The Nation Newspaper

Category: Tuesday

2015: Choice before APC
Political calculations are just not mere number-ordering as in counting quantum, but empirical studies aim at addressing the need of a political desideratum. With just a few months to the dawn of electioneering campaigns in Nigeria and the realisation that the ruling People’s Democratic Party, the PDP, has opted for the incumbent President Ebele Jonathan as its flag-bearer in 2015 presidential polls, two things must agitate the mind of the opposition. These are: the right strategies to successfully remove the incumbent President and the ruling PDP democratically through the polls bearing in mind that a typical African sitting president is worse than a bull in a China shop. The second important index which forms part of the ingredient of the first, is breaking the “na-our-son mentality” of the average South-south person thereby creating the assurance that even with the removal of the Jonathan government, the gains so far mustered in the region during his period, will be consolidated upon and or preserved by the coming administration.

It is widely acknowledged and acclaimed world-wide that the Jonathan government represents an all-time low in Nigeria’s political history. Whether it’s in politics, economy, security or moral re-armament, the worst government Nigeria had before this could possibly with some moral certainty raise a candle of assistance to light up the darkness the Jonathan government is enmeshed! Howbeit, those reasons for which many informed Nigerians would want the government voted out are in the public discourse domain.

One of the challenges that face the All Progressive Congress, APC, as at the moment is the vested interest of the major gladiatorial line-up or the heavy weights in the party. It will be recalled that awareness by the opposition that 15 years of the ruling party has done collateral damage to the nation’s economy resulted in the political regrouping that metamorphosed in birth to the APC; a coalition of three main opposition parties, the ACN led by Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the CPC of General Muhammadu Buhari and the All Nigeria Peoples Party. The formidability of this new platform as a party of the masses soon challenged the estranged members of the PDP who began to dare their party’s status quo. Soon many of them, very heavy weights in the PDP, decided to pitch tent in with the APC camp. The resultant calculation therefore is that all the major actors in this grand coalition of force came to the party with their followers. The Tinubu group, ACN, from all intent and purposes has the sympathy of over 80% of the South-west; the ANPP leg of the party has its support base in Kano, Sokoto and part of the troubled North-east, having lost Adamawa to the PDP via impeachment. The All progressive Grand Alliance APGA has South-east to pull its support from while the PDP entrants like the ANPP draws its support from across the north. Today, this is the framework of the opposition APC which if not properly handled could lead to a crisis of monumental proportion and the total fall of the expected emergence of a viable two-party platform and/or a viable opposition in Nigeria.

As the current opposition party, one contestant to the APC presidential ticket stands out as the most single individual with the largest followership; Muhammadu Buhari. It will be recalled that barely there months to the last presidential election, he formed the CPC to challenge the ruling PDP, and despite a lean purse, pulled a whooping 12million votes, beating others parties’ contestants to come up a close runner-up to President Jonathan. We must not forget that lack or paucity of campaign funds foreclosed his ability to campaign throughout the country like others. Yet, Nigerians, many who knew him well as a disciplined and the most incorruptible politician today in the country stood by him and are still in the vanguard of agitation for his presidency come 2015!

Other major actors in the race, Abubakar Atiku who flew the Action Congress flag and Rabiu Kwankwaso have large electoral followership but these cannot be compared to the mass followership of Buhari! It follows therefore that the APC can reap huge electoral fortunes from the Buhari persona in 2015 presidential election if the other contestants are magnanimous enough to team up with his candidacy. This will be complimented with the South-west mass support.

The Buhari candidacy is even more desirable now that the PDP has adopted Jonathan, thus presenting a balanced North/South tackles in the race between the two parties. Besides, the affable General still remains the only political gladiator from the North whose political foray in the past and now has not crossed the frontiers of fellow actors as to engender enmity or personal political jealousy. On a wider national appeal, the failure of the government to handle terrorism and other security matters, especially the Boko Haram insurgency, recommends the desirability of a president with a good understanding and respect of the Armed Forces to reinstate their integrity.

It follows therefore that any attempt by the APC to push forward a candidate with lower personal or political integrity will open such a candidate to such critical performance analysis, dug-up vilification charges and massive loss of vote as to provide the PDP candidate an easy open-sesame back to Aso Rock!

I have deliberately left-out the South-east as it is obvious that mainstream Ndi-Igbo is apparently not interested in fighting for the seat of the President so long as “Azikiwe” is still there! This is where the second part of this proposition – assuaging South-south fear of reverting into the political limbo after Jonathan- takes root.

It well known that the South-south is the bastion of support for the Jonathan administration. It is also very true from enlightened opinion that people of this zone are not unaware of the dismal performance of their son, but have remained solidly behind him in the spirit of rotational Presidency; Nigeria’s stop-gap solution to ethnic domination of the presidency that from all intents and purposes emphasises mediocrity in politics! This fear has roots in the unknown that the region may be relegated back into the pre-Jonathan era! This fear is palpable. You can feel it when you discuss with a typical South-south political activist no matter his education or standing in the society. This fear will govern his choice on the day of election. So how does the opposition assuage this fear and win his vote? You can also say the same for the average Ndi-Igbo person who sees the proverbial “Hausa/Fulani hegemonist” in an “unholy” handshake with the Yoruba man who is an economic wizard. The opposition must not overlook the fear of Ndi-Igbo support for Jonathan’s government. It must work to gain their confidence.

How? A South-east or South-south vice-presidential ticket is likely the magic wand and three people come to mind here viz; Governor Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers, Rochas Okorocha of Imo State and Comrade Adams Oshiomhole of Edo State. Yet these political actors have their respective political varying values vis-à-vis the southern zones which they represent. The South-east and South-south tend to agree on many national issues and have a shared loyalty as people of the Greater Southern half of Nigeria.

Without too much ado, the Comrade Governor of Edo State could be said to have a larger followership of the three for the following reasons: (1) there is the latent labour movement followership that can be galvanised in times such as presidential elections. This cut across South-south and South-east and is awaiting re-awakening. (2) He is the only one among the three whose political odyssey has not witnessed a movement from one party to the other, hence should engage lesser political squabble from enemies within who may play up and capitalise on public opprobrium from such issues. And finally, deriving from the two above, he may be said to be more independent-minded not only as a representative of the South-south in the Presidency, but of the whole south as a whole in the post-Jonathan administration.

From the perspective of these analyses, we may deduce that a Buhari- Oshiomhole ticket is one sure frontal attack the All Progressives Congress has for a formidable electoral choice in 2015! The APC must for now appreciate that the present calls for the sacrifice of personal interest for the collective good of all Nigerians whose daily prayer is to ensure that President Jonathan is removed from government in the coming elections. It’s a time that calls for a collective effort to chase away the hyena before deciding which cock heads the brood and the exigency of such times abhors internal frictions and squabbles.
- Mallam Abu’Bakar writes from Lagos
October 28, 2014
Ebola and Citizen Adadevoh

On October 20, Nigeria was declared Ebola free by World Health Organisation (WHO) after 42 days without any incidence of the Ebola disease in Nigeria. The WHO representative in Nigeria Rui Gama Vaz described the victory over Ebola as “spectacular success story”. He said “The Ebola outbreak in Nigeria has been defeated. This is a spectacular success story that shows to the world that Ebola can be contained.”

