Category: Tuesday

  • HDA: The Doyenne at 80

    HDA: The Doyenne at 80

    Twenty analog years ago, on February 1, 2003, or thereabout, I wrote for one of the newspapers a piece welcoming Dr Hamidat Doyinsola Abiola, to my demographic neighborhood on her 60th birthday, little knowing that she had actually preceded me to the precinct.

    The Lady (hereafter HDA)  turned 80 a week ago.

    Her status as the Grand Doyenne of the Nigerian Press (I use that old-fashioned term advisedly) was affirmed by President Muhammadu Buhari in a stirring birthday tribute.  Asiwaju Bola and Senator Remi Tinubu called her a valued friend and associate in advancing progressive causes. Dele Alake and Tunji Bello, who had served as editors for the Concord Newspapers, called her  reverentially “our Editor-in-Chief.”

    It is in the latter category that HAD’s renown will reverberate across time.

    Her last address was the sprawling Concord Newspaper Group where she presided as Editor-in-Chief and chief operating officer.  At its height, the Group boasted six titles in its stable, and had on its staff some of the best-known Nigerian journalists. 

    Its distribution network was unsurpassed in its reach and efficiency. If just one newspaper was on the newsstand in the most far-flung corners of Nigeria on any given day, it had to be of the Group’s titles.

    In a male-dominated industry, leading such a conglomerate was no mean task.  But HDA played that role for years and carried along a team comprising members of perhaps the most querulous occupational group.

    It helped that she was the wife of Concord publisher. Chief Moshood Abiola, but it took much more than that to stay at the top of the game.  HDA did not just walk into the role. Long years of academic and professional immersion had prepared her for it.

    Graduating from the University of Ibadan in the 1960s, HDA entered journalism by serving as a writer and columnist for the Daily Sketch, in Ibadan.  From there she went on to the Daily Times as part of the pioneering graduate team that its visionary leader, Babatunde Jose, had recruited to raise its intellectual appeal to match the appetite of an audience that had grown much more sophisticated than the leading newspaper of the day.

    It was in keeping with that programme that the Daily Times sponsored HDA for doctoral studies at the University of Buffalo, in upstate New York.  Before that, she had earned a Master’s degree from the highly regarded journalism programme at the University of Wisconsin, in Madison, Wisconsin.

    With the doctorate, the first by a Nigerian woman, she returned to Nigeria and served on the Editorial Board of the Daily Times, which Dr Stanley Macebuh had transformed from a routine expedient to the newspaper’s cranium.

    Then, Moshood Abiola and the Concord Newspapers happened, in the aftermath of the 1979 General Election.  HDA relocated uptown from Kakawa, to Ikeja, the operating base of the Concord Group, shortly thereafter becoming editor of its flagship title, The National Concord.

    The Concord Group unapologetically pulled for President Shehu Shagari and the ruling NPN, despite their unpopularity in places where Nigeria’s core newspaper readership resided.  Abiola’s endorsement of sharia grated against the sensibilities of Christians, leading some church officials to order a boycott of the Concord titles. 

    Moshood Abiola was also widely regarded as an apologist for the military regime of General Ibrahim Babangida.  That did little to enhance the standing of the Concord titles.

    Through it all, HDA kept the newspapers in a stable, holding, pattern. She came into her own when Moshood Abiola severed his links with the ruling party and became a less strident proselytizer.  The Concord newspapers grew in appeal and respect.

    A far greater challenge lay ahead.

    It came when Moshood Abiola entered the 1993 presidential race and won the presidential ticket of one that is “a little to the left” of the two official political parties, the  Social Democratic Party, the other being the “little to the right” National Republican Convention.

    The Concord Newspapers, like the rest of the private press, saw through the duplicity of Babangida’s political transition programme and took a leading role in exposing it.  The price was heavy.  A banning order put its weekly newsmagazine African Concord permanently out of circulation.

    The Concord titles were handed a wider banning order during the debacle confected to prevent Moshood Abiola from being declared winner of the 1993 presidential election.  When the ban was lifted after a year, the operating climate had become unsustainable.   The titles limped on for a while, shadows of what they once were.  Then, they expired.

    Abiola’s struggle to claim his electoral mandate thrust HDA into a role for which nothing had prepared her:  spouse of an embattled president-elect, fighting for his life, under a brutal military regime, and editor-in-chief and chief operating officer of a mass-circulation newspaper.

    In the Abiola household, there was an unspoken but clear division of labour among the wives. Kudirat Abiola was the popular face of NADECO, the umbrella organization of progressive elements campaigning to retrieve Abiola’s mandate.  Outgoing, outspoken,  and defiant right up to the moment she was gunned down in broad daylight by government-sponsored assassins on her way to yet another strategy meeting.

    The thoroughly a-political and sedate but engaging Adebisi Abiola kept the home front humming.

    HDA was the intellectual face of the struggle, the discreet mobilizer who maintained and used effectively a network of influential persons in Nigeria and abroad.  She brought to this task mastery of the emergent communication technology.  

    At the height of the annulment crisis,  she prepared – full disclosure: I assisted in the effort – a fortnightly newsletter on the political situation in Nigeria she sent to key officials of the United Nations, the United States, the Organization of African Unity, and the Commonwealth.  From the feedback, we were satisfied that the effort was not wasted.

    The June 12 struggle took a heavy toll on HDA.  In all its obscenity, Kudirat’s assassination was a clear signal that nothing and nobody was off-limit in General Sani Abacha’s plan to foist his brutish rule on the nation.  They kept her under surveillance.  They drew her into enervating mind games.

    Not long after Kudirat’s assassination,  a bullet issuing from an undetermined origin would have struck HDA on the head right in her living room at the Abiola Residence in Opebi had she not shifted her position some two minutes earlier.

    The stakes were prohibitive.  Yet HDA kept faith and helped keep the struggle alive, until the President-elect was done to death, very conveniently across the coffee table from a United States delegation visiting ostensibly to facilitate his release from the military regime’s custody.

    She did not confine her exertions to the Boardroom or political networking.  She imparted her knowledge, skills, and insights to journalism students at the University of Lagos, among other institutions.  She used her resources and influence to promote worthy causes nationwide. A generation of Nigerian women count her as a role model.

    HDA’s sacrifice in the epic struggle has not been acknowledged, much less honoured.  Recognition has instead flowed to fringe actors, and even to some who did everything in their power to thwart the struggle, to subvert the electoral mandate of Nigeria’s sovereign electors.

    Her entry into the eighth decade of her life provides an opportunity to redress this neglect. In the next National Honours List, or based on a Special Citation, the Grand Doyenne of the Nigerian Press deserves to take her earned place among Nigeria’s truly exceptional figures.

  • Stone Age monetary policy

    Stone Age monetary policy

    With few months to the end of his eight years reign, and with the statistics on monetary policy reading failure, President Muhammadu Buhari has resorted to strange monetary policies to tame inflation, corruption and money laundering in one swoop. According to Transparency International, Nigeria in 2022 is rated 150 most corrupt out of 180 countries, and there is no much difference from the country’s position in 2020 and 2021. Comparatively, Nigeria was better off on the corruption index in 2015 and 2016, when many were still afraid of the second coming of Buhari. 

    On a year-on-year basis, in the month of November 2022, the urban inflation rate was 22.09 per cent, which was 6.17 per cent higher compared to the 15.92 per cent recorded in November 2021, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The Consumer Price Index also increased by 21.47 per cent in November 2022 and was 6.07 per cent higher relative to November 2021. The media report on money laundering is not better. The Basel Institute on Governance rated Nigeria as a high-risk country for money laundering and terrorist financing.

