The Nation Newspaper

Category: Emeka Omeihe

  • INEC, APC and 2015

    From all indications, the 2015 elections are bound to have serious implications for the survival of this country. Already, events have been taking place in quick succession in so many fronts that should forewarn the Independent National Electoral Commission, (INEC) it is not going to be business as usual.

    Before the 2011 elections, public confidence in the electoral process had waned very considerably. Voter apathy was at an all time high as the electorate found no reason to continue participating in elections when the outcome had already been predetermined. This negative disposition towards elections was as a result of the brazen rigging and manipulation of election results that had been our fate with previous exercises.

    Confidence in the electoral process was so shaken that it took copious assurance from President Jonathan that he was committed to free and fair elections and the appointment of Attahiru Jega as INEC boss before the people opted to give that election a chance. Given his antecedents then, Jega was given the benefit of doubt since he was considered a credible person. To be fair, the outcome of that election was an improvement on previous elections though it had its flaws largely at the presidential level.

    But events thereafter have thrown up very complicated challenges such that a measure of doubt has crept in regarding the continued impartiality of INEC in managing electoral matters. This suspicion has been such that a presidential candidate in the last election, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari had to accuse the electoral body of having merged with the PDP-led government. Expectedly, Buhari’s scathing remarks attracted criticisms from the government in power. But certain events in the nation’s political chessboard have continued to evoke doubts on whether the body can still be counted upon to conduct free and fair elections.

    There is the much speculated interest of President Jonathan to run in 2015 despite widespread opposition to that ambition from even within his own party, the PDP.

    This has so polarized the PDP that if it embarks on a general election as presently constituted, it is bound to suffer serious reverses. Do not mind its claims following last week’s elections into the Abuja municipality. Can INEC still hold on to its claim to impartiality if Jonathan decides to run despite the welter of opposition from within his party especially in the north? What of the formidable opposition posed by the merger of four political parties? Can Jonathan really make a headway given the armada of opposition against him both from within his party and without if the election is free and fair? From where does he derive the confidence that he can destroy extant structures of the party, hurting sections of the country and still have the comfort of mind that he will win if he eventually decides to run? Can he really make it in a free and fair election after bulldozing his way to capture unconventionally, PDP party structures in the fashion of Obasanjo without re-enacting the hi-tech rigging and falsification of results that marred that era? These are the issues that come to mind following the turn of events in the country. And they pose serious challenges to the electoral body.

    As if that was not enough, events since the merger plans of the four political parties ACN, CPC, ANPP and a faction of APGA were unfolded have also raised further stakes on the neutrality of the electoral body.

    Since the unveiling of the name, manifesto and logo of the emerging party, there have arisen some doubt on the neutrality of the electoral body. Here, one has in mind the unnecessary controversy over the acronym of the merging parties- All Progressives Congress APC. It is a matter of public knowledge that the merging parties had since announced APC as the name under which they intend to fly the flag of their new political party. It is also very well known that the merger took the country by storm given skepticisms that the attempt was going to fail.

    Though the ruling PDP rushed to congratulate its promoters, indications are that that party felt very uncomfortable with the turn of events. This is to be expected given that any gains recorded in the merger process would automatically pose serious challenge to it. It was not surprising therefore that as the merging parties were busy perfecting their papers to regularize the process, a phantom group, African Peoples Congress parading similar acronym, rushed to file papers with INEC to frustrate the merger process. Accusing fingers have been pointed at some INEC staff working in collision with the PDP-government to frustrate the merging parties from using that name. Some other groups have been at work, searching for other names with similar acronym just to frustrate the new visionary initiative.

    Why the abbreviation APC has become the beautiful bride just suddenly is a matter of conjecture. Why nobody discovered that ellipsis in the last 14 years of our democracy until the merging parties adopted it is also another issue. And what is there in a name? This poser has been raised to underscore most poignantly that there is more to the mad rush for the acronym than ordinarily meets the eyes. The PDP has been accused of high level desperation to scuttle the registration of the new mega party. And in this subterfuge, INEC has been fingered as a willing ally. The indecent speed with which the phantom APC claims to have met all registration processes and the certainty they seem to have on their party being registered are issues the give cause for concern. INEC is therefore on trial on this singular issue.

    As if this was not enough, the promoters of the phantom APC have gone ahead to further accuse INEC of colluding with the merging parties. They have even boasted they have the capacity to do this and that including challenging INEC up to the Supreme Court if they are not registered. And when one recalls that the promoters of the so-called party are very obscure persons who have been in similar roles before either by self or through proxy, their intentions become clearer. So from both sides INEC is being accused. The group has been likened to the Association for Better Nigeria (ABN) of the Babangida era and there is merit in it. Their intention is clear and it is to create confusion and distract the opposition from the daunting task of providing a credible alternative political platform for the electorate.

    Consider the name African Peoples Congress. What is really African about this mushroom group? Can we possibly have an African Peoples Congress as a party in Nigeria at this stage of our political history? So what they intend to register is not a Nigerian political party but an African one with tentacles across our shores. Can we really register such a party in Nigeria today?

    The merging parties must take seriously the threat of this group to institute a protracted legal action against the INEC if it fails to register them. It shows they are out to play a spoilers’ game with zero interest in seeking people’s votes. They know that even if they are registered with that acronym, they remain just in name.

    But the strength of the merging parties has nothing to do with any particular name. It lies in the broad national alliances and consensus they have been able to build-alliances that have made them a very credible alternative to the PDP. That is the real issue to worry about and not a name that can be changed anytime. The progressives can as well leave them with that name, douse the noise and move on. It is not the name that makes a popular political party but the vision and people behind it.

  • Niger Delta, Boko Haram amnesty

    If anything, the recent visit of President Goodluck Jonathan to Borno and Yobe states has raised the propriety of amnesty for the Boko Haram religious sect to the vortex of public opinion. This renewed interest followed the outright rejection of that proposition by Jonathan as earlier canvassed by the Sultan of Sokoto, Muhammed Sa’ad Abubakar and corroborated by Borno elders at a town hall meeting with the president.

    Jonathan had anchored his objection to amnesty on the ground that promoters of the sect are ghosts and it was inappropriate to grant amnesty to an under cover group. But many, including the Catholic Bishop of Sokoto, Matthew Kukah had charged that Boko Haram was no longer faceless as they had been addressing press conferences and issuing statements. As if to give credence to this, the splinter group led by Sheikh Muhammed ibn Abdulaziz came up with a press statement repudiating the claim that they are ghosts.

    Abdulaziz could not understand why anybody should still take them as ghosts when they have been holding meetings with the Borno State government and a delegation of the northern governors’ forum. They also faulted a recent statement in which their overall leader Sheikh Shekau was said to have disowned their group. They claimed that those statements were not made by Shekau and that he was the one that promoted Abdulaziz to his current commanding position.

