The Nation Newspaper

Category: Tuesday

  • The limits of criticism

    The limits of criticism

    There is more to the scandalous exposure of the CBN Governor Sanusi Lamido Sanusi as a false whistle blower on the supposedly untidy accounting books of the nation’s petroleum sector than a section of the Nigerian Press wants us to believe.

    Ordinarily, the sensational letter from the CBN Governor to the President raising worrying issues indicating the diversion of earnings from the lucrative crude oil sales by the NNPC is a classical scoop that no newspaper will fail to publish under banner headlines. In this case both the message and the messenger combine to lend credence to the typical Nigerian hear-say and the added spice of a leaked letter could only have proved irresistible to even the most conservative of editors.

    So on the face of it, the media splash of screaming headlines and crusading editorials literally canonizing the CBN Governor for such a patriotic spilling of the beans and simultaneously bashing not just the NNPC but the entire Goodluck Jonathan Presidency, was to be expected.

    With the House Speaker’s blame game on corruption and former President Obasanjo’s hell-raising letter all hitting the headlines within a few days interval, it was indeed the opposition’s delight.

    However, the post-leakage euphoria was dramatically deflated when the Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, CBN Governor made a straight-faced admission of willful exaggeration and inexcusable negligence of official responsibility following the humiliating outcome of a rather belated reconciliation of accounts that provided damning evidence of the CBN Governor’s dishonest flippancy.

    By professional reckoning, the news value of the initial leaked letter from the CBN Governor was just as sensational as his self-indicting factual somersault before the Senate which confirmed not only that the CBN Governor misled the nation but that he did so in spite of having the facts of the matter right under his nose.

    The Press that was also clearly culpable, as the chosen weapon of mass deception by flagrant disregard of the ethics of news reporting, should have been more outraged by this fiasco than the initial “scoop” that never was. Instead, it was as if the news instincts of the editors had been suddenly turned off. Those that reported the CBN Governor’s gaffe at all tucked into inconspicuous portions of their reports, others callously stuck to the CBN Governor’s discredited whistle-blowing posturing.

    Such a bizarre twist in professional standards of news reporting and brazen adoption of bias and prejudice as hallmarks of journalism was most distasteful coming from leading newspapers that flaunt pious slogans of objectivity and fearlessness on their mastheads.

    For the avoidance of doubt, the Press deliberately played down the unpatriotic excesses of the CBN Governor who sought to out-do the political opposition in their tendency to smear and sleaze the incumbent President and government and all agencies of government more often than not, without justification.

    The incontestable fact is that the reconciliation process including the CBN Governor was satisfied that there was nothing like a 49.8 billion dollars of unremitted proceeds from crude oil sales diverted by the NNPC from the federation account. It was also confirmed that the CBN is in possession of the accounts into which the remittances were duly paid but ignored them for reasons yet to be explained by the CBN Governor.

    As if this attitude is not bad enough, weeks after the CBN Governor has himself expressed remorse over his indiscretions and the sensational press hullaballoo forced into acquiescence by the share weight of corrective information, some newspapers would still rehash discredited statements disowned by the author – the CBN Governor.

    Discerning Nigerians were aware that the 12 billion dollar figure was not only corrected to about 10.8 billion dollars by the Coordinating Minister of the Economy Ngozi Okonjo Iweala, but further clarified to represent the amount yet to be reconciled at the time of the briefing to the Senate Committee but certainly not “missing.” The needless controversy was CBN Governor’s tactless face-saving effort following his admission that his phantom figure of 49.8 Billion dollars was in fact a huge misinformation that the minister promptly debunked with convincing finality.

    The NNPC has declared that by the time the reconciliation process is completed, it will be established that the amount represents some of the responsibilities that it carries out on behalf of the federal government such as the unpaid subsidies on kerosene and premium motor spirit (PMS). Dr. Okonjo-Iweala was earlier reported to have stated that no subsidy on kerosene has been paid since she assumed office.

    It is also on record that since January 2012, NNPC has been importing a bulk of the PMS used in the country as most of the private oil marketing firms stopped importing the product. NNPC has successfully kept the nation well stocked with products, especially PMS, these past two years and the national budgets in the period did not capture subsidy to the corporation.

    Similarly, the NNPC is required to maintain huge petroleum products reserves in the national territorial waters as strategic reserves in the national interest and at the rate of 40 million litres of PMS national consumption per day, NNPC currently maintains 32 days’ sufficiency of products. The cost of pipeline vandalism and oil theft are security issues affecting over 5000 kilometers of pipelines across the country on which NNPC expends huge resources on pipeline protection and repairs, operational downtime and outright revenue loss from crude oil and product theft and willful spillage. All these make up the yet-to-be-reconciled balance of $10.8bn known to all the parties in the reconciliation process.

    With all this verified information in public circulation for weeks, it is incomprehensible that some newspapers will adamantly continue dishing out the falsehood. Sadly, there is little or no hope that the errant fringes of the Nigerian Press can be called to order in what is clearly a disservice to the citizenry. The wise citizens should therefore protect themselves from press freedom without responsibility henceforth.

    • Gwazuwang, a petroleum industry watcher wrote from Abuja.

  • Lost and found!

    Lost and found!

    If Nigerians ever needed iron-clad evidence of outlawry of their national oil corporation, weekend’s response by the General Manager, Media Relations, Group Public Affairs Department, NNPC, Omar Farouk to the firestorm over the alleged missing $10.8billion may have finally supplied one.

    Not that anyone ever doubted the farce that rules the nation’s finance system as a whole; or the plague of officials helping themselves to the national till that has long become norm. However, the latest revelation of the laissez faire conduct, the outrageously out-of-control practices by a corporation that is supposed to be a creation of statute –with active connivance of top officials of the finance ministry – may have set new limits in outlawry.

    Let’s start from the very beginning.

    Late last year, Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria, Lamido Sanusi, had alleged that the corporation failed to remit $49.8bn to the Federation Account for the period spanning 18 months – that is, between January 2012 and July 2013. The problem, as it later turned out was that the figures declared missing had failed to take into account the $39 billion paid by the Federal Inland Revenue Service, FIRS, and the Department of Petroleum Resources, DPR, into the federation account.

    I had said on this page that, coming from the nation’s top banker, the ‘omission’ was inexcusable, if not entirely irresponsible. Since then, the officials of the finance and petroleum ministries – including the NNPC, have made valiant attempts to pass off the charge as fiction even when there was still $10.8 billion unaccounted for.

    Apparently, the corporation’s weekend tale of the missing money was meant to be the final demolition job on the charge by the CBN governor. While I do understand that some so-called defence do not so qualify; the suggestion that the missing money has been spent on behalf of the federal government, is not only worse than no defence at all, it borders on the treasonable!

    Let’s look at the three-part component of how the money went as told by the NNPC’s spokesman.

    The first part, he claims represents “the expenses on some of the responsibilities, which the corporation carries out on behalf of the Federal Government with respect to domestic crude oil utilisation. One of such issues is the unpaid subsidies on kerosene and Premium Motor Spirit”.

    Here, if Nigerians are any familiar with the billions allegedly paid to the scores of ghost importers of petrol and kerosene, the tale about the value being deducted at the source from NNPC’s piggy bank on behalf of the federal government has been told so severally to the point of being wearisome. Considering that the same subsidy is also said to be charged on the excess crude account, Nigerians must wonder at what is going on.

