Category: Special Report

Days of global harvest of deaths and mass coronavirus infections may be numbered as some vaccine candidates appear to be scaling requisite clinical hurdles, writes Associate Editor ADEKUNLE YUSUF

DETERMINED to save lives in a country with rising Coronavirus infections (5,621 confirmed cases and 176 deaths as at yesterday), President Muhammadu Buhari has directed appropriate agencies to embark on validation of an herbal mixture touted as cure for coronavirus. Although the World Health Organisation (WHO) has repeatedly said that it has not approved any drug or vaccine for treating coronavirus, many have hailed COVID-Organics from Madagascar as Africa’s response to the global pandemic that has no cure yet.

Nevertheless, the Madagascar’s herbal mixture has continued to dominate headlines, with Boss Mustapha, chairman of the Presidential Task Force on COVID-19, disclosing this week that the National Institute for Pharmaceutical Research and Development (NIPRD) and the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC) have been mandated to carry out clinical analysis of its efficacy before the herbal mixture could be allowed for treating patients in Nigeria.

Since researchers in China released the genetic sequence of the coronavirus four months ago, an all-out global race to develop a safe vaccine against the deadly virus has been underway. With over 4.7 million confirmed infections and 292,000 deaths worldwide, the stakes couldn’t be higher, as public health officials and world leaders say an effective vaccine or treatment against the virus is urgently needed to restart economies and resume normal living. Desperate to save lives, doctors around the globe have tried lots of existing drugs—from malaria medications to anti-influenza pills to Ebola treatments. Yet, such efforts to save patients from the ravages of the disease have yielded no blockbusters, as researchers are still testing hundreds of potential candidates in search of an elusive cure. This has opened the door for hundreds of frontrunners or potential vaccines in many countries, with each at different stages of clinical trials.

WHO tracking 8 vaccines in clinical evaluation

Last week, WHO said it was tracking eight potential vaccines for COVID-19 in clinical evaluation. These candidate vaccines included four from China, one from England, two from the United States and one from the European Union. The list also includes 100 candidate vaccines in preclinical evaluation, which means they are still being tested in test tubes or in animals. The previous version of the list, published on April 20, included 5 candidate vaccines in clinical evaluation and 71 in preclinical evaluation.

Also last week, New York-based pharmaceutical giant Pfizer announced that it had begun testing a vaccine candidate for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. The company said it went from pre-clinical studies in test tubes and animals to injecting humans with a possible vaccine in less than four months. The trials, which are taking place in the United States, are still in phase one testing. These test whether a potential vaccine is safe, has side effects and produces the desired response from the body’s immune system. Vaccines must go through phase 1, 2 and 3 testing before they can be licensed. Each phase involves larger numbers of volunteers.

Pfizer said it is working with German pharmaceutical company BioNTech on the candidate vaccine, dubbed BNT162. The company first tested it in Germany last month on 12 healthy adults. The two companies say they plan to test the candidate vaccine on 360 healthy volunteers in the United States. BNT162 is a messenger RNA vaccine that instructs cells to make a specific piece of protein to match what’s on SARS-CoV-2’s spike protein. The hope is the protein pieces will cause the body to create antibodies that will stop the virus from being able to attach to and invade cells.

In the United Kingdom, scientists at Oxford University’s Jenner Institute said they plan to test a candidate vaccine on more than 6,000 people by the end of May. If it is effective and safe, they could have millions of doses ready in a matter of months. Tests done in six rhesus macaque monkeys seemed to show the candidate vaccine was protective. Now phase one human tests have started. The university is partnering with the British pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca to move forward with manufacturing should the candidate vaccine prove effective. Both have agreed to operate on a not-for-profit basis for the duration of the coronavirus pandemic, with only the costs of production and distribution being covered. Oxford University and its spin-out company Vaccitech, which jointly hold the rights to the technology used to develop the candidate vaccine, said they will receive no royalties during the pandemic.

In the United States, the first SARS-CoV-2 trial vaccine has been cleared to go into phase two testing by the Food and Drug Administration. The vaccine candidate by Massachusetts-based Moderna, touted as a potential vaccine that could be used if found safe and effective, is called mRNA-1273. It was first given to volunteers in Seattle on March 16 during the phase one testing. Reports had it that FDA has completed its review of Moderna’s Investigational New Drug application for mRNA-1273, which allows it to now proceed to phase two testing.

The study, which will begin enrolling 600 participants in the coming weeks, is designed to begin assessing whether or not the potential vaccine can induce a person’s immune system to produce antibodies that recognise SARS-CoV-2. With the news, Moderna pulls neck and neck with the current coronavirus vaccine leader, Oxford University’s Jenner Institute. Scientists there had a head start. Having already acquired safety data from human trials of similar vaccines for the related coronavirus that causes MERS, Oxford researchers convinced British regulators to push forward with a large Phase II study involving 6,000 people while the outbreak in the UK is still raging. The vaccine is based on a technology that involves genetically modifying a harmless virus to create a SARS-CoV-2 look-alike that doesn’t cause disease but does trigger an immune response.

Moderna’s vaccine candidate, which was developed in collaboration with scientists at the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Disease, is made out of messenger RNA; hence the phrase mRNA in the vaccine’s name. This molecule is responsible for carrying the genetic recipes for making different proteins to a cell’s protein production factories. The version inside Moderna’s vaccine carries the instructions for making a little bit of the spike protein that SARS-CoV-2 uses to infect human tissues. The idea is that a vaccine recipient’s cells will produce this partial spike protein, which will train their bodies’ immune systems to recognise the virus and attack it the next time it shows up.

Still a new strategy, this kind of vaccine has never been approved for use or manufactured at scale. But Moderna’s safety trial, which began in March—the first SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be injected into human volunteers—appears to have gone well enough that the FDA has greenlighted the next phase. It hopes to gain approval as soon as 2021, though Moderna’s not waiting for those results to start ramping up manufacturing. Last week, the company announced a 10-year partnership with Swiss drugmaker Lonza, which it expects to boost its production to tens of millions of doses per month in 2020 and hundreds of millions per month in 2021.

On the same day Moderna administered its first-out-of-the-gate vaccine, a company in China called CanSino Biologics got the green light to begin Phase I tests of two of its vaccine candidates. Like Oxford’s, they consist of a harmless viral vector that’s been genetically tweaked to look just enough like SARS-CoV-2 to trigger an immune response. In April, one of these vaccines entered Phase II, and researchers in Hubei province are now trying to recruit 500 people for the study. Other vaccine efforts are also showing early promise. Last week Monday, 15 healthy volunteers in New York received the first doses of an mRNA-based vaccine similar to Moderna’s, called BNT162.

Produced by Pfizer and a German pharma company called BioNTech, BNT162 is one of four genetic vaccine candidates the two companies are jointly developing to fight SARS-CoV-2. Over the next few weeks, the Phase I trial will enroll 360 people in four different research hospitals to see how safe these different variations are compared to a placebo. Researchers will monitor patients for the next two years, looking for signs of side effects as well as any antibodies their bodies produce against SARS-CoV-2. But since most bad reactions happen right away, the scientists should know in three to four months if the vaccine candidates are safe and have an idea of which one of the four works best.

At the University of Pennsylvania, researchers are also testing the safety of another genetic vaccine, produced by the nearby biotech company Inovio. Codenamed INO-4800, the vaccine is made out of synthetic DNA instead of RNA, though the principle is the same. Packaged into the DNA is a section of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. Inovio is testing two doses of INO-4800 in 40 healthy volunteers split between UPenn and the Center for Pharmaceutical Research in Kansas City, Missouri. In addition to these vaccine candidates, there are also two others currently in human trials in China. Both are chemically inactivated versions of the virus, one developed by Sinovac and one developed at the Beijing Institute of Biological Products. According to a list assembled by the WHO, there are a further 71 vaccine candidates that could soon follow.

