Category: Saturday Magazine

With the presidential election roughly five weeks from now, our team of correspondents and analysts take a look at how the race is shaping up.
In this instalment which focuses on states in the South-South, Southeast and Southwest zones, Deputy Editor, Emmanuel Oladesu and Assistant Editor, Dare Odufowokan, Toba Adedeji (Osogbo), Rasaq Ibrahim (Ado-Ekiti), Bisi Oladele (Ibadan), Osagie Otabor (Akure), Aiwerie Okungbowa (Asaba), Gil Nsa (Calabar) Ogo Anioke (Abakaliki), Damian Duruihuoma (Enugu), Chris Njoku (Owerri) and Sunny Nwankwo (Aba), zero in on four presidential candidates who are making varying degrees of impact in the regions. They are Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).
They are supported with additional reports by Nwanosike Onu (Awka) and Mike Odiegwu (Port Harcourt).

DELTA STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 3,221,697

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 48,910; PDP: 1,211,405

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 221,292; PDP: 594,068

The leading political parties in Delta State have revved up campaigns as the 2023 general elections inches ever so close: the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), All Progressive Congress (APC), and to some extent, Labour Party (LP), have embarked on a charm offensive in a bid to win the hearts of Deltans.

PDP

Delta, being an old stomping ground of the PDP, has recorded huge success in past elections, contributing immeasurably to its victories in elections. But with internal crisis weakening the party that may change in the 2023 presidential elections.

In the last three presidential elections (2011, 2015 and 2019), it recorded landslide victories with 98% (1,378,851 votes), 98% (1,211,406 votes) and 67% (594,068 votes) respectively.

And with a likely voter strength of 3,221,697, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Delta State represents a major battleground in the South/South geopolitical zone.

Despite being hobbled by internal crisis, the PDP has embarked on a whirlwind campaign across the three senatorial districts. It followed that first wave of local government campaigns with a ward-to-ward campaign, culminating in the grand finale presidential rally billed for January 24 in Asaba, the state capital.

The ruling party has faced a gale of defections from prominent members that may have implications for it in the general elections, causing analysts to predict doomsday for the party.

For starters, ex-governor Chief James Ibori, has been indifferent to the party’s cause in the run up to this year’s election following the impasse over the emergence of Sheriff Oborevwori as the gubernatorial flagbearer in a hotly contested shadow poll.

The tense relations between Ibori and incumbent governor Ifeanyi Okowa has polarised the party with many openly pitching camp with the former.

Although Ibori remains a PDP member, he has recently been seen flirting with the opposition APC, attending social events of stalwarts of the party.

Further compounding its woes is the fact that of the three senators representing the state at the National Assembly, only Senator James Manager is a PDP member. He is said to be non-committal to the success of the party at the polls.

Senator Peter Nwaboshi has defected to APC, while Deputy Senate President, Ovie Omo-Agege, is the APC’s gubernatorial candidate.

Curiously, Okowa at a recent PDP rally at Ogwashi-Uku, Aniocha South LGA, urged Deltans to muster one million votes for his party, effectively surrendering the balance votes to the opposition.

He said: “We have over 3.3 million registered voters in Delta and I challenge us to churn out over one million votes for our party to enable us to deliver on our Rescue Nigeria mission.

“The more votes we bring from Delta, the bigger my voice will be in the party and the greater things we will witness in Delta and Nigeria.

“I know that we have won this election already, but we need to up our numbers because God has endorsed our election and we are only waiting for the day to come and pass.”

Despite the governor’s optimism, the prognosis appears dire for the party at the presidential polls.

APC

Since the emergence of Omo-Agege as APC governorship candidate, the fortunes of the opposition have received a boost.

Warring factions have sheathed their swords leading to greater unity. Also, the party has been the major beneficiary of the defections that have hit the PDP; harvesting prominent ruling party members across the three senatorial districts.

Omo-Agege hails from the Urhobo ethnic group, an ethnic group with huge numerical advantage. He has successfully turned the APC into a formidable force – forging alliances with key ethnic groups in Delta South, including the Ijaws, Isokos and Itsekiris and Delta North, especially the Ndokwa nation.

Of strategic importance are the Ijaw because of their huge turnout in past elections. The Ijaw areas of Delta South, according to INEC, are among the top four with the highest voter turnout.

For example, in the 2011 presidential election, INEC listed Burutu, Bomadi, Warri Southwest and Warri North in Delta South as being among top four areas with the highest voter turnout.

It  listed Burutu with a population of 276,892 as having 72% voter turnout, Bomadi with 144,518 had 86.6%, Warri Southwest, with 155,154 had 87.3% and Warri North,with 181,263  had 87.3%.This pattern has largely held true till date.

The Ijaw areas have almost always produced the highest number of votes for the PDP in past elections in the state. And with the romance between APC presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu and Ijaw leader, Chief Government Ekpemukpolo, the chances of the PDP at the presidential polls are becoming increasingly slim, if a deal is struck.

It remains to be seen whether the APC can capitalise on the crisis within the ruling party to upstage it at the general elections.

LP

The Labour Party is a minor party in Delta. Before now, it was anonymous in the political terrain. Their claim to fame is due largely to its presidential candidate Peter Obi. Aside from the backing it enjoys in some urban centres, it is an unknown quantity in many rural areas.

Coupled with the fact that it is an unknown quantity, the party has done little to scour the hinterland for votes during this campaign season, as the APC and PDP has been doing lately.

Obi’s visit to the state, while not a total failure, did not attract the huge turnout associated with the APC or PDP.

The party has not been able to attract the high calibre political personages that defected to APC from the PDP, leading some analysts to conclude that the presidential race in the state is between PDP and APC.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

CROSS RIVER STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,766,466

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 28,368; PDP: 414,863

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 117,302; PDP: 295,737

There are three major political parties that have winning probabilities in Cross River State. They are APC, PDP and Labour Party.

These three parties have fielded candidates for both the presidential and National Assembly Elections holding on February 25th.

However, the probabilities of winning the state as it concerns the presidential elections vary and will be different in 2023. Cross River’s political equation literally has a reset default system. The scenarios and calculations are completely different from what the case was since 2003 when the PDP always recorded over 80% victory at the presidential polls and even much more in the National Assembly Elections and others.

The three major contenders for the presidential election voters in the state will be the APC candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, the PDP candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, and the LP candidate, Peter Obi.

Of the three, it would be an upset if the Labour candidate takes the day.

According to pundits, the popularity of LP is only recently enhanced by the choice of it presidential candidate who is making waves but has not really been tested in electoral terms.

Okon Ubong, a businessman resident in Akamkpa Local Government Area, noted that Obi and his supporters are quite noisy and noticeable in urban areas, but less so in the rural areas.

So, the probability of the LP candidate recording a presidential election victory in the state is under 50%, but it is safe to project that he may record between 15% and 25% votes in his favour.

He cited a scenario saying, the performance record of the LP candidate on Election Day may be limited by an equally limited number of foot soldiers acting as agents for the presidential candidate and national assembly candidates in respective areas.

“These agents of LP may not be everywhere on Election Day; particularly in the hard-to-reach rural communities, unlike the situation with the PDP and the APC that both have political structures for every polling unit.

So, Obi’s presidential ambition may make a mark in the state but it may not be enough to win the state.

The PDP is another political party with a candidate that has acceptability in various quarters. Cross River has been a state under the administration of PDP from 1999 until 2021 when Gov. Ben Ayade defected to APC.

That movement changed the political landscape and dynamics of the state. So, the PDP now has to contain the power of an incumbent governor from another party.

Even worse, political developments in the main opposition party have pitched the party’s presidential candidate Alhaji Atiku Abaubarkar against the Governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike, and four other colleagues of theirs rallying under the G5 banner. The dispute has divided the PDP in Cross River. Senior stakeholders of the party in the state are divided into Atiku and Wike camps.

For instance, former Governor Liyel Imoke and one of the current senators, Gershom Bassey, are strongly backing the candidacy of Atiku. On the other hand, former Governor Donald Duke and the governorship flagbearer of the party Senator Sandy Onor are allies of Wike who does not expect any of his friends to support Atiku. The division will take a toll on whatever fortune PDP expects from the state. This is in addition to the inroads that APC has made as the ruling party,

So, the presidential contest as it relates to the chances of the three political parties – LP, PDP, and APC – remains quite open. But the incumbent government is poised to prove a point. State chairman of APC, Dr. Alphonsius Eba, says the will deliver at least 500,000 votes to Tinubu on Feb. 25th if the total voters on that day turns out to be around 700,000.

VERDICT: LEANING APC

AKWA IBOM STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,357,418

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 58,411; PDP: 953,304

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 175,429; PDP: 395,832

The dynamics of the forthcoming general elections in the state is shaping to be quite intriguing. The factors driving the presidential contest are quite different from the local issues that would determine the governorship poll.

For the first time since the return of democratic governance in 1999, the 2023 governorshp election in Akwa Ibom state promises to be the most fiercely contested.

This is because of the array of powerful and popular candidates flying the tickets of major political parties as well as several other factors that may swing the pendulum to any of the sides.

The election is going to be a two-horse race between PDP and APC. 

The Young Progresssives Party (YPP) and NNPP will also make some impact as they relatively new parties in the political space of the state.

Simply put, the battle for the Hilltop Mansion will be fiercely fought by Pastor Umo Eno of PDP and Obong Akanimo Udofia of APC.

Both parties have a rich war chest, meaning that while the PDP will deploy its power of incumbency, the APC will avail itself of powerful politicians who have occupied and are currently in top federal appointments.

Though parties such as LP, Accord Party (AP) Allied Peoples Movement (APM), African Action Congress (AAC), African Democratic Congress (ADC), the Boot Party (BP) etc are in the race, their governorship candidates are considered as political ‘Lilliputians’ without pedigree.

The poll as it were will not be ‘a walk in the park’ for the PDP which has always prided itself as a religion in Akwa Ibom because of its political dominance in the past years.

In the presidential race, Governor Udom Emmanuel is the chairman of the Atiku-Okowa presidential campaign council. In that capacity, he would be expected to deploy all his political capital as an incumbent to deliver the state to his principal.

However, he has his work cut out for him given sentiments in the state which suggest that it is not equitable for another Northerner to succeed Muhammadu Buhari as president. These same arguments were what gave rise to the Southern Governors’ famous Asaba Declaration which demanded that power shift down south in 2023.

The PDP, however, chose to do the opposite by choosing Atiku as its candidate. That is turning out to be a hard sell in state and is said to be benefitting LP’s Obi even with rank and file PDP members.

That said, APC’s performance in the presidential elections has improved progressively in the state since 2015 when it polled a measly 58,411 – less than 10% of total votes cast. Four years later those numbers tripled. Much of that has to do with the defection of heavyweights like for Governor Godswill Akpabio and others who came to fortify the party.

With the recent affirmation of his senatorial ticket by the Supreme Court, the former governor would be out to prove that he’s not finished as a political force in the state. This is expected to benefit the APC candidate Tinubu and continue the upward electoral performance of the party in the presidential polls.

LP’s Obi is also said to be quite popular with the masses of the people and is widely expected to put up a credible performance despite his party not having the structural depth of the two biggest parties in the state. These structures are evident in the way the governorship race is playing out and would be used to impact the federal contests also.

Referring to the gubernatorial race, a political analyst, Mr. Udeme Uyoatta said: “the battle is between the APC and the PDP. They have an almost equal amount of strength as far as the 2023 governorship election is concerned.

