The Nation Newspaper

Category: Editorial

  • ‘Home girl’ abroad

    ‘Home girl’ abroad

    • Badenoch has done well for herself but she could be more sensitive to her roots

    Kemi Badenoch secured a resounding victory in the Conservative Party leadership contest that lately held, becoming the first black woman to lead a major political party in the United Kingdom. The 44-year-old with Nigerian roots defeated fellow right-wing candidate, Robert Jenrick, by a big margin of votes to emerge U.K.’s foremost opposition leader – a position locating her an election away from the possibility of netting the prime ministership.

    The outspoken politician ran her campaign for Tory leadership on the message that the British state is broken and she’s the one to fix it with smaller government and radical new ideas. She argued that what happened with former Conservative Prime Minister Liz Truss, whose 49-day tenure ranked among the shortest in U.K. leadership and her successor Rishi Sunak, who led Tories to their worst defeat in modern history at the national election held last July, was that they tried hard to work, but within a broken system.

    “Something is broken, it doesn’t matter how hard you work, it still won’t deliver,” she said in a press interview. It was the Tory rout at the July poll that forced Sunak’s resignation from party leadership and necessitated the contest that Badenoch just won.

    Like many Conservatives, Badenoch idolizes the late Margaret Thatcher, the party’s first female leader who in the 1980s transformed Britain with her free-market policies. Citing her engineering background as qualification for mending the system, she touts herself as a disruptor, argues for low-tax, free-market economy and promises to “rewire, reboot and reprogram” the British state. She objects to multiculturalism, “identity politics,” gender-neutral bathrooms and plans to reduce U.K. carbon emissions, among other issues.

    The new Tory leader is no newcomer to races to head the party. She held a series of government posts in the 2019-2022 government of Prime Minister Boris Johnson before joining a mass exodus of ministers in July 2022 over ethics scandals that forced the premier’s resignation. Badenoch ran unsuccessfully to succeed Johnson, but her profile was boosted in the process. She was appointed Trade Secretary in Truss’s short-lived administration and served as Business Secretary under Rishi Sunak.

    The culling of Tories from the House of Commons at the July poll saw the Labour Party win a huge majority and Conservatives reduced to 121 lawmakers in the 650-seat parliament, but Badenoch held onto her seat as MP for North West Essex. Her political career, which began with being elected to the London Assembly in 2015, has seen her retain her membership of the Commons since 2017.

    Although Badenoch was born Olukemi Adegoke in London in 1980 to well-to-do Nigerian parents (a doctor and an academic), she had her childhood and early education in Nigeria. It wasn’t until age 16 she returned to the U.K., working part-time at McDonalds while pursuing her schooling. She studied computer systems engineering at the University of Sussex, later obtained a law degree and worked in financial services. In 2012, she married a banker, Hamish Badenoch, with whom she has three children. Ordinarily, she should be regarded as our ‘home girl.’

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    But the British politician is suspected of being a product of distorted identity, and putting her ambition over her identity by often talking down on her roots. “I grew up somewhere where the lights didn’t come on, where we ran out of fuel frequently despite being an oil-producing country,” she recently told the BBC, adding: “I don’t take what we have in this country (the U.K.) for granted. I meet a lot of people who assume that things are good here because they are, and always will be. They don’t realise just how much work and sacrifice was required in order to get that.”

    Badenoch is also known to have strongly argued against payment of reparations by Britain for slave trade and colonial exploitation of Caribbean and African nations, including Nigeria. Speaking earlier this year, months after ex-Prime Minister Sunak refused to apologise for the U.K.’s role in the slave trade or to commit to paying reparation, she said: “It worries me when I hear people talk about wealth and success in the U.K. as being down to colonialism or imperialism or white privilege or whatever.”

    Rather, she argued, the struggles of the late 1600s should be credited for providing the kind of economic certainty that paved the way for the Industrial Revolution. Any other interpretation could derail efforts to increase growth at home and abroad, Badenoch said, adding: “It matters, because if people genuinely believe that the U.K. only grew and developed into an advanced economy because of exploitation and oppression, then the solutions they will devise will make our growth and productivity problem even worse. It matters in other countries too, because if developing nations do not understand how the West became rich, they cannot follow in its footsteps.”

    We congratulate Ms. Badenoch for her historic stride and recommend her as an example of heights that can be attained by women in politics if they’re focused and determined. But we also admonish her to be wary of being on the wrong side of history by carrying on with the air of Malcom X’s portrait of a ‘house Negro.’ She needs to be more sensitive towards her roots.

  • New tax reform law

    New tax reform law

    Governors and others who have objections against any of the
    tax bills should approach the National Assembly

    Shortly after President Bola Tinubu was sworn in last year, he set up the Taiwo Oyedele Committee comprising 80 members drawn from all walks of life to look into means of collection and administration of taxes in the country. The six geo-political zones, professional bodies, tax agencies, corporate bodies, among others, were duly represented, including an economics student from the University of Ibadan, Ibadan.

