Category: Festus Eriye

Festus ERIYE

IF 2020 was the year of the coronavirus, then 2021 is already shaping to be more of the same. Less than twenty four hours into the New Year, the raging pandemic is showing little sign of slowing down and vaccines roll outs could take several months to reach most people.

If you needed evidence these are not ordinary times, then look no further than the latest measures taken by several states to restrict what is one largest religious gatherings of the year – the so-called ‘Crossover’ services.

Several states have expressly barred churches from holding the meetings which attract unusually large crowds as many put much store by entering a new year in the church environment. Many states hid under the 12.00 midnight to 4.00pm curfew imposed by the Federal Government to resist pressure from Christians who had been denied something they cherish so much. But as some have argued there would be other ‘Crossover’ nights for those who outlive this pandemic.

With the numbers trending upwards, governments across the country are veering into panic mode, fearing that existing facilities could easily be overrun if the current spike spirals out of control.

That is, of course, with the exception of Kogi State where Yahaya Bello, the famously denialist governor, continues with his insistence that COVID-19 is non-existent in his domain. He went on Channels Television on Sunday to repeat his controversial claim and boast about mass testing carried out by his administration.

The trouble with his claims is that they don’t line up with facts provided by the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC). Kogi has a population of 3.5 million people, but had tested only 425 samples as at December 11. So much for mass testing!

Bello’s denial is the direct opposite of what’s going on in Rivers State where Governor Nyesom Wike, who at the height of the first wave famously bulldozed two hotels for violating lockdown measures, threatening a return to the harsh shutdown regime in the light of the deadly second wave.

Speaking at a church service on Sunday, he hinted his hand might be forced beginning January because the state ends up picking the bill. “If you don’t comply, I have no choice, but to shut down the churches; Pentecostal, Catholic, Anglican. I have no choice because when you have it, who spends the money? It is the state that treats. So, we need to use the money for some other things, but not for this.”

The governor’s threat has his people up in arms begging for mercy on every media platform. Rather than locking everyone up, they suggest he enforces existing regulations because the economic price would be too much for people to bear.

Some even suggested that instead of the bitter lockdown pill, Wike should ban Nigerians returning from overseas from entering the state. While at it he should also shut the door against those coming from states with high number of infections.

That would include states like Lagos, the original epicentre of the first wave. The number of infections is already rising here as it keeps pace with a similar trend in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

But the Lagos authorities has always been quick of mark and in the last few days they have shut a number of event centres which violated existing rules for operating in these times. The facilities include one where a monster party was held and the crowd was as packed as sand on the beach. On the bandstand was a famous Fuji musicians whose sonorous voice caressed the carousing crowd.

It is not known if anyone picked up an infection at the event. But what is clear going by similar patterns from around the world, is this party met every yardstick for classification as a superspreader event. One post on social media identified an attendee who just passed on due to COVID-19 complications.

The amazing thing is that the vast majority of those who crowded themselves into that party are the elite who by their education and exposure should know better.

While the reckless rich are partying away like its 1999, the fraudulent and the desperate are making common cause with them. Lagos State Commissioner for Health, Prof. Akin Abayomi, on Monday raised the alarm over the sale of fake COVID-19 test certificates in the state.

He said some people who just returned to the country were patronising crooks who sell these dodgy COVID-19 certificates. Abayomi says the government is working to apprehend those engaged in this criminal venture. Hopefully, they may nick a few of these characters. But when you consider that the fake drugs business is still thriving in these parts there’s very little room for optimism.

One developments that has nations shivering in their boots is the mutation of the virus. Different highly infectious strains have been identified in the UK, US and South Africa. A similar mutation said to be of a separate lineage from those mentioned above has been found in Nigeria according to the head of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), John Nkengasong.

The good news is that while these mutations might be more infectious, they are not necessarily deadlier than earlier ones. They don’t appear to make you sicker than other strains currently in circulation. Even better news is the fact that the new vaccines seem to be effective against both old and new strains.

