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Category: Friday

  • Fiscal discipline is solution to concurrent budgets implementation

    Fiscal discipline is solution to concurrent budgets implementation

    Last week, the Senate of the National Assembly initiated the process of considering the proposal by Mr. President for the approval of concurrent capital budget implementation of the 2024 budget along with the 2025 budget. The issue of concurrent budget operation has been part of our national corporate culture for many years, before the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Therefore, concurrent budget implementation is a sign of the weight of legacy issues inherited by successive administrations. I believe that no responsible government will deliberately set out to implement concurrent capital budgets within a year. Therefore, I hope that the current administration will overcome the challenges and eradicate this legacy budgeting culture, amongst other challenges.  This is why, as my own civic duty and contribution to national development, on the 3rd of January, 2025, after the President presented the proposed 2025 Federal Government budget the National Assembly, I wrote on this Column a missive, titled; “Critical Success Factors for 2025 Budget”, in which I elucidated on some key factors to ensure that the 2025 budget is executed in a way and manner that is timely and effective. I will re-dimension some of them in today’s missive.

     Fiscal Discipline is crucial

    In my view, this recurring issue of concurrent budget implementation is largely due to a lack of fiscal discipline. In my view, Fiscal Discipline is one of the pillars for successful budget implementation, performance, and impacts. Therefore, fiscal discipline should begin from the stage of budget planning. It is at this point that we set our budget parameters and projections, for example, the projected global crude oil pricing, Nigeria’s crude oil throughput, and other variables. Projections are always impacted by global socio-economic dynamics, and or our internal socio-economic dynamics. Accordingly, I belong to the school of thought of being conservative with those numbers and parameters, even though the school of thought of being audacious with projections and parameters suggests that people will be put on their toes to deliver. However, as an apostle of “promise-based” leadership, I always prefer to under-promise and over-achieve, rather than to over-promise and under-achieve.

     More importantly, the world is facing one of the most unpredictable geopolitical and socio-economic dynamics in recent history, which could upset any economy that is not well hedged and reinfenced, or budgets that are not prepared with expected risks and shocks in mind. Moreover, the performance of a budget is directly proportional to the reality of the inflows and revenues that we are expecting, for instance, in Nigeria, Crude Oil output and sales, etc.

     Effective Policy Consultation and Policy Coordination

    In my view, the budget performance is also a function of budget execution quotient, policy consultation, and policy coordination. For instance, last week, the Honorable Minister of Education, Dr. Tunji Alausa, received the Accountant General of the Federation, Mr. Shamsudeen Babatunde Ogunjimi, in his office. And one of the requests by the Honorable Minister was that the Accountant General should kindly expedite the payments for food and essential commodities supplied for the consumption of students at the unity schools across Nigeria, which is significantly affecting the students’ education. He stated that sometimes he had to delay the resumption of students to schools due to the unavailability of food for the students as a result of delayed payment to suppliers.  The Accountant General, in his response, stated the challenges with the budget system, which reflects on the cash flow and payment process flow of the government, and the need to evaluate the best system to use. This scenario speaks volumes about the lack of alignment of critical policies and cash flow, which is a subset of fiscal discipline.

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     I agree with the Accountant General of the Federation that there is a need for the federal government to agree on a budget system that is most suitable to our current socio-economic situation in Nigeria. In my view there should be a consensus between the Revenue generating entities, the enablers (cost centers), and the control and compliance groups of the government under the leadership of Mr. President, such that when if a budget system is adopted, all stakeholders, across all the arms of government will buy-in and move lockstep while implementing our budgets, with dashboard updates to all portfolio holders to know their budget performance status and also to know what to expect, so that they can be assured for keeping to core mandates as well as contractual and financial commitments, while they will be able to re-prioritize accordingly. This will also enable the Accountant General of the Federation to be more effective and efficient in supporting all Arms and MDAs (Ministries, Departments, and Agencies) of the federal government. The Reports of the Auditor General of the Federation with regard to Budget implementation will ensure compliance with extant laws, regulations, and timelines, as they also provide the necessary guides for prudence and accountability.

     Budget Parameters Versus Cashflow Management

    Cashflow availability and/or backing, which is a function of revenue, and defined budget priorities, are other reasons why budget implementations of the previous year dovetail into the budget of the current year. If you plan your budget for an upcoming year and the projected/ expected revenues do not come in as expected, the Accountant General will have issues with managing the cash flow for the entire federal government. And I think those are some of the critical inhibiting factors to the successful implementation of our budgets.

     Regular Budget Performance Tracking and Review

    It is expected that at the beginning of each quarter of the year, and at the end of the quarter, there should be budget performance tracking that should be done by the Executive Arm of Government, if we are expecting challenges, then all MDAs are made aware are prepare to hedge appropriately, so as to ensure that there are no capital project clashes or slippages. The National Assembly is also supposed to take budget performance tracking very seriously from the point of view of oversight, which is also done by the various committees of the parliament. Budget performance tracking will enable the successful implementation of the current year’s budget, while it will also facilitate better budget planning for next year.

     In addition to budget performance tracking, reviews of the overall budget implementation and the social and economic impact assessments should be undertaken, not just by both the Executive and Legislative Arms of government, with the objective of eliminating this embarrassing national issue. This is so that, going forward, by 2026, we can put the issue of concurrent budget implementation behind us and be more sure-footed.  Otherwise, there are ripple concomitant effects of slippages of capital projects execution, and making the needed social and economic impacts

     Elimination of Budget Padding

    Another classic case of Fiscal Indiscipline is Budget Padding by the National Assembly. Hence, total stoppage of budget padding at federal and sub-national levels is another form of Fiscal indiscipline. For example, according to the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC), in the 2021 budget, a budget padding of about N300 Billion was inserted in the Budget, while a budget padding of about N100 billion was inserted in the 2022 budget by MDAs. Budget Padding must be contained or eliminated, if we are serious as a nation. Otherwise, monies that should be invested and expended on critical projects will be ferreted away into corrupt pockets, while critical projects will continually be moved to next year, to the detriment of Nigeria and Nigerians.

     Political Will, Fight against corruption, and Consequence Management

    The government should consider impact assessments, especially social, economic impact assessments, as critical barometers to determine the progression or trajectory of our social or economic growth and development in this country.

     Part of the consequence of running concurrent capital budgets within the same year is the domino effect on the cost of capital projects and the cost of governance. For instance, if the government was supposed to execute a project for $10Billion last year, and the project is moved to this year, the project will likely be executed at the cost of $12.5billion or more, while clashing for funding with the targeted capital projects for the current year. So, if you amortize the cost implication on projects across all sectors, the ripple effect across the entire socio-economic value chain of the country will be enormous. Hence, the more we have avoidable capital budget implementation slippages, the more we will have concurrent budget implementation and consequently capital projects implementation delays and the attendant negative socio-economic costs and impacts.

     That is why political will is very crucial to ensure that there is zero tolerance for non-performance. If Government officials are dropping the ball, if they give me projections that are not correct, and/ or they have budget implementation quotients, there should be consequences. The officials who fail to deliver should be sacked or reprimanded. After all, while President Bola Tinubu is trying to cater to the needs of Nigerians, he faces opposition parties, cynics, and critics, while the weak links in the administration sit pretty with no consequences. This will only further promote non-performance, mediocrity, and corruption. Consequently, the good people and champions of the administration will become disillusioned, demotivated, and frustrated because the indolence of others will significantly dilute the overall performance of the administration. When examples are set that there is zero tolerance for non-performance, that is the only way we can go forward. Otherwise, things will continue to get worse.

  • Solution to terrorism

    Solution to terrorism

    Preamble

    No professional builder of worth will ever commence the roofing of a house without first taking a cursory look at the structural design of such a house including its foundation. In the same token no good columnist will want to proffer a solution to a mammoth problem like terrorism without first examining the circumstances that brought it about in the first instance.

    Some few weeks back or thereabout, ‘THE MESSAGE’ has engaged in analysing terrorism from every conceivable angle revealing its genesis, exposing the role of some nations and individuals in it as well as unmasking the identity of a related kingpin called Osama Bin Laden.

    Terrorism is not a new phenomenon peculiar to modern time. It has long become a part of human lifestyle especially since man’s wants began to outweigh his needs and thereby creating greed in him.

    Since about 2000 years ago when the first act of terrorism was perpetrated, no single year has passed by without an incident of terrorism in one part of the world or another. That first act was perpetrated by a radical offshoot of the Zealots (a Jewish politico-religious sect during the 1st century AC) active in resisting the rule of the Roman Empire over Judea.

    Zealots emerged in 6 AC when Judea was put under direct Roman rule and the authorities ordered a census for the purpose of taxation. The Zealots’ argument was that acknowledging the authority of the pagan Roman Empire would mean repudiating the authority of God and submitting to slavery.

    Led by Judas of Galilee, a Zealots’ faction called Sicarii (‘dagger men’) adopted a terrorist tactics assassinating Romans and even Jews who were in favour of Roman authority or sympathetic to it.

    Although that rebellion was eventually put down, and many members of Sicarii probably including Judas, were killed, others continued to advocate uncompromising resistance to the Romans. One of Jesus’ disciples, Simon, was a Zealot (see Luke 6:15).

    According to a renowned Jewish historian, Flavius Josephus, the Zealots played a major role in inciting and sustaining the general Jewish uprising that began in 66 AC against the Romans. Although they continued to attack other Jewish groups, they fought bravely in defence of Jerusalem until its fall in 70 AC. Thereafter, another group of Zealots held the fortress of Masada against besieging Roman troops until 73 AC, when they all committed suicide rather than surrender.

    From that experience, the aggrieved peoples of the world began to borrow the idea of terrorism as a method of demanding for their rights. And thus, through the annals of history since then, terrorism has become like a triggered gun which can be fired deliberately or accidentally at anytime and anywhere.

    Based on the same experience, an Islamic movement known as the Assassins used similar tactics in their struggle against the Christian Crusaders who had invaded what is today part of Syria. That was between 1090 and 1272 AC. The Assassins embraced the same notion of self-sacrifice and suicidal martyrdom evident in some Islamic terrorist groups today. They regarded violence as a sacramental or divine act that ensured its perpetrators would ascend to a glorious heaven should they perish during the task.

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    In modern time, the word terrorism was first used in France to describe a new system of government adopted during the French Revolution in 1789-1799. Called regime de la terreur (Reign of Terror), the then new regime was intended to promote democracy and popular rule by ridding the revolution of its enemies and thereby purifying it. However, the oppression and violent excesses of the terreur transformed it into a feared instrument of the state. From thence, terrorism has had a decidedly negative connotation. The word, however, did not gain wider popularity until the late 19th century when it was adopted by a group of Russian revolutionaries to describe their violent struggle against tsarist regime. Terrorism then assumed the more familiar antigovernment slogan it has today.