    Of course recognising these challenges, the president signed the Money Laundering (Prevention and Prohibition) Act 2022 into law, but despite the tightening of the noose on money launderers, the evil business of the criminal elements like the Boko Haram, and other terrorist groups euphemistically called bandits, who have no regard for laws and other monetary policies are booming. With the monetary policies not impacting the challenges facing the country, President Buhari appears to have fallen into the duplicitous plans of the central bank governor, Godwin Emefiele and cohorts, whose motives are suspect.

    As the president would have seen, Emefiele’s Stone Age monetary policies to tame all the challenges have fallen into disrepute. Bereft of deep knowledge of econometrics, Emefiele decided that the best way to tame inflation is to dispossess Nigerians of all the cash in their possession when he has not provided any viable alternative for the people to engage in commerce. Playing the role of an extortioner, Emefiele and company induced Nigerians with threats of losing their money, to take all their cash to the bank, after which it became impossible to access either the old or new naira notes.

    As the president would have realised, the buck stops at his table, and there have been varied interpretations of the reasons behind this foolhardy draconic punishment of innocent Nigerians from all walks of life. While the president may be thinking of redeeming his disastrous monetary policies in the twilight of his administration, Emefiele and company who are pushing the policy have been accused of using the excruciating resultant punishment as a de-marketing strategy of APC’s presidential candidate. There are also claims that the same fifth columnists in the presidency projected Emefiele to run in the party’s primary.

    The presidential candidate of the All Progressive Congress (APC) Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a veteran of many political battles, was the first to see the gimmicks of the enemies within his party, and immediately called out the masquerades to stop misleading the president. Governor Nasir El Rufai of Kaduna State went further to state their nefarious agenda to foist another northern candidate on the country, after eight years of Buhari’s presidency.

    The president also believes that the disconcerting monetary policy would tame vote buying, demands for ransom by kidnappers and sundry crimes which his regime has been unable to deal with in nearly eight years. But as he would have seen, the policy is turning Nigerians to maddening behaviour with some going naked in the banking halls, in acts of desperation to get their money from the banks. Many banks in the past week were not giving out cash, whether new or old currency and money deposit banks have no explanation for this crazy decision to serially break their contractual obligations to their customers.

    To further make a fool of the federal government, the bandits for whom the majority of Nigerians are being punished have made videos displaying bundles of the new naira notes to shame the country they terrorise. While the ordinary Nigerians cannot access cash to service their basic needs, the bandits have displayed bundles of the new naira notes and recently a kidnapper has reportedly demanded to be paid in the new currency, thereby defeating one of the touted benefits. Again, to embarrass the country, money-miss-roads as we call them in local parlance, are recklessly spraying new naira notes and matching on them in parties.

    President Buhari should also know that it is preposterous to think that the former Accountant General of the Federation who is accused of stealing N109 billion while serving his government, could have been dissuaded from his nefarious activity if all the cash in possession of ordinary Nigerians are deceptively collected and warehoused in the banks. All the money he stole most likely never went through any cash transaction, and so depriving Nigerians of their hand earned monies to tame public sector corruption in a jiffy is brainless.

    While they may be marginal decline in inflation and increase in the value of the naira, it should be clear to monetary policy novices that the gains are artificial, as the current policy is unsustainable. Many companies are having challenges with maintaining their production lines, as workers are unable to go to work. Small and micro businesses are also shutting down, as many of them cannot produce, and where they produce, nobody is buying. As the APC governors told Buhari, farmers and traders of perishable items are losing heavily  from this hare-brained monetary policy.                           

    As if to confirm Tinubu’s conspiracy theory, fuel scarcity which was tamed for better part of the Buhari presidency has returned with vengeance. Now to buy fuel, Nigerians have to first buy naira from the black market and then buy fuel at exorbitant costs. What the American would call a double whammy. Those who cannot access their monies to buy naira from the black market are left with no money to pay for basic essentials and in the beguiling mind of the CBN governor and his backers, inflation is being tamed.

    President Buhari must realise that history would hold him accountable if Nigeria tips from this poor implementation of basic monetary policy of redesigning a nation’s currency. The changing of Nigerian’s currency should not subject the citizens to the harrowing experience people are going through. As Sen. Shehu Sani counselled, you cannot set the forest on fire to catch a few rats. If Emefiele and his gang are incapable of using modern monetary policies to tame inflation, corruption and money laundering, they should not spill the blood of innocent Nigerians to achieve whatever nefarious projects they have in mind.

    Enough of these Stone Age monetary policies.

  • Palace intrigues

    Palace intrigues

    On two critical fronts, a palace power play just hit the current electioneering.  Its hysteria and Armageddon tales are palpable — and just as well.  

    It’s 18 days to a crucial election!

    Cash and fuel!  It’s a double whammy that couldn’t have come at a worse time!  No wonder political gladiators grimly position themselves to profit from the debacle.

    Hardly a crime!  Don’t folks say all is fair in war?  

    Still, such profiteering — and the more cynical, the bigger the illicit prize — could well separate those with solid policies and messaging, from hustlers milking current angst to scam the electorate.  All is fair in war!

    Cold comfort, though: those merrily scammed have four years — at least — to rue their manic folly; four years, at least, to gnash their teeth!  

    But back to the twin-debacle: cash and fuel.

    Godwin Emefiele, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) governor, has been the clear face of villainy in the currency swap blow-out.  He has been the butt of triumphal roasting in a section of the media.

    Now, is he fair devil nailed on the cross?  Or just another poor Christ of CBN: a mere scapegoat for hidden banking Barabas and scammers?  Time will tell.

    But beyond sundry hysteria, some facts shoot up.  Banks and their managers, always unfazed poster children of crooked citizenship in times of cash shocks and jolts, are taking their rightful places in infamy.

    Even as automated teller machines (ATMs) thirst for cash, to sate the need of a cash-starved public, bundles of mint-fresh new Naira notes fly at parties in a sickening cascade of merry sprays.  

    Why?  One Kaduna-based bandit released a video which promptly went viral, jeering: what the public couldn’t get, he had a surfeit of!  But that outlaw could well be bluffing.

    Two women, one an actor; another, a social media “serial entrepreneur”, have been nabbed for swap racketeering.  One was caught in a video throwing wads of the new Naira notes at dancers at a party and stomping on some notes herself in wild dancing.  The other was advertising the sale — at illicit premium — on her social media handle. 

    Where on earth did these folks get the scarce cash?  Sabotage!

    “Some banks are inefficient and only concerned about themselves,” President Muhammadu Buhari grimly rued, while hosting APC governors, who had rushed to Aso Rock to figure out how the Naira swap crunch could be stemmed. “Even if a year is added, problems associated with selfishness and greed won’t go away.”

    True.  Still, that won’t stop folks from blasting PMB for the mess.  That’s a tough leadership call, which drives the opposition’s bid to profit by it all at the polls.

    Still, that sabotage couldn’t have be so masterfully executed without CBN’s clear guilt in supply shortage.  

    Just as Emiefele indicted the banks for racketeering with bundles of cash while he was at the House of Representatives, Nasir El-Rufai, the Kaduna governor, has also accused the CBN of mopping up N2 trillion in old notes, printed N300 billion as replacement, and allowed soulless racketeering to thrive on the N1.7 trillion shortfall!

    If CBN had as much as printed N1 trillion in new notes, el-Rufai reasoned, the swap would have been less painful, as the shortage is less severe.

    But before you dismiss it all as yet another harsh call from Mallam Stern Governor, link his take to PMB’s own disclosure that before he authorized the currency tinkering, the CBN assured him that no new note would be printed abroad — clearly to preserve scarce forex.