Explaining the three stages of clinical trials

Most scientists believe that having a vaccine, which would teach people’s immune systems to recognize and fend off the virus before an infection can take hold, is what the world really needs right now. With widespread fears that the consequences of a prolonged global economic lockdown can be catastrophic, experts are of the view that everybody wins if an inoculated public could get back to work and resume normal life. However, developing a safe and effective vaccine against a new pathogen typically takes years, if not decades.

Generally, clinical testing comes in three stages. The first phase involves a few dozen healthy volunteers, Phase II expands to several hundred in an outbreak area, and Phase III repeats the experiment with several thousand. Then drug administration officials must review the data and decide if the shot is safe and effective enough to approve. But in the face of the current global pandemic, scientists, pharmaceutical companies, and regulators are sprinting at record-shattering speeds to test hundreds of vaccine candidates. Without clinical trial data, it’s impossible to predict which contenders will emerge from the onslaught of experiments as the most successful.

After scaling preclinical trials, the first test in testing an experimental drug or other treatment in human beings involves evaluating the drug’s safety and toxicity at different dose levels. Phase two testing is done with several hundred volunteers with the aim to see how the volunteers’ immune systems respond to the vaccine and whether it makes them immune to the disease. At this stage, safety and side effects are also studied before any vaccine candidate receives the nod to proceed to phase three testing. Phase three trials involve giving a vaccine to large numbers of people to see whether it works, whether it is safe and whether it has unknown or rare side effects. These can range from thousands to tens of thousands of volunteers.

In other words, when candidate vaccines make it to human clinical trials, they first go through Phase 1 trials primarily to test the vaccine’s safety, determine dosages and identify any potential side effects in a small number of people. Phase 2 trials further explore safety and start to investigate efficacy on larger groups. The final stage, Phase 3 trials, which few vaccines ever make it to, are much larger, involving thousands or tens of thousands of people, to confirm and assess the effectiveness of the vaccine and test whether there are any rare side effects that only show up in large groups.

World leaders pledge $8 billion for vaccine

Recently, in a video meeting hosted by the European Union, world leaders, nonprofits and celebrities responded to calls to fight the pandemic last week. They pledged $8 billion to fund laboratories working to develop and produce a vaccine. The money was for the Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator or the ACT Accelerator, a collaboration between the WHO and governments, nonprofits, and industry worldwide. It was launched on April 24. They all pledged to work with and support the effort. However, the US was conspicuously missing in the cavalcade of donors, despite being a major contributor to global health initiatives.

“We know that as long as anyone is at risk from this virus, the entire world is at risk – every single person on the planet needs to be protected from this disease,” the collaboration’s mission statement said in part. The three-hour fundraising effort was like an old-fashioned telethon, with a leader from each country taking a few minutes on the video call to pledge money.

Still a long journey ahead

By some estimates, it is likely the world gets a vaccine in the coming months. Some say it could take longer than 18 months. Or scientists may not be able to manufacture a vaccine at all. But if scientists succeed, there will likely be enormous advantages for whoever controls it as the competition to be the first will likely engender a new wave of geopolitics the first country to the finish line will be first to restore its economy.

To this end, United States President Donald Trump is putting everything he’s got into a research effort dubbed Operation Warp Speed, which pulls together pharmaceutical companies, government agencies, and the military. So is China, which appears to have a head start at a time the two countries are already engaged in a fight for dominance in every aspect of global affairs. That is why development professionals are saying the stakes could not be higher for finding a vaccine against a virus that has claimed more than a quarter of a million lives and shattered global economies.

Although many world leaders are talking about global collaboration, it is obvious that national interests will dominate, as the government that can immunise its workforce first stands to gain in terms of economic advantage, validation of its technological prowess, and international influence. Both the US and China have played down talk of competition, no vaccine has ever been made on the kinds of schedules being targeted, which counted in months rather than years. President Trump said recently that the US is working with both Britain and Australia on vaccine projects, and wasn’t focused on geopolitics or who got there first. “I really don’t care. If it’s another country, I’ll take my hat off to them. We have to come up with a vaccine,” he said. American authorities said the US expects to be able to start manufacturing the drugs itself, whoever makes the scientific breakthrough.

However, still in the throes of the pandemic, signs of geopolitical rivalry have been obvious as the trust seems to be lacking among allies. The US has signaled that its own efforts are focused on protecting the American people first, which is primarily “to develop a vaccine for the people of the United States.”

But many believe China’s research process is, for now, more advanced, with a total of 508 volunteers joining a second phase trial for a potential vaccine that the Chinese Academy of Military Medical Sciences is developing with a Tianjin-based company, CanSino Biologics. Results from the trial could be known as soon as this month. Also, Russia has at least four vaccine projects underway, including at Novosibirsk Vector. The goal is for Russia to make sure its own population has protection without being dependent on its rivals. Others are in the mix, too, with the UK saying that if a promising Oxford University project is successful, Britons will be at the front to the line. France and Germany are also leading the charge for a more cooperative approach, securing pledges of 7.4 billion euro ($8 billion) at a virtual Group of Twenty fundraiser on May 4; while the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has said it will build manufacturing capacity to make as many seven vaccines available even before they exist, an unprecedented effort to ensure wide and rapid availability.

The private sector has played a leading role in the fight against the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. BOLAJI OGUNDELE and GBENGA OMOKHUNU write about the latest of such support unveiled on Tuesday by ThisDay Media and Technology Group, Sahara Energy Group and others in Abuja

THE latest on the list of private initiatives to fight the Coronavirus was unveiled on Tuesday in Abuja. It is called the ThisDay Dome COVID-19 Testing, Tracing and Treatment Centre. The 300-bed facility with a 54gene laboratory is a private sector-driven initiative donated by a consortium of like-minded partners, powered by the Sahara Energy Group and the ThisDay Media and Technology Group. Other partners on the project are the Coalition Against COVID-19 (CA-COVID), the African Finance Corporation (AFC), China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC), Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

At the inauguration of the facility, located in the heart of the Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC), Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) Boss Mustapha expressed appreciation to the facilitators and called on other private sector players to join the fight.

Sahara Group, which conceptualised the project, through its Corporate Citizenship Vehicle, the Sahara Foundation, said it had a long-term projection for the equipment it introduced to the project. According to its Executive Director, Temitope Shonubi, the COVID-19 challenge provided a window for the private sector to collaborate with the public sector to properly situate the healthcare sector.

Shonubi said: “All of the equipment Sahara Group has provided to the isolation centre, through the Sahara Foundation, will be donated to the Federal Ministry of Health when the pandemic is over. We believe this will shore up the availability of these equipment in some of our tertiary medical institutions. This, for us, is in line with the sustainability principle that guides all our interventions in our locations across the globe. Even beyond here, we have some extra equipment which will be sent to other centres that are being developed to ensure the virus is effectively contained in Nigeria.

“It is great to see how collaboration between the private and public sector is advancing our response to the pandemic robustly. All the stakeholders have worked collectively to make the process of bringing in medical equipment and establishing more venues seamless. Sahara Group is delighted and honoured to be part of such positive partnerships that can only enhance the well-being of all Nigerians”, he said.

Thisday Media and Technology Group Chairman Nduka Obaigbena said the private sector should join the government in solving all challenges facing the society.

“As citizens, we believe we should join hands with our government to solve this existential crisis. ThisDay Dome has been here for many years, so we thought we should make it available to fight this pandemic and we partnered with Sahara Group to put together a coalition, which was led by CA-COVID, NNPC, CCECC, CBN, and others. We put together a collective to join hands with the federal government to deal with the crisis at hand.

“This facility has four branches, over there is a facility where you can test, treat and fix. So we have a 54-gene testing laboratory, with state-of-the-art molecular laboratory equipment, which is ready to go. It can handle 200 tests per day, scalable and it does about 50 tests at the same time. Because of paperwork and other documentation, it produces a result within 24 hours.

