With the presidential election less than seven weeks from now, our team of correspondents and analysts take a look at how the race is shaping up.
In this instalment which focuses on the Northern zones, Managing Editor (Northern Operations), Yusuf Alli, zeroes in on four presidential candidates who are making varying degrees of impact in the region. They are Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).
He’s supported with additional reports by Kolade Adeyemi (Jos); David Adenuga (Bauchi); Uja Emmanuel (Makurdi); AbdulGafar Alabelewe (Kaduna); Sola Shittu (Gombe); Justina Asishana (Minna); Joel Duku (Maiduguri); Linus Oota (Lafia); Augustine Okezie (Katsina); Onimisi Alao (Yola) and Adekunle Jimoh (Ilorin).
VOTING STRENGTH OF THE NORTH
Out of the interim figure of about 93,522,272 registered voters for this election cycle, 54,571,498 voters are from the North. The South has a voting strength of 47,876,400. The former also records high turnout at elections. For instance, in 2011 the average nationwide voter turnout was 53.68%. Out of that the turnout in the three Northern zones was as follows: North-Central 49%; Northeast 56%; Northwest 56%.
Four years later the average nationally was 43.65%. In the North-Central zone turnout was 43.47%; Northeast 45.22%; Northwest 55.09%. A similar pattern was recorded in 2019 when turnout crashed nationwide by almost 10% to an abysmal low of 34.75%. In the North-Central it was 35.75%; Northeast 41.71%; Northwest 44.00%.
Given this historical trend, the 19 states and Abuja that make up the region cannot be toyed with by those who want to win the election. The serious candidates among the contestants know this and are not leaving anything to chance.
How are they faring in the race thus far?
PLATEAU STATE
REGISTERED VOTERS:
2011 ELECTION RESULT
PDP: 1,029,865; CPC: 365,551;
ACN: 10,181; ANPP 5,235
2015 ELECTION RESULT
PDP: 549,615; APC: 429,140
2019 ELECTION RESULT
PDP: 548,665; APC: 468,555
One key issue that has always been at play in presidential elections is religion. Other factors in the other elections are minority politics, inclination to progressive politics and indigene-settler issues. In the state, Tinubu, Atiku and Obi stand shoulder to shoulder. Ex-Kano Governor Kwankwaso is trailing behind the three candidates, judging by the calibre of notable politicians in the state backing the candidates.
Thus, the 2023 presidential election might be intriguing in the state. The popularity of these candidates and their parties make predictions of electoral victory difficult for analysts.
With the exception of Kwankwaso, the standard bearers of APC, PDP and LP launched their campaigns in the state between October and December 2022. For now, the NNPP and its flag bearer are relatively unknown in the state.
All notable politicians in the state have already pitched their tents with Tinubu, Atiku and Obi. For instance, the entire APC structures in the state are for Tinubu with Governor Simon Lalong as Director-General of the Tinubu/Shettima Presidential Campaign Council (PCC).
This implies that all Lalong’s cabinet members, the state legislature, 17 LGA chairmen, councilors, ward party chairmen, two senators and six House of Representatives members are all working for the success of theTinubu/Shettima ticket.
That the entire state APC political structures are presumably for Tinubu does not deprive other candidates of support in the state. Atiku, for instance, has formidable forces working for him. Those with him include elder statesman Ambassador Yahaya Kwande, a former member of the House of Representatives, Hon. Suleiman Yahaya Kwande, a former Minister of State for Information and Culture, Alhaji Salisu Ibrahim Nakande, some former members of the House of Representatives like Hon. Timothy Golu, Hon. Johnbull Shekerau, the current House of Representatives member from Mangu/Bokkos Federal Constituency, Hon. Solomon Maren and the incumbent Senator representing Plateau North, Senator Istifanus Gyang.
Also working for the former Vice President is Senator Jeremiah Husseni and his team of supporters. Another strong pillar in his campaign is a philanthropist Chief Kefas Wungak, who is Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Kefiano Autous and Kefiano Global Foundation. From the way things are, it is safe to say that the Plateau PDP structure is for Atiku.
Comparatively, the standard-bearer of the Labour Party, Mr. Peter Obi may not have robust structures like APC and PDP, but his support base in the state looks impressive. The governorship candidate of LP in Plateau State, Dr. Patrick Dakum and his running mate Edward Pwajok (SAN) are both grassroots politicians who have all it takes to woo youths to vote for LP. Besides Dakum, it was learnt that the major force behind Obi and Labour Party is former Governor Joshua Dariye. This factor cannot be dismissed because Dakum came from Dariye’s political camp having served as Commissioner for Health, and Information in his administration between 1999 and 2007. For certain, the political influence of Dariye cuts across the 17 Local Government Areas (LGAs) and it has been a major headache for the incumbent governor.