“They will adopt all forms of methods to outwit one another including deploying huge financial inducements to sway voters to their side”.

But pundits suggest that victory in the election will not be determined only on the basis of party but essentially by the strength, popularity and acceptability of the candidates flying the flags of the various parties.

Each of the parties and their candidates have some factors working for or against them. These factors constitute their strengths and weaknesses that will brighten or dim their chances of victory.

VERDICT: LEANING PDP, OBI TO DO WELL ALSO

OGUN STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,688,305

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 308,290; PDP: 207,950

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 281,762; PDP: 194,655

In Ogun State, the contest is between APC, which is the ruling party in the state, and PDP. In spite of the fact that an intra-party struggle for the leadership of the latter weakened the opposition in the state, the Sikiru Ogundele-led State Executive Committee (SEC) has managed to keep its challenge to APC alive. Thus, the two parties are expected to continue their rivalry in the presidential contest.

For the LP, its presence is largely felt in Abeokuta, the state capital and Ijebu-Ode in the East Senatorial District. “Beyond these two major towns, it is only in the Sango Ota axis that you can see anything that has to do with Labour Party. This is due to the closeness of that area to Lagos State,” Comrade Bode Adu, Ogun State Secretary of the Joint Action Coalition for Democracy (JACD), told our correspondent.

But the ongoing face-off between the suspended National Publicity Secretary of LP, Abayomi Arabambi and the leadership of the party, has further weakened the party in Ogun. “Arabambi is the embodiment of LP in Ogun State. He is the one who popularised the party here. He was its state chairman and gubernatorial candidate at different times. Without Arabambi, there is no LP in Ogun,” Adu said. The Nation also gathered that the embattled LP chieftain and his supporters may be considering dumping the party soon.

The shocking withdrawal of the governorship candidate of NNPP, Jackie Adunni Kassim, in October, ended whatever chance the party had to make impact. Kassim, the only female gubernatorial candidate in the state before her withdrawal, was the only sign of presence the party had ahead of the general elections. She announced her withdrawal from the race, over ‘betrayal’ by the leadership of NNPP. “All of us here will decide wherever we will go, because I don’t want any of my supporters to suffer. This is my position,” she announced.

The people

Going by the support enjoyed by APC as the ruling party, the party appears ready for whatever challenge the opposition may throw its way. Almost all the political bigwigs in the state are members of the party. To start with, all former governors of the state alive today are APC chieftains. Former Governor Segun Osoba has been the leader of APC in the state since inception while immediate past governor, Ibikunle Amosun, in spite of his lingering face-off with Governor Dapo Abiodun, has never left the party since it was formed.

In February 2021, former Governor Gbenga Daniel officially defected to APC, barely two years after serving as Director-General of the Atiku Abubakar Presidential Campaign Organisation at the last presidential election. He had in March 2019 officially resigned from the party, saying he was pulling out from partisan politics. He was received into APC at his Asoludero residence, Sagamu, by Abiodun, Ondo State Governor, Rotimi Akeredolu, Atiku Bagudu (Kebbi), Kano State Governor, Abdullahi Ganduje and Niger State Governor, Abubakar Bello.

Aside the three former governors, the APC in Ogun boasts of almost all former Deputy Governors and ex-National Assembly members. Across the three senatorial districts, the party enjoys the support of the major leaders, leaving the opposition with starters and a few notable figures. Before his death last year, Buruji Kashamu, was about the only formidable politician that was not a member of the APC. Today, many of his then allies have joined the ruling party.

In Ogun West, the unusual coalition among the camps of Senator Solomon Olamilekan (Yayi), Hon. Abiodun Akinlade (Baba Adeen), and Gboyega Isiaka (GNI), according to analysts, will deliver the votes for the APC presidential candidate in February. For the first time in years, the three leading heavyweights in the district are working for the same candidate. Former minister, Senator Iyabo Anisulowo, former Deputy Governor, Alhaja Salmat Badru and former Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Hon. Suraj Adekunbi, are also in APC.

Incumbent Deputy Governor, Noimot Salako-Oyedele, Vice Director-General of the Ogun State APC Campaign Council from Ogun West, Chief Jide Ojuko, House of Representatives candidate for Ado-Odo/Ota Federal Constituency, Tunji Akinosi, Chief Kunle Salako, Chief Sikiru Adegbite, and several other prominent leaders in the district are poised to work for the success of APC’s Tinubu next February.

Until its swift move in getting Ipokia-born Adekunle Akinlade, the 2019 governorship candidate of the APM, to pair with Adebutu as its deputy governorship candidate, PDP was almost going without a presence in Ogun West. Its senatorial candidate in the zone, Chief Ganiu Dada (Oluwo-Itoki, Otta – Aworiland), is regarded as a new comer to the politics of the state and as such may not make much impact beyond Ota, his birth place. No doubt, PDP lacks the support base currently being enjoyed by APC in Ogun West. Chief Alani Akinde, Elder Sunday Soledolu, Asiwaju Oriyomi, Chief Tolu Bankole and Chief Lisa Adejobi are the few names the party can boasts of ahead of the election.

Ogun East is also looking good for APC as Abiodun and Daniel lead the party in the zone. While the governor is seeking re-election, Daniel is the APC candidate for the 2023 senatorial election in the distirct that will take place same day as the presidential election. Both Senator Gbenga Kaka and Lekan Mustapha are also in APC to complete the team that is sure to win the area for Tinubu ahead of any other presidential candidate, in spite of the presence of Adebutu, the PDP governorship candidate in the zone.

Immediate past Post Master General of the Federation, Asiwaju Bisi Adegbuyi, Senator Dipo Odujirin, Otunba Oluseyi Oduntan, a former Managing Director of the Honeywell Group, Olusegun Olumide-Senbanjo, Deji Ashiru popularly known as EDA, Hon. Biyi Adeleye, and many other prominent politicians have all signed up for the Tinubu presidency project and are working round the clock to deliver the zone to the APC presidential candidate.

The PDP also have a strong presence in Ogun East, especially in the Remo axis. But for the crisis between the camps of Adebutu and the late Kashamu, the party would be expected to do well in the Ijebu axis too where the late senator’s political influence still abounds. But with members of the team displeased with Adebutu and the national leadership of the party, it is rumoured that they are not favourably disposed towards working for Atiku at the polls. The duo of Adebutu and Kola Ogunjobi are among the leading PDP campaigners in the Remo area.

Segun Seriki, a well-known ally of the late Kashamu, Ajibola Kalejaiye, a former council chairman in Ijebu Igbo Local Government Area, Hon. Adesegun Adekoya, the House of Representatives member representing Ijebu North/Ijebu East/Ogun Waterside, and some other PDP chieftains in the Ijebu axis are also expected to work for Atiku.

But analysts say it will be difficult for the party to match the efforts currently being put in place by APC in the district ahead of the presidential election. “With Daniel prosecuting a senatorial election same day, the APC is not leaving any stone unturned to ensure the votes in Ogun East go to Tinubu,” a source said.

The structures

In Ogun State, the APC, as the ruling party, boasts of the best structures. The party has been in charge of the governance for twelve years without interruption, thus, its presence is felt in all parts of the state in terms of appointments and patronages.

Speaking during a mega walk by the party in support of Tinubu last month, Governor Abiodun said Ogun is an APC state and the people have obtained their Permanent Voter’s Card (PVC), in order to be eligible to vote for Tinubu.

The governor may not have embellished his statement. APC, aside from being the ruling party in the state, produced all the incumbent senators and all three are committed to the presidential aspiration of Tinubu. In spite of their disagreement with Abiodun, Senator Ibikunle Amosun of Ogun Central and Senator Tolu Odebiyi of Ogun West are mobilising support for the former Lagos governor’s victory in their constituencies and beyond. Senator Lekan Mustapha in Ogun East is doing same and working hand in hand with the governor.

The APC also has its members as the federal legislators representing eight out of the nine federal constituencies of the state, leaving PDP with only Ijebu North/Ijebu East/Ogun Waterside where Hon. Adesegun Adekoya holds the seat. This is expected to work in favour of the ruling party’s presidential candidate on Election Day. Presently, the Ogun State House of Assembly consists of 25 members of the APC and one member of the PDP. This is also seen as a huge advantage for the APC candidate.

Last July, the party confirmed its political supremacy when it won all the positions available across the state during the local government elections. Consequently, it controls all the 20 council areas. The party also won all the councillorship positions across the state. “With the current leaderships in the council and wards across the state, the APC is conveniently in charge at the grassroots and that will count in its favour during all the elections,” Adu said.

With about eighty chieftains of the party, spread across the state, serving in Abiodun’s cabinet as commissioners, special advisers, consultants, and senior special assistants, all ready to ensure the APC presidential candidate emerges victorious in their respective constituencies, the ruling party appears to be more favoured to carry the day in come February. The relative peace within the leadership of the party in the state under the chairmanship of Chief Yemi Sanusi is also an added advantage for APC.

The PDP, in spite of its unending crisis, also boasts of widespread presence in the state. Though factionalised, the party has managed to retain its popularity in some parts, especially in Ogun East where both the late Kashamu and Adebutu, hail from. However, the party has lost most of its heavyweights to APC since the last general elections, largely due to the unending internal wrangling that bedeviled it since 2011. Sadly, the remnant of the party is also divided into factions.

After months of litigation over the party’s gubernatorial ticket, the factions recently announced a truce. But observers say the olive branch is not total as there are a lot of issues still unresolved. The Kashamu faction had berated the party’s NWC for recognising Adebutu as the gubernatorial candidate. Some of the litigation that followed are still in court though an Appeal Court verdict in favour of Adebutu brought respite to the troubled party few weeks ago.

It is also not clear if the Samson Bamgbose-led faction that produced Jimi Lawal as its gubernatorial candidate will work for the presidential aspiration of Atiku. Already, there are rumours that the faction may be planning to work against the PDP candidate in retaliation for his supporting Adebutu against Lawal in the struggle for the gubernatorial ticket of the party. Should that happen, Atiku’s campaign train will run with half the engine of the state chapter of the PDP. This will further militate against his chances at the polls.

The opposition party is further limited by the fact that it does not have political office holders in office currently. Save for Hon. Adesegun Adekoya, the Rep member representing Ijebu North/Ijebu East/Ogun Waterside in the National Assembly, and the Ijebu North I state constituency representative, Abiodun Sylvester, the party cannot boast of any elected or appointed political office holder anywhere in the state. This, pundits say, will affect it adversely at the general elections. Of course, this has also hurt its visibility in many areas of the state.

Aside from the presence it enjoys in a couple of major towns outside the state capital, the Labour Party is also well known to social media users across the state on account of the activities of its online campaigners, especially supporters of its presidential candidate Obi. But analysts say the majority of Ogun voters, who are in the rural areas, may not know Obi well enough to give him their votes. Aside from a rally held by his youthful supporters in Abeokuta last year, no meaningful presidential campaign effort is being carried out by the party. But former Ogun State Commissioner of Finance and governorship candidate of LP in the state, Kehinde Sogunle, says the party is ready to deliver the state to Obi next February. According to him, they have the people and structure to do that. But analysts wonder how this will be done.

For Kwankwaso and the NNPP, Ogun is definitely not a place where they will garner much votes. The party and its candidate are simply not in the picture as far as the presidential election is concerned in the state. It has not campaigned anywhere in the state and its offices are not visible if they even exist at all.

