The Nation Newspaper

Category: Friday

  • Reinvigorating anti-terror war (2)

    Reinvigorating anti-terror war (2)

    “The art of war teaches us to rely not on the likelihood of the enemy’s not coming, but on our own readiness to receive him; not on the chance of his not attacking, but rather on the fact that we have made our position unassailable.” … Sun Tzu…A Chinese Military General, Strategist, Philosopher and Writer.

    In last week’s edition, I started a discussion titled “Reinvigorating anti-terror war (1)”, wherein I reflected on the worsening state of insecurity in Nigeria. I also promised to continue with Part- 2 in which I will continue to share insight, and also proffer some ways forward.

    KEY DRIVERS OF INSECURITY AND TERRORISM

     As terrorism and other forms of criminality are gaining critical mass in Nigeria worsening the state of insecurity, it is important that we dimension the key drivers of the evils. 

    Some key drivers of insecurity include drug trafficking, the proliferation of arms, porous borders, bad politics, lack of education, unemployment, the widened gap between social strata, socio-economic well-being and corruption, etc.

    The inflow of drugs and illicit arms due to porous borders (land, air, and sea) has been exemplified and evidenced by the daily interception of illicit arms, drugs, and illegal immigrants by security agents, which is a testament to the seriousness of our predicament.

    TERRORISM FINANCING

    The issue of terror financing is crucial to enable terrorism and insecurity which is a deeply rooted issue with international dimensions and ramifications. We are seeing how proactive and forward-thinking Countries are effectively dealing with these issues. Indeed, in Nigeria, there are laws and regulations in place to guard against evil financing of terrorism. But over the past 13 years; lack of political will, poor execution, inefficient and ineffective law enforcement, prosecution, and adjudication (which also has to do with our judiciary) have hampered a turnaround of the situation.

     Some law enforcement agencies like the DSS take years to secure convictions on issues of terrorism due to the nature of our judicial systems, which leaves much to be desired. Therefore, there is a lack of consequences for criminality and terrorism, which would have served as a deterrent. There is an ongoing prosecution by the DSS of an alleged collaborator in terrorism financing. Two days ago, the Executive Chairman of the EFCC, Mr. Ola Olukoyede stated that over N7Billion suspected terrorism finance has been traced to a religious sect in Nigeria, but the EFCC Chairman expressed his concern about how a Court has stopped the Commission from proceeding with the necessary actions for prosecution. Such bottlenecks, deliberate or not, are major inhibitors of the fight against insecurity and terrorism and must be stopped immediately. Moreover, more needs to be done with regard to investigations, arrests, prosecutions, and convictions of the financiers of terrorism and their collaborators. Unless there are convictions and consequences for acts of terrorism, security, and economic sabotage; the war against insecurity will remain ineffective.

     There is a need for more firm and impactful action in the financial services sector to ensure that they are not in any way used as platforms and pipelines for the financing of all elements of insecurity and terrorism. There should be sincere zero tolerance and consequences for aiding and abetting criminality in this Country. It is only when there are consequences that we can win this war.

    RESOURCES AVAILABILITY AND OPTIMIZATION

    We need to be honest with ourselves with regard to the capacity of our Armed forces in terms of man and material resources i.e. number of personnel (i.e. boots on the ground), kits, equipment, weaponry, technological capabilities, operational capacities, etc. These are critical success factors for the Armed Forces from time immemorial. Therefore, an armed force that is hamstrung with resources and logistics challenges will not be effective in combating crime, terrorism, and the attendant insecurity.

    While I commend the Inspector General of Police’s (IGP’s) initiative of creating special intervention squads within the meager number of personnel he has to manage the escalation of insecurity challenges, I add my voice to the advocacy for adequate resourcing of our armed forces because they are all in dire need to support that they resource they require. The Service Chiefs of the Armed Forces are struggling with their man and material resources and do not have enough resources to contain and fight internal security. The Forces are seriously undermanned, with a lack of proper kitting and tooling, lack of proper and up-to-date equipment and technologies, and logistics support to enable them to function effectively. This situation must be reversed immediately. The Nigerian Armed Forces currently struggle to fend for themselves, most times they have to procure their kits (uniforms, boots, berets, etc.) from their own pocket money to perform their duties. A situation whereby bandits and terrorists and bandits carry AK49 will loads of other arms and ammunition against the AK45 used by the Nigerian Armed Forces is pathetic.

    The truth is that the personnel of the Armed Forces are over-stretched at the moment and unless the President and the National Assembly take drastic actions, the forces will soon be ineffective and helpless – that’s the reality.

     The gallant armed forces face dangers daily, risking their lives and that of their families. I get goose pimples when I see videos of our gallant armed forces, vigilantes, and other citizens risking their lives as they take on the terrorists who have superior firepower and yet they keep soldiering and struggling day-in and day-out despite the challenges including depleting resources and meager welfare provisions. This should not be the case.

    OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCIES AND ERROR BOMBINGS

    The overall operational framework can only be properly executed if the requisite man and material resources are provided for a timely and optimal way to deal with the situation. 

    In most cases, the response times to threats or to prevent a threat from becoming an active danger, or to quell actively dangerous situations are very poor due to a lack of adequate resources, the morale of the offers and men of the armed forces, lack of discipline and consequence for misconduct or negligence and wrong postings, i.e. “round pegs in square holes”. The cost of recruitment error, or posting incompetent officers to man positions and locations based on parochial interest is very costly and damaging which leads to disasters like error bombing of innocent citizens and wrong targets which is becoming too frequent and must be stopped forthwith.

    Read Also: Adeleke issues 24-hour ultimatum to warring communities to submit arms

     Another issue is the urgent need for value re-orientation of the Armed Forces. For example, in some cases, the response times to issues are either slow, nonchalant even sometimes dismissive until the damage has occurred and lives and properties are lost. There should be zero tolerance for acts of nonchalance, negligence, and total disregard for imminent dangers.

    WELFARE AND MENTAL HEALTH

    The welfare and well-being of the armed forces are also paramount in keeping the officers physically, mentally, and psychologically fit to continue risking their lives for their Country.

     I completely agree with the Chief of Defense Staff, General Christopher Musa who recently called for the increase in the Salaries and welfare of the Military whereby he revealed that he and other soldiers are paid N1,200 per day on operations. I am sure the same situation goes to the Nigeria Police Force and other security agencies. This leaves much to be desired considering the hazardous and risky situation that the armed forces are operating in, especially those in combat. I urge Mr. President to immediately look into this very important topic so that reasonable provisions will be made for our armed forces wherever they are

     The mental health of officers, especially those in combat or those who return from various operations suffering from Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) should be given the desired attention. PTSD is a major mental issue that has adverse consequences on the mental health of the armed forces soldier with dire impacts within the rank and file and the larger civilian society. The rate at which soldiers and policemen turn their guns against their colleagues, spouses, or the larger society is an indication of a clear and present danger that needs to be addressed by providing psychological, counseling, and other emotional and mental support for those who have dedicated their lives to protecting Nigeria.

     CORRUPTION

    Anticorruption Strategy and Value-Reorientation: Beyond mantra to action through realistic, practical, and pragmatic plans and actions with the requisite strategy, management, and execution to rid Nigeria of the cankerworm of corruption. It is so bad that we hear of allegations of government officials, public officers, politicians, traditional rulers, businessmen and women collaborating with bandits, illegal miners, kidnappers, and terrorists. This is the tragedy we face especially when all we hear is that the enablers of terrorism are known, yet we haven’t seen concrete actions taken against them.

     I conclusion, I urge Mr. President on whose table the bucks tops, that with robust strategy, and with decisive and effective execution – Nigeria shall overcome.

  • The Message

    The Message

    Preamble

    ‘My service to my people is part of the discipline to which I subject myself in order to free my soul from the bonds of the flesh…For me the path of salvation leads through the unceasing tribulation in the service of my fellow countrymen and humanity’. Mahatma Ghandi (1869-1948)

    The above quoted statement by the late Indian Statesman and sage, Mahatma Ghandi, epitomizes patriotism in all its ramifications. However, it requires life, hope and sincerity of purpose to be so dedicatedly determined. Perhaps, if Ghandi had been a Nigerian he would not have made such a statement or if it was necessary, he would have made it with reservation and that is if circumstances of life would ever permit him to make it at all. This indicates that an Indian of Ghandi‘s status and intent might be an aberration in Nigerian environment. Detailed analysis on this may be left for another day.

    On May 22, 2013, the compulsory National service scheme in Nigeria generally known as National Youth Service Corp (NYSC) was 40 years old. It was another time for the federal government to roll out drums characteristically in celebration of the occasion with pump and pageantry. And the cost, as usual, was though not disclosed, must have run into billions of naira. From that jamboree, new millionaires or even billionaires must have emerged while bank accounts of some government officials must have swollen beyond imagination. Yet, we are fighting corruption tooth and nail.

    The Value of 40

    Forty years is universally acknowledged as the age of maturity. It is the age of mature reasoning when man is expected to handle matters with little supervision. It is the age at which the mistakes of the adolescent years and early adulthood are corrected. Incidentally it is the age at which every Prophet of Allah except Isa (Jesus) was commissioned to deliver Allah‘s message to mankind. Any man at that age who can still not think before acting is called ‘a fool at 40‘. Ditto a government or a nation.

    The establishment of the NYSC scheme by the military government under the leadership of General Yakubu Gowon was not fortuitous. With the promulgation of Decree 24 of 1973, the scheme was established on May 22 of the same year not only as a demonstration of the government‘s genuine intention to fulfil the regime‘s post civil war policy of ‘Reconstruction, Rehabilitation and Reconciliation’ (otherwise called three ‘R’) but also to accelerate the country‘s socio-economic development as well as to foster national unity and integration.

    Purpose of NYSC

    The Scheme was charged with the responsibility of mobilizing, deploying and administering Nigerian Youths who must have graduated from tertiary institutions. Their duration of compulsory national service was scheduled to be one full year during which they are to be groomed for leadership. The objectives of the Scheme which compel the youth graduates to serve in States other than those of their origin are as follows:

    •To inculcate discipline in Nigerian youths by instilling in them a tradition of industry at work and of patriotic service to Nigeria in any situation they may find themselves

    •To raise the moral value of Nigerian youths by providing them with the opportunity to learn about higher ideals of national achievements as well as social and cultural improvement

    •To develop in the Nigerian youths, the attitudes of mind acquired through shared experience and suitable trading which will make them amenable to mobilization in the national interest •To enable Nigerian youths acquire the spirit of self reliance by encouraging them to develop skills for self employment

    •To contribute to the accelerated growth of the national economy

    •To develop common ties (among Nigeria youths) geared towards the promotion of National unity and integration

    •To remove prejudice, eliminate ignorance and confirm, at first hand, the many similarities among Nigerians of all ethnic groups and

    •To develop a sense of corporate existence and common destiny of Nigerian people

    The Cardinal Points

    There were four cardinal points upon which the scheme is based. These are Mobilization, Orientation/ Induction Course, Primary Assignment/Community Development Services (CDS) and Winding Up/Passing Out. Through these cardinal points the scheme mobilizes Nigerians below the age of 30 years who are graduates of Universities and Polytechnics (at a time, graduates of Colleges of Education were involved) for a one year national service in any part of the Country. Such qualified Nigerians are given an instrument of mobilization otherwise known as Call-Up letter which shows the state in which to serve and other particulars relating to the prospective Corps members.  Also, a three weeks training programme primarily designed to prepare corps members for the one year national service is provided and the training takes place in venues called Orientation Camps located in all the States of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

    The orientation course provides a platform for interaction among Nigerian Youths of diverse backgrounds and inclinations. Then, at the end of the Orientation exercise, corps members are posted to serve in both the public and private sectors. During this period, they provide skilful assistance in meeting the much needed man-power in the rural and urban Communities.

