Category: Idowu Akinlotan

  • US, Russia and the Syrian dilemma

    US, Russia and the Syrian dilemma

    Syria’s troubles were inspired by the fallout of the Arab Spring that began in Tunisia in December 2010. From the time Syria got embroiled in the Arab Spring in January 2011 till today, more than 200,000 people are reported to have died. Yet, the end of the crisis is not in sight. Instead, thanks to foreign involvement by Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) militants, United States and its allies, Russia and Iran, the Syrian crisis is festering badly and threatening to spiral out of control. One of the chief reasons for the stalemate is of course the fact that the ruling family, the al-Assads, belongs to the minority Alawite tribe, which is about 10-12 percent of the 23 million Syrian people.

    The active entrance of Russia into the crisis, particularly its bombing raids, are predicated on two main grounds: the fear that al-Assad’s fall was imminent; and the hesitations of the US and its allies. Indeed, under President Barack Obama, the US has appeared to be in retreat in the Middle East. America’s Sunni allies are increasingly frustrated by Mr Obama’s indecisiveness, while its Shiite enemies are increasingly emboldened. Sensing that Mr Obama was unduly too calculating and reluctant to deploy American power in the restive region, and even beyond, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, inspiring a Russian revival, has become more assertive.

    It is not certain that Russia will necessarily succeed in Syria where the US and its allies have appeared to fail, but Mr Putin, though a little imprudent, is determined to ensure the survival of Russian ally, President Bashar al-Assad. Right from the presidency of George W. Bush, US policies in the Middle East have yielded ground to the less bashful and more pugnacious Mr Putin. That push has seen the Russians expand and consolidate their borders in some of the former Soviet Republics, including Georgia and Ukraine, and are now expanding more confidently into the Middle East. With the American society at war with itself over racism, loss of religious values, and shooting madness, the US is gradually losing ground and influence globally, and in particular in the Middle East, as the world’s policeman and moral custodian. That decline will continue for some time to come, propelled more by its internal contradictions than by external pressures.

    Meanwhile, sadly, Syria is being battered relentlessly by foreign forces with different motives and competing objectives. Mr al-Assad should have read the handwriting on the wall in 2011 and emplaced a transition to a new, more vigorous and open society. That chance is now lost, perhaps forever. The precipitous and unguarded collapse of Muammar Gaddafi of Libya consequent upon the Arab Spring and the deliberate orchestration of the fall of Saddam Hussein of Iraq by the US predisposed both countries to anomie. The dilemma for Syria is that, as Mr Putin argues, should Mr al-Assad fall, there are no guarantees the transition can be managed well. Yet, as long as he remains in power, peace cannot be assured. As many analysts have also argued, the rising influence of Iran in the region and the anomie in the Middle East are a product of the diplomatic folly and miscalculations of the US.

  • PDP gets a head  start on 2019 race

    PDP gets a head start on 2019 race

    After inquiring into why it lost the last election disastrously, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) post-election review committee is reported to have zoned the presidential ticket to the North. It makes sense. Though that step is coming many months late, that is probably the only way to counter the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), which has so far been unable to rein in its lawmakers and other obstreperous members. With their man, Deputy Senate President Ike Ekweremadu, still having a foothold in the upper echelons of the Senate, the PDP is not really out of power. They will consolidate the small advantage they have and move to higher ground well entrenched and reinforced.

    On the other hand, with President Muhammadu Buhari still embracing a feeble approach to power and politics, and with Senate President Bukola Saraki seemingly taunting his party, the APC may have unwittingly surrendered the head start to the PDP. PDP lawmakers and rebel APC lawmakers with PDP background have somewhere to go if the APC unravels — they can always identify with the PDP. But core APC politicians, elected or appointed, whether ACN or CPC or ANPP, have nowhere to go. Will they recognise the danger of extermination staring them in the face and proactively take effective measures before they are doomed?

  • If Arase won’t do something about the police…

    If Arase won’t do something about the police…

    Nigeria is daily inundated with stories of police malfeasance, of so-called accidental discharge, extrajudicial murder, trigger-happy shootings and attendant cover-ups, torture, human rights abuse, and on top of these, ineffective policing. The police, it is clear, are a poorly equipped and poorly incentivised federal establishment. Indeed if states, which exercise little or no control over the security organisation, were not subsidising the operations of the police, it would in all likelihood have collapsed. But poor funding does not justify a large part of police malfeasance. Within the constraints of their operations, it is still possible to run a fairly humanised and fairly responsive police. They may not respond promptly to crime emergencies such as kidnapping and armed robbery because of infrastructural shortcomings, but they can at least control what happens at their stations where distressed citizens present their challenges.

    There are three ways to handle the declining efficiency and poor image of the police. First, the federal government must declare an emergency in policing to stem the infrastructural decay and operational and attitudinal rot in the Police Force. The government cannot pretend not to appreciate the abysmal level to which the police have sunk. The police need to be restructured, adequately funded and properly equipped —  just as efforts are being made to retrain and equip the military — and a firm and organised system of accountability must be instituted. It is not enough for offending policemen to shoot and kill indiscriminately, sometimes for as little as N100, and be dismissed and prosecuted. What of the dead, and the many who may yet die if the malady is not checked? Have dismissal and prosecution of errant policemen deterred other officers from committing casual murder in the name of the state? Clearly the problem is more fundamental than the pirouette of malfeasance, dismissal and prosecution. Senior police officers must be made accountable for the behaviour of their men.

    Second, the police leadership must find innovative ways of running the law enforcement organisation and enforcing discipline, including reliving officers of their jobs if they cannot control their men, to prevent the kind of appalling behaviour and impunity now rampant in the Force. The federal government may be reluctant to impose innovation on the police. That is why the police have an Inspector-General. Mr Solomon Arase should sit down with his men and other brilliant and knowledgeable experts to fashion out a way of funding, reorienting and rebuilding the police. The present system is absolutely untenable. Mr Arase must of course understand that if the continuous bad press the police are receiving does not change, it makes his leadership equally untenable. But he must not resign himself to the present situation. Where others have failed, let him prove he can be a success. Despite the handicaps, let him be determined to leave a great and enduring legacy commensurate with his high educational attainments.

    Third, the most practical option — and sooner rather than later, the country will come round to this — is to decentralise the police away from federal to state control, and also rejig the revenue allocation formula to reflect the new reality until such a time that economic federalism will be instituted. The fact is that in the past few decades, both the police leadership and the federal government have appeared to lack the will and ingenuity to run the police. It is perhaps time the Buhari administration summoned the courage to join hands with the National Assembly to recast the police as a state institution. The federal government can no longer fund the institution, and obviously cannot even think for it. It is time others attempted a more imaginative approach. The country is already witnessing paralysis in the police. But paralysis is simply not feasible in the present circumstances of deteriorating security situation and police impunity.

