The Nation Newspaper

Category: Festus Eriye

  • How bad is Nigeria?

    How bad is Nigeria?

    Two years ago, I found myself playing host to in-laws who came visiting from England with three children who had never been to Nigeria. Overfed with a diet of bad news about the country they were travelling to, they were prepared for the worst. I observed with amusement how they warily scanned their surroundings – perhaps expecting Tarzan to spring from the bushes without warning.

    I burst out laughing when one of the teenagers exclaimed: ‘Look! They even have buses,’ on sighting a Lagos BRT bus. On the drive home, they were sufficiently impressed with their environment that they confessed Nigeria wasn’t the hell on earth that they had been led to believe it was.

    For the next couple of weeks they would have the adventure of their young lives, doing simple things they couldn’t do in the concrete jungle where they lived. Things as mundane as climbing trees, chasing down lizards in the compound, visiting a local market to buy a live goat that would become a pet for them for over a week. When it was time to terminate the goat, they wept like they had lost a brother.

    These adventures included a visit to Ekiti where their granny and uncles made them learn how to pound yam – an exercise they took to with gusto. All these experiences they kept sharing on live feeds with their friends in England. They left Nigeria vowing to return very soon. Such was their enjoyment of a country many choose to dismiss.

    Denigrating the country is a pastime that has lasted for as long as it has existed as an independent country. Hyper criticism is the default mode for most Nigerians. That’s understandable because there’s so much to criticise – everything from failure of governance, lack of infrastructure, widespread poverty to extreme corruption. Whatever hopes the citizenry had about their new country in 1960, has been dashed over and again as the brief democratic experiment soon collapsed under the weight of internal contradictions – resulting in over three decades of military rule. Those who came promising to make Nigeria better often left it plumbing new depths of despair. Little wonder our favourite national sport is self pity and hate.

    While much of the criticism is deserved, a lot of it is something regurgitated by rote. A lot of Nigerians in the Diaspora are transfixed by their daily dose of bad news on social media, that they sternly warn those foolhardy enough to try, not to visit home if they loved themselves. A simple violent robbery incident or minor terror attack is blown up as though the entire country is on fire. Many are suspicious when you offer a narrative different from what they have come to believe.

    The country’s terrible image flows largely from what we say about ourselves. Over time I have come to see that foreign visitors and observers are often less harsh about the state our country than we are. When the ordinary South African citizen mock Nigeria as ‘a generator nation’, it’s down to our moaning over the years about failings in the area of electricity generation and distribution.

    When others ridicule us as scam artists and ritual killers, there is sufficient ammunition to do so, but it’s also down to sensationalism on social media and in Nollywood. The damage caused by movies that portray the country as nothing more than a haven for witchcraft and voodoo priests would take a lifetime to undo.

    Read Also: Tinubu approves N80 billion for Alau Dam reconstruction

    It is one thing when you are being hard on yourselves at home, it’s a different kettle of fish when the extreme criticism is internationalised by influential figures who, in so doing, reinforce existing negative impressions. In November 2024, afrobeats star Davido who hasn’t been shy to dip his feet into political waters ever since his uncle indicated interest in the governorship of Osun State, had on a visit to the United States warned his compatriots who had made their escape from the continent, not to make the mistake of returning because there was nothing good to report. His counsel was also directed at African-Americans who were showing increasing interest in goings-on on the continent.

    Speaking on the Big Homies House podcast, he said the Nigerian economy was in shambles and there were systemic issues affecting African countries. “It’s not cool back home,” he said.

    Not to be outdone, the new leader of the British Conservative Party, Kemi Badenoch, spent her first months in the position launching acidic attacks on her country of origin. From talking of how her brother’s shoes were allegedly pinched by the police, to bluntly warning that governments here destroy lives, she’s been a one-woman wrecking ball hammering away at the country’s already battered image.

    Many have been scratching their heads trying to make sense of her strategy given that Nigeria’s condition is unlikely to be a major concern of British voters at the next poll. Those who would have her pause in her desperate bid to be more English than King Charles, point to the fact that her predecessor as Tory Leader, Rishi Sunak, never scorned his Indian heritage the was she was done her own roots.

    There’s sufficient evidence that putting down her country of origin isn’t exactly helping her drive to become Britain’s first black female Prime Minister. A YouGov poll published late last year showed that only 32% of Tory voters felt she would be a good PM. Even more galling is that fact 24% of her party members felt that the extreme right wing politician, Nigel Farage of Reform UK, would do a better job.

    The foregoing is not to suggest that all is perfectly well with the country. Far from it! We’ve all acknowledged that we are in the midst of unprecedented economic challenges. But there’s no issue or failing in this country that’s unique to her. It is disappointing when you imagine that a country with so much potential could do a better job. Still, it isn’t sufficient reason for the amount of self hate Nigerians indulge in.

    In their push for power opposition politicians would magnify the economic challenges and claim civil liberties are under organised assault worse than in days of junta rule. Unfortunately, almost all their leading lights have been part of government at different levels in the last 30 years and had ample opportunities to make a difference. They didn’t. This makes their posturing as would-be saviours highly suspect.

    In 2022, Nigeria’s economy was ranked largest in Africa. Today, it is fourth behind the likes of Egypt, South Africa and Algeria. Despite continuing challenges there are signs of stabilisation and recovery on the back of ongoing reforms. Growth rate is expected to be between 3% and 4.17% depending on source of statistics. The African Development Bank Group projects 3.4% in 2025, while the Central Bank expects it to be as high as 4.17%.

    The government promises to drive down inflation from the current 34% to a more manageable 15%. Many analysts think this is optimistic. Still, it would welcome relief for most families who have seen their pay cheques bringing in less goods home month after month.

    The tremendous developments in the oil and gas sector, with the rise of Dangote Refinery, the resurrection of a couple of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) owned refineries and other lesser facilities, has transformed the country from a net importer of petroleum products to an exporter with potentially disruptive effect on European and other markets.

    Poverty isn’t going to disappear overnight. Boko Haram attacks in the Northeast, banditry in the Northwest or secessionist violence in the Southeast would continue to make headlines from time to time. But the charitable would acknowledge there’s a more stable situation with regard to insecurity which is far cry from the situation two or three years when mass abductions were almost a weekly occurrence.

    Nigeria may have these issues but let’s not forget that there are countries on the African continent which up till date have been carved by militias and where ethnic conflicts have raged unabated for decades. It may have her unique struggles but it doesn’t have to worry about that uniquely American phenomenon of gunmen walking into school yards and malls on mass killing sprees.

    This is a country on the mend that deserves a breather from unrelenting and unreasonable bashing.

  • That Abuja pity party

    That Abuja pity party

    Nigeria’s democracy is gravely imperilled if we are to believe  a motley collection of politicians who gathered at a conference in Abuja a couple of days ago, to discuss governance and the state of the nation.

    The dramatis personae included former Vice President Atiku Abubakar who headed the failed People’s Democratic Party (PDP) ticket at the 2023 general elections. Rotimi Amaechi who fought unsuccessfully to be the All Progressives Congress (APC) flag bearer had a few choice words to offer. Former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, was not to be outdone in his dark prognosis about where we are headed under the current administration.

    It is important to state early that all these gentlemen have axes to grind with the Bola Tinubu administration and whatever may be coming from them as criticism definitely had a tinge of bitterness. Atiku, for instance, fought his presidential loss to the Supreme Court and even at the final bus stop refused to accept defeat. His interactions with the government since then have been reduced to hurling of insults.

    On Monday, he painted the picture of opposition parties under siege and made the very grave claim that many were being paid N50 million monthly by the government to compromise them. He didn’t offer any evidence to back his claims.

    Amaechi has never hidden his contempt for the current incumbent, believing he would have made a better president. To make a bad situation worse , the APC in his home state of Rivers has been split right down the middle with his former appointee and ally turned foe, Tony Okocha, now recognised as leader by the national headquarters. This is a branch of the ruling party where the former Transport Minister once reigned as lord and master. He clearly feels like he’s been targeted for political extermination and has in return indicated his hostility towards the new powers in town through his body language and comments.

