authority. This phenomenon, neither unique to Nigeria nor entirely novel in its manifestation, has become a defining feature of the country’s democratic experiment, raising fundamental questions about representation, meritocracy, and the very essence of political succession in Africa’s most populous democracy.

    The deep taproots of dynastic politics in Nigeria stretch back to the immediate post-independence era. Chief Obafemi Awolowo, the sage of Nigerian politics and leader of the Action Group, openly encouraged his children to pursue political careers, viewing it as a natural extension of public service that ran in the family’s blood. His daughter, Tokunbo Awolowo-Dosunmu, served in various political capacities, as did other members of the Awolowo clan. This was not an isolated case. Across the country’s diverse regions, political families have long  begun to emerge, each seeking to preserve their influence across generations.

    The trend has proven remarkably resilient and geographically indiscriminate. In the North, the children of military generals and civilian administrators have transitioned seamlessly into governorship positions and legislative seats. The South-South region has witnessed similar patterns, with political godfathers ensuring their progeny occupy strategic positions in state and federal government. In the Southeast, families that dominated politics in the First Republic continue to wield considerable influence through their descendants, creating what some observers have termed a “political aristocracy” that mirrors the traditional chieftaincy system.

    Understanding this phenomenon requires appreciating Nigeria’s unique socio-cultural context. In many Nigerian societies, leadership is viewed through a communal lens rather than an individualistic one. The Yoruba concept of omoluabi—a person of good character and noble lineage—implicitly connects virtue with heritage. Similarly, in Igbo society, the ogaranya (wealthy person) is expected to groom successors who will maintain the family’s status. Northern Nigeria’s emirate system, with its centuries-old tradition of hereditary leadership, provides perhaps the clearest cultural precedent for political succession along family lines. These cultural frameworks create an environment where political dynasties feel not only natural but almost expected.

    READ ALSO: PDP: Wike gets upper hand again

    Moreover, there exists a legitimate defense of this practice. Nigeria’s constitution guarantees every citizen the fundamental right to participate in the political process, to vote and be voted for, regardless of parentage. The children of politicians are definitely Nigerians too, with inalienable rights to seek public office. To discriminate against them solely because of their lineage would constitute an infringement of these constitutional rights and would establish a dangerous precedent of political disenfranchisement based on family background.

    Likewise,history is replete with numerous examples from those who we deem as more mature democracies where political families have flourished without fundamentally undermining democratic principles. Britain produced two William Pitts who served as Prime Minister—father from 1766 to 1768, and son from 1783 to 1801 and again from 1804 to 1806. More recently, the Miliband brothers, David and Ed, both competed for Labour Party leadership, demonstrating that political ambition can indeed run in families. The Gandhi dynasty has dominated Indian politics for generations, with Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi, and more recently, Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi, all playing central roles in the Congress Party and national governance.

    The United States, often held up as the standard-bearer of modern democracy, has witnessed its share of political dynasties. The Kennedy family became American royalty, with John F. Kennedy serving as President, his brother Robert as Attorney General and Senator,  their brother Edward as a long-serving Senator and Robert’s two sons Joseph P. Kennedy II served as a United States Representative from Massachusetts, while Robert Francis Kennedy Jr, is the current United States Secretary of Health and Human Services.

    The Adams family gave America its second and sixth presidents—father John Adams and son John Quincy Adams. The Clintons transformed from Arkansas politicians into national figures, with Bill serving as President and Hillary as Senator, Secretary of State, and presidential candidate. Even Abraham Lincoln’s son, Robert Todd Lincoln, served as Secretary of War under Presidents Garfield and Arthur. The Bush family produced two presidents, a governor, and numerous influential political operatives.

    These international examples suggest that political dynasties, in themselves, do not necessarily signal democratic decay. Talent, passion for public service, and political acumen can indeed be nurtured within families, and there is nothing inherently wrong with following in one’s parents’ footsteps, whether in medicine, business, or politics.

    However, the Nigerian context introduces troubling complications that distinguish these local dynasties from their international counterparts. The critical question is not whether politicians’ children have the right to seek office, but whether they are ascending on merit or merely riding on their parents’ coattails and manipulating systems that should reward competence, vision, and integrity rather than surname and connections.

    When political parties become family enterprises, when primary elections are rigged to favour the children of these tingods, when young politicians with minimal experience or demonstrable capability are catapulted into positions of enormous responsibility simply because of whose son or daughter they are, our democracy suffers a profound injury and goes against the Napoleonic maxim, “ Without the distinction of birth or fortune”  The problem intensifies when these scions of political families display neither the intellectual capacity nor the moral character required for leadership, yet still secure positions through networks of patronage their parents have carefully constructed over decades.

    Again, a number of these Nigerian political dynasties often emerge not from genuine popular support but from the systematic abuse of institutional processes. Delegates are bought, opposition is intimidated, party structures are manipulated, and electoral processes are compromised to ensure that power remains within particular families. This creates a vicious cycle where political office becomes my “papa property” hereditary rather than a trust temporarily bestowed by the electorate, where governance becomes a family business rather than public service, and where the interests of the dynasty supersede the interests of the nation.

    The consequences are devastating. When leadership positions are reserved for political heirs regardless of merit, Nigeria loses the opportunity to benefit from fresh perspectives, innovative thinking, and the diverse talents of its vast population. Young Nigerians who possess brilliant ideas, impeccable integrity, and genuine passion for national development find themselves locked out of a system that values lineage over excellence. The implicit message becomes clear: in Nigeria, what matters is not what you know or what you can offer, but who your father or grandfather was.

    This undermines the very foundation of democratic meritocracy and perpetuates the cycles of mediocrity, corruption, and underdevelopment that have plagued the nation for decades. When incompetent leaders emerge simply because they bear the right surname, policies fail, resources are mismanaged, and the people suffer.

    Nigeria stands at a crossroads. The nation can continue down the path of political dynasties built on patronage and privilege, or it can insist that those who seek to lead—whether scions of political families or children of peasant farmers—must prove themselves worthy through demonstrated competence, integrity, and vision. The choice will determine whether Nigeria’s democracy matures into a system that truly serves its people or degenerates into an oligarchy where power is merely inherited, never earned.

  • Atiku or Obi: who emerges ADC presidential candidate (2)

    Atiku or Obi: who emerges ADC presidential candidate (2)

    You Have Ran Enough”: Former Cross River governor,  Donald Duke advising Alhaji Atiku Abubarkar to end his long-standing presidential ambition.