  • Still on Kogi election

    Still on Kogi election

    Many Kogites and non-Kogites who reacted to this column’s conclusions on the November governorship poll in Kogi State are in a quandary whom to support. While they admit that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Governor Idris Wada is less than effective as the state’s chief executive, they also acknowledge that the All Progressives Congress (APC) standard-bearer, Abubakar Audu, has been unable to make more friends on account of what they describe as his stuffiness and arrogance. Some rejoinders say it is difficult, if not impossible, to pick either of the two candidates in the poll. But neutrality is not an option. If a part of the electorate refuses to vote, another part will vote, and one way or the other, a choice will be made, and one of the two leading candidates will win.

    Even if it is acknowledged that the two standard-bearers are uninspiring, a careful consideration of their weaknesses and strengths should still help voters determine whom to back. Mr Wada may not be abrasive and impatient, or fiery and uncouth, but few dispute his lethargy and general lack of innovativeness. He is sensitive and won’t make you feel bad in his presence, but he is almost wholly unable to make you feel good by reason of the state’s collapsed infrastructure and hopelessness about the future. The abrasive and financially finicky Prince Audu, on the other hand, is believed to be unable to make the Kogi electorate feel good in his presence, though his supporters argue he has changed, but he makes the ordinary Kogite feel good about the state on account of his passion for development and modernisation.

    In short, in November, the Kogi voter will have to make a choice between pleasant personality and its concomitant underdevelopment on one hand, and unpleasant personality and development on the other hand. The choice is grim  and vexing, but it is unavoidable and must be made. In making the choice, however, the state must determine whether in the case of Mr Wada they can keep his pleasantness beyond the next four years and profit from it if he wins, an unlikely proposition, or whether they can limit the underdevelopment certain to accompany his victory to only his four years in office should he win. And in the case of Prince Audu, the voter must ask what economic and social value his pleasantness confer on the state in four years should he win, as opposed to what his developmental drive would bring not only for four irreplaceable years but also far beyond, especially given the fact that even today, more than any of his successors, his imprint is still solidly embossed on the state’s development.

    There is no ambiguity in the choice before Kogi. This column finds bad manners offensive, but it is not confused as to how to proceed in the face of the two choices facing Kogi. Prince Audu will woefully fail a pleasantness contest with Mr Wada; but it is hard to see the latter winning the more crucial and impactful developmental test with the former. Kogi will in November decide whether they want development or they want their ego massaged. If they choose ego over development in the face of the appalling realities of poverty and infrastructural collapse of the state, they will find it difficult to tell Nigerians they are not gluttons for punishment or that the shame of underdevelopment and poverty has not afflicted them enough. In four years, Kogi will be rid of both Mr Wada and Prince Audu, whoever wins between the two. But in four years, they will either be better for their choice or worse for it.

    A few rejoinders to this column also argue that Kogi West senatorial district peopled mainly by the Okun Yoruba will at best split their vote for the APC candidate. The reasons, they say, are that Prince Audu, in his customary brashness, once insulted the people and chiefs of the area, and that the politics of running mate and zoning of senatorial positions have pitted the Yagba side against their Okun brothers in Kabba/Bunu/Ijumu side. The rejoinders, however, admitted that of all the three men who have governed the state since 1999, Prince Audu’s government was the most impactful in Okunland. Indeed, they admit that while former governor Ibrahim Idris managed to establish a little presence in Okunland, Mr Wada has done nothing anyone taking the trouble of remembering. If in about four years Mr Wada did nothing for the Okun people, when he knew he would be needing their votes for another four years, what are the guarantees he would do something major and significant in the next four years when he would not be needing them thereafter?

    Notwithstanding the lack of sophistication of Okunland politics, it is still unlikely they will be confused as to whom to vote for. They will be reluctant to compound the historic error they made in campaigning for the new state of Kogi (created 1991), in which they found themselves unexpectedly outmanoeuvered and outgunned by the Igala from the Kogi East senatorial district. They will recognise that notwithstanding the uninspiring choices they face between Mr Wada and Prince Audu, their best bet is to throw in their lot with the man who spread development to their area, who had a great developmental track record, and who in 2011, had he been governor, would probably have supported the federal government in siting the only federal university in the state (Federal University Lokoja) in Kabba, the unofficial headquarters of Okunland. Prince Audu is still the Okun people’s best bet for power rotation and fairness. Mr wada is of no value to Kogi West.

    The Okun people will likely settle their differences over the zoning of the senatorial position, and will overcome their misgivings over the running mate issue, especially the false and misleading dichotomy over native and foreign Okun sons and daughters. They will know which side their bread is buttered, and they will reach deep into their souls and their illustrious past and do what is right. If they fail, as their contemporary fractiousness suggests, they will be compounding the error of Kogi State creation, and foreclosing a bright future for coming generations. Already, present day Okun people blame their fathers for the lopsidedness of state creation, dismayed by their forebears’ lack of foresight; it is important that a historic redress should take place now to correct a previous historic error.

    A few rejoinders also suggest that President Muhammadu Buhari would be contradicting his anti-corruption agenda by visiting Kogi to campaign for the APC candidate, Prince Audu. This is sheer piffle. President Buhari is not the law courts. Not only has Prince Audu not been found guilty of wrongdoing, the case, which has been on since 2013,, is a testament to the government’s prosecutorial mystery than Prince Audu’s adeptness at undermining or frustrating the law. President Buhari will put in context the more than N10bn alleged to have been stolen by Prince Audu at a time when the state’s annual budget under his tenure was considerably less than N30bn. In addition, Prince Audu was validly selected by the party to be its standard-bearer. The president will not fight that outcome, nor turn his back on his party’s ambitions.

    This column argues that based on Mr Wada’s poor performance and Prince Audu’s substantial developmental projects, the contest is unlikely to be indecisive. If the contest is based on whether Mr Wada is polite or Prince Audu is uncouth, then, of course, Kogi may be too far gone in errant politics than outsiders imagine. The state should keep its eye on the ball and vote sensibly for the sake of future generations. Kogi West, it seems, may finally do what is right. Kogi Central also has the capacity to disentangle the twisted skein with which Wada’s supporters seek to hamstring the state. And Kogi East, where Mr Wada hails from, is reportedly miffed by the governors inattentiveness to their pains. Mr Wada may get plenty of votes from people impressed by the comely and inviting visage of politicians, and from voters who can’t seem to appreciate the fundamentals of politics and balloting, but the votes will likely only be sufficient to spare him humiliation, not give him victory.

    Both the APC and Prince Audu should go out and reassure the electorate of his bona fides, of his newfound delicate manners, of his readiness to work and to respect the people’s rights, for the country and the state have changed so radically that former methods will get him into trouble, and of the long list of substantial work he did both in 1992 and 1999. He must resist provocations, and he must understand that if anyone is supporting him today despite his bad press, that support is based on nothing else than his developmental and financial management records. Mr Wada is not an option, and neutrality is a sterile and foolish exercise. Kogi should vote right in November and save themselves the humiliating embarrassment of being counted as one of Nigeria’s leading laggards.

