The Nation Newspaper

Category: Hakeem Baba-Ahmed

  • Do they know?

    Do they know?

    If something is adjustable, sooner or later it will need adjusting–Max Frisch

    Along with six friends, I watched television footage of  the crowds that cheered Chief James Ibori as he drove on the streets on his return home last week  after his  prison service in the United Kingdom. There was pronounced silence as we watched young and old struggle to catch a glimpse of the man. Like us, it was obvious that  many in the crowds that followed his sport utility vehicle (SUV) at close quarters did not believe it was indeed Ibori until he, at a point, emerged from the top of his (SUV) to show an apparently well-fed and healthy-looking former  governor. There was a long silence after the spectacle  had we just watched, broken by a question we all thought was rhetorical: “Do these people know what Chief  Ibori was, and what he  did?” What followed was an animated and passionate argument that laid bare many of the skeletons in our nation’s cupboard. Our fundamental values as people are apparently as varied and questionable as we choose to make them. The lady who asked the question was not going to be ignored. She asked again if this is the typically Nigerian rent-a-crowd, or a spontaneous and genuine outpouring of joy among people whose hero had retuned after being jailed in a foreign country for stealing, in all probability, their commonwealth.

    In a few exchanges, arguments that corruption is a Nigerian elite affair, a matter of personal opinion, a  phenomenon determined by a cultural perspective or an effective value redistribution mechanism which anchors political power competed for hearing and dominance. There was no arguing away the reality before all Nigerians: either Chief Ibori is an extraordinarily likable politician who could do no wrong by his people, or the concept of private plunder of public resources is unknown where he came from. It was relatively easy to tick-off familiar arguments and refrain from many parts of the Niger Delta region, such as those that make heroes of locals who ‘liberate’, appropriate’ or ‘personalise’ the communities’ assets in oil and gas, as opposed to ‘strangers’ from the rest of Nigeria and the world who ‘steal’ it under official cover. People form the Niger Delta who will feel insulted by this criminal conclusion were not at the airport and road sides holding up placards saying ‘no to corrupt politicians’. By default, voices that agonised over the bleeding of communities by strongmen in the Niger Delta had submitted to a narrative that the use of public office or violence to divert massive resources was tolerable if it was done by locals. If half of the energy devoted to making the case for larger control of revenues by local communities  had been directed at fighting corruption that stole huge resources from the same communities by politicians, the Delta region will not so viciously offend all standards of just and equitable development.

    Chief Ibori’s return will open up many uncomfortable points in debates regarding the place of official corruption in our lives. There will be those that will insist that the fight against corruption is an elite affair, between those who have not amassed wealth illegally either because they could not, or were deeply predisposed against it, on the one hand, and those who see the acquisition of illegal wealth as a normal and essential element of acquiring power and serving the people. They will point at the verifiable fact that no Nigerian politician has ever acquired power without spending huge resources, most of which will not stand up to close legal scrutiny. That is the investment in an enterprise with the surest guarantee for returns. The distance between stolen wealth and productive activities of the vast majority of citizens make it difficult to raise requisite levels of passion and anger against the pillage of common resources. What is endemic is the pervasive and residual resentment of the rich, fuelled by suspicion that all wealth is stolen. The popular clamour to humiliate the rich   by any means   available is constantly hounded by deep-seated convictions that everyone will be corrupt if they get the opportunities.

    Do Nigerians know the nature of the damage which systemic corruption does to their lives and the nation, or do they think the fight against corruption is largely a ploy by some elite to settle scores? Not to answer the first question in the affirmative will be to insult everything we value: our religious faiths and other key social values, our politicians who daily remind us that our strengths and assets have been bled dry by corruption, and our indignation at the situation we face daily when we have to submit to corruption. It is the second question which our recent experiences and current circumstances has difficult answers. This administration came to power to fight corruption, and we have a long list of suspects on trial or under investigation to prove it. If therefore, a committed supporter of the current campaign against corruption asks if the cheering crowd that welcomed Ibori knew what he was and what they were involved in, he should be prepared to answer some difficult questions as well. Do our leaders know that corruption at lower levels, the type that touches every citizen still thrives without fear or cover. Do they know that commercial drivers routinely and openly hand over money to police and other army of enforcers and regulators on our roads in full view of citizen passengers who duly note that nothing has changed? Do they know that every transaction, every activity that is service  is still substantially fueled by bribes and inducements?

    There is a massive disconnect between the fight President Buhari’s government is waging against corruption and the life of the Nigerian who has long readjusted to living with bribery, inducement, cheating, bending of rules, impunity and a host  of other practices that suggest that only those who steal billions are corrupt. The difficulties imposed by an economy in recession make cheerleading the fight against corruption more difficult. Poor citizens ask if government knows how difficult life has become; why the cost of palm oil, matches, sugar and garri rise literally by the day and no one does anything about it. School fees, diesel, medications, rent, transport and every other essentials are becoming unaffordable. The state is receding at a dangerous rate from many Nigerians, Many among whom now provide their own security, basic infrastructure and other essentials of life. When you do this on a permanent basis, it is difficult to have much sympathy for the case that everyone should live within their means. It does not help the administration’s cause when much mileage is made against suspicion that it is reluctant to look too critically at its own side in a nation where saints and sinners wear the same faces, but can be told apart with a strong will and a commitment to expose corruption.

    Some weeks ago, Vice President Osinbajo appealed to Nigerians to dislike corruption in all its ramifications, or the battle against it is as good as lost. This an important attempt to hit corruption where it hurts most: in those circles where wealth and power bulldoze their ways into our adulating and weak hearts. You have to feel for a President whose singular hallmark has been the fight against corruption, and a Deputy who doubles as a priest, that they stand at a point where they could persuade Nigerians to stay overwhelmingly loyal to the fight against corruption, or one that could register an irretrievable loss. If the Buhari administration will not win the fight against corruption, it is going to be difficult to see who will. If it will win this war, this administration needs to re-strategize and re-focus on value change and an aggressive campaign to stop small scale corruption which citizens live with. If a citizen cannot be saved from paying bribes for just about everything of value, he is unlikely to see any wrong in Chief James Ibori’s life. The battle for 2019 will test the effectiveness of the anti-corruption campaign. If billions or trillion are going to have to be spent by politicians and their backers in business they will have to steal it now.

     

    • I am about to take a break to serve the nation in another capacity. I will hope that there is still room for me in the paper and your attention when I resume. I thank you for reading me and giving me the courage to share my thought with you.

    Good bye

     

  • Restarting the North again

    Restarting the North again

    If you don’t know when you have been spat on, it does not matter too much what else you think you know – Ruth Shays

    Northern governors last week attempted a feat the region had long jettisoned: bringing together its assets under one roof to count its strengths and weaknesses. The governors and senior officials went beyond the routine and ritual of periodically assembling for a few days in Kaduna, mostly to run away from begging and complaining citizens. This time, they set for themselves the challenging task of putting the region’s security challenges on the table and reaching out to traditional rulers and groups of elders to help examine just where to begin to deal with its multiple manifestations. When you remember that a few years ago, Northern governors were literally forced to stop meetings in Kaduna, or attend any event in the symbolically-important Arewa House by youths who harassed them with such abandon, this particular meeting which had an impressive attendance will be recorded as an achievement for holding at all. It was even more remarkable that governors accepted to tap into the perspectives and experience of traditional rulers, that layer that hovers between uncomfortable submission to elected politicians the age of their offspring or younger brothers, and leveraging on the considerable opportunities that exist outside their narrow formal environments to be heard. They even tacitly accepted that associations of elderly northerners who had played their parts many times over in the affairs of the region and the nation had something of value to say in the search for solution.