    According to Encyclopedia Encarta, terrorism is by nature political because it involves the acquisition and use of power for the purpose of forcing others to submit, or agree, to terrorist demands. By unleashing terror, terrorists intend to generate publicity and draw attention to themselves in their bid to generate power. And in the process, they foster an environment of fear and intimidation that they can exploit to their advantage. As a result, the success of terrorism is best measured in terms of the attention it draws to the terrorists as well as the psychological impact it exerts over a nation and its citizenry. Terrorists typically attempt to justify their use of violence by arguing that they have been excluded from, or frustrated by, the accepted processes of bringing about political change. They maintain that though their method is reluctantly chosen and even regrettable, terrorism is the only option available to them. Agreeing or disagreeing with this logic depends on the side of the divide to which the sympathizers belong. This is what brought about the aphorism “One man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter” which underscores how the use of the word terrorism can be highly subjective depending upon one’s interest.

    Although terrorism is generally believed to be a primordial development, its intensity in modern time is strengthened by technology which engenders corporate or state sponsored terror. Prior to the invention of bomb, terrorism was limited to individuals and groups of aggrieved persons. It was only the climax of reactions by aggrieved people to negative policies of authorities or their misrule.

    All terrorists share one and the same characteristic: They never take actions randomly or senselessly. Every terrorist wants an attack to generate maximum publicity because media attention helps to achieve the intimidation needed for the success of terrorism. Accordingly, terrorist acts are carefully planned. Testimony by a terrorist convicted in the 1998 bombing of the U.S. embassy in Kenya revealed that al-Qaeda spent nearly five years to plan that attack.

    Several essential elements go into planning a major terrorist attack. Planning begins with gathering of detailed reconnaissance and intelligence about a target: its defenses, vulnerabilities, and patterns of daily activities. Meanwhile, logistics specialists ensure that all the supporting tasks are accomplished. These tasks include assembling the weapons and other supplies and communications equipment needed for the operation, arranging for safe houses and transportation for the terrorist attack team, and mapping escape routes. A bomb maker or other weapons expert often joins the final planning phases. And after all the preparations have been completed, the operation is handed over to the team that carries out the attack.

    For security reasons separate teams that do not know one another execute each step, from planning to logistics, attack, and escape.

    All terrorist groups share another basic characteristic such as secrecy about their operations. Terrorists operate underground, concealed from the eyes of the authorities and from potential informants among the populace. To maintain secrecy, terrorist groups are often organised into cells, with each cell separate from other cells in the organisation but working in harmony with them. A terrorist cell can be as small as two or three people, with only one person knowing someone in another cell. Should the authorities apprehend a member of one cell, they can obtain information only about the activities of that cell—or at most about an adjacent cell—and not about the entire organisation. For this reason terrorists prefer this organizational structure of interconnected cells. The structure narrows up in pyramid fashion, as it rises toward the group’s senior command structure and leadership at the top, to whom very few have access.

    Terrorism often targets innocent civilians in order to create an atmosphere of fear, intimidation, and insecurity. Some terrorists deliberately direct attacks against large numbers of ordinary citizens who simply happen to be at a particular place at the wrong time. More selective terrorist attacks target diplomats and diplomatic facilities such as embassies and consulates; military personnel and military bases; business executives and corporate offices as well as transportation vehicles and facilities, such as airlines and airports, railways and railway stations, buses and bus terminals as well as subways. Terrorist attacks on buildings or other inanimate targets often serve a symbolic purpose: They are intended more to draw attention to the terrorists and their cause than to destroy property or kill and injure persons, although death and destruction nonetheless often result.

    Despite variations in the number of attacks from year to year in the past few decades, one feature of international terrorism has remained constant: The United States has been its most popular target. Since 1968 the United States has annually led the list of countries which citizens and property were most frequently attacked by terrorists. Several factors can account for this phenomenon, in addition to America’s position as the sole remaining superpower and leader of the free world. These include her geographical scope and ambitious imperialist tendency as exemplified by her many military bases around the world.

    Although most terrorist groups have failed to achieve their long-term, strategic aims through terrorism, their adoption of violence has on some occasions brought about significant political changes that might otherwise never be possible. Moreover, despite the claims of governments to the contrary, terrorism has sometimes also proven successful on a short-term, tactical level like winning the release of prisoners, wresting political concessions from otherwise resistant governments, or ensuring that causes and grievances that might otherwise have been ignored or neglected were addressed.

    Terrorism was used by some nationalist movements in the anti-colonial era just after World War II, when British and French empires in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East were dissolved. Countries as diverse as, Cyprus, Kenya, and Algeria owe their independence to these movements.

    Evidence of terrorist success has come more recently in the examples of Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness in Northern Ireland and Yasir Arafat in the Middle East. Adams, the president of the political wing of the Irish Republican Army (IRA) in Northern Ireland, and his deputy McGuinness both won election to the British Parliament in 1997. Arafat, as leader of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), won international recognition for the PLO. Through tactical victories and political achievements, each of their organizations has demonstrated how a series of terrorist acts can propel to world attention long-standing causes and grievances.

    The most spectacular terrorist incident of the anti-colonial period was the 1946 bombing of Jerusalem’s King David Hotel, by a Jewish underground group known as the Irgun Zvai Le’umi (National Military Organization). The hotel was attacked because it served at that time as the military headquarters and offices of the British administration in Palestine. Ninety-one people were killed and 45 others injured: men, women, Arabs, Jews, and Britons alike. The Irgun’s commander at the time was Menachem Begin, a future prime minister of Israel and 1978 Nobel Peace Prize co-winner.

    Begin is not alone among those once called terrorists who later attained the highest levels of power in their newly independent countries. Others include Kenya’s president Jomo Kenyatta, Cyprus’s Archbishop Makarios, and Algeria’s president Ahmed Ben Bella.

    During the late 1960s and 1970s terrorism assumed more clearly ideological motivations. Various disenfranchised or exiled nationalist minorities—as exemplified by the PLO—also embraced terrorism as a means to draw attention to their plight and generate international support for their cause. The PLO sought to create a state in what was historically known as Palestine: the land that became Israel in 1948 and the West Bank and Gaza Strip—territories occupied by Israel since the Six-Day War of 1967.

    A Palestinian group, in fact, was responsible for the incident that is considered to mark the beginning of the current era of international terrorism. On July 22, 1968, three armed Palestinians belonging to the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) hijacked an Israeli El Al commercial flight from Rome, Italy, en rout Tel Aviv, Israel. Although commercial planes had often been hijacked before, this was the first clearly political hijacking. The act was designed to create an international crisis and thereby generate publicity.

    But perhaps the most conspicuous terrorist act that formed a catalyst in the Palestinian cause was that of 1972 Olympic Games in Munich, Germany at which some Palestinians stormed the Israeli camp and murdered 11 of the Jewish athletes in cold blood. That dastardly act though held the world nonplused and sent jitters to most governments it nevertheless paved way for the global recognition of Palestine as a waiting independent State.

    Two years after that tragic event, (1974) the United Nations invited the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) leader, Yasir Arafat to address its General Assembly and consequently granted observer status to the PLO. Thus, within one decade, the PLO as a political entity without a state had established formal diplomatic relations with more than 86 countries as against Israel’s 72. The PLO would likely never have attained such recognition without the attention that its international terrorist campaign drew to the plight of thePalestinians in refugee camps.

    It must be remembered that the World War I was precipitated by terrorism through the assassination of Archduke Francis Ferdinand, the heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary, by a Serbian nationalist. And it was as a result of that war that the Bolshevik Group seized the power in Russia which culminated in what came to be called Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR). The ripples effect of that development later polarized the world into the Capitalist and Communist camps with emergence of countries like Cuba and China and their entailed armament race.

    Because religion was used to justify, legitimize, and even encourage, violence in the assassinations of Egypt’s president Anwar Sadat in 1981 by a group of Islamic fundamentalists and that of Israel’s Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in 1994 by a group of Jewish extremists, the world tends to attribute terrorism to religion more than anything else. This is a wrong focus considering the various examples cited above. And besides, terrorism is now basically of two major types-internal and external both of which are inter-related. When these two are compared, one will discover that external terrorism can be more easily tackled than the internal one. But generally, what is the solution to terrorism? Read on next Friday In sha’a Llah. 

    3 Responses to “Solution to terrorism “ 

    TATA Rating:     

    said this on 05 Feb 2010 1:40:38 AM CDT

    thanks for the lesson, but i doubt with such illustrious history and rate of success, there could be a solution to terrorism…

    (Reply to this comment)

    Lumumba Rating:     

    said this on 06 Feb 2010 6:32:56 AM CDT

    You created a confusion between military tactics and strategies of national liberation movements and acts of terrorism as a weapon of war. That they both share violence in their methodologies does not make them the same. Linking Ben Bella or Mau Mau with terrorism is flying in the face of history and turning it upside down. Even going by your history, you stated terrorism started 2000 years ago. Before then nko? Or was that the beginning of history as we know it?

    (Reply to this comment)

    TATA Rating:     

    said this on 07 Feb 2010 3:43:03 AM CDT

    lumumba…first acknowledge his premise..one man’s terrorist is another’s freedom fighter…that dismisses your confusion…as for the 2000 years, he had to start from somewhere, or at least where there is a semblance of recorded or dated history…it is called historiography…

    (Reply to this comment)

  • Governors crucial to tackling electricity deficit

    Governors crucial to tackling electricity deficit

    Electricity is a sine qua non for development

    The most critical of Nigeria’s infrastructure deficits is the electricity deficit. Therefore, in my view, the decentralization of power generation, transmission, distribution, and regulation is one of the key panaceas for the electricity deficit jinx which Nigeria has been facing for over 40 years.

    Understandably, the challenges of the availability and sustainability of electricity have been sources of concern and national embarrassment, to the extent that 65 years after independence, Nigeria is yet to get to the power capacity that is more than 40% of its initial capacity over 40 years ago. Nigeria is one of the most underpowered countries in the world, with actual consumption of 80% below expectations, based on current population and income levels.

    According to CEIC, a global economic data insights provider; electricity production in Nigeria reached about 8,879 GWh in 2024, while electricity production in Egypt reached 16,900 GWh in 2024, and electricity Production in South Africa reached 18,961 GWh in 2024. Whereas the combined population of Egypt and South Africa is about 178million population as against about 227million population of Nigeria. This speaks to the precarious and unfortunate situation of infrastructural deficit that we have found ourselves in this country, and unless we deal with this issue of electricity (power) deficit, all economic recovery, development, and growth strategies and initiatives will be never be achieved.

     Certainly, major milestones have been achieved in the past three years from the twilight of the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari (when the Bill to empower States to generate, transmit, distribute and regulate electricity was passed by the 9th National Assembly), and the assent of the Electricity Act 2023 into law by President Bola Ahmad Tinubu, on his resumption in office, as one of the key policies that he immediately signed into law, recognizing the importance of power to our national development. Indeed, Mr. President understands the need to, urgently decentralize the ability to generate, transmit, distribute, and regulate electricity in Nigeria. Accordingly, this law gives the opportunity to States across Nigeria to generate their own power, based on their priorities and the availability of different sources of power in their states. This also means that while the federal government will continue holding the core responsibility of generating, transmitting, distributing, and regulating power in Nigeria, states have the prime opportunity to complement power availability, and catalyze economic recovery and development. Already, about 11 states have taken the lead and have started the process of self-regulation. The States are Lagos, Enugu, Ondo, Ekiti, Oyo, Imo, Ogun, Edo, Kogi, Niger, Plateau, and are expected to complete their transitions between June and September this year. Anambra State recently passed its electricity law and is also preparing to join the list. Abia State has taken the lead long before the Act was passed. Interestingly, of all the states of Nigeria, Kano State is not in the list of early adopters of this opportunity. Therefore, I urge the Governor of Kano State to seize the moment. This is because Kano State, as the industrial and commercial hub of Nigeria and the entire Sahel region of Africa, needs to take this golden opportunity to bring back the glorious days when Kano was a hub of commerce, manufacturing, and industry.

