Category: Emeka Omeihe

Last week’s disclosure by the chairman, Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, Mahmood Yakubu that elections will not hold in 240 polling units in 28 states, should not be allowed to escape public scrutiny. Not with the circumstance that brought about that pass.

The 240 polling units were among the 56,873 additional ones created by the commission in 2021 in what it called ‘expanded voter access to polling units 25 years after the last delimitation exercise in 1996’. The exercise saw an increase in the number of polling units from 119,973 to 176,846. The 56,873 polling units is the difference between the 1996 delimitation figure and the new ones created by the INEC in 2021.

Having cancelled the 240 artificial polling units, voting will now take place in 176, 606 units across the country according to INEC. INEC cited lack of registered voters, no indication from voters to be relocated to those units and insecurity as reasons for its decision to shut down the 240 polling units.

The distribution among the 28 states ranged from one polling unit in Edo and Zamfara to two in Bayelsa, 10 in Kano and 12 in Katsina with Imo and Taraba states having 38 and 34 redundant polling units respectively.  Apparently to douse doubts that are bound to arise from the polling units’ delimitation exercise, the commission made available a list of these polling units by name, code number and their location by state, local government and registration areas.

But that is not all there is to the matter. Of major concern is the criteria adopted in allotting the polling units to the respective states. That is the moot issue inevitably thrown up by the wide disparities in the number of invalid polling units between and amongst some of the states.

How do we rationalize for instance, the fact that states like Edo and Zamfara posted only one invalid polling unit, while Imo and Taraba had a whopping 38 and 34 polling units respectively with not even a single registered voter neither did anyone indicate interest to be transferred to them? On what projections then were such a high number of polling units assigned to the two states? Or is it being suggested that the two states posted high number of invalid polling units on account of insecurity given that it was the third reason INEC offered for disqualifying the 240 units? How come also that some states had no such redundant polling units at all?

If insecurity is the reason for the wide disparity in invalid polling units, it would imply Imo and Taraba states are worst hit by the spate of insecurity that assailed various parts of the country in the last couple of years. This conclusion is definitely at variance with the realities of the festering insecurity which has left states as Borno, Yobe, Katsina, Zamfara and Kaduna a ghost of their former selves. By every indication, Imo and Taraba states are not the worst hit by insecurity.

 The point must not be missed that the polling units were created by the INEC in its expanded voter access to polling units. As at 2021 when the commission set about expanding the polling units, insecurity had spread across the country such that it ought to have been properly factored into the exercise.

This is not to say that the general insecurity in the country is not going to impact negatively on the coming elections. No! That is not the dimension INEC is concerned with now. We are faced with recent polling units created by the INEC but which neither registered any single voter nor did anyone opt to transfer to them.

What the situation presents is the reality that the projections on which the electoral umpire created those polling units did not conform to any known parameters. Constituency delimitation is usually based on population dynamics-migration, population growth and number of registered voters among others. With an obsolete and contentious census data, it remains to be imagined on what population changes INEC based its delimitation exercise.

It would have made better sense for the INEC to have undertaken and concluded the voter registration exercise first before embarking on expanded voter access to polling units. The outcome of the exercise would have given it a fair idea of any exponential growth in voting strength which will now be used to determine the number of polling units to be created. Voter registration should have preceded the expansion of access to polling units. 

A projection that left some states with as much as 34 and 38 polling units without a single registered voter has serious credibility issues to contend with.  It is either a product of educated guess or arbitrary allocations. That is the simplest way to capture the situation irrespective of the patronizing manner INEC chose to present the matter.

INEC deliberately shied away from using the word delimitation to avoid possible constitutional clash. It had in the past tried to argue that electoral constituency delimitation is different from voter access to polling units. That may seem correct even as the line between the two is a very faint one. Perhaps, that line of argument allowed it to create the additional polling units without constitutional encumbrances.

The 1999 constitution makes the delimitation of constituencies a joint responsibility of the commission and the National Assembly. Section 73 (1) provides for constituency delimitation at intervals of not less than 10 years. It also provides that the commission may embark on revision and adjustment after a national census, creation of states or by an act of the National Assembly.

In the absence of any of the above conditions, it is little surprising that INEC’s creation of additional polling units ended up with bloated estimates. But there may be more to it than ordinarily meets the eyes.

If the experience of the electoral body with the voter registration exercise is anything to go by, the reasons for the high number of invalid polling units will not be difficult to fathom. It cannot be forgotten in a hurry how INEC officials in connivance with some politicians inflated the voters register through fake, fictitious and multiple registrations.

It took the INEC a rigorous cleaning up of the data using the Automated Biometric Identification System ABIS for more than 2.78 million names to be identified and removed as ineligible registrants. But that was after an alarm had been raised by the United Coalition of Political Parties CUPP.

That was not all. The commission also identified 23 of its registration officers for sanctions for engaging in multiple registrations. Some of them were recorded to have made more than 40 unsuccessful attempts to upload a single ineligible registrant.

These facts are being cited because the high number of redundant polling units may not be unconnected with similar devious attempts by unscrupulous officials of the commission in collaboration with their sponsors to compromise the process. But like the case of the fictitious voter registration exercise, they had the sophistication of technology to contend with.

They had no way of manufacturing voters neither could they transfer fictitious voters to such centres. But for technology, ballot boxes would have been delivered to such inexistent polling units on the day of elections only for them to return after elections with thumb printed ballot papers stuffed in hotel rooms or the houses of influential politicians.