    The Governor of Borno State who is the Chairman of the Northern Governors Forum spoke with such passion, anger and lamentation over the state of the North. It was obvious that the governors had decided to do something different this time. The anger was substantially directed at the North, the region with the size, the people and the potential to be the richest in the nation, and to feed the entire West Africa. It is not any such thing today. It is, instead, the wretched region, derided and despised for begging for its existence and contributing nothing but trouble by the rest of Nigeria. Its people are angry and terrified by its numerous security challenges. Ten million of its young are beggars, and millions more will not receive any type of education or skills to prepare them for productive adult lives. Thousands of its people have died and are dying from preventable security threats, and millions will be victims of the Boko Haram insurgency for many years to come, or for entire lives. The North is virtually de-industrialised, its basic infrastructure decaying beyond rehabilitation. Desperately poor communities fight each other for every reason except those that improve their economic well-being. The solid show of  political unity demonstrated with the election of President Muhammadu Buhari in 2015 is threatening to unravel, as shadowy attackers under the generic identity of Fulani herders threaten ethno-religious harmony in many parts of the North, providing huge opportunities to exploit and regenerate dormant hostilities. The North that protected its turf as one unit with such confidence and competence in the First Republic is a pathetic shadow, with 19 governments, bureaucracies and rulers, spending resources it does not produce on governments, not the people.

    This was the North whose political leaders, all 19 of them, decided to look critically at a region that is regressing at such a rapid rate that it has become a major threat to itself and the rest of the nation, and even Africa. Well, they got an earful from the distinguished assemblage in turbans and robes and grey hairs on heads in their 80s and 90s.The Sultan of Sokoto advised on the values of justice and honesty as foundations of good governance and security. The Shehu of Borno painted a most distressing picture of the devastation being wrecked by the retreating Boko Haram insurgency. Emir of Kano made a strong case for far-reaching social reforms as solution to the deep-seated problems of the North which feed insecurity. Other traditional rulers offered advice on dealing with cultural pluralism, threats and strengthening governance structures. Elders took governors on a journey to a past which held together because leaders put premium on justice, inclusiveness and sacrifices. They reminded governors of imperatives of lowering boundaries, adopting pan-Northern policies and programmes and regenerating the dilapidated assets of the North. They held governors responsible for exerting pressure on the Federal Government to accord priority to adequate investments in agriculture, solid mineral development and basic infrastructure in the North as rights and not as a favour to northerners. They drew attention to energetic efforts of governors from the Southwest to build foundations for regional development and political unity. They pointed to multiple security threats and challenges from many parts of the nation fed by the desire to corner more resources, while the North fights itself and fritters away its bountiful opportunities. They lamented the alarming and widening gaps between the North and the rest of Nigeria in education, wealth creation, security and quality of life.

    Remarkably, there was also substantial yielding of grounds around boundaries and turfs. Governor Nasir el-Rufai submitted to a meeting that had hinted that insecurity in any part of the North is a northern problem through a detailed briefing on challenges and responses of his government on the Shia, cattle rustling and Southern Kaduna. Reactions to his briefing supported the view that northern leaders recognise that developments involving the Shia (or as he insisted, the IMN), and Southern Kaduna represented major threats to the whole North and the nation. Not one voice failed to support the enforcement of the law against people and groups who defy it, whatever religious garb they wear, or their status. A few, however advised on the values of exploring additional avenues and opportunities to manage conflicts. Dealing with overlapping responsibilities on security, law and order between federal and state governments is a major problem, and in both the Shia and Southern Kaduna issues, the need for greater synergy and collaboration was identified as a major issue that northern governors should take up with the Federal Government.

    The outcome of the meeting, the next day when the governors met alone, suggested that they may have decided on a number of steps that were best left unannounced. Some of the observations and  decisions they made public must have raised a few eyebrows, including the categorical statement that the Fulani suspected of involvement in fights with farming communities are from other countries in West Africa. Even making allowances for the possibility that the governors have the evidence to support this, it is a cause of concern that the conclusion could absolve from suspicion, the huge Fulani population which is entirely Nigerian in fights with communities. Fulani herders, Nigerian and foreign, will now be subjected to much closer scrutiny and potential abuse to show evidence of nationality. The onus to secure borders and prevent illegal entry for foreign Fulani has now been shifted to the Federal Government, a move that will neither improve border security nor the security of communities in the near future. Conflict resolution efforts and peace building will have to meander through a position which suggests that Fulani who should be involved are foreigners. Communities which still fear Fulani attacks will not find much comfort in the position that their adversaries are from other countries, and they may suspect that attempts are being made to push responsibilities further away.

    In any case, northern governors have made the commendable efforts to assume primary responsibility for the security of citizens. They have raised hopes that must be met, because the future of the North is severely threatened by unacceptable levels of poverty and crippling insecurity that compounds poverty. The North has never been as politically unified in partisan terms as it is today, with only two states in the hand of the PDP. If APC, with control of the executive and legislature at the federal level as well as 17 of 19 northern states cannot make a radical difference in the lives of northerners in the next one year, it is very likely that it will find it difficult to sell itself in 2019. If northern governors cannot find common grounds and the will to fight religious extremism, ethno-religious conflicts, youth unemployment, banditry, kidnappings, drugs and violence among youths, they would go down in history as the set who lost the North irretrievably. Last week, they showed that they do not want this place in history. They need help to restart the North.

     

  • This democracy

    This democracy

    The opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth – Niels Bohr

    In the space of a week, the expression of the people’s will to be governed by people they elect showed three different faces. Vastly different nations, political contexts and democratic systems in Nigeria, The Gambia and United States of America presented major variants of a system of governance that sends back many of its students to drawing boards. In Nigeria, a routine constitutional requirement that presidents proceeding on leave notify the legislature and submit the leadership of the nation to deputies was met by President Muhammadu Buhari as he left the country for 10-day leave and medical attention. A few years ago, the failure of the late President Umaru Yar’Adua to comply with this requirement plunged the country into a constitutional crisis of such proportions; it required a rare national consensus and ingenious legal brinkmanship to push the nation beyond. In The Gambia, the popular will required a hefty push from barrels of the gun to survive a major setback. In the USA, a president-elect who had defied all conventional wisdom to win was sworn in to lead a nation that is deeply divided over the elections that produced him.

    The elections of 2015 in Nigeria broke with tradition in many respects. The results were not widely and violently disputed. An incumbent president and a dominant party were defeated, and they yielded power to those elected in a seamless transition. It is difficult to remember that in 2010, Vice President Goodluck Jonathan only assumed the office of President after a frightful attempt to create obstacles to the activation of constitutional requirements, a transition that represented a triumph of elite consensus around constitutionalism and evidence of a maturing democracy. One year later, the electoral mandate he won was stained with the blood of hundreds of victims of election violence which followed the elections. Nigerians were reminded of the fragility of their democratic process, and you could not fault those who wondered if it will ever be free of the damaging limitations which elections progressively subjected it to. The next general election then restored confidence that Nigerians could organise credible elections and strengthen the foundations of the democratic process. Those foundations allowed a president to leave the country in the hands of his deputy who himself was out of the country at the time, and hardly anyone batted an eyelid.

    Even as he left the nation in the hands of Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, Buhari was aware that the Nigerian military he had despatched to shore up the popular will of the people of The Gambia was on its way. Nigeria was executing the mandate of nations in the ECOWAS sub region to enforce, if necessary, the will of the citizens of a tiny nation whose landmark decision to reject a leader who was in power for 20 years was in danger of being repudiated. The Gambia was going to test the commitment of many African leaders to the democratic process, but Jammeh may not have been alone in underrating the capacity of Africans to influence the course of history in other nations. Many Africans had thought the freedom to travel long distances to fight on foreign soils and impose different orders belonged only to the most powerful nations, such as US, EU countries and Russia. There were many who hoped that the intense lobby of Jammeh will make him budge, because they did not believe that it was prudent and expedient for countries, such as Nigeria to wage wars in The Gambia over election disputes.

    As it turned out, the threat of the use of force was precisely what was needed to save the democratic process in The Gambia. Tragically, Jammeh shunned the fresh examples of John Mahama and Goodluck Jonathan, but while he shut out the voices of Gambians, he could not ignore the drums of war. A man who could have written his own political future ended up with one imposed on him, even with the elaborate assurances of the ECOWAS, AU and UN that he will be free of persecution. Gambian democracy has been rescued by outsiders who stood with a majority of voters. What does this say of the future of the democratic process in many African countries which, Gambia or not, will experience disputes over election outcomes? Is The Gambia a fluke or a standard? What will be the benchmark for disputes that should force nations to move into action, including the threat or use of force? Can Africans sustain armed threats or use of force against leaders who defy popular will in places, such as East and Central Africa?