    Might the shortage of new Naira notes then have resulted from lack of capacity from the local mint and security printing company?  Might that have explained El-Rufai’s claim that CBN made available N300 billion to replace N2 trillion?  

    To get to the root of the crisis, this line of questioning is worth vigorously pursuing.  While it’s legit for CBN to want to mop up excess cash to stem inflation, pushing out N300 billion to replace N2 trillion would appear a tack too acute.

    But again, let’s get all the facts before coming to definitive judgment.  Suffice it to say it’s pretty grim out there and the president’s seven-day permission to fix the mess may well prove a bridge too far.  The government must move much faster.  Act now!

    Now, fuel.  Unlike cash where you have a villain to tear at, the alleged saboteurs on the fuel front are faceless powers and principalities inside NNPC Ltd and in Aso Rock!

    Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, the APC presidential candidate, first dropped the bombshell on the hustings in Abeokuta, Ogun State.  

    A day or two after, Governor El-Rufai — an unfazed straight shooter, if ever there was one — came out to definitively own the statement: some fellows, who lost out in the intra-APC presidential ticket sweepstakes, are allegedly hiding behind the president to incite the people against their party, and trying to shred the party’s prime ticket! 

    Riposting to Information and Culture Minister, Alhaji Lai Mohammed’s initial denial that such pernicious ghosts never existed, the governor doubled down; insisting even the minister knew the person(s) being accused: a few fifth columnists — not the President; never the Federal Government — but embedded saboteurs well and fairly docked!

    Meanwhile, the fuel crisis has taken a frightful soul of its own, biting harder and harder.  Though the President just set up an emergency committee to crack the monstrous nut, the NNPCL — sole importers of petroleum products — maintains its stock story of sufficient fuel.  If so, why the acute scarcity, driving cut-throat pump pricing?

    Again vile sabotage, as Tinubu alleged in Abeokuta?  And why now — especially by an APC government that for seven years has, to be fair, managed the fuel crisis better than the preceding PDP government?

    Why now when local refining is nearer than any other time since the dawn of SAP in 1986, with Dangote and other local modular refineries very close to berthing?  

    Why would any government throw away its ace, at the virtual eve of a crucial election?

    Tinubu has applied shock therapy to whip his APC back into line — and the ensuing thunder of reverberations has shown its clear impact.

    Atiku Abubakar?  Now he hails.  Then he nails. But why, on the balance, do you have a feeling he hankers after milking electoral fortune from this mass misery? 

    Peter Obi has told Nigerians to bear with the present pains in expectation of future gains, after what appeared a long, studious quiet from his camp.

    On the whole, this cash/fuel mess is a costly distraction that should never have been.  It favours the opposition which strategy— for want of any worthwhile messaging — is to milk public pains for electoral gains.  

    But it also hurts — very deeply — Tinubu’s pin-point messaging thus far: past achievements signposting future capacity and capability; where Tinubu and running mate, Kashim Shettima, post rather formidable records as Lagos and Borno governors.

    That’s why PMB must stem this needless palace intrigue.  His party’s fortune in the  election — nay, his government’s legacy — rests on it.

  • Echoes from 1993

    Echoes from 1993

    In the run-up to the February 25 General Election, I hear echoes of the June 1993 presidential election and the debacle that followed, a debacle that shook Nigeria to its fragile roots, and from which it is yet to recover.

    That election, remember, was billed as the culmination of military president Ibrahim Babangida’s political transition programme, eight years in the making, that the eminent political scientist, Dr Richard Joseph, called “one of the most duplicitous and sustained exercises in chicanery ever visited upon a people.”

    Against Babangida’s machinations, the election delivered a pan-Nigerian mandate to Bashorun Moshood Abiola and his running-mate and fellow Muslim, Ambassador Babagana Kingibe, the type Nigeria has never known and may never witness again.

    Unable to live with his own unintended success, Babangida annulled the election, turning what signalized a bright new morn for Nigeria into a waking nightmare that haunts the country still.

     The echoes I am hearing are faint but persistent, and they grow louder and more ominous with each passing day. 

    At this conjuncture, there is of course no Babangida.  The self-styled evil genius is skulking in the sterile opulence of his Hilltop Mansion, his malign influence confined there.  There is no Augustus Aikhomu, no Arthur Nzeribe and his Association for a Better Nigeria, no Clement Akpamgbo, no Ernest Shonekan, no Justice Bassey Ikpeme, no Justice Dahiru Saleh, no Uche Chukwumerije, no Sam Ikoku and his Council of Elder Statesmen, collaborators all, or dupes, in subverting the popular will.  No known mutinous officers.

    But that club is large and hardy, and its denizens are lurking in the shadows, waiting for a chance to do what they do best.  Never count them out.

    The echoes I am hearing are as of now faint, but ominous nevertheless.  And they call to mind the signals which indicated powerfully that the 1993 presidential election would result in national convulsion.

    Right now, nothing on the ground makes February 25 inevitable.

    In the face of mounting general insecurity and election-related violence and the threat of more of the same, INEC chair, Professor Mahmood Yakubu has said that the election might not hold as scheduled.  His hard-headed realism is more reassuring than the woolly-headed optimism one hears from some quarters.

    Hakeem Baba Ahmed, director of publicity and advocacy for the Northern Elders Forum has hinted at something darker:  the possibility that an “unconstitutional contraption” — shades of June 12, 1993 – “may be forced on Nigerians in May.”                                                              

    Speaking for Northern Elders last week in Abuja at Trust Newspapers Forum, he warned “those planning to interfere with the conduct of credible elections and peaceful transition of power to another administration” to desist.

     The plot, in outline:  To pivot on difficulties simultaneously imposed, if not deliberately contrived, to wit – general insecurity, fuel scarcity, crushing inflation, and the exchange of old currency notes – to “inflame passions and trigger unrest which may poison the election environment or threaten its conduct.”

     These are not the prognostications of an alarmist or a purveyor of conspiracy theories.  He described the thrust of his submission as “conjectures.” Whatever their character, his charge to the attentive audience is poignant:  “Nigerians should reject any plan to produce a successor to President Buhari through unconstitutional means.”

     A week before that, my colleague and general editor at The Nation, Adekunle Ade-Adeleye, had in his unfailingly percipient column for the paper’s Sunday edition, written that the future was “boobytrapped,” what with a “blitzkrieg” of major political appointments by a presidency approaching lame-duck status, seeking a jumbo loan to cover almost a decade of extra-budget pending, staging a population census hard on the heels of a divisive election, and planning to end the corruption-ridden oil subsidies the day after a new administration takes office.  

    The nation’s last military ruler, General Abdulsalami Abubakar, co-chair with the Sultan of Sokoto, Muhammadu  Sa’ad Abubakar of the National Peace Committee, has also rebuked political actors ahead of next month’s elections, saying at a roundtable with the leadership of nation’s political parties, that it appeared they had learned no lessons from the past.

    Abdulsalami spoke during a one-day roundtable meeting his committee had with the leadership of the nation’s 18 registered political parties and their presidential candidates.

     “It is evident,” he told them, “that some of our actors have not learnt any lessons from the past. There is an increasing tone of desperation, if not incitement, among some of the contestants and members of their parties.

       “Intra and inter-party wrangling persist, with occasions of violence. In desperation, some selfish political actors use these strategies to pursue their frivolous ambitions in the courts.”

     I was not a little alarmed by his claim that the political class had learned no lessons.  This has been the excuse, the pretext that a long line of coup-makers had used to justify their incursion into politics, only to leave matters far worse than they had found them.