    The corps members are distributed to all the communities which now make up the 774 Local Government Areas in the 36 states of the Federation plus the Federal Capital Territory.

    In addition, a Community Development Scheme was designed to be carried out by the Corps members along with their Primary Assignments. The CDS was planned to bring development to the host Communities through the activities of the Corps members for whom a day was set aside in a week to carry out Community Development initiative based on community need and to provide a platform for sustainable development in active cooperation of host communities. Finally, a winding up/passing out programme was designed to draw the curtain over the service year and bring the corps members together once again to enable them share their experiences during the service year and deliberate on their individual future agenda. This is an opportunity for most corps members to exchange contact addresses and thereby establish permanent relationships. Thus, from such relationships, intertribal marriages and business partnerships emerged. The scheme remains one of the greatest achievements of General Yakubu Gowon  as Nigeria‘s military Head of State.

    Policy Formulation

    At the time of formulating the NYSC policy, Nigeria was still a country plagued by a myriad of problems generally known with underdeveloped countries such as poverty, mass illiteracy, acute shortage of high skilled manpower (coupled with most uneven distribution of the skilled people that are available), inadequate socio-economic infrastructural facilities, terrible housing shortage, lack of water and sewage facilities, roads, healthcare services, and effective communication system.  Faced by these almost intractable problems, which were further compounded by the burden of reconstruction after the civil war, the government and people of Nigeria set for the country, fresh goals, and objectives aimed at establishing a new Nigeria from the debris of the old. The aim was to build a united, strong and self-reliant nation; a dynamic economy; as well as open opportunities for all citizens in a free and democratic society.

    It must be remembered that only six Universities existed in Nigeria by that time. These were the University of Nigeria, Nsukka; University of Ibadan,

    Ibadan; Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria; University of Lagos, Lagos, University of Ife, Ile Ife and University of Benin, Benin City. All these Universities, except University of Ibadan, (which was left behind by the colonialist as a national heritage) were forcefully acquired by the federal military government from their regional owners. And the inadequacy of needed manpower supplied by these Universities warranted the inclusion of graduates of Higher National Diploma (HND) from Polytechnics and later, the holders of National Certificate of Education (NCE). (The latter was however excluded with time following the establishment of more Universities and Polytechnics).

    These universities and other institutions of higher learning are normally expected to serve as training grounds for future leaders, besides being committed to the advancement of learning and knowledge as well as training of people for good citizenship. Perhaps the deviation experienced from this expectation  ab initio led to the accusation levied by members of the public against the products of those institutions of being too elitist in their outlook and of not identifying with the plight of the common man by appreciating the predicament of the vast majority of the citizenry who live in the rural areas.

    Besides the reasonable policy of emulating compulsory national service from some civilized countries, the year 1973 symbolized the foundation of many great thoughts that would have made Nigeria a great African nation. That was the year in which Nigeria could be said to have gained economic independence by changing the national currency from pounds and Shillings inherited from the colonial masters to Naira and Kobo. It was also the year in which Nigeria‘s oil boom began.

    Corps members were paid a monthly stipend of N100 which was only a little less than the new salary of a fresh University graduate at that time. That stipend was not to be increased until the 1980s when inflation began to force the corps members to agitate for more. And for most of the 1980s the stipend paid to corps members was not more than N200 per month. It was only in the 1990s that the stipend attracted some major reviews. And, besides the stipend paid by the federal government and private companies also paid some token to those deployed to them for service. That was in addition to accommodation provided. All these are no more as corps members are now deployed at their own expense. The idea is that they should bear all their expenses from the N19500 or thereabout paid to them monthly. As a matter of fact, the new policy just formulated and which will take effect in November 2014 is that every Youth Corps must pay the sum of N4000 to the federal government for accepting to serve the same government. The newly imposed amount may be reviewed upwards in the near future. That is an evidence of patriotism in Nigeria.

    Irony of Life

    Ironically, some so-called former militants of the South-South who are virtually illiterates without any skills and are not engaged in any job are paid N60000 per month for doing nothing other than laying down their weapons of vandalism. The implication of this is that any youth who wants to share in the federal government‘s largess can just carry arms and engage in vandalism and then be invited to negotiate with the government for a regular monthly salary in lieu of violence. Those who were being forced to serve their country for paltry monthly N19500 were University graduates. And those who were paid N60000 per month for doing nothing were stark illiterates not even qualified to aspire to future leadership. Yet after one year of compulsory service by those corps members, there is nothing for them in terms of job even while the ex-vandals will continue to enjoy their largess of N60000 per month. What an irony? What a country?

    Apart from preparing corps members for formal post graduation jobs and managerial administration in theory, NYSC is also supposed to serve as a major employer of labour by opening doors for many job seekers to be employed across different cadres. But is this the case now? There are hundreds of thousands of University graduates who have served their fatherland only to end up loitering around and riding motorbikes on commercial basis. Is this how to develop a nation? If University graduates are rendered so useless in a country where sheer mediocre are glorified what future is expected of such a country?

    The year 1973 in the history of Nigeria can be called the turnaround year. But how much of that turnaround was utilized for the benefit of the country is a different question.

    Read Also: Tinubu to University unions: prioritise dialogue to avoid frequent strikes

    During the celebration of the 20th anniversary of NYSC scheme in 1993, the need to reassess and upgrade the scheme arose. Thus, Decree 51 was promulgated on June 16, 1993 to replace Decree 24 of 1973 with which the scheme was originally established. The aim of the new Decree was to look beyond the immediate present and think of the future leadership of the country for which the corps members were being groomed. This was done with a view to giving them the proper guidance and orientation relevant to the needs of the country. But now, 51 years after the establishment of NYSC, what is the result?

    Deep down in the hearts of the formulators of the NYSC policy the scheme was primarily to inculcate in Nigerian Youths the spirit of selfless service to the community, and an emphasis on oneness and brotherhood of all Nigerians, irrespective of cultural, social or religious backgrounds. The history of our country since independence has clearly indicated the need for unity amongst all our citizens. And, looking at the scheme retrospectively, it is evident that its real effect is vivid not only in the understanding of the cultural settings of certain tribes by corps members from other tribes but also in the settlements of some of those corps members in some parts of the country which, hitherto, could never have been in their dreams.

    Pertinent Questions

    Now, over 50 years after the commencement of this visionary scheme how much of the country‘s objectives have been achieved? Does the scheme truly remain a national service that it was design to be or a servitude to a political clique called leaders? In its early days, NYSC was the pride not only of the serving corps members and undergraduates looking impatiently towards their turn to serve but also that of the nation. Does that still obtain today? Has corruption not derailed the original purpose of that laudable scheme? Are the genuine graduates of Universities and Polytechnics not being replaced by ghost graduates as characteristic of Nigerian system? Are graduates qualified for the service not being delayed for a year or two to enable corruption thrive by bringing in hoodlums and political thugs at the expense of the nation?

    Have factors like nepotism and tribalism not crept into the scheme today? Have stories of embezzlement and other financial scams not disorientated potential corps members and devastated the zeal in them to serve their nation? And what has become of hundreds of thousands who have served in the past many years? Are Nigerian graduates useful for Nigeria today as originally planned?

    Further Questions

    Is Nigeria really reaping the fruits of the NYSC scheme today? Should compulsory service to the nation be an end or a means to an end? And now that corps members are incessantly becoming sacrificial lambs either at the slaughter slabs of some barbaric elements in the north or in the dragnets of some brutal kidnappers in the East shouldn‘t there be a review of the law guarding that scheme if only to safeguard humanity and civility? Should parents continue to lose their children at that level to barbarism and unwarranted brutality in the name of non-existing national unity? Some people sat down to plan the establishment of this scheme. But besides planning to use the scheme as an instrument of embezzling money what plan does the current government have for sustaining it and safeguarding the lives of the youths being compelled to serve the nation? 

    Conclusion

    These and many other questions are begging for urgent answers from the current government while some elements in the government are getting richer by the day. If the pleasant past produced the agonizing present to the benefit of a clique of misfits let no one assume that the agonizing present will produce any hopeful future. The days of life are never the same in other countries. They cannot be the same in Nigeria.

    ‘Allah never changes the situation of a people (or a nation) until those people have sincerely repented and refrained from their iniquities’. Q. 13:11

  • Whenever The Sultan Speaks…

    Whenever The Sultan Speaks…

    The Sultan of Sokoto and President General of Nigerian Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs (NSCIA), His Eminence, Dr. Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar, CFR, mni, would be 68 years old in August, a date he shares with the late Bashorun MKO Abiola, the Nigerian President-elect who was prevented from assuming office.

    His Eminence was about 50 years old when he ascended the exalted throne of the great Sokoto Caliphate in November, 2006 as the 20th Sultan of that  great Caliphate. But typical of his exemplary humility and dedication to man’s humanity to man, His Eminence does not celebrate birthday for two reasons:

    In emulation of Prophet Muhammad (SAW), he deliberately abstains from ventilating a joyous atmosphere for himself in a situation where many ordinary people are wallowing in penury.

    He personally perceives aristocracy of birth, if there is one at all, as a rare privilege rather than a right. To him, such a privilege must not be flamboyantly celebrated in a way to arouse any psychological chagrin in underprivileged people. Thus, instead of sitting down glamorously, to celebrate birthday in royal regalia, like his royal colleagues, His Eminence deliberated with the Governor in the Northern State and shared thoughts and ideas with him on how to settle the crisis in that State. That was because, as usual, the Sultan abhors any act of violence let alone killings and counter killings as a perennial case in that State.

    That is Sultan Mahammad Sa’ad Abubakar for you. And, he had embarked on similar mission severally in most parts of the country ever since he ascended the Sultanate’s throne in 2006.

     Preamble

    Leaders are not those who ascribe leadership to themselves politically by whim or by caprice. The real leaders are the very few ones who are sincerely acknowledged by their followers, publicly or privately, as effective leaders in intent and in action. This Sultan is a typical example of the latter category. The great man’s leadership traits are not, in anyway, hidden. He neither speaks just to be heard nor acts just to be seen. His utterances which are in tandem with his actions, are always timely and meaningful, not just for the Muslim Ummah in Nigeria, but also, for the entire black race. And, he combines certain qualities, the likes of which distinguished the second Caliph in Islam, Umar Bn Khattab, clearly among the first four Caliphs.

    Read Also; Aiyedatiwa set to inaugurate Adelami

    For Nigerian Muslims of today, Sultan Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar is a vivid reminder of Umar Bn Khattab’s leadership prowess at the early stage of Islam. This Sultan is a bold and charismatic soldier like Umar Bn Khattab. He is visionary, firm, humble and affable like Umar Bn Khattab. And, he believes so much in leadership by example just like Umar Bn Khattab. Perhaps that is why he is so close to the ordinary people in his day to day running of the Sultanate administration in Sokoto and that of the NSCIA just as Umar Bn Khattab was. 

