- Abiodun, Makinde, AbdulRazak keep cards close to chest
- Anxiety in states as aspirants intensify consultations
All appears not to be well between many second term governors and party stakeholders over succession to government houses in 2027, an investigation by The Nation has shown.
The rank and file of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Lagos, Ogun, Kwara, and Nasarawa as well as those of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Oyo and Adamawa are worried that the governors are keeping them in the dark over their possible replacements.
Alleged governorship aspiration of the Minister of Petroleum Resources (Gas) Ekperikpe Ekpo on the platform of APC in Akwa Ibom State is generating tension of its own.
Sources said Governor Umo Eno had been assured by the APC hierarchy of a second term ticket as a condition for his defection from PDP in June.
Party members in the state are upset that the minister’s aspiration could threaten internal cohesion.
Members of the APC in Lagos State are eager to know the party’s stand on its possible flag bearer in 2027 and the senatorial district he might come from.
Since 1999, it could be said that only one party has maintained dominance in Lagos State.
Eyes are on the Centre of Excellence for three reasons. The first is that Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu will be completing his second term in 2027. Succession politics fills the air. Across the political parties, the nomination of candidates will follow the usual complex and challenging processes.
The second is that Lagos is the base of the President, and at least, in the ruling party, the buck may stop at his table.
The third is that the ruling party can hardly drop its guard, given its 2023 experience when the incumbency power and influence collapsed during the presidential poll with the Labour Party (LP) triumphing over the supposedly poll-confident APC.
But the contemporary history of Lagos also attests to the mystery of its succession politics whereby since 2007, there is no member of ruling parties – AD, AC, ACN and APC – who vied for the ticket and got it without President Bola Tinubu’s backing.
The governors who are Tinubu’s successors – Babatunde Fasola, Akinwunmi Ambode and Sanwo-Olu – have one thing in common. In the real sense of the word, they are not politicians with solid personal structures, but technocrats – lawyer, chartered accountant and banker – who became outstanding in public service as Chief of Staff, Accountant-General and Commissioner.
Whether that pattern of nomination of a competent and suitable candidate for the ruling party will be sustained or changed will depend on certain dynamics in the nearest future.
Factors usually considered, apart from competence and acceptability to the electorate, are zoning, which is not sacrosanct; religious balancing, which also may not be a strong issue in the Southwest; and gender parity, depending on the pre-determined outcome of the nominations, either through direct primary, indirect option or consensus which is now remote.
The only sub-zone rooting for zoning or rotation in 2027 is Badagry Division in the Lagos West Senatorial District. The activities of some politicians from the area in this regard are visible in the media.
Once the candidate receives the majority endorsement in the ruling party, post-primary crisis is nipped in the bud and party faces the election squarely.
There will be no shortage of aspirants on the platform of APC, with the majority of them from Lagos East.
Unlike in other states, however, the potential contenders are careful not to divert the attention of the governor and heat up the state. They are only intensifying consultations and underground mobilisation within the party structures.
A source said four are in the race as a strategy to draw attention so that they can be considered for other positions if the governorship ticket predictably slips away.
The potential Lagos APC aspirants are in four categories. The first category comprises former aspirants who are likely to throw their hats in the ring again.
The first is Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat, who competed with Ambode at the 2015 primary, and was offered the running mate in 2019 before stepping down for Sanwo-Olu.
Since he joined the Tinubu administration as a commissioner in 2002/3, he has always been in government. He served in the eight years of Fashola as commissioner before becoming Special Adviser to him while he was works minister.
The second in the category is Tokunbo Wahab, Environment Commissioner. He is a lawyer. Before his current assignment, he had served as Special Adviser on Education.
The third is the Chief of Staff, Tayo Ayinde, who was preferred as successor to Ambode by some influential associates of Tinubu in 2015. A security expert, he was the campaign manager for Sanwo-Olu in the Independent Campaign Group in 2019 and 2023.
The second category is made up of experienced politicians who are coveting the seat and putting up personal structures to actualise their dream. These include Presidential Chief of Staff and former House of Representatives Speaker Femi Gbajabiamila, who has sponsored empowerment programmes in Surulere Constituency and beyond; House of Assembly Speaker Mudashiru Obasa, who was reinstated after his impeachment as head of the legislative arm; and former Governor Ambode, whose second term bid hit the rocks. They are all in positions to fund state-wide governorship campaigns.
