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Category: Baba Yusuf

  • The dynamics of Kano governor’s defection

    The dynamics of Kano governor’s defection

    The Permutations:

    There are new political and power dynamics in Kano State, as Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf defects from the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) and Kwankwasiya group to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). As we count down to the 2027 general elections in Nigeria, the days and months ahead will be very interesting. However, even though this is a win for the APC, but due to the sophisticated nature of Kano politics, it is not over until it’s over!

    Essentially, Senator Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso a former Governor of Kano State and the national leader of the Kwankwasiya group has overreached. So, obviously, the die is cast. He has lost his key political godson, who, coincidentally, is his son-in-law, to his political arch-enemy, former governor Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, and APC. In my view, this type of politics of sense of entitlement of the political class, and the vicious cycle of transactional political godfatherism in Nigeria is timing out. For instance, we are witnessing what is playing out, which is at a crescendo in Rivers state. We are witnessing what is happening in Kano state. Not long ago, we saw what played out between Governor Uba Sani, and his predecessor, Governor Nasir El- Rufa’i.

    This is a lesson for political players that sometimes you need to play the long game. And indeed, for those that have the stay power in politics, they play for the long game.

    Potential Implications:

    However, with this development, trouble is waiting to happen amongst the political titans within the APC in Kano State.  This trouble has been brewing subliminally before the arrival of Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf. Power brokers like a former Governor of Kano State and immediate past National Chairman or the APC Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, who was hitherto the leader of the APC in Kano State; the Deputy Senate President of the Federation, Senator Barau Jibrin, who has been nursing the ambition and has been investing heavily to emerge as the APC Governorship candidate l  to contest against Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, and other political juggernauts in Kano he already been scheming for supremacy build to the APC congresses. Therefore, it will be interesting to see how these strange bedfellows will fully align with Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, who has practically no political structure, especially build up to the upcoming  ward, state, regional, and national Congresses and Convention.

    Kano State politics is peculiar. The fact that Mr. President intervened is true. The fact that the Convention will play a role is true. But as you come down the political structure, the disposition and the consciousness is not the same. The cunningness of the politicians iand voters, including those ones that Mr. President has marshalled, is different. They will go in the night and say, do this.”Shebi” it’s the President. I want to hold on to what he’s given me. But when the day is cast and it’s too late, everybody will answer his name.

    The litmus test for his excellency Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf will start having is during the upcoming APC Congress. Because that is when he will start setting up his own political structure. Even though the APC stalwarts may like to “donate” or “rent” their structure for Governor Abba Kabir in the interest winning the elections for President Tinubu and the APC, none of the APC political gladiators is ready to remain political subordinated for the next five, six years.

    Therefore what remains to be seen is if the APC political titans will be 100% loyal to Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf. What also remains to be seen if of the Kwankwasiya structure that Governor Abba has taken to APC will get a strong holding within in the APC. Or if they return to the NNPP if they do not feel full accommodated in APC. Or if they will remain in the APC and sabotage the APC at the critical time of elections.  This is because the Kano APC is it constituted now is a conglomeration of sworn and bitter political enemies whose rivalry and long term interests are hardly negotiable. Of course in the face value, the words of President Tinubu may sink in and be effective only for a while. But the political gladiators know that the current arrangement only serves the interest of Mr. President, while their respective mid to long term political structures and ambitions are in jeopardy. This is especially so given the fact that the 2027 general elections will determine the political structures and future of these politicians.

    Furthermore, it is clear that Governor Abba Kabir’s defection to the APC is for self preservation and to consolidate his quest for second term in office which is not really guaranteed even with the defection to the APC. This is because, the Kwankwasiya movement is still solid at the grassroots level in Kano. Whoever underestimates or overlooks the love for the Kwankwasiya movement under the leadership of Senator Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso is doing so at his own peril! Indeed the masses love Senator Kwankwaso and if anything the defection of Governor Abba Kabir has triggered more attention and sympathy for Senator Kwankwaso and the Kwankwasiya movement.

    Meanwhile, it is worthy of note that , due to the alleged overbearing influence of Senator Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso on Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, a few months into the administration of Governor Abba Yusuf, the protagonists, started a mantra in Kano, saying, “Abba tsaya da kafafunka”, or “Abba tsaya da kanka” , meaning, “Abba Kabir, stand on your feet” (Abba be independent). And that mantra was the beginning of what we have seen that has happened today. Consequently, some members of the cabinet of governor Abba Kabir who were also members of the NNPP and the Kwankwasiya movement, including, the former Secretary to the State Government (SSG), Dr. Abdullahi Baffa Bichi, started moving away to the APC, claiming  that there is an overbearing hold on the governor by Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. Further down the line, that continued to crystallise. And, obviously, like I said in my opening remarks earlier, this is a typical template of godfatherism,  playing out between a godson and godfather.

    Well, having done that now, Governor Abba Kabir was able to use this opportunity of his bosse’s overbearing influence, and at the same time, his overreaching with regards to the political dynamics at the national level.

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    It’s not over until it’s over!:

    The defection of Governor Abba Kabir from the NNPP to the APC has certainly dealt a blow on Senator Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso’s political structure- the Kwankwasiya movement, in the short term. However, it is highly likely that in the mid to long term, Senator Rabi’u  Musa Kwankwaso and the Kwankwasiya movement could resurge stronger, far as potentially Kano state politics is concerned, if anything. This is especially so if we go back to history. Kano politicians and voters are masters of this protest vote game we play.

    Let remind us of what happened during the 1991 Gubernatorial elections in Kano State between when the Gubernatorial candidate of the then Social Democratic Party (SDP) candidate, late Engineer, Magaji Abdullahi, and the Gubernatorial candidate of the National Republican Convention (NRC), Arc.  Kabiru Ibrahlm Gaya. Members of the two factions of the defunct Peoples Redemption Party (PRP)  were members of the SDP. The PRP had two factions: the faction loyal to late Mallam Aminu Kano, the former national leader of the PRP, that we call the “Tabo” group, and the faction loyal to late Alhaki Abubakar Rimi, a former governor of Kano State. This is akin to what we have now in the APC in Kano state, and with governor Abba Kabir group and the APC team under the leadership of Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje which is know in Kano as the “Gandujiya”.  group. When push came to shove, and late Engr. Magaji of the PRP “Tabo” faction emerged as the SDP Governorship candidate, the “Santsi” group kept quiet. But during the election, guess what they did? The “Santsi” faction and their supporters, in protest gave their votes  to the NRC candidate, and that is how Arc. Kabiru Ibrahlm Gaya emerged as the governor of Kano State. This political calculus, is typical of Kano politics notwithstanding Presidential intervention or interference or directive.

    All being said, how Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf continues to deliver the dividends of democracy to the masses in Kano state between now and 2027 and beyond, will determine how the massive Kwankwasiya movement will sway in terms of voting pattern. Now we have seen how the political elites in the cabinet of governor Abba Kabir have moved to the APC.  What is important to note is that the defections have not significantly impacted the value of the Kwankwasiya at the grassroots, What remains to be seen is how it plays out in the voting pattern.

  • Food for thought for African Democratic Congress (ADC)

    Food for thought for African Democratic Congress (ADC)

    ‘A nation is great not by its size alone. It is the will, the cohesion, the stamina, the discipline of its people and the quality of their leaders which ensure it an honorable place in history.”- Mr. Lee Kuan Yew – the First Prime Minister of Singapore’

    Effectively, as we approach the 2027 general elections in Nigeria, except some critical steps  are taken by the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the ADC will not stand a chance to even compete talkless of to win the 2027 presidential elections against President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

    The clock is already ticking, build up to the 2027 elections. And here we are, the opposition political figures and the opposition political parties in Nigeria are In disarray. There is currently, no unanimity of focus, there is no alignment of key objectives, there seem to be no potential to build up to  a consensus with regard to zoning of the President slot, or where the ADC stands, in terms of its strategy.

    How will ADC  deal with the big egos currently in the ADC? That is another food for thought.

    Good enough just two days ago, the ADC leadership  finally setup a 50-member, Manifesto drafting Committee, to come with a draft of what the ADC has to offer to Nigerians  or what the other political parties have to offer Nigerians show us what they have to offer that could be better what President Bola Tinubu, and the All Progressives Congress (APC) have been doing in the past two and a half to three years. Indeed, in my view, in comparison with previous dispensations, so far this is the most lame and reactive opposition time in the political history of Nigeria

    The current opposition political parties in Nigeria, are yet to have a unity of purpose, talk less of strategy of putting their houses in order, to be able to effectively fight a very entrenched, highly experienced, war-scarred, dominant and incumbent President Bola Tinubu and his political party. And it worries me as a Nigerian because we need an effective opposition to put President Tinubu and APC on their toes as they deliver their mandates at federal and state levels,  so that they can do more. That consciousness will also make the ruling party to know that they have an opposition that can actually compete with them.

