The Nation Newspaper

Category: Barometer

  • LGS, governors and Supreme Court

    LGS, governors and Supreme Court

    Months after the Supreme Court gave judgment against states maintaining leverage over local government finances through the state joint accounts with LGs, the conundrum of LG autonomy is yet to be resolved. The Supreme Court judgment all but gave autonomy to the LGs by completely delinking them from any financial controls erected by governors. But both the judgment and the bid for financial autonomy have appeared to falter.

    Firstly, the states outrightly resisted the push for autonomy, until Justice minister Lateef Fagbemi threatened them for deliberately and provocatively undermining the Supreme Court judgment. No governor seemed eager to be hauled a second time before the Supreme Court for contempt of court. Secondly, after sensible avoiding open defiance, the governors sought for more time to resolve some technical issues plaguing the account opening at the CBN. Whether those technical details have been fully and satisfactorily resolved or even partially resolved, no governor has volunteered to any explanation.

    But last week, the governors leapfrogged over all the loose talk and considerations regarding those technical details that needed explication and instead jumped into another stratagem to halt the delinking of the LG accounts. The states now want the federal government to enable the LGs to operate their commercial bank accounts instead of compelling them to open new and ‘unconstitutional’ accounts with CBN. They cite legal and constitutional provisions to back their claims. They are partly right to caution against forcing the LGs into opening accounts with the CBN, but it is nevertheless clear that the governors are clutching at any straw to stifle the LG financial autonomy judgment which the court granted.

    Thirdly, other than a few states prepared to sustain their defiance of the Supreme Court judgment and to demonstrate their opposition to LG autonomy, most states have been clever at showing their hands. They remain unconvinced that the LGs can run themselves well or avoid bankruptcy if given autonomy. They fear that once LGs enjoy financial autonomy, it is just one or two steps away from open defiance of the governors. In fact, a few states, such as Anambra, have begun to make laws for administration of LGs as provided for in the constitution, but which cleverly subvert the Supreme Court judgment. The talk about letting the LGs maintain their commercial bank accounts is merely a red herring.

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    At bottom, all the controversies about LG financial autonomy are a reflection of the contradictions contained in a few provisions of the 1999 constitution. The controversies will continue and the struggle for influence and control will not abate until the country is restructured to enable financial federalism on a scale that matches or even supersedes the federal arrangement between the federal government and the states. If the country does not get it right regarding the federating tiers, the acrimony will persist.

    The safe bet is that governors will find extenuations to subjugate the LGs. One way they do this is to ensure that the subversion begins at the level of electing LG officials. Thereafter, with all or nearly all the seats safe in the hands of their political party, they will dare any of the elected LG officials to cross or defy party lines or discipline. Usually, the LG officials are too glad to be elected than care about judicial or even constitutional niceties.

    If the effort of the federal government to ensure that development permeates the local government is not to go up in smoke, they will have to go the route of general political restructuring. Piecemeal selection of core constitutional issues and challenges will only deliver temporary reliefs. So far, the governors are winning, despite the federal government’s comprehensive victory at the Supreme Court. If the governors manage to sustain their victory for a little longer or dither about implementation until close to the general election, they may get away with a largely and deliberately compromised Supreme Court judgement. In fact, the federal government is going to discover that it is alone in this matter. Some few LGs may make a lot of noise, but they will not let the noise develop into a huge fight. Since the state legislatures still make laws for the running of the LGs, it will be a tool dreaded by the elected LG officials, particularly the chairmen, whose suspension could easily be procured by a combative and unforgiving governor.

  • FG’s infirm approach to law enforcement

    FG’s infirm approach to law enforcement

    Though law enforcement is a key driver of societal stability, the federal government has not always applied it proactively and imaginatively to stem the tide of indiscipline and chaos in the country. The Rivers state imbroglio could have been prevented if the law enforcement agencies had been diligent in carrying out their responsibilities. If a state of emergency was proclaimed, it was because anarchists took for granted the weakness or dithering of federal law enforcement agencies like the police and secret service.

    The Rivers political crisis, which culminated in the proclamation of a state of emergency, began with antagonists talking tough, armed with incendiary statements and threats of unleashing mayhem. The police engaged in handwringing at that stage. Then stories of impeachment began wafting across the state. There was of course little the law enforcement agents could do when it got to that point. But immediately the House of Assembly was torched, it was time for the security agencies to bare their fangs, especially because everyone seemed to know who did it or led the operation. In fact, names were mentioned.