The third category is made up of young men and women of note and distinction who have excelled and earned good reputation in politics, public service and personal endeavours. One of them is Hakeem Muri-Okunola, a lawyer who had served as Head of Service in Lagos State before becoming Principal Private Secretary to the President.
Also, mention has been made of the Minister of Education, Dr. Tunji Alausa, who is up and doing in his current assignment. A distinguished medical doctor, he is a former Minister of State for Health.
Others include House of Representatives member from Ikorodu, Jimi Benson, and his predecessor, Abike Dabiri-Erewa, who is the chairman of the Diaspora Commission.
The last category is made up of technocrats in APC; patriotic, experienced in public administration, competent and loyal party stalwarts who mean well for the party, its leadership and the state, but who may not personally seek the governorship ticket unless they are called upon to take up the role in furtherance of their dedicated service to the state, the nation and humanity.
In this mould, according to party sources, is Tokunbo Abiru, chartered accountant, banker and senator representing Lagos East District.
He had resigned as Finance Commissioner in the Fashola government to take up the job of Executive Director at Syke Bank. He later became Managing Director of Polaris Bank. He succeeded Senator Osinnowo Pepper after his demise. Abiru was re-elected in 2023.
More aspirants are expected when the whistle is blown by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
PDP
The Lagos PDP chapter is not currently in a good shape. It is weakened by protracted crisis, more than its 2023 condition. The chapter is polarised.
But the state executive committee is made up of officers loyal to the BoT member, Chief Olabode George, who is recognised as the leader by the national leadership.
A source said the 2023 LP candidate, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, is being wooed by the chapter ahead of 2027. Currently, LP is enveloped in crisis and there is no end in sight to the logjam.
Rhodes-Vivour was the anointed aspirant until Jide Adediran defected from the APC to PDP, shortly before the last general election.
LP
The mass appeal of LP in the state seems to have evaporated after Rhodes-Vivour lost in the 2023 election. He now courts the ADC. The party is not attractive to politicians who may wish to borrow the platform because of its protracted crisis.
ADC
Lagos ADC is woven around anti-Bode George members of the PDP, including Alhaji Rahman Owokoniran and Funmi Onita-Coker. No aspirant is associated with the platform for now.
But Onita-Coker said: “ADC will definitely field a governorship candidate.”
Nassarawa
The state is currently administered by APC Governor Abdullahi Sule who is over two years into his second term. The APC is the party to beat in the state and is not likely to be short of governorship aspirants.
For now, the two most visible aspirants in the party are Senator Aliyu Wadada and retired Police Inspector General Mohammed Abubakar Adamu.
Wadada, an immensely popular politician, currently represents Nasarawa West in the Red Chamber.
He recently returned to the APC following his resignation from the Social Democratic Party (SDP) on whose platform he got elected in 2023.
He broke ranks with the APC in the run up to the 2023 elections when he was denied the senatorial ticket by the powers that be.
He moved to the SDP and won.
Adamu served as the 20th Inspector General of Police. He was appointed on January 15, 2029 and retired on April 6, 2021.
Governor Sule is mute on his choice.
Ogun
Like Sule, Governor Dapo Abiodun of Ogun State is giving nothing out yet on his preferred candidate for the office that he will be relinquishing in less than two years from now.
But that has not stopped several aspirants from his party-APC- from going about their consultations with the people.
But the greater challenge lies in the reluctance of Ogun East (Ijebu and Remo areas) and Ogun Central (Egba area) to cede the ticket to Ogun West, which has not had its own occupy the office since the creation of the state in 1976.
While Ogun East has produced the late Chief Olabisi Onabanjo, Otunba Gbenga Daniel and the incumbent Abiodun, from Ogun Central came Chief Olusegun Osoba and Ibikunle Amosun.
Different interest groups are assembling teams, building relationships and scanning the political climate across the three senatorial districts ahead of the party primaries.
The governor, who is interested in going to the Senate after his tenure, is currently locked in a battle with the incumbent Senator for Ogun East, Otunba Daniel, after the former governor accused Abiodun of planning to demolish his (Daniel’s) Asoludero Court private residence in Sagamu, and a hotel over alleged building regulation infractions.
Their face turned ugly on Tuesday with the suspension of Daniel by the APC for alleged anti-party activities.