    At the Abuja conference he once again encouraged Nigerians to grab power by fighting for it, seeing as no one was going to hand it to them on a platter. Three months ago, in an ABN TV interview, he wondered why Nigerians were not more vocal in questioning the tough economic conditions in the country. He said he expected the youths to storm the streets in protest against the high cost of living.

    He said: “I’m angry with the citizens. I have said it several times. You can see a group of people stealing your money, impoverishing you, you cannot buy fuel and anything.

    The people should be angry. There should be protests. Not even protests against anybody but against the politicians that ‘we won’t vote’.

    “That is what people should be saying. The rate of hunger now… if people like us cannot afford diesel, you can imagine what is happening to those who do not have children like us.”

    The interesting thing about Amaechi is that despite living in internal exile in APC he has refused to quit the party. It is clear, however, that his body may remain for strategic reasons, his spirit has long departed.

    It is the same with former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, who in the push to the APC convention emerged as one of the key Northern backers of Tinubu. Indeed, there was the much-publicised bromance between the twosome which culminated with the then candidate insisting on him joining the federal government to be formed.

    Read Also: Nigerians will soon reap benefits of economic policies – Shettima assures

    As a sign of his contribution to the success of the party, he was rewarded politically with Tinubu backing the emergence of his candidate, Tajudeen Abbas, as Speaker of the House of Representatives – much to the anger of some of the president’s North Central allies in the House.

    The icing on the cake was supposed to be a seat in the cabinet until things went awry. Much mystery shrouds what went wrong to torpedo the surefire ministerial appointment. But from that moment on, the onetime ally turned into a pesky foe, stirring the waters from time to time with snarky comments against the government and ruling party. When he’s not launching the attacks directly, his surrogate and onetime APC National Working Council (NWC) member, Salihu Lukman, is doing the honours.

    Two days ago El-Rufai didn’t disappoint. From accusing the administration of acting like military dictators, to insinuating that there was a deliberate scheme to hobble all opposition parties, to deriding party delegates as illiterates and those they threw up in leadership positions as cunning, he was firing on all cylinders – not caring who was cut down in the hail of verbal fire.

    Not even the spokespersons of the leading opposition parties could have done a better job. Still, he insists he remains an APC member. But everything about him paints the picture of someone who would rather be elsewhere.

    While no one would suggest that democracy is perfect in today’s Nigeria, it is an exaggeration to say that it is in danger of extinction. Recent state elections have shown a marked improvement on past ones. Institutions like the National Assembly are functioning properly. Military leaders have reiterated over and again their subordination to civilian and constitutional authority.

    The government at the centre isn’t using federal might to oppress states whose leaders it has political differences with. Rather, it has been willing to allow the judiciary resolve these differences. Clear examples are the ongoing political disputes in Rivers and Plateau States. The press remains relatively free and vocal. Social media is awash with critical comments and the government has resisted the temptation to inhibit that space.

    So, rather than our system of government being on the brink of collapse, it appears to like the major protagonists at the Abuja conference were mostly singing dirges over their increasingly endangered political careers. Atiku admitted as much by warning his audience that none of them could wrest power from the incumbent on their own. The worry for him is that while this sounds like a reasonable proposition his would-be confederates don’t appear too enamoured.

    One of Nigeria’s worst kept secrets is the ongoing soul searching by the opposition on how best to win power at the next polls.

    Speaking at the Abuja conference, Atiku argued: “Opposition parties must realise that it is extremely difficult to dislodge a governing party, however unpopular it may be and however fed up the people may be with it.

    “Coalition-building and outright mergers are critical for building the capacity of the opposition to achieve that goal.  Our own history and examples from other countries prove that.”

    The foregoing reference to our recent history has to do with the formation of the APC which against all odds uprooted the entrenched PDP administration of President Goodluck Jonathan. That experiment succeed largely because there was conviction on the part of major players that it was the only way to go.

    Those who are hoping to replicate the success of that experiment are already falling at the very first hurdle – agreement on common purpose. The leader of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso, former governor of Kano State, has distanced himself from any proposed mergers and fusion, accusing those behind the move of hypocrisy.

    At same event where Atiku spoke, former Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, warned he would not endorse any coalition if the motive is restricted to mere power grabbing. He stressed: “For me, what is important is about the country. We must talk about the future of Nigeria. We abandoned the country and all we talk about now is power grabbing.

    “I am not interested in any coalition for the purpose of taking power. It is about discussing Nigeria, how we care about securing Nigeria, about the common people and their education. That is the most important thing in Nigeria for now.”

    In saying this he makes a fundamental error of thinking that a political party is anything other than devoted to getting power. That’s why many still refer to the APC as special purpose vehicle (SPV) for overthrowing the PDP. You can talk about how to integrate the issues that matters to you into a common platform, but in the end everything boils down to grabbing power.

    Sometimes, I am confused as to whether Obi wants to run for political office or sainthood. His rhetoric half the time makes power sound like a dirty word. He wants to  be in governance but a few days ago was making those in government look like a constellation of demons.

    He declared that there were more ‘yahoo boys’ in government than outside. If that was his convoluted way of saying there’s deep rooted corruption in our public service he wasn’t saying anything new. That comment could only have been made to attract more social media likes. What would been significant is if he shared with us a bit about what he intends to about this army of fraudsters if he ever got into power.

    Whilst still languishing in the British opposition wilderness Tony Blair once warned his Labour Party colleagues that no matter how noble their policies were, they wouldn’t be able do anything about them until they found a way to get into office. Up to that point a succession of Labour leaders had foundered in their bid to topple the Conservatives largely because of the perception of the party as being too leftist.

    So, Blair did everything he could to pull his party to a more centrist position; including rebranding it as New Labour. He even ensured that a provision in the party’s constitution that committed it to nationalism of key industries – the so-called Clause 4 – was amended.

    The moral in the Blair anecdote is that a party cannot do any good until it finds its way to get elected. Those who want to make Nigeria great again, or who would have us believe a better country is possible, must first pass the critical test of rallying as unit that’s electable. Otherwise, history will be repeating itself as replication of the 2023 election results.

  • Will Trump be good for Africa?

    Will Trump be good for Africa?

    In his first incarnation as United States President, Donald Trump, once referred to a clutch of developing nations – many of which can be found in Africa – as shithole countries. The brutal insult was unleashed in a moment of frustration over the perception that a horde of immigrants in search of a better life were about to overrun his country.

    By ‘shithole’ he was referring to the abysmal levels of poverty to be found in parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America. To keep out the invaders, one signal policy of his first term was the effort to erect a wall across America’s southern borders. As campaign rhetoric, it was electrifying and attractive. The wall never fully became reality, what with his careless boast about making Mexico pay for it!

    Seeing how successful he was with the immigration theme the first time, the now U.S. President-elect returned to it with uncommon fervour during last year’s campaign. He reminded his compatriots of how his Democratic opponents had opened the gates of America to the rabble from around the world. He infamously claimed repeatedly that Haitian immigrants living in Springfield, Kentucky, had been killing and eating their neighbours’ pets. Despite the denunciation of these lies by the city’s mayor, there were those who held on to it as gospel truth just because Trump said so.

    By pressing every racist and anti-outsider button he could reach, Trump showed once again that he understood his country better than his liberal rivals. Of course, his rhetoric played well because of ongoing economic challenges with rising cost of living that left many Americans angry at how little they could get for their dollar.

    So, as part of his agenda to Make America Great Again (MAGA), he has promised massive and unprecedented deportations of illegal immigrants once in office. He has equally committed himself to abrogating the rights of people from other countries to claim citizenship just by being born on American soil.

    This certainly would be bad news for many Africans and Latin Americans who presently live in the U.S. as undocumented immigrants. It is equally bad news for many in the middle class in these parts who have exploited this citizenship through birth provision in U.S. to have their children on America soil. There are millions of others who are just getting set to cross the Atlantic who won’t be cheered by the fact that the new sheriff in town is not so welcoming.

    Still, it wouldn’t be such a bad thing if such hostility forces the governors and the governed of these so-called ‘shithole’ countries to clean up their act and their domains such that they become places that people don’t flee from.

    Trump’s second coming will see the continuation of his ‘America first’ policies in other ways. There was a time the most powerful nation on earth was perceived as the world’s policeman. Not anymore. Under Trump there would be greater isolationism. The U.S. won’t be rushing around to put fires around the globe, neither would it be dishing it out billions of dollars for that same purpose.

