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  • Our wives fed us for six months after quitting jobs to start advertising agency – Steve Omojafor

    Our wives fed us for six months after quitting jobs to start advertising agency – Steve Omojafor

    Sir Steve Omojafor, the doyen of advertising in Nigeria clocked 80 years on Tuesday, January 6. Everything about his physical appearance belies his age. He walks smartly,speaks vivaciously and still relates without boundaries. In this interview with INNOCENT DURU, he spoke on why he left journalism for advertising and how he quit paid job and took the risk, together with his friends to start  an agency. EXCERPTS

    You don’t look 80, what do you do to keep yourself the way you are?

    Number one is the grace of God.  It is the biggest of anything that can happen to you which means you recognize the existence of God, walk in His path, and pray. I was brought up in the Catholic Church and I have remained there. Secondly, there is a time for everything.  When we were growing up,  particularly at the university level,  when we go to the bottery, we would drink and drink  and you will be unable to find your way back to your room to sleep. There’s time for all that. From your 20s to even your 50s, your body can take a lot. On those days, when you get tired with beer, you ask for whisky or brandy  and jam all of them together.  At some level, your body will start reacting  and we must listen to our bodies and start bringing it down.    The same thing with food. It gets to a level your body can’t take too much and you can’t force it in.

    But even when you see the body looking good at 80, internally, you have your arthritis and all kinds of issues. But be close to  your medical people. Anytime  you have a serious problem, get them to know and take your medications.

    Tell us about your career path

    I started my career as a reporter at the Daily Times,  and also became a sub-editor after a while.  I didn’t leave because the pay was not good.

     Money wasn’t too much of a problem in those days. Our requirements were very few.

    After my second or third year,  I was going to be moved as assistant editor in one of our publications and I discovered that there was some politics being played.  Murtala takeover of government was something that affected us all because some members of the senior staff  were contacted to see how we could remove Alhaji Jose. I mean, that was the doyen of journalism in Nigeria.  He was our chairman in the Daily Times. The government, when it took over,  thought he was so powerful, he was like a mini Nigeria.

     They wanted to remove him.  Some of us didn’t quite like it. The thing drew up into two camps that became so problematic for us.

    Things weren’t going the way they ought to.  So I just said to myself, I am too early to be plugged down  by these political shenanigans. So I walked across to Lintax  Advertising,  which was almost on the same street.

    A couple of my friends from Akoka were working there.  So the interview process took so long but eventually, I got a job.

    What’s your biggest experience in journalism?

    My biggest experiences in journalism were some good stories I did.

    As a sub-editor,  you had the free will to write features stories a lot.  Sam Amuka was the editor of Sunday Times in those days. He always wanted some exclusives. I was part of a team that reported the 1976 declaration by Gowon that 1976 was not realistic  for them to drop power. I had to be on the field,  confirm the story,  and at the same time interview Nigerians  as to what it felt. The military had stayed there for so long.  That was a big story for me.

    There was a Nigerian who came from Iceland.  You know, Iceland is a very cold, arctic part of the world. And it was a big story which I wrote for Sunday Times, and Sam Amuka was extremely grateful.   I also wrote stories about a burial ground.

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    When they did the  burial stuff, and heavy rain fell, the coffins were floating on the water and that was a big story for me.

    I also interviewed a guy we called Sunny Gbokugboku

     Sunny was the one that would pick up a dead body  and treat it,  get it washed up, put it in a coffin and  and would roll it straight to the burial ground. People thought Sunny Gbokugboku  was an oku (dead person) himself.

    Those are the kind of stories I did. They were usually human angle stories  that affect people.  There wasn’t computer then or AI to get stories. You physically have to be there  and write beautiful stories.

    At 80, what are some of your greatest accomplishments?

     Well, quite a lot.For me, working in the Daily Times in those days  was probably one of the biggest things.  I didn’t even have to apply, because I was  just writing stories for various of the publications.  When I walked in there and I said,  ah, I had just  left university, I want to work in the Daily Times.

     I didn’t know anybody. But before then, the Public Service Commission had come to the university to interview us.  They wanted to give me a job,  whether as an external affairs officer  or to work in the Ministry of Information. I  had those two choices,  but those two ideas didn’t quite strike me.

     But first, I went into the Ministry of Information.  We had an office on Broad Street, and for three months,  I found myself sitting down there, no action.

     I said, no, I wasn’t going to start off my life like this. I walked back into the Daily Times, and I think it was Segun  Osoba who  was deputy editor then.

     I said, ah, egbon (brother),  here I am, I want to work here. Just like a joke, and he remembered he’d seen a bit of my bylines here and there. He said, fine, what are you doing now?  I said, they put me at the Ministry of Information,  and no show. He said, when can you start?  Let me talk to the editors of the smaller newspapers  so you can take it up from there.   It took me one week. I just told my oga  at the ministry, one  Mr. Coker, that  I’m leaving.  Leaving for where? He said no, we’re just trying to find one ministry to post you to  so you can be in charge. I said, no, sir, I’m not too excited about that.

    Three months after I started working at Daily Times,  they then called me from the ministry to say my salary is running.  I said, salary?  No, I didn’t work.  What salary are you talking about?  He said right from the day you were put here,  your salary has been running.  You’ve done three months.  I said, I’m sorry, I won’t be able to collect that. I’m already working elsewhere.  Anyway, I didn’t pick the money and that was how I freed myself from the government. Back to your question,  Daily Times was a very good start for me,  and I enjoyed it thoroughly. I had the opportunity to travel around when  stories are breaking.   Daily Times was a big break for me,  and from there to advertising.  Advertising was, for me,  like an extension of your job  in the newspaper house. You still write stories, but shorter stories, more commercial than just entertainment.

     So we wrote commercial scripts, and then worked with artists and creative people.  And just as in the morning, you want to see your byline in those days, I discovered that any time our ads  came out of the newspapers,  it would just be a thing of joy.  

    I  was  sent to England for a six-month program to  catch the feel of advertising as it was done in those days.

    While I was in England doing this six-month program,  the idea just struck me  that I like the way  advertising is practiced in England. I picked up so many things,  and the idea struck me that a time will come when I would want to set up an agency.

     But something told me you are still too young.  When I discussed it with my mom, she said you must be joking. She said you’d better stay there and train yourself up.

     Anyway, me and two colleagues of mine bite the bullet  and set up Rosabel Advertising Limited, I think that was in 1978.

     That was another major milestone for me.  It was pretty tough.No banks were going to give me a kobo.

     My mother said,  no way, no way, no way.  Go back. Because they considered Lintas  as part of UAC. And as far as they were concerned, UAC virtually owned Nigeria. So how can you leave UAC and say you want to set up some yeye (silly) business.

    Lintas told me when I was  leaving… in fact,  the word that the chairman used was,  if you find it too cold out there,  please come back.  Your desk will be waiting for you. But my prayer was that I didn’t want to come back to put hands by the back and say sorry, sir, it didn’t work out.  But thank God,  Rosabel grew.

    It was like the second generation agencies  after the one owned by expatriates. Setting up that company, again, was another major thing for me. Pretty tough,  but the three of us were classmates at Lagos University.The two of them, Akin Odusin and Tunde Adelaja…Akin left for the United States. Tunde went to England to do some diploma courses.

     Akin went to do another course.  But I stayed back.  I was enjoying my job.  When they came back  and they all fixed themselves, Tunde  met me at Lintas. Akin went to Admark.

    And we usually would meet at the end of the working day at the Apapa Club, have some beer and socialize. When I came back from this program in England with the idea that we could set up our own agency, I contacted the two of them.  And they said, why not?  But give us time to sort out where we are at the moment.

     In 1978, we set up Rosabel and it was quite a big success. While still at Rosabel, another milestone came. We decided to set up a second agency  called STB McCann.  S was for Steve, T for Tunde and, B was Babalola.

    And they decided, Steve, our ideas man,  you are going to run this  your new company.  So both of them remained in Rosabel and I moved in to start up at first, the  company called STB. Along the line, we had an affiliation with McCann and Erickson in England.That was the story as it blew up.  I ran STB McCann for  plenty of years. Finally, it was time to retire and I picked up one of our good staff. You know, because at that time,  they always said,  ah, these agency owners,  they never give way to other people to grow. I  said, no, it’s going to start from here.  So I picked up Rufai Ladipo,who now runs an agency of his.  I said to the board,   I have a successor. They  called him in, interviewed him and he took over.

     Another major thing, I got married somewhere along the line.

    I think I got married in 1975. I was still in Lintas. We have three children.

    When I retired,   I didn’t go into businesses all over, because I always grew up with this philosophy that there’s a limit to how much a man needs in his life.

    When you left Lintas to form Rosabel, you said your boss said you could come back if it’s too cold out there. Did you ever feel like returning?

     At the point that three of us were leaving, we knew it wasn’t going to be a jolly ride.  When we were starting, we asked each person to go and look for N15,000 because we needed about N45,000 to rent a three-bedroom apartment and put a few equipment in place.  It wasn’t easy getting that sum for each one of us. One of the things we did was to call our wives individually and told them we are going into this business and there is no money and you are going to be feeding us for the next six months. Fortunately three of them were working. For six months nobody got anything. Our wives sustained us. 

     How did you get your own N15,000

     In my own case, my mum didn’t want to encourage me.  She was a textile trader at Balogun. I knew she had some money . She didn’t want to let me know she was going to give me N15,000. She sent me to one of my uncles who told me to go back to my mum and ask her to sell one of her lands. When I reported to my mum, she was very angry because this was one of the people she helped in the past.  She sent me to another person and asked me to tell the person that I need N15,000  to start a business. What my mum did was to pay N15,000 into the person’s account and said, I don’t want Steve to know it’s from me because he might end up being complacent.  When I went to the man, he pulled out N15,000 and gave it to me as a loan.  We agreed that I will be paying back N500 every month whether I make money or not. After six months of paying back N500, my mum was happy that I was keeping to the agreement and told the man that when Steve brings the next payment, just say no, your mum is the owner of the money.  I ran back to my mum and said, “Is it that you don’t trust me?” She said no, I just wanted to teach you what it means to make money. I felt bad about it. 

    Is the advertising business dying considering that there are no more big names like Lintas, Rosabel etc we used to know?

     When we got into advertising, there were just about five foreign-owned, not until 1973 when the indigenisation  decree came, that Nigerians ventured. They were all owned by foreigners.  Oglivy Benson, Lintas, Graham and Gillies, about five.

      They came with foreign businesses, and then they just believed, if we go to Nigeria, let us bring our agencies along, then the little group here will be working with the bigger group in England or in America, so that’s how these agencies were surviving. Some of us were lucky to  get employed.

    We competed amongst each other. Because the agencies were few, businesses were plenty, everybody had enough. There wasn’t a battle, hustling  amongst us.

    Come 70s, or late 70s, the indigenization began, more agencies came out to the scene, owned by Nigerians like ours, Insight, SO&U. We started to lose what I would call the principles of engagement.

    We started to lose the rules and regulations. We formed the AAPN in those days to regulate the practice. You had to undergo certain tutelage before you could set up an agency.

     You’ve got to have had enough experience. By the time we were setting up Rosabel, each one of us had done five, seven years working out there. But because an agency  was easy to set up, we didn’t need the capital, and at some point, clients were even ready to help agencies to set up,  we started losing our bearing. People were just doing whatever they wanted to do. But new strong agencies were also coming out.

    And so, Lintas in Europe had its own problem.  The competition was extremely stiff, and you either met some regulations or you couldn’t survive. And the fact that they couldn’t survive affected the local agencies.

    For some reasons, business was no longer as it was in Oglivy’s world over there. It affected us here.

    Nigerians are taking over, and like I said, we were no longer following the rules and clients also became set-ups where they wanted to influence everything you were doing. Now, competition became so fierce. , the rules said if A wanted to pick an agency, you talk to the agency that you want to go to.  You talk to the agency that you want to exit, find out what the issues are, if you’re owing them, you pay. If you’re not owing them, agree to separate as friends.

     But they will owe you and you go away. They owe you so much. I mean, remember during the time when there was so much problem keeping your agency accounts and all you needed is pay a marketing manager some money, he takes your business away.

    The rules of engagement went flat. And there were older agencies who could not join in these games. Oglivy  left, Lintas packed up, Grant packed up Graham and Gillies  packed up. That’s how those ones left. During my time Insight, SO &U blah, blah, blah, , we also went into what you call affiliations with the  bigger agencies  in Europe and in the US.

    It went well for quite a while. But then, from one agency, you just wake up, three agencies have been formed out of your own agency.

     Because the guys were pretty smart, and they knew how to walk up to the clients and say, there’s so much problem in this agency, I want to set up my own. And I will make sure,  they don’t charge you this much. They give promises, which of course they ain’t going to keep.

    And so, we got cut into pieces. If you look at how many agencies have come out of Insight, how many agencies have come out of Rosabel …., I mean, how did Rosabel die?  We just lost some major businesses. And as a board  we sat down  and  I said, you see, we can’t win this fight with these younger guys. Their own attitude to business, to money, to wealth was quite different from our own attitude.  Rosabel  closed down.

    And I said, look, STB McCann, no matter what happens, it is not going to close down.

     What was the secret?

     Well, I think it was self-belief. I  believed in myself and believed in my team.

     Maybe, you were billing 10 million hypothetically, and suddenly it started dropping, and you are now billing 5 million. What do you do?   There was a year I called for a general meeting. And I said, see, these  are the  situations.

    We either let 25 people go, and retain what we were earning  or we keep them and cut down all the pecks and what we  were earning, so we can keep ourselves together. Fortunately, people voted for  reducing our pay and all that so that the very good ones will not be fired. And that kept the agency alive.

  • Inside Lagos’ Opebi–Mende bridge project

    Inside Lagos’ Opebi–Mende bridge project

    In Lagos, infrastructure is never just about concrete and steel; it is about time, survival and the fragile balance of daily life. Along the Opebi–Mende corridor, a bridge meant to restore movement has instead suspended routines, strained businesses and tested public patience. While government speaks of vision and transformation, those living and working beneath the rising structure continue to adapt, wait and hope — measuring progress not by design plans, but by when normalcy finally returns, reports ZAINAB OLUFEMI.

    Some are hopeful, others exhausted, and many are quietly asking the same question: are we almost there, or are we still waiting? That question hangs in the air across parts of Ikej a and its surrounding corridors, where a major infrastructure project promised relief but has instead prolonged anticipation. Earlier, The Nation reported assurances from the Lagos State Commissioner for Information and Strategy, Mr. Gbenga Omotoso, who spoke confidently during an interactive session with members of the Lagos State Correspondents’ Chapel at Alausa, Ikeja.

    “All the beautiful projects that we have embarked upon will be completed soon. The Opebi–Mende Link Bridge will be commissioned before the end of this year. What remains now are just finishing touches,” Omotoso said. He stressed that Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu and his deputy, Dr. Obafemi Hamzat, operate a zero-tolerance policy for abandoned projects.

    For many Lagosians, the assurance was reassuring. After years of navigating gridlocks around Opebi, Allen, Maryland and Ojota, the bridge represented far more than concrete and steel. It symbolised movement, relief, and the possibility of reclaiming countless hours lost daily to traffic congestion. The bridge promised an alternative route, a release valve for some of Ikeja’s most congested arteries.

    But months later, the early excitement has given way to cautious waiting. A visit to the project corridor reveals a quieter, more complicated story—one of half-cleared roads, altered access points, and businesses learning to adapt amid dust, demolition and uncertainty. The bridge itself rises steadily, imposing and ambitious against the skyline. Yet its commissioning remains out of reach for commuters who had expected an open road by now, and for traders whose livelihoods have been reshaped by the prolonged construction phase.

