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Category: Wednesday

  • Retreat on improving polytechnic education

    Retreat on improving polytechnic education

    It was acknowledged at the outset that polytechnic education had been in recession for decades due partly to low investment in the sector and partly to emphasis on university education. That’s why chairpersons of polytechnics, rectors, registrars, bursars, and state commissioners of education throughout the country attended a retreat on ways to improve polytechnic education. For 6 hours a day over two days (January 21-22, 2026), in the tech-resourced TETFund Auditorium, eight papers were presented and discussed, four per day, each for a full hour. The following summary is infused with my own reflections on the presentations and discussions.

    In his opening address, the Minister of Education, Dr. Tunji Alausa, drew attention to the renewed goals of polytechnic education under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the need to align polytechnic education with the national manpower needs and development goals: “Innovation must be the heartbeat of our polytechnics; therefore, I urge you to foster entrepreneurship centres, research hubs, and industry partnerships that turn ideas into prototypes, inventions into enterprises, which will graduate students into job creators. Polytechnics should lead in areas like renewable energy, agriculture technology, digital manufacturing, and climate-resilient solutions directly contributing to Nigeria’s sustainable development goals.”

    Seven major issues:

    •Leadership and governance

    Typical governance problems in polytechnics were discussed and various approaches to solving them were highlighted. The problems range from funding shortages and poor infrastructure through inadequate lab and teaching facilities to undue external interference in internal affairs. The problems notwithstanding, effective governance and leadership accountability are necessary for sustaining the mission of the polytechnic.

    2 Social cohesion

    Emphasis was placed on (a) the need to foster collaboration and good relationships among governing council, management, and unions; (b) the need to foster effective relationships among management, staff, and students; and (c) the need to maintain harmonious relationships among institutional management, staff, students, and the host community, realising that a good number of staff and students reside within the host community.

    3 Financial management

    Financial prudence is critical to achieving the mission of the polytechnic, more so in the face of funding shortages. One area in which fiscal management could be optimised is procurement. There was an exhaustive presentation on procurement procedures, based on compliance with the Procurement Act. I strongly recommend this presentation to all procurement officers and members of the Tenders Board throughout the federation. Equally important is the presentation by an ICPC official on how to identify pitfalls in financial operations and how to avoid corrupt practices in fund utilization.

    It must be noted, however, that the procurement procedures are too cumbersome for efficiency. No wonder specially trained officers are required to be in charge. Yet the complicated procedures involved often leave gaps for oversight managers to exploit. There are over ten such groups from various ministries and both Houses of the National Assembly looking into various aspects of polytechnic management. In addition to visiting the campuses, oversight managers often invite one or more members of the polytechnic management to Abuja to explain or defend this or that. But even where there are no clear complaints, these managers often have to be settled. The expenses incurred by the polytechnics on accommodation, transport, and settlement fees amount to a drain on the inadequate resources of the polytechnics with little or no impact on quality assurance.

    • ICT and digital transformation

    In keeping with presidential directive on ICT compliance, polytechnics should adopt digitization across the institution to enhance efficiency in governance, teaching, learning, and research. The presentation and discussion of this topic highlighted the need for polytechnics to prepare candidates for the fourth industrial revolution, spurred by the Internet, digitsation, and the adoption of AI tools for enhanced efficiency.

    • Quality assurance

    Quality assurance enhances efficiency, reduces costs, and boosts stakeholders’ confidence. It is necessary to ensure standards in governance, teaching, fiscal management, and ethical practices. Quality assurance in polytechnics is diffuse, if there is any at all. The so-called oversight managers appear to be after collection rather than correction and after quantity rather than quality. It is unclear how the planned establishment of a Polytechnic Commission (after National Universities Commission) will provide desired quality assurance, which the NBTE appears unable to provide.

    •Human capital development and staff welfare

    The renewed focus on polytechnic education requires the upgrade of the lecturers’ skills, slaries, and allowances as well as clear owed allowances. In was, therefore, good news that the federal government was negotiating with polytechnic unions for salary upgrade and unpaid allowances. TETFund has been helpful to the polytechnics for faculty and staff training. However, polytechnic lecturers have not been tapping enough into available funds for research.

    •Polytechnic-industry linkage

    It is important to establish and strengthen linkages with local industries to establish or enhance internships, practical training, and apprenticeships. Where there are no industries in the area, construction companies, reputable roadside mechanics, welders, plumbers, electricians, and other artisans at work can provide practical training for students.

    Major challenges

    • Irregular and grossly inadequate funding for capital projects and recurrent expenses. Moreover, statutory intervention funds are delayed or not disbursed at all. The rigmarole before approved funds could be accessed often causes unnecessary delay. This has ripple effects across the institution, including dampened morale, lowered quality, and, sometimes, loss of funds.

    •Poor and inadequate infrastructure and deficiencies in workshop and laboratory facilities. The minister announced a special TETFund intervention fund for upgrading engineering schools with modern, industry-standard equipment. But what about the other programmes?

    •Teaching and technical staff shortages and limited opportunities for staff development and career progression.

    • Outdated currcula that are out of alignment with needed industry skills and current technologies need urgent upgrade.

    • Despite policy emphasis on ICT compliance, ICT infrastructure is limited or lacking. As a result, there is limited digital teaching capacity and low e-learning readiness. TETFund is one of a few institutions in Africa to have invested heavily in Blackboard, an online learning tool, but it has hardly translated to use beyond Abuja.

    • There are serious security concerns and safety issues on many polytechnics, especially newer ones without perimeter fencing. This requires urgent intervention in view of rampant security breaches in educational institutions.

    • There are serious constraints on institutional autonomy worsened by delayed release of statutory approvals and external interference in management processes. The menace of numerous “oversight managers” from various ministries and the National Assembly is particularly aggravating to the polytechnic management. Unfortunately, polytechnic Governing Councils have been rendered too ceremonial to be of help to the management.

    Key recommendations

    Federal and state governments should increase funding for polytechnic education and ensure regularity in the release of statutory allocations and intervention funds.

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    Federal and state governments should also take measures to enhance the autonomy of polytechnic institutions to encourage effective compliance with their mission.

    Polytechnics should be encouraged to collaborate with security agencies and community stakeholders to develop campus security protocols and emergency response plans.

    New curricula are long overdue to align polytechnic education with national development goals and industry needs.

    Finally, Governing Councils should cease to be a ceremonial haven for political jobbers. Rather, they should be empowered to hire, promote, and discipline management and staff, maintain quality, and raise necessary funds to carry out the polytechnic’s mission.

    Conclusion

    The zeal with which the present Minister of Education is implementing the administration’s Renewed Hope agenda on education is commendable. But a level playing field is assumed for all universities and polytechnics, which makes it difficult to achieve excellence. It is necessary to identify selected universities and polytechnics and develop high performing ones into Centres of Excellence through special funding for which development goals would be set with measurable kpis. Turkey has joined China and India in doing so.

    Today, Turkey has at least 23 institutions in the top 500 in Europe. In the forefront is Turkey’s Middle East Technical University (METU) which “secured its position as the national leader by scoring highest in academic reputation, employer reputation, and international research network indicators.” Excellence does not result from wishful thinking or funding alone, but from careful planning and achieving set targets.

  • Godfathers, godsons and Kano politics

    Godfathers, godsons and Kano politics

    With all the drama he could muster, an embittered Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso recently declared January 23, 2026, the day his erstwhile protégé, Kano State Governor, Abba Yusuf, did the unthinkable by resigning from the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) to join the All Progressives Congress (APC), ‘World Day of Betrayal!’

    Not many could have predicted that such a day would come given the close ties between the two men. Yusuf started out as the one-time Kano governor’s Personal Assistant. Kwankwaso would go on to appoint him Commissioner of the important Ministry of Works.