“We have the tracing App, which has been developed by our technology team, as you know ThisDay is not just a newspaper outfit only, it is now a technology company, so we have developers in Europe and Nigeria who have out this tracing App together. When you are tested, we can trace all your contacts with App and if you have requirements for isolation and treatment, there is Sahara ward and intensive care unit for you there. We have ICU beds, ventilators, medical waste incinerators, it has everything you need. So in this one facility, you can solve all the problems of COVID-19 and we thought that we should work with the federal government by making it available at no charge,” he said.

CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele said a plan was underway to provide grants for researchers with interest in developing a vaccine and cure for the disease.

Minister of Health Dr. Osagie Ehanire said the country was prepared for the worst on the issue of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

“We are able to learn a lot of things from the Chinese Doctors. We are happy that this treatment and isolation centre is in place now. We are pleased that this is a good example of what the private sector can do in supporting event of this nature of the COVID-19 outbreak that is affecting everybody both the rich and poor.

“This is a situation that calls for all hands to be on deck. We are not yet desperate but we are happy to have it here. Our policy has always been to strive for the best and prepare for the worst. We are striving to have the best outcomes. This facility here is serving that purpose of preparing for the worst. We are grateful that it is an addition to what we have on ground.

“Community transmission that necessitates urgent response is already with us. It this realisation, on the side of Nigeria’s private sector, who took it upon themselves to rise to the occasion that brings me at this juncture to mention and appreciate the contributions of the Coalition Against COVID-19 (known now as CA-COVID) and in connection with the event of today, the Sahara Energy Group and THISDAY Media & Technology Group for the donation of this THISDAY Dome Temporary Treatment & Isolation Centre. The Centre has not just added to the number of available bed spaces but saved the Nigerian health sector the anxiety of looming shortages.

“It comes with the following: Sahara Foundation Wards and ICU Centre complete with Ventilators, X-Ray and Dialysis; THISDAY 54gene Testing Mobile Lab complete with reagents – with scalable 200 – 1000 tests per day; THISDAY 98 – Room Hotel & Conference Centre next door for medical staff for 6 months; CBN Medical Grant in direct support to FMoH and FCDA for day to day management of the Isolation Centre and industrial-grade medical incinerator,” Ehanire said.

Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Malam Muhammad Bello said with the facility, the FCT has almost reached the target of 1, 000-bed spaces.

Bello said: “There is no doubt, in the long run, it will add to the bed spaces available within the territory for us to be using as treatment and isolation centre. With this facility, the FCT has almost reached the target of 1000 bed spaces. Within the FCT we have in existence, three treatment isolation centres, one of which was just handed over to us at Idu, boasting a capacity for 500 beds.”

ICT has been critical to fighting the Covid-19 pandemic and transforming society over the long term. But the key to progress is laying the foundation for constant evolution, writes Chen Lei, President of Huawei Southern Africa Region.

WITH the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic at the beginning of this year, organisations across the planet began to shift into action. But as critical as it was to react appropriately, it has also been important to proactively prepare for the next phase.

At Huawei, we are aware of the massive effect of the pandemic, as well as how seriously communities would be affected. However, we are also conscious that as well as protecting lives, we need to help lay the foundation for the next stage of society’s technological advancement – the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

I’ve been inspired by a recent YouTube video of young South African dancer Hlumelo, who has been under lockdown in his home township of Gugulethu. A member of the Zama Dance School, Hlumelo has not let the lockdown hold him back, and has continued practising his steps for the moment when he and his friends can perform together again.

Similarly, during the Chinese lockdown, members of the Shanghai ballet continued to practise – wearing facemasks – for their upcoming performance of Swan Lake. They took precautions but remained focused on the next phase of their development.

This reminds me of a saying from a Chinese poem that “Good honing gives a sharp edge to a sword. Bitter cold adds keen fragrance to plum blossom”. It implies that preparation is essential to being effective, and that hardship can shape ultimate success. Indeed, chance favours the prepared mind.

We understand that ICT has a great role to play in terms of keeping us all connected during lockdown, quarantine, and social isolation. But technology is also fundamental to economic recovery for Africa.

Now that we have spent several weeks with shuttered schools and locked-down business, our conversation is turning to how to reopen the economy. It’s becoming increasingly clear that the way to do that is not to rush back to the same busy, concentrated work and social environments we had before.

When we re-open, communities and workplaces will have to continue practicing social distancing. We will continue to rely on high-speed connectivity to bind us together. In many cases, ICT networks support the fight against the coronavirus, but also the evolution of human society itself.

During the pandemic, once Huawei had secured our people and our operations, we looked at how we could support our business partners on the African continent through our core competences in the ICT sector. We were fortunate to be able to assist with social distancing by African organisations through our technologies.

The video conferencing systems we provided in some African countries enabled information sharing domestically and experience exchange internationally between epidemic prevention experts in China and Africa.

Our remote videoconferencing systems have helped medical institutions communicate more efficiently. We have also implemented an AI-based diagnosis solution in several medical institutions. CT scan reviews can now be completed in two minutes, 80% faster, in a race with time, critical for saving lives.

Huawei will continue using our core information and communication capabilities to support Africa’s epidemic control efforts.

When the dust settles, and we begin to arrive at the much-heralded “new normal”, we will have seen the immense potential for ICT to build social cohesion.

A new business model is taking shape across sectors, one characterised by remote work, distance education, remote healthcare, online shopping and mobile money. These business models span transportation, security, finance, medicine, education and entertainment.

This new paradigm is driven by vastly greater data consumption, facilitated by the mass connectivity of 4G/5G technology.

Governments are coming to understand the need to prioritise ICT as a basic necessity. As a recent white paper noted, the Covid-19 pandemic is seeing 5G transform healthcare response mechanisms to become digital, accurate and smart.

The epidemic has brought home to policymakers the importance of ICT in national development. This is likely to accelerate the establishment of a national data centres, optical fibre networks and communication base stations.

This kind of “big network” the deployment also presents a historic opportunity for Africa to use ICT to catch up with, and overtake other nations in terms of human development and quality of life for all its citizens.

We are seeing the first signs of digital transformation not just in healthcare systems, but across entire economies, and society itself.

ICT platforms are likely to provide the foundation of Africa’s future economy. The key is to continue honing and perfecting them, expanding their use even now, so that once the lockdown ends, we can recover more quickly.

As the old poem notes, good honing does indeed give a sharp edge to a sword. Like Hlumelo and the dancers of the Shanghai ballet, we should spend this time honing our abilities. When the new dawn arrives – as it surely will –  let it find us well prepared to seize the day!

The economy has been battered, human movement caged and turmoil in global stock and financial markets due to COVID-19 pandemic. However, experts say the situation is redeemable, writes SINA FADARE

THE COVID-19 pandemic hit the world unexpectedly. While the advanced economies were rattled and are frantically searching for a solution after thousands of lives have been lost, the underdeveloped economies are yet to wake up from their slumber in terms of confronting the deadly virus and its adverse effect.

The effects of the pandemic on the economy and all other areas of human endeavour were devastating because of the poor health system and the country’s mono-economy that has been operational for many years. The situation has led to the unprecedented disruption of food chains, reduction in crude oil price and total lockdown of all economic activities.

According to analysts, the adverse effects on critical sectors such as oil and gas, airlines, manufacturing and consumer markets were largely due to the mono-economy which the country has operated for many years until lately when agriculture is being considered as an alternative to oil in terms of revenue earning and food security.

Perhaps, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had the premonition of this calamity a few years back when it gave agriculture a pep in its intervention programmes.

Anchor Borrower Scheme became handy and the saving grace for farmers. The scheme, which was launched by Buhari in 2015, was designed to empower farmers to ensure food security.

According to the Director, Corporate Affairs of the CBN, Mr. Isaac Okoroafor, over 2.5 million farmers have benefited from the scheme in about 17 agricultural commodities.

Savouring the economic gains of these intervention programmes, the issue of border closure crept in, a policy that did not go down well with some of our neighbouring countries and was heavily criticised.

