Category: Special Report

  • Nigeria’s Popoola develops app for Britons, Nigerians to rate their leaders

    Nigeria’s Popoola develops app for Britons, Nigerians to rate their leaders Rate Your Leader is a fast-growing democracy app which allows voters in Nigeria and the United Kingdom to communicate with their elected representatives at the touch of a button. OLUKOREDE YISHAU examines this app developed by Nigeria’s Joel Oyeyinka Popoola, who grew up in Gbongan, Osun State

     

    In a few days, Theresa May’s era as the British Prime Minister will come to an end. Nominations for the Conservative leadership will close on June 10 and the first ballot will hold the day after. Through a series of ballots, aspirants will be eliminated until a final shortlist of two is chosen by party members.

    The Members of Parliament who announced their candidacy are James Cleverley, Michael Gove, Sam Gyimah, Matt Hancock, Mark Harper, Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, Boris Johnson, Andrea Leadsom, Kit Malthouse, Esther McVey, Dominic Raab and Rory Stewart.

    Cleverley and Malthouse have since pulled out of the race. The aspirants, who have shown interest in replacing May, have signed up to a democracy app allowing voters to contact them directly from their phone or tablet, a development which has led to the race being dubbed “the most accessible election ever”. The app, known as Rate Your Leader, is a fast-growing democracy app which allows voters in Nigeria and the United Kingdom to communicate with their elected representatives.

    The app designed by Joel Popoola, who had his childhood in Gbogan in Osun State, is programmed in such a way that communication on it cannot be abusive. The app can detect abuse and delete it. Day in, day out, more and more Members of Parliament, councillors, police and crime Commissioners are taking advantage of the app to communicate with their constituents.

    The Rate Your Leader app is available for free from the Apple and Google marketplaces. With the platform, politicians can also engage with registered voters in their constituencies. Popoola, who is Rate Your Leader founder and Tyne and Wear tech entrepreneur, said: “Whoever wins the race to become the next Tory leader, and the next Prime Minister, has a real job on his hands reaching out to the electorate. Every one of the 12 current candidates is clearly taking that very seriously by putting themselves in the position to enter into a dialogue with voters on a one-on-one level.

    “The fact that voters can use the Rate Your Leader app to do this means that this contest is arguably already the most accessible election ever.

    “There is a wide and diverse field of candidates, but what unites them is the claim that they can reach out to parts of the electorate not currently voting Conservative. With a clear commitment to digital engagement, they are at least backing up that claim.”

    Popoola’s motivation for developing the app is captured in these words: “Across the world, democracy is changing forever, and Nigeria is no different. Voters expect to have more influence on politics than our traditional representative democracy can necessarily accommodate.

    As a result, voters are either defecting to anti-establishment parties or becoming more and more attracted by direct action.

    “People’s political priorities and motivations are becoming more and more disparate and unpredictable, and politicians are clearly failing to ascertain what voters really want.” He believes the app will bridge the gap between politicians and the electorate.

    Popoola had his primary and secondary education at the St Paul’s Anglican Primary School and Gbongan Community High School. A British citizen of Nigerian descent, Popoola studied Accounting with a background in Banking, Finance and Insurance. He also holds a Masters degree holder in Managerial Psychology from the University of Ibadan.

    He said: “Around the world, from Trump supporters in America to Gillets Jaunes in France to Brexit supporters in the UK, people are feeling more and more out of touch with politics, and it’s only a matter of time before a similar apathy descends on Nigeria.

    One in three Nigerians uses Facebook, and technology offers the opportunity to connect politicians and people like never before. That dichotomy is driven by social media giants being unwilling, unable or both to effectively crack down on trolls and bots.”

    A citation of him by an organisation, which declared him Boss of the Week gives an insight into his person: “Here is a man whose penchant for knowledge in an ever competitive world propelled him into the IT world where he has practised professional software testing consultancy spanning a period of four uninterrupted and highly productive and eventful years.

    “His earliest career path saw him traversing through two superior financial institutions based in his home country, Nigeria; they are United Bank for Africa (UBA) and the former Intercontinental Bank, which is today a part of the ever-growing Access Bank. These institutions sharpened, shaped and honed his professional skills and grounded him in distinguishing Leadership roles with excellent service delivery in Banking Operations, Customer Care Management, Branch Start-up and Management, Relationship Management, Business Development, Risk Management and Information Technology.

    “Passionate about delivering exceptional services and standards within the un-compromised confines of policies and procedures in the achievement of high-demanding objectives and corporate targets, Popoola who lives permanently in England, has not forgotten that charity begins at home. He brings this phenomenon to life with his constant thoughts directed at events on the home front, especially the forthcoming general elections which is just a few weeks away.

    His desire to see the execution of the best of elections led to the creation of the Nigeria Democracy App, Rate Your Leader. This is a technology dedicated to correcting the inability and unwillingness of social media giants to crack down on bots and trolls, which inadvertently has had an adverse effect on their users, politicians and even global democracy.

    “Popoola’s consistency has over the years engendered his capabilities to not only execute his deliverables but to also exceed expectations in doing so. He is such a force to reckon with. “Probably proper to refer to him as a man who saw tomorrow, Popoola is using his technology to connect politicians with verified local electors using abuse-proof technology aims to ‘Take back democracy with technology.

    “Popoola’s ingenuity sets the standard in celebrating knowledge based on proven integrity towards rekindling an abuse-proof digital platform which connects voters and politicians. He has personally urged the electorate to embrace new technology to ‘take back democracy’ or risk the downside.

    “The Rate Your Leader app is a global online platform which helps politicians engage only with voters in their constituencies in an abuse-proof way and allows elected leaders to truly understand what matters most to the people who elect them while allowing local people to identify and contact their representatives at the touch of a button, direct from their phones or tablets. That is ingenuity at the highest level.

    “Consequently, as many that have lost faith in their representatives have just got their faith rekindled. The tech-preneur quoted research from YouGov, an international Internet-based market research and data analytics firm, headquartered in the UK, with operations across the world, which declared that only 18% of voters trust politicians to ‘do what is right’, with 66% believing their elected officials put personal interest before communal interest.

    “This decline in faith in traditional politics, he said, has coincided with the election of explicitly anti-establishment leaders in the United States, Brazil, Mexico, the Philippines and India, the result of the Brexit referendum the UK and in the case of the Gillets Jaunes, Paris, direct action on the streets. The Rate Your Leader has practically eased the distrust, thanks to the foresightedness of Mr Popoola.

    “Popoola has set a personal and professional value-chain of goals and has a proven track record of adding value and raising the bar through the unfettered contribution of significant milestones to business performance.

    “The achiever is a member of Tech London Advocates, and an Advance Member of The Institutes of Directors, and is totally, passionately and irrevocably committed to working with positive-minded people in creating a better world.

    “Mr Popoola is married to Dr Olusola Popoola nee Awomolo, and they are blessed with two lovely children Praise and Ife.” On the importance of the app, Popoola said: “Since Twitter, Facebook and others are not stepping up to the plate on this, we clearly need new democratic tech which allows genuine residents to interact with their elected officials in an abuse-proof way. Our Rate Your Leader technology can do it, so why can’t the tech giants? The technology allows elected leaders to truly understand what matters most to the people who elect them while allowing local people to identify and contact their representatives at the touch of a button, direct from their phones or tablets. The app, which also allows people to check if they are registered to vote and identify their elected representatives at the touch of a button, is free to download from the App store and other app marketplaces.

    “Democracy is now digital, which means social media companies have a responsibility to provide a safe space for both politicians and our democracy and they are evidently failing on both fronts. As a result, a troubling amount of our political debate in other parts of the world is dominated by Russian trolls and computerised bots while actual politicians are forced off social media by 21st-century pitchfork-wielding mobs. That cannot be right.” The app is programmed to also work in Nigeria and it will allow Nigerians to communicate with their leaders in such a way that abuse is eliminated.

     

  • Kidnappers on the prowl in Southwest (2)

    In this concluding part of our series on kidnapping, Southwest Bureau Chief BISI OLADELE, RAZAQ IBRAHIM (Ado-Ekiti), PRECIOUS IGBONWELUNDU (Lagos) and OSHEYE OKWUOFU (Ibadan) give the situation reports in Ekiti, Lagos and Oyo.

    In Oyo, kidnapping seems to be on the low ebb, compared with Ondo and Osun states.

    The Oyo State Police Command arrested 60 persons and recorded 15 kidnapping cases in the last six months.

    The suspects, mainly youths between the ages of 18 and 34, made confessional statements when paraded at the police headquarters, Eleyele, Ibadan. They are mostly of Fulani origin.

    While some blamed the devil for the crime, others said they were lured into it by friends who without knowing what they are going into. Others claimed they embraced the act to get rich.  Still, some said they went into kidnapping to avenge the alleged wicked conduct of their bosses.

    For instance, 37-year old Morenikeji Adeyemi, who kidnapped and strangulated his former employer’s wife and made away with her vehicle, claimed that he ded it with vengeance.

    Adeyemi, who was arrested by the anti-kidnapping squad, claimed that he committed the act because his boss sacked him after working for him for four years.

    The victim, Rachael Oyewumi Ayanwale 51, was a staff of the Federal School of Survey, Oyo.

    Before it was reported to the police, the victim was declared missing on April 11 by her husband and co-workers .

    Explaining the reason for abducting and killing the victim, the suspect said:  “I was hurt when my boss sacked me. That time, my wife just had her baby and because there was no income anymore, we lost the baby. “So, I thought of a way to get back at him. Because it was so painful.

    “My boss’ wife had once told me about her spiritual challenges and I had promised to take her to a place for prayers.

    “I was able to use that as a premise to lure her and I told her that I was taking her to a place  called  Aawe,  along Awe/Oyo road. “We took her car and along the way, she said she was pressed, so, she went into the bush. I followed her and strangulated her by the river in the bush.

    “I then took her vehicle and ran away before I was arrested two weeks ago by anti-kidnapping squad for killing my former employer’s wife. She supported my sack and owed me some months salaries”.

    Commissioner of Police Shina Olukolu, speaking on the growing cases of kidnapping  in the state, advised those who intended to go into it, to have a rethink, emphasising that the police would deal ruthlessly with anyone caught.

     

    Ekiti

     

    Ekiti State may be adjudged a fairly safe place for residents and commuters in recent times.

    The state is relatively peaceful with residents going about their businesses without fear. Yet, a few cases were recorded lately.

    On January 2, an accounting officer in Emure Local Government Area, Mr Abayomi Ajayi, was killed by unknown gunmen on Ikere-Ise Road while returning from work. He was in the company of two colleagues, Dr Fashina and Pastor Onaade, who were kidnapped.

    Barely a week after the incident, a former Commissioner for Lands during Governor Kayode Fayemi’s first the term, Mr Remi Olorunleke, and the Director of Administration, Gbonyin Council Area, Mr David Jejelowo, were also abducted on Ado-Ijan Road by unknown bandits. They later regained freedom after the police and other security operatives combed their suspected hideout.

    The Secretary-General of Christs’ School Alumni Association, Ado Ekiti, Mr Rufus Oladele, was kidnapped along Aramoko – Efon Road in Ekiti State. He spent four days in captivity before regaining freedom.

    Sources said N5 million ransom was paid to the kidnappers before the release of the Erinjiyan Ekiti indigene. The abductors initially requested N10 million.

    According to sources, the amount was contributed by some members of the alumni, relations and well-meaning members of his community to secure his safe release.

    The spokesman for the police in Ekiti State, DSP Caleb Ikechukwu, who confirmed the release, said: “Through the intensive effort of the Command operatives, Oladele Rufus (male) has been released by the kidnappers.

    “The Command has emplaced watertight security at all strategic areas in order to curb, arrest criminals and kidnappers within the State.

    ” All the Divisional Police Officers have been warned to beef up adequate security within their areas of responsibilities”, Ikechukwu said.

    However, appreciation goes to the Ekiti State Police Command and other sister agencies that had embarked on the collaborative mission which had been yielding positive results with kidnapping and other violent crimes drastically reduced in the state.

    The Police Command formation of anti-kidnapping unit and the building of other supportive security architecture brought down the rate of abduction in the state.

    The operational task force operates on major highways for  24 hours, moving across the 16 Local Government Area of the State not just for visibility policing,  but to raid black spots where criminals are using as hideouts.

    Since the coming of the new Police Commissioner, Mr Asuquo Amba,  to Ekiti, rate of abduction had become an occasional occurrence in the state.

    Fayemi had in January when three persons were kidnapped, promised to pump more money into security issues, so that the police, in particular, can be in good stead to combat crime.

    Fayemi had tasked traditional rulers and community leaders in the State to collaborate with security agencies to ensure adequate security of lives and properties in their domain.