Personally, I am so proud of Nigeria and Nigerians with the way Ebola was dealt with swiftly and decisively! This remarkable success story has renewed my hope and faith for the future of our nation. Anytime I think of Ebola and the Nigerian will, a smile comes across my face because I know that if we can contain and defeat Ebola, I know we can contain and defeat Boko Haram, corruption and all the other vices threatening to destroy Nigeria once we have the will to do so.

Having said that, we must ask ourselves the following questions: What really helped in the early stage to ensure the Ebola virus was contained and defeated quickly? Who started the process to ensure that Nigeria did not become a graveyard full of dead bodies? What part did responsible citizenship play? Who was the Nigerian citizen that first took up responsibility once it was discovered that the Patient Zero (Patrick Sawyer the Liberian) was infected with the Ebola virus? Which Nigerian citizen exercised leadership in her area of influence that invariably helped to ensure the disease was successfully contained and defeated? Who helped to empower our leaders to lead and win the successful battle over Ebola? Who created the right conditions for our leaders at various levels to emerge as great and victorious leaders in the fight against Ebola? These are questions we need to answer to understand how each of us as Nigerian citizens must play our role at the citizen level to create the right conditions for our leaders to play their roles at the state, ministry and federal level.

Clayborne Carson, the editor of Dr. Martin Luther King’s autobiography said “If we want social change to take place, rather than waiting for a leader to emerge, we have to first look in the mirror and see it as our responsibility to create the conditions for a leader to emerge. When Rosa Parks was sitting on that bus and was faced with the choice of whether or not to give up her seat, she didn’t get on a cell phone and call Martin Luther King and say ‘What should I do?’ She did what she had to do, and that provided a context in which Martin Luther King could then do what he could do, and the rest is history.”

My Nigerian version of the above quote would read – “Just like the American citizen Rosa Parks, the Nigerian citizen Dr. Ameyo Adadevoh when she was faced with the choice of bucking under pressure from the Liberian Ambassador and discharging Patient Zero Patrick Sawyer or standing her ground and quarantining him, she didn’t get on the phone to call Governor Fashola or the health minister or the President and say ‘What should I do?’ She did what she had to do as a responsible Nigerian citizen and that provided a context in which Governor Fashola of Lagos State, former Minister of Health Prof Onyebuchi Chukwu and President Jonathan could then do what they could do and as they say the rest is history – an Ebola free Nigeria!”

If not for Citizen Adadevoh taking up the responsibility at the citizen level, we would have had a catastrophe on our hands as a nation, probably worse than what Liberia is experiencing right now due to our vast population. Even though we have a population of about 170 million Nigerians, only 19 people were infected with the Ebola virus and we lost seven. I think that is absolutely incredible considering the fact that over 4, 500 people have died from the disease in West Africa alone!

Thomas Jefferson the third president of the United States said: “He does most in God’s great world who does his best in his own little world.” Citizen Adadevoh did her best in her own little world in the health sector of Nigeria and she ended up doing the most in God’s great world called Nigeria. One person, one Nigerian, one citizen, made an outstanding difference that invariably helped to create an Ebola-free Nigeria instead of an Ebola-ridden Nigeria.

Historically all over the world individual citizens have taken up responsibility and exercised leadership at the citizen level. And this either created positive social change or created the right conditions for the right leaders to emerge or empowered leadership to do their part. During the debate over America’s independence, one person, one citizen, Thomas Paine wrote a pamphlet titled Common Sense that created a powerful change. General Washington said that it worked “a powerful change in the minds of many”; (These United States, 1981). Citizen Thomas Paine created the right conditions for General Washington and America’s founding fathers to exercise leadership, start the American Revolution, and declare the United States an independent nation.

In Poland in 1980, one man, one Polish citizen, an electrician turned labour union leader Lech Walesa became a strike leader making unheard of demands of a communist-controlled government. Citizen Walesa created the conditions for the fall of communism in Poland and the rest of Eastern and Central Europe.

In 1953, one person, one Nigerian, one citizen Anthony Enahoro moved the motion for Nigeria’s self-rule and self-determination. Citizen Enahoro created the conditions for Nigeria’s founding fathers to play their leadership role and make it a reality.

Governor Fashola, Prof Onyebuchi Chukwu and President Jonathan were able to exercise leadership because one Nigerian citizen Ameyo Adadevoh took up responsibility and exercised leadership at the citizen level in her area of influence – in the medical profession.

As a Nigerian citizen, how can you take up responsibility in your area of influence like Citizen Adadevoh? How can you exercise leadership in your area of influence? How can you create the conditions that will help empower our leaders to do the right thing? What can you do to play your part in such a way that it will compel government and leadership at various levels to play their part? What do you have to do to provide the context for our leaders to do what they have to do?

Always remember that leadership and citizenship are two sides of the same coin. The quality of leadership is always determined by the quality of citizenship at work as Citizen Adadevoh has clearly shown.

October 28, 2014
What manner of ceasefire?

Yours truly could be forgiven for mistaking the so-called ceasefire between the military and the Boko Haram in Abuja for the long-expected terrorists’ instrument of surrender. This is perhaps to be expected in the context of the unmistakeable signs of the military finally coming to its own after months of costly, humiliating reverses including losses of sophisticated hardware and vast portions of Nigerian territory to the enemy. Taken together with the renewed diplomatic offensive that has raised prospects of further isolation of the terrorist group, one would be right to imagine that the days of the group as a cohesive, fighting force, is increasingly numbered.

To yours truly, the matter had become as simple as pressing the current advantages to force a lasting truce and to exact retribution for the crimes committed against the state. That was probably why the text of the ‘ceasefire’ anounced by Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), Air Chief Marshal Alex Badeh could not have been anything but anti-climaxtic and confounding: “…a ceasefire agreement has been concluded between the federal government of Nigeria and the Ahlul Sunna Li Daawa Wal Jihad…I have accordingly directed the service Chiefs to ensure immediate compliance with this development in the field.”

Apparently, so desperate was the army chief to churn out the agreement as breakthrough that he couldn’t but dispense with the military’s traditional taciturnity on such sensitive matters; on its part, the Jonathan administration, ever so reader to cart home the trophy before the game was called saw the Chad-brokered ceasefire as heaven sent! It did not matter that the details were still sketchy and tentative at that point; any deal – including a one-sided one in which a sovereign authority would offer what amounted to a capitulation for a morsel of ‘peace’ – would simply suffice!

Familiar? On yeah!

More than a week after, Nigerians are in a better position to assess the substance of an agreement that continues to yield body counts in scores on both sides with every passing day. But then, given the spate of renewed hostilities, the army top shot may well have been talking nonsense. Not only has the raiding band of the Boko Haram since heightened their campaigns of abduction and seizure of women and children with the number of abductees hitting nearly five scores in the past week alone, the ceasefire may well have existed only in the imagination of its purveyors!

