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Category: Sanya Oni

A waste of time

A weak-kneed federal government ever so eager to claw at just anything to be seen at doing something about the Boko Haram menace. A weary Boko Haram caught in dire prospects of being routed in the senseless but clearly unwinnable war against the state.

Throw in the well-choreographed high-decibel propaganda by self-styled elders alleging genocide in the atmosphere of an unprecedented offensive by the Joint Military Task Force (JTF). No better scenario could have been contrived for a so-called dialogue.

Welcome to the Made in Saudi Arabia dialogue sought by the Boko Haram for and on behalf of themselves and their sympathisers! Finally, it seems time to bring in the old template of appeasement!

What has changed to necessitate the offer by the group to negotiate with the federal government?

Good question.

The first and perhaps the most obvious is the changing military equation between the JTF and the terrorists. Whatever misgivings lie about the on-going operations by the JTF, there is no longer any question as who between them is having the upper hand. I do not think anyone suffers the illusion that the men of the JTF would beat a retreat anymore than the terrorists would come to some Pauline conversion in some future time. To its credit, the JTF isn’t just increasingly having a firm grip on the war, it seems to have done well in the difficult circumstances it found itself. While it seems far-fetched to suggest at this point that the Boko Haram is close to being decapitated, there are enough signs to suggest that the noose may finally be tightening in on the group. This obviously needs to be sustained.

The second reason is the collateral costs on both sides which continues to mount. While the burden of the war on terror would seem barely tolerable to the federal government, the economies in most states in the North-east where the Boko Haram are on rampage not only lie in ruins, they are in tatters. But worse is that the prospects of socio-economic activities in the foreseeable future look increasingly grim. Unfortunately, it seems to me that the leaderships in the areas worst hit by the activities of the terrorists pretend to be oblivious of this reality; or is it that they underrated the resolve of the federal government to confront the menace?

How about their positions which have oscillated between playing the ostrich and feigning ambivalence on the Boko Haram question? Or their latest rallying cry in which the JTF is accused of genocide?

Agreed, the charge of excessive use of force including allegations of rape and summary executions of innocent citizens in the theatre of operations may possess some grains of truth. If true, the crimes would be inexcusable. However, it does appear to me that these cannot be as generalised as painted by the Borno Elders Forum. Of course, the allegations deserve to be investigated and where the crimes are established, punished.

Be that as it may, the nation as it is, would remain eternally in debt to the JTF to for pushing the costs of the insanity, or if you like the insurgency –to the sect and their sponsors – far beyond their assumed gains. That the option of dialogue has suddenly become conceivable is because the Boko Haram realises the futility of the war! The magic is to make things irreversible!

I need to highlight a third factor which has made dialogue conceivable. It is the question of how long it would take for the cover of the big masquerades behind the sect to be blown. It seems to me that it is no longer a question of “if” but how soon this would be achieved. It is after all, common knowledge that two senators and an ex-Governor from Borno State are under security watch; indeed, one of the senators is currently undergoing trial; the other under investigation for an alleged link with a suspect currently in custody. At intervals, the name of the ex-governor keeps popping up as if to hint at a complex but intriguing internecine play. By the way, I do not think that anybody needs further proof of how embedded the Boko Haram is in the North-east or wherever the forces of the Boko Haram have been on rampage.

So, how to go? Time for the security agencies to follow the money. It’s hard to imagine that the security agencies have up till this time not stumbled on valuable leads on the financiers of the Boko Haram.

What do I think about the proposed dialogue? Dialogue is of course good. It is after all, infinitely cheaper than fighting an all out war. The question is what will the Saudi dialogue as proposed by the Boko Haram achieve? More pertinent question is what does the Boko Haram want?

It may well be that the Saudi dialogue may help resolve the riddle of what the group really want or what it actually represents. For now, it seems premature to even speculate on whether their desires can be accommodated in a secular, republican state. Even then, it seems that the more immediate task is one of isolating the original Boko Haram from the mutant but no less bloody-thirsty variants loosed upon the nation.

That done, the next charge is to deal with the matter of the innocent victims of their mindless terror. Will that also come up in the course of the parley? Will the group also be willing to pay restitutions to victims of their terrorist acts? On a more serious note, will the leaders be expected to repudiate the satanic ideology which legitimises mass murder?

Of course, the more embracing question is whether, given the state of security in the North today, it would not amount to a sheer waste of time and resources to make the Boko Haram the issue. I make the point because of our penchant to treat symptoms rather than deal with organic causes of disease. The root of Boko Haram lies in poverty and failure of governance. Will those also be part of the agenda at the Saudi forum?

• This column goes on vacation from next week

November 6, 2012
A war Lagos must win

It seems unlikely that the protest by angry Okada riders last week took Lagosians by surprise. The resort to jungle tactics supposedly to protest the Lagos Traffic Law as it affected the activities of the group was largely expected. At the end of their rage, 10 Bus Rapid Transit buses were reportedly destroyed just as their anger was sufficient to guarantee hell for innocent Lagosians caught in the middle.