    But this claim goes with a credibility overhang given that Shekau is the only fit and proper person to enter a refutal if he is not a ghost himself. Abdulaziz cannot be speaking for himself and Shekau at the same time and wants to be taken seriously. If Shekau really exists and Abdulaziz has the kind of links he bandies with him, the minimum expectation would have been to get him corroborate or refute those claims. The inability to do that casts serious slur on his credibility and leaves us with no other choice but to believe that the voice we heard was that of Shekau. And this also puts to serious question the credibility of the ceasefire agreement he claimed to have entered into with the Borno State government. It is an uncanny irony that the effect of that ceasefire agreement is yet to be felt in Borno where he claims to be holding forth.

    Beyond these, is the rational for according Boko Haram amnesty in the same fashion it was extended to the Niger Delta militants? Can we possible marry the two groups by way of solving both problems through a common approach? In other words, is amnesty the therapeutic response to Boko Haram insurgency in the same manner it was applied to militancy in the Niger Delta? What of the philosophical and ideological motivations of the two groups? Do they have things in common or prompted by disparate and contradictory desires or belief systems? There is also a territorial dimension to both agitations. These are the issues that will come handy in resolving the controversy arising from the prescription of amnesty as the necessary and sufficient condition for taming the Boko Haram insurgency.

    For one, there are marked differences both in ideological and philosophical motivations of the two groups. And as the spokesman for the presidency, Doyin Okupe pointed out Niger Delta militants were piqued by the despoliation of their environment by oil producing companies and wanted greater share in nature-endowed resources at their backyard. They wanted the oil companies and government to be more caring and responsive to the sensibilities of the oil bearing states. They took up arms quite alright. But their target was largely expatriates working for the oil companies whom they saw as oppressors. At any rate, agitations for fair share in resources accruing from oil by host communities is as old as the Nigerian nation. Curiously however, the government did not deem it fit to attend to the peculiar circumstances of oil bearing communities despite the stupendous wealth accruing from that resource and the squandering of same by sundry buccaneers masquerading as leaders.

    For another, the ideological motivation of Boko Haram is essentially faith-based. They want non Muslims in the north to leave; the president to convert from Christianity to Islamic religion and the conversion of the country to an Islamic state. Above all, they are abhorrent of anything that is western including education. It is ostensibly for these reasons they have unleashed mayhem unto the country leaving in its trail the killing of innocent souls through indiscriminate attacks on Christian places of worship.

    When therefore the Sultan and some northern leaders came up with the idea of amnesty, the first set of resentment to it came from Christians in the north that bear the brunt of these unprovoked and senseless attacks. They could not comprehend why criminals should be rewarded for the reckless destructions that have trailed their activities. They found it hard to understand why arrested criminals should be released in the name of dubious amnesty without accounting for their misdeeds.

    The fate of families sent to their early grave without justification was another issue that polluted the air at the mere suggestion of amnesty for the insurgents. And given our experience with amnesty for the Niger Delta militants, acceptance of such a proposal would see the government rehabilitating the insurgents in the same fashion it did to the militants. In effect, they will not only get away with the heinous crimes they committed but rewarded handsomely for their acts of lawlessness. To worsen matters, those proposing amnesty for the sect were amazingly silent on the fate of Christians in the north who suffered heavily from their acts of lawlessness. This fact went a long way to expose the hypocrisy in that prescription. It is not surprising therefore that the idea could not fly on account of inherent contradictions.

    There are contradictions in constructing parity between Boko Haram and Niger Delta militancy as they differ very substantially both in ideology and doctrinaire motivation. And whereas the demands of the militants could easily lend themselves to easy handle, that much cannot be said for Boko Haram.

    Granting them amnesty when they have not repudiated their ideological leitmotif is nothing but a recipe for anarchy. Moreover, Boko Haram has an international dimension. It has been linked to Al Qaeda and Islamic fundamentalists in the Maghreb. Their escapades extend beyond the shores of this country as shown by their taking into captivity of a French family in Cameroon in protest against Nigeria’s participation in Mali. We are also privy to how a faction of the sect killed some Nigerian soldiers preparing for the Mali assignment. The sect is not only concerned with events in this country but outside of it. There is no guarantee that issues concerning their associates outside our shores, will not provide the ground for them to strike again. So it is not only a Nigerian but global problem.

    Being an arm of an international terror group, amnesty as a solution to terrorism is bound to fail. There is for now, no record of that as a panacea for taming the global phenomenon. Insisting on amnesty for the sect also conveys the impression that there may be more to their activities than ordinarily meets the eyes. The impression is festering that the whole idea is to get the government commit its resources to rehabilitating insurgents and sundry criminals the same way militants were treated.

    But the challenges facing amnesty in Niger Delta even questions the propriety of that exercise again. Today, it has become a platform for sundry characters and criminals to make dubious financial claims on the government. The situation is bound to worsen if Boko Haram is accorded that undeserving treatment. Then, the gesture would have emboldened criminals and evil minded groups to take up arms against the government.

  • Metuh’s misguided claims

    The national publicity secretary of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Olisa Metuh stirred the hornet’s nest last week when he bandied curious claims on the quest by the South-east for the presidency.

    Hear him “I am not aware that the Igbo are calling for the presidency; you can quote me on that. I noticed that one or two disgruntled persons are saying it. Nigeria has gone beyond the equation of where a person (presidential candidate) comes from”.

    He further went wild by asserting that the most important credential for that office is the capacity and capability of whosoever is leading Nigeria and not about where he comes from.

    Metuh is entitled to his personal views no matter how infantile they may sound. But since he purported to be speaking on behalf of the Igbo race, it will be inappropriate to allow him get away with the irreconcilable issues thrown up by his claims.

    For one, his position on the subject matter is not only vacuous and irresponsible but totally at variance with subsisting realities in the country.

    Besides, it is replete with tenuous assumptions that cannot stand the weight of evidence to the contrary.

    The first flaw is the propriety of arrogating to himself the conscience of the Igbo and the barometer with which their political temperament can be gauged. He neither possesses such attributes nor is he verily in a position to speak for the race. Apparently, he has been so absorbed by the little trappings of the office of the publicity secretary of a ruling party to the point of now assuming that South-east leadership is all about PDP. It is not so.

    At best, he can partly speak for the PDP which has not hidden the fact that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock given the high level subterfuge to have Jonathan run for another term.

    But he could as well have gone ahead to canvass support for his boss than denigrate his people as lacking in the credentials for the presidency. That is the reading of his claim that the most important credential for the office is the capacity and capability of the leader and not where he comes from. Its logical inference is that the South-east does not have people with such credentials. The other is that if there are agitations from that zone, they are not based on these leadership credentials but solely on where the person comes from. Nothing can be as asinine as this postulation. He is not aware there are demands from his geo-political zone to ascend the highest political office in the country except from one or two disgruntled persons. By his warped calculations, the views of these ‘disgruntled persons’ cannot represent the true feelings of the zone. But he should have gone further to let us into the grounds for the disenchantment of these people.