Checks by our correspondent revealed that Femi Aina, Kehinde Teluwo and Wasiu Ajirotutu, who are the party’s candidate for Ogun West, Ogun Central and Ogun East senatorial districts respectively, are all new comers to politics of the state, with little or no followership within their respective zones. “It will be difficult for Kwankwaso to make much impact given the current state of his party and candidates in Ogun,” Adu said.

Voting patterns

In 2019, APC presidential candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, won the presidential election with 281,762 votes. His closest rival Atiku polled 194,655 votes.

A breakdown of the result announced on local government basis as announced by local government collation officers showed that Buhari won in 14 of the 20 council areas while Atiku won in the remaining six council areas. The council areas won by Atiku are Ogun Waterside, Imeko Afon, Remo North, Ijebu North, Odogbolu and Ipokia Local Government Areas.

Though the APC won in Ado-Odo Ota, Ikenne, Yewa South, Sagamu, Ijebu North East, Ipokia and Yewa North, PDP put up very impressive showings that saw the ruling party managing slim victories in these council areas. In Ado Odo Ota, APC won with 34,148 votes to PDP’s 20,352. In Ikenne, it was APC10, 283 votes and 8,708 votes for PDP.

APC scored 12, 934 votes in Egbado South to PDP’s 10,709 votes, and in Sagamu, APC had 20,875 votes while PDP garnered 16, 532. APC got 6,435 votes in Ijebu North East and PDP scored 5,149 votes. The results from Ipokia showed that APC managed to win with 14,686 votes to PDP’s 12,313 votes. In Yewa North, APC won with 10,434 votes as PDP scored 10,388 votes.

Four years earlier, during the 2015 presidential election, the APC candidate polled 308,290 to defeat PDP’s Goodluck Jonathan who scored 207,950. From the breakdown of the results, the former won in 13 local governments while the latter took 7.

The local government areas won by PDP include Remo North, Imeko Afon and Sagamu Local Government Areas among others. But pundits say a lot will change in February as the PDP no longer boasts of the structure and men it had in 2015 and 2019.

“The APC is most likely to retain all the council areas it won in 2019 except Ipokia where the PDP may spring a surprise. The defection of Hon. Adekunle Akinlade from the APC to the PDP may cost the ruling party the council,” a source said.

Meanwhile, Remo North, Imeko Afon and Sagamu Local Government Areas, where they APC struggled for votes last year appear to be new strongholds of the ruling party today. The defections of former governor, Gbenga Daniel and Gboyega Isiaka, among many others, into the APC have strengthened the ruling party in these areas. All in all, the APC presidential candidate is likely to win the state with a wider margin than the two previous presidential elections.

VERDICT: APC TO WIN

OSUN STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,954,800

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 383,603; PDP: 249,929

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 347,634; 337,377

Ahead of next month’s general election, APC and PDP in Osun State are gathering their arsenal to secure votes for their presidential candidates.

The two leading political parties renewed their battle barely seven months after the governorship election of July 16th, 2022 when candidate of PDP, Senator Ademola Adeleke defeated the incumbent, Adegboyega Oyetola, with 28,344 votes after he polled 403,371 votes against 375,027 votes.

Another leading political party, Labour, is joining the scramble for votes.

Parties are drawing pattern of victory for 2023 poll from the analysis of results of 2019 presidential election and 2022 Osun guber election to make projections.

In 2019, shortly after the 2018 Osun gubernatorial election when Oyetola emerged, APC floored PDP with 10,297 votes after the party got 347,674 votes against Atiku’s 337,377 votes.

Strength of political parties

The PDP are still enjoying the tidal wave of guber victory of July 16th, 2022 and the honeymoon of the new government is not yet over, hence, the acceptability of the party is still very high in the state.

The party is still riding on the wave of protest votes against APC and the present government since they are yet to have the majority in the State House of Assembly, are all out to give it best to take the house from the grip of APC at the forthcoming election.

Some of the aggrieved camps within the PDP in Osun are joining forces to support the party in the forthcoming election subtly so as to curry the favour of the governor, Ademola Adeleke, to get government patronage, appointment and others after the election in February.

It would be recalled that strong leaders of PDP in Osun had pitched their camps against the party over the gubernatorial ticket in 2022. Prince Dotun Babayemi tackled Adeleke over the party’s ticket while Akin Ogunbiyi left the party but the dissenting voices from several camps in PDP are converging before February poll so that the party can carry the day.

Ogunbiyi who contested on the platform of Accord Party in 2022 has returned to the party, even he is a member of Presidential Campaign Committee of PDP. He will command the support of elite of the party who necessarily did not support the party over Adeleke’s candidature while supporters of Babayemi which includes, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola an ally to former president of Nigeria, Olusegun Obasanjo, will join force with the party to sway support for Atiku.

Also, defection of ex-deputy speaker of House of Representatives, Lasun Yusuf from Labour Party to PDP will give a lead way to victory for the party in the coming polls.

PDP will enjoy more support from Osun West which has the least of registered voters before they feast on other districts for votes.

Adeleke at different events affirmed that the Atiku/Okowa ticket will win Southwest in a landslide victory going by the goodwill and good programmes of the presidential candidate.

Weakness

Although, PDP is currently enjoining the honeymoon in the state but they have their limitations because of the weight of the candidate of APC, Tinubu.

The resolve of Southern governors to zone 2023 presidency to the south is a big challenge for PDP because many voters of PDP during the July 16th 2022 Osun governorship poll are likely to mobilise support for APC, while small fractions of them will support LP candidate Obi.

Also, many of the supporters who voted PDP during 2022 governorship will vote for a candidate that they are connected with in 2023. Tinubu will be the beneficiary.

Strength of APC

The recent action by the faction of Minister of Interior, Rauf Aregbesola, of dissolving the faction named The Osun Progressives (TOP) and return to the mainstream of APC will further boost the winning strategy of the party.

The loyalists of Aregbesola who sat back during 2022 election have decided to mobilise support for candidates APC. The unity is further cemented by inclusion of the leader of the faction, former chairman of the party, Adelowo Adebiyi and ex-speaker of Osun Assembly, Najeem Salam, in the APC Presidential Campaign Committee.

Also, the glaring inaction in governance style of PDP led administration since November 27th, 2022 till date will work in favour of APC.

APC will garner massive votes in Osun Central which has the highest number of registered voters because of the influence of first interim chairman of APC, Chief Bisi Akande as Adegboyega Oyetola will record almost same vote he recorded in 2022 in Boripe Local Government Area by getting bloc votes in Aagba, Iree, Iragbiji, Ada and many more.

Similarly, Osun East Senatorial district which has second highest number of registered voters, APC will record large votes which will pave way for victory for the party because of the influence of the national secretary of the party, Senator Iyiola Omisore in Ile-Ife axis while the influence of Aregbesola will cover Ijeshaland.

Influence of the former Deputy Governor, Mrs Titilayo-Laoye Ponle; Former Minister of Health, Professor Isaac Adewole; former Minister of Police Affairs, Alhaji Jelili Adesiyan will play role of victory for the party.

Oyetola while inaugurating the Osun Tinubu/Shettima Presidential Campaign Council (PCC), in Osogbo had charged members across the state to intensify efforts towards ensuring all round victory for the Tinubu and Shettima.

While tasking the members of the party to remain resolute, united and unperturbed, Oyetola expressed delight in the firmness of the party’s structure and commitment of the leadership and members of the APC in the state, saying it is signal to the fact that the party remains the party to beat anytime and any day in Osun.

Weakness

The defeat suffered by the party during the 2022 governorship election will affect the morale of the party in the forthcoming election because many of the party loyalist are greatly discouraged by the defeat of the incumbent, Adegboyega Oyetola.

One of the big factor that will influence the 2023 poll for PDP and APC is the awaiting judgement of 2022 Osun Governorship Election Petition Tribunal between Oyetola and Adeleke.

The pronouncement of the court will affect the morale of the two leading parties. If PDP is declared winner of 2022 election, it will further boost their morale to deliver the state for Atiku but if it is other way, APC energy will be boosted against PDP to secure Osun for Tinubu.

State of Labour Party in Osun

The Labour Party in the state is further weakened by the defection of the former deputy speaker of House of Representatives, Lasun Yusuf who the party field during 2022 governorship election to PDP will affect the party because he became the rallying point for the party at a point but now he has left.

Meanwhile, the party had gone back to drawing table to restrategise for the best wining plan for Peter Obi in the coming election. They have embarked on street campaigns to youths across the major towns of the state especially communities that host tertiary institutions to canvass for votes.

VERDICT: ADVANTAGE TINUBU, APC

OYO STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 3,276,675

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 528,620; PDP: 303,376

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 365,229; PDP: 366,690

In Oyo State, the February 25 presidential election will be a straight fight between APC’s Tinubu and PDP’s Atiku. Analysts are insisting that the fact that PDP is the ruling party will have very little effect on the performance of the presidential candidates.

“As a matter of fact, Oyo can conveniently be categorised as a battleground for the APC and the PDP to slug it out on February 25, 2023. The state is for the two leading parties and their candidates to win all things being equal,” an analyst said.

In the two previous presidential elections in the state, the two parties have won on one occasion each. In 2015, Buhari polled 528, 620 votes to defeat Jonathan of PDP who got 303,376 votes. The APC candidate won in 19 local government areas while his PDP counterpart took 15.

Four years later, Atiku defeated Buhari in the state. He took 18 local government areas while Buhari won in 15. Their total votes reflected a much closer contest with former garnering 366,640 to the latter’s 365,229 votes.

While the APC won the presidential election convincingly in 2015 with a wide margin as a newly-formed opposition party, the party, now in government, narrowly lost the same state to the opposition PDP in 2019. The development, to some observers, underscores the unpredictable nature of Oyo politics. And this also explains why both the ruling APC and the opposition PDP are not leaving any stone unturned in their quest for victory ahead of the presidential election.

Currently, the APC controls the three senatorial seats. In 2019, Senator Abdulfatai Buhari was elected to represent Oyo North. Teslim Folarin represents Oyo Central, while Senator Kola Balogun representing Oyo South, won on the platform of PDP. But he dumped the party and joined APC in 2021 after falling out with Governor Makinde.

The APC also has its members as representatives in nine out of the fourteen federal constituencies, leaving PDP with only five. During the 32 state constituencies’ election held on Saturday March 9, 2019, PDP won 26 seats, APC five seats and the African Democratic Party (ADP), won one seat. The results, again, underline the uncertain nature of Oyo politics. Observers say it is too early to predict how the electorate will vote on February 25the presidential election.

Atiku

Oyo is a PDP state but Governor Makinde and his camp are not supporting the presidential aspiration of the party’s candidate. He is with Governor Nyesom Wike and other G5 governors in their opposition to Atiku. Last week, when he flagged off his campaign, the governor refused to campaign for Atiku at the event in spite of opposition by some PDP chieftain to his action. Wike had at the event said, “Vote for Governor Seyi Makinde, vote for all the candidates on the platform of the party, but the other one, Seyi will tell you.”

Obviously, Makinde’s stance is a big minus for Atiku and the PDP. Save for the development, the party would have been able to boast of winning the state again for Atiku. But as the incumbent governor, analysts believe that the absence of his support is a big factor. “Even in the way the presidential campaign is being executed in our state, you will understand how the decision of the governor and his supporters is affecting the PDP as we move closer to the general election,” a party stalwart told The Nation.

