Sixty-five-year old Matamela Cyril Ramaphosa, after the disgraced former President, Jacob Gedleyihlekisa Zuma was forced to resign, assumed office as president of South Africa as fifth president of the new South Africa following the footsteps of Nelson Rolihlahla Mandela,(1994-1999), Thabo Mvuyelwa Mbeki (1999-2008), Kgalema Motlanthe (2008- 2009) and Zuma (2009- 2018). The regime of Zuma was marked by what South Africans call “state capture” by Ajay Gupta, Atul Gupta, Rajesh Gupta and Varun Gupta all brothers from Uttar Pradesh in India who thoroughly corrupted virtually everyone in power as part of their modus operandi of doing business in South Africa.
Unfortunately this strategy seems to be what Indians doing business all over Africa including Nigeria adopt. They come to Africa wearing the clothes on their backs and carrying a few things in their briefcases. Once they arrive, they find their ways to our banks and borrow billions of the local currencies and set up export-import businesses. The banks prefer them to local people because they offer huge kickbacks to the management of the banks. Before long these people become rich enough to warm themselves into the embrace of local politicians thus completing state capture by cornering juicy contacts and serving as conduit pipes for bribes paid to politicians at home and abroad. The Guptas overreached themselves and the African National Congress (ANC) was so embarrassed by Zuma’s betrayal of trust that they were no longer ready to wait another eight months for him to complete his 10-year term as president before they threw the blighter out. Jacob Zuma who had refused all the pressure mounted on him eventually threw in the towel and surrendered like a well beaten boxer. He even tried to raise the ethnic flag by insinuating that his Zulu people might react violently but even his Zulu compatriots felt he did not represent the best essence of the Zulu people. He had not only been corrupt he was accused one time of raping the daughter of a friend in spite of having three wives. His defence was that the girl involved sat carelessly facing him and that was a challenge to his Zulu manhood!
He did not support Ramaphosa, his vice president to take over from him. Earlier on, he had backed his apparently capable ex-wife and former chairperson of the African Commission, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma to succeed him as president. The gambit nearly worked. The lady was eminently qualified on her own capacity. She was a former minister of health under Mandela, minister of foreign affairs under presidents’ Thabo Mbeki and Kgalema Motlanthe and held the powerful ministry of home affairs under Jacob Zuma. Her candidacy failed because it was vastly conjectured as a plot to cover up the corruption of her ex-husband for whom she has three children. She inherited the support and enmity of her ex-husband in equal measure and she ran as a strong second to Ramaphosa. It will be prudent for the new president to protect his Zulu flank by bringing her into his government.
Cyril Ramaphosa is from the small ethnic group the Venda but it seems South African politics has gone beyond ethnic considerations. Indeed Ramaphosa does not only speak his native Venda but also Zulu, Xhosa, Ndebele, Sotho, Afrikaans and English. He was a trade unionist under the apartheid regime. Mandela had recommended him to succeed him but the other leaders of the ANC preferred Thabo Mbeki, the son of Govan Mbeki who along with Raymond Mhlaba, Walter Sisulu and others were the backbone of the ANC in their years of white persecution. But Ramaphosa’s time has now come. When he was rejected as Mandela’s successor, Ramaphosa buried himself in business and became one of the richest black South Africans. When he says he will revive the economy and end state capture and corruption, he sounds believable. South Africans believe that as a rich man he will face the task of governance without having to dirty his hands with filthy lucre since he is already a rich man.
His wealth may be a problem if he is too pro-business while the vast majority of black South Africans wallow in poverty. People still remember he had shares in mines whose management called policemen to shoot down striking black miners a few years ago. He will also have to do something about the yawning gap between the rich whites and the poor blacks in the country. The question of white ownership of most productive lands in the country while blacks are herded into bad patches of dry and infertile lands would have to be tackled. Housing is a major headache for blacks and so is growing unemployment among young graduates. The rate of violence in the country is one of the highest in the world. The country is also faced with the HIV pandemic. Recently, students in higher institutions protested against attempt by government to increase students’ school fees.
In short, his regime is going to be faced with rising expectations in an economy that is not keeping pace with demographic growth. On the ANC’s left politically is Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), a break-away youth wing now unreasonably campaigning for nationalization of land. This is a popular call among the youth but if done may possibly ruin the agriculture and economy of South Africa. Ramaphosa would have to balance as delicately as possible, South Africa’s economic interest represented by white ownership of means of production with political demands of the black majority. He will have to persuade the whites to let go some of the land while also letting the blacks know they would gain from a booming economy. It will not be easy. Ramaphosa was largely responsible for marshalling the ANC’s position during the negotiations for a post-apartheid South Africa; he should be able to bring his negotiating skill to reconcile black economic and political aspirations with realistic economic interest of the white and Asian community in South Africa. The quick transfer of power in South Africa has convinced foreign investors of the economic and political stability of the country under a relatively young and astute leader.
Presently the economy is growing at 2.5 percent of GDP a year. This is below most of the growth rate of the economies of most countries in Africa south of the Sahara and north of the Limpopo. Even sluggish Nigerian economy’s growth should be more than 2.5 percent this year.
South Africa will be going for election next year just like Nigeria. But unlike doomsday’s prediction in Nigeria, the election in South Africa will not be marred by violence and tensions. Nigeria may be the largest economy in Africa and there is no reason to boast about it, we are four times the size of South Africa in population but our antediluvian infrastructure is a cause for soul-searching and a national disgrace. Only God knows when we will ever have regular supply of electricity. Potable water in Nigeria has become history and most homes depend on dug wells behind the main houses. Intercity travelling is constantly challenged by Kalashnikov gun-wielding terrorists masquerading as herders. Our population is galloping at geometric rate of growth with challenge therefore posed to our ability to feed ourselves even before herders drove away farmers from the land. We are faced with existential challenges while our governments do not seem to appreciate the problems but rather prefer to play politics with the present and future of our country. Yet without Nigeria doing well, the fate of the black man is sealed. The future of the black man will be determined not in South Africa but in Nigeria. This is our destiny whether manifest or hidden. Until we have leaders who appreciate this call to rise and fulfil our role in Africa, we will continue to grope in the dark.