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    But the police merely let it be known that they were looking for the culprits. Meanwhile the alleged masterminds were retrieved from public view and protected by the state government. Worse, one of them was rewarded with highly prized public appointment in the full view of law enforcement agents who saturated the Government House. Still no arrests were made. With such encompassing laxity, was it surprising that the Rivers crisis gradually worsened from 2023 to 2025 until a state of emergency was proclaimed? Reference the following proverb of unknown origin: “For want of a nail the shoe was lost. For want of a shoe the horse was lost. For want of a horse the rider was lost. For want of a rider the message was lost. For want of a message the battle was lost. For want of a battle the kingdom was lost. And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.” A stitch in time, they say, saves nine. It is time the federal government and its law enforcement agencies applied themselves diligently to their work. As the Rivers crisis and those who call for coup or revolution have shown, the consequences of pussyfooting are hard to quantify.

  • Obasanjo, Sowore and misguided revolutionaries

    Obasanjo, Sowore and misguided revolutionaries

    In his book, Nigeria: Past and Future, former president Olusegun Obasanjo continues his pastime of inciting the youth to rebellion. Since the last presidential election, he has made it his sing-song to indirectly call for a revolution, pretending that circumstances and hardship would inevitably lead to more aggressive and assertive action by frustrated and disenchanted Nigerian youth. In his new book, he says: “We are currently sitting on a ticking time bomb partly because of the system we practise, how corruptly we practise it, and how exclusively we practise it with impunity, callousness, brazen outrage and total disregard for any element of righteousness, integrity, accountability, sensitivity, compassion, inclusiveness and the fear of God. If the incumbent leaders do not shape up and satisfy the yearnings and demands of their people, especially the youths, who are disappointed, dissatisfied, bitter, hungry, angry, unemployed and disempowered, then the future is indeed very bleak, with no light at the end of the tunnel.”

    Then he adds: “These young people watch helplessly as their leaders tell them blatant lies unabashedly, while continuing their orgies of vulgar and ostentatious lifestyles rather than investing the money from the nation’s commonwealth in SMEs to create jobs and generate wealth. Should we have the misfortune of pushing these young people to the point of crossing the Rubicon, the country will pay a very high cost because a chain of events will be unleashed, the end of which no one can predict… I am not calling for violent change, but it will become a reality if we continue on the present trajectory.” The sanctimonious Chief Obasanjo is too clever by half. He identifies the country’s political system as a predisposing factor for the revolution he has seemed to hanker after since he lost the argument and the influence he loved to wield over Nigerian leaders. Yet, he operated the same ‘despicable’ system for eight years, and did not even remember to advocate its reform when he infamously lobbied for a third term. But, today, he is wise after the event.

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    Last year, he began calling for political reform that would create an amalgam of African or indigenous political system different from either the parliamentary or presidential system. No one gave him a hearing, for they recalled how a while ago he blamed the practitioners of the system for the inoperability of the system, suggesting that no matter how beautiful a system, the operatives’ insular and ossified worldview would make any system inoperable. In his new book, it was, therefore, not surprising that he frontally blames the system for the country’s malaise and adds that political leaders by their orientation have worsened the crisis. Chief Obasanjo is not dishonest about his panaceas. After the 2023 presidential election, and unwilling to learn from Nigeria’s recent history, he called for the cancellation of the results that were yet to be fully released. Failing that, he called for insurrection to stymie the entire electoral process. He desperately longed for a revolution. But he is not the only one.

    Days ago, on Channels Television, activist and founder of Sahara Reporters, Omoyele Sowore, also called for a revolution, employing sarcasm to deliver his message. Insisting that what was taking place in Rivers would make Nigerians rise against poor leadership and bad governance, he said that the proclamation of a state of emergency in Rivers would spur the revolution he dreamt about. But just in case anyone doubted his bona fides, he described himself as a proponent of justice, not an anarchist. According to him, “To be clear, I am not here to defend godfather and son. I don’t care about them. I hope they destroy themselves. I am happy because maybe this is going to force Nigerians across the country to wake up. They have been too complicit and docile as a result of cowardice. It will force Nigerians to complete the 30 days challenge and move on to the stage where it will be complete revolt. That is not me saying I love anarchy but love Justice.” That was of course not the first time he would campaign for revolution. His activism in the past few years has centred on ‘revolution now’.