Much as the rights of citizens in a democracy to protest laws considered injurious to their group interest is conceded, the problem begins when such protests extend beyond the boundaries set by the law – in terms of its wanton violation of the rights of other citizens and brazen disregard for the demands of public order and safety. Such niceties were obviously lost on the hoodlums who vandalised the BRT buses and blocked the highways in the course of protest.

Even now, it must have dawned on the rioters that the battle with the state government on the restriction on Okada to designated routes is one they are unlikely to win. Surely, it cannot be that the mob desires a return to the ancien regime when they held court handing summary judgments to their hapless motorists’ victims on the highways.

Of all the factors said to have spurred the state government into taking the drastic steps to curb the menace represented by the Okada riders, the least articulated is the frightening counter-culture spawned by the rise of the business of ferrying human cargoes with motorcycles. To me, if the nation has enough reason to worry about the public safety and environment issues involved in the operation of Okadas, they have even far more to worry in that destructive culture of self-help and instant gratification that it spawned.

I am aware of the arguments that have served as self-justification for the business; that it emerged as self-help in the context of the suffocating economic environment of the 80s, something of a functional, creative response to the unprecedented unemployment and constricting opportunities faced by youths. Today, it has since become a way of life and sadly for many, an escape from the rigours and disciplines of learning a trade, and for some no hopers, a cover for criminal activities.

Like any law, the Lagos Traffic Law is far from perfect. I believe however that the law has carefully balanced the concerns for security, public safety, infrastructural and the environment with the needs of the operators. Beyond question, the law did not even pretend to be anything but a disincentive to the trade. However, it serves one important purpose of pushing the frontiers of the debate on public policy, forcing the nation to rethink the anomalous surge in a business that continues to put many innocent lives and limbs at risk.

Traditional explanations about the staying power of the business being linked to poverty and unemployment are probably as true today as they were in the 80s when they first emerged. However, it seems to me that the surge in recent years and their staying power would have to be located outside of this traditional explanation to embrace what is clearly the penchant by those involved in instant gratification. Of course, majority of those in the business are neither sufficiently educated to take advantage of the limited opportunities in the labour market, nor do they possess sellable skills to be gainfully employed by self or anyone. It has also been argued that the low capital threshold and the fact that there are very minimal barriers to entry make it doubly alluring.

There is however question that the business thrives because many involved would not even consider the option of either learning a trade or trying their hands on other worthwhile economic activities. The latter is something to worry about not only because it explains the dearth of critical skills, it is also the source of raw aggression and the accompanying group action often associated with the business.

The question of the extent of accommodation that could be allowed the operators in the rapidly transforming megacity would certainly remain “live” just as the larger issues of public policy involved would remain open to debate for some time to come. It is, I guess, a derivative of the let-live argument which attempted to rationalise the sprawling squalor of Makoko or its jungle variant in Ajegunle both of which the government in Lagos has had to confront at different time in the past. Even then, it seems that the Lagos State government is far-sighted than many would rather give it credit for at this point in time. One can only hope, at least for the sake of the future of this country that the state government, as indeed other state governments that have restricted the operators will stay the course.

October 30, 2012
Welcome, dual society

In a society where dastardly occurences have virtually become daily menu, it is safe to bet that the current rage over the bestial killings of the four undegraduates of University of Port Harcourt in Omuokere-Aluu Community, Rivers State would fizzle out in no time. In other words, the rage would endure – only for as long as it takes the next cycle of horror of greater scale or dimension to occur – after which citizens so minded would again resort to taking stock of how far down the slope we have sunk on the human regression index.

After all, it was not even nearly 14 days after the nation endured a similar horror of gruesome murder of 40 students at Mubi Polytechnic, in Adamawa State. On that particular occassion, the names of victims were said to have been called out from a register only to be shot at point blank! It can hardly get more macabre. Coincidentally, the gory incident happened on a day regarded as sacred on the nation’s calendar – the 52nd Independence Anniversary!

Three weeks on, all manners of theories have popped up on the possible suspects and motives; the missing link is the suggestion that a breakthrough is near the corner. The police have neither found helpful clues nor the communities been helpful in tracking the killers. They may well have come from any of those mountainous tribes close to the Afghan border!

Of course, the case of 16 innocent worshipers mowed down by gunmen during their service on August 6 is still fresh. True, arrests were made; beyond that, nothing has been heard about whether those held are the real killers of the worshippers or not.

A lot has been said about the failing Nigerian state. But the murder of the lads stands apart in its savagery even in the worst of times. Last weekend, I finally summoned the courage to watch the video on You Tube. Let me confes: I regretted the experience. Of course, I detected something eerily disturbing – suggesting perhaps a new phase, if you like, in the nation’s descent into the abyss. Although the virus of impunity has been with us for some time now, what I saw “live” in the lynching of Messrs Biringa Chiadika Lordson, Ugonna Kelechi Obuzor, Mike Lloyd Toku and Tekena Erikena – the so-called Uniport Four – is a completely new malignancy, a madness that speaks to the final internmnent of the community as a normative order.