    Such was the bond of loyalty between them that back in 2014, Yusuf who was then an APC member gladly relinquished his senatorial ticket for his mentor to go to the National Assembly and remain politically relevant. A man who was capable of such selflessness now suddenly finds himself being profiled as treacherous.

    But the connections weren’t just official or political, they were also familial. Like many, I had in the past recycled the incorrect information about Yusuf being married to Kwankwaso’s daughter. This isn’t true. The incumbent governor has two wives and one of them is from his erstwhile godfather’s extended family – but is not his biological daughter.

    Perhaps what makes the parting so galling for some is Yusuf’s choice of new friends – many of them his former boss’ associates now turned bitter foes. He spent much of the last two years in a vicious war of words with his predecessor, Abdullahi Ganduje. In fact, one of his first acts in office as governor was the demolition of structures and monuments worth billions of naira built by the former administration.

    On Monday, the fellow he so bitterly reviled was the one raising his hands in endorsement before a cheering throng at the Kano Government House when Yusuf formally registered as APC member. Such is politics; no permanent friend or foe, only permanent interests.

    Over the last two years, close associates of the governor had been nudging him to break free from the suffocating control of his long time boss and ‘be his own man.’ He definitely reached the point where he found such calls irresistible.

    Despite the best efforts to portray the fracture in the Kwankwasiyya family as the ultimate betrayal, such splits are not unheard of in Kano politics. This is a state where power is rarely transferred without a fight. From the First Republic till date, politics here has been shaped by recurring battles between godfathers and godsons they helped to office.

    Time and again, powerful patrons have anointed successors, only to turn into their bitterest enemies once those successors acquired power, autonomy, and their own following.

    Yusuf broke with Kwankwaso but before him Ganduje also went down the same path as he tried to prise himself from the controlling grip of his former boss. Kwankwaso having handed power to Ganduje in 2015, was confident that loyalty would endure. Instead, his successor asserted independence with ruthless efficiency. What followed was an all-out political war that polarised Kano and split families, communities, and institutions.

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    By the time the dust settled, Ganduje had not only defeated his godfather politically but had also redefined the state’s power structure. Yet the irony is unmistakable: he soon began to play the godfather role, exerting influence over party structures and political appointments, only to face resistance from emerging forces and shifting alliances.

    This pattern is neither accidental nor new. It is rooted in Kano’s long tradition of mass politics, its highly mobilised electorate, and influence of its larger-than-life personalities who see power not merely as public trust but as personal property.

    The story started in the First Republic with the rivalry between Mallam Aminu Kano and his former allies. He was not a godfather in the crude, transactional sense common today, but an ideological mobiliser who built a mass movement around the talakawa. Yet even then, Kano politics showed early signs of what would later become a defining feature: intense internal schisms that sooner than later ripped apart any pretence to loyalty.

    By the Second Republic, the godfather–godson template had become clearer. Then Governor Abubakar Rimi split from Aminu Kano in 1981 due to ideological, generational, and strategy disagreements within the People’s Redemption Party (PRP). The younger, more eloquent and charismatic man, leading the radical “Santsi” faction, clashed with Kano’s “Tabo” wing over his technocratic cabinet.

    Rimi’s attempt to diminish the influence of Emir of Kano, Ado Bayero, by creating four new emirates in 1981, caused a severe rift with Kano, who felt the actions were disrespectful to tradition.

    That radical step mirrored what Ganduje did in the twilight of his governorship when he tried to cut Emir Sanusi Lamido Sanusi to size by creating four new emirates.

    Kwankwaso, himself, emerged as governor under the banner of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), helped by an alliance of heavyweights in the state. Once in office, he moved swiftly to dismantle the influence of those who helped him rise. What followed was a bruising intra-elite war that reshaped Kano politics for years.

    He would later become the textbook godfather he once rebelled against under his Kwankwasiyya movement. But like most godfather projects, it eventually ran into the same familiar problem: succession.

    What makes Kano different from many other states is not the existence of godfathers – they exist everywhere in Nigeria – but the consistency and intensity of godson rebellion. In this state, godsons rarely remain subordinate for long. Once they taste power and build grassroots legitimacy, they push back.

    Kano’s voters, unlike those in many other states, have repeatedly shown a willingness to punish perceived political arrogance – whether from godfathers or godsons. When Rimi’s differences with Aminu Kano became irreconcilable, he resigned as governor and defected to the then Nigerian People’s Party (NPP) to contest the 1983 election. He was handily beaten by the PRP candidate, Alhaji Sabo Barkin Zuwo.

    With the politics of the state in such a flux at the moment, it’s hard to say who the voters will back following the intriguing realignment of forces that has taken place. What is evident is that Yusuf has gutted his erstwhile NNPP home, taking with him a huge chunk of the structure from top to bottom.

    What is being created is potentially quite formidable given that he’s joining forces with a largely united APC machine that had strengthen itself over the last one year with defectors from across the political spectrum in the state.

    For his part, Kwankwaso faces a painful rebuilding process with many of his most influential and resourceful foot soldiers now in the rival camp. His options are painfully limited given that he would be going to any table of negotiations with a very weak hand.

    He cannot really turn to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) which is looking more and more by the day like the Atiku Democratic Congress. Even the much speculated link up with Peter Obi in an as-yet-to-be identified platform looks more like a fairy tale that may never become reality.

    In 2023, with his machine intact and motivated, Kwankwaso and his NNPP pulled a massive 953,179 votes at the presidential election. Then candidate Bola Tinubu and APC came second with 513,846; Atiku Abubakar and PDP managed 118,445 votes, while Obi’s Labour Party only garnered a measly 30,089 votes.

    It’s hard to see how with barely 12 months to the next general elections, the wounded former governor is able muster anywhere near one million votes in Kano either for himself or for any other ticket he may decide to support. What is clear is that the 2027 election in the state, driven by either voter anger or indifference, may well produce a lopsided outcome in favour of one side as fallout of recent developments. 

  • 2027 Presidency: Early scenarios (2)

    2027 Presidency: Early scenarios (2)

    I don’t know when the whispers started that President Bola Tinubu was contemplating dropping Kashim Shettima as his running mate for the second term. As far as relationships between Numbers One and Two go in Nigeria, theirs has been relatively drama free. So, what could prompt the president to dump a man who had kept his nose scrupulously clean?

    It was a measure of the seriousness with which some were taking the tales that a rally held by the Northeast Zone All Progressives Congress (APC) sometime last year dissolved into chaos after a motion to endorse to Tinubu for a second term was moved without a mention of Shettima. 

    An explanation that the party was primarily concerned with the top of the ticket and that the choice of running mate was the prerogative of APC’s flag bearer, left many cold.

    At some point the president must have picked up on the controversy rumbling ominously in the background within his party and in the larger polity. That perhaps explains the fulsome praise he showered on his deputy on the occasion of his birthday last September.

    Among other things, he said: “I deeply appreciate your vibrancy, loyalty, partnership, and support as my deputy. In choosing you then as a partner, I selected competence and other qualities that Nigeria could depend on.”

    “Every day, as Vice President, you have justified that choice by strengthening our work, bringing fresh perspectives, and upholding our commitment to Nigerians. Your dedication reassures me that I did not make a mistake in choosing you as my deputy.”

    In that one message he felicitated a close associate on his special day and also sent a clear political message to those who thought Shettima’s position was threatened. Clearly, not everyone got the message because in the last few weeks a number of reports in the mainstream media have sought to revive what was thought to be a dead horse.

    One of those suggested that some unnamed ‘forces’ in the United States were pushing for a return to religious balancing in the ruling party’s ticket that would see a Northern Christian being picked to replace Shettima as running mate. Among those touted to be in consideration are the Catholic Bishop of Sokoto Diocese, Rev. Mathew Kukah, former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara and Minister of Defence, Christopher Musa.