This explains why Lalong and Dariye are not in the same political camp in the state. Both are determined to use the 2023 general elections to prove their superiority over the other.
But what has endeared the people of the state to Dariye was his philanthropic nature when he ruled as a governor. He is seen as a giver, and Lalong was one of his boys until he became governor.
There is also Jonah Jang, a former governor of the state who is in the Nyesom Wike camp that is opposed to Atiku.
Apart from Dariye’s impact, the minority factor will boost Obi’s chances in the state.
Plateau has a voting population of 2.8 million going by the recent figure of voters released by INEC. Though substantial copies of PVCs are yet to be collected by their owners, the distribution exercise is ongoing.
If the previous voting pattern of the state in general elections is anything to go by, PDP has never lost any presidential election since 1999. Even in 2015 when APC won the governorship election, it lost the presidential poll to PDP. The same thing happened in 2019. But how it works out in 2023 is a litmus test.
In summary, Tinubu, Atiku and Obi are in a serious battle for the soul of Plateau. The party that will garner the highest votes cannot be predicted. The three leading parties have almost equal chances of winning.
A top source said: “What is seen as the strong point of LP is the religious sentiment which is expected to play out. Also, youths who have been angling for a change which they see in Obi. If they vote for him, Atiku’s base may be seriously affected.
“The strength of LP is rooted in the northern zone of the state where there is bulk of the votes. In Jos South alone, there are over 210,000 voters and in Jos North, there are over 300,000 voters for the February presidential elections.”
Tinubu may do well if APC concentrates on Jos North, part of Jos South, Wase, Kanam, part of Shendam, home town of Lalong who is also the Senatorial candidate of the APC in the said elections.”
What should also be borne in mind is that Obi and Atiku would compete from the same traditional support base, whereas the APC strongholds remain relatively intact. In 2015, many Christians were believed to have voted against Buhari. They voted for then President Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian. In 2019, they shifted support to Atiku. Now, there is Obi, who is subtly waving the religious card. Will those who voted for Jonathan give Obi their votes?
VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND
BAUCHI STATE
REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,801,512
2011 ELECTION RESULT
PDP: 258,404; CPC: 1,315,209;
ACN: 4,392; ANPP 1,455
2015 ELECTION RESULT
PDP: 86,085; APC: 931,598
2019 ELECTION RESULT
PDP: 209,313; APC: 798,428
Fierce battle between Tinubu, Atiku
Both PDP and APC are popular in Bauchi but that cannot be said of the LP and NNPP. The first two parties control large parts of the state.
But APC has always enjoyed the goodwill of the people at presidential level. This was quite evident in 2015 when President Muhammadu Buhari defeated the then-PDP candidate, former Goodluck Jonathan by over one million votes.
Similarly, in the 2019 elections, Buhari defeated Atiku of PDP by a wide margin despite the ex-VP’s popularity in the Northeast. The PDP, however, went on to win the governorship election due to protest votes by some APC members against their candidate.
If the results of previous polls are anything to go by, APC stands a better chance. In 2015 Buhari defeated Jonathan by over a million vote margin in the state.
Similarly, in 2019, he polled 798,428 votes to beat Atiku who got 209,313 votes. Buhari won in 19 out of 20 local government areas of the state.
Atiku won in Bogoro, the local government area where former House of Representatives Speaker, Yakubu Dogara, comes from, getting 23,664 votes while Buhari got 5,284 votes.
APC
The bigwigs expected to deliver Bauchi for APC are the Minister of Education, Mallam Adamu Adamu, who is leader of the party in the state. He hails from Katagum Local Government Area and his influence is unmatched.
Another key player is Sadique Abubakar, the party’s gubernatorial candidate and Presidential Campaign Council coordinator for the state who hails from Katagum.
Others mobilizing support for APC are a former governor of the state, Mallam Isa Yuguda, a former state chairman of the party, Uba Nana and a former National Commissioner at the Federal Character Commission (FCC), Yerima Giade. The rest are the APC state party chairman, Alhaji Babayo Misau, a former presidential aide Ya’u Darazo, a former Speaker of the Bauchi House of Assembly, Ayah Mi’a, Dr. Musa Babayo, and the current Comptroller-General of the Nigerian Customs Service. Col. Hameed Ibrahim Ali,
According to an APC chieftain in the state, Comrade Sabo Mohammed, there is a consensus among critical stakeholders in the state to massively support Tinubu. He said: “Supporting Tinubu is payback because he has supported one of our sons Buhari to emerge as president. Because of that singular act, the likes of Mallam Adamu Adamu, Hammed Ibrahim Ali, and Sadique Abubakar have been complementing the efforts of the Presidential Campaign Council because we believe Tinubu has what it takes to take Nigeria to the next level”
PDP
The disunity in the state chapter of PDP may affect Atiku’s chances at the presidential poll.
