Category: Hardball

  • Shall we have to knock on wood?

    In many countries and cultures across the world, to knock on wood is a two-edged sword of sort. Knocking on wood is perhaps one of the most universal superstitious acts ever to be practised by man. It, therefore, presents shades of meanings and connotations for different peoples. According to Wiktionary: “The expression is used superstitiously to avert the possibility that something just mentioned (If bad) might not occur, or (if it is a good thing) might occur.”

    In old English folklore, a version of knocking on wood holds that a sect of monks who wore large wooden crosses around their necks would tap or “knock” on them to ward off evil.

    This tradition of knocking on wood is not known in Nigeria but it seems that we might have to imbibe it to effect some of the changes we desire.

    The long-running story of Nigeria’s refineries and massive importation of petroleum products has reached a stage we may have to knock on wood for the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) to get stirred. Two stories early last week could have pushed Hardball to bang his head against wood.

    One states that, “NNPC loses N228 billion revenue as refineries remain dormant.” Yet another, on the same day says, “FG spent N2.95 trillion on petrol imports in 2018 – NBS”. Indeed a mind-boggling paradox which calls for us all; 200 million of us, to knock on wood.

    Consider that Nigeria, a major oil producer in the world has no viable refining capacity. Most of 2018, the three refineries in Kaduna, Warri and Port-Harcourt averaged between zero and 10 percent capacity utilization. In fact a national newspaper reported that the three refineries recorded a cumulative loss of N114.3 billion in the first 11 months of 2018.

    But this sum is peanuts when we compute the cost of importing refined products consumed in Nigeria. As the above-quoted headline shows, nearly N3 trillion was spent on petrol imports last year. That is more than one-third of our national budget. And we are talking about petrol alone.

    We import more than half a dozen other petroleum products ranging from kerosene, diesel, to high-density polyethylene and engine oils. We also import heavily, food products like rice, wheat, cooking oil, tomato puree, poultry products, etc. The point being made here is that Nigeria probably spends half of her annual budget on importation of finished products.

    Finally, here is the clincher (the reason we all must decide to knock on wood or to create a national knocking on wood day) everything we import, we can produce in large, exportable quantity at home.

    Who’s knocking on wood yet?

  • Whither CAN?

    The Monday before the February 23 election, an apocryphal report went viral on Facebook, claiming a very high CAN hierarch in Ibadan, Oyo State, was the previous day, blessing or cursing his congregation, along partisan lines.

    He allegedly bullied, from the pulpit, his congregation to vote a certain way or be doomed to some spiritual comeuppance.  Given that the post came from an opposing partisan camp, and no independent sources confirmed the incident, no one could completely vouch for its veracity.

    Still, as an apocryphal tale, it rings with some credulity, for that paints the unfortunate conduct of many pastors, in many churches, in the run-up to the elections; which by the way, with the governorship and state legislative polls due on March 9, are still in season.  Therefore, you couldn’t even dismiss such conduct in churches, on the Sunday worship day, after the presidential election.

    Yet, it is to CAN’s credit that it was among the first set of corporates to congratulate President Muhammadu Buhari on his re-election.  That, at least, was some relief for not a few, especially those who insist the foremost Nigerian body of Christians has derailed from its pristine call of tending the spiritual flock, to the secular wide-and-merry.

    Hardball’s angst with CAN is its clear moral ambivalence in an epoch of Nigerian rot; when faith organizations should have rippled and bristled, and froth with holy anger, to arrest Nigeria’s moral free fall.

    Yet, under two presidents, CAN has shown culpable ambivalence, if not outright abandonment of duty, as far as arresting moral rot is concerned.

    Under President Goodluck Jonathan, CAN under the presidency of Pastor Ayo Oritsejafor, was perceived as willing and indeed merry collaborator, with whatever was going on.  Why, Oritsejaor’s private jet, which he nevertheless claimed to have firmed out on a lease, was involved in a messy arm purchase scandal in South Africa.

