The Nation Newspaper

Category: Festus Eriye

  • Asari-Dokubo’s Benin adventures

    Mujahid Asari Dokubo is a man of mystery. The one-time leader of the defunct Niger Delta Volunteer Forces – one of the groups that led a violent uprising against the Federal Government in the riverine creeks – doesn’t like to be called a militant – and for good reason, too.

    These days he’s more of a wheeler-dealer who takes time once in a while to unleash verbal political missiles. When he’s not threatening to break up Nigeria if Goodluck Jonathan is not reelected in 2015, he’s cosying-up to the likes of Oodua Peoples Congress (OPC) founder, Dr. Frederick Fasehun, Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB), Ralph Uwazurike and former Chief Security Officer to late Head of State, Gen. Sani Abacha, Major Hamza Al-Mustapha (rtd).

    For some reason that has not been made public, Dokubo found himself behind bars in the neighbouring Benin Republic where he stays on and off this past week. What many find mystifying is that the activist is not just some ordinary tourist but a major investor in that tiny country. He is said to own businesses and even a university.

    No doubt the man fancies himself as something of a pan-Africanist. But wouldn’t it be interesting to know whether he maintains this same impressive business profile in the region which economic conditions he once agitated over.

  • ‘Now you can go to court’

    ‘Now you can go to court’

    There are very few options for redress open to victims of electoral rape of the variety that just played out in the botched Anambra gubernatorial poll. Through the years people have come to see that lashing out in anger by torching the homes of opponents and offices of the bungling Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is counterproductive.

    That leaves just one route open to democrats: the courts. INEC officials have been quick to remind the All Progressives Congress (APC) and others calling for the cancellation of the election to take their agitation to the tribunal.

    Those who think things are going their way have also quickly endorsed the shambolic election as exceptional, cynically advising the aggrieved to “go to court.” On the face of it this sounds like reasonable advice. But it is cold comfort to the traumatised.

    We keep moaning about how expensive our electoral processes are, yet we never stop doing things that make them more costly. Justice anywhere in the world is not cheap. When candidates set out to retrieve their stolen mandate they know only the best and most senior legal minds would do. That battery of Senior Advocates hunched over court pews never comes cheap.

    Another of our singsongs is about how corruption has eaten up the society. But we remain blinded to how the incompetence of the electoral umpire creates a lucrative litigation industry and keeps the wheels of graft turning. How?

    Corrupt politicians who spend a fortune to win in the courts will recover their outlay from the system one way or the other. Even those who are not venal will look for creative ways of recouping their investment – like awarding themselves salaries and allowances that will make you eyes swim.

    Those who are quick to point the disappointed in the direction of the courts are not really interested in truth, fairness or justice. They are only concerned with sustaining their power grab by any means.

    They know that, in a sense, the court is like a cul-de-sac. It is like telling people to go to hell because, truly, wading through our judicial process can be hellish – sometimes cases take years to resolve.

    Even the introduction of the 180-day time limit for resolution of electoral disputes is no guarantee that a candidate will get justice. Occasionally mandates are restored but in lots of cases justice is not done. Technicalities and the sheer difficulty of putting together compelling evidence often get in the way.

    The judiciary is no better or worse than any arm of government or institution in this country. The same shortcomings you find in the executive and legislative branches are replicated in the justice system. If people say ministers and lawmakers are helping themselves to the nation’s wealth, judicial officers are equally being accused of corruption.

    In the end we are stuck with the judicial system that we have – its condition notwithstanding. Those who have grievances would have to take their chances and hope that their fortunes would be similar to those of Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers and Olusegun Mimiko in Ondo State.

    But should we continue to tolerate the crimes and incompetence of INEC just because we have the option of the courts? Why can’t we just conduct proper polls like Ghana, South Africa etc?

    Time and again it is the same complaint: irregularities, logistics chaos, late starts, dodgy voters’ register and the like. It was that way in 2003, 2007, 2011 and will be so in 2015. The Anambra election was an exercise in just one state. Even if the elections were held in a ward these same issues would be thrown up.

    It is curious that our people show so much competence and ability in other areas of life, but when it comes to organising elections even the best of us end up looking like dummies? We all know that conducting these polls is not as complicated as building a nuclear reactor. So what on earth is going on?

    On June 12, 1993, Nigerians voted in elections superintended by Professor Humphrey Nwosu’s defunct National Electoral Commission (NEC). Till date that remains a watershed in our history – hailed as about the freest and fairest polls ever conducted in these parts.