    By the way, Metuh should tell us the ingredients of this capacity and capability to occupy that office. We also need to be educated on the astonishing leadership qualities the late Yar’Adua or Jonathan had that qualified them for the presidency that are not abundant in other parts of the country.

    Perhaps also, we require further clarification on the circumstances that threw up Obasanjo, Yar’Adua and Jonathan into that office. Or why the much touted second term ambition of Jonathan is trying to tear the country apart if where ones comes from is irrelevant in the political matrix of this country?

    In effect, if the prescriptions by Metuh were the factors that led to the emergence of Jonathan as president, why are such qualities no longer relevant today? Why is the north up in arms against his second term bid? And who stands to benefit in the event Jonathan is intimidated from running?

    These posers expose the insincerity in Metuh’s position and cast him as one hired to work against the overall interest of his people. This strategy is not new. It has been the bane of the South-east. It is for the same selfish prompting that he called Rochas Okorocha a regional player who should be ignored at the national level for his scathing remarks on the performance of the PDP in the zone.

    Metuh displayed unmitigated arrogance when he boasted he had directed his South-east publicity secretary to reply Okorocha since his office was too big to do that. And true to type, that reaction came from the vice national chairman of the party, Col. Austin Akobundu (rtd) who ended up making a mockery of himself and the man who prompted him on some of the issues he raised. Akobundu queried the performance rating of Okorocha and the decision of the All Progressives Congress APC to hold their meeting in Borno instead of Imo, asserting that it showed they were not comfortable with Imo. This is to say the least childish given the self evident reasons by the APC leaders for the visit to Borno, the epicenter of the Boko Haram insurgency. It was a personal risk the governors took to show sympathy to people of the state who have suffered direly on account of the security challenge. Is it not a twist of fate that Jonathan mustered the courage to visit Borno and Yobe states a few days after governors of the opposition were there? Yet someone speaking for the same president was denigrating the governors for that well thought out visit which exposed the tepid handling of sensitive national issues characteristic of the PDP government. Instead of taking the blame for lacking in the right ideas, Doyin Okupe had the effrontery to accuse the governors of opportunism for holding their meeting in Maiduguri after their maiden outing in Lagos.

    If there is any measure of opportunism and desperation in these visits, it is coming from the presidency which hurriedly amassed the entire security arsenal to ensure the safety of Jonathan. Such show of force contrasted sharply with the prevailing atmosphere when the governors visited.

    But then, the opposition governors were not expected to have been there before now, given that they came together just a few weeks back. The presidency should squarely lick its wounds for thoughtlessness on the matter rather than seek imaginary enemies in the private or public engagements of the opposition governors.

    Beyond this however, Metuh is on his own on the right of the South-east to canvass support for the presidency come 2015. It is a right which neither his PDP nor any other body can abridge or circumscribe. The reality on the ground today is that where one comes from is still the determining factor for choosing the president of this country. And until this primordial calculation changes, the Igbo owe nobody any apology to seek their turn. It is for the same reason that the South-south people are hell bent on Jonathan running. That is also the reason the north wants it by all means. That was the raison d’etre for Obasanjo’s ascendancy to that post in 1999. Metuh must be called to order for attempting to denigrate the Igbo race. At any rate, what concessions has he got for his largely marginalized and impoverished people to want them give up that inalienable right for now?

  • Jonathan going Obasanjo’s way

    Jonathan going Obasanjo’s way

    When recently former president Olusegun Obasanjo unleashed a tirade against President Goodluck Jonathan, I had observed in this column that Obasanjo has embarked on a journey which nobody dared when he held sway without severe repercussions. This conclusion was largely informed by his strong aversion to and intolerance of criticisms especially from public functionaries.

    Then, you dare criticize or challenge his influence at the risk of having all manner of subterfuge pulled against you including but not limited to unleashing the all powerful EFCC just to settle scores. And those who had the effrontery to nurse presidential ambition without his consent saw the rough side of him. Ask former Rivers state Governor Peter Odili how he had to chicken out of his presidential ambition at the last minute. And what happened to Audu Ogbeh the then national chairman of the PDP for attempting to assert his independence?

    Such was the high level of intolerance of that era that many had likened him to a dictator masquerading as a democrat. Then, the fear of Obasanjo was the beginning of wisdom.

    It was therefore curious reading Obasanjo’s criticisms of Jonathan on sundry issues and even leading a coalition of the PDP governors and the party’s National Working Committee against him. We saw how the party’s decision in the Adamawa crisis was upturned to spite the president and the party’s national chairman, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur. We saw how the election of the chairman, Board of Trustees of the party was severally stalled until just last week when Jonathan woke up from the slumber and tried to rescue himself from an apparent loss of control of the party. Obasanjo was said to be the unseen hand in all those events to whittle down the powers of Jonathan.

    All these tended to portray the picture of a weak president or one who was bereft of the right ideas on how to confront the mounting challenges increasingly eroding the credibility of his regime. Questions were raised as to why in and out of government, Obasanjo still remained the dominant character shaping the course of events. This became more puzzling given that even when he is known to have fallen out of favour with the government, Jonathan did not seem to have a handle on him.

    Not unexpectedly, the scenario began to raise some possibilities in the minds of discerning members of the public. Some of these were that perhaps, Jonathan was afraid of Obasanjo, his towering stature and background as an army general. The fact that he literally picked and installed him both as a vice president and in his present capacity, further created doubts as to whether Jonathan could possibly turn against his mentor. But all these doubts began to fizzle out last week with some actions initiated by the president to regain firm control of his party and the government and unambiguously reassert his capacity to bite. So it was when in a pre-determined meeting at the seat of government, a new body known as the PDP Governors Forum emerged with Akwa Ibom state Governor, Godswill Akpabio as chairman.

    Apparently buoyed by the success of that election, Akpabio was to announce soon after that the new outfit became imperative to enable them do away with the Judases in their midst. This was a veiled reference to some PDP governors known to be anti-Jonathan. Among them is Chibuike Amaechi of Rivers state who is also the chairman of the Nigerian Governors Forum NGF. Not only has he been very critical of the Jonathan administration, the move is part of the strategy to weaken the growing influence of the NGF which he leads and his loyalty to Obasanjo. It was for the same reason that election into that body was stalled with the government making frantic efforts to see to it that he does not return.

    Since then, Tukur has been telling whoever cared to hear that the PDP will field a consensus candidate for that post come May. That candidate can be any person but definitely not Amaechi. It is also very instructive that Akpabio emerged from the South-south as the new leader of the PDP governors. That choice definitely forecloses the chances of Amaechi irrespective of the support he enjoys from some of his colleagues and governors of the opposition parties.

    With that, Jonathan has put at bay the overbearing influence Obasanjo on the NGF and PDP governors which in the last couple of months had generated tension and paralyzed activities in that party. We also saw how key personages loyal to Obasanjo have been edged out of their posts in the party including that of the national secretary.