     When he declaims that the political class had learned no lessons, the pat retort has to be this: “What lessons were they taught?

    What specific lessons did Abdulsalami and his cohorts teach?  What restitutions have they made?  Few among them and the institutions they presided over have stood the test of time.

     Was it not in Abdulsalami’s custody that President-elect Moshood Abiola was done to death as a “final solution to the problem of June 12”?  Was it not his regime that surreptitiously foisted on Nigeria the Constitution that lies at the heart of our disquiet?

     This posturing gets irksome, especially in somebody who has been vested with saintliness he does not deserve.  The National Peace Committee’s intervention is appropriate, to be sure, but its chair must keep the sanctimony out of it.

     Amidst the encircling gloom came news that the Governor of the Central Bank, Godwin Emefiele, had finally yielded to public outcry and extended the deadline for turning in the old currency notes by 10 days.  Even if the new notes had fully entered the system, bleeding ink and all, the original deadline was still impossibly short. And it says how little he knows about the institution he controls. 

     In many local government areas, there is no banking outlet to speak of.  Even where they exist, the pervading insecurity and the dearth of appropriate logistics would still have made it well-nigh impossible for them to comply with the deadline.  Our, after all, is still a cash-and-carry economy.

    In whatever case, it is astonishing that one unelected official can inflict so much pain on the public, be so deaf to pleas for a change of course, and be so heedless of the consequences. Emefiele maintains that he was merely following the letter of the law.  What of its spirit?

     We can only imagine how he would have wielded the awesome powers of the presidency if the Svengalis operating from the shadows of the Aso Rock Villa had succeeded in their scheme.

    The longer deadline will still not make for a pain-free transition from the old to the new currency notes.  Still, we must be thankful for Mefi’s mercies.  

    No thanks, however, to the spectral Department of State Services which issued during the yuletide, a bellicose order to the actors in the oil industry to flood the market with the commodity or face severe consequences.   Eight weeks later, it is, if anything, scarcer. 

     The DSS squandered its authority and credibility by issuing an order it could not enforce.  The oil people called its bluff, and it will now have to rue the consequences.  

    For all practical purposes, the transition remains booby-trapped. It remains for the public to watch and pray.   

  • Confusion, Break Bone

    Confusion, Break Bone

    Had things gone the way Godwin Emefiele wanted it – or better still, as he advertised it – the country ought to, at least by now, have found sufficient evidence to bury that tribe that Nigerians claim to loathe with so much gusto.  You know the tribe –the politicians and their corrupt allies already presumed guilty of stashing trillions of naira notes in dug-out pits and other unthinkable places for elections and other illicit purposes.

    Clearly, if the unprincipled monetarist, who many reckon is the main culprit for keeping the financial system awash with excess liquidity – the same individual to whom institutional restraints counted for little under his do-good monetarism – has decided that some assess need to kicked if merely for the feel-good effect; who are we, the ordinary mortals to question, not just his hypothesis but his judgment call?  

    Now, it must be interesting that 100 days after, some Nigerians are still hung in eager expectation of that “Eureka Moment” when our publicity-hugging anti-graft agencies would announce the greatest cash haul ever, to affirm Emefiele’s hypothesis and to establish the inherent wisdom of what is proving to be no more than the brain-wave of a lone actor.

     It is just as well that the country still has 10 days and extra to procure that magical moment whose costs – material and psychological – (never mind) are proving to be indeterminate!

    In the meantime, Emefiele, it would appear, couldn’t even afford the luxury of waiting for the end game before pronouncing magisterially on the success of an exercise that has visited such unimaginable trauma on the hapless citizens in peacetime, with a target still a clear quarter to go!

    And just in case anyone still harbours doubts, he is already bandying stats to prove it! The financial system, he said at the weekend, had N3.23 trillion floating around of which only N500 billion was in the banking system – the rest ‘held permanently in people’s homes’!

    Now, the exercise has yielded N1.9 trillion (in addition to the N500 billion).

    By contrast, the currency in circulation in 2015 was only N1.4 trillion.

    In other words, three months down the line, there remains a net balance of N900 billion still outside the monetary system; and all of this (or nearly all) to be returned into the banking vaults in the next two weeks. And why the game endurance continues, Emefiele and company of the CBN can pronounce gleefully – we somehow did it!

    Do I suspect something in the CBN top job that predisposes the incumbent to untrammelled, intoxicating power? Remember Chukwuma Charles Soludo’s outlandish currency re-denomination of August 2007, a psych-op exercise that had to be halted mid-stream by an attentive executive – the late President Umaru Yar’Adua? Then, the whole concept was for the monetary authority to drop two zeros in what was supposed to be a smart move to enhance the value of the currency. Just like that!

    Yes, the crisp N1,000 notes would become N10, the N500 note N5 and N100 simply turns to N1 with all naira assets and contracts redenominated effective August, 2008. That was supposed to be – until he was reminded by the late president, that the law actually makes written approval by the president a mandatory requirement! End of story. 

    Enter Sanusi Lamido Sanusi. Nigerians are certainly familiar with the author and finisher of Banking Sanitisation – the rambunctious economist and banker, aka SLS. A self-appointed reformer and whistle-blower rolled into one, not for him the tiresome indulgence of pandering to a doddering executive. His CBN, although had a seat on Goodluck Jonathan Economic Management Team, its independence was inviolate. Unfortunately, not a few thought that he actually crossed the line when he took on the Jonathan administration on many fronts. For what the latter alleged to be a tenure “characterised by various acts of financial recklessness and misconduct… [and] far-reaching irregularities”, he was shoved through the door in 2014.

    Today, we have a Godwin Emefiele, the banker that would don the partisan garbs while playing the monetary czar. Call it the lure of power, and you’ll be right; left to him, banking is not just politics by another name, but a vocation to be deployed to serve such ends that shifting exigencies dictate! With Emefiele, the idea of a bankrupt apex bank is no longer far-fetched; it is a daily, looming reality!

    Yes, the conventional knowledge teaches that the CBN will operate with a single-minded independence in monetary policy matters. Unfortunately, the way successive CBN helmsmen have chosen to carry on would appear to suggest a strange kind of ‘independence’ – more expansive that the framers of the CBN Act could have intended it to be –certainly far beyond the frontiers of monetary policy orbit as the world have come to know it. On countless occasions, we have seen the tools of monetary management seized in moments of the unbridled, schizophrenic activism as to leave the practitioners of the old art of banking in utter embarrassment.  Now, we can only wonder about the real source of the problem: is it the office or the personality? 

    I know a tribe out there who would swear that last week’s extension of Emefiele’s currency re-design policy is a face-saving measure. I really do not know about that. What I do know is that Nigerians can’t see, let alone get, enough of Emefiele’s new notes. Not in the banking halls or the ubiquitous Point of Sales (PoS) cash vendors in our neighbourhoods, or the Automated Teller Machines!

    The only exception is perhaps, the Owambe parties, of which it has been reported, that the new notes are never in short supply.

    Or could it be that our politicians hate us that much – that they wouldn’t mind throwing hundreds of billions of naira into the cesspit to prove a point to Emefiele? Can someone please get serious?

    Face-saving or not, I know that there’ll be enough time to test Emefiele’s many avant-garde hypotheses. Like his warped thesis on money, inflation, and exchange rate – whether these are anchored on sound knowledge of the sociology of Nigerians, or simply one of those mind-games by a bored highly-placed public functionary.  

    As the immortal Fela is wont to say of the current season– Confusion break bone!