    Chief Obasanjo and Mr Sowore are just archetypes of the many highly-placed Nigerians who romanticise revolution. Their fascination with revolution will likely continue for a fairly long time, as long as social contradictions exist. They imagine that revolutions happen to others, that their course can always be managed, and their outcome predictable and guaranteed. It is not clear how they read their history, or whether they took the trouble at all of perusing any history book. Had they made time to study History, particularly those of them eager to either influence Nigerian politics or determine who rules, they would be less dogmatic. They do not look like they are willing to moderate their revolutionary talk until it happens, if at all it ever happens. But as long as there is hardship, as long as discord persists among the ruling class especially, the revolutionaries will continue to shout themselves hoarse. They will completely ignore lessons from the French, Russian, Cuban, Italian revolutions, among many others.

    Despite his noise, Mr Sowore is incapable of deep reflections, as he is often led by emotions, bitterness and self-importance. But Chief Obasanjo is supposed to be significantly informed about national and global affairs. That he has chosen to remain superficial is a reflection of his personality flaw, the jaded leitmotif of his worldview and books. Added to the fact that he is incapable of appreciating insults, and because he thinks he is the sun around which everything revolves, there is nothing any book on world revolutions or counsel from experts on revolutions can tell him to sober him up and be less sanguinary about his political interventions. He is approximately 92 years old. If age has not tempered his hysteria, nothing ever will. For Mr Sowore, he appears sensible enough to know that his piffle about revolution does not stand a cat in hell’s chance of coming to reality except nature, not the social contradictions he parrots, plays a joker on Nigeria.

  • Controversial youth corper fools them all

    Controversial youth corper fools them all

    Ushie Rita Uguamaye, also called Raye, a 24-year-old youth corper serving in Lagos State, made social media sensation some two weeks ago when she lamented the hardship in the land and described President Bola Tinubu as a terrible president, and Lagos as a smelling city. It is not known what sanctions the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) would bring against her, but it turned out it was a social media challenge she and others threw themselves to find out who could best create a storm.

    Everything she said on TikTok ran counter to her lifestyle. She spoke of hunger, being forced to live on N33,000 per month allowance, when in fact she dined at expensive restaurants, wore designer dresses and hair, rode in Uber taxis, and generally lived above her means, regardless of how those means were procured. What saddens many Nigerians is not the prank she played on the country or the hypocrisy of her lamentations, but how easily she beguiled top political leaders desperately looking for a cause célèbre. The beguiled leaders even began casting her as a revolutionary lodestar, a lightning rod for their bitter recriminations against the government of the day.

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    That she fooled so many is perhaps not unusual; but that the fooled chose to focus on her laments to the exclusion of her intolerably bad manners shows how decadent, shameless and unintelligent Nigeria’s political leadership class and activist groups have become.  

  • Obasanjo delivers another sucker punch

    Obasanjo delivers another sucker punch

    Ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo’s sucker-punch book, the latest in his often one-sided and provocative books, must have caught his victims off-guard. The former president’s books are seldom about him, except when they are delivered in panegyrics, but all about his enemies, opponents, and anyone he happens to take a dislike to. Presented at his 88th birthday event, a birthday some notable personalities insisted probably took place more than four years ago in a time warp, seeing that he is actually about 92, the book excoriates a number of public personalities and leading politicians. Without those exposed personalities constituting the raison d’être of his books, Chief Obasanjo would make heavy weather of his angry and menacing memoires.

    In the book, one of the two he presented on his birthday, newspapers indicated he reserved the most potent bile for both former president Muhammadu Buhari and his man Friday, Abubakar Malami, former Justice minister and Attorney General. Of President Buhari, Chief Obasanjo writes: “The most atrocious waste, enthronement of corruption and discouragement of officials fighting corruption took place under the watch of President Buhari and the devil’s workshop, his Attorney General, Abubakar Malami…Words are cheap and what needed to be done was left undone during Buhari’s civil administration regime from 2015 to 2023, the worst civil administration regime so far in Nigerian history…Maybe those ideas and thoughts were not his; he just came to read them as  written for him.” It is a merciless and unflinching putdown. But he says still worse things about the former president.