    They were successful largely because Nwosu introduced innovations that emphasised transparency. The Open Ballot System allowed people to see how candidates had performed. They readily accepted the outcomes because the results were declared before their very eyes.

    However, we know that no matter the arrangement you put in place, there are Nigerians who will always try to subvert things. In Anambra a senior INEC official has been undergoing interrogation for colluding with unnamed politicians to rig the polls.

    Such characters keep popping up election after election because they never get punished for their crimes. Until the prosecution of electoral cheats is well celebrated, and people realise that there’s a steep price to be paid they will keep trying to game the system.

    The other leg of this is our continued acceptance of the incompetence of electoral officials after every disastrous outing. Were some of these people to be working in the private sector they would have been fired long ago. You don’t compensate failure with long service award. Those who presided over the logistics disasters of the last two electoral cycles need to be shown the door for the health of the system.

    When we begin to pay a price for our actions our elections would be transformed.

  • Carey’s dirge

    Carey’s dirge

    Former Anglican Archbishop of Canterbury, Rt. Rev George Carey, recently bemoaned the fate of the Church of England over which he once presided. He predicted that unless something drastic was done it would be history within the next generation.

    His worry was that young people were deserting the CofE. That is bad enough, but perhaps he should be more concerned about death by compromise. A church that once took the Christian message to the far corners of the globe is now turning into a caricature bogged down with battles over gay clergymen.

    It is actually a very simple matter. The church in large parts of Europe and America is falling over itself to be more like the world. This is not a hostile takeover that is coming: it is the willing surrender by the church of its distinct, God-given identity. What a scandal!

  • Foreign accounts

    Efforts by Nigerian politicians to clean up their act took a bizarre turn this last week in the House of Representatives. A bill that proposes to allow everyone from the president to local government chairmen to operate foreign bank accounts scaled through second reading.

    Promoters of the bill actually believe it would enhance accountability and eliminate graft because something called the Code of Conduct Act requires public office holders to declare their assets before assuming and after leaving office.

    Nothing could be more ludicrous. Suggesting open ownership of foreign accounts would help is like saying a thief would park a red hot stolen car in his garage when he knows the police are on the prowl searching for that same automobile. Our politicians are too smart to warehouse loot in their own accounts. What are fronts for?

    Rather than waste time and taxpayers resources on this joke of a legislation lawmakers should investigate why countries that disallow officials from retaining such accounts continue to allow the law in their statute books.

  • Nwoye gets reality check

    Nwoye gets reality check

    Everyone but Tony Nwoye, the Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) candidate at the botched November 16, 2013 Anambra gubernatorial polls, knew his party was not keen on contesting. Until the last minute intervention of the Supreme Court even his candidacy was not on the cards.

    Had the courts not meddled in the PDP’s strategy of backing their ally, Gov. Peter Obi’s candidate and sitting out the governorship contest – in return for a similar favour for President Goodluck Jonathan come 2015, no one at Wadata Plaza, Abuja would have shed a tear.

    So it was not surprising that while Nwoye and other aggrieved candidates were calling for cancellation of the sham of an election, his party’s spokesman, Olisa Metuh, was hailing the same as the greatest thing since sliced bread.

    An angry Nwoye was forced to ask Metuh: “Who are you really working for? Which party do you actually belong to, PDP or APGA?” That is one question we’re certain will not get a response.

    But we sympathise with the naïve candidate who is only just coming to grips with the Machavellian ways of his party’s leaders. Back in 2007 the powers-that-be wanted anyone but Senator Ifeanyi Ararume as PDP candidate for the Imo governorship election.

    Instead of taking a hint and dropping out, he stubbornly pursued his claim to the Supreme Court. There he won a pyrrhic victory because the PDP promptly expelled him. The party sat out the polls, choosing instead to help install Ikedi Ohakim then of the Peoples Progressive Alliance (PPA). The rest, as they say, is history.

    Perhaps Nwoye would turn out to be one of those fellows who learn from history. Alternatively, as he contradicts the Abuja high command he should remember that PDP is the same yesterday, today and forever.

  • My convoy is longer than yours

    My convoy is longer than yours

    A convoy is a power accessory – a symbol of your status. Wherever you find people exercising power you would find a trail of expensive vehicles in tow. The longer your motorcade the more eminent you are.

