Category: Milestone

  • 2023: Cross River and the batlle for zoning

    2023: Cross River and the batlle for zoning

    The 2023 political process began in earnest on Friday, 25 February 2022 with the signing into law of the amended Electoral Act by  President Muhammadu Buhari. The newly amended act is revolutionary because it allows for more independence by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). For instance, on the issue of electronic transmission of results, the Act leaves that to the discretion of INEC.  Section 50 (2) prescribes that: “Subject to Section 63 of this Act, voting at an election and transmission of results under this Act shall be in accordance with the procedure determined by the commission.”

    The body language of the commission indicates that such transmission shall by electronic means. In a position paper it issued on the matter, INEC said: “The answer to the question of the desirability of electronic transmission of election results in Nigeria today may be summed up in three words – trust, efficiency and safety.” The reason for this is not far-fetched. Results even though well carried out at the polling stage have been known to have been manipulated at the collation stage even when there is adequate documentation of the electoral process.

    But most worthy of note in the new electoral act is a section which President Buhari had contended with, which had caused him to return a previous version of the electoral act for further deliberation. That section is Section 84 (2) which previously restricted the selection of aspirants by political parties to direct primaries. As is evident with the colour of the recently concluded All Progressives Congress (APC) convention, the president’s predisposition is toward selecting aspirants by parties through consensus. This bias was now written into the clause which now read: “The procedure for the nomination of candidates by political parties for the various elective positions shall be by direct, indirect primaries or consensus.” While consensus is arguably the most peaceful way of running party selections in such a volatile clime as ours, it removes the democratic element where each person’s vote matters. But then, it can be argued that true democracy cannot be attained in one fell swoop.

    Again, while consensus may work in the APC, where, because of the element of incumbency, might is right, such an arrangement is bound to fall flat within the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which is more prone to a rigorous, more free-for-all style of selection; more so, in Cross River State, which is anybody’s game going forward. Or is it?

    Cross River State’s situation is interesting. There has been a laborious debate about which zone should produce the next governor. This debate is across both parties. The incumbent, Senator Benedict Ayade, is rounding off his administration, having almost completed his two terms. He belongs to the APC and is a strong advocate for power to go to the south. Because of his firm grip on the party, this may just be the way that things may go for APC, even though it has been gathered that some stalwarts in the Central Senatorial District want to tip the apple cart by coming out to declare. Only time would tell.

    In the Cross River State PDP, there is a freer disposition of aspirators. Long before the official bell was sounded, candidates from Central Senatorial District had declared their intention to vie for the gubernatorial seat. This produced some discomfort within the southern caucus of the party, which, citing a previous agreement, averred that the next governor should indeed come from the south. Many meetings had been held to resolve this imbroglio to no end. In the end, it has been implicitly accepted that the race is open to any aspirant, no matter the geographical base.

    The race within the APC seems to be a three-way race. From a dipstick poll, it is evident that the front-runners are Senator Bassey Otu, Arc. Bassey Ndem and Asuquo Ekpenyong, present Commissioner for Finance. There is Ben Akak, a dark horse who may spring some surprise. It is possible that given the national flavour of the APC, the eventual CRS gubernatorial candidate from the party will be thrown up by a consensus arrangement.

    The race in the PDP is more rigorous with Senator Gershom Bassey leading the pack, closely marked by Senator Sandy Onor, and Dan Asuquo (popularly known as DanSuki) coming as a third option. The selection is bound to be Indirect Primaries. Here, delegates to the State Congress of the party where the primaries will be carried out would be selected at the Ward Congress level. The selection process is rigorous but democratic.

    What are the permutations for the election of the eventual Cross River State governor in 2023? Let us bear in mind that despite his defection to the APC, Cross River State is still a PDP state, the events of the last by-elections in the north, notwithstanding. So, it can be surmised that the race is clearly between Ayade and the PDP. On their own, the APC aspirants lack the individual clout to upset the juggernauts in the PDP. That is a fact.

    Senator Bassey Otu was defeated twice in 2015 and 2019 by Senator Gershom Bassey, who is the current senator representing the Southern Senatorial District. It is doubtful if Otu can overturn the series of defeats now that he has weakened his southern base by going to APC. In a two-way race, Gershom Bassey will take Central Senatorial District. Because of the Ayade factor in the North, Otu will be fortunate there. Gershom Bassey of PDP will ultimately be the winner.