    With a desperate Jonathan playing the arch-victim as the persecuted “Christian” president, playing the North against the South, Christians against Muslims, majority against minority and allied sundry blackmail to win re-election, CAN somewhat suckered itself into that gambit.

    Enter then, hate-preaching pastors, belching partisan curses!  But after that abortive campaign, Oritsejafor vacated the CAN presidency, and retired quietly to manage his church.

    But the CAN he left behind, and Baptist Reverend Samson Ayorinde that succeeded him, appear not yet weaned from controversial campaigns.  All through the first term of President Muhammadu Buhari, CAN has more or less positioned itself as the religious arm of the political opposition.

    CAN, as other pressure groups, reserve the right to support or oppose, subject to the interest of its members.  That stands within its legitimate and democratic rights.

    Still, uncritically carrying partisan sympathies to negate own pristine essence has been CAN’s greatest undoing.

    The anti-sleaze war has formed one of the fundamental pillars of the PMB presidency. But even as CAN’s faith essence should have pulled it towards constructive partnership to rid Nigeria of filth and sleaze, tardy is the word from CAN’s camp.

    That isn’t good enough for a body that should worry about the moral health of the country.  It is time, therefore, for CAN to change tack.  Its perception, as a-moral, does its image no good.

     

  • In Bauchi, it’s Buhari mystique vs Buhari’s men

    Some political fortunes have hangovers. While the bad ones depress, the good ones can both oppress and elevate. When it is victory like what Muhammadu Buhari handed some states in the last presidential elections, some politicians tend to forage for advantage.

    In some states of the federation, some persons have started to work the victory to advantage. But what we all know is the dictum of a former speaker of the United States House of Representatives, Tip O’neil. He proclaimed that all politics is local. Indeed. There is therefore a limit to the Buhari momentum, but it can be converted to local moorings.

    So, PMB’s bandwagon is roaring for some who seek governorship seats this weekend. In others, though, it will chug and stumble to an abject stop. Bauchi State, however, provides a peculiar scenario. In the presidential polls,Buhari pulled a commanding lead over his nearest rivalAtikuAbukabar. And if the victory lacked the one million differentials that crippled Goodluck Jonathan’s re-election bid, he left no doubt who owned the narrative in the north-eastern state. He remains the first name, for now, in the politics of the north, including in the states. Bauchi State is no different.

    In the sweepstakes, a few factors have come into reckoning in the fight for Bauchi State governor now occupied by AbdullahiAbubakar. It is a battle of the Buharis. The first Buhari can be described as the Buhari mystique. This refers to the force of charisma that draws a sense of awe among the mass of the people. This phenomenon favours the APC and the governor. So, anyone who wants to fight against the incumbent must be seen not only to be at war against the governor and the APC but also also the personage that embodies the party.

    The first person to pull the trigger was speaker YakubuDogara. It ignited a cold war, in which the Governor Abubakar held the turf at home, and Dogara had to unleash long-range missiles from his comfy outpost in Abuja. Evidently, the missiles missed and Dogara lost the battle not only to fight the Buhari mystique in Abuja but also in Bauchi. He moved to the PDP to continue his fight. While he was in APC, he was in bed of spikes with other personages known as the Abuja crowd, and that included the education minister and the comptroller General of Customs, who would not stand the “guts” of the sitting governor. They even fantasised about what they saw as the “Ambode treatment” for the governor.

    But Abubakar’s foes are like soldiers who cannot shoot a loaded gun. They want the governor out but the man is also wrapped in the Buhari mystique, especially since his programmes have conformed interms of treatment of the poverty related policies in education and  social welfare. It seems so far the Buhari mystique is having a and over Buhari’s men in Abuja, including Dogara.

  • Lagos. The Moment. The Man.

    God in the moment makes things happen beyond ourselves. Progress is a road that forever extends itself the more we travel it. It never ends but continues to urge us forward.Genuine progress weds the finer aspects of our past to the possibilities of our greater future. As we approach the Governorship election, I believe Lagos is ready to keep faith with its strong tradition of progress. This is a tradition of excellence that has served us well during the past 20 years. Our state has been on a journey of improvement of our infrastructure, our public transportation and roads, physical security and law enforcement, the judiciary and administration of justice, health care, and our educational system. The state has become a welcoming home to business innovation and investment.  Lagos drives the national economy more than any other states. It sets the standard by which all others are measured.