    So who says Jonathan cannot bite? Even Jonathan with his seemingly gentle mien and non controversial disposition could also succumb to the prism that power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely? Jonathan, like Obasanjo his mentor has definitely succumbed to the corrupting influences of power and logic of self preservation. And in the matter of the election of the chairman of the Board of Trustees BOT of the party, he has also demonstrated very strikingly that he is no alien of the game of self survival.

    Loquacious Jerry Gana did the magic. His committee did the ‘wonderful’ job that enabled Jonathan to install Chief Tony Anenih as his choice BOT chairman without Obasanjo and haven did not fall. Obasanjo is no longer talking. He may have recoiled to his shells. Who says Jonathan has not succeeded in silencing him at least for now? The scenario playing out is akin to what Obasanjo did to Ibrahim Babangida and Atiku Abubakar when he was in power. Obasanjo may have after all, fallen victim of the monsters he created during his autocratic regime. It is nemesis. That is the danger in playing god with temporary power. That is the folly of those who see power as an end unto itself rather than a means to approximate public good. That is the inherent dysfunction of creating personality cult around leaders instead of building self-sustaining institutions and structures. It is largely on account of these institutional weaknesses that very ambitious and self-serving leaders manipulate the rules to satisfy their selfish predilections. Africa is replete with such characters and Jonathan is not immune to the dire repercussions of such monsters.

    At the centre of the current manipulations by Jonathan is his desire to run for another term. Though he is constitutionally entitled to another term, the circumstance of his ascension to power and the realities of the power equation in the country are such that some shoulders would be ruffled if he runs. That was the purport of the reminder by the Niger state Governor Babangida Aliyu that he signed a single term pact with the governors before the 2011 elections.

    Events of the primaries of the PDP for that election, account for the escalation of insecurity in the country. The situation is bound to polarize with the current bickering in that party over the presidential ticket in 2015. Yet, Jonathan’s posters have once again appeared on the streets of Abuja. Tukur has said that he has a right to run. Other key officials like Kema Chikwe have equally been drumming up support for Jonathan’s 2015 ambition. Jonathan silence or ambivalence in the face of these weighty campaigns for him can be taken as acquiescence. And like his estranged godfather Obasanjo, he is set to uproot all obstacles to that ambition. How this will eventually work out and its larger repercussion for the polity is only a matter of time. But the future is loaded, very loaded indeed!

  • Lagos bomb: matters arising

    Lagos bomb: matters arising

    Given the way police authorities reacted to the bomb blast that killed a man and seriously injured another in Lagos, one had the initial urge to treat the incident as an isolated one that should not be blown out of proportion. This self-imposed caution was further dictated by the security challenges the nation is currently passing through. The fact that the explosion occurred under a seemingly innocuous bridge and did not take the shape of the terror attacks common in the northern parts of the country also combined to take the shine off that isolated but deadly bomb attack.

    But when my little son came back from school and asked “Daddy is it true that Boko Haram is coming to Lagos”, it dawned on me that the incident cannot possibly be played down no matter how hard one tries. My first reaction was that of surprise and then I asked what he meant by that. He told me he heard Boko Haram was coming and that they had already exploded a bomb that killed some people in Lagos. According to him, the rumour of the impending invasion of the sect was everywhere.

    It then struck me that there are issues the bomb blast at the FESTAC-Amuwo Odofin link bridge has brought to the front burner despite the efforts of the Lagos Commissioner of Police, Umar Manko to play it down. Initial reports that filtered quoted Manko to have attributed the blast to electrical fault.

    But when he visited the scene of the incident, he reversed himself and acknowledged the bomb even as he described it as a minor blast. He said “what happened here was a minor explosion. The improvised device that went off was not the type Nigerians were use to. It is the one common with torch battery”.

    It is apparent that the police chief wanted to disabuse the minds of the public from constructing parallels between this and Boko Haram attacks for fear of panicking. That is why he was quick to add that it is not the type we are used to. That also, is the reason he likened the device to the one common with torch battery.

    But whether torch battery or some other lesser contrivance, the device got the targets and dealt a death blow on them. It left horror in its trail such that the casualty figure could have been much higher were it detonated in a crowded area. This singular realization and the fact that it is the first of its kind since such attacks commenced in the north may have combined to spread the rumor that Boko Haram has infiltrated the state. Though the suspicion that it could be the handiwork of that religious sect is a very remote possibility, yet the incident bears positive correlation with the culture of violence introduced into the nation’s political landscape by the Boko Haram insurgents.

    For all one may wish to care, Improvised Explosive Devices IED’s have since been popularized by the insurgents such that it has sunk deep down the sub-conscious mind of the people. Frequent reports of improvised explosives hurled at the JTF, hidden along the road side and planted here and there, have combined to give the impression that bombs can easily be manufactured by whosoever cares.

    And in an impoverished society likes ours battling with myriads of social problems including high level criminality, the consequences could be very devastating. That is perhaps, the potent danger the incident has brought to the fore. That is the monster Boko Haram has unleashed unto this country. And since one monster begets another, it is not surprising that criminally-minded people will find it easy tool to eliminate opponents and settle personal scores. That is the real danger we are being made to face by virtue of that attack. Perhaps, the only bomb attack in Lagos before now was the one that killed veteran journalist Dele Giwa during the regime of Babangida. Though the nation did not imbibe the culture of letter bombs which that incident tried to introduce, there is nothing to give comfort that the use of improvised bombs for sundry devious objectives will not fester. That is the real danger now confronting us all.

    If our recent experiences are anything to go by, then we are in for another trouble. That was how kidnapping started in a very small scale involving the taking into hostage of foreign oil workers for ransom. It soon blossomed to an all-comers affair, degenerating to a very ridiculous level. In Abia State, it turned out an all comers affair as even commoners and local travellers quickly became easy prey. We saw how that devious activity held the state prostrate and virtually killed Aba until the collective might of the federal government had to be massively deployed to redeem the situation. The same pattern was toed by 419 and similar fraudulent activities. Till date, both criminal tendencies still fester despite concerted efforts by the government to make them a dangerous source of human engagement. That is the danger of importing high-tech criminality into a society that is still grappling with the daunting challenges of development.

    It is not unlikely that these were the fears that informed the casual manner the police set out to play down the wider implications of that explosion. But no matter how hard they try, it is obvious that something with dire repercussions for peace and security in the country has just happened. This is more so, as there is everything to suggest this singular incident had as its main objective, the settlement of personal scores. The target was Chief Pius Oladele, Chairman of the Sand Dealers and Dredgers Association in the area. This is not in any doubt. The bomb was planted around a dwarf brick wall beside the bank of the canal where Oladele usually sat to relax. The security agencies might as well have some other lead on the matter but every indication point to an assassination mission. And this makes the entire affair more frightening.

    If Nigerians have come to that point where improvised explosives can be freely used to eliminate opponents, then every body is in trouble. Before now, the use of hired assassins had been the vogue. We also know how difficult it has been for the law enforcement agencies to resolve the riddle many of these have posed. Now, we are being led into improvised explosives that will further task the energies of those charged with maintenance of law and order. The difficulty in fighting Boko Haram terrorism is instructive. We may soon be confronting IED terrorism.