    The same applies to the 32 days’ stock of premium motor spirit at 40 million litres of national consumption per day. Isn’t that supposed to be one-off budget? Of course, while the reserve accounting looks easy and simple and straightforward to determine upfront, NNPC and its allies in government obviously think that they require something outside the cycle of the budget to defray.

    And the third – you guessed right: the cost “of pipeline vandalism, oil theft and other security issues”.

    Again, that is supposed to be indeterminate – the kind that requires the rule of thumb to determine.

    And the three, we are told is what makes up the yet-to-be-reconciled balance of $10.8bn”!

    Should anyone be surprised at the creative account that seeks to work backwards to the answer? To be candid, the shock would have been if the reconciliation team came up with anything new?

    To begin with, for a corporation that has long acquired the image of a lawless entity, the self-indicting revelation that the quantum of national obligations – reckoned in billions of dollars – could be financed outside of the framework of appropriations can only pass on the altar of the ingrained culture of criminal impunity. Before now, the arguments about the deductibles from the federation account had always centred on the shady operational costs borne by the NNPC in the course of its activities. Quite familiar also is the creative accounting in which all manners of expenses gets passed off to the federation account.

    Now, the revelation that the corporation has a licence to do as it pleased with the federation account has finally been declared as legit!

    So, no money is missing? Only when one accepts that the beneficiaries of the accruals into the federation account actually get the amount due to them can one suggest otherwise.

    Now to the specifics: Did Finance Minister Okonjo-Iweala actually claim last year that she had not paid any subsidy on kerosene since she assumed office? At what point was it therefore charged to the NNPC account? Is a case of looking for expenses to charge to the missing money?

    The latter obviously raises the question of who authorised the payment from the NNPC accounts. Petroleum Minister Diezani Alison-Madueke? Or the NNPC board which she chairs? Does the board – if it exists – have such powers? Is it the Federal Executive Council? Could they have done so without the authority of the National Assembly?

    While Nigerians may not have bothered about the laws of the republic being broken by officials sworn to uphold the law, I guess it’s time to worry about the parallel government described as the NNPC; a quasi-government without the strictures of parliament; an entity only answerable to a conclave.

    Still want to know where the money went? Certainly, it’s not in the books. Try as the reconciliation team might, the job goes beyond reconciliation. That itself assumes that the reconcilers have the nerves to do the job. Soon enough, Nigerians would see evidence in the cities and the country-sides when our Abuja overlords unleash their war-chest for 2015. That time, it would be headache for Sanusi as it would be for everyone of us all.

    Again, it is happy New Year!

     

  • Legislative perspectives on technology convergence

    Oftentimes, human nature bestows on us the instinctive and sprawling capacity and capability to vacillate between extreme options of bad and good demeanour under varying circumstances, but the reality of modern society requires and demands that caution, restraint, modesty, monitoring supervision and reward system are needed and compelling – to establish peace, guarantee orderliness, encourage civility, imbibe fellowship, pursue egalitarianism and promote justice for the smooth, modest, organized and unfettered cohabitation and coexistence of humans everywhere.

    Thus, to all intents and purposes, various forms of governance are devised and put in place for the proper management of society to enhance peaceful coexistence, equitable distribution of resources and opportunities, engender smooth interaction within and across borders and foster unity and harmony amongst the people. The basic irreducible minimum required for the smooth running of society is the establishment of the “rule of law” to guarantee peace, order and good governance. Such an arrangement manifests in the “legislation” of virtually every sphere of human endeavour. These legislations manifest as a body of laws, rules, regulations, acts, bills, statutes, enactments and ordinances – all of which form the barometers to drive all the various sectors of society – social, economic and political.

    Please observe that all such legislations derive their potency, legitimacy, authority, inspiration and strength from the constitution of the country that ideally and ab initio represents the will, yearnings, aspirations, inspiration and resolve of the hoi polloi. Whilst giving verve to the citizenry and support to all established institutions, the essence of legislation therefore, is to observe, monitor and regulate not only the behaviour of the people as they interact – to avoid skirmishes or breaches of the rule of law, it is also designed to ensure and manage overall best practices in governance, commerce and business – thereby stimulating progress and fostering growth and sustainable development in its full ramifications. This stance and gift of legislation is even more so relevant when the popular and well-acknowledged sanctuary that could underwrite and give succour to the yearnings and aspirations of the people, is the government of the people by the people for the people – this arrangement happens to be the government of the day, here. In fact, political pundits relish and extol democracy as the best form of government currently known to man – the world over.

    In the end, every sector of society relies on legislation to operate or function well and be part of world order that is the harbinger of international best practices in all perspectives. Technology and its evolving convergence are surely part of this legislative wholesomeness.

    The foregoing is to acknowledge and underscore the incontrovertible importance of legislation as the live wire of a nation more so a developing one as Nigeria. Its impact on the concomitant services generated by the development and deployment of technology – distinct or convergent, is invaluable, as the purpose of technology itself, is to bring about welfare, security, comfort and fulfilment to the citizenry – culminating in growth and sustainable development for the country, at large.

    In the quest for comfortable, luxurious, safe and secured living especially, since the outset of industrial revolution, man has constantly and irrepressibly toiled in the cumulus waters of research, dynamic innovations and creativity to discover, develop and deploy technology – the scientific knowledge behind machinery and equipment that are meaningful and useful to humanity in time and space. The continual efforts of researchers – in the ambience of an ever-increasing demand for cognate services at the marketplace, have brought about gargantuan and meaningful developments in various fields across the globe – thus, enhancing growth and sustainable development for the socio-economic and political advancement of society. Incidentally, Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has been at the frontiers and over time, at the front burner of development – steering and managing every sector of human endeavour. Today’s ICTs are the drivers of the current global connectivity that has turned the world into a converged global village. Indeed, this growth vehicle (ICT) has turned around small and big economies and still enhancing the fortunes and prosperity of its developers and those that imbibe the culture which Information and Communications Technology (ICT) revolution brought in its trail.

    As ICT presents an indomitable and inescapable footprint and launching pad for the development of all socio-economic and political sectors, it is therefore the chosen technology on which platform we could examine technology convergence and its interplay with legislation and regulation at the marketplace. Given its sprawling impact on technology development, economic and commercial influence coupled with its widespread use across the globe, the telecoms technology as epitomized by the mobile cellular phone technology especially the GSM

    extraction, is leading the way and direction in the ICT family. The shrinking and ongoing convergence of the erstwhile distinct sectors of telecoms, computing and broadcasting or multimedia, in the face of flourishing broadband technology (fixed and mobile) is the case at issue. It is no longer flummoxing to observe that with a single piece of mobile device you could talk (voice), send text messages (data), browse the Internet (data), watch football matches or drama (video), discuss on live television and radio (media streaming), do online shopping (data), engage in mobile banking (data) or mobile music (voice), enjoy location-based services (data) like personalized weather service or real-time traffic data and also have the benefit of other information services like stocks or horoscope etc. Indeed, the list is virtually endless.

    THE CONVERGENCE ISSUE

    Technology convergence is the fusion of erstwhile distinct or separate technologies and indeed, technical entities to achieve a desired synergy of functionalities, management and more diverse and bespoke services. Thus, heterogeneous or separate technologies, systems and networks are continually brought together and implemented using common protocols to enhance uniformity, seamlessness and interoperability – thereby, providing a wider range of diverse services whilst, achieving savings in capital (CAPEX) and operational costs (OPEX) for the network and service providers. A very glaring and incontrovertible front-burner case at issue, is the Information Communication Technology (ICT) in which networks merge, markets merge, services merge and users even merge – all, eliciting a total convergence in the evolutionary ICT domain. Indeed, the convergence between fixed and mobile networks and services often referred to as Fixed and Mobile Convergence (FMC) in the ambience of robust broadband technology that is rapidly diffusing and closing the hitherto, distinct boundaries of Telecoms, Computing and Broadcasting or multimedia sectors, has brought about a number of policy, legislative and regulatory issues.

