Category: Friday

  • A voice from Harvard

    A voice from Harvard

    On Monday, October 3, 2011, a voice echoed from the United States of America and reverberated throughout the intellectual spheres of many other countries across the continents. The voice was that of His Eminence, Alhaji Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar III  the Sultan of Sokoto   and President General of the Nigerian Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs (NSCIA). He was the guest lecturer at Harvard University where he delivered ‘The Samuel L. and Elizabeth Jodidi Annual Lecture at Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, on the invitation of the authorities of that University.

    The theme of the lecture was: “ISLAM AND PEACE BUILDING IN WEST AFRICA”.

    In the preamble to the lecture, His Eminence briefly took a look into the various indices of contemporary developments and analyzed the merits and demerits of such developments vis-a-vis human cultural values. He started as follows: …..“Today, more than ever before, we stand on the threshold of great opportunities.  Developments in various fields of human endeavor have made it easy to accumulate vast knowledge on peoples and cultures and to communicate this knowledge in ways never imagined before, with the real promise of bringing better understanding between us all.  Scientific breakthroughs have also made it possible to achieve human development at an unprecedented scale and to enhance the welfare and wellbeing of each and every one of us…

    But these opportunities also come with great dangers – and these dangers have already begun to manifest themselves in ways that leave us with much to worry about.  Bigotry and hatred are being elevated to a new pedestal and spread with relish and impunity.  Protracted conflicts, threats of war and the rise of extremism and militancy, from all sides of the socio-religious divide, have become the reality of our daily lives in many parts of the world.  Regrettably, a significant portion of the world’s population still wallow in abject poverty and neglect, thereby fuelling the vicious cycles of conflict, violence and instability that we are now all too familiar with.

    As a military officer and diplomatic representative, I have seen the devastation of war, not only in West Africa, but in Afghanistan, Iraq and other parts of the world.  I have witnessed the desperate cries of widows and orphans and the exasperation of bewildered families desperately struggling to pick up the shattered pieces of their lives.  As the Sultan of Sokoto and President-General of the Nigerian Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs; as well as the Co-Chair of the Nigerian Inter-Religious Council [NIREC], I have also seen the pain and suffering which ethnic polarization and religious misunderstanding could bring to a nation and its people; how ego and bigotry could conspire to deprive people of their rationality and good judgment and how religious leaders could set aside the teachings of their scriptures to lend a helping hand to these sectarian crises.

    But during all these, I have also seen how people of goodwill could make a world of difference; how the right word at the appropriate time could heal an old wound; how a little help to those in distress could rekindle hope in our common humanity and how people of virtue, courage and determination could set aside their fears and misgivings to work together to re-establish and strengthen the bases of mutual co-existence within their diverse communities. It is in the context of these challenges and opportunities that I wish to talk to you on the issues of peace and religious harmony tonight.  Since many people have talked and written about Religion and Conflict in our part of the world, it is only appropriate for me to address you on Islam and Peace-Building in West Africa, and particularly in my home country, Nigeria, with the real hope that in our individual and collective efforts, we can contribute our little quota towards the realization of the Jodidi vision of promoting “tolerance, understanding and goodwill among nations and the peace of the world…”

    Alluding to Sokoto Caliphate founded by Shaykh Uthman Dan Fodio in the early 19th century as a cultural and intellectual yardstick for measuring value in a meaningful society, His Eminence said: “The emergence of the Sokoto Caliphate in the early years of the nineteenth century, led by the erudite scholar, Shaykh Uthman Ibn Fodio, brought a drastic transformation of the Islamic scene in West Africa.  The Sokoto Caliphate was a political as well as an intellectual revolution.  Politically, it initiated an extensive process of state formation which spanned across several states in Western and Central Africa. Intellectually, the Caliphate also succeeded in putting scholars at the helm of public affairs. As true intellectuals, they had to argue their way through almost every major decision they took and had the time and foresight to record their thoughts, ideas and the justification of their actions for posterity. The Sokoto Triumvirate, namely Shaykh Uthman Ibn Fodio, Shaykh Abdullahi Ibn Fodio and Shaykh Muhammad Bello, authored over 300 books and pamphlets.  Other Caliphate leaders were also prolific writers.  Nana Asma’u alone wrote over 70 poems and tracts.

    But despite these impressive achievements, probably one of the Caliphate’s most enduring legacies had been in the area of values.  Classifying value into five categories and justifying each by quoting relevant authorities, His Eminence ascertained as follows:

    The first category of values raised by the Sokoto Caliphate leaders was that associated with knowledge as the basis for effective leadership.  Ignorance has no business with leadership and ignorant people shall have no business in governance.  In the emphatic words of Shaykh Uthman Ibn Fodio:     

    “A man without learning is like a country without inhabitants.  The finest [qualities] in a leader in particular and in people in general, are the love of learning, the desire to listen to it and holding the bearer of knowledge in great respect. If a leader is devoid of learning, he follows his whims and leads his subjects astray, like a riding beast with no halter, wandering off the path and perhaps spoiling what it passes over….“  [Bayan Wujub al-Hijra]

    The second category of values which I wish to bring to your attention is the primacy of Justice as the basis of good governance.  Shaykh Uthman Ibn Fodio, the leader of the Sokoto Caliphate, had always believed that “seeing to the welfare of the people is more effective than the use of force.”  According to Shaykh Uthman, “the crown of the leader is his integrity, his strong-hold is his impartiality and his wealth is [the prosperity] of his people.”  Shaykh Uthman Ibn Fodio was equally emphatic on how injustice compromises the integrity of governance and ultimately destroys the state. He said:

    “One of the swiftest ways of destroying a state is to give preference to one particular group over another or to show favor to one group of people rather than another and draw near those who should be kept away and keep away those who should be drawn near….  Other practices destructive to sovereignty are arrogance and conceit which take away virtues.  There are six qualities which cannot be tolerated in a leader:  lying, envy, breach of promise, sharpness of temper, miserliness and cowardice.  Another is the seclusion of the leader from his people, because when the oppressor is sure that the oppressed person will not have access to the ruler, he becomes more oppressive… A state can endure with unbelief but it cannot endure with injustice.” [Bayan Wujub al-Hijra]

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    The third category of values is that dealing with the fight against corruption especially in the management of public affairs.  Shaykh Abdullahi Ibn Fodio puts the Caliphate’s position in clear and unambiguous terms:

    “A ruler is forbidden to touch property acquired unjustly, such as through bribes obtained for appointing a judge or any other officer.  The use of such property is unanimously regarded as illegal.  It corrupts the Religion and opens the door wide to abuses and oppression of the poor.  For the officials may feel that since money was obtained from them as a reward for appointing them to office, they in turn must recover it from the common people….” [Diya’al-Hukkam]

    It is also the view of the Sokoto Caliphate leaders that those charged with authority must strive to shun corrupt practices and lead by example.  In the words of Sultan Muhammad Bello:

    “Leaders are like a spring of water and officials are like water-wheels.  If the spring is pure, the filth of the water-wheels cannot harm it.  If, on the other hand, the spring is polluted, the purity of the water-wheel will have little effect [on the purity of the water].”  [Usul al-Siyasa]

    The fourth category of values relates to the dignity of labor and indeed the responsibility of government to provide the enabling environment that would allow people to make a decent living.  In the words of Sultan Muhammad Bello:

    “……Guard yourself against poverty by lawful earning, because every poor man is afflicted by three defects:  religious weakness, feeble mindedness and loss of honor.  Worse than this is the contempt in which he is held by people. There are two assets which, as long as you safeguard them, you will remain alright:  Your earnings for your livelihood and your religion for your hereafter. The recommendable earning is better than supererogatory worship, the benefit of which is confined to the worshipper alone, whereas the benefit of the recommended earnings extends to others.” [Ahkam al-Makasib]

    The fifth and final category of values… is the uplifting of the status of women, especially through Education.  The Sokoto Caliphate leaders, as erudite scholars, lived by the percepts they preached and ensured that their wives and daughters and all others associated with them were educated to the highest standards the society could offer.  Many of these women, including Nana Asma’u, became leaders in their own right and played an active role in the political arena.  Equally and importantly, Shaykh Uthman Ibn Fodio’s pronouncements, made in the very early part of the nineteenth century, could not be more categorical:

    “One of the great calamities which have afflicted Hausaland is the practice of many of its scholars in abandoning their wives, daughters and servants in a state of ignorance.  They are left like animals without any effort to teach them.  This is a grave mistake and a prohibited innovation.  They treat them like utensils which they put to use, but when broken, get thrown into the dustbin.  What a strange behavior!  How could they leave their wives, daughters and servants in the darkness of ignorance and astray, while educating their students morning and evening.  This is just for their selfish interest and for show and ostentation….”

    The Sultan who had delivered similar lectures in Cambridge and Oxford before did not stop there. He went further to trace and analyze the challenges of insecurity as well as causes of violence and terrorism in Nigeria and suggested some solutions to those societal vices. These will be brought up in this column later in sha’a Llah.

  • President Trump’s inauguration and some initial global reactions

    President Trump’s inauguration and some initial global reactions

    President Donald Trump is fast settling in as the 47th President of the United States of America (Trump 2.0), after his inauguration into office 4 days ago, on the 20th of January, 2025. He has hit the ground running by starting to deliver his campaign promises, starting with a bold speech in which he re-affirmed his Make America Great Again (MAGA) agenda with sweeping statements on how he intends to use Tax and Tariff on foreign countries and foreign business to better the lot of Americans, etc. He undertook some saber rattling on geopolitics and global trade and Investment. Immediately after the inauguration speech, he went on to sign over 300 Executive Orders which included clamping down on immigration, pardoning the January 6 Capitol Hill insurrectionists, etc. 

    Accordingly, President Trump has ordered the immediate deployment of over 1,500 troops to the US-Mexican Border to block immigrants from entering the US, while a sweeping operation is underway to arrest and deport immigrants that are already within US soil. 

    Essentially, we are back to borders and tariffs. Globalization is now on the brink, as nationalization is becoming more prominent across the globe.

    Global stock markets and the world economic Forum Respond

    Global stock markets as well as the global trade and investment ecosystem are already reacting to President Trump’s inauguration and initial actions. President Trump, from day one secured $500billion US Dollars in Private commitment, amongst other multi-billion US for infrastructure development of AI and other technology initiatives; President Trump also made a Pitch for a 50/50 shareholding between TikTok and the US, he also gave a green light for Billionaire Elon Musk to be the American investor in TikTok, etc. Reactions have also been flowing from the annual World Economic Forum taking place in Davos Switzerland where world leaders have converged. What remains to be seen is President Trump’s action plan on how he intends to achieve his strategic objectives.

    As President Trump addressed the World Economic Forum yesterday, he reiterated his campaign promises, i.e. his anti-Immigration policy, US lowering interest rates, blasting the EU over tariffs taxes, and regulations, reaffirmation of the US opting out of the global climate change accord, etc.

     However, a very interesting development is that President Trump stated that his administration will slam more sanctions and tariffs on Russia if President Putin doesn’t stop the war against Ukraine. Although he didn’t provide specifics, this is a slight departure from his initial position on the Russia-Ukraine war before his inauguration. This is a noteworthy topic to watch considering President Trump’s position against the EU-NATO’s strategy on the Russia-Ukraine war. 

    Is Trumps Rhetoric, a real disruption or a deal tactic?

    It is important to note the change in President Trump’s mode of messaging on China, which in my view has changed from “aggressive” to “conciliatory”. For instance, he was the first to call President Xi of China and had discussions on how to move forward, and China also sent the highest-ranking Chinese official to Trump’s inauguration. This speaks volumes of the mutual understanding of the value each two largest economies of the world bring to the table, and the need to have more mutually beneficial trade relationships than the “take it all” approach on each side. The fact that their aggressive position of Trump on China could not be in the interest of his de facto right-hand man Elon Musk and other big American tech giants and businesses is an indication that it may not be a “Trade Armageddon”, after all. I also reckon that Trump may be playing the bluffing game to secure a good deal for America at the end of the day.