    It is tempting to believe that the new Gambian president will respond to the historic decision of Gambians to choose him over Jammeh, as well as the resolve of African nations and their allies to enforce that decision, with good governance and a constant reminder of the experience of Jammeh. He will be challenged with the daunting task of liberalising the political environment that bore the character of Jammeh’s prolonged stay in power, and rebuilding an economy that needs fresh confidence and massive investment. The Gambia’s rescued democratic processes will be closely policed by neighbouring Senegal and other regional powers, such as Nigeria. The other major dimension of The Gambia experience is that it places a major burden on shoulders of leaders that went out on a limb to rescue the will of the Gambian people. Big nations, such as Nigeria and Ghana will now have to behave with as little blemish as possible, not just because they raised the bar in The Gambia, but because their own messy disputes around election results will almost certainly not be resolved by direct foreign intervention. They cannot afford to yield the higher ground to nations with a little more muscle than The Gambia, where disputes could create real threats of civil wars if foreign intervention is resisted by parties to disputes.

    While Africans were celebrating a victory of sorts, one that required the threat of war to enforce an electoral verdict, a new President was being sworn-in in America. The event was as profound as the swearing in of a black president eight years earlier. In 2008, the American son of an African student became president of the US, suggesting that American people and democracy had matured to a point where race played second fiddle to merit. After eight years, Obama’s dignified presidency was handed to a man who will fit the tag of serial offender of all known and unknown sensitivities Americans and the world have come to associate with responsible leadership. A sulking, powerful layer of US voters dragged the presidency from convention and handed it over to a man who offended races, religions, neighbours, allies, women, the media, the intelligence community and just about everyone or thing that can be tweeted into anger or fear. A supreme irony was lost to the world at a time a candidate who had threatened to reject an electoral verdict from US voters if he lost, was being sworn-in, and another in Africa who actually rejected the verdict of voters in his country was being forced to yield to popular vote. It may be just an amusing, academic question to ask what could have happened if Trump had lost the elections and carried out his threat to reject the result. A legitimate question to ask will be if Trump’s heresy had in any way bolstered Jammeh?

    US voters got what they wanted. Only time will tell if that will be what the Americans need to reunite a divided nation, with major segments angry and suspicious that they will be engaged in bruising fights with a president who thinks his mandate is an endorsement of everything he is and of his plans. The world now waits to see the new face of America, an exercise that is tasking, to say the least, because it worries that the future will demand major painful adjustments within the very little room available. People of The Gambia were handed a reprieve, but will now hope that subsequent elections will not require foreign warships and boots to enforce their will. Africans improved their ranking in the league of champions of the democratic system, and will now hope that The Gambia will represent a strong threshold that will determine future conduct on the continent. Nigerians have been further committed to the support of the democratic process, and will now be continuously reminded that you cannot export what you do not have yourself.

  • A day in Maiduguri

    A day in Maiduguri

    Cross the river in a crowd and the crocodile won’t eat you – African proverb

    I was part of a delegation of Northern Elders Forum that visited the Borno State capital, Maiduguri, last week. The visit lasted all of one day, but it revealed an entire future that is both inspiring and frightening. The last time a delegation of the Forum visited Maiduguri was about three years ago, and it barely managed to leave the beleaguered city with some dignity because President Jonathan’s State of Emergency order was made on its first day in Maiduguri. There was no such cause for panic this time. The short stay was informed by the challenges of age and conditions of people well past use-before dates, and a loaded programme designed to engage major stakeholders, political and community leaders as well as victims. A day was long enough to see the outlines of a disaster in transition, and enough to judge the progress of communities and a nation through an uncertain future.

    Surreal is one way of describing the overall feeling you get when you look deep into the faces and soul of Maiduguri. The city which witnessed the tipping point in the history of the insurgency and then went through six years of agony is bravely attempting to come back to life although the war is far from over, it is stretched beyond imaginable limits with more than one and a half  million internally displaced people in homes and camps, the odd suicide bomb goes off now and then, soldiers and other security personnel live on  constant alert, neighbours closely scrutinise each other, and the global community attempts to find entry points into one of the biggest humanitarian disasters in recent human history. In this city where families were split into insurgents and victims, or scattered into varied circumstances, there are children who will never know the love of parents. Many did not know electricity until the last two years. Many have spent years out of school or lived under care, or no care at all. Many have seen deaths and other psychologically-traumatising experiences that require intense counselling and other therapies they will never get. Children under 10 in Maiduguri have grown up knowing what bullets and bombs sound like. In 20 years, they will be adults, the people who will determine the way all others live.

    Engaging the governor and senior public officials, you get the distinct impression of leaders who believe they have won decisive battles by not surrendering to the insurgency. You see confidence among public officials who could not visit home in towns and villages this time last year, and a few whose towns are still not easily accessible. You see evidence of a leadership made up of Muslims and Christians bonded by the realisation that Boko Haram makes all faiths equal victims. The governor’s confidence belies his recent altercation with NGOs and relief organisations, the challenges of meandering through the forest of federal and state agencies as well as frustrations over the daily struggle to balance current needs of citizens against rebuilding a context for a secure and productive future. The relief over the recent successes of the military campaign in Sambisa forest is palpable, and you get the impression that Borno State people will vote for President Muhammadu Buhari as many times as he will ask for their support. You will not detect a feeling that they feel abandoned, but the leadership and citizens of Borno are quick to appreciate gratitude for even token gestures that assure them that they are not alone as they walk away from a murderous insurgency into a future full of challenges.

    The spectacle of dignified splendour around the Shehu of Bornu barely conceals the reality that this ancient civilisation has been traumatised and squeezed into Maiduguri by an insurgency whose origin and development it disowns at every opportunity. The Shehu’s empire substantially hangs around his palace, with subordinates chased out of palaces, while government offices, schools, hospitals, basic social and economic infrastructure, homes, mosques and churches have all largely been destroyed. If you thought the Shehu’s assertion that Borno will rise again was conjured bravado, you are forced into doubt as you see hundreds of young people outside his palace watching a football match, the number of young people who run towards any siren to raise clenched fists in greetings and adulation, or the number of school children (including, significantly, school-age girls) who squeeze through heavy traffic to go to school, or the relaxed faces on streets even when no one is certain that the next person may not be concealing a bomb.

    The faces of resistance are represented in elders and elite who have stayed behind to resist this assault either because they have no choice or because they chose to risk staying put in Maiduguri. It is also represented by the mostly young Civilian JTF, that precocious group that forced its way into a war, making the difference by exposing relations, neighbours and suspects, providing an invaluable compass in the fight and paying a very high price for its effort. Borno Elders Forum serves as the voice and vanguard of the community, often irritating or serially annoying authority at all levels by its insistence that there are right ways of dealing with security challenges and the rights and dignity of citizens. These elders paid their dues to the Nigerian state at many levels, and they will not abandon the belief that it is possible to re-engineer a Nigeria with Borno as a pillar.

    In the Northeast generally, and in Borno State in particular, everyone speaks in statistics. You will hear that there are over 2m IDPs in the region, only 10 per cent of whom live in camps. The numbers increase literally by the day, as the military dislodge more insurgents and free captive populations. There are anywhere between fifty and one hundred thousand young orphans, a curious phenomenon in an African context until you are reminded that no one has the space or resources to give them a home. Many of the IDPs are children or relations of insurgents who are shunned with such vehemence, they require special protection. More than half of school-age children have not been to school in the last five years. Ninety per cent of the IDPs living with families receive no assistance, nor do their host families. Their future depends largely on when towns and villages can be secured, when basic infrastructures including houses are rebuilt and when the means of production are made available. The statistics relating to poverty levels, malnourishment, juvenile delinquency, crimes and vulnerability of women and children and even the possibility of the prolongation or mutation of the insurgency can safely be marked up in the next few months, even with increased support, coordination and resources. The .2m IDPs who will be released into the population if the Government of Borno State goes ahead with its plans to close down all IDP camps in May this year, will pose additional problems for security and victims’ management.