However, shedding more lights on the closure of the border, the CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele pointed out that “we are not saying that the borders should be closed in perpetuity, but that before the borders are re-opened, there must be concrete engagements with countries that are involved in using their ports and countries as landing ports for bringing in goods meant for local consumption, it is understandable,”

He further explained that before the closure of the border, the Rice Processors Association of Nigeria has nothing less than 25,000 metric tons of milled rice which they cannot sell due to saturation of the market with imported rice from the Republic of Benin, adding that just after a week of the closure of the border, all the rice were sold.

The CBN boss emphatically said the closure of the border has brought a good tiding to the Nigerian economy.

“So, on what the benefits of the border closure on the economy of Nigeria are, I just used two products – poultry and rice. The benefit is that it has helped to create jobs for our people, it has helped to bring the integrated rice milling in the country back into the business and they are making money.

Though the COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected the economy and the lockdown not only collapsed a lot of businesses but also opened a window of hunger for artisans who majorly depended on daily hustling for their survival, a situation that has invalidated earlier gains before the pandemic.

Speaking to The Nation on the ability of the country to quickly return to its economic hub that has encouraged a paradigm shift from oil and gas to agriculture and agro-allied ventures, Mr. Mike Osagie, an economist, noted that though the pandemic took the country by surprise, the agricultural programmes embarked upon by the Federal Government a few years ago had made food available, otherwise the country would have been worse hit.

Osagie further explained that a lot of lessons has been learnt during the lockdown which could encourage the government to put on their thinking cap and address all the critical area such as health facilities, adding that it should focus more on agriculture and let the farmers be the centre of focus to ensure food sufficiency and creation of more jobs.

According to him, post-COVID-19 should be a new Nigeria where massive diversification in agriculture is made necessary.

”Since the CBN got it right due to some of its intervention programmes for farmers, manufacturers and small-scale enterprises. This will go a long way in restoring all the economic losses during the lockdown.

Read Also: COVID-19: A’Ibom intercepts another corpse from Lagos

However, the CBN, to cushion the effect of the pandemic on the economy, took some radical steps to meet the yearnings of the people. The Director, Financial Policy and Regulation of the apex bank, Mr. Kevin Amugo noted that the bank is committed to providing support for affected households, businesses, regulated financial institutions and other stakeholders to cushion the adverse economic impact of COVID-19.

Amugo pointed out that all CBN intervention facilities are granted a further moratorium of one year on all principal repayments effective March 1,  which indicates that any intervention loan will have additional one year to pay up, adding that participating financial institutions are to provide new amortisation schedules for all beneficiaries.

In addition to this, the apex bank said all interest rates on all applicable CBN intervention facilities are hereby reduced from nine to five per cent for one year effective from March 1, 2020.

According to him, the bank has established a facility through the NIRSAL Micro Finance Bank for households, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that have been particularly hard hit by COVID-19, including, but not limited to hoteliers, airline service providers and health care merchants.

He explained that the CBN has extended its grants to all Deposit Money Banks to consider temporary and time-limited restructuring of the tenor and loan terms for businesses and households most affected by the outbreak, particularly oil and gas, agriculture and manufacturing.

Amugo noted that the bank is ready to consider additional incentives to encourage the extension of longer-tenured credit facilities and provide liquidity backstops as and when required given its role as Banker to the Federal Government and lender of last resort.

Assessing the situation, Adetunji Ogunyemi, an Economic Historian and lawyer who equally doubled as the Acting Head of Department of History, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, noted that four critical lessons have been learnt from the lockdown due to COVID-19 pandemic.

In a chat with The Nation, Ogunyemi said the Nigerian economy has been founded on an extremely fragile pedestal of mono-culturalism due to its excessive dependence on oil revenue and export whose health and viability are externally determined.

“The real sectors of the Nigerian economy such as agriculture, industries and manufacturing, which should have employed the largest proportion of the Nigerian populace, have been neglected for too long and this has been to the peril of the economy.”

He explained that the private sector, especially in the areas of transportation, small and medium-scale enterprises hold the key to the country’s economic development and not an over-bloated public sector that consumes more than 70 per cent of total government expenditure but cannot defend the economy in critical periods such as this.

According to him, real and effective governance happens at the state and local government levels, adding that the time has come to devolve more powers and resources to those levels by restructuring the power equation in the country under the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

The don explained that there are a lot of things that can be put in place so that the economy will bounce back in a post-COVID-19 pandemic. This includes the reality that the private sector holds the key to the nation’s economy which government at all levels must key into and give support to Small and Medium-Scale Enterprises (SMEs).

Ogunyemi noted that the Federal Government also needs to reduce the cost of governance by faithfully implementing most of the recommendations contained in the Steve Oronsaye’s Report on reforming the federal public sector.

He said: “We do not need a public service that is consuming the largest proportion of resources, sometimes up to 80 per cent of the total budgetary expenditure. It is time we reduced the cost of governance and then increase productivity through redirection of finance in favour of private sector investments in agriculture, mining, manufacturing, industries and education.”

He argued that the time has come to restructure the country along with competitive federalism.

“The states of the federation should be centres of investment and growth and not of distribution of revenue from the Federation Account.

“There should be, for now, a suspension of the implementation of the 7.5 per cent Value Added Tax. The old rate of five per cent should still subsist until the year 2021. This is to allow the SMEs to recover from the huge losses that the lockdown had inadvertently caused them and also to stimulate demand and consumption,” he said.

By Teju Abisoye

REMINISCING on the small gains Africa had made with job creation efforts including the impact of the work, we do at the Lagos State Employment Trust Fund (LSETF), I am deeply saddened at the rapid economic downturn that has hit most countries on the continent arising from the COVID pandemic. It has set us back on job creation for our youth.

Prior to the lockdown, Nigeria as a nation was struggling with a youth unemployment rate of 23.1%. Lagos State, on the other hand, had recently made some progress by reducing the unemployment figures by 6.7% as at Q3 2018. I am concerned that, all this could be lost.

In Nigeria, small businesses are known to create over 80% of the jobs, however, due to this pandemic, some sectors (e.g. event planners that cater to large gatherings; the travel and tourism sectors) where these businesses operate have been badly hit and are going to stay affected even beyond the lockdown. Some sectors, on the other hand, will gain e.g. the Health sector will require more trained personnel and supplies while e-commerce will need vendors that can provide contactless deliveries. The entire Agriculture value chain will also require more skilled labour force especially as diversification is inevitable looking at current oil prices. Therefore, working to create wealth and eradicate poverty for African communities through support for businesses and skills development is critical.

I share my thoughts below on what I believe we should be doing to respond at this time and to ensure we sustain the wins in years to come. Employment creation is a responsibility that should make use of accurate information and data to drive interventions for improved results. These interventions should also use proven concepts like business support, mentorship, the right investments and collaboration between as many stakeholders to scale and improve the results.

1. Knowledge / Information

– the interventions must be targeted using the right information.

A technology-enabled and fully automated Labour Market Information System (LMIS), will be able to provide real-time data that can more accurately guide interventions. This system is both useful to the private and public sector of the economy. The System should be able to generate adequate data that provides the skills required in each sector and are lacking on the market within minutes.

Also making sure unemployed young people have the right knowledge (skills), to take up available jobs is very important for sustainability. This will mean the acquisition of relevant knowledge, skills – both technical and soft. It is beyond reading and writing. These young minds must be exposed to the know-how, as well as the new habits and behaviour of the work environment.

Providing the right knowledge cannot be underestimated as a failure to educate with relevant information and skills, limits what can be achieved.

2. Investments

Investments are critical to the success of job and wealth creation and it can be viewed from 2 different perspectives;

– Investment in innovative ideas or industries to bring about the scale and thereby creating jobs with the hope of generating some returns/ profit; and

– Investment in infrastructure and people to help with the delivery of targeted interventions e.g. a LMIS will require a significant financial investment to originate a robust system that will be beneficial to the overall economy. It is most likely that these investments will not generate financial returns but huge socio-economic benefits.