     

  • Kogi 2015: Wada versus Audu

    Kogi 2015: Wada versus Audu

    Barring any legal upset, Kogi State will be electing its next governor in November. The choice is between the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Idris Wada, who is the current governor, and the All Progressives Congress (APC) Abubakar Audu, who was twice governor on the platforms of the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) between 1990 and 2003 and the defunct National Republican Convention (NRC) between 1992 and 1993 under the Gen Ibrahim Babangida transition programme. Mr Wada is a retired pilot, and Prince Audu a banker and accountant. Both will lock horns brutally and fiercely in about two months from now to determine who will run the affairs of the largely silent and bucolic state for the next four years.

    There is some idle chatter that the election will be close and the outcome uncertain for two simple reasons: first, that Prince Audu is proud and insufferable, and Mr Wada lethargic and clueless; and second, that the latter is an incumbent determined to deploy the power of incumbency remorselessly, and the former has taken a Lagos-based Kogite with uncertain electoral value as running mate. Those who make such permutations are obsessed with the leisure of theorisation. Not only will the electoral outcome be clear and unambiguous, it will not be close, no matter what partisans wish. Though it is not clear who Mr Wada will pick as his running mate — whether the same Yomi Awoniyi, currently the deputy governor, or someone else — whoever he picks is unlikely to add value to his ticket in excess of his own personal failings and liabilities.

    Neither Kogites nor the APC, nor yet the rest of the country, should be anxious about the November poll. It will proceed with clockwork precision once it begins, and end in unassailable victory for Prince Audu and his APC. In the last Kogi governorship poll, this column had reluctantly endorsed Prince Audu and predicted his victory. Sources close to the theatre of action in the last poll swore that Prince Audu won, but had his victory upturned through one of the boldest and craziest electoral subterfuge ever. This column also reluctantly endorsed Muhammadu Buhari for the presidency and predicted the APC candidate’s victory. The Buhari victory was undisputable, notwithstanding the damnable scheme by Godsday Orubebe to ruffle feathers and upset the apple cart. Endorsing candidates and foretelling victories based on confident analysis and factual projections are the forte of Palladium. Kogi 2015 will not be different. APC will win not because this column is partisan, but because the objective conditions on the ground are so plain that the indications of victory are unmistakable.

    Prince Audu has his drawbacks, liabilities that were exposed in this place when this columnist first endorsed him in 2011. In his first coming as governor in 1999 under the Fourth Republic, Prince Audu was so imperious that when he sat on a chair, everyone around him in the fiefdom he had turned Kogi into sat on the floor. And his brocades were so starched that not a few people hazarded, perhaps with a hint of exaggeration, that they were capable of lacerating the skin of the unwary and audacious politician or aide who flailed an arm near him. Prince Audu, in those days, was evidently proud, disdainful and annoyingly condescending. Has a long time in the political wilderness sobered and tempered him enough to earn him electoral recall and win this column’s endorsement? Prince Audu has changed, it must be admitted, though it is uncertain whether he has changed enough to earn a quieter, more dignifying sobriquet.

    Both in 1992 and 1999, Prince Audu was an innovative and hard working governor, full of programmes and brimful of modernising projects, with superior taste, paradoxically cultured outlook, and a productively restless and boisterous disposition. He initiated the Kogi State University, Anyigba and laid a fascinating architectural master plan for it, making it a beautiful campus. He built roads, housing estates, hospitals and schools, and had he undergirded these achievements with a lofty futuristic vision, he might have earned a top spot in the state’s Hall of Fame. What probably elevated his achievements and attenuated his weaknesses was the simple fact that both his successors, the untalented and insular hotelier, Ibrahim Idris, and the excessively do-nothing Idris Wada, a former pilot of questionable judgement, stultified the state’s development almost to the point of rigor mortis.

    One-on-one, Prince Audu will beat Mr Wada in their Kogi East senatorial district, their birth place — as indeed he beat him even in the last poll — where the latter lost both his polling booth and ward. Elsewhere, especially in Kogi West where the Okun people come from, and where the Ekinrin-Adde native and APC governorship running mate Hon. Biodun Faleke hails from, Prince Audu will run away with clear dominance, even if Mr Wada were to stick to Mr Awoniyi, also from Kogi West, as his running mate. It is argued that Hon. Faleke is a foreigner to Kogi politics because of his long-standing involvement in Lagos politics, and that both the Okun people and other Kogites might reject him. Any thought of rejection collapsed last week as Hon. Faleke, a member of the House of Representatives, received what some observers described as indescribably large  turnout of Okun people in Kabba when they welcomed him a few days ago into the fray. With his exposure and pedigree in progressives politics in Lagos where he had won many elections, and the clear support he receives from the APC national leadership, having been Lagos coordinator of the Buhari/Osinbajo campaign, he is bringing to the ticket unmatched advantage.

    In Kogi Central, the votes may not even be divided as some are speculating. The reason, again, is simple. Kogi abhors being in the cold. In 2003, it turned PDP-ward from ANPP for obvious reasons, and has appeared so far to stick to that unprofitable option. APC is the ruling party in Abuja, and nearly all of the North, minus Gombe and Taraba, have berthed in APC. In November, Kogi will enter the mainstream willy-nilly, especially because Mr Wada, like his predecessor, Ibrahim Idris, has been one of the worst disappointments among Nigerian governors. He is generally judged as incompetent, slow, quiet in a sepulchral manner, and averse to hard work and visioning. There is indeed no trail of him anywhere, not even in Lokoja, the state capital, where he has not built one world-class road or facility. He is as anonymous in Lokoja as he is unknown in all of Kogi West, Kogi Central and to some extent, Kogi East, where he is impervious to their yearnings. As certain as day follows night, Kogi will turn APC in November and vote in Messrs Audu and Faleke. The last presidential poll in which President Buhari was voted in was Kogi’s harbinger of change. That change will be consummated in two months.

    Bookmakers think former president Goodluck Jonathan may draw sympathy votes for Governor Seriake Dickson in the December Bayelsa governorship poll, but in Kogi, neither Mr Wada’s Igala people nor anyone of substance for that matter will draw any sympathy votes for the governor. He is alone, stripped bare, unaided by the radically morphing politics of Kogi and the spirit of the times. Kogites may sniff at talk of Prince Audu’s behavioural conversion to urbaneness, but voting in November, they will remember all he did between 1992 and 1993, and between 1999 and 2003, and hold their noses gingerly and vote for him with a little foreboding, but nonetheless enthusiastically. The same voters will concede that Mr Wada is not nearly as insufferable as Prince Audu, but they will gnash their teeth that in almost four years he folded his arms and snoozed away the lazy days as the state went slam bang downhill. They will keep everything open —their noses, eyes, ears, etc. — and elbow him out viciously, remorselessly and joyously.