  • Era of substance

    Era of substance

    On January 23/24, Lagos — where else? — may have berthed an exciting era of electoral substance on Nigeria’s federal front.

    On those two epochal days, President Muhammadu Buhari inaugurated the Lagos Blue Line (Rail), the Lekki Deep Sea Port (Maritime) and the Imota-Ikorodu Rice Mill (Agriculture), clear game-changers for the Lagos — and Nigerian — economy.

    A fourth project, the J. K. Randle Centre for Yoruba Culture and History, with its enhanced public swimming pool, could well re-ignite that Onikan, Lagos, corridor as a tourism and entertainment hub, global and domestic.

    The facilities in that district of history and culture speak for themselves: the redeveloped J.K. Randle Hall had, for eons, catered for theatre buffs.  The swimming pool, originally built in 1928 by Dr. Randle, was also part of the old Onikan mosaic.

    Next door is the MUSON Centre, high shrine of Lagos high society music, drama and sundry amusement, which had taken over the Love Garden Park, genteel Lagos Island paradise of tryst, from 1928 till the early 1970s.

    MUSON Centre borders the Mobolaji Johnson Arena.  Originally built in 1930, it was named King George V Stadium, Onikan.  

    Across the road, from MUSON Centre is the Lagos City Mall, which boasts a modern movie theatre, an upscale eatery and allied facilities.  Next door is the National Museum, curating Nigeria’s art and crafts; and abiding magnet for budding stage and music buffs; and even an exciting spot for samplers of rich Nigerian cuisine.

    Bordering the Museum is the old Parliament Building, the extensive Tafawa Balewa Square, with the large sprawl of the old federal administrative district, which spans the old Cabinet Office on Moloney Street, and reaches the now-comatose 25-storey Independence House, yet to regain its strides after a military-era blaze.

    Link all of these areas to the nearby train platform on the Lagos Marina, and the Lagos State government could well be boosting IGR with quality tourism, leisure and entertainment — if it markets this district of history and culture right.

    But that’s hardly the main crux of this piece, though it fits pat into milking value from economic infrastructure — which again reinforces electoral substance: what specific projects can a candidate point at to earn a future vote?

    Still from 1999, that has been the tradition in Lagos — but seldom at the federal level.  That clearly explains Lagos as a metaphor for bloom, dash and glow, as the federal front is for wilt and rot, so painfully exposed with the change of guard in 2015.

    From Governor Bola Tinubu (who set the tone from 1999) to his three successors so far — Babatunde Fashola, Akinwunmi Ambode and now Babajide Sanwo-Olu — it has been a remarkable relay of exciting rebirth, despite the explosive influx of opportunity-seeking citizens from all over Nigeria.

    Indeed, you could openly track Ambode’s hands in the Mobolaji Johnson Arena, J.K. Randle and Imota Rice Mill projects, just as you could trace the Blue Line to Tinubu’s original vision and Fashola’s yeoman’s anchoring of that idea on brick, iron and mortar.  

    That Sanwo-Olu is “harvesting” everything — Tinubu, Fashola, Ambode-era projects — is ode to learning from Ambode’s critical flaw, which perhaps cost him a second term.  

    Indeed, had he not abandoned the rail project, Ambode could well have inaugurated the Blue Line during PMB’s first term — Fashola had done much of the heavy work.  

    Instead, he opted for own legacy: the Oshodi transport hub, Oshodi-Abule Egba BRT track, Agege/Pen Cinema flyover and sundry works, the Lagos International Airport-Oshodi 10-laner and landscaping, and massive infrastructure upgrade of rural Lagos, particularly in Alimoso and Ambode’s native Epe — otherwise excellent projects.  

    The snag is he lost nomination for second term and couldn’t complete most of those projects, which then fell as low hanging fruits — including Fashola’s Lagos HOMS, which Ambode also abandoned — for a more collegiate-minded and strategic-thinking Sanwo-Olu.  

    Still, despite this personal flaw, Ambode, like every Tinubu successor, did immense justice to his gubernatorial baton. That Lagos is national gold standard in fresh thinking and smart project delivery is proof. 

    The federal front was the diametric opposite — at least during the PDP years (1999-2015).  It would be crass hyperbole to claim those governments did “nothing”.  But it’s fair to say whatever they did didn’t change lives or better the fortune of the majority.

    The proof?  Conclusive rot on federal front as at 2015, despite years of hefty oil revenue.  That brewed today’s mess.  But the same folks that authored that mess are trying to milk it for cynical electoral gains.

    On 17 November 2022, CNN ran a story: “From railways to ports, these infrastructure mega projects are reshaping Africa.” Nigeria accounted for four of the 15 projects CNN named.  One was linked to Lagos.  The other three were located in Lagos.

    The list: Lagos-Kano standard gauge rail (with its Lagos-Abeokuta-Ibadan leg already completed and running); Lekki Deep Sea Port (which PMB just inaugurated); Dangote Petro-Chemicals and Refinery (close to completion, in that same Lekki corridor that houses the new deep sea port); and Eko Atlantic City (the Tinubu-era Lagos answer to Obasanjo-Atiku shoving sands at the Bar Beach ocean waves).

    All the projects validate Lagos as hub of game-changers.  That Lagos record should strengthen the electoral pitch of Asiwaju Tinubu as APC presidential candidate.

    That the Federal Government under PMB heavily supported these key infrastructure — except the Eko Atlantic City on which Lagos went solo with private sector partnership — shows an exciting progressive shift in developmental temper on the federal front.  That should chalk a big plus for the APC government, in its current electioneering to retain federal power.

    But what would the likes of Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi — both linked to PDP — point to as evidence of serious infrastructure dreams, or past feats?  

    Atiku was deputy to President Olusegun Obasanjo and both take responsibility for those years of false start, from 1999 to 2007.  

    Would the economy have been better off today with sinking US$ 12 billion in critical infrastructure, than shelling out that humongous cash to buy “debt-forgiveness”, as Obasanjo-Atiku did in 2005, with vain glory?  On that, the jury is still out.

    As for Obi, his infrastructure vision is grand indeed! As Anambra governor, his golden rule was to faithfully tar lanes but no less religiously shun expressways!  How can any modern economy thrive with that mentality?

    But while the CNN-cited projects flattered Lagos and Nigeria under PMB, it’s hardly good advertisement for Nigeria overall.  The same report listed Egypt as building a new capital east of Cairo; and planning speed trains to link the old capital with the new.

    It also spoke of Kenya bolstering its settled long-distant rail service with faster trains.  Had past federal governments taken infrastructure seriously as PMB has done now, Nigeria shouldn’t lag behind Kenya in critical rail.

    Still, as the presidential poll looms less than 25 days away, the voter is in quite some spot. Which of these contrasting visions would the voter buy?

    Whatever direction voters go, the PMB Lagos show hallmarks a new era of electoral substance, below which no future Federal Government must fall.

  • BVAS as game changer

    BVAS as game changer

    The reasoning in the judgement of the Osun State Election Petition tribunal which relied on Bimodal Voters Accreditation System (BVAS) to set aside the election of Governor Ademola Adeleke, though subject to appeal, deserves attention. While the legal battle has shifted to the appellate courts, it is safe to assume that the grounds of appeal will not seek to impugn the finding of the tribunal that where over voting has been established in a polling unit, the result will be cancelled.     

    Furthermore, it should be safe to assume that where the votes cast in an election is higher than those accredited by BVAS, the result of the election would be deemed as over voting by the courts. These are far reaching improvements in our electoral process, and going forward, this column urges free-election activists to concentrate their efforts to ensure the sanctity of BVAS, prior and post elections. Prior elections, to ensure that only validly imputed data is made into BVAS, and post-election, that all imputed data remain safe and verifiable until the final determination of any dispute that may arise.