    Nigerians didn’t invent the phenomenon. We’ve only done with it what we do with all things – gone to the very extreme and occasionally tipped overboard. This is the only country where everyone feels entitled to a 20-car motorcade: from the president to the private citizen convinced of his own importance.

    Convoys of the high and mighty are in the news again courtesy of the exploits of the crash-happy drivers of Kogi State Governor, Idris Wada’s motorcade. Last year they were involved in a well-reported pile-up from which Wada emerged with a broken leg. His aide-de-camp died on the spot.

    But in the world of convoy drivers one year is a long time to retain the memory of a tragedy. So just this last week the same bunch of kamikaze artists snuffed out the life of a one-time president of the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU), Professor Festus Iyayi, who was on his way to Kano for a meeting.

    Last Wednesday morning around the U-Turn axis of the Lagos-Abeokuta Expressway, another unidentified government convoy made up of seven vehicles careened into the expressway from a side road.

    A lorry hurtling down the road, in a bid to avoid the convoy, smashed into pedestrians – hitting 11 persons and leaving two dead. The heartless convoy drivers stopped a good distance from the carnage they had caused. But that was all they did. Gun-totting policemen simply peered at the horrified crowd and sped off after a few minutes.

    In the course of my job I have had a chance to understand the psychology of convoy drivers and guards. Their arrogance is breathtaking! As someone once said a big man’s maiguard is himself a big man!

    In the course of ferrying their principal about these drivers and policemen view other road users as lesser beings to be run off the road. Ostensibly they act in this manner to check any security threat to the VIPs they are carrying.

    In reality what they exhibit is simply the anti-democratic temper reigning in the land. It is the mindset the causes us to elevate public office holders to deities to be worshipped. It is the reason a security agent would think nothing of brutalising a TV cameraman for getting too close to the dignitary he’s covering.

    I have heard some of the drivers brag about how fast they can go and the risky maneuvers they have tried. I have seen them almost crash very expensive automobiles in a dispute over which car should be next to the vehicle carrying their principal.

    The outrageous behavior of these drivers has been going on for ages. Although the Iyayi killing appears like the tipping point, things may not really change unless concrete action is taken to reform the way government officials travel.

    The first step is asking hard questions. Are convoy drivers no longer subject to Nigerian traffic laws just because they are ferrying VIPs?

    In 2005, a chauffeur and two police officers driving then New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark to watch a match involving the country’s rugby team, the All Blacks, were prosecuted for dangerous driving and fined.

    Clark’s three-vehicle convoy had been travelling as fast as 170 kmh, but the prime minister who was a backseat passenger in one of the cars said she was too engrossed reading some paperwork she had no idea how fast they had been travelling.

    It would be interesting to know how many Nigerian killer convoy drivers have faced prosecution in the last decade. Actually, those who drive in vehicles with government number plates, or those who wear uniforms, feel the laws don’t apply to them.

    In instances where there are fatalities the lunatic driver would no doubt be liable being the one operating the vehicle at that point. But there’s a sense in which his boss who has winked at his speeding bears some moral responsibility.

    Over and again people have asked whether convoys have to travel at such dangerous speed. One rationalisation is the need to get bosses to different engagements quickly. An appropriate riposte is that with planning even the busiest individual can leave in good time to keep appointments.

    The late British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher once said that she got to her engagements a good 15 minutes before time. If she came too early she would drive round the block to while away time. But come the hour she’ll be knocking on your door. If our big men can learn to keep time there will be no need for convoys to turn our roads to race tracks.

    The other excuse I have heard is security. The standard line is that it is hard to aim at a moving target. The sense that any convoy – no matter how fleet – is a guarantee of safety is overstretched. Innumerable leaders and political figures have met their end in moving motorcades. One-time United States President John F. Kennedy was shot as he drove through the street in an open car.

    Even if movement is meant to thwart the hidden sniper, I suggest that any governor or minister who allows his convoy drivers to move about at breakneck speed has actually handed the steering wheel to an assassin. Kogi Governor Wada escaped with a broken leg last year; he could have suffered the same fate as his ADC.

    Someone said most VIPs are too busy with more important matters than worrying about the management of motorcades. This is supposedly the forte of security and protocol staff. I once heard a governor blithely declare that he was at the mercy of these officials who determine his goings and comings.