     Furthermore, at the core of President Trump’s national economic development strategy is to drive the US economy, by taxing sovereign nations and businesses and by applying Tariffs and sanctions. In my opinion, President Trump considers all the other countries around the world as subnationals of the United States of America. The $ 1 trillion question is “how” he will achieve that objective. President Trump wants to do a lot of audacious and disruptive things in terms of geopolitics, economy, investment and trade, technology, energy supply for Americans, re-energizing the manufacturing sector to compete with China and other manufacturing Countries, etc. But how he’s he will achieve those objectives, albeit some of them conflict with each other in this day and time of the 21st century, remains to be seen. Because even during the days of Genghis Khan, Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar, etc., those imperialists could not control the entire world. Indeed, at some point, they had the illusions that they were controlling the entire world with Wars, Taxes, Tariffs, Sanctions, etc. But one by one they could only achieve the much they could, albeit without longevity. The world is watching President Trump’s tariff strategy and preparing to counter the strategy. Countries like China, Canada, Mexico, and Panama, are already reacting and strategizing to counter President Trump’s strategy. The days ahead will be interesting.

    Oil and gas politics

    President Trump will pump more oil and gas into the global market, as the USA is the largest producer of Crude oil in the world. We are beginning to see the impact of Trump’s presidency on the global oil market, as with a decline 2 days ago (24 hours after his inauguration) as the price of Brent Crude went down to about $79 from where it was. The impact that the oil glut has on an oil-producing nation like Nigeria which relies on crude oil for about 90% of its revenue will be significant. 

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    If we may recall, during his first administration, President Trump applied his “drill-baby-drill” concept of ensuring the global glut of oil, which scaled down the prices of oil globally. And he will do the same during Trump 2.0, by trying to control the demand and supply side of oil, playing the oil and gas politics. 

    For Oil and Gas producing countries like Nigeria, this is a threat. Because this will affect them in terms of the revenues. Accordingly, Oil and Gas producing Countries will need to hedge against the impact of “drill-baby-drill”. Countries that are forward-thinking with their economic diversification strategies have hedged the potential outcome of our Trump policies because everybody knew that if Trump won, these are the potential steps he’s going to take.  For countries like Nigeria, I expect to see a review of our economic diversification strategy, even though the outcomes or impacts of the diversification may be in the mid to long term.

    Consequently, countries that have prepared will just adapt. In my view, those countries that didn’t prepare will have to go back to the drawing board. I expect Nigeria to do so, i.e. to review some of the budget parameters and targets so that they could be more realistic.

    Global supply chains and trade

    There are already warnings coming from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank about potential disruptions due to the economic policies of President Trump. There will be disruptions, definitely global disruptions, due to the influence of the U.S. in many things. So, there will be disruptions in trade, investment, and supply chain with the concomitant effect on global and national inflations.

     In the case of Nigeria, we need to be more sure-footed, purposeful, and result-oriented. For instance, in the case of Nigeria’s budget proposal for 2025. The benchmark for crude oil that we use to project our revenue will be impacted by Trump 2.0.

     Importantly, in my view, from the big picture perspective, unless President Trump adjusts as backlashes ensue (I notice that he has scaled down the tariff he intends to slam on China from 50% to 10%), the US will be the ultimate loser IN the end, the ultimate loser. For example; In the case of President Trump’s Migration policy, chasing the migrants out of America may likely ease cheap labor out of America, which will increase the wage bill in the US. I also wonder how President Trump intends to turn around the US manufacturing sector within 12 calendar months or two years while fighting US Allies like Canada, and the EU; and other Countries like China and Africa that are US trade partners in terms of crucial raw materials. 

    So essentially, in my opinion; excessive taxing and the increase of tariffs by the US, on foreign countries and foreign businesses will be countered by the productive sectors of the world, which is China, India, and other countries. We know that the U.S. is one of the biggest consumers of Chinese and Indian goods and services, where Apple Inc., Tesler, etc. products are produced in China. This is what I mean by stating earlier, that the US could be the ultimate loser.

    BRICS

    The increasing popularity and relevance of BRICS, whether it is from the point of view of economic positioning or geopolitics in terms of oil production, in terms of the wealth that these countries hold as it is today, and indeed to provide an alternative platform to the US dollar or the dominance of the G7. With the emergence of Donald Trump and his tariff narrative, it is clear that the BRICS Alliance will grow membership to adapt new the global reality.

  • To those attacking me for supporting Tax Reforms

    To those attacking me for supporting Tax Reforms

    “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil, is that good men do nothing” – Edmund Burke an Irish Statesman.

    Insults and threats to my life will not change my quest for a better Nigeria

    This is a response to the backlash I’ve been receiving, which includes threats to my life with regard to my position supporting the tax reform Bill various Nigeria’s political class, particularly the northern political establishment and citizens to have a change of mindset with regard to how northern Nigeria should rethink northern Nigeria and change our current retrogressive trajectory of development to a positive trajectory. Indeed, it goes without saying that we are the most backward region in Nigeria, despite having produced more Presidents than any other region in Nigeria. The truth is the truth, no matter how much we deny it! And the sooner we face reality, the earlier we start sincerely taking the right steps to reverse the ugly trend for the better. Ignoring the reality will be at our own collective peril! By the way to those blindly insulting me and threatening my life, I am deterred. By the way, I am not known to shy away from speaking truth to power if I even stand alone.

    And then Nigerian Governors Endorse the Tax Reform Bill

    It is interesting that yesterday Nigerian Governors under the auspices of the Nigerian Governors Forum (across political party lines), finally endorsed the Tax contentious Tax Reform Bill. This is a very good development, especially after the pushback by some Governors and politicians who were vehemently against the Bill, so much so that the Governor Nasarawa State, His Excellency, Engr. Abdullahi Sule; a gentleman, and technocrat that I have high regard for; during a television interview called some of us, who are proponents for Tax reform as people looking for a job.  I am sure that his excellency’s perspective that we are “looking for a job” has changed since he has now joined “us” – the proponents of the Tax Bill (the so-called “job seekers”); as he is now in favor of Bill. In the past week, there was a growing number of politicians who are now accepting the Bill; having aligned with what I had consistently requested that we all do, i.e.; read the Bill, Consult, Engage, Debate and Negotiate, with a view to having a robust, acceptable, actionable and productive Tax reform in the interest of all Nigerians. Indeed, in the end, we will be vindicated.

    I commend President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, for his political sagacity in managing the process and polity to achieve a positive outcome. This significant milestone of the acceptance of the Tax Bill (with some modifications) will set the tone for the acceptance of the Bill by Nigerians and the ultimate passage of the Bill for a better Nigeria.

    The tax reform will be an opportunity for northern Nigeria and indeed the entire States across Nigeria and the FCT to reposition for more competitiveness and derive more value from their contributions to the economy rather than “killing” the tax reform initiative. If so, the North would lose a golden opportunity.

    Food for Thought for our Northern Nigeria

    The backlash and verbal attack, including political leaders interestingly, requires that I respond to reiterate my position, and I will continue to speak to our people, even if it is a few of them as I have seen the massive responses from various well-meaning Nigerians and indeed Northern Nigerians, supporting the narrative that I have been passing, objectively seeing the reasoning, seeing the foresight and looking at the strategy I appreciate a lot of Northern Nigerians for speaking truth to power, with a view to having a better society, with a view to having a better country. My context of contestations, reflections, and contributions is mostly apolitical. Of course, man is a political animal. But if I want my region to grow, if I want Nigeria to prosper, then I would love northern Nigeria to grow. Because indeed, if northern Nigeria grows, then ultimately Nigeria will be better. I use this opportunity to say loud and clear, like I have said in other forms, that northern Nigeria is not the only region that requires reform, it requires a rethink for progressiveness and progression. As we have seen, some leaders of thoughts from other regions come together to rethink their region, to push a collective agenda for the progress of their region. Last week, Nigerians witnessed the emergence of the new President General of Ohaneze Ndigbo, Senator Azuta Mbata. This socio-cultural group has largely demonstrated cohesion (despite some dissenting positions), just like other regions enforced the agenda for the progress of their respective regions while not losing focus, you know, of the unity of our country. It is within that for over 30 years, I have been contributing my humble opinions, and trying to redirect our thinking and influence us to rethink our region for the betterment of our people, to rethink our region for the betterment of Nigeria, rethink leadership of Northern Nigeria with a view to adding more value so that we can also have a better strategic position, better than just political power in terms of population.

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    Northern Nigeria has a proliferation of interest groups that are here to be able to harmonize positions and move in one direction with one voice. I’m not saying that we should not have different interest groups with different thinking, but the earlier we start having a unity of purpose in our movements, the more likely we are able to have a mindset that will move us together in a unified, progressive direction. Otherwise, the mismatch of ideologies, visions, and misalignment of objectives will further polarize the North and further exacerbate the current spiraling of the North into the abyss of backwardness. From insecurity to increased infant maternal mortality, 70% of about 130% of the multidimensionally poor Nigerians are from the north, which translates to about 90 million or so, almost close to the total population of Sudan.

     Divergence of views and ideas is what makes societies more productive and successful. But only if those views and ideas are canvassed respectfully and constructively. Characterization of opposing ideas and views will not invalidate the substance of those views or ideas but could deny that society or nation some quality opportunities for growth and Development at the peril of the people and to the advantage of other societies or countries.

     The northern leaders must harness the wealth and potential of northern Nigeria and translate them into real core value or real social-economic value for Northern Nigeria and indeed for the entire country and even the Sahel. The history of Northern Nigeria is so rich and important that reducing the conversation the way we have been reducing it, discounting any valuable contribution and emphasizing the need for us to have these hard conversations, you know, leaves much to be desired, and speaks volumes with regards to how bad and how things are, you know, happening and becoming in northern Nigeria.

     The 1 billion US Dollar question for Northern Nigeria is, are we making any positive progress as a region? And if so, should we ask ourselves those questions as to why we are not making the right progress or moving in the right direction, to say the least, or should we continue living in self-deceit and pretend that all is well just because we don’t want some people don’t want to offend some people or we should allow some people to continue leading the north by the nose into the abyss of retrogression.

     The culture of weaponizing or demonizing constructive and progressive opinions by gaslighting the people by politicians, religious leaders, and traditional rulers is not only bad but antithetical to the progress of our societies and Country. The hallmark of critical thinking, especially in a diverse society is to engage a thought process of status quo a view to achieve a more desirable outcome.

     I have had cause to contribute to constructive criticism of some Policies of this administration and President Tinubu listened to us and either reversed or stood down those decisions in the interest of the policies. Some of the policies include the expatriate quota policy, etc. That should also be the attitude of Governors and political leaders, i.e to objectively listen and where necessary adjust strategies and policies in the overall interest of Nigerians, who are actually the mandate owners.

    Indeed, political leaders from other regions are also not different from northern political leaders. Having recognized that we have excellent, excellent political leaders who are governors and ministers but they indeed are in the minority and I will continue pushing you know the narration and the thought discussions you know along with other very eminent Nigerian patriots until we start listening. We must tell ourselves the truth, and that’s the bottom line.

    It is in the light of the foregoing that I have been speaking and it is in this light I’m still urging, with profound respect to our political leaders with profound respect to our leaders of thought, traditional religion, etc. to rethink Nigeria. God Bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria

  • Encounter with Richard Akinjide on Islam

    Encounter with Richard Akinjide on Islam

    Monologue

    It should not be strange to readers of ‘The Message’ that this column is coming up, today, with such a memorable title as presented here. A newspaper columnist, who is also a veteran Journalist, is like a human octopus that deals with issues and occurrences from n, with the readers of this column, is, essentially, one of the fundamental indices of the profession called journalism. It is also a major ingredient of the beauty of that profession.

    Chief Richard Osuolale Abimbola Akinjide, who died a decade and half years ago, was a Nigerian frontline lawyer and a politician of prominence. He was also one of the most ardent readers of ‘The Message’ column when alive.

    The encounter

    On a particular Saturday in 2010, the iconic political juggernaut and Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) called me by telephone and requested me to please see him at his Idi Isin residence, near NIHORT in Ibadan. On entering his living room, a ‘hill’ of newspaper cuttings sitting on one of the stools by his side, caught my attention. The sight of that ‘hill’ was a confirmation of the fact that the man was truly an ardent newspaper reader. After exchange of pleasantries with me and offer of drink, Chief Akinjide asked me to formally introduce myself to him, which I promptly did. He then decided to play the role of a journalist by interrogating me in a cross-examination manner with which lawyers are typically renowned in a law court. And, when he started quoting copiously from the various articles in my  column, and picking out copies of those articles from the ‘hill’ of newspaper cuttings by his side, It became clear to me that the ‘hill’ was deliberately placed on that stool in readiness for my coming.