    The governor gave the charge last week Friday during security stakeholders meeting with traditional rulers and heads of all security agencies in the state.

    According to the governor, the meeting became necessary in the face of security challenges facing the state, especially from the border towns of the state.

    Dr Fayemi, who said the issue of security challenges are not unique to Ekiti alone, disclosed that he was already working with governors of neighbouring states of Ondo, Osun and Kogi to ensure adequate combing of the areas.

    The governor charged the traditional rulers to monitor and interrogate any new face they found in their domain and possibly report them immediately to security operatives in their areas.

    Dr Fayemi, while assuring that his administration will not relent in his efforts of providing adequate protection of lives and properties to the people said he had beefed up security on the Efon-Alaaye axis of the state by increasing the number of soldiers manning the area hoping that same will soon be done in the other borders with other states.

    He warned individuals shielding criminals to desist from the act forthwith or face the full wrath of the law adding that it is imperative for both individuals and the traditional council to cooperate with security operatives by supplying timely and useful information about criminals hiding in their communities.

    Fayemi assured the traditional rulers that his administration will collaborate with the local communities to ensure adequate security adding that issue of security is not for government alone.

    He said: “We have decided to call every single traditional ruler who presides over our communities that are on the boundaries of Ekiti state, our border communities with other states, and I thought in finding a long lasting solution, it would be good to have them drive the agenda of our security and safety strategy.

    Read also: Kidnappers on the prowl in Southwest (I)

    “The security chiefs and I have met repeatedly including last week after the incident that happened along Efon-Iwaraja axis where some of our citizens were kidnapped, fortunately, they were released after a couple of days.

    “But we then decided that we needed a stronger method, but this stronger measure cannot just be purely the security measure, we still need a traditional community response because of the intelligence we got after the Iwaraja incidence is very disturbing. We’ve always wondered how these things happen without us having either advance notice or having information that is accurate enough for us to tackle it.

    ” Because all of us know if a stranger comes to anywhere in Ekiti, within one hour, the Kabiyesi, the chiefs or the community heads would know. Some communities, of course, are larger but the local intelligence would pick up information about any untoward activity taken place and if this has not happened, then we all have a lot more to do.

    “We have to use methods that are effective. In some states, they’ve resulted in extreme methods, I hope we won’t have to get there. In some states, if they find a kidnapper in any house in any community, they demolish the house before they even ask a question. Anybody who is found harbouring a kidnapper, a bandit or a criminal of any sort in their residence is not just going to be held liable, they may lose their property in such places. Like I said I don’t want to go the extra-legal route but I would like to learn from the experience of our royal fathers.”

    As kidnapping ravages Southwest Nigeria, it is unclear if measures being introduced in tackling the criminal act is sufficient to assure residents, motorists and farmers that the region will become safe again in the nearest future.

     

    Statistics and others

     

    From statistics released by Mba on Wednesday ,  2,175 suspects have been arrested for kidnapping, armed robbery, murder and cultism since April 5. He also said 63 kidnapped victims were rescued, 834 arms, 19009 live ammunition and two rocket launchers recovered within the same period.

    Despite assurances by the Inspector General of Police (IG) Mohammed Adamu and other service chiefs that  it would soon be history as well as alarming statistics on arrests released periodically, these kidnappers seem unperturbed in the manner they carry out sustain and coordinated attacks.

    While observers have argued the spate in the kidnapping was fuelled by poverty, unemployment, inequality socio-economic and ethnoreligious disparities, others blame the criminality on the alleged incompetence of stakeholders in the criminal justice sector and the outright disregard for certain provisions of the Administration of Criminal Justice Law of Nigeria, 2015.

    Among the provisions flaunted by stakeholders are the timeframe for cases to be charged to court; the procedure, conduct and deadline of criminal trials, including the number of adjournments to be allowed by a judge.

    An example is the case of alleged notorious kidnapper Chukwudimeme Onwuamadike, which is yet to be concluded more than one year after the police commenced prosecution. Many had thought the arrest of Evans and downgrade of the militants who operated through the waterways would mark the end of or reduce drastically cases of kidnap for ransom in the country but the reverse seems to be the case.

    A Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN), Emeka Ngige, believes the delay in the criminal justice sector was not the major factor triggering kidnapping in the country. He said the cause of the upsurge in the vice was more of social and economic than legal.

    ”The reason for the upsurge is more socio-economic than legal. Youth unemployment is a major force. The Almajiris of yesterday have matured into adults and teenagers and are part of the people wreaking the havoc. You can see that the issue is more prevalent in the north.

    “Justice sector delay is part of it but not the major problem. The question is how many kidnap suspects have been charged to court across the country? Apart from Evans how many have been charged to court in Lagos? So, you can see it is not a result of any delay.

    “It is just that our police personnel are not fighting the crime seriously. You can now see that the police have formed part of the people that pay ransom to kidnappers. So, it will look as if there is a kind of alliance between kidnappers and the police.

    “Where the police will be the one assisting the families of victim to drop money for kidnappers, you can see that there is a serious problem in our hands. Until we address the economic and social problems, we are in serious trouble.”

     

    An end in sight?

     

    Disturbed by the rise in kidnapping, the police in May launched an anti-kidnapping operation codenamed PUFF ADDER. This operation which was initiated by IG Adamu has seen the arrest of 314 suspects, said police spokesman Frank Mba, a Deputy Commissioner (DCP) on Monday.

    The operation, which involved raids of black spots, aerial, ground and water patrols by Special Forces, kick-started in the northwest and northcentral regions of the country.

    As the dislodged criminals fled into other regions, the operation became national with zonal and state police commands keying into it following a directive from the IG.

    According to him, new intelligence-driven strategies aimed at identifying, locating and dismantling kidnapping gangs across the nation have been introduced, just as he declined stating the number of recorded kidnap cases this year.

    He assured that these strategies would complement ongoing Operation Puff Adder and would bring the criminals and their collaborators to justice.

    The operation will involve the deployment of undercover operatives, decoy operations and high-level tactical missions with active participation of operatives drawn from the conventional police units. The operatives will be drawn from the Force Intelligence Unit, the Special Anti-Robbery Squads (SARS), Anti-kidnapping Squad and the Police Tactical Units comprising the Police Mobile Force (PMF), Counter Terrorism Unit (CTU) and the special forces, he said.

    “Currently, there are massive strategic security operations, both covert and overt missions, taking place in different parts of the country, aimed at subduing the criminal gangs and restoring sanity to the land.

    “However, because of the covert and sensitive nature of these operations, I will not discuss them for now. But Nigerians should be assured that the entire law enforcement and intelligence community in Nigeria will not rest until we win the battle against crimes and criminality.”

  • Kidnappers on the prowl in Southwest (I)

    Kidnapping has been on the rise in the Southwest, which was hitherto considered out of harm’s way. The police and other security agencies are throwing everything into the fight against the menace. In this report, BISI OLADELE, PRECIOUS IGBONWELUNDU (Lagos), DAMISI OJO (Akure) and RAZAQ IBRAHIM (Ado-Ekiti) x-ray the situation.

    Ayo Oladele did not prepare for what happened that Saturday. As the Secretary-General of Christ’s School Alumni Association, Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State, he was conversant with the state. But,  he  got the shock of his life when he was whisked away two Saturdays ago at Efon-Alaye by gunmen. The day after on the same road, Ibadan-based twins Kehinde and Taiwo Olowoafara were also abducted by a gang which demanded N22million ransom.

    In April, Lagos Fire Service Director Musibau Rasaki and other commuters on the Ikorodu-Epe Road fell victim to another kidnap gang.

    From Lagos to Ondo, Abeokuta to Ekiti, Ibadan to Osogbo, kidnappers are on the prowl. Gone are the days when people moved safely from one town or community to another in the Southwest.  Hitherto, motorists and commuters looked forward to such journeys and some of the delicacies enjoyed on the road. Such delicacies  Dodo Ikire (peculiar fried plantain known with Ikire), akara Osu (bean cake), Ogbomoso mangoes, Ondo pounded yam, freshly tapped palm wine accompanied by bush meat and plenty of fresh fruits including walnuts, freshly cooked maize which is thrust into vehicle windows by hawkers to entice motorists and commuters. The thought of these items increased interest in the journeys those days while the highway trading boosted the economy of such towns and communities.

    But not any longer. Things have changed completely. Today’s realities include high-security challenges, including kidnapping and armed robbery. For many residents in the region today, only journeys that cannot be avoided are undertaken due to the high risks.

    Though the security challenges are not peculiar to the Southwest alone, the menace has reached an alarming rate in the region in recent times. Kidnappers, who thrived in Southsouth and Southeast Nigeria some years ago, seem to have either relocated to Southwest or those who learnt from them have relocated to Southwest to perform the evil enterprise.

    In the current kidnap misery, traditional rulers, lecturers, businessmen and women, civil servants as well as ordinary citizens are being abducted regularly on inter-town roads with their families coughing out huge sums of money to ransom them. They are humiliated and made to trek long distances on barefoot. Some victims lose their lives in kidnappers’ den while those who survive to narrate chilling experiences.

    Read also: YCE, PDP, Yoruba youths warn over rising insecurity in Southwest

    The attention of the world shifted to Osun State lately with the kidnapping of traditional rulers and a lecturer at the Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU) Ile-Ife, Prof. Olayinka Adegbehingbe. The lecturer was abducted around Ikoyi/Apomu junction of the Ibadan-Ife expressway in Ikire, a border town between Osun and Oyo states while returning from a journey to Lagos. He was with his wife, Bernice, on the journey. Their vehicle was intercepted at about 6:30 pm by the armed bandits who were reportedly shooting to force motorists plying the busy road to stop. The lecturer’s wife, who is the Dean, Faculty of Clinical Sciences, OAU, slumped and was left behind while her husband was whisked away into the bush. According to Adegbehingbe, he trekked in the forest for about six hours with the hoodlums armed with Mark 4 guns and ammunition.

    The news of his kidnap spread like a wildfire, causing anger in many residents across the region. His family coughed out N5 million to secure his release.

    Recounting his ordeal, Adegbehingbe said: “Those who abducted me were Fulani herdsmen and they had four guns and multiple rounds of ammunition as well as different dangerous weapons. Before settling for N5.04 million after serious negotiation, they first demanded N30 million ransom.”

    The state has witnessed a number of kidnaps in the last one year, making it the latest hotbed of kidnappers. Some inter-state roads have been identified as flashpoints. For instance, kidnappers regularly strike on Iwo-Osogbo Road, the Akure-Ilesa Road via Ondo State, Ijebu-Jesa/Esa Oke/Erio/Aramoko Road from Ekiti State and a number of other deserted roads within Osun State including Osogbo-Ibokun-Ada Road. Also, few cases of kidnap have been recorded recently in Ikirun, Inisa and Okuku communities along the highway leading to Kwara State.

    Most of the victims described their abductors as fierce-looking, armed and of Hausa-Fulani extraction. Narrating his ordeal to the Southwest Reports, a traditional ruler in Atakunkosa West Local Government Area of the state, the Atagunmodi of Itagunmodi, Oba Michael Famadewa-Kosile, said he was accosted a few kilometres from his domain while returning from a ceremony at Ilesa around 9.30 pm on May 30, last year. According to him, the hoodlums shot at his Toyota Highlander Sports Utility Vehicle (SUV), forced him to a halt and led him into the bush. He recalled that the gunmen forced him to trek for about three hours inside a forest. The monarch, who is a septuagenarian, said he was made to lie down and given several lashes.

    But fortune smiled on him when, according to him, his abductors fell asleep. He quickly escaped before they woke up. However, he lost about N600,000 which he had in his vehicle to the bandits.

    In his view, criminal activities in his domain could be linked to illegal mining of gold, which he said is predominantly carried out by the Hausa who are in search of economic fortune from the discoveries of mineral resources in the area. Oba Famadewa-Kosile, therefore, advised the Osun State Government to ban mining in the area.

    Similarly, a 60-year old traditional chief in Ibokun, the headquarters of Obokun Local Government Area of Osun State, Dunsin Amusa, was kidnapped about three weeks ago. He spent two nights with his abductors before his release. Amusa, who is the head of hunters in the area and the Tirimi of Ibokun,  with a woman simply identified as Tayo, were abducted along the Ilare/Esa Odo Road in Ilara around 10.00 pm. Their abductors collected N1m ransom contributed by groups and individuals in Ibokun before the victims regained their freedom. The kidnappers reportedly seized the mobile phone and motorcycle of the man who went to deliver the ransom to them at an agreed point in the bush. The man, who took the ransom on a motorcycle to Oke Imesi junction, was said to have entered the forest around Oye River area in Imesi Ile and had to travel several kilometres into the forest to meet the bandits.