Studies have shown that mentoring people and investing time in their growth can improve results both people in waged and self-employment.

Similarly, investing in an idea also gives it validation and has shown to improve the chances of that idea succeeding.

3. Business Support/ Mentoring

This is a time when small business owners or employees should not be shy to ask for help, in terms of knowing what to do in a state of confusion. They need to be seeking out and asking predecessors, consultants or professionals for advice.

Mentoring others requires investment, especially of time. What is required is more of coaching others through what is new or they have not been a part of previously. Mentoring can be digital or physical and in this new normal, maybe more digital.

A platform that creates the opportunity for peer and expert support will be useful for business promoters that can make use of IT facilities while in-person mentoring, or support will be useful to the informal sector.

4. Collaboration

Together, we can achieve more is evident when we examine the strategic partnerships that have emerged as a response to the COVID -19 intervention across many countries. The ability to seek effective partnerships is key at this time.

Here, I do not only refer to just collaboration for business but its relevance for LIFE. The Government can achieve more in partnership with the private sector and vice versa. Critical stakeholders must contribute their ‘strengths’ to achieving a vision of economic prosperity.

A good example of an intervention with job creation potential that can benefit from the multi-sector collaboration is support for the cooperative systems in the informal sector. In more formal finance, we will refer to this as loan syndication or blending to lower risk. This provides access to affordable financing for business development or expansion. The collaboration includes aggregating other businesses in the same sector to deliver on a project that requires volumes one business cannot deliver alone e.g. mass production of masks, face shields, and other Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) for Government facilities.

Conclusion

To quickly and strategically ramp up on youth employment across the continent, it is critical that interventions are guided by real-time data as this will help to minimise waste of resources. However, real-time data will require some form of investments in people, business and critical infrastructure. To reap the benefit of these investments, it is important to empower people with the right knowledge and skills. Also, we must promote a blended mentorship approach (digital and in-person) to ease individuals into the job market and help small businesses build or thrive in this economy.

Furthermore, one of the most effective tools to foster these interventions is collaboration, where different entities can put together the right resources to scale the identified intervention for greater impact.

Overall job creation should continue to be the objective for any Agency or Organization like LSETF solving unemployment and should drive how we proceed in this unprecedented time where it is no longer business as usual.

• Abisoye is the Acting Executive Secretary, Lagos State Employment Trust Fund (LSETF)

Chris Njoku, Owerri

TERTIARY institutions are churning out products invented by their teams of scientists and engineers to support the battles to prevent the spread of coronavirus.

Engineers at the Federal Polytechnic Nekede, Owerri, Imo State have invented manual and automated handwashing cum sanitiser machines to combat the infiltration of COVID-19 pandemic.

Its Rector, Michael Arimanwa, said the invention would check the infectious disease.

The manual machine is pedal-driven and automated one is solar-driven.

“We thought that because of the knowledge at this virus is transmitted by touch, we came up with the two ideas-pedal-operated and automated driven by solar energy.”

He urged the governments and the private sectors to partner with the institution to mass-produce the machines which could serve useful purposes for the hotels and public places.

The Chairman of the Technical Committee and HOD Chemistry Department, Anderson Ezeibe, added that the machine has 100 litres of water tank which, he said, would be more suitable to the public.

“It is to the specifications of the World Health Organisation (WHO) and we don’t want people to get contaminated by touching any of the units. And then in consideration of the fact that this is a heterogeneous community, we have the physically challenged and for such persons, they may not be able to operate the manual. So we designed the fully automated machine driven by solar energy so that electricity will not be an issue.”

Read Also: COVID-19: Oilserv donates medical, food supplies

The invention has also brought to the institution some foreign patronage. It was learnt that since the commissioning, the polytechnic has been receiving calls both from the United States, Europe, Asia, and some Africa countries seeking to purchase the machines.

According to the image-maker of the institution, Everest Nwosu, while some countries were interested in the confirmation of this breakthrough, others wanted to purchase as many quantities as possible.

He said the management of the institution would produce the machines as long as the machines were on demand.

Among those who have expressed their interest in Nigeria, he said, include the Industrial Training Fund (ITF), the Federal Ministry of Education through the Minister of State, Chukwuemeka Nwajiuba, the Nigerian Breweries, Panda Oil, Zinox Computers and others.

Also, a delegation from the Gregory University, Uturu (GUU), led by their Acting Vice-Chancellor, Prof. Augustine Uwakwe, delivered 600 bottles of GUU Comprehensive Hand Sanitisers, 150 bottles of GUU Sniff-Sniff, 50 bottles of GUU Herbal Honey, 50 bottles of GUU Adonis yellow, which they produced, to Imo State Governor Hope Uzodinma.

The delegation also volunteered to use the GUU fumigation team, kitted with their locally produced, chemicals for decontamination of public places for four days as part of efforts to help the state in the fight against the pandemic.

Also, another team from the Federal University of Technology, Owerri (FUTO) in their quest for solution locally produced cartons of sanitisers which they donated to the state government to assist in the fight against Coronavirus disease.

The sanitiser, according to the institution, is 75 per cent alcoholic. This is above the 60 per cent recommended by the World Health Organisation (WHO).

The Head of the Department of Chemistry, Prof. Cynthia E. Ogukwe, handed over the bags of the sanitisers to the Vice-Chancellor of the institution, Prof. Francis C. Eze. She explained that the department developed a test in the house to determine the quantity of ethanol in the production.

“The global outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) demands contributions from scientists and researchers all over the world. FUTO therefore, in the spirit of driving the culture of excellence is not left out. The quality hand sanitisers is FUTO’s contributions to Imo state government in the fight against coronavirus disease spread in the state.”

Expressing delight on the provision of 2,000 pieces of 100ml sanitisers which were produced by the institution, Uzodinma urged them on result-oriented research to further develop other scientific items to save our people from coronavirus scourge and other diseases.

United Nations (UN) General Assembly President Tijjani Muhammad-Bande, a Nigerian diplomat and political scientist, in this virtual interview from New York, United States (U.S.) with ASSISTANT EDITOR BOLA OLAJUWON, says the global body, member-states and World Health Organisation (WHO) are razor-sharp focused for solutions that fit all without leaving anyone behind despite the controversies surrounding the origin and transmission of the virus. Excerpts:

Finding common solutions to the pandemic

I think the point to be emphasised is this; we have some doubts and furies expressed around the origin of the pandemic, but our goal as a global polity is to focus on finding welcome solutions that affect all. For the record, regardless of the disputes around certain questions relating to origin or efficacy of the World Health Organisation (WHO), there have been remarkable efforts around the world multilaterally, in the regions and beyond regions, within the pandemic.

Obviously, funding for projections and for urgency has been provided. But first of all, the global call to actions of United Nations expressed by the secretary-general has been clear; funds have been put into it to support countries, including our own country Nigeria, that desired some supports. Some support is technical and some support is financial. There is such a thing as sharing of ideas, which is going on almost every day. The WHO has continued to issue guidelines to all countries, and there is not a single country in the world that is not listening to the WHO, even where there are disputes concerning whether it has acted fast enough to provide information.

The explanation of the WHO director-general has been very clear as to what information they are giving out in a timely manner. But, that is not our focus now. Our focus is not to do a post-mortem of why we are battling to solve the problem and have some kind of normalcy. Back to the question, regardless of disputes that are normal in a world of close to 200 nations, where sensitivities and understandings differ, we can say that the global polity is still acting as one, though we could have acted a bit faster. This is where I stand and this is my view.

Coordinating UN activities from home

The United Nations headquarters have been a beehive of activities in New York, Geneva, Nairobi and beyond. The issue is that offices are closed on the advice of health authorities. Of course, the United Nations follows what WHO says. But work is going on to the extent possible, and my officials are coming to meeting virtually. When we have meetings in regions and certain offices, we arrange to help them virtually, including consultations on specific issues.