    Read Also: AGF confirms recovery of over $110m in assets

    It is so serious that the president-in-waiting has time without number shaken a major pillar of American foreign policy by warning he could pull out of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), if European partners don’t pay their fair share. In what promises to be a disruptive next four years, nothing is too sacred to be tossed overboard.

    For, instance, rather than commit to further heavy funding to support Ukraine’s war against Russia, Trump would rather the embattled country cuts a deal that sees it accept the physical realities on the ground produced by Vladimir Putin’s aggression.

    This is the same United States led by the late Jimmy Carter who made human rights observance and the defence of democratic principles a key peg of American foreign policy. That thrust saw it stand against a slew of brutal dictatorships across the world for several decades. It is why certain levels of U.S. military hardware cannot be sold to certain countries ruled by dictators. Even some supposed democracies cannot access the arms if their human rights record is problematic.

    But we’ve seen in the past and present that Trump would rather cosy up to despots like North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and Putin, than worry about how the actions of these individuals are causing millions to be denied basic freedoms.

    One of the recent tragedies on the African continent has been the regression from democracy to junta rule in places like Niger, Mali, Gabon and Burkina Faso. In the process the U.S. lost its military presence in Nigeria’s immediate northern neighbour, dealing a blow to regional counterterrorism efforts.

    Unlike Democratic Presidents like Carter, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Trump doesn’t look like he would be too concerned with what African despots get up to – especially if there is no major American interest at stake. That should be good news for the juntas that hold power in these West and Central African states, but bad news for the millions living under their oppressive rule.

    It is equally doubtful if an America in retreat would be suddenly keen to challenge Russia’s ambitions in the Sahel, or China’s growing economic imprint across the continent. For now, Trump appears to be more focused on tariff wars than engaging in arm wrestling with the Asian giant in some distant corner of Africa.

    Perhaps, Trump may yet succeed where Biden and NATO failed with force of arms. Their support for the Ukrainians has not produced battlefield victory, only kept the mighty Russian army at bay. The incoming American president would rather cut his country’s expenses and broker a deal – no matter how smelly.

    The same scenario is playing out in the Middle East where Israel and Hamas are said to be close to a breakthrough ceasefire and hostage deal in their bloody war. The hard negotiations may be going on under Biden, but Trump could end up with the plaudits if the agreement is inked once he steps into office.

    A truce in these two wars – especially the Ukraine-Russia one – could have far reaching global consequences given how the conflict has disrupted the world’s economy in the last few years. Although, the effect of peace breaking out would be felt around the world, the impact would also be far-reaching over the short to medium terms in Africa. It may take a while for traditional trade routes and linkages to be restored, but definitely calm returning in these two conflicts would benefit the continent. And that would be down to Trump’s different approach.

    But things may not necessarily pan out in such a tidy fashion given that it is near impossible to speak of Trump and order in one sentence. His first term was noted for its chaos. The leopard clearly hasn’t changed its spots so the world must watch warily as the new president begins to flex his muscles. African countries must, especially begin to chart a different course in their economic and foreign policies, given that the continent might be a high priority for the incoming administration.

  • Managing Nigeria’s youth challenge

    Managing Nigeria’s youth challenge

    For too long we’ve been told how Nigeria is a nation bursting with potential. You only have to look at our population of well over 200 million people. With wherewithal, this is potentially a massive market for virtually all products known to man: from food, to healthcare to housing, it should be attracting entrepreneurs and global corporations like moth to light.

    But a closer look at the figures throws up another reality. Seventy percent of that population are 30 years and below. Of that demographic, 42% are under the age of 15.

    In 2022, the Federal Ministry of Youth Development projected that up to 35% of young people between 15 and 34 years were unemployed. With an explosion in the last 20 years of public and private sector education investments, every year the country churns out millions of ‘educated’ youths – some employable, others unfit for employment – but all looking for work that’s unavailable.

    Every couple of months an additional layer is added to the multitude of the frustrated who left school thinking their shiny new certificates would deliver to them a better life. They would soon get rude reality checks after discovering those with superior paper qualifications who have been on the queue for ages.

    For years, many leaders didn’t realise the dangerous situation they were creating. Scores of universities owned by state and federal governments or private individuals and institutions were casually approved, with no thought to how the multitudes that would emerge from them would find fulfilment. Even with the nightmare now our reality, approvals are still being given for more tertiary institutions.

    Little wonder that in the last five years, the contraction of opportunities has created a new wave of migration by young people – the so-called ‘japa’ (Yoruba for escape) phenomenon. There are no clear figures but reasonable estimates would put the number of those who have fled in search of a better life in the high hundreds of thousands.

    Social media is awash with celebratory posts from those who successfully landed in their new havens – much to the envy and anguish of those still trapped in these parts, plotting how to outsmart visa authorities of some European country.

    Many were not so lucky; they never got to gloat on Facebook, TikTok or Instagram, because their japa dream ended in the watery belly of the Mediterranean; others in the anonymous dunes of the Sahara Desert. And yet for many others who felt anywhere else was better than home, they discovered that hell has levels after suffering extreme maltreatment in the likes of Libya.

    Throughout history economic adversity has driven people to other lands in search of a better life. So what is happening in Nigeria at this historical juncture is not unique. What should concern us is doing something so that our homeland isn’t a place people – young or old – flee from.

    In the end no country, no matter how welcoming, is going to open its borders for an unending inflow of desperate migrants from the ends of the earth. We are already seeing that resistance. During the campaigns for the U. S. presidency last year, the Republican candidate and now President-elect Donald Trump, made the anti-immigrant message central to his sales pitch. It worked a treat as millions of Americans swept him back into office despite his moral baggage.

    Across Europe, we are also seeing many countries that were quite accommodating to outsiders now electing parties whose main attraction is their hostility to immigrants. That’s why it is pitiable seeing the desperation of young people who think that salvation lies only in escaping from Nigeria, not knowing that slowly, but surely, the door is closing to that option. The only truly viable alternative in making your home liveable, not wasting valuable time despising it.

    Unfortunately, for years not too many youths have taken an interest in things related to politics and governance. Seduced by the easy pleasures of entertainment and whatever distractions social media offered, many focused on getting easy money any which way.

    It is evident in the rapid spread of online financial scams involving mostly young people. Each month the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) parades hundreds of freshly arrested suspects. But the more they are apprehended, the more they multiply, damaging the image and reputation of the country around the world.

    Many of these youths have long since lost their moral compass. They are content with blaming those in government for messing up the country without accountable, or getting involved in the process of running things.

    The finger pointing conveniently ignores their own roles in tarnishing the country’s reputation and damaging its credit. They blithely ignore the fact that those above voting age who fail to engage the process by which they are governed as just as complicit as those who have mismanaged Nigeria.

    A turning point of sorts was probably the #EndSARS protests which began nobly as an uprising against police brutality, but terminated under a cloud of controversy at the Lekki toll gate. An action that staggered the authorities, triggering the dissolution of the infamous Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS), was hijacked by external forces with diverse agendas.

    Although the protests ended as a heroic failure, they were a pointer to young people who drove it, that with better organisation, they could achieve great things politically. Two years after the protests, the campaign season leading to the 2023 polls saw the involvement of more youths in the political process. Many were first time voters. They were also naive and saw their desire for change manipulated by Machiavellian politicians who were only interested in riding on their backs to power.

    Read Also: We’ll lift Africa out of poverty, says Tinubu

    One of their big errors was a sense of entitlement that assumed they were ready to govern solely by belonging to the largest demographic in the country. Public office requires preparation and voters would not easily hand the highest ones to novices. Another mistake was deluding themselves that, somehow, they didn’t contribute to messing up the country. Nothing can be farther from the truth.

    There are scores of politicians under 40 who have held political office at state and local government levels and contributed to the making of our current condition. Many were in state assemblies or even the House of Representatives. One of the brightest stars of the Bola Tinubu administration at its onset was Dr. Betta Edu. She was young, bright and beautiful; and obviously being primed for greater things. But she would crash down in the corruption controversy which engulfed her ministry early in 2024.