    For about one year, the committee sat, poured through documents, debated, examined all proposals and then made representation to the president who presented their recommendations to the Federal Executive Council. Ratified by the council, the bills generated were then sent to the federal legislature for commencement of the legislative process. By provision of the 1999 constitution, no single arm of government could pass a bill into law. While the executive could generate a bill, it has to receive the endorsement of the federal lawmakers who reserve the right to tinker with it as they may deem fit, and then forward it to the Chief Executive for his assent. Where the assent is withheld, it goes back to the National Assembly that has the right to overturn the veto with two-thirds majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.

    Given the painstaking mode of operation of the Oyedele committee and the widespread consultation with relevant bodies, it is surprising that the National Economic Council (NEC) has told the president to withdraw the bills because governors were not consulted. It is not only the NEC that rejected the bills, the North, its governors, traditional rulers and the umbrella socio-political group, the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), also objected to them. Indeed, ACF was the first to turn the bills down and instruct its lawmakers to vote against it.

    It is unfortunate that those who have spoken against the bills did not outline what they have against them. The omnibus rejection gives the impression that they did not even study the bills before condemning them. Did they even consider the objectives before coming out with a position? It does not seem so.

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    The four bills spell out their objectives.

    The bills include the Nigeria Tax Bill that is said to aim at eliminating multiple taxation that the organised private sector has fought against for years; the Nigeria Tax Administration Bill that seeks to improve efficiency by harmonising the administrative processes across the country, the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill which seeks to appropriately rename the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), and the Joint Revenue Board Establishment Bill replacing the Joint Tax Board, yet capturing its essence, and then the Office of Tax Ombudsman that is a sort of tribunal to handle all disputations in the course of collection, distribution and use of generated taxes.

    There is no doubt that a lot of work went into drafting the bills. As the bills are now before the National Assembly, we wonder where the fears emanated from. The states claim not to have been consulted, where were the members drawn from? Did they make recommendations during the sittings? Why did they wait for the bills to be presented to the legislature before raising their objection?

    As the president has rightly responded, the matter is before the National Assembly and the governors, individually or collectively under the aegis of NEC, could make their position known at the committee stage. Besides, to convince the public that its objection is not driven by sheer hysteria without facts as Senator Shehu Sani who was in the Senate in the 8th assembly has said: Which of the bills would affect the North adversely, in their opinion?

    Leaders from all parts of the country should carefully weigh their positions on every matter before presenting them to the public as it could further drive a wedge between the various ethnic groups, which is not what Nigeria needs at the moment. The led need to be properly guided if the nation is to make progress.

    Again, whoever has objection to any of the bills should prepare to make his position known when they are being considered by the National Assembly. NEC, in particular, should know better. The elaborate tax reform is not targeted at any region or state. It is in the interest of all as the tax-to-GDP ratio in Nigeria is one of the lowest, even in Africa.

  • Enough is enough

    Enough is enough

    Drivers brutalising LASTMA officials should be dealt with to the full extent of the law

    If the most recent encounter between a commercial vehicle driver and some officials of the Lagos State Traffic Management Authority (LASTMA) is anything to go by, there is still a long way to go in the management of relations between the state traffic officials and drivers who commit infractions on the roads.

    On November 5, a LASTMA official was set ablaze by the driver of a commercial Volkswagen T4 bus with licence plate LSD 355 CK. The driver also set his bus ablaze. The vehicle was intercepted for allegedly violating traffic regulations in the Cele inward Mile 2 area of Lagos.

    A statement   by Adebayo Taofiq, director of public affairs and enlightenment department of LASTMA shared the information on the incident on X.com.  According to the statement, “The Lagos State Traffic Management Authority (LASTMA) is aware of a distressing video showing the driver of a Volkswagen T4 commercial bus, licence plate LSD 355 CK, setting both his vehicle and LASTMA officers ablaze in a brazen attempt to evade arrest.

    “In the course of the arrest, the driver and his conductor became violent, pouring petrol on LASTMA personnel and engaging in hostile confrontations and physical attacks against the officers present’’, the statement said adding that “the injured LASTMA officer, who sustained severe burns, was immediately taken to a nearby hospital for urgent medical treatment.”

    There had been several attacks on LASTMA personnel in the line of duty. A few days to Christmas in 2016, a Level 14 officer of the authority, Mr. Tajudeen Olatunji Bakare, had his eyes plucked out, even as he was stabbed and eventually stoned to death inside a gutter into which he fell, in the Apapa area of Lagos, over an incident in which the authority’s officials were not the cause but were pounced on nonetheless, due to misinformation by an eye witness.

    Since then, several other LASTMA personnel had been attacked with dangerous weapons by motorists while some had actually been knocked down deliberately by some lawless drivers. Many of them had been maimed or paralysed; that is in cases where they survive to tell the story.

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    This is not good enough.