    Along Opebi Road, the impact of the road expansion tied to the bridge project is immediate and impossible to ignore. Entire sections have been reshaped, sidewalks narrowed or removed, and familiar landmarks altered. For businesses lining the corridor, the changes have been disruptive. At an MTN outlet on Opebi Road, Grace Samuel, a company representative, recalled how demolition associated with the expansion caught many off guard. “They told us they wanted to expand the road so that two vehicles can pass easily. At first, we didn’t really believe it would happen the way it did. Then one day, they just started demolishing from that side. They broke part of our office,” she said.

    The demolition, she explained, disrupted long-standing parking arrangements and changed how customers accessed the office. What had once been a convenient stop became a logistical challenge. “Before, customers could park here. Now we have to park on the other side. That has affected convenience,” she said, adding that the company would have to bear the cost of renovating the damaged space.

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    Still, her frustration was tempered with optimism. Like many business owners along the corridor, she believes the long-term benefits will outweigh the short-term pain. “The road used to block traffic seriously. When it’s done, movement will be faster. We’re still coming back,” she said, expressing cautious faith in the project’s promise.

    A few streets away, the impact is less dramatic but no less significant at Sooyah Bistro in Ikeja. Here, the disruption has translated into a quiet but steady loss of walk-in customers. Omotola, a staff member at the restaurant, said construction activities drastically reduced foot traffic, forcing the business to rethink how it operates. “Our walk-in customers have really reduced,” she said. “Most of our orders now come from Chowdeck, Glovo and WhatsApp. People can’t locate us easily anymore.” The challenge, she explained, goes beyond visibility. Parking has become a major deterrent. “Customers are afraid their cars might be towed, so they don’t want to park,” she said.

    For small and medium-sized businesses that depend on spontaneous visits and easy access, these changes have been costly. Some have adjusted by shifting to delivery models, while others are simply enduring, hoping the end is near. For commuters, the experience is similarly mixed. Traffic diversions intended to ease construction have sometimes created new choke points, redistributing congestion rather than eliminating it. Drivers speak of longer detours, unfamiliar routes and the mental fatigue of daily uncertainty. Pedestrians navigate narrower walkways, often sharing space with vehicles in ways that feel unsafe.

    Although the business received prior notice before demolition began, Omotola said the timing of the exercise proved particularly damaging. According to her, construction commenced at a period when many businesses traditionally record their highest sales. “It happened around December, which is our peak period. Sales dropped,” she said, noting that the disruption came at a time when foot traffic and customer demand should ordinarily have been strongest.

    Despite the immediate losses, Omotola expressed cautious optimism that the inconvenience would eventually give way to long-term gains. She believes the road expansion, once completed, would improve access to the area and restore customer confidence. “The road expansion is a good idea. Once it’s completed, movement will be better and we expect more customers,” she added.

    For roadside traders operating outside formal shop structures, however, the hardship has been far more severe. Many of them lack the buffer or flexibility to absorb prolonged disruptions, making them particularly vulnerable to infrastructure projects of this scale. A food vendor, who requested anonymity, said her sales dropped sharply almost immediately after construction began. As access routes disappeared and the environment deteriorated, customers stopped coming. “Immediately they started the road, customers stopped coming,” she said. “There was nowhere to pass. Everywhere was dirty, especially during the rainy season.”

    Unlike shop owners who received advance notice, she said many roadside traders were caught unprepared. “That day was very stressful. We had already cooked. We had to pack food inside quickly while everywhere was dusty,” she recalled. Beyond the economic impact, the vendor said the construction has created serious health and safety concerns. Dust, debris, and exposed gutters now surround their trading spaces, posing risks to both vendors and customers, particularly those selling food.

    “It’s not safe now,” she said. “But when they finish the road, especially this gutter, things will be better. Rats and dirt won’t disturb us again.” Her words reflect a recurring theme along the construction corridor: hardship tempered by hope. While daily survival has become more difficult, many traders continue to endure, clinging to the belief that the completed project will ultimately improve their working environment.

    Despite the financial losses and health concerns, the vendor said she remains hopeful that the authorities will accelerate work and bring the project to a close. “I pray they finish it before the next rainy season,” she said. For many informal traders like her, the completion of the road is not just about better traffic flow. It represents the chance to rebuild livelihoods disrupted by months of uncertainty and to return to safer, cleaner conditions where business can once again thrive.

    Government urges patience as landmark bridge nears completion

    On the government’s side, officials insist that the ambition of the Opebi–Mende Link Bridge goes far beyond what is immediately visible on the ground. They argue that the project is not merely about easing traffic at a single corridor, but about delivering a long-term solution to some of Lagos’ most persistent mobility challenges. When contacted, the Director of Public Affairs at the Lagos State Ministry of Works, Mr. Sina Odunuga, was measured in his comments, offering few operational details but firm assurances about the project’s broader intent.

    According to him, the bridge was conceived as a transformational piece of infrastructure designed to address long-standing congestion issues while reshaping movement patterns across key parts of Ikeja and its adjoining districts. “The project will solve major traffic problems,” Odunuga said. “Transformation itself is progress. What you are seeing there, the vision is higher than what you see. The concept of the project is bigger than that.”

    In his view, the scale and symbolism of the bridge place it in the same category as some of Lagos State’s most iconic infrastructure developments. He likened it to the Ikoyi Link Bridge, which has since become both a functional transport artery and a visual landmark. “It is something like the Ikoyi Link Bridge. That’s how it’s supposed to look,” he said, suggesting that the Opebi–Mende project is intended to stand not only as a traffic solution but also as a statement of urban ambition.

    Odunuga added that the project was initiated by the current administration and would be completed under the same leadership, an assertion aimed at addressing public concerns about abandoned or prolonged infrastructure works. He said the government remains conscious of the need to balance transparency with responsible communication, especially on projects that directly affect daily life. “We are very careful not to give out too much information as regards the road,” he said, noting that premature timelines can sometimes raise expectations that are difficult to meet, particularly when construction is influenced by weather, logistics, and technical complexities.

    On the question of commissioning, Odunuga acknowledged the public’s impatience but stopped short of committing to a specific date. However, he was emphatic that the wait would not stretch indefinitely. “If it does not get commissioned this year, it will be within the first quarter of next year,” he said.

    For residents and commuters, the bridge has gradually become a familiar Lagos narrative — one defined by bold vision, daily inconvenience, and patient hope. It mirrors the trajectory of many large infrastructure projects in the city, where the promise of future relief often competes with the reality of present disruption. Motorists navigating the surrounding corridors continue to endure detours, narrowed roads and unpredictable traffic patterns. Business owners along the route grapple with reduced foot traffic and accessibility challenges, while pedestrians adapt to altered walkways and safety concerns. Yet amid the frustration, there is a shared understanding that Lagos’ growth demands difficult choices and temporary sacrifice.

    Urban planners and transport analysts note that projects of this scale rarely deliver immediate gratification. Their value, they argue, becomes evident over time — in reduced travel hours, improved connectivity, and the gradual easing of pressure on overburdened road networks. In that context, the true test of the Opebi–Mende Link Bridge will come not at its commissioning ceremony, but in the months that follow, as commuters begin to experience tangible improvements in their daily journeys.

    Ultimately, the success of the bridge will be measured not by press statements or architectural ambition, but by how effectively it restores time, movement and dignity to everyday life in one of Nigeria’s busiest urban centres. Until then, the Opebi–Mende Link Bridge stands as both a symbol of promise and a reminder of delay — rising steadily above the road, visible proof of an unfolding vision, while those below continue to wait for the relief they were told was just around the corner.

  • Cautious optimism over stronger manufacturing sector

    Cautious optimism over stronger manufacturing sector

    Despite the tough business environment last year, operators in the manufacturing sector benefited from improved macro-economic stability, which manifested in relative naira stability, easing inflationary pressures and economic growth of about 3.4 to 3.9 per cent. Encouraged by the measure of predictability that came their way, manufacturers and other businesses are cautiously optimistic about a stronger growth of the sector in 2026. They, however, hinge their optimism on fiscal policy clarity, sustained economic reforms and adequate infrastructure. Assistant Editor CHIKODI OKEREOCHA reports.

    Even before 2026 kicked in, a wind of optimism, though measured, was already sweeping through Nigeria’s manufacturing and business landscape, drawing strength from improved macro-economic stability in the previous year 2025.

    For instance, the local currency, the naira, was relatively stable, while inflation trended downwards from 34 per cent to 14.5 per cent, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) over several consecutive months.

    Also, with economic growth of about 3.4 to 3.9 per cent, heading towards four per cent, not a few manufacturers agree that 2025 was a relatively stable year for the sector. “It was a stable year. We saw stability in the naira, inflation trending downwards, and economic growth of about 3.4 to 3.9 per cent, heading towards four per cent. That stability was a good thing for manufacturers,” the Managing Director/CEO, Coleman Technical Industries Limited, Mr George Onafowokan said.

    Onafowokan, who spoke while assessing business conditions and expectations for the coming year, confirmed that manufacturers benefited from improved macroeconomic stability, including relative naira stability, easing inflation and steady economic growth. He also expressed optimism that clearer fiscal policies and sustained economic reforms could unlock stronger growth for the sector and, by extension, the economy, from 2026.

    The Director, Research and Economic Policy Division, Manufacturers’ Association of Nigeria (MAN), Dr Oluwasegun Osidipe, also projected a stronger Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, a stronger naira, a sustained decline in inflation, as well as improved access to credit for manufacturers and other businesses in 2026.

    Osidipe, who made the projections in Lagos at a news conference on the 2025 MAN Think Tank Session, however, predicated these projections on favourable oil prices, rising foreign investments, stable energy costs, and the effective implementation of key industrial and fiscal policies.  He said the projections, if actualised, would lead to higher manufacturing output.

    The 2025 MAN Think Tank Session provided a platform for academics, industry experts and policy strategists to engage in a constructive dialogue, share expertise and develop groundbreaking solutions to the pressing challenges affecting the manufacturing sector.

    At the Session, Osidipe specifically said: “For manufacturers, naira is projected to appreciate further to N1, 300–N1, 400/$, driven by global oil price recovery, stronger external reserves, robust export earnings, increased foreign investments, and remittance inflows. Headline inflation will decelerate further to 14 per cent, supported by easing food prices, stable energy prices, and appreciation of the naira.

    The MAN Director of Research further said: “The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is anticipated to implement further cuts in the benchmark interest rate to about 23 per cent, in line with disinflationary trend, and to stimulate credit expansion and output growth. Further reduction in lending rates and completion of the bank recapitalisation exercise will enhance credit availability to manufacturers, strengthening investment and capacity utilisation.”

    Osidipe did not stop there. He said for manufacturing output, real growth was projected to reach 3.1 per cent while contribution to real GDP was expected to rise to 10.2 per cent. He, however, said the expected gains will be propelled by the effective execution of new tax laws’ incentives, operationalisation of the National Single Window Project, and purposeful implementation of the Nigeria Industrial Policy in close alignment with the “Nigeria First” policy framework.

    While Nigeria’s economic growth of about 3.4 to 3.9 per cent was heading towards four per cent, according to Onafowokan, Osidipe aligned with him, noting that overall GDP growth was expected to reach four per cent in 2026 due to higher oil output and further improvement in fiscal space. He added that expansion in financial and manufacturing sectors, and heightened consumption during the election campaigns in Q4 2026, would also spur GDP growth.

    But as promising as 2026 appears, Onafowokan expressed his hope that the Federal Government will sign off on some fiscal policy recommendations, which, according to him, will impact manufacturers in terms of tariffs and help boost capacity utilisation and industry growth. He said many manufacturers were yet to fully benefit from improved macroeconomic stability due to delays in implementing key fiscal policies.

    The MD/CEO of Coleman, manufacturers of wires and cables, lamented that fiscal policy measures proposed since 2023 were yet to be signed, leading to missed opportunities in 2024 and 2025.

    “One key issue is the fiscal policy measures which have not been signed till now. We’ve missed 2024 and 2025, and we are hoping that by 2026, the government will sign off on these fiscal policy recommendations,” he said.

    However, looking ahead to 2026, which coincides with a pre-election year, Onafowokan expressed cautious optimism, citing positive budgetary signals, particularly increased capital expenditure, exchange rate stability and the prospect of easing interest rates.

    “We see a positive outlook for growth. There are growing domestic investment, renewed foreign direct investment, infrastructure development and opportunities in sectors like oil and gas, telecoms and fibre optics,” he said.

    “These developments could make 2026 a catalyst year for sustained strategic growth,” he emphasised, pointing out, however, that on the implementation of the new tax laws that began on January 1, 2026, misinformation is the biggest concern for businesses and investors. “There is more misinformation than correct information. The government needs to do more to explain the tax laws and their benefits,” he said.

    While commending aspects of the reforms that provide relief for low-income earners, Onafowokan warned that poor communication and immediate enforcement without sufficient transition time could distort markets, recalling how misinformation recently triggered significant losses in the stock market.

    He also clarified that withholding tax on savings interest remains a final tax, dismissing fears of double taxation, and urged authorities to intensify public education on the reforms. He, however, welcomed the Federal Government’s focus on security and infrastructure in the 2026 budget, describing both as critical enablers of economic growth.

    Read ALso:Mbah seeks review of financing models for manufacturing sector

    “Security is crucial to investment and growth. Infrastructure spending—on roads, housing, power, hospitals and education—is a catalyst for development. It opens up new markets, creates jobs and drives economic expansion across regions,” he said.

    President of MAN, Otunba Francis Meshioye, could not agree less with Onafowokan. “Infrastructure gaps persist, particularly in logistics and transportation. Insecurity continues to inhibit progressive business planning and operations. In general, and despite the onset of relative stability, a lot still needs to be done to overcome macroeconomic headwinds,” he said.

    Meshioye, who spoke at the opening ceremony of the 3-day Made-in-Nigeria Exhibition as part of the Association’s 53rd Annual General Meeting (AGM) held in Lagos, recently, added that energy costs remain astronomically high, while access to credit is constrained by rising interest rates and limited long-term finance. “We must take intentional action to overcome these binding constraints,” he stated.

    Indeed, infrastructure, particularly the asphyxiating cost of energy or electricity has been thorn in the flesh of manufacturers. With the hike in electricity tariffs of more than 250 per cent, many manufacturers say their energy bills have become unbearable. Those who turned to diesel-powered generators spend up to half their operating costs on fuel.

    For instance, manufacturers’ cost of alternative energy in H1 2025 stood at N676.6 billion, according to data made available to The Nation by MAN. Though, down from N708.1 billion in H2 2024, the Association said the figure remained heavy burden on operational cost.

    “Power alone is a tax on productivity. You cannot talk about competitiveness when your factories run on self-generated power at four or five times what producers elsewhere pay,” lamented MAN’s Director-General, Segun Ajayi-Kadir.

    Other persistent and binding constraints that might stand in the way to unlocking stronger growth for the manufacturing sector in 2026 and beyond, include policy inconsistencies, weak domestic demand due to high inflation and supply chain disruptions (like port inefficiencies) and high operating costs, among others. 

    Actionable path to realising the projected growth

     Despite the heart-warming macro-economic indicators in 2025 and the resultant favourable outlook and projections that have put manufacturers and other business in an expectant mood, unlocking stronger growth for the manufacturing sector in 2026 and beyond will not be a stroll in the park, considering the myriads of binding constraints that stand in the way.

    Ajayi-Kadir admitted that Nigeria’s economy is on a path of gradual recovery, a fact he said has been reaffirmed by the modest yet consecutive rise in the Manufacturers CEO’s Confidence Index (MCCI) since Q2 2025. He, however, said while the stabilisation path has been cleared, what lies ahead is the imperative of accelerated growth.