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    By the way, many people do not know that I have political experience. As a bit of background about my political antecedents; I was a founding member of the All Peoples Party (APP) in 1998, and I was appointed as the first Information Analyst at the APP National Secretariat, working directly with the National Chairman and the National Secretary (within the National Working Committee). I worked with different Committees including Planning and Organizing Committees, Mobilization Committees, National Convention Committee, the APP Governorship elections Campaign team for late Engineer Magaji Abdullahi, the APP Governorship Candidate for Kano State in the 1999 Gubernatorial elections, etc. I was given level-1 confidentiality clearance and ran political assignments at the highest level. After the Presidential elections, In the second half of 1999, I followed some of my Principals, to switch affiliation to the PDP along with other party chieftains. In the PDP, I was also privileged to work at top levels with the likes of the late Ibrahim Aminu Saleh, and other Party chieftains. One such instance was playing a key role in the emergence of Chief Audu Ogbe as the PDP National Chairman in 2001. Following that development, I became actively involved in partisan politics and undertaking national assignments. In 2005, midway into the second term of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, I decided to revert back fully to my professional career and stepped away from partisan politics.

     Having been a member of an opposition political party, as well as the ruling party, I understand the mechanics and dynamics of politics and party administration. Since the time I left politics in 2005, interestingly, today, all our political mentors, leaders, and colleagues from 1998 to date are in all the political parties, APC, PDP, Labour Party or NNPP because the politicians have all spread out. And that tells you the kind of politics we have in Nigeria.

    Meanwhile, there is a tension that is building up in the APC and  I have said severally, that the biggest opposition of APC, is the  APC itself , i.e, Complacency, and the sense of entitlement. What to watch out for are the APC ward and state congresses which commence soon. The ADC or any serious political party will put their house in order, tidy up their platforms. Because some people will be looking for where to run to. There is no how the APC go into the presidential election as it is. As a vehicle that is solid without some people having to look for alternatives.

    Many political juggernauts in the APC, will not agree to be given the back seat for the next five years they are going to be there. So the ADC will have to  put it’s house in order, and do the right thing, whatever it is. Because certainly politicians will look for alternative platforms.

    Love him or hate him, President Bola Tinubu and the APC were able to manage various power blocs, egos and interests efficiently and effectively when they were in opposition. President Tinubu played the long game for 15 years building political structures, network and consolidating to get to where he is.

    Furthermore, timing is a critical success factor and I would like to share some strategic perspective in ghat regard,  for the ADC. Let’s go back and look at the timelines:

    Now we are in January, 2026, we are counting down to 2027. If we may recall 2023-2024, when APC was formed during the merger. By March 2013, two clear years agreed of the 2015 general elections, when the legacy parties have agreed to merge, the APC had taken a clear position on zoning, by zoning the presidency was zoned to northern Nigeria. That is very critical. Secondly, by November 2013, they had in their kitty a total of 16 incumbent governors, including the PDP governors that joined the legacy party governors, like the governors Adams Oshiomole (ACN), Tanko Almakura(CPC), Kashim Shettima (ANPP), Ibrahim Gaidam (ANPP), Rochas Okorocha (APGA), all Governor of South West Nigeria (ACN), and 5 Governors that defected PDP to APC. In the January, APC and had over 170 incumbent legislators in the Senate end house of representatives at the National Assembly and majority of the members of the state house of assembly in those 16 states.

    By 2014, the narration, messaging, and strategy of the APC were clear. And they had already started getting the attention of Nigerians.

    Currently, we are in January, 2026 about 1 year to the 2027 general elections, but the ADC yet to be clear about the zoning of the Presidency. And the dramatis Personae in the ADC are busy with the “me, me, me” mentality. What will happen to ADC is in its hands. How the ADC leaders  work in the next three to four weeks to come out with a position to show clearly to Nigerians, first of all, that they have the clarity and unanimity of purpose. Secondly, they have alignment of visions and objectives for Nigerians, and then to the messaging. By June 2026, , if in the next two months, the ADC remains indecisive, it may not be a competitive party in the 2027 general elections, and because of that, the crises ‘ of trust and  confidence will ensue with the domino effect that may scatter the political party before it’s foundation and pillars are even firmly in place.

    Sun Tzu, the great military strategist, stated that, “Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win”. Therefore, any political party that wants win elections and exist for long, must be prepared to be united, proactive, consistent, consolidated, financially capable, and effective. For instance, in the United States of America, power shifts between the Republican Party ,  Democratic Party, etc . In the United Kingdom, the Conservative Party and the Labor Party, etc.

     My parting words for the opposition political figures; United you stand, divided you fragment your votes and make it easy for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to coast into his second term.  The rhetorical question is, “Will the politicians in the ADC rise above their selfish and/ or parochial interested to actually  do the needful?” Your answers are as good as mine.

  • Critical success factors for Nigeria’s economy this year

    Critical success factors for Nigeria’s economy this year

    The World Bank, and International Monetary Find (IMF), have reeled out positive outlook for Nigeria in 2026:2027, projecting a 4.4% growth with positive headline inflation, and food inflation trajectories as well as other macroeconomic indices indicating positive economic recovery. However, it is essential that we also take notes of some alerts by the World Bank, and IMF, so as to ensure that the macro economic trajectory is sustained and upscaled, and to also avoid what I call socio-economic “reflux”, especially considering the fact that we are in an election year. However, it is also important that we upscale Nigeria’s growth rate as soon as possible, so that we can achieve the actual economic growth rate that is desired to really turn around the economy of Nigeria in the mid to long term.

    Furthermore, while the macroeconomics indicators are very important, the microeconomic indicators and the impacts on the common man in Nigeria, are most critical. For instance, the World Bank report also projected that there will be further increase of poverty in northeastern Nigeria. And we should also not forget that the over 140 million multidimensionally poor Nigerians have not really significantly been reduced, even according to the Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). So these are crucial points we need to take note of while we are celebrating the positive macroeconomic trends and outlook.

    We must also interrogate the overall performance of the economy, i.e, macro and micro, so as to ensure that, the average Nigerian is really feeling the impacts of those economic indicators, and to hedge against insecurity and the escalation of poverty, in the northeast as mentioned by World Bank, etc. ,

    In my view, here are some critical success factors:

    Fiscal Discipline:

    I have been consistently advocating that there is the urgent need to properly align Nigeria’s fiscal policy with the monetary policy. And we can only achievement of the fiscal policy with the monetary policy, if the federal government entrenches fiscal discipline. Indeed the  lack of fiscal discipline had been the bane successive administrations in Nigeria including the incumbent. That is why we have not been able to achieve that level of growth and consistency required to fully recover and grow  Nigeria’s economy.

    Fiscal discipline include; how we  rein in the national income, how we spend the money, what our priorities are, issues of budget padding, how we prioritize and manage our capital expenditure. Certainly, the lack of fiscal discipline is why Nigeria is currently, simultaneously operating three different budgets, which further complicate the economic situation.

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    For example, for the first time in a long time in Nigeria, local contractors have gone on strike and have carrying placards, demanding for the payment of the backlog of payments of contacts awarded and executed as far back as 2024. Interestingly, we the Honorable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Chief Wale Edun, has stated about a week ago that about N1.8trillion have been earmarked  to pay contractors (foreign and local). These are indications of lack fiscal discipline, which is negatively impacting and is misaligned with the current Monetary policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

    Therefore, there should be policy cohesion, policy coherence, and  policy coordination amongst and across MDAs. The federal government should also ensure that while we are making the progress, the gains are penetrating into the economy and making the desired impacts. Because no matter how well we want to talk about how the economy is doing, the fact that we are operating three budgets in the same year should not be the practice and should not be acceptable. Unless and until we are able to address those fundamental issues, we will not be able to have traction.

    Meanwhile, while 4.4% rate projected is good good as it sounds; the truth is that, the growth rate will not  actually make Nigeria a $1 trillion economy as quickly as possible, which is what will actually really turn around the economy. We need at least an annual growth rate of from 7% to something about 8.5% consistently for the next to four years and beyond to nearly achieved the objective.