    LEGISLATION AND REGULATION

    The aftermath of globalization of the recent past culminated in the deregulation of the entire marketplace albeit, in varying degrees and also laden with geocentric hue across the globe. Whilst deregulation encourages and promotes competition thereby allowing markets forces to determine pricing regimes and other market processes and procedures, the need to protect consumers from unwholesome and unbridled practices of some industry practitioners – for instance, incumbent or dominant operators, however, has become exceedingly necessary and imminent.

    To all intents and purposes, legislation gives the regulation of ICT – both in its distinct forms and divergent character, the empowerment and teeth with which to bite and reprimand any erring network or service provider who contravenes any provision of the licence conditions in the course of providing services, irrespective of location – within and across borders. Essentially, such sanctions and penalties that regulators impose for market abuse as a post-licence oversight responsibility, range from monetary fines – a percentage of company’s turnover, modification of licence and additional licence obligation, to outright licence revocation.

    The policy, legislative and regulatory challenges that are thrown up at the instance of ICT convergence are mainly on licensing with its attendant reverberations. Ab initio, specific services or a generic group of services were deserving of separate licences but with convergence, a service provider can now deliver multiple services (converged) to a customer with a single subscriber number on which one bill is raised, and the customer is also served from a single integrated network rather than two distinct (fixed and mobile) terminals. Incidentally, such a flexible service provisioning that obliges a consolidation of different services in a generic categorization or the unification of all services under a single licence or concession referred to as a “Unified Licence” also promises a reduction in operational costs and complexity.

    This convergence posturing that is being adopted worldwide, as opposed to the traditional service-specific orientation, is based on the principles of technology and service neutrality.

    There is also the so-called licence-exempt case that is a total departure from the erstwhile licensing procedures. Here, most administrative and traditional formalities are jettisoned giving way to ordinary registration or even simple notification to the regulator of the intent to offering services.

    Although a wider range of services have been brought into the fold through these over-simplified and flexible reforms, policy-makers and legislators alike are still mulling over the reverberations these reforms are gradually seeping into the industry and marketplace. However, this challenge does not detract anything from the recognition the reforms are giving the rights and obligations of network and service providers. Other important areas of interest where consideration is essential include, spectrum assignment and use, interconnection and numbering scheme.

    •Bello, A former Managing Director of NITEL presented this paper at West Africa Convergence Conference in Lagos

  • Matters arising

    Matters arising

    Six hours before they rang in the new year, I was already responding to wishes of Happy New Year with great diffidence.

    I was hoping that, no later than June 2014, when the municipal power supply will be so abundant that private generators would become sentimental archaisms, I would be able to snag up one at a bargain price for the house up-country as an insurance against any relapse of the bad old days of darkness.

    Going by what President Goodluck Jonathan had given the public to understand some three years ago, generators would no longer be the prized assets that they were; they would be little more than junk and just a shade less than toxic machinery, and their owners would be locked in a fierce competition to determine who could give them away fastest – “dash” them out —as Dr Jonathan phrased it.

    My dream generator was a 25KVA affair that could light up the premises and power all the appliances in full throttle. I harboured no illusion that I would qualify for that kind of dash or any dash for that matter from Aso Rock. But I was hoping that if they decided to auction the gensets (shorthand for generating set) instead of dashing them out, I might with some luck post a successful bid for one on offer.

    Imagine my disappointment, then, when I read an advance copy of Dr Jonathan’s New Year message in this newspaper saying that despite the great progress that has been made in that sector, no more than 18 hours of electricity a day was guaranteed for 2014. For 18, read 12 hours of power supply on the average.

    No individuals and no organisations, it is now clear, are going to be auctioning their generators, much less dashing them out. In fact, Aso Rock, which had floated that beguiling idea, has wisely provided some N700 million in its budget for the fueling and maintenance of its gensets that are said to number close to a hundred. With that kind of hardware to manage and coordinate, it is a surprise that they do not have a cabinet-rank Senior Special Adviser on Generators in residence.

    As things stand now, it is unlikely that I will be able to acquire the genset of my dream this year, or even the next. Not a promising note to start a new year.

    A friend tells me that the uncle of his grand nephew also entered the 2014 on a note that is just as discomposing. On learning several months ago that the government was set to privatise Nigeria’s oil refineries that had been advertised for decades as irreparably broken, he had raided his investment portfolio to position himself to function as a major player whenever the plants come under new management, convinced that privatisation is just what is required to turn them into high-yield gold mines.

    The announcement had been made by the Minister of Petroleum Resources, Ms Diezani Alison-Madueke, no less, in London, before an audience of hard-headed businessmen and women who can sniff an investment opportunity from a thousand miles. That was good enough for the uncle of my friend’s grand nephew, who is as cagey as they come in this business.

    The well-known fact that the Minister has the President’s ear to at least the same extent as the Princess Stella Oduah, boss of the scandal-plagued Ministry of Aviation, virtually settled the matter. Even if Dr Jonathan had not confirmed from on high that that the refineries were indeed marked for privatisation, the uncle of my friend’s grand nephew would still have considered the whole thing a done deal.

    You cannot imagine how shattered he was when word came from Aso Rock the other day that the refineries were not slated for privatisation, that no decision had been taken to that effect, and that no Minister – not even one who has the President’s ear, they should have added – could take it upon herself to contemplate, much less actualise, such a proceeding.

    Those elusive foreign investors, disobliging even when there is policy consistency backed by attractive inducements, can hardly be blamed if they concluded that Nigeria is not yet safe for capital and that they are better off taking their funds to friendlier climes. I hope Dr Jonathan and his oil minister will offer them and the nation’s creditors, not forgetting the IMF, clear and convincing answers for this policy somersault.

    In this season of goodwill, it is meet and proper to dwell on one image of Dr Jonathan that brightened my holiday, in case you missed it. The picture shows him in a church or chapel, surrounded by the faithful, an acoustic guitar strapped across his shoulder. It was not clear whether he was preparing to strum or had just finished strumming the guitar.

    But it was clear that he is a practised performer on that instrument at praise worship, most likely of the traditional type rather than gospel pop. For, I cannot imagine him rocking and swaying and strumming lustily as the band belts out tunes evocative of rock ‘n’ roll or rhythm and blues.

    But who knows! It may well be that such a setting offers him a chance to shake off that starchy gait, to loosen up, to escape from the burdens of office and savour the kind of life he has not known since they railroaded him into this presidency thing.

    If that is the case, I say ride on. Mr President. That office needs to be humanised the way President Bill Clinton humanised his office when he donned sun glasses and played the sax in prime time on the Arsenio Hall Show.

    President Barack Obama humanises the office not just by the way he relates to his daughters in public, but by playing basketball with his friends on the White House grounds. Pardon me for inserting him into this matter, but your predecessor, our own Olusegun Obasanjo, did the same through his exertions playing squash. He still plays squash these days when not writing missives.

    Can The Presidency imagine how electrified the audience and indeed the nation would be if Dr Jonathan were to shed his habitual resource-control outfit or his federal-character ensembles for snazzy Giorgio Armani suit or designer casuals and take the stage at a cool nightclub in Abuja –no, Lagos – to accompany the resident band on his guitar and may be throw in a solo rendition as a bonus?