    He, therefore, said to sustain this trajectory in 2026 and beyond, exchange rate stability must be guarded with every available policy tool. “Currency stability is more than a macro-economic metric, it is a reflection of national resolve,” he stated, noting that “one of the biggest threats to the hard-won stabilisation is a decline in oil production, as witnessed in August and September.”

    Although Ajayi-Kadir admitted that global oil prices remain entirely outside Nigeria’s control, he, however, said the country retains considerable influence over its production levels; a domestic variable that must be managed with urgency and precision.

    “The government must, therefore, take decisive measures to reach the OPEC quota by tightening pipeline security and upgrading operational infrastructure. Also, the government should sustain the increase in refining capacity by forestalling any further industrial disputes in the mainstay of the economy,” he stated.

    He also called for further reduction of the benchmark interest rate by at least 200–300 basis points to make credit affordable for manufacturers as well as launch a Manufacturing Refinancing and Rediscounting Facility (MRRF) that allows banks to refinance approved manufacturing loans at single-digit rates for up to seven years.

    Although manufacturers commend the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN’s) recent benchmark interest rate cut, which, according to them, signals a welcome policy shift. They, however, insist that the time has come for the apex bank to take a bolder step by introducing a deeper rate cut that can meaningfully lower the cost of credit and stimulate real sector investment.

    “Growth cannot thrive where capital remains prohibitively expensive” Ajayi-Kadir emphasised, adding that on the fiscal front, the development and implementation of the Nigeria Industrial Policy is long overdue. “It (i.e. Industrial Policy) must be aligned with the “Nigeria First” Policy and highly private sector-driven, ensuring coherence between policy intent and industrial realities,” he said.

    Ajayi-Kadir further stated that as the country prepares for the implementation of new tax laws this January 2026, shared ownership and strict adherence to execution plans will be critical.

    He said: “Progressive tax reforms can only deliver their promise of higher revenue, improved living standards and a more enabling business environment when enforcement is disciplined and predictable.”

    Accordingly, he called for the establishment of a Tax Policy Implementation and Evaluation Unit under the Federal Ministry of Finance to regularly assess how the new tax regime affects investment, manufacturing costs and Medium, Small and Micro Enterprise (MSME) performance.

    President Bola Tinubu signed the Tax Reform Act in June, 2025. Rather than simply raising taxes, the law aimed to streamline the chaotic system, setting the stage for a new fiscal era starting January 2026. Accordingly, the new tax laws, which took effect from January 1, aims at simplifying tax compliance, broaden the tax base and boost revenue.

    The Nigeria Tax Act 2025 consolidates multiple tax laws, including Companies Income Tax, Personal Income Tax and Value Added Tax, into a unified framework. The reforms aim to promote fiscal stability, transparency, and accountability, while supporting economic growth and development.

    Ahead of its implementation, has thrown its weight behind the new tax regime, with Ajayi-Kadir saying that manufacturers are optimistic that a more business-friendly tax regime is in the offing. Their hope is that the tax reforms would put an end to multiple and sometimes illegal taxes by various tiers of government.

    This is because the reforms streamline revenue administration and eliminate multiple, overlapping taxes by consolidating over a dozen federal tax laws into a single unified statute and encouraging states to do the same.

    Continuing, Ajayi-Kadir stressed the need to categorise manufacturers as strategic users of gas, pointing out that this will remove the gap between what manufacturers and electricity generation companies pay per cubic foot of gas. He also harped on the need to introduce a stable, transparent gas pricing framework for manufacturers and prioritize local gas supply before exports.

    Other actionable recommendations put forward by the MAN D-G to boost the manufacturing sector’s output and competitiveness include offering tax credits and recognition awards to companies and consumers patronising locally manufactured goods and creating a dedicated manufacturing FX window to ensure access to forex for raw materials and machinery.

    Push for punitive measures for violators of Nigeria First policy

    President Tinubu, on May 5, 2025, approved the Renewed Hope Nigeria First policy that mandates all federal Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) to give absolute priority to Nigerian goods, services and know‑how when spending public funds.

    The policy, which mirrors the US President Donald Trump’s “America First” doctrine places Nigeria at the centre of all public procurement and business activity, with a strong emphasis on empowering local industries and reducing dependency on imports.

    The ‘Renewed Hope Nigeria First’ Policy was aimed at strengthening Nigeria’s domestic economy, prioritising local industry and boosting the country’s industrial transformation.

    Specifically, the policy focuses on accelerating industrialisation, promoting manufacturing, and leveraging digital technology to enhance local production and reduce reliance on raw material exports.

    Key elements of the policy include targeted funding for small-scale entrepreneurs and Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), including N50 billion in grants and N75 billion for MSMEs and manufacturing through the Bank of Industry (BoI).

    The policy aligns with Nigeria’s broader industrial development goals, including the Nigeria Industrial Revolution Plan, which aims to significantly increase manufacturing’s contribution to GDP and create jobs by boosting local production and industrial capacity.

    But, MAN has urged the Federal Government to gazette policy and make it a binding law, with punitive measures for violators. Ajayi-Kadir said this was critical to give the policy legal standing, ensuring transparency, public awareness, and enforceability across government institutions and the private sector.

    While commending the Federal Government for the policy pronouncement, the MAN D-G stated that the country anxiously awaits the initiative’s expedited consummation and its effective implementation.

    He stressed the need to gazette the Nigeria First policy and make it a binding law, and punitive measures put in place for violators. According to him, the policy must quickly move from initiation to government policy, lest it suffers the same fate as the Executive Orders 003 and 005.

    Recall that the Federal Government, some years ago, put the spotlight on local manufacturing, coming out with the Executive Order 003, which stated that all Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) shall grant preference to local manufacturers in the procurement of goods and services.

    Also, the Executive Order 005 directed all MDAs to engage indigenous professionals in the planning, design and execution of national security projects and maximise in-country capacity in all contracts and transactions with science, technology and engineering components.

    Sadly, however, the Executive Orders 003 and 005 were marred by lax compliance and shoddy implementation.

    Ajayi-Kadir said with Nigeria First policy, “Nigeria must seize this moment to transform its manufacturing sector by prioritising the patronage of local products,” noting that “If we fail to nurture our own, we will forever be at the mercy of others.”

    He also called on consumers to prioritise and actively support locally made products to help stimulate demand for domestic manufacturing. “By choosing Nigerian-made goods, consumers can contribute to the sector’s resilience and growth, fostering economic development and job creation,” he said.

    In coming forward with the foregoing recommendations, Ajayi-Kadir said manufacturing, ultimately, remains the heartbeat of sustainable recovery and the catalyst for inclusive growth. He argued that no economy has ever prospered on consumption alone.

    “Nations rise by producing what they consume and exporting what they produce. To secure the gains of stabilisation and accelerate prosperity, Nigeria must make manufacturing the nucleus of its growth strategy,” he urged.

  • Economic template for total reset as tax laws take effect

    Economic template for total reset as tax laws take effect

    Despite opposition to and the ripples that attended the introduction of the Federal Government’s new tax laws, their implementation is now a foregone conclusion. All that needs to be on the radar at the moment is monitoring and evaluation to ascertain if their impacts match government’s promises and assuage the concerns of the citizenry, writes Group Business Editor, SIMEON EBULU.

    Opposition to the newly introduced tax laws by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu came early. They faced their first litmus test at the meeting of the National Economic Council (NEC), chaired by the Vice-President, Kashim Shettima, with the 36 states’ governors in attendance. They had resolved at that early stage of deliberation to keep the laws in abeyance until, in their opinion, further consultation was done.

    NEC felt that the bills were sent to the National Assembly without sufficient consultation with key stakeholders, and as such, broader consultation was required to ensure alignment and inclusiveness for the benefit of everyone.

    Also, the proposition model for distributing Value Added Tax (VAT), which sought to change the existing formula to one based largely on derivation, was a major point of contention. Northern governors, in particular, argued that since corporations from which VAT proceeds are derived are located down south, it follows, so they posited, that VAT remittances would favour the region and disproportionately disadvantage the North, regardless of where products are consumed.

    The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), in league with some lawmakers, also latched on to this, arguing that introducing new taxes or increasing existing ones would further burden the already struggling populace and small businesses. There were also concerns that some aspects of the bills, regarding the creation of a centralised Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), to succeed the Federal Internal Revenue Service (FIRS), might disrupt the balance of fiscal federalism and potentially conflict with the Nigerian Constitution, requiring constitutional amendments.

    NEC rose from that meeting with a call to the President to withdraw the tax bills to give room for more consultation. At that point, the Tax Bills were thought to be dead on arrival, but no, not with Mr President. An opposition that would not recede from its avowed stance on stalling the tax laws, also met with a President that would not relent in his resolve to ensure that the right thing was done.

    Tinubu, rather than acceding to the NEC’s advice to withdraw the bills entirely, opted for the legislative process, including public hearings, as other avenues to address the concerns raised by NEC. That was the right thing to do. He turned the documents over to the people’s representatives, the National Assembly. The issues were eventually resolved through further dialogue and negotiation, leading to a revised VAT sharing formula that all parties, including the Northern Governors’ Forum, later endorsed.

    The Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee and arrowhead of the tax reforms, Taiwo Oyedele, took on the gauntlet and eventually pushed through the passage of the laws, which were assented to by Mr President in June, 2025.

    The Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee engaged different strategies, including media interviews and stakeholder consultations, among others, to clarify and showcase the benefits of the reforms, particularly for low-income earners and small businesses. He said the reforms will not increase the tax burden on the poor, and that VAT will not apply to essential items, such as food, health and education. He pointed out that the new tax regime will benefit small businesses through zero corporate tax rates.

    Just as the dust was settling on the various controversies around the tax laws and the groundbreaking for the implementation was almost at hand, two issues suddenly popped up, the one around the allegation that the version of the laws passed by the National Assembly was different from what was gazetted, and the other, the alarm raised by Allen Onyema, the Chairman/CEO of Air Peace, that implementing the new Tax laws in their present format, would harm, or jeopardise airline businesses. The outcry further fueled and encouraged dissenting voices, with calls being made to the Presidency to investigate the allegation, and as well postpone the implementation of the new tax laws.

    Onyema, who aired his views on Arise News Television, said the taxes which include Customs duties on imported aircraft, aircraft parts and engines, as well as VAT on tickets will further burden airlines with additional costs.

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    “There is VAT now on the importation of aircraft. So, if you buy an aircraft of $80 million, you are supposed to pay 7.5 per cent of $80 million. Do the mathematics, from money borrowed from the bank; interest rates are 30 to 35 per cent. So, you bring in spare parts, you pay 7.5 per cent on your spare parts. The airline industry cannot withstand additional burdens under the new tax laws. If we implement that tax reform, Nigerian airlines will go down in three months,” he warned.

    Oyedele, however, allayed those fears, saying the new taxes were not designed to hinder businesses, let alone kill them. He said rather than increase air fares, the new tax laws will support Nigeria’s aviation industry and reduce costs. While acknowledging the challenges facing the aviation sector, particularly the burden of multiple taxes, levies and regulatory charges, Oyedele stressed “we are not responsible for the sector’s problems,” saying on the contrary, “the reforms are part of the solution, not the source of the problem.”

    Presidential seal

     In the midst of the discordant voices questioning the veracity of the new tax laws, the President’s voice sounded once again with an unmistakable air of finality, saying that implementing the new taxes across the board is a task that must be done. In an unprecedented move, intended to erase any doubts on his resolve about the tax matters, Tinubu personally issued a statement which, in all material particulars, put paid to any controversy on the tax issues and their admissibility into Nigeria’s tax codes, going forward.

    Tinubu, in the statement, said the tax laws will continue as planned, adding, “these reforms are a once-in-a-generation opportunity to build a fair, competitive and robust fiscal foundation for our country.” For those who have misconstrued the intent of the taxes to be anti-enterprise, saying their implementation will kill businesses, the President said the tax laws, on the contrary is not designed to raise taxes, but to support a structural reset, drive harmonisation and protect dignity while strengthening the social contract. While calling for stakeholders’ support at this “implementation phase,” he assured all Nigerians that the Federal Government would continue to act in the overriding public interest to ensure a tax system that supports prosperity and shared responsibility.

    Stakeholders’ endorsement

     With the roll-out of the new tax laws, the Manufacturers’ Association of Nigeria (MAN) has thrown its weight behind the new tax regime. MAN Director-General Segun Ajayi-Kadir said manufacturers are optimistic that a more business-friendly tax regime is in the offing.

    Manufacturers’ optimism is predicated on their belief that the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration’s tax reforms would put an end to multiple and sometimes illegal taxes by various tiers of government.

    This is on the strength of tax harmonisation promised by the reforms, which streamlines revenue administration and eliminates multiple, overlapping taxes by consolidating over a dozen federal tax laws into a single unified statute and encouraging states to do the same.

    The Managing Director/CEO of Coleman Technical Industries Limited, manufacturers of wires and cables, George Onafowokan, however, said the biggest concern for businesses and investors with regard to the implementation of the new tax laws is misinformation.

    “There is more misinformation than correct information. The government needs to do more to explain the tax laws and their benefits,” he said, while commending aspects of the reforms that provide relief for low-income earners.

    Onafowokan warned that poor communication and immediate enforcement without sufficient transition time could distort markets, recalling how misinformation recently triggered significant losses in the stock market.

    He also clarified that withholding tax on savings interest remains a final tax, dismissing fears of double taxation and urged authorities to intensify public education on the reforms.

    Onafowokan’s hint on ‘sufficient transition time’ aligns with suggestions by some manufacturers that there should be a brief pause in implementation to allow for wider stakeholder engagement and clear guidelines to ensure better compliance and acceptance.

    Despite manufacturers’ support, the implementation of the new tax regime hasn’t been without some controversies, one of which is the alleged discrepancies between the laws passed by the National Assembly and the gazetted versions.

    This led to calls for the suspension of its implementation by other groups and some lawmakers. Nonetheless, the Federal Government has kick- started the process, as the President affirmed, there’s “no going back.”

    The Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, Oyedele, insisted there was no stopping the process.

    The President, Bank Customers’ Association of Nigeria (BCAN), Dr Uju Ogubunka, said taxation should be based on income. He said as a finance expert and consultant, transactions that are not based on income should not be taxed, saying he expects the government to properly educate the people on what should be taxed, to avoid fears and panic that would lead many businesses to operate underground and report nothing.

    “I think that across the world, what is usually taxed as income and not turnover. If you push businesses into believing that a lot of their resources will be taxed, they are likely to operate underground and ensure that not much of their funds pass through the banks.”

    He said that tax authorities should educate retirees on what the tax policy entails, whether retirement funds should be taxed, unless there are proceeds from established businesses.

    Ogubunka said the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has spent years pushing for financial inclusion, and a badly implemented tax policy could hurt such achievements. “The tax authorities should look out for justifiable income and tax it. They cannot tax anything that is not earned or capital for businesses. Once these lines are not crossed, I see business compliance rising and the economy better for it,” adding that a badly implemented tax policy could reduce businesses’ transactions in banks, and that will not impact positively on the economy.

    Also, the President/Chairman of Council of the Chartered Institute of Taxation of Nigeria (CITN), Innocent Ohagwa, said as the pre-eminent tax institution in Nigeria, CITN’s concern is in ensuring that due legislative process is observed and not breached, especially in respect of an important subject matter as taxation, which thrives on exactitude of tax legislation.

    He said that the integrity of the tax process will command respect and enhance compliance, pointing out that no effort should be spared in getting it right from the onset to avoid overwhelming challenges in the future.