    Last week I ended the column by concluding that former Anambra State governor, Peter Obi, would not be an ideal ADC Presidential candidate at the 2027 Presidential election.

    But neither did I endorse

    Alhaji Atiku Abubakar as a politically fit and proper person for the party’s presidential candidacy even though one of the two would emerge.

    Today we examine Alhaji Atiku’s suitability and his chances of victory if he eventually emerges the candidate.

    Ordinarily, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar’s experience and network, his decades of experience in Nigerian politics and government should provide him a strong foundation for the leadership of the Nigerian nation except for his unchecked arrogance of being a born to rule Northerner which has led him to many avoidable mistakes.

    His  national appeal – he has built a broad coalition of supporters all over the country – should ordinarily enhance his  electability just as his background in business and other sectors of the Nigerian economy should help him drive economic growth.

    Unfortunately, now in the age of AI, his being perceived as an old guard, having been too long in the political space,  and contesting at each election cycle since the 90’s, have rendered him otiose, and out of touch with younger Nigerians as well as current realities in governance, no matter the effort to mask all these.  It’s comeuppance and all these are now bound to combine to rob him of any such opportunity.

    READ ALSO: Kwara massacre belies end of Mamuda/JNIM terrorists

    Past allegations of corruption, not limited to Nigeria, would also negatively, impact his chances – and here I am not relying only on President Obasanjo’s deliberate, mostly hyperbolic de – marketing of his one – time Vice.

    Nor can we forget that Atiku has also made the mistake of unreasonably discounting most Nigerians’ crave for rotational presidency.

    More than the above, however, are  his personal failings which have already rendered him unfit to be elected President of a huge multi- ethnic, multi- religious country like Nigeria.

    These are so obvious, and negative, that only a very committed, but limited number of his own political party members can feel obliged to vote for him at the election.

    Come with me as we navigate these personal failings in my article of 27 November, ’22.    

    Titled:’Atiku’s Long Running Superiority Complex That May End Up Aborting His Presidential Ambition’, it reads as follows, though now significantly edited for space:

    My first received impression of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar was that of an arrogant, condescending Hausa-Fulani senior customs officer, who considered himself superior to all – thanks to two friends of mine – also customs officers -both now long retired, one of who actually worked directly  with him at the Lagos International Airport, Ikeja.

    This view got further confirmation when I saw the entitlement mentality he exhibited while pursuing his ambition to be Chief MKO Abiola’s Vice Presidential candidate, for no other reason than that he was a protégé of the powerful General Shehu Musa Yar’ Adua. The unimaginable intra-party crisis that followed the choice of Babagana Kingibe did not help. Of course, I was all the while rooting for Kingibe in my column in a Lagos evening newspaper edited by my friend, Banji Ogundele. 

    Vice President Atiku has demonstrated a striking lack of patience in waiting  to take his turn, the reason I recently captioned one of my articles on this column as “Atiku Abubakar: Desperation is Your Name”.

    Underpinning his desperation is his superiority complex. He so much believed he was better than his boss, former president Olusegun Obasanjo, that he actually wanted to supplant him as PDP candidate in the 2003 presidential election.

    Let us hear how the Nobel Laureate, Professor Wole Soyinka put it while answering a question at the special presentation of his book, “Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes?: Gani’s Unfinished Business”,  at the Freedom Park, Lagos:

    ” Before the PDP primaries in January 2003, Obasanjo got everyone he knew could reach me on the surface of the earth including Yemi Ogunbiyi and my son, to get me to help him intercede when it was clear that (Abubakar) Atiku was in a position to take his job. He knew Atiku had a lot of regard for me and calls me ‘Uncle’.

    “The pressure was intense. Of course, I could not have knelt before Atiku not to embark on a course of action that would lead to his boss’ disgrace. But I can confirm to you that Obasanjo as President knelt down before Atiku so that he would not lose his job”. “But I warned Atiku that for making Obasanjo to kneel down for you, be sure you would have to pay heavily for that. I guess my warning came to pass if you remember Atiku’s dramatic change of fortune once Obasanjo was sworn in for a second term of office.”

    That is vintage Atiku.

    Another instance when Atiku demonstrated his belief in being superior to everybody was when he took peremptory action, though coyly, in his choice of Ben Obi as his running mate in the 2007 presidential election.  Chief Bisi Akande captured it as follows in his Autobiography, ‘My Participations’, Pages 485 – 486: “In 2007, we formed a party, the AC, with Atiku Abubakar. We agreed that Atiku should be our presidential candidate but with the understanding he would run with Bola Tinubu.  

    One day after we had nominated Atiku as our presidential candidate, one young man came and gave me a form from INEC. I told him I could not sign a blank form, and that I, as Chairman, must know the name that would be filled in the form. The young man, Bashir Yusuf Ibrahim, must have been the organising right- hand man of Atiku. The following morning, he came again with Lawal Kaita. Kaita begged me and said it was Ben Obi whom Atiku had chosen as his running mate behind our back. So I signed the form because I believed that as the candidate, Atiku had the right to choose his running mate. We, however, believed that Atiku should have chosen his running mate from the AC even if he was no longer favorably disposed to Tinubu. With Atiku, the party will be strong in the North, but because of the preponderance of PDP in the South East and the South – South, it would face more resistance in that area. Obasanjo was stepping down from the Presidency. Therefore, the Yoruba, even the few that benefited from his arrogant rule, would no longer be obliged to vote for PDP”.

    You can see in how Atiku tried to trick Chief Akande into signing a blank ‘cheque’ that he was, indeed, being unduly pompous; all in the attempt to show that he was wiser than all. That was apart from the way in which he unilaterally chose Obi as his running mate, in a political party which  he did not own, and where you had the likes of Tinubu and Akande.

    What could be more audacious?”

    That exactly is Atiku, and it is what Governor Wike has been saying about his unreliability. Any rational person would expect that he would, at the very least, let the Chairman of the party know who he intended to choose as running mate.  But Atiku so believes in his superiority, “being of the Nigerian Aryan race”, he thinks he could get away with just about anything, which is what he does in whatever political party be belongs.

    Two other events are worth recalling. One Sunday in The Nation, absolutely unknown to both of us, it so happened that Tatalo Alamu and I wrote two very scathing articles about Alhaji Atiku, the candidate of the AC. Indeed, I actually went ahead to endorse General Muhammadu Buhari only to hear later, that the Monday after, emissaries of the Atiku campaign organisation visited with Ashiwaju to remonstrate against the two articles.