Spare a thought for frontline workers like doctors and nurses who must be watching with envy as their colleagues in Europe and the US become the earliest recipients of the COVID-19 vaccines. In Nigeria, the best armour they have going into daily battle with this beastly virus are flimsy PPEs. Little wonder that last weekend the Nigerian Medical Association chairman in the FCT reported that 20 doctors had succumbed to coronavirus in one week.

It has also emerged that 476 health workers, among them doctors, nurses, pharmacists, laboratory staff, drivers and other auxiliary personnel were infected by the virus since the first case was recorded in the FCT. Figures are not yet available to paint a full picture of the toll on medical workers across the country.

But whether you are a frontline worker or just an anonymous citizen struggling to outlast the pandemic, stay safe and don’t become another COVID statistic.

By Festus Eriye

The initial impulse is to dismiss Boko Haram’s claim of responsibility for the abduction of over 300 students at Kankara Science Secondary School in Katsina State as merely opportunistic. But given the scope and audacity behind this incident, we shouldn’t be in a hurry to do so.

Katsina is some way off the terrorists’ current stomping grounds of Borno and Yobe States, yet very obvious parallels with the kidnapping six years ago of 276 students at Government Girls Secondary School in Chibok, should give us cause for pause.

On the night of April 14, 2014, insurgents came in trucks and calmly carted away close to three hundred girls. Last Friday, attackers who for want of a better name we will call bandits, raided the Kankara school, stealing hundreds of students. The official figure is 333 missing from a school population of 839.

There hasn’t been much link in recent times between the Islamist insurgency in the Northeast and the violence perpetrated by criminals in the Northwest. For instance, in Zamfara much of it has been connected to illegal gold mining. Banditry in Katsina has equally been driven by economic factors.

Still, we have seen over the years that despite its pious spouting of religious gobbledygook, Boko Haram has never been averse to engaging in armed robbery and kidnapping to finance its vision of a theocratic enclave in northern Nigeria.

That’s why it’s not inconceivable that the insurgents may be invested in the vast and lucrative violent criminal enterprises sweeping across the north.

We now know that in Kankara the abductors rode on motorcycles and spirited their victims away. This is amazing, because to be able to take away 300 students you not only require sufficient time, but also an armada of bikes.

In other words, the criminals operated for as long as they desired – probably hours – without an alarm being raised in the age of the cell phone and social media!

It’s all so mysterious – stuff that triggers a thousand questions and conspiracy theories. Six years ago when the Chibok girls’ story broke, the first few days were lost to denial. President Goodluck Jonathan was suspicious that it was another stunt by the opposition to embarrass his government. The reactions got more farcical when his wife Patience convened an inquiry that famously ended with her wailing before the cameras: ‘there is God ooo!’

Defence spokesman, Major General John Enenche says the military didn’t immediately engage the bandits because they were using students as human shields and the concern was to preserve the lives of victims.

The deed had been done and the military was being cautious in its rescue effort. But what happened before the incident? Just as it was in 2014, people want know how it is possible to pull off something this big without Intelligence having an inkling.

The abduction of hundreds of students couldn’t have been carried out by a five-man gang. It would take a fairly large and well-coordinated criminal structure to execute it. If they had gotten that big, who was keeping an eye on them? After all, bandits have been in the news in Katsina for more than five years. Did the authorities come to accept their lesser outrages as something to live with?

Just as Chibok became a negative turning point for the Jonathan administration, and provided the opposition ammunition to successfully define it as incompetent, Kankara is a defining moment for the Muhammadu Buhari administration regarding its handling of the nation’s security challenges.

Sultan of Sokoto, Muhammadu Sa’ad Abubakar, says the bandits slapped the president and he’s right. The symbolism of his state becoming the hotbed for banditry is stark. Buhari is president of the whole nation, but the optics are awful when his home state is under siege.