    He said tax authorities should strive to ensure that any observed discrepancies, whether arising from procedural lapses, administrative errors, or unauthorised alterations in the tax policy, are corrected. According to him, the Nigerian constitution and established parliamentary practice require that laws assented to and gazetted must be identical to those duly passed by the legislature and that any post-passage changes must follow constitutionally recognised procedures. He warned that deviation from this standard, intentional or otherwise, compromises the rule of law, separation of powers, predictability and stability in the tax system.

    Ohagwa insisted that the integrity of the legislative process is fundamental to the rule of law, good governance, and public confidence in democratic institutions. In his words: “Tax legislation, in particular, requires the highest level of accuracy, transparency, and procedural fidelity due to its far-reaching implications for government revenue, businesses, professionals and citizens,” he said.

    Expressing support for the new tax regime, the President of Nigeria Institution of Estate Surveyors and Valuers (NIESV), Dr Victor Alonge, said the relief in the tax composition is not only a plus for the real estate sector, but also, in his opinion, one of the most beneficial laws for Nigerian workers. He said “about 90 per cent of workers will not be paying taxes and small businesses are also exempted from taxation in the new tax regime,” stating that the relief will lead to higher disposable income which can be invested in real estate. Residential properties are not expected to pay VAT but construction companies are expected to pay. If properly managed, he said, the impact of taxation on building materials will not be pushed to subscribers.

    The CEO of Housing Development Advocacy Network (HDAN), Festus Adebayo, said that one of the likely impacts of the new tax regime, among others, is Rent Relief.

    He said: “Tenants can claim up to N200, 000 or 20 per cent of annual rent as tax relief, potentially increasing demand for rental properties.”

    He said a 1.5 per cent tax on high-value homes of about N500 million and above may discourage luxury property investments, potentially shifting focus to mid-range housing. Increased Capital Gains Tax (CGT) rates ranging from 30 per cent for companies and 15-25 per cent for individuals may affect property valuations and investment decisions,” he said.

    He said there will be VAT exemptions for residential properties, while commercial properties and construction services are still subject to 7.5 percent VAT. Adebayo, however, said that there will be withholding tax exemptions for Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) aimed at promoting investment in the sector.

    Expectedly, the new tax regime aims to boost revenue, promote transparency, and encourage affordable housing. It will slow luxury sales and impact investor confidence.

    Chief Operating Officer, QShelter, Adegbenga Alamu, said the new tax regime will have no negative effect on real estate. He said for Home Buyers, the interest is allowable as deduction before taxation, and it encourages people to buy from their savings.

    The capital market is expectant as the new tax laws take off. Market pundits expect harmonisation of taxes, clarity and certain reliefs in the new tax laws to positively impact corporate earnings, and thus the attractiveness and liquidity of the market.

    However, there were concerns about the possible negative effect of the introduction of what stakeholders described as excessive Capital Gains Tax (CGT).

    Managing Director, High Cap Securities, David Adonri, said while investors were not averse to overdue tax reform, the issue of Capital Gains Tax (CGT) has continued to fuel anxiety in the capital market.

    He said: “Soon after the enactment of the new Tax Act, equities reacted with a massive selloff due to the reintroduction of CGT at a massive rate of 30 per cent for transactions above N150 million. The selloffs stopped when the Minister of Finance promised to review the policy.” However, now that we are approaching implementation without concrete action, nobody can predict the reaction of investors moving forward.”

    A Senior Investment Banker and Fellow of Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers (CIS), Abiodun Adeniran, also agreed that CGT was a major concern, but expressed optimism that the engagement between market stakeholders and the government would find a positive balance.

    “The specific capital market concern is on the CGT, and there are ongoing efforts in collaboration with the relevant authorities on how to mitigate the effects,” Adeniran said.

    Like in other sectors, operators in the Aviation Industry have expressed worry on how the implementation of the new tax law will affect air travel and other allied aviation services.

    Pilot and Aviation Economist, Captain Samuel Caulcrick and the Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Aero Contractors, Charles Grant, opined that the new tax regime could plunge the air transport into further crisis, akin to similar fears expressed by the Chairman/CEO of Air Peace Airline, Allen Onyema.

    The airline chiefs have urged the Federal Government to deepen engagement with players across the economic spectrum, so as to achieve seamless and effective implementation of the new tax.

    Caulcrick warned that the economy, including the aviation ecosystem, could be negatively impacted and nosedive until everyone paid their fair share of taxes to the right coffers.

    He insisted that a market economy without a robust tax system lacked the main ingredient to prevent market distortions.

    Grant on his part, observed that   excessive taxation and policy inconsistencies, are crippling Nigerian airlines and threatening the sector’s capacity to contribute meaningfully to the economy.

    He insisted that the sector could not survive under the present newly introduced tax template.

    Grant said the government should see aviation as a platform for commerce, trade and integration, rather than a luxury to be slammed with high-end tax.

    “One cannot tax what doesn’t survive. You have to enable it before you extract,” he said.

    Grant said domestic passenger traffic had dropped by about three per cent since 2022, despite increasing travel demand in a country of over 200 million people.

    He attributed this decline to multiple taxes and rising operational costs, which he declared had pushed ticket prices beyond the reach of average travellers.

    He explained that airlines currently pay several levies, including Ticket Sales Charge (TSC), Passenger Service Charge (PSC), Value Added Tax (VAT), Customs Duties, navigation and over flight fees and ground-handling charges.

    These costs, he stated, make it difficult for the operators to remain profitable, or expand their route networks. “Passengers are being priced out, while airlines operate on razor-thin margins. The outcome is fewer flights, grounded aircraft, and job losses across the value chain.”

    He appealed to the government to restore VAT exemptions on aviation inputs, enforce Customs waivers and eliminate overlapping taxes that make air travel more expensive in Nigeria than in most African markets.

    The President of Association of Micro-Entrepreneurs of Nigeria (AMEN), Prince Savior Iche, raised a red flag over the potential economic fallout of the federal government’s newly signed tax reforms. Speaking on the implications of the Nigeria Tax Act 2025, Iche warned that the implementation of the new fiscal policies is set to trigger a significant hike in the prices of essential commodities, further squeezing the disposable income of average Nigerians.

    The AMEN leader expressed deep concern that the legislative changes would exacerbate the existing high cost of living, which many households are already struggling to manage. He pointed to the lingering effects of previous fiscal adjustments, specifically the Value Added Tax (VAT) increase implemented during the administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari, as a primary source of the current economic hardship. According to Iche, many Nigerians are already “paying through their nose” due to the cumulative weight of various taxes and levies.

    A significant point of contention for the micro-entrepreneurial body is the impact of transaction-based taxes. Iche highlighted the burden of daily charges on bank transactions, noting that the frequency and volume of these deductions often go unnoticed by policymakers but represent a substantial drain on the capital of small business owners and the savings of ordinary citizens. He questioned whether the government truly appreciates the extent of the financial strain these incremental charges place on the public.

    “Everything will escalate and increase the cost of living,” Iche stated, emphasising that the new tax regime could not have come at a worse time. He argued that instead of providing relief, the upcoming changes might lead to a price surge across various sectors, as businesses seek to offset their increased tax liabilities by passing the costs onto consumers.

  • THE 2026 OUTLOOK: PROLOGUE

    THE 2026 OUTLOOK: PROLOGUE

    Nigeria’s audition year

    Nigeria does not step into 2026 so much as it drifts there, bearing the weight of a previous year that refused to end quietly.

    The country arrives with receipts folded into its pocket—grievances, catastrophes, breakthroughs and aspirations—each rustling to fate’s torrid leash.

    This is not a threshold crossed cleanly. It is a season entered with the gait of a people who have learned to listen for danger and opportunity at the same time.

    Nothing about 2026 feels incidental. Politics hums beneath ordinary speech, turning casual conversations into coded rehearsals. And every movement of the state seems angled toward a reckoning that lies a year ahead. The 2027 elections have leaked into the present, colouring legislation, stiffening alliances, and accentuating betrayals. The country senses this instinctively; a republic can feel when it is being tested, after all.

    This is the year when institutions reveal their efficiency depths, perhaps. Habits, hardened over decades will surface under pressure. The reflex to litigate politics, manage dissent instead of listening to it, and celebrate reforms faster than outcomes can mature, will meet a citizenry whose patience has thinned into hostile scrutiny.

    The ruling party, All Progressives Congress (APC), enters the year psyched with ambition yet plagued by unease. Size, in Nigerian politics, has never guaranteed coherence. It breeds factions, competing centres of gravity, and rival interpretations of loyalty. Party congresses loom, and with them the familiar permutations: parallel meetings, disputed delegates, and consensus discovered after dissent has been buried. Courts, once again, will be invited to settle quarrels that party execs and ideology fail to resolve.  The judiciary will be tasked with lending legitimacy to disputes that should have been resolved long before robes entered the picture and injunctions became headline.

    Opposition politics moves differently, less encumbered by incumbency yet equally haunted by fragmentation. Economic pressure has given opposition language an edge it lacked in easier years. Inflation, transport costs, food prices no longer sound like abstract failures when spoken aloud. The impact is felt in kitchens and register at bus stops. Whether opposition figures cohere into a credible alternative matters less, for now, than the fact that competition itself has grown volatile. The certainty of outcomes has thinned as opposition politics, once strategised and choreographed, now improvises with guerrilla tactics.

    Inside the National Assembly, re-election anxiety influence behaviour as legislators listen more closely to party structures than to public mood. Oversight softens and controversial bills travel faster than persuasion ever could. The logic is brutally simple: survival first, principle later. Or never.

    This atmosphere makes law itself feel provisional. Nowhere is this clearer than in the arguments surrounding taxation. The tax reform laws scheduled to take effect at the beginning of 2026 have exposed a deeper crisis than statutory interpretation. Civil society groups question process as lawmakers dispute texts. The Presidency distances itself even as the chair of the tax reform committee offers clarification. Each political actor attempts to anchor/project authority, yet the real issue lies elsewhere.

    Trust is scarce in the Nigerian clime, hence, the process requires moral substance beyond procedural detail. When citizens suspect that laws can shape-shift between passage and publication, obedience erodes irredeemably. Taxation, more than any other policy, depends on belief, but while the state may compel payment, it cannot compel consent. Thus, compliance may congeal to resentment and even, sabotage, as distrust persists. This is the terrain 2026 inherits.

    Through it all, the economy splays into the year bearing bruises. Subsidy removal, currency volatility, and inflation have morphed from economic shocks to social conditions. Small businesses have collapsed and those that haven’t remain locked in an intense struggle against doomsday contingence. As households learn resilience in the face of militating odds, the government’s mantra of hope remains disciplined and insistent. Yet, the citizens adamantly ask: where is the relief?

    The figures are sobering. The proposed 2026 federal budget stands at roughly N58.18 trillion, ambitious in scale yet constricted by obligation. Debt servicing alone consumes N15.52 trillion. The deficit, projected at about 4.28 percent of GDP, bellows a familiar truth: the state dreams loudly while interest waits patiently. Nigeria’s public debt, reported at N152.4 trillion by mid-2025, shadows every promise made at the podium.

    A vast federal budget, heavy debt service obligations, and a persistent deficit sketch a portrait of ambition under constraint. Public debt figures requires governments at all levels to demonstrate that borrowing translates into tangible improvement. As the pressures of reform travel downward, impacting citizens already stretched thin, anger will not stem solely from hardship. Nigerians have endured difficulty before, what stings is asymmetry: sacrifice preached downward the economic totem pole, while insulation persists above. Calls for citizenry endurance must be matched by ruling class restraint. Evidence of transparent accounting and governance will matter more than rhetoric.

    Yet electoral pressure will accelerate action: 2026 will witness a surge of visible projects. Roads will multiply, power interventions will be announced, the security architecture will expand even as agricultural programmes reappear. But while some initiatives will reflect genuine intent, others will manifest as hurried legacies dressed for inspection.

    For business and investment, activity will persist despite macroeconomic stress. Agriculture will draw attention, driven by food insecurity’s political and economic weight. Agro-processing and value-chain infrastructure will beckon capital. Technology will continue its ascent, powered by a youth economy impatient with inefficiency. Fintech, digital services, and innovation hubs will expand where regulation allows scale. Energy will remain central as renewables, mini-grids, and embedded generation attract focus, responding to a power supply that taxes every enterprise. Still, opportunity will coexist with hazard. Policy inconsistency, regulatory surprises, insecurity, and permit politics will test resilience while agility rivals capital as a survival skill.

    Read Also: Oyetola, Basiru, APC leaders, group plot winning strategy for 2026 Osun guber seat

    This year, global currents will reshape domestic stakes. As the competition for critical minerals intensifies, supply chains will reorganise under protectionist pressure. For Nigeria, endowed with resources yet scarred by extractive history, the moment intones dual potential: local value addition could open doors to jobs and industrial depth. Transparent licensing and processing capacity could also shift the country’s role in global supply chains. Beyond the signalling of reform and intent to revolutionise the sector, the measure of success will lie in due process and credible institutions. Systems that resist corruption and reward patience will determine whether 2026 marks an industrial pivot or another chapter of export bereft of development.

    Security, too, enters the year wearing a harder face and heavier boots. The 2026 budget assigns N5.41 trillion to defence and internal security—the largest single allocation to any sector—thus signalling more proactive and aggressive security measures. A new model of surveillance and consolidation of military operations: unified command, and intelligence-led operations, may trigger a decisive shift in the extermination of bandits, terrorists, militias, and armed separatists. Such a measure could also ignite a reclassification of such non-state actors into a single category—terrorists—stripped of romantic euphemism.

    As President Tinubu’s administration emphasises a new culture of digital sovereignty, AI-assisted intelligence, nationwide digital forensics laboratories, and cyber defences built around financial and energy infrastructure, it must assert legitimacy at the grassroots through the Renewed Hope Ward Development Plan, an attempt to seed community intelligence across 8,809 wards.

    Yet money and digitised architecture may not adequately resolve geographic threats, if the northwest and northcentral regions remain porous, letting bandits and kidnappers exploit roam free. This may manifest more severely as humanitarian agencies warn of disruption of farming cycles at the peak of May season.

    Baring more decisive military operations, the northeast may further herald terrorist persistence in the blind spots of Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa; the southeast may simmer with separatist terror that flares unpredictably, despite official claims of gradual normalisation. The Niger Delta hums with the threat of sabotage as militancy and electoral bargaining converge around pipelines and protection contracts. Nigeria remains ranked high on the Global Terrorism Index, travel advisories urge caution, as Sahelian disorder seep toward the country’s weakened borders.

    Over all, these tarnish projections for 2027, a season analysts fear could loosen restraint and invite politically induced instability, even as non-physical threats like cyber fraud and sabotage of financial systems rise in sophistication. The state chooses scale and technology as its answer, but the year will test whether intelligence can outrun distrust, and security, pursued ambitiously, can still be felt in ordinary lives.

    Yet 2026 will not manifest only through anxiety. It also arrives swathed in spectacle and rhythm. Nigeria’s story has never been told by power alone. It has always been completed elsewhere: on dance floors, in recording studios, inside stadiums, and across glowing phone screens held by young hands that refuse to be “handled.” If politics triggers tension, culture will provide the counterpoint.

    Nigeria’s entertainment industry enters 2026 quite confidently. According to PwC, the country’s entertainment and media sector, valued at about $9 billion, is projected to reach $13.6 billion by 2028, making it the fastest-growing in Africa. This growth outpaces global averages and places Nigeria ahead of peers like Kenya, projected at $4.8 billion, and narrows the gap with South Africa’s more mature market.

    The drivers are visible everywhere: social media amplifies culture and monetises it, and internet advertising revenue, alone, is expected to double reflecting 2023-2028 estimates. Afrobeats and Nollywood will continue their outward spiral, reaching audiences that once seemed unreachable as culture becomes Nigeria’s most persuasive diplomat.