    Impression

    By Chief Akinjide’s disposition in the course of our conversation, I noted a double edged impression which he created. One of those impressions was for me while the other was for him. On my side, I noticed a very sharp, juvenile brain with a uniquely active memory in him despite his octogenarian age.

    This man, who had become a Federal Minister when I was in the elementary school, so much dazed me with his analysis of my writings that I felt he would have been one of the best newspaper columnists in Nigerian history if he had chosen journalism as a profession. He vividly reminded me of the quality of Western education which his generation acquired during the colonial rule in Nigeria. In fact, Chief Richard Akinjide was Allah’s special gift to Nigeria even if Nigeria did not appreciate that gift as much as expected. One of the pungent questions he threw to me, which warranted the writing of this article, was about my educational background. He said: “which secondary school did you attend?” And, in answering that question, I simply told him that it was MARKAZ. He asked me to repeat the answer and I proudly told him once again that it was MARKAZ. And, from his inquisitively agitated visage, I could see that he never heard that name before. There and then, he asked me to tell him the language by which that name was coined, its meaning as well as the location of the school.

    It was during my explanation that he discovered that I could speak, write and comprehend Arabic language very well.

    Akinjide’s surprise

    I told him that MARKAZ was the name of an Arabic school (madrasah) established by the late Sheikh Adam Abdullah Al-Ilory, in Agege, Lagos State. And when I also told him that I was not privileged to attend a conventional secondary school because my father could not afford it, he was highly surprised. His next question was: “then, how did you come about the high standard English language with which you are writing your column?”. My explanation on how I learnt English language privately, after I left the Arabic school, sounded so much unbelievable to him that he confessed that he had thought that I attended either Oxford or Cambridge University in UK, for my degree course, perhaps after completing my secondary school education at King’s College, or St. Gregory’s College in Lagos. However, in response to that guess, I told him that I attended King’s University, Jeddah, for my degree and I read English. But he was still surprised that I obtained my first degree in English Language and Literature in the Arab World. He did not know that virtually all my lecturers at King’s University were Britons and Americans. There and then, he tactically left that angle and asked me to tell him something about Arabic language and its usefulness. But to my amazement, Chief Akinjide’s surprise became heightened when I told him that all science subjects that brought about technology and the modern civilization originated from Arabic language. For instance, I told him that such subjects like Chemistry (Kaymiyau), Physics (Fisiyau), Algebra (Aljibrau), mathematics (Ar-Riyadiyat) and several others in sciences were originally Arabic. I also told him that the very first University ever established in human history was University of Cordoba which was established by the Muslim Arabs of the second Umayyad dynasty in Spain, in the 9th century. I did not stop there. I added that it was the Muslim Arabs that invented figure zero (0) which paved way for digital system in mathematics made technology possible. That conversation lasted about three hours but from his body language, Chief Akinjide needed more information about Islam’s contribution to human civilization. He then told me that he would continue to invite me for further discussions on that subject whenever the need arose for it.

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    Another meeting

    About four weeks after that first encounter, Chief Akinjide called me again, by telephone, to his residence. I then thought of getting a witness to that intellectual conversation because of the future. I asked my brother, Dr. Wole Abbas (now a Professor and a former Head of the Department of Arabic and Islamic Studies, University of Ibadan, to accompany me to Chief Akinjide’s residence. I narrated to him what had transpired between us in our previous meeting. And, being an intellectual rendezvous, my brother was ready to be a witness.

    On reaching the place, the conversation began again. And for another period of over three hours, the conversation continued with the active participation of Professor Wole Abbas. At the end of that second conversation, the man asked a puzzling question thus: “where were people like you when we were rigmarolling in search of religious right path? Or don’t you know that I was born a Muslim and I was given the name Rasheed at birth? It was because I did not understand the meanings of the Arabic recitations to which I was subjected that I later decided to become a Christian”. “And, now, is it possible to combine? And, is it not too late to change? That last question clearly showed the confused situation of Chief Akinjide’s mind on religious matter. But the opportunity of another meeting with him, thereafter, did not come. From that conversation, I discovered that, unlike molst Nigerian politicians, Chief Akinjide was a serious-minded realist whose lifestyle was a template of emulation by today’s Nigerian politicians.

    Reminiscence

    The above related episode came to throw a challenge to Nigerian Muslim clerics over two conspicuous issues that jointly put a question mark on the practice of Islam in Nigeria today.  One is about the Qur’anic schools in Nigeria. The other is the Mosque affair. The two are closely interrelated.

    Informed Muslims will recall that Islam first reached some parts of what is now called Nigeria in the 11th century CE. That was over 1000 years ago when no one could have dreamt of a country to be called Nigeria. Even the colonialists who caused the emergence of Nigeria as a country were, at that time, still wallowing in total ignorance as they foraged wildly and aimlessly in the darkness of life. It took about 500 years after the arrival of Islam before Christianity came to Nigeria in the 16th century. Today, if the two religions are compared in terms of education and material progress in this country, one will be found obviously ahead of the other by far. As a matter of fact, it will seem as if Christianity preceded Islam in Nigeria by 500 years. There is a fundamental question here not yet asked let alone answered. Where did things begin to go wrong for the Muslims?

    It is only logical that a question like this is asked at this stage before any answer can be provided. From a Yoruba adage we learn that “when a kid suddenly slips and falls down he looks forward to someone who can lift him up. But when an adult slips and falls down, he looks backwards to see the cause of his fall”. After over 1000 years in Nigeria, Islam is eminently qualified to be called an adult. Thus we can jointly look back to see where things started going wrong for Islam to remain a crawling adult?

    If the past generations of Nigerian Muslims did not ask the above question, it wasn’t because they lacked intellect or foresight that could ginger them into asking such a question. Even if they asked a similar question, their political and economic hindrances would have posed as lack of wherewithal to answer it effectively. They could therefore be pardoned. The circumstances in which they embraced Islam and practiced it were quite different from those of today. That they even stood firmly by Islam in those days at all, despite the implacable persecutions they faced, was an impeccable testimony to their steadfastness in faith.

    The Difference

    Unlike Christianity which was escorted down to Nigeria by its European propagators and was strengthened by the colonialists after assuming power, Islam only migrated to Nigeria unaccompanied. That it emerged as a force to be reckoned with was only due to the grace of Allah. Nothing beyond education encouraged certain great scholars like Usman Dan Fodio and his brother, Abdullah Dan Fodio and Sultan Bello to rise up and embark on vigorous propagation of Islam which enabled that divine religion to retain its vitality till today. It should be remembered that both Usman Dan Fodio and his son (Muhammad Bello) made such complex linguistic, theological, scientific and legal studies that the one wrote 93 books while the other wrote 97 books.

    Clapperton’s Encounter with Sultan Bello

    It is on record that Hugh Clapperton, a British colonial agent, once had an interesting intellectual encounter with Sultan Muhammad Bello in 1824. After the historic intellectual encounter that took both of them through a compex web of knowledge display, Clapperton had to admit thus: “He (Muhammad Bello) continued to ask me several other theological questions, until I was obliged to confess myself not sufficiently versed in religious subtleties to resolve those knotty points”.

    And when Clapperton returned to Sokoto two years later (1826) and presented Sultan Bello with a complete copy of Arabic Euclid he (Clapperton) was shocked to learn that his host already possessed one. (Euclid is an ancient geometry book of 13 volumes named after its Greek originator).

    Literacy in Northern Nigeria

    When the Europeans first came to the territory now called Nigeria in the 16th century, the north was the only part that was literate. And, that was because Islam had reached that part of the country since the 11th century, with its Arabic literacy. The English colonialists confirmed this on their arrival in Nigeria for colonization in the 19th century. And that was why they were much more cautious in their dealings with the northerners than they were with the southerners.

    That the colonialists did not retain Arabic literacy in the north was due to the fact that they could not communicate in that sophisticated language. If they (the Europeans) had not ignored Arabic literacy, the north would not have been perceived as backward literarily today by the southerners. At least by 1919 when the South was just beginning to embrace literacy, in the Western way, the North already had about 25000 schools where students were taught various subjects through Arabic language. 

    Today, however, over 80% of Nigerian Christians are conveniently lettered either in English which is the official language of Christianity in this country or in their vernacular languages through the Roman alphabets.  That has enabled them to translate the Bible into about 21 Nigerian languages.

    But on the contrary, less than 5% of Nigerian Muslims can be said to be realistically familiar with Islam through literacy in Arabic. And, without adequate literacy in Arabic language, there can be no thorough understanding of Islam which is the total way of life for any serious Muslim.

    Today, despite the age of Islam in Nigeria and the population of the Muslims, the Qur’an has just been translated into about than five Nigerian languages. Even that was only possible because the two initiators of those translations (the late Sheikh Abubakar Mahmud Gumi and Sheikh Adam Abdullah Al-Ilory) were well educated in the language of the Qur’an. They were later emulated by some scholars from tribes other than  Hausa and Yoruba.

    Problems of Qura’anic Schools

    Many Nigerian Muslims who passed through the Qur’anic schools in Nigeria and care now claiming to have graduated (through celebration of Walimah) have ended up being serious embarrassments to Islam because of the shallow depth of knowledge they possess.

    The problem of Qur’anic schools in Nigeria is not just about faulty curriculum but also about anachronistic teaching methodology still being used.

    Arabic Language

    Language is the prima facie of any culture. A culture that is not entrenched in a language is only bidding its time of oblivion. Islam is a foremost culture with a foremost language. But with due apology, the attitude of some of Nigerian clerics who are teaching in Qur’anic schools has virtually changed the colour and the taste of Islam, as a culture, in Nigeria for the worse. Rather than being an attractive place of learning, most Qur’anic schools have been turned into scaring centres for our children. And, only a very few of those children are now willing to attend Qur’anic schools. The result is that no seriousness is attached to those schools in our society any longer.

    Qur’an is the encyclopedia of Islam. It is not meant for recitation alone. It is the final source of all researches in all fields of learning for those who know its value. Anybody who wants to claim authority in Islamic knowledge must, of necessity, be able to read, write and comprehend Arabic language very well.

    In Islam, Qur’an is the house in which the Muslims’ minds reside. The foundation of that house is Arabic language. Without understanding Arabic language, it is impossible to comprehend any literature written in Arabic, be it the Qur’an or Hadith. Only modernization of Arabic schools can change the situation of Al-majirai in Nigeria.

  • Ahmadu Bello’s Christmas Message

    Ahmadu Bello’s Christmas Message

    Monologue

    This is the month of December, the month of paradoxical trade fair in which lies, fabrications and falsehood are, invariably, the wares displayed for exhibition. This is the month in which ostentation displaces faith and deception replaces conscience. How and why did these become cases of concern especially in Nigeria? Please, read the related story of facts and fictions below.

    Preamble

    An axiomatic Yoruba adage came to mind, recently, when a so-called National Christian Elders’ Forum (NCEF) published a fabricated statement in the media and falsely credited it to the late Premier of Northern Nigeria, Sir Ahmadu Bello some years ago. The statement which was quoted verbatim from a false publication by some Biafra agitators of Igbo extraction, as a justification for their thoughtless secession bid. The adage goes thus:

    “Any slave who is desperate to forcefully usurp an estate bequeathed to an innocent orphan must fabricate a rootless history to justify his/her inordinate desperation to illegally usurp other people’s properties”. For people who can read between the lines, this adage needs no interpretation. It is self-explanatory.

    Record of History

    Here is a season in which recalling certain aspects of Nigerian history, if only to put the records straight, is a sine qua non.

    History is a living phenomenon that is common to all people around the world, in time and in space. No matter what interpretation or misinterpretation is given to it, in certain quarters, the fact remains that history is not anybody’s personal property and can, therefore, not be anybody’s enclave of monopoly.

    Memory lane

    Sir Ahmadu Bello, the first and only Premier of Northern Nigeria was not just one of the foremost political icons in Nigeria’s First Republic. He was also a patriarch of the ruling political party called Northern People’s Congress (NPC). This man of colossal status became the Premier of Northern Nigeria in 1954, the same year in which his political counterparts and arch-rivals, Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe and Chief Obafemi Awolowo, became Premiers of Eastern and Western regions respectively. The trio assumed office as Premiers, in 1954, through party-based elections. They were later joined by Chief Denis Osadebe as the fourth regional Premier in Nigeria. The latter became the Premier of Midwest region, in 1963, when that region was created. However, barely five years after Nigeria’s independence, Sir Ahmadu Bello was callously killed, as Premier, on Saturday, January 15, 1966, by some Nigerian military coup plotters whose real intent was to obliterate all traces of Islam in Nigeria. Virtually all those coup plotters were of Igbo extraction and no single one of them was a Muslim, an indication that the coup was religiously and tribally motivated.