    To entrench the use of smart card reader in our electoral process was a long drawn battle between the rest of Nigerians and public office holders. Of course, the reason for preferring the manual procedure is because it allowed the candidates, especially the incumbents, the opportunity to engage in over voting, stuffing or snatching ballot box, inflating election results and similar bizarre electoral malpractices, without dire consequences. Under the old order, election results can be inflated merely by addition of a number behind the last figure, and dispute therefrom will linger forever in court.

    But all those malpractices appears to have become history with the advent of BVAS, particularly if that part of the judgment of the Osun Tribunal on the exclusive reliance of smart card is further affirmed by the superior courts. No wonder legislators and even presidents resisted the battle to entrench card reader into our electoral laws. Even President Muhammadu Buhari resisted the clamour in the run-up to his second term election, but whether because of local and international pressure or patriotic instinct, he signed the 2022 Electoral Act.

    Section 47(2) of the Act provides: “To vote, the presiding officer shall use a smart card reader or any technological device that may be prescribed by the Commission, for the accreditation of voters, to verify, confirm or authenticate the particulars of the intending voter in the manner prescribed by the Commission.” Sub-section 3 further provides that where the card reader fails to function, “the election in that unit shall be cancelled and another election shall be scheduled within 24 hours” if the Commission is satisfied of the need in clearly stated circumstance.

    The new Act also expressly stated in Section 51(2): “Where the number of votes cast at an election in any polling unit exceeds the number of accredited voters in that polling unit, the Presiding officer shall cancel the result of the election in that polling unit.” Sub-section 3 provides: “Where the result of an election is cancelled in accordance with subsection (2), there shall be no return for the election until another poll has taken place in the affected polling unit.”

    Perhaps the appellate court would be asked to determine what decision the courts should make where the cancellation as in Adeleke’s case is made by the court after the result had been declared and a winner returned, instead of at the polling unit by a polling officer as expressly provided by section 52(3) quoted above. But what is clear from the Electoral Act is that wherever there is over voting, the result from that polling unit must be cancelled.

    These are interesting developments for our electoral process, considering the mess that politicians made of elections in the past. But since both parties in the Osun election petition acknowledged over voting, albeit disagreeing on the number of polling units affected, it is important to ask, how come it is still possible to over-vote when BVAS was supposed to be the gate keeper? So, for those polling units where over voting is not controverted by both parties, how come the polling officers allowed those not accredited to vote, to constitute the over voting?

    Unless the answers to the above posers are provided by INEC, there would still be lingering doubt that election malpractice has not been totally conquered by the BVAS technology. Indeed, if the nation is determined to deal with the monster of electoral malpractice, a forensic audit of the voters could reveal those who voted without accreditation, and such persons and the polling officers should be investigated for electoral malpractice.

    Where a case of malpractice is established by the commission against either a voter or an electoral officer, the commission could use those involved to test the provisions of the Act on electoral offences. But while awaiting the final verdict of the Supreme Court on the Osun election, and the possibility of dealing with the various outcomes, there is no doubt that BVAS has given new confidence to the electoral process. And the result is increased belief that each election would reflect the will of the electorate.

    Though the judgment of the Osun State Election Petition may have put a question mark on those assumptions, it is important to note that the contending parties in the petition and even INEC agreed that there was over voting in some polling units in the election, the difference being the number of the affected polling units. So, there is public excitement with the introduction of BVAS. To further buoy public confidence, INEC should institute an administrative enquiry to understudy the gaps in the electoral process that dubious persons are still exploiting.

    From casual observation, one can say that some individuals, who in the past would have considered participating in the elections a waste of time, are showing interest because of the introduction of the BVAS card reader. And many of such persons are contesting for elective positions, unlike in the past when seeking elective position was left for ardent party faithful and their godfathers. Now, there are some ordinary Nigerians who sought and gained the tickets of fringe parties and are enthusiastically canvasing for votes and hoping to win.

    While some of them may not win, they would be satisfied if they lose transparently, unlike in the past when election results could be written in the sitting rooms of the big guns in politics, and the beneficiaries declared winners. If the electoral system stays on course in terms of credibility, increasingly, serious minded persons would throw their hats into the ring, and the nation would be the better off for that. Perhaps, it is better to wait for the performance of BVAS in the upcoming general election, before it is renamed the game changer?

  • The Chatham House traffic

    The Chatham House traffic

    The final details of Nigeria’s Independence Constitution were hammered out during 1957-1959 in the hallowed halls of Chatham House, London, in negotiations between Nigeria’s accredited political leaders and the British colonial authorities.

    More than six decades later, the major candidates in Nigeria’s presidential election scheduled for February 25 have been making a pilgrimage to Chatham House.  It is as if the path to the Presidency and its awesome powers runs through that storied edifice.

    Nothing is being negotiated this time; no recondite constitutional principles are being discussed. No recalcitrant delegates have to be appeased, cajoled or bullied into line with the velvet-gloved imperial fist.  It’s just the natives on their own, one after another, each making a pitch for the top job before the attentive international audience, and advertising to the folks back home his well-choreographed arrival on the global stage.

    First to hit the trail was the APC presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, who created a stir by leaving it to his associates to answer the questions that followed his prepared speech.  This novel expedient, not the main presentation, has been the talking point.

    Was it a calculated ploy, as some said, to cover up a rumoured disability, or a way of showing that the Tinubu Campaign was anchored not on an individual but on a team of knowledgeable,  strategists?

    Hard on Tinubu’s heels to Chatham House was the Labour Party candidate, Peter Obi, the billionaire entrepreneur representing working people. Leadership, he emphasized, is the touchstone of national greatness.  Just pick the right leader, and everything will be all right.

    His mentor, former President Obasanjo who knows a great deal about the subject apparently hasn’t told him that isn’t the whole truth. Letters acknowledging messages of condolence on the death of his wife Stella did not make it out of his office for one full month after he had signed them.

    On directing that a Note Verbale be issued to facilitate my re-entry to the United States before I became a resident, he made a point of urging me to follow up with the Ministry in Abuja to ensure that prompt action followed. 

    I am also reminded of a remark credited to U.S. President Harry Truman, on the election of Dwight Eisenhower, the former Supreme Allied Commander in World War 11 to succeed him in The White House.

    “He’ll sit here, and he’ll say, ‘Do this! Do that!’ And nothing will happen. Poor Ike-it won’t be a bit like the Army. He’ll find it very frustrating.”

    Obi may have had a different experience as a two-term executive governor of Anambra State and an entrepreneur of long standing calling the shots.  But the Truman quote should serve as a cautionary tale. 

    The ANPP presidential candidate and former Kano State governor,  Engineer Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso, detailed the challenges facing Nigeria.  In his telling, the country is a veritable dystopia, made so by the wrong choices of those entrusted with governance, especially in the past 20 years.  He said he had come up with a detailed and practical plan to address those challenges.

    The embattled PDP presidential candidate, Abubakar Atiku, is yet to have his day at Chatham House.  Perhaps he considers that forum inferior to his recent private and confidential audience with the UK Government. 

    Was his Campaign’s Technical and Systems director, High Chief Raymond Dokpesi, in town for the event, able to participate, having been subjected to not a little inconvenience at Heathrow Airport by the police?  Or was a separate briefing arranged for him?

    A Chatham House appearance would afford Atiku an opportunity to expatiate on his approach to sharing the spoils of office.  If the PDP does not win your constituency, forget about any contract, juicy or juiceless.  The policy is at once pragmatic and forward-looking.   