But Atiku is not without support in the strategic Southwest state. Reliable party sources revealed that he appears to have most of the PDP leaders in the state on his side. Prominent chieftains, including a former Minister of State for Federal Capital Territory, Jumoke Akinjide and a former Minister of Mines and Steel Development, Wole Oyelese, have been campaigning relentlessly for him in Ibadan, the Oyo State capital.

Others who are openly and vigorously supporting the former vice president’s presidential ambition, under the auspices of National Mandate Group, Oyo State chapter, are former Oyo Deputy Governor, Hazeem Gbolarumi, and Director, Special Duty, PDP Presidential Campaign Council, Femi Babalola (Jogor), Alhaji Taye Adebisi, popularly known as Taye Currency, erstwhile chairman of the Federal Roads Maintenance Agency (FERMA), Jide Adeniji, Mr. Biodun Rauf, among others.

But the absence of Makinde and his close allies like his deputy, Adebayo Lawal, Speaker Oyo State House of Assembly, Adebo Ogundoyin, the PDP Deputy National Chairman (South), Taofeek Arapaja, Bisi Ilaka (Oyo Central Senatorial District canddiate), Joseph Tegbe (Oyo South Senatorial District candidate), Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Oyo State, Hon. Dayo Ogungbenro, in the presidential campaign activities of the ruling party in the state has left many party chieftains and members confused.

For the PDP presidential candidate, it is not likely that he will benefit from the incumbency factor as such. With allies and appointees of the state governor unable to openly identify with him and participate in his campaigns, the face-off between Atiku and the G5 governors has definitely taken a toll on the chances of the former Vice President in Oyo State. Unless a miracle happens and Makinde renounces his opposition to him, Atiku will be walking a very tight rope in his quest to win votes in the state on February 25.

As it is, the PDP candidate will be banking on the popularity of the party in Oyo. Personally, Atiku is well known across the state. His political network is also very strong in all the three senatorial district of the state. And with many of the founding fathers and leaders of the party in the state like Oyelese, Gbolarunmi, Olopoeniyan, Babalola and others still with him, the situation is not hopeless.

Downplaying the effect of the crisis within the party on Atiku’s ambition, Akinjide said the ex-VP was a pan-Nigerian who would lead the country out of her current socioeconomic and political challenges. “We will campaign for Atiku in Oyo on the basis of merit and on the basis of fidelity to our great party. There’s really no divide in the PDP. It is a fight for space. So, I don’t think the public should worry themselves because the day they makeup, they’d be on television smiling and back-slapping and calling each other brothers,” she said.

Tinubu

While Makinde is yet to heed Wike’ directive to announce who his supporters should vote for, there are insinuations that the governor’s people may be preparing to throw their weight behind the presidential aspiration of Tinubu, the APC candidate in what would be an intriguing political arrangement.

“It is not strange and should be expected. Makinde is a politician with a difference and on many occasions he has placed public interest over and above his personal interest. That is exactly what is happening now.

“His decision to join the G5 governors to fight for justice within the party is unusual for a governor seeking re-election. It is more convenient for him to concentrate on his second term and ignore the injustices within his party if he is to be selfish. But that is not his style. Again, he must in a way, beyond partisan politics, listen to the desires of the people of Oyo ahead of the 2023 presidential election and accommodate their interest in his politics as elected governor of all the people of the state,” an ally of the governor said.

Tongues started wagging when Adebayo Lawal, Deputy Governor of Oyo, recently said Makinde supports Afenifere leaders in their choice of presidential candidate for the 2023 elections. He made the comment at a meeting between the leaders and Tinubu in Akure, capital of Ondo State. Lawal, who represented Makinde at the meeting, said the Oyo governor has always been in support of the decisions taken by Afenifere. “Since he (Makinde) has become a governor, he hasn’t played with issues concerning Yorubaland,” Lawal said.

“There is no time Baba (Fasoranti) calls him that he doesn’t answer. Whatever they are doing, whether it’s under Afenifere or another group, governor Seyi Makinde has always been doing. Now, we are not of the same party, but we are connected by race. For this reason, the message he (Makinde) sent is that in Yorubaland, whatever you do, he is in support of it.” In spite of the uproar that greeted the remarks from within the PDP in Oyo, neither the state government, nor the governor ever denounced the statement.

Should Makinde and his people support Tinubu on or before February 25, they will further strengthen the APC candidate’s base in Oyo State. As we speak, he has numerous bigwigs across the state working for his aspiration. The APC as the biggest opposition party in the state boasts of a very wide network with structures in all the nooks and crannies. The party is fielding candidates in all the 33 state constituencies, fourteen federal constituencies and three senatorial districts of the state.

With all the candidates and their supporters working relentlessly for Tinubu, he is expected to do well across the state. For example, in Oyo zone, he enjoys the support of warhorses like Pa C.A Ajibade; Rt. Hon. Asimiyu Alarape, Hon. Akeem Adeyemi, Dr. Yunus Akintunde, Hon. Bimbo Kolade, Kazeem Kolawole Raji, Hon. Kazeem Tunde Isiaka, Hon. Seyi Adisa and Engr. Idris Adeoye. To analysts, it will not be difficult for APC to win the zone with this array of politicians.

Allies and loyalists of late former Governor Lam Adesina, are also working hard for the Tinubu project just as the entire political structures of former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala, are involved in his campaigns. The state chairman of the party, Hon. Ajiboye Omodewu, is leading members of Ajimobi Legacy Forum to support Tinubu. The APC presidential candidate is also enjoying the support of a faction of the Ladoja Political Group and the leadership of Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) in the state.

Prominent APC leaders including Teslim Folarin, the party’s gubernatorial candidate, Chief Niyi Akintola (SAN), Minister of Youth and Sports, Chief Sunday Dare, former state chairman, former Minister for Communications, Alhaji Adebayo Shittu, Senator Olufemi Lanlehin, Senator Soji Akanbi, Senator Fatai Buhari, representing Oyo North Senatorial District, Alhaji Abubakar Adejare Gbadamosi and Chief Akin Oke, are working hard for the presidential ambition of the APC candidate.

Others in the Tinubu camp across the state include Alhaji Bayonle Ibikunle, Chairman of the Nigeria Lotteries Regulatory Commission; Professor Adeolu Akande, Chairman of the Nigerian Communications Commission; Dr. Ismail Adewusi, former Post Master General of the Federation; Hon Zach Adedeji Adelabu, Executive Secretary of the Nigerian Sugar Development Council; Dr Azeez Adedutan, former Commissioner of Health, and Hon. Wale Murphy Olatunji, Chairman, National Centre for Technology Management (NACETEM).

Meanwhile, Folarin assured that the people of Oyo are solidly behind Tinubu’s presidential bid and would vote massively for APC in the 2023 general election. According to him, the 95 percent votes projected for Tinubu by the APC campaign council in Oyo is realisable. The senator said he had enlisted over 100,000 members to mobilise support for Tinubu and other candidates of the party across polling units in the state. Folarin also said the party in Oyo is leaving no stone unturned in its determination to secure a win for Tinubu.

Obi

The presidential candidate of the Labour Party is popular among some youths in the state, but observers say this may not translate into much votes for him as his presence remains largely on social media. He may record some votes from among the younger generations who are members or supporters of his Obidient Movement. Obi has been in Oyo twice to campaign. He was in the state last November for a rally organized by his supporters at Adamasingba stadium, Ibadan.

He returned to the city a month later for a visit to the Alarere palace of the Olubadan of Ibadanland, Oba Olalekan Balogun. He had in his company the Oyo State gubernatorial candidate, Taofiq Akinwale, Chief (Mrs.) Bola Doherty and Mogaji Gboyega Adejumo.

While the LP presidential candidate is optimistic that he will do well in the election in Oyo, it remains to be seen how he will pull this off without much political presence or support base in the Southwest state barely a month to the presidential election.

Kwankwaso

The NNPP) candidate Kwankwaso is barely felt in the state. Apart from his April 2022 visit to the Olubadan of Ibadanland, Oba Lekan Balogun to discuss his presidential ambition, he is yet to campaign in the state. No major political group or camp is known to be supporting him in the state and his party does not have visible structures in most part of the state.

The Accord Party factor

Should it also turn out to be true that Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Accord Party gubernatorial candidate in Oyo State, and his allies are working for the presidential aspiration of the APC candidate as being rumoured across the state, then Tinubu’s victory on February 25 will become more assured.

Fondly called Penkelemes, Adelabu joined the Accord after he narrowly lost the governorship ticket of APC to Folarin. But sources within his camp said he is still very committed to the Tinubu presidential project.

Some of the prominent politicians who are with Adelabu in his quest for the governorship seat of the state include Senator Ayo Adeseun, Hon. Ademola Ojo, Alhaji Bashiru Akanbi, Alhaji Isiaka Alimi, Dr. Olusola Ayandele, Chief Kunle Sanda, Prince Ayodeji Abass-Alesinloye, Mr. Bimbo Adepoju, Hon. Samuel Egunjobi, Adegboyega Adegoke, Professor Ayanfemi Ayandele, Fatai Adesina, among others. These frontline politicians are believed to be working for Tinubu’s victory.

Adeseun, while reeling out his plans for the 2023 general elections, had given indications about how Accord Party members across the state may vote when he pledged to support Tinubu for president and Adelabu for the governorship.

“For the 2023 general elections, I will be supporting Asiwaju Bola Tinubu of the APC for two reasons. One is the fact that I am a Yoruba man and I think this time, a Yoruba man ought to be given a shot at it because of his contribution to get President Buhari’s administration into place,” he said.

“I also believe Tinubu has a record of picking those who are gifted and capable and he has shown that over and over again. He was Governor of Lagos State for eight years and he turned the state around to the extent that he ran Lagos state without Federal subvention. That tells you that the man is a genius, He also brought out Fasola and imagine what Fasola did in Lagos. One of the hallmarks of a good leader is the ability to identify quality people and put them into appropriate positions. At the state level, I am absolutely convinced that there are some people whom are not worthy of being allowed to sit at the helms of affairs in our state.”

VERDICT: TINUBU FAVOURED TO WIN

EKITI STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 987,647

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 120,331; PDP: 176,466

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 219,231; PDP: 154,032

Likely voting patterns in the Ekiti are gradually unfolding. Out of the 16 parties that fielded candidates for the presidential election, only the ruling APC and the PDP are visibly on ground.

The poll will be a straight fight between APC and PDP, going by the political dynamics, existing realities and happenings in the state. The duo have dominated the political space in the last three months and have the highest number of supporters when compared to the Labour Party, NNPP, Social Democratic Party (SDP) and 11 others whose offices are under lock and key.

Observers are predicting that the outcome of the 2023 election may not be different from the results of the June 18, 2022 governorship election in which the APC candidate, Biodun Oyebanji, won with over 100,000 votes margin.

One thing that will likely work in favour of Tinubu over his main challenger Atiku is the fact that the ex- Lagos governor is from the Southwest. Many voters from the zone see his ambition as their project. Residents, both the Muslim and Christians, hold him in high esteem and are irrevocably committed to his victory.

But, Atiku is said to be popular in Ekiti South due to the aggressive mobilisation drive of Senator Biodun Olujimi who is seeking return to the Senate. So, the ex-Vice President is expected to get votes in the district. But with Tinubu’s cult-like following in the state, PDP may face a herculean task in its attempt to split the votes.

The former Lagos governor will definitely enjoy the support of the state government. The influence of Oyebanji and APC support base could provide a huge advantage for the party’s candidate.