    Maiduguri is the epicentre of devastation, the magnitude of which the nation is yet to fully grasp. At this stage, only a few things are certain: the resolve of the government of Nigeria to degrade the insurgency to a point where it is no longer a credible threat; the determination of the leaders and the communities in the Northeast to claw their ways into a rebuilt future; the determination of international relief and humanitarian organisations and friendly nations and many Nigerian NGOs to sustain the difficult tasks of reaching the vulnerable and the needy; and finally, a hugely uncertain future for millions of people in Nigeria and neighbouring countries. The pace and tempo of the military campaign must be sustained and matched by parallel efforts at rehabilitation, reintegration and reconstruction. In the last few months, the Federal Government has made improvements in the manner it coordinates activities of governments and agencies involved in managing a major humanitarian disaster. Still, the domestication of the Kampala Declaration will vastly improve the legal and policy framework for protecting and assisting IDPs. The people of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states and many parts of the North have lived with a nightmare for many years. Even if the insurgency is comprehensively defeated soon, this will only mark the beginning of another long and tasking challenge to rebuild lives and livelihoods. In Maiduguri, we saw signs among the population that there is hope for a safe and secure future. It is not just their future, because every Nigerian lives in Maiduguri.

  • How to make 2017 count

    How to make 2017 count

    Politics, a strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles – Ambrose Bierce

    All that needed to be said about the disappointments and achievements of year 2016 have been said. The government of President Muhammadu Buhari acknowledged that it had substantially under-performed, blaming factors which predated it, as well as new, unforeseen developments that adversely affected the economy and national security. It celebrated substantial progress in the fight against Boko Haram, and even a trickling of success in the return of the Chibok girls as major successes. The campaign against corruption had been flagged, but was being challenged by cynicism over its popularity in circles around the President as well as frustrating limitations in the judiciary and the legislature. Governance below the federal level had avoided much national scrutiny, but citizens in states had lived with daily excuses from governors echoing the national lamentations over collapsed revenues. Many citizens were bewildered by state governments that did not pay salaries and pensions, but found the means to undertake eye-catching projects. Governors had taken refuge behind the massive profile and clout of the Buhari federal administration to avoid being accountable. Weak political opposition had created the context for disturbing complacency and massive intra-party disputes. The year 2017 will present an opportunity to leaders and the nation to demonstrate that there is political will and faith behind a nation facing one of its biggest challenges. If that opportunity will not be lost, some of these need to be accorded priority.

     

    • Rediscover the mission of leadership

    Widespread disenchantment with poor governance and weak political will combined with the appearance of a credible alternative that could lead to national rebirth to produce the Buhari administration. The majority of Nigerians voted for a leadership that was going to fight and defeat insurgents, stop corruption, give jobs to young people and create an economy that did not count its successes in the number of billionaires it created. Most Nigerians believed Buhari will lead the nation to recover its strengths and punish those who bled its unity and resources. His administration was going to be different, the expression of a popular demand behind the need to do things differently. Its worst enemies feared that it will be a tough administration in the character of the leader, and certainly did not envisage that it will be just another administration waiting for elections to seek another mandate. President Buhari and the APC need to rediscover their mission, even if the real challenges of governance have made the re-invention of that messianic aura largely problematic. In plain terms, Buhari cannot be just another President.

     

    • Create a sense of urgency

    If there has been a consistent negative trait associated with the Buhari administration, it must be that it routinely takes too long to do too little, or nothing at all. Incredible lethargy and pronounced tardiness in decision-making have long silenced excuses that the need to be meticulous and avoid past mistakes justify delays. In practical terms, the APC has only about a year left to make a telling difference in the quality of leadership which it offers Nigerians. Outside the military and one or two of its agencies, all the basic institutions of state operate without zeal or speed, marking time under an administration that cannot afford to lose a day seemingly sitting on its hands. The nation’s challenges demand a pervasive sense of emergency in the manner they are handled. Leaders cannot afford convenience and luxury of delays, because citizens will believe that they either have no solutions, or do not care enough to find solutions.

     

    • Change tactics

    At this stage in the life of the administration, it should be seriously considering options in its tactics in achieving key goals. Where the administration lacks financial resources to tackle problems, it should tap the tremendous intellectual and other human resources available to it to find solutions to many social problems. It should re-visit the value of involving greater say for high quality private sector input into the management of the economy. The nation’s military cannot fight and win victories against all internal security challenges. Many of these problems require only minimal involvement of military and other security assets to contain, but their resolution requires the deployment of strong political will and imaginative utilisation of political options. Fighting corruption requires creating strong linkages with other arms of government, as legislators and the judiciary will support or resist the fight against corruption largely on the degree to which they feel they are not primarily set up as its targets. A long-term perspective needs to be employed in this fight against a deeply-entrenched scourge, and public support has to be vigorously cultivated to survive the appearance that this is a partisan issue.

     

    • Re-prioritise

    Massive revenue shortfalls and limited foreign investment should compel a review of priorities and some difficult choices. There are evident positive consequences of the recession which has forced restrictions on imports of particularly food items. These are in markedly improved outputs by mostly small scale farmers that can be sustained with some encouragement through enlightened policies and incentives to producers. The rising cost of living is felt more by the elite and urban populations, and there may be some advantages in focusing more on the rural poor who, in any case, is the backbone of the APC administration. Social intervention policies may deliver on election promises, but poor design and faulty implementation as well as their potential for deepening partisan divides and political alienation and high costs of administration could seriously detract from their impact. Between now and the middle of next year, the political benefits of N-Power and cash handouts may be difficult to quantify and translate into political capital. The billions spent on them on the other hand could be re-assigned towards areas with greater multiplier effects and social support. Funding of government activities is still enslaved to a process that demands that every agency must be funded, even if all it does is to pay salaries. Within this year, the government can undertake a comprehensive review of its size, commitments and resources, not in the manner of the so-called Oronsaye report that suggests that size can be reduced without respect for laws or social consequences, but in a manner that outlines a short and long-term restructuring that will produce an affordable government at the centre, and state governments that do not exist only to pay salaries. Rehabilitation and expansion of critical infrastructure and adoption of policies that allow private sector access to managing roads, airports and seaports should be given priorities.

     

    • Address quality of management

    The nation will forgive President Buhari for making wrong choices in appointment of ministers and key aides, but it will not tolerate a continuation of a team that has created near-universal consensus as performing well below one that should actualise his vision. It cannot be the easiest of jobs working under the imposing shadow of President Buhari, with little resources and institutions and processes of governance and bureaucracies that appear never to have known what happened in 2015, but a few have stood out, while many have only created an image of poor decision-making and a reluctance to revisit mistakes around the President. Nothing much will change in terms of rediscovery of the administration’s mission, creating a stronger momentum for greater impact, taking initiatives, setting new goals and achieving them or inspiring a lethargic bureaucracy to respond to the demands of improved service delivery under the current management team of the President. The quality of people involved in running state administrations is quite possibly one of the worst in the nation’s history. There are very few change agents and champions in administrations that came to power promising change.

     

    • Be political

    This time next year, the APC will have a stronger opposition, much of it made up of people who laboured with President Buhari to create the APC. His party will require very strong muscles to limit the damage that will become evident as powerful and ambitious party men do what was done to the PDP in 2013 and 2014. President Buhari will be put under tremendous pressure to make his plans for 2019 known, and this will cause further turbulence within his party, whatever he decides. This is the time to comprehensively survey the terrain and begin to build, or rebuild platforms, alliances and new territories in hitherto hostile areas. The intimate linkages between partisan politics and  national security will be made prominent as politicians calculate what their assets are in the fight for control of the nation in 2019. The President could slow down or head-off a crisis involving massive depletions of powerful allies by engineering fresh concessions that gives them attractive incentives to stay close. He could also commence a delicate process of grooming and empowering a potential successor for the 2019 elections, in the event that he decides not to run.

  • Pretentious nebulous verbosity?

    Pretentious nebulous verbosity?