For so long, he was untouchable and beloved of the masses up north. But angry voices are now criticising him for unrelenting insecurity that won’t allow many access their farms.

From Borno to Kaduna to Katsina to Zamfara, it is hard to think of one state where people can sleep with two eyes closed or travel without worrying about winding up in some kidnappers’ den.

Again, the symbolism of Governor Aminu Masari weeping while addressing distraught parents of abducted students, speaks to his helplessness. At some point, he tried to dialogue with bandits and was famously photographed in 2019 with one openly brandishing an AK47.

He has since reversed course after realising government should never put itself in a situation where it is seen as cosying up to criminals, or bending over to appease them. When desperate individuals and families pay ransom to rescue loved ones, it is barely acceptable.

It’s a different matter when bandits get the impression they have the whip hand over the state. They become emboldened. Now, it appears the wrongheaded appeasement policy of many years has resulted in criminal enterprise becoming the sole growth industry in Katsina.

In June this year, Masari swore his government would no longer pursue a peace agreement with criminals who he accused of breaching trust. How naïve can you get! Bandits are anything but honourable and it was wrong to have treated them as moral equals.

With the Chibok abductions it was clear Boko Haram fighters were looking for sex slaves and women to sire offspring to beef up their ranks. The Kankara kidnappers have already contacted families to start putting ransom together. They could also be crudely recruiting to increase their numbers.

Whatever their motive, this incident represents a graphic failure of the Buhari administration to crack the problem of insecurity – especially in the north. When he took over it was largely the issue of the insurgency. Today, the problem has metastasized.

Current security threats are different from anything Nigeria knew in the 70s and 80s, therefore the president has to unlearn whatever methods worked for him in the past. Existing arrangements are not working period!

Luckily for Buhari he, unlike Jonathan, doesn’t have to go before voters in search of another term. Still, unless something urgent is done his inability to secure the land would tarnish his legacy – overshadowing every other thing he achieved in his second coming to public office.

By Festus Eriye

Five weeks into President Muhammadu Buhari’s first term in office, I wrote a column wondering whether Boko Haram would demystify him.

He had swept into office as the tested general projecting an air of confidence that he would quickly bring the insurgents to heel. But the terrorists welcomed him with an intense burst of bloodletting for which the new administration had no solution.

Five years after, his government is confronted with security challenges that have metastasized beyond the insurgency. Things have been exacerbated by the #EndSARS protests which grounded large parts of the country for the better part of two weeks.

One lingering fallout is the collapse of policing across the country. The Nigerian Police Force for so long used to acting ‘forcefully,’ found themselves in strange straits with the authorities restraining them – even when their lives were threatened and their facilities destroyed.

Long before matters came to a head with parts of the country dissolving into massive orgies of looting, the police had disappeared from the streets. Only a fraction have returned and those ones showing little zeal for work.

Several accounts speak of disillusionment within the ranks. One recent report revealed hundreds of cops had turned in their resignation in the aftermath of the humiliation they suffered during the protests.

Government officials have made a show of reaching out to the force in encouragement, but it appears the trauma struck deep and it would take a while for things to return to normal.

In the interim, a certain tension hangs over the land. Take two key flashpoints of the recent violence – Lagos and Benin-City. The latter has been the scene of bloody clashes between rival cult groups that have left close to 30 persons dead. Among the casualties was an Assistant Commissioner of Police.

As though this was not bad enough, close to 2,000 inmates who escaped in jailbreaks are still on the loose. Some are said to be threatening the lives of police prosecutors who sent them to prison, the others definitely returning to the only life they know.

It may not be as dramatic as what’s going on in Edo, but similar violence has been recorded in Lagos suburbs of Ketu and Mushin where criminal gangs emboldened by the continued absence of the police, have resorted to violence and damaging of private property.

What should worry us is how easily internal security arrangements have been overrun and compromised.