Among politicians, who Tinubu will bank on to deliver the state include Minister of Minister of Trade, and Investment, Niyi Adebayo, ex- governor Kayode Fayemi, Prince Dayo Adeyeye, Senator Opeyemi Bamidele, Barr. Omowumi Ogunlola, Dr Segun Agbalajobi, Senator Tony Adeniyi, former speaker, Adewale Omirin among others. Tinubu’s son in-law, Oyetunde Ojo, is from the state and this could help APC.

However, Atiku could make an inroad through the influence of the PDP leaders in the state, including Olujimi, former Deputy Governors,  Prof. Kolapo Eleka, Dr. Sikiru Lawal,  Senator Duro Faseyi, former acting governor, Tunji Odeyemi, former PDP National Treasurer, Wale Aribisala, Southwest PDP Publicity Secretary, Sanya Atofarati, amongst others.

Interestingly, pundits are of the view that the results of the election will be largely decided by the acceptance level of the Oyebanji-led administration by the people. The governor who is barely three months on the plum seats has wormed himself to the people’s heart following the implementation of masses-centric policies and programnes.

The seemingly intractable crisis in the Ekiti chapter of the opposition PDP has affected its fortunes. And APC is said to be waiting at the flanks to advantage of the internal wrangling.

Since the party lost power in 2018, the opposition has not known peace for a day with the ex-governor Ayodele Fayose and Senator Olujimi at daggers’ drawn.

The internal strife was compounded by the ill-fated 2022 governorship primaries of the party, when notable politicians led by Segun Oni angrily left the party with thousands of his followers to the SDP to contest the election, where he emerged first runner up.

Unarguably, PDP is not in good shape to win the state for Atiku as Fayose is a staunch member of Integrity Group led by the River State Governor Wike. The group are opposed to Atiku’s candidacy.

Since his candidate, Bisi Kolawole lost in the last governorship election, where he came distant third, Fayose has not visited Ekiti to campaign for Atiku, unlike, the build up to the last governorship election, when he aggressively rallied support for PDP.

Although the two factions claim to be working for Atiku, it was gathered that the candidates for the state and National Assembly elections who got the tickets through Fayose’s helps were personally working for themselves.

The picture looks even bleaker with the announcement on Friday by the PDP national leadership that it had suspended several members of its Ekiti chapter associated with Fayose for anti-party activities. It also dissolved the state executive committee.

Some of the chieftains who got suspended by the NWC are Emiola Adenike Jennifer, House of Representatives candidate in Ekiti South II, Ajayi Babatunde Samuel, House of Representatives candidate in Ekiti North II, Olayinka James Olalere, House of Representatives candidate in Ekiti Central, Akerele Oluyinka, House of Representatives candidate in Ekiti North I and House of Representatives candidate in Ekiti Central 1, Fayose Oluwajomiloju John, who incidentally is the son of the former governor.

The massive defection of SDP members who left the party after the primary that produced PDP governorship candidate Kolawole in 2022 poll is a disadvantage to Atiku.

But, aggrieved APC members under the aegis of Southwest Agenda for Asiwaju who supported Oni governorship bids had retraced their steps and back to the APC. This were made possible as result of the humble and unifying disposition of Oyebanji in making the party more united for a straightforward victory for Tinubu at the polls.

Watchers of politics in the state opine that Tinubu is likely to win Ekiti based on enumerated factors. But the influence of the PDP cannot be underestimated.

VERDICT: TINUBU, APC TO WIN

ONDO STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,991,344

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 299,889; PDP: 251,368

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 241,769; PDP: 275,901

All the major candidates have held rallies in Ondo and are waiting on their supporters at the grassroots across the state to further spread their message as well as mobilise voters. They are relying on the strength of their various parties to secure victory polls. How strong are each of the leading parties in the state?

PDP

It is yet to put its house in order ahead of the polls even though the party believed it would repeat its 2019 feat when it defeated the ruling APC in the state in the presidential election. At its recent presidential rally, former Governor Olusegun Mimiko and some party leaders loyal to the G-5 governors and the Integrity Group were absent.

Mimiko and his supporters have been silent on PDP campaign activities in the state. Some leaders are of the opinion that, perhaps, they are waiting on Wike’s directive on whose presidential candidate to support.

Some candidates of the PDP have also expressed their grievances over the lack of funding for campaign activities. They have decided to carry on with their campaign without working for their presidential candidate. Those who spoke on condition of anonymity said the focus of some leaders of the Ondo PDP was the 2024 governorship election and not about next month’s general elections.

Last week, some members of the State Working Committee demanded the chairman, Hon Fatai Adams, stepped down for the party to emerge victorious at the polls. The aggrieved members presented their demand at a meeting with the leadership of the party.

A source at the meeting said they accused Adams of incompetence, high handedness, lack of transparency, anti-party activities and polarisation of the party across the 18 local governments of the state.

According to the source, “Chairman of the PDP in the state is being used to carry out selfish interest of some individuals within the party. As far as this man is the chairman, we would not win any election in Ondo in 2023.

“Those who have openly tabled their grievances and challenged the leadership style of Adams and Jegede have been shut out of the party.

“The ongoing crisis in the party was caused by inordinate ambition of a former governorship candidate to become the candidate of the party again in 2024 governorship election in the state.

“They are scheming for 2024 governorship election instead of working towards securing a win for the 2023 election and deliver the state for PDP and Atiku. They are talking of 2024 governorship elections and that is the main reasons for the division within the party”.

Candidate of the PDP for Ondo Central Senatorial district, Ifedayo Adedipe, said he was not worried about happenings in the party.

According to him: “Every politics is local. In Ondo Central Senatorial District, we have no division. What they are doing at the national level, we will sort out. I can tell you that they will sort it out. How many of the contestants with Asiwaju are going about campaigning with him? But that does not mean there is division or there is no division. They will sort this things out. Don’t let that one worry us, let what we will do locally worry us. The Central that I seek to represent, we don’t have division.”

State Publicity Secretary of the party, Kennedy Peretei, said the party was ready to win the polls on February 25. He said all issues within the party have been resolved. “It is an internal issue and it has been resolved. It is a normal thing to have issues within the party.

“They can’t be talking about the removal of the party’s chairman some few days to elections, no matter the gravity of the allegations. The timing is wrong

“There was no talk about the Chairman resigning or being suspended or removed. This is not a good time for such as the state look forward to deliver the state for Atiku and other candidates of the party. We hope they will see reason and work for the success of the party in the next election”.

APC

Just as in the 2020 governorship election, the Ondo APC is going into next month general elections a united family. All stakeholders are on the same page on winning the polls. It is only in APC that several support groups have sprung up working for the victory of Tinubu.

The party has released dates for the flag-off of its senatorial rallies across the state. Governor Oluwarotimi Akeredolu whose ill-health raised fears among party faithful has assured that he would lead the campaign activities. The leadership has been able to pacify aggrieved aspirants to withdraw cases in courts over the outcome of the primary.

What has caused worry and panic among some members of the party is the refusal of some leaders and support groups to canvass votes for other candidates of the party except for Tinubu. Many of the support groups have been silent on candidates of the party across the state.

Speaking on why he will not support APC candidates from his senatorial district, a former lawmaker who asked his name not to be printed said the primary was skewed in their favour. The former lawmaker said his target was for Tinubu to win the presidency.

State chairman of the party, Ade Adetimehin, who spoke at a rally of the Asiwaju Tinubu/Shettima Coalition for Good Governance (ATSCGG) appealed to support groups to work in unison for the party’s victory at the polls.

“APC is united in Ondo State. Since the present republic, Ondo has never had it so good like this. If you look at AD era, 80 percent of them are in APC. If you look at PDP era, 80 percent of them are in APC. In Labour Party era, 80 percent are in APC. All we need to do is to work together and tolerate one another. If we can do that, we are good to go.

“As support groups need to do is to go to other parties to decimate, woo and break them into their sizes and bring them to APC. Mobilise people into the party, not members of the party.

“In terms of performance, no government has ever performed like the APC-led government in Ondo State. Let them challenge me in a debate if it is false.”

Labour Party

The chances of LP in winning the presidential election in Ondo State are very slim. This is because it has only one candiate for both national and state assembly elections. At the party’s rally held at the Akure Town Hall, Obi did not canvass vote for the party’s candidate for Ondo North senatorial district.

A member of the party state executive said they were only concerned about the winning the presidential election. There are also no support groups working for LP in Ondo State and the party has not held any rally at the ward or units in any part of the state.

VERDICT: TINUBU, APC TO WIN

LAGOS STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 7,060,195

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 792,460; PDP: 632,327

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 580,825; PDP: 448,015

Four presidential candidates are competing for votes in Lagos State in next month’s election. Their campaign billboards, flyers and posters adorn and litter the public spaces, including highways, markets, motor parks, and buildings.

Television and radio adverts calling attention to an impending titanic contest have increased recently. The social media is also awash with all sorts of portrayals that have raised public consciousness.

However, the influence of the four main political parties – APC, PDP, LP and NNPP – on the electorate are in varying degrees for obvious reasons.

Read Also: 2023: I’ll be just, equitable and fair as governor – Omo-Agege

Lagos is the base of the frontline contender, Asiwaju Tinubu, National Leader and standard bearer of the ruling APC. He was governor of the Centre of Excellence between 1999 and 2003 and the towering opposition arrowhead between 2003 and 2015, whose activities in Lagos and beyond, along with his compatriots in like-minded opposition parties, culminated into the birth of the APC.

Emphasising the importance of the presidential election to Lagosians, the Director-General of Lagos State APC Campaign Committee, Senator Ganiyu Solomon, said there is enthusiasm among residents because it is the first time a politician of note, indeed a party leader, from Lagos will be vying for president since 1999.

Solomon, who spoke during the inauguration of the campaign committee at the party office in Ikeja, said more voters are expected to troop out during the poll than before because of the Tinubu factor.

The former governor is largely perceived as the architect of modern Lagos. Apart from raising a generation of leaders who have become fanatical loyalists, Tinubu has also sealed a bond with stakeholders, including the traditional institution, business class, Christian and Muslim communities, youths and women groups.

Solomon, who observed that the poll is a payback time for the APC candidate, added: “We want more votes than before. We are approaching the campaign differently. We want a different result. We have to do things differently.”

However, the main opposition party, the PDP on which platform former Vice President Atiku is running, is also visible in Lagos. Although it has been locked in supremacy battle with the progressive bloc which has held forte in the state, PDP, in the last 23 years, has failed to dislodge the Alliance for Democracy (AD), Action Congress (AC), Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and APC from power.

In 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, and 2019 ģovernorship polls, PDP made frantic attempts, but without success.

The third party, the Labour Party (LP), which former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi has borrowed as a platform, has no footing in Lagos, within the context of structure, party membership, machinery and public sympathy.

But, it is evident, judging by their social media activities, that many Lagos residents of Southeast and South-South origins, are gravitating towards Obi, and not necessarily LP, in some local councils where they are likely to deploy their numerical strength on poll day.

Although the NNPP is not popular in Lagos, its candidate Kwankwaso, a former governor of Kano State, is a well-known politician in the country. He has supporters in some market areas (Sabo) where few Northerners, who are his main target, ply their legitimate trade.