    It would be worth at least a million additional votes in 2015.

    And if Aso Rock were to take the road show nationwide, with Information Minister Labaran Maku in tow preaching the Gospel of Transformation and Agriculture Minister Akinwumi Adesina heralding the end of hunger as Dr Jonathan’s guitar belts out stirring tunes, this could turn around the PDP’s sinking fortunes, lock up the 2015 race, and shame all those noisy defectors.

  • Anambra 2013, Ekiti, Osun 2014

    Anambra 2013, Ekiti, Osun 2014

    No matter the partisan fealty, ethnic grandstanding or media posturing, the Anambra gubernatorial polls of 2013 did not pass the muster of a clean poll.

    However the courts decide the case, Willy Obiano, the declared winner, is not about to play Umaru Musa Yar’ Adua: clutching his controversial prize, if he wins at the courts, but conceding his victory is near-fatally tainted. That would be too stiff an admission for the nasty realpolitik that propelled Mr. Obiano.

    Still, there is gripping moral from vote fiddling — and Mr. Obiano need not look far: Governor Peter Obi, his benefactor and former Governor Chris Ngige, his electoral rival.

    Indeed, the contrast between Mr. Obi and Dr. Ngige is stark, bordering on the dramatic. From the stigma of a court-nullified poll, former Governor Ngige emerged the face of sane governance in Awka, a fresh liberating force from the ruthless clamp of Anambra election fixers.

    It was the political equivalent of a Saul turned Paul, so much so that Ngige’s gubernatorial exploits provided him the spur to romp to senatorial victory a few years later.

    On the other hand, Governor Obi, acclaimed beneficiary of a court-reclaimed mandate, should have been an uncompromising ambassador of clean polls. But his unabashed association with the abjectly flawed Anambra 2014 vote — that was the near-unanimous verdict of poll observers — may well be the electoral equivalent of a Paul turned Saul!

    Still, in Nigeria’s polity of convenience, ideals might indeed be desirable, but what rules the roost is crass expediency. So, it is with Governor Obi, proud prince of electoral rectitude unfazed by electoral turpitude, and Mr. Obiano, his protégé!

    But let no one think Anambra 2013 was a one-off accident or debacle; particularly with Prof. Attahiru Jega, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) chair, entering his usual post-debacle default setting of piping INEC would use lessons learnt to improve on future polls. If you believe that, you probably would believe anything!

    Indeed, Anambra 2013 was a dress rehearsal for Ekiti/Osun 2014, just as Ondo 2012 prepared the grounds for the Anambra manipulation. Any wonder then that like Rotimi Akeredolu, SAN, in Ondo, Dr. Ngige, the major opposition candidate in Anambra came third, not second, at the polls?

    The parallels are just too stark to ignore! The constant, of course, is an ultra-desperate Jonathan Presidency.

    In Anambra, the win of Obi’s protégé was absolutely strategic for Jonathan’s lifeline in the 2015 sweepstakes, even if Obi is an All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) member, and a PDP candidate was in the race.

    In Ekiti/Osun gubernatorial polls 2014, Governor Olusegun Mimiko, another Jonathan ally, would labour (every pun intended!) to deliver for presidential protégés (Labour candidate in Ekiti and PDP candidate in Osun), to return an earlier presidential favour; and gift himself life after two gubernatorial terms.

    Again, with a crumbling PDP, such foothold in the South West would give the troubled president a bounce in his desperation to remain president post-2015 — at all cost, if necessary. Again, it is no coincidence that Mimiko belongs, not to PDP, but to Labour.

    Labour! At best a platform of convenience, at worst a platform of perfidy, and in-between a platform of vacuity, Mimiko’s LP has perhaps the worst brand equity in Nigeria’s troubled democratic polity.

    Both party and leader perfectly fit each other though, for Mimiko’s opponents would swear — and not without good reasons — that he is unrepentant master of the political self, in which serial perfidy is a ready political tool.

    Still, Jonathan’s impunity-powered political manoeuvring and Mimiko’s predictable perfidy would not have mattered much, if the South West progressives-in-government had not manifested, yet again, that penchant to self-destroy. The Ekiti/Osun elections ought to have been a breeze, given the admirable toil of the sitting governments. Yet, they are condemned to toiling hard for victory, especially in Ekiti. Should Ekiti fall, the spectre of an illicit “bandwagon” is real.

    In Osun, the Ogbeni-Governor, Rauf Aregbesola, has his own challenges; and the opposition strategy would be to drum up the religious divides, insisting the Mullah of their malevolent imagination was bent on some Islamist agenda; and calling the other side to electoral arms.

    But it is doubtful if the gambit would work. For one, the governor works hard and hollers even louder about it. For another the projects are so groundbreaking even the sensory-challenged can feel them, not to talk of citizens endowed with full faculties. Besides, whatever Osun PDP would offer, with balance of forces on ground, are likely to be no more than lambs led to the electoral slaughter.

    Then, the governor mobilises, mobilises and mobilises, starting with incessant fixing of the infrastructure of the mind, apart from touching grassroots flesh with his monthly walk-for-life manoeuvres. He calls it health walks. But old Action Group (AG) veterans could well call it “Gbogbo Igba, E stand by” — “On the ready, always” in straight English! Those who claim “federal might” would try, but Osun may well be a suicide mission for any electoral hanky-panky!

    Ekiti, unfortunately, would appear less clear cut. And The Punch solid interviews with Governor Kayode Fayemi (7 December 2013) and budding challenger, Opeyemi Bamidele (28 December 2013), underscore the quagmire: why is Ekiti so blest that the ruling party there had to invent credible electoral opponents where there was none?

    Beyond demonisation and lionisation, the bastion of the emotive, Mr. Bamidele could have played for painful patience, thus playing Pericles, the wise Greek who endured forced banishment to later trump his foes to become the greatest Athenian lawgiver ever. By defecting to Labour however, he appears to have played Coriolanus, the rash Roman, who allowed his traducers to push him into fatal enemy embrace, and ended in abject ruin.

    Should Mr. Bamidele fail, he faces possible political destruction. Should he win, he would engineer a further South West progressive fissure, the nemesis of sane governance and sustainable development in the region. Either is no flattering epigram to a promising political career.

    But the Fayemi gubernatorial court is no less indicted in this sorry pass. For tact, they embraced swashbuckling spin and media demonisation, bordering on wilful denial. For clinical thinking, they embraced emotive grandstanding that worsened the conflict. Now, those hawks in Fayemi’s court have to walk their talk!

    Again, deja vu, ala 2003: gifting the Ekiti opposition life they don’t deserve! The definitive difference though, is that whereas the South West Gubernatorial Class of 1999-2003 were perceived to have generally underperformed, the present breed are perceived general high performers.

    The Ekiti electorate would probably be loath to waste their vote for another Fayose-era paralysis. But you can bet the opposing column to give it their best shot, cook the vote and claim illicit victory from the Ekiti progressives’ “civil war”!

    If that spectre is real, then the Ekiti warriors have not learnt from history. That is a big shame.

    Even then, before any desperado blunders into skewing the vote: in the South West, electoral robbers always pay hefty prices!

  • From my crystal ball

    It’s been boom time for the practitioners of the futurological art of crystal gazing. Not that there could have been a better season for our hordes of diviners to spew forth all manners of strange brews described as “prophecy” than the countdown to a new year. The cult of Nostradamus has not disappointed with their pronouncement on virtually everything under the sun: from politics to finance, commerce, energy, and security – just name it. It is a measure of the attraction to the undying art that the practice has flourished over the years, more so in our clime.