    As excellent a city as Lagos is and as profound as its journey has been thus far, Lagos is ready to become its greater self.

    For us to reach these heights demands the best possible leadership.  During the past 20 years, the state has benefited from such leadership. This leadership has guided us on our collective journey to progress and toward a greater Lagos. Under the progressive leadership of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a team of able and innovative minds joined together to articulate and then to begin implementing a blueprint for the revival, modernization and improvement of this state, its governing institutions and its economy.  The improvements we see today are the seeds planted and germinated by that team.

    After Tinubu, Tunde Fashola followed and held close to the strategic plan.  Lagos continued to flourish under him. Governor Ambode came on board and tried to the extent he could understand the collective and overarching vision.

    The people who served Lagos during the Tinubu/Fashola period have distinguished themselves in sustained service to the state and nation.

    One such exemplary person is Babajide Sanwolu, a leader but also a team player with the rare talent of making things greater than how he met them.  He is my friend and brother. During the many years we have known each other, he has always amazed with his wealth of knowledge and deep understanding of the working of government. He is a man equipped with strategic vision as well as an eye for detail and a able hand to implement even the most complex task. During this time, I come to know Jide as someone who does excellently whatever he commits his mind to. And he has always committed himself to the wellbeing of the people of Lagos. He was always ready for a task or assignment.  Also ready to pitch in or to give advice. Always ready to team up to get things done. Always on the look out for others. He is someone who quickly comes to the aid of a needy friend or extends a helping hand to a stranger in distress. That is the Babajide Sanwo-Olu I know.

    His grasp of issues was uncommon. His networking ability unprecedented.

    Exactly 3 years ago, I made a remark that first startled him but now has proved to be prescient. Jide as I love to call him had developed the habit of checking up on me at work. Working with Asiwaju Tinubu one had no need for a clock because work never ends.  You just keep at it. Weekday, weekend, holidays — they are all the same. They are workdays.  He was always there to encourage and support me.  We discussed many issues. Our hopes.

     

  • Melaye’s theatricality

    Interestingly, a few days after he was re-elected to the Senate, Senator Dino Melaye tweeted: “Kogi State Government is planning to attack me on March 8 or 9. You will fail as always. God is my defence at all times. Nigerians take note.”

    Melaye of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), representing Kogi West, had defeated Smart Adeyemi of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the February 23 election. Melaye polled 85, 395 votes and won six of the seven local government areas in Kogi West Senatorial District. Adeyemi, a former senator, had the support of Governor Yahaya Bello but polled 66, 902 votes.

    Melaye’s allegation suggests that the Bello administration wants to harm him because he beat Adeyemi in the election.  The Director-General, Media, Publicity and Strategy to the Governor, Kingsley Fanwo, said: “The allegation is false and unfounded. He should follow up the allegations with proofs if he wants to be taken seriously.”

    It is noteworthy that this isn’t the first time Melaye has alleged that the Bello administration wants to harm him.  For instance, Police spokesman Jimoh Moshood had said in a statement on April 24, 2018: “At about 1200Hrs of today Sen. Dino Melaye while in lawful custody of the Nigeria Police Force and being taken for arraignment in Federal High Court, Lokoja from Abuja, escaped from lawful custody when hoodlums and miscreants in two Toyota Hilux vehicles blocked the police vehicle conveying Senator Dino Melaye around Area 1 Roundabout, Abuja.”

    He added: “In the process, the senator jumped out of the police vehicle through the window and was rescued from the policemen by hoodlums and miscreants to an unknown destination. The Police team reinforced and trailed Senator Dino Melaye to Zankli Hospital, Abuja where he was re-arrested.”