    So there’s a lot of work to be done. Interestingly, we have an election year. Politicking will take a chunk of the time of the administration. I hope that the federal government will remain focused on achieving sustainable micro economic impacts , to hedge against the opposition political parties, while they are doing the politicking so that people will really appreciate that they are doing something that is making sense to them, not just for the macroeconomic indicators or for analysts like us.

    Full Activation of the Local Governments Autonomy and Administration:

    Local Government administration is  also part of national fiscal framework, because fiscal discipline is also addressing the constitutional provision for allocation of resources. And the local government is a crucial part of that.

    For many years, that particular level of government, has been used as a special purpose vehicle for corruption, or for alienating the people. I am happy that, despite resistance by some state governors, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been able to operationalize the autonomy the local government administration in line with the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. He has done that by first, making sure that the Supreme Court of the Federation has affirmed the sanctity of the relevant sections of the Constitution that gives local government administrations their structural, financial, and operational autonomies. Two weeks ago at the beginning of the year, 2026, Mr. President re-affirmed his commitment by stating that he will ensure that local governments directly funded and supported even if he will have  issue executive orders. Kudos to Mr. President. We hope that will be done as soon as possible, because we need to detach the local government from this chokehold of the governance.

    Accordingly, if we are able to detach the local government, we can be able to focus on the local government as well and give them those responsibilities and ensure they deliver because they are the closest, you know, to the common man in Nigeria.

    Local government administration is a critical success factor to the success of Nigeria’s fiscal framework.

    National Security:

    The criticality of national security to Nigeria’s existence, unity, prosperity and sustainability, growth and development cannot be over-emphasized. Without national security, the visions, social and economic strategies, and policies will amount to nothing.

    What is critical is also to ensuring we strengthen our institutions, while dealing with insecurity.Therefore, the leadership at federal and state levels must ensure the achievement of national security and safety of citizens, in with section 14(2)(b) of the Nigerian Constitution of 1999 [as amended] provides that, “the security and welfare of the people shall be the primary purpose of government.

    Activation and Operation of FDI Pipelines:

    Trade and Investment are live wires of any country. President Bola Tinubu has done a lot of Investment and Trade mobilization since the beginning of his administration in May 2023. He has traveling around the world, mobilizing Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) and trade for Nigeria. The recent engagement is Mr. President’s trip to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) last week where he attended the Sustainability Summit and also his interactions with the President of the UAE,  Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, which resulted in the signing of Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPA) across various sectors.

    The important next steps in 2026, are the full activation and operations of those FDI and Trade mobilizations, particularly the agriculture, power, and manufacturing sectors, because those are sectors that will actually drive the economy. The performance of investment and trade in 2025 was very good. However the big investments were in Financial Services, and Portfolio investments.

    According to the CBN, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) rose to $720 million in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025 from $90 million in the preceding quarter. Year-on-year FDI inflows we’re also higher than the $570 million posted in Q3 2024, reflecting 26.3% increase.

    Interestingly, out of the total 2025 Nigeria’s annual investment, $3.1 billion, representing 54%, was to the banking sector, but about 2.3%, which is $129 million production and manufacturing. So you can see where we should focus on, to actually get the actual growth target, in the economy.

    Overall, efficient and effective execution, performance and impacts are critical.

  • Nyesom Wike’s zero-sum game in Rivers state

    Nyesom Wike’s zero-sum game in Rivers state

    ‘He will win, who knows when to fight and when not to fight.”.. Sun Tzu, Chinese Military General, Strategist and Philosopher’

    Look before you Leap!

    The recent escalation  of imbroglio between the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike and his political godson, Governor Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers State, with the resumption of impeachment proceedings against Governor Fubara, by the Rivers State House of Assembly; is a Zero-Sum Game by Nyesom Wike. This will most likely be the defining moment the power tussle between the political godfather and his political godson.

    The imbroglio has taken a new dramatic dimension, as Minister Wike has unleashed  verbal attacks and threats on the National Secretary of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Senator Ajibola Basiru and anyone who shows any form of support for Governor Fubara, or anyone that calls for reasoning, logic or political solution to prevail.

    With the verbal attack on the APC Scribe, Mr. Wike has opened a new front to add to the growing number of fronts in his ongoing numerous political battles. For Minister Wike to openly declare a political war with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s political party leaders and members while Wike remains in the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), is an indication that Minister Wike is unraveling with no holds barred. This is especially so given that, in the past 3 years Wike has practically destabilized the PDP, while burning political bridges in his wake. It appears that this latest fight by Nyesom Wike is a fight to finish.  Indeed how Wike handles this episode of his multidimensional political battles will define his political future – he will either re-assert himself as a political leader to be reckoned with, or he will experience a bitter political anticlimax that could potentially end his political relevance in the politics of Rivers State and at national level.

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    As I  stated in my previous analyses and opinions on this topic (eg. The 4th of April 2025 episode of this Column), I also partly blame the political crisis in Rivers State on the initial strategic mistakes made by Governor Fubara. However, Governor Fubara’s deft defection to the APC and how he executed the move was strategic and it has changed the game for him so far.

    In one of his lessons on strategy and warfare, Sun Tzu also stated that, “No nation survives from prolonged warfare.” And to that extent, for the past 3 years since the resumption of his political godson Siminalayi Fubara, the people of Rivers State have not enjoyed good governance and the full benefits of having a democratically elected Governor. I believe that this protracted and continuing fight between the Minister Wike and, Governor Fubara will continue to deny the people of Rivers State the good governance.

    In my view,  the impeachment proceeding is a calculated attempt to oust Governor Fubara is a zero-sum game played by Minister Wike’s camp to ensure that the incumbency and political career of governor Fubara are upended. Sadly, initial attempts by President Tinubu to resolve the impasse have not worked out, and I am not sure other entreaties will work.

    “Roforofo” fight is not strategy:

    It is true that Minister Wike played crucial roles to the success of President Bola Tinubu during the 2023 Presidential elections. But it is also profoundly true that President Tinubu has been adequately compensating Minister Wike and his Allies. The rhetorical question is what will be enough for Nyensom Wike? Your answers are as good as mine.

    As it is today, I dare say that Mr. Wike is overplaying his hands. He cannot fight everybody at the same time and expect to win all the time. Therefore, Wike should smell the coffee, face the realities, recalibrate his strategy, and readjust his position.

    Furthermore, Minister Wike’s behavior, to the leadership of the APC, with the insults and the threats he is showering on the principal actors in APC, particularly the National Secretary, Senator Ajibola Basiru, is an indication of what will happen even if Nyensom Wike decamps into the APC. I reckon that even if Nyensom Wike decamps to APC, he will carry this toxic behavior and style into the APC, and that will certainly be a disaster for the APC. This is because, even though Wike may be tamed by Mr President, he is creating too many distractions for Mr. President and unnecessarily heating the polity. Indeed, Minister Wike’s behavior if unchecked, could be contagious and it may likely permeate into other power blocks within the APC at states and the national level. This will be a very bad influence at this particular time when there is the need for more cohesion to manage the power blocks and power dynamics within the APC as new entrants and support build up to the 2027 elections. Indeed, managing these power blocks is already a big task for Mr President and for the managers of the APC.

    Emotional Intelligence and political sagacity are key to sustainable political stay power as demonstrated by President Tinubu in the over 30 years of his political career. Love him or hate him, President Bola Tinubu has a high level of emotional intelligence. That is how, for decades,he has been able to make and keep friends and allies across Nigeria, and even work with his enemies and/or those that hitherto fought against him. I hope that Minister Wike will learn some emotional intelligence and political sagacity from Mr. President.

    APC unity and discipline must be sustained:

    President Bola Tinubu is also a core party man, who believes in political party discipline and loyalty. Therefore I do not expect President Tinubu to allow Minister Wike to take the “roforofo” fight mentality to the APC or to continually fight and insult the APC leadership at the highest level while claiming he is loyal to Mr. President. As it is today in Nigeria, Mr. President is the APC, and the APC is Mr. President! Therefore attacking the APC leadership is attacking Mr. President.

    Consequently, I totally align with the position of the National Chairman and the National Secretary of the APC, because any political party that intends to consolidate power and be sustainable MUST imbibe and entrench political party unity and discipline. Over the years President Tinubu has been able to maintain the discipline that has been responsible for the level of cohesion, unity and successes of his political structure over for many years in Lagos, the entire southwest and across  Nigeria, including the build-up to the APC merger in 2014. Minister Wike should also learn from that.