    And of Mr Malami, whom he nicknames or puns as Buhari’s ‘devil’s workshop’, he has this to say: “It was all part of Malami’s financial shenanigans and he played many of such to his advantage. His principal concurred, condoned, turned a blind eye and a deaf ear and paid lip service to fight corruption while cohabitating comfortably with corruption in multifarious ways…I was made to understand that some officials of the EFCC were terribly disappointed, discouraged, downcast and lost the pep in doing their work of fighting corruption as a result of this government action.” These are direct and actionable allegations, but Chief Obasanjo has never let public or legal opinion deter him. The former Justice minister, however, insisted he had not read the book, and would thus need some time to study it. He even doubted that anyone, not to talk of a former president, would pen those disgraceful allegations. He obviously seems to doubt the fecundity of Chief Obasanjo.

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    In effect, neither the Buhari crowd nor the Malami people have yet prepared themselves to respond to Chief Obasanjo’s sanctimonious rage. But they will. They will give their own thoughts after painstakingly studying the book so as not to miss anything of value to the case they might want to make against the former president. It is suspected that the responders will be thorough. They will squirm at some of the allegations the former president has leveled against them, and will be seriously upset that he is so merciless and so condescending; but they will find themselves compelled to rationally and convincingly refute the allegations. That task will not be easy, especially for Mr Malami whose reputation precedes him. But for President Buhari, whom Chief Obasanjo lampoons freely  in general and circumstantial terms, he can afford to be also vague and scurrilous.

    What makes the whole exercise gut-wrenching for President Buhari and former Justice minister is that no matter what they say, Chief Obasanjo will remain unflappable and implacable. He has given his enemies a piece of his mind, and has had the joyous pleasure of saying his worse first. He will shrug off whatever anyone might say about him even before getting the chance to read the pesky little book. It is Chief Obasanjo’s custom first to damn his enemies, and sometime his friends too, and to stoically ignore his enemies’ rebuttals, no matter how damaging. Nothing affects Chief Obasanjo, whether it is an allegation or not, no matter how personal or intimate, whether it comes from an outsider or an insider and family member, including his children or wives. The former president thrives on controversies, indeed luxuriates in them, and can’t live or breathe without them, even if you find his superior airs riling to the uttermost.

    In a measured way, President Bola Tinubu’s aides have offered some tentative responses to the scud missiles fired at their boss. The president suffered nothing more than collateral damage in the book, but his aides have been impelled to respond somewhat copiously as a result of what they describe as the serial illogic of the former president and his absolutely tendentious writings. It is not clear whether they have read the book yet, but they have probably depended on newspaper excerpts and interviews and social media offerings to compose their angry refutations. They have reminded Chief Obasanjo of his lethargy during his eight years reign, and the many unfinished projects that probably prompted him to aim for tenure elongation. President Tinubu’s aides, President Buhari’s spokesmen, and Mr Malami himself will soon find out that President Obasanjo is his own chief salesman, and that he has contrived yet again to stay in the limelight by making incendiary statements and allegations. He knows from experience that should he write a tame, lifeless book, no one would pay attention: not newspapers, nor social media, nor his enemies, nor those in office whom he relentless tries to outshine or denigrate. 

  • Goodluck Jonathan’s confab regret

    Goodluck Jonathan’s confab regret

    Former president Goodluck Jonathan has been consistent in adumbrating reasons for the non-implementation of the 2014 National Conference report submitted in August of that year. The country was on the verge of the 2015 elections, he said, and with the defection of Speaker Aminu Tambuwal, the presidency lost control of the House of Representatives. Should he press ahead, with a possibly hostile parliament, it was unclear how he as president could drive the far-reaching reforms indicated by the report. In 2022, he gave these reasons for balking on implementing the conference report. During a condolence visit about two weeks ago to the family of Ayo Adebanjo, the late factional leader of the Yoruba socio-political group, Afenifere, who died at the age of 96, Dr Jonathan reiterated the reasons for not pressing ahead with the presentation of the confab report to the legislature.