    That devilish coup was led by one Major Patrick Chukwuma Kaduna Nzeogwu, an Igbo man from the present day geographical area of Nigeria, called Delta State.

    Those coup plotters had killed the Muslim leaders in government, including Premier Ahmadu Bello, Prime Minister Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, Premier Samuel Ladoke Akintola and several other political leaders from other tribal extractions, in that year’s sacred month of Ramadan, before they started looking for reasons to give as a justification for their heinous termination of those leaders’ lives. The three reasons that they (the coup plotters) gave after killing those leaders were corruption, tribalism and religious bigotry. It was a matter of calling a dog a bad name in order to hang it.

    Analysis of Their Reasons

    Among the four Premiers in Nigeria during the first republic, only Ahmadu Bello, was a Muslim and he could not, in any way, be evidently linked to corruption. Unlike the three other Premiers who lived opulently in expensive affluence, Ahmadu Bello was an ascetic personality who served his people diligently and patriotically without an iota of blemish. At the time of his gruesome murder, that Northern Premier had only a small residential bungalow in his home town of Rabah in Sokoto Province, which he built with a loan and nothing more has been traced to him as property till today. He had not even completed the payment of the loan he obtained for the building of that bungalow before he was murdered.

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    Who else among his peers can be said to have left such a flank behind?

    Sir Ahmadu Bello, the only Premier from the North, at that time, could also not be singularly accused of being tribally inclined because tribalism was the basis of all the existing political parties of the time. No Premier, in Nigeria, from 1954 to 1966 could be exonerated from tribalism directly or indirectly. They were all guilty of it.

    Genesis of tribal politics in Nigeria

    It can be recalled that certain tribal groups such as Ibiobio State Union (IBU), Ibo Federal Union (IFU) Egbe Omo Oduduwa (EOO) and ‘Jam’iyyar Al-Ummar Nigeriya ta Arewa’ translated as Northern Elements Progressive Association (NEPA) which later transformed into Northern Elements Progressive Union (NEPU) were all tribal socio-cultural organizations that metamorphosed into political parties. All those parties preceded ‘Jam’iyyar Mutane Arewa’ meaning Northern People’s Congress (NPC), to which Ahmadu Bello belonged. Many other ethnic-based political parties later emerged to broaden tribalism in Nigerian politics. If anything, therefore, Ahmadu Bello was the least tribally inclined Premier of his time. If he was actually a tribalist and religious bigot as he has always been maliciously painted in Nigeria’s political history, by the Southern Nigerian media, he would not have appointed Sunday Awoniyi, a Yoruba Christian, from the present day Kogi State, as his Private Secretary. Which other Premier appointed his private secretary from another tribe or from a religion other than Christianity? And, why did his killers link him alone to tribalism and bigotry?

    His 1959 Christmas message

    Among the four Premiers in Nigeria’s first republic, only Ahmadu Bello was bold and sincere enough to allay the fear of the minority groups in his (Northern) region by making a public policy statement about his government’s stand concerning tribalism and religious bigotry. Here is an excerpt from what he said while sending a Christmas message to northern Christians at the time of Christmas in 1959:

    “…We are people of many different races, tribes and religions, who are knit together by common history, common interests and common ideals. Our diversity may be great but the things that unite us are stronger than the things that divide us. On an occasion like this, I always remind people about our firmly rooted policy on religious tolerance. Families of all creeds and colours can rely on these assurances. We have no intention of favouring one religion at the expense of another. Subject to overriding need to preserve law and order, it is our determination that everyone should have absolute liberty to practice his belief. It is befitting on this momentous day, on behalf of my ministers and myself, to send a special word of gratitude to all Christian missions”.

    “Let me conclude this with a personal message. I extend my greetings to all our people who are Christians on this great feast day. Let us forget the difference in our religion and remember the common brotherhood before God, by dedicating ourselves afresh to the great tasks which lie before us….”

    That was the Christmas message that Sir Ahmadu Bello delivered in a radio broadcast on Thursday, December 24, 1959. And, it remained intact in Nigerian historical archive until 2002, when a Yoruba agent of the Lucifer came up with a fabricated statement that is now being devilishly quoted and circulated spirally by mischievous elements in Nigeria, who have been crediting it to Sir Ahmadu Bello.

     The Fabricated version

    Decades after Sir Ahmadu Bello’s unjustifiable assassination, some evil elements in the media, in active conspiracy with certain political demagogues, who were passionately pregnant with morbid hatred for Islam, went to fabricate another ‘Christmas Message’ and credited it to the late Northern Premier as a justification for his murder. The concocted statement was purportedly culled from a non-existing newspaper called ‘The Parrot’. Below is the fabricated Christmas Message:

    “…The new nation called Nigeria should be an estate of our great grandfather Othman Dan Fodio. We must ruthlessly prevent a change of power.

     We use the minorities in the north as willing tools and the south as a conquered territory and never allow them to rule over us and never allow them to have control over their future….”

    Now, should that senselessly fabricated statement said to have been made by Sir Ahmadu Bello on October 12, 1960, be quoted blindly by any sensible individual or group? How can a Christmas message by a Premier of Ahmadu Bello Status, be delivered in October, two months before Christmas? Haba! Is that not a confirmation that liars never think of the implications of their lies before they fabricate them?

    Truth and Falsehood

    “Truth has come and falsehood has vamoosed; surely, falsehood is meant to vamoose in the presence of the truth”.  Q. 17: 81 

    Comparison

    Now, looking at both (genuine and fabricated) statements quoted above very carefully, shouldn’t any sensible person be able to distinguish between truth and falsehood? The Premier’s original Christmas message, earlier quoted above, was made on the eve of Christmas on Thursday, December 24, 1959, through a radio broadcast and it was published by all newspapers in the country including the vociferous ‘West African Pilot’ owned by Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, the boisterous ‘Tribune’ owned by Chief Obafemi Awolowo and the clamorous ‘Daily Times’ jointly owned privately by certain prominent Nigerian individuals at that time. That original statement was equally published by many other smaller newspapers in Nigeria. All those newspapers are identifiable in Nigeria’s media history even though most of them are now defunct.

    On the other hand, the place and occasion of the fabricated statement credited to Sir Ahmadu Bello was not indicated and cannot be traced in any Nigeria’s newspaper history.

    Evidence of Fabrication

    The first time any genuinely existing newspaper ever made reference to that fabricated statement was on November 13, 2002 (42 years after it was purportedly made by Sir Ahmadu Bello. And, ‘The Tribune’ newspaper which published it on that date only claimed to have culled it from an online column published on October 24 2002 by a fraudulent Yoruba Journalist (name withheld) who entitled it ‘The Northern Agenda’. The referred online was actually named ‘Nairaland’, and it can still be found on the internet today, if googled.

    It can, therefore, be confirmed that the statement was actually fabricated, not in the 1960s but in October 2002, by the so-called online columnist who credited it to a newspaper that never existed. The objective was to give it an undeserved credibility. What a country! What a people! What a shame! This is a typical case of an obvious mischief by heartless mischief makers just to fetch ephemeral fame and illegal income.

    The belief of such fraudsters was that once such a fabricated article appears on the internet and is ignorantly quoted by some inconsequential mercenary writers, it would automatically become a document of fact. And, true to that assertion, a self-acclaimed Nigerian Christian Elders Forum’ (NCEF) has shamelessly quoted that fabricated falsehood, as usual, to justify its baseless allegation of ‘Islamization’ of Nigeria. That is Nigeria for you.

    The 1966 Coup Episode

    January 15, 1966 was a Saturday like no other one in the history of Nigeria. It was on that day that the bitter political seed which germinated and grew into the thorny political tree that is now feeding Nigerians with bitter political fruits, was planted. The evil planting of that seed marked the beginning of an agonizing voyage of destiny on which Nigerians embarked without a compass. Coming up in the sacred month of Ramadan, the day, (January 15, 1966) actually came to confirm the axiomatic thought of an Arab poet who once asserted in a couplet thus: “Nights are heavily pregnant; they give birth to wonders in the days….”

    The Major Casualties

    The real target of the heartless coup plotters in  military uniform, who struck on January 15, 1966 coup was Islam. Although they (the coupists) killed virtually all the major key players in the then Nigerian politics except those of Igbo extraction, most of the victims of that coup were Muslims and some non-Igbo Christians who were then in prisons. The Prime Minister, Alhaji Sir AbubakarTafawa Balewa and the Minister of Finance, Chief Festus Okotie-Eboh were killed in Lagos. The Premier of Northern Nigeria, Sir Ahmadu Bello, was killed with his wife and some other people in Kaduna, the then Headquarters of Northern Nigeria. The Premier of Western Region, Chief Samuel Ladoke Akintola, was killed in Ibadan, the then Headquarters of the South Western Region, while some military top brass of non-Igbo extraction were killed in different military barracks across the country.

    Except for Lt. Col. Arthur Unegbe who was killed for being too close to one Brigadier-General Zakariya’ Maimalari, a top Muslim military officer from the north, and could not be trusted, no other Igbo man of note, civilian or military, was killed in that coup. As a matter of fact, if there was any feeling of the coup in Nigeria’s Eastern Region at all, it was that of victory and heroism. The top military officers who were killed in the senseless coup included: Brig. S. A. Ademulegun (South West); Brig. Zakari Maimalari (North East); Col. Kur Mohammed (North West); Lt. Col. J. Y. Pam (North Central); Col. S. A. Shodeinde (South West); Lt. Col. Largema (North Central); Lt. Col. A. G. Unegbe (South East); S/Lt. James Odu (Mid West) and a host of others.

    The False Allegations

    After the dust had settled, it became evident that virtually all the planners of that coup as well as its executors were soldiers of Igbo extraction and Christians. Thus, other Nigerians whose relatives were severely affected saw the coup not only as tribal but also as religious, the killing of some Christians like Chiefs Akintola and Okotie-Eboh notwithstanding. This was because the then Governor of Eastern Nigeria, Sir Francis Akanu Ibiam was as deeply involved in religious matters as Sir Ahmadu Bello. The one was a Vice-President of the World Council of Churches. The other was the Vice-President of the Muslim World League. If religion was therefore the reason for the coup, the two of them not one ought to have been killed for bigotry. But history entails a variety of interpretations especially in a society where conscience hardly plays any meaningful role.

    Beneficiaries

    It is historically notable that the chief beneficiary of the coup (Major-General Johnson Aguiyi Ironsi) was also of Igbo extraction. Almost all the military appointments after the coup were for men of Igbo extraction. Among those appointees, only Hassan Katsina and Muhammadu Shuwa were Muslims. How else could a coup be tribal and religious? After all, as far back as 1953, a frontline Igbo politician (name withheld) had set such agenda for his tribe’s men when he reportedly said that “Ibos’ domination of Nigeria is a matter of time”.  That statement was allegedly made at a cocktail party in Lagos. If this remains the yardstick for driving democracy in Nigeria, for how long can such democracy last?

  • Some key global determinants in 2025

    Some key global determinants in 2025

    GEO-Politics

    Trump 2.0

    In 2025; global and sub-regional peace and economics will continue to be impacted by geo-politics. Global geopolitics is significantly influenced by the strategic foreign policy direction of the United States of America (US), and it will continue to be so, under the leadership of the incoming President Donald Trump.

     President Donald Trump will be sworn in for his second term in office in the next 10 days to usher in the “Trump 2.0” era. The world is already witnessing the body language of President-Elect Trump, ramped up by his rhetoric and those of his allies within the United States of America and across the world. Billionaire Elon Musk, who Trump has assigned a role in his administration; is taking the lead in stirring up the hornet’s nest with provocative rhetoric, which are indicators of what will likely happen during the second tenure of President Trump. In the last couple of days, preparatory to his inaugural, he is posturing, and giving indications of his potential foreign policy strategic direction, which is more or less a furtherance of his position during his first tenure. He has consolidated the Make America Great Again (MAGA) mantra, by stepping up rhetoric against Canada, Panama, Greenland, etc., including the European Union with some verbal attacks on the UK Prime Minister, etc.