    Therefore, commend the unanimous position take by the garrison commanders of APC, i.e, the National Chairman of APC, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda, the National Secretary of APC, Senator Ajibola Basiru, have taken positions, at the national level to protect the APC from the emerging toxic narratives and actions by Wike, lest his actions could permeate into the APC and cause cracks and disaffections, and also set a bad leadership example to the members of the APC across Nigeria.

    By the way, Minister Wike has been meddling into the politics of other States as he clearly stated himself in his verbal attack of Senator Ajibola Basiru, when he spoke tacitly about Osun politics. There are also news about his unsuccessful attempt to meddle into the politics of Imo State. His activities in the national, regional and state levels in the PDP are in public domain.  Yet Minister Wike is threatening that “nobody” can or should meddle in Rivers State politics, as if Rivers State is his private property. Certainly, the National Chairman and/ or National Secretary of the APC or any other political party will always be involved in political party activities in ALL the 36 States in Nigeria and the FCT. Certainly Mr. President has and will continue to lead the entire country and intervene on matters of States including Rivers, if and where necessary. In fact, it is President Tinubu’s interventions that prevented Rivers from descending into anarchy.

    It is also noteworthy, that the importance of Rivers State in the permutations and combinations build up to 2027 elections, has changed from the 2023 elections scenario. Because the APC currently has about 30 incumbent governors as members. So the numbers and power dynamics that were critical in 2023, will not be the same in the  2027 elections.

    I also don’t expect the APC under the leadership of President Bola Tinubu to allow  an APC lead State House or Assembly to impeach the Rivers State Governor who is a brand new entrant of the APC. That is not how the APC operates.

    Please let the people of Rivers State Breathe:

    I hope that this Wike Versus Fubara power tussle will be ended so that the people of River State, and by extension the people of Nigeria, will have good governance in Rivers State . That should be the real objective of any well meaning politician in Rivers State.

  • Key global determinants in 2026

    Key global determinants in 2026

    Trump 2.0:

    I project that President Donald Trump will continue to disrupt global dynamics in 2026. Love him or hate him, President Trump is a force to reckon with (for good or bad reasons). Importantly he follows his rhetoric with actions. Therefore any individual or Country that ignore him, do so at their own peril. President Trump will sustain and upscale his trajectory in terms of his foreign, and economic policies for the United States of America.

    The removal and arrest of President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela is a demonstration of President Trump’s resolve to follow his rhetoric with actions. His threat to  the President of Columbia and his sustained intention to annex Greenland and threats to the EU, NATO, etc are indications of days to come in 2026.

    Global Economy:

    The World Bank projects a global average economic growth of 6.2% in 2026-27. In addition, the World Trade Organization (WTO) projects a declining global trade volume growth at 0.5%, having downgraded it from a previous expectation of 1.8%. According to the WTO, “Trade growth is expected to slow in 2026 as the global economy cools and as the full impact of higher tariffs is finally felt for a full year,”.

    In my view, the aforementioned outlooks will be driven by President Trump’s Tariff Policies, and the consequent global trade barriers, geopolitics, climate change as it impacts agriculture and environment, etc.

    Artificial Intelligence (AI):

    AI will continue to evolve and dominate global growth across all sectors. 2025 closed with a major buy – a $2.2 billion purchase of an AI company – Manus by Meta, as indication of consistent growth of AI amid concerns of control and what the future holds in terms of regulations of AI. For African Countries, how proactive they are in terms of the development of infrastructure, human capital development, political stability and good governance will be a critical success factor for us to catch up with the AI evolution.

    The increasing use of autonomous systems for electric vehicles and AI in our movements and travel systems, health care systems, agriculture, education, warfare, etc will be dominated by China. China will continue to dominate the AI space.

    The United States of America is also very dominant and visible in the AI space with investments of Trillions of US Dollars and ownership of AI companies and infrastructure. However Europe needs to up its game in 2026.

    BRICS:

    I reckon that BRICS will continue to grow cautiously, consistently, as it is becoming a likely alternative platform to the US dollar.

    I am very confident as an advocate of BRICS,  that BRICS will definitely make an impact in the global socio-economics and politics as the body becomes stronger and more relevant.

    China’s Resilience:

    In terms of global trade, China is reasserting itself as the global trade super network and supply chain hegemony – a production superpower. In 2025, President Xi Jinping steered China on the trajectory of continuous utilization of special economic zones/ free trade zones to provide the incentives required to continue catalizing,  and promoting  trade and investment within China, and between China and the global trade ecosystem. In addition to that, we also witnessed how China’s focus on producing high-quality development and high-quality products to the world. China will sustain those trajectories in 2026.

    Significantly for Africa, in 2026, African nations will take advantage of the zero tariff provided by China on almost all import products for 53 countries in Africa, as against the tariff war by President Trump rates on. That is a major shift by China, considering the fact that there are major producers of electronics, industrial materials, and other highly demanded products around the world. This is critical success factor for China, and why China will remain ahead of the game with regard to technology, and trade, and with regards to economy.

    Furthermore, China is also creating digital hub around Huizhou, Guangzhou, Hanai provinces, building massive data centers for AI, which are the bedrock of the AI revolution. This level of investment, and commitment by the Chinese leadership will ensure that China remains o resilient and on a positive trajectory in terms of economy, and geopolitics.

    Another important point to note is China’s internal growth strategy and and focus on that a they call “the small beautiful things”, i.e the continuing support of the small medium scale enterprises within China, to ensure that  the people of China are happy and the general well-being of Chinese is upgraded, while closing of the gap between the rich and the poor.

    Basically, China’s key drivers for growth in 2026 will be innovation, resilience, diversification, and global re-alliances, consolidation.

    Bad Governance and Insecurity as Opportunities for Imperialism:

    Interestingly, President Trump’s disdain for Africa has changed in perspective and a new purpose of economic imperialism. I am of the view that this change is because President Trump now realizes the fact that Africa has abundance of critical minerals. Critical minerals/ Rare earth metals are crucial to 4th and 5th industrial revolution. Developed Countries are scrambling for the critical minerals which are cheaply available in Africa more that anywhere else in the world.

    For instance, in 2025, President Trump weighed in on the protracted war in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and struck a deal to mediate between the warring parties in the DRC, i.e the M23 Rebel forces (backed by Rwanda) and the Incumbent Government of DRC.

    The DRC has the world’s largest reserves of cobalt, along with significant quantities of coltan, lithium, and uranium, all of which are overwhelmingly mined and processed by Chinese firms.

    On December 5, 2025 (last month), President of the DRC Félix Tshisekedi, and Rwandan President Paul Kagame visited Washington to formalize the peace deal. Consequently, the United States and DRC signed a new strategic partnership on critical minerals and security cooperation. The terms offer U.S. firms preferential access to Congolese mineral reserves when doing business with state-owned mining companies.

    Furthermore, I expect that President Trump will ride on the momentum, and leverage the intervention the USA is currently providing to contain insecurity in Nigeria, to secure a deal for the USA to gain significant access to the critical minerals that are abundant in northeastern, northwestern and north central Nigeria. After all there is no “free lunch” in foreign policy.

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    Accordingly, I also reckon, that President Trump will maximize the new Presley he has if Africa and use the opportunities to secure more deals for critical minerals. I also expect that more African countries will have to sign these deals with the USA under the guise of interventions. As to whether or not the deals will benefit the African Countries – your guesses are as good as mine.

    Indeed, bad governance and heightened insecurity are the new opportunities for President Donald Trump. Africans should blame themselves and their leaders for opening the opportunities not just for President Trump but for China, and any other serious Country that is ready to partake.

    For example, Sudan is currently experiencing one of the worst humanitarian crisis in human history. According to the latest figures from the UN, at least 21.2 million people are facing high levels of acute food insecurity, 9.5 million people are displaced internally, 4.35 million people have fled the country, and 10 million children are out of school with classrooms destroyed, occupied, or unsafe to reach. The worst affected in the war are women and children.

    Yet the African Union is aloof as the imperialists position to take over the critical minerals abound in northwestern Sudan.

    Russia-Ukraine Imbroglio

    With regard to the Russia-Ukraine war, I do not see any end in sight in 2026. This is due to the sustained hardline positions taken by Russia, Ukraine and the EU/NATO. While the war rages on, complications of the war with heavy social and economic impacts are more on  Ukraine that they are on Russia. Currently, as the winter chills on, there are over 1million people in urgent need of heating and water. In my view, so far, President Putin’s strategy has been working more for him than the US and EU/NATO strategy for Ukraine. If the Russia-Ukraine imbroglio continues unabated without a change in the political strategy disposition, it will continue to impact negatively on global and national economies.