    Like a chameleon: one eye on the future, one eye on the past
    – Malagasy proverb

    Professor Jibrin Ibrahim, the Friday back page columnist of the Daily Trust, wrote a preview contribution under the title, ‘2017 Trend Analysis and the Contours of Inertia’. In an Internet group we belong to, the respected law professor, Awwal Yadudu, took up Jibrin on his projection that the Shia issue could represent the major security problem in 2017 and on the value of projections generally, concluding with a reference to the book by A. Stanislav, Social Science as Sorcery (1972), described by Wikipedia as an indictment of “pretentious nebulous verbosity which is endemic in modern social sciences”.

    Except for the rude reminder represented by Donald Trump’s victory to the effect that all received wisdom should be interrogated, Stanislav’s book here is really anachronistic. Projections and trend analyses are widely-used and perfectly legitimate tools employed by all policy and decision makers in governance and the economy. Looking ahead is risky but rewarding if you get at least some of the projections right. The material below was what I published around this time last year, representing my understanding of key issues that the nation will deal with in 2016. I will leave you to judge, with the benefits of hindsight, if it represents pretentious nebulous verbosity. Before you do that please join me to pray for the soul of Malam Sanusi Abubakar, an economist who soiled his boots in the best traditions of an activist. May Allah grant him Aljanna.

    Happy New Year.

     

    2016: A watch list

    This year will define the basic character of the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari and highlight opportunities and limitations that will challenge the administration and the nation. In this first, full working year of President Buhari, a number of major issues should be kept under watch.

    • The economy

    The Nigerian economy will be severely challenged in 2016. The dramatic fall in crude prices and uncertainties around attracting increased foreign investment will slow down growth. Plugging major leakages in revenue collection could improve available funds, but institutions involved in raising revenues need to be strengthened and their capacities improved. The pro-poor provisions in the 2016 budget are ambitious and bold, but their successful implementation will be predicated on quality conceptualisation, planning and sustainability. Major fiscal and monetary policy decisions will represent areas of intense interest, as all social segments will feel the effects of an economy that will go through a difficult period. APC and PDP legislators will test their strengths on budget debates, and the legislature as a whole may fight against some of its provisions which affect them.

    • Security

    The Boko Haram insurgency is damaged, but not crippled to a point where it will not continue to threaten population. There are questions about the credibility of the military’s successes, principally because of conflicting narratives over the presence of insurgents in Sambisa forest, in towns and villages as well as cells in many areas that can strike with guns or suicide bombs. The captive Chibok girls will continue to haunt the fight against Boko Haram, and managing two million IDPs will be a major challenge for the administration.

    The investigation of former militant leaders will trigger a resurgence of violent activity in the Niger Delta. Increased military presence in the area will pitch the militants and the military in direct confrontations under an administration determined to stamp its authority against violence. The Biafra agitation will be tested in terms of its support and capacity to take on the Nigerian state, with the ongoing trials of its leaders. The Shiite movement in the North will continue to be a source of stress and tension, and the manner the state handles the detention and trial of its leader will be a major factor in determining future Shiite-government relations. Managing national security in the context of increasingly limited resources will be a major problem for the administration.

    • Fighting corruption

    The administration enjoys popular support in its fight against corruption. Spectacular revelations about massive theft of public funds in many sectors of the economy suggest that many high profile individuals, including some who are pillars of the ruling party investigated and prosecuted. There are concerns over the degree to which the legislature will support the President in this ever-expanding campaign, with many legislators likely to be fingered, or have their cases re-opened. There are also legitimate concerns regarding the integrity and capacity of the judiciary to process possibly hundreds of cases. The possibility of the state being stonewalled by a weak and compromised judiciary and powerful interests with considerable mileage in avoiding penalties is real. Nigerians  will be frustrated at the pace of investigations and trials, and there is a genuine possibility that too much of the administration’s time and energy will be devoted to pursuing corruption cases at the expense of imaginative and productive policies that should rebuild the economy and strengthen institutions of governance.

    • Public institutions

    The Buhari administration inherited weak and compromised public institutions that are vital to re-engineering the economy, plugging leakages and reducing corruption. It will need to radically improve basic policing institutions to turn the tide against crime and internal security challenges. The public service has been very badly damaged by the previous administration, and it will need an extensive review of its basic philosophy, operations and leadership to bring it up to the required level as the key institution in protecting public interest and serving as the foundation of good governance.

    • Governance and politics

    The real character of the All Progressives Congress (APC) will begin to show as the spoils of victory are distributed and the real business of running the country becomes the major focus. Key elements in the APC, such as the character and persona of President Buhari, the often-conflicting interests of very powerful office-holders who hold varied opinions over the real meaning of the ‘change’ mantra, the chieftains from parties who led and submitted to the merger, and Nigerians who expect dramatic and quality changes in the conditions of their lives will clash or reinforce each other this year. The manner President Buhari relates with the legislature, particularly the Senate, will be an important factor in the degree to which he succeeds in pushing through critical legislation, or is frustrated in the fight against corruption.

    Disgruntled party chieftains can be ignored only up to a point. The lessons from the damage done to the defeated PDP by its members who defected with much of its assets will need to be carefully read and understood. Intra-party disputes will become more pronounced, and will be made worse unless the party is made strong and relevant by all political office holders at all levels. The administration will need to pay close attention to managing regional and religious threats, and its disposition to the elite with capacities for mischief or improving popular support will be tested. Ambitious politicians with an eye on 2019 could divert attention and energy from creating synergy in policies and programmes at all levels of government.

    • Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)

    The PDP is unlikely to recover from its many and varied challenges any time soon. Its internal schisms and the large numbers of its present and former leaders who are being mentioned in scams of all types will deplete its capacity to re-invent itself. It is unlikely to benefit from disputes within APC, or provide an effective opposition outside the legislature. Nonetheless, its members in the National Assembly are a vital asset, and they could exploit intra-APC disputes to damage the administration’s plans and programmes.

    • President Jonathan

    The noose is increasingly tightening around President Jonathan’s neck, with more and more revelations about scams and outright thefts that took place under his watch. It is a matter of time before his personal role and others, such as Dr. Okonjo-Iweala, Alison-Maduekwe and other key ministers and officials are more closely scrutinised. President Buhari seems bent on extending the frontiers of enquiry into the management and abuse of public funds and other assets. It is unlikely that President Jonathan and former senior ministers will evade complicity in some of them. President Buhari may have to raise the profile of the fight against corruption and the inmates in EFCC holding cells by nodding towards the investigation and possible trial of the former President and key ministers.

    • The Buhari factor

    Nigerians will become better acquainted with the persona and character of President Buhari. So far he has come across as determined and focused. He has been the face and voice of his administration, and has shown a personal trait of intolerance against corruption and threats to national security. In 2016, Nigerians will see whether he plans to yield some space to his Vice President and some of his ministers with solid accomplishments, to complement his image of strong personal integrity and unbending will. His temperament and disposition will be tested by the capacity of corrupt people to fight back, to be frustrated by compromised or weak institutions, or by the imperative of making compromises where they become necessary. President Buhari will retain wide popular support as he fights corruption, but in 2016, he also has to lay the foundations of solid socio-economic achievements. These will be his asset as an elite steeped in a tradition of pillage and plunder fight him back.

  • Southern Kaduna

    Southern Kaduna

    Events in Southern Kaduna are once again the focus of national attention and concern. Home to roughly one-fourth of a state that captures and reflects the basic essence of northern Nigeria, many of the residents in this area spent the Christmas in partial lockdown following days of protests and clashes. The tipping point were the attacks on the governor, his deputy and members of the State Security Council who had decided to hold a meeting in the largest town in the area, Kafanchan, to find a way out of the killings and reprisals that had become almost endemic in and around many villages in many parts of the region in the last few years. These killings had created problems which had become more pronounced with the persistent mention of Fulani as attackers and the prominence of partisan politics as a factor in responses and mobilisation of passions. Villagers will now confront a new reality: hundreds of soldiers, policemen and an assortment of security personnel, who will be part of their lives for a few weeks or for much longer, depending on the state’s perception of the threat which villagers and herders pose to each other and to national security.