Analysts believe even in Bauchi South Senatorial District, which covers the local government areas of Alkaleri, Bauchi, Bogoro, Dass, Kirfi, Tafawa Balewa, and Toro, the party will face stiff opposition.
It’s believed that the incumbency factor, with PDP, the ruling party in the state enjoys, won’t play a major role this time around because Governor Mohammed who hails from Alkaleri LGA, may not throw his weight behind Atiku in the zone. He had lamented that certain forces within the PDP, including Atiku, were bent on frustrating his second-term ambition.
The suspension of an elder statesman in the state, Alhaji Muhammad Bello Kirfi, as Wazirin Bauchi by the Emirate Council for allegedly ‘disrespecting’ the governor suggests that all is not well in the party. The fate of Kirfi, an ally of Atiku, may also not be unconnected with the governor’s feud with the former VP.
Atiku may have to rely on the influence of Dogara ; a former PDP national chairman, Alhaji Ahmadu Mu’azu, Kirfi, and Sen. Ahmed Abdul Ningi, to pull votes for him.
He will take advantage of Dogara’s stance on the APC’s same-faith presidential ticket. Unfortunately, the ex-Speaker only controls Bogoro local government, out of the seven local governments, including Tafawa Balewa, Dass in the district.
But even in his predominantly Christian community, there are grassroots supporters of Tinubu’s ticket.
It would be recalled that hundreds of constituents of the former Speaker recently declared their support for the presidential candidate of the APC. They said religion should not be a factor in the election.
The supporters, under the umbrella of “Bogoro, Dass, and Tafawa Balewa Christian Support Group for APC,” said they rallied to tell their presidential candidate and the party that they would go house-to-house to mobilize support ahead of the general elections.
Hence, it won’t be an easy ride for Atiku due to the failure of the party to present a united front.
The popularity of Atiku’s godson Ningi won’t be enough to deliver the state for the former Vice-President.
The Bauchi Central Senatorial District covers the local government areas of Damban, Darazo, Ganjuwa, Misau, Ningi, and Warji. APC appears to be currently divided in the district following the defection of the senator representing the zone, Jika Dauda Halliru, who is now contesting for the governorship race under NNPP. It’s believed that PDP has an edge over APC in the district.
VERDICT: TINUBU HAS THE MOMENTUM
BENUE STATE
REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,782,302
2015 ELECTION RESULT
PDP: 303,737; APC: 373,961
2019 ELECTION RESULT
PDP: 355,355; APC: 347,668
Benue State is likely to be a battleground for votes in the North-Central. It’s fight-to-the finish in the sense that the political actors, who have been on the scene for years are the same, but this time around in different political platforms. It is expected that they would do everything to outwit one another.
The PDP, which is the ruling party in the state, has nine House of Representatives members out of 11, three senators, 26 House of Assembly members out of 30, 23 Local Government Area chairmen – including elected councillors in the 276 wards in the state.
It also boasts of notable politicians who command large following at the state and council levels. Some of these heavyweights are Sen. Gabriel Suswam, who was the immediate governor, Sen. Patrick Abba Moro (a former Minister of Interior) and Sen. Oker Jev, who is from Benue North West Senatorial zone.
On paper, one can easily conclude that PDP will win the 2023 general election at all levels in the state.
However, the party seems to be in a serious crisis. Things have fallen apart. The biggest threat to its existence before and after the 2023 general elections is the protracted crisis between the G- 5 governors and the party’s national chairman, Dr. Iyorchia Ayu. Benue State Governor, Samuel Ortom, is an active member of the rebellious group. Ortom has continued to call for the resignation of Ayu. This position has divided the party in the state.
As it stands, PDP governorship candidate, Hon. Titus Uba, cannot mention the name of the presidential candidate of the party during campaigns so as not to hurt the governor.
However, Atiku and Ayu are not leaving anything to chance as they have also mobilized their own supporters for the elections.
The combination of Suswam, Moro and Jev is behind the ex-VP, but since the leader of PDP in the state is the governor, who obviously has the yams and knives, it is difficult to predict the outcome because the party is an opposition unto itself.
Suswam, has declared his support for Atiku openly, and his supporters are campaigning for the Turaki Adamawa. But he insists this has not affected his relationship with Ortom. Many don’t believe him; they argue he’s just buying time as the two would soon fall apart.
This is despite the continued assurance by Ortom that PDP will win all elections from bottom to top. Unless there is reconciliation, Atiku may not do as much as he did in 2019.