Observers say having used pliant party structure to suspend the ex-governor, Abiodun may have set off a political storm that would keep him too preoccupied and distracted ahead of 2027 that his political goodwill could be adversely affected to make a strong representation on who should be his successor.
So, governorship aspirants in the state seem to be looking beyond Abiodun for backers. They are taking cues from the fate of those who relied on his predecessors but failed in the end. The argument is that if more popular governors like Daniel and Senator Ibikunle Amosun could not produce successors, what chances does Abiodun have to break the jinx?
Governorship aspirants in APC include Ambassador Sarafa Isola, the immediate past Nigeria’s High Commissioner in London; Senator Shuaib Afolabi Salisu; Kayode Amusan, a former member of the House of Representatives; Senator Solomon Adeola; Deputy Governor Noimot Salako-Oyedele; Representative Gboyega Nasir Isiaka; and Representative Abiodun Isiaq Akinlade.
Isola, Salisu and Amusan are Egba while Salako-Oyedele, Isiaka, Akinlade and Adeola are from Ogun West.
The Yewa, Awori and Ogu people of Ogun West are pulling all the strings to have the governorship this time around. They say they can no longer remain spectators while the Ijebu, Remo and Egba continue to dominate the seat.
Observers believe that should APC stakeholders decide to concede the ticket to Ogun West, it will likely go to Adeola who appears to be well connected to the grassroots across the state.
The governorship candidate of PDP in 2023, Oladipupo Adebutu, is also believed to be working underground to have another shot in 2027.
Adebutu though from Iperu, Remo like Abiodun, is plotting to use the platform of Ogun Central to contest.
He recently said he has Egba connection through a village in Odeda Local Government area of the state.
Adebutu is reputed as the sole financier of the Ogun PDP and has taken firm grip of the party structure, using it to corner the governorship ticket to only himself.
But the outing of his party and its candidate in the last by-election in his Ikenne/Sagamu Remo North Federal Constituency does not portray him as one with the kind of influence he claims to have.
Moreover, notable members of the PDP including former chairman of the party in the state, Dr. Sikirulahi Ogundele and Adebutu’s running mate in 2023, Abdulkabir Akinlade, have deserted him for APC.
The ADC and LP are practically non- existent in the state.
Akwa Ibom
Concerned by the alleged aspiration of Mr. Ekperikpe Ekpo to contest the APC ticket with Gov. Eno, some party members petitioned President Tinubu, saying the party’s unity was at stake.
The minister’s action, according to them, is “undermining the party’s unity and creating divisions that are detrimental to our collective success.”
They accused him of being more focused on positioning himself for a future political contest than on delivering results for the party.
The PDP which had ruled the state from 1999 until Eno’s recent defection is now a shadow of its former self.
The rump of its membership are trying to find space in ADC.
Oyo
The result of the recent by-election in Ibadan North Federal Constituency which went in favour of the PDP seems to have strengthened Governor Seyi Makinde’s grip on the party and the state.
Members of the party and the people of the state are anxiously looking forward to January 2026, five months from now, when the Governor promised to reveal his preferred candidate.
Speaking during the 11th Omituntun Ramadan lecture in Ibadan back in March, Makinde said: “In January 2026, we know that political activities will start. I will tell you the picture of the person that will be installed there.”
But while the waiting game continues, speculations are rife about those aspiring for the position in PDP.
They include Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Adebo Ogundoyin; Adebo Akande, Executive Adviser to the Governor on International Cooperation Development and Director-General of the Oyo State Agribusiness Development Agency (OYSADA); Chief Adegboyega Adegoke, businessman, politician, and philanthropist; and Niyi Aborisade, human rights activist and United Kingdom-trained lawyer
From the APC are Power Minister Bayo Adelabu , Special Adviser to the President on Public Communications and Orientation, Mr Sunday Dare; Representative Remi Oseni;and Zacheaus Adedeji, Executive Chairman, Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS).
The party’s governorship candidate in 2023, Senator Teslim Folarin, has been quiet lately.
Members of the APC in the state say the party has immense goodwill but is in dire need of leaders in the mould of the late Abiola Ajimobi, who can seize the momentum and propel the party to the desired height.
The ADC in the state is torn apart by internal challenges. Only recently, its leadership expelled some key members including former Speaker of the Oyo State House of Assembly, Monsurat Sunmonu, and ex-Senator Michael Koleoso, for alleged anti-party activities.
Since the sack, not much has been heard from the party.