Diversity and voting strength

Generally, eyes are on Lagos, a metropolitan and heterogeneous state reputed for its long standing inclination towards progressive politics, for many reasons. It was the hotbed of nationalist agitations for freedom during the colonial days. It has retained that reputation as home to all Nigerians. Also, in the first, second and fourth republics, only progressive parties have dominated the politics of the state.

The state is among the four big states, which analysts believe, are deciding factors, the three others being Kano, Kaduna and Rivers.

Lagos, former federal capital of Nigeria and economic nerve centre of the country, is a sophisticated state made up of diverse, politically conscious and well informed electorate who can analyse and formed more or less independent opinions.

It is also, to a large extend, the headquarters of the media, which have often shaped its political opinions, judgement and expectations about the political system.

Lagos appears to be a symbol of integration and unity in diversity, judging by its composition as a blend of different social formations. In this electioneering, majority of Lagosians anticipate power shift from the North to the South, in the spirit of time-tested zoning or conventional rotational principle

The exact population of Lagos is unknown. The last census held in 2006 was disputed. But, in July last year, Lagos State Resident Electoral Commissioner Segun Agbaje said “the total number of registered voters in Lagos State before the commencement of the ongoing CVR is 6,570,291, and if we add the new registrants, we have about seven million registered voters.”

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Chairman, Prof. Mahmod Yakubu, while reviewing the voter’s registration in October last year, said no fewer than 7,075, 192 prospective voters had registered in Lagos.

It was an improvement on the 6.5 million recorded in 2019 and 5.8 million recorded in 2015. Agbaje attributed the 2022 figures to mobilisation by political parties and candidates, and sensitisation by INEC.

Also, the commission disclosed that in terms of demography, more youths registered to vote this year than previous election periods.

However, there is a difference between voter’s registration and voter card collection. In a breath, the electoral agency has been inundated with complaints by prospective voters about the non-availability of the voters’ cards in some councils. In another dimension, INEC officials have also raised the alarm over the reluctance of registered voters to turn up for voter card collection in some councils.

Tinubu’s factor in Southwest and beyond

There is no state or ethnic group that is not represented in Lagos, which has consistently extended accommodation to all, irrespective of race and religion. Apart from indigenous Lagosians, migrant residents have roles to play during the election. Although many Northerners, Southeasterners and South-South people are many in Lagos, they are dwarfed by the number of migrant Yoruba from six Southwest states of Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, and Ekiti, who are emotionally attached to Lagos as a core Yoruba territory, and who may be willing and prepared to swing the pendulum of victory towards Tinubu’s direction in the spirit of regional solidarity.

However, an APC chieftain, Dele Osinnowo, Chairman of Agboyi-Ketu Council, said these prospective voters, particularly the youths, required appropriate political education, sensitisation and enlightenment to make informed decisions.

“We should vote like never before because of Asiwaju,” he said, adding: “It is not just about winning. We must win massively.  We must produce a minimum of four million votes for Asiwaju in Lagos.”

Osinowo, who spoke at the inauguration of Lagos East APC Campaign Committee at Kosofe, Lagos, stressed: “Asiwaju was governor between 1999 and 2007. Some youths do not know what Asiwaju had done for the party, democracy, Lagos and Nigeria. We should enlighten them that Asiwaju is the person who can give a better Nigeria.”

Zoning

Lagos, like other Southwest states, subscribe to zoning or rotation of the Presidency. It is a key factor in national unity, which has also engendered a sense of participation and fostered a feeling of belonging.

After the Asaba meeting of Southern Governors, the next meeting, which was a follow up, was held in Lagos State. During the meeting, the governors, irrespective of the political leanings, called for zoning. Their agitation reflected the mood in the three Southern geo-political regions of Southwest, Southeast and South-South. The perceived notion of zoning is most likely to shape voting by these Southwest, Southeast and South-South residents in Lagos. The poll outcome may be their utter disapproval or violation of the zoning principle by the PDP.

Prominent Lagos PDP leaders, including Chief Olabode George, Senator Kofo Akerele-Bucknor, Mrs. Onikepo Oshodi, and Dr. Akitoye, are up in arms against Atiku and PDP National Chairman Senator Iyiocha Ayu for the neglect of zoning and lopsided distribution of core party and elective offices, to the detriment of the Southwest.

Justifying the stand of G-5 Governors, George said:”The Director-General of the campaign is from Sokoto, Northwest. The national chairman is from Northcentral.  The presidential candidate is from Adamawa, Northeast.

“The acting chairman of BoT is from Southeast. The vice presidential candidate is from Southsouth. There is nothing for the Southwest. And you are fooling us. Atiku canot do restructuring in his party. He is promising restructuring for Nigeria. He is disrespecting Yoruba. We are standing by the truth. I won’t vote for him and I will not stop talking.”

George said certain forces in the PDP are denying Yoruba its sense of belonging, adding that their promises at campaigns are illusory.

Lamenting that Southwest has not filled the slot of national chairman in PDP since 1998, he said:”The first chairman, Chief Solomon Lar, came from Northcentral. Chief Barnabas Gemade is from Benue, Northcentral. Chief Audu Ogbeh is Benue, Northcentral. Dr. Ahmadu Ali is from Northcentral. Baraje is from Northcentral. Ayu is from Benue, Northcentral.

He added: “Southwest has not served as chairman before. They have disregard, disrespect and dishonour for Southwest. We will not accept it. The Southwest is cut off from decision making organs of the party. It is sad. We cannot be slaves.”

Impact

Of all the four candidates, Tinubu’s career, struggles, battles and achievements in the private sector and government have significantly impacted positively on Lagos.

While Obi, Kwankwaso and Atiku cannot point to any of their direct involvement in the state that had impacted on the wellbeing of the people, Tinubu has many feats to point to as former governor and party leader.

Since the Third Republic, when he won the highest number of votes in the country to become Lagos West senator, Tinubu has been a household name in Lagos. Apart from doing the state proud as a federal legislator, he was a notable figure in the hectic agitation for the revalidation of the annulled June 12, 1993 presidential election anchored by the Afenifere/National Democratic Coalition (NADECO).

Since 1999 when he became governor, Tinubu has never left Lagos. Across the sectors-education, health, transportation, housing, judicial reforms, infrastructural development, internally generated revenue, 24-year development plan, independent power project, security trust fund, and promotion of peaceful co-existence in Lagos-he made his mark.

The APC candidate is acknowledged at home as an ideologue; an embodiment of political valour, courage, determination and principle; a tolerant, accommodating leader with a forgiving spirit, a hunter for talents, team player, highly skilled in statecraft and a man of the masses.

Tinubu has presided over a formidable structure, which also produced his three successors-Babatunde Fashola (SAN), now Minister of Works and Housing, Akinwunmi Ambode and Babajide Sanwo-Olu, who is seeking a second term. Under the trio, the progressive beat had continued.

As Lagos APC Chairman Pastor Cornelius Ojelabi submitted during the flag off of the campaigns, Tinubu, if elected, will replicate at the federal level his feats as governor adding: “He has a grasp of the problems and solutions. So far, his manifesto is incomparable. As a bridge builder, he will foster unity and cohesion, assemble a cabinet of talents, tackle insecurity and mobilise to resolve economic challenges.”

APC

Without dispute, APC is the largest and most formidable party in the Centre of Excellence. It has its tentacles in the nooks ad crannies of the state; across the five traditional divisions of Lagos, Ikeja, Badagry, Epe and Ikorodu; the three senatorial districts of Lagos Central, Lagos East and Lagos West; the pre-existing 20 local governments and 37 Local Council Development Areas (LCDAs). 

Lagos APC is rated as the most vibrant chapter in the country.

Historically, it is an offshoot of solid platforms-the defunct ACN, AC and AD-which won six governorship elections and midwifed the governments of Lagos in 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2019, to the consternation of its main rival, PDP.

Lagos APC is strengthened by its exploits, antecedents and potentials. After producing three governors, it has become entrenched in the state. But, its sustaining power is not only its command of legitimate authority. It is, more importantly, the fulfilment of its campaign promises, consistent people-oriented policies and programmes, and defense of Lagos interests.

As government in power for 24 years, Lagos APC has produced many functionaries who have had political career progression from grassroots to appointees at state and federal levels.

Today, all the members of the State Executive Council, led by Sanwo-Olu, belong to the ruling party. The commissioners, special advisers and assistants, heads of boards and parastatals, reflect the representativeness and inclusive governance in the state. Similarly, all the 40 members of the House of Assembly, led by Speaker Mudashiru Obasa, are APC members. Twenty two of the 24 House of Representatives members belong to APC.

Also, all the 57 council chairmen, vice chairmen, councillors, supervisors and other aides are APC members. These grassroots structures have linkages with the various community development associations, which also serve as channels for political mobilisation.

Currently, Lagos APC can boast of resourceful, energetic, vibrant, young council chairmen, including Kayode Ajala (Mushin), Sesan Daini (Igbogbo-Bayeku), Osinowo (Agboyi-Ketu), and Moyo Ogunlewe, who are working in concert with party Youth Leader Dr. Muritala Seriki, Director of Organisation Ayodele Adewale and Seyi Tinubu to rally the support of the youths for Tinubu in Lagos.

The three senators – Oluremi Tinubu (Central), Solomon Adeola (West) and Tokunbo Abiru (East) are APC stalwarts. They have also mounted aggressive campaigns across the three districts.

Under the leadership of women leader Jumoke Okoya-Thomas, ably assisted by the three senatorial women leaders, the Lagos APC Women wing has intensified its campaigns by holding rallies in strategic locations in the metropolis, beginning from its inaugural effort that shook the Lagos Island in October.

Lagos APC gives room for gerontocratic monitoring as exemplified by the activities of the Governance Advisory Council (GAC), made up of old political warhorses and experienced politicians of Awolowo era, who are giving direction and serving as platform for grievance ventilation, conflict management and enforcement of party supremacy and discipline. The apex leadership body is representative of the divisions, districts, constituencies and local governments. All former Governors and their deputies are members.

Old GAC members include Prince Tajudeen Olusi (Lagos Island), Rabiu Oluwa (Ajeromi Ifelodun), Murphy Adetoro (Eti-Osa), Akanni Seriki (Epe), Henry Ajomale(Oshodi-Isolo), Abiodun Ogunleye, Kaoli Olusanya  and Olorunfunmi Basorun (Ikorodu), Busura Alebiosu (Kosofe), and James Odunmbaku (Ikeja). Recently, the body was expanded to include Ganiyu Solomon (Mushin), Gbajabiamila (Surulere) Musilu Obanikoro (Lagos Island), and Olorunnimbe Mamora (Kosofe).

Reflecting the state’s diversity, Lagos APC accommodates Arewa, Southeast and South-South members, many of who have served as councillors, legislators, special advisers, commissioners and board members.

Unlike before, there is a changing face of campaign in Lagos. The peculiar campaign on one spot has given way to a sectoral approach and multi-layers rallies, encompassing Town Hall meetings, street walks, and door-to-door sensitisation. They are simultaneously and spontaneously coordinated by local leaders and committed party members in the localities who understand the geography and sociology of the environment, the right community members to contact and the language of rural areas. These party members also collate information and complaints for feedback to the party leadership.

Also, the ruling party has the advantage of fielding popular and competent governorship and parliamentary candidates, who secured tickets through free, fair and democratic processes across the state. Post-primary crises were promptly resolved by the governor and party leaders. As these candidates campaign for themselves, they also campaign for Tinubu for president.