    Indeed, entertainment is no longer a side conversation, it has become a serious economy and technology deepens the transformation: artificial intelligence transforms production as 5G reconstitutes space for cloud gaming, immersive streaming, and new storytelling forms. Infrastructure gaps persist yet the direction is unmistakable.

    Sport, however, tells a more complicated story as Nigeria enters 2026 nursing disappointment. The Super Eagles’ failure to qualify for the FIFA World Cup—following a loss to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in late 2025—resonates jarringly among football fans, even as local sports authorities petition FIFA over DRC’s fielding of ineligible players thus seeking participation through the back door. Symbolically, absence from the world’s biggest stage unsettles a nation that has long prided itself on its football prowess—not minding losses in prize money, global acclaim, and commercial revenue.

    The Africa Cup of Nations in Morocco yet awaits, with Super Eagles preparing for the knockout rounds under pressure to the redeem the narrative. The Super Falcons equally look to reenact their Women’s Africa Cup of Nations championship with storied vigour. Domestically, attention turns inward as the federal government proposes a N78 billion spending for sports development, the largest capital allocation in years.

    Thus, Nigeria enters 2026 with its options intact. The country can refine systems while leaving human experience peripheral. It can also dignify policies with empathy and so doing earn the citizenry’s enduring goodwill and trust.

    In the end, this year will serve as an audition. Every nation approaching an election year lives through a rehearsal. For Nigeria, that rehearsal is called 2026.

  • 2026: Year of realignments, defining political battles

    2026: Year of realignments, defining political battles

    The eyes of the world are on Nigeria as the Africa’s most populous country warms up for 2027 electioneering. Political parties are preparing for congresses and conventions. Aspirants are returning to the drawing board. The National Assembly is amending the 1999 Constitution and reworking the Electoral Act. Deputy Editor, Emmanuel Oladesu, examines the power players, events and factors that will shape politics this year.

    Political conflicts, expectedly, would characterise most parts of the year, being the period of nominations for the general election and a critical year preceding another handover. The contestation would cut across parties, tiers of government, districts, and constituencies.

    Politicians would return to the drawing board to perfect strategies for scheming, horse trading and compromises. Intra-party rifts over shadow polls and inter-party crisis arising from hot competition and campaigns for power may unleash tension on the polity. There would, as usual, be resort to media war and propaganda.

    Attention may wholly shift from governance to politicking. Resignations from the federal cabinet and state executive councils, party congresses, zoning or rotational agitations, and partisan endorsements would serve as a prelude to the titanic battle of choice, change or affirmation of leadership.

    POWER PLAYERS

    Bola Ahmed Tinubu

    President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is on the hot seat. But he is determined to make Nigeria work. He is living up to expectation by fulfilling many of his campaign promises. But, much still needs to be accomplished.

    According to observers, he faces three challenges as he prepares for the third anniversary of his administration. These are economy, security and his quest for deserving continuity, which would gear up his rivals in other parties for determined or feeble resistance.

    From major indications, the economy is stabilising, thanks to bold socio-economic reforms. But there are still complaints that macro-economic stability without corresponding improvement in the quality of life of the citizenry does not inspire hope. Government has reported a revenue surge, following the blockage of loopholes in the oil sector and the strengthening of revenue generating agencies.

    On this front, the much-heralded tax reforms would come under further scrutiny. Last closed to controversy over the legislations following claims that what was gazetted was different from what the National Assembly passed. President Tinubu and his team insisted that this wasn’t the case and pressed on despite the spirited efforts of opposition figures to delegitimise the reforms. The world would be watching to see if the new legislations help the government achieve its pre-stated goals.

    Economic experts have advised that the money should be channelled into productive activities and promotion of public welfare, particularly by the sub-national units. Improvement should reflect in job creation, infrastructural development, revival of the manufacturing sector, stable electricity, consistent investment flow, and conducive environment for business growth.

    Security, as from this year, would be a major campaign issue. It is gratifying that apart from the military assistance and collaboration with the Unites States military, the Nigerian Armed Forces have doubled their efforts to rid the country of terror. Major breakthroughs are being recorded.

    Many of the security challenges, as argued by observers, may be politically motivated. Despite the improvement much still needs to be accomplished, and with speed.

    Nigerians expect the actualisation of state or multi-layer policing through constitutional amendment by the National Assembly. The lawmakers – many of who cannot even go to their towns, constituencies and districts out of fear of banditry, kidnapping and other forms of violence – should take up the challenge of constitution review with patriotism and passion in the new year.

    Eyes will also be on the highly rated Minister of Defence, General Christopher Musa, to justify the huge confidence reposed in him by Nigerians across the six zones. He has been pulled back from retirement to take up the patriotic duty of liberating the North from terror and banditry. With the right military tactics, strategies, personnel, equipment and cooperation of all stakeholders, he should be able to make a difference, and without controversy over real or imagined ransom payment.

    There is no doubt that President Tinubu’s re-election prospects would be significantly boosted by any success he is able to achieve in the war against insecurity. Aside collaboration with foreign powers, there is also effort being made to procure more armaments for the armed forces. Hopefully, these efforts would change narrative for the better in large parts of Northern Nigeria.

    In his ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Tinubu, who has been endorsed for a second term, may be warming up for a coronation as candidate during the presidential convention. But the endorsement by the majority does not prevent interested stalwarts from throwing their hats into the ring. The only difference between APC and other parties is that presidential nomination squabble or tension in the ruling party would be so minimal while the opposition parties may still have to contend with peculiar internal contradictions, division and other inevitable partisan hurdles.

    As a politician and active player, the president’s attention may be distracted by power play and scheming that’s bound to dominate 2026 as the country builds up to next year’s general election.

    Atiku Abubakar and ADC

    At almost 80, the lion is still roaring, but there is no prey in sight to devour. For the old political warhorse, 2026 is critical to a long standing ambition to rule Nigeria, an aspiration he developed 33 years ago.

    On six occasions – 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023, the crown eluded him, owing to a combination of factors, including wrong timing, bad strategy, impatience, miscalculation, inconsistency, zoning and diminishing public affection for his brand. This has cast doubt on his pedigree as a learner at the feet of the great Tafida Katsina, General Shehu Yar’Adua, founder of Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM).

    Yet, Atiku can only be ignored to the peril of his opponents in contemporary Nigerian politics. The former vice president came second in the 2023 elections with over seven million votes. He is undaunted and fired by courage. But his platform is now somehow defective, less formidable and fast regressing into a status of mere social club of old Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) comrades.

    His exit from PDP, which he co-founded in 1998/99, to the little known African Democratic Congress (ADC), which affirmed the split in the PDP, was a turning point in his political career.  No governor defected along with him; not even the governor of his native Adamawa State, Ahmadu Fintiri.

    ADC is not waxing stronger, despite the bravado and boastings by the gerontocrats around Atiku, who have lost effective mobilisation prowess in their states. It is not breaking new grounds; it is not making in-roads into the South, Northwest and North-Central.

    Also, the proposed coalition has not seen the light of the day. There is deep-seated friction among the coalition partners neck-deep in discussions on the platform of fragile parties.

    Why the coalition is troubled is that those around the former VP convey the impression that there is a predetermined agenda to make Atiku its presidential candidate. 

    The activities of the party are not held at its secretariat. ADC holds court in the Atiku campaign office in Abuja.

    Zoning is not an issue, and whether there should be power rotation between the North and South is not the concern of those now taking refuge in ADC. If the presidential bid of Atiku collapses, the party goes with it.

    In short, the coalition or alliance isn’t gathering traction because there was no agreement on its leadership structure, philosophy, focus, and candidate. Its goal of removing Tinubu as president is restrictive. There is even quarrel among Southwest, Southeast and South-South members about the choice of presidential running mate ahead of the convention.

    Where is the coalition curator, Nasir El-Rufai, in all these coalition drive? How effective is regional bullying? Who are the new faces being attracted into the so-called movement? Why are governors, ex-governors and National Assembly members shunning the platform and gravitating to APC?

    Former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi, who has been part of the coalition talks, has finally joined ADC. Not all the chieftains of the crisis-ridden Labour Party (LP) defected along with him. Governor Alex Otti said he preferred to broker peace in the party instead of jumping ship.

    Details of the agreement that motivated him to join the party are unknown. For now, the only implication of his defection is that the 2027 contest may be a three-horse race involving majorly President Tinubu of the ruling APC, and the candidates of PDP and ADC.

    Read Also: 2026: Achudume calls for integrity, accountability

    Peter Obi

    Peter Obi, symbol of the ‘Obedient Movement,’ is intensifying consultations on his presidential ambition, which collapsed in 2023, despite his over six million votes.

    Factors that aided him then were ethnicity and religion, which were exploited to devastating effects. A serial defector, Obi would have defected to the ADC before now, but the potential offer of running mate to Atiku was not encouraging to his group, which hibernated in the crisis-ridden LP. It is confounding that a politician who cannot resolve the LP logjam and unite the Julius Abure and Nenadi-Usman factions is vying for president of the most populous and heterogeneous country in Africa.

    Unless Atiku declines to contest, which is a remote possibility, Obi’s best bet is LP, despite the polarisation and diminishing appeal of a third force. But his ditching the platform for ADC suggests that he no longer sees it as a viable vehicle to actualise his ambition.

    If Atiku contests, it may seal Obi’s chances of getting the ticket. There are strong suggestions that he may have settled for the lesser option of running as Atiku’s number two. That prospect is likely to polarise his base. Already, the likes of Professor Pat Utomi have vowed to withdraw support if the former Anambra governor accepts the undercard option.

    Obi is a critic without facts, a champion of geographical expression, a beneficiary of politico-religious manipulation and an inconsistent contestant – always eager to lean on a borrowed platform, but lacking the leadership skills required for party nurturing, crisis-resolution, reconciliation, cohesion and harmony.

    Still, he remains visible by the grace of his internet warriors who may not be able to convert propaganda to votes. How he will upstage Atiku in ADC is left to be seen.

    Rabiu Kwankwaso

    A lone ranger, the eminent politician remains an idol in Kano, where his party, the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), holds sway.

    But recently his Kwakwanshiya group has been decimated. APC leaders, including Deputy Senate President Jibrin Barau and former national chairman Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, are working hard to pull the rug from off his feet. Some observers, however, don’t believe that this onslaught heralds Kwakwanso’s displacement as a factor in Kano.

    Also, the lone NNPP governor of Kano, Abba Yusuf, has opened talks with the APC on possible defection. Throughout the last week events leading to his decamping have been building up. Matters came to a head with a Kano State High Court court affirming the suspension of Kwankwaso ally, Hashimu Suleiman-Dungurawa, as Kano NNPP state chairman.

    In his place Hon. Abdullahi Zubairu Abiya, favoured by those loyal to Governor Yusuf, was confirmed Acting State Chairman. In reaction the National Working Committee (NWC) of the party dissolved ward, Local Government and state executive committees across the state. All these underscore the cracks in the party.

    APC and ADC are making gestures to the NNPP leader for collaboration. So far, there has been no convincing response. But predictably, Kwankwaso will not be off the radar during the electioneering.

    The PDP factions

    The PDP is currently down. Its two factions, led by Tanimu Turaki (SAN) and Nyesom Wike/Sam Anyanwu, are in court waging a supremacy war. The gladiators in rival camps are flexing muscles.

    The main opposition party has been in turmoil since the 2022 presidential convention. Its leadership has been a subject of dispute. But with four loyal governors – Ahmadu Fintiri (Adamawa), Bala Mohammed (Bauchi), Dauda Lawal (Zamfara) and Seyi Makinde (Oyo), PDP is still stronger than the Alliance for Democracy (AD) of old which went with the wind of the Afenifere crisis. Makinde is said to be eyeing its presidential ticket.

    The outcome of the litigation over the party leadership will show the way forward for the PDP ahead of the electioneering. The prospects don’t look good. The Bala Mohammed-Makinde wing of party defied two clear judgments to hold its Ibadan convention which threw up the disputed Turaki leadership.

    That legal roadblock recently forced the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to expressly state it doesn’t recognise the outcome of the convention held in the Oyo State capital.

    Those legal woes are also blamed for the mass defection of the party’s governors to APC in recent times out of fear that they may not have a platform to prosecute their re-election.

    Most observers argue that unless calmer heads within the party are able to unite all stakeholders around the caretaker leadership proposal, PDP would still be in legal coma when voters go to the polls in March next year.

    Nyesom Wike and the Rivers factors

    Love him or hate him, the Federal Capital Territory Minister, Nyesom Wike, has become a political factor no one can ignore. His bitter fight with Atiku over the 2023 PDP presidential ticket snowballed into the mutually assured destruction that has brought the main opposition party to its knees. While the former fled to a platform where his word would be law, Wike remains in PDP fighting a rearguard battle for control.

    Having fallen out with the Atiku wing of the party, the former Rivers State governor’s embrace of Tinubu’s presidential was a masterstroke that delivered his state’s strategic votes to APC. Ever since, the incumbent president has held him close – no doubt aware of his political value.

    This year would see the political collaboration between the two men continue despite the differences Wike has with his erstwhile godson, Governor Siminalayi Fubara.

    The minister is currently executing an interesting political manoeuvre that sees him exercising influence in Rivers APC and PDP. He openly declared last month that the structures of the two parties had coalesced into one to further the reelection bid of President Tinubu.

    It’s a different matter entirely when it comes to Fubara’s second term ambition. Despite the governor’s defection to the APC, many observers say a scenario similar to that which played out in Lagos State, where former Governor Akinwumi Ambode was denied a return ticket, could play out in Rivers. In fact, the peace deal which Fubara signed to secure calm in his domain may well be the noose currently hanging around his neck.

    But more than anything, his relationship with Wike is clearly irretrievably broken. So, in the coming months, expect more war songs and jibes like ‘Dey your dey, make I dey my dey,’ ‘As e dey pain dem, e dey sweet us’, followed by the most comic of dance steps. Rivers State politics is set to serve up the most entertaining drama in the run up to 2027.

    INEC, by-elections and reforms

    The Chairman of INEC, Prof. Ojo Amupitan (SAN), would have an opportunity to prove his mettle as an umpire.

    He has two senatorial by-elections to conduct in Ondo South, where Senator Jimoh Ibrahim is vacating his seat to take up an ambassadorial appointment, and Delta North, where a vacancy now exists, following the death of  Senator Peter Nwaoboshi.

    Then, Ekiti and Osun governorship polls will follow. What Nigerians expect from Amupitan is the sustenance of the reforms initiated by his precedessor, Prof. Yakubu Mahmood, in his bid to foster transparency and accountability. The greatest expectation is the electronic uploading, display and transmission of results.

    INEC will be rightly guided by the 1999 Constitution (as amended) and the Electoral Act.

    Currently, 18 political parties are on its register. In September last year, 14 associations that applied for registration were shortlisted for vetting. The commission would have to take a final decision on their qualification for registration.

    A source said some prominent northerners are behind one of the associations. They look forward to the registration which will provide an opportunity for a platform outside PDP, ADC, NNPP and LP to challenge the ruling APC in 2027.

    INEC will commence the implementation of the electioneering schedule through its observation of the party congresses and convention. APC is likely to hold its national convention in March.

    Ekiti election

    Ekiti is warming up for an off-season governorship election. The candidate to beat is Governor Biodun Oyebanji of APC, who is seeking re-election. The poll would be a referendum on his performance as governor. While Oyebanji would be highlighting his achievements during the campaigns, other flagbearers – Ambassador Dare Bejide of ADC and Dr. Wole Oluyede of PDP – would be soliciting for votes based on their campaign promises.

