The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is facing a leadership crisis, legal battles, and internal divisions that have left it struggling to survive ahead of 2027. The decision of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to recognise the Nyesom Wike-led faction is a move that could worsen the party’s divisions and weaken democratic accountability, writes DEPUTY POLITICAL EDITOR RAYMOND MORDI.
The once-dominant People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which ruled Nigeria for 16 consecutive years, now finds itself locked in a fight not merely for political relevance, but for its very survival. A party that once bestrode the country’s political landscape like a colossus is today consumed by internal warfare so intense that it threatens to erase its status as a national opposition force.
What began as a seemingly routine leadership tussle over the National Secretary position has grown into a full-blown existential crisis, fracturing the party along bitter personal, factional, and regional lines.
In the main, it is a power struggle between the group led by Nyesom Wike, Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, and a rival group supported by Governors Seyi Makinde and Bala Mohammed. Other key figures include Adolphus Wabara, who serves as the chairman of the PDP Board of Trustees (BoT); former Acting National Chairman, Umar Damagum; and Senator Aminu Waziri Tambuwal (Turaki). The real issue is not just about party positions in Abuja, but about who will shape the future of what was once Africa’s largest political party.
Many observers say that INEC’s decision to recognise the Wike-aligned caretaker committee has not eased tensions. Instead, it has made divisions worse and set the stage for a long legal and political battle. Now, there is even doubt about whether the PDP will be able to field candidates in the 2027 general election—a question that would have seemed unthinkable ten years ago.
This legal and political crisis is part of a wider trend in Nigeria, where courts are now deciding party matters that used to be settled internally. As the 2027 elections approach, the collapse of the main opposition party could push Nigeria toward one-party dominance, weakening the checks and balances essential to democracy. Personal ambition, legal tactics, weak institutions, and the ruling party’s influence are all contributing to the PDP’s decline.
Crisis forged in court
INEC’s decision to recognise the Wike-aligned caretaker committee came after a Federal High Court ruling in Ibadan that overturned actions by the PDP’s previous leadership. This cleared the way for an interim leadership favoured by the Wike group. Officially, INEC said it was following a court order, but many in the party see it as a move that shifts the balance of power.
Instead of resolving the ongoing fight for control of the PDP, the recognition has increased mistrust and encouraged one faction to act as if it has already won. “This recognition does not solve anything,” said a senior PDP official involved in the legal battles. “It simply empowers one side to behave as if the conflict has ended. But the other side does not accept defeat, and that is what makes this moment extremely dangerous.”
Soon after INEC’s decision, the Wike-aligned group quickly took steps to strengthen its control. They dissolved zonal structures and changed convention dates to March 29 and 30. They also met with INEC officials, though the rival faction claims these meetings are illegal because appeals are still pending in higher courts. Opponents see these actions as an attempt to make changes permanent before the courts can rule.
The opposing group has strongly criticised INEC’s recognition. The Turaki-led faction says the decision is not neutral but evidence that the electoral body is siding with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to weaken the opposition.
PDP staff unions and the People’s Democratic Institute have also declared their support for the Turaki-led National Working Committee (NWC), calling the Ibadan court ruling controversial and inconsistent.
Former Lagos State PDP Publicity Secretary, Taofik Gani, articulates a view widely shared within this camp. “Given the level of degradation that has unfortunately befallen the judiciary in this country,” he argues, “it is safe to say that judgments arising from issues about the PDP would be influenced by the APC-led government in power. The idea of recognising the Wike-led faction is simply to satisfy the ruling party by further destabilising the PDP.”
Dr Eddy Olafeso, former PDP National Vice Chairman (Southwest), highlights problems with the Ibadan judgment. “The judge said he would not grant mandamus,” Olafeso says, “yet he went ahead and granted reliefs that were not even sought. INEC, which was supposed to be a neutral umpire, has now joined the fray.” For these stakeholders, INEC’s action is not a solution but an escalation, trapping the party in ongoing legal battles that could last until the 2027 elections.
Judiciary’s pervasive role
The PDP’s situation reflects a wider trend in the country, where judges and court orders now shape political parties more than internal agreements. Courts, once a last resort for tough disputes, are now the first choice for unhappy factions. This continues even though Section 84(14) of the 2022 Electoral Act was meant to limit court involvement to candidate nominations, not leadership issues.
This legal overreach has serious effects. Parties like the PDP and Labour Party (LP) are stuck in ongoing court cases over leadership. These disputes use up money, create uncertainty, and weaken public trust in political institutions. A senior constitutional lawyer says these problems often happen because internal party democracy has broken down, so factions turn to the courts as their “last hope.”
For governors, lawmakers, and other politicians, the risks are clear. A court could overturn party leadership just before primaries, making it too risky to stay. This legal uncertainty encourages defections, as politicians look for stability and support from the ruling party. In this way, the courts have unintentionally sped up political realignment.