    The starting point to unlocking the potentials of Nigeria’s huge youth population is a humble acceptance that all have sinned against this country. Secondly, we must acknowledge that young Nigerians have the ability to do great things even if they are resident in this country. Some of the biggest entertainment stars to come out of Africa – the likes of Wizkid, Burna Boy and Davido – are all Nigerians. Their compatriots are also doing great things in sports, fintech and filmmaking to mention a few.

    This is why any wise government would turn attention to harnessing what this demographic can offer. In his Independence Day speech last year, Tinubu proposed a 30-day youth summit supposedly “to address the diverse challenges and opportunities confronting our your people.” On New Year Day he promised that the Youth Ministry would rollout modalities for the conference in the first quarter of 2025.

    On the face of it, the intervention shows an administration that understands the country has a huge challenge on its hands. The worry is how to ensure that this doesn’t end up as another jamboree for the usual windbags to bask in the limelight for a couple of hours. At the end of the day billions would have been spent with not much to show for the splurging.

    There is also a question as to whether we need 30 days to discover what we already know. It’s not rocket science understanding that young people are looking for opportunities, jobs, help with funding their education and starting businesses. Many are equally looking for a country where things work; a country whose leaders are role models.

    That said, the government deserves credit for this initiative just as it should be commended for others like student loans and credit schemes. It should, however, ensure that the proposed summit which supposedly is to produce an actionable template for unlocking the massive energy of our youths doesn’t end up as another Nigerian horror show.

  • 2025: Pivotal year for Tinubu, Nigeria

    2025: Pivotal year for Tinubu, Nigeria

    Nigerians are a very religious people. Not surprisingly, a tradition has developed over the years in this country where prophets, priests, seers and others of that tribe, unleash a torrent of prophecies concerning the new year. With the benefit of hindsight, one can say some of these predictions fairly captured the general tone 2024 took. Others were wide off the mark. But don’t expect that failing to stop some from approaching their clouded crystal balls again.

    You don’t need to be a soothsayer to know that 2025 would a pivotal year for President Bola Tinubu, his ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), the opposition parties and Nigeria as a whole. There’s much that happened in the closing weeks and months of the last year that gives you a sense of how things might pan out over the next 12 months.

    The big story for the 2025 would, again, be the state of the economy. In 2024, Nigeria grappled with the fallout from Tinubu’s economic reforms. The fuel subsidy regime that had become a permanent feature of our national life was terminated abruptly. It wasn’t exactly surgery without anaesthesia, rather the painkillers – now popularly referred to as palliatives – felt more like placebos.

    For much of the year all the talk was about economic hardship as citizens battled an inflationary spiral that didn’t respond to anything the Central Bank threw at it. The cost of moving goods and people hit an all-time high. Hopes that the commencement of operations by the Dangote Refinery would bring some relief, proved to be massively exaggerated.

    But as the year wound to a close, the unexpected resuscitation of the old Port Harcourt refinery, produced a very rare phenomenon – a drop in the price of a popular commodity. Before our very eyes, the arguments of proponents of full deregulation of the petroleum sector began to manifest. Dangote Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) were soon locked in a price competition that brought pump price of petrol to less than N1,000 per litre in major cities.

    More good news came last Monday with reactivation of the 125,000 bpd Warri Refinery. Some time in this new year, Abdulsamad Rabiu’s BUA Refinery and the new Port Harcourt refinery are expected to come on stream. This is expected to further sharpen competition for market share, leading to a drop in prices benefiting motorists.

    Read Also: Warri refinery restoration, New Year gift to Nigerians – Gov Okpebholo

    It doesn’t end there. The rise in local refining capacity means Nigeria is effectively now an exporter of refined petroleum products. Dangote is already sending its products to different parts of Africa and beyond. There were reports last year that the coming of this 650,000 bpd facility would be bad news for some refineries across Europe as they were likely to lose customers, eventually leading to them shutting down.

    This is a remarkable turnaround for a country which for many decades was enslaved to imported petrol. It is especially cheering that facilities which many had dismissed as junk have been substantially recovered, such that it can be said that not all of the billions of dollars invested in turnaround maintenance were totally wasted.

    Events in the petroleum sector are a welcome departure from much of the gloom and doom of the past year. They just help everyone to see the possibilities for economic prosperity that lie ahead.

    It would be hasty to think that the refineries alone would change the fundamental issues dogging the economy. Much will rest on the fortunes of the naira against the dollar and other major currencies. The consensus is that CBN tweaking alone won’t strengthen the currency. Rather, producing for export as well as attracting foreign investment would do the trick.

    The last set of figures from the government showed that our foreign reserves had crossed the $40 billion mark. This is the highest it has reached for years. Still, we can do better. A weaker naira might be good for exporters but it’s also bad news for local business whose inputs are largely imported. It would be the challenge of the managers of the economy to get the rate down to a level that’s satisfactory for all sides.

    One of the great disappointments of the past few years has been in the area of agriculture where it is generally acknowledged the country in punching below its weight. The scary headline inflation rate has been largely impacted by high food prices. Aside smuggling, food inflation has been fuelled by insecurity across the nation’s baskets. Until farmers feel safe enough to return to their lands not much will change.

    The government understands this much. That’s why security has received the highest allocation of funds in the 2025 budget. Tinubu has vowed in recent speeches that his government would take back every inch of Nigerian land occupied by non-state actors as well as stamp its presence on all ungoverned spaces.

    Hopefully, he would match his words with action as security is crucial to the nation meeting its agricultural and crude oil production targets.

    Concerning, the wider challenge of insecurity, some progress was made in 2024. With the exception of the Lakurawa terror group which suddenly emerged in the Nothwest, attacks by Boko Haram in the Northeast have been muted or virtually non-existent. Beyond a few attacks in Benue and Plateau, this season has been relatively devoid of bloodshed in such theatres as Southern Kaduna. Such gains need to sustained while ensuring kidnapping becomes a rare story.

    On the political front, it promises to be an intriguing year for Tinubu and APC. By May 29, he would be at the halfway mark of his four-year tenure. How his administration is perceived at that point could have a bearing on his fortunes at the 2027 elections. This is moreso considering that his political foes have been scheming from day one to deny him a second term.

    At the height of the challenges arising from his economic reforms many suggested they would have a negative impact on his political fortunes. I have, however, argued that time is the president’s greatest ally. His smartest step was to move quickly on the most painful reforms at a time far removed from the next polls. If his policies produce positive results voters would have forgotten the pain come 2027. For every success story delivered, his stature becomes more muscular.

    The reverse is the case for his rivals who can only watch from the sidelines while he pulls all the powerful levers of the presidency. Tinubu is either a very lucky man or a truly visionary politician. With fuel subsidy he pulled off what all his predecessors were too scared to touch. He did it and the heavens didn’t fall. Miraculously, Nigerians who largely resisted it in the past meekly fell in line.

    Under him, refineries that the likes former President Olusegun Obasanjo swore can never work, are roaring back to life. He is on the verge of scoring a major coup with the tax reform bills despite desperate opposition from entrenched interests. He is pressing ahead with landmark road projects like the Lagos-Calabar and Badagry-Sokoto highways.

    For the opposition parties this year would be make or break. Elements from across their folds are supposedly working on a so-called ‘mega party’ with the sole aim of ending Tinubu’s reign. Nigerian history is replete with attempts at forming some sort of ‘mega’ party or the other. In the end what was delivered was a damp squib.

    In reality, an opposition ‘mega’ party already exists in the form of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) with presence across the country. But those scurrying around to create a new contraption are by their action passing a vote of no confidence on it, and rightly so. This once dominant party is today so riven with factions that it would be a pitiable sight if its troubles are not resolved soon. The indications are that, given the egos at war, they won’t be resolved soon.

    Still, PDP would be a platform at the next election along with whatever new thing is being cooked up. From the Second Republic until now it has been established that a fractured opposition can never unseat a focused Nigerian incumbent. The 2023 presidential election outcome is the most recent confirmation of that fact of life. So good luck with the mega party and similar wild goose chases of this new year.

    In the meantime, a very happy new to one and all, to the political and apolitical!