Indeed, hours after the announcement of the ceasefire, troops from the 7th Division of the Nigerian Army would swoop on the Boko Haram after the latter staged an attack on Damboa, Borno State. In the ensuing battle, 25 members of the sect were killed. In Abadan, a town located on the Nigeria-Niger border, if the residents had expected respite within hours of the proclamation of the ceasefire particularly after an earlier attack some 24 hours before the ceasefire left 30 dead, the attacks would actually intensify after. So confused was the atmosphere that the French news agency, AFP quoted a resident as saying: “We all heard of the ceasefire over the radio but it seems the insurgents are not perturbed at all…To me, they (the militants) don’t even care about it because they increased their attacks from Friday, the very day the ceasefire was announced. By Saturday, they hoisted their flags.”

I have in the course of the past week, struggled to find the meaning of the “ceasefire” as proposed. Ordinarily, the idea of cessation of hostilities, although nowhere near a half-way home to closure, should offer the nation some respite – if it works. With sweet poison of possible release of the Chibok Girls, it seems the nation could not have had a better deal! Really?

It must be said though that the idea of asking our fighting men to hold fire for whatever reasons, in the context of military advantage reportedly achieved in the past few weeks would appear suspect, inexplicable, if not entirely opportunistic. Perhaps, only the federal government still lives in the illusion that the nihilists, after feeding on the blood of innocent Nigerians would become penitent without a decisive routing in battle.

Who needs a ceasefire that offers next-to-zilch chance of getting the group to renounce the toxic ideology that permits and legitimises savagery? Or one that squelches the prospects of a fitting retribution for the obvious crimes committed by the group against humanity?

We must be clear in all of this: the reason the nation is at this very point is the apparent loss of capacity by the Nigerian state under the leadership of President Goodluck Jonathan. It is the administration’s inability to enforce the nation’s unchallengeable will within its borders that must be seen as the heart of the imbroglio. True, there are those who would argue whether the increasingly war-weary military – and not least the civil populace – really have much choice than settle for armistice, more so with recent revelations about the poor fighting spirit and rank indiscipline among the troops, all of which of course are directly traceable to the rot that have percolated in the military establishment over the years.

Much as these concerns are not without foundation, they merely validate the point about the absence of state capacity at a critical moment. The greater tragedy is the false choice being promoted by the Jonathan administration as one between appeasement which merely offers the spineless federal government opportunity to buy time to kick the problem down the road, and the rule of abdication under which it throws its hands in the air and do nothing on the other!

Want to know my thought on the Chibok Girls? I believe the poor girls will soon be released. Nigerians – the countless millions who continue to offer their prayers want them home. Of course, the international community wants them home. After more than six months in their custody, it seems understandable that the Boko Haram would also want to see their backs!

Of course, President Jonathan wants them home; the same reason that our friends at the Transformation Ambassador of Nigeria (TAN) secretariat want them home before the November 16, D-Day! Imagine what would happen were the girls to show up, say for instance, at Abuja City gate at the H-Hour!

October 28, 2014
Beyond a Buhari presidency

No prize for guessing right — the October 15 presidential declaration, by former military Head of State, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, is sending the Goodluck Jonathan establishment into a tizzy. But it should surprise no one that the Jonathan camp is jumpy.

Never in the history of Nigeria has government been so demystified, as under President Jonathan. To act right, the Jonathan Presidency is annoyingly impotent. But to act wrong, it oozes brazen, devil-may-care impunity. Gone, with the winds, are basic etiquettes that make government tolerable because it acts responsible. From almost all indices, the administration is a flat failure.

In the context of soaring insecurity, take the Chibok fiasco, on which Jonathan seems to have hit blind panic. There have been perennial news, at least in the last three weeks, that the Chibok girls would soon taste freedom, after six months in the Boko Haram dungeon. Monday, October 20 was to be the sweet freedom day, after which a ceasefire announced by Chief of Defence Staff, Air Marshal Alex Badeh, would have held. But all seems to have ended in fiasco, with the girls’ release and the ceasefire turning a mirage.

Indeed, the Chibok affair would appear Jonathan’s unravelling point. When the messy affair started, the president and his men (and women) feigned disbelief; and lived in the denial that the ploy was some stunt by some political opponents, thus losing crucial lead time.

Now, to resolve the political denouement, the administration appears trapped. Jonathan is anxious to reveal the most open secret in Nigeria’s political history: his zest to run in 2015. Yet, without the resolution of Chibok, even the president himself knows he embarks on a journey to nowhere, though his spin machine would try to put the failure on the neck of some nebulous “opposition”.

The Chibok failure is replicated almost on all sectors of the polity and economy.

Public finance: No government in Nigerian history has been so brazen in its (mis)management of the Federation Account. Revenue shortfalls may not be novel. What is novel is the consistent shortfalls now come with absolutely no logical explanations; laced with partisan conspiracy theories that the ploy is allegedly to cripple opposition governors because of 2015. Yet, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Finance minister, claims Nigeria is not broke!

Religion and ethnicity: The president and his party have not flinched from the religious bomb for partisan gains. President Jonathan himself started lobbing political bazookas from church pulpits, passing himself off as a persecuted Christian president at the mercy of Muslim anarchists, to gain explosive sympathy. Without much ado, PDP spokesman Olisa Metuh, tagged the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) an “Islamic party”, his own emotive way of blunting the party’s perceived potency.

And open sesame! A country, fractious at the best of times, is now in a fierce hubbub of Christian-Muslim antipathy!

Meanwhile, the passive volcano of ethnic bickering has started flickering, in the run-up to 2015. The South-South roars: “Our son, our son”! The South East gushes: Cousin Ebele! In Lagos, some voice hollers: “Ndigbo, remember your numbers!”, the same lobby that goads the Igbo to make a dash for the state’s deputy-governorship, riding on Cousin Ebele’s coat tail, to the utter irritation of their Yoruba hosts. Of course, the good, old South vs. North is alive and well. And the Middle Belt? Uphold your Christian faith against the core North’s!

It is the demagogue’s paradise out there, this Jonathan presidency!

Yet, you could feel the administration’s clear discomfort at the sight and sound from the Buhari presidential declaration — discomfort at both the quantum and fervour of the crowd, as well as the A-list politicians gathered there.

Still, Buhari is a long way from emerging the APC candidate, given the bid of no less than four other aspirants: former Vice President Abubakar Atiku, sitting Governors Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano), and Rochas Okorocha (Imo) and Leadership Newspaper Publisher, Sam Nda-Isaiah.

Even if he does emerge, Ripples, with all due respect to the widely acclaimed incorruptibility of the Spartan general, does not think Buhari is an especial visionary or a governmental modernist in the mould of Nasir El-Rufai or even, Rabiu Kwankwaso.

Besides, his mindset would appear centralist — just like former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s — and not quite attuned to the imperative for radical federal restructuring, if this democracy must deliver sustainable development and prosperity. Not unlike Obasanjo too, Buhari would appear susceptible to the illusion of hoping personal daring would solve systemic problems. Obasanjo flatly failed on that score. There is no indication that Buhari would succeed.