However, certain negotiations are tough to conduct virtually, for example, in our situations, where formal negotiations are necessary, and languages issue in terms of translations is a bit challenging. We hold meetings in UN simultaneous in six languages. But in some informal meetings that we have called, we can agree to conduct them in one language. We do have meetings, but some of the activities that necessarily required in-house meetings that can be shifted, have been shifted.

But certain decisions that must be taken, we talk to ourselves to see whether we can have consensus to reach them. So, work is going on, but not like the case before. Because if you are going to have negotiations involving countries or officials have to come from different headquarters around the world, this cannot happen under lockdown because social distancing required as par advice of WHO cannot be achieved. Also, many restaurants and hotels and businesses have closed down. So, these are the issues. But for now, what can happen have been happening. We have meetings with the secretary-general and other relevant organs to coordinate our activities. Focus is not only in the headquarters; the UN is everywhere.

So in Nigeria, there is an arrangement by a coordinate who coordinate activities of the UN. The coordinator is connected with Nigerian authorities in relations with all the issues that ordinarily the Nigerian authorities connect to the UN. The headquarters officials with a responsibility to connect with relevant coordinators are also doing the same to see where we need to come in and what issues are urgent for the headquarters’ attention.

Protecting poor and vulnerable countries

No organisation is razor-sharp focused like the UN and in bringing everybody on board. The motto of the UN has lately been the battle cry of not leaving anyone behind. This battle cry presupposes a concern to reduce inequalities between countries and within countries to allow for the development of human beings. You can recall the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) agreed to by the UN member-states in 2015 as targets, which are to be met by 2030.

We have the challenges even before the Coronavirus pandemic as to how many countries are not on target to achieve the goals. Several factors are involved, including financing. There have been several reviews on how to support countries in needs and countries in special circumstances, including developing countries, landlocked developing states and those vulnerable because of conflicts. On each of these elements, there are dedicated officials of the UN, who are daily dealing with those issues and are being coordinated by officials at the UN headquarters. Where regulations are needed, the assembly also comes in.

So, in terms of this, the resolutions passed during the pandemic may come on board to focus on the necessity to help countries in the course of the pandemic and in the immediate as a health issue. But connected to that is the obvious fact and reality of the fallout of social and economic factors around the globe, particularly in countries that are heavily impacted. In the case of the lockdown relating to travel, just remember there are many countries, whose major revenue is through tourism and without tourism, they are really in difficulty.

Look at countries that are dependent on the importation of food and if there is a lockdown, transportation and logistics are affected. This can lead to dire situations for them. All these are issues that are discussed not only by the UN but other bodies that help to civilise the system, including the World Bank, African Union (AU), the European Union (EU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). All these bodies are also having meetings. Nobody is simply sitting. There are a lot of activities that are going on to help to solve the common danger and to think through what will happen after. We as a community is well-positioned to do so, understanding that if any country is having a problem with the pandemic, other countries are not safe as well.

Assessment of the UN at 75

Well, let me just take it at what I can see in the next 10 years. The UN has since its establishment 75 years ago meant what the founders want it to be like today in terms of a place to ensure that we have a world that is safe, that can allow for human development and people can live at peace. And since 1945, the body has seen to the development of norms for human beings as human beings in terms of their rights and duties and responsibilities as well as the interaction of states where everyone counts – big or small. If you imagine a world without the UN, I can see that it is a world with anarchy.

The UN has been a force for good. Look at its contributions in relations to ending of apartheid. Look at its development of issues relating to the vulnerable; look at its contributions to peace-keeping. If you have not seen how people struggle under the ghosts of various oppressors around the world, you will not appreciate why peace-keeping is key and it becomes all of the emblems of the United Nations. Many people from afar also care over situations of those people that are really in dare situations.

However, there have been failures in the system. Rwanda is one and there could be several others that have been mentioned. But in each case thereafter, the UN has because of these mistakes done proper reviews in the affected areas and organisations and some reviews are also ongoing. Some have succeeded far more than others and others are continuing. It is the commitment of the UN as a system to constantly review its work to guarantee delivery of its duties to the people of the world. I think the pandemic that we are currently battling against only reminds us of the critical importance of the UN and its institutions to guarantee some order. The UN has been striving even against all odds. Going forward, we are more likely to be more sensitive to the need of our neighbours, than previously done. This is really the focus of the UN to move peace and prosperity around the globe.

Challenges as President of General Assembly

Let me say that nobody comes to this type of position deluded that it was going to be easy; far from it. I am a Nigerian, who knows what the public needs are on a daily basis; many of these issues are issues that make sense at this global level, I was also very fortunate that in the undertakings to take on these challenges, I got one hundred per cent support from the President of the republic and his lieutenants and till these days, there was nothing that we required to get the job done, that hasn’t been done. That is why I am always conscious that we must give an account of ourselves personally and as a nation. It is also a privilege and every day, I remember I complete this work the best ways possible.

Choice of priorities

All of these are elements the global world itself appreciated as key to having a safer world for all. And each of these elements features prominently in the 17 goals of the SDGs. I decided that we should put a lot of attention to those elements because they are important. First of all, the eradication of poverty; I agreed that if you remove poverty, in societies, among individuals, definitely one-half of the problems of the world would be solved. This is when people are not poor and they are able to educate their children, able to eat, look after their health and cultural needs.

Now, education is the second most important element because there is nothing that happens outside the purview of education and I think this is something that is absolutely critical for me. To your question, because I am a teacher, I cannot say no. But even those who are not teachers can see why education is important. Without education, nothing really can happen.

And in terms of inclusion, I think inclusion is key. It’s also an issue that is close to the hearts of member-states, women, the girl-child, the disabled, the minority and others. When you exclude people, you cannot provide equal service. These are issues that connect. This is why we thought, and not just me, all member-states agreed to the policies we rolled out. I am glad that till this day, even during the lockdown, these are issues that will continue to feature in our discussions and till the end of my presidency.

FATE Foundation Chairman and FATE Philanthropy Coalition for COVID-19 Coordinator Fola Adeola examines the battle against COVID-19

THE first case of COVID-19 was confirmed in Nigeria on the 27th of February 2020. Just a little over two months ago and, yet, it feels like a lifetime has elapsed.  The world we lived in then, is so much different from the one we are about to be released into, as the lockdown restrictions are lifted. When the lockdown was announced by President Muhammadu Buhari on the 27th of March, there were 65 confirmed cases in the country and the President’s Chief of Staff had just tested positive for the virus.  Today, we have confirmed over 2000 cases, and many of our beloved fellow citizens (more than 50) are no longer with us, having fallen in the wake of this novel coronavirus. May the souls of the departed rest in peace, and to those of us who remain on the journey of life, may God grant wisdom.  We need it, desperately, at this time to navigate the complexities ahead.

The month we spent sheltering in place was, without question, challenging; but in our isolation there was an odd sort of togetherness, a shared helplessness with the rest of the world.  Literally, everybody was hunkered down, numbering their afflicted, and counting their dead.  The world went from an insignificant number of confirmed cases and an even more insignificant number of COVID-19 deaths on March 27, to about three and half a million afflicted, and about quarter of a million deaths as at last count. Some countries have had it worse than others. With the U.S. recording over 60,000 deaths, and Italy, Spain and the UK each recording between 25,000 and 30,000 deaths, our own fifty-something fallen, in a population of almost 200 million, barely registers on the Richter scale of devastation in which the world has become engulfed.  But it is not a competition.  God knows we are not equipped to deal with what the countries of the West are going through.

The sojourn ahead, the path to a “new normal” on the COVID Action Train that each country has been forced to navigate will be less unified, more particular to each nation’s circumstances and challenges than the shared humanity of sickness and loss. Each nation is tasked with the burden of its re-emergence. So, let us turn our minds to our own COVID Action Train journey.