    Russia-Ukraine imbroglio

    In the case of Russia, President Vladimir Putin is not likely to shift ground but rather refine his mid to long-term strategy, especially with the emergence of President Trump as the 48thth President of the US, with whom he has had a better relationship than President Joe Biden. This is more so because, in my view, so far, President Putin’s strategy has been working more for him than the US and EU/NATO strategy for Ukraine. If the Russia-Ukraine imbroglio continues unabated without a change in the political strategy disposition, it will continue to impact negatively on global and national economies.

     During Trump 2.0, we also expect to see this year, a highly likely turnaround of events in the Russia-Ukrainian war, because of Donald Trump’s position on the Russia-Ukraine war, which is completely opposite that of President Joe Biden and his administration. President-Elect Trump did not hide the fact that he would like to bring to an end or force the hands of the players to see to an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war as against the push by President Joe Biden, the European Union and NATO who would rather continue supporting Ukraine, to continue  “fighting to a finish” against Russia, which in the opinions of many, including my humble self, will be costlier for Ukraine and Russia and indeed the global economy.

    Israel-Palestine conflict – The war in Gaza

    With regard to the Israeli-Palestinian war in Gaza, I don’t expect much to change, because the successive US Presidencies and administrations have maintained a fairly consistent strategic position and actions with regard to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Therefore, in my view, in 2025 during Trump 2.0, I would not expect anything different. It will just be a scenario of the same actors in different costumes. I don’t expect the fortunes of the Palestinians to significantly change with regard to the US position to support or reduce support for the Israelis. In fact, in the last couple of days, President Trump has been very clear and unambiguous in saying he is going to be very brutal in fighting Hamas to the finish and be more assertive and decisive, which in his opinion will bring an end to the crisis. Whether that will be the solution or not will remain to be seen. But indeed, the position of the United States of America in this regard will not really change the fortunes of the Palestinians.

     Trump 2.0: What is in it for Africa?

    In my view, when it comes to Africa, whoever becomes the President of the United States of America, the US agenda for Africa will pretty much remain the same- nothing much of substance for us. The US and the Western powers will continue to feather their nests at the expense of Africa and Africa. Therefore, from the global geopolitical point of view, I do not expect significant positive changes.

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     Of course, it also speaks volumes with regard to the fact that “Africa is on its own”. We, the people of Africa in general and Nigeria in particular need to do the needful to come out of our political, and socio-economic doldrums. That being said, when the dynamics are escalated with global socio-economic impacts, for example, what is happening in Sudan, where the US and Russia are majorly unseen hands; then we should take note with regard to the political dynamism of the emergence of the next President of the United States of America, so that we can strategize, plan, hedge and position for better survival, growth and sustainable development.

    Sub-regional political impasse and rising insecurity in Africa

    The sub-regional political impasses and insecurity in Africa, particularly in the Sahel region, and Sudan. Indeed, the relationship between Trump, Putin, and the United Arab Emirates could likely play a role for Sudan, if the ruling Military regime is able to offer a deal to Donald Trump in trying to see how peace will come to the region.

    The European Union (EU) and NATO versus Trump

    The EU’s position as they engage President Trump with the threat of his “Tariff” strategy as his greatest political power leverage, will be another key determinant.

     With President-Elect Trump’s rhetoric regarding Greenland and his position regarding the Ukraine-Russia war; the EU and NATO need to recraft their strategy to counter President Trump’s strategy, in order to maintain a balance of political and socio-economic power around Europe. President Trump will have more allies in the European Union than he had during his first tenure; especially with the rise of popularity and rise to power of the far-right political parties, and movements across Europe; in Italy, Germany, France, the UK, etc. These far-right political leaders of some European countries, either as incumbents or as oppositions, will be key levers of power for Donald Trump to assert himself as a global game changer. How the EU is able to reposition itself or prepare itself for that will be interesting to watch

    Global economic trajectory

    According to the OECD’s (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) latest Economic outlook:

    •Global growth will remain resilient in 2025 despite significant risks due to; geopolitical tensions, high public debt ratios, etc.

    •The Outlook projects global GDP growth of 3.3% in 2025, up from 3.2% in 2024, and 3.3% in 2026.

    •Inflation in the OECD is expected to ease further, from 5.4% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, supported by the still restrictive stance of monetary policy in most countries.

    •Headline inflation has already returned to central bank targets in nearly half of the advanced economies and close to 60% of emerging market economies

    •Growth prospects vary significantly across regions.

    BRICS

    The BRICS strategy is working, even though Donald Trump has been threatening sanctions for any Country that remains in BRICS. With 14 Countries joining the BRICS in the last 3 months with Indonesia being the latest to join some days ago, indicates the rising popularity of BRICS and its potential influence in the global geopolitics and economy. I reckon that BRICS will re-strategize to counter the potential counter-maneuver of Trump, which is critically driven by tariffs and sanctions.

    China

    According to China Observers in Central and Eastern Europe (CHOICE);

    In 2024, China experienced another year of economic slowdown, with the GDP growth rate declining to 4.8 percent year-on-year in the first three quarters, down from 5.2 percent in 2023.

    China’s GDP growth rate will slow down further to 4.5 percent in 2025, with domestic demand playing a critical role in offsetting the slowdown in exports.

    A key point for China is Trump 2.0, which is based on incoming US President Trump’s consistent Trade War against China which he has ramped up, which could escalate power competition between China and the US. Trump is already calling for decoupling from China, which would not only have major negative consequences for China but also for the rest of the world. Trump will certainly leverage his Tariff Trade War strategy to counter China’s strategy to bypass US tariffs.

    Climate Change

    With the escalation of global warming in 2024 and the devastating humanitarian and socio-economic consequences on various countries and continents, the global climate change initiative will have to be consolidated, especially with the almost fallout and outcome of the COP29 which took place 2 months ago in Baku, Azerbaijan. Developing nations were not really dealt a good deal. To add more gloom to the fight against climate change is the emergence of Trump 2.0 because Trump is not favorably committed to the fight against climate change. The world has to move on without Trump in this regard and progress will depend on how the achievements made so far will be consolidated and progressed in the overall interest of the global stakeholders.

    Artificial Intelligence (AI)

    The rapid rate at which Artificial intelligence (AI) is growing and its impact across ecosystems and value chains is so fast that Countries and organizations that do not take the advent of AI seriously will not only be left behind in development but will suffer the devastating consequences of its threats and risks.

  • Critical succuess factors for 2025 budget

    Critical succuess factors for 2025 budget

    On Wednesday, 18th December 2024, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu presented the 2025 Budget proposal in the sum of about N49.7 trillion to the National Assembly for consideration as the proposed 2025 Budget. The Budget which is the second budget of President Tinubu’s administration is a remarkable increase from the 2024 budget of N27.5 trillion. The President calls the 2025 budget, “The 2025 Budget of Restoration: Securing Peace, Rebuilding Prosperity”. Defense and Security, Infrastructure, Health, and Education Sectors have the highest budget allocations, highlighting the strategic priorities of the administration in 2025. as follows: Defense and Security: N4.91 trillion; Infrastructure: N4.06 trillion; Health: N2.48 trillion; Education: N3.52 trillion. Other key focus areas include; Investments in energy, transport, and public works, Human Capital Development, and Agriculture.

    2024 Budget Performance; According to Mr. President:

    •N14.55trn in revenue, meeting 75% of the target as of the third quarter, of 2024.

    •N21.60trn in expenditure, representing 85% in the third quarter, of 2024.

    •75% increase in revenue to the sum of N14.55 trillion

    •85% increase in expenditure representing 85% of its target.

    2025 Budget Assumptions:

    The proposed budget is based on the following Assumptions:

    •Base crude oil production assumption of 2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd).

    •Targeting N34.82trn in revenue to fund the budget.

    •Inflation will decline from the current rate of 34.6% to 15%

    •Exchange rate will improve from approximately N1,700/US$ to N1,500/US$

    •Reduced importation of petroleum products alongside increased export of finished petroleum products.

    •The Federal Government’s expenditure includes N15.81 trillion for debt servicing and a total of N13.08 trillion naira, or 3.89 percent of GDP.

    •Bumper harvests, driven by enhanced security, reducing reliance on food imports.

    •Increased foreign exchange inflows through Foreign Portfolio Investments.

    •Higher crude oil output and exports, coupled with a substantial reduction in upstream oil and gas production costs.

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    •Government expenditure in the same year is projected to be N47.90trn including N15.81trn for debt servicing.

    •A total of N13.08trn or 3.89% of GDP, will make up the budget deficit.

    The basis for Assumptions:

    The Federal Government is basing those projections on the following observations:

    •Projected reduced importation of petroleum products alongside increased export of finished petroleum products.

    •Projected Bumper harvests that will be driven by enhanced security, reducing reliance on food imports.

    •Increased foreign exchange inflows through Foreign Portfolio Investments.

    •Higher crude oil output and exports, coupled with a substantial reduction in upstream oil and gas production costs.

     Critical Success Factors

    The Essence of the “Promise-Based Leadership” principle

    While the above assumptions and targets are highly ambitious; in my view, the high target setting will push the government to deliver the promises made to Nigerians.

     As a proponent of the “Promise-Based Leadership” principle, I urge President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to ensure that some key tangible micro-economic and social impacts are achieved by the end of the first quarter of this year, in order to sustain the confidence and hope of Nigerians as they continue to brave the brutal socio-economic situations such as increasing cost of living, insecurity, corruption, unemployment, etc. Indeed Mr. President has restated his commitment to turning around the economy, as Nigerians continue to demonstrate uncommon resilience. But time is of the essence.

    Fiscal Discipline

    In addition to what I call, “Mr. President’s boldness of assertions”, I advocate for the inculcation of what I term, “the practicality of discipline, and the political will of execution”. By this, I mean that there should be an immediate alignment between Fiscal Policy and Fiscal Discipline. Budget performance is dependent largely on Fiscal discipline, without which; increased revenue, increased foreign direct investment, and investment in critical infrastructure will amount to nothing. Without Fiscal Discipline, the strategic visions of government, and action plans will either fail or will not be sustainable. Therefore, it is important that we continue remaining focused on prudence, containing wastages, blocking leakages eliminating procurement malpractices, and fighting corruption amongst other forms of Fiscal Discipline to ensure success

     Total stoppage of budget padding between the Executive arm and the legislative arms of government at federal and sub-national levels is another form of Fiscal indiscipline. For example, according to the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC); in the 2021 budget, a budget padding of about N300 Billion was inserted in the Budget, while a budget padding of about 100 Billion was inserted in the 2022 budget by MDAs. Budget Padding must be contained or eliminated, if we are serious as a nation.

    Policy Consultation and Policy Coherence

    In order to consolidate the gains achieved in the 2024 budget and upscale that performance in 2025 so that Nigerians could feel the desired impacts; it is crucial for the government to pay attention to Policy Consultation, Policy Coordination, and Policy Coherence. They are key to achieving the set objectives in 2025 and beyond. To achieve policy coherence it is important to ensure that all existing policies and the policies that will be activated this year are not in conflict with each other, inconsistent, or counter-productive. As we have seen in some cases last year; where Mr. President had to backtrack on some policy decisions; such occurrences are avoidable if there is policy coherence. Policy inconsistencies are major weaknesses to governments, and threats to operating environments (public or private) with the attendant costly strategic, and socio-economic consequences.

     Going forward, there should be more interagency collaborations and policy consultations to ensure that government policies will not clash with other subsisting policies and to also ensure that new policies that will be approved, will not be counterproductive to/ or clash with existing policies – which in most cases further exacerbate the socioeconomic situation of Nigeria and Nigerians. It is therefore important for Ministers and Heads of Departments and Agencies (MDAs) to compare notes through policy consultation and coordination. We must also ensure that government policies either complement each other or add value to the entire policy framework or the overarching strategy of the administration of President Bola Tinubu. That is the only way to ensure sustainable success.

    Impact Assessments and Communication Strategy

    It is also worthy of note that public opinion is very important in a democracy. Therefore, as part of the communication strategy of this administration; in 2025, there should be consistent objective reviews of the impacts of policies, actions/inactions, and other decisions of government on the citizenry, the operating environments, and business climates.

     The feedback from the citizenry and public opinions regarding decisions of government or proposals of government are very important in gauging the impact of policies and governance and guiding the delivery of the mandate given to Mr. President by Nigerians. This is important, not just in the Executive Arm of government, but also in the Legislature and Judiciary. Hence, in 2025, I urge Nigerians to also dedicate time to continue holding political leaders at Federal, State, and Local Government levels accountable to ensure that they continue to deliver good governance.