    Israel-Palestine Conflict – The War in Gaza

    With regard to the Israeli-Palestinian war in Gaza, I don’t expect much to change, because the successive US Presidencies and administrations have maintained a consistent strategic position and actions with regard to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Therefore, the position of the United States of America in this regard will not really change the fortunes of the Palestinians.

  • Local government autonomy critical to national development

    Local government autonomy critical to national development

    “When you are in local government, you are on the ground, and you are looking into the eyes and hearts of the people you are there to serve.” – Valerie Jarrett, a former Senior Advisor to former President of the United States, Barack Obama

    About two weeks ago, on the 18h of December. 2025, during the15th National Executive Committee meeting of the All Progressives Congress, held at the State House Conference Centre, Abuja; President Bola Ahmed Tinubu reiterated his commitment to ensuring that the Supreme Court’s judgment affirming the financial independence of local governments is implemented.

    Mr. President, stated that the failure of the governors to fully comply with the Supreme Court’s judgment may force him to take other executive decisions.

    I commend and support Mr. President’s position on the autonomy of the 774 local government in Nigeria, and decisions he will take in this regard. It is trite in law, that local governments are Should be funded directly from the Federation Account. But for over 40 years since the second republic, Governors have been taking the funding allocations on behalf of the local government administrations in violation of Section 7 and other relevant sections of the 1999 Constitution as amended. By approaching the Supreme Court last year and securing the judgment in favor of local government autonomy which is an affirmation of Section 7 and other relevant sections of the 1999 Constitution as ammended, surely, Mr. President has cleared clear the way for accelerated growth and development and the grassroots of Nigeria.

    It is worthy of  note that President Tinubu is living up to his campaign promises as outlined in his Renewed Hope campaign Manifesto build-up to the 2023 presidential elections. In Page 69 of the manifesto, Mr. President promised to, “Embark on a review of the federation revenue allocation system to recalibrate the division of funds amongst the three tiers of Government: Federal, State and Local. More funds should be allocated to the States and Local Governments so that they can better address local concerns and fulfill their expanded constitutional obligations to the people……. This promotes stronger governance at the state and local levels, thus reducing political congestion and competition for resources at the federal level. The performance of federal, state, and local governments shall improve while the people will benefit by having more political democracy and economic development more closely at hand.”

    Taking Development closer to the people:

    It is worthy of note that according to the Revenue Mobilization Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC), the current revenue-sharing formula is as follows: The Federal Government takes 52.68 % of the revenue share, states get 26.72 %, while local governments get 20.6 %. So far, Governors have taken 46.78%, i.e. 26.72% + 20.6% – with no commensurate tangible impacts to show for the masses of Nigeria, i.e. the grassroots.

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     A very worrisome situation in Nigeria is the lack of deepening commitments and impacts at grassroots levels where the majority of Nigerians reside and live. The acceleration of the provision of basic infrastructure like pipe-borne water, basic roads, waterways, culverts, health care facilities, agriculture support systems and investments, etc. have eluded our people at the local governments and hinterlands due to a lack of direct funding to our local governments. Therefore, we must ensure effective financial and operational autonomy at our local government levels, going forward.

    A good example of the importance of the role of local governments is that local governments remain the critical platforms for our Agricultural value chain and its socio-economic contributions. There is currently no active development process flow between the Federal Government interventions and direct local government initiatives. 

    I am very glad to hear that the perennial issue of undercutting or stifling the cash flow of local government administrations in Nigeria will come to an end soonest. Because this has been one of the key banes of the progress of this Country. For over 40 years, the State Governors have been holding the local government administrations hostage, and rendering them at the beck and call of the Governors. Suffice it to say that the refusal of successive state administrations  is a testament to the hypocrisy of our expectations as a nation.

    The sustained choke-hold of the Local Governments of the Federal Republic of Nigeria by State Governors is not just for the control of the financial inflows of the Local Government Areas (LGAs), but also to ensure continuous political control of the local government areas to perpetuate their control of the political structures of the local government areas for political supremacy, while and after leaving office as governors. The choke-holds on the LGAs have further stunted the growth of local government areas across Nigeria, and more importantly blocked the delivery of good governance. Over time, the local government administrations have become voiceless, powerless, and almost useless. The local government management and operations have been almost comatose, and therefore, they have not been able to add tangible values to the growth and development of Nigeria. The LGAs are mere appendages of the State Governors, while their offices are more or less liaison offices of the Governors. That is why the local government chairmen/ sole administrators sit out their tenures without making any impacts on the communities. 

    Due to the aforementioned reasons, there is so much opaqueness in the administration of local government administrations in Nigeria. Most of the local government chairmen also end up helping themselves from the remnant of funds credited to the coffers of the local government – that is what bad leadership at the top does – i.e., “when the head is rotten the body subsequently rots away. In the end, the citizens of Nigeria are systematically and consistently short-changed. Consequently, year-on-year we do not see any serious developments taking place at local government levels; rather, what we see are multi-dimensional retrogression and poverty. 

    Indeed, a visit to local government headquarters around Nigeria will evidence how bad things are; the offices are shadows of themselves, the operations are comatose and there are basically no structures for people to lean unto in demanding the delivery of good governance.  Therefore, I am very happy to hear that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is ready to deliver one of his campaign promises to ensure that local governments do not just get autonomy on paper, but that the autonomy is actualized and made fully operational.

     Furthermore, one of the key reasons why we do not witness major and tangible developments at state levels is because the inactivates at local governments are due to undue interference by the state Governors to the extent that, it is only the local governments that are of interest to the Governors that experience of measure of development. 

    It is an established fact that “politics is local”. That is why everywhere democracy has thrived, and everywhere leadership has been effective and impactful; it is because the local governments are autonomous and fully operational – across the three arms of government at that level, i.e. Executive, Legislature, and Judiciary. It is because politics is local that is why LGAs are where the votes are garnered to ultimately achieve political success. Accordingly, the grassroots should not be abandoned after campaigns and elections. The people at grassroots levels MUST be catered for, if we want this Country to make any form of progress. The only way growth and socio-economic development can be achieved at grassroots levels is to eliminate poverty and strife by fully operationalizing the independence of local government. 

    Sadly, most of the projects we witness at state levels are around the State capitals with a lot of “white elephant” projects situated at the local government levels. This is why most of the Councillors are not making impacts, but basically exist by titles they hold and by the little “change” and “crumbs” they pick out of whatever remains from the “financial leftovers” that trickle to their pockets from the coffers of the local government administration.

    It is important to note that, just operationalizing the local government administrations and giving them full autonomy will not enough to ensure the delivery of good governance at the grassroots level. Citizens should also actively demand for good governance from Governors and local government administrations – to put the local government chairmen on their toes so that they do not feel entitled and take things for granted.

     Nigerians look forward to a fully autonomous, and functional local al government administrations in line with the provisions in the 1999 Constitution, of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, and ensuring that the local government administrations are rescued from the stranglehold of the State Governors of Nigeria. I am very hopeful that when that is done, we will witness better performance of President Tinubu’a and subsequent administration, while as citizens we will directly hold the local government administrations to account.

  • Malami’s burden

    Malami’s burden

    As the federal government files 16-count charge of money laundering, concealment, and unlawful acquisition of proceeds of illegal activity, against the former Minister of Justice, and  Attorney General of the Federation, Mr. Abubakar Malami SAN and his son, Malami has been moaning, lamenting, and and claiming that he is being persecuted by the federal government. Interestingly, Malami is painting himself as a victim which in my opinion is tantamount tas the saying goes, “putting a lipstick on a pig “, which will actually not change its looks.

    All Nigerians are aware of the activities of Abubakar Malami during his heydays as the Chief Law Officer of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. It is interesting how leaders in Nigeria become deaf , dumb and blind to realities and the trappings of power while they are in charge. Ironically, they  become activists and claim to be victims when they are out of power and when they are asked to account for their deeds or indeed when are asked to take responsibility for their actions.