O yes: there is a raft of zestful media speculations that a Buhari-Babatunde Fashola ticket would create new possibilities and dynamism, never perhaps before dreamed of in a federal democratic Nigeria. That might well be.

But the dynamics of presidential politics still makes the vice-president a spare tyre! When presidential cabals invade, the vice-president had better dive for cover! If in doubt, ask Goodluck Jonathan in his Umaru Yar’Adua years!

Besides, there is the issue of the Christian-Christian/Muslim-Muslim ticket, on which Obasanjo has just made a baleful noise.

Still, what makes a putative Buhari ticket so scary for the Jonathan camp? Political arithmetic! Buhari is the scary face of a North that wants power back — and claims it has the number to do just that! On the cynical plane, that is more than formidable; and Jonathan is especially vulnerable.

Jonathan, after six years, has pretty little to show in concrete achievement. That is why his camp has embarked on their divisive and emotive strategies. Even then, they need to painfully cobble together the numbers to make hay.

Buhari? His immense standing in the Northern “streets” is enough to harvest the vote, for a near-cult figure, despite the long running mutual suspicion between him and the northern elite. If the Northwest-Southwest political entente works as planned, plus further harvests from a hurting Northeast, which by action and compassion Jonathan abjectly failed to protect from Boko Haram, it could well be vicious payback time!

On a nobler front, the Mr. Clean image of Buhari is a grave rebuke to a Jonathan administration that appears a brazen boast of equal-opportunity sleaze, with the president himself making his infamous distinction between stealing and corruption.

Still, danger may well lurk in a Buhari putative presidency. Ironically, the booby trap is the Obasanjo-Jonathan collusion that killed the PDP zoning formula, in Obasanjo’s expectation of a presidential puppet in Jonathan.

Though both putative puppet and puppeteer have cancelled themselves out in grief — with Jonathan making a hash of his presidency and Obasanjo closest ever to political irrelevance — that conspiracy may well hand the North the dangerous illusion that it could well hold on to power in perpetuity — with a sense of rogue morality, since Jonathan and co-southerners killed zoning. That would be Nigeria’s fastest track to perdition.

That is why the APC must come up with a robust power-balancing template, based on the felt-needs of the six geo-political zones, develop concrete programmes to meet these needs and enshrine the federal doctrine in its intra-party conduct.

Otherwise, it would have won the war of presidential election, yet lose the peace of Nigeria’s stability, integrity and progress.

October 28, 2014
An earful from Fayose’s people

When I turned in my copy for this space last week (“Fayose 2.0: A troubling start”), I fully expected that its publication would set off spirited comments, pro and contra, in roughly equal measure.

I was flat out wrong. Reactions poured forth all right, but they were far more contra than pro. Governor (Dr) Peter Ayodele Fayose’s teeming supporters gave me an earful, and not just on account of the issues I raised in the column.

In retrospect, I should have kept in mind what a young resident of Ekiti told me in a telephone conversation last June as the returns of the state’s gubernatorial election were being tallied.

Fayose was going to win and win big, he had asserted.

“Despite the integrated poultry scam on which he expended hundreds of millions of Naira without producing a single egg?” I asked.

“The people have largely forgotten, and those who haven’t forgotten don’t care,” he rejoined.

“And despite facing two murder raps?” I pursued.

“If Fayose should kill off one-half of the population of Ekiti State,” he said without fear and without revulsion, “the remaining half would still vote for him.”

This is of course a gross libel on the proud, valiant, principled and highly accomplished sons and daughters of Ekiti I have been privileged to know at work, at play and in social intercourse. Fecklessness is not their defining character.

My interlocutor, I suspect, was carried away by Fayose’s folksy ways and his capacity for “connecting” with the mass of the people, to the point of believing that his hero could do whatever he needed to do and not have to worry about consequences.

“We just love him,” he added, in case I didn’t grasp what he had been saying.

If I had kept this profile in mind, I would perhaps have anticipated the sandbagging that was sure to follow the publication of my October 21 column, “Fayose 2.0: A troubling start.”

Not all of it was bad news, however.

Duro Afonja, a longstanding follower of this column from whom we had heard nothing for quite a while entered this thoughtful critique online:

“It’s too easy to laugh at Fayose, but while shaking our heads over stomach infrastructure, agbo jedi (herbal concoction for haemorroids) etc, it is necessary to conduct an inquiry into what Fayemi did wrong to squander his goodwill to the extent that the people preferred a Fayose’s return to his continuation.

“The people knew Fayose, so all he said at his 2nd inauguration was not news to them, yet they chose him. Fayemi and the APC crowd took the people for granted, became complacent and rested on their PhDs.

“Fayemi would have written and delivered a better inaugural address, he’s a gentleman etc. but na dat one the people go chop?

“Stomach Infrastructure should not just be seen in terms of rice and chicken but in terms of the disconnect of government from the people.”

Another correspondent, who signed off as “asula”, wrote in a text message: “Thanks for that wonderful piece on Fayose . . . but with such serious character defect how did he manage to persuade Ekiti kete to elect him for a second time?”

Also belonging in the category of the more thoughtful reactions is this one: “I read your column of October 21 with dismay. As an experienced and respected columnist, you didn’t’ seem to see anything good in the inaugural speech of the new governor. The former governor you eulogised like an angel recorded his own minus while in office. There should be a balance between IDEALISM and PRAGMATISM. Whatever may be the inaugural speech of the new governor, it is too early to judge and crucify. Be modest in your writings.”

And this, also: “You have x-rayed all the misdeeds of Fayose in the past. He didn’t do any good thing?”

From then on, the text messages, unsigned for the most part, get downright tacky. Here is a random selection:

“Olatunji, you talk like a little boy, you have turned your old age into a curse.”

Another: “Your write-up today is full of lies and jargons. I know you as a regular beggar at Asiwaju’s residence.”

You have to wonder what he was doing so regularly at Asiwaju’s residence. But I digress.

“Not all pots are black,” wrote another correspondent in an sms. “Believe what you believe and let Fayose be. You are full of emptiness.”

Yet another wrote, taunting: “You are obviously a hater and an enemy of progress. You still can’t digest the fact that a not-too-schooled Fayose upstaged a well-schooled Fayemi. I feel your pain.”

Then this: “Your write-up lacked depth. I wonder how you became a professor. You should be ashamed of yourself. At 70, you collect pennies from your paymasters to run elected officials down.”

You have to wonder how much he collects from his own paymasters. But I digress again, for the last time.

This next comment cannot but strike you with its lexical freshness. It reads: “I know quite a few professors who are groundnut materials. You have now joined the list. Hungry professors like you are a shame to academia. Destructive criticism of a man of the people does not serve any good purpose.”

Me? “Groundnut professor?” That’s a new one. Who says Fayemi’s people have a monopoly on learning?

Back during the Babangida era, some young, obviously disgruntled and probably envious junior academics came up with a hilarious taxonomy of the Nigerian professoriate. First there were those they called agbero intellectuals. The Yoruba prefix denotes the motor-park tout, whose task is to get the vehicle filled with passengers, without the slightest thought about its carrying capacity or its roadworthiness. The only thing he cares about is his commission, calculated from the number of passengers.