    Significantly, this very presence will give a large part of the population the comfort and assurance it seeks from a state that had appeared too distant and indifferent. While security agents attempt to keep citizens from taking on each other and anyone else identified as the enemy through sharply-defined prisms of faith, ethnicity and relationship with the state government, Kaduna State government will labour to convince the world that it is not punishing naked women and youths who defied a curfew to attack Governor el-Rufai and show utter contempt for laws of the land.

    The Federal Government will watch to see if it has to design a new security outfit for long-term stay, similar to the one next door in Plateau State. New frontiers in propaganda will be opened. Some communities will say they are being occupied, while the real culprits, the Fulani herders and their political backers roam free, planning new attacks. Some will urge the state to lean hard on citizens from communities and politicians who encourage them to believe they have earned the right to ignore the state completely while they go for their pounds of flesh or when they design their own protection. Churches and mosques and the social media will take up battles, making all faiths part of this fight between historical oppressors and victims. Regional politics will be prominent as a factor as APC’s opposition raises its voice to reinforce the fact that this region has been a solid PDP supporter since 1999. APC itself will not abandon one of its very own, particularly one who will flash deep involvement of PDP politicians in encouraging defiance and violence.

    Today’s conflicts in Southern Kaduna have deep historical and cultural roots, giving every group many good reasons to successfully plead the case for being a victim. From the 1970s, competition for political and territorial space, egged on by faith institutions and urban-based elite, began to create conflicts in parts of the region that would reverberate across the entire state or the country every time they occurred. Kasuwan Magani, Kafanchan, Zangon Kataf, the 1999 installation fights, the ‘Shari’a’ riots, ‘Miss World ‘riots, the ‘Cartoon ‘riots, 2011 post-election riots, the riots that followed the church bombing by Boko Haram in 2013 have been etched into history as horrific blood-letting occasions that made the state at a time the most dangerous place to live in because you could live or die in the hands of mobs only on the basis of your faith or location at the time. Except for the jailing of some prominent elite from the region by a Judicial Commission of Enquiry following the attempted ethnic cleansing that was Zangon Kataf, not one citizen anywhere has been punished by the state for killings and arson. Killers melted into communities, victims cried and sulked in a state that begged pained hearts to forgive, and life became cheaper with every bloodbath. Communities built arsenals for the next conflicts. Towns and cities became virtually segregated along religious and ethnic boundaries. Trust between communities broke down completely, and was worsened by partisan politics that reflected the hue of religious and partisan character. PDP’s brand of politics gave the Christian communities a prominence and a share of the spoils that belied their actual aggregate strength. They in turn stood by the party with unwavering loyalty, refusing to budge even when much of the northern Christian communities in other northern states switched sides and supported the APC.

    The gradual spread of killings of villagers by suspected Fulani herders that began from the southern part of the state introduced a relatively novel element in the geo-politics of the region, and confronted the state with a very complex problem. History and ecology have combined to create an elaborate tapestry of communities, cultures and economies that were impossible to isolate from each other. Changing patterns of land use and a politicised land ownership epidemic were pitching herders and farmers across most of the North in skirmishes. Long-term solutions required a stable political environment, enlightened policies and strong political will to craft. None have existed in the last decade or so. Communities and groups therefore designed their own protection and defined the enemy. As villagers died in greater numbers at the hand of killers that seemed impossible to arrest or stop, more and more villagers lost faith in the state to protect them. Respect for authority plummeted, demonstrated more graphically in the humiliation of the late Governor Yakowa in Zonkwa, the retreat of former Governor Yero from protesting elderly naked women in Sanga Local Government and the series of events culminating in the attacks on Governor el- Rufai.

    Governor el-Rufai’s personality and brand of politics have not prepared him well to deal with the daunting cumulative legacy in Southern Kaduna State. The voters from the region rejected him, preferring to stick with the sinking PDP. He has been unable to build political bridges with the region, choosing to operate with politicians without any weight in their communities. Prominent politicians and elders from the region who would have been inclined to work with and for him have been alienated by his tendency to believe that all past is a liability, and he can create his own world. He has accumulated massive hostility from a Christian community from many sources going as far back as a re-tweet some years ago which some say insulted their faith, to the plan to regulate religious preaching, to plans to demolish ‘Gbagi Villa’, a highbrow, largely Christian location in Kaduna he insists is illegally built and must be demolished. PDP politicians in the state have made massive political capital out of the governor’s travails with Christians and Southern Kaduna communities, in many instances specifically and openly urging disobedience to authority in the name of resistance.

    Yet, Governor el-Rufai needs support to pull the state from the brink of a long-drawn crisis that will suck in a lot more than the rest of the region, the state and the nation. He is already deeply engaged in the trenches with the Shia, a group with rich credentials in building strategic alliances with religions and sects that would further its cause. This is the time to advise that the mobilisation of law enforcement agents must be accompanied by serious thinking over exactly what it is to accomplish. At all cost, it must not stay in place of peace and security that does not require soldiers and police to enforce with boots on the ground. Communities need to be assured that they are safe, and this will involve the elimination of the threats from attacks as well as attacks from other communities. The governor should engage key clergy, community leaders, politicians and elders from the region and other parts of the state to help identify possible solutions in the long term, and to bring down tension in the short term. It will be a serious mistake for the governor to believe that events in Southern Kaduna State are about him. They pre-date him, and will in all probability outlive him. Today, it is his lot to deal with a very serious and complex manifestation of an old problem. If he is unable to mobilise a lot more than his officials and security agents and re-examine his do-it-all-alone philosophy to get over this challenge, it will be about him. And that will be an even bigger tragedy, because a major part of the problem sees him as the problem.

  • Looking inwards

    Looking inwards

    Darkness reigns at the foot of the lighthouse
    –Japanese proverb

    Reports that President Muhammadu Buhari has directed Attorney-General of the Federation (AGF) to investigate allegations of corruption against top government officials are likely to generate widely divergent reactions. There will be people who will celebrate signals that the President’s resolve to fight corruption is genuinely blind to partisan, political or personal interests. PDP bigwigs and retired military officers who have borne the brunt of the anti-corruption onslaught largely because their hands still show fresh signs of raiding the till will hope that the investigations will throw in new inmates from the accusing side. Federal legislators who have battled numerous attempts to rope their leaders and their conduct into anti-corruption dragnets will chalk-up this development as a victory of sorts, to the degree that the President is even willing to contemplate investigating corruption charges among officials close to him. Then there are those whose hard-earned cynicism over the administration’s willingness to tolerate questions around its integrity and competence will advise against raising expectations that any new grounds will be broken by this order. Nonetheless, the President’s order represents an encouraging step towards responding to public opinion regarding his commitment to the fight against corruption as a national, rather than a partisan problem.

    The directive that key officials suspected of corruption should be investigated could be the call to battle stations, the order signalling a readiness to engage the enemy, will be followed very closely by Nigerians and the international community. Until now, the focus of the fight against corruption has been the leading lights of the previous administration and the military, as well as the odd high profile APC politicians who appear to have committed political crimes that remind the administration that they have questions around corruption they should have answered a long time ago. Record offices of anti-corruption and investigating agencies are brimming with case files of many prominent APC politicians, yet new files are daily being opened for new suspects with different partisan tags. Between the courts and the anti-corruption agencies, the fate of many former governors now senators of APC and PDP as well as many others who were being investigated or prosecuted appears sealed in favour of their perpetual freedom from being conclusively processed. A few of the recent high profile defections from PDP to APC have been attributed in some quarters  to the search for political immunity against investigation and prosecution, a charge that should hurt the President very deeply. The President himself has said on numerous occasions that corruption is fighting back; giving a rather simplistic impression that he expected that the culture that breeds corruption and the act itself will simply roll over. The appearance of evidence that far from running away, corruption is finding a breeding ground in intimate circles around him may have finally pushed the President to salvage his administration’s key undertaking to Nigerians.