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     The Electricity Act of 2023 is a Golden opportunity for states

    The states that have seized the opportunity are already putting strategies and structures in place. However, we need to know that there are lead timelines required, for design, engineering, procurement, installation, construction, etc., for such a project, and an incubation period to achieve success. Therefore, the timelines of action are very important for States. And I commend the Executive Governors of those States across Nigeria that have so far been working towards achieving the independence of power generation, transmission, distribution and regulation.

     The age and dilapidated state of our hydroelectric power generation and transmission equipment in Kainji, Shiroro, and Jebba Dams, amongst others, speak to the fact that there is no way the current national grid capacity can be sustainable. While natural gas has have come into play some years ago, and has been adding critical values to the national grid, the only way we can achieve purposeful growth in Nigeria is when and if states plug into this opportunity to achieve what I call the “quick wins” of power solution in Nigeria; while the federal government is dealing with the mega projects to ensure the availability and sustainability of power in Nigeria. Therefore, I urge all of us to continue pushing for these laudable projects while the federal government, through its various institutions, including the Rural Electrification Authority, etc. undertakes proper reforms in the Power sector.

     It is also instructive, to note that the dilapidated state of power that was inherited by successive administrations, increasing cost and management of infrastructure, wanton corruption, poor infrastructure management, poor project management, lack of transparency and accountability and declining availability of expertise in this very important industry are the crucial inhibitors of getting out of the power deficit doldrum we are facing in this country. Hence, unless we deal with these issues, we will not make tangible progress. The incessant power outages are the glaring reality of how we sat on our hands, as a nation, for decades without providing the requisite enablement in terms of investment, infrastructure, capacity building, and the political will to ensure that we have power availability to drive the productive sector.

     Instances of corruption in the power sector include: the attempt by President Olusegun Obasanjo to change the game in the power sector, as he did in the telecommunications sector, has been bedeviled by corruption, as it happened during the time of President Buhari. Two former Federal Ministers of Power are facing prosecution in Nigeria and even an arbitration abroad, to the extent that two former Presidents of Nigeria, i.e. President Obasanjo and President Buhari are witnesses and have testified before the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), Paris, France, in connection with the $2.3 billion power project arbitration proceedings filed against Nigeria by Sunrise Power over an alleged breach of contract by the federal government. This situation speaks to the crucial importance of political will. Unless there is the political will at the federal and state levels, we will continue to dance around the vicious circle of power deficit in this country.

    It is clear that there is a nexus between socio-economic prosperity and the availability of power in any country that needs to industrialize to activate its productive sector and grow and sustain socio-economic development in the short, mid, to long terms.

     The Electricity Act 2023 will upscale governance capacity at the state level and also enable states to move at their own pace in terms of development. For the forward-thinking governors, they will be able to harness the opportunity to catalyze development, as we can see in Lagos and some other states. It will also reduce the timeline from conceptualization to actualization at the state level because the electricity infrastructural development could be done in a modular and scalable manner, such that the states can set up and deploy power in segments, for example, per local government, senatorial district, etc. Of course, successes will depend on the priority of the State Governor with respect to his vision and mission-critical objectives, and the strategy blue print and strategy and policies implementation. Any governor who really and truly wants to develop his state knows that power is very critical. Because any other development cannot take place, especially with regard to the productive sector, without the provision of electricity and the entire energy value chain.

     Therefore, rather than the traditional fixation on the federal government, it is time for citizens, indigents, and residents to wake up to their responsibilities of keeping the feet of their state governors to the fire, to ensure that they do the needful. By fixation, I am not saying that we should not continue constructively engaging the federal government. But this is a golden opportunity for all of us to continue speaking truth power, constructive engagements to ensure that governors prioritize policies properly and act accordingly for the betterment of the people.

     Conclusion

    If State Governors plan very well with a good strategic blueprint, and a high execution quotient, they will turn around the economy of their States in the next two years because they will start generating wealth due to systematic reactivation of the production economy. This is achievable if State Governors properly enable the private sector to deliver.

     Furthermore, diversification to renewable energy is one of the key solutions to energy deficit and disruptions. Hence, the conversations about renewable and clean energy have also presented another opportunity for quick wins for the sector. Consequently, State Governors should include the unlocking of renewable energy assets like Solar, Wind, etc., in their states, as critical drivers for success. And I commend all stakeholders in the public and private sectors who are pushing for these initiatives. While the clean and renewable energy is onboarded, Nigeria should continue to leverage the traditional sources of power to ensure that we are able to accelerate our economic recovery and sustain going forward, while keeping our eyes on the importance of managing and regulating global climate change realities. Otherwise, success and development will continue to elude us.

  • Happy New Year

    Happy New Year

    Preamble

    The appearance of today’s title in this column once in a year often looks strange to most readers since this is not January.  In Nigeria, like in most other African countries, the idea of ‘New Year’ is ignorantly believed to be peculiar to January which is the first month of Gregorian calendar. That is the effect of colonialism in our continent. From whichever angle it is viewed, European colonialism has a thick Christian coloration that still paints African culture in the rainbow of colonial tradition.

    Islam has its own calendar. And, like other calendars of the world, there is a beginning and an end for every Hijrah year. Unlike other calendars which are manmade however, Islamic calendar, otherwise known as Hijrah calendar, is divinely ordained. This is confirmed in chapter 9, verse 36 of the Qur’an as follows: “Surely, the number of months ordained by Allah when He created the heavens and the earth is twelve. Therefore, do not wrong yourselves in them….”

    The twelve Islamic months are as follows: Muharram; Safar; Rabiul Awwal; Rabiu-th-Thani; Jumadal Ula; Jumada-th-Thaniyah; Rajab; Shaban; Ramadan; Shawwal; Dhul Qadah; and Dhul Hijjah.

    The four months specifically designated as sacred months are the last four months of Hijrah calendar. They are Ramadan, Shawwal, Dhul Qa’dah and Dhul Hijjah. Some of these months have 30 days. Others have 29. No more, no less.

    Yesterday (June 26, 2025) was the first day of Hijrah year 1447. It follows the last day of Dhul Hijjah which ends last Wednesday. Dhul Hijjah is the last month of Hijrah calendar. It takes a well educated person to understand this and relate to it as such. This is what distinguishes then Osun State Governor Rauf Adesoji Aregbesola from all other governors, especially in the Southwest of Nigeria. The declaration while in office then by him of public holiday for the event is a clear evidence of justice which had hitherto been denied to the Muslims in the state.

    To demonstrate similar justice, it was hoped that other governors in the region will follow suit as a mark of civility.

    Genesis

    Hijrah calendar took its name from Prophet Muhammad’s emigration from Makkah to Madinah in 622 C.E. The use of Hijrah calendar began when Umar Bn Khattab, the second Caliph, suggested that Islam should have its own distinctive calendar saying Hijrah, the Prophet’s emigration, was so much a significant landmark in Islam that it could not be overlooked. As a matter of fact, Hijrah is one of the three main factors responsible for the survival of the religion of Islam. The other two were the victory of the Muslims in the battle of Badr which was waged by Makkah pagans against them in Madinah shortly after the Prophet’s emigration. And the third is Allah’s great promise that became an everlasting fulfilment. That promise is contained in Chapter 15 verse 9 of the Qur’an thus:

    “It was ‘We’ (Allah) who revealed the Qur’an and We will preserve it…’ and who can doubt the Almighty Allah the Creator of the entire universe and its preserver”. But for these three fundamental factors, perhaps Islam or the Qur’an would have joined the legion of defunct religions. With Allah, all things are possible.

    Significance

    In Islam, the first day of the first Hijrah month (Muharram) is more significant than Mawlidun- Nabiyyi (the birth day of Prophet Muhammad (SAW). The Prophet had existed for 40 years before ‘The Message of Islam’ came to him and nobody celebrated his birthday. Thus without

    ‘The great Message of Islam’ he would have had no cause to emigrate.

    And if he had lived for 40 years without being known in history before he became a Prophet, why should his birthday now take precedence over ‘The Great Message’ which made him the greatest man that ever lived?

    Basically Hijrah institutionalised three important aspects of life: social, economic and political. In the social aspect when the first revelation was made to the Prophet (SAW) a period of twelve (12) years was devoted by him towards inculcating the religion in the minds of individuals while no pattern of a collective life based on true religious concepts could be presented to the world. The status of the Muslim individuals in Makkah gave rise to the misconception that Islam, or rather, believing in the mission of the prophet was one’s personal affair. This was believed to pertain only to the hereafter which had nothing to do with people’s collective life.

    Social Effect

    It was only after the Prophet’s emigration (Hijrah) that people began to see Islam clearly as a way of life which paid attention to and reformed every facet of human existence. It then became evident that Islam was the religion that gave directions regarding almost every moment of a believer’s conscious life. Hijrah also enabled the Arabs in particular to see what a Muslim’s matrimonial home should be in a Muslim society. Hence, it was only after this event that the world could see the aspect of human social decency and decorum prescribed by Islam.

    The second reason for the importance of Hijrah is its economic significance which manifested in the lifestyle of the pioneer Muslims’ emigration to Madinah led by Prophet Muhammad (SAW) himself. The unsurpassable hospitality of the people of Madinah towards the Muslim emigrants did not only provide a new peaceful home for the newcomers.

    It also showed the hosts’ passionate self-sacrifice. And with Hijrah, the Makkan emigrants who became immigrants in Madinah vividly came in contact with advanced agricultural acumen and ingenuous artisanship never experienced before.  These resulted in an unprecedented economic revolution for the city. Since the hosts shared virtually everything they had with the immigrants when the latter first arrived, a lesson was learnt by the immigrants not to continue to be a burden on their brotherly hosts. Thus, every one of them adopted legitimate ways of earning righteous income.

    Moral Effect

    Initially, the Muslim Immigrants in Madinah worked as labourers in the fields, gardens and construction works. But later, they, being traditional traders, started small trading activities which brought them into an economic competition with the Jews of Madinah. One aspect of the economic revolution was that the Muslim immigrants paid the right price for every product they consumed since the Prophet had forbidden the practice of acquiring products on reduced prices in return for loans given to the artisans or to the land cultivators. The practice was prohibited because it was considered to be a form of usury.

    Thus, it was only after Hijrah that agriculture, industry and trade freely helped the Muslims to bring about an integrated, balanced and unfettered economy for the Ummah.

    Judicial Effect

    The third reason which made Hijrah a very important event is the political freedom for the Muslims. Before Hijrah, the Muslims in Makkah had no say in any matter, internal or external. They were a minority against whom the hearts of the majority were full of enmity simply because they were an insignificant part of the dominating unbelievers’ society in Makkah.