    But against, Sandy Onor, Otu will be luckier. He will take the South and the North and lose the Central. It will be an electoral skirmish, but Otu does have the chance to be the next Cross River State governor here.

    A two-way race between Otu and DanSuki will see a dog fight in the South – a possible 50-50. Otu may take Central and the North. Otu will be the winner against a DanSuki.

    Bassey Ndem, a brilliant architect and entrepreneur, is new to the political field. But against the candidates from the PDP, he will lose in all the senatorial districts except, perhaps, the North. In a two-way race against the PDP candidates, he does not stand a chance.

    Another neophyte, Asuquo Ekpenyong is the current Commissioner for Finance. He is touted as Ayade’s preferred candidate. He has yet to declare his aspirations but may emerge by consensus. By just like Ndem, he is bound to lose all the zones, except, perhaps, the North.

    The permutations against the APC candidates may cause Ayade to run a very aggressive political rally against the PDP. He has so much at stake. This is a battle for survival for him in a very personal way. A loss by APC will be a very great loss for him. It is only left to conjecture as to why he must fight the fight of his life. His situation is even more precarious, given the legal battle that he is embroiled in concerning his defection from the PDP.

    There is no gainsaying the fact that Senator Gershom Bassey is PDP’s best foot forward. A Bassey win is vital for the PDP to regain control of the affairs of Cross River State. But he faces a determined adversary, Senator Benedict Ayade. The election is Senator Gershom Bassey’s to lose.

     

    • Okpon is a businessman and a public affairs commentator and lives in Abuja

     

  • At 70 Tinubu remains refreshingly an enigmatic symbol!

    At 70 Tinubu remains refreshingly an enigmatic symbol!

    Once again especially at this time when the trumpet and sounds of electioneering have filled the air in Nigeria, the name Bola Ahmed Tinubu has dominated all facets of the nation’s media. Is that surprising to anybody? No! Not to a discerning mind who has followed the trajectory which this enigma has plotted for himself and after having carved it, marched with gusto and savvy into its curves both treacherous and sanguine. Year after year from 1999 to this moment, Asiwaju has become a constant factor in defining the outcomes of elections not just in Lagos state but also in Nigeria.

    Since I have come to know this phenomenon, I have realised that this is a man that is deliberate in all his ways doing nothing superfluously but with utmost caution and carefulness ensuring that it meshes into the whole vision which he has crafted for himself and the people that he has come to lead. Every step he takes has been methodical and fills a gap in his overall quest for the enthronement of continuous cycle of progress and prosperity within his sphere of influence.

    One could easily conclude that this is a man driven by the deep altruistic desire to confront the forces of communal decadence and social rot no matter what it may cost him personally. He is willing at all times to sacrifice himself for others and the society and this could be seen easily from the numerous battles he has fought throughout his journey thus far both as a budding leader and now as a national leader and opinion moulder in our great nation.

    His principles and idealism which could be anchored on this simple maxim of “Ubuntu” “I am because we are”. It is this understanding of the very unshakable African spirit that shapes the dynamics of his engagements with other stakeholders. He seeks to build the community; the people in it and the institutions and traditions that govern them believing that once the society is healthy; all elements within it will significantly be impacted positively and vice versa.

    If you are still looking for why he has built so many men who have gone on to become giants on their own since 1999, then, there lies your answer. The reason for building men all over the place is his belief that various people with diverse capacities in various places coalesces to build a better and stronger society. He simply builds men not for himself but for the society.

    That is why every year whenever we celebrate his birthday, it is no more a celebration of Bola Ahmed Tinubu but a celebration of the community. It is no longer personal or individualistic but a gathering of the people to lift up the ideals that have come to be encapsulated in one man. His birthday has become a founding by the society of the very ethos which would keep it making progress and it is a recognition of the embodiment of hope which is demonstrated in the life of one man.

    Some of us are products of Asiwaju’s pursuit for a better Nigeria through the empowerment of men and women peopling our communities. He goes out of his way to identify young talents no matter where they may be and encourages them to participate in nation building. I and many of my colleagues are products of this effort and this singular attribute separates him miles apart from most of the horde that constitutes the nation’s leadership spectrum. He gives others reason to serve while using himself as a vehicle for their participation not minding whether they are appreciative to him personally or not as long as they remain valuable and contributing towards national development.