    In another incident about a month ago, three regular marshalls of the Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC) in Osun State was abducted by a gang of gunmen at Erin-Ijesa area of Akure/Ilesa highway. They were travelling late in the afternoon on the road when the armed bandits intercepted their vehicles. Two of the victims, identified as Abioye and Bayeguni were released after paying an unspecified amount of money as ransom while unidentified their person died of exhaustion in the custody of the kidnappers.

    Religious leaders are not spared in the nefarious act. About three months ago, some armed hoodlums kidnapped a Methodist Presbyter in Osun State, Very Rev Kayode Akande, and two other church leaders along the Iwo-Osogbo Road. The victims were forcefully taken away by the gunmen around 7.00pm. They were said to be returning to Osogbo from Ile Ogbo after a meeting to celebrate Father’s Day when they were abducted. They also paid an unspecified ransom before they were released.

    Very pathetic was a case of one staff of the Osun State College of Technology, Esa-Oke, who was killed while trying to escape from kidnappers who laid an ambush for them between Esa-Oke and Ijebu-Jesa about four months ago.  Six of his colleagues were kidnapped on that fateful day. They were returning after the closing of work when the incident happened. Two students of the institution were also kidnapped by the gunmen in that operation. The unlucky victim, Olaniyi Temitope, was a Registry staff of the institution, who would have bagged his PhD degree a few days after the incident. The kidnapped staff, Olaleye Olalekan, Adeyeoluwa Bankole, Jesuola Ajibola, Adenreti Chukwu and Rachael Onyinocha Akinboboye gained their freedom a few days after paying some ransom.

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  • Buhari faults injection of new projects into 2019 Budget

    PRESIDENT Muhammadu Buhari yesterday signed this year’s N8.92 trillion Budget into law – reluctantly.

    He said the N90.33 billion injected into the bill by the National Assembly would disrupt the implementation of the government’s policy, especially the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP).

    He promised to engage the next National Assembly to smoothen the rough edges in the budget.

    The President faulted the Appropriation Bill approved by both Chambers of the National Assembly because it was jacked up by N90 billion from the figure he proposed on December 18, last year.

    The National Assembly had passed N8.92 trillion as the 2019 Budget Appropriation Bill as against the N8.83trn presented by the President.

    The increase, according to the National Assembly, was to cater for security challenges in the country, packages for lawmakers and support for Zamfara State, among others.

    But, signing the budget yesterday, the President faulted the increase in the budget, which introduced new projects.

    He said: “I would like to take this opportunity to thank the leadership of the National Assembly and indeed all the Distinguished and Honourable members for all the hard work they put in to get us here.

    “You will all recall that in December 2018, I presented our 2019 budget proposal with the theme: ‘Budget of Continuity’. Our goal was to use this budget to move the economy further on the path of inclusive, diversified and sustainable growth.

    “Back then, I proposed a total expenditure of N8.83 trillion to the National Assembly for appropriation, targeting strategic and impactful projects and initiatives.

    “However, the 2019 Budget I will be signing into law today provides for aggregate expenditures of N8.92 trillion. This is an increase of N90.33 billion over our submission.

    “This increase reflects changes introduced by the National Assembly. In some areas, expenses we proposed were reduced while in other areas they were increased.

    “There were also certain areas where new additions were introduced into the budget. More details of the approved budget will be provided by the Honourable Minister of Budget and National Planning.

    “Of course, some of these changes will adversely impact our programmes, making it difficult for us to achieve the objectives of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP).

    “Although I will be signing this bill, it is my intention to continue to engage the National Assembly to ensure we deliver on our promises.”

    According to the President, he will be engaging the leadership of the Ninth National Assembly as soon as they emerge, to address some of the concerns with the budget.

    His administration will also look at how to improve the budget process and return the country to the January – December fiscal year timetable.

    Buhari acknowledged the efforts of the Minister of Budget and National Planning, the Minister of Finance, the Budget Office of the Federation, and everyone who collaborated and worked painstakingly to produce the 2019 Appropriation Bill.

    Speaking with reporters after the signing, House of Representatives Speaker Yakubu Dogara noted that the executive must start with early and timely submission of budgets to the National Assembly to change Budget fiscal year.

    Read also: ‘50% of capital budgets unimplemented’

    He said: “The issues he was raising concerning certain reductions that were made in the budget and some subheads increases were made and that such reductions made it a bit difficult for some of those projects to be implemented.

    “But he said it is an ongoing process and will have discussion with the leadership the National Assembly to see what they will be able to do to in order to put that behind them and then execute whatever critical projects that suffered some form of hurt in the process of passing the project in the National Assembly.

    “Above all, what I heard him say is the issue of aligning the appropriation from January to December just like the case in the private sector. I think that can really be achieved but it must start with the early and timely submission of the budget to the National Assembly from the executive.

    “A situation where the budget is submitted in December, even if you shut down the  entire National Assembly, we will not be able to achieve the January deadline.

    “So, going forward, this is a collective exercise and the legislature. The budget is a law and being a law it falls within the purview by constitution and design of the National Assembly to make the law.

    “In most cases, it is the National Assembly that decides how federally generated receipts should be expended and the National Assembly took that decision and we are glad that the President has signed it into law.”

    On how to resolve the issue of the National Assembly either  reducing or increasing budget figures, Dogara said: “Well, I have told you that the job of the National Assembly is not to agree with the executive. I don’t think any congress in the world does that.

    “By the constitution and design, the executive informs us what they intend to do and the representatives of the people in National Assembly decides what is priority since they represent the people.

    “It is going to be a knotty area, but we will continue to define the relationship between the executive and the legislature. Whether it is Britain or the United States (U.S.), wherever it is, there is always a strain on this issue of budget because it deals with high stakes distributional issues as to who gets what, which part of Nigeria gets this and that, so it will continually be an issue.

    “We should not be defined by those issues rather we should define those issues by forming consensus that is the path to progress and we will continue to do that.”

    Senate President Bukola Saraki arrived late for the ceremony but he was represented by Deputy Senate President Ike Ekweremadu.

    He arrived at the President’s Office at 11.17am.

    Ekweremadu had said that Saraki would be coming straight to the Villa from the airport.

    In a related development, Minister of Labour and Employment Chris Ngige faulted the nation’s budgetary system alleging that since 2016, there has been distortions and insertions of budget lines under the guise of constituency projects by the National Assembly, saying such act has greatly affected the performance and government programmes and projects.

    Ngige, who spoke at his valedictory session, explained that there have been insertions of what he described as questionable projects in the budget with money sliced off from aggregate allocation to main ministries and their parastatals to create new and many cases projects and programmes unrelated to the core mandate of the ministry.

    He said: “This is clearly not in consonance with the spirit of Section 80 of the constitution for which the authors of the constitution gave powers to the elected representatives of the people to “look” at the budgets, which when presented by the Executives, still remains an “executive work proposal.”

    “Therefore, let the NASS consult the Executive via robust defence sessions in order to allow the Executive to do its own work unfettered.

    “In this light, it is a completely incongruous and serious act of indiscipline against the Public Service Rules (PSR) for Heads of Treasury and Non-Treasury funded parastatals to surreptitiously visit lawmakers to suggest to them or connive with them to disrupt already agreed budgets especially those they had defended in their respective Ministries. Some Chief Executive Officers of the parastatals in the ministry had lately engaged in this act and should retrace their steps as we move to the next level.”

    The minister advocated for full funding of the annual budget, saying “budget funding up to 100% should also be the target of Government as anything less than 75% distorts programmes and projects execution, making for late completion and in some cases abandonment of the projects in subsequent Budget cycles.”

  • APC, PDP in two-horse race: How the states may vote

    The presidential election holds on Saturday. Although over 60 parties are participating in the poll, from all indications, it is a two-horse race between President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and former Vice President Abubakar Atiku of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Here is an updated analysis of how the states may vote. Yusuf Alli, Sam Egburonu and Dare Odufowokan report.

    NORTH EAST ZONE

    BAUCHI STATE

     

    Ordinarily, this is an electoral fortress for Buhari who garnered 931,598 votes in the state in 2015 compared with a paltry 86,085 votes received by ex-President Goodluck Jonathan. But the coalition which brought Governor Mohammed Abubakar to power during the last poll collapsed – leading to a major crack in APC and the dwindling of the party’s fortunes.

    Until Buhari and the APC pulled a fast one, the state was almost lost to the PDP going by massive defections from the ruling party to the opposition. Among those who left was the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara. Armed with an impressive war-chest, a former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Senator Bala Mohammed, also revved up the PDP in the state with the choice of Baba Tella (a grassroots politician) as his running mate for the governorship race. The ex-minister, who is from Bauchi South Senatorial District like the governor might split the votes from the zone.Other factors in favour of the Bauchi PDP are Dogara (who commands the strong following among Christians and minorities in the state) and a former Majority Leader in the House of Representatives, Abdul Ningi.

    However, in recent weeks, Buhari and APC have embarked on a salvage mission which is paying off for the party. Apart from wooing ex-Governor Isa Yuguda to the ruling party, the President has also courted aformer National Chairman of PDP, Adamu Mu’azu, the immediate past Deputy National Chairman (North) of PDP, Sen. Garba Babayo Gamawa and a Board of Trustees member, Alhaji Kaulaha Aliyu. The major heavyweights in Bauchi politics are back in APC to give more bite to the campaign of the party.

    Verdict: Buhari to win.

     

    BORNO STATE

     

    In spite of the insurgency, Borno is still a stronghold of the APC and Buhari. The people of the state have undiluted loyalty to the president and his commitment to the war against Boko Haram has strengthened their political bond with him. The humble and unifying disposition of Governor Kashim Shettima in governing the state have also left APC more united for a straightforward victory at the polls. Initially, there were fears that the imposition of a former Commissioner for Reconstruction, Rehabilitation and Resettlement, Prof. Babagana Zulum as the APC governorship candidatemight create crisis, but the governor managed the stakeholders with maturity.The return of a former National Chairman of PDP, Senator Ali Modu Sheriff to APC, which he assisted to form, has been a game-changer which has left PDP in quandary.

    The seemingly intractable crisis in opposition party in the state has affected its fortunes. Since the ill-fated governorship primaries of the party, it has broken into two factions led by Alhaji Usman Baderi and Alhaji Zanna Gadama respectively. The PDP is not only in bad shape to promote its governorship candidate, Mohammed Alkali Imam, it is yet to win the confidence of the masses of the war-torn state. The defection of the highly-respected ex-Governor of old Borno State, Alhaji Mohammed Goni (1979-1983) from PDP to APC has made the victory of APC a fait accompli.There are 2,315,956 votes available in the state and APC may win with a landslide.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    YOBE STATE

     

    A politically homogenous enclave, Yobe State has been traditionally progressive since 1999. It has always voted against PDP despite its political transformation from All Peoples Party (APP) to All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and APC.  The smooth transition of power laid down by the first civilian governor of the state, Senator Bukar Abba Ibrahim has helped in consolidating its progressive credentials.  The Kanuri-Fulani collaboration has made the state impregnable for the opposition. But the Kanuri have been governing the state since its creation.Although the PDP is rebranding itself with the emergence of Ambassador Umar Iliya Damagum as its consensus gubernatorial candidate, the party is still weak. Its weakness was fueled by the crisis of confidence between ex-Minister of Police Affairs, Adamu Maina Waziri, who has been the sole gubernatorial flagbearer of the party since1999, and the current Senator representing Yobe South Senatorial Zone, Mohammed Hassan. They both emerged from parallel primaries.In 2015, APC received 446,265 votes as opposed to just 25,256 for the PDP. This pattern is set to repeated as Buhari’s appeal remains strong here.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    TARABA STATE

     

    This is one Northeastern state where analysts expect PDP to do well. Governor Darius Ishaku is still popular and former Minister of Defence, Lt. General Theophilus Danjuma who is the governor’s political godfather, remains highly influential. He has not hidden his opposition to a second term bid by Buhari.The security problems which the state underwent in the last three years with ethnic undertone have not helped electoral chances of the APC. The defection of ex-Minister of Women Affairs, Aishatu Jummai Alhassan from APC to United Democratic Party (UDP) has made the latter to lose its soul. The internal wrangling within APC has not put it ingood stead for next month’s election. Still, the massive turnout for last Thursday’s APC presidential rally in Jalingo, the state capital, has become a talking point. While the PDP is still expected to prevail here, the ruling party would give it a close fight. In 2015, the difference between the parties was roughly 50,000 votes. PDP raked in 310,800, while APC managed 261, 326 votes. A re -enactment is likely.