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    The former president may have been consistent on the confab report controversy, but he left unanswered speculations that he convoked the national conference in the first instance because he wished to use it to wield electoral advantage over his opponents. He knew, his critics argued, that the report would be released not too far from the already scheduled national elections, and he hoped that if he started work on it, and it proved to be popular, he would be reelected to finish the good work on restructuring the country. It was a gambit, his opponents said, but one fraught with a lot of risks. In the end, though the Tambuwal defections he talked about wreaked havoc on the PDP and got in the way, the gamble did not pay off. Despite his consistent and even coherent argument on the confab report, few Nigerians think he was honest about the reasons for leaving it unimplemented.

  • The Ramadan school closures

    The Ramadan school closures

    Last week, the four northern states of Bauchi, Kebbi, Katsina and Kano closed down their schools for the Ramadan period. They cited extenuating reasons that seem on the surface genuine and practical. What the governors did not, however, say was why this unprecedented measure was never contemplated before, and why now. The schools are to reopen after the Ramadan fast. One month will not kill anybody or state, they seem to say. But there are fears it would hurt the education rhythm of both the affected states and the schoolchildren themselves, especially considering that secondary school students are registering and preparing for both NECO and WAEC examinations. With Easter and Sallah holidays around the corner, parents as well as educationists fear that any one-month break such as executed by the four states, in addition to the regular religious holidays, would seriously impact both the syllabus as well as examination performance.

    Unhelpfully, Christian and Muslim faith leaders have waded into and inadvertently religionised the controversy while attempting to tackle what is evidently an educational calendar problem. The Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) president, Archbishop Daniel Okoh, was first to comment. “Education is a fundamental right and the bedrock of progress,” he argued. “The closure of schools across these states, ranging from nursery to tertiary levels, for an extended period disrupts academic schedules and threatens the educational advancement of millions of students.” For a country hooked on holidays, including holidays shifted for falling on weekend dates, another one-month break could very well break the education camel’s back. Archbishop Okoh is right to be worried about the impact of the break. But he should have foreseen that a statement coming from him or CAN was liable to be misinterpreted as religious intolerance. They should have let other groups and associations handle the controversy.

    On the other side of the divide, the Muslim Rights Concern (MURIC) was not about to take prisoners. It suggested that any intervention by CAN was meddlesomeness borne out of religious intolerance. According to MURIC’s executive director, Prof. Ishaq Akintola: “Firstly, Ramadan is a completely Muslim issue. It involves no other faith. CAN should stay out of it. Secondly, Muslims are the overwhelming majority in those four states and the state governments in a democratic country like Nigeria should not deny the majority Muslims what they wish. Furthermore, those four states have given the Muslim majority what they desire most based on the principle of ‘the greatest happiness for the greatest number’.”

    Making sense of Prof. Akintola’s argument is hard. What binds majority and minority together is the constitution. While a majority anywhere may be tempted to have its way all the time, a minority can also litigate its rights, but both must find reconciliation under the rubric of the same constitution. Archbishop Okoh’s argument centred on the diminished quality of education availed Nigerian students on account of too many holidays. While he may be a faith leader, it is instructive that he argued from the point of view of educational quality. The eminent professor should have limited himself to arguments that make nonsense of the fears of compromised educational quality the CAN president restricted himself to. It would be hard, but who can tell whether with statistics the professor could not clinch the argument.

    Happily, no one has doubted the authority of the four states to close their schools for a month, even if it ended up being construed as a holiday that should have needed House of Assembly assent. The states can theoretically legislate the closure of schools for half of a year. But in the face of declining educational standards, not to talk of poor school enrolment, it hardly makes sense to embark on frivolous breaks. Most northern states, not especially excluding the four states in question, are faced with crisis in education excellence and literacy rates. They need decades to catch up with the South. But despite organising many conferences and seminars on the crisis, most northern governors have felt no sense of urgency to take bold and revolutionary steps to bridge educational gap with the South or even forge furiously ahead. In contrast to many ambitious and globally competitive theocratic jurisdictions, Nigeria’s core North governors have continued to treat the problem of education with levity. Surely, they must understand that the situation has become unacceptable, especially considering that they cannot hold the South or the rest of the world glued to one spot while they frolic as laggards. At a time when a sense of urgency to make their young ones competitive is desperately needed, it smacks of irresponsibility to be looking for populist reasons to further satisfy religious palates.