    When you therefore hear him talk about the fact that “to be the President of Nigeria is my lifelong passion” few may not understand where that key statement comes from but to many of us that have come to be his acolytes, it resonates loudly. Why is that so? Simple, at his feet, he has taught us that we must seek at all times to lay a good foundation upon which a future that will be the envy of other nations is built. He states that it is only men and women with the right passion and vision occupy the position of power that a society may be truly empowered to forge a strong anchor upon which that desired progress may be built. No one is insignificant and as he opined, as long as God gives us life and as long as we still have the desired strength, he insists that we must present ourselves to serve as in it is founded the factors that would help us build better societies.

    That statement therefore speaks to his undying love for this nation; his quest to unleash his vision on the political space to make Nigeria a nation that all of us can be proud of and truly his passion to stop the rot in governance and enthrone egalitarianism in all spheres of national life. He understands that the power to make a difference in the lives of Nigerians is within his grasp thus he yearns for that opportunity to serve Nigerians and put a lie to the global belief that Africans cannot produce great leaders.

    The Jagaban Bogu is as fearless as he is humane. He never goes out of his way to court trouble but will not run away from one especially when he has restrained himself and sought all ways to seek rapprochement with the other party. I have seen him appease even those that publicly offended him drawing them closer to himself after forgiving of all their errors. He therefore does not expect all of us to be perfect but allows us those latitudes of occasional errors patiently teaching and redirecting our paths; that is how he has been able to build a team of highly dedicated but efficient men and women around himself.

    Some of us only truly have just pity for those who think they can blackmail him out of his drive to become the president of our great country. He does not need their noise, he does not need their din, he does not need their sycophancy neither does he need their feeble and weakened hands. He knows that the only support he needs he already has and that is the support of the almighty God whom he serves fervently and Nigerian masses scattered around the nation with whom he has built solid connection these past years. These are his core supporters and those that he truly needs.

    A man driven with deep convictions cannot be stopped easily. When such person is backed with the necessary zeal and capability, he becomes unassailable. When he combines them with the unending clamour and desires of the people, he becomes a phenomenon. Bola Ahmed Tinubu has transcended the ordinary in our nation’s political sphere. He has succeeded in creating a movement that is increasing by the day and does not seem to wane anytime soon.

    As the 29th of March 2022 approaches which marks the 70th birthday anniversary of this living legend, the Asiwaju continues to mesmerise and confound his critics while his traducers watch with fearful envy. He has bestridden our political space like a colossus mastering the nuances and dynamics of the ever unfolding drama that keeps marking the nation’s political terrain.

    His trailblazing instincts could be seen in his decision to announce his entrance into the contest for the 2023 Presidential election. He chose to do so at the Presidential villa. He chose to announce it to the man he wants to replace in 2023. That was a profound moment and very audacious despite all the envious protestations. This singular act galvanised and signposts the beginning of the race to 2023. Other contenders woke from their slumber to announce their already failed ambitions.

    With that act alone, he has shown leadership and humility. He shook the lethargy that had seemed to have engulfed the political space shaking off all the fetters and gyres that had hitherto held many of his opponent in its thrall. If that is not enough sign to others that they should give way to this natural leader to lead Nigeria in 2023 then I do not think these leaders are sensitive in spirit at all.

    AS we celebrate the 70th birthday of this enigma, let it be known that Asiwaju is not one of those seeking to be president based on what he is promising to do but he is presenting his scorecard for everybody to see. The testimonies of many people both celebrities and ordinary men and women on the streets bear witness to the fact that this is the man that is in the right position to lead our nation at this time. From Jay Jay Okocha to Nwankwo Kanu and Taribo West including various top actors and actresses in the entertainment industry, members of the clergy and Artisans all over the federation; the testimonies are overwhelming.

    We celebrate a man of 70yrs who despite his trials and tribulations has remained refreshingly and excitingly an enigma. When they thought that they had shut him out, he turned the table against them and when they had written him off, they saw his name boldly etched in their faces. This is one man you cannot wish away and this is one tree that has the capacity to make a forest. I think that those who have sworn to leave Nigeria if tinubu becomes President should already be planning which country they will retire to and those who wants to go to the farm had better purchased the acres of land and the machines needed for the project because Tinubu will retire them to their chosen places as he becomes President come 2023.