The violence exposed how undermanned the police are. They were easily overwhelmed by the massive mobs that embraced the riots. It was what pushed Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, to run to the military for help to stabilise the city.

So far, not many are talking about the giant elephant in the room – the failure of intelligence. The government was clearly caught unawares and wrong-footed at every turn. Even if it was aware something was afoot, its security reports understated the threats and didn’t understand what was about to explode. Intelligence agencies with all manner of fancy names simply fell down on the job.

Even the military which is the last resort where internal security arrangements fail, are themselves overstretched with commitments to joint operations in several states and the continuing fight against insurgents in the Northeast.

That leaves us with a dangerous and unstable security situation that cannot be sustained for long. Things could definitely get worse quickly, if this boycott of duties by the police is not swiftly addressed before the onset of the festive season – a time when traditionally there’s a spike in criminal activity.

For the short term, we must admit we have a serious problem with violent crime that’s only going to get worse given that lots of firearms were plundered by hoodlums who vandalised and torched over 200 police stations. They are not holding these items as keepsakes; they would be deployed for something nefarious sooner or later.

Aside the weapons stolen from the police, gunrunners also had a field day in the window of violence during the protests that saw them overrunning the land border posts and smuggling in whatever they wanted. At some point their deadly merchandise would get into the hands of criminals.

To address the situation, the authorities have to move swiftly beyond the speechmaking. Concrete steps should be taken to restore the damaged infrastructure and erase constant reminders of a traumatic chapter.

The force has to be managed psychologically to restore their sense of worth. They should be made to understand that the #EndSARS protest was not a rejection of the police as an institution, but a repudiation of the model of policing that saw nothing wrong in violating human rights and dehumanising those they are meant to protect. After all, the protesters demanded, among other things, an improvement in service conditions for the police.

For the long term, the protests – especially the continuing controversy over what actually happened at the Lekki toll gate – make it imperative for the nation to revisit the idea of a force we can run to when the police is outgunned, so as to insulate the army as much as possible from getting sucked into internal security issues. The National Guard idea floated by former President Ibrahim Babangida is well worth another look in the circumstance.

This is in addition to taking firm legislative steps on the state police proposal to make it a reality. All these structures would help to raise the numbers available for policing our exploding population.

There can be no progress – economic or otherwise – if the country isn’t secure. Potential investors would look at what just played out and the ease with which Lagos was burnt down and wonder whether it is wise to put resources in such a volatile environment.

As he winds down his time in office, President Buhari needs to take a cold hard look at what his legacy in the area of security would be. The image of the swashbuckling general who crushed Maitatsine fundamentalists in the 80s and chased their remnants all the way into Chad, helped propel him into office.

Unless he quickly stabilises the country by embracing fresh ideas, the current multifaceted security challenges would quickly demystify him as no better than his widely-derided predecessor.”

Festus ERIYE

THE recent #EndSARS protests were supposedly about taking out a diseased limb of the Nigeria Police Force, but they may just have succeeded in almost taking down the institution.

The police have a horrid image that is earned. The Special Anti-Robbery Squad was especially notorious, but the regular force were not much better in the misuse of their powers. It would be wrong to suggest that all policemen are bad, but the foul deeds of some effectively buried the heroic acts of the angels in their midst.

The SARS bomb blew up in the face of the Muhammadu Buhari regime, but it’s not alone in doing nothing about the problem. Abuses by the unit have been on for years. All governments since 1984 – civilian and military – should take responsibility for the tragic results of their negligence.

According to Inspector-General of Police, Mohammed Adamu, 73 Nigerians died across the country while the protests raged. Of that number, 22 were cops. A total of 205 stations were also razed.

The targeting of the force has wrought not just physical damage but psychological ones as well. Today, the police are damaged goods, a sulking shell of thousands on an unofficial strike.