    His Royal Antecedent

    Over a decade ago, Sultan Abubakar spoke passionately with touching concern, at a public function, on three important issues, each of which is now vividly manifesting in Nigeria. First, he advised the three tiers of government to use the then booming oil revenue to ventilate the economic environment for possible mass employment of the teeming youths in the country. Secondly, he warned the people in government, at that time, against sustenance of mass unemployment of youths which he described as a time bomb that could explode anytime. Thirdly, he attributed the rising rate of criminal tendencies in the country to mass unemployment of able bodied youths and ravaging poverty in the land. He then cautioned those in government against criminal consequences of that ugly situation. At the time the Sultan made that speech, the menace of banditry, kidnapping and Boko Haram /ISWAP insurgency had not become as much a threat as they are today. 

    Admonition

    On the occasion at which he delivered the above mentioned highly valuable speech, His Eminence also admonished Nigerian Muslims not to be bellicose towards non-Muslims in reaction to provocative utterances and obnoxious conducts of some disgruntled charlatans in the country who were masquerading in the cloak of religion.

    He counselled the Ummah to rather educate any non-Muslim who might want to tread the path of religious transgression against Islam than resort to hate speech and mudslinging. In that speech, His Eminence concluded that it was only in a peaceful atmosphere that people of diverse spiritual and temporal backgrounds could comfortably co-exist in a multi religious and multi tribal society like Nigeria.

     Impact of His Leadership

    Since his assumption of office as the Sultan the impact of His Eminence’s leadership both as a royal father and the Commander of Nigerian Muslim Ummah as well as the CUSTODIAN OF NIGERIA’S NATIONAL MOSQUE, has been unprecedented in history. This Dr. Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakr, CFR, mni, is one of the most mobile personalities in thoughts and in action in Nigeria as well as in the entire world. The reverberating echoes of the historic lectures about peace and harmony which he delivered at Harvard, Cambridge and Oxford Universities in 2011 are vehement attestation to the above assertion about his leadership.

     In Retrospect

    When this great man was five years old on the throne in 2011, yours sincerely wrote an article about him in this column which remains as relevant today as it was then. An excerpt from that article is as follows:

    “In every crowd of horizontal men there is always one vertical man who deserves honour not much because of his vertical position but because of the significant difference which that position makes in a society.”

     History and Man

    “History and man are like Siamese twins or a pair of scissors. The one cannot function effectively without the other. History makes man just as man makes history. And, the reciprocal baton that symbolises their togetherness continues to change hands between them as long as they remain in existence”.

    “In November 2006, an official announcement of the sighting of a human crescent which had remained hidden in the firmaments of the orbit was made. That crescent turned out to be the towering personality generally known today as the Sultan of Sokoto. His name, Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar did not ring any bell in Nigeria before the referred historic announcement. But thereafter, he was crowned ‘The Sultan of Sokoto’ precisely on November 6, 2006.

    Thus, the emergence of Brigadier General Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar (rtd.) as the successor to the exalted throne of the great Sokoto Caliphate without any controversy came as a surprise to many Nigerians. At 50 years of age then, many people thought that he was one of the youngest men to ascend that throne in many decades. But he humbly disagreed with that assumption as he recalled that his own father, Sultan Abubakar Sadiq III who died in 1988 ascended the throne at the age of 37.

     His Pedigree

    With a sound military background coupled with a sound intellectual aristocracy and a high level diplomatic exposure, this Sultan has been perceived, since coming into office, as a millennial royal Commander divinely designated to pilot the affairs of Islam and the Muslim Ummah with unequalled success.

     Philosophers’ Assertion

    Given the qualities highlighted above, only a few people will want to disagree with the Philosophers who once asserted that every new century has a way of producing a great leader. The example of Dr. Abubakar is a manifest attestation to that assertion.

    Ever since he assumed the exalted royal office of the Sultan 18 years ago (2006), this great man has convincingly exemplified all the qualities of genuine leadership in an aura of personification. Every statement he has made socially, religiously or politically and every action he has taken publicly or privately has proved to be a school from which all well-meaning people continue to learn one lesson or another.

    As ABU Chancellor

    Five years after his assumption of office, the symbiotic relationship of history and man was reconfirmed in Zaria, on Wednesday, (November 23, 2011), when a galaxy of well-meaning men and women from all walks of life and from all parts of the world, assembled to say “we are here to bear witness”. That was the day His Eminence was installed as the Chancellor of Ahmadu Bello University (ABU), Zaria. The occasion was just one of many on which laurels that have been accruing to him since he assumed the royal office as Sultan.

    An American President, Harry S. Truman (1884-1972), once described a leader as “a man who has the ability to get other people to do what they don’t want to do and like it”. By his activities and functions so far, Sultan Abubakar has proved Truman right by demonstrating to the Ummah that the time has come for the reformation, not only of the NSCIA, but also of the Sultanate.

    Education in Islam

    In Islam, education is the first law. It is only through it that man can understand life in all its ramifications. That was why Allah’s very first revelation to Prophet Muhammad (SAW) in the Qur’an, ordained education for Muslims thus: “Read in the name of Allah Who created; He created man from clots of blood; Read! Your Lord is the Most Bountiful One, Who taught man by the pen; He taught man what he (man) did not know…”Q. 96:1-4.

    To further emphasise the compelling need for education in Islam, Prophet Muhammad (SAW) was reported to have said in one Hadith that “knowledge is a lost treasure. Muslims should search for it and pick it wherever they could find it”.

    But information is the main source of education just as education is the source of knowledge. Without information there can be no education. And without education there can be no progress. That is why the Sultan started his reformation of the Sultanate from the premise of education. It is only with education that most problems in man’s world can be solved without much ado.

    Sultan Abubakar also believes that education without social harmony is like a virtue without value and that there can be no harmony in a society where people are overwhelmed by ignorance and poverty as in Nigeria. Thus, he has consistently focused on both.

    Installation as Chancellor

    At his installation as the Chancellor of ABU in 2011, Sultan Abubakar told the crowd that “the current socio economic indices in Nigeria were a clear indication that the country had begun to drift”. He lamented the fact that despite the nation’s unprecedented resources, development had failed to match the national wealth.

    In his words: “Corruption has emasculated our progress even as poverty and unemployment have pushed citizens to the brinks, fueling and confounding social conflicts even as inter-communal crisis has extracted heavy toll in both human lives and property”. He went further to say that: “Persistent insecurity has generated panic and anxiety; our social and physical infrastructures are far from meeting the needs of the nation; the country appears to be adrift and at the core of all these is moral decay engendered by ignorance and greed.” He also noted that no reformation of the tertiary education sector in the country could be effective without putting in place, the progressive developments required in the basic and senior secondary education sectors”. His Eminence insisted that: “our state governments, especially those of the North, must begin to realize the enormity of the challenges facing the education sector and take urgent and necessary steps to address these challenges.” He lauded the founding fathers of the ABU, particularly, the late Sarduana of Sokoto, Sir Ahmadu Bello, and urged the authorities of the school to continue to abide by the cardinal principles on which the institution was founded.

    Royal Voice Against Corruption

    This Nigeria’s renascent Sultan is a man who, though at the topmost echelon of the tree of comfort still feels so much concerned about the plight of the peasants who are hopelessly consigned to the weeding of the shrubs by official policies. He has never relented in his advocacy for good governance, denunciation of corruption and religious intolerance.

    Interfaith Engagements

    When His Eminence was invited in January 2010 to a religious seminar organised by the Nigerian Christian with the theme: ‘Knowing Your Muslim Neighbour’, he delivered an historic speech that reverberated meaningfully across the entire world. And in May, same year, he also invited the leadership of CAN to a special conference of the NSCIA held in Kaduna. The theme of that conference was: ‘Islam in the Eyes of the Christians’. He is the first Nigerian first class Monarch ever to engage in such an interfaith affair at the national level and his speech on that occasion was quite electrifying as usual.

    Electoral Reform

    In his special counsel to the National Assembly, and indeed all tiers of Government, His Eminence said those in government should not relent in their efforts to engineer electoral reform and to ensure that Nigerians have a genuine electoral process that guarantees free and fair elections. “Unless and until we do that, our nation will continue to be haunted by the unholy alliance between fraudulent elections and illegitimate electoral outcomes, the consequences of which we all know very well. We must break away from this vicious circle and confer on Nigerians the power and indeed the ability to decide, freely and willingly, who leads them at all levels of governance”.

    “….There is also the urgent need for us to re-evaluate our conception of leadership as a nation…. needless to add, that there is no way we can make genuine progress as a nation when a significant number of our populace wallows in abject poverty unable to secure the requisite means for their sustenance and to cater for the health and educational needs of their families. Democracy must build a humane society capable of looking after the legitimate needs of its citizenry. For it to be truly successful, it must be able to bring real progress to all sectors of our diverse society. “Finally we must all work hard to limit the influence of wealth in our society and to support those values that promote social responsibility, excellence and hard work”. Now, where is the role of birth in all these?

    Grassroots Interaction

    Sultan Abubakar is, no doubt, a leader who knows the problems of his followers and associates with them in solving those problems. Through his humble interaction with all Muslims in Nigeria irrespective of tribal or geographical boundaries, he has become the first Sultan to create a strong feeling of a united Muslim Ummah under a competent and kind leader. And by speaking out incessantly against policies which seem to deliberately impoverish ordinary Nigerians across board, this Sultan has brought a rare hope to Nigeria and the Muslims are the luckiest for it. Such a leader deserves allegiance, loyalty and regular prayer from the Ummah. We pray for the elongation of his life with very sound health and continued Allah’s guidance. Amin!

  • Reinvigorating anti-terror war (1)

    “Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win”… Sun Tzu…Chinese Military General, Strategist, Philosopher and Writer;

    The escalation of terrorist activities in the nation’s capital Abuja is an indication of worsening insecurity in Nigeria which must be handled as a matter of Number 1 national priority. This is because the quest to turn around the Country’s economy will remain a mirage unless insecurity is contained and that is the reality. Accordingly, it is on that premise that I decide to m share insights on what I consider root causes, and major inhibitors to tackling insecurity in Nigeria, and also proffer some ways forward. I will share my insights and humble opinions in a serialized reflection, starting with the episode of today as Part 1.  

    In the past 15 years insecurity in Nigeria has been deteriorating, consequent upon which insecurity has consistently gotten worse in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, the Capital of Nigeria, the seat of Power, and the headquarters of all the Armed Forces. The recent onslaught of kidnappers, bandits, and armed robbers in Abuja is what could potentially heighten the sense of urgency and the need at the leadership level to tackle insecurity head-on to avert the worst national disaster. 

     In May 2021, during the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari, the residence of the Chief of Staff to the President was burgled and vital valuables were carted away, and since then Nigerians and the general public have been told that security agents have been at the heels of the criminals, and 3 years after we are yet to if they were apprehended and prosecuted. The significance of this example is that the residence of the Chief of Staff within the Presidential Villa, i.e. the residence and offices of the President and Commander-in-Chief of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. If the House of the Chief of Staff of the President within the presidential villa which should be a security fortress and one of the last lines of defense for the President and his family, and yet the perpetrators of such an act were not intercepted before they committed the act or arrested years after the act, then this portends the kind of clear and present danger that insecurity situation in Nigeria.  