  • A taxing conversation

    A taxing conversation

    Of all the candidates who ran for president last year, not many would have tagged the All Progressives Congress’ (APC), Bola Tinubu, as disruptive. A leading light of the ruling party during Muhammadu Buhari’s eight-year rule, he was seen as part of the establishment. Running for office he promised to continue from where his predecessor stopped. If he won, it looked like Nigerians were going to be served more of the same.

    But with his very first speech on Inauguration Day, he upended a way of life with his “subsidy is gone” declaration. In short order he would launch the naira floatation – triggering an unprecedented costing of living crisis.

    Just as the nation was coming to terms with the economic changes, his administration brought before the Supreme Court a suit that gave financial autonomy to local government areas across the country. These administrative units had long suffered under the oppressive thumbs of governors who exercised control by doling out crumbs to them from the joint state-local government accounts.

    This was the point at which many began to take notice the government wasn’t about business as usual. Governors who for decades ruled their states like emperors, suddenly found themselves restrained from fooling around with billions that was theirs to play with hitherto.

    Many ran their councils with ad-hoc committees packed with specially chosen yes men who did nothing more than paying salaries. Elections for chairmen were unheard of in many states and where they held, mere sham events to fulfil all righteousness. So, the Supreme Court judgment was a massive jolt to their systems.

    Based on that judgment they have been forced to hold elections in order for their local governments to receive allocations from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC). While many have done this grudgingly, others have gone a step further – looking for ways to circumvent the judicial stumbling block that now restricts their access to LG funds.

    In Anambra, for instance, Governor Chukwuma Soludo, came up with a law that requires councils to pay a portion of what they receive from the centre into their joint accounts. Some of his colleagues are still working on ways to retrieve the power they lost.

    It is against this backdrop that the administration dropped its bouquet of tax reform bills into the mix. About 14 months in the making, these legislations were some of the earliest initiatives embarked upon by the government; that gives a sense of how much Tinubu prioritised this area as part of his legacy.

    The package includes four main bills: the Nigeria Tax Bill, the Nigeria Tax Administration Bill, the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill, and the Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Bill. Each of the legislations addresses specific aspects of tax administration, compliance, and enforcement.

    The bills are supposed to ensure uniformity in tax revenue administration across Nigeria, eliminate double taxation, use taxation to encourage private sector investment in critical industries and boost disposable incomes through targeted tax exemptions.

    The poorest in society are key winners under the new arrangement. Individuals earning below the minimum wage are exempted from the Pay As You Earn (PAYE) tax. Similarly, small businesses with annual turnovers of N50 million or less would be exempt from paying taxes.

    If passed into law, the bills would reduce corporate income tax rate from 30% to 25% over the next two years as a way of alleviating financial pressures on businesses and foster investment.

    The bills propose a significant shift in VAT revenue distribution, allocating revenues based on the states where goods and services are consumed rather than pooling them centrally for redistribution. This, unfortunately, has become the main bone of contention.

    The committee that worked on the reforms argues that their proposals are fair and align better with VAT’s nature as a consumption tax. The current law favours states like Lagos and Rivers which play host to the headquarters of large corporations. But it also sustains inequitable arrangements where those that contribute the most get only a fraction from the pool, while state chipping in the least get much more than they put in.

    Read Also: Yuletide: 608,644 passengers to enjoy FG’s rail, road transport palliative

    Most people who have taken the trouble to read through the legislations or even familiarise themselves with summaries, admit that while not perfect, the bills are a massive improvement on what we currently have. Of course, they challenge states which are currently content with heading to Abuja for the monthly handout from FAAC, to do more about boosting economic activity in their domains.

    But, surely, no one can quarrel with tax exemptions for the poorest of the poor, or cuts for struggling families. Fair minded persons cannot be against reducing the taxation burdens on MSMES and other companies.

    In other words, of the four bills, opposition has been most vociferous around that dealing with VAT. But rather than isolating it and looking at ways of addressing whatever inequities it may contain, vested interests who want to maintain the status quo would rather all four legislations are stopped in their tracks in the name of having further consultations.

    Bear in mind that such discussions have been going on over the last 14 months. Among those consulted were governors who at a recent meeting of the National Economic Council (NEC) made the controversial demand to the president. It was met with a resolute pushback from Tinubu who asked them to take their concerns to National Assembly hearings.

    It was the appropriate response as the parliament is the place for lawmaking and any adjustments can be made there. But what is interesting is that many of the opponents of the bills are not even ready for a discussion, or for the normal give-and-take involved in lawmaking. They just want the reforms shut down for the most specious reasons.

    What I find most exhausting is that, in typical Nigerian fashion, what should be discourse about the economic wellbeing of citizens has been reduced to a political shouting match about plots to disadvantage one region or the other.

    The most hysterical voices have come from parts of the North. Ali Ndume, senator representing Borno South district, was already foaming at the gills even when he hadn’t read a line of the proposals. His governor, Babagana Zulum, would be even more zealous in his outcry, claiming the state would be unable to pay salaries and that certain federal agencies would close down due to lack of funding.

    These allegations have been sufficiently exposed as baseless. Those who made them haven’t been able to provide any section of the bills to back their tales by moonlight. The deliberate injection of falsehoods and innuendoes into what should be a sober conversation just speaks to the hidden agenda of these forces.

    One of such lies is that the entire ‘North’ is against the reforms. Nothing can be further from the truth. There is no ‘Northern’ consensus over the matter. Just as you have the governors voicing their concerns, many influential and respected voices in the region – some of them ex governors – have spoken out in favour of the bills.

    The North is not prostrate and has its own economic strengths in trading and agriculture. Niger State Governor, Mohammed Bago, is quietly showing what can be done in this area, while his less imaginative colleagues are crying wolf. This region was known not only for agriculture but also for its textile mills: all that is now history.

    Through the years these could have been revived. But in the intervening period leaders were more content with federal revenue sharing and any attempt to shift them from their comfort zones became occasion for scaremongering. It is for the leaders of the North to harness its strength and return the zone to the economic power house it once was.

    Let’s not forget that Tinubu as governor once had federal allocation for the state seized by President Olusegun Obasanjo’s regime in a dispute over local government creation. His saving grace was the state’s Internally Generated Revenue (IGR). All states may not have the advantage of Lagos, but they can start somewhere. Perhaps they should ask their Enugu State counterpart, Peter Mbah, how he’s quadrupled revenues in his short time in office.

    No doubt, much of the brouhaha over the tax bills is fuelled by the fear of the unknown. But we cannot expect change by doing the same things they haven’t moved us forward. We should ask governors if the current tax revenue arrangements were so great, how come they are not flush with funds for development?

    Everyone talks about reshaping the fundamental structure of the economy to make it less dependent on oil. Any reforms that can help us move into that brave new future where shocks in the international crude market don’t become a source of constant national palpitation should be embraced. That’s why ethnic jingoists and alarmists must not be allowed to frustrate the tax reforms.

    •This article was first published on December 11, 2024

  • The long walk to 2027

    The long walk to 2027

    The 2023 electoral cycle is the one that never ended. Even after the Supreme Court dismissed the cases brought before it by Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Atiku Abubakar and the Labour Party’s (LP), Peter Obi, it was clear that for the two men, there was no closure.

    They never accepted defeat, never congratulated the winner President Bola Tinubu, and showed by their reaction to final judicial defeat that they were ready to relitigate the matter – this time in the court of public opinion.

    Standard behavior – even in politics – accepts that there’s time for everything; a time to campaign, a time to govern. The changing of times is usually marked by the termination of legal hostilities at the apex court. But in an age where denialism has become reality, nothing is the same.

    The only outcome that would have been acceptable to either Atiku or Obi was one in which they were declared winners. Since it is impossible to have three winners on one contest, they have grudgingly accepted the fact that there’s a president sitting in Aso Rock, while they are skulking around in the opposition wilderness. This is just a restless, holding position.

    Everything they have done since points to the fact that they are warming up for a repeat of a contest that is at least three years away. Take Obi for example. While his performance at the polls last year surprised many by its reach into largely Christian areas of North-Central, it also exposed the weaknesses of his presentation and how his candidacy was perceived.