    The other event was much more momentous. Again to ‘My Participations’ we go, pages 429 – 430 where Chief Akande brought into bold relief, the incredible support General Muhammadu Buhari enjoyed in the North in 2007.

    He wrote: ”During the 2006 electioneering campaigns, as the National Chairman of AC, I was leading the party’s meetings and campaigns to most of the emirate capitals and cities of Northern Nigeria, crisscrossing Buhari’s ANPP in the political spaces of the North. We were trying to market Atiku Abubakar. One day, according to our schedule based on police permit, we were to hold a public rally at a particular open concourse in Jalingo. Buhari’s ANPP too was granted a police permit to address his rally a few days after our own rally at the same venue. As our aircraft was descending into Jalingo, I saw a large crowd of party enthusiasts in the bowl of the venue. I was secretly jubilant that we were being welcomed by such size of crowd. As we touched down, our party leaders told us that the venue had to change. I was wondering as to how we would evacuate such a large crowd. It was alarming to hear that the crowd I saw at our supposed venue were reported to have come to wait and catch a glimpse of Buhari at the ANPP campaign being anticipated a few days after our rally. The people had come to avoid harmful jostling among Buhari’s die-hard supporters at the expected date”. “When it became impossible to block their coming or prevent their intended waiting, the police had to advise AC to look for another venue. In our own case, the practice was to provide fund for transportation and logistics in advance, to mobilise our party loyalists. I was made to understand that Buhari would advance nothing for mobilisation, yet his enthusiasts would travel by foot, or ride on donkey, days ahead to beat the time. Such was Buhari’s charisma in the political space of the entire Northern Nigeria”.

    Yet Atiku insisted, as usual, on being his party’s presidential candidate. He would even follow that up by singularly selecting his running mate.

    The same thing is playing out in his PDP. But in Wike, Atiku has met more than his match.

    Believing Wike was a person he could easily wrong foot, having coyly beaten him to the presidential candidacy of their party, the first thing he told him when he visited Wike’s house after their party’s convention was: “Ayu must go”. He had expected Wike to jump at that but instead, he was asked why? And although he it was who said that since the presidential candidate is from the North, the party Chairman should come from the South for the sake of fairness, and equity, he would later begin to say other things, claiming he hasn’t the power to effect what he jubilantly promised.

    Such perfidy.

    That exactly is how Atiku’s superiority complex and cunning, not forgetting his entitlement mentality, and several allegations of corruption, have all caught up with him that these human frailties will now end up being the final nail on the coffin of his presidential ambition.

    It is precisely this ego-maniacal superiority complex that would not let him see the greed, and the unfairness, that out rightly perfume the North, holding tightly to all the consequential positions in the PDP, namely, the Presidential candidacy, the party Chairmanship as well as the Director- Generalship of his campaign. It is only fair that the Wike-led Group of 5 is stubbornly, but righteously, standing up to this one-upmanship.

    Without a doubt, Alhaji Atiku’s arrogance, coyness, not to say lies, perfidy and unreliability should, in a serious political party, render him unsuitable to be chosen as the ADC’s candidate for the 2027 Presidential election or as the president of any country,  even Myanmar.

    What then should the party do?

    In the first place, not many Nigerians think that both Atiku and Obi would still be in the ADC by the time of the election. It is even not unreasonable to suggest that one of them is behind one of the two newly registered political parties. Whatever happens on the long run, ADC will be stuck with one of the two politically unfit candidates and Nigerians can only wish them the defeat ADC – a mere party for hire – so richly deserves.

  • Rivers State politics: What you see is not what you get

    Rivers State politics: What you see is not what you get

    The former Governor of Rivers State and current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, his erstwhile political mentee and current Governor of the state, Siminalayi Fubara, and the Rivers State House of Assembly (RSHA) led by the Speaker, Rt. Hon.  Martins Amaewhule, have been engaged in a fierce horse-back battle over the control of Rivers State politics. In every normal war, the combatants end up at the negotiation table.

    Negotiating an end to the Rivers State crisis was facilitated by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu more than once. The first time he attempted it on 18 December, 2023, his promising efforts were trashed, and each of the combatants had a bloody nose to show for the intransigence. On 11 May, 2025, during his suspension from office as governor, Fubara said, at a programme of tributes to the late Chief E.K. Clarke: “[To] make statements against the minister and the president … is not what I need now. … [Do] you think I am even interested in going back [to office as governor]? … Don’t you see how [much] better I look? … If I have my way, I say it here, this is an altar of God, I don’t wish going back there.  My spirit has left that place long ago.”

    Probably noticing what seemed to be battle fatigue, the President made another effort at brokering peace on 26 June, 2025, and this appeared to have been successful. Minister Nyesom Wike was reported to have remarked at the reconciliatory meeting: “I want to give God the glory that today is the 26th of June 2025, that peace has finally returned to the state. … We all agreed to work together with the governor, and the governor also agreed to work together with all of us.” He was further reported to have said: “Just like humans, you have disagreements, and then you also have a time to settle your disagreements – and that has been finally concluded today. We have come to report to Mr. President that this is what we have agreed. So, for me, everything is over, and I enjoin everybody to work together. There is no more acrimony.”

    READ ALSO: PDP: Wike gets upper hand again

    Governor Fubara was also reported to have said: “For me, it’s very important that this day has come to be. What we need for the progress of Rivers State is peace, and by the special grace of God this night, with the help of Mr. President and the agreement of the leaders of the state, peace has returned.” It was gratifying to see the FCT minister in a warm handshake with suspended Rivers State Governor, Siminalayi Fubara, at the Presidential Villa. It was also pleasing to see Fubara with the same show of camaraderie with suspended RSHA Speaker, Martins Amaewhule. Seeing the trio, along with other lawmakers and stakeholders, in a crescent-shaped photo with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu was equally joyful to behold. Another cause for optimism was that, on 28 June, 2025, both Fubara and Amaewhule attended the burial of Wike’s uncle in Port Harcourt.