Before the protests, they were under-funded – lacking operational vehicles and arms. In some instances things as basic as stationery were not provided. Even more scandalous are reports of them having to pay for uniforms and boots from their own pockets. In terms of remuneration they were largely treated as the poorer cousins among the security agencies.

It is hard for many to be sympathetic towards the police on account their many outrages. But in the end they are still humans; mothers, fathers, brothers and sisters to people. Many of those who were killed weren’t SARS officers towards whom ire was originally directed.

For all its bad image the force is the only such institution we have for executing the critical function of policing. Every society needs one.

But it cannot be the same again after such a humbling experience. So often the ones to dish out violence, here they were outnumbered by mobs asking for their heads. In times past they would have responded with this force.

But the world has changed so much that even when reports started coming in of cops being attacked and stations being razed, the leadership couldn’t give its men freedom to react with force, knowing that a heavy death toll would attract global outrage. Perhaps that restraint is why casualty figures are as low as they are.

We cannot waste the opportunity which the #EndSARS episode offers. What the crisis has shown is that the police structure bequeathed to Nigeria by the British 60 years ago is no longer adequate for today’s need.

The country is crying out for policing arrangements that are closer to local communities. The government’s community policing initiative doesn’t go far enough as it still proceeds from that ineffective centralised structure.

Beyond the obvious challenges of the police, the protests were revealing in many other ways that should frighten us. I can understand the anger of young people who feel let down by their leaders and country. But some of the rage cannot be explained away just on this ground: it is something that speaks of a total breakdown of values and loss of our humanity.

SARS officers were noted for brutality, but in the course of the rioting that followed, we saw mobs of young people outdoing the hated squad. In one viral video, a bunch of them were captured clubbing a policeman to unconsciousness. They hit him with all sorts of items and as he staggered in blood-drenched circles, his attackers screamed with glee.

I saw people casually setting vehicles and others property worth millions ablaze. The assumption was that the mobs were attacking government or the corrupt elite, in many cases they were not. Many small business owners had their assets devastated. In a suburb of Lagos, looters plundered two trucks full of goats and proceeded to set the vehicles ablaze.

Even those who did so much for the poor at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic were not spared. I watched a video of an elderly businessman in Osun State whose establishment employs thousands in that axis, weeping over the vandalisation of his factories. It was heartbreaking.

The same people – young and not-so-young – who abuse thieving politicians, gleefully cleaned out privately-owned shopping malls and so-called palliatives-laden warehouses.

The media lazily tagged all involved in the shameful activity ‘hoodlums’, but there were many ordinary people who are not involved in an everyday life of petty crime who took part.

Many have not stopped rationalising the irrational, arguing that the looting was justified because of widespread hunger. But poverty alone doesn’t explain the massive stealing that just took place. Many weren’t clutching bags of rice or garri, they went after plasma TVs, washing machines and the like.

The vast majority of our population – millions of them – are poor, but they didn’t participate in the looting and vandalisation. The crowds of looters tallied up would just number in the thousands nationwide. The poorest parts of Nigeria are in the north and yet it witnessed the least incidents of looting.

I definitely agree that the level of poverty in Nigeria is criminal and something urgently needs to be done about it. We are in a state of emergency that requires an all-out national effort irrespective of political persuasion. Until these numbers are reduced to manageable levels, the swirling mass of the desperate cannot be contained by any force of arms. As we saw recently, even the army and police had to stand back before the baying mobs. After all, how many are you going to kill?

Still, at family and other levels of society we all need to take responsibility for the collapse of values. An unforgettable photo I saw was of a middle-aged man clutching a little boy – most probably his son with one hand – while hanging on grimly to his bag of loot.

The little boy is already being programmed to take whatever he likes – even when it’s not his property. Imagine what he would do in a position of responsibility and power!

Festus ERIYE

WHAT started as a simple, targeted protest against police brutality has collapsed into an orgy of mindless violence across the country.

Today, several states are under a curfew. Troops and anti-riot police squads have been deployed across the country. In many cities public and private buildings have been razed. The death toll in the last 24 hours is likely to be in double figures at the end of the reckoning.