    We know that every job has its hazards; but it is a different kettle of fish when law enforcement officials are mobbed by people who have scant regard for traffic rules or law and order, generally; and are ready to pounce on law enforcers at the slightest or no provocation.

    Perhaps it is high time the state government ensured that motorists caught rough-handling LASTMA or other state officials on duty are compelled to undergo mental test, to ascertain if they are fit to drive. Some of these commercial drivers have had to strip completely naked when arrested for one offence or the other on the road. We do not think anyone with a sound mind would ever contemplate such a course of action, not to talk of engage in it.

    It is also worthwhile for the state government to conduct continual training for LASTMA personnel on the need for civility in the course of their duties. Some offenders would readily cooperate when approached in a polite manner by the traffic officials.

    Each time an incident like this happens; the state government always threatens to deal with perpetrators, to check such tendencies among the motoring public. There is the need to live up to such threats. The fact is; that is the only language law breakers who hide under mob action to perpetrate evil understand. They need to be taught that the officials that they maim or kill are fathers, mothers, husbands, wives, etc. to some people who would sorely miss them should the unexpected happen. It is equally demoralising for those in service if senseless people continue to snuff lives out of them without serious consequences.

    LASTMA officials are on the roads to ensure sanity and free flow of traffic. The purpose for establishing the authority would have been defeated if some irresponsible elements on the roads can just continue to kill or brutalise them wantonly.

  • Kind gesture

    Kind gesture

    • President Tinubu’s magnanimity in freeing the ‘hungry minors’ is commendable

    President Bola Tinubu ordered the release of minors among the 114 protesters arraigned for treason, after what many regard as the dramatic fainting of some of them generated furore. Some of the protesters had openly waived Russian flags, and canvassed for the military to overthrow the democratic government, apparently drawing inspiration from neighbouring countries.

    They violently looted and destroyed public property across states in the northeast and northwest. The 114 indicted included 29 children, and four amongst the first batch dramatically fainted simultaneously, in open court.

    Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, said the president ordered the Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Lateef Fagbemi, SAN, to take over the prosecution of the case. He also ordered investigation of the arrest, detention, and treatment of the minors. Furthermore, he asked that concerned law enforcement agents be investigated, and anyone found culpable be sanctioned appropriately. We commend the president for intervening on compassionate grounds, despite the gravity of the charge.

    But we are shocked that some governors chose to treat the misguided children as heroes. They are not; even though we support their release from trial, hoping they would not engage in such actions again.

    We are also baffled by the tardiness of the prosecution, which joined minors with adult offenders in the same criminal trial. Ordinarily, the minors should have been separated and dealt with as child offenders. Lumping them together showed lack of capacity by the prosecution, except it was a deliberate sabotage of the entire criminal prosecution.

    While the charge for treason is the high end of offences, which may have been committed, there are other lesser offences against public peace, within the purview of affected states, to punish. The government of Kano State which almost lost the government house to the riotous mob seems to be more interested in making political capital out of the tragedy.

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    With regards to a child offender, the penal code clearly exculpates a child under seven years from criminal responsibility, while for a child above seven years, but under 12 years, the person must not have attained sufficient maturity of understanding to judge the nature and consequence of such act. The determination of whether there was lack of understanding or overt determination to commit criminal acts lies with the trained mind of a judge.  

    But sadly, everything was muddled up, perhaps on the altar of politics, with its far-reaching consequences. The governors should know that the major cause of the mayhem was the high level of illiteracy and out-of-school children in the region. While there are about 5.06 million out-of-school children in the northeast, there are about 8.04 million in the northwest. Again, literacy rates in the northwest is 38 percent, and 42 percent in the northeast.

    These are agents of combustion at the slightest or no reason at all. Some governors, instead of being alarmed at the crisis facing them, pretended it was the Federal Government’s problem. But they have the primary responsibility to remove the underlining causes of such crisis.

    We urge the states and local governments to start remedial courses and skill training for their millions of out- of-school children. Unless they make concerted efforts to turn the tide, insecurity in their states would continue to rise. And criminal elements, such as the Boko Haram and other terrorist groups, would easily recruit from the army of illiterates and jobless fellows in their states.

    So, there is no other way to escape the crisis facing their states than to squarely tackle it head-on.

    We hope that relevant lessons have been learnt by the states and the Federal Government officials, especially the police, on how to handle such a situation in the future.

  • Avoidable tragedies

    Avoidable tragedies

    • We can do with fewer building collapses if governments and citizens play their parts well

    In what has become a reflexive and routine response during such now frequent occurrences, the Governor of Oyo State, Mr Seyi Makinde, and the Olubadan of Ibadan, Oba Akinloye

    Owolabi Olakulehin, Ige Olakulehin 1, sent separate condolence messages to victims and families of those affected by the collapse of a building in Ibadan, the state capital, early this month. At least 13 persons are reported to have lost their lives and several others injured in the tragic incident which occurred around 2am in the Jegede Olunloyo community in Ona Ara Local Government Area, while officers of the Oyo State Fire Agency rescued seven persons alive.