    Mr Wada may have led Kogi State to collect over N50bn bailout fund from the Central Bank when he is owing only August salary, prompting many to speculate to what end he planned to put the money, whether developmental or political. Local governments are owed about a year’s salary, and pensioners more than eight months. But N50bn is a lot of money, in fact the highest bailout any state is billed to collect. Whatever chicanery Mr Wada may be up to, the November poll will not be about money or soapbox theatrics. It will be about legacy, one thing Mr Wada does not have even a modicum of, and about liberation, which his enervated policies cannot stop.

  • Buhari presidency more exciting than first thought

    Buhari presidency more exciting than first thought

    Senate President Bukola Saraki will be the first person to tell anyone who accuses the Buhari presidency of dullness of making a terrible mistake. He should know. Since Dr Saraki’s enthronement in early June as Senate President, or more accurately, since his seizure of the Senate throne, he has not had a day of respite. He is unlikely to have a minute of respite anytime soon. The Nigerian presidency is a very strong one indeed. And while everyone, including his party members and feared federal agencies, is busy reading the president’s body language and second-guessing him, Dr Saraki has chosen to construct a contrasting and countervailing body language of his own, hoping presumptuously that the president would read it and probably subordinate his own beneath the Senate President’s. There is no other way to explain the stalemate in the Senate or make sense of the cold-shoulder the president has given him.

    Except Dr Saraki himself, perhaps no one else knows what emboldens the Senate President to chart what he whimsically and idealistically describes as legislative independence. Might the president’s “I belong to everybody and belong to nobody” inauguration euphoria be responsible for Dr Saraki’s chutzpah? Or, having fought many battles and won handily, including familial ones, the Senate President has begun to feel invincible and ecstatic. Whatever the reasons, Dr Saraki is standing pat and daring all-comers. He will fight in the hills of the EFCC; and he will brawl in the plains and fields of the Code of Conduct Tribunal. He will neither retreat nor surrender. Nor, apocalyptically, will the president. There is in fact no disputing the fact that on the Senate front, President Buhari will keep the country electrified and entertained.

    Furthermore, while the president refuses to shirk any battle, keeping both the country and his enemies riveted on his sanguinary pastimes, he is himself providing more excitement than his languid frame and dour look seem capable of giving at face value. He may be quiet, reserved and distant, yet his sometimes forlorn look belies the searing comicalness and pugnacious vivaciousness lying behind the uncompromising facade. “Back in Nigeria,” he told his bemused US audience during his July visit, “they already call me Baba-go-slow.” He is, it seems, capable of the most withering self-deprecating humour, indeed more enthralling than former president Olusegun Obasanjo’s unending bucolic and sometimes prurient exclamations. During electioneering, his running mate’s surname was a surprising tongue-twister to him; but after inauguration, even calling the name of his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), got inextricably intertwined with his former party, the Congress of Progressive Change (CPC).

    As the country reveled in his magnificent juxtapositions, out streamed his interminable gaffes. He would discriminate between those who voted him massively and those who were niggardly with their votes, he intoned, with no one sure whether he meant it the way he spoke it — brutally and maliciously frank. Reflecting his considerable unease with scheming politicians, he disclosed in France last week that he was reluctant to form his cabinet, for ministers were after all superfluous and zestful makers of noise. He probably meant it. To many Nigerians, it was a Freudian slip; but to him, it was an obscenely honest statement that perfectly mirrored his worldview. When he summons his first Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting, how would he look the superfluous noisemakers in the face? With the same sang-froid disposition that has characterised his neo-democratic experience? Or with the icy, expressionless stare those who voted for him seem to approve of?

    Despite himself, the reed thin President Buhari will provide capital mirth for Nigerians. He is tinkering with the economy and seems to be recording success without an economic blueprint; and he has midwifed inexplicable fortitude and quietude in the polity, again without a political blueprint. For all anyone cares, he may soon mediate a new social ethos without paying attention to its building blocks. What is, however, evident is that he is giving the country things, to the delight and entertainment of every patriot, and to the frustration of the nitpicking Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The country is in for four years of Buhari drama: let the playwrights ink their pens, the caricaturists sharpen their pencils, and the satirists their wit.

  • Europe’s migrant refugee crisis: Re-enacting Mfecane

    Europe’s migrant refugee crisis: Re-enacting Mfecane

    In his controversial analyses of African affairs, former president Olusegun Obasanjo often puts on scholarly airs on account of his experience in government. He had supervised an activist foreign policy during his rule as Nigerian military head of state between 1976 and 1979, and had taken more than a passing interest in foreign affairs as elected president between 1999 and 2007. Now, he feels supremely qualified to write disquisitions on African and world affairs. But with the passing of notable and cerebral African leaders like Julius Nyerere, Kenneth Kaunda, Kwame Nkrumah, Jomo Kenyatta, Leopold Senghor and Nelson Mandela, among others, the African analytical field is today populated by less gifted rulers and experts than the world average.

    In a statement he issued last week on Europe’s refugee/migrant crisis and the Muammaer Gaddafi factor, Chief Obasanjo said, inter alia: “It is time for the international community and particularly African leaders to take a good look at the factors responsible for the death and destruction in the Mediterranean by illegal migration of youths from Africa and address the causes in an honest, responsible, humane and holistic manner rather than the current futile attempt to half-heartedly deal with the symptoms rather than the cause…Although there are strenuous efforts to deny it, it is undeniable that the vacuum created by the lack of effective governance in Libya precipitated by the direct action of Western powers is responsible for the current anarchy in that country. The current inflow of African refugees into Europe from Libya is a direct consequence…The government in Libya which in 2000 acted humanely and responsibly to stem the outflow of illegal migrants to Europe has been replaced by unconscionable bandits and terrorists who have forcibly seized the instruments of state to facilitate human trafficking and illegal migration for their own material benefit.”

    Apart from establishing a spurious direct link between Mr Gaddafi’s fall and the repeated waves of migration to Europe, Chief Obasanjo also attributes the crisis to mainly economic and conflict factors. Not only did he misread the migrant crisis from the Libyan perspective, in the process betraying his indefensible support for the late Libyan leader, he also believes that Western powers were short-sighted in their machinations against Mr Gaddafi. By Chief Obasanjo’s acknowledgement, however, the migrant problem predated the fall of Mr Gaddafi, stating that about 17,000 Nigerians were repatriated from Libya in 2000. Economic factors explain only a little part of the crisis. In propping up the insurrection in Libya, Western powers merely responded to the looming stalemate in the Libyan war of resistance and liberation, a war accompanied by extreme butchery, a war triggered more by the widening gyre of the Arab Spring than by Western machinations. More importantly, the migrant crisis the world is witnessing today is less a product of African crises than Iraqi/Syrian civil wars. Even though numbers are still being compiled, most of the migrants come, in descending order, from Syria, Western Balkans, South Asia, some parts of Africa, notably Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan, and Afghanistan. Syria accounts for the highest number of migrants.

    Indeed, the altruism Chief Obasanjo read into the actions and responses of Mr Gaddafi to the illegal immigration of some Africans in the opening years of the 21st century is absolutely misplaced. Mr Gaddafi repeatedly tried to profit from the illegal migrations, seeing it as a form of punishment for Western powers than a depressing manifestation of poverty and misrule on the continent. In 2010, for instance, Mr Gaddafi attempted openly and shamelessly to coax $4bn out of Western powers in exchange for his country’s help in stemming the flow of migrants and refugees.