    That was one end of the tales by moonlight. At the other extreme were speculations that rather than return to religious balancing, the president was minded to retain the same Muslim-Muslim formula, but effect a change in personalities with one-time Defence Minister and former Kano State Governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, said to be preferred.

    This ruthless step would be justified by the fact that, supposedly, Kwankwaso brings to the table political heft that would guarantee Tinubu’s victory in the electorally pivotal Kano. The unconvinced argue that without the former governor’s support, APC didn’t do too badly in the state in 2023.

    Matters haven’t been helped by Kwankwaso’s blunt declaration that he wasn’t averse to abandoning his Nigerian National Peoples Party (NNPP) and joining any of its larger rivals, provided he was made presidential candidate or running mate. So, there was room for give and take where there was sufficient desperation.

    To the first scenario which suggests that Tinubu at this point in his political journey has a desperate need to appease advocates of faith balancing, let it be said that in our overheated political environment, speculation often acquires a life of its own. But subjected to cold logic, the idea that he would, or should jettison, Shettima collapses under its own weight.

    For one thing, the influential pressure groups like the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), Pentecostal Fellowship of Nigeria (PFN) and notable clerics that made religion front and centre of the 2023 haven’t been agitating for a return to the status quo. Instead, they have largely been mollified by what they’ve seen of Tinubu in government. Some of his most powerful appointees are Christians as are the heads of key arms of the military and security establishment.

    More importantly, the president made a strategic choice three years ago to pair with someone from the majority faith up North, himself being from the minority religion down South. There’s no evidence that his thinking has changed in any way to warrant shackling himself to an array of political paperweights just to please the gods of correctness.

    More importantly, Northern Christian voters do not constitute a single, transferable bloc waiting to be activated by name recognition. Their voting behaviour is fragmented – shaped by ethnicity, local dynamics, party structures, and performance, not merely by faith affinity. Nigeria’s electoral history offers little evidence that elevating a Northern Christian to the vice-presidency automatically unlocks a decisive reservoir of votes.

    Running mates are not ornamental. They are strategic calculations and products of electoral arithmetic. Tinubu’s choice of Shettima in 2023 was not accidental or sentimental. It was a carefully calibrated decision rooted in the realities of power, geography, party cohesion, and electoral survival. Those realities have not vanished. If anything, they have hardened.

    Start with the Northeast. It is often lazily dismissed as electorally marginal compared to the Northwest, but that is a misreading of Nigerian politics. In any election the Northeast can be decisive. Shettima brought not just votes in 2023, but legitimacy. He faced a herculean task given that the Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) candidate, Atiku Abubakar, also hailed from the same zone.

    As a former governor, senator, and political actor with deep roots across the region’s elite networks, he gave Tinubu’s ticket credibility acceptability and the electorate an attractive alternative to whatever Atiku had to sell.

    Dropping Shettima would send a profoundly unsettling signal to the Northeast: that its loyalty is expendable. In a country where political grievances are easily stored and endlessly recycled, that would be an act of recklessness. Tinubu who’s a strategic politician understands this instinctively.

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    Then there is the internal arithmetic of APC. The party is already a broad and often uneasy coalition, held together less by ideology than by power-sharing expectations. Removing a sitting vice-president without an overwhelming, existential justification would reopen old wounds and manufacture new enemies.

    The Northeast bloc within APC – governors past and present, legislators, financiers, and party organisers – would not quietly accept such a demotion. The backlash might not always be loud, but it would be effective: withdrawn enthusiasm, fractured mobilisation, and selective indifference on Election Day. No incumbent president seeking re-election courts that kind of avoidable instability.

    Let’s not forget that for all the success of the incumbent in the Northwest in 2023, in the many places he placed second to Atiku who unashamedly ran a campaign that appealed to ethnic and regional sentiments.

    Beyond electoral calculus lies Tinubu’s governing temperament. He does not reward noise but loyalty and utility. By all available evidence, Shettima has been a disciplined and dependable deputy – visible when required, restrained when silence was wiser. Those who mistake this restraint for weakness fundamentally misunderstand the president’s political DNA. From Lagos to Abuja, he has consistently preferred deputies who stabilise power rather than compete for it.

    There is also a stubborn truth Nigerian politics sometimes pretends does not matter: loyalty still counts at the very top. Tinubu is not known for casually discarding allies, especially those who stood with him through difficult moments. Shettima did not merely share a ticket; he defended unpopular choices, absorbed blows, and helped steady the campaign during one of the most polarising elections in Nigeria’s recent history. That kind of political capital is not easily replaced – and certainly not for cosmetic balance.

    Speculation will persist till voting day in 2027. But stripped of sentiment and examined through realistic lens, much of the permutations would be exposed for what they are – idle scenario building. Dropping Shettima may excite commentators and satisfy theoretical arguments, but in the real world it makes no political sense at all.

  • Renewing hope in higher education

    Renewing hope in higher education

    The President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration has done it again! For hire education. First, it was the student loan for students who have secured admission into Nigerian public universities, polytechnics, colleges of education, or vocational schools. The loan pays full tuition directly to the student’s institution plus a monthly stipend of N20,000 paid directly into the student’s bank account.

    This was followed by huge investment in skills acquisition in Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET). The investment involves the allocation of N120 billion to launch major programmes to provide technical and practical industry-related skills training. Trainees will receive free tuition, monthly stipends, and starter packs and take-off grants upon completion of training. Over one million youths will be trained across 1600 centres in various trades, including electrical installation, welding, and digitals skills. The goal is to improve on the digital ecosystem, move Nigeria from a resource-based to a knowledge-based economy, and reduce foreign dependency on skilled technicians, a lesson the United States is learning so late.

    The most recent stride is resolving government’s 16-year on-and-off crisis with the Academic Staff Union of Universities, As recently as last week, the Tinubu administration reached a monumental, comprehensive, agreement with ASUU on a host of issues that have led the Union to go on strike for as many as 1,200 days in the last 16 years.

    The new agreement covers salaries; allowances; retirement and pension; maternity and paternity leave; welfare benefits; a national research council bill to provide for research funding; and a review of laws that impede university autonomy and academic freedom. The agreement is topped with a N30 billion restoration and stabilisation fund to be paid in three equal installments over the next three years.

    Public discussion of the agreement has focused on the 40 percent across the board pay raise and a new, research allowance of N840,000 for Associate Professors (Readers) and N1.74 million for full Professors. Given the cost of research, N1.74 million is hardly sufficient to cover a search for relevant literature to write a proposal, let alone undergo a 9-month or longer research project. Nevertheless, this research allowance must be viewed along with the proposed bill to provide research funding to be made available to all cadres of faculty on successful peer-reviewed proposals.

    Much less discussion is the government’s willingness to review laws that impede university autonomy and academic freedom. These include the Acts establishing government bodies, which regulate one aspect or the other of university traditional practices. They include JAMB, NUC, and TETFund. There is no doubt that President Tinubu believes in university autonomy and wants to remove the clogs in its wheel. He started with the removal of universities from the Integrated Payroll and Personnel Information System (IPPIS) so that each institution could manage the payment of staff salaries.

    The real problem is not with government’s agreement wit ASUU but with the initial conflation of ASUU with higher education. The truth is that ASUU represents the universities, both federal and state, although it remains unclear whether state universities and sponsoring state governments were fully represented at the negotiation table. It is also unclear how and when the administrative staff of universities will be accommodated.

    There also are other tiers of higher education that ASUU does not represent. These are the unions representing Polytechnics, Colleges of Education, and Vocational institutions. I pushed hard on the Committee of Chairpersons of Polytechnics and the Ministry of Education before I got the clarification that the Federal Government has plans to negotiate with these other unions. The negotiations had better come fast and be made comparable to the agreement reached with ASUU to avoid ASUU-like strikes from the unions of other higher institutions.