    Both the Oyo State governor and the Ibadan monarch described the building collapse as avoidable and inexcusable, and the governor promised that the incident would be thoroughly investigated by the state authorities to determine its cause and forestall future occurrences.

    But, despite such messages of sympathy and promises of fact-finding probes when such tragedies happened anywhere in the country in the past, building collapse continues to be an alarmingly recurring phenomenon across Nigeria.

    For instance, on Monday, November 4, a two-storey building under construction collapsed at about 2pm at the Egela Mgbaraba area of Ogbogoro community in Obio/Akpor Local Government Area of Rivers State. The incident occurred while contractors were working on the site, resulting in the death of one worker while another sustained serious injuries. Three weeks before this, another building was reported to have collapsed at the Iriebe axis of the same local government area, although no life was lost in that case.

    Apart from condoling the family of the deceased victim of the November 4 building collapse, the Rivers State government has sealed the premises of the structure and declared the property developer, Vincent Nwoye, wanted. The state commissioner for physical planning and urban development, Mr Evans Bipi, accused the developer of gross negligence and violation of the building laws and regulations of the state, including failure to obtain government-approved building plan, and use of substandard materials.

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    Initial eyewitness accounts at the building collapse site reported that the foundation of the building was only three feet deep, which is inadequate for a two-storey building; insufficient cement was used in casting the first decking; the decking was not chained and had no centre beam or pillar in the middle while the quality of iron rods was below the required standard. According to Mr Bipi, “The government has sealed this property in question and declared the owner wanted because a life has been lost; we need to question him to know why he chose to use substandard materials to execute the project and why he decided to use a 12mm rod for a 2-storey building.

    “It would interest the public to know that even the property does not have government approval; it is something the government will not take lightly; we will use this developer as a scapegoat for others to learn“.

    But then, the ire of the Rivers State government must be directed not only at the property developer, if the allegations are proven to be true, but also to the leaders and staff of the regulatory agencies which have the responsibility of monitoring and ensuring adherence to stipulated laws, building codes and quality of materials by property developers.

     Incidentally, the preliminary causal factors identified in the Rivers State building collapse have also been severally cited as being responsible for the high number of such occurrences, particularly in urban areas across the country.

    It is disturbing that those found culpable in the scores of previous building collapses have hardly ever been prosecuted to serve as a deterrence to those who violate building codes and regulations with impunity at various levels.

    There must be a coordinated effort spearheaded by government to get all stakeholders in the construction industry to collectively seek solutions to these challenges. We endorse the recommendation by the Building Collapse Prevention Guild that state governments should adapt and enforce the National Building Code since this is a problem that affects the entire country.

  • Nigeria’s crumbling gas sector

    Nigeria’s crumbling gas sector

    •More investments necessary to increase production

    Sometimes in Nigeria, it doesn’t just rain, but pours. As if its declining oil production that has seen her fall behind OPEC’s quota is not crippling enough, she faces a no less calamitous threat in the dwindling gas exports. According to reports, Nigeria’s gas exports are said to have fallen by 43 per cent over the last eight months of the year.

    We are talking here of a shortfall of some 9.43 million tonnes valued at $7.9 billion. And this is at a time its competitors like Russia have ramped up their exports by 11 per cent, Norway, by 19 per cent and Algeria, nine per cent – all of them ostensibly taking advantage of Nigeria’s crumbling export and the high demand from the European market.

    The trend, unfortunately, didn’t start in the last eight months. According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), gas exports have been on the decline by some 25.5 percent over the last three years due to low gas production. From export sales of 1.14 million standard cubic feet per day (MMSCF) in 2021, the exports are reported to have dipped to 847,755 MMSCF in 2023.

    An industry chieftain, Joshua Olorunmaiye, was quoted by ‘Businessday’ newspaper as attributing the significant drop to recent exits/divestment of major producers, notably Shell, Eni, Equinnor and ExxonMobil, from Nigeria, aside the legendary factor of lack of investment in key fields.

    The obverse side – which could be deemed as positive – is the significant rebound in domestic gas utilisation in recent time. Specifically, in the two years 2022 – 2023, domestic consumption is said to have risen from 569,329 MMSCF to 649,930 MMSCF, an increase of approximately 14.1 percent – thanks to the Petroleum Industry Act which prescribes and allocates the domestic gas delivery obligation among all lessees before March 1 of each year. Although not entirely surprising, that gas exports have suffered the same fate with crude oil is certainly unfortunate. Like crude oil, the Nigerian gas story has been one of unending paradoxes. Although it enjoys a pre-eminent status of harbouring the ninth largest proven reserves globally, the sector, according to the global accounting and consulting firm, PwC, has remained largely underdeveloped, with production­ to­ reserves at a miserably low level of approximately one percent. And whereas PwC estimates that the country’s gas, when harnessed, can stimulate an estimated Gross Value Added (GVA) of US$18.3 billion annually to the domestic economy, a huge chunk of the gas is flared, the rest being in the belly of the earth – untapped. 