Perhaps a good departure point for us is a review of where we are, as a precursor to where we ought to be headed. When we began this journey in March, we had barely any infrastructure in place for the containment of this virus. But, somehow, with the borders closed and the elite locked in, nobody needed to tell Nigeria’s affluent that the country’s first line of defense rested with them.  The private sector – corporations, foundations, and individuals – took the lead. Within a few weeks, isolation centers, ICUs and treatment centers had sprung up in different parts of the country – particularly in Lagos. Over N30billion was donated, and additional in-kind contributions of food and healthcare products were and continue to be made. These donations made it possible for government, at the national and subnational levels, to make available cash stipends and “survival packs” to the more vulnerable populations in locked-down states. Everyday, citizens also  extended themselves to feed the disadvantaged in their neighborhoods, and displayed basic human charity. Setting aside some of the controversy around the quantum and efficiency of palliative relief, and the self-protection inherent in some of the charitable giving, it is impossible to deny that Nigerians stepped up. Even those with a penchant for looking gift horses in the mouth, must stop to at least acknowledge that this one time, with the fates of the rich and the poor “locked in,” Nigerians, particularly the elite, demonstrated a capacity to think beyond themselves that must – even for the most cynical of us –  offer hope,  at a time of such global devastation, that when push comes to shove, we will do for ourselves and one another. That maybe, just maybe, our self-loathing is not so entire as to obscure our collective desire to triumph over disease and death. That maybe, just maybe, the candle of enlightened self-interest may have embered, and maybe, just maybe, it can be fanned into a flame that will light our path out of the valley of the shadow of COVID-19. Perhaps…

IT is probably also worthwhile to examine our COVID statistics and acknowledge a few things.  Neither our confirmed cases, nor the number of recorded deaths is particularly high; not yet.  And to those who would argue that the numbers are inaccurate, and cannot form the basis of sound decision making, I can only say that while that is true, the same is probably true of most countries around the world. We have not tested enough. I agree. I am, however, strongly of the view that we cannot and will not, for the foreseeable future, be able to afford the level of universal testing that would give us tangible path-lighting information.

There are, however, more basic in dicators, even if imprecise, that we can examine. Our hospitals are not yet overburdened, our emergency COVID-19 centers are not at full capacity, our morgues are not spilling over, we are not modifying refrigerated containers to hold the dead, and we are not constrained to dig mass graves. The imagery is stark, and I apologize to those whose sensibilities may still be penetrable, despite these past few weeks of CNN onslaught. This is the unfortunate reality of many of the countries of the West, who, before this pandemic, would have had their healthcare systems described as robust.  Our very fortunate position is not the triumph of preparedness on our part for COVID-19, and it is important that we not deceive ourselves. It is the absence of an onslaught.  Those who choose to hide their affliction, as if an airborne disease should be a source of shame, by checking into uncertified private hospitals, can still do so because the hospitals are not overwhelmed; and those who scowl at the rich for carrying on like spoiled brats and choosing self-care over dedicated public health infrastructure do so because the IDH still has beds that we would like to see the rich occupy. We do not have pandemic-level infection rates in Nigeria. If we did, we would curse the rich for daring to monopolise the few beds that would offer ordinary people a chance at survival. Our infection rates are not high; not yet.

THIS is not to say, that efforts are not being made to get at least some idea of the numbers of infected people, outside of those who have self-reported or presented with symptoms.  Let us not sell our public health officials short. Lagos State has, since mid March, focused on expanding the testing dragnet to include contact tracing, and randomized sample testing in the various local governments. The same is true in Edo, Ogun, FCT and Kaduna. The results from these efforts will give us some sense, if we extrapolate, of the likely transmission and infection rates of the virus. Will it ever be enough to develop accurate projections? No, it will not.

But let’s not get carried away by the global clamour for testing. In the here and now, the resources don’t exist for universal testing in Nigeria, or indeed anywhere. There aren’t enough tests in the world, and they cannot be produced quickly enough. Even if they were available, all the cash donations of the elite and corporates put together would not cover the cost of universal testing here. What we can do, rather than fantasize, is examine the stats that we do have, and track other moderate to severe disease indicators like symptomatic presentation at primary care centres, hospitalisations and deaths – even if they are lagging indicators – that do not lend themselves as easily to obfuscation, and reach an educated conclusion. We do not have a pandemic, yet.

I emphatically use the word “yet” to qualify our COVID-19 situation, and have probably done so enough times in the course of this write-up to beg the question: “This man, are you praying for Corona to come?” It cannot, after all, be a coincidence that this lockdown occurred at the cusp of the Christian Lenten period, and the Holy Month of Ramadan. Yes. As a praying person myself, I need no convincing of the power and mercy of God in the affairs of men. I am, however, unconvinced that we are the only ones who pray, or that in this one thing, God is partial to Nigeria and Nigerians because the committed Christians and faithful Muslims in the rest of the world are somehow less worthy than we are. If God shows us mercy, and we never experience a full COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria, let it be because when the window to act was given to us – which others may not have had, mainly because of the virus’s migration pattern – we chose to act wisely, and use the information we have today that others did not at this stage in their own journey to alter the course of its trajectory in our nation.

It is probably useful that we also examine another important aspect of our COVID-19 profile.  When I describe us as not yet having a pandemic, it is important that we not read that to mean the expectation of a “second wave”. Frankly, that is much further ahead of where we are than any of us can venture to posit on. The number of cases, while low, has neither peaked nor begun to decline in Nigeria. We are, to be clear, easing the lockdown while still on the ascending end of the curve, much earlier in the course of the disease’s trajectory than the countries of the West. We can take this calculated risk because our numbers are low relative to population size, and frankly because we must strike that delicate balance between lives and livelihoods. We cannot afford to stay closed longer, so we have taken the upfront pain of a month-long clamp down, in the hope that this initial containment will improve our chances of long-term management. That is the strategy. We have not peaked, we have not plateaued. Our numbers remain on the rise. The first wave is still on course but our numbers are sufficiently low to enable a cautious restarting of our economy to ensure survival. Already, we are dealing with a collapse in oil prices. Most of our people inhabit a daily economy. Continued closure may not be an option.

AS we prepare to continue our COVID-19 Action train journey, we must consider what we know about this virus, and the possible alternatives ahead of us. It is possible that the infection rate in Nigeria will remain manageably low; because our tropical climate may be a deterrent, or/and because those of us in the developing world have more active immune systems and are less likely to develop severe disease, or/and because we are successful in adapting to a “new normal”.  It is  also possible that we will experience an aggressive steepening of the curve, because we are not special, or/and because that is the likely outcome if we fail to adapt to an enemy that is already within, or/and  because this virus has a continental sweep pattern, will travel when we eventually open up our borders, and be carried along or arrested  by whatever behaviors we begin to implement now.

EVEN with heat, and without migration, this virus has shown that it will spread here. So, we must continue on this journey knowing that this relatively “managed” situation of ours can, spiral out of control very quickly, given our lean resources, if we do not make significant changes as we ease the lockdown. We have been able to slow the spread thus far, but as we begin to move around again, those who have been exposed to the new cases we are recording today, will also start to move about and shed the virus in their droplets – as they speak, cough, sneeze and touch surfaces and currency notes everywhere they go. This is not a prediction of doom; it is an acknowledgement of science, and the realities of how this virus has behaved even on our own shores. Are we prepared to play the game of odds with nearly 200 million lives at close quarters?

Another thing to bear in mind, is that in the absence of a treatment or vaccine, COVID-19 will remain with us across the globe for the foreseeable future. Even the best-case-scenarios for vaccines and treatments put us at least a year to 18 months away. Having a formulation that works is one thing. As we have seen with testing, making enough of it to cover the world is another. We are probably some 2 to 5 years away from being able to treat this virus universally. This is a best-case scenario. This virus is not going away any time soon. It may travel in waves, peak and trough, but in the absence of a vaccine, the outbreaks are here to stay. Quite possibly, by the time a vaccine reaches us, herd immunity will likely have set in.  After all, we know that about 60 %to 70% of people who become infected will have mild or no symptoms. That even of those who develop moderate to severe disease, 65% to 75% will live. COVID-19 is not a death sentence, but it spreads easily and rapidly, and disease progression in the vulnerable, moves with a speed that makes the simultaneous treatment of many patients, literally a losing race against time. So the better we get at reducing the number of people who are infected at any one time, the more likely we are to be able to reduce the number of deaths in Nigeria; and  the more likely we are to benefit from the greater body of knowledge and treatment protocols that are being developed worldwide. We now know, for example, that the ventilators should be a last resort, as only approximately 20% of people who are put on them will likely make it off. Slowing down the spread also improves our chances of access to drugs. The more we are able to reduce the number of people with severe disease, the more likely we are to have enough medication to go round.