    The quality of leadership and statesmanship has declined all over the world. In Africa, it is worse. Chief Obasanjo’s arguments show why Nigeria has never had any significant impact on the course of continental history, let alone world history. European leaders struggle to comprehend the migrant crisis, and seek ways to respond to it. Their efforts, though grounded in deeply historical understanding of the dynamic interplay of social, political and economic forces, have been desultory. Nigerians must be wary of Chief Obasanjo’s contributions to the crisis. His contributions simplify and misrepresent the process. They fail to take into account the forces shaping the Middle East. And they fail to even take cognisance of the undercurrents of African history.

    Contrary to Chief Obasanjo’s sanctimonious anger, Europe has been more dispassionate and less emotive about the migrant crisis, though it fears its economies and societies could be overwhelmed. One of the reasons is that for a continent that experienced two major wars barely 22 years apart in the last century, they are no strangers to mass movements of people across borders and sometimes across continents. They are familiar with the pressures that accompany massive dislocations occasioned by wars and economic meltdown. Importantly, unlike Chief Obasanjo and many others who fail to accurately contextualise the migrant crisis in Europe, European leaders are familiar with epochal migrations that have taken place over more than two millennia.

    Yet, African history boasts of one of the most impactful migration crises in the world: the early 19th century Mfecane (interpreted: crushing or scattering) or Difaqane in the Sesotho language, which convulsed the Zulu people and other around them in Southern Africa. No student of African history can fail to appreciate the chaos and mass movements triggered by the Mfecane between 1814 and 1840, and perhaps up to 1850s. Not only did the Mfecane cause mass movements and misery, as Europe, Syria, Iraq and others are experiencing, it also depopulated the Southern African region, influenced the formation of nations in that region, and paved the way for predatory colonial adventures that redrew and distorted the borders and histories of the indigenous populations. The Mfecane took place in the general area between the Drakensberg mountains, Kalahari Desert and Limpopo River, and was triggered by a host of factors ranging from land pressures, the nation-building wars of Shaka the Zulu, long distance trade, expansion of the presence of Cape Whites, decline of many indigenous kingdoms in the region, struggle between powerful kings, to wit, Sobhuza, Zwide, Dingiswayo, Moshoeshoe and Mzilikazi around the Pongola River and beyond. Then, of course, came the brutal and ambitious Shaka the Zulu with his new technique of warfare, and the region was never the same again. It is estimated that the region was depopulated to the tune of about one or two million people, though the estimates are controversial.

    Chief Obasanjo’s so-called deal with Mr Gaddafi is nothing but an awkward attempt at self-promotion, a disingenuous attempt to draw public attention to a hitherto unknown part of his public service years. The Libyan factor in the ongoing migrant crisis in Europe is minute. The main triggers are the heedless United States invasion of Iraq in combination with the civil war in Syria, itself a consequence of the Arab Spring, and the seething and endless struggle between the Sunni and Shiite power groups in the region. The vacuum created by the deposition of Saddam Hussein reopened the conflict between the more populous Shiites, who were kept out of the power loop for decades, and Mr Hussein’s minority Sunnis who ruled through the Baathist political party. The US invasion and the clumsy and unreflective foisting of Western-type democracy naturally tilted the scale in favour of the majority Shiites, paradoxically backed by the hated Iran. The Sunnis, with powerful backers from other Sunni Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, felt embittered and are believed to have acquiesced in the formation first of al-Qaeda in Iraq and then ISIS.

    To a wise ruler outside the region, the entire Middle East and surrounding states are a political caveat. The struggle between the Sunnis and Shiites is expected to continue for a long time, and both the internal structures of the conflict and the outcomes will not be determined by popular democracy, but by force, as Yemen is showing. Invading Iraq was unwise, and it is not clear how the US committed that egregious blunder. How to recapture the escaped genie will be the preoccupation of the world in their effort to resolve the migrant crisis putting massive pressures on the European Union (EU). Millions have already been uprooted in the war-ridden region, nearly on the scale of the Mfecane. And the impact is felt in wider areas than the revolutionary movements that savaged Southern Africa in the opening decades of the 19th century.

    There are suggestions that the crisis should be tackled from the root. This is sensible but difficult, for the monster unleashed by the Syrian and Iraqi wars will not be easy to subdue. The oxygen upon which they depend will be difficult to eliminate. Russia views the conflict in the region as an extension of the Cold War, as a competition in which flexing of muscles could not be ruled out. Russia has been a long-standing ally of Syria, and in fact has a naval base located in the Syrian Mediterranean Port of Tartus, and is now actively involved in the Syrian civil war. It is not clear how the Russian approach would conduce to peace in that region, or curb the flow of refugees to Europe. If anything, the ISIS war may even intensify. It is true neither the US nor Europe has a clue how the complicated war and migrant crisis can be resolved. Both are loth to sustain Syrian leader Bashir al-Assad in power, for that is what it would amount to if Western powers put boots on the ground to fight ISIS. And they are equally wary of destroying ISIS because of the unintended consequence of strengthening Iran and its Shiite regional allies. Russia is not incommoded by any such considerations. It wants Mr Assad to be part of the resolution of the crisis in Syria, and is anxious to retain not only its influence in that country but also its base. Russia’s resupply of Syria may therefore prolong and complicate the war in Syria, and by implication the migrant crisis.

    Neither the Mfecane nor the current migration from ISIS-held territories was the first mass movement in history, as novel as the migrant crisis may be to the present generation. The controversial First or Second millennium exodus of probably less than a million Jews believed to have fled Egypt (Pop, 3.5m people at the time) is another example. The wars of Genghis Khan, Mao Zedong’s 1934 Long March, and the flight of Protestants from Europe to the New World (America) also triggered dislocations and movements. This column has argued many times that the world has not witnessed the end of the redrawing of borders. As wars, economic and climate pressures occur, people will undertake willing or forced migrations, some harrowing, and others adventurous. This generation is indeed privileged to witness a movement of the European migrant crisis proportion, and to document and analyse the story. But the analyses must be sober and unaffected by the self-promotion and romanticism of the kind dished out by Chief Obasanjo last week.

    The Syrian and Iraqi civil wars will not be resolved in a hurry, notwithstanding the best efforts of Russia, US and Europe. Resolving the wars is beyond the ken of Arabs and Persian peoples. The struggle between Sunni and Shiites in the Middle East will also continue for years, with perhaps occasional abatement. Iran will probably continue to grow into a major regional power, constitute itself into a specific and pressing threat to Israel, holding strongly to and nurturing the ambition to colonise the entire region as its Persian forebears did, as the Ottomans executed, and as Alexander the Great also accomplished with great flourish. It is a fallacy to think that multilateral security organisations such as the United Nations can keep the peace for a long time. In the face of national ambitions, empire-building objectives and economic pressures, such international arrangements are bound to wilt or collapse. The current migrant crisis merely foreshadows these frightening and destabilising possibilities.