    Verdict: Atiku

     

    GOMBE STATE

     

    Initially, it was thought that the contest between APC and PDP in Gombe State would be a keen one. The outgoing Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo is trying to assert himself as the new kingmaker.  The party on October 3 lost Sardauna Gombe, Alhaji Jamilu Isiyaku Gwamna who defected from PDP to APC. Gwamna’s parting of ways with PDP has made the race keener.For the presidential poll, ethnic fault lines will be sole determinants. The ethnic groups in the state are Fulani (Northern part); Tangale (Southern part); Hausa, Tera, Waja, Bolewa, and Kanuri. Both Buhari and Atiku are of Fulani stock.

    However, Buhari’s mesmerising connection with the masses of the people would see him win the state handily again. In 2015, APC polled 361,245 votes as against 96,873 for PDP. Watchers of politics in the state expect a similar thing on Saturday.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    ADAMAWA STATE

     

    Adamawa has been a PDP State since 1999 until the APC’s 2015 bandwagon altered its political focus. The next poll in the state will draw more attention than elsewhere because the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar is from there; Buhari married from the state to make the First Lady, Hajiya Aisha Buhari, equally a factor in the presidential race.

    The likely factors in the state are religion, ethnicity, security challenges, the political elite, money, and good governance. If performance is anything to reckon with, Governor Jibrilla Umaru Bindow’s achievements will make it an easy ride for APC.

    Although Atiku attempted to install a governorship candidate in 2015 under the banner of APC, he failed in his bid because Bindow defeated his preferred candidate twice at the primaries.

    Expect a major electoral battle here. Adamawa may be too close to call.

    Verdict: Battleground

     

    NORTH CENTRAL ZONE

    KWARA STATE

     

    In 2015, President Buhari, the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) won the presidential election in Kwara State, polling 302,146 votes, while the then incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP polled 132, 602 votes. It was the first time the state voted against the presidential candidate of the PDP since 2003 , and the party lost to APC with almost 200, 000 votes.

    Today, the state is a major focus point following the return of Senate President Bukola Saraki to the PDP. It is also attracting attention because the threat to the status quo in Kwara politics, as symbolized by Saraki dynasty, is real today more than ever before. The rate at which the APC’s ‘O To Ge’ (Yoruba for Enough is Enough) mantra caught fire like dry leaves in the harmattan, is reportedly a source of worry for the Senate President and his political family.

    The emergence of the APC’s candidate, Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq, from a noble family like the Sarakis has changed the usual scenario where Saraki would confidently boast of the support of the royals and elites in the state. Today, the creme de la creme in Ilorin are sharply divided in their support for APC and PDP ahead of the general election on account of Abdulrazaq’s candidature.

    Despite the power of incumbency and over reliance on money politics, it won’t be an easy ride for Saraki in Kwara Central District. In the last one month, the Senate President has retreated to fault lines for political survival and to retool his campaign machinery, but the people of Ilorin Emirate who dominate the district, are now sharply divided for and against him.

    The exodus of his loyalists and strategists to APC; the “O To Ge” (Enough is Enough) revolution; and the imposition of PDP governorship candidate, Razaq Atunwa, on the party.

    Factors that may swing electoral behavior this time include the looming protest votes from Offa and its environs over the recent bank robbery which claimed many lives; the spiral effect of losing Irepodun/ Ekiti/ Isin, Oke-Ero Federal Constituency to APC; and the neglect of the district in the scheme of things. The Ibolo, the Igbomina and the Ekiti in this district naturally detest the politics of the Sarakis.

    Against this backdrop, the relative strengths of the APC and PDP in the different senatorial districts is likely to impact the outcome of the February 16 contest. As things stand the race between Atiku and Buhari in Kwara is too close to call.

    Verdict: Battleground

     

    KOGI STATE

     

    It came to many as a surprise in 2015, when INEC declared Buhari of the APC as the winner of the presidential election conducted in the state. In an unexpected victory, he won by 60.3 % of the total votes. It was unexpected largely because Kogi at the time was governed by a PDP administration that appeared ready to be re-elected.

    But as the February 16 date of the next presidential contest draws nearer, it is uncertain if the APC under Governor Yahaya Bello can repeat the winning streak of the last general election in the state. Surprisingly, the PDP in the state appears to have woken up from its slumber, ready to chase Buhari’s men out of town if they are not careful.

    Verdict: Battleground

     

    BENUE STATE

     

    At the onset of the 2015 presidential election, Benue State was one of the few remaining states through which the then President Jonathan and the PDP were hoping to defeat the APC and its presidential candidate, Buhari. Most pundits gave the state to PDP. Surprisingly, and unfortunately for the PDP, the people of the state opted to follow the APC.

    Today, the two frontline political parties have huge tasks on their hands in their bid to take their campaign to the nooks and crannies of 23 local government areas in the state. The politics has largely been personality-based, but has also been coloured by economics, ethnicity and religion in the light of the herdsmen killings witnessed in the last two to three years.

    The scenario in the state is being monitored because the three senators from the state, who are leaders with massive support in the grassroots, are treading different political paths.

    Verdict: Battleground

     

    PLATEAU STATE

     

    Few days to the next presidential election, the political climate in Plateau State is as uncertain as it was in 2015, but Governor Simon Lalong’s leadership qualities have reunited and restored peace to the state. The main issue in Plateau for February poll is how to curtail the security challenge in the state. The people of the state are divided in their opinion as regard how well the APC administration has handled the menace of killer herdsmen across the country.

    Another issue playing a key role is religion which ex-Governor Jonah Jang has exploited in the past to sustain PDP. Being a Christian-dominated state, Buhari’s candidacy is seen from the prism of Hausa-Fulani /Muslim sentiments. But that approach may no longer work for the PDP as neither Buhari nor Atiku is a Christian this time around.

    To most observers, the presidential race might be neck and neck with PDP having a little edge.

    Verdict: Battleground

     

    NIGER STATE

     

    In spite of the fact that Governor Abubakar Sani Bello has a lot of political baggage that could make him lose his re-election bid, the goodwill of Buhari is his asset. The president is still adored in the state more than his PDP challenger, Atiku.

    Despite the well-advertised opposition of Gen. Ibrahim Babangida to Buhari’s re-election bid, the incumbent’s lopsided win in 2015 is expected to be repeated come February 16. Four years ago, he received 657,678 votes – dwarfing the PDP’s 149,222 votes. Our investigations show that the president’s popularity is still holding steady.

    A former PDP commissioner in the state said: “There is no doubt that Buhari will win Niger State. This has been his political terrain and voters in the state have not changed in following him.”

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    NASARAWA STATE

     

    During the 2015 presidential election, the then President Jonathan of the PDP, surprisingly won the presidential election in Nasarawa State, defeating main challenger Buhari of the APC. It was a surprise because the state has always been a stronghold of Buhari’s even when he had no formidable political platform to contest on.

    Not even the widespread opinion that Governor Tanko Al-Makura has done well in office had changed that status quo.

    Al-Makura’s decision to stamp his feet and allow power to shift from Nasarawa South District to Nasarawa North District for fairness and equity has deflated the anticipated winning formula of the opposition. This has in turn shored up the popularity of the ruling party in the north where the PDP held sway before now. This is expected to impact in favor of President Buhari in the presidential election.

    The harmony within the rank and file of APC in the state notwithstanding, it is still uncertain if Buhari can floor Atiku in the state.

    Verdict: Battleground

     

    NORTH WEST ZONE

    KANO STATE

     

    If there is any state giving PDP a headache, it is Kano which has been a hard nut to crack. In the heat of the recent gale of defections, the opposition had toyed with the idea of taking over the state which has about 5,457,747 votes in its kitty.

    The PDP has employed all sorts of political gimmicks but it suffered a big setback in the way it conducted the governorship primaries that led to the coronation of Alhaji Abba Kabiru Yusuf, a son-in-law to ex-Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso. Following the loss of the APC presidential ticket by Kwankwaso, he left the party with his disenchanted supporters.

    But that triggered a counter reaction: the mass movement of ex-Governor Ibrahim Shekarau and his supporters from PDP to APC. It was the last straw that broke the carmel’s back. Others who have deserted PDP are Prof. Hafiz Abubakar, a former Deputy Governor to Governor Abdullahi Ganduje, a former Managing Director of the Nigerian Ports Authority, Aminu Dabo; the immediate past National Treasurer of PDP, Bala Mohammed Gwagwarwa; Security Adviser to Kwankwaso, Gen. Danjuma Dambazzau (rtd); Sen. Isa Zarewa; and Mu’azu Magaji Dan Sarauniya, who was a former Senior Special Assistant to ex-President Goodluck Jonathan on SURE-P.

    But in an embarrassing turn of events, almost all of aforementioned who initially left APC with Kwakwaso, have since beat a retreat to the ruling party.

    No doubt, APC has a robust edge over PDP in Kano because of Buhari’s factor, the influx of new influential defectors, and the incumbency influence of Governor Ganduje who is more popular among the masses and Islamic clerics.

    Since 2003, Buhari has never lost in Kano State and this year’s poll will not be an exception. What remains to be seen if he can once again receive the 1,903,999 votes he got in 2015. PDP only managed 215,779 votes in that contest.

    Kwankwaso is now on the opposing side but he will be fighting against the combined forces of Buhari, Ganduje, Shekarau and his erstwhile lieutenants. It is not looking good for the PDP and Atiku.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    ZAMFARA STATE

     

    The irreconcilable intra-party crisis in the APC in Zamfara State almost left PDP waiting to be crowned as the next ruling party until the Appeal court gave APC a lifeline yesterday by recognising its primary election earlier nullified by the High Court. Governor Abdulaziz Yari and all the APC stakeholders threw decorum to the wind and the center did not hold again. Not even the intimidating presence of two ex-governors (Sen. Ahmed Sani Yerima and Mahmuda Aliyu Shinkafi) and the Minister of Defence, Gen. Mansur Dan Ali could help find a solution to the division.

    Four years ago Buhari received 612,202 votes to 144,833 for the PDP’s Jonathan.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    KADUNA STATE

     

    The political scenario in Kaduna State is complex in view of some dynamics in the last three and a half years.  The tense security situation in Southern Kaduna and Birnin Gwari axis has compounded the political permutations. The issues beclouding politics in the state are performance;  security challenge; the prolonged Hausa-Fulani/ Southern Kaduna cat and mouse relationship; religious factor especially mutual suspicion by Muslims and Christians; the rising Shiites clan and its attendant grave security implications; and distrust among political elites.

    Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai has controversially trudged on since 2015, his greatest asset is the enthronement of new governance modules which have reduced waste in government. Apart from pruning the size of his cabinet, he has cut frivolous expenses and his performance is appreciable. But his garrulous, uncompromising and dictatorial leadership style at a point alienated him from the masses.

    There are no old politicians in Kaduna State who are with him.  Members of the old brigade who were with him in 2015 like Suleiman Hunkuyi, Isa Ashiru, Yaro Makama, and Ambassador Sule Buba are now in PDP against him. These old hands have teamed up with ex-Vice President Namadi Sambo, a former National Chairman of PDP, Senator Ahmed Makarfi, and ex-Governor Ramalan Yero.

    But, Buhari is likely to retain his grip on the state albeit with a lesser margin in February.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    KATSINA STATE

     

    Despite the formidable nature of PDP in Katsina State, APC would still emerge victorious because of the Buhari factor. The people of the state want power to continue to reside in their domain for the next four years. The party boasts of a majority in the House of Assembly, it also controls all available seats in the National Assembly. Of recent, the APC won by-elections conducted in the state.

    Although ex-Governor Ibrahim Shema and the PDP governorship candidate, Garba Yakubu Lado, are pulling some strings, they are unlikely to erode Buhari’s grip on his home territory. Four years ago, he polled 1,345,441 votes here to PDP’s paltry 98,937. The landslide victory of 2015 is likely to be repeated on February 16.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    KEBBI STATE

     

    The sterling performance of Governor Abubakar Atiku Bagudu of Kebbi State in the last three and a half years has surpassed all permutations. He has brought his experience in the private sector to bear in managing the economy of the state. His focus on agriculture has led to massive employment and a rice boom. His ability to bring more supporters into APC, especially ex-Governor Saidu Dakingari and his deputy, Ibrahim Aliyu has sealed whatever hope was left for PDP.

    The recent attacks on the late Emir of Gwandu by the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar and the PDP over the 53 suit cases ferried into the country in 1984, have made things difficult for the main opposition party.

    Buhari won handsomely here in 2015, receiving 567,883 votes to the PDP’s 100,972 votes. He remains hugely popular in the state and is expected to win comfortably.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    SOKOTO STATE

     

    The battle in Sokoto State is between Governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal and his estranged godfather, ex-Governor Aliyu Wammako – with each of them having stakeholders in the state split between them.