That was the old order that has presumably gone for good. But old habits die very hard; hence the phenomenon of invalid polling units. INEC should have gone further to furnish details of the subscription rate in the additional polling units it created for balanced assessment of the level of accuracy of the exercise. This demand is vital given that a polling unit should usually have between 500 and 750 registrants.

It would have been interesting to know how many of the new polling units met this criterion. All the same, it is good a thing INEC is conscious of the high expectations required of it in the coming elections. The country is at a peculiar trajectory. 

The capacity of the electoral umpire to deliver free, fair and credible elections holds the ace for the unity, peace and progress of the country. Nothing should be done to encumber or circumscribe the inalienable rights of Nigerians to choose their preferred leaders in the coming elections.

One election; many challenges

By Emeka Omeihe

The coming general elections seem primed for difficult outcome. It is a very peculiar election not only in terms of the plethora of challenges confronting it but the diverse angles they are emanating from. Even as efforts are made to tackle extant obstacles to its successful conduct, new ones with greater ferocity rear up their ugly heads.

Not unexpectedly, the nature and regularity of these crises situations are beginning to raise questions as to whether there are unseen forces working to scuttle the polls. This is especially so given that the way these forces play out, is bound to have far-reaching repercussions on free, fair and credible elections.

Before now, concerns had largely hinged on the preparedness of the electoral umpire and the sincerity of the government in power to bequeath the country an election that truly conforms to the wishes and aspirations of the electorate as expressed at the ballot box. With the new laws permitting electronic transmission of election results and copious assurances from President Buhari of his commitment to the integrity of the elections, public confidence in the process was largely shored up.

 However, concerns shifted to the emerging phenomenon of vote buying especially given experiences from some of the off cycle polls where electronic transmission of votes was experimented. It is in recognition of the prospects of vote buying to impugn the integrity of the polls that the authorities including the law enforcement agencies have been reassuring of their determination to arrest and prosecute those found to engage in these unwholesome activities.

How these promises will actually play out in the face of alleged plans for electronic wiring of money for vote buying during the coming elections is left to be imagined. The banks and the security agencies will be assessed against how able they are to burst the ring that intends to buy votes through wire transfer.

Perhaps, one issue that is yet to be sufficiently addressed is insecurity in many local governments and constituencies across the country. The situation has given rise to genuine fears that elections may not hold in such areas. There have been suggestions even from the electoral body that inability to hold elections in many constituencies on account of heightened insecurity might hamper the declaration of results and precipitate constitutional crisis.

A recent report from CLEEN Foundation; a non-governmental organization involved in the promotion of public safety, security and accessible justice through empirical research and legislative advocacy gave added credence to these fears.

In its ‘2023 Election Security Threat Assessment’, the organization said only two states: Jigawa, Kano and the Federal Capital Territory FCT are presently safe for the conduct of the coming elections. The executive director of the foundation, Gad Peter said 13 states of the country are violence prone while the rest 21 states have pockets of violence in various quarters.

He named the 13 violence prone states as: Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger, Benue, Gombe, Bauchi and Plateau. The rest are Nasarawa, Taraba, Edo, Delta, Akwa Ibom and Abia states. This may look like an exaggerated presentation. But it mirrors very clearly the dire security situation in which the coming elections are going to be held.

Apparently worried by the security situation, the chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Mahmood Yakubu took up the issue with the National Security Adviser who gave copious assurances that everything is being done to secure those areas for the election to go on unhindered. But that is at the level of promises.

The fact remains that political campaigns are not taking places in many of such violence prone areas and others marred by pockets of violence in various quarters. One would have thought a better test for the assurances by security agencies that elections will hold in those violent prone states should have started with political parties mounting their campaigns there.

If political parties are afraid to campaign in those places during this period, it is a measure of how unsafe they feel going to such areas. Given this situation, it remains inconceivable how INEC officials and agents of the parties will carry on in those places on the day of elections. The security agencies should first, secure those places for political campaign to proceed unhindered as a demonstration that all will go on well on the day of elections.

In the absence of that, we are faced with high prospects of the elections not holding in sufficient constituencies as to impugn the integrity of the entire process. That is the reality on the ground and a serious factor that may act as a disincentive to voters’ turnout in spite of the high number of people registered for the exercise.

The election is also facing a new threat from events following the redesigning of the national currency and the resultant pegging of weekly cash withdrawals by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Though the reasons for the currency redesign policy cannot be faulted, its implementation in terms of the timeline for the old currency to go extinct has come with problems of gargantuan dimension. 

To complicate matters, the new currency notes are nowhere to be seen even as the extended deadline has expired. This has brought in its wake untold hardship to the already famished and suffering people of the country. It is also a serious threat to the successful conduct of the polls. It is unclear why the new currency notes are not readily available to the public even as the CBN laid the blame on the table of the commercial banks accused of sabotaging the process through hoarding.

Even with glaring lapses in the implementation of the redesign policy, the greatest challenge lies in its undue politicization. It is clear politicians are taking advantage of the hardship created by the shortness of the timeline for the phasing out of the old notes to get even with opponents in a bid to score cheap political points. Ironically, both politicians belonging to the government in power and the opposition have suddenly found the redesign policy a fertile ground for blackmail in order to gain political advantage. This politicization may lead to complications with far-reaching adverse consequences for a national economy assailed by all manner of existential challenges. Accusations have been so freely traded that one begins to wonder whether those in their vanguard really understand all the ramifications to them.