    It was Hijrah, therefore, that made the Muslims Masters of their internal affairs, external relations and matters relating to war and peace. If there was any disagreement between the Muslims and the non-Muslims, the final decision was to be made by the Prophet. This indicated a kind of autonomy to be enjoyed by the Muslims for the first time. And it was the nucleus of a city-state which, within a period of ten (10) years in the lifetime of the Prophet expanded to the entire Arabian Peninsula. It is thus evident that the event of Hijrah turned a few hundred Muslims resident in Madinah into a highly successful society.

    An erroneous act

    If the Nigerian Muslim leaders were adequately informed at the time they were negotiating religious holidays for Nigerian Muslim Ummah they would have asked for Hijrah rather than Mawlidun-Nabiyyi. Apart from coming into the world through birth like any other human being, there is nothing the birth of Prophet Muhammad (SAW) contributed to the unprecedented revolution called Islam. And, the Prophet himself did not believe in the aristocracy of birth which celebration of birthday is all about. That was why he (the Prophet) never celebrated his own birthday the way some Muslims do on his behalf today. What is more, the Prophet’s birthday is never celebrated in Saudi Arabia where he was born. What is rather celebrated in that country is Hijrah Day.

    Whereas Mawlidun-Nabiyyi is about the personal life of Prophet Muhammad alone, Hijrah Day is about Islam and the entire Muslim Ummah.

    While celebrating Mawlidun-Nabiyyi, you can only praise the Prophet and nothing more. But when celebrating the Hijrah day, you are celebrating not only the Prophet’s migration but also the triumph of Islam as the everlasting password of the Universe. That is why we exchange pleasantries by congratulating one another and by chanting the slogan HAPPY NEW YEAR!

    Compared to Hijrah calendar, the Gregorian calendar is not only artificial but alien to Christianity. It was only adopted some centuries ago as a way of distinguishing the religion of Christ from whatever preceded or succeeded it. While writing about how Gregorian calendar came into existence, a British writer and newspaper columnist, Ben Snowden said in a descriptive article entitled ‘The Curious History of Gregorian Calendar’ thus: “September 2, 1752, was a great day in the history of sleep”.

    That Wednesday evening, millions of British subjects in England and the colonies went peacefully to sleep and did not wake up until twelve days later. Behind this feat of narcoleptic prowess was not just some revolutionary hypnotic technique or miraculous pharmaceutical discovered in the West Indies. It was, rather, the British Calendar Act of 1751, which declared the day after Wednesday the second day of that month to be Thursday the fourteenth day of the same month.

    Other calendars

    Prior to that cataleptic September evening, the official British calendar differed from that of continental Europe by eleven days—that is, September 2 in London was September 13 in Paris, Lisbon, and Berlin. The discrepancy had sprung from Britain’s continued use of the Julian calendar, which had been the official calendar of Europe since its invention by Julius Caesar (after whom it was named) in 45 B.C.

    Caesar’s calendar, which consisted of eleven months of 30 or 31 days and a 28-day February (extended to 29 days every fourth year), was actually quite accurate: it erred from the real solar calendar by only 11½ minutes a year. By the sixteenth century, it had put the Julian calendar behind the solar one by 10 days.

    In 1582, Pope Gregory XIII ordered the advancement of the calendar by 10 days and introduced a new corrective device to curb further error: century years such as 1700 or 1800 would no longer be counted as leap years, unless they were (like 1600 or 2000) divisible by 400.

    If somewhat inelegant, this system is undeniably effective, and is still in official use in the United States. The Gregorian calendar year differs from the solar year by only 26 seconds—accurate enough for most mortals, since this only adds up to one day’s difference every 3,323 years.

    Despite the prudence of Pope Gregory’s correction, many Protestant countries, including England, ignored the papal bull. Germany and the Netherlands agreed to adopt the Gregorian calendar in 1698; Russia only accepted it after the revolution of 1918 and Greece waited until 1923 to follow suit. And currently many Orthodox churches still follow the Julian calendar, which now lags 13 days behind the Gregorian.

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    The use of calendars

    Since their invention, calendars have been used to reckon time in advance, and to fix the occurrence of events like harvests or religious festivals. Ancient people tied their calendars to whatever recurring natural phenomena they could most easily observe. In areas with pronounced seasons, annual weather changes usually fixed the calendar; in warmer climates such as Southern Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, the moon was used to mark time.

    Unfortunately, the cycles of the sun and moon do not synchronise well.

    A lunar year (consisting of 12 lunar cycles, or lunation, each 29½ days long) is only 354 days, 8 hours long; that is unlike a solar year which lasts about 365¼ days. After three years, a strict lunar calendar would have diverged from the solar calendar by 33 days, or more than one lunation.

    The Muslim calendar is the only purely lunar calendar with widespread use today. Its months have no permanent connection to any particular season. Muslim religious celebrations, such as Ramadan, may therefore occur at any date of the Gregorian calendar.

    To compensate for the difference in the solar and lunar year, calendar makers introduced the practice of intercalation (the addition of extra days or months to the calendar) to make it more accurate.

    Gregorian calendar

    Despite its widespread use, the Gregorian calendar has a number of weaknesses. It cannot be divided into equal halves or quarters; the number of days per month is haphazard; and months or even years may begin on any day of the week.

    Since the time of Pope Gregory XIII, many other proposals for calendar reform have been made. For instance, in the 1840s, philosopher Auguste Comte suggested that the 365th day of each year be a holiday not assigned to a day of the week.

    The French Revolution also made an attempt to introduce a new calendar. On October 5, 1793, the revolutionary convention decreed that the year (starting on September 22, 1792—the autumnal equinox, and the day after the proclamation of the new republic) would be divided into 12 months of 30 days, named after corresponding seasonal phenomena (e.g. seed, blossom, harvest).

    The remaining five days of the year, called sans-culottides were considered feast days. In leap years, the extra day (Revolution Day) was to be added to the end of the year. The Revolutionary calendar had no week; each month was divided into three decades, with every tenth day to be a day of rest. This clumsy calendar, however, perished with the French Republic because of its clumsiness.

    Conclusion

    Of all the existing calendars, only Hijrah has been generally acknowledged as unique in effect and in workability. In commemoration of the great occasion of Prophet Muhammad’s (SAW) emigration from Makkah to Madinah in 622 CE, both the Nigerian Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs (NSCIA) and the Muslim Ummah of Southwest Nigeria (MUSWEN) have sent messages of felicitations to Nigerian Muslim Ummah just as ‘The Message’ column also says HAPPY NEW YEAR!

  • Trojan Horse

    Trojan Horse

    Preamble

    Nigeria is said to be over 100 years old as a country. She became an amalgam of nations in 1914 at the instance of the British colonialists who christened her Nigeria. In her tortuous journey towards the centenary age, this so-called giant of Africa had crawled and trotted through the labyrinth of life. But she remains in the trapping maze of uncertainty even as a predicted pendulum continues to swing over her head in what is generally seen as a possible political guillotine. Can this static and stagnant country survive and transform into a nation? This is a billion dollar question anxiously begging for a satisfactory answer.

    Margaret Thatcher’s Wish

    In the twilight of her life, a former British Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher, sarcastically alluded to Nigeria’s precarious situation in a press interview some years back while celebrating her 80th birthday. She was casually asked by journalists to indicate her preferred nation if she had opportunity of coming back into this world. In her response to that curious question Thatcher said she would like to come back into the world as a Nigerian ruler an answer that threw the interviewers into a sarcastic laughter. And when asked to explain what she actually meant by that conclusion the Iron Lady said: “Nigeria is the only country in the world where people can be pushed to the wall by their rulers and they would rather enter the wall than turn back to confront those rulers”.

    Thatcher’s statement here may sound like an impetus to a parochial government, but any reasonable person will know that Thatcher was merely speaking in parable the meaning of which is that elasticity has limit.

    Good Governance

    In Islam, nothing else is held more sacrosanct than good governance which can be likened to a magnificent umbrella under which people are supposed to take cover during torrential rains or burning sun. In a democratic environment, such umbrella is owned, not by those who hold it in their hands but by the citizenry who handed it over to the holders. Its bearers are just servants holding it in trust for the people. It is only through good governance that security, law and justice can be guaranteed. For the wise who can sincerely read between the lines, Islam is the only genuine and ready antidote for the contemporary poison of life which humanity seems to have swallowed in their quest for material wealth.

    Mighty Ocean

    If Islam had just been a religion and not a way of life, it would have become like other creeds in the world today. Panel beaters would have worked on it. Painters would have re-sprayed it to suit their tastes. Fine artists would have added drawings of beauty to it for marketability. And, then, it would have become an all-comers’ trade fetching money day and night for merchants of fortune.

    But this divine religion is like a mighty ocean flowing ceaselessly towards all directions and watering all plants around into life through the deltas of adjoining rivers. It will be suicidal for anybody, government or nation, therefore, no matter how technologically advanced, to want to change its course. Those who attempted it in the past ended up drowning in it only to become meals for ‘whales’ and ‘sharks’.

    Looking at the emergence, the spread and the triumph of Islam in the midst of empires and at a time when might and nothing but might alone mattered, any right-thinking person will surely be amazed. How did a desert illiterate man of little means come up with an ideology that captured the world slaves and kings? How did he become a law giver without any training in a law school? How did he become a General without enrolling in any army? How did he become a scientist without attending any school? How did he become a doctor without undergoing any medical training? How did he become a ruler without receiving any tutelage in politics? What can be more amazing, historically or contemporarily, than to have all these roles and more combined in a single human being who rose from such a crude background?

    The great revolution which the great Prophet of Islam brought into the world cannot but beat the imagination of any sensible mortal being. There were hundreds of Prophets before him. Adam, Nuh, Ibrahim, Musa, Isa and a host of others had all come as prophets preaching peace and harmony to mankind in different tongues and at different places. But none of them combined the qualities that made Prophet Muhammad (SAW) a unique exemplar that he was. Prophets Daud (David) and Sulayman (Soloman) who were kings could though be called Generals in their own right, but they were neither scientists nor doctors. Yet, Prophet Muhammad (SAW) never claimed any miracle by magical wand.

    Emergence of Islam

    What makes Islam a unique way of life is the uniqueness of Prophet Muhammad’s personality which derived from the uniqueness of the Qur’an as the most comprehensive revealed ‘BOOK’ of Allah. If the Orientalists who were accusing Prophet Muhammad (SAW) of being a war monger were not ignorant or hypocritical, they would have known that no empire or civilisation has ever emerged or survived without fighting wars.

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    How did such old empires as the Mesopotamian, the Greek, the Assyrian, the Persian and the Roman emerge? How did the French and the Russian revolutions succeed in the 19th and 20th centuries? And, even in the contemporary time, how did America emerge as the world’s strongest power? Was it just by preaching human rights and democracy?

    The reality of today as presented by the history of the past has exposed the hypocrisy of yesteryears. Islam has transcended a stage in life when it could be intimidated or blackmailed into surrendering its identity to any spiritual charlatan.

    When the West talks of democracy today, the impression it gives is that democracy is a Western invention.

     This is very far from the truth. Despite the lengthy and speculative Platonic theories on democracy, the West did not come in contact with it, practically, until it had a political encounter with the Muslims in Spain. That was in the 8th century A.C. And even with that encounter, it remained a mere spectator in the field of democracy until expediency brought about what was called ‘Magna Carter’ in England in 1215 A.C.