    Oluyede’s prospects are, however, uncerstain given that his name was missing from the provisional list of candidates released by INEC. It was a fallout of the PDP leadership crisis. INEC has refused to recognise the two factions locked in supremacy battle.

    There are 16 local governments in Ekiti. They are run by APC chieftains. The members of the House of Assembly and Representatives, and three senators also belong to the ruling party.

    Apart from the four predecessors – Niyi Adebayo, Ayo Fayose, Segun Oni and Kayode Fayemi – who are rooting for Oyebanji, many prominent indigenes, traditional rulers, religious leaders, women and youth groups have endorsed him for a second term.

    But there are also those against him in the party over the outcome of the primary that produced him as standard bearer. These are the supporters of Kayode Ojo, an engineer from Ikoro-Ekiti and University of Nigeria, Nsukka (UNN) Pro-chancellor, who are not happy about his disqualification, based on party guidelines.

    Without them, Oyebanji will win. But the onus is on the party leadership to reconcile the aggrieved elements with the fold. However, no election can be a walk over. Over-confidence should be avoided. The ruling party cannot afford to sleep on guard.

    Certain elements in Ekiti are peddling falsehood about zoning. This is not a factor in the state. The state was divided into three senatorial districts for political expediency. From the days of Pelupelu, Ekiti has been one indivisible zone.

    Osun poll

    This exercise will generate excitment in the Southwest and beyond. Three candidates – Dancing Governor Ademola Adeleke of Accord Party (AP), Bola Oyebamiji of APC and Najeem Salam of ADC will clash during in a titanic battle for the soul of the State of Living Springs.

    The three of them once belonged to APC. Adeleke, son of Senator Ayoola Adeleke, is younger brother of the grassroots politician, Senator Isiaka Serubawon Adeleke. He succeeded him in the Senate after his demise.

    Oyebamiji was a commissioner under former Governor Gboyega Oyetola when Salam was Speaker of the House of Assembly.

    Zoning is a settled matter. The trio are from Osun West Senatorial District to which the tickets were unofficially zoned. Their running mates, who would be announced soon, would come from either Osun Central or Ife/Ijesa axis.

    Adeleke, a populist governor and entertainer, was running from pillar to post after his original party, PDP, ran into trouble. Although a loyal party member, he had to defect to Accord to avoid uncertainties. The elite of Osun believe that his performing is not impressive. But he is popular among the masses who love his unconventional ways.

    Adeleke will lean on the wealth of his illustrious family and the support of the distressed PDP chapter during the poll. The three PDP senators have vowed to support the President’s second term ambition. They are likely to extend the same gesture to the APC governorship candidate.

    The governor has promised to mobilise for President Tinubu’s re-election. But the president’s party is at loggerheads with him. He faces a dilemma.

    The most experienced and prepared candidate is Oyebamiji, former Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of the National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA), Lokoja. The people of Osun take him serious because he has no baggage. He is competent, resourceful and highly knowledgeable about state finance and financial engineering. However, there is need for deeper reconciliation to halt post-primary crisis arising from the consensus option. While real opponents pose threats, internal opposition can undermine strategies for victory.

    ADC is seriously mobilising in Osun. The mobilisation has kept the national secretary, Chief Rauf Aregbesola, busy. But, there is a crack in the chapter. The supporters of Moshood Adeoti were dazed that the leader could dump the deputy leader for the former Speaker.

    Analysts have predicted a stiff contest in Osun as former colleagues in the same party clash because of political differences.

    All in all, 2026 promises to be an exciting year where some individuals would rise politically and others would consolidate their positions. But it could also presage the retirement of some old warhorses who have dominated the power space in the last three to four decades.  

  • National Security: Prospects and challenges

    National Security: Prospects and challenges

    As Nigeria moves toward 2026, its national security environment is under sustained pressure from multiple, overlapping threats. Terrorism, banditry, kidnapping, separatist violence and election-related risks now cut across regions, stretching the capacity of the state and testing the resilience of its security institutions.
    The challenge is no longer defined solely by firepower. Criminal and extremist networks increasingly overlap, forests and cyberspace have become active security frontiers, and public expectations for both safety and accountability continue to rise. In response, Nigeria’s security strategy is being forced to evolve toward intelligence-led operations, deeper inter-agency coordination and preventive action.
    Against this backdrop, 2026 emerges as a critical test for the country’s security architecture, the military, intelligence services and the police, whose collective performance will shape national stability in the lead-up to the 2027 general elections. NICHOLAS KALU, MUSA UMAR BOLOGI AND GBENGA OMOKHUNU report:

    DSS under Ajayi — Quiet reforms, hard choices and the 2026 test

    As Nigeria confronts one of its most complex internal security environments in more than a decade, the Department of State Services (DSS) has operated largely outside public glare, yet remains central to whether the country stabilises or slips deeper into cycles of violence. Under its current Director-General, Mr. Oluwatosin Adeola Ajayi, the Service has embarked on a cautious but notable recalibration, one that prioritises intelligence discipline, inter-agency synergy and institutional restraint.

    With 2026 approaching as a politically sensitive and security-heavy year, the DSS stands at a defining moment: to consolidate recent gains or be overwhelmed by rising expectations.

    Ajayi assumed office in August 2024, at a time when confidence in Nigeria’s intelligence architecture had been shaken. His emergence marked a deliberate shift away from confrontation-driven internal security management toward a more methodical intelligence-first posture.

    One of the earliest indicators of this shift was the DSS’s compliance with court orders on prolonged detentions. In 2025, the Service quietly released several individuals previously held without trial and paid court-mandated compensations in cases of unlawful detention. These actions, acknowledged by senior legal stakeholders, helped to de-escalate long-running tensions between the DSS, the judiciary and civil society.

    Though not dramatic in operational terms, these steps restored a measure of institutional credibility and reduced legal distractions that had historically drained the Service’s focus.

    Operational achievements beneath the surface

    Operationally, the DSS under Ajayi has focused less on publicity and more on intelligence coordination. This approach became evident in high-value counter-terrorism outcomes recorded in 2025, particularly the arrest of senior Ansaru terrorist leaders Abu Baraa and Mahmuda, figures linked to the Kuje correctional facility attack and multiple high-profile abductions in the North-West and North-Central regions.

    According to the Office of the National Security Adviser, the arrests followed months of layered intelligence work involving surveillance, human intelligence and technical tracking, signalling a maturation of intelligence fusion involving the DSS, military intelligence and other agencies.

    A key policy turning point came late in 2025 when President Bola Tinubu directed the DSS to deploy trained forest guards nationwide, tasking them with flushing out terrorists and bandits exploiting Nigeria’s vast forest corridors.

    The directive placed the DSS at the centre of a new territorial intelligence strategy, one that recognises forests not just as military theatres but as intelligence ecosystems requiring sustained presence, local sources and long-term monitoring. For Ajayi, the challenge has been translating training into operational effectiveness without over-militarising intelligence roles.

    Challenges moving into 2026

    The DSS faces formidable challenges in 2026 which include expanding threat geography, with terrorism, banditry and separatist violence no longer confined to predictable regions, intelligence saturation, as multiple threats compete for limited analytical and operational resources, election-related risks, with the 2027 general elections approaching, heightening the risk of politically motivated violence, sabotage and foreign interference, and public expectation gaps, as Nigerians increasingly demand visible security outcomes from institutions designed to operate invisibly

    Looking ahead, several trends are likely to define the DSS under Ajayi in 2026:

    Intelligence before force

    The DSS is expected to deepen its emphasis on preventive intelligence, prioritising disruption of plots before they manifest into attacks. This includes tighter monitoring of extremist financing, online radicalisation and cross-border movements.

    Technology-driven intelligence

    With increased budgetary allocation to the security sector, the DSS is projected to expand investments in signals intelligence, cyber-monitoring and data analytics, enhancing early-warning capacity.

    Deeper inter-agency fusion

    Successful joint operations in 2025 are likely to encourage more structured intelligence-sharing platforms between the DSS, the military, the Police and ONSA, reducing duplication and rivalry.

    Election security role

    Without direct visibility, the DSS will play a critical background role in election security, identifying flashpoints, monitoring political violence triggers and advising preventive deployments.

    Rights-sensitive operations

    Ajayi’s early corrective steps suggest the Service will continue balancing security enforcement with legal compliance, aware that legitimacy strengthens intelligence cooperation at community levels.

    Conclusion

    Under Oluwatosin Adeola Ajayi, the DSS has begun a careful transformation, away from institutional defensiveness toward disciplined intelligence leadership. While the Service remains constrained by secrecy and structural limits, its recent achievements in counter-terrorism coordination, legal compliance and strategic restraint suggest a more mature internal security posture.

    In 2026, the DSS will be judged not by visibility, but by absence, the attacks that do not happen, the crises quietly defused, and the intelligence failures avoided. Whether Ajayi’s reforms endure under mounting pressure will determine the Service’s true contribution to Nigeria’s national security in the year ahead.

    From insurgency to banditry: Nigeria’s Armed Forces stretched across multiple fronts

    Nigeria’s security landscape became increasingly tense towards the end of 2025, as the armed forces found themselves severely overstretched, waging simultaneous battles against a resurgence of terrorism and criminal violence. The military has continued to confront Boko Haram and its splinter groups—the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Jamā’at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da’wah wa’l-Jihād (JAS)—in the North East, alongside persistent banditry and kidnappings in the North West, violent herder attacks across the North Central region, and secessionist agitation in the South East.

    The intensity of the threats spread to North Central states such as Kwara, which had hitherto been largely spared since the escalation of insecurity following the emergence of Boko Haram in the North East in 2009; by the tail end of the year, the deteriorating situation was underscored by the abduction and killing of several people, kidnapping of more than 400 students/pupils, teachers, and other citizens in November alone.

    Read Also: Lagos security model standard for sub-national security architecture — APC

    At least 230 schoolchildren and 12 teachers were abducted from a Catholic boarding school in Niger State, 24 girls from Government Girls’ Comprehensive Secondary School (GGCSS) in Maga, Kebbi State, 34 worshippers from a church in Kwara State, a bride, bridesmaids and several others in Chacho village, Wurno Local Government Area of Sokoto State.

    In addition, several innocent civilians were killed by terrorists, bandits, and kidnappers across the North-East, North-West, and North-Central regions. The deteriorating situation became so precarious that President Bola Tinubu was compelled to declare a state of emergency on security. By this declaration, the President directed the Police, Department of State Service (DSS), and the Nigerian Army to recruit more personnel to boost their manpower. He also directed the DSS  to immediately deploy all the forest guards already trained “to flush out the terrorists and bandits lurking in our forests”, declaring that “there will be no more hiding places for agents of evil.”

    The President’s directive put the Armed Forces on high alert, prompting a reorganisation of the command structure through the appointment of new operational commanders and the intensification of operations to crush terrorists and kidnappers, while ensuring the release of abducted victims, including all the 230 schoolchildren and 12 teachers were abducted from a Catholic boarding school in Niger State, 24 girls from Government Girls’ Comprehensive Secondary School (GGCSS) in Maga, Kebbi State, and 34 worshippers from a church in Kwara State.

    Economic hope, insecurity fears

    At a time when the Tinubu administration was recording economic stability in early 2025, insecurity was on the rise. According to the Nigeria Development Update (NDU) released by the World Bank in October 2025, Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.9 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2025, up from 3.5 per cent in the same period of 2024. However, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) reported that the humanitarian situation in North-East Nigeria continued to deteriorate in April 2025 due to escalating conflict and rising insecurity.

    Military responses

    Despite the setbacks, the Nigerian military also recorded successes against armed groups across the theaters of operations.

    In October, the Defence Headquarters stated that in September 2025, troops rescued 180 kidnapped civilians, arrested 450 terrorists/bandits and killed scores of terrorists, bandits and other criminal elements. It also said that 39 terrorists surrendered to the troops, while 63 assorted arms, 4,475 ammunition and 294 explosive items such as grenades and IED marking materials were recovered.

    The Nigerian military has also confirmed that several terrorists were killed by Nigerian Air Force fighter aircraft along the Triangle, Triangle in Borno and Yobe states.

    In the South East, the military confirmed the killing of IPOB/ESN commanders, including Ifeanyi Okorienta, also known as Gentle de Yahoo, who had terrorised the region for years.

    And just recently, the United States, with the approval of the Nigerian government, launched  “powerful and deadly” strikes against groups affiliated with ISIL (ISIS), in the North West.

    Towards a more secured 2026

     President Bola Tinubu has promised a more secure country in 2026. This followed his presentation of the 2026 budget to the National Assembly, where he earmarked a massive N5.41 trillion to the defence, and security sector.

    The money would be spent, according to him, to increase the fighting capacity of the armed forces and other security agencies through improved personnel strength and the acquisition of advanced platforms and hardware.

    Short of men, stretched by Crime: Nigeria Police seek reset in 2026

    In 2026, Egbetokun’s leadership of the Nigeria Police Force will continue to face significant challenges related to funding, managing complex security threats, and institutional reforms; simultaneously, key prospects lie in leveraging community policing strategies, modernization efforts, and enhanced regional cooperation.

    The police this year (2026) face significant challenges in national security, including evolving cyber threats, organized crime fueled by drug and arms trafficking, and strained resources and public trust. Equally, crucial prospects lie in leveraging new technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI) and data analytics, enhancing inter-agency and international cooperation, and strengthening community policing initiatives to improve intelligence gathering and public relations.

    The force will contend with a rise in sophisticated, technology-driven crimes, including AI-driven cyberattacks, deepfakes used for disinformation and fraud, and the increasing convergence of illicit drugs and small arms trafficking fueling organized crime and extremism.

    Findings revealed that the police face a “brain drain” of experienced officers through retirement and attrition, and the struggle to recruit new personnel amid a challenging social climate.

    The development limits operational readiness and the ability to respond effectively to new demands of insecurity. This and many more issues has made President Bola Tinubu to order the recruitment of more personnel to tackle the insecurity challenges across the country, especially in the northern part.

    There’s a growing emphasis on creating specialized platforms for real-time, actionable threat intelligence sharing among different security agencies and international partners to combat transnational threats like cybercrime and terrorism.

    The focus on community policing and public engagement strategies is a major prospect for building trust, gathering local intelligence, and fostering a collaborative environment for problem-solving with citizens and partners.

    The crisis in recruitment and retention is forcing a shift toward a more holistic approach focusing on officer wellness, job satisfaction, and a reevaluation of traditional career paths to attract and retain talent. The evolving threat landscape highlights the need for specialized training in areas like cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, and human rights, which presents an opportunity to professionalize the force and improve its legitimacy and effectiveness.

    This year, national security efforts for the police will be defined by a shift toward data-driven policing and managing a persistent workforce crisis. While technological integration offers significant prospects for efficiency, it simultaneously creates new challenges in governance, public trust, and the complexity of modern crime.

    Departments are increasingly adopting unified platforms that break down “data silos,” allowing for seamless information sharing between body-worn cameras, license plate readers, and surveillance systems.

    Findings has also revealed that the use of autonomous units for hazardous tasks, such as bomb disposal or search-and-rescue, is projected to grow, with a global market for law enforcement robots potentially reaching over $4.3 billion by the early 2030s. Virtual and Augmented Reality will become standard for high-stakes training, such as de-escalation techniques and responding to mental health crises, providing a controlled environment for complex scenarios.

    The NPF would also face election pressure, due to the fact that 2026 is preceding the 2027 general elections, the police will be strained by demands to secure polling sites, manage protests, and remain politically neutral in increasingly polarized environments.

    Recall that the Police Service Commission (PSC), in collaboration with the Nigeria Police Force (NPF) have commenced the recruitment process of Fifty Thousand (50,000) Police Constables into the Nigeria Police Force, as directed by President Bola Tinubu.