    The police have said they are on top of the situation. We have heard this worn out cliché over and over again. They have arrested some suspects. We hope they will make serious breakthrough into this issue such that will discourage other evil minded people from taking resort to it to settle personal scores. But the issues must be that weighty since the process of making bombs, planting and detonating same could be a very tasking and risky enterprise. For now, let us watch and see what the police will make of this incident.

  • Tukur’s APC phobia

    Tukur’s APC phobia

    Even with the hurried congratulatory message by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC), it is becoming clearer by the day that the PDP is very uncomfortable with the unprecedented and surprising fusion of these political parties. Though a shred of this discomfort was latent from its caution on the APC not to heat up the polity, there is now, every thing to indicate that the leadership of the ruling party is jittery at the success of the new party. Perhaps, this phobia stems from the disbelief that these parties could possibly agree to dissolve into one, more so with all of them commanding credible regional influences. It must have therefore taken the PDP by the storm to have woken up one morning only to learn that a new mega party is born.

    Or how else can we rationalize the indecent haste with which sundry PDP chieftains and characters have been predicting doom for the new party just a few days of its birth?

    Its national publicity secretary, Olisa Metu, former Oyo state governor Adebayo Alao-Akala and sundry leaders of the party have overnight turned into doomsday prophets. They are either predicting a collapse of the new party, asserting that the PDP will still win the 2015 elections or simulating imminent rancour in its leadership when it comes to the sharing of offices.

    But by far the most curious of these jittery statements was the one by Alhaji Bamanga Tukur, PDP national chairman. He had said last week that the APC is a collection of individuals driven by selfish ambition and not national interest and they will be torn apart when elections come.

    Asserting that the PDP is a national party that can hold the nation together, Tukur threw a challenge “Let the APC tell Nigerians their stand on issues of national unity. What is APC stand on the unity of the country? What is the manifesto of the APC on issues that bind us together?

    And that is where he runs into trouble. By raising these posers, the impression is being conveyed that the APC’s commitment to the unity of this country is cloudy. If he had no doubt on the commitment of the new party to this irreducible decimal of our federal order, his question would then have been absolutely unnecessary. Asking clarifications on this, presupposes that there might be some other things he knows of the new party that is not yet available to the public. And for someone of his stature, he would have done the nation well if he avails us the information that led him into this doubt. If he has none, then he must be a very big disappointment not only to the party he leads but the entire nation. We say so because it is inconceivable that a party seeking to lead the country is being taken to task on an issue of this nature. Moreover, all the parties to the amalgamation have been around for quite sometime now. There has been nothing either in their conduct or activities to suggest that they are against the unity of the country unless there is something Tukur knows that is not available to us.

    As a matter of fact, sacrificing their differences and unconditional resolve to float a mega party is a testament to their commitment to rescue this country from the rudderless drift into which it has been steered by the PDP. If any party should be taken to task on this singular issue, it is definitely the ruling PDP. Leaders of the APC have said time without number that their goal in collapsing into one party is to rescue the country from inevitable slide to the precipice. By this, they have in mind the worsening corruption that has reduced our citizens to hewers of wood and drawers of water in spite of the enormous resources available to this country. They have in mind the worsening security situation that has threatened the very foundation of this country. Ironically, the heightened insecurity that has raised parochial and centrifugal tendencies to an all time high has been linked to the last presidential primaries of Tukur’s PDP.

    If there is therefore any party that should be taken to task on the matter, it is definitely the PDP. Where is the evidence of the claim and pontification that PDP is the only party that can guarantee the unity of the country? Today, the PDP is largely, a fragmented party. This division derives in the main, from the anticipated ambition of President Jonathan come 2015 and those of other vested interests in that party.

    It is no longer a hidden matter that should Jonathan run in the 2015 elections, that party will be further polarized. This would have dire repercussions for the same unity which Tukur wants the APC to state its position on. The coming together of the parties under the canopy of APC is therefore to provide an alternative source of hope and choice for our people to take their common destiny in their hands. Nothing can be more nationalistic than this sacrifice.

    The question Tukur wants APC to answer is redundant given that that principle has been the driving force for the merger. They have said time without number that the merger is not about individuals, not about ambitions but the overall interest of the nation. That is why all discussions have been without any precondition from the coalescing leaders. That to me is a very big sacrifice that ought to attract the commendation of any well meaning Nigerian. It is an effort to deepen democracy in this country given the dangerous slide to a one-party state in the face of the festering culture of impunity, rigging and falsification of results that have before now, eroded people’s confidence in the ballot process. Those who wish this country well must be pleased by the enormous sacrifice that has been made by the parties in the merger. What they need at this time is encouragement not unnecessary scepticisms as to whether they will quarrel in the sharing of offices or when the elections draw nearer. Such negativism gives out PDP’s discomfort in seeing a credible opposition emerge in the nation’s political chess board.

    But then, these worries about the APC are even misplaced given that Tukur himself had a few months ago, predicted the emergence of a credible opposition if PDP fails to put its house in order. Inaugurating an eight-member reconciliation committee, he had raised alarm over what he called the depletion in the ranks of their members across the country. He then warned that “if members fail to resolve their differences across the country, it will lead to an onslaught of the opposition parties in 2015”.

    As I write, the differences in the PDP have taken a dangerous dimension with no prospects of abating. Is it not a self-fulfilling prophesy that APC emerged at this point in time? So those signs Tukur saw a couple of months back which led him into this visionary prediction have come to pass. Who says Tukur is not a political prophet? So, he has no cause grumbling since he saw it coming. Since he saw it coming and could not avert the looming danger, he should lick his wounds.

  • Ihejirika’s burden

    Ihejirika’s burden

    The Nigerian Army was in the news last week for some curious reasons. Unidentified persons circulated documents accusing the Chief of Army Staff, General Azubuike Ihejirika of favoritism in the recent promotions and recruitment into the army.

    They claimed that recent promotions and recruitment were done in utter disregard of such pristine principles as balance, merit and seniority. Bandying statistics of the population of some states, they argued that the South-east zone where Ihejirika comes from benefited disproportionately from the recruitment exercise.

    According to them, in the recruitment at the Nigerian Army Depot, Zaria, Abia State with a population of 2.8 million had 450 recruits while Ebonyi with a population of 2.2 million had 377 recruits. Kano, Kaduna and Lagos states with populations of 9.3 million, 9 million and 9 million respectively had only 258, 382 and 255 recruits. For them, these represent part of the plan to ‘Igbonise’ the Nigerian Army.

    Perhaps, either because the army would not want to dignify these allegations or due to their sensitivity to the overall unity and cohesion in the army, they did not react to the issues raised. But a group of concerned Nigerians under the banner of Information for Democracy and Development IDD reacted sharply, accusing the petitioners of nursing a hidden agenda of blackmailing and distracting the army from the fight against terrorism.