To begin with, how could I, for the life of me, imagine that a human being actually held that camera to record the gory spectacles of those young men being marched through the community after being stripped naked for alleged stealing a phone and laptop? All in the course of a job? Good heavens! Or, for the pleasure of filming an event for the world to see?

What about the emergency jury of young men, women and even children, conscripted in the course of the the rite of summary trial and death? Did anyone notice how they cheered the jury on, perhaps from the love of the spectacle of watching those young boys die a most agonising death in instalments? I could imagine among the mob – fathers, mothers, brothers, uncles, aunties, nephews and nieces; did they get “high” watching their victims suffer pains?

And the final act: the roasting of those bodies after pulverising and reducing them to vegetative states? It is a measure of how sick a people, nay a nation can get.

There were reports that a detachment of the Nigeria Police actually stood by while the gory events lasted. True or false; it changes nothing. The Nigerian state failed the youths; it failed itself most shamefully. Neither the DPO covering the area or his men have any business remaining in the police force. They have earned their place among the vigilantes!

True, Aluu may well represent the final testament, the internment of the notion of the orderly society to which we pretend to aspire, the seal of our descent to the Hobbesian state of nature, it did not chance upon us. Our march to that jungle may have been slow and halting, it has been incremental and steady. It began a long time ago.

Today, the talk is that the Nigerian state is failing. It seems so given that we do not even pretend anymore about that. At least, not with evidences in the countless militias ruling our lives, the laws that have been rendered inoperable and unworkable; the impunity writ large that is now the order of the day; the public sphere that daily spew hate; a hopelesly inept government and a pathetic citizenry plus of course the thieving mob now running some government houses in the country.

Welcome to the dual society – a society of we versus them; indigene versus outsider (or settler); the rich versus the commoner; the faithful versus the unbelieving, etc.

Whereas the rich can afford to mock the law; the poor insists on his version of law. The rich can afford a battery of lawyers to twist and bend the process to save his skin; the poor has his therapy in summary justice. The rich has the police; the poor has the vigilante. Whereas the rich has the temperament to indulge in all manners of theatrics in the courtroom, the poor has a ready-made solution: instance justice.

Where do these lead? Your guess is as good as mine.

Feedback

I take interest in reading your Policy column every Tuesday. I’m happy that someone like you takes time to analyse the lip service paid to economic and social development by both the executive and those with oversight responsibility. We are over-governed in this country. The federating units in terms of the number of states are too many. Unless we can return to not more than six geo-political zones with each having control of the resources within her domain and contributing to the centre as in the First Republic, the groundwork for real economic development will not be laid.

Right now, the states are weak; rather than look inwards for internal revenue generation, they all look towards Abuja for monthly allocation that is largely shared or spent on recurrent expenditure. This leaves little or nothing for capital expenditure. Until we reduce the number of states that will become competitive again, development will continue to elude this country. Please find time to point attention to this. Sincerely, we need to move from Presidential to parliamentary where the ministers will be responsible both to their constituency and to parliament. We shall then have true federalism. Thank you.

Chief M.A. Olorunfemi

October 16, 2012
Why some things can’t change

Just as rows between the executive and the National Assembly over budgets have become a permanent fixture of the nation’s experience, it is fairly easy to spot the contrived nature of the latest row now on the verge of being escalated. That the National Assembly is again hinting at a showdown with the executive over the shape and size Budget 2013 clearly suggest that the issues involved in the division are far more intricate, or rather deeper, than the parties would let Nigerians into. After all, it is barely two months since the Lower House threatened President Goodluck Jonathan with the sword of impeachment over an alleged failure to implement Budget 2012.

Whereas the bone of contention last time was the performance of the budget, this time, the disagreement centres on the basis of revenue estimates – the reference benchmark price for the nation’s crude to be used in the formulation of Budget 2013. The executive is said to have set the price at $75 a barrel –consistent with its 2013-15 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy, whereas the lawmakers prefer the higher price of $82 a barrel as part of its plans to reduce the budget deficit.

The more I reflect on the tango, the more I am reminded of the story of husband and wife locked in a feud. While both partners admit to the raging low-intensity war; however, the matter of the casus belli, being matters behind drawn curtains, would remain a guarded secret!

It does not matter that the ordinary citizens, on whose behalf the whole theatricals are being staged, are for all intents and purposes, unknown quantities in the equation. Indeed, by the time the whole brouhaha is stripped of the pretences and the attendant grandstanding, the issues underlying the feud comes to nothing on substantive matters of governance – the very things that are supposed to count.

Not that the unfolding drama does not have a comical side to it. Courtesy of the impeachment axe dangled by the lawmakers in August, the budget implementation is believed to have gone some notches up – with the finance ministry reportedly turning on the treasury tap with capital releases to Ministries, Departments and Agencies in deference to the threat. However, while the degree of implementation remains a subject of guesstimates, the question of why the funds were held up in the first place has not quite been sufficiently addressed by the finance ministry. That obviously would have to wait – that is if it will ever get attention.