    He might also seek professional advice from Europe’s seasoned politicos on how to wriggle out of the chokehold of the fellow who was aspiring to be his running mate.

    It is not only the presidential hopefuls, mark you, that have been trooping to Chatham House. The chair of the Independent National Electoral Commission, Professor Mahmood Yakubu, has been there, too. 

    He laid out a truly formidable array of electronic and logistic devices, including aerial satellites. that have been deployed to prevent or curtail the irregularities that have marred Nigerian elections since the first legislative plebiscite was held in Lagos in 1923.

    No vote-buying,  No ballot-stuffing.  No snatching of ballot boxes.  No allocation of votes. No vote-switching.  No unregulated campaign spending.  No violence.  The usual suspects are going find it well-nigh impossible to rig in this cycle

    I gather that plans have reached an advanced stage for the chair of the National  Population Commission, Nasir Isa Kwarra, to set out to Chatham House to assure the attentive audience that it was not in error nor by accident that the Census was programmed to take place barely a month after the General Election.

    It has been planned, as the critics do not know and probably cannot fathom, to ride the big wave of mobilization and sensitization achieved in the run-up General Election,  a phenomenon unlikely to recur anytime soon.

    When the Governor of the Central Bank could not be reached several weeks ago and his framework of monetary and fiscal policies was in danger of imminent collapse, it was bruited          in some circles that he was on his way to Chatham House to reassure the watchdogs of international finance and capital that their interests were as safe in Nigeria as they could be anywhere in the world. 

    He was however constrained to interrupt his trip and return home to deal with a scurrilous campaign not merely to topple him from his CBN perch, but to get him prosecuted on charges of – wait for it – sponsoring terrorism!

    Sources claiming no closeness to Godwin Emefiele tell me that he plans to head to Chatham House as soon as those pesky annoyances are sorted out.

    Alleging that the university lecturers’ union ASUU has not been transparent, the Minister of Labour, Employment and Productivity. Dr Chris Ngige, seems set to sideline it and register in its place the Congress of University Academics and the National Association of Medical and Dental Academics (CONUA.)

    Ngige, I gather, will be making a case for ASUU’s defenestration in a speech at Chatham House, at a date to be announced.  Officials of the ministry have been mobilized to draft an iron-clad brief, documenting ASUU’s record of intransigence no matter who is in government.

    Dependable sources tell me that ASUU heartily welcomes Dr Ngige’s initiative and will use a Chatham House appearance to eviscerate his case clause by clause, sentence by sentence, and paragraph by paragraph. 

    It will bring attention to what it calls the scandalous underfunding of education in Nigeria by successive Nigerian governments and the unconscionable pauperization of university teachers, and use the occasion to mobilize support for its cause from its counterpart in the UK and the  European Union.

    Oil producers, marketers and consumers are taking their respective cases to Chatham House too, with special reference to subsidies.  Tracing just where those pesky interventions stand has been compared to locating the position of sub-atomic particles in quantum mechanics.  They are here one moment and yonder the next moment, without appearing to have moved.  It is all so confusing.

    They are hoping to sort out, finally at Chatham House, the vexed question of who has been subsidising or fleecing whom.

    The foregoing is only a partial listing of Nigeria’s public figures, institutions and groups who have Chatham on their mind.  But even that is already straining that institution’s capacity and is likely to make them reconsider their open-door policy toward requests from Nigeria. 

    So, if you have Chatham House on your mind, hurry up before they shut those hallowed doors and tell “those querulous Nigerians to take their squabbles elsewhere,” as a senior policy adviser is reported to have counseled in a memo due to be reviewed soon by the Board.

  • Cross-appeal

    Cross-appeal

    By Olakunle Abimbola

    Cross-appeal — that phrase captures the constitutional requirements to win the Presidency: overall majority votes; plus a quarter of the votes cast in two-third of the 36 states of Nigeria.  That is 24 states.

    None of the candidates — leading or fringe — boasts a home region of 24 states.

    Only Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano), of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), comes from the North West, which has seven states.  Peter Obi (Anambra), of the Labour Party (LP), boasts five states in his native South East.  

    Bola Tinubu (Lagos) of APC has a home region of six states, same as the North East of Atiku Abubakar (Adamawa) of PDP.

    So, even if Kwankwaso locks up all of the North West votes, he has absolutely no path to the Presidency if he doesn’t make a dent on other geo-political zones.

    That would appear Kwankwaso’s weakest link, despite entering the fray with the highest number of states in his home region.  Indeed, this strength is his innate weakness — for his name appears to resonate little outside his home region.  In the South, particularly, Kwankwaso is a little less than a distant echo.

    That’s a big shame, for Kwankwaso, as two-term, non-consecutive governor of Kano, showed brilliant vision and acute policy thrusts — a policy thrust rich in infrastructure, agriculture and education, that his successor and former deputy, Abdullahi Ganduje, has furiously built upon.

    In zonal cross-appeal, particularly outside the North, Kwankwaso has little path to the Presidency, other things being equal.  But because of his criss-cross between APC and PDP, he might hurt both parties in his native Kano and catchment areas. Should there be a run-off, he might end up the northern beautiful bride to the top two.

    Still, Kwankwaso appears to nurse limited expectations, dubbing his NNPP no more than Nigeria’s “fastest growing party”.  Not so Obi — his dreamy counterpart, who appears yoked to unrealistic dreams.

    That Obi’s home region boasts the least of states — five — should not count against him anymore than seven should give Kwankwaso a bounce.  But with little cross-appeal, Obi’s run is even narrower than his partisans would ever admit.

    Besides, Obi runs on a frothing relay of self-delusion and happy illusion, which continues to blow in his face, though he and his crowd are too far gone to admit that self-imposed debacle.

    He started with fake stats.  Then, he self-robed as crusader-in-chief for Nigeria’s angry youths, hoping to parasite on their fickleness, by exploiting current challenges.  

    As electioneering grinds on, however, those fake stats — from China and Bangladesh — have dried up.  His rude and surly e-youths, proud and supremely uncouth on the social media, are getting eerily quieter too.  

    He has also quit his hitherto triumphal growl, that rather silly howl, that you don’t need infrastructure to grow and drive an economy.  All you need, Holy Gregory, the immaculate economic philosopher claimed, was to grow small businesses.  Pray, what would power these small ventures but supportive infrastructure?

    Then, he self-canonized as the new deal, after, for good or for ill, being a proven veteran of the old rot he now hypocritically declaims: first, APGA: then, PDP; and now LP.  The same rank opportunism that made Obi to dump APGA for PDP has now pushed him to LP.

    For how long would a candidate pump himself full with white lies?

    Truth be told: Obi’s run is a cross between personal ambition (hardly a crime) and projected ethnic victimhood as electoral blackmail (all is fair in war, perhaps?)

    How that twin-formula, personal and collective, works out will be made manifest on February 25.  Still, among these four, Obi seems enduring the thinnest path to the Presidency, being the least with cross-appeal.  But then, there are always surprises.

    Abubakar Atiku!  Being a former Vice President and veteran runner for President, no one can deny Atiku’s easy name recognition.  He also has a nationwide network of friends, which will readily aid his cause, outside strict partisan fealty or antagonism.

    Still, it’s hard to say if Atiku’s name evokes popularity or notoriety — and his past public records are why.  

    Forget the APC-and-PDP-are-the-same sentimental claptrap.  In less than eight years, the Buhari government, in a period of acute national crunch, has much more to show than PDP ever had in 16 years of relative ease.