The perception of the governor as a performer is expected to shape the poll outcome. In the last three and half years, Sanwo-Olu has worked very hard to justify the mandate conferred on him in 2019. Many believe that he has implemented his THEMES agenda with utmost fidelity. There is nowhere supporters had gathered for a rally and Sanwo-Olu is unable to point to developmental projects embarked by his government within the neighbourhood. More impactful therefore, are the grassroots rallies-an inclusive mobilisation effort-that is captivating to residents who are motivated by the achievements of the administration they can identify and feel.

Lagos has become a huge construction site under the governor, who is daily building on the feats of his three predecessors. He has built new primary and secondary schools in some areas, upgraded the polytechnic and colleges into universities, slashed tuition fees, upgraded education infrastructure and facilities at the General Hospitals, constructed many roads, intensified work on Opebi/Ojota interchange, developed the water transport, reduced housing deficits, and commenced preliminary works on the proposed

Fourth Mainland Bridge. Also, there is unity in government; between governor and his deputy, Dr. Obafemi Hamzat, between executive and legislature, and between government and the party leadership.

Most of the candidates are not remote from the grassroots. Apart from Abiru, who is running for Senate in the East, former Deputy Governor Idiat Adebule and House of Assembly Deputy Speaker Wasiu Eshinlokun-Sanni are running in the West and East.

Prominent House of Representatives candidates include House of Representatives Speaker Femi Gbajabiamila (Somolu), Jimi Benson (Ikorodu), James Faleke (Ikeja), Kafilat Agbara (Kosofe), former Commissioner Wale Ahmed (Agege), Lanre Ogunyemi (Ojo), and Babajide Obanikoro (Eti-Osa).

In terms of grassroots support, popularity, visibility, numerical strength, clout of candidates and public sympathy, goodwill and solidarity, Lagos APC will have an edge to the presidential poll in Lagos.

PDP

Despite its past electoral misfortunes, Lagos PDP has not fizzled out. It has remained visible, always firing salvos at the ruling party intermittently, and mustering efforts to pose a challenge at periodic elections.

It is a crisis-ridden chapter that is retarded by weak structures. Prominent progressive politicians who defected to the opposition party have retraced their steps to APC. They complained about lack of virile leadership, cohesion and focus.

Although PDP had fielded governorship candidates for previous polls, they failed to withstand the electoral arsenal of the ruling party. Its candidates – Dapo Sarunmi (1999), Funso Williams (2003), Obanikoro (2007), Ade Dosunmu (2011), Jimi Agbaje ( 2015 and 2019), although well known, were rejected by voters.

Lagos PDP has become more weakened because it is running against the tide at a time a popular Lagosian is contesting for president on the platform of APC.

Never has Lagos PDP been in disarray. Its governorship candidate, Jide Adediran, is being deserted by party elders, who complained that he reneged on the promise to pick their anointed candidate for running mate, Vivour. These party elders have shunned the governorship campaigns.

Also recently, hundreds of those who claimed to be members of the ‘Lagos for Lagos,’ Adediran’s group, defected to the APC.

A young and successful businessman, Adediran is perceived as an inexperienced candidate running on PDP platform with another inexperienced deputy candidate, Funke Akindele, a popular actress.

A great damage has been done to the PDP’s prospect by the balkanisation of its support base in Lagos by Labour Party (LP), which is targeting its strongholds in Oshodi-Isolo, Ajeromi Ifelodun, Ojo, Amuwo-Odofin, and parts of Surulere, where Southeast indigenes, parts of Eti-Osa. A category of ‘social media youths’ are now torn between Obi and Tinubu. Also, South-South elements appear to be turning their back at PDP for similar ethnic reason.

It is becoming increasingly hard for Lagos PDP to appeal to Lagosians to vote for its presidential candidate at a time the state, which is Tinubu’s base, is energised and majority of people are rooting for the Asiwaju of Lagos.

The awful picture of party depreciation contrasts sharply with past hopes. While the divided Southeast and  South-South elements, in conjuction with the Oodua Progressives Congress (OPC) and a faction of Afenifere, pan-Yoruba socio-political group, led by Chief Ayo Adebanjo, teamed up to mobilise for PDP presidential candidates -former President Goodluck and Atiku -in 2015 and 2019, they are not looking at the direction of Atiku in 2023.

Despite the rainbow coalition, Buhari of APC still won in Lagos during the two polls.

In 2015, 5.8 million people registered in Lagos. In 2019, the number of registered voters rose to 6.5 million. In that 2019 poll, total vote cast was 1,156,598. Total number of accredited voters was 1,196,490. Valid votes were 1,089,567 while 67,023 votes were rejected.

Buhari won with a margin of 132,810 votes. According to the poll results, he scored 580,825 votes, winning 15 of 20 councils. Atiku got 448,015 votes, winning five councils, including Ojo and Eti-Osa.

Less than two months to the poll, many PDP candidates are not visible. Unlike the APC which is campaigning across the state, PDP’s campaign is basically restricted to rallies driven by the governorship candidate. Although Atiku came to Lagos for campaign, his old allies who are co-founding fathers of the party shunned the rally in protest over unresolved crisis in the party.

LP

LP is a borrowed platform adopted by Obi, whose understanding of the philosophy underlining its formation is limited. Those who adopted it for contest in the past later abandoned the platform after achieving their aims. In the Fourth Republic, LP will go down in history as a ‘used and dumped party assailed by stunted growth.

The leaders of Lagos LP are not in reckoning. Although a prominent APC member, Goke Salvador, was said to have defected to the chapter, nothing has been heard about him since he failed to secure the governorship ticket.

Lagos LP does not have any council chairman, state and federal lawmaker. The presence of the party at most wards and local governments is nil.

As an emergency platform, Lagos LP only focuses on the presidential poll, scheming to rake votes from migrant settlers from Southeast and South-South, who may have ended their allegiance to the PDP.

The party lacks candidates for many federal and state legislative positions because of the absence of structure.

However, the party is visible due to the activities of fanatical supporters, Obidients, who have also invaded the social media. Their campaigns in Lagos are not properly coordinated. The youths rooting for 62-year-old Obi do not belong to any ward or local government chapter, and only a few of them can properly articulate why they prefer him to other candidates beyond the age factor.

It is possible that on poll day, LP may not have adequate number of agents at the polling booths across the state.

But, the party is targeting votes for Obi in former PDP strongholds-Amuwo-Odofin, Ojo, Ajeromi Ifelodun, and some parts of Isolo, and Eti-Osa.

VERDICT: TINUBU, APC TO WIN

ENUGU STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,112,793

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 14,157; PDP: 553,003

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 54,423; PDP: 355,553

The three leading presidential candidates are Obi of LP, Tinubu of APC and Atiku PDP.

Enugu’s votes in the past five election circles have been majorly dedicated to PDP, which has enjoyed unrivalled acceptability among the populace. Before now, the presidential contest had always been between two leading political parties.

However, with the emergence of Obi creating a third option, the tide is changing with the PDP now scrambling to retain its usual share of the votes from the state.

Though,  there are about 1.6 million voters with PVCs in the state, voter turnout in the previous elections was below 50 per cent, except for the 2011 presidential election, when the state gave former President Goodluck Jonathan nearly 99 percent votes.

However, with the confidence the people of the state now have reposed in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), it is believed that voter turnout will improve considerably in the forthcoming election.

Atiku Abubakar

The former Vice President is believed to be a household name among the electorate in Enugu State. However, his albatross is that the people of the state and in deed, the Southeast, who had voted massively for him in the last election, are of the belief that he does not believe in equity, justice and fair play. This, they said, is so because when it was the time for the Southeast to produce the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku and PDP scuttled it.

For this reason, he lacks foot soldiers who would work and ensure his acceptance by the electorate who are very much familiar with his name.

It was observed that those who are working with the former vice president, are doing so secretly because of the seemingly dangerous backlash his open campaign would have on the generality of the PDP candidates in other positions.

According to an inside source in PDP, there is the belief that Atiku is being used to perpetuate the North in power after Buhari leaves office against the rotational North and South convention.

Again, his battle with the G-5 governors, including the governor of Enugu State, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, does not help matters.

Our correspondent observed that since the beginning of campaigns last year, no member of the PDP has ever mentioned his name in their numerous campaigns across the state. Worse still, one of the party’s senatorial candidates and former governor, Senator Chimaraoke Nnamani, rather than campaigning for Atiku, has been going about campaigning for the APC presidential candidate, Asiwaju Tinubu.

He was suspended two days ago by the PDP national leadership for his troubles.

“So, as it stands, the only way Atiku can get votes from Enugu State would be through a bandwagon appeal. You know Enugu is synonymous with PDP and by that way, those who will be voting for PDP candidates in other elections may equally vote for him. And that would be by mistake”, a chieftain of the PDP, who prefered anonymity, told The Nation.

Tinubu

Like Atiku, Tinubu is a household name among voters. He is expected to get between 25 to 30 percent of the votes in the Coal City State.  The reason for this is because of his longtime relationship with the power brokers in the state starting from Gbazuagu Nweke Gbazuagu. All the governors that governed Enugu since 1999, are close allies of the Asiwaju’s and are currently rooting for him to be the next president. The current governor Ugwuanyi, it has been learned, equally enjoys a robust personal relationship that has spanned over the years with him.

Apart from that, the senatorial candidate of the PDP for Enugu East and former governor of the state, Nnamani, has never hidden his position on Tinubu as the presidential candidate whom he and his households will vote for on February 25. Some of his friends, including the son of the former governor of the state, Joseph Onoh, younger brother to Lady Bianca Ojukwu as well as the Speaker of the State House of Assembly.

Also, with APC parading such leaders as the former governor, Mr. Sullivan Chime; former Senate President, Senator Ken Nnamani, former chairman of the party, Dr. Ben Nwoye and other as Tinubu’s independent campaigners, in addition with a rejuvenated APC in the state led by Chief Ugochukwu Agballah, analysts believe that Tinubu is likely to get the required 25 percent votes in the election because of the Labour Party candidate Obi.

One of the Tinubu/Shettima campaigners and political pressure group, Like Minds Initiative (LMI), at the Tinubu’s presidential campaign rally in Enugu, said it was very possible that APC would score more than 30 percent votes because its membership base alone in Enugu State is 16,711 members with PVCs.

The coordinator of the LMI in Enugu State, Hon. Ezeh Tochukwu Vincent, who spoke with newsmen at the Tinubu’s presidential rally in Enugu, said the Tinubu/Shettima ticket was the right choice for the zone and that Tinubu’s victory will greatly benefit the Southeast and its people.

He said members of the group was continuing with a door-to-door mobilisation of voters in the state to deepen the Tinubu and APC messages in the communities across the state.

Obi

Obi is a well-known name among the entire citizens of the state, because he served as the governor of the neighbouring Anambra State for two terms and was also the vice presidential candidate to Atiku in 2019 election.

He now has cult followership that cuts across the 17 local government areas of the state. Though, he is not being supported by some of the political class in the state, however, no politician dares campaign against him for fear of hostile reaction. In fact, the fear of the LP presidential candidate is the beginning of wisdom in the state.

With Obi, the presidential election in Enugu is likely to be in mould of that of 2011 where they gave their all to the then President Jonathan. Reasons are that one, they believe this is their turn and Obi is the best they can support.

Two, they are angry with the PDP for denying them the ticket after decades of consistent loyalty to the party.

Three, they are even angrier with the APC for years of alleged marginalisation.

Obi is therefore expected to win comfortably in Enugu while Tinubu will come second.