For the Presidency, the dividend has come by way of the latest mantra: the mantra of performance contracts for ministers and other strategic officials of government. This is what the lack-lustre administration appears to have hung its new activism. Added to this is the fad –road shows mounted by ministers and heads of parastatals to announce commitments to timelines and specific deliverables in the budgets they formulated in the first place!

Of course, it seems unlikely that the angers of the Reps spoiling for war over perceived poor budget implementation of Budget 2012 would be doused permanently anytime soon. In the first place, the field reports from its oversight activities would seem to suggest that the rosy picture of implementation painted by the executive is not exactly correct. Indeed, Abdulmumin Jubrin, the Chairman of the House Committee stated that much when he reportedly told the duo of Yerima Ngama and Bright Okogwu, the Minister of State for Finance and Director-General of the Budget Office penultimate week that the degree of implementation remained “dismal”. Second reason is the status of the pork said to have been built into the budget by the lawmakers which Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala described as the fuel feeding the lawmakers fury. See why the lawmakers cannot but be angry?

What we are seeing would seem a case of the lawmakers bidding their time with the benchmark price of crude assumed in Budget 2013 supplying the perfect foil. Whereas the executive wants the 2012 benchmark crude price of $75 per barrel retained, the lawmakers have since reasoned that a higher price of $82 would be desirable.

Of course, the argument has long endured – and I agree to an extent – that a conservative benchmark price makes sense given the potential volatility of oil prices and the need to insulate the budgetary process from its possible shocks.

The arguments of the lawmakers in favour of higher benchmark price are, without question, no less persuasive. Adopting the higher price means hiking the federally collectable revenue to N7.9 trillion from the N7.3 trillion figures of 2012. Aside translating to a federal government share of N4.137 trillion, the case of the hike would be better appreciated when it is realised that the 2013 Budget has an in-built deficit in excess of N1.3 trillion. Need I add that higher revenue figures portend good for the pork described as constituency projects?

The old illusions are, no doubt, back. I refer here to the illusion that more cash in the coffers would somehow translate to better budget performance. This is where, in my view, the lawmakers erred tragically. They want more cash, no doubt; the pertinent question however is – more cash, for what?

Let me be clear, I have argued on this page that there is no way meaningful development can be achieved without bold and equally ambitious programmes of public expenditure, particularly in upgrading the enablers of the real sector. Just as it seems clear to me that the problem isn’t so much about what gets spent but the question of the value delivered in the end, it is even clearer that the posturing by the lawmakers over a patently flawed budgetting system is unhelpful.

Isn’t it amazing that the lawmakers cannot appreciate this elementary point – that for every naira spent to deliver on capital projects, the federal government currently spends thrice the amount to service the running of the bureaucracy and the allied infrastructure of governance? Are we ever going to address the question of how the bureaucracy’s cart has come to drag the nation’s development horse?

I must also state that the posturing of the executive is no less hollow. Apparently, it seems in order that the federal government would continually impose the so-called benchmark price by fiat and without the concurrence of state governments – co-beneficiaries from the consolidated fund. And while it suits it, it mounts the high streets with its vacuous preachments on frugality even when – as the example of the illegal subsidy payments does show – it is not exactly averse to unilaterally dipping its itchy fingers into the piggy bank called the excess crude account.

I guess it’s time someone out there educate the rest of us on what makes the federal government believe that it has exclusive preserve of common sense. I suppose the same goes for the need for reconsideration of the basis on which the so-called funds are shared by the two-tiers of government. By the way, where are the federalists?

October 9, 2012
Nigeria at 52

To anyone in the business of public comment, one uncomfortable burden must be the duty to constantly answer to the question of whether Nigeria is headed in the right direction at every turn. Like the cliché goes – as it was in the past, so it was yesterday, so it would be tomorrow – and evermore. Like the proverbial bad coin that keep showing up at intervals, the question of the nation’s destination would again pop up at the occasion of its 52th independence anniversary.

Let me state that ritual of self-score that keeps producing what most Nigerians have come to regard as spurious verdicts – which suggest that the nation is finally getting things right – is nothing unusual. As uncomfortable as that ritual of outlandish self-assessment is, and which successive administrations have entertained themselves to at the expense of the long-suffering citizens, it does serves one important function of letting citizen into the mind of the leader – if only to allow them measure how far detached the leadership is from their reality.

Take yesterday’s address by President Goodluck Jonathan with its beautiful presentation of the economy as one finally revving in full throttle: an economy which in the last two years has maintained a sustained path of growth with the real Gross Domestic Product averaging 7.1 percent.

Until yesterday, I actually thought that we had gone beyond such meaningless statistics. After the spurious growth of the last decade that neither delivered jobs nor spread prosperity, I thought the adumbrations ought to have been tempered by the frightening reality of joblessness and rising poverty in the land. In vain did I search for recognition for the troubling, but long recognised fact.

Now, I understand: the path would point in the direction of an underachieving presidency!

From the power situation, to the economy; from job creation to security, the President insisted that he has his hands firmly on the handle. Unfortunately, the citizens who have borne the brunt of the failed policies of the administration couldn’t be sure.