    Conversely I know of another governor who takes an interest in such things so much so that he instructed his motorcade not to travel faster than a certain speed within city limits. After one crazy stunt by one of the drivers, he directed his aide-de-camp to send the whole bunch to driving school.

    Any official who surrenders these things to some convoy commander without setting out broad guidelines is playing Russian roulette with his life.

    I also believe that you can get a glimpse of a man’s character by the way his motorcade conducts itself. Wild driving and lack of consideration for other citizens as road users points to a principal who lacks discipline, is inconsiderate and detached from the real world. If he doesn’t approve he would find such over-the-top conduct grating and take action.

    Coming to costs, the size of most government convoys shows how wasteful we are. People are quick to point to the size of the convoy of the US president. America’s resources can pay for the flights of fancy of their highest office holder. Can we fund ours? Even in the US there are regular stories about the size of Barack Obama’s motorcades – meaning the magnitude and expense remain issues of debate in a country used to such gargantuan motorcades.

    But the US shouldn’t be the only example. Why are people not asking how many cars are in the convoy of the British, Canadian or Swedish Prime Ministers? David Cameron’s car as PM moves about escorted by a lone outrider even in an age when the UK has become a major target for terrorists.

    In reality these motorcades have little or nothing to do with the quality of governance. Is Britain less efficiently run because the Prime Minister’s entire vehicular train is just two cars and a motorcycle? According to the Wikipedia entry the Nigerian President’s entourage consists of “30 cars and ten escort motorcycles, along with police cars and six Mercedes S-550 of SSS surrounding the president’s car.” In spite of this imperial cavalcade the country is such a mess.

    Let’s get real! It’s time people took another look at these monstrosities giving office holders a bad name.

  • Nigeria Police: Pulling down an institution

    Nigeria Police: Pulling down an institution

    It is now obvious that the most important ‘crime-fighting’ assignment confronting the Nigerian Police is frustrating everything associated with the so-called ‘New Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).’ Running a close second is hounding opponents of President Goodluck Jonathan and his administration.

    The force has devoted itself to these tasks with uncommon efficiency. They have perfect intelligence about where heady G-7 governors would pop up next, and would storm the venue in Armoured Personnel Carriers ready to crush those ‘heating up the polity.’

    When they are not chasing rebellious PDP governors through the states our fearless police tear-gas elements of the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU), to prevent them from taking to the streets.

    Being true defenders of the people’s right to express themselves, the police gladly look the other way when a rival group of protesters denouncing ASUU walks down the same street.

    In the latest display of their commitment to enforce orderliness, the Inspector-General of Police, Mohammed Abubakar, has banned all gatherings, receptions and carnivals at airports nationwide. This, of course, is the force’s response to the dramatic four-kilometer march to Port Harcourt airport by Governor Rotimi Amaechi and his supporters. The facility had earlier been shut to prevent them from gathering to receive the national leadership of the All Peoples Congress (APC) during the week.

    Frankly, if the police could deploy their new-found zeal for cracking down on government’s political foes to tackling armed robbers and kidnappers the crime rate would crash to near zero.

    Recently, the opposition Progressive Governors Forum (PGF) described them as “the armed wing of the PDP.” You may dismiss this as the vituperations of partisans, but it also succinctly describes what the force is turning into.

    Over the years different administrations have abused the police – using them as tools for pushing their petty agendas. But the manipulation of this national institution by the current administration is lowering the force to a despicable new low.

    Mouthing clichés about “global best practices” in the use of airports doesn’t hide the fact that the police have chosen to insert themselves deeper into the mud-fight between the political elite – hiding under law enforcement.

    The remit announced by Abubakar is broad enough for any mischief-maker to abuse. Will a group of associates coming together to receive a VIP qualify for the mandatory volley of tear gas? You would have expected the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN) to take the lead in giving this sort of directive. But no the overzealous police have to lunge in with all the elegance of an elephant.

    It was not too long ago that dance troops and flag-waving supporters were swarming all over Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja to welcome First Lady, Patience Jonathan, from her overseas medical trip. On numerous occasions tumultuous crowds have received our victorious football teams at airports. Those raucous receptions were not hazardous to national security back then.

    But in today’s Nigeria any gathering of the “wrong set of persons” – whether at airports or in the recesses of governors’ lodges – becomes a conspiracy.

    Those in command positions who have made themselves agents for shrinking our freedoms should remember that come the day of accounting the argument that they were merely obeying orders wouldn’t hold water. Their unconstitutional actions will be their legacy as they have nothing significant to report on the crime-fighting front.