    Melaye’s Special Adviser Gideon Ayodele had supplied another version of what happened: “Contrary to online reports about jumping out of a moving police vehicle; nothing could be further from the truth as such insinuation is practically impossible for a man sandwiched between gun-wielding policemen. Today’s incident was a last resort by Senator Dino Melaye in order to foil attempt to kidnap him and kill him by agents of Kogi State governor in connivance with the police.”

    Now Melaye says the Kogi State government is planning to attack him on March 8 or 9. Melaye already has a reputation for theatricality and seems to be enjoying it.

  • The COCIN and Plateau polls

    Even to Christians in certain parts of the country, the Church of Christ in Nations (COCIN) may not sound familiar. But in Plateau State, the religious denomination is a power broker not only in the kingdom of heaven but also on earth. Plateau’s earth, that is.

    It plays a role not just in determining the tone of worship in Nigeria’s highland of cool air, breath-taking verdure and exotic fruits, but who mounts the chair of governor or even senator. It is not the only church of influence in the state, of course. Next in power is the Catholic Church whose genteel and quietly poetic mode of worship contrast with the more boisterous styles of other godly rivals, including the Pentecostal variety and, of course, the Evangelical Church Winning All (ECWA), a mainstay among many northern Christians. This breed of Christians accounts for some of the numbers that restrain the trend towards hegemony by the Muslim population. They also bolster the tension of worshippers between the cross and crescent in places like Kaduna, Adamawa, Benue and even Nasarawa States.

    In Plateau State, though, the COCIN worshippers regard themselves as the top players because they account for about 30 percent of the population. But COCIN alone, being Christian and wary of the appellation of dominance, have often encouraged the contenders for the top post of governor toaccommodate other faiths in the ticket.

    This is principally a pact, however unwritten, between the Catholic and the COCIN, so that every major player is accommodated. This is their version of pious fairness, or parity. But it leaves other followers of heaven in the lurch if they do not do fealty to the heavenly fathers of COCIN and Catholic.

    We can see that even Thomas Hobbes plays a role in the affairs of God on earth. Only the powerful in God’s kingdom will be accommodated in the kingdom on earth. So the Winner’s Chapel, the Redeemed Christian Church of God, the God’s Kingdom Society, et al, will have to sit back while the COCIN and Catholic pair as governor and deputy, and all goes well for all in the state.

    So, Governor Dariye, a COCIN was faithful so he picked  Botmang, a Catholic, as deputy governor. Jang followed the script, and as a COCIN, he also had Tallen, a Catholic, as deputy.  The incumbent Governor, Simon Lalong is Catholic, so his deputy Tyoden is COCIN.

    It seems even in the house of God, some may not be faithful. Or what Apostle Paul called truce breakers. Is Jerry Useni, a COCIN, has picked another COCIN, Ben Shignuhul, as his running mate. Is this a case of arrogance or a break with understanding? COCIN on its own cannot deliver a candidate, and it is not the way of Christians to break agreements.

  • Irregularities

    Unsurprisingly, the Returning Officer for the Imo West Senatorial District election on February 23, Prof Innocent Ibeawuchi, attracted attention when he alleged that he was forced to declare Governor Rochas Okorocha the winner of the poll.

    According to the result, Okorocha of the All Progressives Congress (APC) got 97,762 votes. He beat Jones Onyereri of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) (68,117) and Osita Izunaso of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) (30,084).

    Ibeawuchi told reporters he was held hostage from 7pm on February 24 till 11am the following day.  He was quoted as saying:  “I was compelled to announce the result which was inconclusive. I am a man of integrity and it is not true that the governor slapped me but I was held hostage by agents working for him. I was manhandled and I thank God I came back alive.”

    A report said Ibeawuchi had stopped after announcing results for nine of the 12 local government areas (LGAs) in the district, saying he had been directed to “return to Owerri, the state capital.” Okorocha’s supporters had stopped him from leaving the collation centre in Orlu, insisting that he must complete the announcement of the results.  Before this disruption, the results showed that Okorocha had won eight of the nine local government areas.

    Ibeawuchi eventually announced the three remaining results the next morning.  Okorocha won two of the last three LGAs, meaning he won 10 of the total 12 LGAs.