It seems not too long ago that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) drew our attention to the yawning disconnect between the growth and the incidence of poverty. I recall the bureau summarising the trend this way in February: “In 2004, Nigeria’s relative poverty measurement stood at 54.4 per cent but increased to 69 per cent or 112.518 million Nigerians in 2010″.

The statistician would observe in summary that “It remains a paradox… that despite the fact that the Nigerian economy is growing, the proportion of Nigerians living in poverty is increasing every year.”

Did the President offer proof to show that the trend has changed? He didn’t. He needn’t. Nigerians know that things have grown worse, not better!

Let’s move swiftly to the President’s claim of performance in the real sector. In the President’s own words: “we have improved on our investment environment; more corporate bodies are investing in the Nigerian economy. Our Investment Climate Reform Programme has helped to attract over N6.8 trillion local and foreign direct investment commitments”.

Was it entirely surprising that the President would not see his score-card as complete without touting Nigeria’s emerging status as the preferred destination for investment in the continent? Hear the President: “the nation’s share of total FDI flows into the continent is in excess of 20 per cent”. Really? Where?

There are of course the add-ons which he threw in; the registration of close to 7, 000 companies within the second quarter of the year alone; the 249-odd new members enrolled in the manufacturers’ club – the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) as at July this year. All these – the President seems to have reasoned – were proof enough of the economy in full flight.

If Nigerians expected the administration to be forthcoming on the specifics of jobs created through the trillion-naira FDI, they got none. Rather, it was sufficient for the President to claim that millions of job opportunities are being created for the youth and the general population – in public works, in the local content initiative in the oil and Gas sector and the agricultural transformation programme of his administration!

Now, there must be something extraordinary in the federal government’s professed love for FDI at a time when no finger is being lifted to help the few indigenous companies. The result is that many of them have bitten since the dust. Does the love of FDI reflect our typical preference for dispensing our charities abroad?

Now, FDI is good. Often touted as a measure of international confidence in the national economy, it is admittedly a sign that some things are being done right. The problem however is the fetish being made of the so-called FDIs.

Coincidentally, as this is being written, I have a report quoting the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA) as stating that no fewer than 800 indigenous companies closed shop between 2009 and 2011 due to harsh operating business environment. While it seems unlikely that those in the list would be among the 249 which the President’s hyperactive MAN recently enrolled on their membership register, the President did no more than gloss over the issue of the harsh operating environment which has rendered manufacturing business a nightmare.

For instance, nowhere did I hear the President address the question of easier access to credit; the unconscionably steep interest rates; the poor transportation infrastructure all of which constitute significant cost elements in manufacturing, but which with proper attention from government would keep the economy roaring.

Not while there was something to boast about in the modest improvement in the power supply situation, the arrival of the Presidential cassava bread, the Presidential rice which promises to keep Thailand rice permanently outside our shores. Oh; I nearly forgot the dozen-plus contracts to revive the railways!

Finally, does it count for anything that the Presidential Change of Guards –part of the independence ceremonies – was again held within the fortresses of the Villa?

Does it equally matter that the place of the once bright and colourful Eagle Square as host to national events have since faded into distant memories?

Talk about the dread of the Boko Haram being the beginning of Presidential wisdom.

Here is to Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala

At a forum in Awka, the Anambra State capital sometime in August 2011, you spoke of the plan by the Goodluck Jonathan administration to overhaul the mortgage system. Then, you rightly identified the absence of the mortgage institution as one of the key drivers of corruption in the public service. I thought the idea was spot on.

It seems easy to imagine that a good number of the public servants under pressure to steal public funds in order to be able to put a roof over their heads would be less pressured to do if they access to relatively affordable mortgage.

Well, it’s been more than a year since you let us into the plan. Do we need to wait till 2020 for the plan to materialise?

October 2, 2012
The wages of obduracy

The nation ought to see itself in debt of gratitude to President Goodluck Jonathan for terminating Project Cure – Sanusi’s obsession with finding cure for ringworm when a more malignant cancer is indicated. There are several reasons why Nigerians ought to be grateful for the mercy intervention by the President.

First, it seemed unlikely that the “curers” would ever come to agreement with majority of citizens on the need, or lack thereof, for the curious therapy. The situation is hardly helped by the perception of the CBN as an arrogant, insular institution that sees itself above the common herd; certainly not one to be swayed by the weight of public opinion.

Secondly, never, it seems, has a therapy proven to be so divisive; it seems to have verged to the point of constituting a major distraction both to the administration and to the apex bank itself. With due respect to the assumed merits as sold by the apex bank, Nigerians seem to have convinced themselves that the unique selling point simply fell short – and miserably too – on the list of items that should constitute the priority for the bankers bank.

Furthermore, it was one instance in which the apex bank would seek to re-write the rule of economics –a science that prides itself as one involving choice among competing possibilities. When majority of Nigerians appeared united in their rejection of the restructuring, the CBN threatened a fiat as if it was itself not a creation of statute. Not once or twice did I hear the CBN maintain that the planned exercise was not open to debates since it claimed the measure not only had the backing of the law, but had the approval of the President.