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    No doubt, domestic utilisation has begun to gain traction in the last few years but then, the current levels of investments in gas production and utilisation are still far behind what is needed to turn the fortunes of the sector around. Here again, PwC will also note that optimising the domestic utilisation of gas could support 6.5 million Full Time Equivalent (FTE) jobs for the local economy.

    To put the situation in more gripping perspective, the global accounting firm estimates that Nigeria could potentially save over N10 trillion every year if all the vehicles in Lagos, Port Harcourt and Abuja are converted to use Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) instead of the conventional petroleum products.That is the kind of treasure which Nigeria sits upon, but whose optimisation continues to be buffeted by factors that could best be described as inexplicable.

    It is in the light of the above that the issue of its precipitous export decline ought to be seen as mere symptom of a more debilitating national malaise.

     For, while our inability to deliver on our export commitments should ordinarily be concerning, even more so should be the aspirations of a nation, which although ranks in the top 10 position in the global gas market, has remained a virtual non-starter, whether in the domestic or in the global marketplace, due chiefly to short-sighted gas policies.

    As it is, the task comes basically to tweaking the policies, especially in terms of the removal of those obstacles impeding production. This is something the government is best placed to do and must be done to scale and urgently. Maintaining the current tempo of domestic gas utilisation is certainly important just as the need to continually grow the country’s export share has also become an imperative in the current circumstances. That is the surest way to address the paradox. Simply put: nothing will happen unless the government pushes hard to make them happen. New investments are needed and fast. And just as it has become increasingly obvious, the country’s energy salvation lies within – not abroad. For, while there is still ample room for big multinationals to play, what their current wave of divestment suggests is the need to increasingly carve up the space for competent local actors – and they are many – as part of the country’s strategic plans for the future.

     For, true as might seem of gas as the energy of the foreseeable future, it certainly will not happen without the appropriate policies and investments being in place. That is why everything must be done to ensure that the local economy is not left behind.

  • Wider net for dollars

    Wider net for dollars

    •Can mopping up dollars in the informal market boost the Naira’s exchange rate?

    From October 31, 2024, till July 3, 2025, holders of US dollars, outside the Nigerian financial system, can bring them into the banks — no questions asked, beyond the normal bank-customer due diligence — so long as the dollar cash haul is no proceeds of crime. That opens a nine-month fresh window.

    The Nigerian economy is peculiar for its huge informal sector, even with the deliberate policy to increase formalisation over the past few years. Though no legal tender here, is the dollar, as storage against the Naira often battered by inflation, swarming the economy, so much so that it’s creating a huge, informal parallel? 

    That’s not clear, from the dire dearth of statistics. But this new policy directive, which clearly aims at mopping up every dollar in the local economy, points in that direction. In any case, the economy’s coordinating minister hinted as much, when he explained how those outlying dollars could “… add to our reserves, and of course … help with the exchange rate.”

    Is that the ultimate strategy of the renewed policy, which nevertheless is experiencing a new nine-month fresh window? And if it is, is the dollar in the informal sector huge enough to deliver this cherished goal of helping to strengthen the Naira, as a strategic policy to curb inflation? Time will tell.

    Speaking to State House correspondents after the meeting of the National Economic Council (NEC) — Nigeria’s prime economic advisory body, chaired by Vice President Kashim

    Shettima — Minister of Finance and

    Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, made the new policy announcement.

    “There is going to be a release today, details by the Federal Government through the Ministry of Finance, in conjunction with the Central Bank, a programme, starting today, the 31 of October, and lasting nine months, that will allow people to bring in cash that is outside the banking system” he announced.

    “It is unsafe,” he continued. “It is unsecured and it is outside of legal limits. They will allow forbearance to bring dollar cash. Let me emphasise once again that it is to bring dollars that they are holding outside the system; to be able to bring them in and credit them to their bank accounts, as long as it not proceeds of crime or illicit money. There will be no penalty,” he insisted, “there will be no taxes, and there will be no questions.”

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    It’s quite a solid incentive, though not a few still say the government should add more sweeteners to galvanise higher compliance. Normally, there appears no legal limit to dollars citizens can hold on to, outside the financial system. 

    But since the dollar is a foreign currency, a limit of US$ 10, 000 would appear reasonable, since that is what a traveller can bring into the country, without any formal declaration. In any case, before the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) reforms of 1986, dollarisation was not an issue; and the extant laws back then deemed it needless to address it. 

    That has, however, changed over the years. So, the laws need a lot of catching up to do. Therefore, it’s not unreasonable to project that not a few would have more than US$ 10, 000 — indeed, multiple of dollars — at home!