    The magnitude and depth of the celebration symbolises the unifying influence which he has become both to our great party the APC and Nigeria generally.  There is no other way to explain the outpouring of encomiums and widespread rejoicing and effusive praises to the almighty God for yet preserving him with good health so that he can continue serving his people.

    Participants in the celebrations have stated unequivocally their choice of leadership. They therefore saw in it the need to blow the beagle so that those who are still on the side-line can become part of it. The opportunity is therefore presented to all Nigerians to seize organise around the Asiwaju for the benefit of all. This is a man who has shown repeatedly that he is not in politics for self-aggrandizement but to push the cause of the down-trodden demonstrating in several ways that he is willing to become the sacrificial lamb for the progress of our nation.

    Spiritually inclined persons will always tell you that when God wants to cause a major change in any society, he sends a man! When he wants to begin something new in the life of a people, he chooses a man and when He wants to answer the prayers and listen to the cries of a people in the throes of angst and deprivation, he raises a man and sends him. Bola Ahmed Tinubu unequivocally may have been chosen by God at this time as an answer to our yearnings. The man Tinubu is the man sent by God to fulfil our dreams as a people and as a nation. That is why we celebrate his birthday with fervour.

    Perhaps, that is why God has kept him metamorphosing and very unpredictable to his opponents and those wishing to douse his God-given light. The pillar of cloud by the day and the pillar of fire by night confounded the enemies of God’s chosen ones. We can see God doing the same in the life of Tinubu and that is why even at 70yrs he remains an unfolding enigma to them even as he marches fearlessly towards the fulfilment of his mission. His carriage at this time has aptly demonstrated the understanding that a child sent by his father on a mission will break every barrier on his way with unusual boldness knowing the power of the one who sent him. Tinubu knows that God is with him and will support all the way.

    We therefore pray the good lord who has given him to us to keep him in good health and preserve him so that he can live long to fulfil the purpose for which God almighty brought him into existence.

    Our hands are joined together at this threshold of history with Senator Ahmed Tinubu’s well wishers all over the world including the men and women he has raised to once again plead with him to continue providing his leadership roles to us. Our beagles are in our mouths shouting from the rooftops in support of your march to Aso rock. May the wind never cease from your sail and be assured that all of our hands are on the deck to ensure that you are not discouraged or pushed away from your divinely ordained mission.

    We restate our position when he celebrated his 65yrs in 2017;

    “It is not an easy task but the nation unanimously agrees as testified by the outpouring of praises that Tinubu can do it, they believe that he is equal to the task and can deliver. We pledge our continued loyalty and support towards delivering the promise and expectations of Nigerians. We assure BAT that he will never be alone as he takes up the mantle which this has placed upon him. We shall be with him and we shall work with him holding his hands at all times until victory is delivered to all Nigerians”

    At this time of the long sword we pray that God will strengthen him, provide him with the requisite energy and equip him with wisdom, understanding and knowledge that he needs to continue driving the vision so that the mission will be fulfilled. We are vigilant and we urge the Jagaban Borgu to refuse to be distracted by the noise around, the betrayals and the backstabbing! Our God has a shield around you and we pray him to fortify that hedge around you as we go deeper into the mucky waters of 2023 elections!

    Long live the Asiwaju! Long live the Jagaban!! Long live Tinubu at 70!!! Long Live APC!!!! Long Live Nigeria!!!!!

     

    • Jimoh is member Lagos State House of Assembly representing Apapa Constituency ii

     

     

     

     

     

  • Of herdsmen and the Ogun security architecture

    Of herdsmen and the Ogun security architecture

    Whichever way one looks at it, the security situation in the country is at a critical stage. It is ominous. In the last few weeks, in particular, terrorists masquerading as herders have unleashed mayhem on Nigerians,  killing and maiming people at will. In part emboldened by the feeble response of the Security apparatus of the state to their nefarious activities, the herders have made the states of the North virtually ungovernable. They have also pushed further down South, particularly the South-West intending to disturb the peace and rupture the traditional climate of calm in the zone. In particular, they have been making strenuous efforts to impose a state of anarchy on the South-West, a situation which informed analysts to make a wake-up call to the Governors in the zone.