We’ve learnt from past mass actions – whether it was the June 12 annulment agitation, the SAP riots or the many protests against fuel price increases since 1999, that at some point they spiral out of control of those who think they are running things.

You assume you’re are in control but you are really not. You can’t even guarantee the conduct of your supporters even if you had handed them a code of conduct manual. As for hoodlums and others who just see violent acts perpetrated in the charged environment as fun and games, you have no hold. It presents the government with rationale to step in with brute force – brandishing the good old law and order card.

Let’s be clear, the fresh-faced young men and women who kicked off these agitations were not throwing stones or starting fires. They were waving Nigerian flags, chanting, dancing and tweeting their frustrations. But the longer it lasted, even after the authorities had given them a sop, the more of a threat they became.

SARS was a small, clay-footed monster, swiftly sacrificed by those who created it, in a self-preserving act of appeasement. In quickly calling time on the much-hated police unit, the authorities thought they could buy time and defuse a phenomenon they couldn’t understand.

A government that has been so intolerant of minor protests like the Revolution Now ones before now, folded spectacularly with minimal push from the agitators. Nothing captures official nervousness as much as the rushed announcement of SWAT barely days after the protests started.

For government, the main challenge was how to restore normalcy, but it knew it couldn’t use deadly force. It would be messy and fraught with unknown consequences. This isn’t the world when Tianenmen Square happened and Nigeria isn’t China – a global power that can thumb its nose at everyone and get away with it.

While state and federal authorities dithered, looking for a solution that wouldn’t make them future candidates for International Criminal Court (ICC) trials, youths at the barricades and the unseen hands pressing their buttons, sensed they had the government on the ropes and pressed their advantage.

This was the very revealing and critical juncture that has brought us where we are today. The authorities were willing to end SARS and commit to police reform at their own pace. But the protest movement not only wanted these things activated at the speed of a tweet, they had moved on by brandishing a new shopping list of demands which the government wasn’t interested in.

The challenge for protestors was converting what had been a stunning success in terms of their achieving their original objective, into something broader – creating a new Nigeria of their dreams.

It’s like here’s this great platform, everybody jump on board! Come if your agenda is feminism, come if you want better roads, lower electricity bills, come if your beef is with federal lawmakers’ salaries, you’re welcome if you want regime change. That was the break point!

Police brutality was an issue all could relate to irrespective of faith, ethnicity or political conviction. But the moment the agenda went beyond that, the door was opened for introduction of our national poisons.

Slowly but surely agent provocateurs began spinning it as a North versus South opening salvo in 2023 presidential politics. For some it was a bid to kick President Muhammadu Buhari out of office through unconstitutional means. Yobe State Governor and interim head of the All Progressives Congress (APC) even suggested that advocates of restructuring could be fanning the flames.

I am less surprised by the way the narrative has swung, than by what it revealed of protest leaders who live on Twitter but know very little about the country they seek to change. They should have seen the ambush coming, instead they ran into it with eyes open.

Each side must now decide their endgame. How far do the protesters and their leaders want to go? They may not have a figurehead, but they have leaders. What is their exit strategy? Or is it a kamikaze movement that’s only interested in mutually assured destruction?

Is this about reforms or overthrowing the system that currently exists? What would they put in place that’s an improvement on what we have now?

Earlier, I referred to SARS as a small monster, the 60-year-old system that controls this nation is a hydra-headed leviathan that’s not going to be undone in a hurry. It took time to grow, it would take time to dismantle.

The protests have achieved so much in highlighting police brutality. They have done even more in rousing our disconnected political elite to the level of poverty and misery in the land. There is deep-seated frustration and anger that any wise government should not ignore – even if they manage to temporarily tamp down the chaos.