    This is, however, not to suggest that efforts should not be made to tackle the terrible nightmare. Chief Obasanjo narrowed the search for solution and anchored it on a wrong misunderstanding of the forces at play and the historicity of the phenomenon. It is important not to lose sight of where the migrant crisis is coming from. Importantly, the dynamics of the mass migrations and the underlying forces that are shaping them must be properly understood and contextualised in order to find a solution, not the ‘lasting’ solution Chief Obasanjo idealistically conjured. There is, however, little evidence so far to show that all the interested powers and countries involved in the crisis have a clear understanding of what the problems are, let alone expertly juggle the factors necessary to dispose the region to peace and tranquillity.

  • Buhari needs new  ethos and paradigm

    Buhari needs new ethos and paradigm

    In its response to accusations of sectionalism and even nepotism in determining federal appointments so far, the Buhari presidency has confidently indicated that balance would soon be restored, itself an admission  of existing disequilibrium. Presidential aides went on further to reassure the country that President Muhammadu Buhari, a changed and firm leader and democrat, harboured no sectional agenda, whether hidden or open. They also added that all the appointments made so far were done on merit, without explaining why merit can’t seem to be widespread, or why it seems to the government expediently localised. There is no statistical proof of how many people are persuaded by the president’s response, but there is at least evidence that most Nigerians, assured by the government’s overwhelming response to the anti-graft war and other laudable steps taken so far, are prepared to give the president the benefit of the doubt.

    Why the president did not deem the controversy weighty enough to merit his direct intervention and explanation is hard to fathom. Last week, given the intensity of the migration crisis inundating Europe, not to say the evocative and iconic images of distressed, dying or dead migrants, some of them infants, the British prime minister, David Cameron, felt compelled to urgently and directly respond to accusations of British lukewarmness on the plight of refugees. Germany foresaw the scale of the disaster early enough and indicated preparedness to accommodate more than its fair share of refugees. Britain reacted a little late, but at least Mr Cameron finally stirred himself. A leader cannot react to everything, but he must have the judgement or at least the intuition to know matters weighty enough to require his direct intervention.

    President Buhari’s governing machine may just be revving up, as he and his aides have generously asserted. But he has an urgent responsibility to define that machine and open the understanding of the public to its fundamental attributes. Other than his travels to assemble a coalition against Boko Haram, and a few words now and again on his anti-corruption war, he has not made either concrete or symbolic trips to the geopolitical zones of the South to deliver a few great messages about himself, his government, and his country. There is nothing on the ethos of the country, those ennobling characteristics of the nation that manifest in the cumulation of national attitudes and goals. Nor is there anything yet on his governing paradigm, that indispensable fulcrum of policies. But perhaps he is still in deep contemplation.

    One hundred days in the life of a government may be an arbitrary figure advertised by unreflective and populist military governments. But it is not so short a period for the public to begin to have a feel of the fundamental direction of the Buhari government in terms of a political manifesto, social charter and economic philosophy. These charters go far deeper than the anti-corruption war he appears besotted to, than his platitudes on the rule of law and other liberties, and than his promises of the good life for everyone, especially the poor. What, in short, these times call for is the enunciation of a new ethos and paradigm for Nigeria. These are the two fundamentals required to drive his vision in the next four years. These are the fundamentals that will define him as a leader and sculpt an image of him in the public mind. These are the fundamentals that will shape and refine the country, and give it a personality in the world, in the same way an individual is defined and shaped by intrinsic ideas and inscrutable personal responses to experiences.

    Recruiting advisers and presidential aides, and making other key appointments into his cabinet, are not an end in themselves. They are just a part of the building block. What should engage the president is the kind of building he wants to construct and the use it would be put to. When critics assailed him over the 30 or so appointments he had made so far, accusing him of insensitivity and insularity, it was not because they already dismissed his government. The enlightened among the critics were only alarmed that the appointments did not give an indication of the change and future Nigerians want to see, or that President Buhari possessed the depth and innovation needed to remake the society on a scale that rivals great countries in other parts of the world.

    This column advocated this point a few weeks ago. Who are we? What do we stand for? How costly is the life of a Nigerian? What is the leitmotif of our existence? Do we have a leader who embodies the ambition and worldview of Nigeria? This column’s engagement with these issues, especially the recent presidential appointments, is anchored on historical facts. As far back as 6th – 5th century BC, Nebuchadnezzar II, King of Babylon, recognised the importance of widening his empire’s leadership recruitment base by casting his net far and wide to include promising captives of his many wars. The empire boasted of a template to sieve and assess talents from far and wide, a function he obviously placed great emphasis on. It was in that process that Daniel the Jewish captive was discovered. He would later become Prime Minister of Babylon.

    President Buhari must possess an acute sense of history, particularly Nigerian history, in order to function above the common mediocrity and self-created restraints that past leaders had entangled themselves with. World history is important to him to the extent that the lives and achievements of great world leaders and countries can ennoble his own actions and inspire him with great and incomparable examples. But to him, Nigerian history must be indispensable to the extent that in one sweeping and wholesome breath he would personify the life and ambitions of Nigeria.

    Once a Nigerian leader reaches that esoteric level, he becomes inured to the giant obstacles and barricades — some of them ethnic, and others religious — that create artificial divides between the people. He will then aspire to produce a definition of Nigeria within which he can situate a definition of himself, making the two inextricable, the one personifying the other. He will go on to synthesise the concepts of citizenship and individual rights without which Nigeria can never be great, not even if everyone achieved sainthood in a corruption-free country. Nigeria’s past leaders struggled with depth, unable to do more than enunciate a code of superficial and artificial behaviours for the country, and at various times devote either a department or a ministry to champion what they described as a reorientation movement. But their ethical revolution and national reorientation were nothing but sentimental and wasteful drivel.

    A cursory study of Roman history would have shown these leaders how to develop a new ethos, and nurture it. Roman Empire citizenship was so valuable that it was not even lawful for anyone, no matter how highly placed, to strike a Roman without a trial. (A Roman citizen could not be tortured or whipped, nor could he receive the death penalty, unless he was found guilty of treason. If accused of treason, a Roman citizen had the right to be tried in Rome, and even if sentenced to death, no Roman citizen could be sentenced to die on the cross). Paul the Christian missionary had reasons to remonstrate this point with Roman officials during his illustrious proselytising career. But more than two centuries later, Nigerian leaders have been unable to formulate an inspiring, practicable and disciplined concept of Nigerian citizenship, and have consistently sought to hide their incompetence and mediocrity behind the mask of bureaucratic and political skullduggery. Nigerian leaders and their security forces, nearly all of which cannot draw a line between private security interest and national security interest, possess probably one of the worst and most contemptible views of citizenship. Without a revolutionary conception and enforcement of the rights of the Nigerian, it is impossible to harness the country’s energies for national redefinition, growth and greatness, let alone to mobilise the people behind the government for country and glory. Two centuries ago, it meant a whole lot to be a Roman citizen. Today, it means virtually nothing to be a Nigerian.