    Considering the seeming renewed amity, on 17 September, 2025, the 6-month State of Emergency imposed on Rivers State on 18 March, 2025 to safeguard peace and security in the state was lifted, and the nation was justifiably relieved. But the amity did not endure.  Grumblings started soon after, and impeachment proceedings against Governor Fubara and his deputy were initiated in the House of Assembly. Then some lawmakers made a public appeal to their colleagues not to proceed with the impeachment process, but rather explore political solutions to the crisis. Again, soon after, those four legislators reversed their appeal and restated their commitment to the impeachment, alleging that the governor was uncooperative.

    The crisis was compounded by a 16 January, 2026 court order, sought by Governor Siminalayi Fubara and his Deputy Prof. Ngozi Nma-Odu, restraining the Chief Judge of Rivers State from constituting the panel of seven constitutionally required to consider the grounds of impeachment and equally restraining the RSHA from continuing with the impeachment process. Some saw this as meaning that the impeachment process had reached a dead end, and mocked the legislators for embarking on a failed political mission. Others also derided Wike who was believed to be the one pushing the legislative endeavour.

    Before then, sixteen members of the House of Assembly had defected to APC, and Governor Fubara also defected to the party thereafter. With the governor’s defection, he was declared the new leader of APC in Rivers State by the National Chairman of the party, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda. This declaration was reiterated by the National Secretary of APC, Senator Ajibola Basiru, who also underscored the fact that Wike was not a member of APC. In fact, the support for the governor created acrimony between Minister Wike and the National Secretary who went as far as advising Wike to resign from President Tinubu’s cabinet, if he prioritised Rivers State politics.

    This sequence of support for Governor Fubara made Minister Wike’s detractors to make him the butt of jokes and taunts presumably for having been used and dumped by President Tinubu and APC. In typical schadenfreude fashion, they rejoiced at what they saw as Wike’s political misfortune. In fact, some had already started to sing Wike’s Nunc dimittis – a song indicating the “conclusion of labor” and symbolising “the end of a long, challenging task or season of service, akin to a ‘farewell’ or a well-earned rest.” Some counselled mockingly that, since in their opinion he had become a political spent force already being given signs that APC no longer had much use for him, Wike should relocate outside Nigeria to enjoy his acquired wealth. Even otherwise respectable public analysts painted a gloomy picture of Wike’s political fate.

    Then on 26 January, 2026, the APC primaries for the 21 February, 2026 bye-elections for the Ahoada East II and Khana II Rivers State House of Assembly seats held. The former was won by Mrs. Bulabari Henrietta Loolo, and the latter by Napoleon Ukalikpe, and both were Wike’s supporters. This has befuddled many who had been pontificating magisterially about Wike’s presumed declining political clout or impending political doom and Fubara’s unchallengeable ascendancy in the state’s branch of APC.

    Again, Wike was in Port Harcourt on 30 January, 2026 for the launching of Rivers State Senatorial Districts and Local Government Areas coordinators of the Renewed Hope Ambassadors for the support of President Tinubu in the 2027 elections. At the event which was not attended by Governor Fubara, Wike addressed a massive crowd and alleged that the state government had denied the group access to the Yakubu Gowon Stadium which was the originally-intended venue for the programme. This allegation has since been denied by the Fubara administration. Wike also said: “I thank Mr. President for supporting the Joint Coalition to produce the candidates for February 21 state constituency elections. Mr. President has given the Joint Coalition [the challenge] to make sure [that] in Khana Constituency II, we support Mrs. Loolo; in Ahoada State Constituency II, we support Napoleon Ukalikpe.”

    Moreover, a Grand Civic Reception was organised on 31 January, 2026 in Ogu, in honour of Minister Wike by the Wakirike Ethnic Nationality of Rivers State. The Chairman of the Central Planning Committee, who is also the Chairman of the Rivers Ijaw People’s Congress, Senator George Sekibo, told Wike in his welcome address: “Your Excellency, our gratitude knows no bounds. Words alone are insufficient to convey our appreciation for giving us opportunities and benefits that by ordinary human effort we might not have attained. … The Wakirike people will forever remain grateful to you, your family and your kindred.”

    The Chairman of the occasion, High Chief (Dr.) Wilcox Idaminabo, also told Wike: “The Wakirike people said I should tell you that … wherever you lead, we shall follow. …Whatever you tell us to do, we shall do.” The Chief Host, Hon. Boma Iyaye, told the FCT minster, “You’re my political creator”; and Hon. Linda Stewart, on behalf of other Wakirike members of the state legislature told Wike: “You’re the wind behind our sails.” Furthermore, Hon. Akuro Tobin, the Executive Chairman of Okrika Local Government Area, called Wike “The leader of Rivers State Politics.” In response, Wike assured his hosts: “Go home and sleep very well, with your two eyes closed. We are in-charge.”

    In a 28 January, 2026 interview, Channels Television’s Bukola Coker claimed, regarding Wike: “It’s a healthy consensus that many do not like his politics in Rivers State.” Wike’s Senior Special Assistant on Public Communication and New Media, Lere Olayinka, objected, and asked Coker who the conductor of the poll was to justify the use of the word “many”.

    Bukola Coker also asked Lere Olayinka whether the minister had got the message that APC was getting fed up with his interference in Rivers State politics, considering the public statements by some APC functionaries, the latest of which was from Daniel Bwala, President Tinubu’s Special Adviser on Policy Communication, who said that the president had adequately compensated Wike for his support of the president. Similarly, Geoffrey Uzono, another Channels Television interviewer, asked whether Wike got the “proxy signalling [or indirect message] of the Presidency” to Nyesom Wike “to taper or back off” Rivers State APC politics.

    To this question, Lere Olayinka responded: “A lot of things that people come on television to say is different from what happens behind the scene.” The National Secretary of APC also said, in a 29 January, 2026 interview with Nifemi Oguntoye of TVC News: “It is not through press statements that you … articulate real politics. Real politics are done behind closed doors.”

    On Wike, Senator Ajibola Basiru noted: “He is an avowed supporter of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu even though not a member of [our] political party. … So, as somebody who is interested in the success of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Rivers State is critical to that success, … definitely he [Wike] would be engaged and he’s being engaged on the amicable resolution of the issue in Rivers State as expected.” This has blindsided political analysts who had been citing the National Secretary’s express support for Governor Fubara and Senator Basiru’s open disagreement with Wike as unmistakable indications of Wike’s irreversibly declining influence in APC and Rivers State politics.   