    And what have they said?

    Common to all is the prognosis of a difficult year ahead, a defining one at that.

    Let me say also that I have done some crystal gazing and therefore share in the general premise that the incoming year has all the elements to make it a defining year. I start with the tectonic shifts in alliances that birthed All Progressives Congress, (APC). If that marked the emergence of an opposition finally poised to wrest power from the arrogant PDP, it is in another respect, a clarion call to battle on several fronts.

    Does anyone see mere coincidence in the so-called industrial scale theft in the oil sector and the financial scorched-earth policy visited on the states for the most part of 2013? I mean the dubious alibi of oil theft, in which the federal government and its fellow-traveller in perfidy, the NNPC, would seek to leave the states enfeebled? Does anyone rule that out as the beginning of the process of weaponisation of the instrument of federal allocation?

    So what to expect in the incoming year?

    Richter-scale level of theft in the oil sector? Full-scale weaponisation of the fiscal instrument in the hands of our rampaging bull in the China shop? More brazen absurdities in the computation of the distributable pool by the NNPC?

    Obdurate states had better beware.

    Here is what the crystal ball shows for the coming months: the states can make all the noise in the world about the cheating game at the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) meetings, nothing would change. The behemoth is not about to budge. Rather, expect the behemoth with a hefty 54 percent to continue to play the thief-catcher with states whose allocations average less than one per cent. That is how it’s always been; and so would be in 2014 and beyond.

    By the way, you don’t expect the federal government with its awesome power of patronage to engage with objectors in its rank and file; it’s a sign of weakness. So, in 2014, it’s fight to finish.

    As an aside, more of state government officials should expect to be unwilling guests of the EFCC. Jigawa and Kano are already in; Rivers, Sokoto, Kwara and possibly Niger should beware. This, the oracle says, is only a dress rehearsal for their war on corruption. As for the stench oozing from their backyards the latest of which came from Stella Oduah’s Aviation House of sleaze, it is supposed to be proof of the administration’s affirmative action that big time impunity pays!

    So what is for the ordinary man on the street in terms of governance in 2014?

    Time again to consult the crystal ball.

    I start with the power sector – a sector that many have come to accept as offering the brightest prospects of a turn-around. Nigerians by now must be wondering what the hoopla was after the successful take-over of the PHCN entities by the private sector. Here again, the problem appears to me as the tendency to confuse the means for the end. No one argues about the fact that the retention of the PHCN in the hand of government is akin to a sentence of death on an already comatose sector. But then, it is also not the same as suggesting that a mere change of ownership is all there is to it to make things happen?

    Now, I must say that the problem is not unknown. Neither is the solution rocket science. The problem is that of under-investment of the past years. The solution is to bridge the service gaps in the shortest possible time. And the way to do that is to invest massively in new technologies and business models to improve on service delivery.

    This is where my crystal ball tells a different story. As far as the prospects of improvement go, 2014 may end up as a disappointment. To start with, the new wonder owners of the power entities haven’t even begun to convince us that they know what the business entails let alone what they need to put in place to turn the sector around. Now, Nigerians are fast finding out the world of difference between abdication and liberalisation – the result of the astounding bad faith and ignorance across the board.

    My crystal ball tells me that 2014 is the year of awakening for all.

    Now to Olusegun Aganga’s so-called auto-policy. If ever a policy was conceived in conceit and ignorance, that policy must be it. What’s the idea if one may dare to ask? To join the league of auto manufacturers? Now, that is supposed to be grand except that in this instance, the minister would rather we start building our houses from the roof.

    You ask: how does a 100 percent hike of auto duty assist Aganga’s phantom auto assemblers in an economy where the existing capacity is next to zero? Where is the infrastructure? Or is it simply about producing some fanciful contraptions that no one would be able to buy? If I may be more specific, where is the infrastructure of credit to make his grand dream sustainable in the long run? Or is Aganga thinking of made-for-government only vehicles? Why the hurry to inflict punitive tariff on car importers in 2014?

    If anyone ever needed evidence of how detached some of our policy makers are from reality, that so-called auto policy is one. Thanks to Olusegun Aganga, our long-suffering middle class will suffer the affliction of paying more for their favourite tokunbo just to satisfy the whims of some high-minded officials. The same is no less true of Aganga’s kinsman in the Agriculture Ministry who has already moved to ban rice import when he cannot even guarantee local sufficiency.

    As for the unprecedented youth unemployment, the ostentation in the midst of ravaging poverty, the corruption in high places, the day of reckoning is certainly near! At least that is what my crystal ball says.

    Happy New Year to all!

  • Centenary fixations

    Centenary fixations

    At last, comes tomorrow, 1 January 2014: the centenary of Nigeria’s amalgamation by the British Lord Frederick Lugard!

    And come 4 February 2014, a 20-month chain of activities would kick off, with “legacy projects” nationwide, led by a new Abuja city gate and a Centenary City in Abuja, modelled after the likes of Dubai, Monaco, Shenszhen, Singapore and Songdo (in South Korea), which will gulp a cumulative private sector investment of US $15 billion of which, according to Anyim Pius Anyim, secretary to the Federal Government, the Jonathan Presidency would not spend a kobo.

    “We must celebrate Nigeria”, former Senate president Anyim had declared on 24 January 2013 at a press briefing in Lagos, “because if we cannot underscore the essence and advantages of our unity, it means we plan to promote disintegration.” How about that for some mechanical piece of thinking!

    While a good number of Nigerians are nonplussed by the Lugardian patch-patch, even if not a few think it would have been a fantastic rainbow if it had not been so hugely dysfunctional, President Goodluck Jonathan, the latest beneficiary of the toxic Lugardian court, and his coterie of revellers, would rather celebrate!

    Such is the Jonathan Presidency’s fixation with Nigeria’s centenary celebrations.

    Lugard, of course, was a patriot. From Asia to Africa, from India to Nigeria, Lugard was a thoroughbred poster child of empire building — empire, that political euphemism for economic banditry. The Brits themselves picked no bones about such banditry, Pax Britannica!

    The marauding, might-is-right logic that made Queen Elizabeth 1 (1533-1603) to knight Sir Francis Drake (1540-1596), the patriotic pirate, because his sea-crested loot redounded well with home country, was the mandate that powered Lugard, et al: go forth, plunder and pacify the natives in the name of home country; but sell the pacified natives the dummy of a superior religion and culture! Pax Britannica!

    Lugard did his duty to his country. But in doing that, he created another headache: the Nigerian conundrum, that would be 100 years tomorrow.

    This centenary, therefore, is a toast to British greed. But it is also sobering juncture for a political amalgam that seems incapable of gelling into a harmonious compound; a supposed federation that spectacularly miscarried, a beacon that became a mirage: leaving the people distraught, disoriented and near-hopeless!

    The snag is: all these appear lost on the Jonathan Presidency.

    Or could the centenary fixation be some expensive escapism, the Jonathan government’s fond hope of burying the unwholesome fundamentals under a din of pomp?

    If so, it would be hardly surprising. The Nigerian people can gnash their teeth all they want. But for their rulers, it has been a ceaseless party, from the time of Lugard till now!

    Indeed, the Lugard spirit — that grim plundering ethos of a soldier-ruffian — never left the Nigerian power court. But whereas Lugard patriotically plundered, as Drake patriotically pirated, for Mother Britain, his Nigerian relay of successors have often fended for themselves. That tradition was well established before Goodluck Jonathan, the man from Otuoke, the minority of minorities from the Niger Delta, became president.