Kwara
In Kwara State, alliances are being formed and old tensions are resurfacing ahead of the governorship race.
So far, some governorship aspirants from Kwara North have expressed their intention to seek APC’s governorship ticket for 2027.
They are the Senator representing the zone Sodiq Umar, Hon Danladi-Salihu, Makama of Lafiagi Alhaji Tajudeen Audu and Haliru Dantosho Mahmud.
Governor Abdulraman AbdulRazaq in his first term in office pledged power shift to the zone in 2027.
Stakeholders from the zone are confident of getting the support of the rest of the state and recently convened a meeting to lay the ground for the emergence of the next governor from the zone.
Speaking during the meeting, APC Deputy Chairman in the state Abdullahi Samari said it was to “put our house in order” and to enable the aspirants work together.
He said:”Principally, APC has guidelines and that will be followed before a candidate will emerge. We want to assure Kwarans and Nigerians that those aspiring to govern the state from Kwara north are people with enough wisdom, experience, people with fear of God, love for the masses and have resolved to work together- so that whosever emerges as the candidate at the end of the day with support of our brothers and sisters from other senatorial districts- will cling the seat of power.”
All the four aspirants took their turns to express their resolve to rally round any of them that emerges as the governorship candidate come 2027.
Speaking, Senator Umar said the governorship seat is what the zone has been “hungry for in the interest of Kwara first and, of course, our region.
“All we are asking is for Kwarans to trust us and give us this opportunity to also govern the state.
“There is no division between us. We are all working together. Kwara north is united not divided. We are one people and the same family.”
Former Senate President Bukola Saraki who is the leader of PDP in the state will be key in deciding the party’s flag bearer.
The party is still reeling from its loss of power in the Otoogee rebellion of 2015 and the defection of some key members to ADC.
ADC revs up in Adamawa
The political influence of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar in his home state of Adamawa is still strong, hence the movement of key politicians mainly from his former party PDP to the ADC.
These include the 2023 governorship candidate of APC, Senator Aishatu Ahmed (Binani), former Governor Jibrilla Bindow , Senator Ishaku Abbo; and ADC governorship candidate in 2019, Senator Abdulazeez Nyako, each of whom is keen on being governor.
The ADC has promised to take no sides when the contest starts.
Chairman of the party in Adamawa State, Shehu Yohanna, told The Nation that everyone will have adequate accommodation to thrive.
In the PDP, the political landscape is similarly populated by four formidable contenders.
The four include immediate past speaker of the state House of Assembly and now Senator for the Central Zone, Aminu Iya Abbas.
Like most in the race, he has not officially declared interest, but his associates are preaching his ambition on many of his social media handles.
Iya Abbas who got into the Adamawa House of Assembly in 2019, became Speaker upon reelection in 2023 and got into the Senate in 2023, is a fast riser who is believed to be keenly interested in seeking to move up quickly again for a higher office, the office of Governor.
The incumbent Secretary to the Adamawa State Government (SSG), Auwal Tukur, has the political legacy in a father, Bamanga Tukur, who served as both governor of the defunct Gongola State and then as National Chairman of PDP.
Tukur who was member of the House of Representatives two decades ago, sought to go to the Senate in 2023 but failed to get the PDP ticket for Adamawa Central Zone.
The current Commissioner of Works in Governor Ahmadu Fitiri’s cabinet, Adamu Atiku Abubakar, who is a son of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, is also said to be interested but observers wonder why he would not prefer ADC where his father is now a leader.
The Chief of Staff to the Governor, Dr Amos Sunday, known for his ability to surprise his opponents, is also quietly in the race.
Other contenders in the PDP can be described as new breed politicians who appear to command some following more for their fat purses than for political pedigree.
One of them is Chief Maurice Vonobolki, a financial expert who retired as a bank assistant general manager.
In APC, National Security Adviser (NSA) Nuhu Ribadu, holds the aces.
Ribadu who is the APC leader in Adamawa State by virtue of his NSA Office in Abuja, is also the one in the sure position to decide who gets the party’s ticket for the 2027 governorship election in the state.
Who succeeds Bayelsa’s Diri?
The three senatorial districts in the state are rooting for a fresh look at the power rotation agreement among them.
Some interest groups say with power having gone round all the senatorial districts, the 2027 polls should be an all comers affair.