    Besides his solid structure, some of those with Wammako are some ex-ministers, lawmakers and APC leaders including Umar Nagwari Tambuwal, Muhammed Maigari Dingyadi, Yusuf Suleiman, Abubakar Shehu Wurno, Jibril Gada, among others. His asset, however, is his closeness to the grassroots.

    The APC had an impressive campaign outing in the state recently and look set to repeat the comfortable victory of 2015. Back then, Buhari received 671, 926 votes compared to 152,199 votes for PDP. Nothing on the ground suggests that this pattern would change dramatically.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    JIGAWA STATE

     

    What is at stake in Jigawa State is a struggle for the soul of the state between ex- Governor Sule Lamido and Governor Abubakar Badaru whose rice production revolution has empowered many citizens. His problems are the alienated political elite and some royal fathers who are not enjoying as much largesse as they used to do in the past.

    Both APC and PDP attracted massive crowds when their presidential campaigns stopped over in the state capital, Dutse. However, for Atiku to win here, he would have to cover the margin of over 600,000 votes by which Buhari defeated Jonathan in 2015.

    Back then APC polled 885,988 votes to the PDP’s 142,904 votes. That seems, at this point, an insurmountable objective.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    SOUTHWEST ZONE

    OGUN STATE

     

    The presidential contest in Ogun state is already showing flashes of being an unusual one, but the result is most likely to be same as it was in 2015 when the APC defeated PDP by a hundred thousand votes. Buhari polled 308, 290 votes while former President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP took 207, 950 out of 559, 613 total votes cast. According to formal results announced, Buhari won in 13 local governments while PDP won in 7 local government areas.

    Save for a few changes expected to happen here and there, the outcome of the next presidential election in Ogun State may still remain close to what obtained in 2015. In spite of the support currently being enjoyed by Atiku and the PDP from former President Olusegun Obasanjo, Buhari will still win the presidential election in Egbaland convincingly.

    With the APC and APM in the state working towards the victory of President Buhari, and the two factions of the PDP unable to come together and galvanize their members towards the presidential election, the APC is looking good to win the presidential election in the state even with a wider margin that it posted in 2015.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    LAGOS STATE

     

    Not minding the threat to “take over Lagos” by the opposition PDP, it is convenient to predict that APC will win convincingly in Lagos State at the presidential poll. Pundits are even of the opinion that the opposition PDP will perform poorer than it did in 2015 when it gave the ruling APC a good fight in all the elections.

    APC scored 792, 460 to defeat the PDP which had 632, 327 in the presidential race back then.

    Although the PDP governorship candidate is working had to garner the votes for Atiku, the personality of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, national leader of the APC, and the recent restructuring carried out within the party, will do the trick once again and Buhari will win more votes in Lagos. Also, unlike in 2015 when some fallouts of its party primaries caused serious frictions within its ranks, the APC is today more united that it was four years ago.

    Also working against the PDP in Lagos State is the loss of majority of its prominent leaders to the APC. Chieftains like Chief Mrs. Remi Adiukwu, Senator Musiliu Obanikoro, and its then state chairman, Moshood Salvador, are now in the APC ready to work for Buhari’s re-election. Even Chief Bode George, though still in the PDP and openly supporting Atiku, is on a self-imposed political holiday, leaving the party without a known leader in the state.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    OYO STATE

     

    APC won the presidential election in Oyo during the last presidential poll. APC scored 528, 620 while PDP got 303, 376. The state used to be the stronghold of the opposition PDP until recently. But today, majority of those chieftains who made the party tick in the state have jumped ship or gone into political oblivion, leaving the party in limbo.

    The likes of former governors Rashidi Ladoja and Adebayo Alao-Akala are no longer with the party. While Ladoja now leads the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) in the state, Alao-Akala is the gubernatorial candidate of the Action Democratic Party (ADP). Both leaders have also lost some of their chieftains to the ruling APC in recent times, especially Alao-Akala, who joined the APC briefly after dumping the PDP.

    Other erstwhile PDP top guns like former Senate Leader, Senator Teslim Folarin and former Secretary to the State Government, Chief Ayodele Adigun are now in the APC working for the success of its presidential candidate. Observers of the politics of the state say PDP in Oyo State is today a ghost of its glorious past and cannot put up any serious challenge to the victory of President Buhari on Saturday.

     

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    ONDO STATE

     

    In spite of the state not being under the control of the party, the then presidential candidate of the APC, Buhari was declared winner of the presidential election in Ondo State. He polled 299, 889 votes to beat former President Jonathan of the PDP, who got 251, 368 votes, according to results declared by INEC.

    The result came as a surprise to many pundits who had thought the PDP would ride on the popularity of the then governor, Dr. Olusegun Mimiko, to clinch victory.

    The state is still firmly in the political grip of the ruling party under Governor Rotimi Akeredolu. Political observers say the PDP which used to control the state until 2012, is struggling to stay alive even in Akure, the capital.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    OSUN STATE

     

    After giving the impression that it was ready to take over the political leadership of Osun State during the last governorship election in the Southwest state, the opposition PDP appears to be fading away from the political firmament of the state so soon. The party in Osun shocked many people when it almost snatched the governorship seat of the state from the ruling APC last year in a keenly contested election.

    The APC appears to be repositioning itself for new electoral challenges ahead. Governor Oyetola, who took over from Rauf Aregbesola has embarked on a number of fence-mending missions that analysts say are yielding fruits.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    EKITI STATE

     

    In 2015, PDP won the presidential election in Ekiti State. Today, the scenario is totally different. Kayode Fayemi of the APC is governor and the federal government is also under Buhari’s APC.

    The PDP in the state is now divided into two groups led by ex-Governor Ayo Fayose and Senate Minority Leader Abiodun Olujimi. As it stands, the APC appears to have the advantage.

    VERDICT: Buhari

     

    SOUTHEAST ZONE

    ANAMBRA STATE

     

    Although Anambra State is currently governed by an All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) government, a political party whose leader, Governor Willie Obiano currently supports APC presidential candidate, Buhari, we can report that the PDP candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, is better positioned to win in the state during this week’s presidential election.

    Since the death of APGA’s former Presidential candidate, Dim Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu, in 2011, the party had been aligning with the then ruling PDP in most of the presidential elections. So, though APGA has continuously governed the state, it has somehow remained largely a PDP state.

    PDP evidently has a boost because the former governor of the state, Peter Obi, is its vice presidential candidate. It is a fact that in Anambra, Obi is well loved and has incredible grassroots support. This, added to the sentiment that ‘PDP has fielded our own son’ will go a long way in securing a chunk votes for PDP’s Atiku.

    A major snag for PDP in the state, however, is that Governor Obiano, the estranged former political godson of Obi, is backing APC’s Buhari, a move his critics say is primarily to slight Obi. He is closely supported in this assignment by the senator representing Anambra Central Senatorial District, Senator Victor Umeh, also a former political ally of Obi. The governor and the former National Chairman of APGA are some of the forces that will battle Obi and PDP in this coming presidential election. How far they would go remains to be seen.

    It is, however, believed that with APGA’s alliance in Anambra State, APC chieftains like Senator Chris Ngige, the Minister of Labour and Employment will be further empowered to win more votes for APC and Buhari in this week’s presidential election.

    Besides the sentiment that “Obi is our son,” sources confirmed that the former governor enjoys much support from the people because of his achievements when he was governor. He is also known to be highly loved and supported by the Catholic and even Anglican faithful because of his unrivalled personal investment in the church while he was in power and ever since then.

    Besides the Church, Obi, according to sources, will garner massive votes from youths, most of who benefitted immensely from his support during his tenure as governor, when they were still in secondary schools or in the universities.

    Given these realities, it seems difficult to imagine that the Atiku/Obi ticket can lose in Anambra State, where Obi hails from, Obiano’s factor notwithstanding.

    Verdict: Atiku

     

    ENUGU STATE

     

    In Enugu State, Atiku is poised to win in this week’s presidential election, notwithstanding the recent progress made by the APC in the PDP stronghold.

    Since the return of democracy in 1999, Enugu has remained a PDP state. In 2015, for example, PDP garnered 553,003 out of the total 573,173 viable votes cast in that year’s presidential election, leaving the other 13 political parties that contested that election to share the remaining 20,170 votes.

    The PDP, which has power of incumbency and age-long loyalty, has greater chances of winning in the state, not only because of the internal dynamics that still favours it but also because PDP’s Vice Presidential candidate, Peter Obi, from the neighbouring Anambra State, also enjoys wide acceptability in the state.

    Verdict: Atiku

     

    ABIA STATE

     

    Abia State has been another PDP stronghold since 1999. But as we reported earlier, reports of under-performance or near total lack of dividends of democracy there have resulted to outcry from across the state for far reaching change.

    This feeling will ultimately affect the result of the forthcoming presidential election in the state. We gathered that most stakeholders are furious to note that Abia, though an oil-producing state, is today one of the least developed in the country, physical infrastructure wise, a development that has resulted in aggressive agitation for change of leadership. How that change will affect the result of this week’s presidential elections, promises to be intriguing.

    Verdict: Atiku

     

    IMO STATE

     

    Imo is the only Southeast state currently under the leadership of an All Progressives Congress-led government. But following the intricate power struggle amongst its leaders, there is the fear that APC may not take it for granted that it would win the presidential race in the state. Unlike in Abia, where some analysts believe APGA may be persuaded to support either APC or PDP candidate, the political rivalries in Imo may make such a possibility more difficult. As at today, it is not yet certain which of the two leading presidential candidates Senator Ifeanyi Araraume, the APGA governorship candidate and his supporters will support. So, the two candidates, Buhari and Atiku may have to rely on the strength of their political parties and their individual popularities for victory.

    Whatever may be the case, the picture will certainly not be a repeat of 2015 scenario, where, out of the 702,964 valid votes, PDP, with the cooperation of APGA, garnered 559,185 votes, leaving only 133,253 votes for APC which eventually took the governorship election.

    This time, APC and PDP will have to fight hard to win the presidential election, but latest intrigues and inability of APC current leaders in the state to reconcile with Governor Okorocha, may neutralize incumbency factor, which would have worked in its favour. .

    Verdict: Atiku

     

    EBONYI STATE

     

    Ebonyi State has remained a PDP state since 1999 and there is no definitive factor that suggests there would be a change in this year’s presidential election. Of the 363,888 valid votes cast in the state in 2015, PDP, in collaboration with APGA, harvested a whopping 323,653 votes, leaving only 19,518 for APC, which came second.

    Observers said since Dave Umahi, the governorship candidate of PDP, cannot openly work against his party during the presidential election; his personal reverence for Buhari may not translate into significant votes.

    Verdict: Atiku

     

    SOUTH-SOUTH ZONE

    BAYELSA STATE

     

    Since 1999, Bayelsa has remained a PDP state. It produced the last president, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan and still boasts of PDP faithful at the grassroots.

    Out of the 367,067 valid votes cast in the state in 2015, PDP got 361,209 votes, leaving only 5,194 votes for APC, which came second.

    However, so much has happened in the state politically since then. For example, the competition during the January 9, 2016 governorship bye election, which followed the inconclusive substantive election held on December 5, 2015, confirmed the growing influence of APC in the state.

    At the end of the hot contest however, the incumbent governor and the candidate of PDP, Seriake Dickson, emerged the winner. Dickson polled 134,998 votes to defeat Timipre Sylva, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress who scored 86,852 votes.

    Also, the ruling PDP has been battling with some internal disagreements that have threatened its fortunes in this week’s presidential election. One of the issues that threatened the unity of the party in the state was the automatic return ticket ripples. Late last year for example, some concerned stakeholders of the party in the state had to call on the National Chairman of the party, Uche Secondus, to intervene in the internal crisis rocking the party to protect its chances in the 2019 elections. One of the groups, Bayelsa State PDP Stakeholders Forum (BSPSF), particularly made the appeal in a statement signed by its Chairman, Chief George Amaibi, in Yenagoa.

    This week, PDP’s candidate, Atiku, will depend on the leadership of Governor Dickson, and former President Goodluck Jonathan whose influence still looms high in this region.

    The APC candidate, President Buhari, will depend on the diligence of the leader of the party in the state and former governor, Chief Timipre Sylva, and of course on the Minister of State for Agriculture and Rural Development, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri.

    Verdict: Atiku

     

    RIVERS STATE

     

    In this week’s presidential election, Rivers is one of the states observers will take special interest in. This is because of the complexities that now define the politics of the oil-rich South-south state.