    DIMENSIONING THE ISSUES 

    To dimension the issues so that we can appreciate the situation more than we think. Because unless we undertake sincere and professional root-cause analysis and take the right actions Nigeria will further plunge into the abyss of backwardness. 

    Security has been allocated 12% of the 2024 budget, which signifies the importance that President Tinubu’s administration attaches to National security. However, due to the depth of the insecurity and issues of transparency and accountability in the procurement and deployment of security assets over the past 15 years, the huge investments in defense and security assets and resources have not yielded a reasonable tangible return on investment or impacts. It is also instructive to note that the cost of defense and security is very high everywhere in the world. How our leaders prudently and effectively manage our investment in defense and security will determine how Nigeria will fare in the fight against insecurity. It  

    According to the Global Fire Power Index which rates the military power of any Country in the world, Nigeria is currently 4th in Africa, behind Egypt, Algeria, and South Africa respectively. Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa, standing fourth in terms of military firepower whereby the total population of Egypt, Algeria, and South Africa is less than that of Nigeria. That tells you how bad things have become from 25 years ago when Nigeria was standing ahead in military power in Africa and even globally, we can appreciate how dire the situation is today. 

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    In terms of the number of armed forces, there are currently about 370,000 police officers in the Nigeria Police Force with a ratio of 1 Police Officer to 600 Nigerians. Recently the IGP made a public declaration that the Nigeria Police Force requires an additional 190,000 personnel which in my opinion is not enough. I advocate that the NPF needs not less than 250,000 gallant boots on the ground are needed for the NPF to make any meaningful impact and contain the insecurity situation in the mid to long term not even in the short term because of the timelines for the hiring, training, kitting, and deployment processes.  

    In the case of the Nigerian Army, there are less than 300,000 boots on the ground at a time when we are facing multi-dimensional insecurity issues. While in the past week, there has been a hue and cry with regard to insecurity in Abuja, I would rather we expand our attention and discussions to the entire nation. We need to understand that the rate of kidnapping, banditry, armed robbery, etc. reflects an over-arching national security situation. 

     Moreover, there are less than 30,000 Nigerian Immigration Service officers manning our land, marine, and air borders, with over 1,400 unmanned and illegal land borders. Secure borders are a critical success factor in securing the nation.  There are less than 10,000 Nigerian Security and Civil Defense Corps (NSCDC) officers in the entire Country.

      Meanwhile, ISIL, ISIS, and Boko Haram have been holding sway, and expanding their reach carving out territories for themselves in states in the North West, North East, and North central with a potential incursion into the Southern region of Nigeria. They are already flying their flags in some northern states of Nigeria particularly Zamfara, Borno, and Niger while collecting taxes and royalties from innocent citizens of this Country due to some factors I will enumerate later in this submission. Therefore, the situation is a wakeup call to leaders at all strata in Nigeria under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu that when we allow States to continue facing the vagaries of terrorists and economic saboteurs and we think it will not come to us the criminals and terrorists have brought the battle to the seat of power. 

    Bandits and kidnappers have been declared terrorists in Nigeria 

    The insecurity situation in Nigeria has been getting so bad that in January 2022, the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari declared bandits, rapists, kidnappers, and their likes as terrorists, based on the judgment granted by Justice Taiwo Taiwo of Federal High Court, Abuja in November 2021. The judgment was the verdict to a Suit instituted by the Federal Government due to the precarious situation of insecurity in Nigeria. Subsequently, in January 2022, all groups associated with or engaged in kidnapping, rape, and banditry were proscribed in a proscription order which in the Federal Republic of Nigeria Official Gazette dated November 29, 2021, volume 108 declared banditry and kidnapping to be terrorist acts and illegal in any part of Nigeria, and are proscribed pursuant to sections 1 and 2 of the Terrorism (Prevention) Act, 2011.” With regards to participation in the proscribed groups’ activities, the gazette stated that “any person or group of persons participating in any manner whatsoever, in any form of activities involving or concerning the prosecution of the collective intentions, or otherwise, of the groups referred to in paragraph 1 of this notice, will be violating the provisions of the Terrorism (Prevention) Act, 2011 and liable to prosecution.”.

    The above-stated judgment and subsequent gazette were expected to strengthen the fight against insecurity by the federal government, but insecurity has only been getting worse. 

    Furthermore, the bandits, kidnappers, criminal gangs, drug dealers, illegal miners, and terrorists are dominating our socio-economic spaces and have successfully set up an intricate organized criminal enterprise in Nigeria setting up their flags at various locations, imposing taxes and royalties or citizens in impeded, sacking villages communities and towns sometimes to extinction, etc. They are becoming bolder and stronger daily, and they are modifying their strategies, and forming local and international strategic technical and ideological alliances. 

     In addition, they use advanced and use the latest technology to drive their missions and achieve their objectives. 

    The terrorist have infiltrated our armed forces, regulatory and law enforcement agencies, our civil service, traditional and religious institutions, and our corporate world, especially the financial services sector. They have become a pandemic that if not handled properly will soon push Nigeria into doom and oblivion.

     The structure, logistics and other operational support of the terrorists are advanced, functional, and consistently effective. Their tactics though predictable are yet to be effectively countered and out-maneuvered. They are further emboldened daily due to the amount of money that they are able to turn over and launder to procure arms, ammunition, tactical gear and other equipment, food, Medicare, and other logistics support. They are carving out empires within our country unhindered and unperturbed.  

    What remains to be seen is how Mr. President and his team will fight this hydra-headed monster that is about to devour Nigeria. Unless we face these realities honestly, sincerely, and effectively, we will continue to circle these issues and the consequences will be dire. 

     In the next episode, I will continue to dimension the root causes and inhibitors. I will also subsequently share my thoughts on possible ways forward. 

  • Upholding Muslim Unity

    Upholding Muslim Unity

    The above quoted verse of the Qur’an is a vital obligatory aspect of Islam  which came directly, as a divine order, from the Almighty Allah, Who made the religion of Islam an act of worship for people who sincerely surrender themselves to His will. Thus, any deviation from that divine order is a cultivation of endless restiveness for self, in all circumstances.

    From this, it becomes clear that unity is a vital norm of Islam that no genuine seeker of societal peace would want to discard.

    Web of Unity

    If there is any time, in the history of Nigeria, when the largest Muslim Ummah of the black race, needs to build a most formidable web of unity, as a fortress, it is now.

    For centuries, most Muslims, in various parts of the world, have consistently deviated from holding unity as an Islamic principle while, at the same time, perceiving certain adherents of some religions, other than Islam, as their enemies. But, ironically, in reality, there are no enemies for Islam or Muslims, anywhere, other than the Muslims themselves.

    A thorough and sincere examination of this assertion will surely confirm this. In a nutshell, Muslims are the enemies of both Islam and fellow Muslims.

    Preamble

    Here in Nigeria, if anything is called Satan, and that diabolical entity truly lives in the midst of humans, Nigeria must be its abode.

    As a mysteriously damnable entity, Satan may not be physically perceivable, but his shadow is evidently vivid in the evil machination  generally called politics. And, certain elements, in the society, including some ambitious  Muslims, who are often proud to be called politicians, are the agents of that unperceivable diabolical entity called IBLIS.

    From whichever angle it is perceived, Politics, as played in Nigeria, by Nigerians, today, will be seen as infectious leprosy.

    Any contact it makes, with human fingers,  will surely render those fingers ineffective with contagious implication. Although, Politics, generally, is a social necessity that cannot be totally avoided in any human society because of its irreplaceable role in socializing humanity, nevertheless, the method of handling it in Nigeria, has practically turned it into a paradoxical slough of a snake which has no life of its own but scares the people around it, despite its empty appearance.

    Without the way politics is being played globally, today, the entire world would have been in perfect harmony.

    Reminiscence

    Since her independence in 1960, Nigeria has hardly experienced any social calamity that did not emanate from politics, directly or indirectly. Thus, like the Island of Ithaca of yore, in the Greek mythology, Nigeria, now, harbours a sphinx that frequently confronts all citizens with an unanswerable question. And, the inability to answer that question, correctly, by anybody, has become a desperate sphinx threatening to devour our country from time to time. For how long can we continue to cope with this situation before the bubble will finally bust, is a fundamental question that urgently requires a practically fundamental answer.

    Paradoxical Odyssey

    Today, politics in Nigeria is a paradoxical odyssey, the ship of which cruises dangerously on an ocean of uncertainty. And, the sailor of that ship is the stolen money desperately used by the minority, in pursuit of power, to the gross disadvantage of the majority of citizens.

    We are now in an era when the source of money being squandered on politics no longer matters as much as the money itself.

    What really matters, in today’s Nigeria, is not how decent you are, as a person, or, how valuable you are as an expert in any field of endeavour, but how rich you are, no matter the source of your richness. In a nutshel, a rich rogue is by far more relevant and more important to an  average Nigerian, today, than a gentleman without money.

    As a matter of fact, there is no gentlemanliness without money. It is actually the size of your purse, or that of your bank account, that determines the status by which you are recognized in the society.  And, that has now become the new definition of pedigree on the one hand, and, the secret god which most Muslims have adopted as an option.

    It is not surprising, therefore, that, even Muslim men and women of letters, as well as high caliber professionals are now struggling to become servants to mere nonentities who, by hook or by crook, have struck the opportunity to occupy public positions in a clueless government in order to control an enclave in Nigeria’s treasury.

    The world has changed so much that the same money which used to serve man in the past is

    now the master that man serves with relish. In the face of money, conscience has become a lost paradise that no one seeks again. And, with its disappearance, human dignity has also become an old wife’s tale. Whither Nigeria’s tomorrow, in all these, is a question reserved for the future to answer.

    The Wilderness of Avarice

    In the wilderness of  avarice and aggrandizement audaciously imposed by money, Nigerians of today have lost the culture of dignity highly cherished by Nigerians of yesteryears and there is no sense of nostalgia for it.

    No matter the solo or chorus that the song of this era may bring into today’s music of politics, it will still be discovered that the bottom-line of ambition and desperation, among Nigerian politicians, is nothing but satanic avarice.

    When a hopeful country finds itself in this kind of situation, she quickly resorts to the last bastion for solution. And, the last bastion, in the case of Nigeria, as presented by charlatans, is religion, which is being conspicuously, but undeservedly, displayed as the First Estate of the Realm.

    Sailors without Compass

    As far as religion is concerned, most of the so-called clerics in both Islam and Christianity, in Nigeria, today, are like sailors, on a strenuous voyage, who have lost the compass that should guide them in sailing through the tumultuous waves of water while their congregational passengers continue to pray fervently for safety on a turbulent  ocean.

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    To those clerics, religion is no longer the path to salvation but a short cut towards material wealth even as they have relegated morality to its lowest ebb. Here is a country where clerics do not only preach material prosperity but also live in stupendous affluence in the midst of their wretched congregations.

    Here is a country in which clerics are either known for trafficking in drugs or gun running or serve as patrons for suppliers of ammunition as in the case of a notorious episode of a mission to South Africa, in 2014, that suddenly ended up in a fiasco. Some of those clerics are even known for  taking corporate bribes from the politicians as in the case of an alleged N7 billion (when Naira had value) that caused wild brouhaha within the religious sphere, in Nigeria, in the same 2014. Here is a country where neither conscience nor morality has a role to play in religion, any longer, as the so- called clerics have technically banished both and, thus, become, not just accomplices of political rogues but mostly the barking dogs for those politicians.