    This fact is despite a media often rigged against reason, or just yoked to self-loathing, or simply glories in bad news, or revels in banal thinking.

    This new reckoning — of verifiable achievements — has condemned presidential candidates, who had run governments before, to call out their achievements during their last tours.

    But that hasn’t exactly given Atiku a bounce, particularly when juxtaposed with APC candidate, Tinubu.  Tinubu was governor in Lagos while Atiku was Vice President in Abuja.

    Goaded by partisan envy or supreme ignorance, the Obasanjo/Atiku central czars shut down Tinubu’s Lagos innovative thinking: Enron and the independent power concept; Lagos’ rainbow metro rail, blocked by a gruff federal monopoly of the rail corridor; orchestrated blue murder over approaching the stock market to fund public works.  Yet, these ideas have triumphed over the years.

    But the most damning PDP-era metaphor came with the Bar Beach floods.  The Obasanjo-Atiku crowd kept throwing sand — and money — at the raging waves.  But Tinubu’s Lagos conceived the Eko Atlantic City.  

    Years later, Obasanjo’s federal cash is gone with the sand — as a fool rid of his trove.  But Lagos’ Atlantic City has not only saved the alluring Victoria Island and tony assets, it has also attracted the biggest American Embassy complex in the entire globe!  

    The triumph of winning ideas over combative ignorance!

    Sweeter: PMB, for two days now, has been inaugurating cutting-edge infrastructure in Lagos: the Blue Line (rail), and kicking off its second phase; Imota, Ikorodu Rice Mill (agriculture); and Lekki Deep Sea Port (maritime), all brilliant Lagos ideas backed by PMB’s federal might, for once a force for good — and barely a month to the presidential election too!

    This is a sharp contrast to — and rebuke of — Atiku regaling in a PDP “glorious” past that never was; but instead evokes a thick stench of rot, except among blind partisans.

    Does it then mean Tinubu is galloping clear to the presidential diadem?  Hardly!  There are clear threats: fuel scarcity is one.  Banditry, terrorism and kidnapping are another — going down, to be sure, but not without a last-ditch fight.

    Still, in cross-appeal, Tinubu’s past choices, in politics and policies, cohere with PMB’s sharp infrastructure thrusts to give presidential rivals sleepless nights.  Come February 25, the electorate would settle the matter.

  • Cost of frivolous suit

    Cost of frivolous suit

    Former President Donald Trump of United States of America and his counsel were fined nearly $1 million for filling a frivolous law suit against the former presidential candidate of the Democratic Party, Senator Hilary Clinton.  According to media report, Southern District of Florida Judge Donald M. Middlebrooks held: “This case should never have been initiated. Its inadequateness as a legal claim was immediately apparent.” The judge went on: “No reasonable lawyer would have filed it. Intended for political purpose, none of the counts of the amended complaint stated a cognisable claim.”

    He further held: “A continuing pattern of misuse of courts by Mr Trump and his lawyers undermines the rule of law, portrays judges as partisans, and diverts resources from those who have suffered actual legal harm.” He decided that former President Trump, “is the mastermind of strategic abuse of the judicial process, and he cannot be seen as a litigant blindly following the advice of a lawyer.”

    I have quoted the report extensively because the words of the judge are instructive for our judiciary as we march down to the general elections.   

    No doubt we have many who like Donald Trump use the courts to achieve political purposes. Indeed, some have alluded that our courts have become a veritable way to gain political position, just like the ballot box. Some have gone as far as openly referring to a sitting governor as a Supreme Court governor. So, it is instructive that judges heed the advice of their learned brother and come down hard on litigants and lawyers who prosecute cases that could depict the court as partisan.

    Filling frivolous suits is a form of abuse of court process or abuse of judicial process. In Sheriff v PDP (2017) 14 NWLR, abuse of court process was explained to mean that “the process of the court has not been used bona fide and properly. It also connotes the employment of judicial process by a party in improper use to the irritation or annoyance of his opponent and the efficient and defective administration of justice.”

    Again, in Ikine v Edjerode (2002) F.W.L.R Pt. 92, the Supreme Court held: “For an action to be declared frivolous, vexatious, oppressive and an abuse of the process of court, it must be shown quite clearly that there are two or more actions between the same parties in respect of the same subject matter in one or more courts at the same time.” This type of abuse is common when a plaintiff is in undue haste to stop the happening of an event, especially of a political nature. 

    In Ajaokuta Steel Company Limited v Greenbay Investment & Securities Limited & Ord (2019) Legalpedia (SC) 11661, it was stated: “The common feature of abuse of court process is the improper use of judicial process by a party in litigation the most common one being multiplicity of action on the same issues between the same parties and instituting different actions between the same parties in different courts.” The court further held: “Abuse of the process of court, where it occurs, constitute a fundamental defect the effect of which results in the dismissal of the abusive process.”

    In Nwosu v P.D.P (2018) 14 NWLR (Pt. 1640) 532, it was held: “The court reserves the prerogative and the inherent jurisdiction to protect itself from an abuse of its process and any case which is an abuse must go under the hammer so as to halt the drift created by the abuse.” In Nigeria, one of the commonest forms of abuse of court process is what is described as forum shopping, and courts in federal capital, Abuja, appears to be most targeted.

    Politicians would conveniently approach the Federal High Court in the capital city for disputes that arose several hundreds of kilometres away, on the premise that the court has Nigeria as a single jurisdiction. Another form of forum shopping that is common is the desire by litigants to seek for malleable judges who would do their bidding. That is usually done in connivance with the registry, which knows the sequence in assigning cases that would push the case to a preferred judge.

    One of the commonest reasons for frivolous suits is the use of courts for delay tactics. Persons who have no cause of action file cases or make applications knowing that the courts are under obligation to hear any matter before it, before it can declare it as frivolous or meritorious. While the process is on, time and money is lost by the innocent defendant. In cases where the issue at stake is time bound, unimaginable losses usually occur while the cases or applications are pending in court.

    As the elections draw closer, some of the candidates have been under litigation-siege, as all manner of cases are filled to frustrate their participation in the electoral process. Amongst the presidential candidates, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressive Congress (APC) is perhaps the most exposed to the highest number of litigation, principally to stop his participation in the electoral process. While there have been different plaintiffs, most of the cases have been on the same subject matter, to compel the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to disqualify Tinubu from the race.     

    Interestingly, while the plaintiffs abandon some of the cases, the rest are usually dismissed, wherein the courts described the plaintiffs as meddlesome interlopers or busy bodies. Perhaps because the plaintiffs are usually different persons, even though the subject matters of the cases are similar, the courts have not descended heavily on the plaintiffs as in Donald Trump’s case in the United States. So, while most of the cases have been used to the “irritation, annoyance and harassment” of Tinubu, yet they fail to qualify as abuse of court process.

    One imagines what would be the reaction of litigants should a Nigerian court summon the courage to impose an equivalent of $1 million on a litigant who has made filling of frivolous application a past-time. In Professor Ayodele Awojobi v Dr Samuel Osaigbovo Ogbemudia (1983) 8 SC 92 at page 96, the Supreme Court as per Justice Aniagolu, JSC, stated thus: “I consider the frequency with which this appellant goes in and out of our courts as bringing him dangerously within the meaning of a vexatious litigant who should be restrained by the courts on the principles laid down in Lawrence v Norreys (1890) 15 App. Cas. 210 and Haggarg v Felicier Frerres (1892) AC 61.”

    In Trump’s case it is interesting to note that the court made the order to pay a fine of $1 million against the plaintiff and his counsel. Victims of frivolous suits will surely wish Nigerian courts would summon courage to make such an award.