    The allegations that people close to President Buhari are engaged in corrupt practices have been around for a while. It will be uncharitable to assume that the President did not investigate these allegations. Given the pervasive tendency of Nigerians to suspect everyone in authority, no one should blame the President for not throwing them under the bus at the first whisper of corruption. If the President has decided to be loyal to the intimate circle around him, ignoring calls for replacing some of them to improve standards of transparency and competence, it is his right to do so. But he knows that he will be responsible for their actions and performance, and Nigerians will judge him over his choices of aides, confidants and other officials. So far, you could count the number of senior officials the President has fired for any reason on your fingers. This suggests either of two things: the President is happy with his choices to date, or he does not monitor performance and integrity levels. If your loyalty to the leadership capacities of the President is very high, you could also grant him the ability to establish facts around allegations that just won’t go away, and keep the outcome to himself. Judgment over his tendency to remain silent over persistent allegations against senior aides, officials and ministers will be divided. Some will say he does not have to tell Nigerians that every allegation that comes his way is investigated and found wanting. Others will say Nigerians are an intensely suspicious people who look up to him to improve transparency in governance, and he must constantly assure them that he and everyone around him are squeaky clean.

    Now it appears the President is outsourcing the responsibility to establish the integrity of key officials to other public officials with requisite statutory responsibilities. It will be comforting to believe that the impetus behind this decision is not primarily the fact that the federal legislature whose leadership the President has been at loggerheads with over corruption has raised serious issues around the integrity of two of his key officials. If the fiasco over the screening of the President’s nominee for chair of EFCC and the allegations of corruption against the Secretary to Government of the Federation (SGF) have triggered a wider and deeper search for evidence of corruption beyond these two persons, the nation will be better assured that the real battle against corruption, which is to uproot it from within the deep recesses of power, could be won.

    President Buhari has just raised the stakes in the war against corruption, and may just have triggered a scramble for many battle stations. The enemy may not be as far away as it is convenient to assume. His own side is a key player that could determine the outcome of this decisive battle. He only needs to interrogate the events and circumstances around the rejection of his nominee for chair of EFCC, a nomination that had been with the Senate for months, waiting to be torpedoed by a security report written against the nominee by a security agency that reports to the President. How tight are his ranks? Could the President have tolerated a nomination to a very sensitive position that had been mortally wounded? Did he believe he can win another battle against the National Assembly with his troops shooting at each other? Was Magu set up to be embarrassed and to embarrass the President and the anti-corruption war? Could Magu move from crack investigator and prosecutor to being an accused in one fell swoop? Could someone have handed the Senate a battle in this war on a platter? Are all eyes on the ball?

    Even more questions will be asked if the circle to be investigated by the office of the Attorney-General of the Federation (AGF) is widened by the President. The allegations against the SGF which he dismissed as balderdash, for instance, ought to have been available to more than just a Senate committee. Long before this committee laid its hands on these damaging allegations, the battery of control mechanisms in the Presidential Initiative in the Northeast and the many federal and security agencies in and around it ought to have raised the alarm that should reach the President directly. Certainly, many aid and humanitarian agencies have drawn attention to rampant corruption and abuse around victims’ support in the Northeast. Without a doubt, the SGF is entitled to defend himself against the Senate’s allegations, and the Senate itself ought to have afforded him the opportunity to defend himself before it. The Senate knows better than to demand that the SGF is sacked only on the basis of its findings against him. The devil now is in the questions around the integrity of the investigations to be conducted by the AGF which Nigerians will raise. How much credibility should be given to investigations by EFCC, ICPC, Police, AGF and DSS against powerful public officials in an administration with pronounced cleavages? Will the AGF also investigate officials who are infinitely more powerful than the SGF?

    Still, it is the prerogative of the President to devise who, how and why he wants his officials to be investigated. Nor should his decision be dismissed as cosmetic or public relations. President Buhari’s commitment to fight corruption is being questioned, and some of those questions deserve answers. The AGF should be encouraged to be loyal to President Buhari’s anti-corruption stand to do justice to the mandate to thoroughly investigate those referred to him. The entire credibility of the war against corruption may very well depend on the outcome of these investigations.

  • The inmates’ chatter

    The inmates’ chatter

    Do not follow a person you see running away
    – African proverb

    After weeks of attempts to ignore each other, they finally began to come to terms with the objective similarity of their conditions and circumstances. They were going nowhere. Not even a few feet away from each other. They could finally speak with each other, a significant progress from the silent struggle for space, fresh air, fights that no one separated, alliances that collapsed every few hours and the imperatives of sharing very little. The normal protocols in detention will be the existence of a leader supported by enforcers and a hierarchy designed by length of stay, muscle and the necessities of maintaining order. Not here. This is not the normal cell. Every inmate here represents the others’ source and target of hostility. The cell was the world that had locked them up, its occupants constant reminders that they all had long chains that are not severed by walls or circumstances.

    The ground rules had been set. They shared a righteous indignation and a sense of profound injustice. Their innocence was beyond question, a mark of honour worn with pride and fortitude. Martyrs all, they had agreed no cause is nobler than the other. They are champions of causes that clashed and struggled for validation and triumph in the world outside. Here, they will share their versions of the injustice of the Nigerian state, the inspiration behind their struggles and the cause of their current circumstances. No interruptions, no arguments, no challenges.

    Inmate One goes first. He is a fighter for the cause of Biafra, a nation his people were destined to have and build into a model African nation. He had inherited this cause from generations who had lived lives, fought and died on the margins of Nigeria, a nation which milked his people’s innate genius and enterprise. The simple demand to leave a nation that is inherently incapable of doing justice to his people, a  demand recognised by a world which acknowledges rights to self determination for certain cultural groups has been resisted by the rest of Nigeria and many Igbo who prefer servitude to others than joining the struggle for their own nation. His struggle will not end until the Nigerian state yields. By any means necessary.

    Inmate Two states his case. He is a fighter for a nation where his Islamic faith will not be answerable to other faiths or political systems that negate, abridge or pollute it. The Nigerian state as it exists represents an intolerable assault that cannot be ignored or tolerated by all good Muslims. His fight is a divine call to resist the imposition of systems that compromise the essence of being a Muslim. Victory is assured by Allah, whose demand to fight to free Muslims from non -Islamic influences and compromises is being ignored by many Muslims, and entirely by other Nigerian non-Muslims. These are enemies who should be fought without distinction. His war will be over when the Nigerian state becomes a model Muslim state, or yields grounds to carve out an Islamic State from it. By any means necessary.

    Inmate Three speaks. He is a freedom fighter for a people whose God-given wealth is being stolen by other Nigerians. His people are rewarded with a pittance, poverty and destruction of all other assets on land and in water. The world colludes with the Nigerian state to pump out his peoples’ wealth to areas where life is made comfortable. Most Nigerians have fed fat from his people’s wealth under dubious arrangements that allow strangers and foreigners unhindered access to incredible wealth that could give every youth and adult from his communities all the benefits of modern development. This is a fight for the life and soul of his people, a fight abandoned by many from the community and resisted by a Nigerian state which could collapse without his peoples’ stolen assets. It is a war that can and must be won. It will not stop until the Nigerian state is made to accept that his peoples’ wealth is not available for plunder by foreigners and other Nigerians. By any means necessary.

    Inmate Four states his case. He is a fighter in defence of his community which is being destroyed by people from other communities. His people have been farmers, simple folk living in peace with everyone who was willing to respect lands, boundaries, traditions and rights bequeathed by ancestors. Until recently, quarrels and conflicts with neighbours and strangers have been resolved through ancient mechanisms and processes, as well as the facilitation of organs of the Nigerian state. These are no longer effective, and his community has had to protect itself from assaults, attacks and imminent extinction with the same methods being employed by its enemies. It is no longer safe to wait until after you are attacked. Taking the fight to the enemy is the only effective means of keeping the community safe, or as safe as it can be in a situation where it has to raise its own security and buy weapons at great cost. His war will not end until women and children can sleep in their villages, and men can go out to farms and markets without being attacked. By any means necessary, his community will protect itself.

    Inmate Five says he is not a freedom fighter. He has no noble cause to champion. He fights to survive in a nation that has not prepared him for anything other than a life of crime. The violent crime for which he is being accused should be visited on the Nigerian state, a nation built precariously on two pillars of pervasive violence and subversion of all laws of the land. He is one of millions in that bulge around a nation that is actually its uneducated, unskilled demographic nightmare. Violent crime is only one variant among crimes in a nation of virtual criminals, the worst crime being caught. There are millions like him out there, grabbing and shooting their ways a day a time. One day he will be finally victimised by the state’s bullet or a lynch mob.