    What the West calls democracy today was what Prophet Muhammad (SAW) had called ‘interactive government’ which he practiced as far back as the 7th century. At the time when he established the Islamic State, there was no single empire or nation in the entire world without a monarchical system of government. The idea of democracy, which the West came to adopt as its heritage, is purely Islamic.

    As Head of State, the Prophet never imposed any policy on the people without impute from his able disciples except such a policy came in form of divine revelation.

     In other words, he was neither a monarch nor a despotic ruler. And, as a ruler, he never saw himself as more important than any other citizen or resident in the state. That was why he was so indigent even as Head of State that his household could carry on for months without cooking any food under their roof.

    In Nigeria, this is not the case. There is no clear demarcation between democracy and autocracy. All it takes to authenticate dictatorship is to add the word ‘executive’ to either President or Governor. For instance, sometime ago, the federal government announced what it called modalities for the proposed controversial National Dialogue, which it said would now be known as “The National Conference” with the following features:

    The total number of delegates will be 492. Out of this, the Presidency alone will nominate about 141 which is almost 1/3 with fiat. Then the rest will be as follows: 15 slots for every socio-political group in each geo-political zone which amounts to about 90 slots. This means that the conference is being organised basically because of the ethnic groups in the country. The guidelines also gave two slots to each of five political parties with representation in the National Assembly.

    Speaking to journalists in Abuja,  the then Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Anyim Pius Anyim, said that all socio-political and nationality groups in  the country have been given 15 slots from each geo-political zone just as five political parties will get two slots each in the proposed National Conference. According to the Secretary to the Federal Government, Anyim Pius Anyim who announced the details of the National Conference, the venue will be Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory, while the duration will be three months. He added that there would be no go areas except for the indissolubility of Nigeria and concluded that and concluded that decisions would be reached by consensus but where consensus cannot be reached 75% majority will be used. He further disclosed that the conference would have an unimpeachable chair person, a deputy chair person and a secretary without explaining how these officials will emerge. The nominations, according to him would commence on January 30, 2013 and end on February 20, 2014.

    The breakdown of the composition of delegates would be as follows: The Federal Government would directly nominate 20 people out of whom six must be women. Nigerian Labour Congress 12; Trade Union Congress 12; Civil Society Organisations 24; the military six on the principle of one per geo-political zone; police six one from each geo-political zone; State Security Service (SSS) and National Intelligence Agency (NIA) six one from each geo-political zone; National Council for Women Society (NCWS) 12 giving two to each geo-political zone; Market Women Associations 6 one from each geo-political zone.

    Then, FIDA, NAWOJ, WINBIZ all together six one per organization; Elder Statesmen 37 one per state and FCT; NECA two; MAN two; NACCIMA two; NESG two; NUJ two; Nigerian Guild of Editors two; Newspapers Proprietors Association two; People Living with Disabilities six one per geo-political zone; Christian Leaders six; Muslim Leaders six; Traditional Rulers 13 two per zone plus one from FCT ; retired civil servants six one per zone National Youth Council of Nigeria six; NANS six; Other Outstanding Youths and Role Models six; Nigerians in Diaspora Europe, America, Africa, Asia and the Middle East one two per location; Broadcasting Organisation of Nigeria two.

    Summary

    Socio –Political/Cultural and Ethnic Nationality Groups 90 which should be 15 per geo-political zone with nominations reflecting Ethnic and Religious Diversities; Professional Bodies: NBA,NSE,CIB,NMA,NIM,NIA,ICAN, ANAN,NIPR,AAPN,NIESV 13; Nigerian Environmental Societies one per organization; National Academy 5; One each for Academy of Science, Academy of Engineering, Academy of Education, Academy of Letters, Academy of Social Sciences; Judiciary six person not currently serving on the Bench; former political office holders; former governors six; Senators Forum six; House of Reps 6; Association of Former Speakers 6; State Government and FCT 109 three per state and one for FCT based on Senatorial District at least one of whom shall be a woman; Former LGA Chairmen six one per Geo-Political zone; Chairmen, Deputy Chair and Secretary three. The cost of the conference will be N5billion-N6billion but one can be sure that the maximum will be overshot.

    Picture of Democracy

    In Islam, democracy is not about voting and power alone. It is fundamentally about justice in all its ramifications according to the rule of law. It is about tending the lives of others for the overall good of the nation. It is about providing the needs of the people according to the available resources in the nation. It is about protecting the interest of the weak against the oppression of the strong. It is about managing the wealth of the nation with diligent sense of accountability. It is about securing the lives of the citizenry in terms of jobs, feeding, shelter, health and education. It is about boosting the horizon of the youths and sharpening their hope against the future. It is about guaranteeing adequate income per capital and ensuring a standard life expectancy. Governance, whether democratic or monarchical, is fundamentally a function of culture. That is why countries like Britain will claim that their constitutions are partly written and partly conventional. Borrowing a foreign culture to practice democracy is like borrowing another man’s mouth to eat. Into whose stomach will the food go?

    When people of different tribes and tongues are forcefully fused together, the tendency is for multi-dimensional crises to remain with them perpetually. The only exception however is genuine federalism which must be adopted to enable every tribe or region conduct its affairs according to its culture. Prophet Muhammad had long warned against misplacement of issues. He said: “When the thrust of an issue is misplaced fundamentally, expect the end of time”.

    To continue to pretend that nothing is fundamentally wrong with Nigeria democratically is to hide behind one finger. And, for how long can a country do that? The Soviet Union played to the gallery in such self-deception for about 74 years before it finally collapsed into oblivion. It was hoped that the proposed Nigerian National Conference will not be a Trojan Horse that may pave way for a journey to ‘Moscow’ out of which a Nigerian Gorbachev may emerge.

    “Allah does not change a people’s lot unless they change what is in their hearts. If He seeks to afflict them with a misfortune, none can ward it off. Besides Him they have no protector”. Q. 13:11.

  • Disasters and our response to warnings

    Disasters and our response to warnings

    “It pays to invest in reducing risks before they lead to disasters”…United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR)

    Commendable leadership responses to the Mokwa flood

    The predicted flood that enveloped communities in Mokwa Local Government Area in Niger State, Nigeria two weeks ago and the devastating consequences is a stark reminder of the clear and present dangers of global climate change.

     I commiserate with the people of Mokwa Local Government Area in particular, the entire people of Niger State and indeed the Government of Niger State over this calamity. May Almighty God Console and strengthen all those who are affected. Ameen. 

    I also commend the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, His Excellency, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, for his swift intervention by donating N2 billion for the immediate provision of relief materials and relocation of those affected and the 20 Trucks of assorted food items, which was undertaken on his behalf by Vice President, Kashim Shettima. 

    Furthermore, I also commend the Governor of Niger State, His Excellency, Mohammed Umaru Bago, one of the most pragmatic Governors in Nigeria, for his swift response to managing the crisis, from Saudi Arabia where he was performing Hajj, as he coordinated through his Deputy, Comrade Yakubu Garba who was immediately on ground as a first responder providing support, while the governor quickly returned to Minna. Governor Bago has demonstrated the trademark of excellent leadership when he visited Mokwa immediately upon his return, where he announced the donation of N1 billion to the victims, pending when resettlement begins. He also announced that the roads and bridges connecting Raba and other communities with Mokwa will be reconstructed at the cost of N7 billion, and his government will also provide 50 Trucks of grains (rice, beans, maize, and sorghum), inclusive of donations from other states.

     I also commend the Governor of Borno State, Professor Babagana Zulum, who I consider one of the most consistently proactive Governors in the current dispensation in Nigeria, and all other Governors that made donations to the good people of Mokwa in this time of crisis. Indeed, this is a reciprocity of the support given to Governor Babagana Zulum and the good people of Borno State during the aftermath of the Alao Dam disaster that occurred last year, which is still fresh in our memory.

     Mitigation Imperatives

     “If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail”. This quote by the late Benjamin Franklin, one of the founding fathers of the United States of America, resonates with me and reflects on how we govern and conduct our affairs in Nigeria and most parts of Africa.

     According to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), “every $1 invested in making infrastructure disaster-resilient in developing countries saves $4 in reduced disruptions and economic impacts.”

     Therefore, having stated the above well-deserved accolades. I wish to, with profound respect, remind the governments (at federal and state levels), citizens, and residents of the importance of our individual and collective preparedness to effectively respond to crises and disaster warnings. This is so that we can efficiently and effectively mitigate the impact of such force majeures, which aligns with Pillar 4 (“Preparedness to respond to warnings) of the UNDRR’s Action Plan, on the early warning chain on disasters.

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     I worry about the state of our national and subnational preparedness to respond to warnings in mitigating the impacts of the ensuing crises/disasters. By this, I am not referring only to the current administration at the Federal and State levels, but I am referring to a national societal culture of “reactions”, rather than “proactiveness”, by both the governments and the citizens. Truly, as a people and governments, our preparedness to respond to warnings is mostly reactive, rather than proactive. We mostly wait until things happen before we react, even when the warnings are early and clear enough. Hence, there is no effective mitigation, and when crises or disasters occur, the impacts are overwhelming and multidimensional.

    On Friday, 20th September, 2024 (Last year), I wrote in this Column about the importance of proactive steps to mitigate disasters and crises with the title, “Lagdo Dam Alert- Are Warnings Good Enough?”. In addition, from 6th October 2023 to 28th June 2024, I wrote six episodes in this weekly column under the topics “Agriculture, Food Insecurity”, “Climate Change, and Cost of Living Crisis” topics; wherein I was calling the attention of governments at federal and state levels to the projected floods in 2024, other climate change variables, and the looming socio-economic impacts, especially on food insecurity, health, cost of living, etc. However, I did not see a concrete action plan to mitigate the impending threats as they were, until the disastrous bursting of Alao Dam in Borno State, which had shown signs of deterioration for decades (without interventions), and other floods across states in Nigeria. 

    In those writeups, I spoke about the importance of planning, having a strategy, and importantly taking proactive actions to forestall, effectively contain, and significantly reduce the impacts of the onslaught of floods on one hand, and also the need to improve risk assessment, disaster mitigation and management practices on the other hand. We never seem to learn from past experiences.

     There should be a template with clear pathways for individuals and families to prepare for and manage such situations, with Dos and Don’ts guidelines to guide people. Such communications should continually be coordinated at the federal and state levels from the Federal Ministry of Water Resources, the Ministry of Environment, the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), the National Orientation Agency (NAO), and other relevant government agencies.

     Way Forward – Recommendations

    The Lagos State Example

    Over the years, Lagos State has consistently been proactive in mitigating threats and risks such as flood; in terms of enforcement of regulations on building plans, construction of drainages, culverts, and other waterways, sensitization of citizens and residents, etc. Other States and Local Governments also need to be proactive in this regard.

     Governor Bago’s Example on Resettlement in Niger State

    Moreover, I align with Governor Umaru Bago’s position that IDP (Internally Displaced People) Camps are not a proper relocation, rehabilitation, and re-integration strategy. Certainly, the dehumanizing condition of IDP camps and the way we abandon our people there as if they are accursed raises the question of how we are really our “brothers’ and sisters’ keepers” in Nigeria.