    In their desperation to please the current occupants of Aso Villa, they forget that their real loyalty should be to the constitution – not to individuals who can vacate those powerful positions tomorrow.

    Being pliant tools in the hands of those controlling the levers of state might seem like the way things are done around here, but people should note that what they are actually doing is destroying an institution that should serve all – whether you are in power and or opposition.

    This deliberate act of attrition by those who ought to build up the organisation is a crime. It is one of the reasons the growth of our democracy will remain stunted. With the force reeking of the sordid smell of partisanship, it is difficult to see how political parties other than the one in power will accept the police as impartial arbiters as we draw closer to the 2015 electoral battles.

    But more than anything, the sorry state of our police speaks to the pedestrian quality of our political leadership. It comes down to whether you are a civilian with despotic traits or a visionary statesman.

    Those who are not small-minded understand that the police should be used to uphold freedoms and the constitution. The parochial would see the force as another tool for entrenching themselves in power and brutalising those who disagree with their ambitions.

    That is what separates the likes of Nelson Mandela, Thabo Mbeki, John Kuffour from the Robert Mugabes and Paul Biyas of this content. A country’s police force cannot be more elevated than those who control it. The way we’re abusing ours shows the leadership column into which our current masters fall.

    Lastly, the never-ending misuse of the force by successive rulers is the best argument for its reform. The only way to salvage anything from this ruin of an institution is to decentralise it and bury the Frankenstein monster that the national police have become.

  • Rage of the rapists

    Rage of the rapists

    Nigerians have largely been silent of something very sinister unfolding all around the country. No thanks to the never-ending twists in the reality show that the N225 million armoured car purchase scandal has become.

    It is the rage of the libidinous. Nothing and nobody is too young or old to be penetrated against their will. The near total absence of outrage over the daily reports of appalling sexual crimes is indicative of how brutalised and unfeeling we have become. We are now so desensitised that the things that ought to shock us we now take in our stride.

    Senators gave a nodding acknowledgment the other day that something terrible was going on that needs to be addressed. They were hopping mad over reports of the rape last week of a two year old girl, Chinwendu Onwudiwe, by a police corporal in Mararaba, Nasarawa State, near Abuja.

    Leading the chorus of outrage was Senator Helen Esuene (Akwa Ibom South) who pointed out sundry ways in which cruelty was being visited on babies. They were being kidnapped, abused and sold as commodities she said.

    The other day a 50-year old ‘pastor’ – and I used the word advisedly as these days all sorts of characters parade themselves as ‘pastors’ – was arraigned for allegedly raping three school pupils at Mpape, Abuja.

    The suspected rapist who is now standing trial before a Federal Capital Territory (FCT) High Court is supposedly the overseer of a church and proprietor of school where the victims were students. The prosecutor told the court that this was not a case of a man succumbing to a moment of weakness, rather the accused violated the two seven-year-olds and the nine-year-old pupil at different times when they supposedly in the school learning.

    If what the Abuja clergyman did is shocking, what transpired between two minors in Lagos is downright disturbing. A 14-year old boy has just been arrested for raping a nine-year-old girl to death! The deceased was said to have been assaulted over five times by her sex-crazed assailant in the Ikorodu area of the state.

    Sometime last year Enugu State Governor, Sullivan Chime, was forced to address the press following shocking reports of young men in the Opi community of the state gang-raping women whose ages ranged from 60 to 80.

    In the last few months litanies of cases of sexual violence have inundated the media. It’s as if a dam burst and suddenly all these outrages were coming out. We should be especially troubled because many rape cases go unreported as victims want to suffer in silence and avoid the stigma. This implies that the problem is deeper than we can imagine.

    No type of rape is excusable – whether it involves a minor or two adults. But I am particularly troubled when I read of grown men forcing themselves on two-year olds. What on earth could be responsible for this? How on earth did we come to this point?

    All around us the most despicable things are happening. People are kidnapping their fellow human beings and receiving a ransom before setting them free. In some cases they kill the hapless victims even after getting paid.

    People are killing their fellows with a view to using them in money-making rituals. We live in the age of the internet and digital television and yet in so many ways our people are still being seduced by superstitious illogic.

    Something is badly broken in this society and until we fix it nothing will work in Nigeria. We can call a thousand national conferences they will come to nothing if we don’t sort out the basic things.