APC
APC looks good to give the ruling PDP a run for its money in the state. Fr. Hycinth Alia, who is the governorship candidate, is the rave of the moment and he is enjoying massive followership .With the enthusiastic backing for him in urban and rural areas, pundits have concluded that PDP is gone and APC is coming in the state.
Many claim Alia will win big because the PDP administration is owing teachers, pensioners and civil servants etc. Since Ortom is serving out his two terms, they argue the electorate should be allowed to choose a candidate and party to liberate the state from the harsh economic situation.
In this light, they view Tinubu and APC as best for the state. For Benue, the last ballot will decide.
THE THREE MUSKETEERS, THE CHURCH AND FARMERS-HERDERS CRISIS AS FACTORS
DAVID MARK
After his tenure as Senator representing Benue South Senatorial zone, David Mark, has maintained silence over issues affecting PDP in his home state.
Many expect that as a key member of the party who was Senate President, David should speak on issues affecting the party.
But he hardly comments – even in his Otukpo Local Government Area. It is difficult to read his mindset or interest. In Benue politics one can hardly point out who Mark supports for elective positions.
He is not known for openly canvassing support for candidates or endorsing any. However, he has foot soldiers who work behind the scene to get whatever he wants in PDP. He is always consulted on any important decision. In this way pressure is taken off him.
BARNABAS GEMADE
Though he is a member of APC, the two-term senator is on collision course with the state chapter of the party, over his decision to go to court after the congresses that produced Alia as governorship candidate.
Gemade, unlike Mark, is outspoken, especially when he feels things are wrong or a wrong decision has been taken
His strength is that he commands a lot of followership in APC in the three senatorial zones. This massive following is regarded as an asset to the party in its quest to take over from PDP.
While Gemade is still in court, he is a member of APC PCC.This is a clear indication that he has been recognized by the party at the national level.
What many people consider his weak point is his inability to act swiftly. Gemade takes his time before acting or taking a decision, which his supporters interpret to mean he is slow.
GEORGE AKUME
As a former governor of Benue and senator, Akume is the undisputable leader of APC in the state. He singlehandedly sent PDP packing from Government House, Makurdi in 2015.
But many party supporters say he doesn’t act quickly when it comes to decision-making. They allege he trusts mediocre people with appointments and they turn around to undermine his authority or betray him.
However, his strength is that he is a cheerful giver and this has endeared him to many people. Another of his strengths is that he commands cult following. Even those who stand elections on different platforms also consult him because he is regarded not as just the leader of Benue APC, but of the entire state.
Akume is very simple and it doesn’t take much protocol to see him.
THE CHURCH
The church is already playing a big role in the build up to the elections. It is getting involved in partisan politics by way of inviting candidates. So far most of the campaigns are done in churches through thanksgiving. Thereafter, reception is organized for the candidate. At the venue is where the real politicking takes place.
The emergence of a priest as candidate of one of the leading parties is clear indication of how frontal religion is as a factor.
FARMERS – HERDERS CRISIS
Another factor that has dominated campaigns is the farmers-herders crisis and the issue of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). All the political parties are using it to canvass for votes.
For example, Obi visited IDPs in Benue on Christmas Day and assured them that when elected he would ensure that they return to their ancestral homes. He used the occasion to seek for votes for his party. All parties and candidates are doing the same thing. If, as it is being speculated, Ortom backs Obi, Atiku would have a huge chunk of what should ordinarily be his sliced off, with the LP candidate as beneficiary. In spite of the spirited campaign against Buhari in 2019 due to rampant killing of farmers in the state by herdsmen, the APC and PDP ran neck – and – neck. With Ortom and his supporters determined to work against Atiku, APC’s Tinubu may have the upper hand, come February 25.
VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND. TINUBU, ATIKU, OBI IN BATTLE ROYALE
KADUNA STATE
REGISTERED VOTERS: 4,345,469
2015 ELECTION RESULT
PDP: 484,085; APC: 1,127,760
2019 ELECTION RESULT
PDP: 649,612; APC: 993,445
In Kaduna State, the February 25 presidential election will be a great departure from the previous polls. The 2011 race was between the then incumbent President Jonathan of PDP, Buhari of CPC and Nuhu Ribadu of ACN. In 2015, it was again between Jonathan and Buhari, while in 2019, it was a contest between Buhari and Atiku.
In the three previous elections, Buhari won in the state. He defeated Jonathan in 2011 with a total votes of 1,334,244, as against the incumbent President’s 1,190,179. But Buhari lost the election at the national level. In the return match in 2015, Buhari now under the platform of the APC won Kaduna with 1, 127,760 to defeat Jonathan who polled 484,085 votes.
As the incumbent in 2019, Buhari defeated Atiku after scoring 993,445 votes against his 649,612 votes. He took 15 of the state’s 23 local government areas, leaving his opponent with the remaining eight.