Some air of complication further crept in when the Supreme Court granted an interim injunction barring the federal government and the CBN from sticking to the February 10, deadline for the phasing out of the old currency. As at the time this article was being concluded last Friday afternoon, the CBN was yet to issue any guideline on its position on the court order. That left the commercial banks somewhat confused as to the next line of action. This air of uncertainty is definitely not good for the health of the national economy.

Matters were not made any easier by divergent opinions as to whether the CBN should obey the court order having not been joined as a party to the suit. The confusion this state of affairs created may not peter out so soon. It has the frightening prospects of defeating whatever gains that informed the currency redesign policy in the first instance.

It is unclear whether the temporary extension through injunction will now compel the CBN to begin to re-circulate the old notes withdrawn from the system; some of which may have even destroyed. And what will be its consequence on the imperative to control the currency in circulation and check hoarding of the Naira banknotes outside the banking system and other ennobling goals of the currency redesign policy? 

The injunction did not address the limits on weekly cash withdrawals – a key component of the currency redesign and cashless policy of the CBN. It is doubtful if the apex court can dabble into such issues without throwing the entire economy into unmitigated crisis.

The situation calls for utmost caution. Isolated riots have been reported in some states against the hardship imposed by the currency redesign policy, the scarcity and escalating price of petrol. Things could get worse for the elections that are a few days away, if partisan politics is not exorcized from the Naira swap policy, the scarcity and high price of petrol.

With less than one month to the general elections, events are beginning to create doubts as to whether its overall outcome will satisfy the irreducible decimal of free, fair and credible process.

Events are taking place in very quick succession in several fronts to suggest that unless very prompt and decisive measures are taken to check the obstructive tendencies of these challenges, the coming elections may after all, be in for very difficult times.

The challenges are evident in almost all facets of our national life. They are perceptible from recurring events in the polity, the economy and other spheres of our national endeavour. Sadly, their combined effects are exerting so much pressure on the citizenry to nurse genuine fears as to the direction the ship of this country is currently sailing irrespective of the promises the elections hold for their future.

Not unexpectedly, doubts are now being raised as to whether the elections will really hold in the face of this pervading air of fear and uncertainty. Even optimists on the future the elections hold for the country, are not left out of the doubt as to the kind of progress a new leadership can possibly make in the face of lingering systemic hiccups.

Are we laying landmines to encumber the new regime from taking off effectively or will these challenges just disappear as soon as the elections are lost and won? Is there anything to give the comfort of mind that the new leadership has the magic wand to resolve these challenges overnight? What will be their overall effect for a new regime battling to settle down for governance? These are some of the nagging questions and the way they are resolved will point the direction as to what to expect after the elections.

Perhaps, answers to these will emerge after identifying the plethora of challenges currently pushing the nation on edge a few weeks to the general elections. Insecurity! This has been with us for some time now. The country is assailed by all manner of security challenges that have stretched the capacities of the security agencies to elastic limits.

There is the Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa ISWAP insurgency in the northeast and elsewhere which the current regime claims to have substantially diminished in terms of their capacity for evil. There is banditry together with its devious manifestations in sundry criminalities. We are also home to self-determination agitations in the southeast and southwest with the former taking violent coloration.

That is not all. There are security challenges arising from the activities of herdsmen across the country as well as other threats to the authority of the state. As the elections draw nearer, the expectation is that our security agencies should have substantially diminished their obstructive proclivities to enable voting go on unhindered. But that does not seem to have happened despite official claims to the contrary.

The security situation has rather become very problematic as the elections draw nearer. There are many localities and constituencies with such volatile security situations that campaigns for elections are not taking place in those areas. If political parties are afraid to campaign in such districts for fear of the unknown, it is difficult to fathom how election officials will convey materials to such areas on the day of election.

That was the fear rightly raised by the INEC recently when its chairman, Board of Electoral Institute, Abdullahi Zuru said if insecurity is not monitored and dealt with decisively, it could ultimately culminate in the cancellation and or postponement of elections in sufficient constituencies to hinder the declaration of election results and possibly precipitate constitutional crisis. This fear is very real and has been heightened by emerging events.

It is evident from mounting attacks on the campaign trains of political parties across the country. It is also manifest in some of the killings and attacks that bear the tinge of politics and religion. These have further raised fears as to what to come during the elections proper.

Even as the INEC is basking on the euphoria of the high number of people registered for the coming polls, this number may count for little if the pervading fear of insecurity persists. The electorate may be scared from coming out to vote unless they get adequate guarantee that they will not get into harms’ way if they venture to vote. Matters are not remedied by reports from some parts of the country of subtle attempts to intimidate voters, warning them no to venture out on the day of elections.

The identity of those scarring potential voters from taking part in the coming elections is not clear. Neither is their objective. But whatever they are, they are injurious to free, fair and credible elections. How the government responds to these threats in the days ahead remains a matter of guesswork.

But the way such threats are handled will largely influence voting outcome. It is usual for the government to deploy security agencies during elections to maintain the peace. In the past when the country did not face debilitating security challenges as we have today, such deployments were scarcely enough for the tasks at hand. The situation will be more daunting in an environment dogged by an assortment of security infractions.