    He would have loved to be seen as a pan-Nigerian figure whose message resonated with a younger demographic, but the lopsided results in the Southeast made him out to be an ethnic project. His performance in the Southwest was anaemic – with the exception of Lagos where a complex mix of religion and ethnicity delivered a famous win for him in the presidential poll.

    Read Also: Gov Sani returns Abacha family’s lands revoked, seized by El-Rufai

    By choosing the same-faith ticket, the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Tinubu, opened the window for his rivals to weaponise religion. While Atiku attacked the ticket will all the gusto he could muster, it was Obi who really made a meal of it. He traipsed through mega churches the length and breadth of the South with the rallying cry ‘Christians, take back your country!’ Such exhortations were often greeted with exuberant cheers.

    His determined attempt to cement himself as the Christian candidate in an environment where the Muslim-Muslim ticket had been demonised would end in a scandal after his fawning ‘yes daddy’ phone conversation with Pentecostal grandee, Bishop David Oyedepo, was leaked.

    While he was pursuing the strategy of locking up the Christian vote North and South, he forgot the downside of being seen as anti the other side of the religious divide. It was no surprise therefore that the LP flagbearer made only the most perfunctory of attempts to canvass votes in the far North. It was a factor that would deny him the national spread required to win the presidency.

    It is clear the man recognises the mistakes made and has been taking baby steps to remedy them. For instance, the same person who wanted Christians to take back their country one year ago, was sighted in a couple of gatherings during Ramadan breaking fast with Muslims.

    Social media was also agog with images of a poorly executed borehole project bearing his name somewhere in Zaria. Many were quick to conclude he was was rebranding ahead 2027. Such were the extremes to which he went in 2023 that he would need more than these photo-ops and posturing to reverse the damage.

    As for Atiku, he has never hidden the fact that for as long as he has breath, he would pursue his dream of becoming president. So, next stop, 2027. But with the former Vice President there’s been noticeable change. Gone is some of the arrogance that misled him into thinking he could win the last election without the support of the Nyesom Wike-led G-5 rump of the PDP.

    The same man who preferred to hang on to the questionable electoral asset called Iyorchia Ayu rather than work with five state governors, is today feverishly marketing a grand coalition of opposition parties as the only way of toppling the ruling party at the next election. For inspiration, he points to the victory of the 44-year-old Bassirou Diomaye Faye at the recent Senegalese presidential poll as evidence of what’s possible when parties work together.

    It can be taken for granted that all things being equal, the incumbent will run again. At least he made that obvious when at the inauguration of Lagos Red Line rail project in February, he taunted Joe Ajaero and the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) to wait until 2027 if they were interested in political power.

    The trouble for Tinubu’s rivals is that while the next elections represent a window of opportunity for those who wish to supplant an officeholder with a record, they would be reduced in that time to merely carping on the sidelines watching the president wield power.

    They may wish he stumbles from error to error – providing them with ammunition to attack his record. But the reverse is also possible; that he could go from win to win – becoming more presidential as the days go by. Critically, he’s taken some pivotal and very unpopular steps early in his tenure, giving him sufficient time to ride out any negative blowback. Early signs point to the fact that fuel subsidy removal and the forex reforms were the right calls needed to unlock the economy.

    Given what we know about the evolution of political power in these parts, it’s going to take more than opposition name-calling to bring about regime change at the next election – especially if the pace of reforms is sustained and the economy rebounds and becomes stronger. PDP, LP and others would then have to make a compelling case as to why voters should dump a tried and tested model for a pie in the sky.

    In the days when the British Tory Party seemed to have a lock on power, going from one electoral triumph to another, it was a young Tony Blair who warned his comrades in the then far left-leaning British Labour Party about the need to develop policies and an image that would make them electable. He argued that no matter how well-meaning a party’s policies were, they could do nothing about them except they found a way to get into power. He would then push Labour to be more centrist and eventually electable.

    At least the Labour Party was not just a cohesive platform, it was perceived by British voters as a credible alternative to the Conservatives. Today, the PDP which in its days in power appeared invincible and even dreamt of governing non-stop for 60 years, is on the ropes – riven with factions. This week it would hold crucial meetings that would affect its future. It is a measure of how much confidence Atiku has in it that he’s desperately marketing a joining of forces with other parties.

    The same affliction has paralysed the Labour Party which is locked in an internecine feud with NLC which claims to own it. Such is the bitterness of the dispute that it promises to be long drawn – rendering it largely useless to anyone hoping to ride it to power.

    Perhaps, the most credible challenge to APC rule lies in an opposition coalition. But its prospects are dead on arrival because of the ambitions of the would be promoters and partners. The day Atiku sacrifices his ambition for Obi or the NNPP’s Rabiu Kwankwaso or vice versa, is the day to begin to take such a project serious. Until then, any visions of power these perennial contestants may be having are nothing short of a mirage.

  • A taxing conversation

    A taxing conversation

    Of all the candidates who ran for president last year, not many would have tagged the All Progressives Congress’ (APC), Bola Tinubu, as disruptive. A leading light of the ruling party during Muhammadu Buhari’s eight-year rule, he was seen as part of the establishment. Running for office he promised to continue from where his predecessor stopped. If he won, it looked like Nigerians were going to be served more of the same.

    But with his very first speech on Inauguration Day, he upended a way of life with his “subsidy is gone” declaration. In short order he would launch the naira floatation – triggering an unprecedented costing of living crisis.

    Just as the nation was coming to terms with the economic changes, his administration brought before the Supreme Court a suit that gave financial autonomy to local government areas across the country. These administrative units had long suffered under the oppressive thumbs of governors who exercised control by doling out crumbs to them from the joint state-local government accounts.

    This was the point at which many began to take notice the government wasn’t about business as usual. Governors who for decades ruled their states like emperors, suddenly found themselves restrained from fooling around with billions that was theirs to play with hitherto.

    Many ran their councils with ad-hoc committees packed with specially chosen yes men who did nothing more than paying salaries. Elections for chairmen were unheard of in many states and where they held, mere sham events to fulfil all righteousness. So, the Supreme Court judgment was a massive jolt to their systems.

    Based on that judgment they have been forced to hold elections in order for their local governments to receive allocations from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC). While many have done this grudgingly, others have gone a step further – looking for ways to circumvent the judicial stumbling block that now restricts their access to LG funds.

    In Anambra, for instance, Governor Chukwuma Soludo, came up with a law that requires councils to pay a portion of what they receive from the centre into their joint accounts. Some of his colleagues are still working on ways to retrieve the power they lost.

    It is against this backdrop that the administration dropped its bouquet of tax reform bills into the mix. About 14 months in the making, these legislations were some of the earliest initiatives embarked upon by the government; that gives a sense of how much Tinubu prioritised this area as part of his legacy.

    Read Also: Tinubu hails Nigerian-born Ogunyemi on Canadian Medical Association Presidency

    The package includes four main bills: the Nigeria Tax Bill, the Nigeria Tax Administration Bill, the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill, and the Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Bill. Each of the legislations addresses specific aspects of tax administration, compliance, and enforcement.

    The bills are supposed to ensure uniformity in tax revenue administration across Nigeria, eliminate double taxation, use taxation to encourage private sector investment in critical industries and boost disposable incomes through targeted tax exemptions.

    The poorest in society are key winners under the new arrangement. Individuals earning below the minimum wage are exempted from the Pay As You Earn (PAYE) tax. Similarly, small businesses with annual turnovers of N50 million or less would be exempt from paying taxes.

    If passed into law, the bills would reduce corporate income tax rate from 30% to 25% over the next two years as a way of alleviating financial pressures on businesses and foster investment.

    The bills propose a significant shift in VAT revenue distribution, allocating revenues based on the states where goods and services are consumed rather than pooling them centrally for redistribution. This, unfortunately, has become the main bone of contention.

    The committee that worked on the reforms argues that their proposals are fair and align better with VAT’s nature as a consumption tax. The current law favours states like Lagos and Rivers which play host to the headquarters of large corporations. But it also sustains inequitable arrangements where those that contribute the most get only a fraction from the pool, while state chipping in the least get much more than they put in.

    Most people who have taken the trouble to read through the legislations or even familiarise themselves with summaries, admit that while not perfect, the bills are a massive improvement on what we currently have. Of course, they challenge states which are currently content with heading to Abuja for the monthly handout from FAAC, to do more about boosting economic activity in their domains.