    National Security

    Talking about insecurity is critical to ensuring territorial integrity and overcoming the socio-economic malaise in Nigeria. This is because the insecurity around the North-Western, North-Central, and also South-Eastern parts of Nigeria is hampering security, the well-being of citizens, food production, execution of major infrastructure projects, and the free movement of people, goods, and services. Insecurity has significantly impacted food security. The northern part of Nigeria is the food basket of the nation. There is a need for quick and sustainable solutions to insecurity. Unless the government tackles insecurity, we are taking two steps forward and three steps backward.

    Safeguarding Revenue Pipelines:

    I also hope that more drastic measures would be taken against anybody, group of people, or entities and their collaborators in government, who are involved in crude oil theft and crude oil pipeline vandalization, they should be treated and prosecuted as economic saboteurs without fear or favor.

    Ensuring the availability of Power to drive the Economy

    The issue of electricity production, transmission, and distribution, should be a matter of national priority for the administration of President Bola Ahmad Tinubu. We hope to see sustained efforts with clear, and tangible impacts in the short to mid-term Power is crucial to catalyze and reinvigorate the productive sector of Nigeria’s economy, and to support the provision of critical infrastructure going forward. Therefore, unless the issue of the availability of electricity is addressed, I dare say that President Tinubu will not achieve his objectives and Nigerians will continue to suffer.

    Efficient and Effective War Against Corruption:

    A sincere, objective, result-oriented, and transparent fight against corruption should be non-negotiable. Regulatory and law enforcement agencies like the EFCC and ICPC should be more result-oriented so that they move from the days of continuous prosecutions without tangible outcomes due to defective investigation, case-building, and prosecution strategy and operations. The fight against corruption should no longer be lip service but actionable, efficient, effective, and more impactful.

    Our Critical Success Factors include:

    •Quintessential leadership at the top

    •Cutting/ containing the cost of governance

    • Prudence in government spending at the top, across, and to be cascaded down the

    structure and system of governance

    •Blockage of leakages and wastages in government

    •Zero tolerance to non-performance across all MDAs

    •Zero tolerance to all forms of economic sabotage

  • Obasanjo’s habitual Gaffe

    Obasanjo’s habitual Gaffe

    “Conscience is an open wound. Only the truth can heal it”. Usman Dan Fodio

    Preamble

    Nothing can be strange in the contemporary world. Whatever is happening in any part of the world today must have happened severally in the past. History is a testimony to this assertion.

    A Moment of Brouhaha

    It was another moment of mischievous brouhaha in Nigeria when the media waves throbbed with the news of a ridiculous mischief by a former Nigerian President, Chief Mathew AremuOlusegunOkikiolakanObasanjo. He was reported to have said that the current Nigerian federal government, led by President MuhammaduBuhari, was championing what he called ‘Fulanization’ of Africa and ‘Islamization’ of West Africa. Ordinarily, such an inconsequential inflammatory statementshould not have been of any concern to ‘The Message’ column. But as a watchful Islamic column, the word ‘Islamization’ which is a coinage of Nigerian Christian media could not have passed by it without critical notice. That sour tasted word shamelessly coated in monotony coming from a man who parades himself as a Statesman could only have surprised those who did not know Obasanjo closely. Here is a man who does not concern himself with anything that is not of personal interest to him. Each time he talks embarrassingly in public, his ignorant disciples only jump to the stage in his defence without knowing his hidden agenda.

    Whenever           Obasanjo is imprisoned by his own conscience, the tendency is for him to look for an escape route by all means. That is the situation in which this onetime Nigerian Army Generalfrom Ogun State, Chief Mathew Aremu Olusegun Okikiolakan Obasanjo,who once fortuitously became Nigeria’s military Head of State by sheer opportunistic providence, now finds himself. Twenty years after this man exited from office as a military Head of State, he was again propelled by the same providence from the status of a prisoner to that of an elected President. Although his two terms of eight years of rule as President added no meaningful value of reverence to Nigeria’s democracy and progress, he still keeps gallivanting around today in a vainglorious euphoria of a former President and Statesman despite his  vain octogenarian age. Because of this man’s political shenanigans, any mention of his name serves as a reminder of letter writing. He is eminently qualified as Africa’s Letter Writer-in-Chief. 

    However, what most observers of this restive but evidently jittery man seem not to notice is a conspicuous but mysterious finger   behind which he is struggling to hide in his desperation to dodge official accountability forhis period of ruling Nigeria particularly thealleged sum of $16 billion earmarked for national electricity during his regime.

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    The President then, Muhammadu Buhari, alluded to that loot when he lamented the reason for Nigeria’s non- functional electricity. That querulous lamentation has since become a spectra chasing Obasanjo’s ghost days and nights and preventing him from sleeping with both eyes closed. As a former President, he knows the implications of Buhari’s lamentation on that money and he has been running helter skelter to prevent or delay an official query on it. Thus, he would rather instigate a national war to prevent a public investigation than wait to be caught in the cobweb of a possible landmark corruption by an institution which he set up to fight that Nigeria’s most abominable epidemics. And having lost out in the political arena where his satanic ‘Third Force’ party has proved to be a woeful failure, the only remaining weapon with which to fight a preemptive waragainst the ruling government is religion. His probably believes that by instigating a religious strife he may get some troops to queue up behind him as mercenary sectarian archers. That was why he had to use a Church as avenue for making an inflammable religious statement of provocation in an attempt to ignite a furnace of religious war by alleging a baseless ‘Fulanization’ of Africa and ‘Islamization’ of West Africa as a Nigerian government agenda under Buhari regime.

    This self-crowned African foremost Statesman has not seen countries in the West African sub-region where Christians

    Before and After

    Before Obasanjo, there had been military rulers in Nigeria. We can still remember General Yakubu Gowon, General Ibrahim Babagida and General Abdul Salami Abubakar all of whom are still very much alive as statesmen. And after Obasanjo’s forceful exit from the Presidency, there has been an elected President who is still alive as an ex-officio. His name is Dr. GoodluckEbele Jonathan. None of these gentlemen has thrown dignity to the winds as Obasanjo has been doing even to the embarrassment of his family.

    The thought of ‘fulanization’ and ‘islamization’ by him as a blackmail strategy to escape the web of corruption is not only parochial it is also childishly naïve. Only disciples of the Lucifer can stupidly go to an open market with such a product with the aim of selling it for fee. Nigerians of today have grown beyond such a crawling level in reasoning.

    Mathew Kuka’s Warning

    One of Nigeria’s most vocal persons on religious matters in the country is Ref. Father Mathew Kuka. As a frontline Catholic Bishop and a strong member of Nigerian Interreligious Council (NIREC), this man who shares the same Christian name (Mathew) with Obasanjo had long foreseen the tendency in certain opportunistic Nigerian elements to use Boko Haram as a cover for their satanic atrocities and he had vehemently warned against it. 

  • Hypocrisy of elite expectations

    Hypocrisy of elite expectations

    Selective activism

    As we are rounding up the year 2024 and preparing for the year 2025, I wish to share some points on how I think we should view and participate in governance in 2025 and beyond, especially the elites of this country.

     Some key policy decisions taken in 2024 by President Bola Tinubu, triggered regional, and national concerns, debates, and/ or controversies; and in some cases, rightly so. However, some of those decisions, or reform proposals have exposed the hypocrisy of the elites of this Country with regard to where they stand on germane issues that affect the masses or generality of the citizenry of Nigeria. In most cases, the hue and cries are louder or sustained, only if those decisions or reforms affect the elites and their families. They are not really concerned or do not demonstrate the same level of emotions and sensitivities with regard to issues that only impact the masses of this country. 

    By “elites”, I mean the middle-class citizens, who are mostly educated, gainfully employed, and part of the governance and leadership structure of Nigeria in the Civil Service, Public Service, and Private sector. We are mostly employees or employers of labor as professionals, traditional leaders, religious leaders, businessmen/women, entrepreneurs, academics, craftsmen, etc.

    Except for a few, we, the elites have been failing the masses of this Country by not really taking tangible actions that add value to our political processes. We mainly engage in “armchair “criticisms and cynicisms. Some of the questions are what are the contributions and sacrifices we are making to better the political process? What solutions are we offering and how are we part of the solutions? Only when things affect our relatively comfortable lives do we try to gaslight the situation and make it look as if “we are all in it together” with the poor citizens? During elections, about 80% of the people who go to vote are the masses. The majority of elites don’t vote because we don’t want the sun or the rain to beat us or we don’t want to get involved, and yet we expect Nigeria to be better. Those are some of the things that I call the “hypocrisy of our expectations”. 

    When policies or reforms majorly affect the masses, the elites only engage in mostly either rhetoric, political statements, or playing to the gallery, i.e. the elites are not persistent, and assertive on things that largely affect the masses. This behavior of the majority of Nigerian elites (which is similar to elitist behaviors in other societies and countries) has been the bane of our growth and development as a nation since independence – 64 years ago. The worrisome thing is that we are making things worse; from our collusion in wanton corruption to our deliberate or inadvertent contribution to the political, social, and economic retrogression of Nigeria – either by our actions or inactions. 

    A few instances of the hypocrisy of Nigerian elites that happened in 2024 include: The push back by some northern elites against the Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms proposal presented by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to the National Assembly for legislation; which in my view is the view of a lot of Nigerians is an excellent reform proposal. Interestingly some northern elites in collaboration with some northern governors are leading the “selective activism” by deciding to wear the toga of activism; metaphorically carrying placards of protests against the Tax reform proposal; claiming that it is “anti-poor” and “not good for our people”. Rather than consult, engage, debate, and negotiate the Bill for the betterment of their people in particular and Nigeria in general; some northern elites are attempting to “kill” the Bill with some political leaders saying that the Bill is “dead on arrival”. Some northern elites have gone as far as giving the Bill, religious, regional, and ethnic connotations to stir up sentiments amongst the masses, including saying that the Bill is anti-Islam, \the poor and the vulnerable will be taxed, etc. – claims that are not true. I was rather expecting constructive engagements and criticisms based on facts and substance. 

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    Indeed, we have seen clearly in many other instances how the elites of this country only choose to speak on matters that impact or concern them and their families. Apart from the tax reform, some government decisions that further exposed the hypocrisy of the elites of this country with regard to governance, include the alleged attempt to move the Headquarters of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) from Abuja (Northern Nigeria) to Lagos, and the ongoing claims of “forced retrenchment” of some staff of CBN – with claims that it is an attempt to force some staff that are from some sections of Nigeria out of the CBN. Actually, the CBN has confirmed that the exercise is based on exit package offers for staff that will accept to voluntarily resign – an initiative to downsize an over-bloated CBN. The hue and cry by the elites in the instances stated, whether from northern or southern Nigeria, claiming that the government is not acting in the best interest of the masses, are smoke screens to “protect” their interests, and not the masses. How many of the CBN staff are actually children of the 65 multi-dimensional Nationally poor Nigerians – whether they are from northern or southern Nigeria? How many of them are children of the masses? I even heard that in some cases the elites don’t want their children to be transferred out of the CBN Headquarters in Abuja. I am from the North, and I am an apostle of meritocracy, fairness, and equity. I believe that if we continue to operate with this “feeding bottle” attitude, we are not going anywhere. How many children of the masses are working in those “elitist” federal government Ministries, Departments, and Agencies? Therefore, it is only in the type of the aforementioned cases that you hear, we the Nigerian elites shouting or crying out.

     If we, the elites of the Country, put the level of fervor, gusto, and determination that we put into fighting for our children who are working in CBN, etc. to pursue good governance and demand accountability for the masses, then we would be in a better position as a nation. If we are able to apply the same sentiments, commitment, and gusto with regard to general unemployment and the generation of employment not only at the federal level but also at sub-national – Nigeria would be far ahead in terms of unity, growth, and development. Indeed, we all know that there is a limit to how many civil servants can be employed by the federal government. We have 36 states and the FCT. The majority of the population works at the state level and especially the private sector. How are the elites advocating for or pushing the agenda for government at federal and subnational levels to deliver good governance and create employment, such that people do not even have to pursue civil service jobs? The creation of employment in the public and private sectors through value creation, wealth creation, creating enabling socio-economic environments, etc. How are the elites doing that? And that is why I talk about the hypocrisy of our expectations.