    Of all Jonathan’s predecessors, there appears no exception: not the sanctimonious Olusegun Obasanjo; not the charming but power wayward Ibrahim Babangida; not the stark and grim Sani Abacha.

    That feisty, borne out of self-help, appears the logical explanation for the centenary pomp in the ruling court, when the majority of Nigerians continue to agonise over 100 years in the wilderness, and how to break out of the cul-de-sac, and build a vibrant and vigorous Nigerian federation, that can deliver development and prosperity, from the present retardation and corruption.

    Still, no matter how conceptually flawed the centenary programme is perceived, there would appear some sweeteners.

    For starters, the promise of 15, 000 jobs in public works, to be generated in building the new Abuja gate and the Abuja Centenary City, would be more than welcome to the large army of Nigeria’s jobless youths.

    No less tantalising are the projected ICT centres in all Nigerian universities that do not have one, a modern library in a university in each of the six geo-political zones, one police crime laboratory in each of the six geo-political zones, building and renovation of sports facilities in each of the federal universities and the renovation, naming and renaming of colonial sites in the country.

    Also on the cards is a dialysis centre in each of the six geo-political zones; and renovation and upgrade of the National War Museum in Umuahia, Colonial History museums in Lokoja and Aba, and the National Museum inside the Old Residency in Calabar, Cross River State.

    But underpinning the projects is Nigeria’s ever-recurring nemesis: over-centralisation in a supposed federation. By the centenary plans, each state would be proud host to a Unity Square. Did the idea emanate from the states themselves or was it a central agenda, in the federal government’s mechanical fixation with “unity”?

    And how much evidence is there that the states would go with “unity squares” and not some other investments in schools, hospitals and roads: other more pressing areas where the locals feel their shoes really pinch?

    Besides, how much of it was driven by a contract-award mentality, itself driven by illicit money to be skimmed from the projects; and how much by the actual needs of the beneficiary communities?

    But beyond rectitude and turpitude, the Centenary programmes reek of misplaced priorities. It is surprising, really, that a government that would endure closing down Nigerian universities for nearly six months, because it claims it had no money to meet the demands of the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) had, long before, proclaimed the projected centennial budget a done deal, even if many of those projects, to be fair, are nothing but white elephants.

    Besides, Budget 2014 estimates shows a Jonathan Presidency clearly in centennial spending mood!

    First, our zoologist president would, according to newspaper reports, blow N14.5 million on two brand new animals for the Aso Villa zoo! Then our nomadic president has proposed N2.3 billion for local and international travels 2014. To make these trips as comfortable as possible, the presidency is shopping for a new jet — the 11th in the fleet — for which some N1.5 billion would be deposited in the next financial year!

    Lord Lugard wired Nigeria together, not to develop the territory, but to empty it for the voracious British Empire. That is no event to celebrate, except to forge a counter-paradigm to develop Nigeria; and deliver happiness and prosperity to its people. But the Jonathan Presidency clearly thinks otherwise!

    Despite the promise of a national dialogue (hailed by presidential sympathisers but slammed by the opposition as another Jonathan dissembling antic), Nigeria moves into its centenary in a din of confusion, its structural problem getting more acute, and the state itself wobbling under its patent contradictions. Again, that is hardly anything to celebrate!

    Who will save the Lugard patch-patch from its modern day Nero, salivating for a big party, when there is virtual fire on the roof?

     

    • Despite everything, a happy new year to readers of this column.

  • Lagos: Sustaining the gains of 2013

    Without doubt, Lagos State has recorded lots of successes in various sectors in the outgoing year. In terms of budget execution,  government posted a third quarter performance of 70 percent for the 2013 Budget. The shortfall from an aggregate half year performance of 72 percent to 71 percent is attributed to revenue shortfall and delay in remittances of national statutory allocations.

    Ensuring easy access to qualitative heath care remains top priority of the state government. This is being partly done through the Free Medical Mission of which the 29th edition was recently held in Badagry where over 10,000 residents benefitted. In continuation of its plans to take health care to the grassroots, the state government recently handed over yet another flagship Primary Healthcare Centre, the sixth in the series, to the Oregun Community in Onigbongbo Local Council Development Area. The initiative has brought about significant reduction in the indices of infant and maternal mortality across the State. The number of children dying at birth or during pregnancy has now reduced significantly . All of the things that people go for at the General Hospitals like HIV screening , cancer screening, Diabetes, Hypertension, Malaria treatment, Tuberculosis, immunization of children, antenatal care, normal and uncomplicated pregnancies and so on all can be done at the primary health centre.

    In terms of infrastructural renewal, the state government has remained unrelenting in its determination to achieve a new Lagos that will be the pride of all. Governor  Fashola recently used the occasion of the last Democracy Day on May 29 to commission the new Lekki-Ikoyi Bridge for the use of the good people of Lagos. The bridge, the first cable/suspended bridge in the entire West Africa, abounds in creative splendor. The 1.38km bridge connects Ikoyi-Alexander Street to Lekki-Admiralty Way.  Other on-going  projects of the government include the Okokomaiko to Marina Light Rail project, Adiyan Waterworks, Lagos Badagry Expressway, Apapa CBD Road Networks, Mushin-Isolo Road, Isolo-Isheri-Ijegun Link Bridge, Ayinke House Maternity Hospital and the Atlantic Shoreline protection project among others.

    In the outgoing year, the state has equally opened up and handed over more inner roads across the state, among these are the newly constructed Market Road in Badagry , 16 roads in Mushin and the newly handed over Kodesoh Street and Simbiat Abiola road in Ikeja , all of which are installed with street lights. The new roads have  been provided with cable ducts to avoid the need to cut any part while trying to lay cables. These roads will complement the good works done on the highways and other inner roads to make travelling easy and faster.     Presently, government has dredged the waterways; a 40 minutes boat ride from Central Lagos into Badagry. The whole idea is to tackle transportation in the state through the inter-modal model.

    With regards to food security and youth empowerment, the graduation of Courses 2, 3 and 4 trainees of the State’s AGRIC  Youth Empowerment Scheme ( Agric – Yes) took place recently. The growth of the four-year old programme is a quantum leap from an idea that has become a reality. The official handover of 32-tonnes capacity per day high quality cassava flour mill and a 50, 000 capacity automated five-unit broiler houses, among other facilities of the training institute , were some of the highlights of the ceremony. The progress and achievements recorded by the AGRIC-YES programme in such a short time showed that what is needed to boost food production in the country was a clear idea, a clear plan and unflinching commitment to implement those plans. Other facilities handed over to the institute at the ceremony were 200 units of two-bedroom apartments for farmers, Ram ranch/ feed mill of 64-tonne capacity per day and 234 kilometre road network within the training institute.

    In the area of security, the state government has continued to expand the operational scope of the Lagos State Security Trust Fund. To this end, it hosted the Fund’s 7th Annual Town Hall Meeting on Security with an assertion that the collective investment of the state and citizenry in crime prevention is paying dividends visible in lower crime rates when compared with last year. Progress being recorded from year to year through the initiative, has developed a security apparatus that has improved upon what was inherited. The security of life is not just about putting armed men on the streets but also about thinking and formulating policy initiatives that helps to protect the life the of the average resident of the state. The state’s investment in crime prevention and reduction is yielding result as reflected in data provided at the event. The data base helps government to keep in track with all those who come in contact with the criminal justice system by providing and collecting data of such people. It is noteworthy to state that a year after the State Traffic law was enacted; the incidences of motorcycle related robberies reduced from about 60percent in 2012 down to 16 percent in 2013.