    Rivers, which started out in 1999 as a PDP state, became a major APC state under the then governor, Rotimi Amaechi, who governed it for eight years. However, Amaechi’s erstwhile political son, Nyesom Wike’s emergence as the state governor, on the ticket of PDP, not only returned the state to PDP but marked the beginning of an intriguing political rivalry that has held the breathe of Nigerians.

    Because Amaechi, the current Minister of Transportation, is also the Director-General of Muhammadu Buhari’s Presidential Re-election Campaign, the expectation is high that he ought to ensure APC’s victory in the state during the presidential election. Both because of the high offices he currently occupies and the fact that it has become a personal battle between him and his former ally, it is certain that Amaechi will put in all he has to deliver Rivers to Buhari.The same pressure is on Wike to deliver Rivers to PDP.

    As it stands however, PDP still remains set to claim the state once again. of the 1,565,461 valid votes cast in the state in 2015 Presidential election, PDP garnered 1,487,075 votes while APC got 69,238 votes to come second. It remains to be seen if the figures can change significantly in the coming election even as Amaechi and Wike continue their ongoing epic political rivalry.

    Verdict: Atiku

     

    DELTA STATE

     

    Delta has also remained a PDP state since 1999. Given that the party has continued to grow under the leadership of Governor Arthur Ifeanyi Okowa, there is likelihood that it would still win this year’s presidential election.

    Of the 1,267,773 valid votes cast in the state during the 2015 presidential election, PDP got 1,211,405 votes, while APC got 48,910 votes. Looking at this figure, one would ordinarily write off any party contesting with the ruling party, PDP, in Delta.

    But today, so much has happened in the politics of the state, especially within the opposition APC. For example, the defection of the former governor of the state, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan, to APC last year is considered a major plus for the party.

    But informed observers wonder if such gains are enough to defeat PDP leadership in the state and win votes for Buhari? In all, PDP, which enjoys incumbency advantage, is still popular enough to win the presidential election in the state.

    Verdict: Atiku

     

    EDO STATE

     

    President Muhammadu Buhari will easily garner the majority of votes in Edo state given the popularity of his party, the ruling All Progressives Congress across the state. The APC’s political hold on the state, from the days of former Governor Adams Oshiomhole, who is now its National Chairman, supported by the rave reviews currently being enjoyed by Governor Godwin Obaseki, should work in the party’s favour.

    Before the 2015 general elections, the PDP could boast of pockets of strongholds in the Southern Senatorial District of the state, but all that faded with the defeat of the party by APC that year. The death of PDP strongman and former political leader of the state, Chief Tony Anenih, late last year, may have completed the demystification of PDP in a state it controlled for nearly 12 years before Oshiomhole took over.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    AKWA IBOM STATE

     

    In the opinion of political pundits, Akwa Ibom State, the nation’s biggest oil producer, has made a right about turn politically, moving away from the PDP, which has ruled the state since 1999, to become an unmistakable APC enclave. A number of factors are responsible for the shift in political colouration in the oil-rich state.

    Gale of Defections: In the last three and half years, the ruling PDP in the state has suffered unrelenting gale of defections. The state started out in 2015 with three PDP senators; now it has one, two of them having defected to the APC in the last one and a half years, the last senator to defect being Godswill Akpabio, former governor of the state and former Minority Leader in the Senate. Many house members, political leaders and ordinary rank and file members of the party have moved over to the APC. Last week, the entire serving local council members in Essien Udim Local Government Area decamped to the APC. Essien Udim is the home council area of Senator Akpabio.

    The stage is thus set for a keen contest, a local derby of sorts, in the district. Pundits see a 50-50 split for the two parties in the district.

     

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    CROSS RIVER STATE

     

    In Cross River State, the PDP still looks good to repeat its 2015 landslide victory in the state in spite of some improvement in the visibility of the opposition APC after the last general election. Governor Ben Ayade and his predecessor, Liyel Imoke, appear to still have their firm grips on the politics of the state. The harmonious relationship between the duo, in spite of insinuations that they have fallen apart, helped the ruling PDP to wax stronger after the last election. Across the state, the governor is also adjudged as having done well. So, PDP looks good to get the votes to prevail on February 16.

    Verdict: Atiku

  • Oil price slump… Return of the tempest

    After surging to over $80 per barrel, oil prices have begun to plummet. As at the close of the year, the price of the global benchmark, Brent, was below $52 per barrel. Other crude grades have gone below $50 per barrel. The dwindling price sends adverse signals to oil producing nations, especially those economies that depend on oil revenues for survival, such as Nigeria. EMEKA UGWUANYI examines the underlying factors determining the current oil price and its impact on the economy.

    Volatile market conditions are back in the global oil and gas industry, with prices below $50 per barrel. Brent, the global benchmark crude, traded at $51.60 per barrel while other crude grades were below $50 per barrel. With the falling prices, countries, such as Nigeria, may not be able to implement their budgets.

    Some economists and industry operators expressed concern that the way oil price is falling, implementation of Nigeria’s 2019 budget may be difficult. To  Adetunji Adepeju and Phil Aragbada, Nigeria’s woes are compounded by the reduction of its OPEC production quota. Some industry players described the oil price slump as an economic tempest for Nigeria as most of the 2019 budget projections will not be realizable should oil price continues to fall.

    Adepeju said: “The unstable price of crude in the international market is a major factor in the implementation of the 2019 budget. “We should also bear in mind that OPEC has reduced the production quota of crude oil. We will not be able to meet the target of 2.3 barrels per day (bpd) even though the production level has been about 1.9 bpd due to the activities of the Niger Delta militants. This has caused instability and unless our refineries start working, we will not make some gains. Also, the burden on dollars for importing refined petroleum products will be less if we locally produce what we consume.” He also expressed concern that nothing much could be achieved in terms of capital projects, given that more than 70 per cent of the budget goes to recurrent expenditure.

    “The fact that about 52 per cent of the recurrent expenditure goes to salaries and emoluments is not a good omen for the next fiscal year. What should have been done instead is that our capital expenditure should be more than the recurrent expenditure or at most the two should be at par. It is good that the capital expenditure is focused on developing transportation, power and housing. If these are done and fully implemented as planned in the budget, it will be a good foundation for development in future.”For Aragbada, “to reposition the nation’s economy requires a lot of sacrifice from all Nigerians. Nigerians would have to suffer a while to enjoy the gains later. “The 2019 appropriation bill is an ambitious one not a budget of hope. If you read the details, it was based on $60 per barrel. The fall in the price of crude and production quota would negatively affect the budget implementation. We have a combination of two tragedies, reduction in oil price and oil production quota and both situations will affect the implementation of the budget.”

    He, however, said oil subsidy policy is politically expedient but not economically, adding that the policy favoured mainly the elite. He said it is advisable for the nation to borrow to finance infrastructure rather than subsidy. Building infrastructure would help to create employment, boost disposable income and improve the economy. “But when money is borrowed for subsidy, there would be no gain for us economically as a nation, just political satisfaction,” he said.

     

    Oil politics and price direction

     

    The direction of international oil market was majorly determined by the United States. The United States was the world’s greatest oil consumer and importer as well as a major producer, which was buoyed by in recent times by shale oil. But the emergence of China as big economy and oil consumer is gradually taking that glory from the United States. The growing strengths of OPEC members and its partners such as Russia, have substantial impacts on the direction of the oil market, hence the production cut option was able to stop free-fall of oil price in 2016 until now when prices started going down.

    When oil prices climbed above $80 per barrel this year, the U.S. Congress considered “NOPEC Act,” which is No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act.” The proposal to establish the NOPEC Act was necessitated by high gasoline prices, which raised the ire of U.S. politicians. The Congress started to mull “No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act,” which would make OPEC subject to Sherman antitrust law, meaning the U.S. government could sue OPEC for manipulating the oil market. The bill was said to have been around in some form for more than a decade, but previous presidents have opposed it. President Donald Trump has voiced support for the measure in the past, and because of his unpredictable nature, analysts say the odds of it becoming law, while still low, have never been better. Of course, if OPEC announces a production increase in a few days, it could take the steam out of the legislative effort. Currently, the United States is considered the largest oil producer in the world with outputs put at average of 11.6 million barrels per day in November and 11.7 million barrels in December.

    Besides, the developed and oil consuming nations, stockpile reserves when oil prices are low, which creates relief for them during high price era. Also the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that non-OPEC supply could still outgrow demand next year, expanding by 1.5 million barrels per day while demand may only soak up 1.4 million barrels per day of that additional supply. As such, OPEC and partners might be forced to maintain the cuts through the end of the year, which happened.

     

    PetroYuan – the emerging global oil market game-changer

     

    The pricing of oil futures in Chinese Yuan may be one of the major determinants of the direction oil prices will go in future. Currently, its impact may not be well-perceived but certainly it is going to be a game-changer forthe global oil market.

    China is not unaware of its potentials. It has the population, market and technology and it is fully using the elements to her advantage. When it overtook the United States as the world’s biggest oil buyer and consumer, it opened a domestic market to trade futures contracts culminating in realisation of a long-term vision.  The Shanghai International Energy Exchange, an arm of Shanghai Futures Exchange, was established to allow Chinese buyers to lock in oil prices and pay in local currency. Also, foreign traders will be allowed to invest in China’s commodities markets as the exchange is registered in Shanghai’s free trade zone.

    Stefano de Stefano of Kerogen Ventures LLC, Houston, Texas, said China’s plan to push the Petroyuan could trigger the shift of other product payments to the yuan, including metals and mining raw materials. To him, this move by China will have implications on geo-politics, oil market gyrations, and new futures markets especially on the sub-Saharan African energy development.

    Stefano said China with time may take over from the United States as the global leader for oil and gas. He said: “China’s new drive to “make the skies blue again” is recasting its role in energy. China’s economic and currency ambitions are reshaping oil markets. The status quo since 1973 is that oil and gas, other commodities, and black markets are all priced in dollars. Estimates of future pricing are based upon supply, demand and US Federal Policy.

    “However, Yuan-denominated crude oil futures kicked off with a bang, surpassing Brent trading volume. China took the next major step in the challenging the Dollar’s supremacy as global reserve currency and is internationalizing the Yuan. China took the first steps to paying for crude oil imports in its own currency instead of U.S. dollars.  And interestingly, Russia, Angola, Saudi have begun payments in Yuan.” Will Nigeria look at that direction with the increasing bilateral trade relations? He noted that pricing crude futures in Yuan will give China more power over global oil/commodity prices, and will also increase the relative value of the Chinese Yuan as against US dollar and gold.

    According to him, the move will also permit reduction in foreign exposure to US dollar holdings, lead to increased US interest rates, devalued dollar and balance of payments crisis and making Gold become the reference point for oil competitiveness. “The energy downturn, fracking, and China’s financial markets have created a revolution in the oil and gas industries. Chinese Yuan-denominated oil futures could result in higher interest,” Stefano said, noting opportunities for Africa to take advantage of these dislocations that abound.

    He said if oil is only priced in US dollar that means we must only consider global oil supply and demand, US Federal Policy to arrive at oil prices estimates. It also means that Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) must act to ‘minimise oil output to maximise US dollar’ to ensure their US dollar purchasing power is protected over time, he added.

    Another analyst said futures trading would wrest some control over pricing from the main international benchmarks, which are based on dollars. Denominating oil contracts in yuan would promote the use of China’s currency in global trade, one of the country’s key long-term goals. And China would benefit from having a benchmark that reflects the grades of oil that are mostly consumed by local refineries and differ from those underpinning western contracts. He noted that China led the first crude oil benchmark in Asia, which is important because that’s where oil consumption is growing the most. And it will be the first contract priced in Chinese currency, known as the renminbi or yuan. Currently, the main global benchmarks for crude oil are in New York and London — and priced in dollars.

    “For the oil market, it shows how the centre of gravity is shifting to Asia. It means the U.S. is not front and centre in the oil market anymore,” said Matt Piotrowski of Securing America’s Future Energy, a nonprofit focused on U.S. energy security.

    To the immediate past President of NAPE, Dr Andrew Ejayeriese, “Oil being priced in Chinese currency will not have any impact on the global oil prices, they will only do currency equivalence. You can actually price oil in Naira. When you have the dollar value, you can convert to naira. It doesn’t really make any difference. Chinese  do what they do because they are one of the biggest consumer of oil and gas in the world, so rather than go look for dollars to pay you, they pay the equivalent in their currency. Also they export products to all parts of the world and they have a huge population and they are taking advantage of these factors. So it doesn’t change anything if they buy and sell oil in their own currency. Although the Chinese stepped up petro-Yuan transactions in the last two years, it doesn’t change anything because the price of oil will still be competitive. If they (Chinese) decide to buy oil at a cheaper rate because the value of their currency is less than dollar, people will not sell to them, except if they will buy at a higher rate. China is a big economy and they want to maximise value from that. Remember that Nigeria has done a currency swap deal with China basically because a lot of people import from China. To make such imports, the importers have to first change their currencies to dollar and to Chinese currency. So why take that detour, if they can do the exchange directly with Chinese currency and remove that corridor and make the exchange easy.”