For the #EndSARS movement all is not lost. The young people driving it have shown that they have the capacity to achieve great things politically if they can learn from their mistakes. They must learn how not to squander public goodwill. The strategy of blocking roads only guarantees more suffering and frustration for those on whose behalf they claim to be fighting. Many no longer found the protests so entertaining when businesses began to suffer and livelihoods negatively impacted.

A little humility also doesn’t hurt. Don’t lecture people about how the additional suffering is for their own good. Let them buy into the sacrifice willingly.

People can always return to their demonstrations in a world where such long-running protests are now normal. The George Floyd/Black Lives Matter protests have been on for five months, those in Hong Kong even longer. We must overcome the shock of the new and get used to a new generation that wants to ‘soro soke (speak up).’

By Salihu Ajibola Ajia

THIS is the moment for hard truth and sober reflection. On Tuesday, October 6, 2020, a local blog published a screenshot of a story it had published on May 20, 2019, accompanied with a video footage of protesting pensioners and players at the Kwara United FC. In that footage, the protesters said their backlogs of salaries had not been paid since 2013. The same blog then captured how the new administration has commenced the payment of these salary arrears and sign-on fees of the players and officials of the club.

These backlogs of salary, pensions and gratuities are not limited to the football club. It is a rule, not an exception, across several MDAs in the state. In the local government system alone, no less than N21bn is owed to pensioners. The arrears in the LG system for active workers is in excess of N6bn. Across the state MDAs, thousands of workers are owed outstanding of promotion arrears. Thousands got promoted and are on grade levels without commensurate pay. It is a debt on the state. Some have been on the same grade level for years without promotion, partly because promotion normally comes with the burden of backing it with pay rise. Promotion is a legitimate aspiration for workers.

At the level of the local government, the wage bill and other statutory payments, which stands at N2.5bn as at September ending, is 91% percentage of their total receipts from the Federal Government. This does not include other expenses. When added, those expenses bring the wage bill to between 100% or 108% of their federal allocation. This (N2.5bn) wage bill, to be sure, is pegged to the N18, 000 minimum wage.  It will rise to roughly N2.9bn when the new minimum wage is implemented (depending on what the labour and the government eventually agree to).

The question has always been where to get the difference between what is earned as allocation (an average of N2.6bn, including their 10% share of the IGR) and the balance with which to pay the minimum wage. If we assume that allocation may indeed rise to N2.9bn to allow for payment of the minimum wage, does it mean that all that is done at the LGAs is payment of salary? What happens to infrastructural development?

You may ask, what about their IGR? Between 2019 and date, the total IGR  collected by KWIRS (Citizenships, Radio license, tenement rate and signage) on behalf of all the 16 local governments stands at N78.9m as of June 2020.

Reality check: this calculation does not provide for promotion. What that means is that no worker can substantially move up the ladder as they ought to. Every worker dreams to rise through the ladder to the highest echelon of their profession. But the Kwara workforce is too bloated to allow for free, legitimate movement. It is a double tragedy for the state and the workforce, really. But it is the reality.

Bloated civil service is a lose-lose for all: the employees and the employers. The employers would have to spend almost everything on the workforce while the employees would often time not get what is due to them. Often, three employees may earn what one employee ought to earn because the employers simply cannot afford more, except they want to borrow for consumption. No serious government does that. Ultimately, the employees are the greater losers because they are unable to meet up with basic challenges of life. For no fault of theirs, the hard working type may forever have unfulfilled working life.

This takes us to the next phase of the conversation: how did we get here? What were the yardsticks for recruiting people into the public sector? Were there any needs assessment that warranted the numbers we have now? There are very brilliant and hardworking civil servants across the MDAs in Kwara. But are these eggheads in the majority today? How did we employ senior civil servants who cannot write good memos or design proposals? What yardsticks did we employ to recruit a teacher who cannot write a simple sentence or communicate in the language of instruction? The truth, as any sincere mind could tell, is that the Kwara civil service was designed in the recent years as a reward system for loyalists of the ousted dynasty. People got appointment often without writing any examination or attending any interview that tested their suitability for the job. The education sector was not spared. Some chaps once told me in Twitter DM how they got employed as sunset workers (teachers). Their parents got the slots from their friends in government. While headhunting may not always be a crime, it is not a licence to load the workforce with persons that cannot do the job. It is not a licence to give free meal ticket to friends and cronies without commensurate benefits to the system that pays the bill.