The President’s intervention, in my view, may have in fact saved the CBN from itself. Unfortunately, one of the unintended consequences of the Sanusi obduracy is the current situation in which a reconsideration of the entire notion of the apex bank’s so-called autonomy is being called up.

Now, I know a throng out there who would argue that this is no more than a knee-jerk, or if you may, reflex reaction to the Sanusi exuberance. They are probably right just as I would argue that one needed not to cut the nose to spite the face.

But the question of foreclosing the debate on the future of the apex bank, particularly the notion of its autonomy belongs in a different realm. Agreed, there are those who would rather see things from the narrow prism of current experience – something of a punishment for the proverbial lone bull raging in the financial house’s china shop, an individual whose abiding love for hugging controversies would ordinarily appear as incompatible with the conservative traditions of the apex banking institution. But clearly, there are other Nigerians who see in the debate, a great opportunity to realign the rules of the apex bank, to make its processes more transparent and to ensure a more accountable institution.

This is where the current concern about the apex bank’s autonomy comes in. What is autonomy anyway? I understand the word at two levels. One is operational; the other is best described as administrative and procedural.

The former is what needs to be preserved. Indeed, I have not heard anyone argue that MRR or whatever monetary policy instruments the apex bank may chose to adopt be made a subject of extraneous oversight. Indeed, its capacity to respond to monetary policy challenges would probably need strengthening, not curtailment.

Outside of the monetary policy terrain however, there should be no such thing as absolute autonomy. A most vivid illustration is the requirement for the CBN to secure written approval from the President in any plan to restructure the naira. Coincidentally, I have not quite seen anyone argue that this requirement is neither necessary nor desirable. While those pushing for absolute autonomy do not bother to make the fine distinction, it seems to me a part of the deliberate muddling of facts to reinforce a particular line of argument.

The CBN Act of course says that the institution should be sacrosanct. That is precisely the issue. It needs not be. Why – because to allow it, is to make our CBN the most powerful one in the world.

I need to illustrate. Up till August 2009, it was doubtful that many Nigerians knew how powerful the CBN governor is. After the unprecedented sacking of the executive management of the then ailing banks, the situation would change. I couldn’t recall Nigerians expending much energy debating the action against the bank chiefs whose criminal lapses nearly brought the entire financial system to ruin. If my memory serves me right, most Nigerians readily agreed that the cups of the delinquent bankers were already full and running over.

But then, Nigerians would become divided over a number of issues. I cite two examples.

First, was the unilateral takeover of the banks without recourse to the club of existing shareholders. For a club not adjudged to have been culpable in bringing ruins to their institutions, the class was to suffer double jeopardy from the unchallengeable powers of the CBN. Aside being forced to wear the label ‘guilty by association’, their situation would be compounded with the denial by the apex bank of their right to recapitalise their institutions.

The second example is the apex bank’s unilateral injection of nearly N620 billion of bailout money from its till. Compare the intervention for instance, with the United States’ Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) –put in place by U.S. President George W. Bush on October 3, 2008 to purchase assets and equity from financial institutions as a means of strengthening the country’s financial sector in the wake of the global credit meltdown.

Or even the takeover of the US troubled lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the wake of the sub-prime lending crisis. Both interventions were undertaken by the US Treasury (the equivalent of our finance ministry) as against the Federal Reserve (the apex bank); in both instances, the relevant laws were passed by the US Congress.

The argument as to whether the nation can afford an institution that stands as a law unto itself is one that hasn’t been made convincingly by those making the case for the retention of the powers of the CBN as it is. It is not so much about hanging anything on the neck of the current helmsman whose temperament seems to have exacerbated the issue. Rather, it merely acknowledges the need to learn from our recent past even as the nation struggles to chart a new course in financial rectitude. Global best practices or not, can anything be wrong with evolving a home-grown solution to our problems?

September 25, 2012
Before we crucify or applaud Nnaji

In a country not accustomed to probity and accountability especially in public office, the resignation or sacking of a public officer over conflict of interest in the discharge of his or her official duties calls for serious reflection.

The departure of Professor Barth Nnaji as Nigeria’s Minister of Power last week offered an opportunity to assess the commitment or otherwise of the Goodluck Jonathan administration to transparency in governance and how far or close we are to achieving that goal.

Although it remains unclear whether the former Minister left voluntarily or forced to resign (another name for sack), his exit, coming on the heels of the administration’s new drive to promote performance in government through the recently introduced Performance Contract Agreement by Ministers could be an indication that the government was finally ready to deliver on its promises to Nigerians. And one of those promises is the provision of no fewer than 10,000 Megawatt of electricity to the national grid, a task Professor Nnaji was expected to achieve, and I think he was well on the way to doing just that. Given the very low level of electricity generation in the country prior to assuming office, achieving the present 4,400 Megawatt was no mean achievement by Nnaji and nobody could deny that things were looking up in the power sector under the former Minister. So, what went wrong? Why did he resign or given the boot?