The agbero intellectual, then, served any government in power or any cause, no matter its complexion or ideology. A denizen of the corridors of power, he flaunted his access at the slightest provocation or with no provocation, marshaled the argument to justify any policy. His commission was the trappings of office and, like the motor-park tout, he prized it above all else.

Then there was the miliki (or playboy) intellectual, cigar-chomping, cognac-swilling, weighed down by gold necklaces, more concerned with living the good life than with changing a footnote, to say nothing of changing a paradigm. He drove the finest cars and hobnobbed with the men of the moment, the better to indulge in their favourite pastime of influence-peddling.

I think there was another category – perhaps two — that I cannot recall with confidence. But “groundnut intellectual” or “groundnut professor” was definitely not one of them.

It is a new entry in the vocabulary of scholarship, for which my correspondent who, most likely from an excess of modesty, chose not to claim ownership.

Could I through this medium appeal to him to shed his modesty and step forward to claim just credit for what is sure to enter the books as a lexical breakthrough?

Should Fayose ever require a Senior Special Assistant on Mental Infrastructure, there is his man.

October 28, 2014
For General Gowon at 80
At is my delight and honour to greet General Yakubu Gowon on his 80th birthday. It is an honour because I never knew I would have the privilege of knowing him a little closely, an outstanding statesman and an eminent Christian.

During my restless days as a Students Union activist in the University of Ibadan in the early 60s, I saw this man, by chance, when I made a detour to the Congo (Kinshasha and Brazzaville), from Dares-Salam in Tanzania where I had gone to attend an International Students Conference, piqued by the civil war there, which created worldwide concern. My host, without prior notice, for my one week stay, was the Nigerian Ambassador to the Congo (I cannot remember his name now). He took me one day to the Officers Mess to meet members of the Nigerian contingent to the United Nations Forces then in the Congo. I do not know why the picture of this dashing young man, Gowon, and of Mobolaji Johnson got stuck in my memory since then.

Here is the man who believed that it is not the business of the army to get involved in politics, at least not in the political turmoil then going on as a result of some disagreement between the two factions of the then Action Group, between Chief Obafemi Awolowo, the Leader of the Party, and Chief S.I.A. Akintola, the Premier of the Western Region, bellowing in Operation Wetie. The scars of those heady days of wetie are still reminiscent in today’s name-calling in Yoruba politics – Progressives and Conservatives.

But the coup took place behind Gowon’s back on January 15, 1966. When the pattern of killings in the coup became known, it raised many questions, and everyone knew that sooner than later, northern soldiers would avenge the killing of their political and military leaders, even if the Yorubas would not raise a finger to defend or revenge the killings of their own in the coup. As expected, a counter – coup by northern soldiers brought in this young, dashing military soldier, Yakubu Gowon into power. His priority was to prevent a civil war. To achieve this, Gowon wisely released all political prisoners, including Chief Obafemi Awolowo from jail and made him, fresh from prison, as Minister of Finance and Vice-Chairman of the Armed Forces Council. When on May 27, 1967, Gowon created 12 new states to replace the former intimidating three regions; Gowon won the heart and soul of the nation and virtually won the anticipated civil war. It is upon those initial 12 states that subsequent military leaders, as “Head or Tail”, Heads of State or Military Presidents, have been building to make it 36 states today, plus the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja. Who says the military has not done well to solidify this country?

The civil war came ultimately and Gowon prosecuted it with passion with one sole aim in mind: to prevent the fragmentation of the country or the secession of any part of the country. His war-cry was “To keep Nigeria one is a task that must be done”. Nigerians gave him absolute support from across all political divides, telling him in jingles on the radio: Go on with one Nigeria (GOWON). At the cessation of hostilities, Gowon’s sincerity was evident in the diligence and passion with which his Three Rs was prosecuted: Reconciliation, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction.

Nigeria quickly settled down. Nigeria breathed a sigh of relief. They soon forgot about the sufferings of the war, and started to abuse the execution of the Three Rs as avenues of corruption. Gowon’s public outcry against the then just emerging corruption in the public service in Nigeria was mischievously interpreted as a public acknowledgement of the imagined ineptitude of his government when he said, in parable, that Nigeria had money but did not know how to spend it. But have we learnt how to spend the fast dwindling which we still have, 40 or 50 years after, with the virus of corruption looting the public treasury in all spheres of our national life, in politics, in the universities and the civil service – a virus worse than Ebola?

Here is the man who refused to be intimidated by the indulgence of university teachers, even in those days. When in 1972, the Association of University Teachers AUT, as today’s ASUU was known, refused to call off their nation-wide strike. (I cannot remember for what reasons) after several governor negotiations with them, Gowon, as Visitor to the universities, and as Head of State, ordered them all to vacate the university quarters. The consequence was to awaken the mentality of university staff. Then the egg-heads realized the futility of living in government quarters (the so-called Government Reservation Areas – G.R.A.), rather than thinking of building their own houses. Of course, the strike collapsed with immediate effect, and members of the university staff started to plan the building of their own houses outside of the university campus – in Bodija, where you now have the University Crescent, in the surrounding villages of Agbowo and Orogun. Thank you, General Gowon.

Here is the man who is about the only former Head of State who, true to his pedigree from Wusasa, has not been involved in the murky Nigeria politics. He has chosen instead to pursue his pet project. Nigeria prays, as a believer in the efficacy of prayers, right from youth, which has kept him busy and active in national and international social and inter-religious, human development and humanitarian activities. A Rare Honourable Military Gentleman indeed. Ever smiling, and easily approachable, you can see humility, truth and love exuding from his personality. History will tell the rest.

My family join me in wishing General Yakubu Gowon a happy, boisterous 80th birthday and continued grace of God.
- Chief Babalola is the Alatunse of Ipetumodu
October 21, 2014
Fayose 2.0: A troubling start

Ayo Fayose’s second coming as Governor of Ekiti State is the stuff of fairy tales.

His first coming, marked by ceaseless tumult and high scandal, ended in impeachment and disgrace half-way into a four-year term. It seemed then, for all practical purposes, that he was finished politically, his future behind him.

When he ran for Senate and was decisively rejected by the voters, nobody but Fayose himself could have wagered that, some three years down the line, he would secure the PDP’s ticket, despite an EFCC indictment for sleaze on a scale almost beyond belief, and two murder raps, on the way to a grand political resurrection that would take him back to the Governor’s Lodge in Ado-Ekiti.

Such instances of redemption are rare in public life. A new, improved Fayose was widely expected to embrace it as an opportunity to chart a new trajectory, and to make up for the huge deficits in character and achievement and elementary decency that had vitiated his first coming.

But Fayose, being Fayose, is throwing the opportunity away with both hands. Well before it was time for him to take charge, he had already started stirring things up. He sought at every opportunity to denigrate the person and office of the incumbent, Dr Kayode Fayemi, and his impressive portfolio of achievements with an incendiary brew of falsehoods, half-truths and innuendo.