How will Kaduna vote on February 25?
The factors that will make the big difference between the previous elections and the coming poll are the emergence and resurgence of the Kwankwaso-led NNPP, the Obi-led LP, and the exit of Buhari from the political scene.
What is bringing NNPP and LP into the discourse is the perceived number of followers they have gathered within the short period of their emergence.
Also, unlike the 2015 and 2019 elections, Buhari is not going to be on the ballot. This is another factor that may change the voting pattern in the forthcoming presidential poll. Though, he hails from Katsina, he has lived most of his life in Kaduna. He is not only loved, he is ‘worshipped’ by the people of the State. This explains the massive support he has enjoyed during the previous elections.
Meanwhile, Atiku who gave the beloved Buhari a good fight by securing 649,612 votes against his 993,445 in 2019, is still in the contest. He would be slugging it out with Tinubu, who is contesting the presidential race for the first time and actively backed by Buhari loyalists , among them the state governor, mallam Nasir El- Rufai who is immensely popular in Kaduna, the state capital and the Northern part of the state.
Kaduna’s voting strength
According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), of the 95 million registered voters for this year’s general elections, Kaduna State has the third highest number of voters. With its 4,345,469 registered voters, it is only queuing behind Lagos and Kano States, which have 7,075,192 and 5,927,565 registered voters respectively
In the 2019 general elections, the total number of registered voters in the state was 3,861,033. However, only 1,757,868 voters were accredited. The total votes cast in the polls was 1,709,005. The records showed monumental voter apathy because less than half of the total registered voters eventually participated in the election.
But, the question of whether next month’s presidential election will record similar poor level of voter turnout, is dependent on the level of awareness and mobilization by the electoral body and the parties.
Visibility of major parties
The youngest and smallest of the ‘big four’ parties in Kaduna State is Kwankwaso’s NNPP. The new party lacks strong structure. Its presence revolves around its leader and presidential candidate. The party in the state also appears to be all about its governorship candidate, Senator Suleiman Uthman Hunkuyi.
As young as it is, the party is already battling its own internal crisis. Its state chairman, Ben Kure, was recently removed on allegation of anti-party activities, though, he hurriedly addressed a press conference, where he announced his resignation as leader and quit the party. Kure, who was a member of the ruling APC and former Political Adviser to Governor El-Rufai, said Hunkuyi was not serious about the 2023 election and was holding the party to ransom.
Although LP is gaining popularity in Southern Kaduna and part of the capital, it is not immune to structural crisis. It is factionalized. One wing is chaired by Peter Hassan but the party’s governorship candidate, Hon. Jonathan Asake aligns with Auwal Tafoki’s faction.
Both NNPP and Labour Party may be showing promise elsewhere, but the reality is that they both lack the capacity to win in Kaduna. Their existence is, however, capable of causing serious issues for the mega parties in the zones of the state where the big ones hitherto called the shots.
In Kaduna North and Kaduna Central Senatorial zones, NNPP will get some votes to deplete the figures of the ruling APC and the major opposition PDP. Kaduna South Senatorial Zone on the other hand, is the area of the state where LP has been able to make significant inroads. It is most likely going to get its major votes from this zone, which had since 1999 become the traditional stronghold of the PDP.
The ruling APC and PDP are both strong in the state. The latter ruled for 16 years straight from 1999 to 2015, producing ministers, senators, commissioners and majority of the federal and state lawmakers. The army of political giants that have been produced by the PDP in the state over the years, makes its structure a strong one.
The state chapter of the party has within 16 years of its reign produced a Vice President and national chairman of PDP among other prominent political juggernauts. This makes the party well positioned for the general elections. However, internal wrangling may rob it of its chances at the February presidential poll.
The ruling APC has been in power in Kaduna State since 2015. It has not produced as many prominent politicians as the PDP but it has mastered the game of politics. The party is very strategic; it knows where the votes are and how to get them to its side.
How the presidential candidates stand
TINUBU
For the APC candidate Tinubu, the incumbency factor at state level will be to his advantage. Governor El-Rufai is one of the leading voices among the Northern governors who believe the presidency should go to the South in 2023 in the interest of national unity and stability. The governor will do his best to ensure his victory.
Other key players like the APC governorship candidate, Senator Uba Sani and the senatorial candidates: Muhammad Sani Abdullahi popularly known as Datijjo, Senator Suleiman Abdu Kwari and Bulus Audu, are aware that the victory of their presidential candidate is a major determinant of their own victory. They will do everything possible to deliver Kaduna for Tinubu.
Generally, Tinubu enjoys huge support from the elite, especially those presently in government and majority of the Kaduna electorate who believe in the APC government.