But this argument has not gone down well with some in Bayelsa East senatorial district, who argue that while the two other districts have had full tenures, it has only had a combined six-year tenure between ex-President Goodluck Jonathan and ex-Gov Timipre Silva.
Ex-President Jonathan served one year into the second term of ex-Gov Dipreye Alamieseigha’s mandate before he was elevated to the office of vice president to ex-President Umaru Yar’Adua.
Ex-Governor Timipre Sylva, accordingly, served only one term after his bid for tenure elongation which he challenged at the courts failed.
However conventional wisdom appears to favour rotation of power.
Within the Bayelsa, All Progressive Congress (APC) top contenders from Bayelsa East said to be interested are incumbent Managing Director of Niger-Delta Development Commission (NDDC), Dr Samuel Ogbuku, ex-Gov Timipre Sylva, Senator Ben Murray- Bruce, Petroleum Minister (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpibiri, from Bayelsa West. His ambition will upset the rotation policy if he decides to gun for the top job.
PDP Governor Duoye Diri has kept his preferred successor close to his chest, but there are speculations that he might settle for Benson Agadaga, the PDP senator representing Bayelsa East.
Aside Senator Agadaga, it was learnt, Gov Diri could settle for his deputy, Senator Lawrence Ewhrudjakpo who hails from Bayelsa East senatorial district.
The National Working Committee of the APC, led by the APC National Chairman, Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda, yesterday met with leaders and stakeholders of the Bayelsa State Chapter of the party, reaffirming the Party’s commitment to inclusivity, unity, and grassroots strengthening ahead of future elections.
Details of the meeting were not immediately available.
Alia in the eye of the storm
Benue State Governor Hyacinth Alia is only two years into his first term but the odds are quite formidable against him already.
But the Reverend Father who refers to himself as Gafa, meaning the powerful Eagle in Tiv, is determined to do two terms.
He has been having running battles with politicians even within his own party, APC, including the state House of Assembly.
At the burial of his traditional ruler in January, Alia said: “For now, I am the only governor of Benue State,” and “if you do not want me, leave the state until after eight years, after my tenure, you can return.”
His Chief Press Secretary, Sir Kula Tersoo said: “Governor Alia has no serious challenger in the 2027 governorship.”
Notwithstanding, several candidates are vying to challenge him in 2027. One of them is Chief Mike Aondoakaa, a former Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice. He is in the APC.
He has been consulting quietly and possesses a massive financial war chest.
There is also Hon. Pastor Terwase Orbunde, a former House of Representatives member and Chief of Staff to former Governor Samuel Ortom.
Prof. Terhemba Shija, a former Commissioner for Information and Culture in Benue State, has also been consulting to take a shot at the 2027 governorship race possible on the platform of ADC.
Honorable Terkaa Ucha, a two-term member of the Benue State House of Assembly, wants to contest on the platform of PDP.
The recent defection of former Senate President David Mark from PDP to ADC has left a vacuum in the PDP in the state.
Those campaigning to displace Otti in 2027 are wasting their time — Says Umuahia Catholic Bishop
The Catholic Bishop of Umuahia Diocese, Dr. Michael Kalu Ukpong, says those campaigning to take over from Governor Alex Otti in 2027 are wasting their time, saying that the Governor’s performance in two years has done the campaign for him.
Bishop Ukpong stated this when he hosted the Governor to a lunch at Mater Dei Cathedral, Umuahia, to celebrate his impactful and remarkable achievements.
The Bishop said that things he thought would be impossible to happen in his lifetime in the state have been made possible by Governor Otti.
He said: ”There was a time I sent you a text, telling you that for the first time, Abians are proud to be Abians. I have not been to Aba for a long time.
“Those living there are telling stories of your good works in Aba, which the Catholic Bishop of Aba, Bishop Echema has also confirmed. We are saying, keep it up.
“If we finish saying everything we are saying without mentioning Igwu (Omenuko) Bridge, then we have not started. Since I became an adult, travelling from Ohafia through Bende-Ohafia Road, once you get to Igwu Bridge, the journey becomes scary until you cross the bridge.
“Once you cross the bridge, you know that you have started your journey. Coming from Umuahia, it was the same thing.
“But now, nobody is scared of the bridge again because of the work you have done there. Hence, we say thank you. What I thought was impossible in the past is now possible.
“I didn’t know that in my lifetime that the bridge would be like what it is now.”