He countermanded Dr Fayemi, urging the public to disobey a curfew that had been imposed in the interest of public safety. He led his band of supporters to abort hearings in a petition challenging his eligibility to run for governor. In the process, they beat up officers of the court and shredded a judge’s robes, as well as court documents.

His inaugural address has, if anything, confirmed the worst fears of those who set a great store by due process and decorum in public life.

The occasion called for reaching out to all the people of Ekiti, supporters and opponents — especially opponents, assuring them that the race was over and that it was time to come together. It was certainly the moment to deploy language and ceremony and symbol to summon the polity to common purpose.

Instead, Fayose launched into triumphalism of the coarsest kind, baiting and berating his political opponents and vowing to run them not just out of Ekiti but out of the entire Yoruba land. He reminded his audience that he was the first son of Ekiti to serve as state governor twice, and the first Nigerian to defeat two incumbents.

Remarkable feats, to be sure. But to what purpose?

Instead of asking the public he had so grievously wronged during his first coming to forgive him his transgressions, he said he had “forgiven” the public for his impeachment and disgrace. But was it not his blazing lawless conduct and lack of probity that led to his downfall?

Of what use, he said, were good roads to people who had no cars and no food? He was going to cater to the infrastructure of the stomach. To the vehement cheering of the crowd, he announced that he was already breeding their Christmas chicken, and that there would be plenty of rice to go with it.

His predecessor and his team could take their urbaneness and all that came with it to “their master” in Lagos. He would continue, as of old, to eat in the roadside and makeshift stalls that his favourite people patronise, and would continue to “put something down” at the end of his visits (translation: tips large enough to pay for the entire stuff on offer). And he would continue to partake of their medicinal concoctions.

Fayose had conveniently forgotten that, in his first coming, he had shunned motor cars even where there were passable roads and had chosen instead to criss-cross Ekiti’s compact land mass in a helicopter. He had forgotten also the “integrated poultry project” on which he wasted a colossal amount of public money without producing a single egg.

Why is he so obsessed with poultry anyway? Is that the limit of his imagination?

In the manner of a conjurer or a Pentecostal preacher with an eye on the bottom line, he decreed prosperity and peace and happiness and jobs and every good thing imaginable unto the state, as if governance were a matter of just willing things into existence.

The opposition APC, he said, bore full responsibility for the fracas in the precincts of the Ado-Ekiti High Court in the run-up to the inauguration. Desperate to block his taking office, it had bribed some judges to pervert the course of justice. The appropriate authorities were looking into the matter, and those judges who had compromised their oath of office — one of them was appropriately on hand to swear him in — would face appropriate sanctions.

In the meantime, he was going to build a judiciary in Ekiti that was second to none.

And, yes, he was going to see to it that a “military formation” was set up in Ekiti. It was not clear whether he was going to pursue the project on his own, or invite the federal government, the agent of the ruling PDP, to establish a garrison in Ekiti.

Not an industrial venture, not an undertaking that would pivot on the superior educational accomplishments of the residents, but a military formation.

Like a person possessed, he has been issuing diktats abolishing, dissolving, rescinding, or suspending one thing or another, all in a bid to drive it home that a new sheriff was in town.

As speeches go, in all my adult life, I have never heard anything more divisive even in Nigeria. About the only portion of Fayose’s peroration that almost sounded conciliatory and statesman-like was where he called for a moment of silence in remembrance of those killed in election violence. But before you could accuse him of high-mindedness, he made it clear that the gesture extended only to his supporters.

In practically every respect, he was serving notice that he had come, not to be governor for all of Ekiti but governor to his supporters and a scourge to his opponents, real or perceived. He seems not to realise that his opponents are also bona fide residents of Ekiti and citizens of Nigeria, and that the Constitution enjoins him to accord them equal treatment.

Where Fayose’s inaugural address was not divisive, it read like a passage from the diary of a megalomaniac.

All in all, it was a disastrous beginning. His first coming was decidedly a farce, riddled with sophomoric stunts, like renting hens to showcase an integrated poultry project that never got off the drawing board.

His second coming has already taken on the contours of a tragedy.

October 21, 2014
Redrawing Cross River political map
The mantra of change is not new. Some believe it passionately while others hate it. Some even hate me for just the thought of it. The truth is, like it or hate it, the idea that there is a likelihood of change in the Cross River State political environment is given.ý

The funny thing about it is that the issues and events shaping this change are self-inflicted by those that are opposed to it. Simply put: Political change here is driven by sheer arrogance of power and the misread political environment that suggest that those holding temporary power hold a permanent franchise on how we think and behave politically.

Take the scenario that the powers that be are attempting to foist unpopular aspirants as PDP flagbearers on the electorates in this age and end time of an almost eclipsed influence of a dying hegemony, then you get the full picture.

I cannot speak for the Southern Senatorial District of Cross Rivers, but from interactions it is clear that the regime’s preference for a senatorial candidate is symptomatic of a system bent on destroying itself. I cannot think of a worst indifference to public opinion and a crass arrogance on how not to attempt to foist an unpopular candidate on a people. The scenario at Central is however a bit tricky, yet not entirely different. The challenger to Senator Ndoma Egba may be populist in outlook but people are beginning to think again about the reasons they are fed for on why a prominent and capable representative like the Senator should be replaced because someone said he offended his sensibilities!

It is not helpful that this candidature is offending the sensibilities of the party at the centre which sees the senator’s challenger as at best a marginal PDP member who joined the rebellion against the party to form a cabal that has served their selfish interests in the House of Representatives.

The Governor’s continued accommodation of this rebellious group in the state remains suspicious as his cozy relationship with the leadership of the rebellion has not gone unnoticed at the highest level despite his pretense at loyalty. It is remarkable that the Speaker of the House has never missed an occasion in Cross River State, even if it is a football match or an innocuous declaration or empowerment programme especially if organised by one of the members of his rebellious group who he has sufficiently empowered with juicy committee chairmanship in the House.

It makes sense to recall with hindsight that Honourable John Owan-Enoh was the first minority Leader of the Cross River State House of Assembly at inception as an elected member of APP as it then was. He only cross-carpeted to the PDP to save his career which has blossomed unbelievably under the leadership of Governor Imoke.

The questions that easily arise are: Is the governor one of the patrons of the rebellion or a mutual friend and sympathiser of it? How loyal is a friend whose friends are your “enemies”? When we as innocent citizens keep asking why our Governor, Chairman of the South South Governors’ forum from where the President comes, acclaimed bosom friend of the President and member of his kitchen cabinet, cannot influence anything to our state in four years, not even a symbolic solidarity visit, in the absence of any project for the President to come and commission, then there is a critical problem of doubtful loyalty.

The only citizens of our state who are loyal and playing at the centre of the President’s attention are not just “enemies” of our governor, they are haunted and if need be removed from office. That is the calamity of the vilification of Senator Victor Ndoma – Egba, Leader of the Senate, a very loyal member of the Senate and one of the most cerebral members of Nigeria ‘s legislature who must be stopped by force to please Governor Imoke and of Goddy Jedy Agba, who he haunted out of office as Group General Manager, Crude Oil Marketing of NNPC, before his eventual voluntary retirement.