ATIKU
The PDP presidential candidate is not contesting the presidential poll for the first time. He is going to enjoy the support of some gladiators who are from the state – people like the former Vice President Namadi Sambo, former governors Ahmed Markafi and Ramalan Yero.
There is no doubt that the former Vice President is also popular in Kaduna. In 2019 he polled 649,612 votes against Buhari’s 993,445 votes. PDP will, however, record split votes in Southern Kaduna because of Labour Party – the new darling of the zone.
The major weakness of Atiku in Kaduna Central is the crisis rocking the party over the senatorial primary. As at now, the question of who is the Kaduna Central PDP candidate is yet to be answered because of the legal battle between the two prominent contenders for the ticket.
The 2019 candidate, Lawal Adamu Usman, won the party’s ticket, but his victory was challenged by the first runner up, Usman Ibrahim, on the ground of over voting. Ibrahim’s prayer was granted by the Federal High Court sitting in Kaduna, which ordered a rerun. The party organized the rerun and Ibrahim won, while Lawal who headed to the Appeal Court to contest the lower court’s ruling has also won at the higher court.
OBI
The presidential candidate of the Labour Party has gained some momentum in Southern Kaduna and parts of the metropolis. He will record a good number of votes from this area to come distant third in the presidential poll.
KWANKWASO
The presidential candidate of NNPP has made considerable inroads in key Northwest states, especially in Kano where he hails from and the neighbouring Jigawa State. In Kaduna, he will have pockets of votes in Kaduna North and Kaduna Central but he won’t make any significant impact considering the fact that his governorship candidate who is the face of the party is not on ground.
Looking at the state of the political parties, the presidential candidates themselves, those rooting for them and the permutations on ground, a tight presidential race lies ahead between APC and PDP, with the ruling party’s Tinubu having an edge.
VERDICT: APC FAVOURED
GOMBE STATE
REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,394,393
2015 ELECTION RESULT
PDP: 96,873; APC: 361,245
2019 ELECTION RESULT
PDP: 138,484; APC: 403,961
In 2019, APC’s Buhari won the election in Gombe State after polling 403,961 votes out of 580,649 total votes cast in the state.
Until then, Gombe was a PDP stronghold under former Governor Hassan Dankwambo who had completed two terms in office. He succeeded his godfather, Senator Danjuma Goje, who also spent two terms as governor before leaving office in 2011.
However, the game changer for the 2019 election in Gombe was no one else but Goje, the senator representing Gombe Central at the National Assembly who decamped to APC and single-handedly toured the 114 wards with the APC candidate, now the governor of the state, Muhammadu Inuwa Yahaya.
The 2019 election was a terrible defeat for PDP as Dankwambo could not even win his senatorial bid for Gombe North as an incumbent.
However, the question today is can the APC repeat the landslide victory it won in 2019 at the 2023 presidential election?
Unlike four years ago, the political landscape in the state today is a completely different ball game with three strong parties – APC, PDP and NNPP – and the less visible Labour Party, hustling for the over 1.5 million votes in the state.
In the ruling APC, Governor Yahaya is consolidating his hold on the state as the leader of the party. Lately, the party had battled with internal strife between him and his former boss and godfather Goje, but it was amicably resolved with the latter receiving his Gombe Central senatorial ticket for the fourth term in the Senate.
However, unlike 2019, Goje has not been actively involved in party activities in the state giving a semblance that all may still not be well between the governor and his estranged godfather.
Nevertheless, APC has remained strong as a party to beat in the state, cashing in on the crisis rocking the main opposition party PDP in the state.
The chief anchor for the APC presidential campaign in the state is Malam Abubakar Inuwa Kari who also doubles as Chief of Staff to Governor Yahaya. He is a known grassroots politician and a strong ally of Tinubu. He is the Director of Contact Mobilization for Tinubu/Shettima in the Northeast with Yahaya as the APC Presidential Campaign (PCC) Coordinator for the zone.
The PDP was, prior to the gubernatorial primary, a major threat to the ruling APC in the state. But after the primary election, things fell apart in the party with a leading gubernatorial aspirant, Jamilu Gwamna jettisoning the party to become the campaign coordinator for APC. Jamilu ‘s exit was a big blow to the party having just donated his campaign office to the PDP presidential candidate Atiku.
Kari while speaking with The Nation newspaper recently said there was no doubt that APC was the party to beat in Gombe and in the Northeast.
“Our governors took a decision that power must shift to the south and the most honourable thing a Northerner will do is to vote for someone from the South. For the candidates, you have no basis for comparison. Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the man to beat,” he said.