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    A related issue that came to mind when I reviewed the 35-page agreement with ASUU is the place of teachers in primary and secondary schools, which feed the universities and other tiers of higher education. It is important for the Federal Government to reach out to State Governors to take a close look at the state of primary and secondary schools in their states and take steps to review the salaries and conditions of service of their teachers.

    There are also questions as to whether the substantial increase in professors’ retirement benefits could be accommodated in a pension scheme that has underserved pensioners for a long time. The Director General of the Nigeria Pensions Commission, Omolola Oloworaran, insisted that the scheme has enough funds to meet pension obligations but agreed that sustainability has always been a problem. She singled out President Tinubu by adding: “For the first time in almost two decades, the government has cleared long-standing pension liabilities, including pension differentials.” Nevertheless, questions remain about sustainability beyond the present administration. That’s why it is very important for a legal framework and firm implementation strategies be established that will be difficult for incoming administrations to set aside

    There is no doubt that the current Minister of Education, Dr. Maruf Tunji Alausa, appears to be in a hurry with the implementation of President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda on education. And he has accomplished a lot within 15 months or so. He should, however, take his time to ensure a comprehensive approach that takes into account historical precedents, current pedagogical practices, stakeholders’ views, and a futuristic outlook.

    Finally, the Ministry of Education should henceforth take proactive measures and not wait for crisis to brew or criticisms to mount before taking action. Reactive policies tend to be made under pressure and in a hurry, short-circuiting comprehensive and long-term solutions.

  • 2027 Presidency: Early scenarios (1)

    2027 Presidency: Early scenarios (1)

    Over the last one year Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has been waging a losing battle against early politicking for an election that was then two years away. With the polls now just over 12 months away, activities are building up to a frenzy, despite official campaigning not being scheduled to start until November.

    The umpire may not have given its thumbs up for the contest to be joined still it’s not too early to outline scenarios that may define the polls. Nigerian elections are rarely decided in the final stretch; rather they are shaped years in advance by hard bargaining, economic pressures, and slow alignment of political interests. By that token, the 2027 contest is already taking form.

    At the centre of all plausible scenarios stands President Bola Tinubu. Barring any dramatic development, he will be the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate. Incumbents hardly ever step aside. Even a doddering President Joe Biden, who at some point didn’t know if he was coming or going, insisted on running until a calamitous debate performance forced his Democratic Party to shoo him aside.

    Tinubu, perhaps the most consummate political strategist of his generation, will most certainly be on the ticket barring the unknown. The real question is not whether he will run, but the conditions under which he will seek a second term, and the quality of opposition he confronts.

    Some have framed the 2027 presidential election as a rematch as it throws up the same personalities who faced-off in the bitter 2023 contest: Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi. While the contestants may be the same, the circumstances couldn’t be any more different.

    Three years ago, the incumbent was an outsider aspirant whom power brokers in the ruling APC were less than enthusiastic about. Such was the resistance that on the eve of the primary, then party chairman, Adamu Abdullahi, attempted to sell the dummy that President Muhammadu Buhari had anointed Senate President, Ahmed Lawan, as flag bearer. It would take rear-guard action by Northern governors to frustrate the scheme.

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    Today, the unwanted stone sits as head of state with all the advantages of incumbency. Back then Atiku ran as candidate of a divided Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) five of whose governors, rallying behind Nyesom Wike, decided to work for Tinubu’s victory. In the run-up to 2027, the former Vice President has dumped his former platform, choosing to make his bed in the African Democratic Congress (ADC) whose very structures are still in the making.

    Sensing that the PDP’s ticket was being kept warm for Atiku, Obi fled early to the Labour Party (LP) where he transformed into a cult hero of sorts. Despite a modest record as governor of Anambra State from 2006 to 2014, he was suddenly transformed into this would-be saviour who had an answer to all of Nigeria’s problems.

    A frustrated urban youth demographic bought massively into the hype. The candidate was then gifted the Muslim-Muslim ticket controversy by APC. This product of Tinubu’s cold calculation that having a Southern religious minority pair up with an individual from the Northern religious minority was a recipe for electoral disaster, almost backfired.

    Obi played it for all it was worth – campaigning in churches, having photo-ops with popular clerics and encouraging Christians down South to ‘take back their country.’ It worked a treat, generating a surge from the angry youth to those who believed that the APC ticket was a vehicle for the imminent Islamisation of the country.

    Not even Tinubu’s repeated pleas that he hadn’t even been able to successfully Islamise his home – his wife is a pastor and some of children Christian – made any difference. The upshot was unprecedented electoral breakthroughs for Obi in the North-Central zone and in wide swathes of the South. In his native Southeast, ethnic and religious solidarity produced landslides across five states. 

    In the last three years, so much has changed and many things sold to the gullible as gospel truth have been exposed as crude lies manufactured by fake news merchants. Back in 2023, social media was awash with videos that presented Tinubu as infirm. But after he won and was sworn in, the sickly old man attack line vanished. Today, one of the most recycled attack lines of his critics is that he travels too much.

    Fake news is alive and well and would be deployed in the coming elections by dark forces. But they would be confronted by a populace that has been bitten once, and now scrutinise ‘breaking news’ more suspiciously.

    Over the last three years Nigerians have been led by two individuals from the same faith. The Islamisation bugbear used to deceive many voters, turning many churches into campaign arenas, has not materialised. As a factor in the coming polls, this is deader than the dodo.

    Many have pointed out that three years ago, Tinubu as an outside political force was able to defeat APC apparatchik and powerful office holders who didn’t want him as flag bearer. Today, he wields all the powers of the presidency and can embark on incumbency consolidation.

    All over the world it is acknowledged that incumbency is a powerful advantage in electoral contests. In Nigeria, incumbents often win because alternatives fail to cohere and the system rewards continuity over disruption. It is not to say that office holders don’t lose, but they are more likely to win. Three years ago, of 11 governors who sought re-election, nine returned to office.

    After the 2023 poll, APC had 21 governors. A steady stream of defectors has now seen that number reach 30 heading to the next election. Some opposition figures have tried to encourage their supporters with lame comments about the next election not being about defectors “but about Nigerians and the ruling party.”

    Others have declared dismissively that governors have only one vote.  But even those who make such comments know that incumbency isn’t about the individual’s single vote but about the influence and resources his position attracts.

    To understand politicians and their mind games, notice how those who sneered at the defection of governors, have been quick to celebrate when a handful of federal lawmakers joined their camp recently.

    The ruling party’s incumbency advantage becomes more formidable with the opposition behaving like a collection of rival camps rather than a serious governing alternative.

    Despite agreeing that the only hope they have against the APC machine is unity of purpose, that hoped-for oneness remains a fantasy. Every election cycle, they convince themselves that moral outrage, demographic weight, or social media momentum will overcome structural realities. Obi even once famously dismissed such arrangements as “structures of criminality.”

    But to pursue his ambitions he’s today part of a coalition against Tinubu, involving PDP refugees, remnants of LP, and defectors from APC and elsewhere. What was once sold as an all-conquering opposition platform that would reprise what APC did in 2015 is increasingly looking shaky as the battle for party’s ticket shapes up. What happens if OBI fails to get the ADC ticket? Would he jump ship, again? Would he take the next best thing and run as the under card? The nation is watching to see if this time common interest trumps individual ambition. Nigerian opposition leaders are often united only by their opposition to power, not by trust in one another.

    The youth vote which was a disruptive force three years ago, faces a reality check this time. This segment of our population is vast, vocal, and frustrated – but it is also fragmented, fatigued, and structurally disadvantaged. This isn’t a monolithic bloc that works with common purpose. Rather, they are just as divided as other demographics by faith, sentiment, geography and ethnicity.