    That is the situation which became an irresolvable bone of contention and breeder of disunity among Nigerian Muslims, over politics. Now, at the political crossroads, will this situation be further allowed to function at the expense of Islam? That is a question that will be further discussed in this column, in a foreseeable future, in sha’Allah.

  • Major determinants of the World’s direction in 2024

    Major determinants of the World’s direction in 2024

    Russia–Ukraine Imbroglio Global and sub-regional peace and economics will continue to be impacted by geo-politics. Geo-politics is significantly influenced by the foreign policy direction of the United States of America and its allies and the reactionary foreign policies or initiatives by China, Russia, and other Countries.  

    The Russia-Ukraine impasse (which in my opinion) is avoidable, has lingered on a seeming “stalemate” on paper. But in my opinion, Ukraine has suffered heavily in terms of infrastructure, human capital loss, and a wrecked economy which will probably take Ukraine almost 50 years to recover to become the Country that it used to be in the global economic and socio-political scheme of things before the onset of the war in 2022. The devastating consequence of this war, gets some people like me wondering, “if there could have been better options and approaches to the Russia-Ukraine crisis in the interest of Russians and Ukraine in particular and the entire world in general?” Certainly, the Russia- Ukraine Imbroglio has ravaged the global economy almost resulting in a global recession with devastating impacts on food security, supply chain disruptions, oil supply and pricing, energy supply to Europe, and the resultant effect of the cost of living crisis, etc.  

    In the case of Russia, President Vladimir Putin is not likely to shift ground but rather refine his mid to long-term strategy because so far, his strategy has been working more for him than the US and EU strategy for Ukraine.  

    If the Russia-Ukraine imbroglio continues unabated without a change in the political strategy disposition, it will continue to impact negatively on global and national economies.

    Israel-Palestine Conflict – The War in Gaza

    With the outbreak of the war in Gaza, the US and its allies have re-prioritized and re-focused the allocation and deployment of their man and material resources to seriously support Israel leaving Ukraine to struggle on its knees midway into the war without all the resources that Ukraine has been asking for or the requisite support. I hope that in the interest of global justice, peace, and prosperity; reason and rationale will prevail so that a better win-win strategy and action plan for global peace will be on the table. I am also an advocate of a two-state Solution to the Israel-Palestine logjam.   

    The escalation of issues in Gaza has boosted support for Palestine by Iran Houthi rebels etc. which will only continue to escalate the war and its effect on innocent non-combatants. This asymmetrical war will also have long-term negative impacts on Israel and its allies.

     Unless there is fairness and justice in addressing the Gaza situation, the world will not be insulated from the tangible and intangible dire consequences of this protracted crisis. 

     Sub-regional political impasse and rising insecurity in Africa

    The sub-regional political impasses and insecurity in Africa, particularly in the Sahel region may likely escalate unless the ECOWAS and AU come up with better stratagems for longer-lasting solutions to the multi-dimensional geo-political and insecurity challenges that are bedeviling the entire African continent.  

    UK Elections

    About 3 million overseas Britons are now eligible to vote in the upcoming UK general elections which will take place in the second half of this year. These new electorates will certainly make an impact on the outcome of the upcoming UK general elections that will determine the fate of the incumbent Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, especially with the sentiments and interests of the UK electorates on the current education, health, and immigration policies of Mr. Rishi Sunak’s administration. The ongoing latent civil war within the Conservative Party will also be a threat to the Party’s unity of purpose to be formidable going into elections against a more stable Labor Party (albeit they have their own internal wrangling that may be easier to resolve). The aforementioned factors as reflected in the recent outcomes of local elections in 2023 where the Labor Party candidates won are indicators of days to come. I reckon that there will be a review of Homeland (especially Immigration) and Foreign policies if the Labor Party wins the Prime Minister seat or even if the Conservative Party wins due to internal sub-ideological differences within groups in the Conservative Party. Currently, Prime Minister, Mr. Rishi Sunak is not enjoying the best of Polls or support within the Conservative Party. However, it turns out that the outcome of the UK PM elections will reflect global geopolitics and economics, especially in the US and Europe.

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    US Elections

    With former President Donald Trump’s latest triumph at the IOWA Caucuses despite the political optics and legal challenges he is facing, Mr. Trump looks set to give the incumbent President Joe Biden a good fight. If so, we may likely see the likelihood of a re-occurrence of the 1979 scenario whereby an incumbent President, Mr. Jimmy Carter, of the Democratic Party lost to the Republican Party candidate, Mr. Ronald Regan. If that scenario plays out, President Joe Biden may lose to Donald Trump. A dramatic return of Mr. Donald Trump to the White House will certainly lead to a 180-degree turnaround of USA policies, positions, and dispositions especially in areas of foreign policy, immigration, investment and trade, AI, homeland security, etc. There will be a total overhaul of the homeland security and foreign policies direction of the Biden administration. Of course, the aforementioned impacts are expected only if and when Mr. Donald Trump of the Republican Party takes over the presidency of the USA. However, forward-thinking Countries will be keenly watching the US politics and presidential election as it unfolds as they contemplate their strategy beyond 2024.  It is worthy of note Joe Biden is currently facing one of the lowest polls of an incumbent American President in history, especially in the areas of homeland security, immigration, and foreign.

     ECONOMIC GLOOM

    •The current global economy trajectory is not looking good based on geo-politics, and climate change which has impacted food security, infrastructure, human capital, etc. According to the World Bank;

    •The second half of 2024 will be the slowest half-decade of GDP growth in 30 years! 

    •Escalating geopolitical tensions could create fresh risks for the world economy. “Meanwhile, the medium-term outlook has darkened for many developing economies amid slowing growth in most major economies, sluggish global trade, and the tightest financial conditions in decades.” 

    •Cost of borrowing for developing economies—especially those with poor credit ratings—are likely to remain high with global interest rates stuck at four-decade highs in inflation-adjusted terms.

    •Global growth is projected to slow for the third year in a row—from 2.6% last year to 2.4% in 2024, almost three-quarters of a percentage point below the average of the 2010s. Developing economies are projected to grow just 3.9%, more than one percentage point below the average of the previous decade.

    BRICS

    The BRICS strategy is certainly working as the BRICS countries include major world powers, such as China and Russia, and countries that are major powers on their continent, such as South Africa and Brazil. The group currently has a combined population of 3.5 billion i.e. 45% of the world’s population. It has a combined economy of over $ 28 trillion which is about 28% of the global economy. BRICS countries will also be producing about 44% of the world’s crude oil.

     The Russia-Ukraine war has further divided the world economically with consolation of the BRICS nations as a counter-measure to the globally dollarized economy which is slowly but steadily posing a threat to the US Dollar and certainly the US economy in the mid to long term – it is just a matter of time.

    CLIMATE CHANGE

    Global warming remains a big challenge to the world. Climate change has been having a devastating impact on our Agriculture. Climate change management should be. A key element of the Agriculture sectoral reform strategy will be risk assessment and mitigation as well as the sustainability modules. Climate change management from the point of view of early warning systems, disaster/crisis mitigation management, and proactive countermeasures and processes that should cover dependencies and counter-dependencies are critical to the existence and sustainability of our entire world going forward. 

    The collective execution of the action plan at the just concluded climate change conference COP 28 which took place in Dubai UAE last month will be a critical success factor

    ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 

    The rapid rate at which Artificial intelligence (AI) is growing and its impact across ecosystems and value chains is so fast that Countries and organizations that do not take the advent of AI seriously will not only be left behind in development but will suffer the devastating consequences of its threats and risks. 

    A POINT TO NOTE

    What should remain etched in the minds of world leaders (including Nigerian), is the fact that based on the aforementioned realities and projections; the earlier we seize the moment to deal with the fundamentals, and/ or the building blocks, the better our chances of keeping up or catching up (if possible) with the rest of the world.

  • President Tinubu’s tenacity of purpose

    President Tinubu’s tenacity of purpose

    “A hero is judged by his or her performance and by the positive impacts achieved” …Professor Ali Mazrui.

    CONSTRUCTIVE DISRUPTION

    On resumption of duties from the yuletide holiday, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu started the year with a bang! Demonstrating clearly that, going forward, it will not be business as usual with governance under his watch. Within one week, Mr. President made some profound decisions and also achieved some milestones as follows:

    •He directed a full-blown investigation of the entire Nigeria’s social investment programs of the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Alleviation by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) with effect from the immediate past administration. 

    •Based on his approval, nearly $2 billion have been paid by CBN in the last three months, out of nearly $7 billion outstanding foreign exchange liabilities (accumulated by the previous administration), to clear a backlog of trapped FOREX in a bit to stabilize the Naira and boost confidence in the foreign exchange market.

    •Approval of the immediate dissolution of the Board of Directors of Union Bank, Polaris Bank, and Keystone Bank with the appointment of new Boards to protect shareholders and depositors’ funds.

    •As part of his bid to cut down the cost of governance, Mr. President ordered the immediate cutting down by 60%, of the volume of the official entourage on local and international travels – of the President, the Vice President, and other leaders at the federal level while urging the Governors to do the same.

    •Etc.

     The above-mentioned actions and achievements are indicators of how Mr. President will drive governance, going forward. Through these actions, he is also sending a clear warning to members of his cabinet and administration that there will be zero tolerance for non-performance, high-handedness, and corruption. 

    Love him or hate him. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s actions in the last week have demonstrated his tenacity of purpose which has attracted commendations even from some of his political opponents and critics. Kudos Mr. President!

    A WAKE-UP CALL

    The actions of the President in the past week are also a wakeup call to all leaders and officials of this administration that Nigerians will not see and experience the level of impunity and abysmal performance of the previous administration that actually wrecked the economy so badly.

    LEADERS SHOULD BE MEASURED AND DISCIPLINED

    I wish to counsel public officeholders and other government officials that they should be more modest and circumspect in the way they behave in office. The display of affluence including cash (mostly US Dollars), and other irresponsible behaviors by top government officials in the face of brutal socio-economic challenges is an insult to Nigerians and sabotage to President Bola Tinubu’s efforts to turn around the socio-economic situation of the Country. Such delinquent and irresponsible behaviors also show, not only the lack of maturity to hold such public offices, but the conducts also show lack of capacity and readiness to live above board which is a core tenet of good leadership, especially at that level. People who do not share the vision, passion, respect, and empathy that Mr. President has for Nigeria and the seriousness with which he takes his job, should have no business being in his team.

     The lack of empathy and in some cases crassly irresponsible behaviors that even embarrass Mr. President and other Ministers and government officials who are of good standing, leave much to be desired. Such public office holders come across as if they are given office to enjoy jamborees or “largesse”. They are not no measured or mature in their utterances and conducts  as they do not demonstrate high ethical standards and respect for the office they occupy to serve their Country at the highest levels – It is saddening.

    OPTICS OF NIGERIA AT INTERNATIONAL ARENA

    The international community including multilateral agencies and donor agencies will never take us seriously when we go to beg for money, claiming that our Country is facing serious socio-economic challenges, while our leaders arrive at the location of the meetings and events displaying affluence and wealth, going on shopping sprees, etc. That is an anomaly and an anathema that should be stopped if we want to be genuinely respected and taken seriously by serious countries and organizations.