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    But if the four states – hopefully, there won’t be more – must enunciate such a superfluous measure, they owe their publics, Muslim majority and Christian minority as well as secular smaller minorities, a convincing explanation for the populist Ramadan break and an even more convincing plan of how they intend to make up for lost time so that the schoolchildren are not disadvantaged. That would be hard of course, for as everyone knows, many northern states have struggled with school enrolment estimated to be less than 50 percent. This may explain why insurgent groups and bandits have found ready recruits from a huge population of idle and uneducated youths.

    The argument against the Ramadan school break should not be about religious equalisation between Christians and Muslims. It is about the educational future of Nigerian children. And if care is not taken, like the sharia wildfire that caught up with more than a dozen northern states in the opening years of the Fourth Republic, this new ‘holiday’ may also catch fire in some other parts of the North. The South appreciates the educational urgency facing them, particularly infrastructural decay and standards; they won’t be tempted to be as rash and retrogressive as the four populist states in question, regardless of Prof. Akintola’s often tendentious and frenzied religious arguments.

  • Fasting and Kano Hisbah police

    Fasting and Kano Hisbah police

    If civil society organisations do not always disproportionately focus on government, governance and politics, they would be appalled by how routinely, under the guise of religion and federalism, some states abridge the rights of citizens. Last Monday, the deputy commander of the Kano State Hisbah (Morality police), Mujahid Aminudeen, announced the arrest of some 25 youths allegedly eating in public when they should be fasting. In his view, “It’s heartbreaking that in such a holy month meant for fasting, adult Muslims would be seen eating and drinking publicly. We won’t condone that, and that’s why we went out to make arrests…It is important to note that we don’t concern ourselves with non-Muslims.”

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    It is unlikely the arrested youths possessed the means to eat privately in order to avoid arrest. But there is nothing in any Nigerian law, secular or sharia, that compels fasting. It is a matter of choice. Hisbah has periodically expanded the frontiers of Nigerian laws, and no one at the federal level has cautioned or stopped them. Even if states make laws that supposedly undergird public morality, those laws must be consistent with the Nigerian constitution. And if civil society groups are too timid to secure relief for the arrested youths, the federal government must not turn a blind eye to the state tyranny.

  • Makinde’s inexpedient intervention in Osun

    Makinde’s inexpedient intervention in Osun

    Oyo State governor Seyi Makinde was a guest at the inauguration ceremony of the ‘newly elected’ LG chairmen in Osun State last Sunday, and was flanked by PDP Governors’ Forum chairman Bala Mohammed and Governor Ademola Adeleke. In his remarks, he sensationally warned the APC not to turn Osun State into ‘Wild, Wild West’. Said he without a hint of discomfort or hesitation: “We don’t want wild, wild west again. They (APC) should stay away from this zone. We want to provide dividends of democracy to our people peacefully. If anybody has a judgement, there is a procedure for enforcement of court decisions. It is illegal to resort to self-help. The era of resorting to federal might is long gone.”

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    In the early years of his first term, and despite being in the conservative PDP, Mr Makinde was widely seen as a promising shining light not only in the Southwest, but also in the country as a whole. That promise has sadly remained unfulfilled, perhaps because his initial colourfulness was in fact not anchored on anything ideological or systematic. That he was a guest of Mr Adeleke does not mean he must turn a blind eye to the substance of the case in Osun. In his remarks, he spoke about the rule of law. Yet, it is strange that he failed to see the contradictions between what he advocates and the abridged processes that led to the ‘election’ of the LG chairmen.

  • Osun LG poll, Adeleke and OSIEC

    Osun LG poll, Adeleke and OSIEC

    As predicted, the controversial Chairman of the State Independent Electoral Commission (OSIEC), Hashim Abioye, announced the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidates as winners of last week’s Osun State local government poll. Though Mr Abioye claimed that 18 political parties contested the poll, and that the PDP won all 30 chairmanship seats and 332 councillor seats, the reality is that the PDP largely contested against itself. The leading opposition party in the state, the All Progressives Congress (APC), boycotted the poll, citing the February 10 Court of Appeal judgement which validated the 2022 LG elections won by the APC. In the eyes of the opposition, there was no vacancy in the LGs, and the tenure of its elected LG officials would not end until October.