    Their enthusiasm in 2023 quickly collided with the hard walls of party machinery, voter turnout dynamics, and state power. By 2027, youth voters are more likely to be selectively courted than organically mobilised. Without firm links to governors, party structures, and local power brokers, youth energy will remain morally resonant but electorally limited.

    Ultimately, 2027 may not be a contest driven by ideological choice. It may not even be an assessment of the administration’s performance in terms of success of policies or infrastructure built. It may be shaped instead by misinformation, voter fatigue, ethnicity and elite consensus on matters like zoning. It could also come down to personalities and likeability.

    The race is not yet fully formed. But its contours are already visible. And unless something fundamental changes, Nigerians may once again be asked not who can reinvent the country – but who can manage its contradictions for another four years.

  • Valedictory article; Be Faithful, Loyal and Honest @2026

    Valedictory article; Be Faithful, Loyal and Honest @2026

    HNY2026. Perhaps a ‘taste of their own medicine’ delivered by Trump’s USA to Nigeria’s terrorists/ bandits and extremists among Fulani herders, allowed Nigerians a nearly peaceful Happy New Year Celebrations2026. But terrorists have struck twice again killing 50+ Fellow Nigerians.

    The intervention freed ‘violently silenced fearful millions’ to loudly call for a final solution. We see a ‘coalition of willing governors’, using late Governor Rotimi Akeredolu’s mantra, strengthening Amotekun and other security structures. This could eventually trigger the five million encamped and roaming IDPs, Internally Displaced Persons, to return home.

    Nigeria must escalate to war footing today. Politicians, government and officials must tighten their belts, curtail their flamboyant lifestyles, lead by example, take security seriously in favour of exemplary probity and transparency.

    Instead of the ludicrous announced higher approved campaign costs, Nigeria’s political class should make governance, campaigning and elections cheaper with fewer election business day closures. Such politics-related expenses are recouped by politicians’ bleeding the citizenry by taxes, padded budgets and phantom contracts and constituency projects. This must stop.

    Nigeria must work towards one National Assembly, NASS house. Also, NASS politicians are representatives of and should be loyal to and fully paid and supported by their states, not the federal government.  

    The ‘Detty December’ sadly brought the tragic death of Sina Ghami and Kevin Latif Ayodele. No doubt a bereaved Anthony Joshua (AJ) will inevitably set up befitting memorial foundations. AJ will recover. He always reminds me of me being taught boxing at Abalti Barracks Yaba in 1960s by now forgotten Hogan Kid Bassey MBE, MON, former World Featherweight Champion. 

    Just last month, a patient reported he was the sole survivor among 19 passengers even after repeatedly begging the driver to slow down. No world press. We recall the 70s and Prof Wole Soyinka’s Oyo State Road Safety 1977, the FRSC 1988 under Babangida Educare Trust, in the 90’s educated on speeding, safety/seat belts, crash helmets and lifejackets. More preventable drownings, 25, in a Yobe boat accident. Safety is a life-long unending thankless journey.

    Read Also: Akwashiki’s death a devastating loss to Nigeria – Adebayo

    The Crans-Montana bar fire warns Nigerian event planners who use netting drapes close to sparklers. Take precautions, fire extinguishers and announce exits like in aeroplanes. Most Nigerian halls have hidden chained exit doors. I check. You check.

    It is now 50years since my first ‘Letter to the Editor’ written in 1975/6, as an NYSC second set doctor, after housemanship in Lagos State. It was published in the New Nigerian newspaper in annoyed response to its dismissive editorial claiming that ‘NYSC is a one year paid holiday’. At the time, I was exhausted from being six weeks first-on-call, in Lafia General Hospital, then Benue Plateau State. Sadly, we had begun to lose NYSC members to death. We, fellow NYSC members accompanied a deceased NYSC doctor friend home to Calabar – the unendurable price the family paid for educating a child. This was not the expected outcome as NYSC was a Gowon-inspired youth uniting nation-building post- civil war ‘national service’ bus stop, not journey’s end. Many, unremembered, have paid the supreme price sometimes at the hands of riots and terrorists like the young NYSC boy barely a man whose throat was cut while he was on the phone begging his parents for help while hiding in a market stall. ‘Yamutu’ was the last they heard.

    A country which ignores, covers-up its dead can have no future. Europe still celebrates even its losses as historic national pride while Africa, embarrassed, secretly buries even its heroes as if death is a disgrace. Africa changes history. My aunt living near Atan Cemetery Yaba, complained of the stench and the midnight military burials in shallow graves in the late 60s. 

    What Nigeria needs is not nuclear physics. We need a newspaper-reading political elite desperately interested in ‘Project Nigeria’. Nigeria needs to fight for a financial cushion, a ‘National Goal Focus’ on getting a ‘Gold & dollars’ equivalent of $200billion [$1b/1m population] in the CBN-led Foreign Exchange Reserve by buying Nigeria’s gold like oil. Look and learn from Ghana which nationalised gold reserves.

    Nigeria only ever needed citizens to be Faithful, Loyal and Honest (FLH) to kill corruption. Why so difficult? Nigeria has millions of FLH non-corrupt citizens. We need every single politician and civil servants to see death daily and be FLH. Corruption is not acceptable on the streets, in offices or in NASS.

    We must accept our population is 30% overestimated and probably 160m citizens rather than the colonially, fiscally, politically inflated figure, exemplified by a 20-30% voter turnout.

    There is exhilaration and vindication seeing your name in print for good, not a crime, and defending against a powerful newspaper. I then made numerous matters topical by writing Letters to the Editor in The Sketch, The Guardian, The Tribune sometimes, using the typing-posting or dropping-in-the-local-office-of-the-newspaper and, during draconic military regimes, sometimes under a pen name, e.g. Jimoh Ibrahim. This led me, through Mr Felix Adenaike and later Professor Jide Osuntokun, to join first, the Comet newspaper as an editorial board member and  columnist and then its successor, The Nation as a foundation columnist where, without being asked, I was eventually honoured with the permanent Wednesday back page ‘call-out’ or ‘pull quote’. I thank editors for editing but cannot apologise for my ‘too long’ titles which aimed to attract relevant leader readership to multifocal articles.

    My motivation has, like many, been to make-a-difference, to turn overlooked matters into problems and offer practical solutions in a country whose leadership seems very distracted from the great responsibility to undertake simple routine maintenance and growth of the great ‘Project Nigeria’. Having largely failed to get Nigeria to the place it could easily have surpassed with a less greedy political and robber baron financial class, I yield my position to Generation Next. Good luck. May you be read and acted upon. Amen.

    50 years ‘Not Out’ is time out. My family background, my medical journey, over 3000 Caesarean Sections and daily witnessing suffering and death of Fellow Nigerians, in and out of hospitals, witnessing three die last month and new life appear as well, and with my theatre boots repeatedly planted in the blood of my patients makes ignoring citizen needs impossible and criminal and makes corruption difficult to participate in or countenance.

    Words may not change Nigeria. Writing is not new. A host of dedicated Nigerian patriotic wordsmiths wrote, some till their ink dried up in their veins or their blood was spilt by disgruntled readers. Others still write.

    Only ‘Work’ will change Nigeria. But words also need hard work to join into motivational sentences and point the correct, not the corrupt, way. Each article and title construction can take 8-12hours. Of course, AI’s Google etc. have instantized spellchecks and research results making writing easier.  None of my articles have a word or line written by AI.

    We must all strive to be awarded the ‘Faithful, LoyaI & Honest’, FLH after our names at death.

    God has blessed Nigeria. People are stealing our blessing. Just stop stealing please so the blessing gets to the people.

    Please write on. Even if you sound repetitive, no audience, no action on your recommendations, remember it takes one article in the right place at the right time to change your world. It could be your article. Do not stop trying for 50 years. ‘Nigeria-can-&-must-be-better’.  Full stop.