    President Buhari was elected against the wishes of millions of sceptics who never really believed he had changed for the better or was capable of changing. He will be president for the next four years. So, it may be imprudent to give up on him until he gives up on himself. He will of course be criticised, counseled, admonished and reproved until he becomes a much better man and leader, even at 72. If he wants to mobilise the people behind himself, he will need to do more than just fighting corruption, remoulding the economy and instilling discipline. He must fundamentally rethink many national concepts, using a study of historical examples as a stepping stone. He must take contributions from his brilliant aides or his own private readings on how the concept of the German, American, British, French, Russian, and Chinese persons, among others, evolved and were nurtured over the centuries. He can learn from them if he wishes to leave the country a changed nation, far better than he met it.

    In a Sunday Times of London extract from his new revelatory and shocking book, The Outsider, due for release this week, the author Frederick Forsyth disclosed how he spied for Britain during the Nigerian civil war. His spying was not much different from the pushy but guileful manner many Western countries’ diplomats ferret information out of top Nigerian business, cultural and political leaders. The disturbing fact is that nearly all Nigerian leaders dissolve into molecules in the presence of white leaders, especially of the industrialised democracies. Though he has not started well, given his hasty visit to the United States even before he had time to recognise his own soul, President Buhari must begin to find ways of hardening his resolve against foreign interferences, and carving out a brave and independent idea of his country and unleashing and propelling the sublime geniuses of its peoples, whether they are writers, artists or musicians. That a leader does not grovel at the feet of white leaders does not mean that, like late Gen Murtala Ramat Mohammed, he is rebellious or defiant. His independent posture can also be interpreted as confident and self-reliant. If Nelson Mandela could do it, other African leaders can also do it, even if not on the same scale.

    Eight years of Olusegun Obasanjo was a gross national waste and misadventure. He had the opportunity to lay a solid foundation for Nigerian democracy, albeit a minor component of the needed national ethos. If that was all he was capable of, the country would today be grateful for that modest contribution. But he lacked the intellect and the discipline to fulfill that great and noble mission. Umaru Yar’Adua was a painful, emasculative hiatus. And six years of Goodluck Jonathan proved more than enough to purge Nigerians of any great hope for the future and infuse them with the most enervating pessimism ever. Between the three former leaders, not counting the about 40 years before them, Nigeria has managed to waste 16 whole years.

    If the next four years will not be another needless waste, President Buhari must take counsel far beyond his inner, and sometimes limited, reaches. He and his party enthuse about how well he has started. It is not clear what kind of measures they are using. But he needs to conceive and implement fundamental policies that will touch every nerve and organ and hidden crevices in the body politic. He has neither conceived nor implemented anything substantially evocative of the ethos and paradigm his government and this country sorely need. Even the anti-graft battle he is waging has not taken cognisance of the political economy of corruption, let alone devising formulae to ensure a lasting impact on the society, economy and polity.

    It is time Nigeria stopped frolicking with the peripherals of politics and government. President Buhari must dig deeper, with the help of his aides and advisers, into the purpose of government to bring out the ethos and paradigm Nigeria needs to fulfill its manifest destiny. Much of the little good Chief Obasanjo did in his eight years in office were quickly reversed because they were neither substantial nor impactful of the lives of the people in an unchangeable, unalterable way. President Buhari will undoubtedly do some good, but whatever things he does seem fated to become meretricious rather than consequential and ramifying — an obsession with provision of milk and bread, etc. rather than life- and destiny-changing ideas and policies in a way no one can dismantle for hundreds of years, not even with a succession of incompetent rulers, such as the Ottoman Empire endured after Suleiman, and Rome fitfully experienced after Julius and Augustus Caesar.

  • Buhari’s puzzling appointments

    Buhari’s puzzling appointments

    President Muhammadu Buhari’s seemingly grudging gesture in appointing a few southerners into the presidency and security staff can neither escape attention nor censure. Of the 12 or 13 appointments so far in the presidency, only three have gone to southerners. If appointments to the nation’s security network are added, the number of southerners rises to five out of a total of about 20. It will be interesting to find out how the president’s mind works on this curious issue. He approved the appointments, indeed, he made them. But does he have the presence of mind to appreciate the troubling message the skewed appointments convey about his worldview, and to the country and his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC)?

    Until last Thursday, many commentators had given the president the benefit of the doubt on the structure and motive of his over 30 general appointments. After the recent appointments, some six in all, few analysts doubt any longer how his mind works or what his perspectives are. They still see him as upright, honest and eager to remake a country battered by more than six years of the Goodluck Jonathan presidency. In fact they will rather have him fighting corruption and sloth in public office than anyone else. But they probably no longer see him as the presumed nationalist of their hopes and imagination, nor conceive of him as the one who will be Nigeria’s moderniser and unifier. In just two or three bouts of appointments, President Buhari may have demystified his government and person.

    The signs had been there all along. Top Nigerians, some of them former presidents and former governors, had been uncomfortable with the president’s narrow circle of friends. He had a tendency to stick with those he knew and trusted, they said. He rarely experimented nor ever imbibed the wide-ranging relationships that conduce to great governance in a multi-ethnic, multi-religious and very plural and complex nation like Nigeria, others volunteered. Even this column, which fanatically advanced his interest before the elections, muttered under its breath about whether Candidate Buhari had overcome the provincialism and exclusionism that hobbled his past or were ascribed to him by his critics and detractors. Might there be no one else who could galvanise the society, especially the critical mass of voters in the North, to sweep Dr Jonathan out of office? The answer, sadly, was no. And so Candidate Buhari won the support of this column, notwithstanding the reservations.

    Whatever his past, whatever was ascribed to him fairly or unfairly, and whatever bad names he had been called, there is nothing in the appointments he has made so far that justifies what he has done as a presumed and corrective patriot. The culmination of  the appointments is that Nigeria will in the foreseeable future, perhaps all of four years, have to cope with a presidency that will be distinctly northern in outlook and culture, in the same reprehensible and damaging manner the Jonathan presidency was distinctly Niger Delta/Southeast. Surely, President Buhari must recognise that one of the major reasons Dr Jonathan was repudiated by a chafing electorate was the fact that his parochial aides fouled the presidency in a manner completely irreconcilable with 21st century dictates. Why would President Buhari ignore the lessons of history?

    This must be quite an unsettling time for the APC. For, in the end, they will have to both manage the backlash that will follow these appointments and struggle to keep their fractious party together. After the riling intraparty controversy that nearly fragmented the ruling party and the National Assembly in June, it was hoped that the president would take sensible and measured steps in addressing both the apparent exclusion of the Southeast in the scheme of things and the token recognition given the Southwest, the region that inspired, structured, energised and harmonised the anti-Jonathan and anti-PDP coalitions. Instead, even the mistakes never made nor contemplated by the PDP, nor yet by Dr Jonathan, as poor in leadership as he was, are being flagrantly committed.