The government has to buckle up to this reality. All the efforts to guarantee the success of the elections may come to naught if nothing substantial is done to douse the mounting tension arising from the pervading air of insecurity across the country.  The tension is palpable and requires urgent measures by the government to reassure the voters of their safety now and during the polls.

There are also challenges to the elections emanating from the interplay of forces in the economic front. The country is currently facing biting scarcity of fuel that has hiked transport fares in the face of escalating prices of goods and services. This has rendered life a miserable lot for a majority of the citizens. The product now sells for about N400 per litre in many parts of the country while the government has just adjusted the official selling price from N165 to N185 thus raising more fears that the selling price of the commodity will further escalate.

Varying reasons have been given for the scandalous selling price of petrol in the last couple of months among them hoarding. Matters got to a head last week when the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress APC, Bola Tinubu attributed the high price of petrol consequent upon its scarcity to an attempt to sabotage the coming elections.

That is damn serious especially given the high level of movement required during elections. What remains unclear however is which political parties stand to take advantage of such shortages during elections. Whatever the case, the persisting scarcity of petrol and the subsequent escalation of its price will have very adverse effects on movements before, during and after the polls.

It is vital that the government takes urgent steps to ensure the availability of the product not only to eliminate potential impediments to the elections but above all, to save Nigerians the untold hardship they now face on account of the high price of the product. With the unenviable record of the country as the poverty capital of the world, the escalating price of petrol will further push many more citizens down the poverty ladder. We shudder at such prospects.

The living conditions of the people are not helped by events following the redesign of the currency by the Central Bank of Nigeria. The handling and implementation of the redesign policy has left much to be desired. The new Naira notes are nowhere to be seen barely three days to the expiration of the deadline for the use of old notes.

The government must take urgent steps to stabilize the economy, check the rising challenges to the authority of the state by non-state actors and sundry criminals. otherwise, Zuru’s warning may turn out a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Barely 11 days after the attack on a sub-station of the Nigerian Railway Corporation in Igueben, Edo State and the subsequent abduction of passengers, the state government last Wednesday, announced the rescue of the last two victims of the kidnap saga.

Edo State Commissioner for Communications and Orientation, Chris Nehikhare who dropped the cheering news also disclosed that seven persons, including two traditional chiefs were arrested in connection with the train attack and kidnap. That would seem a great feat and somewhat a timely response especially when weighed against the background of previous experiences in the hands of the kidnappers. More importantly, the disclosure would appear to have brought a closure to the kidnap riddle, at least, from the point of view of search and rescue operations.

But that is not all there is to the train attack and subsequent abduction of the passengers on that ill-fated day. This is more so as the attack came barely one year after the Abuja-Kaduna train attack in which 14 passengers were killed and 65 others abducted in a harrowing encounter that was to last several months.

The fact of this is sufficient to raise some curiosity as to what could have accounted for the relative timely rescue of the Edo kidnap victims without casualties. This is especially so given all we had been told about the difficulty in engaging such criminals in armed confrontation and the potential risks the captives face in such situations. So what really happened? How different is the circumstance of this train abduction from the previous one?  I will return to this.

Accounts of how the incident happened and the number of those abducted vary. But the account of the state police command would suffice.

According to the spokesperson of the command, Chidi Nwabuzor, “on January 7, 2023 at about 1600hrs, an unspecified number of herdsmen armed with AK 47 riffles, attacked the train station at Igueben, Edo State and kidnapped an unspecified number of passengers who were waiting to board the train to Warri in Delta State. The kidnappers, who shot sporadically into the air before kidnapping some passengers, left some persons with bullet wounds”.

Initial reports put the number of those abducted at 31. The state government was later to clarify that based on intelligence reports from security operatives from the area, 20 people were actually kidnapped contrary to 31 earlier claimed. At the time of this clarification, the government also said that seven of the abducted victims had been released leaving a balance of 13 people.

Before this clarification, two children and a woman had reportedly secured their freedom in circumstances that suggested security agencies had no hand in their flight to safety. One account said the kidnapers released the children and called on their parent to come to a particular spot to collect them apparently as they were finding it difficult to continue their journey with the slow pace of the children.

It is also not clear how the freedom of others were secured by the team of security agencies comprising of the Police, the Army, the Navy, the Department of State Services DSS, hunters, local vigilante and the Edo State Security network. What is important is that the state government mobilized the arsenal at the disposal of these agencies to comb the forests, track down the hoodlums and release the victims.

This effort paid off as all the abducted victims were released unharmed. There is little information as to whether security agencies actually engaged the kidnappers on any armed combat. Neither are we told that any of the victims paid any ransom before their release.

From the accounts of some of the freed victims, it does not appear there was armed confrontation before their release. The issue of ransom payment remains a remote possibility in view of the circumstance and pace of the release of some of the victims.

What appears more likely is that the herdsmen involved in the attack were operating in a terrain that is not really their own. The forests they operated belong to the indigenous communities in Edo State. And there is a limit beyond which they cannot possibly hold on under the heat brought to bear by the armada of security agencies deployed to fish them out.

Apparently faced with hot pursuit, they may have been running for safety, changing locations and in the process unable to hold on to a large number of captives. That may have accounted for the relative ease with which the abductees regained their freedom. This may remain within the realm of speculations in the absence of any information from the security agencies to that effect.