    Its coordinator, Joshua Yahaya described those behind the attack as “fifth columnists of Boko Haram who are feeling the heat of the war on them by the army and so feel the only way out is to create disaffection within the army”.

    Given the silence of the army, there is the temptation not to attach much value to the allegations. But the issues raised are weighty and have become a matter of public interest especially given the allegations and counter allegations that have been bandied. Having been brought to the court of public opinion in a society still battling destabilizing centrifugal tendencies, it will be a risky endeavor to dismiss the matter with a wave of the hand. This is more so, with the attempt to smuggle ethnic agenda into this singular recruitment and promotion exercise. Since the ethnic dimension has been dangerously canvassed, it is only proper that it either faces the test of empirical examination or be dismissed as an exercise in hasty generalization. On the face value, a comparison of the recruitment figures of Abia, Ebonyi, Kano, Kaduna and Lagos states vis-à-vis their population, would raise the question of criteria for the exercise. That point has to be admitted. If that was the issue the petitioners are raising, one could understand their point. But it is an entirely different ball-game to proceed from there to arrive at the very sweeping conclusion that it is all that is required to enter a case of ‘Igbonisation’ of the army. It is a very ridiculous and uncharitable conclusion that cannot fly without a total picture of the entire staff disposition of the army.

    If the petitioners were motivated by altruistic or nationalistic goals, they should have provided the entire standing of the Igbo or the South-east in the Nigerian Army. Even then, that would not suffice for the real picture until the total staff disposition of all the zones in the Nigerian Armed Forces has been analyzed.

    This point is unassailable given events of our recent past. It is trite that the South-east has been very vocal on their disadvantaged position within the federation. Such words as alienation and marginalization have come to symbolize the perception of their lot since after the civil war and these issues are not strange to any well-meaning Nigerian. Just last week, former President Olusegun Obasanjo had while reacting to accusations of marginalization by Chinua Achebe in his recent book, told the New African magazine that when he was president, “an Igbo lady was Minister of Finance; an Igbo man was the Governor of the Central Bank, an Igbo man was one of the Service Chiefs”. We may add that Jonathan has improved on that by appointing an Igbo man the Chief of Army staff. These are no doubt very positive developments. But one salient point they have exposed is that they are only very recent steps to correct deliberate scheming out of the South-east from the commanding heights of key national offices and security institutions.

    To have transformed overnight from alienation and marginalization to dominating the rest in the army, is the most uncharitable and wicked accusation anybody can levy against the South-east at this point in time. It will only take a miracle for that to happen even as Ihejirika is not known to be a miracle worker. It is true he is the first south-easterner to become the Chief of Army Staff since the end of the civil war. It is therefore to be expected that some vested interests may not be favorably disposed to his appointment.

    Even without hindsight of the entire staff disposition of the army and the armed forces, one can say without fear of contradiction that the South-east is still the most disadvantaged. The very fact that they were not part of the armed forces the three years the civil war lasted says it all.

    What has played out in the recent recruitment and promotions might be an attempt to redress perceived imbalances in the organization. After all, the transformation agenda of the Jonathan administration ought to permeate such critical sectors so that we can build national institutions rather than ones that serve sectional, ethnic or religious tendencies.

    There are also problems in using population to the exclusion of quota, equality of states and merit to assess the promotions and recruitment. If it is discovered that the South-east has been largely disadvantaged by previous recruitment exercises, Ihejirika has a moral burden to redress that. It will amount to inverted tribalism or reversed discrimination if he allows the injustice to persist because he is an Igbo man and for fear of what those who profit from it may say.

    Events during Lt. Gen. Abdulraman Bello Dambazzau’s tenure as the Chief of Army Staff come in handy at this point. Insider Weekly magazine had in its June, 2009 edition reported that soldiers were grumbling over “parochial unbalanced deployment” in the army wondering whether “he is building a Nigerian Army, a Kano army or a northern army”. The magazine alleged that out of the 32 key appointments, Dambazzau gave the north 27, the South-east three, two to the South-west and none to the South-south. It is not unlikely that what is playing out is an attempt to redress years of imbalance as reflected by the skewed leadership of the army since after the civil war.

    The use of population is also not fool-proof given that populations of states do not give the entire picture of the various groups that make it up. We have not been told the ratio of the Igbo or other ethnic groups that were counted as indigenes of states with high population even when they are discriminated against because of the unresolved issue of residency. It does seem therefore that there is more to these accusations than ordinarily meets the eyes. It is hard to ignore the point by the IDD that it is likely the handiwork of sympathizers of Boko Haram intent at creating disaffection and anarchy within the army that is at play. With the current security challenges, it is only proper that the commanding heights of the military and key security organizations are diluted so that no section of the country will have absolute control over them. It is in our national interest to do that now.

  • Boko Haram’s olive branch

    It is not surprising that general reaction to the sudden declaration of cease fire by a faction of Boko Haram has been largely characterized by studied caution. This is not necessarily because such declarations in the past were observed in their breach. The tone for this doubt was at once, set by the leader of the group while announcing the purported temporary cessation of hostilities.

    Sheikh Abu Mohammed Abdulazeez Ibn Idris who claimed to be the zonal commander in charge of Borno north and south did not leave anyone in doubt that he was not speaking for the entire group even as he claimed to have the authority of their leader Abubakar Shekau.

    He had also admitted that there are factions in the sect and that some criminal elements may have been committing sundry crimes in their name. Idris did not help matters when he averred that the cease fire followed negotiations between his group and the Borno State government.

    The immediate deduction from all this is that the cease fire is limited to Borno State where Idris claims he holds sway. But Boko Haram is not all about Borno State neither is its activities limited to that state.

    Admittedly, Borno could pass for the headquarters of the sect being home to its late leader Mohammed Yusuf. It is also one state that has suffered immeasurable devastation from the orgy of violence that has trailed the activities of the sect. In a way therefore, Borno could be aptly tagged the unofficial capital of the sect.

    But it would amount to an over-simplification of issues to give the impression that Boko Haram is all about Borno State or once there is cease fire in that state, the activities of the sect in the country will automatically come to a halt. Facts on the ground do not support such a hasty and very risky conclusion. Not even the record of those so far arrested by the JTF gives such a comfort of mind. Before now, we have been told of the arrest of some other sector commanders whose areas of command fall outside Borno State.

    Apart from Borno, Yobe, Kano, Kaduna, Niger and Plateau states have suffered seriously from the Boko Haram insurgency that has left in its trail the destruction of lives and property of inestimable value. Abuja the federal capital territory has also had its dose of the killings and suicide bombings. We also saw how the mastermind of the Christmas day bombing at St Theresa’s Catholic Church Madalla in Niger state was arrested and rearrested after his escape from police custody. The point here is that Boko Haram has so many commanders that it will be foolhardy for anybody to repose any modicum of confidence in an unsolicited cease fire announced by one of its commanders without hearing from their overall leader, Shekau. Mallam Shehu Sani who maintains close contact with the group equally underscored this point when he said he doubted the sincerity of the ceasefire. He had also said that the only cease fire he will recognise is the “one that will be announced by Abubakar Shekau, the leader of the group himself”. Sani also faulted the move arguing that the grouse of the sect is not with the Borno State government but the federal government and its security agencies. If that is so, the choice of the Borno State government for such negotiations may have been borne out of the fact that Idris’ command post is limited to that state. This perhaps goes further to show the limited nature of the ceasefire agreement. It is also not known that the Borno State government had the confidence of the federal government in entering into such negotiations. Nobody has yet told us that. Neither is there anything in the reaction of the government and its agencies that point to that direction.