  • Why 2026 is more consequential politically than 2027

    Why 2026 is more consequential politically than 2027

    Nigeria’s most popular seers and clerics have, somehow, missed out on some of the most dramatic developments we’ve seen in the polity for ages.

    Who would have predicted that Kano State Governor, Abba Yusuf, who seemed quite content with being resident in the pocket of his godfather, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, would do the unthinkable – ditch his New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC)?

    What’s unfolding in this Northern state is a big deal. To prevail in Nigeria’s presidential politics, winners must take at least two of, if not all three of the nation’s largest vote baskets – Lagos, Kano and Rivers States.

    It is not for nothing that President Bola Tinubu has cultivated a pre and post-election strategic alliance with current Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister, Nyesom Wike, who has demonstrated repeatedly that he holds Rivers firmly in his grasp.

    It is for those same reasons that the president assiduously courted his long-time political associate Kwankwaso for backing ahead of the 2027 battle. As it turned out the deal fell through because the one-time Kano governor asked for too much.

    In the heat of the Yusuf defection saga, Kwankwaso stated he was open to abandoning his NNPP for any other party that was willing to offer him the presidential or vice presidential tickets. Those conditions would have required Tinubu to drop his deputy, Kashim Shettima.

    This would have been a tricky political manoeuvre fraught with many risks. At best, Kwankwaso could deliver Kano, but it remains doubtful if it would be by the margins witnessed in 2015 when APC received 1,903,999 votes to PDP’s middling 215,779 votes.

    Whatever benefits the former Kano governor would have brought on board, it’s a move that would have damaged Tinubu in the Northeast as he would be perceived as having used and dumped a man who has been loyal to him beyond the call of the duty. There certainly was no need to start that fire.

    In any event, the APC in Kano has been chipping away progressively at the NNPP’s support base in the last three years. Over the last six months it was becoming evident that the party at the centre in Abuja stood a very good chance of winning the state.

    There’s no question that those dynamics, particularly as they concerned Governor Yusuf’s second term prospects, played a big role in pushing him to cross the carpet. Still, not too many would have dared predict he would leave his erstwhile benefactor who also happens to be his father-in-law in the lurch.

    In Rivers, the truce brokered between Wike and his successor, Siminalayi Fubara, quickly unravelled with the governor apparently unwilling to follow through on some of the components of the deal that resulted in the lifting of the state of emergency. Again, not too many expected this given his dovish utterances on returning to office in September.

    But words are one thing, actions a different story all together. It is significant that months after his return Fubara has not constituted a full cabinet. Strategic offices remain unoccupied while a supplementary budget that was supposed to be presented for House of Assembly scrutiny never saw the light day.

    All these were clear signs of disagreement behind the scenes that would be confirmed by the warlike utterances by House of Assembly Speaker, Martins Amaewhule, when asked to comment on claims by the governor about what he had done to reach out to the legislators. His assertion that Fubara ‘lied’ was evidence that the old conflict had been reignited.

    It’s not even one week into 2026 and the war of words between the Rivers camps has grabbed national attention once again. It promises to stay that way for much of the year whether Fubara gets the APC ticket or not.

    In Nigerian politics, elections are dramatic, but the year before them is decisive. That is when power is negotiated, alliances are reconfigured, and outcomes are quietly shaped long before voters are invited to confirm what has been settled behind the scenes.

    By that standard, 2026 is set to be one of the most turbulent and consequential years in Nigeria’s recent political history.

    Pre-election years follow a familiar script, but they are never routine. What makes this year especially intriguing is the state of the main opposition PDP. It is paralysed by legal challenges which look like they won’t be resolved in time for the party to play any significant role in next year’s polls.

    That’s partly the reason its most savvy governors quickly emptied into the ruling APC. Before matters came to a head, elements of the opposition had giddily suggested a coming together of all their forces in a coalition to unseat the incumbent. This would be a reminiscence of what then opposition accomplished when they fused together and ousted the Goodluck Jonathan administration.

    Unfortunately, the would-be coalitionists quickly discovered that they didn’t have a lock on the franchise. Rather than attract the hordes they expected from a government that was supposedly on the ropes, the opposite has happened. Today, the ruling party is on the cusp of numbering 30 governors within its ranks – just two shy of the 32 recorded by PDP at the height of its powers.

    This one-way traffic has raised the spectre of a one-party system. Opposition parties allege the incumbent is coercing their governors to join APC. Whether these new relationships are gunshot marriages or simply born out of convenience and interests remains to be seen.

    Available evidence doesn’t, however, support the coercion theory. More than anything, ambitious people who perceive that the legal troubles of their party could deny them a credible platform for re-election have simply opted for the next best thing.

    For the opposition, its moment of truth has come early. It is received wisdom that the best chance they have at any point in time is when they pool their resources. APC confirmed that in 2015. Atiku and company have been singing that same chorus to screeching point. Unfortunately, what was supposed to be an unstoppable coalition is fast turning into an uninspiring damp squib.

    The African Democratic Congress (ADC) rather being a coming together of different political structures like APC circa 2013/2014, is just one platform to which everyone with an axe to grind with Tinubu is gravitating. Unfortunately, many of the entrants aren’t bringing much to the table.

    Perhaps, more than his colleagues, Obi who joined last week arrived with a couple of senators and House of Representatives members. Significantly, the only Labour Party (LP) governor, Alex Ott of Abia State pointedly refused to move.

    Read Also: Tinubu appoints Odusote as first female DG of Nigerian Law School

    Now, there’s talk of Kwankwaso holding talks with ADC or even partnering with Obi to battle Atiku for the party’s ticket. But the former Kano governor isn’t the political prize he once was. His godson, Abba Yusuf, has virtually stripped him of the NNPP structure. All the 44 local government chairmen are loyal to the governor as are the majority of state assembly and House of Representatives members.

    Politicians are not dumb. They flock towards the party they sense has momentum. There’s certainly a reason why they are not beating the bush path to ADC’s door.

    Nigerian opposition politics has often thrived on grievance without offering coherence. So far, what they have offered is invective, not alternatives. In 2026, that weakness will be exposed. Public discontent alone will not suffice. Without a credible national message, the parties risk drifting into 2027 reactive and without energy.

    Economic conditions will add volatility to the political atmosphere. While elections are rarely decided by macroeconomic indicators, hardship sharpens political instincts. Luckily for the incumbent government, inflation is trending downwards. If this pattern continues the gap between official optimism and popular experience would shrink further. That’s not good news for the opposition.

    Security will be another defining fault line. Persistent insecurity will not only shape public mood but also electoral logistics. In some parts of the country, the question will not be which party is favoured, but whether elections can be credibly conducted at all. This scenario played out in parts of the Northeast in 2015.

    Equally important will be the strain placed on institutions. Pre-election Nigeria has a habit of weaponising misinformation, inflaming identity and testing the limits of institutional independence. Electoral bodies, the judiciary and security agencies will come under sustained pressure well before ballots are printed. The tone set in 2026 will either strengthen confidence in these institutions or further erode it.

    The significance of 2026 lies in the simple truth that elections are won long before election day. The bargains struck, institutions stressed or stabilised, and norms upheld or violated this year will shape the outcome and credibility of the 2027 polls.

  • The truth about Tinubu’s economic reforms

    The truth about Tinubu’s economic reforms

    In an article on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s boldness in embarking on major economic reforms early in his administration, Bamidele Ademola-Olateju invoked Robert Frost’s famous poem, The Road Not Taken to show that neither previous Nigerian Presidents nor his major competitors for the presidency in 2023 had the audacity to choose the path Tinubu chose to follow  (see Bamidele Ademola-Olateju, Follow Who Know Road, The Nation, October 15, 2025).