    Notably, Wike was one of the few senior officials who were at the airport to bid President Tinubu farewell when he was leaving for Turkey on 26 January, 2026, and he was there again, among four or so senior civilian officers who welcomed the president back to Nigeria on 31 January, 2026.

    It could therefore be concluded that, to a large extent, in Rivers State politics, what you see is not what you get.

  • Tinubu’s week of resolve: when reform met rage

    Tinubu’s week of resolve: when reform met rage

    Last week was another clear step forward in the long journey President Bola Ahmed Tinubu set Nigeria upon since May 29, 2023. It was an eventful week, and not a single day was without significance. Yet, if one moment stood out as both momentous and consequential, it was Tuesday’s meeting at the State House with the leadership of the World Bank, led by its Managing Director of Operations, Anna Bjerde.

    It was momentous because Tinubu used the opportunity to tell the world, again, what his intentions are. It was consequential because, in the same breath, he laid bare the humanity of leadership: that reform is not merely a policy choice; it is a sacrifice, a deliberate refusal of temptations that have swallowed many administrations before his.

    When he spoke to the World Bank team, the President did not pretend that Nigeria’s reforms were painless. He did not deny that the first reaction was hardship. Instead, he reached for language that captured the psychology of difficult governance: “Since we’ve gone into this tunnel of reform, we have our hands on the plow and we’re never going to look back.”

    That sentence was a declaration of stamina. It was also a warning to those who profit from disorder.

    Then came the confession that made the room feel even more serious. Tinubu openly acknowledged the seductive “quantum of money” that leaders can quietly harvest in a corrupt environment, especially through fuel subsidy and multiple foreign exchange windows. “It’s difficult for a leader to look the other way… from an opportunity that can give him quantum of money in subsidy regime… in multiple exchange… give it up,” he said.

    In that moment, Tinubu was saying something profound: that greed is often the first enemy of reform. It is the invisible hand that keeps nations on life support. And if his presidency is to mean anything beyond another turn at power, he must be the leader who refuses personal enrichment and instead chooses the harder reward of history.

    READ ALSO: PDP: Wike gets upper hand again

    But Tinubu did not stop at moral clarity. He went further to reveal purpose.

    Nigeria, he said, is “the heart of the continent,” and the only responsible path is to strengthen the economy for the sake of the country’s young population and vast arable land. He spoke about mechanisation, agriculture, and productivity, not as abstract dreams but as programmes already in motion.

    “There’ll be zonal mechanization centers to help the farmers,” he disclosed, adding that the government is working on improved seedlings and wants the World Bank to support the process.

    He then tied agriculture to industry, referencing the petrochemical sector’s growing output and the need to convert that advantage into local fertiliser production that raises yields. The goal, he said, is to move farmers “from ordinary small-scale holders to huge cooperative… farmers that can bring opportunities to Nigerians.”

    This was where the meeting became more than a diplomatic courtesy. Tinubu was effectively telling the World Bank: Nigeria is not improvising. There is a plan. And the plan has reached the stage where global partners must support the private sector to become the engine of jobs and productivity.

    He asked the World Bank to accelerate financing options and “tip the model” in favour of growth, insisting that bureaucracy must be cut and risk pushed in ways that develop skills and unlock investment.

    His confidence was matched by his insistence on transparency and accountability. “Reform is a continuous exercise… transparency, accountability… We’re not looking back,” he said.

    And then came the validation. Bjerde, in what can only be described as a remarkable endorsement, said Nigeria is now frequently cited globally as an example of “steady, credible reform leadership.” She noted that the government’s consistency and the evidence of positive results have built confidence among investors, policymakers, and the private sector.

    But the week was not all about reform and financing.

    By Wednesday, the President’s attention shifted sharply to a different national emergency, one that reminded the country that prosperity cannot take root where terror is allowed to bloom.

    In Kaiama Local Government Area of Kwara State, suspected Boko Haram terrorists carried out a beastly massacre, killing more than 160 people in rural communities. Tinubu’s response was swift, decisive, and unmistakably angry.

    He ordered the deployment of an army battalion to the affected area and announced the establishment of a new military command to spearhead Operation Savannah Shield. He condemned the killings as “cowardly and beastly,” describing the attackers as heartless for choosing soft targets in their doomed campaign of terror.

    On Thursday, he met with Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq to receive updates, and further directed close collaboration between federal and state agencies to provide immediate relief and support to the affected communities. He also made it clear that the perpetrators would not escape justice. “They will not go scot-free,” he vowed.

    Then came Friday, and with it, another reform, this time in a sector Nigerians love instinctively, but which has not been fully harnessed economically: sports.

    In a message posted on his verified X handle, Tinubu unveiled a sweeping sports-sector reform, ordering a reset of sports funding from the 2026 fiscal year. He reminded Nigerians that the country won an “unprecedented 373 medals across all sports in 2025,” describing sports as one of Nigeria’s strongest brands; a unifier that breaks fault lines and builds community.

    But again, Tinubu insisted on honesty. For too long, he said, sports funding was slowed by bureaucracy, fragmented across institutions, and released too late for proper preparation. Infrastructure development and maintenance, he noted, have also been neglected.

    To change the story, he directed the relevant ministries and the Budget Office to ensure adequate annual provisions for sports infrastructure, programmes, and international participation, with funds released immediately once the budget is passed and assented to. “Nigerian athletes deserve certainty, not excuses,” he declared.

    He also announced that allocations currently spread across MDAs would be reviewed, streamlined, and transferred into a unified funding framework under the National Sports Commission.

    The reforms, he said, are anchored on the Renewed Hope Initiative for Nigeria’s Sports Economy (RHINSE), positioning sports as a driver of job creation, tourism, investment, and global influence.

    Even beyond the week’s big-ticket moments; the World Bank engagement, the Kaiama outrage, and the sports-sector reset, President Tinubu’s itinerary carried the quieter signals of how he sees leadership: as a constant stitching together of nation, party, culture and purpose.

    On Sunday, he congratulated the APC Lagos spokesman, Mogaji Oluseye Oladejo, at 60, describing him as a dependable party man whose clarity of purpose and disciplined loyalty helped strengthen the progressive family in Lagos. In the same breath of national reflection, the President also paid tribute to Fela Anikulapo Kuti, after the Afrobeat pioneer became the first African recipient of the Recording Academy’s Grammy Lifetime Achievement Award. Tinubu called him “a giant,” a fearless voice of the people whose courage and creativity reshaped global sound, a reminder that Nigeria’s influence is not only in crude oil or currency charts, but also in culture.