    But, surely, no one can quarrel with tax exemptions for the poorest of the poor, or cuts for struggling families. Fair minded persons cannot be against reducing the taxation burdens on MSMES and other companies.

    In other words, of the four bills, opposition has been most vociferous around that dealing with VAT. But rather than isolating it and looking at ways of addressing whatever inequities it may contain, vested interests who want to maintain the status quo would rather all four legislations are stopped in their tracks in the name of having further consultations.

    Bear in mind that such discussions have been going on over the last 14 months. Among those consulted were governors who at a recent meeting of the National Economic Council (NEC) made the controversial demand to the president. It was met with a resolute pushback from Tinubu who asked them to take their concerns to National Assembly hearings.

    It was the appropriate response as the parliament is the place for lawmaking and any adjustments can be made there. But what is interesting is that many of the opponents of the bills are not even ready for a discussion, or for the normal give-and-take involved in lawmaking. They just want the reforms shut down for the most specious reasons. 

    What I find most exhausting is that, in typical Nigerian fashion, what should be discourse about the economic wellbeing of citizens has been reduced to a political shouting match about plots to disadvantage one region or the other.

    The most hysterical voices have come from parts of the North. Ali Ndume, senator representing Borno South district, was already foaming at the gills even when he hadn’t read a line of the proposals. His governor, Babagana Zulum, would be even more zealous in his outcry, claiming the state would be unable to pay salaries and that certain federal agencies would close down due to lack of funding.

    These allegations have been sufficiently exposed as baseless. Those who made them haven’t been able to provide any section of the bills to back their tales by moonlight. The deliberate injection of falsehoods and innuendoes into what should be a sober conversation just speaks to the hidden agenda of these forces.

    One of such lies is that the entire ‘North’ is against the reforms. Nothing can be further from the truth. There is no ‘Northern’ consensus over the matter. Just as you have the governors voicing their concerns, many influential and respected voices in the region – some of them ex governors – have spoken out in favour of the bills.

    The North is not prostrate and has its own economic strengths in trading and agriculture. Niger State Governor, Mohammed Bago, is quietly showing what can be done in this area, while his less imaginative colleagues are crying wolf. This region was known not only for agriculture but also for its textile mills: all that is now history.

    Through the years these could have been revived. But in the intervening period leaders were more content with federal revenue sharing and any attempt to shift them from their comfort zones became occasion for scaremongering. It is for the leaders of the North to harness its strength and return the zone to the economic power house it once was.

    Let’s not forget that Tinubu as governor once had federal allocation for the state seized by President Olusegun Obasanjo’s regime in a dispute over local government creation. His saving grace was the state’s Internally Generated Revenue (IGR). All states may not have the advantage of Lagos, but they can start somewhere. Perhaps they should ask their Enugu State counterpart, Peter Mbah, how he’s quadrupled revenues in his short time in office.

    No doubt, much of the brouhaha over the tax bills is fuelled by the fear of the unknown. But we cannot expect change by doing the same things they haven’t moved us forward. We should ask governors if the current tax revenue arrangements were so great, how come they are not flush with funds for development?

    Everyone talks about reshaping the fundamental structure of the economy to make it less dependent on oil. Any reforms that can help us move into that brave new future where shocks in the international crude market don’t become a source of constant national palpitation should be embraced. That’s why ethnic jingoists and alarmists must not be allowed to frustrate the tax reforms.

  • Nigeria’s national malaise

    Nigeria’s national malaise

    Yesterday, the Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) announced the commencement of operations at the revived old Port Harcourt Refinery. Videos shared on X showed tankers loading petrol. Diesel and Kerosene are also being produced.

    According to the company, the restored facility would for now be able to process 60,000 barrels of crude per day, servicing up to 200 trucks within a twenty four hour cycle. Side by side with the giant Dangote Refinery in Lagos which has the capacity to process 650,000 barrels within a similar time frame, this looks like a puny step for the much-maligned corporation.

    Put in proper context though, it’s actually a massive leap for Nigeria. This refinery built in 1965, along with a newer version constructed in 1989, hasn’t functioned for nearly 20 years. In that time, billions of naira was spent by different administrations for Turn Around Maintenance (TAM) that was supposed to keep the facility ticking. This was akin to making a bonfire of naira notes as it never worked for one day. It was the same story with other NNPCL refineries in Warri and Kaduna.

    Such was the lack of faith they could be salvaged that former President Olusegun Obasanjo, in the waning days of his administration, pronounced them unserviceable and proceeded to sell them off to the Bluestar Oil Services consortium led by Aliko Dangote and Femi Otedola.

    The Port Harcourt refinery was sold for $561 million, while the Kaduna facility was released for $160-million. These transactions weren’t universally applauded. They were perceived as ugly examples of cronyism given that the billionaire businessmen were especially close to the then president.

    Not surprisingly, pressure from labour unions and other interests who felt that our common patrimony had been pawned off too cheaply, forced the newly-installed President Umaru Yar’Adua to reverse the sale. But retaining ownership in government hands and investing further billions in TAM didn’t change the story.

    Today, however, a government that has been buffeted by a succession of bad news has something positive to celebrate – the Lazarus-like resurrection of a refinery many had written off. The news comes on the back of the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reporting that the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.46% year-on-year in real terms during the third quarter of 2024.

    This is welcome relief for an administration which for much of its 18 months of existence has been battling runaway food inflation, soaring petrol prices and managing the fallout from the floatation of the naira. Despite encouraging data suggesting an economy gradually on the mend, the average man hasn’t seen this translate into an easing of his daily struggles.

    Read Also: Nigeria’s laws outdated, need holistic review, says Fagbemi

    That, perhaps, explains why the excitement of those in government contrasts so sharply with the more restrained response from the wider populace. It’s as if many are still pinching themselves, waiting to be assured that this is for real. Some others are more interested in whether it results in lower prices.

    Again, this is understandable. In September when the Dangote Refinery began producing petrol, many erroneously assumed it would lead to lower prices just because processing was being done locally. But they soon got a reality check. This wasn’t a charitable organisation but a business that was going to sell its products at market prices reflecting global trends. So, no one can blame people for not getting their hopes too high this time.

    The next few days would be interesting as we get more clarity on NNPCL’s pricing. Would it be marginally or substantially lower than Dangote’s? A few days ago the latter shaved off N20 from its ex-depot price. Was this really in appreciation of the support of Nigerians as it claimed, or an action that anticipated the return of a formidable rival to the fray?

    Perhaps a truer picture of the dynamics should emerge in coming months as more government-owned refineries across the country bounce back to life. Rehabilitation is estimated to be between 60% and 80% in all of them. There would then be a more competitive environment in the local energy market that ultimately benefits consumers by way of lower prices and disappearance of queues.

    The country is also now in that pleasant place where its refineries are legally exporting crude to the West Africa market and beyond. The legitimate earning of foreign currency can only have a salutary effect on the economy.

    In his remarks welcoming the revival of the Port Harcourt refinery, President Bola Tinubu complimented his predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari, for starting the process. So how much credit does his own administration deserve for what has been achieved? I would say a lot. But that sentiment isn’t shared by many of his compatriots trapped in the crippling grip of cynicism and bitterness.

    In today’s Nigeria, there are many convinced that things can only get worse. They are instantly suspicious, if not out-rightly hostile to any mention of good news. They would never give credit to the man who claims to be reforming the economy, but who they primarily view as the cause of their hardship.

    I indulged myself in the comments section of stories about the revival of the refinery and found very interesting reactions. One reader who was convinced that the reports were lies suggested that NNPCL had only trucked in petrol from Dangote Refinery, and was dispensing same in Port Harcourt, to deceive a gullible public!

    Another declared it was just a photo-op to make Tinubu look good; by making it appear he had succeeded where a procession of past presidents – from Obasanjo to Buhari failed to deliver. Working facilities – especially those which have just been resurrected from the dead – don’t fit into the failed nation narrative which Obasanjo has been hawking around.

    Yet, another swore the revival of the refinery wouldn’t last. It was only a matter of time before it returned to the status quo. He didn’t offer any explanation why this would happen beyond certain assurance it would.