     Furthermore, I urge Mr. President to stop top government officials from attending functions, events, and meetings in which they have no place, relevance, or value to add. In any case, I look forward to the outcome of the performance review of the FEC and the action Mr. President will take on that, which I believe will give more clarity on the direction of Mr. President, because if indeed the performance review is done objectively, which I believe it will be; some of the “roaming” or “galivanting” officials will be shown the way out by Mr. President as he asserted during the inauguration of FEC. The focus should be on adding tangible values and not photo-ops, social media prop-ops, and presentations for managing perceptions.

    THE ROLES OF THE ACCOUNTANT GENERAL AND THE AUDITOR GENERAL 

    The Accountant General of the Federation and the Auditor General of the Federation should be more alive to their responsibilities of providing decision support for Mr. President, the Ministers and CEOs of MDAs. They should be more proactive in prevention rather than being more reactive, by exercising control and ensuring compliance with processes. I urge these two key functionaries who are crucial to the success or failure of any administration, to be more proactive in preventing wastages, blocking leakages, and even preventing crimes and economic sabotage. This is because the cost of remedying damages, and wastages caused by corruption is much more than the cost of prevention. 

    Based on the above mentioned, I advocate that Mr. President should add “cost efficiencies”, “savings”, “prevention of economic sabotage, etc. as a part of the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for the Accountant General of the Federation and Auditor General of the Federation going forward. The performance matrices should empirically show how much (in Naira, US Dollars and other values) they are able to save for the federation, or the leakages they blocked, processes they improved, level of compliance they ensured, etc. I am sure that Mr. President’s antecedents in Finance and Audit will add value.

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     I advise Mr. President to keenly watch these two roles because they are amongst the gatekeepers of our economy and are crucial to the ongoing economic reform strategy and initiatives. 

    BUDGET AND MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL

    I wish to remind our government functionaries that a Budget is a tactical planning document, and not a license or approval to go on spending sprees. We do not have to spend all the money in our purses or that we plan to borrow, as provisioned in the budget of MDAs.

     Accordingly, I also advocate that “cost efficiencies” and “savings” should be amongst the KPIs of budget performance which should be part of the overall performance management framework and system (in case they are not already embedded in the performance management system.

     In addition, I also recommend that in the interim, Mr. President should place a monthly cap on the expenditures of MDAs with a monthly limit of expenditure threshold beyond which approval must be secured from Mr. President or the FEC which will be subject to justifications and demonstration of values and impacts of the expenditures incurred. This will be an additional control to manage wastages and block leakages. I recommend that this practice should be an intervention given our current serious socio-economic dilemma. When the socioeconomic storm is over, the approval limits could be reverted to the status quo.

     OTHER CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS

    •Restructuring Nigeria and, Value re-orientation

    •Political Will and High Execution Quotient at the top starting with Mr. President to all leaders at all strata of governance.

    •Enforcement of regulations and the respect and compliance to the rule of law are a sine qua non to the progress of Nigeria.

    •Review of the structure and cost of governance for an efficient public sector – Upgrading and streamlining governance framework (across all strata of the Public Sector). For example, the execution of the Oronsaye Report. 

    •Entrenchment of the culture of meritocracy, competence, federal character, and performance.

    •Zero tolerance for procurement malpractices.

    •Stoppage of Budget padding

    •Entrenchment of the culture of excellence and prudence in the public sector by providing quintessential leadership, i.e. starting the reforms from the top and setting examples with zero tolerance for indolence, mediocrity, nepotism, and sycophancy. 

    •Transparency and Accountability in public service, resource allocation and utilization

    •Anticorruption Strategy and Value-Reorientation: Beyond mantra to action through realistic, practical, and pragmatic plans and actions with the requisite strategy, management, and execution.

    •Tight control on revenue-generating MDAs to ensure operational excellence, zero leakages, and high-level accountability are also critical.

    •Regulatory and Law enforcement agencies should also be proactive, result-oriented and impactful

    I hope that Mr. President will sustain this tenacity of purpose which will lead to positive impacts and will further win the support of Nigerians. May Almighty God Continue to Bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

  • Some critical issues on Foreign Direct Investment

    Some critical issues on Foreign Direct Investment

    “If people cannot trust their Government to do the job for which it exists – to protect them and promote their welfare – all else is lost” … Barrack Obama, the 44th President of the United States of America.

    President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been consistent that he will continue to use Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) as the key pillars of economic development if his administration. Mr. President has also made FDI a key component of the 2024 budget driver. 

    However, unless key factors are considered and addressed, I worry that the good intentions of Mr. President will not yield the desired outcomes. 

     FDI Trends and Outlook 

     According to Statista:

    •In 2011, a peak of 8.84 billion U.S. dollars was achieved. Moreover, in 2018, a considerable drop was registered, as FDI in the country amounted to 780 million U.S. dollars.

    •Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows in Nigeria registered a decrease of around 190 million U.S. dollars in 2022, compared to a surplus of 3.31 billion U.S. dollars in the preceding year. 

     New data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that FDI in the country fell by 33 percent in 2022. This is more worrisome due to the fact that the trajectory has been dwindling since 2015, as foreign direct investment (FDI) to Nigeria has plunged to $468.91 million, the lowest in at least nine years, according to official data. This has been having dire consequences on socio-economic growth.

     According to the United Nations

    •UNCTAD’s World Investment Report 2023 reveals a widening annual investment deficit that developing countries face as they work to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030.

    •Africa’s FDI fell by 45% in 2022

    •After a strong rebound in 2021, global FDI fell by 12% in 2022 to $1.3 trillion, due mainly to overlapping global crises – the war in Ukraine, high food and energy prices, and soaring public debt.

    •On a positive note, greenfield investment project announcements were up 15% in 2022, growing in most regions and sectors.   

    Read Also: Customs will meet N5.1tn 2024 revenue target, says CG

    Some points to Note

    •The lack of a purpose-driven foreign exchange management framework has further weakened investors’ confidence over the past 9 to 10 years and is one of the key de-motivations for investors. For example;  

    •Over $ 800 million of foreign airline funds are trapped in Nigeria, according to data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). 

    •In addition, in the past 4 years major investors have left Nigeria due to the aforementioned challenges. Examples of such investors include Shoprite, one of the major oil and gas ‘companies Exxon Mobil is moving to Egypt, and recently GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), and lately Procter and Gamble (P&G) announced plans to discontinue operations in Nigeria, 

    •The way forward for Nigeria, is to as a matter of priority improve and upscale our competitiveness in terms of our critical infrastructure i.e., intermodal transportation network; power; logistics and supply chain platforms i.e. the airports and the entire aviation value chain; seaports and the entire maritime value chain, land borders; products value addition and processing.  Therefore, our preparedness domestically is very critical. There should be a holistic approach in collaboration with relevant stakeholders to formulate an overarching strategy to achieve the key objectives and importantly reining in the benefits for Nigeria and consequently for Africa. To improve our trade volumes and increase incomes, we need to improve the state of our not-so-competitive manufacturing and industrial sectors that are struggling under multiple global socio-economic variables, it is a major red flag. Multiple taxation and leakages; and tax policy incoherence are other major barriers to success. 

     CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS 

    I posit that there are 6 critical success factors that should be considered thoroughly in reining in FDIs. I am not saying that they are not currently considered but I am of the view that more attention should be focused on them so that we learn from past experiences. For example,  the recent assertion the by Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development is a confirmation of the concerns and reflags that my humble self and other stakeholders have severally raised during the immediate past dispensation with regards to concession of the Nigeria Airports Concession, and the Air Nigeria imbroglio as cases of instance.

    1.     Integrity and Transparency of The Process

    The opaqueness of running FDIs and PPPs should be removed by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. There should be transparency and accountability in the entire process and operations of the FDIs/PPPs so as to avoid further complications to Nigeria’s economy in addition to the burgeoning debt issues that are dealing brutal blows to our economy. Because defective FDIs/PPPs could transmute into another form of debt which will further subjugate our Country for vested interests.  Therefore, I expect the wealth of experience of President Bola Tinubu’s Strategy, Finance, Audit, Consulting, business, and track record of successful delivery of major FDIs and PPPS to come into play as he champions the FDIs as he has already been doing and most importantly in ensuring the successes and socio-economic impacts of FDIs and PPPs at national and subnational levels during this administration. 

     A robust stakeholder engagement with a transparent dashboard to show all concerned and indeed Nigerians the progress of the investments/ project on a need-to-know basis.

    2.     Investment, Business and Operational Modelling

    We need to be sure that the FDI/PPP models we are adopting are the correct models for the overall socio-economic interests of Nigeria. For example, from the snippets of what we have heard with regards to Air Nigeria as an example; you will note that issues started from the modeling of how Ethiopian Airlines was given a chunk of stake, the distorted local content value, etc. 

     The model is very important in all economic sectors because the model will determine factors like ownership structure, shareholding, Return on Investment (ROI), socio-economic benefits, etc. We should be thorough in considering and deciding which model to adopt depending on the investment portfolio and the sector, i.e. the model of the transaction, operational model, and model of the entire framework of the project; and in doing so we need to involve all the critical stakeholders to ensure that we think through the options over and above parochial interests. Therefore, going forward there should be new deal-making models to ensure responsible critical national asset management. 

    3.     Legal Framework

    I know that Mr. President has a track record of successful FDIs and PPPs at the subnational level when he was the Governor of Lagos State, but suffice it to say that at the national level, it is a different ball game because we don’t handle our FDIs/PPPs well. About two months ago, it was all over the mainstream media that one Mr. Pramod Mitta, the younger brother of the Billionaire Concessionaire that is behind the Ajaokuta Steel project, Mr. Lakshmi Mittal was able to leverage the legal loophole in the legal framework of the PPP and is able to a critical national asset access $500million to service a debt that he incurred in another country. This is a good example of How the lack of proper planning and efficient legal framework support system for our strategic and operational engagements with our foreign partners is costing us. Therefore, going forward, I advocate for the full involvement of subject matter experts and all relevant government agencies to x-ray the agreements to ensure that all the provisions in the legal framework save all the interests of Nigeria before we proceed, in essence, the outcome of the legal framework should be a win-win for Nigeria and for the investors and ensure that in the long run, Nigerians are not subjugated to foreign investors/ nations with no value to Nigerians. The situation whereby in some cases some MDAs operate in silos should no longer be acceptable in this administration.

     I hope that Mr. President will mandate the “dos” and “don’ts” of the FDIs and PPPs going forward.

    4.     Project management and Execution Quotient

    From a project management perspective, the project management framework and execution quotient of operating the FDIs/PPPs must be high with zero tolerance for laxity or slippages. This is So that the terms and conditions and deliverables of operationalizing the PPP, especially the EPCC (Engineering, Procurement, Construction, and Commissioning) module is delivered timely and qualitatively with full value for money and impacts. This will ensure that people will not come under the guise of investing in our critical infrastructure and end up enslaving us. This will also safeguard our FDI projects and PPPs from becoming white elephant projects, an example is the Ajaokuta project that has been comatose albeit billions, if not trillions of Naira have been lost or wasted in the project to no avail. 

    5.     SECURITY

    The insecurity situation in Nigeria needs to be dealt with as a matter of priority so as to engender more confidence and trust in FDIs and domestic investments. The insecurity issue must be addressed for the productivity of the country in terms of increased crude oil throughput, agriculture, and other non-oil sectors. 