AS we transition from fully sheltering-in place to restricted interstate travel and reduced intrastate movement, my purpose in writing this article is to warn, like the town criers of old, that our next stop on the COVID-19 Action Train must be Redesign, not an express ride to Self-Congratulation. This is not over, not by any means! And we cannot allow ourselves to be lulled into a false and dangerous belief that post-lockdown means post-COVID-19. This is the time for all of us – leaders in the public and private sector, private citizens, parents, educators, all thinking and sufficiently educated people – to consider the information we have available about this virus, its behavior and management, and prepare as much as we can for the altered reality ahead of us. Our ONLY chance is to actively change the ways in which we live and work, to reduce the spread of this disease.  The rest of the world has its hands full; nobody is leaving their own country to come and save us.

I had written early last year about the 12 Giant Evils that plague our country. In COVID-19, a powerful cocktail of those – Disease, Squalor, Want and Ignorance – is what we are up against. It will likely proliferate the already-present evil of Idleness, and spill over into every aspect of our lives, if those who are, by fortune, not already Nigeria’s victims, do not act NOW to bridge the gap. Just as the private sector and private individuals acted swiftly to ensure that emergency facilities were put up, we must continue to act jointly and decisively – hand in hand with government (ahead of government, even) and with one another – to steer our COVID-19 Action train to a desirable destination.

I have heard many talk about hoping/praying for the best, and preparing for the worst.  We need to go further, and take proactive and extraordinary steps to redesign our lives and economy for the best because, honestly, the worst will decimate Nigeria. We must do what we can to avert it; it simply cannot be planned for.

WE must review the facilities and supplies we have acquired thus far, and start to move from emergency interventions to sustainable ones. We ought to apply the monies received from the EU, and IMF for COVID-19 interventions, to implementing a near to medium term healthcare overhaul. Temporary structures need to give way to permanent treatment facilities, with protocols that can be stepped up or down depending on what disease we are managing. Reinventing the wheel is unnecessary; we can start with re-tooling the teaching hospitals. We need to purchase equipment – ventilators are the most talked about – but we also need life support systems, telemedicine facilities to facilitate knowledge sharing. We live in the tropics. COVID-19 or not, we need more infectious disease treatment capabilities. We must not take our eyes off lassa fever, cholera, and the other diseases that were with us before COVID-19 came along, because they have not gone away. We need to train and adequately incentivise our health workers, and we need to bring a level of health awareness to our population. All of these things can be fast-tracked, not by building new white elephant healthcare projects, but by judiciously applying our limited resources to making whole the abandoned or incomplete facilities located in high-density areas where they will be utilized, COVID-19 or not. We can continue to upgrade the knowledge of hospital staff, and teach them to recognize disease presentation. We can inject funding into the pharmaceutical and medical equipment industries and start to produce more frequently used drugs/items locally. God knows, we need the jobs.

Beyond healthcare infrastructure and supplies, we need to ensure that we are able to prioritise steady power to hospitals and these healthcare manufacturers, particularly during healthcare crises. We must have state and national health emergency protocols and triggers. We must plan for the possibility of another, maybe more than one, lockdown. We must keep the conversation with citizens going, so that they are carried along and cooperative, if we need to return to sheltering in place down the line.  We must let them know that their behaviour as we return to daytime activity will determine whether or not we can continue to service the economy, and live. We must learn lessons from this first fire drill and avert, not prepare for worse.

IDEALLY, we should have a healthcare reform budget and implementation tracker, alongside our COVID-19 tracker – in plain sight, for all to see. It would be best if we could account for funds received and utilised sums, openly and transparently. It would be great if the public could see in real time, what the designated projects are, and cheer along as they are completed. It would be good if the private sector can see what can be done to bridge funding gaps through cash and in-kind donations. We are told that the funds received in the first round of COVID -19donations will be eligible for tax credits. It would be good if a Healthcare Infrastructure and Refurbishment Investment Tax Credit Scheme could be considered, as an extension of this. But let’s not let the best become the enemy of the good. It would be sufficient if we started simply by upgrading a few of the teaching hospitals and taking over their uncompleted projects.

While Healthcare reform addresses treatment, prevention is better, and it is a communal responsibility. We must take what we know about how the disease spreads, and modify the way we live with and in spite of it. Communication campaigns, as fervent as those we see during elections, and as star-studded as the ones we have seen in the last few weeks, are required now for an even nobler purpose.

We must help everyday people understand that each of us holds the other’s health in our hands. We have told employers that work can resume, we must also provide clear industry guidelines on how that work should proceed.  The guidelines must be practical and pragmatic. They cannot crush the cost structures of the businesses they are designed to protect, but they cannot be so discretionary, that business-owners’ short-cuts lead to workplace outbreaks. We have asked citizens to mask up, we must tell them the masks need to be washed daily, or risk the onslaught of other diseases. We will eventually ask children to return to school; how will we manage disease spread in already crowded classrooms. Masks are uncomfortable, how do we get children to keep them on?  What will we do about our dirty cash problem, that was here long before COVID-19? What will our “merrymaking nation” lives look like without parties?  How will we ensure that they don’t move indoors, go “underground,” and crowd homes rather than event centers?

We must also come to terms with some of the deeper implications of this “redesigned” life.  Other than large corporates, most businesses cannot afford to pay staff when they are not earning money. Many will not survive. In some cases, the month-long shutdown has already sealed their fates, others will limp along for a little while longer. For traders, dependent on regular aviation traffic to receive goods, their supply chains, lead time, buying costs, everything, will shift. Others have business models that simply cannot survive a “mask and distance” or curfew regime – restaurants, bars, hotels. What will happen to them? What happens to our event centers: will they be re-purposed and converted to other uses?  What about the entire economy that is built around our merry-making: catering, cakes, clothing, makeup, musicians, photography, money-changers, parking “attendants”, what adjustments will they need to make? Are these restrictions here to stay?  We must assume that they are, and prepare our people for significant disruptions and adjustments. Because human behavior is elastic, the first hurdle ahead will be getting people to recognize and heed the need to shift. We can expect that people will first attempt to return to the status quo ante, or some variant thereof, and only retreat if they are unsuccessful or suffer harm.

We can shrug; afterall, the problems will touch everyone. Why should some of us take Panadol for everybody’s headache?  The answer is “because we can”. Because we can put these newly unemployed people to work in a redesigned economy. Because we can invest in local production, and decrease our dependency on imports. Because we can do the unfashionable thing and finally shut our doors to anything but progress, without looking like fascists. Because we can find and weave together the silver linings in this haze of dark clouds into the fabric of a new society. Because we can ride the COVID Action Train to a different, better Nigeria. Because portfolio investors parading as FDI will flee, but if we, the owners of the economy, do the right things now, a path can be created towards welcoming real growth capital when the world is restored. And, frankly, because the alternative will engulf us all. Because if working parents lose their livelihoods, children will be pulled out of school, and ignorance will increase. Because this delicate balance of lives vs. livelihoods can only be managed if those who can join hands to create safe livelihoods for those whose ability to eke out an existence must be sacrificed for us all to live. Because hungry people will eventually take to the streets (the threat of this was palpable over the course of this lockdown), when opportunities to make an honest living suddenly disappeared. And because, in the new “balaclava nation” that we will occupy when we all “mask up,” faces will be obscured and only eyes – desperate eyes – will be last thing we see before the curtains fall.  God forbid we let it come to that.