    In its drive to make Liquefied Petroleum Gas, LPG, the number one choice for domestic cooking in the state, the state government has commissioned yet another Skid Plant in Ikorodu. One of the priorities of the administration is to revamp and reposition the energy sector in the megacity to enable it play its role in the socio-economic and environmental development of the state. As part of on -going initiative to improve the power situation in the state, Governor Fashola commissioned 10.6 MW Alausa Power Project that would power the entire State Secretariat, Alausa and  part Obafemi Awolowo Way. The State Independent Power Project, has helped in lighting up  several places and landmarks like the Carter bridge which is a very critical bypass into Lagos which was abandoned for many years because it was unsafe , as Simpson street in Lagos and the Ramp on Marina close to the Third Mainland Bridge. Twelve streets have equally been recently lit up in Alimosho area and is already having enormous economic benefits.

    In the area of  dispensation of justice, the governor recently commissioned the combined High/ Magistrate Courts in Ikorodu, which he renamed in honour of the third indigenous Chief Judge of Lagos, Ademola Candide- Johnson. The event signposts a process that broadens the pathway for access to justice for the people. When it is fully understood that democracy without emphasis on the rule of law and law and order means nothing, the significance of the new courts would be understood.

    Undoubtedly, the outgoing year has been a successful one for the state government. As usual, plans are in top gear to sustain current gains in the coming year . There are two more power plants to come as government continues to focus on public power, schools, hospitals, streetlights, courtroom and other institutions. Sports and youth development, education, rural development among others, remain top priorities of the state government in 2014. Indeed, no stone would be left unturned in order to ensure that Lagosians continue to enjoy the dividends of democracy in 2014.

    I wish you all a glorious and eventful 2014. Happy new year !• Ibirogba is Honourable Commissioner for Information and Strategy, Lagos

  • December 2013: A month in missives

    December 2013: A month in missives

    When the history of these tempestuous times in Nigeria comes to be written, December 2013 will go down as The Month of Missives.

    The blizzard was set off by an 18-page missive from former President Olusegun Obasanjo to Dr Goodluck Jonathan, whose dizzy rise from the obscurity of deputy governor of Bayelsa State to vice president, en route to becoming president, Obasanjo had orchestrated. Obasanjo had in the same manouevre railroaded Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, governor of Katsina State, into the office of President

    Settling for these men when far more capable aspirants were available and willing will forever cast a pall on Obasanjo’s judgment.

    To return to the missive: It was vintage Obasanjo – blunt as a punch to the nose. I rather like the earthy Yoruba expression a correspondent employed to describe the matter, but I cannot reproduce it here even in loose translation, this being a newspaper for the entire family, enjoined to dwell only on whatsoever is of good report.

    Let us just say that my correspondent likened the missive in all its bluntness to a kick in the groin.

    Other than the charge that the Jonathan Administration was training a squadron of snipers at a secret location, there was nothing in Obasanjo’s missive that the attentive audience does not encounter daily in the newspapers, in the so-called social media, and in their workaday lives.

    Shortly after Dr Jonathan took office, I asked one of his top advisers whether he was up to the task. His reply: “Without hesitation, no.” And the adviser reeled out instance upon instance that led him to that judgment. Several senior officials close to Dr Jonathan also concurred in that evaluation when I put the same question to them.

    Given the special scrutiny my passport has received in the past three years upon my arrival at Murtala Muhammed Airport, I have good reason to believe, as Obasanjo has charged, that the Administration maintains a Watch List. Some prominent media figures of my acquaintance are also often subjected to the same wanton attention at Passport Control

    Many have argued that even if the missive was on target, as indeed it was, the author was not morally qualified to issue it; that many of the grave deficiencies he identified in the Jonathan record could be traced to his own tenure, and that he had not merely set a ghastly example for his estranged protégé, he had also guided him to follow it through. The pupil, they maintain, has learned only too well from his tutor.

    There is some merit to that reasoning.

    Still, doesn’t every parent expect his children to transcend his or her own inadequacies, to succeed where the parent failed, and altogether to chalk up a superior record of achievement? That, I suspect is the basis of Obasanjo’s disenchantment, that Dr Jonathan has not measured up to his expectations. It is now clear that he did not know his “son” well enough to nurse such expectations

    The sandbagging proved too much even for the usually meek pupil, and he has struck back using every available platform and occasion – in a BBC interview from Paris, in Nairobi, Kenya, and at church services, naming no names but leaving no doubt about whom he has in mind – those who regard not just the Presidency but the entire country as their personal bedroom.

    The centerpiece of his response was a blockbuster missive designed to counter almost point by point Obasanjo’s charges. It is competent in part but perfunctory overall. Polemically, there is little to recommend it. In substance, it was less than a robust rebuttal. I doubt whether it changed any minds.

    What must be seen as a far more damaging response to Obasanjo’s withering missive came in the form of another missive said to have been written by his daughter Iyabo, most recently a “distinguished senator,” to employ the inflated appellation members of Nigeria’s upper house of the National Assembly have bestowed on themselves to match their obscene, self- assigned material privileges.

    For sheer scurrility, it would be hard to match. In fact, I am almost prepared to state that, if it is confirmed beyond a reasonable doubt that she wrote the missive, it will go down as one of the most contumacious ever written by a child to a parent. It is perfused with contempt, ridicule, scorn, and loathing abhorrence of the most visceral kind.

    There are reasons aplenty for doubting that she wrote the missive published by Vanguard Newspapers. The missive was typewritten, not written in longhand, the intimate, personal format one would expect most children to employ in writing to their parents. The closing line lists her academic qualifications, as if it was a letter of reference or a job application. Surely, her father would know that she has doctorates in veterinary medicine and public health?

    Nor was the missive signed. This particular omission may have been designed to allow the writer to deny authorship. But does it not also suggest that Dr Obasanjo may not have written it?

    Much of what the missive contains about how Obasanjo relates to members of his family has long been in the public domain. Anyone who has read the memoirs of Iyabo Obasanjo’s mother or her numerous press interviews and has some familiarity with gossip about the family could have written that missive.

    So, judging strictly by the rules of documentary analysis, it is not proven that Dr Obasanjo wrote it. If she wrote it, did she intend it for publication? And if she did not write it, who did?

    To the extent that she has not disavowed the missive, reasonable people may reasonably conclude that she must have written it. But if she wrote it, why has she not come out to say so?

    If Dr Obasanjo confirmed that she wrote the missive, she would have assured for herself a lasting place in the annals of infamy. If she repudiated it, she would have spurred those who say they have proof that she wrote it to come out with it and destroy whatever ambition she might still be nursing.

    In the circumstance, she would seem to have calculated, or more likely been led to believe that keeping mum is the best strategy for damage control.

    That, at any rate, is the theory I have come to accept.

    As the nation reeled from its impact, the blizzard of missives was upgraded to a veritable maelstrom by yet another missive, this one from the plush and sedate executive suites of the Central Bank, courtesy of its governor, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi.

    Some U.S. $50 billion or N8 trillion in oil export earnings, the missive addressed directly to President Jonathan charged, had not been remitted to the federal exchequer by the notoriously opaque Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC).

    Back when the trouble with Nigeria was not money but how to spend it, the charge would have been explosive indeed. Now that the government is reportedly broke and the air saturated with allegations of official thieving, the charge is nothing if not incendiary.