    Rather, caution and disbelief have been the official disposition of the presidency and the military to the offer.

    But then, if that faction is able to secure some ceasefire in Borno State alone, some progress would have been made. It would then mean as someone has pointed out, the Idris group maybe representing someone.

    The snag however, is in the three conditions the group gave under which the cease fire can be sustained. They want all their arrested members to be released, damaged mosques re-built and compensation paid to their members. So, even if we resolve the issue of credibility, there are bound to be serious hurdles on the way to sustaining the ceasefire in view of difficulty in implementing these conditions.

    The first problem is with the unconditional release of those arrested for sundry crimes while prosecuting the agenda of the sect. It is unlikely such a proposal will fly. There are also serious issues in the demand that mosques destroyed during the period should be re-built by the federal government. Such a demand is bound to raise emotions in the face of the fact that churches also suffered immeasurable destruction in the hands of the sect. If there are people to demand that their places of worship should be re-built by the government, Christians should be the ones. It is the churches that have been at the mercy of the unprovoked attacks by the sect in prosecuting their self assigned role of Islamizing the country.

    It will therefore ruffle public sensibilities for the same group that took delight in killing Christians and destroying their places of worship to turn around and be demanding compensation for their members and places of worship. So they have now come to terms with the sacredness of places of worship and sanctity of human life?

    What these point to is that the so-called ease fire was ab initio destined for stillbirth. It was not meant to survive and cannot survive. There are so many difficulties on its way that no serious government will embark on the risk of giving serious thought to them.

    Yet, the Arewa Consultative Forum ACF and the Sultan of Sokoto Sa’ad Abubakar have urged the federal government to welcome the development and embrace constructive engagement. It is not that anyone is averse to dialogue. The federal government has said time without number it is disposed to it. What has remained foggy is how to go about it in the face of the secrecy that has shrouded the identity of its leaders.

    The faction is not asking for negotiations as it has done so with the Borno State government. It is clear on what it wants for there to be peace. But it appears they cannot go far until Shekau, the acclaimed leader of the sect has spoken. For now, the most we can take home is that a faction has spoken. And since there are known to be many factions including criminals hiding under their name, it will be too cheap to repose any confidence in the so called ceasefire. It could also be a ploy to deceive the security agencies as a prelude to unleashing lethal violence of unprecedented magnitude on our innocent people. At a time events in Mali are said to be having serious security implications for Nigeria, those entrusted with securing lives and property must not fall easy prey to the antics of some faceless persons waving questionable olive branch.

  • Amaechi and Orubebe feud

    Amaechi and Orubebe feud

    Recent altercations between Rivers state governor, Chibuike Amaechi and Minister of Niger Delta, Godson Orubebe, may after all, stand out for their dialectical value. The issue is not that some quarrel erupted between the two brothers. Quarrels or contradictions have long been recognized as integral part of the human society. It is therefore not enough that some argument ensured. What serves the society better is that at the end of such arguments, the society is able to move better through the lessons they throw up.

    The goal of society is better served when such inquisitions come with some heuristic value. If there are lessons for society in the diatribe between the two kinsmen, then we are better for it. And I think there are.

    What are the issues? Amaechi had criticized the Niger Delta ministry for its inability to re-build the East-West road notorious for frequent accidents. He had also boasted that the nine Niger Delta governors would take up the reconstruction of the road to underscore the failure of the ministry.

    Apparently irked by these uncomplimentary remarks, Orubebe took up Amaechi accusing him of inability to address the developmental challenges of his state in spite of the enormous resources at his disposal. He said it was ridiculous for Amaechi to be pontificating on the East-West road when Port Harcourt is a ghost of its former self with many roads crying for urgent attention. Besides, he berated him for his disrespect for President Jonathan because (he) Amaechi is nursing a vice presidential ambition in 2015. According to him, it is sad that Amaechi sees himself as bigger than the president and uses the resources of Rivers State to bribe the people of Nigeria for whatever purpose. Orubebe was further piqued that if there are any set of people that should work against the interest of President Jonathan it should not be governors from the South-south as Amaechi has lent himself to.

    But in a swift reaction laden with intemperate language unbefitting of the office of the governor, Amaechi gave it back to Orubebe. He refuted allegations of non performance citing what he considered the remarkable development projects that stand out his administration. He argued through his spokesman that he gave the president the highest votes by any single state in the last presidential election and this to him, underscores his love and respect for the president. Accusing him of diverting attention from his inability to perform, Amaechi challenged Orubebe to show him any single project that has been completed in the Niger Delta by his ministry.

    On face value, there is nothing inherently wrong in the two key public functionaries constructively engaging themselves in the court of public opinion. If the motivation is to serve the overall public good, then the exercise is worth the trouble. After all, those in public offices have it as a bounden duty to regularly give account of their stewardship to the people to whom real power belongs. The need for regular accountability by public functionaries is further reinforced in our clime that has been notorious for corruption and official cover up of sundry misdeeds by public functionaries.

    It was therefore good a development reading the duo engaging themselves in what they ought to do to enhance public confidence in their capacity to deliver public goods and services. If such open confrontations especially from members of the same ruling party have been part of our political culture, the festering culture of sleaze among public officers would have waned very considerably. But that has not happened. What has played out over the years has been the mindless looting of our collective patrimony by sundry buccaneers who circulate power amongst themselves and their cronies; doing all sorts of things to protect selves from facing public scrutiny.

    That is why till date, no former governor has been successfully prosecuted and jailed by the EFCC in spite of the drama that usually trail such arrests and subsequent arraignment. With such a background, it will be hard to convince any one that Amaechi’s unsolicited inquisition into the activities of the Niger Delta ministry is guided by altruistic considerations. Nobody will buy that. And as Orubebe argued, there are many projects in Rivers State requiring his attention than this self-assigned senior prefect role in the Niger Delta ministry. If this is true, then there must be more to it than we are being made to believe. By lampooning the Niger Delta ministry, Amaechi is vicariously accusing President Jonathan of inefficiency because the buck stops on his table.