    On Tuesday, he celebrated NNPC board chair, Ahmadu Musa Kida, at 65, praising a career that helped shape Nigeria’s oil sector. On Wednesday, he hailed Professor Jacob Kehinde Olupona at 75, spotlighting scholarship and global intellectual excellence, while also honouring Niger Delta entrepreneur Kestin Pondi for service, enterprise and peace-building.

    Thursday brought the birthday message to Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, a nod to people-centred governance, and a strategic meeting with APC leaders and National Assembly heads as the party moved towards inclusive conventions and congresses.

    Then Friday, amid the intensity of reform, he played Father of the Day at Bello Matawalle’s children’s wedding fatiha, a symbolic reminder that power, too, has its human moments.

    And perhaps most tellingly, he celebrated Prof. Ali Pate and Anna Adeola Makanju on the Devex Power 50 List, quietly projecting Nigeria’s renewed hope: competence, credibility and global relevance.

    In the end, last week revealed something Nigerians are beginning to see more clearly: Tinubu’s presidency is being shaped around one stubborn idea; that Nigeria must be rebuilt through systems that work, not sentiments that entertain.

    The same philosophy that guided his appeal to the World Bank; cut bureaucracy, empower private enterprise, invest strategically, and stay the course, is the philosophy behind his security response in Kaiama and his sports funding reform.

    It is the tunnel of reform, with different stations. And as the President said, his hands are on the plow. He is not looking back.

  • Arms and the nation

    Arms and the nation

    Democracy and the spectre of remilitarisation

    After almost three decades of uninterrupted peace and tranquility, post-military democracy in Nigeria has entered an interesting phase. What with the uncovering of a plot by some military personnel to forcibly terminate the civilian administration in the country in a bloodfest that would have made the first military uprising in the country look like a Christmas carol. The whole plot was beginning to be enveloped in a fictional halo with initial vehement denial followed by protracted silence and an eerie make belief that all was well.

     That was until the gory details began to seep into the public domain. But having escaped the worst of the devil’s scenarios, this is where utmost caution and maximum circumspection are also required. As the dragnet seems to spread hauling in more influential suspects and the hitherto unknown depth of the plot comes to worrisome focus, the government will need all the tact and wisdom it could muster to manage the fall-out and possible international backlash.

       Obviously miffed and displeased that men under his command could contemplate such a dastardly act not to talk of putting him near the top of the list of principal targets, the former Chief of Defence Staff now Minister of Defence, General Christopher Musa, has been making apocalyptic statements about the wages of military rebellion. This is injudicious and akin to prejudging the outcome of the trial. It should be noted that this is the first time in the history of the country that a public military arraignment for coup-plotting will be taking place under the auspices of a civilian administration. Complications and legal entanglement loom, so is mismanagement of critical information.

       In retrospect, perhaps it was a tad optimistic and probably naïve to imagine that we have permanently seen off the back of military interlopers in our political process. Having battled them to terminal weariness and institutional exhaustion, many had hope that this would be enough to deter the military class from ever contemplating a disruption of the country’s political progress again. Although they had been forced to retreat to the barracks with their tail between their legs, suffering heavy blows to their prestige and professional standing in the society, it was not enough to prevent their heirs from dreaming of la gloire. Their forebears having tasted sour grapes, the children’s teeth are permanently set at the edge. Whatever the terrible casualties and the threat of summary execution, coup-making is the occupational opium of a particular class of soldiers particularly on the West African sub-continent. The reasons are both historical and sociological.

    READ ALSO: Kwara massacre belies end of Mamuda/JNIM terrorists

      Arms and their bearers with their monopoly of the instrument of violence and coercion are fundamental and instrumental to the maintenance and perpetuation of the state and its principal institutions, whether modern, traditional or ancient. It is said that the state began when traditional marauders offered protection to those they have oppressed and terrorized in exchange for certain privileges. With that human society evolved apace and division of labour took root with the former tormentors maintaining internal order while warding off external predators. This is the origin of states, empires and nations.

    No matter the evolutionary trajectory of different segments of human society and whatever its colouration or incarnation, the role of the state as the prime custodian and monopolist of power and coaxed cooperation appears sacrosanct and often seems divinely ordained. The centrality of arms and their bearers to this arrangement cannot be overemphasized. This centrality looms even larger in all its patriarchal and authoritarian essence in nations where there is no elite consensus, where the instruments of governance are weak and enfeebled by human and political frailties, where the authority and legitimacy of the democratic order are vanishing and where the state itself has become a macabre joke as a result of the activities of non-state and anti-state actors. This is where and when the bearers of arms could turn their weapons on the state and the society at large.

     This centrality of arms and their bearers appears to be the bane of most postcolonial nations inaugurated by colonial force of arms, particularly on the West African subcontinent where you have coup-prone and coup-ridden nations struggling with existential traumas as a result of the inability of the political elite to reorganize and reinvent the scrambled pieces left behind for them by departing colonial masters. By its classic definition, a coup d’etat is a seminal rupture, a violent abridgement; an abrogation and decapitation of the state by force of arms. In West Africa, only Senegal and Cameroons- in spite of its doddering and amnesiac leader- have been spared the irruption of post-independence military violence. The rest have at one time or the other come under the hammer of armed rule. As we speak, Equatorial Guinea, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad and Gabon are under one form of military rule or the other, with Benin Republic recently close to toppling over.

       It is an intriguing irony that Nigeria, the jewel in the crown of a Black Renaissance, has been spared the best and worst of military rule. The best of military rule occurs when the military, despite its fundamental illegitimacy, acts as a modernizing and catalyzing agent spurring the nation to momentous infrastructural heights and accelerated economic development which in turn facilitates the emergence of a buoyant and economically independent political society which is the bedrock of national stability and a sine qua non for democratic advancement in any nation. This was what seemed to have happened in Indonesia, Turkey , Egypt and in Ghana and Rwanda to a lesser extent.

        The worst of military rule occurs when army dominion mutates or ossifies into a privatized kleptocracy under a leader and his gang which shuts out the prospects of genuine egalitarian development and economic progress. The nation reels from abject poverty and the whimsical cruelties of absolutist rule. It is a double jeopardy, neither democracy nor development. Yet if Nigeria seems to miss out on its visionary military messiah who would have gifted the country with landmark political reconfiguration and accelerated economic growth, the centrifugal forces and micro-pluralism of power centres that gives the country a negative equilibrium that has also made it impossible for a brutal despot to last for long.