    Now, bar crime, if the government decides to overlook statutory sanctions and forgo legitimate tax, just to allow seamless deposits of dollars — and other foreign currencies — then it must boast intelligence that suggests the quantum of the dollar — and other currencies’ — haul could be huge.

    The follow-up guidelines to the minister’s announcement is instructive — that deposit banks can trade with their dollar hauls, so long as they make the money available to the depositor, any time he wants it.

    That rather sweetly dovetails into the minister’s sentiments while opening the window: from taking away the dollars from home tills where they are idle and earn nothing, into the banking system, where the money can work for the depositors. It’s a logical proposition.

    Still, it would appear a far cry from altering the negative dollar/Naira fundamentals, to the extent of crashing the Naira/dollar parity. That will be achieved by heightened local economy activity, mainly in processed agriculture and in manufacturing; and by diversifying Nigeria’s export portfolio beyond crude oil. 

    With local refining though, the prospects of exported petroleum products, to earn forex, appear brighter. Processed agriculture could well join in that export mix. These are more guaranteed ways to strengthen the Naira. But it’s pretty much dawn on that long day. Mopping up dollars won’t deliver any short-term miracle.

  • Trump: US will see de facto tiers of citizenship based on race

    Trump: US will see de facto tiers of citizenship based on race

    • By Rohit Chopra

    There is a story, much beloved of historians and pundits, of the Chinese leader, Zhou Enlai, being asked what he thought about the impact of the French Revolution. Zhou’s answer, apparently, was that it was too soon to tell.

    In the case of Trump’s sweeping victory in the just-concluded 2024 US Presidential Election, that response might make more sense, given that it has been only a few days since the declaration of the results and that it will be two months till he assumes the presidency. Yet, his record as the American president from 2016 to 2020 and his relentless expression of extremist sentiments in the course of his campaign give us some sense of what lies ahead.

    The most dire consequence of Trump 2.0, should his plans come to fruition will be the gradual transformation of the US into a racialised carceral state. Trump appears set to embark on implementing his campaign vow of deporting undocumented migrants, including those who arrived in the US as children, as well as those who have permission to stay temporarily in the US on humanitarian grounds.

    This project, though, should be understood more broadly as one in which the movements and agency of specific social groups are subject to restrictions and barriers, and one which, consequently, creates de facto tiers of citizenship even among legal citizens based on their race.

    Stephen Miller, the former advisor to Trump, has already declared that the administration will undertake denaturalisation of various US citizens. The objective of the mass deportation of millions of people will require the detention of large numbers of individuals as an interim step. Discussions regarding the construction of centres to hold detainees are already underway among Trump’s allies and advisors. The stock price of private prison companies that will benefit from contracts to build these centers has immediately soared after Trump’s victory.

    Along with the horrific social costs and unimaginable cruelty of these actions, the economic consequences will be devastating for the US in terms of their impact on GDP and their burden on numerous industries. The cost of just the deportations range from 88 billion dollars to 315 billion dollars a year.

    Compounded with the inflationary pressures that Trump’s promised tariffs will unleash, there is simply no way in which these measures will redress the economic burdens that large numbers of Americans feel they have been saddled with as a result of the policies of the Biden-Harris administration over the last few years.

    Despite the US economy having been on firm footing for the last year, the “vibecession”, or sense of living through a recession, in the term coined by economic commentator Kyla Scanlon, was apparently a significant factor in the strong support for Trump among voters across most demographics.

    Yet, though economic populism may have played an important role in the election results, Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric, overt racism about non-White groups, and hysterical invocations of nativist nationalism should leave no doubt that his presidency will essentially be a White majoritarian project as indeed was his campaign.

    Mass deportations are a key initiative of Trump’s Day 1 agenda, and he has recently issued a statement that considerations of cost will not prevent him from undertaking these endeavors. It is entirely unsurprising that Trump won the majority of the White vote, with the majority of White women voting for Trump as well.

    Trump’s support among the majority of White women, given his conviction for sexual assault, the record of countless allegations along similar lines, and litany of rank misogynist remarks, reveals the ugly reality of the pervasive racism in American society. Misogyny and the lack of belief in the capability of a woman to be president, factors that arguably cut across demographics, played a role in the election results, as did economic considerations, but the centrality of race as a factor simply cannot be ignored.

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    Trump’s significant gains among Latino voters, men in particular, may seem to contradict this but the range and diversity of the social groups encompassed under the term “Latino” provide an explanation. An academic colleague (who wishes to remain anonymous), an expert on South and Central American communities in the US, shared with me that the term “Latino” encompasses numerous immigrant streams in the US, with histories that are distinct yet entangled in enormously complex ways.

    There are tensions among these communities, among those who have emigrated legally and those who are undocumented, and between sections that identify as White or multiracial and those who are marked as not White.

    Perhaps it is not a coincidence that Elon Musk, who has mutated progressively from liberal to rabid right-wing demagogue, and has thrown his lot in with Trump with the objective of remaking America, grew up in apartheid South Africa.