The man at the centre of it all said he had done nothing wrong, including the controversial conflict of interest accusation and left to protect the integrity of the Jonathan administration in the face of some powerful interest groups interested in manipulating the ongoing power sector reforms to their advantage. He had stepped on the toes of these groups in the course of his assignment.

President Jonathan has equally defended Nnaji claiming he had done well but for a certain conflict of interest involving a company in which the former Minister had an interest showing active interest in the ongoing power sector reform.

Depending on which spin on the sack/resignation you want to believe, the fact remains that something fishy has happened or is happening in the power sector which if not fished out and addressed immediately could affect the ongoing reform and our ability to generate enough Megawatts to power our economy. No fewer than 40,000 Megawatts of electricity, according to experts is needed to achieve this. How do we achieve this and in what way would the exit of Nnaji help?

If truly the sacking of the former Minister was due to the conflict of interest as alleged by the Federal Government, then his exit could help on the long run as it is expected that nobody in government with interest in the power sector no matter how remote and no matter how highly placed would be allowed to participate in the ongoing reform in the sector. This expectedly should also include some serving state governors who are alleged to be eyeing some of the successor companies to the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN).

The Federal Government would do well also to look beyond the issue of conflict of interest and address Nnaji’s allegation that some powerful interest groups whose toes he might have stepped on were behind his decision to quit. Although it is not uncommon in Nigeria for us to blame everybody but ourselves for our woes, the allegation should not be swept under the carpet as it is not unlikely that was the situation given the culture of insider abuse in Nigeria by people in position of authority in the country.

Rail transportation that was once the backbone of haulage business in Nigeria is in ruins no thanks to what the people believe to be the activities of some powerful individuals within and outside the government with interest in road transportation. Have you ever asked why Nigeria Airways died and some of our private airlines are still flying even in the face of harsh economic environment? The same could be said about the defunct Nigerian National Shipping Line (NNSL) and privately owned Nigerian shipping lines. The truth is that here we promote more of our selfish interest above that of the nation and protect same. So if Jonathan could kick out Nnaji to protect his flagship power sector programme, he should also not hesitate to fish out and punish those others bent on thwarting the programme or manipulate it for their selfish interest. Can he do it? On the evidence of his swift move against Nnaji, he should not find it difficult to deal with this powerful enemies within. But as it is with Jonathan, don’t expect anything and if it happens, then you are lucky.

Gauging from the reaction of members of the public to Nnaji’s departure from Jonathan’s cabinet, one could safely conclude that the former Minister is a man of integrity, but how he got caught up in this conflict of interest mess is still a surprise. More surprising is Jonathan’s feigned ignorance of Nnaji’s subsisting interest in the power sector even as a serving Minister.

It is public knowledge that the former Minister had substantial interest in a company, Geometric Power Limited which is a major player in the power sector. I am sure Jonathan made him a minister with a view to tapping his expertise and experience garnered over the years in the sector, including his years at Geometric. As it is the practice elsewhere,the man put all his interest in his company in a blind trust, severed all relationship with Geometric and headed to the Ministry of Power to serve his fatherland with love and strength and faith. But how ‘blind’ do we expect this trust or even the Minister to be when a business venture that will naturally interest the company comes up in the Ministry? This is where the problem lies and I think this gave rise to the doctrine of conflict of interest. I think putting private interest in a blind trust while serving the public was a legitimate window to insulate a public officer from the accusation of conflict of interest. This Nnaji did and I think Jonathan knew about it before appointing him a Minister. The SSS must have discovered this during their investigation the report of which must have influenced the Senate confirmation during his screening. With this known to those who should know, at what point did Nnaji violate his oath of office? Did he do anything while in office that was not known as at the time he was being made a Minister or did he do anything that was anticipated then? If he had not done anything new or unknown to Jonathan before to warrant being sacked on account of conflict of interest then the charge of conflict of interest cannot stand. There must be something else behind his sack; there is more to it than we are being told. Could it be those big toes that Nnaji stepped on that are behind his sack? Only Jonathan knows, but the president will not tell us. What a shame? And if the media talk now he will say we are biased.

Nnaji himself is not without blame in this matter. How can he be so naive to think that he can eat his cake and have it? The law on this conflict of interest thing we are told is very clear, to allow a breach is like allowing insider trading on the stock exchange; it is unethical. If anyone had assured him that “nothing will happen”, now he knows better. You don’t trust the promise of a politician. Now as for those calling for his reinstatement, it is rather too late as the Federal Government has conveniently placed this charge of conflict of interest on his neck and except he or Jonathan opens up on it and tell us the truth, the charge is enough to keep him away from public office at least for now.

That pipeline fire in Lagos

Lagos has again experienced another pipeline fire due to activities of vandals. And at the rate this thing happens we might need a dedicated security outfit to protect this important economic facility. And since our security agencies appear incapable of doing this who is better placed to do it than the vandals themselves; the pipeline thieves. If we could hand over the protection of pipelines in the Niger Delta to ex militants and pay them millions of dollar every year, then the vandals here deserve the same thing, don’t you think so? This is the implication of implementing stupid policies. Jonathan over to you.