The PDP candidate, Jibrin Barde and the party leader in the state, former Governor Dankwambo are the anchor men for the PDP but neither of them is taken serious as far as the 2023 presidential election is concerned in Gombe. Both Dankwambo and Barde had been supporters of the PDP G5 Governor’s before making a U-turn recently to throw their weight behind Atiku when he came for the presidential campaign in Gombe.
Over two months after campaign officially began, there has been no significant or serious campaign moves by the PDP, rather the party has been battling with internal wrangling which had forced hundreds of party faithful to find protective abode in other parties.
Indeed, the PDP in Gombe today is not enjoying the best of support. It does not demonstrate the strength and determination to win any election in the state. Though it was earlier in 2022 touted to be a possible replacement for the ruling APC, but that hope has been dashed by irreconcilable differences within the party.
Former Publicity Secretary of the party, Mr. Muritala Usman Kumo blamed the state of the PDP in Gombe on the inability of its gubernatorial candidate to embrace and accommodate other aspirants who lost to him in the primary.
Muritala said currently the APC presidential candidate Tinubu will be able to scale through a certain threshold of votes in the state with ease.
“There is a percentage of votes that we do not want APC to get in Gombe, I mean the 25 percent of votes cast. Before this crisis in the PDP, we were sure that the APC presidential candidate could not get even 10 percent in the state but now I don’t think so with the way things are falling apart and people are living the party every day,” he said.
NNPP is perhaps the biggest beneficiary of the PDP crisis in Gombe. Towards the end of last year till the moment, it has suddenly become the new bride and a possible alternative to APC in Gombe State.
Led by Hon. Khamis Ahmed Mailantarki, it has been waxing stronger with defections to the party from both the APC and PDP. Mailantarki was a former and only CPC member of the House of Representatives representing Gombe/Kwami/Funakaye between 2011 and 2015. He made history in 2011 when he emerged as the only legislator from the North-East with the highest number of votes and was the deputy chairman of the House Committee on FCT.
Today in Gombe, Mailantarki is said to be secretly enjoying the support of the Presidency through his closeness to Buhari as the only CPC member of the Federal House of Representatives then.
Mailantarki is giving a lot of boost to the presidential hope of NNPP candidate Kwankwaso who was hitherto considered an underdog in Gombe politics. NNPP has also grown from a push over to a leading opposition and a major threat to the ruling APC. Although it has remained very quiet and peaceful in its campaign, it has continued to be subject to attacks by other parties that see it as a threat to their ambition.
There may not be a landslide victory for any of the four most visible political parties in Gombe State in 2023 presidential election unlike what happened in 2019. Atiku will still enjoy the sympathy of some of the electorate as a Northeast leader while Tinubu will benefit from the power of incumbency of APC and its structures statewide.
NNPP will, of course, shake the table, but the biggest surprise might come from LP which although has no gubernatorial candidate nor any visible anchorman for the state, yet enjoys a good followership among Christians in the state. It was believed that if religion plays a role in the 2023 presidential election, then the party might put in a respectable performance in Gombe.
VERDICT: LEANING APC
BORNO STATE
REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,514,228
2015 ELECTION RESULT
PDP: 25,640; APC: 473,543
2019 ELECTION RESULT
PDP: 71,788; APC: 836,496
From the First Republic to the Fourth Republic, Borno State has always been a progressive enclave. Its politics is as predictable as its valiant heroes of the old Kanem-Bornu Empire. It is rather of radical shape or of idealistic conservative slant. The outcome of presidential election in Borno has been consistent and reflective of the political leaning of the people of the state in the last 23 years.
In 2015, out of 515,008 registered voters, APC garnered 473, 543 compared to PDP’s 25,640. It was also a gallant outing for APC in 2019 when its candidate Buhari polled 836,496 votes to beat Atiku who scored 71,788 votes. The performance of PDP had been abysmal in the state.
With the Boko Haram “war” almost won by Buhari, the emergence of APC Vice Presidential candidate, Sen. Kashim Shettima from the state and the outstanding performance of Governor Babagana Zulum, a landslide is expected in February. The breeze of victory is already ravaging Borno mountains, hills and desert.
The last time the state was close to the presidency was on June 12, 1993 when, Ambassador Babagana Kingibe was the Vice Presidential candidate to the late business mogul, Chief M.K.O. Abiola.
In spite of some grumblings about the style of Governor Babagana Umara Zulum, many people believe that APC is still the party to beat in the state. The governor has reversed his high stake style to relate better with politicians after being challenged at various times by political stars in the state.
The appointment of the 27 caretaker chairmen recently inaugurated in the state was seen by observers as a wise move by the governor to persuade some of the state’s disgruntled politicians to join forces with him. The list of appointees included the faces of seasoned politicians from the state, which many people are familiar with.