     Accordingly, I applaud the decision by Governor Bago, that the N1billion Naira he donated on behalf of Niger State Government will be given to the Mokwa flood victims so that they can get temporary shelter, while an alternative location will be given to them so that they can relocate from the waterway (where applicable).

     Also, Governor Bago, has already given instructions to the Niger State Ministry of Lands and Survey to issue for certificates of Occupancy (C of O) to the Federal Government to facilitate the immediate construction of the resettlement homes for the flood victims.

     Additionally, he intends to work with the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Related Offences Commission (ICPC) to ensure transparency and accountability in the disbursement of relief materials, money, and the rehabilitation process.

     The above-mentioned examples set by Governor Mohammed Umaru Bago demonstrate his pragmatism and other excellent leadership qualities. I therefore urge other Governors to emulate such sterling leadership style, as those also consistently exemplified by Governor Babagana Zulum of Borno State.

    Key recommendations/ points to note on Action Planning

    •Leaving citizens and residents to the elements and just telling them to do their parts is not good enough! The cost of living crisis and insecurity also give fewer options for citizens and residents who could barely feed, talkless of have money for relocation and logistics. Therefore, support for logistics should be provided early (before the disaster) to the vulnerable citizens to enable them to move in time to mitigate impacts.

    •I urge citizens and residents of Nigeria to align and support all government initiatives that have to do with disaster management, especially the early warning and mitigation action plans at the federal, state, and local government levels.

    •Inter-States collaboration amongst the States that are along the flood pathway to ensure synergy in managing the crises/disasters is crucial. Because this issue has to do with the security, safety, and economy of these States. The floods have the capacity to ground the supply chain and economy of the entire Country.

    •Erosion control and valley settlements management.

    •Protection of green belts and creating new ones by the ministries at the state and federal levels.

    •Interagency collaboration, policy coordination, infrastructure protection strategies, data management, security coordination, risk advisory, and strategic alliances in the management of disasters are critical.

    •Creation of “Buffer Dams” can take overflowing water from major dams, which can also create irrigation platforms for all-year-round farming, dam-silting dams clearing tributaries

    •Continuous environmental impact assessments and acting on issues that are flagged.

    •Transparency and accountability for sharing palliatives and interventions.

     The crux of my intervention in this memorandum is that without a robust, actionable, scalable, and measurable mitigation action plan, processes, and system, the perennial climate-driven disasters and other crises will continue to overwhelm us with increasingly brutal and devastating socio-economic consequences, especially on children, women, and the youth.

  • It’s time for NNPCL to let go

    It’s time for NNPCL to let go

    The incessant shutdown of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) refineries with the attendant waste and loss of billions of US dollars with no real “turnaround” after the so-called “turnaround maintenances” were undertaken, and the macabre dramas to follow, are clear indications that the NNPC refineries are no longer productive or viable but rather they have become special purpose vehicles for corruption and waste. Therefore, it is time for the NNPC to let go of the refineries. This should have been done over 20 years ago.

     Dimensioning the issues

    Between March, 2021 to 12th of August 2021, the Federal Executive Council (FEC), under the leadership of former President Muhammadu Buhari, approved a total sum of 2.96 billion US Dollars for the turnaround maintenance of the three Nigerian Refineries, as follows: 1.48 billion US Dollars for Port Harcourt Refinery, 897 million US Dollars for Warri Refinery, and 586 million US Dollars for Kaduna Refinery. At that time, 1.48 billion US Dollars could be used to build a brand new 60,000-barrel refinery.

     In May, 2023, the then outgoing 9th National Assembly stated that, over a period of ten (10) years (from 2013 to 2013) Nigeria spent $25 billion to fix the three “moribund” refineries which amounted to about 11.35 trillion Naira (at the prevailing exchange rate at that time) on “repairs” of the country’s refineries, as the outgoing parliament called for a forensic audit of the matter (I wonder what they did to stop the slew during their eight years reign out of the ten years).

     Since January this year (2025), the Warri Refinery has been shut down, due to safety issues with its Crude Distillation Unit Main Heater. As if that was just the beginning of another meltdown, last week, around the 26th of May, the NNPC announced the shutdown of Unit 10 in Area 5 of the Port Harcourt Refinery (PHRC), officially citing sustainability concerns.

    We should also recall that, out of the above mentioned $2.96 billion that was approved by FEC in 2021, $1 billion was borrowed, syndicated from AFREXIMBANK; $450 million was borrowed through a crude oil swap agreement where a company that has a license to lift crude oil advanced the NNPC cash in exchange for giving it crude oil over a period of time as repayment with interest to do rehabilitation and maintenance. And to date, the values or impact of such huge sums of money expended for “turnaround maintenance” cannot be accounted for, seen, or felt. This is in addition to the deceptive drama of continuous failed operations of the refineries after churning out small quantities of refined products over a month or two, while the previous administrations of the NNPC keep telling Nigerians stories.

     This is a sad and unfortunate situation for Nigeria, of the inability if the NNPC to properly operate such low-capacity state-owned refineries, in comparison to ARAMCO of Saudi Arabia (as a classic example) that has continuously successfully operated, scaled, and sustained its large capacity 630,000 barrels per day refining capacity.  Indeed, other state-owned refineries in other countries are operating efficiently and profitably. Of course, Nigeria has the human and material capacity and competencies to successfully operate new, bigger, and better functional refineries, but corruption and the lack of political will have rendered almost all well-set-up, state-owned institutions and ventures either unproductive or unsuccessful.

     Around the year 2004, when President Obasanjo mandated an evaluation of the refineries, the experts’s Valuation and Opinion were that the assets (refineries) were qualified as “dead”, and that the refineries, as at that time (about 20 years ago), were no longer “going concerns”. We already know the story of how the administration of the then-President Olusegun Obasanjo approved the sale of the refineries. Companies like Dangote Group bid and won, amongst others. But that process was cancelled by President Umar Musa ‘Yar’Adua. 20 years down the line and with over 27 billion US Dollars down the drain, the refineries are worse off, and Nigeria is further short-changed.

     A call to action

    Based on the aforementioned facts and other justifications that I will highlight below, I believe that the right way to go for the NNPC under the new leadership of the Group Chief Executive Officer, Engineer Bashir Bayo Ojulari, and Engr. Ahmadu Musa Kida, as Chairman of the Board of Directors, is to recalibrate the NNPC strategy with new thinking, and focus. Certainly, for the team to effectively deliver the mandate given by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, with regard to the volume of crude oil output of 2.5 million barrels per day, etc., those refineries would be huge distractions for the NNPC with all the entanglements and encumbrances around them. For a long time, the NNPC refineries have been overdue for decommissioning, sale, or concession.

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     Therefore, I urge the new leadership of the NNPC, ers who I believe are practical and pragmatic leaders, to immediately, as a matter of priority, take a position and submit to Mr. President a proposal to sell off or concession all of the refineries to interested private companies and completely hands off the refineries which have become pipelines for slush funds for some vested interests.

     Some key justifications

    Economic and Finance perspective

    The refineries in their current state only impair the NNPC balance sheet, and therefore, they should no longer be considered as “critical national assets”, but rather “highly contentious liabilities”.

     Strategic Considerations

    Operational viability, product availability, supply chain reliability, and predictability are key determinants of decisions as well as commercial calculations. Hence, the incessant failures of the NNOC refineries should no longer be part of the NNPC’s current plans, operational framework, or strategic outlook. Going forward, I expect that the NNPC should be more focused on the upstream exploration and production strategies and exploits, and other key focus areas in line with the mandate of Mr. President, rather than for the NNPC to be burdened by the horror of what I call “the midstream deadweights” of failed refineries.

     Cost-benefit Analysis

    The emergence and success of the records-breaking and game-changing 650,000 barrels per day (BPD) Dangote Petroleum Refinery with the huge multi-refining capacity, and other upcoming refineries in Nigeria is a clearly demonstration that the NNPC refineries are no longer a productive part of Nigeria’s current midstream and downstream oil and gas value chain and they will certainly not be part of the future.

    More importantly, the fact that the 650,000 barrels per day (BPD) Dangote Petroleum Refinery was set up with about $20 billion is telling of the level of rot in the erstwhile NNPC, whereby over $28 billion have so far been sunk into our state-owned refineries with a combined refining capacity of 445,000 barrels per day (bpd) with obsolete and “dead” equipment over a period of 12 years with NO VALUE to show. This should be unacceptable.

     Way forward advice

    Consequently, it is no longer strategic, economically viable, morally correct, or even politically expedient for the NNPC to continue the “symbolism” of holding on to the ailing, unproductive, and wasteful NNPC refineries. In my opinion, this is especially so, given that most of the equipment has reached the “end of life” status, especially given the Billions of US Dollars that have been wasted/ stolen for decades under the pretext of “repairs” and “turnaround maintenance” by successive administrations. This vicious circle of corruption and evil should stop, just like the Fuel subsidy was stopped by President Tinubu. The “repairs” and “turnaround maintenance” are no longer defensible under any logical or responsible justification. Even the optics are offensive to Nigerians and deplorable to Nigeria’s partners and the international community.

      I urge President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to approve the sale/ concession of the ailing and “cancerous” refineries, with the gusto and decisiveness that Mr. President stopped the Fuel subsidy, which I supported. I believe that it will be one of the quick wins for the new NNPC leadership, and more importantly, it will be a critical success factor for the reform of the Oil and Gas sector under the leadership of President Tinubu, which will be in line with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act 2023. Let’s cut our losses as a nation and move on. Else, the administration of President Bola Tinubu will again be bedeviled with this vicious cycle of throwing money into a bottomless pit. The refineries have become sources of embarrassment for successive leaderships of the NNPC, and indeed, they have also become sources of graft, humongous loss of our national revenue and income. Indeed, the refineries in their current state have outlived their usefulness and are now clogs in the wheel of progress of the NNPC in particular and Nigeria in general.

     Another key reason why the cyclical grafts and rot continue to happen with regards to the management of our refineries is the fact that to date, nobody has been held properly to account for the mismanagement of the NNPC and indeed for continuously playing the game of deception with the NNPC refineries.

     Hence, there is the urgent need for decisive consequence management by President Tinubu with regards to what had been happening in the NNPC, to demonstrate clearly that gone are the days that the NNPC as Nigeria’s critical national income pipeline which key to our national existence and sustainability; will be allowed to be toyed with by anyone or any group of vested interests.

  • The seed of terror

    The seed of terror

    Preamble

    Yoruba language may have no plural or gender in its structural syntax.

    It may be poor in vocabulary and clumsy in grammar. But it is surely not lacking in proverbs and mythology. In that language, you can hardly express a sentence without enriching it with two or three proverbs. One of its famous proverbs has become an axiom in theory and practice. And many other languages have borrowed it for a token of experience. It goes thus: “A toddler who insists on preventing his mother from sleeping will surely not enjoy the serenity of the night rest”. This subtle axiom has its equivalence in English language. “A drastic problem requires a drastic solution”.

    Language is the root of all human cultures. It is the means of communicating thoughts, ideas and experiences. A people without language can be said to be without culture. Take a man out of his culture and he will immediately become like a fish out of water. His next action will be to rebel against the new but strange environment.

    That is the kind of situation that is cloaking the world in form of terrorism today.