    One of the things I am very interested to hear from Abubakar Malami is how he transited from being just a lower middle class Nigerian, an average lawyer, and within the eight years that was the Minister of Justice and Attorney General of the Federation, he accumulated such stupendous wealth that are alleged to belong to him, valued at about almost 212 billion Naira which is one 140 US Dollars. I am very keen to listen to Abubakar Malami’s defence,. And that’s the fair hearing that Malami he is currently given by the EFCC and our Courts. This is despite the fact that is on record that Abubakar Malami denied people fair hearing when he was Minister of Justice and Attorney General of the Federation. Therefore. I am not interested in the feeble defenses he is putting up

    These are interesting times for Malami and all the political leaders that are currently facing various investigations and prosecution by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, and Independent Corrupt Practices, and Related Offenses Commission. Instead of Abubakar Malami to step up to defend himself in the court of law and demonstrate to Nigerians that he is a man of honor by clearing his name, he has rather taken the route of shouting that he is a victim, shouting that is is being persecuted. This is inspite of he very ominous and pungent smell reeling out of the daily reports we are getting about his shenanigans when he was the Minister of Justice. Personally, I would be very interested to hear and see the defenses that will be put up by the former Chief Law Officer who interestingly is a Senior Advocate of Nigeria to demonstrate his legal sagacity, legal strategy, and understanding the rudiments of the law.

    Indeed, if the allegations are true, I wonder how his understanding of the law will save him.The level of shamelessness of politicians to claim persecution and innocence on a clear cases of corruption and /or abuse of office that require that person to defend himself or herself leaves a bad taste in the mouth.

    In the eight years that Abubakar Malami held sway as the Attorney General, and Minister of Justice of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, he was actually building a house, furnishing it with the bed he would like to lie on. As the saying goes, “as you make your bed, so you shall lie on it.”. I expect Malami to man up and face the current prosecution, answer the questions, neutralize the evidences, counter the witness statements, and also demolish all exhibits presented before him to clear his name, in which case I will congratulate him. But anything less than that to me amounts to insulting the intelligence of Nigerians. He will have to take responsibility for his actions.

    Back in the days, Malami was disrespecting court orders, refusing to comply with court orders, he was not able to advise former president, Muhammad Buhari, and Ministries Departments and Agencies of Government (MDAs), to comply with court orders,. Ironically, he is now the one wanting the orders of court to be respected and complied. The same man that oversaw the travesties of justice. Personally, I am witness to such travesty of justice, when Abubakar Malami frustrated the position I took to defend this country on matters of national security and economic sabotage. His officials sent to me a veiled threat for me to stand down on that matter, which of course I ignored. This speaks volume of the character of Malami, when the chief law officer of Nigeria.

    The Integrity, and Competence of the EFCC Chairman is intact:

    Abubakar Malami’s position that Barrister Olukoyode, the Executive Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), should recuse himself on this investigation, and prosecution, claiming that Mr Olukoyode was indicted in the Salami Panel Report , is irrelevant and is clearly diversionary. There is no reason why the CHairman of EFCC should recuse himself from this case. The executive chairman of EFCC is not the issue here. Abubakar Malami needs to answer questions and stop chasing shadows. No amount of deflections or attempts of circumvention will make this matter go away.

    I commend the Chairman of the EFCC, Mr. Olukoyode for a job well done, with he forensic manner the investigation and prosecution of Abubakar Malami’s case and other cases that the EFCC are executing. The development of the case and the various achievements of the EFCC in 2025 demonstrate the capacity of the EFCC in pursuing this case to its logical conclusion. Therefore, I encourage the EFCC Chairman, not to be deterred or distracted, from his current trajectory, not just in the case of Abubakar Malami, but on all matters before the EFCC . We should support such institutions to cleanse our country. Indeed the integrity, capacity, and competence or Mr. Olukoyode is not in doubt.

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    Furthermore, the allegations of persecution by opposition politician, is laughable. I will not support any politician who has questions to answer to hide under the guise of persecution avoid accountability. If and when people get into position of power, they should remember there is a day they will leave that office. This should also be a lesson to all political leaders that your power today could become your vulnerability tomorrow! Therefore use your power, time and opportunity wisely! Leaders should be conscious of their actions and inactions because a time will come that they will account for their tenures. The ongoing cases being investigated and prosecuted by the EFCC, and ICPC includes leaders in the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), and also the leaders that are in opposition political parties. Therefore, we should all stand as Nigerians to fight against corruption, irrespective of party affiliation, ethnicity, religion and creed. That is the only way we can progress and develop as a nation. By the way, if for any reason, a government is power is using the weakness of corruption that have been perpetrated by an individual, well, so be it, because that person has created the situation

    It is also on record that the EFCC and subsequently the courts, have made provisions for Malami to be able to get bail. Malami should satisfy the bail conditions and go home. Interesting, during his tenure,  conditions were made so difficult that some bail conditions were actually not supposed to be met. The question is, what did Abubakar Malami do to ensure that such bail conditions were not entrenched in the system. In any case, he could actually seek for variation of the bail conditions subject to consideration of the Court(s).

    As you make your beds so you shall lie on them:

    During his time as the Chief Law Officer of Nigeria, Malami was alleged to have attempted to undermine the institution he belongs to, the institution that made the a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN), i.e the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), just because the NBA was speaking truth to power – the federal government at that time; to the extent that it is alleged that he was the brain behind the creation of a parallel legal association/ Bar association, to counter the NBA. What a Paradox!

    The fact that Abubakar Malami is malingering from one court to another, trying to set aside subsisting court orders that affirmed his detention, speaks volumes with regards to how life is so transient and how power is transient. That we should be cautious what we do when we are in power, for it is very easy how time flies that we will be on the other side of the table at the receiving end. Malami’s desperation is increasing and it is telling. His he grandstanding  is only making matters worse for him. Because Nigerians are wiser.

  • Identity politics and national development

    Identity politics and national development

    By identity politics, I mean a societal culture whereby the political, social, environmental, and economic dynamics are influenced and/ or determined by racism, tribalism, ethnic jingoism, religious extremism, chauvinism, and other forms of bigotry and parochialism. However, Nigeria and indeed any other Country or society will be better if they are able to overcome parochialism, ethnic jingoism, and other forms of identity politics.

     Global Perspective

    Identity politics has been part and parcel of the political evolution of the entire world. It is part of global sociology. Interestingly, rather than diminishing, identity politics is becoming a more prominent global reality. Certainly, identity politics has always been driving global, national, and subnational politics and socio-economic power dynamics from time immemorial, but more so in the past 60 years. Even though it is being hypocritically downplayed, we witness and experience it everywhere in public and private sectors, including our workplaces and communities. Like other parts of the world, identity politics is part of African culture. The current and historical political dynamics in almost all African countries are the stark reality of the global socio-political situation, which are the indications that national and global geopolitics will continue to be run along the lines of nationalism and protectionism rather than globalization, which in my view are other forms of identity politics.

     Accordingly, globally, we are experiencing a reversal of the achievements made in the past 60 years of trying to break down the barriers of race, religion, ethnicity, prejudice, etc. We are witnessing what is happening in Gaza for the past over 50 years between the Israel and Palestine and the position taken by the global superpowers, especially the western powers, and even the middle-east power blocs, who play the ostrich when it comes to those interests that satisfy their strategic objectives, regardless of how inhumane and how horrible the situation is for the less fortunate countries, states, communities and/ or people. The same scenario is playing out in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, South Sudan, Myanmar, etc. These hypocrisies in conversations and actions are amongst the reasons why I believe that the politics of identity will continue to drive political systems and the emergence of political leaders in societies and nations, including “democratic” societies/Countries.

     Identity politics hinders or destroys societies or national development, fosters polarization, disunity, inequality, and injustice, with the attendant negative consequences.  It narrows the view and progress of any nation or society. Therefore, in my view, in trying to address the issue of identity politics, from a strategic perspective, it is for us to see how we can bring what I call a “balance”, rather than trying to eliminate it or trying to pretend that it is the only problem, or trying to think that some people can actually just stop it. This is because politics of identity is part and parcel of our moral and societal fabric across the world, regardless of race, religion, and regardless of how old or how deep the so-called “democratic tenets” are. The politics of identity remains a key element, leverage or driver of political campaigns and the determinant of electoral victory, or attainment of political power even in the United States of America, United Kingdom, Germany, France, China, etc.

     Consequently, if it is something we cannot do away with, then why shouldn’t we have a system that will manage the process for all of us? Even within the boundaries of countries of the superpowers or the top economies of the world, the politics of identity is what is driving those countries, whether they are at war or they are at peace. From the United States of America to the United Kingdom to Europe to the Middle East to the Far East, Africa, or anywhere else. The re-emergence and growing popularity of the right-wing political parties and power blocks sweeping elections across Europe is key evidence of the prominence of identity politics in the global scheme. Hence, the politics of identity is a key factor that determines the political direction of the entire world.