       The bitter and protracted struggle of the Nigerian people which eventually saw off military rule attests to this capacity for heroic resistance.  As the history of the First Republic and the aborted Babangida Transition  also attest, whenever the injury and casus belli are located in the most politically conscious and advanced sectors of the multi-national society, one can be sure that something will give eventually. Elementary political wisdom suggests that one does not toy or tangle with the tail of the cobra for trifles.

      It is perhaps this capacity for resistance and innate abhorrence of tyranny that has bred a certain complacency and languid somnolence in the Fourth Republic. In our collective innocence, we might have come to the idyllic conclusion that military irruption after twenty seven years of uninterrupted civilian rule has become a terminal aberration. In any case, the country has become so radically reconfigured, its military installations so decentralized and the communication network so devolved that no reasonable or rational soldier will attempt any “I Brigadier Konkobilo” fancy stuff without contemplating the grave and suicidal consequences of such infantile folly. This is why the news of the putative putsch must have jolted many. But we have forgotten that every Rome must produce its own barbarians and that eternal vigilance is the price of democratic freedom.

     Perhaps institutional memory might be of some help. Whether seen or unseen, whether active or inactive, the military have always loomed large in the post-independence political imaginary of the nation. Military gossip has it that General Mohammadu Buhari, in his customary self-righteousness, used to privately dismiss and sneer at his military nemesis and bête noire, General Ibrahim Babangida, as one of those politicized soldiers he did not wish to have anything to do with. Perhaps Buhari was referring to Babangida’s cosmopolitan suavity and his urban ubiquity which did not conform with his (Buhari’s) rigid model of the puritanical officer. Yet on balance and in the final analysis, no officer has proved more dangerously politicized than the general from Daura. 

      Before the first coup,  military life was shrouded in secrecy, stealth and remote inaccessibility. The barracks were off-limit and off-bounds to those who had no business there. Military ranks elicited generalized awe but they made no sense to the wider public. As a youth, the writer remembers a rare and iconic picture of Brigadier Julius Ademulegun flanked by two other military top guns splashed on the front page of the Daily Times in late 1964. Yours sincerely then asked his father whether the man was the head of his organization, by which one meant the Boys’ Brigade. The old man screamed in consternation at the impertinence. “Come and hear this boy ooo!!! Don’t you know that these are the people who can scatter the country?” 

      A few months after, the military did scatter the country. Unfortunately, the brigadier was among the prime casualties and up till this moment, his body and that of Latifa, his spouse, have not been found. Gleanings from credible intelligence sources of the period suggest that it was not the first time elements in the army had canvassed for a forcible take-over of the country. In 1964 during a brief constitutional crisis when the president, Nnamdi Azikiwe, declined to call on the prime minister, Abubakar Tafawa-Balewa, to constitute a new cabinet on the grounds of the widespread irregularities that characterized the elections, it was reported that a group of officers approached Zik to endorse a forcible termination of the government. But the shrewd and wily Owelle of Onitsha demurred. He was possibly aware of the extant balance of force and the fact that he did not have the constitutional right to deploy troops. When the military eventually struck a year and a few months after, Zik was at sea undertaking a luxury cruise in the Caribbean.

        Even then, had the democratic tradition and culture been stronger and more vibrant and had the fragile elite consensus held together in the face of crisis and uncertainty, the rump of Balewa’s cabinet as led by the then Senate President Nwafor Orizu would have fought off the minatory intimidation and blackmailing antics of General Aguiyi-Ironsi. But holding each other in bitter distrust and resentment, they caved in, ushering their country through the dark passage of hell. Judging by current development, it would seem that the political class in Nigeria have learnt nothing and forgotten nothing.

  • Enter the new sawdust Caesars

    Enter the new sawdust Caesars

    Exactly sixty years after, the old military demon has returned to haunt the nation, after three republics including one that died in vitro and after twenty six years of interrupted civilian governance the longest by any stretch in the history of the country. But it will be extremely naïve to think that two different eras are the same in historic import. You cannot step into the same river twice.  No two historical epochs can be more different and dissimilar in nature and texture than the three-region Nigeria of 1966 and the thirty-six state nation of 2026.

    This being the first time in the history of the country that a full court martial is taking place under a civil administration, it is a totally uncharted territory for country and people. Consequently, it is mandatory that certain factors and indicators are closely monitored. For example, it is curious that for a politically conscious people, the reaction of the people to the coup plot and its sanguinary remit has been tepid and apathetic suggesting a dissociation of civic consciousness or a disavowal of politics that is as ominous as it is worrisome in import. It is just possible that the full depth of the plot has not been plumbed and the inauguration of a military tribunal or the process of trial may activate a sleeper-cell already embedded. This may lead to unintended consequences. It is these factors we enumerate below as a memory guide to those who will be taking the important decisions.

    1 International hostility to the trial itself no matter the merits and compelling nature of the evidence.

    2 World opinion unlikely to endorse any attempt to carry out death sentences on the grounds of humanitarian concern.

    3 Having allowed itself to be sucked into the vortex of ethnicity and partisanship, the military has lost its aura of veneration and respectability. More importantly, the armed forces have lost their monopoly of the instruments of violence and subjugation unlike what obtained in the First Republic. With so many armed non-state combatants joining the fray, one can only be sure of the beginning of a conflict of this nature and not its end.

    READ ALSO: PDP: Wike gets upper hand again

    4 The nation itself is bleeding on all fronts from insurgencies to insurrections and murderous banditry and is unlikely to accommodate any further bloodshed without something tipping. With the parlous economic condition of the populace, massive anti-state disinformation and the fact that some segments have been openly calling for military intervention, the nation is even more polarized and bitterly divided than it was in 1966.

    5 The law of unintended consequences which makes it difficult or impossible to foreclose possible outcomes to any course of action.

    If an audit of the foregoing is taken, it will be seen why the circumstances demand caution and utmost circumspection. We should not be goaded into a further destabilization of an already stressed military through an open-ended inquisition. As it is, Nigeria may not be a target of deliberate international hostility but a victim of a multi-national struggle for its precious resources. Those currently probing its soft underbelly will be happy if the bogus label of a functioning and vibrant nation-state is removed so that they can go straight for the resources, just as they have done in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Libya, the Congo and lately Sudan. Going forward, President Tinubu has shown himself a master of intrigues and political levitation. Given the volatile circumstances, he will do well to add the genius for military machinations to his remit.