    At the root of what is unfolding now is the fact that we no longer hold anything dear. Nothing is sacred, trust has disappeared. We no longer have a concept of what is right or wrong. You see it every day on the streets. The man who sits patiently in his car waiting for the light to turn soon begins to question his sanity when he sees everyone else jumping the light, or driving against traffic.

    We have lost every sense of the shameful and dishonourable. That is why two people in high office can shake hands on deal only for one party to repudiate it without batting an eyelid.

    In a society where parents actively fund the participation of their children in examination malpractices, it is no surprise that 40-year olds are sating themselves on babies.

    In some other society it could be argued that these sordid sexual crimes are the direct result of an absence of moral teaching. That cannot be said about this country. The nation is virtually sagging under the weight of churches and mosques. The airwaves are saturated with religious noise but very little spirituality. There is so much spouting of that which is Godly, while clearly the fear of God has taken flight in their lives of those generating the cacophony.

    We cannot deny that exposure to the internet and modern technology exposes a society to all sorts of influences like pornography that brings out the worst in both young and old. Still, the insidious influence of technology does not tell the whole story. It is a cocktail of things that have done us in.

    If ever there was a candidate for shock therapy it is Nigeria. We need to be jolted back to our senses. Psychologists and sociologists can study the unfolding phenomenon and provide more scientific and coherent explanations as to what rape is on the increase. But we don’t need anyone to tell us that when adults are running around violating babies, that society’s moral sickness has plumbed new depths.

    What is to be done? The change we hanker after is not going to come from outer space. Special breeds of pure aliens are not going to descend on Abuja to rescue us from the dissolute crew presently in charge. We must still look to the few who retain some modicum of sanity among the elite to lead that rebirth.

    A good place to start is by making people understand that when they go off the rail, they will pay a steep price. A major difference between Nigeria and some other countries is their willingness to enforce their laws. Their citizens are human just like us – subject to the same passions and weaknesses. But the vast majority of them know that there are certain lines that cannot be crossed. Here, all those lines have become blurred.

  • Nigeria’s finances, Okonjo-Iweala and governors

    Nigeria’s finances, Okonjo-Iweala and governors

    A feel for Coordinating Minister-in-Charge of the Economy and Minister of Finance, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. In her first innings managing the nation’s purse under former President Olusegun Obasanjo, comments about her performance were largely laudatory – even fawning.

    She came to her role preceded by impressive career achievements that had seen her function at the very top of World Bank management. Her reputation was burnished no end when she led the negotiations that saw Nigeria exiting her debt obligations to the Paris Club.

    It was no surprise therefore that President Goodluck Jonathan would scurry back to her doorstep whilst searching for a steady hand to run things after his 2011 general election victory.

    A little over two years after slipping almost seamlessly into her old role, the magician’s aura has worn off a bit. Not even the enhancement of her portfolio and powers by making her some sort of super-minister has shielded her from the flak triggered by frustration over a less-than-dramatic turnaround in Nigeria’s economic fortunes.

    Until now, she was one of the few government officials whose personal achievements and comportment spared them the sort of vicious attacks reserved for the President and some of her cabinet colleagues. Clearly, being the butt of strident criticism is not an experience she has found amusing – judging by some of her reactions.

    I suspect that the most painful would have been remarks questioning her ability to continue as Finance Minister. The Nigeria Governors Forum (NGF) demanded she quit if could no longer manage the economy in a way that ensures that obligations to states were met. Although she was quick to dismiss the call, ever since it has been a steady dripping of bad economic news in a manner akin to Chinese water torture.

    Finance Commissioners who gather in Abuja for Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) meetings have cried out in alarm when they received less than they expected. If this was a one-off incident it might have been easy to dismiss. Unfortunately, with billions still to be paid to the states many have alleged that the nation was broke!

    That is a very strong claim to make. It is particularly embarrassing if you happen to be the one superintending things because it speaks to you your ability to manage the country’s affairs. Okonjo-Iweala obviously understands this and has launched a robust defence – insisting that rather than being broke, what we are experiencing was just a little cash flow crisis.

    Appearing before a special Senate committee to defend the performance of the 2012 budget she said: “The country is absolutely not broke. And I want to repeat that again, because there are those who would want to push that idea. The country is not broke, (though) the country may have cash flow problems from time to time. That is normal and is to be expected because a person may be very wealthy, he may have a lot of assets but at a particular point in time the stream of income may delay.