    The elite and conspiracy of corruption

    Most of the elites of this country have been serially failing the people of this country, even worse than the politicians. And why am I saying so? Because, we constitute the powerhouse of governance in Nigeria, whether as Presidents, Governors, Federal ministers, Chairmen of Boards, or Managing Directors. Chief Executive Officers, Board members (in public and private sector), Permanent Secretaries, Commissioners, Directors, etc.; we are all members of the “Elite” strata of Nigeria We have been privileged and so Blessed by Almighty God that most of us that have been privileged to be in those positions (currently or in the past) have either become in cahoots with the vested interest to further plunder resources or cripple the economy of Nigeria; and become the key drivers of the corruption value chain. And yet we conveniently blame Presidents or Governors or “politicians” at our convenience. What a shame!

    Interestingly, for every politician that commits graft, you will find about 10 elites that enable, facilitate, and protect corruption. Sadly, most of those corrupt elites are so crafty, that most of the time, they end up escaping justice. When the elites do not have religious, tribal, ethnic, or regional sentiments when they share money or political positions, or when some of them engage in corrupt practices. They are mostly united in the conspiracy of corruption.

    I look forward to a polity in Nigeria in 2025, where the elites will actually do their jobs. Therefore, I will use this opportunity also to ask the masses to start calling out the elites, in addition to calling out the political class. Because most of the elites have been the master manipulators of our polity. They have been in cahoots with the political class, while it is convenient for them to pretend to be with the masses when it suits them, which is very unfortunate, to say the least.

     The elite of Nigeria should not be “happy passive consumers of good governance”. We have to be active and deliver our own part of our responsibility in Nigeria.

  • The Massacre in Gaza

    The Massacre in Gaza

    “Whenever injustice becomes the law with which to govern a people, resistance must become a legitimate duty with which to quest for legitimate survival”.  Anonymous

    Preamble

    Today’s world seems to be a proverbial ark without any compass that can show its way to a particular destination. Yet, that proverbial ark keeps cruising recklessly on a storming sea without minding the repercussion of a possible capsizing.

    Unlike in the remote or even recent past, no part of the world can confidently claim safety today and go to bed with the closure of both eyes. Except for self-deception, any euphoria of  whatever can be called global peace in the contemporary world remains a property of the past.Thus, from all indications, the contemporary time is fast-tracking the pace of mankind towards the end of human existence.

    The Palestinian Crises

    While millions of Muslims, all over the world, while muslims are eagerly awaiting Ramadan into the world, the international media waves throbbed with unpleasant breaking news that immediately became an eyesore for some people and a sour taste in the mouth of others.

    The news was about an outbreak of a new orgy of violence in Gaza Strip which hurriedly reminded the world of a merciless siege on that same Strip in 2014.

    Analysis of the Crises

    As a onetime Foreign Editor and a student of International Law and Diplomacy, who studied in the Arab world and was quite familiar with the situation in the Middle East, yours sincerely had severally delivered public lectures on the conflicts in that regionwith detailed analysis of the causes and effects of those conflicts from various conceivable angles. Below is an excerpt from one of such lectures which I deliveredsome years ago in different parts of the country:

    “This is not the first time in history that partition would be adopted as solution to a contentious problem. In primordial time, King Solomon ruled between two mothers who were laying claim to a single child thus: “If you cannot give one child to each of the two women claiming to be the mother, then split the child into two and give one half to one and the second half to the other”.

    This analogy was re-enacted in 1948, almost three thousand years after that historic episode in an area disputably called Palestine and Israel at the same time. The only exception in the contemporary case is that the Wisdom of Solomon which brought solution to the historic controversy of the yore is conspicuously absent today.

    Partition of Palestine

    Like the false mother in King Solomon’s time who welcomed bisection of the controversial child, the Jews quickly accepted the partition of Palestine in 1948 because it gave them something that was not legitimately theirs.

    Partition of countries against the wish of the people living in there was not only a social aberration but also a clear evidence of injustice and man’s inhumanity to man.

    Wherever adopted as a solution, partition only brings suffering, destruction and tragedy to millions of human beings as in the case of Vietnam, Germany, Korea and now Palestine. Normalcy only returned to Vietnam after the reunification of that country following ten years of a fierce war. Although the conditions of the partition of Germany after the World War II in the 1940s appeared normal, neither that country nor those who partitioned it felt relaxed until Germany became a single country again in the early 1990s. The situation of (North and South) Korea today can be regarded as temporary because reunification of that country is just a matter of time.

    The imperial powers which imposed partition on the three countries mentioned above against the wish of their inhabitants were the same that inflicted the tragedy of partition on Palestine without any consideration for the agonizing plight of her long time inhabitants.

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    Genesis of the Crises

    The conflict between the Palestinians and the Jews, which now dominates the Middle East crises, did not start by accident. It was well designed and orchestrated from the very beginning. In 1879 when the Zionist movement was officially launched, an Austrian Jewish lawyer and journalist, Theodor Herzl, who, incidentally, was the founder of that movement published an article in a European popular magazine. In the article he declared: “Let sovereignty be granted us (Zionists) over a portion of the globe large enough to satisfy the rightful requirements of a nation; the rest we shall manage by ourselves”.

    Influence of World War I

    The outbreak of the World War I came to fertilize the soil for the germination of that tall dream. The year 1916 was disastrous for the allied forces. Casualties on the Western fronts were heavy. Anxiety rose very high. And the only seeming choice left for Britain to escape defeat in the hands of the Germans was to draw America into the war on her side. It was at that gloomy period that an Oxford educated Armenian, James Malcolm, walked in.  He was a friend of the then British Secretary of State, Sir Mark Sykes. The latter told Malcolm that the British Cabinet was looking anxiously for American intervention in the war.

    Responding, Malcolm who was well connected to the topmost echelon of the American government told Sykes that Britain was going about it the wrong way. He said: “You can win the sympathy of certain politically minded Jews everywhere and especially in the United States in one way only, and that is by offering to secure Palestine for them”.

    That was the beginning of a long journey that was to culminate in what has now become the ‘Arab/Israeli conflict’. Of course through Malcolm’s connection, the US entered the war on the side of the allied forces in 1917 and that resulted in a fate accompli for Germany.

    To fulfill her own side of the agreement, therefore, Britain made a declaration on November 2, 1917 through her Foreign Minister, Arthur Balfour, giving a substantial part of Palestine to Israel. That declaration has since popularized the name of that Foreign Minister as it has since been known as Balfour Declaration.

    Ever since the declaration, the Arabs have never been able to sleep with their two eyes closed. It has always been a matter of war today, ceasefire tomorrow. This is not mainly due to the condemnable usurpation of their land by the Zionists but more because of their own diabolical disunity that has been telling incessantly on Islam as a religion.

    The Fault of the Arabs

    Viewing the Middle East crises from religious angle, the general belief in many Muslim quarters is that those crises are a religious affair. And for decades, the Arabs have capitalized on that belief to whip up Islamic sentiments among non-Arab Muslims for the purpose of winning their sympathy. But looking at the matter critically, one will discover that such a belief is not only misgiven but wildly misplaced. The reason is this: long before the Israeli factor came into those crises, the Arabs had been at loggerheads among themselves for centuries in that sub-region. History is there to testify to this fact. But for the internal wrangling among them, the entire Europe would have been fully Islamized today. At least the Umayyad Dynasty which was fully run by the Arabs lasted for about 500 years in Spain where its headquarters was relocated after eviction from Damascus. Despite that great vintage, they missed the opportunity of planting Islam in the heart of Europe.

    Now, the Middle East crises cannot be pinned down to the Arab/Israeli conflict alone. They are a multifaceted conflict that requires a multidimensional solution. For instance, the State of Israel was not planted in Palestine until 1948. But Syria and Lebanon only agreed just a few years ago to exchange diplomatic mission for the first time since 1943 when the latter became independent. Why? Are both countries not Arab in language, culture and orientation? And this example can be found in virtually all the Arab countries. The truth is that the Arabs are as much a problem to Islam as they are to themselves. Ironically, the divine religion called Islam originated from them. One can imagine what they would have done to that religion if it had not emanated from them.

    Implication of Disunity

    Since the obliteration of Caliphate in 1923 which for many centuries had been the central core of Islamic operations, there has been no precise leadership for the Muslim Ummah. The implication of this is that there has been no universal competent Muslim authority that can be obeyed globally if and when a vital order is given to propel Islam statutorily. Thus every country or community operates at its level to the detriment of muslim unity.

    What is more worrisome in all these is the snobbish Arab attitude which places premium on Arabism rather than Islam as if Islam is the property of the Arabs which can be incorporated into Arabism at will.

    Except for Libya, Somalia and Sudan, no Arab country bears a name that reflects Islam. Even those three African countries only reflect Islam in their official names for political reasons.

    Arabs’ Economic Strength

    The wealth available in the Middle East is valued to be about one fifth of the entire wealth in the world. Yet the size of that sub-region in terms of land area and population is less than 2% of the world’s land mass. But unfortunately, the enormous wealth in the area is being managed and spent directly or indirectly by the West. Every Arab country has her foreign reserve in the US or other Western countries. Their administrative thinking and security strategies are from the West. Most of their investments are based in the West. Yet their most insuperable problem, that of disunity is from the West. How can they survive without the West?

    The total Gross Domestic Products (GDP) of the Arab countries was $1,195 billion in 2008. Much of this money kept in Western banks is what those Western countries use to further their own development. They also use a part of it to finance NGO projects in Africa and some other parts of the world in the name of humanitarian gesture. And most of the beneficiaries are non-Muslims.

    The Way Forward

    Never in the history of man has war been the final determinant of peace. The victor and the vanquished in any war will eventually sit around a table to talk and negotiate the terms of their coexistence.

    It happened in Asia and Europe. It happened in Africa and America. It happened in Australia and the Middle East. There is neither permanency of victory nor that of vanquishness. And that is why there is always room for communication even in a war situation.

    The war of attrition between Israel and Palestine is not in the interest of humanity no matter the sentiments. And it can never be. If these two races (Jews and Arabs) living together on the same land have fought constantly for 76 years (1948-2024) without much to count as gain, logic must dictate a change of style.

    In the last one decade alone, the Palestinian people have lost more than 500, 000 lives; over $70 billion in income opportunity; 20 million square meters of agricultural land; and over 100 million man-hours in crossing either from West Bank to Gaza or vice versa at Ramallah. Much more than that, almost 2.7 million of the 4 million residents of Gaza and West Bank have become refugees in almost inhuman camps. The opportunity cost of conflict for the Middle East from 1991-2024 is estimated to be $27 trillion. In other words had there been peace and cooperation in the Middle East since 1991, every Palestinian citizen would have been earning over $4,500 as income per capital in 2024 instead of the $1,500 now being projected. Every Israeli citizen would have been earning over $47,000 as income per capital in 2024 instead of about $24,000 now being projected.

    Because of an import-export ban imposed on Gaza by Israel in 2007, 95 per cent of Gaza’s industrial operations were suspended. And out of 35,000 people employed by 3,900 factories in June 2005, only 1,750 people remained employed by 195 factories in June 2007. The figures can be imagined today. Blockade has severely hindered health services in Gaza. Between October and December 2007 for instance, the World Health Organization confirmed the deaths of 20 patients, including 5 children due to lack of access to health care. Between 2007 and 2008, 120 people in Gaza died because they were not allowed access to medical treatment.

    The Israeli Government’s cut in the flow of fuel and electricity to the Gaza Strip has also been called collective castigation of the civilian population, which is a violation of Israel’s obligations under the laws of war. Starting from February 7, 2008, the Israeli Government reduced the electricity it sells directly to Gaza.

    This also had a terrible effect on all spheres of life in the Gaza and West Bank.     

    War of Amenities

    The war between Israel and Palestine is not limited to weapons and diplomacy alone. In the Middle East generally, water is a resource of great political concern because of the desert nature of the sub-region. Thus, since Israel receives much of its water from two large aquifers which are sprawled across the Green Line, the use of this water has been contentious in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

    Though the major source of the common water lies in the Israeli section of the disputed land, some of the wells used to draw that water are situated within the Palestinian Authority areas. This has limited Israelis’ direct access to drinking water.

    But the argument is that Israel herself had prevented substantial volume of water from flowing to the areas occupied by the Palestinians thereby limiting the quantity of water that may be drawn from those wells.

    While Israel’s consumption of this water has decreased since it began its occupation of the West Bank, it still consumes the most of it.