    Language and Culture

    From time immemorial, language has been like a double edged sword. At a time it is used to attack. At another, it becomes an instrument of defence. Concord and conflict as well as love and hatred emanate from the use of language. Without language, there can be no marriage or divorce. Neither can there be business or even government. As a matter of fact, no tribe or nation can lay claim to civilisation in the absence of language.

    In Islam, language is everything human, including life and death. That is why a stammering prophet like Musa (Moses) would need an interpreter like Harun (Aaron) in his mission. Buddhists, Hindus, Judaists, Christians and Muslims, all proclaim Holy Books in one form or another, through their endowed languages. Not only must a prophet possess the power of language, he must also be eloquent in it. Prophet Muhammad (SAW) recognised the enormous power naturally embedded in language and warned the Muslims thus: ‘Tongue is like sword, if you fail to hold it, it may hold you”.

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    A person’s first language is called mother tongue while a standardised dialect within a tribal language is said to be ‘received’. If there is one aspect of culture that is not substitutable, it is language. The greatest havoc ever done to any group of people in history, especially through slave trade and colonialism, is language substitution. Nothing is more enslaving than substitution of language. Once language is renounced or substituted, nothing else is left of culture. The black citizens of the world, outside Africa, otherwise classified as Diaspora, are victims of this indelible psychological trauma.

    There are only four countries in the world today with English language as their mother tongue. These are Britain, the United States, Australia and Ireland. What would have been the fifth country is only partially English speaking. And that is Canada. All other countries that speak English as lingua franca only adopted it. Believing English to be the language of modern civilisation, the rest of the world have tacitly adopted it either as a lingua franca or as language of business. Yet the natural speakers of the language don’t seem to be satisfied with this development.

    Evil Axis

    With the role which America played in bringing an end to slavery in the 19th century, the world had expected the self-styled ‘God’s own

    Country’ to be the messiah of the modern age. But that expectation has turned forlorn. Rather than championing the course of peace and tranquility, America has replaced Germany as the greatest threat to humanity in the 21st century. And she has found an inseparable ally in Britain to form an ‘Evil Axis’ of untamable aggressors.

    Both English speaking countries had jointly piloted the modern world into a technological civilisation culminating in what is now known as global village. But they have used the same technology to turn themselves into ‘policemen of the world’.

    There is no part of the world today where a suffocating effect of their presence is not felt. Like a pair of scissors, both countries have jointly subjected many nations and races to untold terror and humiliation forcing countries to disintegrate and compelling friendly tribes to become foes all to further the course of their capitalist interest. Thus, they have planted the seed of terrorism in all corners of the world either in the name of capitalism or under the disguise of democracy.

    In the process of doing this, they have drawn the wrath of many nations, groups and individuals who now tend to react with venomous reprisal. If the militant liberators in Ireland or the patriotic defenders of motherland in Falkland are quiet today, it is not because they have been placated. The fact is that they have not got the power with which to demand for their rights. When they do, the situation may change.

    And, from Vietnam to Cambodia; from Panama to Korea, the feelings are the same. Even Germany and Japan which were de feated in World War II by the American-led Allied Forces in 1945, are still nursing their wounds. Isn’t it amazing that, 69 years after that devastating war, American and British forces are still stationed in those two countries under the cover of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). Claiming to be maintaining regional security, these aggressive allies continue to lay siege on those countries despite throat-cutting reparation they had forced them to pay. Today, the entire Middle East is engulfed in a ceaseless turmoil at the instance of the ‘Evil Axis’, and the whole world has become hopelessly restive.

    Propaganda

    Now, using their propaganda machinery to bully the rest of the world, the US and Britain have almost succeeded in branding any revengeful reaction to their brigandage as religious terrorism. What is the religious connection in Britain’s claim of the Falkland Island far away in Argentina?

    What is religious in America’s capturing of the ruling President Noriega of Panama in his country and taking him for trial in the US where he was jailed and had to languish in prison for years? What is religious in forcing monolingual countries like Korea and Cambodia to break into North and South? What is religious in invading Iraq even after it became evident that the poor country was not harbouring any deadly weapons as alleged? What actually qualifies the US, Britain and other Western countries to be nuclear powered and disqualifies others?

    Even if a country chooses to use religion as her guide in governance as in the case of Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia and Iran how does that affect Britain and the US thousands of miles away? Is Northern Ireland not a Christian country like Britain? Why the aggression against that country? And is Britain not using religion as an instrument of governance? Why does the Queen of England combine the two designations of Head of State and Head of the Church of England?

    If the truth must be told, the real problem of the world today is the greedy willingness of Britain and America to dominate the economy of other countries in a manner of brigandage. And that has led the duo to adopt military might as a means of cowing down some countries while subjecting others to terrorism.

    It is rather unfortunate that those who are bearing the brunt of the evil actions are innocent people going about their businesses legitimately. Otherwise, neither America nor Britain would have deserved any sympathy for the various terrorist attacks on certain targets in the two countries. Their plight would have been taken for merely reaping the fruits of their labour.

    Religion is being used as a scapegoat in the world today, not by Afghanistan or Ireland, but by Britain and the US because that is their most convenient alibi for unbridled aggression against weaker countries.

    Who wants to die?

    No one loves to die deliberately in Palestine or in Iraq or in Afghanistan or in Ireland. But when you are forced to live without essence, the tendency is to ask yourself the need to live at all. And, to answer such a question some people might desperately conclude that if they must not live, those who are forcing them to die must also not live.

     “Man is not innately wicked, but when an attempt is made to consign him to the scrap-heap he shows resentment in no uncertain terms”. Terrorism begets terrorism. But what is one nation’s terrorism is another nation’s heroism. And it is the innocent world that will pay the price of peace. Unfortunately, what Nigerians know how to imitate most is evil machinations of other countries. That terrorism has become a conundrum in Nigeria today is an evidence of this assertion. But one fact is very clear about terrorism. It is incontrovertibly a product of corruption and the latter is a bigger terrorism. Those who want to end terrorism therefore must first endeavour to end corruption.

    Allah warns against corruption and the acts of brigandage in chapter 8:25 of the Qur’an thus: “And guard against calamity that may afflict not only the wrong doers (but even the innocent ones among you). Know that Allah’s punishment can be very severe”.

    Solution

    How can we change this evil trend? This, perhaps, is the new reality which dawned on the British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, when he was about to exchange baton with his predecessor, Tony Blair, some years ago. In a chat with Labour Party members in Manchester shortly before he assumed office as Prime Minister, Brown said he recognised the fact that global extremism could never be defeated by military force alone.

    His words:

    “Our foreign policy in the years ahead will reflect the truth that to isolate and defeat terrorist extremism now involves more than military force….it (terrorism) is a struggle of ideas and ideals that in the coming years will be waged and won for the hearts and minds here at home and around the world”. Many well-meaning, foresighted Nigerians have drummed the same warning to the ears of Nigerian government. But a government that is wiser than its subjects will never heed such a warning.

    When he was making the above statement, Brown never thought that Britain would soon come under a new terrorist attack. But just a few days after that famous speech, Glasgow Airport became a target of terrorist attack. And that was on the very day he formally assumed office as Prime Minister. What became clearer especially with September 11, 2001 terrorist attack on the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon, was that no country is actually immune to terrorist attack.

    History has not cited a single example of terrorism which was conquered on the battle field. Thus, since no power on earth can claim to have monopoly of terror peace would better be achieved by sharing the wisdom of others through dialogue in ending terrorism.

    Reality

    That is the reality to which the West, especially Britain and the US, had deliberately been blind. If that reality now becomes the spectacle with which the West wants to view the world, then, peace may return to its rightful place as the reigning force of human universe. But then, the idea of manufacturing and supplying weapons to some people against others will have to stop permanently.

    The religious world was once peaceful until America renounced her policy of isolationism in 1945. It took that country to join Britain in using the Press to invent labelling names and acronyms to derogate certain religions (particularly Islam) and demoralise their adherents.

    The misfortune in this which the world is yet to realise is that every religion is built on the foundation of culture.

    Therefore, no religion can be attacked to the exclusion of its culture. And nothing in the life of man is called civilisation outside culture. That is why some people are ready to die when their religion comes under a violent attack from those who are ignorant of it.

    The Greeks, the Romans, the Assyrians and the Persians of the ancient world did not fight wars because of religion. Their motives were material but today they have all gone into irreversible oblivion.

    Those of today will eventually follow their way. Materialism is nothing but vanity which is invariably ephemeral. That is why Prophet Muhammad (SAW) or any of his disciples never crossed swords with Christians when they were alive.

    The very first international wars fought for religious reason which by necessity pitched Muslims against Christians were the Crusade Wars.

    And these were caused by sheer miscarriage of information. Yet, about one thousand years after those unwarranted wars, their scar still remains indelible in the world today.

    Violence on the basis of religion can terminate lives. It can destroy properties and ruin cities and towns as well as cause dislocations and relocations of people and settlements. But it can never win hearts nor change conviction. Truth is bitter and thus abhorrent to people of falsehood. But no matter how much it may be suppressed, Muslims are ready to join other oppressed people of the world in welcoming a new initiative from the West with a view to forging peace for all and sundry.

  • North West Commission a golden opportunity

    North West Commission a golden opportunity

    The NWDC Mandate within the Renewed Hope Agenda of President Tinubu

    It is interesting that the North West Development Commission (NWDC), has become active after successful legislation, enactment into law and the appointment of a leadership team that is driving the Commission. The Commission’s leadership has hit the ground running at a very important time in the political history of Nigeria. Certainly, this is an important milestone for the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. I commend Mr. President for balancing the regional intervention initiatives across all the six (6) geopolitical zones in Nigeria. Consequently, as we approach the midterm of President Tinubu’s administration, all eyes are on all the regional development commissions, to witness how they perform and make high tangible impacts in line with their mandates, build up to the 2027 general elections.

    Indeed, the NWDC is part of the strategy of President Bola Tinubu to ensure the delivery of not just of good governance, but deepening and widening the scope and the impacts of development and good governance in all the nooks and crannies of Nigeria. It therefore behooves on the Board of Directors, the Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, and other top executives of these development commission to succeed.

    I commend Mr. President for the consolidation of the regional development agencies or corporations under the Ministry of Regional Development, it is also a welcome development. Indeed. the regional development Commissions will be streamlined, more organized, efficient, and effective under the current federal executive structure.

    I am particular about the North West, because where there’s a lot of work cut out for the NWDC in terms of poverty alleviation, support for infrastructural development, in terms of the addressing the serious education deficit in the north, which is a fulcrum of the dwindling, the backwardness of the northwest in the scheme of things in northern Nigeria.

    It is important to note that out of the about 70% of the over 100million multidimensionally poor Nigerians (according to the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics), about 70% are in northern Nigeria, out of which about 50% of them are from the northwest. The vagaries of the insecurity which has pushed a significant number of our farmers from farms thereby impacting food security and other economic variables, natural disasters like flooding, the teeming unemployed youths, increasing number of out-of-school children including the almajris, increasing number of adults, adolescents and children beggars on the streets of the Northwest are all pointers to the dire need for developmental impacts of very important institutions like the North West Development Commission, and by extension, the North East Development, and the North Central Development Commissions.