But it does not in any way diminish the sacrifice and gallantry of all those involved in the rescue operation. It is obvious that without the pressure mounted on the hoodlums, many of the victims would still be in the dungeon of the criminals facing all kinds of man’s inhumanity to his fellow man as they are forced to call their relatives to remit humongous sums of money as ransom.

One other thing that seems evident from this encounter is the issue of collaboration with locals in this heinous crime. The state government said that seven suspects were arrested in connection with the attack. There is no information on the identity of the other five arrested suspects. But two of the seven are traditional chiefs from the area.

That immediately throws up the suspicion that the herders were operating in connivance with locals, this time traditional chiefs of the area. That should not be surprising given the manner the attack was hatched and executed with precision a few minutes before the arrival of the train. Those who planned the attack are privy to the arrival schedule of the train. They are also aware that there is no security presence in that train sub-station for which the federal government should be blamed.

They may have secured the services of the herdsmen given the sophisticated weapons at their disposal and their knowledge of the surrounding forests. They may have calculated that security agencies are unlikely to massively invade the forests to confront them for fear of casualties as had been the case. But, it was all a miscalculation.

There is a big lesson from the Edo incident especially for similar kidnap attacks by herdsmen in the southern parts of the country. It has always been a huge puzzle how herders abduct and hold on to their victims in terrains other their own localities. A cursory appraisal of the modus operandi of the herdsmen in kidnap incidents in terrains in the southern parts of the country shows they are reluctant to hold on to their victims for a long time.

In many of the kidnap incidents that regularly take place within the boundaries of Imo, Abia and Enugu states along the Okigwe-Enugu expressway, the kidnappers strike late evenings and compel their victims to raise quick ransom before dawn or face death. That was how the Prelate of the Methodist Church of Nigeria, Samuel Kanu-Uche and some of his bishops were made to part with N100 million before dawn and released.

The reason is not hard to fathom. It has to do with the difficulty in the kidnappers holding on to their victims for long because of the uncertainties of the local terrain they operate. A serious attack on such localities by security agencies will likely produce results akin to the Edo State encounter. Kidnappers know this. And that is why they embark on quick fixes.

That is why they make quick bargains and release their victims before dawn. It also quite revealing of the characters that engage in these kidnap incidents along many of our highways. There is also the issue of sophisticated weapons still in the hands of the herdsmen. The Edo incident has shown that kidnappers even with their AK-47 riffles can be attacked and victims released with minimal casualties.

If this strategy had been adopted in earlier instances such as the Abuja- Kaduna train attack, the country would have been saved the harrowing experience of bowing to the dictates of the bandits. Perhaps also, if bandits know that they will be massively attacked and possibly decimated, the lure for the inglorious business would have diminished considerably. These are some of the lessons from the Edo incident.

It would seem sufficient attention is yet to be given to the predicament of police escort personnel in the face of the escalated insecurity across the country. This is especially so given the recurring attacks on the convoys of prominent personalities across the country and the high number of deaths of security men in such encounters.

The regularity of such attacks and the attendant loss of security aides have taken such a dimension that should task the creative energy of the leadership of this country. Nobody is really insulated from the fatalities of the unceasing insecurity that has reduced life to a verity of the atavism of the state of nature.

But, the increasing plight of police escort personnel in the hands of sundry criminals, can only by ignored by the heartless; those who regard them as expendable objects. Questions are beginning to be raised regarding the value the society places on the lives of these servicemen. Their story has been that of a sad harvest of deaths as one influential personality or the other is waylaid and attacked by rampaging criminals across the country.

And each time such attacks occur, what we hear are stories of the miraculous escape of the targeted VIPs; how they managed to flee into safety and the divine powers or man-made objects that facilitated their escape. But that is just one side of the coin. The other side has been a tale of sorrow and awe characterized by the killing of many if not all of the police escorts and some other civilians in the attacked convoys.

The trend has become so common that our policy makers seem to have taken it for granted. Yes, there has been the absence of strategic thinking as to why police escorts should be dying in their numbers after such attacks. If such situations had been given serious official consideration, measures should have been in place before now to minimize the risks police escorts face each time they are attacked. There is yet no evidence of such measures. Little wonder we have continued to harvest deaths each time convoys of VIPs are attacked.

In October last year, gunmen attacked the convoy of the senior pastor and General Overseer of Omega Ministries International, Apostle Johnson Suleman close to Auchi in Edo State. Apostle Suleman was lucky as he escaped unhurt. But the four policemen in his escort and some other civilians were not that lucky as they were felled by the bullets of the demented criminals.

Apostle Suleman had attributed his survival to divine intervention. It is however, well known that his survival was also facilitated by the bullet proof vehicle in which he rode. The story may have been different if he rode in a regular vehicle just like others that fell by the bullets of his attackers. It is nonetheless good a thing that he survived the assassination attack to tell the story.

Around the same period, Senator Ifeanyi Uba was attacked around Nkwo Enugu-Ukwu in the Njikoka Local Government Area of Anambra State as he was returning to his home town Nnewi. The attack left some policemen, officials of the State Security Services, SSS, and civilians dead. Police put the casualty figure at five.

The state Commissioner of Police, Echeng Echeng who visited the scene of the incident, said there were bloodstains everywhere indicating that the attack was bloody. Uba was lucky to escape unhurt. His miraculous escape to safety was also attributed to the bullet proof car in which he was said to have rode.