    In the chain of comments, you could only find a handful that was genuinely pleased at the positive news. The vast majority were determined to hang onto their doom and gloom. Truly, self-loathing is not only becoming a pastime, it’s almost now a national malaise. 

    It’s all too reminiscent of a time in the late 70s when former United States President Jimmy Carter faced seemingly intractable problems. Inflation had hit a giddying 13 percent. Fuel queues were forcing Americans to wait at petrol stations to fill their cars on alternating days.

    Amid the crisis, and with his popularity at rock bottom, Carter hid himself away at the Camp David presidential retreat where he spent close to two weeks hosting business, religious and political leaders – consulting them on how he should address the nation’s problems.

    At the end of period the president delivered what would come to be known as the “Malaise Speech,” in which he claimed America was suffering a “crisis in confidence” which struck “at the very heart and soul and spirit of our national will.” He called upon the country to reflect upon its meaning and purpose. It was a speech that was well received at the time.

    In the course of the past 18 months, Tinubu has made many speeches which have challenged Nigerians not to wallow in self-pity but hope that things would pick up. Indeed, his whole platform of governance is dubbed ‘Renewed Hope.’

    So, at a time when lots of people have lost hope because of economic challenges, does the president need to go the Carter route by delivering another stirring sermon that attempts to convict the prophets of doom? Certainly not!

    We live in times when many don’t want to listen or reason. In one recent example, a senator form the Northeast who is opposed to the tax reform bills currently before the National Assembly, openly admitted he hadn’t read the details. Despite not being familiar with its contents, he still swore to vote against them all the same!

    It is very difficult to argue with evidence or results. Even those who chose to do so for a while will soon reconcile themselves with reality. That’s why Tinubu must prioritise the delivery of the other refineries. Much of the inflationary pressures in Nigeria are driven by energy and transportation costs whether you are speaking of businesses or families.

    He must quickly deliver on other low-hanging fruit regarding the economy. There would be a tipping point in the national mood when the constant dripping of good news drowns out the bad.

  • Awaiting Nigeria’s one-party state

    Awaiting Nigeria’s one-party state

    The just concluded governorship election in Ondo State was expected to be one-sided. But not even the cockiest could have predicted a clean sweep of all 18 local government areas by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Lucky Aiyedatiwa.

    The last time this happened was ten years ago in Ekiti when the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Ayodele Fayose, floored the APC governor, Kayode Fayemi, in all 16 local government areas of the state. Many expected a tough contest in which the incumbent would prevail somehow. What played out was an unscripted electoral massacre.

    The Ondo poll is the second victory pulled off by the ruling APC in two months. The other was in Edo where a resurgent opposition deftly exploited the cracks within Godwin Obaseki’s PDP to seize power. Both victories come against the backdrop of severe economic challenges across the country. You would therefore expect that, as of happens in similar circumstances, the party at the centre would pay a price for the hardship facing the citizenry.

    But in the two states, voters were clearly influenced by other local issues and personalities in making their choices. Never mind that the losers have been singing the same refrain about rigging and blaming the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for their woes. In these latest polls, independent observers acknowledge that while there may have been flaws in organisation, the outcomes largely reflect the will of the people.

    The defeat in Edo has been especially galling for the main opposition PDP as it meant ceding territory to APC where it should have been gaining ground, or keeping what it had, if it is to have a realistic chance of upstaging the ruling party in three years.

    It lost the 2023 presidential contest against the background of economic turbulence. That losing streak has been sustained amid internal divisions that remain unresolved, and don’t look like they are going to be resolved any time soon. The uncertainty has seen a near one-way traffic of defectors to the other side. It is surely must be demoralising when the spokesman of last year’s PDP presidential campaign, Daniel Bwala, is now holding forth in Aso Rock as one of the mouthpieces of President Bola Tinubu.

    The opposition’s frustrations have led to claims that APC was somehow implementing a grand scheme to turn the country into a one-party state. In a statement on October 1, Nigeria’s Independence anniversary, PDP’s candidate at last year’s election, Atiku Abubakar, warned that a one-party dictatorship was imminent and called for action to reclaim democracy.

    He accused APC of manipulating opposition parties to weaken their effectiveness, stating, “Our political milieu has become corrosive; opposition parties languish in weakness, while the ruling party appears to manipulate internal processes to render them ineffectual.”

    A little over six weeks after delivering this rallying cry for citizens to save democracy, his party got a shellacking in Ondo which showed he and his types are still pressing the wrong buttons. They have no clue how to save their hides, talk less of rescuing a system of government. Clearly, ordinary people were not sufficiently frightened by the so-called threat to democracy.

    The comprehensive nature of PDP’s defeat in Ondo was not because of vote-buying or manipulation by INEC officials. It was down to the fact that major stakeholders in the state had lined up behind Governor Aiyedatiwa. Many were stalwarts of the opposition who have since moved on, others were statesmen and local pillars who couldn’t bring themselves to back Agboola Ajayi’s enfeebled challenge.

    Read Also: ICPC tracks N610b constituency, executive projects in 22 states

    Equally critical was Tinubu’s intervention. People forget that at the time of former Governor Rotimi Akeredolu’s death, the APC in Ondo was riven with factions. Many commissioners were opposed to Aiyedatiwa taking over and openly contemptuous of his person. It took the president entering the fray to get even the most bitter foes to back down.

    The result was a house that went into battle with common purpose as opposed to its rivals who offered only anaemic resistance. Any talk of them being cheated, therefore. is just the usual grandstanding of Nigerian election losers.

    The next major electoral contest in the country would be Anambra’s gubernatorial poll in November 2025. The state is the spiritual home of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) which has governed it for the past 21 years. It is also the home state of Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate, Peter Obi. He won here by a landslide in the 2023 election. But that pattern wasn’t repeated in the legislative and local polls that followed.

    Aside APGA, only the PDP, APC and LP have a realistic chance of denying incumbent Chukwuma Soludo a second term. Nigerians can begin to take the talk of a one-party state seriously if, against all odds, APC manages to capture the state. Even with all the might of the party at the centre behind its local arm, not many would be placing their money on such a bet.

    If Nigeria were to suddenly become a one-party state much of the credit should go to a clueless opposition. It wouldn’t just be down to the Machiavellian manoeuvrings of APC leaders.

    The opposition dream of taking power but are not offering fresh ideas to energise a lethargic electorate. Rather than focusing on the future they spend their days whining about a 2023 loss that is now historic and would never be upturned. Beyond scaremongering, hurling abuse and spewing hate, they don’t offer anything that makes them a more attractive proposition that the government in power.

    Take, for instance, Tinubu’s tax reform bills, which have stirred up some passion in polity. Rather than coming up with credible reasons for opposing them, someone like New Nigerian Peoples’ Party (NNPP) leader, Rabiu Kwankwaso, who aspires to be president, descended into parochial regional rhetoric. He accused ‘Lagos boys of trying to recolonise the North.’

    Even as they scheme with an eye on 2027, the opposition would still be held down by a heavy weight of deadwood. Most Nigerians have come to accept that there’s not much that separates the major parties in terms of ideology. This belief is supported by the regularity with which politicians switch platforms without the least discomfort or embarrassment. The one, who derided APC yesterday as a congregation of demons, thinks nothing of leading the choir of devils next day.

    Only a new generation of leaders can rescue the opposition. As long as they are held captive by egotistic figures in their dotage, who insist on leading them, they would be viewed by voters as more of the same.

    Even more deadly is their refusal to take a look at themselves, their methods and the product they are selling. Rather than take accountability for their mistakes, they remain stuck in the unproductive exercise of blaming the electoral umpire.

    I am certain that if APC were offered the chance to govern all 36 states and the federal government, they would seize it with both hands. Every party wants to win. That is why those, like governors, who make the most noise about the one-party threat, gladly superintend local government elections in which their parties always win 100%! One-party system is bad at federal level, but just great at state level. Such grand hypocrisy!

    They only way a ruling party can be stopped from achieving overarching dominance in the country, is by the opposition making an alternative pitch to the electorate. So far they’ve failed woefully in this regard and become key enablers of the trip to the supposedly much feared one-party destination.