    Tinubu’s chosen path (encoded in his manifesto, Renewed Hope 2023) entails four bold reforms, among others: (1) removal of fuel subsidy; (2) harmonisation of the foreign exchange market; (3) tax reform; and (4) infrastructural development. Although these reforms have interconnected effects on the economy, I will discuss them separately.

    But, first, let’s briefly look at the macro-economic effects of President Tinubu’s reforms, that is, the large-scale or general economic factors, such as subsidy, interest rates, taxation, and infrastructure as they affect fiscal policy, inflation, price stability, employment levels, and so on. When the effects of President Tinubu’s reforms are assessed from the perspective of macroeconomic factors, the result is a positive outlook.

    A quick demonstration is the Nigerian Stock Exchange Market, which, for the first time, exceeded the N100 trillion mark this week. Similarly, Nigeria’s Eurobond issuance was massively oversubscribed. The $2.3 billion target was met four time over! These examples demonstrate international confidence in President Tinubu’s reform agenda.  Furthermore, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, headline inflation, which climbed to 34.19 percent in 2024, has been cut into less than half at 14.5 percent in 2025. It is no wonder then that domestic and international economists as well as global financial institutions have endorsed and praised President Tinubu’s economic reforms.

    However, as far as ordinary folks are concerned, the reforms are only successful if they translate to pocket issues for them. The effects on day-to-day market decisions of individuals are the microeconomic effects of the reforms. The following review is just for demonstration purposes only. It is by no means exhaustive (for more detailed reviews, see Sunday Dare’s Tinubu’s policies yielding positive impact, The Nation, September 21, 2025; and Nigeria: Close of year accounting-sequencing from reform to relief, The Nation, December 30, 2025).

    Removal of fuel subsidy

    Undoubtedly, initial hardships followed the removal of fuel subsidy, leading the price of petrol to climb as high as N1,250 per litre. The result was an immediate hike in transport costs, which affected the cost of goods and services. Today, the litre price has fallen below N800, thanks in part to Dangote Refinery, which exposed the shenanigans of NNPCL and its subsidiaries. True, transport unions have hardly reduced transport costs for passengers in line with the reduction in fuel prices, but drastic reductions should set in soon, especially as the holiday season is rapping up. Otherwise, passengers should begin to call commercial drivers to order.

    Read Also: Fed govt inaugurates committee to train one million Nigerians in digital skills

    However, even more importantly, the removal of fuel subsidy has released more money to be shared by federal, state, and local governments. Today, states are getting more than double their allocations when fuel subsidy was being paid. Heavens might not have fallen over subsidy removal, but it is well known that beneficiaries of the scam (some of whom were not even in the oil business at all) have been fighting back one way or another.

    Equally significant is the fact that this last December and the entire holiday season is the first in decades, when there were no queues at fuel stations or buying fuel at exorbitant prices from off-pump profiteers selling from jerrycans.

    Harmonisation of the exchange rate

    The immediate effects of the harmonisation of the exchange rate were similar to the removal of fuel subsidy. The former affected imported goods, while the latter affected the local markets directly. However, both converged to hike prices of consumer goods and services. The former in particular led to the devaluation of the Naira.

    Fortunately, however, both also started stabilising about the same time. Today, both have witnessed a major downward trend: litre price of fuel from N1,250 to about N750 per litre, while the exchange rate has stabilised at about N1,450/1 dollar from a high of about 1,800/1 dollar. The stabilisation has been aided by rising external reserve, which has been beefed up from a mere $3 billion, when Tinubu assumed office, to about $45 billion today.

    The cumulative effects of both reforms have eased headline inflation as indicated above as well as food inflation. The result is a downward trend in the prices of transport, food, and household goods. This is evident in super- and local markets and retail outlets nationwide. For example, in local markets in Akure, Ondo state, gari has come down from a high of N25,000  to N12,000 per igbeleri; rice from N90-95,000 to N60-6500 per bag; and vegetable oil from about N95,000 to N65,000 per garawa.

    Tax reform

    The restructuring of the tax system started gradually in 2023 and the implementation of the new tax policy began piecemeal in June 2025. Nevertheless, tax collection improved significantly even before the new tax policy went into effect. In 2025, the economy expanded by nearly 4 percent due to robust growth in non-oil sectors, including tax collection, agriculture, manufacturing, and trade.

    For the first time in Nigerian history, a new tax law was enacted, which consolidated over 70 fragmented taxes into a unified, digitised system. Moreover, the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) is no more. It was rebranded into Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), capable of collecting tax on both domestic and foreign earnings. It is expected that this reform will lead to the collection of more taxes from various sources and boost national development.

    Infrastructural development

    President Tinubu has focused on two major types of infrastructure, namely, roads and power generation. He has completed many road projects inherited from the President Muhammadu Buhari administration (2015-2023), such as the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway, the East-West Road, and as many as 135 road projects across Northern Nigeria, according to the Minister of Transport, Sai’du Alkali. In addition, work has been going on steadily on the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and the Sokoto-Badagry Super Highway.

    True, only a few citizens may ply these roads, but many citizens are enjoying record power generation, the Presidential Metering Initiative, and the payment of legacy power-sector debt. For the first time in two years, a popular Akure welder, who closed shop two years ago for lack of power supply, is back at work. Recently, too, my household experienced 24-hour power supply a few times and an average of about 20-hour daily supply overall. As a result, our power generator has been dormant for months.

    Political opponents and saboteurs

    They are at work already, causing confusion and misleading the public about the dividends of these reforms. If they are not focusing on the initial hardships at the beginning of the reforms, they are busy distorting the new tax policy. I won’t be surprised if they ask voters during the campaigns to compare fuel price and exchange rate today with the rates in 2022 or even 2012. They won’t tell voters that if we had continued on the economic trajectory inherited by President Tinubu, the Nigerian economy would have been in a deep ditch by now.

  • Theft from one is theft from all Nigerians: Stop corruption!

    Theft from one is theft from all Nigerians: Stop corruption!

    Now this is 31-12-2025 New Year’s Eve, NYE, for 2026. It is a time of turmoil if you are a known terrorist no matter how strong your political protection. It is one of cautious optimism if you are one of the 2,500,000 documented Internally Displaced Persons, IDPs, in camps or one of the probably another 2,500,000 undocumented IDPs across Nigeria seeking work and education, self-respect and dignity denied them by the evil takeover of their ancestral lands and homes by the terrorists.

    Pray for the emotional recovery of the thousands of kidnap victims. 

    Nigeria’s terrorist/herder mayhem is not a small matter or fallout among friends. What has friendship got to do with wanton killing and destruction of homes and livelihood be it farms, crops or work opportunities? 

    Today’s NYE is one of celebration if you are alive, well, expect or have money, or a job or a pension which pays more than the naira value collapse.

    It is one for good riddance if you or yours suffered stress or loss especially related to kidnapping, terrorism or the economy.

    The seemingly disgracefully huge number and high monetary value of corruption cases revealed this year especially with the ‘trusted’ top echelon of the recent past government are probably the tip of the ‘corruption iceberg’ which has repeatedly hit and threatened to economically sink Nigeria. We all, unknowingly, suffer from every kobo stolen. It reveals  past government political suppression and underfunding of EFCC, ICPC and Police, crippling effectiveness of any preventive measures, pre-emptively discourage, detect and prosecute office holders until after they have left office. We should be able to ensure the collection of all our stolen money.

    Sadly, there is even repeated controversy over the fate of recovered funds and items bought with stolen funds like vehicles, houses, cash, clothes and contents of recovered homes and offices…little or no transparency.

     Some claim the original thieves get much of the recovered property back ‘through the corruption-ridden secret auction or opaque corrupt plea bargain backdoor’. These need transparency and better monitoring.  