     Nigeria and the 2027 Elections

    Identity politics in Nigeria is so strong that it cannot be overshadowed even by the power of incumbency at the subnational, state, or national level. It guides our political awareness, determines our political, social, and economic directions. A classic example is the fact that even though Nigerians are aware of the failures of political leaders at the federal and subnational levels. But because of identity politics, we ignore the mistakes or failures of our political leaders at our own peril. For instance, during the tenure of President Goodluck Jonathan, and the tenure of Late President Muhammadu Buhari, or the incumbent President Bola Tinubu, citizens will mostly to be sentimental and never complain or criticize the President, if he comes from their region, state, tribe or religion, even if they are eating from the dustbin or dying in droves. Conversely, citizens are also reluctant to celebrate or commend the President or Governor, even if he is performing well, if he is not of their region, state, tribe, or religion. It is even worse at the state levels, because in the States; the most of the people that are suffering the most are the people that are defending the state governors, no matter how poorly they perform. That is what is identity politics does to a society.

     The politics of identity is a topic of discussion in any political forum and any democratic process. The only difference is that in the more advanced democracies, it is done more sublimely/ hypocritically than in a country like Nigeria. So, to contextualize this perspective, to the buildup to the 2027 general elections, as we approach the mid-term of President Tinubu, I wonder if should we could easily de-emphasize or wish away identity politics. In fact, in my view identity politics will play a huge role in the 2027 general elections, more than ever before.

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     It is highly likely that in the 2027 general elections, we will witness how identity politics may tip the dynamics even more than population. While population has been driving and determining political directions and electoral victories, whether it is in terms of official census numbers, which some citizens challenge its veracity or in reality where the numbers are actually true; political permutations and manipulations will ensure that identity politics will be a critical success factor for the incumbent or for those that want to upstage the incumbent in Nigeria at Presidential, State government, and even local government levels.

     Most times, for strategic or diplomatic reasons, we outwardly downplay the politics of identity only so as to give a sense of “unity and/ or “fairness” or maybe a sense of “justice. But the identity politics always manifests, especially buildup to and during elections, as it has been from time, only more so as the political evolution of Nigeria is becoming more and more complex rather than simplistic due to the failure of successive administrations to deliver the crucial political reforms and socio-economic development.

     Politicians have also recognized identity politics as a very important tool for electoral success, and political control, not just in Nigeria but in many countries across the world.

     Meanwhile, it is worthy of note that some countries like Singapore, Switzerland, etc., have achieved some level of political balance based on ideals like unity in diversity, properly domesticated political systems and structures, meritocracy, etc. Such achievements were also not without costly sacrifices that have remained indelible scars in their histories and evolution. While political idealism is more in the realm of theory; countries like Singapore and Rwanda has demonstrated that societies and countries can overcome identity politics and succeed. Therefore, it is essential that well-meaning and forward-thinking Nigerians should continue advocating for inclusivity, unity in diversity, proper domestication of political systems and structures that will suit our national peculiarities, meritocracy, etc., as the possible best ways forward.

     Way forward for Nigeria

    Change the Political system with a significant reduction of power from the center

    One of the best ways to dilute or neutralize the politics of identity in Nigeria is to change the political system and structure of the Country. Even though changing the political system and structure may not immediately eliminate identity politics, but it will certainly downplay it in the mid to long term, and will provide some level of balance in restructuring the political system of Nigeria from the current presidential system. This is because identity politics is even more pronounced at the local levels, and that is why thinking that we can wish away identity politics at the national level is only wishful thinking.

  • Those coups in West Africa

    Those coups in West Africa

    “If people cannot trust their Government to do the job for which it exists – to protect them and promote their welfare – all else is lost” … Barrack Obama, the 44th President of the United States of America.

    Six days ago on the 6th of December, 2025, Africans woke up to a development in Cotonou , the capital of the Republic of Benin in the West African subregion, when some dissident soldiers, attempted to overthrow the government of President Patrice Talon. The move was swiftly countered by the loyal armed forces of the Republic of Benin, with the support, and intervention of the military from the neighboring Federal Republic of Nigeria, under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The coup was effectively quelled, and the catastrophe of military interregnum was averted. Peace is maintained and sustained in the Republic of Benin .

    I commend President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for the swift action he took to avert the coup in the Republic of Benin which could potentially have negative political and socio-economic impacts on Nigeria and West Africa. I am able to say like every other well-meaning citizens in Nigeria and across the world, that military regimes are not the solution to bad governance or to change the leadership of a Country or States. I believe, like many others, that the best way to bring positive change in a democratic setting is through the ballot box, or through effective and legitimate process  and the power of the people. Therefore, I am very happy that the attempted Coups failed in Benin Republic.

    However, the attempted coup in the Republic of Benin and the drama that happened in Guinea-Bissau about two weeks ago, whereby what I call an “arrangee” coup was undertaken in the the Republic of Guinea-Bissau, has raised or amplified some key questions with regard to the trend of military coups  and attempted coups sweeping across  the West Africa subregion. Rather than for that trend to be stopped, it appears to be increasing and taking new dimensions where political leaders appear to be arranging with the Armed forces to overthrow them, as a gambit to block their political opponents from legitimately winning elections and taking over power from them. Therefore, while we are pushing back against military coups and juntas, it is important for us to interrogate the reasons why the coups and attempted coups are becoming prevalent, and address those issues so as  to ensure that the trend of military coups is stopped.  The Countries and peoples of Africa must move towards solutions rather than going backwards and deeper into complications of such nature as military interventions.

    The real tenets of Democracy and Good Governance are Critical:

    We may recall that the military coups in Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali were and are still actually supported and accepted by the majority of citizens of those countries. This is a reflection of the failure of the political class across Africa to deliver good governance, and ensure the credibility and sustainability of democracy. A key point to be noted,  especially by the political leaders, is that unless and until political leaders focus on and deliver the mandates given to them by the citizens; unless they are sensitive to the concerns of the citizens of their country, those political leaders will continue to create or open  for the military or the non-state actors and agents of doom to continue attempting to take over power in that country by whatever means.

    In my opinion, as it is the opinion of many other thought leaders and many other citizens across Africa, the failure to comply with the tenets of democracy, the lack of good governance, and the impunity of the political class are contributing factors that will continue to create opportunities for power grabs and what I call “institutional coups”, which are taking place across Africa, unhindered and supported, either deliberately or inadvertently by the other Presidents across Africa. Today in Africa, we have the sit tight leaders who have been in power for decades, who have refused to give way to proper democratic processes and they are members of the African Union and other subregional bodies like ECOWAS, etc. Meanwhile, the political consciousness of the people is changing. Yes, we are all rising against military interregnums. But also, yes, people are conscious of their powers, and when push comes to shove, as we have seen in the Republics of Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mail, the citizens may not necessarily support the politicians in power or the democratically elected governments, when they are not delivering credible democracy and good governance, especially when they demonstrate dictatorial tendencies..

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    Over 60 years or less since independence, majority of African Countries are still grappling with the provision of basic amenities like clean drinking water, steady electricity, education, security, free, fair, and credible elections, etc. Therefore, it is important for us to note that the foundations and building blocks of our Countries and Continent are fundamental to the success of the Africa.. indeed the  entrenchment of the tenets of democracy is crucial.

    leaders across Africa to smell the coffee and face those realities. The enemies within will continue to rise so long as we keep on giving them the opportunities by failing to live up to expectations of your peoples.

    Furthermore, the fact that mlitary coups are becoming fashionable in Africa, is a  reflection of  what I call, “the illusion of democracy, that African politicians give their citizens. This is because most times, the political class hide under the cloak of democracy, to perpetuate more evil than the military.

    If you take Nigeria, for example, back in the days, the political class have been part and parcel of coups and countercoups. What is happening in Guinea-Bissau is like a smaller, and more rough version of what happened in other countries, like Uganda, Cameroun, Cote De Voice, etc. Oher “democratically elected” Presidents and AU and regional bodies, do not call out or sanction democratically elected Presidents  demonstrate undemocratic tendencies or act undemocratically. They only  call out the military when they take over. Hence, the leaders of West Africa are opening up the windows to military interregnums that they are not able to control or de-legitimize. And that is why the Sahel region is  becoming more militarized. It is all about leadership, because if the AU, ECOWAS, and other countries are demonstrating leadership in terms of institutionalizing democracy military coups will away.