    According to a report, “The results came shortly after Mr Okorocha stormed the collation centre with a contingent of police officials. He tried to persuade Mr Ibeawuchi to complete the results. The professor initially refused to budge.” Does this explain why the professor claimed he had declared Okorocha winner “under duress”?

    Okorocha dismissed Ibeawuchi’s claim in a statement by his Chief Press Secretary, Sam Onwuemeodo, which described the returning officer as “a bloody liar who may be acting a script.” The governor added: “They should examine the returning officer to know his mental state. If he doesn’t have a mental illness, then he must be a criminal to ever think of that.”

    The whole story shows that the particular senatorial election was corrupted by irregularities. Indeed, a report said “journalists and observers were initially chased out of the centre,” and security officials fired teargas “in the midst of the controversy at the collation centre.”  The picture is clearly one of the negatives of the February 23 elections.

  • Candidate after election

    The presidential election has been lost and won.  President Muhammadu Buhari has been re-elected for a second term. But these realities seem to mean nothing to former Information Minister Jerry Gana who still wants the Supreme Court to declare him the lawful presidential candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the concluded election. Gana appeared in court on February 26 “dressed in blue agbada” and “accompanied by a handful of supporters.”

    A December 14, 2018 judgment of the High Court of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) had declared Gana the party’s presidential candidate. But a January 24 unanimous judgment by a three-man panel of the Court of Appeal had set aside the earlier ruling and named a former Cross River State Governor Donald Duke the SDP’s validly nominated presidential candidate. Duke was among the 73 candidates who contested the presidency on February 23. He got 34, 746 votes.

    Interestingly, Gana is undeterred. His case is akin to that of a runner who continues to run energetically when the race is over. He insists that he should be the SDP’s presidential candidate based on the zoning formula in the party’s constitution.

    Gana had come second in his party’s primary to choose its presidential candidate. But his argument is that despite coming second, he was qualified to be the party’s presidential candidate because, according to the party’s zoning arrangement, its chairman and presidential candidate could not come from the same part of the country.

    Why is Gana pursuing this matter even when it has been overtaken by events? The point is that he can’t participate in the election, even if the Supreme Court rules in his favour, because the election is over. It may be a matter of principle. It may be a matter of ego. It may be both.

    Duke’s performance in the presidential election was most likely affected by his candidacy battle with Gana. The SDP’s governorship candidate in Cross River State, where Duke comes from, Mr. Eyo Ekpo, observed: “For about half the allotted time for campaigns, Duke was not even a candidate, it wasn’t until about January 20 or so that the Court of Appeal said he could go back; by then the election was few days to go…So I think he really did not have the opportunity to campaign.”

    This is an instance of how a political party can work against its own interests by not putting its house in order.

  • Secondus agonistes

    Samson Agonistes (Agony of Samson) you probably know.  It is one of the classics off the desk of John Milton, the blind English poet whose poetic instincts saw clearer than many full-sighted persons.

    But Secondus agonistes?  You need no classical reference, for it is here, happening live!

    Uche Secondus, the national chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), is in severe agony and excruciating pains — no thanks to the emerging results, from the February 23 presidential and National Assembly elections.

    He probably deserves empathy and compassion.  In a zero-sum game politics played here, the pain of defeat could be extremely agonizing.  Still, that hardly excuses the wild throwing of tantrums, especially by the chair of a former national ruling party, now Nigeria’s biggest opposition.

    Addressing a press conference in Abuja, Secondus declared the results, from states released so far, were “incorrect” and “unacceptable” to the PDP – a legit choice.  Any party is perfectly entitled to accept or reject.

    What is absolutely “unacceptable” – ah, that word again! – is tweaking a putative loss to mean a collapse of the democratic system.  That would be electoral sour grape bitten too hard!

    Still, should you disagree with election results – and honestly, such disagreements are part and parcel of democracy – where to go is post-election adjudication, not threatening fire and brimstone, and conjuring Armageddon, just because you feared you might have lost.