    6.     Corruption 

    Zero tolerance corruption and all forms of economic sabotage, otherwise, the FDI initiatives and the national development strategy will not be successful.

  • Dreaming the past

    Dreaming the past

    Monologue

    When responsibility is entrusted to an incompetent person expect the end of time”. Prophet Muhammad (SAW)

    The above quoted Hadith was particularly in reference to leadership in any given society. When the Prophet was to send Mu‘az Bn Jabal to Yemen as Governor, he asked him a pointed question as a way of confirming that his choice was right. He said asking Mu‘az: ‘how will you govern the people in that country?. The latter said he would use the laws of Allah as contained in the Qur‘an. Then the Prophet asked: ‘and if you cannot find a relevant solution in the Qur‘an? Mu‘az said he would use the Prophetic tradition (Sunnah). Then the Prophet further asked: ‘and if relevant solution is not found in Sunnah? Mu‘az said he would adopt the consensus of opinions of learned scholars‘‘. Then, the Prophet asked: ‘and if you cannot get a consensus? Mu‘az said he would use analogical deduction based on the three sources of law mentioned above. Thus, with Mu‘az‘s satisfactory responses, the Prophet technically confirmed the four sources of Islamic law by which any leader in an Islamic society should govern. The summary here is that governance should be by law and not by whim. And that is how the four laws of Islam started.

    The Prophet’s Conclusion 

    Thereafter, the Prophet counselled him as follows: ‘when you get there, my dear Mu‘az, endear yourself to the people and do not be hostile. Be kind to them and do not be wicked. Be lenient with them and do not be harsh. Be considerate with them and do not be dictatorial. Be compassionate to them and do not be sadistic. Be sensitive to their plight and do not be indifferent. Be transparent and do not be seen as corrupt. Be a man of your words and do not be seen as a liar. Fulfil your promises to them and do not renege on such promises. Be trustworthy in utterances and actions and not be seen as a betrayer of trust. There are three signs by which a hypocrite is known. When he talks he lies; when he promises he reneges and when he is trusted he betrays. Remember that a leader is like a shepherd who cannot claim to be successful in a day until he has coasted home the last sheep in his flock. And every shepherd shall be asked by the Almighty Allah about what he does with the flock in his care’.

    Thus, the historic conversation between the Prophet and Mu‘az confirms that good leadership is the bedrock of peace, decency and progress in any society.

    In contemporary time

    Today, many countries including Nigeria are dangerously restive because of deviation from that yardstick by irresponsible leaderships. A nation without a responsible leadership is like a body without head. Such a nation is likely to wander aimlessly and indefinitely in the wilderness of life just like the Egyptian gypsies of yore even as her citizens wallow helplessly in abject penury.

    Read Also: Customs will meet N5.1tn 2024 revenue target, says CG

    Man ordinarily takes food for granted until he faces hunger where food is not available. He takes sound health for granted until he falls sick. He takes freedom for granted until he becomes a prisoner and he takes peace for granted until he faces war. One of the signs of living in a bad time is to keep remembering the good old days with nostalgia. Such is a confirmation that the past is better than the present. This is the situation in which overwhelming majority of Nigerians find themselves today in a country naturally and abundantly enriched with milk and honey.

    Ghana for instance

    Who could have believed some years back that this same country called Nigeria might become a beggars’ own country one day? When political calamity engendered by economic mismanagement struck Ghana in the 1980s, Nigeria was the only rescue haven in Africa for hundreds of thousands of Ghanaians who trooped into this country for all sorts of jobs including menial ones. Thus, from that experience, one would have thought that a lesson had been learnt by Nigerian leaders never to subject the citizens of this country to a similar misfortune. But alas, the situation in the past 40 years or there about has proved otherwise. Ironically, the reality today, is that the citizens of this sixth largest oil exporting country in the Africa have become beggars being deported from a onetime calamitous Ghana that sought and got economic rescue in Nigeria. The same Ghana is today a model for Nigeria virtually in all things that is decent and civilized.

    God, in His infinite mercy does not create any living thing without adequate provisions for its existence. He endows individuals and nations with wealth in time and space as a trust. But He does not physically come down to manage such wealth for anybody. Neither does He give anybody the authority to redistribute it. But in the end, the managers of such wealth will be asked to render account on how they manage it. Individuals and nations become humanly and materially rich only by Allah‘s will at the place and time divinely earmarked for it. Any manipulation of such wealth by certain greedy cabal can only pave way for an untold calamity.

    Fly in a botttle

    Like a fly in a bottle of wine which drinks and drinks till it dies in there, today‘s Nigerian rulers see their position as an opportunity to suck Nigeria‘s oil wells dry at the expense of the masses to whom those oil wells rightly and legitimately belong. These rulers have forgotten that if the oil reserve had not been divinely meant for this generation it could have been discovered and consumed by many generations long before ours.

    Nigerians of today have found themselves in a dream land. They are not only dreaming of what they ought to be as against what they are. They are also dreaming of the good old days in this same country that once gave them the confidence to build hope in their future as well as that of their children. That hope has practically become forlorn. Without necessarily sounding pessimistic, if there is any expectation for an ordinary Nigerian today, it is for death as despair is currently the song of destiny.

    Telling the history of Nigerian oil cannot end with the present generation. It surely extends to the future. Where are the founding fathers of Nigeria especially those who strove for the discovery of oil? Was the current situation their dream? Even as Prime Minister and Premier respectively, Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa and Alhaji Ahmadu Bello, the Sardauna of Sokoto borrowed money from banks to purchase their cars and build their houses. They never possessed more than those even when their political contemporaries were accumulating empires. It is easier to be a legatee than to be a legator. The greatest spendthrifts are those who do not know the source of money in their possession.

    Oil wealth

    It is rather ironic that oil wealth which serves as the source of fortune for many countries is the main source of Nigeria‘s misfortune. At least this country was economically steady and progressive before the so-called oil boom. At least there was no oil money when Nigeria went through a civil war for 30 months without borrowing one kobo. Why has oil boom become oil doom?

    In his nine years in office as Head of State, General Yakubu Gowon took the price of PMS from 6k to 9.5k per litre. After him was General Murtala Muhammed an obvious man of the people who never tampered with the price of oil till his death in 1976. It was General Olusegun Obasanjo who first took oil price by a leap moving it from 9.5k to 15.3k in his three and a half year reign from February 1976 to October 1979. In his own four years and three months in office, President Usman Shehu Shagari never tampered with the price of oil. And General Muhammadu Buhari who succeeded him maintained the status quo as he never increased fuel price even by one kobo during his 20 month rule. Thus, between 1979 when Obasanjo left office and 1985 when Buhari was overthrown, the oil price remained same and Nigeria did not fail as a nation.

    When the self-styled Military President Ibrahim Babangida took over in 1985, his first focus was on oil. It was he who moved the price of PMS from 15k to 70k in his eight years of governance. But by far the greatest leap of oil price in Nigeria  was introduced by Chief Earnest Shonekan the then interim Head of State who took the price from 70k to N5 within the 87 days of his illegal rule.

    Then General Sani Abacha the maximum despot who forcefully hijacked power in October 1993 moved the price of PMS from N5 to N11 within his five years in office. That was an average of N1 increase per year. When Abacha died in 1998, General Abdul Salami Abubakar became the Head of State and virtually concentrated on oil. He can be called Nigeria‘s Head of oil fields. It was he who took the price of PMS from N11 to N20 within the ten months he ruled Nigeria. When General Obasanjo returned to office as elected President in 1999, his first port of call was oil. Capitalizing on the precedent laid by General Abdul Salami Abubakar, he went ahead to raise the price of PMS from N20 to N70 within eight years he spent in office.

    Ebele Jonathan

    Now, to prove that the removal of the so-called oil subsidy by previous rulers in Nigeria was a child‘s play, President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan decided to surpass them all even if all Nigerians would go to the gallows. After consultations with various stake holders and interest groups including traditional rulers, religious leaders, Labour Unions, ASUU and NANS, all of whom objected to any removal of subsidy at this precarious time, Mr. President decided to go ahead with his plan not minding any contrary opinion. His argument was that facilities like roads, hospitals, schools, refineries and rail system must be provided even if at the expense of the lives of Nigerians. And such removal must be done at a time when the feeding allowance of his family and that of his deputy was unilaterally fixed at about one N1billion per year then. Mr. President was calling on Nigerians to sacrifice while the cost of his medical services in the Presidential clinic was then about N1.2 billion even as another N300 million was earmarked for replacement of his kitchen utensils. For his trips abroad in 2012 alone about N10 billion was earmarked.

    But to show a good example of sacrifice for the nation, he and his Ministers have resolved to cut their salaries by 25% though we are not told the amount of each cabinet Minister‘s salary. And nothing is said about their undisclosed allowances.

    That is exhibition of power for you.

    Thus by the signature of one man appended to an obnoxious policy imposed on the populace, it is certain that many lives would be lost, many marriages would collapse, many children would drop out of school and many agreements would crumble causing irreconcilable rifts. These did not happen in the time of Yar‘Adua because there was no cause for such.

    Yar’adua as President

    With Yar’adua as President, Nigerians did not see their newly rekindled hope ending up in a paroxysm of despair as the case of Goodluck Jonathan’s time. Until he came on board as President, every other person that ruled Nigeria except Shagari and Buhari had claimed that there was subsidy on oil.

    Due to his short time in office, Yar‘Adua might not have been perceived as a great achiever but the few achievements he recorded were quite remarkable.

    If those achievements had been sincerely inherited and maintained, Nigeria would not have been plunged into such a quagmire as Goodluck Jonathan’s time.

    At least with his few achievements, many ‘FIRSTS’ can be attributed to him in the history of Nigeria. For instance, he was the first Nigerian President to publicly declare his assets and those of his wife on assuming office. He was the first Nigerian President to publicly admit that the election which brought him into office was flawed thereby promising to reform the electoral process the machinery for which he sincerely put in place before his demise. And he congratulated the Labour gubernatorial candidate, Olusegun Mimiko of Ondo State who won a court case against a PDP Governor Olusegun Agagu in the spirit of political sportsmanship. Yar‘Adua was also the first Nigerian President to confess that there was no subsidy on petroleum products and therefore reduced the price of PMS (petrol) from N70 to N65 per litre. Not only these, he was also the first Nigerian President to declare amnesty in a warless situation to ventilate a conducive atmosphere for permanent peace. If he was alive and remained in the saddle the situation of uncertainties would not have arisen. Perhaps that was why he called himself a servant leader.

    Yar‘Adua as a mortal being might have his own weaknesses, nevertheless, his short period as President wrought a remarkable foundation for this country.

    If he had not displayed the ingenuous tactics of declaring amnesty at the time he did, the story of Nigeria would have been quite different today.

    Nigerians continue to remember the good days of Yar‘Adua today because the foundation he laid for a new beginning in those days has begun to crumble so soon in the hands of his successors. Just two years before her centenary celebration as a country, the President iwa telling Nigerians that the security problem in the country was bigger than a civil war and he could hardly handle it.

    In such a situation, who will save Nigeria from the prediction of the West?

    Borno

    Meanwhile, the federal government has agreed in concert with Borno State government to pay a compensation of N100 million to the family of Muhammad Yusuf, the leader of Boko Haram who was killed by the police in their cell in 2009. The big question is WHY NOW? And who will compensate the families of several scores of many other Nigerians who were killed subsequently?