    There is no doubting the fact that the incessant attacks by Fulani herdsmen and criminals of different hues in the South-West are becoming worrisome. And that is the crux of the editorial intervention under reference, which cites the recent attacks on residents of eight villages in the Imeko-Afon local government area by murderous herders, the violent exchange between herdsmen and some Ohori farmers at Idofa village that left five persons dead, and property worth millions of naira destroyed, among others, to buttress its point that the situation calls for urgent action. One indeed agrees that renewed violence by marauding by herdsmen, kidnappers and armed robbers in the South-West has foregrounded the exigency of adopting a vigorous security response to safeguard lives and property in the region, and that South-West governors need to stop the rampage before the region descends into full-scale anarchy. To be sure, we acknowledge the fact that the security situation in the South-West is becoming worrisome, considering the fact that cases of kidnapping are becoming rampant on the Lagos Ibadan/expressway and in other places, including Yewa area and Ondo and Ekiti states. of the South-West. If anything, the killing of Mrs Funke Olakunri, daughter of Afenifere leader Pa Reuben Fasoranti in Ondo State, among other tragic occurrences, caused the people of the zone deep sorrow.

    The reality is that the Ogun State government, conscious of its constitutional mandate, is doing everything humanly possible to ensure that the lives and properties of Ogun people and all Nigerians and non-Nigerians passing through Ogun State are safe.

    Ogun State came to the centre stage of discussion in large part because of its status as the gateway to the nation. It shares borders with the international community, and the fact is well known that the country’s borders are porous, a fact which has given invaders from neighbouring countries a leeway. The threat by criminals in Ogun is therefore three-fold: by invaders from neighbouring countries, by armed herders from up North, and by local outlaws. It is a fact that the invaders take refuge in the forests, but that, precisely, is where they will meet their waterloo. Amotekun is well fortified in Yewa and other suburbs to curb their influx. It is working in conjunction with the major security services including Army, Navy, Police, Immigration and Customs and the DSS to curb their incursions into Nigerian territory through the area. Most of the attacks come from the area because of the proximity to the international borders.

    Read Also: We won’t allow killer herdsmen, kidnappers in our forests – Ogun

    At the moment, the state government has concluded arrangements to fortify all the 20 local government areas of the state with Amotekun operatives. In doing so, it has addressed all the logistic and operational problems that came up, as well as smoothening the issues of inter-agency collaboration. Some of the operatives had recently concluded their training, fully mobilized to complement the security architecture within the state.

    Ogun, arguably the most peaceful state in the country, will not be cowed by the recent attacks by marauding herders. If anything, Amotekun operatives are working hand in hand with other security operatives across the local governments in the state to ensure that people can sleep with their two eyes closed. That has always been Governor Abiodun’s cardinal objective and it has not changed. His antecedents as a major security stakeholder called upon by the Lagos State government to help fight armed robbery and carjacking through state-of-the-art technology stand him in good stead to contain the security threats rearing their heads in the Gateway decisively, and he is doing that admirably well, even though security strategies cannot be unmasked on the pages of newspapers.

    The governor has provided all the necessary equipment, including vehicles and security gadgets, to the Amotekun operatives and the state police command. The officers and are combat-ready. On the issue of cultism in Sagamu and other areas, it is apposite to note that the security agencies have arrested over 50 suspects and the police are working to ensure that the area is free of threats. They have been able to build trust in the state. In any case, Ogun and Oyo states Amotekun have set up a joint patrol around the border towns between the two states. They are keeping their men in the forests to fortify the area against threats from bandits.  The collaboration,  according to Ogun State Chairman of Amotekun,  a retired Commissioner of Police,  Mr Dave Akinyemi, is yielding good fruit in the area. He has allayed the fears of motorists and people living around the areas. Adequate security has been put in place to check upsurge of criminality in the area.

    When the governor came on board, he made successful efforts to rescue RCCG pastors who had been kidnapped by bandits, liaising with Abuja to obtain a helicopter which was used to survey the areas on target. All four pastors were realeased unhurt. He distributed 200 motorcycles and 100 4×4 hilux vans to the police for effective surveillance of the nooks and crannies of the state. That momentum has continued even though there have been challenges emanating from the overarching national security architecture. With the support of critical stakeholders like traditional institutions and the media, the battle will be won.

     

    Branco contributes this piece through funmibranco@naver.com