Yet, just last week, a former governor of Imo State, Ikedi Ohakim was attacked by gunmen around Orieagu in the Mbano Local Government Area of Imo State as he was returning to his country home. The attack as usual, left four of his police escort men dead. Ohakim who managed to escape the attack gave a vivid account of the circumstances of his escape.

He attributed his escape again, to the bullet proof vehicle in which he rode on that ill-fated day. He said that even when his attackers shot and deflated the tyres of his vehicle, his driver displayed uncommon dexterity and managed to drive to safety because the tyres were manufactured to stay afloat even when they are suddenly punctured.

But one thing that stood out in the account of Ohakim, was his disclosure that those who attacked his convoy were well-trained professionals. He said pointedly that his attackers had nothing to do with regular recourse of security agencies linking the IPOB with such attacks. That should be instructive. 

The list of such attacks on VIPs resulting to the death of police escort personnel and the escape into safety of their principals is endless. While it remained a thing of immense joy that the VIPs in each of these attacks managed to escape courtesy of the bullet proof vehicles they rode in, it was sorrow all through for the families of their escorts and aides who got killed because they rode in regular vehicle.

 Not unexpectedly, the relative ease with which police escorts and other security personnel attached to the convoys of VIPs succumb to attacks has begun to raise questions. There are questions as to why they easily succumb to the assassins’ bullets each time they come under fire. Is it that they are easily taken unawares or their positioning incapacitates them from mounting any serious defence and resistance? Why has it been easy for the marauders to overpower and kill them and escape into safety without the security personnel mounting counter attack and serious resistance? Or is there anything in the disposition and comportment of these security escorts that easily lend them vulnerable to these attacks?

These and more are some of the posers inevitably thrown up by the worrisome loss of police escort personnel each time they are attacked by sundry criminals nursing one agenda or the other. Curiously, there has been no serious inquisition (at least not to public knowledge) as to why these escort personnel are felled in their numbers each time such sudden confrontations occur.

One would have expected especially given the regularity with which police escort personnel succumb to attackers’ bullets that the country’s security leadership should have gone into brainstorming sessions on how to confront the scourge and minimize the casualty level encountered by its personnel in such attacks.

That does not seem to have happened given that the incident has more or less become a recurring decimal. Is there anything wrong in the behaviour and conduct of these security personnel that easily exposes their vulnerability? What of their numerical strength and the way their vehicles are positioned in such convoys? Is it possible to minimize the risks to their lives by increasing their numerical strength as well as the number of vehicles a VIP should provide before such services are accorded them? Is it not proper that a comprehensive review of those entitled to security escorts and the minimum conditions are reviewed to inject clauses that will bar the deployment of security escorts to all manner of people?

If such people must use escorts, is it not possible to mandate them to provide two vehicles for the escorts with one riding in front while the other at the back? There is no doubt that with such an arrangement, the security escorts will be in a better stead to confront potential attackers and reduce the risks they face each time they come under the fire power of the criminals.

Those who are unable to meet these conditions should have no need for such escorts. But there is also something in the conduct of some security escort officials that predispose them to easy attack and overpowering by their attackers.

Apart from instances such escorts took recourse to unlawful acts such as the shooting of a couple at a night club by those attached to a popular musician without any just cause, some of them are known to have gotten drunk while accompanying their principals to social functions. At some other times, they are seen firing indiscriminately into the air just for the fun of it. But the wasted bullets are funded by the common tax payer.

What magic do we expect if such drunk and very relaxed escorts suddenly come under serious attack? Something urgent both in the training, deployment and modus operandi of police escorts has to be done to reduce the casualty level that results from such attacks.

Police escort personnel are fathers, brothers, husbands and relations of some people. They do not deserve to die in the manner we have seen in recent times. They deserve protection just like their principals in the bullet proof vehicles.

Those who followed events leading to the calling off of the last strike action by the Academic Staff Union of Universities, (ASUU) would not be surprised at the emerging altercation between the union and Speaker of the House of Representatives, Femi Gbajabiamila.

The disagreement is sequel to allegations by ASUU president, Emmanuel Osodeke that Gbajabiamila deceived the union to call off the strike on October, 14, 2022. Osodeke had said that the union called off the strike following a promissory letter signed by the speaker stating that part of the withheld salaries of its members would be paid. He accused the Speaker of failing to deliver on his commitment.

But the Speaker through the chairman, House Committee on Media and Public affairs, Benjamin Kalu denied Osodeke’s claims. In a statement, he said that at no time did Gbajabiamila agree with ASUU that the lecturers would be paid for the period they were on strike.

“For the record, at no point did the Speaker of the House of Representatives commit to offset the arrears of salaries owed to union members for the time they were on strike. The House of Representatives helped resolve the strike by making commitment to improve the welfare package of university lecturers and revitalization funds to improve infrastructure and operations of federal universities”, Kalu insisted

These commitments he said, “are reflected in the 2023 Appropriation Bill, which includes N170 billion to provide a level of increment in the welfare package of university lecturers and an additional N300 billion in revitalization funds”.

But a copy of the promissory letter signed by Gbajabiamila made available to a national daily read inter alia “After exhaustive deliberations which necessitated several visits by Mr. Speaker to the President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Major General Muhammed Buhari (retd), the honourable Speaker called for another meeting with officials of ASUU on Monday, October, 10, 2022. The meeting came to the following resolutions: “the no-work-no-pay policy of the government remains a subsisting policy for all industrial actions, but the government will on the special ground concede ASUU to pay a part of its salaries during the strike period”.