     

    Need for increased exploration activities, investment

     

    For the oil and gas industry players, the Federal Government needs to make provision in 2019 budget and subsequent years for offshore and onshore exploration activities to encourage new discoveries. According to them, Nigeria has huge reserves of oil and gas, which ought be exploited and the accruing revenues deployed to develop other sectors of the economy.

    To the former President, Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE), who is also the Managing Director, Degeconek Nigeria Limited, Mr. Abiodun Adesanya, there was noticeable improvement in the revenue generation in 2018 occasioned by better oil price and less disruption in export volumes. “In 2019, we should work harder to sustain and improve on the modest gains of 2018 especially the production and export infrastructures. The Federal Government also needs to conduct a fresh licensing round.”

    Adesanya urged the government to develop modular refineries to reduce importation of refined petroleum products. “The modular refinery concept is a good idea but its implementation will be difficult under the existing structure. How would the modular refineries resolve the challenges of the Niger Delta region and how will they be funded? How can the crude supply be guaranteed, in what currency will the crude be sold to the refineries given that products will be sold in Naira?

    Immediate past Chairman, Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE), Nigeria Council, Mr. Chikezie Nwosu, said: “Establishing fairly comfortable oil price should be of particular interest to the oil and gas industry in 2019 and beyond. He said the current uncertainty in global politics had effects on the global economy and that prediction of market trends was becoming increasingly difficult.”

    According to him, “global political tensions add significant uncertainty to an already challenged oil and gas industry; demand versus supply economics. The tensions between the United States and Iran as well as the Saudi Arabian issues with the killing of the journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, and the withdrawal of Qatar from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The trade tariff skirmishes between China and the USA, BREXIT and the sudden announcement of the total withdrawal of the USA from Syria, all added to the global tensions,” he said.

    Predicating the budget, Nwosu said, will to a large extent depend on oil revenues, adding that an oil price of $60 per barrel seemed a bit optimistic. “A more realistic range will probably be between $40 and $45 per barrel, allowing for windfall receipts if higher, but also providing a hedge against lower oil prices. Oil production from the current data as at September stood between 2.03 million barrels per day and 2.3 million barrels per day, is possible. These projections are achievable, however, provided the 2019 elections are peaceful and the results do not aggravate the Niger Delta and host and impacted communities.

    “It will also be good if all four key component bills of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) are passed by the National Assembly and assented to by the Presidency early enough in the year before mid-year 2019.”

    Nwosu said passage of the bills would bring the needed peace to the host and impacted communities as they become partners in the exploitation of oil and gas resources. According to him, the bill will also restructure the industry and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) to be more effective, with a world class governance structure. He said the bill would also attract the necessary direct investments both local and foreign. “Markets including the oil and gas industry do not like uncertainty and the PIB will go a long way to address the framework for doing business in the Nigerian oil and gas industry,” he said.

    Nwosu said of particular importance was the full implementation of the 7Big Wins initiated by the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr. Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu and supported by the Group Managing Director, NNPC, Dr Maikanti Baru, which addresses many policy challenges in the industry. He said unlocking the huge potential of the gas resources would also help in diversifying and growing the Nigerian economy through its impact on power, agriculture and other industry. He said integrated Oil and Gas Field Development Plans (FDPs) must be emphasised by the NNPC and some urban planning concepts must be encouraged. This, he said, will help leverage synergies of development by the various operators especially in offshore developments, and which will significantly lower unit technical and production costs. He said to encourage investments in exploration, it is important NNPC insists that exploration and appraisal plans are an integral part of all FDPs.

    For the Chairman, Integrated Oil and Gas Limited, Mr. Emmanuel Ihenacho, “In the last 10 years, the demand for refined products had always been on the increase. Iheanacho said building a modular refinery of about 1,000 barrels costs over $1.2 billion. Building a modular refinery is not easy, apart from citing your refinery beside the sea, one can as well site it near a marginal oil field. Finance is the major reasons why most investors in the modular refineries abandoned it. No bank is ready to give loan to any investor in modular refineries that is why it is just only two out of 40 investors given licences were able to build. Government should engage the banks to provide the finance needed for building modular refineries,” he said.

    In his views of Mr. Muda Yusuf, the Director-General, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, “the Federal Government needs to review its policy on refined products to encourage investors into the sector. It is a pity that after many years of oil discovery, the country is still importing its refined products for consumption. As long as we have the oil and gas sector linked to the government, private investors will continue to evade the sector.” He urged the government to overhaul the sector to encourage private investors to come in.

    A former Chairman, Nigerian Council of Society of Petroleum Engineers, Dr Saka Matemilola, also urged the NNPC to repair the existing refineries to improve its production. Matemilola also urged Department of Petroleum Resources not to revoke the licences of investors who were unable to build modular refineries. According to him, withdrawing the licences will not solve the problems facing the sector. He said there was need to work with the licences owners to address the issue of sourcing for finance from the banks to build the refineries.

    Kachikwu had said three out of the 40 planned modular refineries would come on stream by end of 2019. “Out of the 40 licences issued, only 10 have shown progress by submitting their programmes and putting something on the ground. By end of 2019, we are assured that three private modular refineries would come on stream,” he said.

     

  • for governorship campaigns(1)

    Zamfara: PDP, others set to capitalise on APC’s woes

    ORDINARILY, the 2019 governorship election in Zamfara State would have been a stroll in the park for the All Progressives Congress (APC). But the disagreement between Governor Abdulaziz Yari and Senator Kabiru Marafa appears to have robbed the party the opportunity of producing a successor to occupy the seat. At the close of nominations, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared that the party was ineligible to field candidates for governorship, National Assembly and the state House of Assembly elections in Zamfara State because there were no primaries.

    The genesis of the crisis is the supremacy battle between governor Yari and Marafa over the governorship ticket. The governor preferred the Commissioner for Finance, Mukhtar Idris, to succeed him instead of Marafa who has been eyeing the job. The commission had informed the ruling APC in a leaked memo that it would not be allowed to field candidates for elective positions in the state in the 2019 general elections; a position it has stood by. The commission’s acting secretary, Okechukwe Ndeche, had in a letter to the APC, said the party was barred from fielding candidates for governorship, National Assembly and the state assembly elections, because the ruling party failed to comply with sections 87 and 31 of the Electoral Act of 2010. Going by the Electoral Act, parties were expected to comply with the timetable and schedule of the INEC, which says that the conduct of primaries must be held between August 18 and October 7.

    The commission said reports from its Zamfara office indicated that no primaries were conducted in Zamfara State, notwithstanding that its officials were fully mobilised and deployed. The APC National Chairman, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, later responded in a statement that the party had already arrived at a consensus before the deadline. But INEC has refused to budge. Oshiomhole says the party will approach the court to compel INEC to allow the ruling party to field candidates in next year’s general elections. He said: “With all due respect, INEC cannot award a state to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) or any other political party. It has to be the decision of the people of Zamfara or any other people in any other state that is going to participate in any of the elections.

    “I believe the court will look at the law and the rules, and as far as the legal advice we have gotten is concerned, we believe we are on good grounds. We want to see INEC as an impartial arbiter, and I trust that they will do their very best to maintain their name as an impartial arbiter.” But the expected legal action might be a long wait after all, because legal processes are often not as speedy as expected. This development is expected to mar the campaign of the APC in Zamfara and other political parties are likely to cash in on the situation. The parties are said to be either forming alliances or reaching out to the electorate to push forward their manifestoes for an alternative government in the state. For the PDP, the situation presents a perfect opportunity for the party to take over the state. A former chairman of the party, Senator Hassan Mohammed Gusau, said the party was anchoring its mobilisation on the insecurity situation that had bedeviled the state to woo the electorate to its side. Gusau said the ruling party had approached the PDP to offer them their governorship ticket, but they declined because “this is a no-goarea”.

    He, however, said they were into negotiations with the APC and other political parties, but their agreement depends on acceptable conditions. Stormy campaigns loom in Kaduna THAT the governorship election campaigns in Kaduna State will be stormy is to put the matter lightly, Although the primary elections of the various political parties, especialiy those of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the major opposition, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) were rancour-free, the issue however coming up ahead of kick-off are pointers to a very stormy campaign. As for the the ruling party, the war within is apparently over with the defections of key rivals of Governor Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai, like Senator Suleiman Othman Hunkuyi representing Kaduna North in the National Asssembly, and his counterparts from Kaduna Central, Senator Shehu Sani, as well as other actors who fought the governor under the auspices of APC-Akida and the restoration group, led by Alhaji Tijjani Ramalan and Dr. Hakeem Baba-Ahmed respectively.

    The eventual exit of the key party men on one hand indicated poor managment of internal crisis on the part of APC. But on the other hand, it is an indication that El-Rufai has control of the party. This gave the governor the advantage of picking the party’s gubernatorial ticket unchallenged, and eventually made the APC’s gubernatorial primary totally free of any form of rancour. The PDP on the other hand has not been that lucky, as about 11 gladiators aspired to be the party’s flagbearer. Despite that, some aspirants stepped down on the eve of the party’s primary due to a consensus arrangement. The consensus agreement allegedly arrived at is now tearing the party apart as one of the aspirants, Dr. Muhammad Sani Bello, has now dumped the PDP for the ruling party. Dr. Bello, at a press conference to announce his exit from the PDP, alleged that, the party had failed to document their consensus agreements; a situation he described as an attempt to shortchange him and other aspirants who went into such agreement. He also hinted that other members of the PDP, including aspirants, will also be dumping the PDP before the general elections. Not only Bello’s exit and those of others who are yet to leave will make the campaigns stormy.

    The fact that a former PDP bigwig, aspirant and major finacier in person of Dr. Muhammad Sani Bello has joined the league of people doubting the genuiness of the PDP candidate, Hon. Isha Ashiri’s secondary school certificate is an indication that political war looms. With Bello now with Governor El-Rufai, the APC is likely to make political capital out of the Ashiru’s certificate saga. Already, the former PDP aspirant during the last Saturday’s press conference, has stated categorically that PDP has no chance of winning the election. According to him, “even if the PDP wins the governorship election in Kaduna State, God forbid, the court will nullify the election if any of the parties or candidates challenges it. This is because the credentials of the PDP candidate is faulty. “The WAEC certificate that he presented does not carry his name. His name is Isah Muhammad Ashiru and the certificate reads Muhammad Ashiru. Aside that, in the same WAEC result, he has only two credits in Islamic studies and Economics. Is that the result he used to secure admission into Kaduna Polytechnic and later Bayero University Kano? “So, something is wrong somewhere.” However, the PDP candidate who had been struggling in the past few weeks to defend himself against the certificate saga, has threatened legal action against Dr. Sani Bello if he fails to retract what he (Ashiru) described as defamation of his character.

    The PDP on the other hand is well prepared to decampaign Governor El-Rufai over many issues, especially the latest selection by the Governor of his fellow Muslim, Dr. Hadiza Balarabe as running mate. El- Rufai’s explanation over how he arrived at the choice of Hadiza Balarabe not withstanding, the PDP will definitely use that to canvass for support amongst the non-Muslim population in the state. However, the Kaduna electorate will at the end of the day determine who governs them, irrespective of the stormy campaigns that the state may witness. Akwa Ibom AkwaI bom pulses in real time. The fabled ‘Land of Promise’ quivers with the high jinks of frantic aspirants as the executive governor of the state, Emmanuel Udom, goes for broke, in an epic quest to retain his seat, at the 2019 gubernatorial elections.

    His major rival, Nsima Ekere, Managing Director of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) and governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), is pulling all the stops to unmoor him from his luxuriant couch in the Akwa Ibom State House. But as Ekere gets set to match Udom wit for wit, spunk for spunk, diatribe against diatribe, pundits aver that the battle for the state’s most coveted political office is hardly between the duo. Hide original message Random permutations contend that the contest is between the incumbent governor and his estranged godfather, Senator Godswill Akpabio, who recently dumped the PDP, to pitch his tent with the ruling party, APC. For Udom and Akpabio, the dissembling began in common hours. The colourful fabric of their friendship finally gave to wear and tear of cut-throat politics and unforgiving lust; either man allegedly sought to tame and outclass the other in a fierce struggle for Akwa Ibom’s jugular. Prior to their estrangement, the public had been fed with news of a joyous relationship between godfather and godson, until the Yuletide, when Akpabio accused the governor publicly of neglecting his area, the Akwa Ibom North-West Senatorial District. At a soiree organised for PDP chieftains in his district, Akpabio said it was better to inform the governor that “2018 is less than one year to the election, all is not well…Don’t allow anybody to deceive you that all is well.”