    Project 2025, a blueprint for transforming American society along deeply conservative lines, also emphasises mass deportations as well as ending federal support for initiatives related to diversity, equity, and inclusion.

    And yet, most of the election post-mortem in mainstream American media is silent about the extent to which racism might have influenced the election. That silence reflects a particularly American malaise, that of historical amnesia and an unease across most of the political spectrum in talking about racism as an abiding, and central, force in American society.

    The racialised carceral state that threatens to come into being under Trump is, tragically, not an entirely new creature. For much of their history, the experience of non-White groups in America, whether it African-Americans, or those of Asian or Latino ancestry, has been that of living under such a state, the anchor and foundation of a segregated society.

    The reborn racialised carceral state, though, will be much more powerful, with its capabilities for violence and surveillance amplified exponentially. As it lurks in the shadows, like Yeats’ proverbial rough beast, its hour come around again, slouching toward Bethlehem to be reborn, we can only hope that Marx’s words that history repeats itself as tragedy and farce come true.

    Given that we have already suffered these tragedies before, perhaps the spirit of history, or some deux ex machina, or residual force of American democracy, will put paid to the ambitions of the project of the carceral state, rendering it a brief nightmare rather than a horrifying reality that materialises again.

    • This article was first published in www.scroll.in under the headline ‘With Trump re-election, US will see de facto tiers of citizenship based on race’
  • Trump II

    Trump II

    • America elects a felon into the White House

    After a gruelling and bitter election season, Donald Trump has defeated his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, to become the United States’ 47th president-elect. It was a poll that defied many things. It defied the polls that predicted a nail-biter, but it was rather a shellacking.

    Americans will hardly trust their pollsters going forward. Maybe the pollsters will relearn and reboot their polling infrastructure and systems for credibility. This is the third straight electoral cycle when the polls lost out to reality. On the eve of the polls, a poll predicted Harris would win the state of Iowa. The reality was a triple-digit success for Trump.

    The election defied moral view. It anointed a criminal and convicted felon, a 34-count verdict hanging over his head as he strides, next January, in a halo of America’s majesty into the White House.

    It defied the hope for the first coloured woman, first Indian or Asian blood, first second-generation immigrant to be clad in the robes of the first citizen of the most powerful country on earth.

    Rather, Mr. trump rode to victory beating his own first crack. He clutched the majority of votes, which haunted him in 2016. The American system did not ride on numbers of electors but the spread, but in their own case, it is determined by the electoral college. Each state has electoral counts and a winner must hit the 270 thresholds.

    In spite of his slur words, his racial spews and unabashed bigotry, most Americans rallied behind him. It was a victory for populism of the vile and vitriolic sort. This is the first time a democracy calibrated as a model will vote in a bigot, a felon, liar, reviler of women, a bully into the most awesome office in the world. He has crafted the mystique of a bully as hero.

    This is a man who described developing countries such as ours as ‘shithole’, and yet, even in Nigeria, he has attracted impressive numbers of admirers, even lovers. Those who are priests who preach “thou shall not lie,” “thou shall not commit adultery,” and “thou shall not steal,” consecrated him and asked their folks to vote for him. Not only that he has been found guilty of all these, but also that he believes, against all evidence, that he is innocent. And he has become the beloved of the righteous nation. They turned his adversity into encouragement and now into a boost of sacrament.

    Read Also: Atiku fancies himself as Trump

    The United States’ Republican Party is the party of the conservatives, and Trump has taken advantage of them. We can understand why some Nigerians admire him. One, he flatters the Nigerian religious sentiment with his lashing out at gays/lesbians, or what is known as LGBTQ, his condemnation of abortion rights, and his support of Christian ethos in general. Yet, he is a

    known lecher, who does not read the bible, or go to church. He once called first Corinthians one Corinthians.

    If Christianity is about love, he is about stoking up hate. And he gets away with it by not getting away from it. One of his taunt victims is the Hispanic whom he described as murderers and rapists. Yet, in the last poll, Hispanics voted for him in historic numbers in the nation’s history for Republican candidates. This is what psychologists call the Stockholm Syndrome, that is: bonding with your oppressor.

    One of his signature campaign ideas was to double down on immigration. Who are those streaming into the country through the borders? Hispanics. Yet, they voted for him in record numbers. It is possible that the Hispanic would rather vote for him as a white man than for a woman who is black. If the election was about rejecting a black woman, it was also about other minorities bonding with the whites instead of black woman, even if the white man has cursed them in the open square.

    The rise in inflation and complaints over economic struggles were facts, but they provided the pretext to reject a woman of non-white ethnicity and justify their choices as noble, not bigoted.

    Trump was so strong at the polls that even in otherwise Democratic strongholds, his acceptance competed, especially in New York, New Jersey and Virginia. In the so-called Blue Wall, he lost all the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in record numbers.