    In January 2024, the APC had taken Governor Ademola Adeleke to court for appointing Mr Abioye, alleged to be a PDP card-carrying member, as OSIEC chairman. Though the respondent claimed to have resigned his appointment last year, the complainants insisted he was still a PDP member in November 2023 when he was appointed. He was until his appointment the governor’s special adviser on legal matters. He did not resign his party membership until a few months ago. But while the case was still meandering its way through the judicial mill, the LG election was conducted against all legal advice and against the February Court of Appeal judgement. It is curious that commentators split generally across partisan lines in drawing their conclusions based on their partisan preferences. Thus, haters of the APC insist the 2022 elected LG officials were impostors, and their ‘forceful’ takeover of the LG secretariats undemocratic. On the other hand, loathers of Mr Adeleke and his party also insist the governor is a serial abuser of constitutional rule.

    Mr Adeleke has preemptively asked the ‘newly elected’ LG officials not to assume duty at the LG secretariats. He knows that there is no way he can get the law enforcement agencies to defend or protect the new chairmen when in the eyes of the law and according to the legal advice of the Attorney General of the Federation (AGF) no vacancies exist at the LGs. It is not certain whether the LGs have delinked their accounts from that of the state, whether, as the law provides, they have really become self-accounting. If they are yet to finalise that process, and if the federal government is still timid at withholding the funds of governors playing chicaneries with LGs, the Osun APC LG officials will have taken over the LG secretariats in vain. Worse, the illegal LG elections held last week and overwhelmingly ‘won’ by the PDP would stand by default. The federal government developed cold feet in the Rivers State LG poll before the Supreme Court restored sanity late last week; it would be a disaster and a setback for democracy to feign indifference in the controversial Osun LG poll case.

    Last Saturday’s Osun LG poll was a reflection of Mr Adeleke’s political desperation. His reelection is not due until around the middle of 2026, and the tenure of the current LG office holders will expire in October 2025. He will still be governor by the time the next legitimate LG poll is called, and he will probably still put up a good showing, that is if he does not win outright. Osun voters have not proved to be very discriminating or avid pursuers of enlightened self-interest. They routinely cut their nose to spite their face, and would as soon commit regicide as embark on political hara-kiri. That Mr Adeleke has not been spectacular in office, nor shown any remarkable capacity to innovate and embark on futuristic developmental projects does not mean he would not get enough impressionable Osun people to ignore his dancing jamborees to vote for him or his candidates. Had he let the LG poll to hold as it should later this year, he would probably still have won, but maybe not by the absurdly huge margin Nigerians have resigned themselves to accommodating in the states.

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    The problem with last Saturday’s Osun LG poll is not the already litigated PDP membership of the OSIEC chairman, Mr Abioye, or the Court of Appeal judgement indicating that the 2022 elected LG officials were legitimate, or even the firm and unambiguous opinion of the AGF on the controversial new LG poll. The real problem is that Mr Adeleke, citing the constitution and mouthing democratic principles, went ahead to defy reason and conduct a poll certain to be discredited in the eyes of the law. His main ambition, it seems, is to first win reelection by any means possible and then try to clear the legal mess and complication the latest LG poll might bring. He may be fixated on dancing, even in inappropriate circumstances, but he is not slow in understanding the country’s political dynamics. He knows that fellow governors riding the storms in their states manage to do so by defying everything about the constitution and the rule of law. And he thinks that if he does not play truancy with the system, in the most aggressive and reckless way possible, he could be brushed aside.

    OSIEC chairman Mr Abioye will eventually be judicially declared illegitimate, and last Saturday’s LG poll will not stand. But the impunity in Osun, like in some other states, will remain pervasive in direct correlation to the federal government’s reluctance to defend the rule of law. It is not clear how long the feds will keep yielding inches and yards and miles to malfeasant politicians in the name of democracy, but if the government does not draw a red line in the sand, perhaps starting from Osun, if it does not financially empower the 2022 elected LG officials with statutory allocation, then it would in fact be complicit in the weakening and corrosion of Nigerian democracy. The feds should take a stand rather than continue to genuflect.