    The Presidential directive is aimed at strengthening community policing, enhancing internal security and expanding the manpower base of the Nigeria Police Force. The recruitment portal for applications from eligible Nigerians has been opened.

    Egbetokun has also sought for proactive policing and collaboration with other security agencies (e.g., the military) and international partners (e.g., AFRIPOL) as well as joint efforts, such as the “G-7” initiative among states to combat cross-border crime.

    Also, the implementation of a revised training curriculum for recruits, covering topics like human rights, computer studies, and the Police Act 2020, aims to enhance professionalism and align with international best practices.

    The police boss recently mandated all commands to implement action plans aimed at a 50% reduction in crime rates which, if successful, will further reduce the pressure faced by the force.  

    The wild north-west is rising into a broad warzone. Zamfara, Katsina, Kaduna and Sokoto are hit hardest by organized bandit gangs. Data gathered show that fatalities in this region exceeded 9,300 in 2023–25. Kidnappings reached 716 incidents. There were 290 incidents in 2024 alone.

    Rival criminal networks now openly terrorize villages: cattle rustling, mass shootings and child abductions are daily reality. In 2025 bandits even struck outside their old haunts – gunmen abducted 303 students in Niger State and 25 girls in Kebbi.

    A new group, Lakurwa, epitomizes the threat: it fuses Islamist extremism with outlaw tactics. These gangs hide in porous forests and demand record ransoms (one Delta family’s kidnappers asked ₦30 billion). The flashpoint is self-sustaining: villagers now pay “levies to NSAGs” (armed groups) just to farm.

    The result is a self-reinforcing insecurity cycle. In 2026, it is expected that these scenarios would be a thing of the past.

  • Battered by EU’s border bandits

    Battered by EU’s border bandits

    •Nigerian migrants relive tortuous experience in Algerian desert, Libyan prison
    •Libyan police starved, flogged us before meal- Survivors
    •Tunisian police stole our money, phones, endangered our lives on sea-Couple

    Hordes of Nigerian citizens are languishing and dying in North African deserts and prisons following brutal EU externalization policy that empowers the Arab nations and few others to brutalise, and dehumanize fellow Africans for the purpose of preventing them from passing their corridors to Europe. Discussions around the bestial policy partly featured at the 2025 National Migration Dialogue activities in commemoration of the International Migrants Day in Abuja. Unfortunately, some of the victimised migrants left the December 18 National Migration Dialogue more depressed as their perspective was absolutely ignored.  The event centred on rhetorics and not on the victims’ perspective. INNOCENT DURU examines the plight of the victims in the report.

    Goodluck, a 30-year-old, was full of life when left Nigeria for Libya recently.

    He travelled with full hopes of returning to the country better off than he left. Unfortunately, he came back worse off with a broken leg and damaged hand that reduced him to a vegetable.

    Prior to his trip to Libya, Goodluck had travelled to Germany in 2016 but got deported six years later. “I was into vocational studies in Germany. On the second to the last day of my exam, their police picked me and took me straight to the Munich Airport back to Nigeria,” Goodluck said, decrying the sad reality he faced on his return.  

    As an orphan, Goodluck said he nowhere to go to than the house of his married brother who also had huge responsibilities hanging on his neck.

    His words: “It was not easy coping. I suffered too much depression. I was admitted three times at the hospital. My BP rose very high at one point. On one occasion I collapsed and was rushed to the hospital. I was thinking too much because the situation was too unbearable for me. I could not cope because I didn’t even know where to start from.  As a barber, I tried doing something here under somebody but the more I tried, the more everything pointed to hopelessness.”

    In other climes, people like Goodluck are given some psycho-social support to help them shrug off the trauma they had suffered and gradually reintegrated back into the society. But that is not the case here. Deportees are rather mocked and treated with disdain for being failures in their journey abroad.

    Disenchanted with the distressing condition he found himself, Goodluck hit the road again and went to Algeria after getting some assistance from some of his friends. 

    From Algeria, he entered Libya and was doing a menial job.

    After some time, Goodluck said:  “I went to cross the Mediterranean Sea. We spent three days, on top of the sea.

    We even missed our way as we were moving on top of the sea. The waves were too much and some people fell into the sea. We could not rescue them and continued the journey.  We didn’t get any rescue for three days on the sea.  Subsequently, Libyan Police came. They arrested and took us to the prison.”

    Right from the prison, Goodluck reached out to his friends again. “They supported me financially to get bailed. After that I returned to doing menial work again.”

    After his bail, Goodluck received a good news that his people had started “my visa processing, and that I should come back to Nigeria.”

    Elated by the news, Goodluck decided to come back to Nigeria but it ended in woes for him.

    “On my way back to Nigeria, I was arrested by the Libyan Police and was taken to prison.  I tried to bail myself but they told me there’s no bail.  So, I spent three months and two weeks in prison. Within that period, we tried to escape from the prison because I was seeing people dying every day in the prison. It’s like a normal thing for people to die every day in the prison.”

    There in the prison, Goodluck said: “We were not eating good food. We were not even bathing because there was no soap. We couldn’t even brush. Each time they were bringing the food to us, they would first of all beat us before giving us the food. If they did not beat you, you wouldn’t eat. We were being tortured daily.”

    Traumatised by the experience in the prison, Goodluck said: “One day, I saw people making plans to escape from the prison.

    So, I decided to take the opportunity because I didn’t want to die there.

    “When we made the move to escape, the police started shooting at us directly. Thanks to God, the bullet did not touch me, but many died.  Unfortunately, when I jumped the fence, I broke my leg. Libyan police came and seeing that I broke my leg, they started beating me. They wanted to flog me with a pipe on my face but I blocked it with my hand. The hand got broken.

    They took me back to the prison without any treatment.”

    Goodluck heaved a sigh of relief when he heard that Nigerian officials were visiting the prison. He looked forward to getting treated and freed from the pains that had emasculated him. He said: “When the Nigerian embassy officials came, they saw my situation and told me there was nothing they could do for me and that I should just file for deportation. I had no choice, because I was already going back to my country before I was arrested. So, I registered for deportation.”

    Goodluck said he remained in the prison for three months before the International Organisation for Migration came and returned him to Nigeria.

    “IOM gave me an ATM card with over N300, 000 in it. I told them about my health condition but they said that was my personal problem. After buying a phone and paying for my transport to my state and paying for treatment, the money was exhausted. I am going for native treatment now. I am still too young not to be walking with my legs.  People with both legs intact are complaining about life situation, now imagine someone like me in this condition.”

    Goodluck’s experience in Libya is a direct result of the European Union’s border externalization policy.

    The EU’s border externalization policy outsources stringent migration management and border control practices to African states to restrict people from migrating from their countries of origin to the EU.

    Frey Lindsay, an  investigative journalist with Statewatch told our correspondent that over the last decade, and “increasingly in recent years, the EU has funneled hundreds of millions of euros at least (by some counts over a billion euros) to countries in North Africa, including Libya, Tunisia and Morocco, under so-called ‘migration partnerships’. In most cases, these projects can best be seen as the EU paying authorities in those countries to act as its external border guards, emboldened to forcibly and often violently intercept and detain people attempting to seek shelter in Europe. The European Commission has largely turned a blind eye to the extreme violence, forced labour, kidnapping, detention, sexual violence, murder and other atrocities committed against African migrants that these funds are complicit in.”

    Commenting on the EU policy, Nomzamo Malindisa of the University of Pretoria said in a post on EU Renew Blog Series, said “This has detrimental impacts on African states including on their sovereignty, the human rights of the migrants, and how Africa shows up within the global migration governance landscape. By handing the responsibility of restricting the movement of the people of Africa across African states, the continent bears the criticism of hindering progress on global migration governance and exacerbating the migration crisis along the Africa-EU pathway.”

     She added that the “EU’s externalization policy undermines the national sovereignty of African states and negatively affects the continent’s agency within the context of the Africa-EU relationship. The national migration policies and priorities of African states that engage with the EU in this regard are overshadowed by European influence on local migration governance practices, incrementally reducing the states’ control of migratory activities within their own borders.”

    Checks revealed that the decision to keep Goodluck and others like him in prison for three months after a visit by the Nigerian authorities is not unconnected with the EU policy which aims to leave indelible scars in the minds of the immigrants that will make them return home and narrate their ordeals to their people.

    Also reliving his ordeal, Jerry, who shared the same prison with Goodluck said: “I was in a taxi going  hospital for treatment of a discomfort in my stomach when the Libyan police arrested me. They pushed me into a cell and from there, they dumped me in the prison.”

    Like Goodluck, Jerry said: “I saw hell in the prison. Many people died in the prison. They were always starving us. It’s five people to a plate of food. The food comes with serious beating.  When they come to give the food, they would be shouting hamza, hamza meaning five five, five five.  As they are saying that they would be flogging everybody with pipes.  I sustained injury but I didn’t allow them to treat me there because if you go to hospital for headache, they will treat you for stomach pain.  A friend suffered serious bleeding after getting such treatment.”

    Also narrating his experience during the jail break attempt, Jerry said: “Police were shooting people when we tried to escape that night.  We targeted the time they would bring food and outside. . They started shooting without breaking. I tried escaping and they caught me. They made me lie down and flogged me seriously and pushed me back inside the prison.”

    When he came back to Nigeria with the assistance of IOM, Jerry said he was given an ATM with N400, 000. “It was that money that I used to treat myself. They told us that after three months they will call us for an interview.  After three months, they invited us to Abeokuta in Ogun State and gave us one book on business idea and also trained us.  We spent about a week in the hotel.  They promised to give us some money later and asked us to drop our account details. Since then, I haven’t heard from them.  I told them I am a furniture maker.  They taught me how I can make money in my business and how I can relate very well with customers.  They said IOM was going to surprise us. They have not given us any money since then.”

    Nigerian migrants, others left to die in desert

    In other North African countries like Tunisia, the EU border policy is carried with to the letters.  People, including children, nursing and expectant mothers are dumped in hash conditions in the Algerian desert without water and food.  It was learnt that many migrants die in the process of thirst and hunger.

    Richie, 34, shared his brutal experience in the hands of the authorities.

    Like Goodluck, Richie had traveled to Germany in 2018 for greener pastures but got deported in 2022.

     “Life was very difficult for me when I came back.  I was depressed,” he said.

    With no support from anywhere, Richie found it difficult to move on.  “At this point, it’s a very different lifestyle for me, you know. Living in an advanced country, all of a sudden, coming back to Nigeria with no means of survival. I have a sick mom that I have to take care of. My family was my responsibility when I was in Germany.  I gave them money for medication, feeding and all those things. Following my deportation, they were now the ones feeding me. It wasn’t easy for them also. I didn’t even know my mom was taking loans from different meetings and all that to support me. I didn’t know how to fight it.”

    Frustrated by the situation he found himself, Richie moved to return to Europe again.

    “A friend who travelled to Europe from Morocco, and Tunisia, who advised me to hit the road again, but this time not through Libya, I should use Tunisia. From Tunisia, we tried to cross several times, but it was not successful because of the border control.”

    On the fourth attempt, Richie said they were already on the sea for six hours when security operatives caught them.

    “They deported all of us to the desert in Algeria and told us to find our way and not to come back to Tunisia again.  We had nothing on us; no food, no water and no money.  They just dumped us there in the desert.”

    Unfortunately for Richie, he was no longer single at that point. He had had a child from a lady he met in the course of the journey.

    “All of us, my woman, my baby and I were dumped in the desert, he said, adding: “We trekked for more than one week in the desert. We slept in the desert at night and in the morning, we continued trekking again.”

    Whenever they lacked water or food, Richie and his wife would go out to the road and beg commuters for help.

    “Some of them will throw water to us.  Some of them will stop and give us bread and juice. But they would not carry us in their vehicle. I think it’s the law their government gave them.”

    Richie noted that the experience in Algeria was very terrible especially because of the sun. “You don’t have any shaded place to hide your head. Even if it’s raining, it has to rain on you.”

    Continuing, he said: “There were so many other Africans inside the Algerian desert. When they deported us from Algeria to Niger, we were more than one million people. You see this long truck used to carry cows was more than 30 loaded with people. Each one of us sat chained with legs wide open. Another person sits in-between like that like that. People who didn’t want to face that deportation were jumping out while that vehicle was on high speed. When they fell down, they couldn’t get up again.  Most of them broke their legs. They still captured them and put them inside the trucks and still deported them. They were doing that deportation from Algeria every three days.”

    The long journey from Algeria terminated at Assamaka in Niger Republic.  The place has been a dumping ground for migrants forcefully removed from Libya, Tunisia and other places. It’s a land of hardship and deprivation.

    “Assamaka was another story entirely,” Richie said. “Because the IOM is there in Asamaka, we went there to register to get some aid and support. But the process was something else. Weather in Assamaka was very hot. I figured it was not okay for my baby because he was just being sick, vomiting and all those things.

    “Tunisian police took our phone, took our money. So, when we got to Assamaka, we were not having phone. Then I said, okay, my wife and the baby should go home because of the sake of the baby. And I remained for a while.  She left with the financial support we got from her people and my friends. I later got money and left too.”

    Also recounting her ordeal, Richie’s wife said: “My husband and I met in Algeria. Arab men used to harass women. One was even telling me that I should sleep with him.

    He showed me a knife and demonstrated that he was going to cut my neck.

    “We stayed in Algeria for, I think, a week and a half not going out. We were just inside. We had a burger. He would come and check on us. Then we would give him money to buy food for us.”

    After sometime in Algeria, she said they left for Tunisia by road.

    Decrying the hostility of the Arabs, she said: “Tunisia and Algeria are the same thing.

    Their people treated black people like trash. While I was in labour, we went to a hospital but no one attended to us. We were asked to go to another one with the pain I was feeling because we are blacks. I gave birth in a hospital but they didn’t give me normal treatment. They did not want us to stay with their people because we are blacks. They kept me where blacks were.”

    Reliving her experience in the desert, she said: “It was hell walking inside the desert.  My baby was just sucking only breast and I wasn’t eating well. It was God that said that, that baby is going to live. I was mostly eating debino (dates). Their people were giving us debino. That was what we were just feeding on. We fetched salty water from the farms to quench our thirst. It’s not clean. Rain was beating us, including my son in the desert. When it rains, we would be under the tree; nowhere to hide. It is the same when the sun shines. The weather was always dry and hot.”

    Corroborating her husband, she said: “The Tunisian police used to steal from us. They stole our phone, and money. When we were in a boat to cross, they police arrested us, they collected the engine.  They later collected our phone. They left us on the boat like on the sea. It was another boat that threw rope to us to pull us out. Before then I was scared because I was actually pregnant at that time. The trauma was too much. I don’t want to go through it again.”

    Victims shut out of IMD

    During the December International Migration Day celebration, Bright, a deportee, who attended the event with high hopes left a sad man. He told our correspondent how he was harassed and almost prevented from entering the venue.

    “One of the officials rudely told me that the event was not meant for us. She said it was for important dignitaries like government officials and development partners. She went on to tell me that they would invite us to share our experience when there is an opportunity for such event.”

    Ruffled by the remark, Bright lost his vivaciousness and wore a mournful look throughout the event meant to celebrate people like him.

    When contacted, Rex Osa, who had mobilised and financed deported migrants from Rivers and Edo states to participate in Abuja CSF and National Migration Dialogue expressed  disappointment in the NCFMRI, calling it a primitive act to have ignored the highly sensitive perspective of migrants in the event program. “In fact the so-called national dialogue was more of a loyalty show for international donors with arrogant display of their clusters of logo as more also an unmerited and uncalled for profiling of public office holders some of who should be held responsible for the problem that has continued to cause many young people to flee the country.”