    Indeed, as at the time the PDP national chairman spoke, less than eleven, out of 36 states’ results, had been formally released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).  So, with so much left to come out, why is the PDP chair raising the red flag?

    This seeming panic is even all the more confusing, contrasted to his rather optimistic claim that PDP would carry the day: “Despite these provocations, intimidations and attempts to hijack our democracy and change the course of history” he insisted after letting fly a barrage of allegations, “I must, in fact, convey to our good people the fact that the PDP is on course to victory and the presidency …”

    If this happens – and why not? — what happens to the chairman’s earlier gloomy painting of a collapsing democracy? It would, open sesame, spring back into life, because the PDP chair’s whim had changed? How pretty!

    Besides, Secondus’s posturing to the “international community” was rather amusing.  These observers’ preliminary assessments seemed to have no serious questions over the polls, though the Commonwealth Mission said it had not factored in the collation end of its observation, to the preliminary report.    So, what was Secondus up to?  Some campaign-after-election to enlist illicit support?  That’s cheap!

    The PDP has the right to kick over whatever injustices it might have noted in the polls’ conduct.  But where to ventilate those is certainly not at a press conference, trying to muddy the waters.  It is rather at the election tribunal, after the declaration of the final result.

    Any other way is just playing the sore loser – and it isn’t pretty!

     

  • Adeyeye: a 20-year trip

    For Dayo Adeyeye, the new senator-elect for Ekiti South, it is mission-accomplished after 20 years – the first electoral victory, after no less than three futile bids for governor; an earlier failed bid for Senate and a scurry outside the progressive lines for salvation, which eventually turned a mirage.

    In 1999, when progressives were progressives and Afenifere was Afenifere, Adeyeye was among the first set to emerge, as Alliance for Democracy (AD) senatorial candidate for Ekiti South, in the whole of the South West.

    It was a giddy time back then.  Adeyeye was a veteran of the anti-Abacha no-peace-no-war, war of attrition; that condemned the withdrawing military to a shameful stalemate, over the June 12 question.  That eventually triggered the rushed exit of the military from politics.

    Besides, Adeyeye came in with impressive credentials.  He was among the vibrant brain boxes behind the Olu Falae run, though abortive, for the presidency in 1999.  He was also a shining star, as publicity secretary – a visible symbol of the highly charged intellectual battery that serviced the then mighty Afenifere.

    So, no doubt about it: it was a done deal.  Adeyeye would cruise to victory.  But that didn’t happen.  Adeyeye lost – and painfully, the only AD South West senatorial candidate to falter, out of 18!

    Still, more odysseys would come Adeyeye’s way in 2007.  After an Action Congress (now fused into All Progressives Congress, APC) gubernatorial nomination tiff, Adeyeye stormed into the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), to protest an alleged skew towards co-aspirant, Kayode Fayemi.  Fayemi would later become AC candidate and delayed governor, after a prolonged post-election adjudication.

    In APC, Adeyeye would face more hurdles: a truncated bid for minister, after everything appeared signed and sealed, and later a latter-day minister of state, under President Goodluck Jonathan, for striking a deal with Ayo Fayose, in his 2014 disputed gubernatorial candidacy, among Ekiti PDP co-aspirants.

    Ironically, it was on account of Fayose that Adeyeye stomped back to APC, when he lost the Ekiti PDP gubernatorial ticket to Kolapo Olusola Eleka, the outgoing governor’s deputy, apparently in breach of a previous agreement.

    With Adeyeye’s announced defection into APC, his Ise-Orun votes played a decisive factor in ensuring Fayemi’s second coming – the same Fayemi, the subject of Adeyeye’s odyssey into PDP!

    Adeyeye’s victory, after a 20 year rumble in the jungle, is sweet.  It is even sweeter that he attained it in his natural habitat: among his fellow progressives and on the turf he naturally belongs.

    But the big lesson for the South West progressives mainstream: get more disciplined and deepen intra-party justice and fair play.  That way, you would stop fissuring and dissipating.

    Congrats, Senator-elect Dayo Adeyeye.  It is 20 years worth the wait!