Zulum has consistently said he has rebuilt more churches in the Southern part of the state that were destroyed by Boko Haram insurgents more than ever in the history of the state. This could be a strategy to also counter the perceived marginalization of the Christian population. He has also consistently spent his Christmas with the people since he was elected as governor in 2019.
His over 500 projects which he rolled out in the state in the last four years are also selling points for APC in the state and he has never shied away from drumming these into his people’s ears.
A staunch supporter of the APC in Borno State, Mohammed Abubakar, also known in Maiduguri as Gambo Okocha, the Sarkin Yaki Zulum, is optimistic that APC will win by landslide.
According to him, it is a waste of time for any other political party to raise its head in Borno for any election because it is all about Tinubu, Shettima, and all other APC seats.
He went on to say that APC will get more than the 25% of the votes required by law at the state level to win the presidential election. He said Borno’s overwhelming support for the APC will be a show of gratitude for what Buhari’s Federal Government has done for the state since its inception.
“In Borno State, the presidential election is not a contest between any political party and the APC. Because of what the APC Government has done for the people of the State, it’s a done deal for the APC. The story is clear because even the blind can sense the presence of the APC in Borno State.
“Since the dawn of democracy in Nigeria, Borno State has not had the kind of opportunities that it now has under the APC Federal Government led by President Muhammadu Buhari. To name a few, we have the Chief of Army Staff and the National Security Adviser in Borno State. Borno has held other high-profile positions in this government, and today, we have the Vice Presidential Candidate of the party. What else can Borno say but to support Bola Ahmed Tinubu to win and continue with the love President Buhari has shown us?
“It is also the first time in the state’s history that the President has visited Borno seven times. This is a massive display of affection. “This government has addressed the insecurity that Boko Haram almost took over our state, but today we can freely move to those areas that Boko Haram took over,” he said.
Okocha responded to critics of Shettima by saying: “Any person that points a finger at Sen. Kashim that he did not do well for Borno clearly shows that such a person is not in Maiduguri or he is not living in Borno State. Kashim set Borno State on the path of development despite the Boko Haram challenges during his administration.
“During his time as governor, he did not show tribalism and religious bias. At Christmas and Sallah, he lavished love on everyone.
While the APC is banking on the power of incumbency, the NNPP is hoping to overthrow the APC through the philanthropy of its candidate Kwankwaso.
According to Sabiu Commander NASCO, the people of Borno State, particularly women, are waiting to repay Kwankwaso for the largest philanthropic intervention in the state’s history during the Boko Haram crisis.
According to him, the former Kano governor took over 500 children out of Maiduguri during the height of the Boko Haram crisis and provided them with scholarships from primary school to university level.
“This is an undeniable fact that everyone can see. During the Boko Haram insurgency, no individual, I mean a Borno state indigene, has assisted 50 people with their education.
“Because of what he has done, the Association of Women in Borno State is just waiting for election day to move and vote for Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso as their next president.
“He has done the same for the people of Yobe in places such as Potiskum, Nguru, Gashua, the home of Nigeria’s Senate President, Dr. Ahmed Lawan. More than 70 Yobe students are on Kwankwaso scholarship.
“Rabiu Kwankwaso is beloved by the people of Borno and Yobe, and he will receive more than 25% of the votes cast in the two states and become our president, In Sha Allahu,” he predicted.
The PDP’s fortunes in Borno have plummeted since 2011, but you can only underestimate the party’s performance in the 2023 election at your peril, especially since Atiku is the party’s presidential candidate.
A factor that has raised the PDP’s hope in Borno State is the emergence of the young Jajari as the party’s gubernatorial candidate. His arrival has sparked some glimmer of renewed energy, particularly among the youths in the state’s Maiduguri Metropolitan Council (MMC) and Jere Local Government Area.
PDP supporters over time in the state have faced serial betrayals from party elders, who usually end up compromising with the ruling party. The arrival of Jajari from outside the circle has provided the party with new life.
Another factor contributing to the current PDP’s strength in Borno State is the widespread dissatisfaction caused by the state’s primary elections, in which the ruling party is alleged to have imposed candidates on the people. Borno North is another critical factor that will benefit the ruling APC in the presidential election. This is because, with the exception of Kaga Local Government, which is located along the Damaturu/Maiduguri road, the majority of the votes will be cast from IDP camps.
This suggests that the areas with insecurity will be difficult for the opposition parties to penetrate, especially the IDPs camps.
“The entire Borno North will have their elections mostly in the IDP Camps,” a humanitarian worker who did not want to be quoted said.
He added: “That means there is insecurity challenge. So the ability of the opposition to penetrate some of these local government areas is minimal and that may consequently affect their votes and it will be a massive gain for the ruling party which has the full machinery of reaching out to the population”.
VERDICT: APC TO WIN COMFORTABLY