    International, local NGOs criticize EU policy

    Numerous NGOs, including Doctors Without Borders (MSF), Human Rights Watch, Refugee Rights Europe, and local groups in North Africa, strongly criticize EU border externalization for its role in deadly journeys, pushbacks, human rights abuses in third countries (like Libya), and shifting crises to vulnerable nations, effectively outsourcing border control at the cost of human lives and dignity. They advocate for urgent review of agreements and accountability for officials involved in these harmful policies.

    Read Also: Yoruba diaspora group hails Nigeria–US security collaboration

    Criticisms of the border externalisation policies, primarily from human rights organizations and legal scholars, center on severe human rights violations, a lack of accountability and transparency, the empowerment of authoritarian regimes, and the overall ineffectiveness of the approach.

    Human Rights Violations and Legal Concerns

    ·           Exposure to Abuses: Externalisation agreements with countries like Libya, Turkey, and Mauritania expose migrants and asylum seekers to systemic and severe human rights violations, including arbitrary detention, torture, sexual violence, forced labor, extortion, and trafficking by state authorities, militias, and armed groups.

    ·           Violation of Non-Refoulement: Policies often result in “pushbacks” and deportations without individual assessments, violating the international legal principle of non-refoulement, which prohibits returning individuals to countries where they would face persecution or danger.

    ·           Dangerous Routes and Deaths: By closing traditional routes, externalisation forces migrants to use more dangerous pathways, leading to an increase in deaths and disappearances in the Mediterranean Sea. The violence faced by migrants is seen not as an accident, but as a consequence of a system designed around deterrence.

    ·           Gendered and Racialized Violence: The policies disproportionately affect vulnerable groups, with evidence of increased risks of sexual violence and exploitation for women and girls, and a general “gendered racialization” that subjects certain groups to heightened violence.

    ·           Lack of Accountability and Transparency

    ·           Accountability Gaps: The “distance-creation” through externalisation makes it difficult to attribute legal responsibility for violations to the EU or its Member States, creating significant accountability deficits.

    ·           Informal Agreements: Many deals, such as the EU-Tunisia Memorandum of Understanding, are informal and non-binding, allowing them to bypass democratic scrutiny and legal safeguards, including the need for parliamentary consent.

    ·           Insufficient Monitoring: Critics point to a lack of independent monitoring mechanisms and human rights safeguards within these agreements, which contributes to the impunity of abusive practices.

    ·           Frontex Criticism: The EU’s border agency, Frontex, has been heavily criticized by organizations like Human Rights Watch for failing to safeguard people against human rights violations and for its alleged involvement in illegal pushbacks.

    ·           Political and Geopolitical Consequences

    ·           Empowering Autocratic Regimes: The EU has been criticized for financially backing and partnering with countries that have questionable human rights records or are led by undemocratic actors, which can entrench authoritarian governance and compromise the EU’s own stated values.

    ·           Instrumentalization and Blackmail: Partner countries have gained significant leverage, using the control of migration as a bargaining chip to extort more funds or political concessions from the EU, as seen with Turkey and Tunisia.

    ·           Undermining Long-Term Stability: The focus on short-term border control often comes at the cost of addressing the root causes of migration (such as poverty, conflict, and climate change) and can destabilize partner countries, potentially leading to further migratory pressures.

    Ineffectiveness

    ·           Failure to Stop Migration: Despite the goal of reducing irregular migration, evidence suggests that externalisation policies often fail to produce sustainable solutions and can have counterproductive, unintended consequences, such as forcing migrants into the hands of more ruthless smuggling and trafficking networks.

    ·           Fueling Smuggling Networks: The restriction of legal pathways, without addressing the demand for migration, has inadvertently fueled the growth of sophisticated and violent human smuggling and trafficking industries.

  • Welcome to Taiwan

    Welcome to Taiwan

    • Taiwan’s beauty lies not only in its landscapes but also in the warmth of its people – Unknown

    By Olayinka Oyegbile

    I left Lagos, Nigeria on the night of June 28, 2025, from the Murtala Muhammed International Airport. My destination was Taipei, Republic of China (R.O.C.) Not to be confused with P. R. C. which is the Peoples Republic of China or Mainland China as many refers to it. Taipei is the capital of Taiwan!

    As a journalist and student of history, I know Taiwan is different from China. But this is a very touchy issue that has dominated world history and discussion of the Asian-Pacific politics for a long time. My journey to Taiwan was as a result of winning a Postdoctoral Research Fellowship of the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy (TFD). The opportunity was to allow me travel to the country, spend four months and conduct research on the country’s martial law which was from May 1949 to July 1987 and compare it Nigeria’s Military Decrees (1966-1979, and 1984-1999). Both laws circumscribed the media and all freedom when they were in operational.

    My Turkish Airline flight which left Lagos on the night of Friday landed in Istanbul the next morning. I was enchanted by the expansive Istanbul Airport; the beauty, size and orderliness and its allure were soothing. It was a world away from the MMA1 that I left behind in Lagos. In fact, it made the MMA1 looked like a village motor park! No offence meant.

    I decided to explore the airport as a way of whiling away the over nine hours layover. However, because of the breath of spectacle in the airport moving from one Duty Free Shop to another and browsing through stacks of books at the available bookshops, I never knew time was gone. Before I could settle down in a comfortable corner to catch some little sleep, the hour was ticking and the luxury of a sleep was no longer there. I had to trace my boarding gate for the last leg of my flight.

    Anxiety gripped me not knowing what to expect in Taiwan since I speak no word of Mandarin. I was travelling to a country that I have already read about from the much I could gather online and from some of the literature I picked up at the Trade Office in Lagos while going through the application for visa process.

    However, if you grew up in the Nigeria of my time, you will remember that “Taiwan” connotes fakery. I don’t know how its origin, all I remember was that when you go to buy any imported products, the question you are often asked was: “Do you want Made in China or Made in Taiwan?”. How ‘China’ represents the original and ‘Taiwan’, the fake is still shrouded in mystery. I walked into the aircraft feeling tired and telling myself I must find out the conundrum. Did I? Please, come along with me in this chronicle of my stay in that beautiful island country of possibilities. This and other ‘myths’ about Taiwan are what I spent the next four months trying to unravel in Taipei City, the capital of the country.

    In the process of picking up my visa at the Trade Office in Lagos, I had picked up some free literature at the reception which helped to demystify and dissolve some of the myths I had carried around my head about the country. One of the publications titled Taiwan at a Glance (2019-2020), put the country’s population at 25,588,932 according to its 2018 census and it sits on 36,197 square kilometers.

    According to the publication, “The ROC (Taiwan) was founded in 1912. At that time, Taiwan was under Japanese colonial rule as a result of the 1895 Treaty of Shimonoseki, by which the Qing ceded Taiwan to Japan. The ROC government began exercising jurisdiction over Taiwan in 1945 after Japan surrendered at the end of World War II. The ROC government relocated to Taiwan in 1949 while fighting a civil war with the Chinese Communist Party. Since then, the ROC has continued to exercise effective jurisdiction over the main island of Taiwan and a number of outlying island, leaving Taiwan and China each other the rule of different government. The authorities in Beijing have never exercised sovereignty over Taiwan or other islands administered by ROC.” (emphasis mine).

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    The history of the country is wrapped in the determination of the people to show that they may have things in common with China; things like Mandarin language (Chinese), culture etc. but they are different. It is this sore point that make the two countries to view one another with mutual suspicions and caution. The publication further affirmed that in the 1500s European sailors passing through Taiwan had called it Ilha Formosa, which translates as “Beautiful Island”, and yes, it is. I can testify. Perhaps it is that beauty that makes it contentious thus making many want to befriend her!!

    The country continues to move from one hand to another during the long period from the Dutch East India Company to Spanish adventurers to the Dutch and later to the Manchurian conquest of the Ming Dynasty (1368-1644) when the Ming loyalists under Zheng Cheng-gong drove out the Dutch and established military control over the island.

    The changes went on until 1943 when “During World War II, ROC leader Chiang Kai-sek meets with US President Franklin Roosevelt and the British Prime Minister in Cairo.”

    Taiwan has since undergone lots of changes that makes it different from China, even though China still continues to lay claim to the island. Taiwan practises elective democracy where people choose their representatives and have a say in how the country is run. China is not.

    •Dr Oyegbile is a journalist and media scholar who just concluded a postdoctoral fellowship at the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy (TFD) in Taipei.

  • Kemi Adeosun: My resignation as Finance Minister not admission of wrongdoing

    Kemi Adeosun: My resignation as Finance Minister not admission of wrongdoing

    •Says powerful enemies used NYSC certificate row to get rid of her

    Former Minister of Finance, Mrs Kemi Adeosun, has given her most detailed account of the circumstances that led to her resignation from President Muhammadu Buhari’s cabinet in September 2018.

    She said the decision was taken to safeguard the integrity of the Office of the Minister of Finance and to allow her to defend her name through the courts.

    Adeosun spoke on Friday during an appearance on Channels Television’s Inside Sources with Laolu Akande, where she addressed the controversy surrounding her exemption from the National Youth Service Corps and the political consequences that followed.

    According to her, stepping aside was a conscious choice rooted in principle rather than an acknowledgement of fault.

    She explained that remaining in office while pursuing legal action against the government would have placed both her and the institution she represented in an untenable position.

    “People kept asking why did I resign? That no one resigns as minister of finance as I did,” she said. “I still think it was the right thing for me to do.”

    She described the moment as one that demanded clarity of values, insisting that the responsibilities of the finance portfolio could not be reconciled with the personal task of clearing her name. “My resignation is a matter of principle and not an admission of wrongdoing. It was a step to protect the Office of the Minister of Finance and defend my reputation,” Adeosun said. “I can’t be attending local and international meetings as minister of finance, and also appearing in a court in a case of integrity and reputation.”

    The former minister added that the idea of suing the government while serving as a senior cabinet member was inappropriate. “I knew I would need to go to court to clear my name, and doing so was not compatible with being Minister of Finance representing Nigeria at the highest level,” she said.

    Adeosun recalled personally informing President Buhari of her decision. “I went to see Mr President, and I said, ‘Mr. President, I need to go. I need to go to court because I have to clear my name,” she recounted. According to her, the President agreed with the course of action and supported her decision to seek legal redress. “These names are leased from our children and our grandchildren. You don’t destroy your name because you want to stay as minister,” she added.

    In July 2021, the Federal High Court in Abuja ruled that Adeosun was ineligible to participate in the NYSC scheme. The court held that under the 1979 Constitution, which was in force at the time of her graduation, she was not a Nigerian citizen either when she graduated or when she turned 30, the age threshold for the scheme.

    Adeosun graduated from the University of East London in 1989 at the age of 22. Justice Taiwo Taiwo, who presided over the case, ruled that the constitution did not require her to present an NYSC certificate or any academic certificate as a condition for ministerial appointment. The court further held that her appointment as Minister of Finance was neither illegal nor unconstitutional despite the absence of an NYSC certificate.

    The suit, filed in March 2021 by the law firm of Chief Wole Olanipekun (SAN), on her behalf, also addressed the issue of citizenship. The court ruled that because the 1979 Constitution did not recognise dual citizenship, Adeosun could not be considered eligible for the NYSC scheme at the time. By the time Nigeria’s laws permitted her citizenship status to revert, the court noted, she was already well above the age limit for participation.

    Beyond the legal and political controversy, Adeosun used the interview to reflect on policy debates, particularly the issue of fuel subsidy removal and the current tax reforms. She maintained that the policy of fuel subsidy was unsustainable and widely understood as such within the government.

    “There was no minister who did not know that subsidy was killing us,” she said, pointing to the distortions created by subsidised fuel prices and Nigeria’s porous borders. “We had consumption figures of about 65 million litres per day with only about 10 million cars. It was not possible.”

    She argued that subsidy payments drained resources that could have been deployed for development. “Money spent on subsidy is money you can spend on roads, education or health,” Adeosun said, while cautioning that reforms must be accompanied by long-term solutions to cushion citizens. “You need structural solutions, not just palliatives, to help people absorb policy changes.”

    On tax reform, Adeosun spoke candidly about the resistance finance ministers often face. “When you’re Minister of Finance, the word ‘no’ becomes your watchword,” she said. “If your finance minister is loved by everybody, they’re probably not doing much of a job.”

    She defended initiatives such as the Voluntary Assets and Income Declaration Scheme, which sought to bring wealthy individuals and large corporations into the tax net, and praised the current administration for advancing data harmonisation across government agencies.

    “I was excited when I saw moves to harmonise data,” she said. “We’ve had TIN, NIN, BVN—too many numbers. Once you harmonise data, it becomes very difficult to hide.”

    According to her, integrated data systems, combined with technology, make it easier to identify those benefiting from public resources without meeting their tax obligations. “Once you have data, and with AI, you can see very quickly who is not playing the game fairly,” she said.

    Adeosun also touched on insecurity, describing it as a deeply rooted problem that requires sustained effort. She recounted a traumatic personal experience during her tenure, when her home was invaded, and she was robbed at knifepoint. “It was extremely scary,” she said. “I never slept in that house again.”

    Despite such experiences, she expressed cautious optimism about current efforts to address the crisis. “Insecurity didn’t start overnight, and it won’t end overnight,” she said. “But what matters is that there is now a clear will to tackle it.”

    Away from public office, Adeosun has focused on social impact through DashMe Stores, a charity initiative she founded in 2021. She revealed that the organisation has raised more than ₦500m to support vulnerable people and orphanages across the country.

    “We started in 2021 with one store. We’re now on our fifth store and expanding,” she said. DashMe currently operates one outlet in Abuja and three in Lagos, with a fifth scheduled to open in Abeokuta next month. Plans are also underway for expansion to Ibadan, Port Harcourt, Kano and the Federal Capital Territory.

    She explained that the model relies on local partnerships in areas where her team cannot be physically present. “In each of those places, we rely on partners to work with us, and we’re seeing no shortage of people willing to get involved. They like what we’re doing. They like helping,” she said.

    Adeosun stressed that DashMe operates strictly as a not-for-profit venture. “Cumulatively, we’ve raised over ₦500m from our stores and partnerships, and that is exactly how much has gone out,” she said. “I don’t get paid. The only people who are paid are the shop staff. Everything else goes back into helping people.”

    According to her, the organisation has built about four orphanages from scratch, refurbished several others and taken over abandoned projects, including one that had been left unfinished for more than four decades. “Children’s lives are unstable enough without landlords issuing quit notices,” she said. “They deserve to be in their own homes.”

    She also spoke of setbacks, including the vandalisation of an orphanage under construction shortly before Christmas. “It was painful, especially because it was pointless,” she said. “But we’ll soldier on and complete the project.”

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    On poverty, Adeosun argued that the challenge is global rather than uniquely Nigerian. “Every country has a metric for classifying poverty,” she said, noting that large populations naturally produce high absolute numbers. “Because of our numbers, there will always be a core of poverty that remains.”

    She insisted that the true measure of progress lies in social mobility. “What matters is whether people are able to move from poverty into the middle or lower-middle class,” Adeosun said. “The worst kind of poverty is generational poverty, where generation after generation remains poor with no social mobility.”

    Education and enterprise, she said, remain the fastest routes out of deprivation, often creating ripple effects as individuals support extended families and communities.

    Adeosun concluded with a broader reflection on citizenship and governance, arguing that societal progress often begins outside government. “Government never starts anything. People start, and the government takes it over,” she said, recalling how many social institutions in other countries began as citizen-led initiatives.

    Recounting an experience where DashMe offered to refurbish a state-run orphanage, only for officials to promise action themselves, she added, “It’s the people that lead the government. One of our challenges in Nigeria is that we expect the government to lead the people. It should be the other way around.”