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    In addition, the reason why I am reflecting on the NWDC in particular is because I am from Kano State in North West Nigeria. Plus, I believe that the North West, having delivered the highest number of votes to President Tinubu, and indeed to almost every Nigerian that had become a president in this country; the NWDC is a golden opportunity for the northern political leadership in this administration improve good governance impacts. They have no choice but deliver in the next two years.

    Setting the Agenda:

    What is the vision and what are the Strategic Objectives?

    The question is, what is the vision of the current board and the CEO of the NWDC? What is the strategic blueprint NWDC to ensure that they are front-facing, sure-footed, decisive, and speedy in delivering the mandate?

    In my humble opinion, we expect the NWDC to come up with a communication strategy that will key into the overall strategy which will ensure that in the next three months, six months, one year, etc.; the entire North West region and all Nigeria are able to see and feel the footprints and impacts of the NWDC across North West region.

    Moreover. I look forward to synergies between the Commission and all the state governors of North West. I am delighted that the executive governors of states in the North West, are fully cooperating and ready to support to this commission across party lines because actually the NDWC is about governance and it is also about the progress of Nigeria. It is also highly impressive that some well-meaning business leaders of Nigeria, from the North West, particularly Ahaji Abdulsamad Isyaku Rabiu, the Chairman, BUA Group of Companies, and Professor Adamu Abubakar Gwarzo, the President and Founder of the MAAUN Group of Universities, have demonstrated yet again high level of patriotism by donating an entire building blocks of buildings at different locations in Kano State, to the NWDC for their management and operations. I comment the two model indigenes of North West, and model citizens of Nigeria for the very laudable display of uncommon patriotism and love for there people. Certainly, Alhaji Abdusamad Isyaku Rabiu, and Professor Adamu Abubakar Gwarzo have set a good precedence for other leaders of the region to emulate, and I am confident that they. We have a lot of good men and women of sterling character in the North West as always.

    The truth is that this Commission is not about political party, ethnicity, tribe of religion, and should not be so or made to be so in any way. The NWDC and other regional development commissions are about developmental impacts on the people of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Accordingly, I advise the Commission to, as a matter of urgency, convene a strategy session to review their situation. Look at the vision, and what they intend to do with their resources allocated the NWDC and timelines for performance. I expect, that a strategy blueprint in ready or will be ready the next 1 month.

    One of the banes of our developments as a nation and as a polity, especially in most part of the past 25 years of this 4th Republic; is the lack of adequate and proper planning, and worse lack proper execution, measurement of performance, and demonstrable impacts. Many leaders fail o communicate properly to Nigerians, and more importantly for the people to feel the impacts. Impacts are dimensioned at different levels, and it is very important for the NWDC to demonstrate a sense of responsibility with a sensing strategy to deliver their mandate. With profound respect, may I remind the NWDC that, “to whom much is given, much is expected”. I am optimistic that the current leadership of the NWDC will succeed. We will continue to support to the NWDC to succeed, as I wish them good luck. I also hope and pray that this will be yet again another layer that will bring succor to the people of the North West in particular and people of Nigeria in general

    Critical Success Factors

    Here are some of my initial thoughts with regard to some key focus areas some of which actually align with the NWDC’s priorities:

    •I will use this opportunity to still reiterate the importance of governors to the success of the NWDC. They are the leaders of the region, and they have their core responsibilities as enshrined in the 1999 constitution. I urge them, as many Nigerians, to give the ultimate support, which I know they will, to the Northwest Development Commission across party lines.

    •Tackling the issue of rising out-of-school children and almadjiris, should be a high priority focus area for which; education, poverty alleviation, and youth empowerment are very critical success factor. On the issue of education, the focus I suggest in my view should be on primary school and secondary school education. Of course, I note clearly that it is a key responsibility or the primary responsibility of state governors.

    •A collaboration, with respect to the kind of specific interventions that will be clearly delineated from what the governors are doing is very key in trying to provide interventions for the states to ensure that the teeming uneducated children, and youths are educated, and gainfully employed, in terms of the core academics and more importantly, in technical education. and vocational skills. These is also another critical success factor the NWDC in collaboration with the state governments, for this to be part of the sates’ economic recovery and growth strategy.

    •Simultaneously, addressing the issues of unemployment and poverty alleviation, wholesome, recognizing that Northwest Nigeria is one of the major locations of the majority of the multidimensionally poor people of Nigeria.

    • Providing healthcare support system interventions is another a critical success factor; specially in the areas of infant maternal mortality, communicable diseases, waterborne diseases, etc.

    •Dealing with the issues the issue of agriculture which is directly related to the level of insecurity in Nigeria and therefore dealing with insecurity, is very crucial and it’s a key priority area for the northwest of Commission to collaborate with state governments to see how they can also support, you know, to deliver this issue.

    I will be closely watching developments in NWDC and I hope and pray that this will be the be one of the ways for a turnaround of the socioeconomic situation of our region which is a very critical stakeholder in the scheme of political and socioeconomic structure of schemes and dynamics of Nigeria.

    In a subsequent episode I will share more of my thoughts on the very important government initiative.

    Long live the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

  • The Nigeria First procurement policy

    The Nigeria First procurement policy

    Last week, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu mandated the “Renewed Hope Nigeria First” policy on all federal government procurements. I commend Mr. President for reactivating this policy vide an Executive Order, which will certainly add value to the economic reforms by President Tinubu. The policy will certainly catalyze the return of Nigeria’s manufacturing value chain, which is critical to our productive sector as the only way to economic prosperity.

     However, it is worth noting that the “Nigeria First” procurement policy was enacted by the previous administrations, but the policy implementation failed. It is therefore important that the government takes note of the pitfalls so as to ensure its success during this administration. The pitfalls include lack of political will, lack of a properly crafted strategy to ensure that the strategic objective is achieved. Another reason why is the previous attempts have failed is also due to lack of proper national development plan to ensure that the productive sector is reactivated having been comatose for decades, to be able to provide those required materials that will ensure that we buy only Nigerian products.

    Most of the time, policies must be ingrained within the polity before they can be successfully implemented and impactful. That is the crucial pillar that will ensure that the “Nigeria First” policy works. In 1933, the United States of America, under the leadership of President Franklin Roosevelt, implemented the “Buy American” policy. To ensure the success of the policy, there was a robust strategy to also ensure that local production was boosted to ensure that the policy was sustainable. Therefore, I expect the Bureau of Public Procurement (BPP) who has been mandated to look at the entire federal government procurement list and come up with a proper plan for restrictions to also ensure that we are working pari passu with enabling the critical infrastructure that will drive our productive sector and to also ensure that the federal government is looking policy side by side with Nigeria’s multilateral trade policy and agreements with our allies so that we don’t also shoot ourselves in the field around the risk of losing strategic advantage and other issues.

     Another key point to note is that part of the strategy to ensure the success of this policy is that we should just let the principles of the reality of demand and supply drive our internal supply standards. By the supply side, I mean “quality”. Over time, we all know that some of the key factors that determine demand availability, cost and quality. In the case of the “Nigeria First” policy, I am particular about cost and quality. Because cost and quality are also products of the economic vicious cycle of the cost of production. Inflation is driving the cost of almost everything higher as it is today. So how government is able to enable production, like I stated earlier, in a way and manner that it scales down the cost of products and services while ensuring that various agencies of government like the SON, NAFDAG, etc ensure that the quality and the standards are maintained, so that consumers will be happy to continue patronizing locally made products.

     We should also note that there are some products that may not be within the restriction bracket, but the fact that we have them locally made qualitatively and with good competitive pricing will naturally push consumers to the locally made ones rather than the foreign goods and services. Thus, it is very important that while this policy is implemented, the strategic pillars are put in place to ensure success and sustainability, i.e., ensure the productive sector is active, ensure the standards, and ensure that we scale down all the economic variables that are high. Of course, with President Trump’s global tariff war, the “Nigeria First” policy is also good because all countries are looking inwards to see how they can be creative to retain foreign exchange and to also guarantee that we boost exports in the long term.

     The strategic and economic objectives of the “Nigeria First” can only be achieved if we have a strategy for it. Otherwise, it will fail. What do I mean by that? In the short term, the big players in the local industry, like the Dangote Refinery, BUA, Cement, Innocent Motors, etc., will likely be the ones that will be able to make the impact. But suffice it to say that some of the industries are facing challenges of capacity, for example, Innoson Motors and others who still require some materials for them to keep up with the demand, because there’s high demand already. We should recall that even for the administration of President Tinubu, there was an attempt by the federal government and some state governments to procure vehicles from Innoson, but the order level was so high that Innoson could not keep up with the rate of orders. 

     Accordingly, increasing the capacity of the productive sector remains a critical success factor on the top line. Another critical success factor is the medium-scale and the small-scale industry in the productive sector, because those subsectors have a high impact in terms of production and supply of products and services. Furthermore, the agriculture value chain is also a critical success factor. For instance, there are about 30 million pupils and students who attend primary, secondary, and tertiary schools in Nigeria. At the beginning of every new session of classes, most of them make new uniforms. What makes uniform is the Cotton. Hence, we can note the intersectoral links across value chains in Nigeria. That is why we have a need for a strategy, not silo-driven policies that may be impactful and/ or sustainable, as we have seen over time due to the gaps across the value chains. Otherwise, the policy could fail within the next two years.

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     Available and sustainable electricity/ energy remains a pillar for the success of our economy, or any policy that supports it, for that matter. If the government does not address the power deficit in Nigeria, this policy and all other economic recovery and development strategies and policies will not succeed. Without available, scalable, and sustainable electricity, Nigeria will not make any progress as a nation. Therefore, due to the power deficit in Nigeria, the federal government should be creative in providing “bridges to compensate for any shortfall in the policy implementation, pending when Nigeria achieves optimal availability of electricity. For instance, within the framework of a bilateral/ multilateral framework/agreement with other countries, Nigeria will not take complete products, but 50% will be made within the country. Maybe Nigeria will import what are called “Completely Knocked-Down” (CKD) items. Then we assemble that items in Nigeria. That will reduce the cost of production.

     Moreover, it is very important that part of the policy are timelines to measure performance and impacts and conduct economic and social impact assessment to ensure that, the policy is working in terms of driving government expenditure down, in terms of adding value to the economy, and also in terms of building capacity, and when and if necessary, rejig the policy to ensure sustainability. That is the only way to succeed.

    Another very important point is the political will to sustain the policy. Because the rhetorical question has failed before. Let us recall that during President Jonathan or President Buhari, when they banned the importation of furniture, for example. Public officials were still importing furniture for official use. Senators and other public officeholders were still bypassing this policy. And if that continues to happen in this particular instance, then the objective will be defeated. As we have seen many times, it is political will that will ensure the success of such very important policies. Quintessential leadership from the top to ensure that not just the procurement of the items, but the process itself ensures that no public official, no matter how highly placed, could bypass or violate the policy. Unless you measure the impacts time to time, and I like the point when you talk about timeline, not just timeline of execution but timeline of measuring impacts and measuring performance is the only way that you will ensure sustainability along the lines of those crucial you know pillars of success otherwise in the next one year we are going into elections that will not be the focus and before you know it will also go the same way the previous executive orders went all right thank you gentlemen.