    “You are running a business, you can be assets rich therefore you cannot be broke but you may have a temporary month when the flow is not as it should be because the price of that product may be lower. The time for you to collect money from that product may take a little longer because you extended credit to people by selling to them and then telling them you will collect later. So, sometimes there may be temporary cash flow issues, but the country broke? The answer is no.”

    Reading through the minister’s comments I was forced to review my understanding of the meaning of the word ‘broke.’ I understand that a diplomat, or an economist may explain everyday concepts in ways different from which laymen may put them, still all the dictionaries I consulted distilled the word to mean a ‘lack of funds.’

    Just this past week Edo State Governor Adams Oshiomhole suggested that rather than being a storm in a tiny tea cup, the inability of the Federal Government to meet its financial obligations to states was potentially disastrous.

    “I don’t know if the federal government is broke but I know there is serious crisis and it is unprecedented in the history of this country. For the first time since 1999, allocations can no longer come as at when due to states. I have been involved in trying to understand what the reasons are and I have not seen anything yet. Whether we use the word broke or you deny the word broke, the truth is that there is financial crisis in Nigeria which has very serious national security implications,” he said.

    In terms not too different from this, Oshiomhole’s Kwara counterpart, Abdulfatah Ahmed, in a recent interview took the position that Nigeria’s finances were in dire straits.

    Statistics may suggest that the economy is growing at a particular rate, and that Nigeria is about to overtake South Africa, or that in this country investors get the highest return on investment – making it a preferred destination for foreign direct investment.

    But pretty figures are one thing and everyday reality a different matter entirely. There’s no way to dress up the fact that in an economy supposedly doing so well, government cannot meet its obligations. In truth some states may be unable to pay salaries soon because they depend largely on the monthly federal cheque.

    You may dismiss them as indolent for not looking at other ways to boost their earnings to make up for whatever shortfall may occur at the Abuja end, still the constitution entitles them to the handout which the federal government has been unable to deliver.

    The Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) strike continues with no end in sight. The Finance Minister has already said Nigeria does not have the money to pay what it agreed with the lecturers. Until that accord is renegotiated, this is another obligation which the government cannot meet.

    Okonjo-Iweala spoke to the Senate like an economist – talking in terms of how a man can be rich in assets and cash poor. Unfortunately, even the value of the assets that we set such store by keep diminishing by the day.

    More countries in Africa are discovering oil, the United States – one of our prime markets is celebrating shale oil. With sophisticated thieves helping themselves to huge amounts of crude in the Niger Delta, not only are we losing what should have accrued directly to the nation, external markets are also shrinking as some buyers are not too concerned about the origin of the crude they are buying.

    Very soon the markets may whisper very loudly to us that our so-called assets are not worth what they used to be. It’s time to face up to the fact that technically speaking, we may not be broke, but Nigeria is in dire straits financially. Accepting that diagnosis will be the first step towards recovery: continued denial will not make the next FAAC meeting more pleasant.

  • APC and the PDP refugees

    APC and the PDP refugees

    Therever there is war, you’ll find a steady stream of refugees fleeing the conflict zone. No surprise then that the infighting within the ruling Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) threatens to unleash a flood of displaced politicians seeking refuge with whatever resembles a credible alternative platform.

    In the real world playing host to refugees can be nightmarish for whoever is at the receiving end. Sometimes communities and countries fearful that the newly homeless could overwhelm them have been known to slam the door in the faces of the desperate rabble. But no such misery awaits Nigeria’s burgeoning breed of political flotsam.

    Unlike the wretched of the earth to be found in war zones from Syria to Afghanistan, those on the verge of walking out of, or being kicked out of the PDP, can look forward to a warm embrace from a string of opposition parties.

    A few days ago the All Progressives Congress (APC) announced that not only was it willing to accommodate the disaffected PDP members, it mandated its own governors to woo their colleagues.

    The newly-registered Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) was ecstatic in hailing the rebellion on the very day it played out on Eagle Square, Abuja. It, too, would gladly welcome the G7 in its ranks.

    That the disgruntled PDP governors have so many suitors is understandable. The ability of incumbents to swing political fortunes in whatever direction they decide is far more assured at state level than at national level.

    Indeed, it is the recognition of that gubernatorial influence which triggered the desperate, but ultimately shambolic attempt to install a pliant person who will dance to the presidency’s tune as head of the Nigeria Governors Forum (NGF).