Apparently referencing on this letter, Osodeke queried: “How do you want our members to feel after we told them and showed them evidence that the speaker promised to pay partly”.

Now, the issues! Unless this promissory letter is being denied by the speaker, there is no ambiguity in the claim by ASUU president that the speaker committed on behalf of the federal government to pay part of the salary arrears of ASUU members during the period of the strike. Though he restated that the policy of no-work-no-pay remains a subsisting policy of the government in all industrial action, he nonetheless gave an undertaking that the government will on the special ground concede ASUU to pay a part of its salaries during the period of the strike.

There is no doubt about that commitment going by the contents of the promissory letter. What was not stated was the fraction of the owed salaries to be paid. Going by the same letter, it is really amazing that Kalu had the boldness to deny that the speaker promised to pay part of the salaries owed the union members. The promissory letter betrayed that denial.

If the contention is that the speaker did not promise to offset the whole arrears owed union members, this could be understood. He only promised to pay a part of the salaries during the strike. The emphasis is on the payment of part of the owed salaries. But to deny that any commitment was made, contradicts the contents of his promissory letter.

Kalu’s other argument that the House of Representatives helped to resolve the strike by making commitment to improve the welfare package of the lecturers which reflected in the 2023 Appropriation Bill is beside the point. Those issues were neither new nor were they the issues in contention when the House decided to intervene on the lingering strike. The intervention of the House came after the National Industrial Court (NIC) and the Appeal Court had given rulings directing ASUU to go back to classes. At that point, ASUU had the dilemma of how to get its members back to classes having not been paid for eight months and in the face of the insistence by the government on the policy of no-work-no-pay. It was a period well-meaning Nigerians were looking beyond legalism to practical and more effective ways to get the union back to work. The House then weighed in and engaged the union in a non-legal option to the conflict resolution.

The intervention of the House no doubt, raised considerable hope that the end of the strike was in sight. Emerging from one of his meetings with President Buhari, the speaker had said,” the House has done its part to end the months’ long ASUU strike and Nigerians will hear the outcome of the deliberations from the president”.

But the president was yet to speak before ASUU announced the suspension of the strike; acknowledging the efforts of President Buhari and well-meaning Nigerians including the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Femi Gbajabiamila. Osodeke betrayed the confidence and satisfaction he had in the role of the speaker when he said that if those in charge of education and labour had handled the matter the way he (the speaker) did, the strike would not have lasted more than two weeks or so.

This optimism was however, jolted when the counsel to ASUU, Femi Falana called on Gbajabiamila and all those who pressurized ASUU to call off the strike to mount similar pressure on the government to implement all the agreements reached with the union. He gave no details. The subsequent payment of the October salaries of ASUU members pro rata was all that was required to prove that something had gone wrong somewhere.

ASUU complained bitterly of the seeming treatment of its members as casual workers through the pro rata payment. The speaker was quick to respond by giving hope that issues to the strike are getting appropriate hearing through increased allocation to education in the 2023 Appropriation Bill among others.

He must have disappointed many when he sought to justify the pro rata payment thus, “ the executives position that it is not obligated to pay salaries to the lecturers for the time spent on strike is premised on the law and government’s legitimate interest in preventing moral hazard and discouraging disruptive industrial actions”.

The speaker said interventions have been made to explore the possibility of partial payment to the lecturers and he looks forward to a favourable consideration by Buhari who he said has manifested desire for what is prudent and necessary to resolve all outstanding issues. It is worthy of note that the issue of partial payment of the arrears of the lecturers’ salaries had been a recurring decimal in all the interactions of Gbajabiamila with the union.  So at what point was it abandoned to warrant the raging disagreement? That also throws up the question of what was really gained from the intervention of the House in the crisis.

In an earlier article published in this column titled, “Gbajabiamila’s ASUU burden” we had asked, so what was the benefit of the intervention of the House leadership? Was the speaker really sincere in his dealings with ASUU or he got betrayed by those on whose behalf he engaged the union. How did things get out of hands that ASUU failed to get any reprieve on the issue of salaries?

These posers are still relevant especially given the promissory letter signed by the speaker. But one thing that stands out very distinctly is that we are yet to be told truth about how the promise of partial payment went awry. That is the burden Gbajabiamila is shouldering. The excuses offered by Kalu failed woefully in the face of the promissory letter signed by his boss.

Even with recent alarm by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on the danger incessant attacks on its facilities pose to the 2023 elections, it appears respite is yet to come its way.

INEC chairman, Mahmood Yakubu, had a fortnight ago lamented the losses by the electoral umpire due to attacks on three local government offices of the commission across the country. He had said a total of 1,992 ballot boxes, 399 voting cubicles and 22 electronic power generators as well as thousands of uncollected Permanent Voters Cards PVCs were destroyed in those attacks.

But he was not discouraged by those attacks and attendant losses as he assured INEC will recover from them and replace the lost materials. Yakubu captured the dilemma in the continued attacks when he admitted that there is a limit to the ability of the electoral body to keep on replacing these materials as elections draw nearer.

What this implies is that security agencies just have to rise to the challenge of coming up with the right strategies to protect these facilities or risk the coming elections being put in harms’ way. That is the clear message.

So a harvest of these attacks in the face of the inability of the security architecture to provide adequate protection to the facilities will amount to setting the ground for the disenfranchisement of sections of voters. That would obviously compromise the elections and diminish their credibility and acceptability. That is the potent danger.