  • Dreaming the past

    Dreaming the past

    When responsibility is entrusted to an incompetent person expect the end of time”. Prophet Muhammad (SAW)

    The above quoted Hadith was particularly in reference to leadership in any given society. When the Prophet was to send Mu‘az Bn Jabal to Yemen as Governor, he asked him a pointed question as a way of confirming that his choice was right. He said asking Mu‘az: ‘how will you govern the people in that country?. The latter said he would use the laws of Allah as contained in the Qur‘an. Then the Prophet asked: ‘and if you cannot find a relevant solution in the Qur‘an? Mu‘az said he would use the Prophetic tradition (Sunnah). Then the Prophet further asked: ‘and if relevant solution is not found in Sunnah? Mu‘az said he would adopt the consensus of opinions of learned scholars‘‘. Then, the Prophet asked: ‘and if you cannot get a consensus? Mu‘az said he would use analogical deduction based on the three sources of law mentioned above. Thus, with Mu‘az‘s satisfactory responses, the Prophet technically confirmed the four sources of Islamic law by which any leader in an Islamic society should govern. The summary here is that governance should be by law and not by whim. And that is how the four laws of Islam started.

    The Prophet’s Conclusion 

    Thereafter, the Prophet counselled him as follows: ‘when you get there, my dear Mu‘az, endear yourself to the people and do not be hostile. Be kind to them and do not be wicked. Be lenient with them and do not be harsh. Be considerate with them and do not be dictatorial. Be compassionate to them and do not be sadistic. Be sensitive to their plight and do not be indifferent. Be transparent and do not be seen as corrupt. Be a man of your words and do not be seen as a liar. Fulfil your promises to them and do not renege on such promises. Be trustworthy in utterances and actions and not be seen as a betrayer of trust. There are three signs by which a hypocrite is known. When he talks he lies; when he promises he reneges and when he is trusted he betrays. Remember that a leader is like a shepherd who cannot claim to be successful in a day until he has coasted home the last sheep in his flock. And every shepherd shall be asked by the Almighty Allah about what he does with the flock in his care’.

    Thus, the historic conversation between the Prophet and Mu‘az confirms that good leadership is the bedrock of peace, decency and progress in any society.

    In contemporary time

    Today, many countries including Nigeria are dangerously restive because of deviation from that yardstick by irresponsible leaderships. A nation without a responsible leadership is like a body without head. Such a nation is likely to wander aimlessly and indefinitely in the wilderness of life just like the Egyptian gypsies of yore even as her citizens wallow helplessly in abject penury.

    Man ordinarily takes food for granted until he faces hunger where food is not available. He takes sound health for granted until he falls sick. He takes freedom for granted until he becomes a prisoner and he takes peace for granted until he faces war. One of the signs of living in a bad time is to keep remembering the good old days with nostalgia. Such is a confirmation that the past is better than the present. This is the situation in which overwhelming majority of Nigerians find themselves today in a country naturally and abundantly enriched with milk and honey.

    Ghana for instance

    Who could have believed some years back that this same country called Nigeria might become a beggars’ own country one day? When political calamity engendered by economic mismanagement struck Ghana in the 1980s, Nigeria was the only rescue haven in Africa for hundreds of thousands of Ghanaians who trooped into this country for all sorts of jobs including menial ones. Thus, from that experience, one would have thought that a lesson had been learnt by Nigerian leaders never to subject the citizens of this country to a similar misfortune. But alas, the situation in the past 40 years or there about has proved otherwise. Ironically, the reality today, is that the citizens of this sixth largest oil exporting country in the Africa have become beggars being deported from a onetime calamitous Ghana that sought and got economic rescue in Nigeria. The same Ghana is today a model for Nigeria virtually in all things that is decent and civilized.

    God, in His infinite mercy does not create any living thing without adequate provisions for its existence. He endows individuals and nations with wealth in time and space as a trust. But He does not physically come down to manage such wealth for anybody. Neither does He give anybody the authority to redistribute it. But in the end, the managers of such wealth will be asked to render account on how they manage it. Individuals and nations become humanly and materially rich only by Allah‘s will at the place and time divinely earmarked for it. Any manipulation of such wealth by certain greedy cabal can only pave way for an untold calamity.

    Fly in a botttle

    Like a fly in a bottle of wine which drinks and drinks till it dies in there, today‘s Nigerian rulers see their position as an opportunity to suck Nigeria‘s oil wells dry at the expense of the masses to whom those oil wells rightly and legitimately belong. These rulers have forgotten that if the oil reserve had not been divinely meant for this generation it could have been discovered and consumed by many generations long before ours.

    Nigerians of today have found themselves in a dream land. They are not only dreaming of what they ought to be as against what they are. They are also dreaming of the good old days in this same country that once gave them the confidence to build hope in their future as well as that of their children. That hope has practically become forlorn. Without necessarily sounding pessimistic, if there is any expectation for an ordinary Nigerian today, it is for death as despair is currently the song of destiny.

    Telling the history of Nigerian oil cannot end with the present generation. It surely extends to the future. Where are the founding fathers of Nigeria especially those who strove for the discovery of oil? Was the current situation their dream? Even as Prime Minister and Premier respectively, Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa and Alhaji Ahmadu Bello, the Sardauna of Sokoto borrowed money from banks to purchase their cars and build their houses. They never possessed more than those even when their political contemporaries were accumulating empires. It is easier to be a legatee than to be a legator. The greatest spendthrifts are those who do not know the source of money in their possession.

    Read Also: Activists blame past govt for #EndSARS protests

    Oil wealth

    It is rather ironic that oil wealth which serves as the source of fortune for many countries is the main source of Nigeria‘s misfortune. At least this country was economically steady and progressive before the so-called oil boom. At least there was no oil money when Nigeria went through a civil war for 30 months without borrowing one kobo. Why has oil boom become oil doom?

    In his nine years in office as Head of State, General Yakubu Gowon took the price of PMS from 6k to 9.5k per litre. After him was General Murtala Muhammed an obvious man of the people who never tampered with the price of oil till his death in 1976. It was General Olusegun Obasanjo who first took oil price by a leap moving it from 9.5k to 15.3k in his three and a half year reign from February 1976 to October 1979. In his own four years and three months in office, President Usman Shehu Shagari never tampered with the price of oil. And General Muhammadu Buhari who succeeded him maintained the status quo as he never increased fuel price even by one kobo during his 20 month rule. Thus, between 1979 when Obasanjo left office and 1985 when Buhari was overthrown, the oil price remained same and Nigeria did not fail as a nation.

    When the self-styled Military President Ibrahim Babangida took over in 1985, his first focus was on oil. It was he who moved the price of PMS from 15k to 70k in his eight years of governance. But by far the greatest leap of oil price in Nigeria  was introduced by Chief Earnest Shonekan the then interim Head of State who took the price from 70k to N5 within the 87 days of his illegal rule.

    Then General Sani Abacha the maximum despot who forcefully hijacked power in October 1993 moved the price of PMS from N5 to N11 within his five years in office. That was an average of N1 increase per year. When Abacha died in 1998, General Abdul Salami Abubakar became the Head of State and virtually concentrated on oil. He can be called Nigeria‘s Head of oil fields. It was he who took the price of PMS from N11 to N20 within the ten months he ruled Nigeria. When General Obasanjo returned to office as elected President in 1999, his first port of call was oil. Capitalizing on the precedent laid by General Abdul Salami Abubakar, he went ahead to raise the price of PMS from N20 to N70 within eight years he spent in office.

    Ebele Jonathan

    Now, to prove that the removal of the so-called oil subsidy by previous rulers in Nigeria was a child‘s play, President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan decided to surpass them all even if all Nigerians would go to the gallows. After consultations with various stake holders and interest groups including traditional rulers, religious leaders, Labour Unions, ASUU and NANS, all of whom objected to any removal of subsidy at this precarious time, Mr. President decided to go ahead with his plan not minding any contrary opinion. His argument was that facilities like roads, hospitals, schools, refineries and rail system must be provided even if at the expense of the lives of Nigerians. And such removal must be done at a time when the feeding allowance of his family and that of his deputy was unilaterally fixed at about one N1billion per year then. Mr. President was calling on Nigerians to sacrifice while the cost of his medical services in the Presidential clinic was then about N1.2 billion even as another N300 million was earmarked for replacement of his kitchen utensils. For his trips abroad in 2012 alone about N10 billion was earmarked.

    But to show a good example of sacrifice for the nation, he and his Ministers have resolved to cut their salaries by 25% though we are not told the amount of each cabinet Minister‘s salary. And nothing is said about their undisclosed allowances. That is exhibition of power for you.

    Thus by the signature of one man appended to an obnoxious policy imposed on the populace, it is certain that many lives would be lost, many marriages would collapse, many children would drop out of school and many agreements would crumble causing irreconcilable rifts. These did not happen in the time of Yar‘Adua because there was no cause for such.

    Yar’adua as President

    With Yar’adua as President, Nigerians did not see their newly rekindled hope ending up in a paroxysm of despair as the case of Goodluck Jonathan’s time. Until he came on board as President, every other person that ruled Nigeria except Shagari and Buhari had claimed that there was subsidy on oil.

    Due to his short time in office, Yar‘Adua might not have been perceived as a great achiever but the few achievements he recorded were quite remarkable.

    If those achievements had been sincerely inherited and maintained, Nigeria would not have been plunged into such a quagmire as Goodluck Jonathan’s time.

    At least with his few achievements, many ‘FIRSTS’ can be attributed to him in the history of Nigeria. For instance, he was the first Nigerian President to publicly declare his assets and those of his wife on assuming office. He was the first Nigerian President to publicly admit that the election which brought him into office was flawed thereby promising to reform the electoral process the machinery for which he sincerely put in place before his demise. And he congratulated the Labour gubernatorial candidate, Olusegun Mimiko of Ondo State who won a court case against a PDP Governor Olusegun Agagu in the spirit of political sportsmanship. Yar‘Adua was also the first Nigerian President to confess that there was no subsidy on petroleum products and therefore reduced the price of PMS (petrol) from N70 to N65 per litre. Not only these, he was also the first Nigerian President to declare amnesty in a warless situation to ventilate a conducive atmosphere for permanent peace. If he was alive and remained in the saddle the situation of uncertainties would not have arisen. Perhaps that was why he called himself a servant leader.

    Yar‘Adua as a mortal being might have his own weaknesses, nevertheless, his short period as President wrought a remarkable foundation for this country.

    If he had not displayed the ingenuous tactics of declaring amnesty at the time he did, the story of Nigeria would have been quite different today.

    Nigerians continue to remember the good days of Yar‘Adua today because the foundation he laid for a new beginning in those days has begun to crumble so soon in the hands of his successors. Just two years before her centenary celebration as a country, the President iwa telling Nigerians that the security problem in the country was bigger than a civil war and he could hardly handle it.

    In such a situation, who will save Nigeria from the prediction of the West?

    Borno

    Meanwhile, the federal government has agreed in concert with Borno State government to pay a compensation of N100 million to the family of Muhammad Yusuf, the leader of Boko Haram who was killed by the police in their cell in 2009. The big question is WHY NOW? And who will compensate the families of several scores of many other Nigerians who were killed subsequently?