    As members of the New PDP have pointed out to their adversaries on National Chairman, Bamanga Tukur’s side, President Goodluck Jonathan, cannot win the 2015 elections without them. Operating as a united team, the ruling party – its diabolical performance in office notwithstanding – still has a chance of clinging to power courtesy of Nigerian-style “free and fair” elections.

    If the rebellion turns out to be irreversible and the New PDP joins forces with the likes of APC and others, that coalition stands a good chance of seizing power. That stark reality is not lost on analysts within the ruling party. It is also the greatest incentive for Jonathan and his people to quickly cut a deal with the troublemakers and keep the unraveling ‘largest party in Africa’ in what approximates one piece.

    Forget the posturing, rumours and finger-pointing: just look at the speed with which Jonathan has rallied to prevent the Abubakar Kawu Baraje faction from slipping through his fingers. From the day of the disastrous convention till now, an unending string of meetings have been holding.

    Even more significant is the fact that the band of rebels for whom a traffic jam of suitors has formed, have been attending the negotiations faithfully. That is not the sort of conduct you would expect from people who have blown up the bridge behind them.

    Everything that has been coming out of those meetings indicates that the president and his people will capitulate and give in to the demands of the rebels. But…

    The sticking point remains whether Jonathan should run in 2015 or not. On the basis of constitutionality it is impossible to bar the president from putting himself forward. But much has been made of some 2011 agreement in which the incumbent purportedly committed himself to serving just one term in exchange for getting northern support to breach existing zoning arrangements.

    All pointers now are that even if such an agreement exists in written form with thumbprints, signatures and legal seal, they will be repudiated by Jonathan. There’s been a lot of huffing and puffing on the part of northern figures over the breaching of that accord.

    We will soon know if such talk is just a negotiating stance or whether it has become a point of principle and deal breaker. Still, we must remind ourselves of the words of one-time German Chancellor, Otto von Bismarck who defined politics as the art of the possible.

    It is easy to envisage Jonathan throwing Tukur under the bus, restoring control of party structures to governors in states which have been deliberately factionalised as part of the politics of 2015. The heat and dust generated so far notwithstanding, it will be no big thing to lift the suspension placed on Rivers State Governor, Rotimi Amaechi.

    But then negotiations are give and take. Jonathan can’t be doing all the giving. What does he get in return? Stranger things have happened before in politics; but I will not be shocked if after all the noise, those on the northern flank who have been resisting, surrender to Jonathan’s desire to run for a second term. What will be left will be selling the bitter pill to the party’s supporters in the region.

    Caution! Despite its very public mud fight, the ruling party is not dead. It still holds the presidency and all the advantages of incumbency. It controls security agencies and has shown that it will not shy away from dragging the Nigeria Police into its partisan battles. More importantly, its leading lights will do whatever is necessary to hang onto power – including swallowing healthy helpings of humble pie.

    I am amazed therefore at the naiveté of commentators who take it for granted that reconciliation between the rebels and the Tukur-controlled party leadership is foreclosed, and that the PDP as we knew it is dead and buried. It reminds me of that quote by the famous American writer, Mark Twain: “Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.”

    It would be disastrous for any party or groups of parties to base their short or long term plans for capturing power at the center on the help of PDP decampees. The question such strategists should ask themselves is what if the expected split never materialises?

    Even if the break with the Baraje faction is irrevocable, depend on it that the rump of the party that is left will not go down without a fight. That desperation to survive will make the 2015 polls potentially the most bloody and contentious Nigeria will witness since independence.

    After 14 years most Nigerians have a good idea of what PDP has to offer and given a chance they will deliver a damning verdict at the polls.

    That is why instead of wasting time gloating over the travails of the ruling party, or dreaming that the behemoth will crumble in such a fashion that it will no longer be a credible vehicle for capturing federal power, all serious opposition parties should be defining the alternative they offer in ways that will excite voters, and ensure apathy does not hand the ruling party victory against the run of play.

    We also know that in large parts of this country, ballots count for nothing. In many inaccessible areas votes are simply written – producing voting day numbers that would have embarrassed the likes of Saddam Hussein. The opposition should focus on developing ideas to checkmate the rigging we all know happens, but can do nothing about.

    Unless the opposition plans to defeat a full-strength PDP, it could be disappointed again as the monster recovers from its self-inflicted injuries to entrench itself for its self-proclaimed 60-year hegemony.