As our dear governor prepares to bow out of office, it is clear that he does not want to leave behind any capable representative of the state at the federal level except those he has adjudged as owing personal loyalty to him and him alone. The interest of the state is secondary. One would have imagined that a state deprived of oil revenue as Cross River State will leverage on its human resources capacity to add value to its citizens by making maximum use of the experience and contacts of her citizens at the federal level. But alas! They are chased and fought to oblivion by the very people who swore to protect them in the name of politics ! ý

Thus, Senator Otu is to vacate his seat for the governor’s buddy, Gershom Bassey; Hon. Daniel Asuquo for the Governor’s cousin Dr. Emil Inyang; Hon. Essien Ayi for Dominic Oqua Edem; Hon. Nkoyo Toyo for Hon. Ita Mbora. By this calculation Hon. Frank Adah and Hon. Bassey Ewa will remain as a mark of their “meritorious” service while Senator Ayade vacates for Hon. Rose Oko.

In Governor Imoke’s calculation there should be no ranking senator from Cross River State by 2015 at the National Assembly so that he can rule Cross River State by proxy if his still-born effort at single-handedly nominating a puppet for the governorship of the state were to succeed. But for the first time, Cross Riverians are saying loudly : Enough Is Enough! And Governor Imoke is not coming to terms with this new Cross River anymore, not knowing that his conduct has radicalised an otherwise docile and peaceful people.

ýWe must make the point that it is high time we made loyalty count in PDP Cross River State! Ninety percent of the foundation members of the party have become onlookers unless you share a cult like following with the governor! That is why a retired Clerk of the House of Assembly will be foisted on the party as chairman barely two months after retirement! Meaning there was no other party member to be so trusted! ý Ninety percent of cabinet members who today, to the governor’s embarrassment, are angling to take over from him were brought in from banks, classrooms or any menial private engagement as members of the executive council and know nothing about how to even become delegates let alone contest for governorship !

What a glorious Legacy of service and loyalty our governor wants to leave as a parting gift to us all!

For those who still think the struggle is not about them, when it gets to you there will be no one else left to fight for you.

Cross Riverians think twice and shine your eyes! We need a neutral member of the party to reunite us and usher in a new direction in the approach to managing us as a people without promoting hate, discord and mediocrity in the name of “loyalty “!

The “loyalists” amongst you are the opponents of yesterday and potential opponents of tomorrow!
- Ikem, Esq, is former National Publicity Secretary of PDP.
October 21, 2014
Ekiti has done it again

Governor Ayodele Fayose assumed office Thursday last week as the new chief executive of Ekiti state and the self acclaimed state of Fountain of Knowledge, Ile Uyi, Ile Eye has been buzzing ever since. His inaugural was true to type.

In his usual swashbuckling style, Fayose berated his predecessor, Dr Kayode Fayemi for plunging the state into a huge debt, an accusation quickly rejected by the immediate past governor as lacking in common sense since records handed over to him did show the true state of Ekiti finances as opposed to Fayose’s wild allegation.

Fayose did nothing to disappoint his thousands of admirers on the day as he descended to his ‘Paraga’ level assuring the large crowd that he remains one of them as they go to their joints to drink local herbs, Agbo Jedi and Opa Eyin. He promised to take care of their stomach, saying of what use are good roads, hospitals and other social infrastructure if the stomach infrastructure was neglected.

And to demonstrate his seriousness, the governor appointed a personal assistant on stomach infrastructure to take care of his people. And in the days that followed, he promised also to appoint Liaison Officers for stomach infrastructure in each of the state’s local government areas. What a peoples’ man.

In fairness to the man, he also promised to fund education, health and other social programmes for the benefit of the people of Ekiti state. And lest I forget, he also opened the doors of the newly commissioned government house, built by his predecessor to the people of Ekiti to have a feel of the residence of their governor. And the people had a field day.

But what Governor Fayose did or did not do on that day is not my concern here. Suffice to say that he didn’t do anything unexpected. He was true to type. He even rode to the venue; Oluyemi Kayode Stadium in a vintage old Mercedes Benz car which someone described on the social media as a sign that the new leadership in Ekiti now think in the past. What an ‘uncomplimentary’ remark. One even said his half Agbada attire looked like the one you’ll find on one of those Oshodi boys. I am only reporting please.

The surprise of the day was the defection of six members of the then ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the State House of Assembly to Fayose’s Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The surprise was not their defection but the speed at which they accomplished it. I understand many more are planning to also defect from APC to PDP in the assembly just to be part of the new dispensation in the state. And that is exactly my worry. Just to be where the action is and not because it would enhance their ability to serve Ekiti people better.

I see this as part of the stomach infrastructure programme of the Fayose administration; and this is dangerous for our democracy. If I may ask; is there anything wrong in being in the opposition party? If one party controls the executive arm of government and another controls the legislature, wouldn’t that serve our democracy and the people better?

I understand the reason behind the defection was to get a sizeable number of PDP legislators in the assembly so as to topple the APC leadership to pave way for a PDP control legislature and give Fayose an easy reign. And I ask; can’t the opposition controlled legislature work with the executive controlled by another party and vice versa if both are sincere and genuinely interested in serving their people? Can’t Governor Fayose of PDP work with an APC controlled House of Assembly harmoniously in Ekiti for the benefit of Ekiti people without APC legislators cross carpeting or defecting to the ruling party? We make a mockery of our democracy if everybody keeps jumping to the ruling party at the slightest opportunity. What are those APC legislators looking for in PDP, money?

Fayose while in opposition had caucused with ACN/APC in the past, so if like Mimiko in Ondo he decides to return ‘home’ tomorrow, will those six lawmakers and others like them waiting to defect go back ‘home’ with him? These people are shameless. I am not saying politicians in elective office should not defect any time they want to but they should be made to immediately go back to their people to seek a fresh mandate under their new party.

I am not saying this because of what had just happened in Ekiti, but this issue of defection to seek greener pastures is becoming too rampant that if not checked, it could defeat the whole purpose of multi party democracy. If truly the people are the custodians of the mandate then they should be consulted by their representatives before transferring that mandate to another party.

I am sure with the current mood in Ekiti, the PDP are likely to win any election called in the state today, but I doubt whether those six lawmakers would get the PDP ticket for such election. So who is fooling who?

I think it is in the best interest of Ekiti for Governor Fayose to leave the House of Assembly and its leadership as presently constituted and forge ahead with his government’s programme. If at any time the opposition controlled legislature decides to constitute itself into a clog in the wheel of ‘progress’ of his administration the whole world would see and then Ekiti people can call them to order. He should just ignore those hungry six and others like them waiting to cross over, they are just looking for money. They are a shame to Ekiti.

Another word of advice for Fayose. He should lessen tension in the state and avoid picking unnecessary quarrel. The one he picked with the judiciary on his way to office is still there and nobody knows where and how that one would end. Engineering commotion in the Assembly would be too much even for his most loyal supporters to understand. He should not take the current ‘Hosanna’ that the people are singing today too serious, it could turn to ‘crucify him’ tomorrow at the slightest change of heart. Such is the treacherous and ephemeral nature of politics that I think Fayose, being one of the luckiest Ekiti man should understand and appreciate. But I doubt if he has learnt his lessons.