    The inevitable impression the development conjures is that it may have to do with Amaechi’s speculated ambition to run for the vice presidential slot with a northern candidate in 2015. And there are other events that lend credence to this. A couple of months back, the same Amaechi was said to be the brain behind the protests by some traditional rulers from his state accusing Jonathan of ceding some of the oil fields in Rivers state to Bayelsa. The dust of that is yet to settle. Only last week, Amaechi again told Rivers State indigenes in the United States of America USA that the federal government was working against the interest of their state. According to him, waivers sought by that state from the federal government on the purchase of security helicopters and agricultural equipment are being frustrated by the same authorities. All these are clear indications that Amaechi is not getting on well with his brothers in Aso Rock. In the face of this glaring inability to have some of his ideas sail through official quarters, he has opted for the court of public opinion as events have clearly shown. He is entitled to whatever option he consider appropriate for his crusade. But in them can be gleaned some form of desperation and frustration. More so coming from a high ranking governor from the Niger Delta region that is now enjoying the comfort of the highest political office in the land. What could be the matter except he is seen to be working against the interest of the presidency which mother luck gave them?

    Jonathan is said to be interested in the 2015 race. Amaechi by the same account is eying the vice presidential seat within the same time frame. Assuming it is possible for Jonathan to be voted for a second term, does it make any sense for any Niger Delta person to be talking of a vice presidential seat when one of theirs could comfortably win the presidency? This is the contradiction that has been brought to the front burner by the issues in contention. Jonathan was vice president under Yar’Adua for two years. By 2015 he would have been president for four years. If he has not been able to transform the region in his current capacity, what is there to repose hope that a ‘spare tire’ would perform any magic. Is it possible for a vice president in the person of Amaechi to serve the interest of the Niger Delta better than a sitting president who even has the prospects of securing another term?

    It is clear that the Niger Delta has been trapped in a complex web of contradictions that will do it no good. The same forces that held the region down these past years are at it again. Even the idea of the region retaining the vice presidential slot after Jonathan is funny in a multi-ethnic and plural society like ours.

  • PDP and 2015 albatross

    PDP and 2015 albatross

    It is axiomatic the current crises of confidence in the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), is deeply rooted in the 2015 elections.

    Not surprisingly, the dramatis personae in this ugly battle are former President Olusegun Obasanjo and President Goodluck Jonathan.

    At stake is the soul of the party, especially given the non-democratic antecedents of the party in matters of party primaries. The struggle is further accentuated by feelers that Jonathan has an eye on another term even as Obasanjo wants power to revert to the north. He had even been reported to have preferred the pair of governors Sule Lamido and Chibuike Amaechi of Jigawa and Rivers states respectively.

    Why Obasanjo wants to ditch Jonathan now even with the pivotal role he played in his emergence as the president in the face of protests from the north remains a matter of conjecture. There are two possible scenarios. The first is that he may not have been satisfied with Jonathan’s performance rating and therefore wants him out by all means. But his conduct and utterances on the Jonathan-led regime do not seem to lend much credence to this line of thought. Even then, the virulent opposition he is leading against the president less than two years in his current tenure is a big distraction and sufficient disincentive to performance. It is a remote possibility that unsatisfactory performance could be the issue.

    The second putative reason is that Obasanjo wants Jonathan out in order to make amends for his mortal mistake in subverting the zoning arrangement of his party at its last presidential primaries. He was a key figure among those who invented warped logic to support the retention of power in the south when the first term of Yar’Adua expired at his death. Like Obasanjo, many southerners supported that position especially given their aversion to the domination of that office by the north in the past and the arrogance of power that went with it. Ironically, PDP governors from the north sold out for reasons best known to them. But the northern oligarchy has since not hidden its anger and frustrations on the issue.

    It is trite to posit that the escalation of violence in the country took a very dangerous dimension after the emergence of Jonathan at the presidential primaries. It is for the same reason that northern leaders have since taken up arms against some of the settled issues of our federation such as derivation and the onshore/offshore dichotomy among other issues they see as conferring some advantage to the south. That is also why they have now realized that poverty is the source of the insecurity in the north and must be redressed through federal action by negotiating with the insurgents.

    There is therefore the feeling that the desperation of Obasanjo to get Jonathan out and have the presidency return to the north, is part of the overall calculations to appease that section of the country and stem the tide of insecurity. This scenario appears more plausible.

    It was the same mindset that manifested in Obasanjo’s contradictory statements on Jonathan’s approach to the fight against the Boko Haram scourge

    At first, he was for brute force but later reversed himself with the carrot and stick approach. This revisionism fits into the character of a well crafted script to pander to the sensibilities of the north as atonement for that error. That is why Obasanjo has abandoned the man he forced unto the highest office in the land irrespective of his suitability for the job. What has happened between the time he erected all manner of subterfuge to get Jonathan elected and now to warrant the devious scheme to whittle down his powers?

    Nothing except perhaps, Jonathan’s touted 2015 ambition stands against his desire to have power return to the north as a recompense for his sin. Obasanjo wants to be the lynchpin of political power in this country. He wants to call the shots and control everything in and out of office. Yet, the same man would not tolerate what he is now doing to Jonathan during his regime without his challenger suffering direly for it. Maybe Jonathan has no big stick to wield.

    Beyond lust for power and the desire to have power return to the north through the PDP, are contradictions that have been thrown up by the indecent manner Obasanjo is going about the entire affair. The tinge of desperation that goes with his action, gives the feeling of a man in a haste to remedy a bad situation. In it also, is the feeling that a colossal error has been made and everything must be done to redress it else things get out of hands. It is a veiled admission that the current insecurity in the country is largely political and can only be stemmed by redressing the political grievances that gave rise to it. The impression we get is that returning power to the north in 2015 will bring an end to the senseless destruction of lives and property by insurgents.

    There are serious issues bound to be thrown up by this line of thought and pacifist disposition. The first is that the insecurity that has held this nation down in the last two years was politically motivated. Being a child of politics, once we address the source of that grievance (power balance) peace will be restored. This raises another serious contradiction on the propriety of returning power to those who almost destroyed the country because power temporarily eluded them. Questions are bound to be raised as to the end those people intend to deploy power especially with the indecent desperation they sabotaged our collective interests just for the sake of it.

    If power is sought for public good, why destroy the same people for whose benefit it is purportedly sought? Why sow insurrection and decapitate the same country you want to lead just because of a singular act of indiscretion by your political party? What guarantee is there that this category of people will not embark on vengeance once they get hold of power and further heat up the polity? These are the foreboding posers.

    One irreducible fact here is that the PDP has already burnt its hands by not playing according to its own rules. Whatever hurried effort Obasanjo now makes to redress this self-inflicted act of indiscretion is bound to create more monsters. There is nothing on earth barring the north from holding on to power when once they grab it because a wrong precedent has been laid. This is more so as the impression is being conveyed that armed tactics by insurgents is all it takes to succumb. And when they refuse to rotate power, no body will have the moral courage to challenge them because a monster had already been created.

    In all, the PDP has failed this country. It seems obvious we can no longer have peace through it either now or even when there is a change of guards amongst its members. It has lost the moral right to inspire confidence and wield the people together for their collective good. Its continued rule has become an albatross incapable of guaranteeing the peace and general wellbeing of our toiling people.