    Read Also: New tax laws take off January 1, 2026, Tinubu insists

    Even if we cannot collect all our stolen wealth and property from 2025 and earlier, and we should, surely, we must, in 2026 resolve to, and implement every corruption-preventive  and early corruption-detection means to prevent forever one individual, minister or military or messenger from stealing  a kobo while in office. They are already so well paid.

    Nigeria is at war. Certainly, Boko Haram, ISIS and other terrorist groups, bandits etc. and certain violent herder groups are at war with Nigeria. The evidence is in plain sight, five million IDPs, are not there by choice but by fear.

    A country at war cannot fight the enemy and also the giant corruption enemy within. This is why every effort must be made to curb the already demonstrated unbridled ‘Corruption Lust’ of many of our big men and women and even down to the extortion of transport workers by union and uniformed road security organisations. They have repeatedly proved that they are untrustworthy. They steal tooooo much, leaving too little for services and developmental growth.

    What possesses fellow Nigerians, elected or selected, to sit in office of service, shouldering grave responsibility and knowingly, willingly and cruelly delay, pad and inflate budgets and contracts, demand enormous bribes and expect briefcases of forex just for sitting in the office? Yes, corruption is worldwide but there is low liveable corruption worldwide and maniacal corruption devouring Nigeria. Each person answers individually to God who will weigh the effect on the poor and punish accordingly.

    Your ‘Honesty vs Corruption’ policy is personal and depends entirely on you, not any other human being. Simple test: If you would be ashamed if your action was announced on NTA, it is probably a corrupt action. Stop!

    For 2026 we should step back and think about why Nigeria is not where it should be. We all agree that one of the reasons why we have failed is that the corrupt people have failed us. This is easily correctable. ‘Theft from one Nigerian is theft from us all.’

    Thieves in public office, corrupt individuals, cartels and even corrupt stop-and-search checkers constitute the ‘Corruption Army’ which has held sway for too long. Like it or not, this thievery, this corruption, can cost more than a war effort and it is cumulatively crippling Nigeria from year to year and must stop or be stopped before there is nothing left to steal.  It has taken two years of current government’s CBN efforts to recover the dignity of a decent foreign reserve which can easily be squandered and stolen again. The naira value is still a national disgrace.

    Nigeria cannot afford to lose its ‘Nigerian Sustainable Development Democracy Dream-2026’ yet again to forces which are motivated, to systematically re-enforce corruption and take that 2026 Dream from Nigerians. The ‘Corrupt Persons Army’ ignores the fact that every naira stolen, every budget not met, every project not completed or below standards has in the past and will continue to punish by depriving babies of their mothers dying in childbirth, depriving pupils of adequate teaching, depriving workers of a living wage, depriving travellers of pothole-free roads, and depriving hospitals of quality equipment.    

    The president can stop the corruption war against Nigeria. Set up a pre-emptive and proactive EFCC and ICPC and stamp out the public face of Nigeria’s corruption- road corruption.

    Happy New Year 2026.

  • Tunde Ponnle: From classroom to boardroom (1939-2025)

    Tunde Ponnle: From classroom to boardroom (1939-2025)

    Although I had read about him online in Nigerian newspapers, Prince Michael Ayantunde Ponnle was already far along in his journey into stardom before I ever met him. That was fifteen years ago or so, when we met at his pioneering MicCom Golf Course in Ada, Osun state. I was introduced to him by Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, then Governor of Osun state, who had invited me from the United States, to participate in a conference on Yoruba culture, which he had organised. I was among the guests lodged in the MicCom Golf Hotels and Conference Resort on that occasion. It was only more recently that we truly became friends. That friendship was solidified by a common friend, Bode Adediji of Bode Adediji Partnership, also from Ada, and by Prince Ponle’s marriage to the former Deputy Governor of Osun state, Mrs. Titi Laoye-Ponnle, whom I had known for quite some time.  

    His was a star-studded life, but it did not start that way. His parents were so poor they could not afford to send him to a secondary school. Instead, he went to a Teacher Training College to become a classroom teacher. However, when be could no longer tolerate his secondary school friends’ taunts about science, he enrolled in a correspondence programme to learn science. That was his steppingstone to admission to the Polytechnic of North London to study electrical engineering.

    Upon return to Nigeria, he was hired by the Ministry of Education from where he resigned to establish his own company. That was the beginning of the famous MicCom Wires and Cables Company. Like his humble educational beginnings, the take-off of the company was rough. It started out as a contracting company but graduated into a full-fledged manufacturing company since 1978. The foundational capital was £25,000 with which Prince Ponnle went to India to buy three cable-making machines. These would be complemented with other machines to produce various types of completed wires and cables, from household electrical wires to armoured and non-armoured cables.

    About 20 years after establishing the cable manufacturing company, Prince Ponnle was introduced to golf, and he fell in love with the game (some see it as a sport) as he did with science. In no time, the MicCom Golf Hotels and Resorts was established in Ada, his home state of Osun as both a tourist and leisure destination to serve private individuals, groups, corporate and military executives, and government institutions.

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    He also diversified into real estate. I once intervened in a property he wanted to sell to a Chinese company. My intervention was motivated by the proximity of the property to government establishment. I negotiated with the government to purchase the property. Prince Ponnle agreed, although at a reduced price and staggered payment terms. Yet, my friend was still grateful for sensitizing him to the security implication of selling the property to the Chinese. He would later send an intermediary to me to find out how much cut I would take. My response was prompt and clear: “Nothing. I did it as a friend of both government and seller. Any cut would damage the friendship with both parties.” It was later revealed that a government official had earlier intervened, asking the government to purchase the property at a higher price than I negotiated. The fellow had asked the seller for a N10 million cut!

     All along, Prince Ponnle had always set funds aside for philanthropy, leading to the establishment of the MicCom Foundation for Educational Development. The Foundation has provided scholarships for secondary and higher education and research grants for university teachers. He was appalled by the deplorable state of university education in Nigeria, when he served as a member of the Governing Council of Osun State University, Osogbo. He also sponsored an annual lecture series, The Prince Tunde Ponnle Lecture, given around convocation period at the Osun State University.

    Prince Ponle also invested in healthcare by establishing the MicCom Cancer Foundation through which Nigerians were alerted to the need for regular health checks for early detection of killer diseases, such as cancer. He was a pillar in the fight against the coronavirus epidemic in Osun state through the donation of money and time. He served on a state committee to develop a strategy for fighting the pandemic in the state.

    In the course of his business activities for about 50 years, Prince Ponnle created jobs for thousands and wealth for millions. He provided educational support, assisted the sick, and nurtured industries. His services to individuals, groups, communities, state, and nation did not go unnoticed. His business acumen, strategic foresight, and leadership skills attracted him to corporate boards. One of them was Lafarge, formerly West African Portland Cement, of which he was once Chairman.

    Three qualities stand out about Prince Ponnle. First, he had the qualities of a pioneer, which include vision, resilience, resourcefulness, and courage. In pursuing new ventures, pioneers are willing to take risks, even in the face of difficulties and initial failure, because they are visionary enough to see far into the future. The traits of a pioneer trailed Prince Ponnle throughout his life—from valuing science early and picking it up through correspondence tuition; from starting out as a teacher to becoming an engineer; from working as a contractor to turning around as a manufacturer; and from being taught how to play golf to establishing a multimillion-dollar golf course.

    Second, he was as meek and gentle as they come. The milk of human kindness was in his makeup. His philanthropic ventures sprang from this quality.

    Finally, lest he be accused of sudden death, Prince Ponnle was careful about taking care of himself. He had been overseas at least twice this year, each time looking after his health as many people in his age bracket do. He had just returned from England, when he was called to eternal rest. He will forever be remembered for his enduring legacies.

    My heart goes to his wife, Mrs. Titi Laoye-Ponnle, the children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren. May his soul rest in peace.