    Assuming President Buhari is convinced he disdained better options, it is doubtful whether there is anything he can do in the short run to remedy the situation. He cannot rescind the slanted appointments he has just made; and there are no more key and powerful presidency and security positions to fill. Worse, once a negative impression of the Buhari presidency has taken root, thus confirming the scepticism of those who doubted the so-called political and attitudinal reformation the president claimed he had undergone, it is unlikely that the hard opinion of Buharisceptics would thaw anytime soon.

    What is probably worse is that the political opposition to President Buhari and the APC will now feel emboldened by the sudden realisation that this Achilles indeed has a vulnerable heel. No amount of remedy can dispel the accusation of bias levelled against the president. There are hundreds of other positions waiting to be filled. But the president has already lopsidedly filled the key positions with northerners. All that remains is for this negative impression of him to harden. Every step he takes will then be viewed from that distorted prism. His policies may be sound, and his appointees, tilted towards the North as they are, may be among the best technocrats the country can boast of, but he will be denounced for permitting that skewness, and the value of his policies and the true worth of his appointees will be held continuously in doubt.

    Probably the most acute part of the national embarrassment flowing from the appointments is that President Buhari will now be seen as running and nurturing a presidency that is anything but Nigerian in outlook, and a kitchen cabinet he trusts absolutely but is not ennobled by diversified and inspiring perspectives of issues. After ruling Nigeria as head of state and running for the presidency four times, President Buhari was presumed to recognise the need to make the presidency largely reflect the cultural and political pastiche of Nigeria. He failed to understand this. He should be worried. His supporters suggest that by the time he is through with the remaining appointments, Nigeria’s colourful diversity would manifest. Perhaps. But to the embarrassment and dismay of the circumspect northerners he has appointed, that diversity will be absent at the highest level of the presidency.

    The problem is not that President Buhari has malevolently assembled a constricted presidency, or that he naturally wishes to exclude the rest of the country from his inner circle. Indeed, those who served with or under him in the military have attested to his sense of fairness and patriotism. The real problem is that he has spent most of his active years cultivating or mentoring a very restrictive circle of friends, mentees and subordinates. He apparently prefers to have close to himself those he can trust and feel comfortable around. It is not, therefore, that he is taking the wrong steps by design, as some Southeast politicians have alleged, but that he seems precisely the sort of leader who would do right inadvertently. For a complex society like Nigeria, that orientation is clearly intolerable, and to the Southeast, indefensible.

    Notwithstanding the most copious amelioration of the situation, including vouchsafing the remainder of the so-called juiciest ministerial and MDAs positions to the Southwest and Southeast, the president must have no illusion that any such amelioration can expand the worldview and perspectives of his presidency. Since he assumed office, this column, among many other analysts, had wondered which shadowy personalities were behind his policies and decisions in the absence of a cabinet. These policies and decisions, it was already manifesting in the weeks since he became president, did not gesture appropriately to the wider needs and cultural and political sensitivities of the country. It may get worse now that presidency and security positions have been all but filled up.

    The foundation of a government is as important as the structure of governance erected on it. Yet, no Nigerian government has attracted such dreadful unease over appointments as the Buhari presidency has managed in a few momentous weeks. Had he availed himself of appropriate advice, had he assembled a kaleidoscope of technocrats and politicians, it is unlikely he would have made the kind of appointments he made last week and before. Indeed, it is likely he would have avoided the fiasco in the National Assembly that is certain to dog his presidency for some time, not to talk of the current, unseemly controversy over presidency positions. Commentators did their best to warn the president of the growing slant in his appointments a few weeks ago, especially after he announced his new security chiefs. By ignoring them and going ahead to make the even more controversial appointments of last week, it seems clear the president knew what he was doing.

    President Buhari knew what kind of presidency he wanted. He has now consciously assembled it, and must live with it. His worldview will very likely remain constricted, unable to benefit from the variegated exchange of ideas and backgrounds that diverse presidential aides give. His perspectives will also doubtless be coloured by the philosophies and textures of the men he has assembled to work in close quarters with him. He and his supporters and party must now hope that the foundation he has laid for his presidency, from which he hopes to govern the country adroitly, will sustain his cumbersome vision of a remade and thriving Nigeria. He has his work cut out for him. If he gets away with this unprecedented experimentation of skewness, he will be a lucky man indeed. What is not certain, however, is that he can deliver on the great country the people envision, a country that retains the Buhari legacy after his time in office, renders superfluous the laying of another foundation many years down the road, and is able to offer Africa leadership because it had itself mastered its own cultural, religious and political complexities.

  • Belonging to everybody and to nobody. How quaint!

    Belonging to everybody and to nobody. How quaint!

    The most memorable part of President Muhammadu Buhari’s inaugural address was his assertion that he belonged to everybody and belonged to nobody. It was interpreted that he had sent signals he would not be held hostage by any religious, ethnic or political interest. Given his antecedents and hurtful opposition campaigns during the last polls that alleged religious and ethnic biases against him, the memorable statement signposted some relief to many Nigerians. President Buhari had indeed changed, they chorused. He himself encouraged and wore the change toga extravagantly.

    Not many southerners will, however, accept that President Buhari has changed, or that he belongs to everybody and to nobody. In fact, the Southeast in particular has alleged that the president belongs unquestioningly to the North. Judging from their coverage of the president’s new appointments, the press also seems persuaded that his assertion of detachment from vested interests must be taken with a pinch of salt. After exhausting the security and presidency positions available, it must have become apparent where the president belongs. But don’t take the critics’ words for it.

    Only President Buhari’s speechwriters know why he appropriated the phrase. It was not original to him, and his inaugural address did not indicate that he borrowed it. He can, however, be forgiven, for the phrase was used in December 2003 by Sunday B. Awoniyi who was chairman and guest lecturer at a book launch on Muhammadu Buhari in Kaduna about 12 years ago. Chief Awoniyi was a Kogi-born politician and bureaucrat who was close to the late Sardauna of Sokoto and Premier of the Northern Region, Sir Ahmadu Bello, and was in 1975 permanent secretary at the Ministry of Petroleum Resources, Broad Street, Lagos, when the then Col. Buhari was federal commissioner.

    In the lecture, Chief Awoniyi contextually situated the paradoxes of his origin and politics, especially insinuations that he was at various times a Babangida man, a Buhari man, an Atiku man, or an anti-government man, and then declared: “It is a no-win situation. I want to say it loud and clear that I, Chief Sunday Awoniyi, am nobody’s man. I am everybody’s man. I am a Yoruba man and proud to be one. I am a Christian and glad to be one. I am from Okunland in the old Kabba Province of Northern Nigeria, now a state called Kogi State. That makes me a northerner…”

    Chief Awoniyi could in the context he used the phrase claim he was everybody’s man. It is, however, not certain whether in the context he used it or as far as his actions so far are concerned, President Buhari can claim to be nobody’s man.