    Trump has not been known to merely bluster. When he makes promises, he tries to deliver. But not always. He began building the wall on the Mexican border, although he could not go far. He

    pursued the Muslim ban. He coddled dictators around the world. He also threatened to leave NATO and that forced the Trans-Atlantic partners in Europe to boost their budgets out of panic. Now, he has promised mass deportation, high tariffs and onslaught on his political enemies. He did not do these in his first coming. But Barack Obama is known to be the deportation monster for record mass deportation of illegal immigrants, a Democrat and black man. He beat Trump in that department. We are looking forward to what the second term will look like.

    It must be noted that record numbers of black men also voted for Trump, which may also indicate that the black men caught the Stockholm Syndrome, and associated with a white man rather than a woman of colour – of mixed and Indian descent – that they might have regarded as not black enough.

    While the post-mortem of the elections is still ongoing, the world waits to see how he will handle a restive world with Russia hectoring Ukraine and the Middle East burning with sectarian conflicts.

  • Taoreed Lagbaja (1968 – 2024)

    Taoreed Lagbaja (1968 – 2024)

    • He brought professionalism and compassion to bear in his calling

    His appointment as the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) in June 2023 had promised a reinvigorated war against agents of insecurity, especially Islamic terrorists, murderous separatists, bandits and kidnappers. He visibly made efforts to deal with the country’s troubling security challenges and had achieved some successes, including dispatching an impressive number of notorious bandits in the north.

     Lt. Gen. Taoreed Abiodun Lagbaja’s death on November 5, after about 16 months in office, has serious implications for the efforts to tackle insecurity in the country. He was 56. 

    The immediate challenge facing the army following his death is to ensure that its fighters in conflict zones remain focused on their task. As army boss, he had made frequent visits to conflict zones to boost the morale of frontline troops. He also paid particular attention to the welfare of the troops, and emphasised discipline and professionalism.

    Under him, the army made a significant move to acquire attack helicopters to strengthen its potency. In June, two Bell UH-1H helicopters were reported to have arrived in the country, and 10 more were being expected.  He also introduced the Smart Soldier Initiative, which involves the use of high technology to enhance the army’s operations against agents of insecurity and help to protect frontline troops. This was aimed at further modernising the army.  

    Also, during his tenure, the army intensified operations against crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism in the Niger Delta, helping to recover considerable quantities of stolen crude oil and safeguarding the country’s oil infrastructure.

    More than 300 terrorist commanders were reported to have been eliminated by the army under him. However, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, a US-based nonprofit, about 1,600 people, including military personnel, were killed during his tenure.

    Importantly, in September, he offered notable suggestions on ending the country’s security crisis in the first strategic personality lecture of the Institute of Peace and Strategic Studies, University of Ibadan, which was delivered on his behalf by the General Officer Commanding 2 Division of the Nigerian Army, Maj. Gen. Obinna Onubogu. According to Lagbaja, “The twin problems of unemployment and poverty have given impetus to security challenges, as the unemployed and poor are susceptible to recruitment by criminals and violent non-state actors.”

    He said: “A whole-of-society approach must be implemented in Nigeria by leveraging the strength of every stakeholder to ensure a cohesive and coordinated response to threats. To achieve this, there must be enhanced communication, cooperation, and trust among the different sectors and efforts must be aligned with national interests and other security objectives.” He added: “The strategy can potentially address the root causes of insecurity, such as poverty, unemployment, and social injustice often exploited by adversaries.”

    Read Also: IGP orders police officers to wear black bands over Lagbaja’s death

    Born in Ilobu, in present-day Osun State, he attended the Nigerian Defence Academy (NDA), Kaduna, and was commissioned as a second lieutenant into the Nigerian Army Infantry Corps in 1992. He got a first degree in Geography from NDA in 2001. He also earned a master’s degree in Strategic Studies from the US Army War College. He was Director of Operations at the Army Headquarters, Department of Army Training and Operations, from January to December 2018. He was Commander of Headquarters 9 Brigade, Ikeja, Lagos State, and Headquarters 2 Brigade, Uyo, Akwa Ibom State. Before his elevation to the COAS, he was General Officer Commanding Headquarters 82 Division from March 2021 to August 2022, and Headquarters 1 Division from August 2022 to June 2023.

    In separate posthumous tributes, President Bola Tinubu and Chief of Defence Staff Christopher Musa captured his service to the country. Tinubu said he “demonstrated exceptional leadership and commitment,” and “played pivotal roles in numerous internal security operations, including ‘Operation ZAKI’ in Benue State, ‘Lafiya Dole’ in Borno, ‘Udoka’ in Southeast Nigeria, and ‘Operation Forest Sanity’ across Kaduna and Niger states.” Musa extolled his “sterling performance, courage and steadfast commitment to safeguarding Nigeria’s sovereignty.”

    The greatest tribute to him is for the armed forces to continue to pursue with a sense of purpose the defeat of the agents of insecurity across the country.