Now the situation is dire. Labour wants the minimum wage implemented. It is their right. Workers need decent wage. But can the system afford it as it is? If it does, what suffers for it? Most likely infrastructural development that serve 99 percent of the public. If that happens, what is the future of the state including the civil servants who have children who would call Kwara their state? For Kwara to pay minimum wage at the local government level, especially the consequential increment, they would spend 107 percent of their total monthly receipts from the federal government for just workers’ salary. As noted above, this does not include other expenses.

The situation is not so better at the state level. Currently, 71 percent of the entire FAAC receipts goes into paying salaries of workers. This does not include the cost of running government and allocations to the MDAs. In September, Kwara got N4bn as allocation. But that is half the story. The allocation went up because the federal government has suspended full payment of loans until April next year. This means allocation would dip when full repayment resumes. Also, deductions for foreign loans, which the government inherited, have now risen by almost 61.9% (from N39.6m to N64.1m monthly) because of the recent devaluation of the naira.

The minimum wage table being debated between the labour and government will add N263m to the current wage bill of the state government. If this sails through, it means Kwara will now spend 79% of its total FAAC receipts on average to pay workers alone. What about the IGR? The spendable part of the state IGR is around N600m. What is left of the IGR are akin to revolving funds, such as receipts from hospitals or tertiary schools (school fee) and so on which go back to them to keep them afloat. But, again, how much should a state like Kwara spend on wage bill? For those who want government to run like business so that public can get value for their money, which business spends 79% of its earnings to pay wages alone?

This is the Kwara story. As things stand, both the government and the labour have tough decisions to make for the future of the state. No side holds the ace. If the Governor inks the minimum wage agreement today, it is clear that the local government cannot afford it. The way out is to borrow to pay. Or the state piles up arrears of unpaid salary in the coming months. Should we do that? If the state inks any agreement that adds N263m to the wage bill, the consequence is glaring for infrastructural development.

The government, for its part, appears to be trying to rev up its revenue without imposing more burdens on the stressed populace. But the facts are clear: businesses in post-COVID-19 are struggling to survive and must be so treated. Similarly, the government is carrying out reforms in the civil service without sacking workers. Investments would come with steady allocation of resources to infrastructural development to open up the state while reforms designed to ease the business climate are ongoing. North, South, and Central parts of the state are recording undeniable infrastructural developments worth billions of naira without borrowings so far. Salaries are paid 100 percent latest by 25th of every month, while arrears are being sorted gradually.

The labour movement comprises very responsible citizens and leaders in their own right. Everyone is stressed. The waste and indiscretions of the past are gone with the past, even though they haunt us all. The government, to be fair, has been prudent. No official vehicle has been purchased for the Governor, his deputy, cabinet members or other aides. Those with official vehicles inherited them. Even so, operational vehicles worth millions of naira have been purchased for smooth running of the civil service.

There is no easy answer to the minimum wage riddles at hand. Rigidity pays no side. And no side can afford the luxury of partisan sentiments. All that matters now, and would be in the overall interest of the state, is a huge dose of patriotism, forbearance, and good faith on all sides.

As somebody who was once in government before and was indeed a part of the Kwara struggle over the years with appreciable knowledge of the state and sincere love for workers, I appeal to the labour unions to kindly take a hard look at the issues and put the interest of the state above every other consideration. That is the sacrifice we all have to make at this point.

• Ajia, a former university teacher and publishing executive, is a public policy analyst based in Ilorin.