The place of Ekiti in the history of Nigerian politics especially this democracy/republic would be determined by events of the next four years and Governor Fayose should be mindful of what that history would say about him, not just in his own interest, but also that of his children. We’ve had some political juggernauts in Yoruba land in the past whose children and grandchildren today, cannot come out and be counted because of the ‘sins’ of their parents. Fayose should choose where he wants to belong.

October 21, 2014
Olumo wars

Olumo Wars, the war of attrition for the soul of Ogun State, ahead of the 2015 elections, clearly showcases the destructive intra-progressive tension, particularly in Western Nigeria.

At one end of the battle, horses neighing, cavalry charging, and a fearsome and fearless infantry darting, is Ogun Governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun (SIA), GCIR [Grand Commander of Infrastructure Renewal] — at least according to Segun Ayobolu, The Nation columnist, greatly impressed by the governor’s giant leaps in infrastructure and urban renewal.

At the other end, with a no less formidable army, is Aremo Olusegun Osoba, former governor and Akinrogun Egba.

Akinrogun, Chief Osoba’s traditional title, connotes an intrepid and war-tested brave that has savoured many glories. A traditional title never served a political battle so well! So, both camps appear sworn to a fight-to-finish.

The political progressives’ fight-to-finish would appear contemporary Nigeria’s political equivalent of the curse of Aole.

Alaafin Aole (1789-1796), petulant, baleful and vengeful, cursed his rebellious principal chiefs for triggering traditional protocols to force the Alaafin to commit suicide; thus, ending his insufferable reign. For his forced suicide, he doomed his cabinet with perennial chaos.

On the contrary, the political progressives, from the glory days of Chief Obafemi Awolowo, are mostly glorious in governance. But each time they turn upon themselves, like a band cursed by the sheer magnitude of their own successes, it is chaos without end, the Aole way.

Each time that happens, however, the people stiffly pay — and the reason is simple.

The dynamics of Nigerian politics pitches a conservative central government (almost reactionary in its stubbornness to maintain its neo-feudalistic status quo) against a Western Nigeria, which dominant progressive ideology is equally bent on opening the good life for as many additional citizens as it could possibly manage, by its welfarist policies. So, each time the progressives stutter, the people, at least in Nigeria’s South West, stagnate

Ironically, back in 2003, both SIA and Chief Osoba were part of the last undoing of the progressives in Ogun State. Though both were on opposite sides, both ended up victims.

Then Governor Osoba and his Alliance for Democracy (AD) South West gubernatorial class of 1999-2003 were adjudged long on Awoist rhetoric; but short on delivery. Besides, they struck an accord with President Olusegun Obasanjo, desperate to land a second term, to gift him the South West vote for the presidency, in exchange for all six AD governors romping in for second term. But the foxy old soldier double-crossed them, and the rest, as they say, is history.

On the victorious side was SIA, who swept out AD Senator Femi Okurounmu. But SIA soon fell out with victorious Governor, Otunba Gbenga Daniel (OGD).

To pull off this electoral coup, however, even with its rumoured electoral abracadabra, OGD had to brand himself an Awoist (which indeed he was, before the progressives meltdown en route to 2003); and a PDP progressive (which he was not, from his disastrous second term).

However, as OGD serenaded and flattered the living Awolowos, who returned the favour with their virtual endorsement of OGD as some Awo reincarnate, SIA had to endure hard ideological (more appropriately, political) reorientation, moving from PDP to ANPP, and finally to the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), one of the legacy parties, with ANPP, that formed the present All Progressives Congress (APC). He won the Ogun governorship on the ACN platform.

In his ideological wilderness, SIA felt the full brunt of an apostate fallen out with the federal ruling party; aside from the full might of OGD, who was not only in government but was fully in power. Chief Osoba, on the other hand, was serving a dignified political sabbatical in Lagos — victims both!

With this brief recap, both Osoba and SIA ought to be tempered by the emerging déjà vu. Whereas, back in 2003, OGD led the rebranded face of the PDP crafty opposition as “political progressives”; the PDP opposition, trying to steal in right now, led by Buruji Kashamu, of no known political provenance, owe no allegiance to Ikenne, or anyone.

Whereas from his Sagamu, Remo, launch base, OGD was building an altar on Awo’s progressive ideas; Kashamu, from his Ijebu Igbo base, is building a temple in the name of Goodluck Jonathan, despite that the president boasts no cutting-edge ideas, or any groundbreaking achievement from a six-year presidency.

But of course, the strategy is clear: from the Ayo Fayose victory in Ekiti despite articulating no clear programme and President Jonathan’s rather flat score card, Jonathan’s Ogun men are contriving an election regime where issues are taboo and performance doesn’t count. Yet, performance is SIA’s strongest weapon.

Worse: like President Obasanjo in 2003, President Jonathan, given the abject corruption of state coercive organs for partisan benefits in Ekiti and Osun elections, is even more desperate to have his way in 2015.

That is why SIA and Osoba must beware of the OGD nemesis — self vote-splitting. With the Ogun PDP and OGD’s Trojan horse, People’s Party of Nigeria (PPN) splitting their votes, ACN ran away with victory in 2011. With Osoba-SIA Ogun APC civil war, that possibility is real. That is why both should snap out of this war of attrition and seek mutual accommodation.

That, however, is easier said and done, with a political universe founded on recurrent injustices. The genesis of the crisis is clearly the penchant for intra-party blocs to completely dominate other tendencies, in a zero-sum-game.

Latter-day progressive, SIA, despite being governor, must have felt justifiable paranoia that the ACN old guard would squelch his ANPP new comers; just as the Osoba side could justifiably accuse the SIA gang of coming to reap on a platform to which they were new.

It was also aggravated by the schism created by the politics of the new Ogun APC executives — again, based on the foul, rather than fair, determination of each bloc to completely dominate the other.

Still, how APC or the PDP play their internal politics is strictly their business, except that intra-party injustices have a way of coming to plague the polity; and derailing much-needed development.

The important thing, however, is that in the Ogun case, the SIA government that has done so well risks self-destruction, simply because its party hierarchs are feuding. That would be unfortunate.

That is why Chief Osoba and SIA must come to mutual, just and fair accommodation. Imagine if Kayode Fayemi had won another term in Ekiti, and continued with his infrastructural achievements and futuristic programmes?

Each time the Yoruba nation tries to vault over pan-Nigeria paralysis, reactionary Yoruba politicians team up with others, from other parts of the country, to scuttle the effort. It happened in 1962/63 (1st Republic Action Group schism), 1982/83 (2nd Republic Unity Party of Nigeria crisis), 2002/2003 (present republic’s AD infiltration and destruction, by the Obasanjo presidency).

That is also the strategic tragedy of the Fayemi defeat in Ekiti.

That is why the Ogun Olumo Wars must be fought — if at all — with the hindsight of history and a foresight into the future.

Osoba and SIA owe themselves that historic burden.

October 21, 2014