    The NNPC moved with uncharacteristic speed to explain that the gap identified by CBN represented remittances to other agencies of the Federal Government. Sanusi stuck to his missive and renewed the charge.

    In the end he conceded that just US$10 billion remains unaccounted for. That is still a great deal of money, but a far cry from the amount alleged to be missing, in the popular imagination diverted to private pockets.

    When principal officials of the treasurer to the Federal Government and the bank of bankers cannot count, when they are unfamiliar with the mechanism for reporting oil receipts, how much confidence can the public invest in all those figures they ritually churn out?

    Finally, I bring up another missive, a 12-page excoriation of Obasanjo that qualifies only as a minor footnote, and a contemptible one at that. Its author is Ameh Ebute, who played a part in bargaining away the victory of his party’s candidate, Chief MKO Abiola, in the 1993 presidential election.

    If Ebute and his gang had not betrayed the sovereign will of the people as expressed emphatically in that election, if they had stood firm, there would have been no Shonekan Interim, no Abacha, no Obasanjo redux and probably no Jonathan.

  • Before Nigeria disintegrates

    Before Nigeria disintegrates

    Two and half years into nationhood, Africa’s youngest country South Sudan is in a serious crisis that could put an end to her existence as a united nation. And few hours to the 100th anniversary of her existence, Africa’s most populous nation, Nigeria, looks set for more troubles that could threaten her unity.

    Both countries have so many things in common notably bad leaders and oil which have combined effectively to compound the dire standard of living of their people.

    Quite early in the life of an independent Nigeria, the country was plunged into a needless civil war that claimed no fewer than one million lives on both sides when common sense prevailed and the war ended 30 months later. South Sudan that got her independence July 2011 is already threading that dangerous path that Nigeria took in 1967, just seven years after her independence from Britain.

    The similarities between the two countries are by no means limited to civil wars alone. Oil which has been the curse of so many countries producing it, especially in Africa, is also found in abundance in the Republic of South Sudan and is indirectly fueling the ongoing war between the majority Dinka tribe of President Salva Kiir and the second largest ethnic group Nuer, led by former Vice President Riek Machar.

    It is not my intention to dwell into what the Southern Sudanese are doing to themselves but to draw the attention of those threatening fire and brimstone if President Goodluck Jonathan was not re-elected in 2015 to the carnage going on in that country.

    Prior to independence in 2011, both the Dinka and the Nuer together with other ethnic nationalities that make up the world’s newest nation were united in their struggle to break away from the Arab dominated Republic of Sudan. Though there were skirmishes between these ethnic nationalities especially Dinka and Nuer, not many paid attention to them as they were seen as being engineered by the Arabs in Khartoum to keep the oil rich south in the Republic of Sudan. But now that the south is independent, nobody will blame the Arabs again; the problem covered up then in the heat of the struggle for independence is now coming up. God save South Sudan.

    To the Asari Dokubos of this world barking Jonathan or no Nigeria after the next presidential election and the other war mongers insisting that it is either a Nigerian president of northern extraction in 2015 or bye bye to Nigeria, what is happening in South Sudan should interest them.

    The South south region that is seemingly pro Jonathan is by no means homogenous and the way the main ethnic group, the Ijaws are grabbing everything around almost to the total exclusion of others is a pointer to what could happen in an independent republic of Niger Delta in the unlikely event of a break up of Nigeria. And the other ethnic nationalities are not amused at all.

    History tells us that the domineering tendencies of the Igbos over the other ethnic nationalities(today’s South south) in the short lived Republic of Biafra contributed immensely to the demise of that ‘country’. And the way the Middle Belters are trying to distinguish themselves from the rest of the north does suggest that there could be more problems within the old north than we have today if that region were to break away from Nigeria. The usual Yoruba civil war could also erupt among the seemingly homogenous people of the South west if that region were to stand alone as a country.

    What I am saying in essence is that it is in our collective interest to ensure the unity and togetherness of Nigeria and Nigerians in spite of our differences. As we enter our centenary year tomorrow, we should reflect on where we were coming from, where we are and what brought us to this level. And before we go forward we should be able ask ourselves and agree on what future do we want for our country; our children.

    The National Conference being offered by President Goodlick Jonathan could be a good platform to do this but there are justifiable fears that he does not mean well with this confab. Not a few Nigerians are against it because nobody is sure of how he would arrive at the report and what he would do with it. More important is the fear that with just a little over a year to the 2015 elections, Organising a national conference now could at best be a distraction to at the worst a recipe for disastrous 2015 polls. Why not leave it till after the elections? Some argue. if you win, continue, if not, allow the next president decide the fate of the national conference, more so since there is a school of thought that believes it should have sovereign powers.

    President Jonathan has done little to allay the fears of opponents of his confab, and they are many. And of late the man has been unnecessarily touchy on every issue of national importance raised by anybody, especially such issues that border on his competence. The open letter written to him by former President Olusegun Obasanjo is a case in point. I have had cause to discuss that letter on this page and I still maintain that the former president had more than a point in that letter even if many including your sincerely does not like him. And the President’s response has been so poor; beating about the bush. Again he has suddenly taken fancy to bashing the media for some of his short comings. When he literally expressed his helplessness in the face of growing Boko Haram insurgency during an extempore speech at a church service and he was so reported by the Nigerian Press, Jonathan through his media vent his anger on journalists. These are signs of desperation, a failing leadership, a doomed presidency.

    Fighting terror all over the world is a war alien to most nations and Nigerians would readily appreciate President Jonathan’s modest efforts in this direction even if they are not satisfied. But to be angry with them when they criticize government action or lack of it in the war against terror is missing the message and chasing the messenger. What the critics of his handling of the Boko Haram issue are saying is that methods are not working well and should therefore change tactics. And if he (Jonathan) is now expressing frustration with the way the war is going and pleading for our understanding and he was so reported in the media that does not mean that all hope of restoring peace is lost. What this says is that we need to not only redouble our efforts but to bring in fresh ideas. The Nigerian media is patriotic enough to appreciate what is in the best interest of the country when and if anything is published. It is not for any politician or errand boy to teach the Nigerian journalist what to say or publish. The Nigerian Press has managed the country’s crises very well, even better than the politicians, to now accuse the media of pursuing an agenda different from the Nigerian agenda is unfair to the thousands of Nigerian journalists out there working to get their compatriots fully informed and abreast of what is happening in the polity. I think the president is just chasing shadows here.

    There are so many issues begging for his attention and rather than look for scapegoats or engage in scapegoating he should apply himself to them one after the other without sentiments. I think he should start with the Obasanjo letter. We are no longer asking for any response, he should respond by acting. Let him catch and punish the thieves around him first, then we’ll know he means business. Let him rein in the mongers of war around him then we can be sure that he meant it when he promised to uphold the unity and indivisibility of the country. Let him do the needful and Nigerians would applaud him. But pandering to ethnic or any other parochial sentiments would lead us nowhere but the way of South Sudan. GOD FORBID BAD THING!

    NIGERIA IS 100

     

    The Federal Government is expected to roll out the carpet in the new year to celebrate the 100th year anniversary of the amalgamation of the British protectorates of Northern and Southern Nigeria. While the jury is still out there as to whether their is anything to celebrate, the fact of our still being together against all the odds, including that unfortunate 30-month civil war of the late 1960s, the June 12 election annulment and its attendant crises, the corruption in high places, etc should tell us that God has a purpose for this country. Therefore, let us rededicate ourselves, the leaders and the led, to serving our country and making her better. Happy centenary anniversary NIGERIA.