September 18, 2012
Nnaji and the power sector jinx

For watchers of the developments in the troubled power sector, something akin to a disaster befell the nation with the ouster of Professor Barth Nnaji as power minister Wednesday August 28. For a sector that has just begun to witness some modest improvements in service delivery across the board, it was a perhaps a case of the Nigerian gnome knowing when to strike for maximum effect. That it consumed the individual who in the last months – by the estimation of the generality of citizens – gave so much and added so much value to the hitherto moribund sector is perhaps best explained by the Nigerian jinx.

I describe Nnaji exit as unfortunate essentially because the affair is foreseeable. For a sector being primed for the most comprehensive overhaul in its history, it was perhaps expected that the entrenched forces of the ancien regime would not let go without a fight. In this, the government seems to have supplied the catalyst when it failed to anticipate the problem. Although it seems now convenient for the same government to play the Pontius Pilate, its feigning of innocence is to put it mildly, hypocritical. That the issue of conflict of interest which provided the ammo for Nnaji’s ouster did not come up earlier is only because there was no basis for conflict at the earlier stages. The matter only became hot button when the reform ship began to coast to the final, home stretch – the sale of the entities. This is where the stakes are at utmost and the government ought to have known better by ensuring that the chief midwife, like Caesar’s wife, stays above board!

Blind Trust or not, the ex-minister’s interest in Geometric Power is certainly not hidden. This was after all where he was yanked off to become Special Adviser to the President and later Minister of Power. I personally thought that the ex-minister’s job was just about done at the point of the production of the milestone Power Sector Roadmap in August 2010. Solely on account of his interests in the sector, and given the potential landmines in the path of the privatisation process and the powerful interests at play, I believe that he ought to have been excused before the privatisation process kicked off at least to confer credibility on the exercise. That the minister and his boss, President Jonathan waited for things to get out of hand is no doubt revealing of the administration’s sloppiness.

I must say however that Nnaji’s exit merely confirms that the gnome behind the power sector’s woes is alive and well. Today, the fear that the modest success would be imperilled by the changes is back. As one would imagine, the wild celebration by the electrical sector unions in the aftermath of the minister’s exit would merely represent the more comical dimension of the forces ranged against the reforms. But theirs is nothing compared to the dark forces that are far more powerful and sinister. These forces have the money, the muscle and the connection at the highest levels of government to guarantee that no initiatives work!
That is to say that the fear of the sector’s relapse is not entirely unfounded. After all, the mere existence of the Electric Power Sector Reform Act 2005 – a legislation whose coming marked the turning point for the industry – could not guarantee that the reforms would move from the pages of the papers on which the law was written. Indeed, the late President Umaru Yar’Adua not only dithered in implementation – a clear violation of the Act – for nearly two years, he acted as if the law did not exist. Even his pledge to declare emergency in the power sector remained until his death – a wish.

The lesson here is that it is one thing to have a fanciful piece of legislation; it is another to commit to its implementation.
President Jonathan is no doubt entitled to his achievement which is modest by all standards given the resources that his administration has thrown into the sector. Of course, cash was never a problem. The administration after all began by warehousing $5 billion for the National Integrated Power Projects. That was after it secured the agreement of governors and their state assemblies to draw from the excess crude account. In spite of this, performance could hardly be said to have matched expectations. Note for instance the rather curious and confounding arithmetic of the power generation in which a country that did not start from Ground Zero currently celebrates 4000 MW as achievement. How about this for the record – that we blew nearly $20 million on the sector in the last decade alone to achieve an incremental 1,500 MW additional output! How does one explain the power sector’s arithmetic of reducing balances?

The question is apt, considered in the background of the administration’s projections in the celebrated roadmap. By the projection, the sector ought to have delivered 7033MW by April 2011. By December this year, the generation capacity is supposed to hit 11,879 MW. Now, we are told by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission that the best the nation could hope for in 2012 – barely three months away – is 5,000MW! Meanwhile, the administration is in frenzy over achievements!

Having said that, I personally believe that current fears about the reforms slipping into relapse mode are somewhat exaggerated. Clearly, much work has gone into grounding the institutional framework. There are also undeniable signs that progress is finally being made in the completion of the NIPP plants. Much also has been done to harmonise gas policies to ensure delivery of gas to the plants. However, it seems to me that the sustained interest of the ordinary Nigerian in the sector is what will make the possibility of a slip into the dark days very difficult. To be sure, the nation didn’t get to this point because those in charge suddenly became more committed. It did because Nigerians have gone beyond asking hard questions to demanding explanations on why in spite of the trillions of naira sunk, the government cannot deliver. One can only hope that President Jonathan and his Peoples Democratic Party read the signs of the times correctly.

It is of course a long way ahead. The word however is vigilance – eternal vigilance. The next battle is the sale of the unbundled entities of the Power Holdings Company of Nigeria – perhaps the most critical in the entire process. Just as Nigerians cannot wait to see this phase happen, it must be seen as the beginning of the long, difficult road to improved service delivery – a step towards the so-called Eldorado of liberalised power sector.

September 11, 2012