    Inmate Six was next. He too is a fighter in his people’s cause to resist the destruction of their livelihood and lifestyle. For centuries, they have lived a life on constant move, dictated by the needs of livestock and the imperatives of preserving a culture under constant threat from a rapidly-changing world. Conflicts and frictions with settled and farming communities have been a constant part of life, but these have been mitigated in the past by effective dispute resolution systems and governments that designed methods of reducing conflicts. In the last few years, however, shrinking secure grazing land, expanding urban settlements and indifferent or even hostile governments have combined to threaten the lives and assets of his people. Land is now the only asset recognised by governments with little sympathy for his people. His own asset is a nuisance and a threat, and the land he needs to sustain it and expand is being taken away. He is hemmed in by insensitivity and hostility. He cannot move forward without being an aggressor. He cannot stay because he owns no place to stay. He fights for space, a job he is ill-prepared for in a nation in search of demons. He makes new enemies by the day, losing many members of the community to crimes and lifestyles with less stress. What is left of his lifestyle and asset will be preserved. At all cost necessary.

    Inmate Seven sighed. He was not prepared to speak, but he had to honour a commitment. I am the Nigerian state, he says, including its justice system which you all accuse. I am in this cell with you because I am also accused of failing Nigerians. I am supposed to be your protection and guarantor of you rights. I am to mediate between your rights and those of other Nigerians. I have lost the legitimate monopoly to use violence as a means of enforcing law and order to crime and every grievance. I am accused of failing to stop widespread corruption which impoverishes citizens and pushes them into desperation. I am like a large prison, a much bigger version of this cell, in which every inmate is my victim. I cannot provide judicial or guarantee social justice. I am accused of victimising everyone. Yet only I can address injustice.

  • Friends and political relations

    Friends and political relations

    Wise men speak because they have something to say. Fools because they have to say something –Plato

    In the last few weeks, voices raised over the administration’s management of the economy have become louder and more distinct. Those that sounded like political grudges around the management of the party or the President’s apparent decision to ignore calls for substantial overhaul of his key advisers and appointed public officials were no less shrill, but they have been largely treated as traditional irritants by the people whose jobs it is to slap back on behalf of the President. Many of the politically-aggrieved have chosen the path of designing a future without damaging exposure, but have left enough room for notice and speculation, which is vital to political health. Spokespersons have been busy countering most of the pointed criticisms, but the way things look, they will now be a lot busier, or become more discerning in choosing how, when, where and what to respond to. The presidency is at that stage when every criticism hurts, and those who say they are giving you advice as friends are instinctively doubted. When the only real friend is one who suffers your limitations in silence, your circle of friends shrink by the day as more and more walk away and tell the world that the nation has a problem in you. There were a few friends of President Muhammadu Buhari who agonised over his wife’s publicly-expressed opinion over his choice of company. A few weeks ago, they would have been in the ranks of those who worried how much of that much-publicised outing and the responses were products of insufficient attention to opinions of the most intimate and closest circles around the President. A few have  now taken up more or less the same method of publicly calling attention to serious limitations in the presidency’s capacities to respond to popular perceptions regarding its hold over the nation’s affairs. You could be tempted to remove Buba Galadima from this intimate circle now, given the fading quality of his grievances, but the robust riposte by the President’s men suggested that even the comments of a man they say was discarded for deep moral limitations and who today may not win an election with his family as voters had hurt the President by hinting at a character flaw in the inability to sustain and reward loyalty, and for his doomsday scenario that everyone will abandon the President by 2019.

    Then former President Obasanjo rumbled in with gloved hands to remind President  Buhari  that he was running low on fuel. For a man known for his poison pen and irredeemable quality of staying right in the face of all power, a few friends of the President will be happy Obasanjo is not writing a letter. He had delivered a lecture at which he upbraided policies around the management of the economy, questioned the wisdom of borrowing $30b, and  protested being lumped in President Buhari’s refrain that the last 16 years of the nation’s experience under the PDP have been an unmitigated disaster, which his administration is having to reverse. Obasanjo’s warning that the march was slow and confused because the President leading it insists on looking back while attempting to move forward was a way of hinting that he can remove gloves. Perhaps to soften blows, Obasanjo threw in a few commendations in the direction of President Buhari, and then his trademark lampooning of the federal legislature as evidence of our penchant for tolerating organised plunder of the commonwealth. Perhaps the rambling, no-holds-barred response of the legislators had encouraged the President’s men to hold fire and restrain instincts to hit back. It may not be entirely out of place as well to assume that higher wisdom had cautioned against hinting at a serious falling-out between Buhari and a man who had started with warm embrace and finished in serious scuffles with all other presidents since 1979.

    The statement released following the Ondo governorship elections which saw the President and Asiwaju Bola Tinubu lining up behind different aspirants and the triumph of the President’s man appeared designed to limit serious depletion in the ranks of the President’s friendly circle. It was emphatic on non-existence of any rancour between the two strategic allies, as well as the tremendous esteem with which Buhari holds Asiwaju. This attempt at damage control is yet to show dividends, but it does suggest that the President is sensitive to  the dangers of having too many ex-friends and allies. It may have been, at least in part, an effort to  stem the rumoured plans of many pillars of the structure put together to capture power two years ago, to move away and reconstruct political platforms in new territories with different blocks. There will also be some hope that those vigorously working at replacing the inner circle of influence and confidence will take the statement seriously and back away some steps, at least for now. The next few months will be interesting because they will have to reveal how the battles for 2019 will be fought, with and against whom.

    The President will have to hope that those who manage his image and strategy are on the same page with whatever his plans are for managing the political contexts of his economic policies and his political plans in the longer term. Right now, there appears to be a fixation with knee jerk reactions to criticisms and comments that suggest that the post-Ondo elections statement was a glitch. By any standards, the recent critique of the administration’s fiscal and monetary policies by the former Governor of the Central Bank and now Emir of Kano, Muhammadu Sanusi II, is significant in a number of areas. First, it is informed and frank, in the tradition of a man who had dared more hostile adversaries and has the scars to show for it. Second, it says a lot about relations between the Emir and the President, two people who have more than a shared history of being on the receiving end of power and of the struggles to end the Jonathan administration, that such comprehensive indictment of some practices and policies of an administration managing an economy in deep recession has to be made in public. The Emir is not an ordinary citizen with knowledge, experience and courage who has no access to power. He occupies a very sensitive position with a tradition of being seen, not heard. He obviously feels it is more important to say what is wrong publicly than tolerate it behind a turban, a tradition he breached under Jonathan, and now does under Buhari. Three, Emir Sanusi would expect that he will be taken up by the President’s men, and this is likely to caution that what he said about the economy and its management would have benefitted from his ability and willingness to defend them. A long and bruising engagement with the Emir will do a lot of damage to an administration already neck-deep in criticisms over its performance, even if many are undeserved.

    Initial responses to the Emir’s critique suggest that it will be treated in the same manner other criticisms are: with a tweet or a paragraph or two more suited to the social media, condemning them as uninformed and mischievous. This will be deeply damaging and counter-productive. A studied response by those with the capacities to understand the critique and the disposition to address, not the Emir, but the nation over them is what is needed at this stage. The same approach should be adopted in responding to the multiple sources of complaints and alarm being raised over the scale and projections of malnutrition and starvation among displaced populations in the Northeast. The global community and local groups have rendered invaluable humanitarian service to all victims of the Boko Haram insurgency, working with all Nigerian governments and sometimes going where these do not go. There will certainly be a few among the more than 50 organisations in the Northeast who are in it for their pockets, but the vast majority of them represent genuine and valuable sources of relief and assistance to a desperate population. They see and speak in private about incompetence and corruption in a region facing one of the worst humanitarian disasters in the world today. They plan to stay, but they also need to be taken more seriously when they raise issues because major stresses between them and Nigerian authorities will seriously hamper more spending that will be contingent on greater levels of efficiency and transparency.