At the time Mahmood spoke, the facilities of the commission in Ogun, Osun and Ebonyi states had come under serious attacks by yet to be identified hoodlums. But the attacks are yet to abate with reports of similar incidents in the Orlu and Oru West local government areas of Imo State. INEC records had put the number of such attacks in recent months to seven thus raising more fears on the future of the 2023 elections should the trend continue unchecked.

As I write, there was yet another attack at the headquarters of INEC in Owerri, Imo State. The hoodlums who arrived around 3 a.m hurled explosives into the INEC compound setting some structures on fire. In the ensuing confrontation with security agencies, three of the hoodlums were killed even as one gallant police officer equally fell to the fire power of the criminals. In this case, one of the criminals was reportedly arrested.

INEC said the attack happened on the day of the commencement of collection of Permanent Voters Cards PVCs for the 2023 elections. But they were quick to add that no critical election material was lost. One thing that stands out from this last attack is that apart from neutralizing some of the criminals, an arrest was made at the scene. That marks a sharp departure from previous attacks where the arsonists operated freely and disappeared without any traces.

In earlier incidents elsewhere, it was commonplace for security agencies to finger arsonists, unknown gunmen, hoodlums and the Indigenous People of Biafra, IPOB, for the attacks. This pattern of blame trading in the face of their inability to make any arrests while the attacks were going on has raised considerable concerns among discerning members of the public.

The frequency and motive of the attacks, the inability of security agencies to arrest the culprits and the increasing incidence of profiling suspects has begun to raise insinuations that there is more to these attacks than ordinarily meets the eyes. Why INEC facilities? Are there interests bent on sabotaging the elections in certain areas to serve predetermined ends? Or is there an attempt to stall elections in some area to give advantage to others? These are some of the puzzles elevated by the frequency, pattern and direction of the attacks.

Not unexpectedly, a number of theories are already within the public space seeking to untangle riddle. Of particular concern is the disproportionate share of the attacks on INEC facilities in the southeast. This may have influenced the views of the Ohaneze Ndigbo, former governor of Anambra State Chukwuemeka Ezeife, and former Ohaneze Presdent, Nnia Nwodo, that the attacks were the handiwork of wicked politicians and enemies of Ndigbo who are desperate to whittle down the electoral fortunes of the zone in 2023.

But in his reaction to the attack on INEC headquarters in Owerri, Governor Hope Uzodinma added another dimension to these theories when he claimed “the attack was politically contrived by those who are desperate to win elections by all means”.

The main opposition party in the state, the PDP apparently piqued by the statement attributed the persisting insecurity in the state to bad governance.  That is how far opinions have varied on the possible reasons for the high number of attacks on INEC facilities in the southeast.

One thing that seems to stand out in all these speculations is the political dimension to the attacks.  Implicit in these speculations are external and internal angles to the pervading attacks. But who are these interests bent on keeping down the voting strength of the southeast for whatever purpose? And who are the desperate politicians seeking to win elections by all means? Additionally, how will the burning of INEC facilities aid desperate politicians to win elections?

These are the searing puzzles the security agencies may have to untangle. If the attacks in the southeast can be explained along these lines, on what factors do we now rationalize similar attacks on INEC facilities in Ogun and Osun states? Perhaps, these speculations expose the contradictions in the glaring inability of the security agencies to get at the roots of the recurring attacks.

The security agencies will be doing a lot of good to the coming elections by providing adequate protection to INEC facilities. With water-tight security, such attacks will become a dangerous enterprise even as it will save the electoral umpire the burden of replacing lost materials as elections lurk around the corner. Adequate security protection is the only antidote to the flurry of speculations on the motive for attacks on INEC facilities in sections of the country.

But attack on INEC facilities is only a dimension of the general security challenges facing the election. There is the more dangerous and more energy sapping unceasing insecurity across the country that may prevent elections from holding in many places. This is not something entirely new. But the full weight of the challenge was brought to public focus last week by the speaker of the Borno State House of Assembly, Abdulkarim  Lawan.

Lawan shocked the country when he disclosed that the Boko Haram insurgents are in firm control of two local government areas in Borno State: Guzamala and Kukawa. This is against claims by the federal government that no local government is under the control of the insurgents. The government may not be comfortable with this, but the story has been told.

Hear him: “There is no peace in Guzamala Local Government Area because there is still no civilian or military presence there”. He said though the state government had relocated IDPs from Kukawa back to their community, the place remains a no-go area for public officers as there is no security presence in the area.

Borno is not alone in this predicament. There are many states in the country where the pervading insecurity has made human habitation a very risky venture. If only the leadership of those states can be bold enough as Lawan, the stark reality of the security situation will stun many. It remains to be figured out how elections can possibly hold in those areas. These are the subsisting security challenges INEC will have to contend with.

How the electoral umpire goes about the elections in areas under the control of all manner of criminals and non-state actors holds a lot for the overall credibility of the election outcome. In the past, we had situations where votes cast in crisis infested areas came up higher than those in areas of comparative peace. This has remained a huge puzzle.

As the elections come closer, it will only be proper for INEC to avail the country with a comprehensive list of areas in the country where the persisting insecurity is likely to impair their activities. And its position on such situations must be made abundantly clear. This will help reduce possible disputes and allegations of bias against the electoral body.