VERDICT: ADVANTAGE OBI

IMO STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,419,922

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 133,253; PDP: 559,185

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 140,463; PDP: 334,923

The three major political parties – APC, PDP and LP have adopted grassroots mobilisation for their presidential candidates.

Since 2014, control of the state has swung between APC and PDP – from the days when Rochas Okorocha was governor, to the brief reign of Emeka Ihedioha and now the tenure of Hope Uzodinma.

It is, therefore, expected that the presidential election would be another face-off between the two biggest parties which have the most develop structures due to their years of being power.

But this election season, the entrance of Obi and his LP is altering calculations in the Southeast. Whether those scenarios are confirmed come polling day remains in the realm of conjecture. At this point though the expectation is that regional sentiments would attract a lot votes to his cause.

Still, it is not clear whether it would be enough to deliver Imo to him. What is obvious is that he and PDP’s Atiku who ran on the same ticket in 2019, would be split the votes that once came from their common pool. That weakens the former VP’s cause.

APC and its candidate Tinubu are expected to much better than in the last two cycles given the advantages of incumbency.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

ABIA STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,120,808

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 13,394; PDP: 368,303

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 85,058; PDP: 219,698

A pall of uncertainty is hanging over Abia State ahead of the forthcoming general elections. Political parties are currently traversing the state to canvass for votes, as the countdown to the election begins. The presidential and National Assembly elections are scheduled to hold on February 25. This will be followed by the governorship and state House of Assembly elections on March 11.

But, the ruling PDP is preparing for the contest as a divided entity. This is not unconnected to the internal crisis rocking the party at the national level; with five of the governors elected on the party’s platform, including the Abia State Governor Ikpeazu, demanding the resignation of the National Chairman, Dr Iyorchia Ayu, and his place taken by a member from the southern part of the country to give the party a national outlook.

Aside from the PDP, four other parties will be vying for positions in Abia State during the forthcoming general elections. They are APC, All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), LP and the Young Progressives Party (YPP). But, only three of them, including the PDP and the APC, have a realistic chance of dominating the contest in the state. The various parties have been engaging in various strategic meetings to review and push their campaigns to the people.

However, members of the PDP are still considering the presidential candidate they would be voting for on February 25. The party is still enmeshed in internal wrangling and leadership squabble, which may cost their presidential candidate victory in Abia State, if not nipped in the bud.

How prepared are the various parties for the general elections?

LP

Just like its presidential candidate, Peter Obi, a good chunk of members of the LP are aggrieved members of the PDP, the APC and the APGA. They see the LP as an alternative platform to further push their political aspirations, following their dissatisfaction with what happened during the primaries in their former parties.

Owing to the relative peace within the party, they are all channeling their strength towards the presidential election, by canvassing votes for Obi and his running mate, Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed.

Though Abia State is not an LP-controlled state, the frenzy around the party’s presidential candidate and the seeming romance of the G5 governors with the party, Obi sympathizers in the PDP and other parties appear to have made up their minds to vote for the LP. Many residents have indeed expressed willingness to cast their votes for Obi.

PDP

The PDP is no doubt the most dominant party in Abia State; with well-oiled structures across the 17 local government areas. But, with the crisis rocking the party, it is going into a general election for the first time without a clear-cut signal to the people about who they should vote for during the presidential polls.

Since nature abhors a vacuum, residents appear to have made up their minds about who to support in the election. With the position of Governor Ikpeazu on the presidential election uncertain, PDP members in the state are compelled to make their own decision about the candidate they will be supporting during the election. For many concerned stakeholders, the continued silence of the G5 governors about their preferred presidential candidate may hurt the party one way or the other. A chieftain of the party who does not want his name mentioned said “whether we like it or not, the governor plays a critical role in determining the mood and movement of the party members on February 25”.

He added: “Atiku was not here when the G5 governors visited the state. Ordinarily, they would have used that day to tell the party where we are headed to. Atiku will be coming to the state very soon and I am not sure that the governor will be around. The governor did not indicate the presidential candidate that people should vote for when he toured Abia South to woo the electorate for the party ahead of the coming election. That is not a good sign for us as a party.

“A lot of persons have come out to say that they are working for Atiku/Okowa, but the truth is that whatever arrangement that we are making without the governor stating his mind amounts to an effort in futility.

“Today, members of our party are openly supporting Peter Obi and that would not have happened if the governor had come out to tell us where his interest lies. If the governor had come out to tell the world his position on the matter, members of the party — even those that have made up their minds not to vote for Atiku — will not be openly engaging in anti-party activities as they are doing today with impunity.

“Twenty-four hours, they say, is enough for something to happen in politics. I agree, but I can tell you for free that the governor will be absent from Atiku’s scheduled presidential campaign in the state. This will further jeopardise the possibility of the party’s presidential flag bearer getting votes from Abia State, which has been traditionally a PDP state since the return to civil rule in 1999.”

But, not every member of the PDP in Abia is at loggerheads with the PDP national leadership and Atiku. Others, particularly those that have been appointed to play one role or the other in the Atiku/Okowa project. This includes the incumbent lawmaker representing Abia Central senatorial zone and former governor, Senator Theodore Ahamefule Orji who is the Southeast coordinator for Atiku/Okowa’s Presidential Campaign Council and Charles Ogbonna, former commissioner for Local Government and Chieftaincy Affairs. They have on several occasions reiterated their support for the Atiku/Okowa ticket of the PDP.

YPP

Many persons have described the Young Progressives Party (YPP) in Abia State as a dumping ground for aggrieved PDP members. But, YPP members in Abia are not queuing up behind the party’s presidential candidate, Malik Ado-Ibrahim. Investigations by The Nation suggest that the majority of the members are rooting for the LP candidate. A few others however are still weighing the option of voting for Atiku. A political analyst, Gideon Okoro believes that Abia will remain a PDP state, despite the current internal wranglings in the party. He said: “Who are members of the YPP in Abia State? It is just a few that came in from the APC or the APGA; most of them, including their governorship candidate and his deputy, were members of the PDP. I will not be surprised to see a good number of them in other parties returning to the PDP after the elections.”

APGA

Though the APGA nominated Peter Umeadi, a professor of law, as its presidential candidate in the coming election, it is well known that the party is not in any serious contention to win the presidential race. Umeadi only flagged off his campaign for the election last week Saturday; three months after the electoral umpire, INEC lifted the ban on electioneering campaigns for the contest. 

Like many of the smaller parties, the APGA governorship candidate in Abia, Prof. Gregory Ibe, is more concerned with the governorship contest and has not declared support for any of the frontline contestants in the race. Though Ibe who is the vice chancellor of Gregory University, Uturu has not come out to publicly declare support for any other political party’s presidential candidate, most party faithful is rooting for the LP presidential candidate who once ruled Anambra State under the umbrella of the APGA.

APC

After some years of being an underdog in Abia politics, the APC has become a dominant party in the state, with members spread across the 17 local government areas. The party also has three lawmakers, who are principal officers, representing it at the National Assembly. They are Senator Orji Uzor Kalu, who is the Chief Whip of the Senate; Nkeiruka Onyejeocha, Deputy Chief Whip of the House of Representatives; and Benjamin Kanu, the spokesperson of the House of Reps, which is otherwise known as the Green Chamber.

As such, the APC is now considered the main opposition party in Abia.

But, the party is factionalized, with members having several matters in courts challenging the outcome of the party’s primaries for various elective positions. The crisis, observers say, may cost it the governorship election scheduled to hold on March 11.

Nevertheless, members of the various factions are unanimous in their resolve to deliver a sizeable percentage of votes for the party’s presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu during next month’s election. Our correspondent reports that various structures to deliver Tinubu/Shettima ticket for the party have been set up by the different factions. Speaking at the inauguration of the Abia State chapter of the Tinubu/Shettima Women Campaign Council, the APC Women Leader in Abia State, Senator Nkechi Nwaogu promised to win a sizeable percentage of for Tinubu and his running mate, Senator Kashim Shettima come February 25.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

EBONYI STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,597,646

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 19,518; PDP: 323,653

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 90,726; PDP: 258,573

In Ebonyi the APC has since kicked off its campaign and launched what it called door-to-door campaign, but other parties who seem to be waiting for the national leadership of their parties to give them directives on how to go about the campaigns.

The APC is the only party among the three major parties in the state who are going into the election with a united front while the other two, PDP and LP, are embroiled in leadership and post primary crisis.

Only the APC has officially flagged off its presidential campaign in the State which witnessed a mammoth crowd.

The event which was held at the Abakaliki Township Stadium last year was attended by the Presidential candidate of the APC Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubi and his running mate, Kashmi Shettima.

Since then the party has moved on to flag off its statewide local government campaign.

It also flagged off its door to door campaign which is want to take the message of the party’s manifesto to the rural areas

Governor David Umahi at the flag off at Iboko, headquarters of Izzi Local Government Area last week said Tinubu will take care of the southeast and Ebonyi.

He said the APC Presidential candidate loves the Igbo nation and that they will be fully accommodated and carried along by Mr Tinubu as president.

He described Tinubu as an experienced and capable Leader who has the capacity to take the country and state to the next level.

Umahi, while soliciting support for Tinubu and others candidates of the party noted that Ebonyi State would be better off with an APC government at all levels.

‘We must go back to our polling units. We are standing with Tinubu and Shettima. They will take care of Ebonyi state the way Buhari took care of Ebonyi state”.

“The way Buhari has been taking care of us that is the way Jagaban is going to take care of the Ndigbo.

“Jagaban was the governor of Lagos state and under him Ndigbo in Lagos prospered and they are still prospering. We are no into sentiment, we will follow the man that knows the way”, he said

Meanwhile, the Presidential candidates of PDP and LP have not visited the state to kick off the state campaign.

A PDP source who spoke on condition of anonymity complained that the division in the party in the state has made it impossible for the party to kick off its campaign for the party’s candidates.

“The party may not do well in the election due to late starting of campaigns. As I am talking to you now, I don’t know when the campaign will start”, the source said.

The source also expressed dismay that the presidential candidate have not done anything to resolve the crisis which have led to the balkanisation of the party in the state.

However, Mr. Ali Odefa, Southeast National Vice Chairman of the party who is from the state disagreed

He told The Nation that the party is united and ready for the polls adding that reconciliation is ongoing to bring aggrieved members together.

Odefa insisted that Ebonyi was traditionally a PDP until Umahi decided to dump the party and cross over to APC in 2020.

The Labour Party is riding on the organic popularity of its presidential candidate in the state.

Infighting in the party has also affected its ability to stage its campaign even as Obi is yet to visit.

Two persons are staking claim to the governorship candidate and the matter is still in court.

However, some of its National Assembly candidate candidates have been massively carrying out campaign at the grassroots.

Obi is hugely popular in the Southeast but his party has been accused of not having structure.

Infact, most of the candidates of the party for various positions were people who lost the primaries in other major parties and jumped to the party in anger.

A source in the party said they moved into the party after the primaries and connived with the national leadership to wrestle control of the party from the original members and conduct a rerun where they emerged.

Some of the original members whose tickets were snatched went to court to challenge them leading to more crisis and division.

Obi was to visit the State on January 11 but it was postponed till January 27.

Nevertheless, the teeming supporters are said to be actively awaiting his visit while some fear that he might have left it too late.

The NNPP candidate, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso visited the state last year but it recorded no impact as the party has very little supporters in the state.

VERDICT: CURRENT TRENDS FAVOUR OBI, APC