    In the 1950s, Israel consumed 95 per cent of the water output of the Western Aquifer, and 82 per cent of that produced by the North eastern Aquifer.

    Although this water was drawn entirely on Israel’s own side of the pre-1967 border, the sources of the water are nevertheless from the shared groundwater basins located under both West Bank and Israel. By 1999, the percentage of water available to Israel had declined to 80 per cent. Now, with the continuation of war, neither Israel nor Palestine feels secure even as threat of further war is drummed into the infants’ ears in that area daily.

    Historically, the Jews and the Arabs are from the same father (Abraham). If one claims a return to ancestral home to justify land occupation, the other may be right to make the same claim. Thus rather than continuing fighting war which may eventually lead to total loss of the entire land, why not sit together and negotiate peace on a permanent basis? That is perhaps worthier than the shedding of innocent bl

    “Whenever injustice becomes the law with which to govern a people, resistance must become a legitimate duty with which to quest for legitimate survival”.  Anonymous

    Preamble

    Today’s world seems to be a proverbial ark without any compass that can show its way to a particular destination. Yet, that proverbial ark keeps cruising recklessly on a storming sea without minding the repercussion of a possible capsizing.

    Unlike in the remote or even recent past, no part of the world can confidently claim safety today and go to bed with the closure of both eyes. Except for self-deception, any euphoria of  whatever can be called global peace in the contemporary world remains a property of the past.Thus, from all indications, the contemporary time is fast-tracking the pace of mankind towards the end of human existence.

    The Palestinian Crises

    While millions of Muslims, all over the world, while muslims are eagerly awaiting Ramadan into the world, the international media waves throbbed with unpleasant breaking news that immediately became an eyesore for some people and a sour taste in the mouth of others.

    The news was about an outbreak of a new orgy of violence in Gaza Strip which hurriedly reminded the world of a merciless siege on that same Strip in 2014.

    Analysis of the Crises

    As a onetime Foreign Editor and a student of International Law and Diplomacy, who studied in the Arab world and was quite familiar with the situation in the Middle East, yours sincerely had severally delivered public lectures on the conflicts in that regionwith detailed analysis of the causes and effects of those conflicts from various conceivable angles. Below is an excerpt from one of such lectures which I deliveredsome years ago in different parts of the country:

    “This is not the first time in history that partition would be adopted as solution to a contentious problem. In primordial time, King Solomon ruled between two mothers who were laying claim to a single child thus: “If you cannot give one child to each of the two women claiming to be the mother, then split the child into two and give one half to one and the second half to the other”.

    This analogy was re-enacted in 1948, almost three thousand years after that historic episode in an area disputably called Palestine and Israel at the same time. The only exception in the contemporary case is that the Wisdom of Solomon which brought solution to the historic controversy of the yore is conspicuously absent today.

    Partition of Palestine

    Like the false mother in King Solomon’s time who welcomed bisection of the controversial child, the Jews quickly accepted the partition of Palestine in 1948 because it gave them something that was not legitimately theirs.

    Partition of countries against the wish of the people living in there was not only a social aberration but also a clear evidence of injustice and man’s inhumanity to man.

    Wherever adopted as a solution, partition only brings suffering, destruction and tragedy to millions of human beings as in the case of Vietnam, Germany, Korea and now Palestine. Normalcy only returned to Vietnam after the reunification of that country following ten years of a fierce war. Although the conditions of the partition of Germany after the World War II in the 1940s appeared normal, neither that country nor those who partitioned it felt relaxed until Germany became a single country again in the early 1990s. The situation of (North and South) Korea today can be regarded as temporary because reunification of that country is just a matter of time.

    The imperial powers which imposed partition on the three countries mentioned above against the wish of their inhabitants were the same that inflicted the tragedy of partition on Palestine without any consideration for the agonizing plight of her long time inhabitants.

    Genesis of the Crises

    The conflict between the Palestinians and the Jews, which now dominates the Middle East crises, did not start by accident. It was well designed and orchestrated from the very beginning. In 1879 when the Zionist movement was officially launched, an Austrian Jewish lawyer and journalist, Theodor Herzl, who, incidentally, was the founder of that movement published an article in a European popular magazine. In the article he declared: “Let sovereignty be granted us (Zionists) over a portion of the globe large enough to satisfy the rightful requirements of a nation; the rest we shall manage by ourselves”.

    Influence of World War I

    The outbreak of the World War I came to fertilize the soil for the germination of that tall dream. The year 1916 was disastrous for the allied forces. Casualties on the Western fronts were heavy. Anxiety rose very high. And the only seeming choice left for Britain to escape defeat in the hands of the Germans was to draw America into the war on her side. It was at that gloomy period that an Oxford educated Armenian, James Malcolm, walked in.  He was a friend of the then British Secretary of State, Sir Mark Sykes. The latter told Malcolm that the British Cabinet was looking anxiously for American intervention in the war.

    Responding, Malcolm who was well connected to the topmost echelon of the American government told Sykes that Britain was going about it the wrong way. He said: “You can win the sympathy of certain politically minded Jews everywhere and especially in the United States in one way only, and that is by offering to secure Palestine for them”.

    That was the beginning of a long journey that was to culminate in what has now become the ‘Arab/Israeli conflict’. Of course through Malcolm’s connection, the US entered the war on the side of the allied forces in 1917 and that resulted in a fate accompli for Germany.

    To fulfill her own side of the agreement, therefore, Britain made a declaration on November 2, 1917 through her Foreign Minister, Arthur Balfour, giving a substantial part of Palestine to Israel. That declaration has since popularized the name of that Foreign Minister as it has since been known as Balfour Declaration.

    Ever since the declaration, the Arabs have never been able to sleep with their two eyes closed. It has always been a matter of war today, ceasefire tomorrow. This is not mainly due to the condemnable usurpation of their land by the Zionists but more because of their own diabolical disunity that has been telling incessantly on Islam as a religion.

    The Fault of the Arabs

    Viewing the Middle East crises from religious angle, the general belief in many Muslim quarters is that those crises are a religious affair. And for decades, the Arabs have capitalized on that belief to whip up Islamic sentiments among non-Arab Muslims for the purpose of winning their sympathy. But looking at the matter critically, one will discover that such a belief is not only misgiven but wildly misplaced. The reason is this: long before the Israeli factor came into those crises, the Arabs had been at loggerheads among themselves for centuries in that sub-region. History is there to testify to this fact. But for the internal wrangling among them, the entire Europe would have been fully Islamized today. At least the Umayyad Dynasty which was fully run by the Arabs lasted for about 500 years in Spain where its headquarters was relocated after eviction from Damascus. Despite that great vintage, they missed the opportunity of planting Islam in the heart of Europe.

    Now, the Middle East crises cannot be pinned down to the Arab/Israeli conflict alone. They are a multifaceted conflict that requires a multidimensional solution. For instance, the State of Israel was not planted in Palestine until 1948. But Syria and Lebanon only agreed just a few years ago to exchange diplomatic mission for the first time since 1943 when the latter became independent. Why? Are both countries not Arab in language, culture and orientation? And this example can be found in virtually all the Arab countries. The truth is that the Arabs are as much a problem to Islam as they are to themselves. Ironically, the divine religion called Islam originated from them. One can imagine what they would have done to that religion if it had not emanated from them.

    Implication of Disunity

    Since the obliteration of Caliphate in 1923 which for many centuries had been the central core of Islamic operations, there has been no precise leadership for the Muslim Ummah. The implication of this is that there has been no universal competent Muslim authority that can be obeyed globally if and when a vital order is given to propel Islam statutorily. Thus every country or community operates at its level to the detriment of muslim unity.

    What is more worrisome in all these is the snobbish Arab attitude which places premium on Arabism rather than Islam as if Islam is the property of the Arabs which can be incorporated into Arabism at will.

    Except for Libya, Somalia and Sudan, no Arab country bears a name that reflects Islam. Even those three African countries only reflect Islam in their official names for political reasons.

    Arabs’ Economic Strength

    The wealth available in the Middle East is valued to be about one fifth of the entire wealth in the world. Yet the size of that sub-region in terms of land area and population is less than 2% of the world’s land mass. But unfortunately, the enormous wealth in the area is being managed and spent directly or indirectly by the West. Every Arab country has her foreign reserve in the US or other Western countries. Their administrative thinking and security strategies are from the West. Most of their investments are based in the West. Yet their most insuperable problem, that of disunity is from the West. How can they survive without the West?

    The total Gross Domestic Products (GDP) of the Arab countries was $1,195 billion in 2008. Much of this money kept in Western banks is what those Western countries use to further their own development. They also use a part of it to finance NGO projects in Africa and some other parts of the world in the name of humanitarian gesture. And most of the beneficiaries are non-Muslims.

    The Way Forward

    Never in the history of man has war been the final determinant of peace. The victor and the vanquished in any war will eventually sit around a table to talk and negotiate the terms of their coexistence.

    It happened in Asia and Europe. It happened in Africa and America. It happened in Australia and the Middle East. There is neither permanency of victory nor that of vanquishness. And that is why there is always room for communication even in a war situation.

    The war of attrition between Israel and Palestine is not in the interest of humanity no matter the sentiments. And it can never be. If these two races (Jews and Arabs) living together on the same land have fought constantly for 76 years (1948-2024) without much to count as gain, logic must dictate a change of style.

    In the last one decade alone, the Palestinian people have lost more than 500, 000 lives; over $70 billion in income opportunity; 20 million square meters of agricultural land; and over 100 million man-hours in crossing either from West Bank to Gaza or vice versa at Ramallah. Much more than that, almost 2.7 million of the 4 million residents of Gaza and West Bank have become refugees in almost inhuman camps. The opportunity cost of conflict for the Middle East from 1991-2024 is estimated to be $27 trillion. In other words had there been peace and cooperation in the Middle East since 1991, every Palestinian citizen would have been earning over $4,500 as income per capital in 2024 instead of the $1,500 now being projected. Every Israeli citizen would have been earning over $47,000 as income per capital in 2024 instead of about $24,000 now being projected.

    Because of an import-export ban imposed on Gaza by Israel in 2007, 95 per cent of Gaza’s industrial operations were suspended. And out of 35,000 people employed by 3,900 factories in June 2005, only 1,750 people remained employed by 195 factories in June 2007. The figures can be imagined today. Blockade has severely hindered health services in Gaza. Between October and December 2007 for instance, the World Health Organization confirmed the deaths of 20 patients, including 5 children due to lack of access to health care. Between 2007 and 2008, 120 people in Gaza died because they were not allowed access to medical treatment.

    The Israeli Government’s cut in the flow of fuel and electricity to the Gaza Strip has also been called collective castigation of the civilian population, which is a violation of Israel’s obligations under the laws of war. Starting from February 7, 2008, the Israeli Government reduced the electricity it sells directly to Gaza.

    This also had a terrible effect on all spheres of life in the Gaza and West Bank.     

    War of Amenities

    The war between Israel and Palestine is not limited to weapons and diplomacy alone. In the Middle East generally, water is a resource of great political concern because of the desert nature of the sub-region. Thus, since Israel receives much of its water from two large aquifers which are sprawled across the Green Line, the use of this water has been contentious in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

    Though the major source of the common water lies in the Israeli section of the disputed land, some of the wells used to draw that water are situated within the Palestinian Authority areas. This has limited Israelis’ direct access to drinking water.

    But the argument is that Israel herself had prevented substantial volume of water from flowing to the areas occupied by the Palestinians thereby limiting the quantity of water that may be drawn from those wells.

    While Israel’s consumption of this water has decreased since it began its occupation of the West Bank, it still consumes the most of it.

    In the 1950s, Israel consumed 95 per cent of the water output of the Western Aquifer, and 82 per cent of that produced by the North eastern Aquifer.

    Although this water was drawn entirely on Israel’s own side of the pre-1967 border, the sources of the water are nevertheless from the shared groundwater basins located under both West Bank and Israel. By 1999, the percentage of water available to Israel had declined to 80 per cent. Now, with the continuation of war, neither Israel nor Palestine feels secure even as threat of further war is drummed into the infants’ ears in that area daily.

    Historically, the Jews and the Arabs are from the same father (Abraham). If one claims a return to ancestral home to justify land occupation, the other may be right to make the same claim. Thus rather than continuing fighting war which may eventually lead to total loss of the entire land, why not sit together and negotiate peace on a permanent basis? That is perhaps worthier than the shedding of innocent bloods where better alternatives are available.

    oods where better alternatives are available.