Will the PDP field candidates in 2027?
Amid this turmoil, the main question for the PDP is whether it can organise itself well enough to field a united slate of candidates in 2027. This is becoming less certain. Some constitutional lawyers warn that the PDP could face the same fate as the APC in Zamfara State in 2019, when internal disputes kept the party off the ballot.
“If there is no clear, legally recognised leadership by the time primaries are conducted,” an Abuja-based senior lawyer cautions, “the consequences could be catastrophic.”
Two parallel and deeply troubling scenarios now loom.
The first risk is fragmentation. If legal battles continue, INEC may face several competing lists of candidates from different PDP factions. This could lead to disqualifications, court-ordered changes, and more lawsuits after the election, hurting the party’s chances. This has already happened in Ekiti State, where INEC removed the PDP’s governorship candidate because of internal disputes.
The second risk is that the Wike-aligned faction, now recognized by INEC, could take over party structures nationwide, hold primaries, and present its own candidates as the real PDP representatives. Critics say the goal may not be to win the presidency, but to keep the party too weak and divided to challenge President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election.
Dr Olafeso frames this view bluntly. “Governor Makinde told the whole nation that Wike promised to hold the PDP down for President Tinubu in 2027,” he says. “From what is happening today, is he not holding the party down for the APC?”
In this case, the PDP would still exist but act as a weak opposition, putting forward less competitive candidates and focusing on a few local wins instead of aiming for national success.
Governors under pressure: who stays, who goes?
The PDP now controls only four states: Oyo, Bauchi, Adamawa, and Zamfara. Even before the current crisis, the party lost many members. Five PDP governors joined the APC last year, and another moved to the Accord Party, blaming internal problems and leadership uncertainty. As a result, the APC now controls 30 out of 36 states.
Given this situation, the choices of the four remaining PDP governors are very important. What they decide will show early on whether the party can continue as a national force.
Seyi Makinde
Faction: Turaki/Makinde-led group.
Likely 2027 Path: High risk of defection to the ADC.
Makinde is the most prominent governor opposing Wike and a key member of the dissatisfied group. His position in a Wike-led PDP seems impossible to maintain. He has built his political reputation on resisting the current leadership. As a southern progressive with national goals, he may join the African Democratic Congress (ADC), but could also consider the APC if needed for his political future.
Bala Mohammed
Faction: Turaki/Makinde-led group.
Likely 2027 Path: High risk of defection to APC.
In the Northeast, where federal influence is strong, Governor Mohammed may decide to join the ruling party, especially if the PDP in Bauchi State comes under the control of his opponents.
Ahmadu Fintiri
Faction: Historically independent.
Likely 2027 Path: Remain PDP or defect to APC.
Fintiri is known for switching sides and may try to stay neutral for now. In the end, he will likely choose the option that gives him the best chance of re-election, even if that means joining the APC.
Dauda Lawal
Faction: Unclear.
Likely 2027 Path: Remain PDP or defect to APC.
Lawal governs a troubled Northwest state facing security challenges and is under pressure to maintain good relations with the Federal Government. This need for stability may be more important to him than loyalty to any faction.
In all these cases, ideology matters little. As a former PDP leader in Enugu says, defections are “about staying relevant, not about ideology or what the people actually want.”
The democratic deficit
If the PDP collapses, it is not just an internal party issue—it is a real threat to Nigeria’s democracy. Since 2015, the PDP has been the only opposition party with a national presence. Its fall would unbalance the political system.
Analysts warn that Nigeria may be moving from a democracy decided by voters to one decided by the courts, where legal details matter more than the people’s choice. “Governance should be determined by the electorate, not the courts,” the senior lawyer cautions.
At the local level, the effects are clear. A former PDP youth leader notes that most Nigerians are not focused on party infighting. “People talk about hunger, school fees, and insecurity,” he says. “While elites fight over party structures, real issues are neglected.”
Flicker of hope or end of the road?
Is there still hope for the PDP? Reconciliation is possible in theory, but it becomes less likely with every new court decision and heated statement. It would take major compromises, probably led by respected elder statesmen. However, leaders like former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who once brought order, are not involved.
If there is no intervention, the likely outcome is a split. The Turaki/Makinde group could leave for parties such as the ADC or the NNPP, causing a major shake-up. This might create a smaller but more united opposition, but it could also mean losing the 2027 election to the APC.
Right now, Wadata Plaza, the PDP’s national headquarters, is a symbol of the party’s deadlock. Police sealed it during the crisis, showing how contested the party’s space has become. Whether the PDP recovers or fades away will affect not only the 2027 election but also the future of Nigeria’s democracy. The stakes are very high.