    As for ECOWAS, I ask for some introspection, going forward, with regard how things have been evolving in the sub-region, and to a larger extent in the continent of Africa. It is not enough for you to come and start blowing the whistle of war, or blowing the horn of war, when you know that you have not delivered good governance. Because what is true and what is real is, there is a phenomenon sweeping over Africa, triggered by the Arab Spring, and consolidated by the Sudan meltdown of Omar al-Bashir, you know, which was actually triggered by the people, not by the junta.

    As a Hausa proverb says, “unless the world cracks, the lizard will not find a way to go through”.. So, going forward, I just hope and pray that the ECOWAS will look at the core tenets of ECOWAS, and that is the improvement of the economy of the sub-region. That should be the focal point. The moment they are able to deliver those provisions of the treaty I revised in 1991, I think that would further dissuade military takeovers or totally eliminate them. And also, to continue focussing on Africa, on we, the Africans, and delivering value for us, rather than leaning towards the Western powers that use them, you know, for their proxy wars, and to continue to plunder our resources. So, however we look at it, the key role of dissuading and eliminating military takeovers still falls within the ECOWAS in terms of the various leadership of the countries in the sub-region.

    There must be Peace for Development to happen

    There must be peace before growth and development can happen. There must be stability in terms of democracy and the socio-economic well-being of our citizens across the countries in the continent for us to achieve the national, regional and continental growth and development. Look at what is happening in The Sahel region,  Sudan, South Sudan, and DRC, for example, and other parts of Africa.

    It is important to note that in Africa, we must recognize that the lingering and growing crises across Africa will ultimately hamstring the growth of the continent because we are all connected. Invariably if one regional bloc sneezes the other part of the Continent ultimately catches the cold with the effects that follow. Therefore, United we stand, and divided we will continue to wallow in the abyss of backwardness.

  • The North governors’ security meeting

    The North governors’ security meeting

    There is need for Action:

    The meeting convened by the northern governors of Nigeria, along with the northern traditional leaders, which took place in Kaduna a couple of days ago, in my opinion, is one meeting too many, without much action and impacts. Such security meetings have taken place in northern Nigeria and other parts of Nigeria repeatedly over the past years especially in the last two years. However, there have been the lack of effective follow-up actions due to lack of a well articulated, coherent and well mapped out strategy with action plans and timely executions and achievement of tangible milestones over the months or years. If steps and quick actions are not taken, northern Nigeria will continue to lose territories within Nigeria to this multidimensional insecurity, or rather to the hands of Islamic fundamentalist, bandits kidnapped, and Fulani herdsmen, etc.

    We have gotten to a point that only decisive actions by leaders will save the this Country. It is only sincerity and unity of purpose that will help us. Playing politics with insecurity is another factor that has further added oxygen to this situation. Insurgency started during the time of the PDP government over 15 years ago. It escalated during the APC government so no politicians should come and be selling us dummies here. We should collectively take responsibility and collectively face our realities. We must change not just the narrative, but we must also change the reality to what it should be. Everyday people are being killed. Everyday excuses are being given. While some of us are throwing parties and throwing money around having parties while people are being killed. So enough with the rhetoric and theatrics and the “dog and pony” shows. It’s time for action. Otherwise, external parties will come and do it for us.

    We can have as much security summits and conferences as we want. If we don not recognize the criticality of time on these multidimensional issues, and address them, things will continue to go worse.

    Dealing with insecurity remains a critical success factor, otherwise no amount of intervention will be successful and sustainab

    Regarding the stoppage of mining:

    Suspension or stoppage of legal mining will not not solve the problem. Illegal mining has been taking place for a very long time. I particularly know for a fact that illegal mining has been taking place in northern Nigeria for nothing less than 30 years. Therefore, stopping legal mining is not the solution. But dealing with the illegal mining that is taking place sometimes with the collusion of state actors, that we all know about. The preponderance of illegal mining all over northern Nigeria is so deep that it has become an enterprise. So fighting illegal mining is a project on its own that the governors and the federal government under the leadership of President Tinubu should address as one of the critical pillars of success of the fight against national insecurity and economic sabotage that we are facing in Nigeria today.

    However, legal mining should be addressed from a strategic point of view. Blanket  blanket statement against mining will only exacerbate the issue. Governments at federal and state level have attracted foreign direct investments to activate and boost our solid minerals sector which is a key economic diversification pipeline. Because mining is a capital intensive and long term investment, it will certainly be a strategic mistake and counter productive to suspend legal mining. If we suspend legal mining ipso facto, it will impact the entire business plan, and the strategic objective of the mining. In addition, there could be potential breach of the between government and investors. These will ultimately erode investor confidence and destroy the gains made and hinder the socio-economic objectives from being achieved.

    Closure of schools is not a solution:

    With  profound respect to Governments at state and federal levels will only be a palliative intervention but not a solution.  Rather than impulsive reactions, we should have a short mid to long time plan with regards to stopping the abduction of school children, attacks on schools, mosquitoe, churches and market places, etc. We should have answers to the attack on schools, the attacks on hospitals, the attacks on marketplaces and possibly bus stations. We should also have an action plan for potential attacks on other high target areas like train stations, like airports, like high rising areas, including Lagos. So we have to be both strategic, tactical, and operational. We have to move from all sides and all angles.

    Moreover, moving resources and assets from one place to another will not is not going to help us. i.e., moving these 300,000 policemen around these issues or soldiers will not help our problem. You move them to a location. After two days, you pull them out and move them to another location. These people will come back and hit you with this guerrilla warfare system. You must have adequate man and material resources to man adequately the locations you are supposed to set up military formations at a location just because of this situation will not help us. We need to have a holistic approach as quick as possible.

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    The need for a war Situation Room:

    We need to have a war room situation where the National Security Advisor will coordinate  with the service chiefs. Unless and until we contain the insecurity by nothing less than 65%, we cannot think that we can win this war.

    The need to Upgrade and Recalibrate the Ministry of Interior:

    We also need to recalibrate the Ministry of Interior to build its capacity to face and tackle Nigeria’s growing internal insecurity and other threats and challenges. The Ministry of Interior’s job description, the Minister of Interior’s job description and the job description of the agencies under this Ministry of Interior must be upgraded with immediate effect. The Ministry of Interior, does not currently have the capacity and  latitude. For example, Post 911, the United States of America had to recalibrate the Department of Homeland Security to face new dangers, threats and risks. 

    Security Fund:

    Meanwhile, a lot of states in Northern Nigeria, are not doing what they are supposed to do. Therefore, how will setting up of this funding really alleviate the situation of our people? What is the objective is the Fund? What will the funding do? How will the funding be utilize? What will be the framework and the accountability process of this funding?

    It is no longer time for partisan politics with regards to insecurity. We need to deal with this issue. Insecurity and Terrorism do not care about religion, tribe, creed or ethnicity. So it is a problem, a common denominator issue. I did not hear about the solution for the out-of-school children. I did not hear a solution about our farmers that are left without protection. I did not hear the solution of our travelers traveling left, right and centre. I did not hear any plan.

    Non-Kinetic Imperatives:

    I do see a robust non-kinetic plan for alleviation of poverty and sustained fight against all  social vices. I did not hear anything about truth and reconciliation of people in areas and communities that are in conflicts. And how are we going to address frontally the farmer-herder issues over and beyond rhetorics and long-term objectives of Ministry of Livestock Development. We must have a short-term intervention for the farmers-harders . A lot of people that know me know that I have been speaking about this issues and saying the the farmers-herders issues date as far back as back as about 200 years ago. Therefore it a longstanding existential issue that must be addressed. The issues transcend ethnicity. Mining is not the only accelerant of banditry and insecurity. poverty,, strife, uncertainty, injustice, etc  also are also drivers and accelerants of insecurity. Let us not make the mistake of deflecting issues as we address this canker worm while we agree resources uh take over by the imperialists with the facade of the insurgency deep state with the support of deep state we not helped our matters by not delivering good governance good governance is a major accelerant as well out of school children. Governors should also own up their own responsibilities and do the needful i repeat do the needful.

    Good Governance:

    Citizens need to be feel the impacts that state governments are actually using the taxes collected and other revenue generated at federal and state levels to add value to the quality of life of citizens, add value to governance, and for the growth and development of Nigeria.