  • IReV: Fishing for excuse ahead 2027 polls

    IReV: Fishing for excuse ahead 2027 polls

    During and immediately after the 2023 elections, the INEC Result Viewing (IReV) portal became the most controversial and ready excuse for the opposition to explain their defeat. Two of the opposition parties, the Labour Party (LP) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), seized upon the chaotic real-time results transmission issue to argue the unjustifiability of their losses. But while the LP had no agents in over 41,000 polling units out of over 176,000 polling units nationwide, and therefore knew little of what transpired in those unmanned areas, it insisted that the non-transmission of results through IReV explained their presidential candidate’s defeat. The PDP was less sanguine about the sanctity of that excuse, but rather chose to dwell on the pre-election issue of the qualification of the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate to contest the poll. Yet, neither the PDP nor the LP substantially contested the integrity of the Form EC8A result sheets, which, unlike the hackable IReV, was available to be scrutinised by defeated candidates and their agents and lawyers.

    Unusually, more than a year before the next polls, and focusing intently on the amendments to the 2022 Electoral Act, the opposition parties have renewed their bitter campaign against any provision that attempts to circumscribe the real-time transmission of election results to the IReV portal during the 2027 elections. They hold on to the implausible argument that the secret to their electoral success in 2027 lies with Section 60 of the Electoral Act that provides for the electronic transmission of results. By retaining the 2022 Act, which sustains the discretion of INEC to determine how results are transmitted electronically or otherwise, instead of making the IReV mandatory, the opposition seems to think they have no chance in the next polls.

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    Former vice president Atiku Abubakar, leader of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) widely believed to be set to pick up the party’s presidential ticket, spoke through his media office by condemning the retention of the 2022 provision for results transmission. Said he: “Real-time electronic transmission of results is not a partisan demand; it is a democratic safeguard. It reduces human interference, limits result manipulation, and ensures that the will of the voter expressed at the polling unit is faithfully reflected in the outcome. To reject it, and adopt the 2022 provision on so-called electronic transmission of results, is to signal an unwillingness to submit elections to public scrutiny.” Whatever former LP presidential candidate Peter Obi thinks of the contentious provision, his views have begun to be subsumed under Alhaji Atiku’s position.

    Their opposite number in the opposition, the flailing Tanimu Turaki-led PDP, is even more lyrical and vociferous in opposing the retention of Section 60 of the Electoral Act 2022. Said the party’s spokesman: “After an intentional and protracted delay, the Senate, while passing the amendment to the Electoral Act, rejected the electronic transmission of results at the polling units. This rejection is most shameful and unfortunate, attracting condemnation from all democratic-minded persons…Electronic transmission would have brought an end to the ignoble practice that has been deployed by politicians to win elections against the wishes of the people expressed through the ballot…This is indeed a sad day for electoral democracy.” What would the opposition say of the United States President Donald Trump who is attempting to ‘nationalise’ elections in the US as opposed to state control?

    Regardless of the arguments of the opposition, Section 60 is not the be-all and end-all of elections in Nigeria. There are other provisions in the Electoral Act, including the signing and dissemination of Form EC8A as well as other processes, that are even safer and more important to the success of elections in these parts. Crucially too, Nigeria’s telecommunications sector features uneven coverage around the country, especially depending on the region and the available infrastructure, while internet penetration is still average. The opposition parties do not spare a thought for the sometimes ineffective networks, sometimes unreliable telecoms infrastructure, and the difficulties agencies like INEC experiences in protecting their networks against hackers. In the last elections, IReV was used in many instances but not overwhelmingly.

    It promotes disorder, if not anarchy, to engineer distrust of the electoral body especially when the Electoral Act already makes provision for the manual transmission of results. If the opposition will spend as much time in organising themselves and ensuring that polling units are manned and Form EC8A are preserved, they will stand a better chance of supplying needed proofs of electoral malfeasance should it arise. After all, there was no mandatory IReV in 2015 when the ruling party lost the presidential election to the opposition; while in many states, ruling parties lost governorship and legislative polls.

    It is an improvement of the Nigerian electoral process that despite poor technology and low internet coverage, especially in rural areas, the framers of the Electoral Act 2022 courageously provided for the electronic transmission of results despite lack of electronic voting. It is also reassuring that the same provision has been retained rather than expunged, contrary to the impression given by the opposition. With time, and with substantial improvement in internet and telecoms coverage, Nigeria will get to a point where the method of balloting and results transmission will not be an issue. It is important that Nigerians are not bewitched into thinking that IReV is the single most important factor in electoral outcomes. It is not.

  • Excitable Otti versus unyielding Abure

    Excitable Otti versus unyielding Abure

    Abia State governor Alex Otti and Labour Party (LP) factional leader Julius Abure are indications that the ghost of the troubled LP has not been laid to rest, let alone resting in peace. In late January, the Federal High Court in Abuja, citing the April 2025 Supreme Court verdict, declared the Nenadi Usman-led LP as the authentic caretaker executive of the party. Pursuant to the judgement and tired of factionalisation, Dr Otti reached out to the other faction, asking for reconciliation and unity. Mr Abure was adamant. There would be no reconciliation until the Court of Appeal and the Supreme Court have had their say, the factional chairman bawled. It is not clear when that would be, but considering the 2027 electoral timetable and the impending party primaries coming up in a matter of months, both appellate courts had better hurry if Mr Abure’s faction is not to lose out altogether.

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    Mr Abure’s dismissive characterisation of Dr Otti’s request for rapprochement was colourful. He said through his faction’s National Publicity Secretary, Obiora Ifoh: “We are not interested in any move by Abia State Governor, Dr Alex Otti, to reconcile the party because he was the one who brought the crisis to the party in the first place…This reconciliatory thing he is throwing around is of no use. What we just witnessed was a judgment by a court of first instance. Why can’t he wait for the outcome of the appeal before deciding on such a move? Why is he suddenly in a rush to call for reconciliation? As far as we are concerned, their celebration is a pyrrhic victory…Let him know that the battle is not over.” By the time the legal battle is over, it may be too late for credible aspirants to fight for the party’s tickets for the 2027 polls. In all probability, however, Dr Otti, who has resisted persuasions to defect, may be fighting to secure a platform for his reelection and political life.