  • How Aregbesola will be remembered

    OGBENI RAUF AREGBESOLA, outgoing governor of Osun State, has demonstrated that human beings can make impact in any given society, not necessarily because of wealth but because of ideas and it has since been said that ideas rule the world. Aregbesola has something in common with Fidel Castro, the late leader of Cuba. Castro was criticised by the West, but at the end of the day, Cuba was the only country in the Americas with no single record of child malnourishment; declared an “International Paradise” by UNICEF, the country has the lowest child death rate in the two continents of America.  The country boasts some of the best human development indices in the world, particularly in education and health. It is not an exaggeration that what Castro did in Cuba, Aregbesola has done the same in the Osun State.

    A song writer penned this song: “We shall be remembered, we shall be remembered by what we have done”. One of the founding fathers of Newswatch magazine, Ray Epku, recently asked in his article in The Guardian, if Aregbsola will be remembered by his state. We know that history is written by a victor. Every public office holder starts writing his story from the moment he is elected. Aregbesola will certainly be remembered for his numerous unforgettable good deeds. The philosopher states: “The best way to live is to live in the present and not attempt to shape the future.”

    There are many people like Ekpu living in Osun, and others outside the state who might have heard about Aregbesola and possibly out of curiosity, eager to find out what he has done the last eight years. It is obvious that a leader must be represented by what he stands for either for good or for evil. As far as the history of the tenure of the outgoing governor is concerned, he will surely be remembered for his several unforgettable good deeds. A one-time PDP gubernatorial candidate in the state once stated that the state has nothing to show as an achievement for the past six years. Just as it is often said that when lies is allowed to prevail for long it might be taken for the truth. There were three groups of men in the state who nursed the defeat they suffered as a result of Aregbesola’s victory at the polls. The first group was those who held on to power due to electoral manipulation for three and a half years before they were sacked by the Court of Appeal. Some have since joined the APC. The second group were the men that were counting on the time that the gubernatorial election will come to their zones, but the court verdict blew off their chance. This second group are much more desperate. One of them vowed in 2014 that he must win the election at all costs, failure which he was ready to die. He tried but failed but has since refused to die. The third group consists of political hangers-on.  They benefit from the power that be. The change of power has since rendered them beggars and haters of Aregbsola’s administration.

    Initially, they falsely alleged that the incumbent governor suffered from cancer, but when that kite failed to fly, they took to criticising him that he was doing nothing in the state. Later when Aregbesola turned the whole state to one great construction site, they were dumbfounded and started saying that the state’s indebtedness was beyond redemption. So far, there is no local government council area that has not seen the impact of Aregbesola’s administration. The six-point integral action plan: Banish Poverty, Banish Hunger, Banish Unemployment, Restore Healthy living, Promote Functional Education, and Enhance Communal Peace and Progress, continue as the guiding principles till date.

    Will Aregbesola be remembered?  Yes, he would be remembered as the man whose mandate was stolen by the then incumbent but fought a legal battle for three and half years to regain it, to the extent that the then Federal Government was much more concerned  that the Electoral Law  was amended to ensure that future electoral litigation does not exceed six months.

    Aregbesola would be remembered as the first governor in Nigeria that employed 20,000 youths under the Osun Youths Employment Scheme (OYES) within his first 100 days in office. If his critics are insisting that the man has done nothing in the past eight years in office, the youth in their various wards and local government areas will stand to counter their negative comments that they were the beneficiaries of Aregbesola’s empowerment policies. Their parents and relations will speak to the electorate that they have become employers of labour through the OYES scheme.

    About 40 of the former beneficiaries of the scheme will mobilise their households that they became landlords through the OYES scheme, and that if the scheme has not been on the ground they might still be wandering about seeking for jobs that are not available. Just few weeks ago, another batch of the OYES scheme has commenced the service despite the lean purse of the state.

    If political opponents fail to see what the man Aregbesola has done in the state for the past eight years, the students that were formerly learning in poultry sheds will celebrate the icon and modern innovator of Opon Imo, a learning device that contains over 64 text books, past questions and answers in WAEC, NECO and JAMB examinations, s device that was acknowledged by UNESCO and even WAEC, an educational device that made Osun and the helmsman to receive several awards across the globe.

    The over 20 newly-constructed High Schools, 22 elementary schools are enough cynosure for those with eyes, irrespective of tribes, colour or religion. It is no more news that President Muhammadu Buhari was dumb-founded as to how the governor was able to fund such facilities despite the economic downturn.

    Apart from the modern facilities that were provided in these new schools, the schools were given befitting buses to transport students to and from schools.

    We may forget that the man provides free school uniforms for over 75,000 students across the state, but would the parents and pupils forget? But in case they do, in the future when it shall be asked who introduced the same uniforms for all the pupils in primary and secondary schools, whose name would they mention?

    Free meals are daily being served across the state, to the extent that the state experienced geometrical increase in school enrolment in the primary schools above any other state in Nigeria. The free meals scheme has also provided markets for both farmers and poultry farmers beyond the state. The eggs consumption by the pupils went beyond the supply of the local farmers, to the extent that farmers in Kwara State now sell for the state cooks.

    As if that was all the state needs to serve as a model to the Federal Government who has since adopted the free schools meal.

    The United Kingdom was highly impressed by the school meal programme that the governor was invited to address the UK parliament over it. On the introduction of free schools meal in UK, each parent was projected to save about £50,000 annually. A prophet, they say, has no honour except in his own home; while our people fail to see that healthy and well-fed children will learn better and perform excellently well, a foreign country saw the importance.

    The primary school enrolment rose from 40% to 80% in 2014, the highest in Nigeria.

    The 2017 West African Examination Council (WAEC) was the best so far in the history of the state as the students’ results rose from 49.5% to 70%.

    May be those who claim the man cannot be remembered  for anything are always  flying to and from the state, otherwise  they are likely to have passed through the trumpet bridge that is under construction  at Gbongan. They are likely to have been to Orileowu or Osogbo, Ilesa, Ikirun Ile-Ife, but in case they have not, let them ask from anybody from any of the 30 local government areas and the newly established developmental areas  if they have experienced any road construction, the answer would likely  be positive.

    The health sector and those that have been saved due to the nearness of hospitals and maternity centres to them would remember that a man was in charge of the state for eight years. The accident victims that were saved through the prompt response of the O’ Ambulances will remember that Aregbesola  saved them from death. The REHAB, the agency that picks and rehabilitates the mentally-challenged people across the state, will forever be grateful for the man that rescued, rehabilitated and gave them a new life.

     

    On security, the state has never had it so good as it is today under the leadership of Aregbesola. Prior to his coming, armed robbers were rattling communities so terribly that banks in Ejigbo, Ikirun and other places had to be closed down. This government invested heavily both in men and security gadgets, including armoured vehicles. Aregbesola is leaving the state as one of the safest in Nigeria.

     

    • Obaditan is a media aide to the outgoing Osun governor
  • Release Basic Health Care Provision Fund to save lives, experts tell Buhari

    THE failure of the Federal Government to release the Basic Health Care Provision Fund (BHCPF) of the National Health Act has continued to generate concerns amongst the citizens.

    The Senior Technical Adviser, Development Research and Project Center (DRPC) Dr. Emmanuel Abanida said this, lamenting that the non release of the fund which was in 2018 budget was delicate and dangerous given its importance to health care delivery in the country.

    He said this in Abuja at a Strategy Session on advocacy for the implementation of BHCPF organised by Engaged Citizens, Partnership to Engage, Reform and Learn, EC-PERL, a programme of the Department for International Development (DFID).

    The strategy session which was organised by EC-PERL in collaboration with Health Sector Reform Coalition, (HSRC) was attended by stakeholders including health experts, civil society health advocacy groups and journalists.

    Read also: Boko Haram attacks on troops: Buhari summons service chiefs

    Abanida said it was a source of concern that the fund which was captured in the 2018 budget was not released less than 40 days to the end of the year and that this was a dangerous indication for provision of health care services for the citizens.

    Abanida urged President Muhammadu Buhari to ensure the release of the fund immediately to save lives of the indigent citizens who need access to health care services.

    Speaking further, Abanida said failure to release the money was having a negative effect on health care delivery in the country, especially in the rural areas as it could have been handy in the revitalisation of primary health care centres. The fund is expected to help reduce out of pocket spending on health care through the National Health Insurance Scheme.

    “As we move to the end of the year, if we do not get this money, obviously, when they are doing the 2019 budget they will put zero application to 2018,” he said.

  • Handshake across history?

    Nobel laureate Prof Wole Soyinka has joined calls on the government to obey court orders. In a paper he presented at an event in Lagos, he said democracy would thrive where the rule of law is upheld.

    Let us begin with some collective introspection. I have become increasingly convinced that, between leadership and the led, there is only a very thin dividing line, often nearly indistinguishable. There is no question in my mind that, most often, the so-called led are their own worst enemies, even to the point of self-betrayal and treachery to their own existence. It is therefore necessary to caution that when it comes to handshakes, a strong dose of  discrimination is also to be recommended. There is no point attempting to shake hands with an amputee who had willingly thrust out both arms to embrace a machette-wielding lunatic. You ask him, why did you do such a thing? He replies, pained: But he knows we are from the same village.

    Those who organized this encounter hopefully bear that cautionary tale in mind, side by side with their motivations lodged in optimism. The initiative itself, which is a progression from the earlier HANDS ACROSS THE NIGER, indicates that they have taken the pulse of the nation and come to the conclusion that the nation is a sick patient, very sick, and in dire need of healing. The theme in full speaks for itself, implicitly throws out a challenge for constructive thinking to a chronically improvident nation. I have not physically met any of the organizers, but I do know that, very active among them are ‘off-shore’ Nigerians – that is, domiciled outside their homeland, some with their families, earning their livelihood externally, enjoying occupational fulfillment, self-sufficient, without any obligation to their original homeland, and without owing any moral duty to that homeland – except by choice. In other words, like hundreds of thousands, even millions of Nigerians abroad, they are in a position to forget totally that nation space called Nigeria. Nevertheless, that entity exerts a pull on them, and a need to assure themselves of the survival of that portion of a natural entitlement that comes with birth. I see them mulling over the totality of that entitlement day after day, wondering if they can salvage something from, or contribute something to, what they see as an expanse of chronic wastage.

    Perhaps they have also come to accept, and move to fulfill, a need for an anchor in some other place than their current abode, some other place that they can decidedly call theirs, so that if, at any time, they are made to feel, for whatever reason, merely tolerated, marginalized, subjected to abuse, denigration, collectively, even nationally or racially insulted, they can at least look outward and say, without any need to apologize for that alternative, that they have a place that will not turn them back, and on which they will not turn their backs when, on arrival, the condition they encounter provokes instant recoil, and their instinctive response is to do a one hundred and eighty degree turn screaming: Take me back. Anything is better than this!

    I wish to congratulate them – and their onshore partners – on the initiative. Even if the foregoing does not apply to them specifically, they are still performing the role of protagonists for such others I meet constantly in all corners of the world – I repeat, virtually any corner of the world – a massive capital of human talent, of which the home ground equally boasts. They have been moved to act both intuitively and by analytical knowledge. I imagine that they have become progressively conscious of the fact that, outside a geographical space called Nigeria, they are merely birds of passage, however deeply rooted in their new living, working and leisure environment. They understand that every nation ultimately has – and may exercise – the right to decide who are their nationals by whatever parameters, and that such nations can repeal even the very rights that were conceded to them generations before, and for any reason that did not exist when they first set foot on foreign soil.

    They do not even need to cite lessons from a Buddhist nation like Myanmar, so recently rescued from a brutal, dictatorial regime, embarked on a long denied democratic journey, which has taken to brutalizing its long entrenched minority moslem population  – the Rohingya – who have known no other home but Myanmar. Yet, in this very present, the year of the 70th Anniversary of Fundamental Human Rights, that nation has set in motion the process of de-naturalizing the Rohingya after a sustained spell of ethnic cleansing that earned condemnation around the world and the United Nations. A government headed by the Simon Bolivar and Nobel Prize for Peace winner, Aung San Suu Kyi, former graduate of that famous British institution – the School of African and Oriental Studies, a prisoner of conscience – albeit under home arrest  – for over fifteen years – has now embarked on the process of expelling – or, if you prefer – repatriating – the Rohingya from the only home they had ever known. That government recently adopted the ploy of offering inducements to ensure that they are seen by the world to be leaving of their own accord.

    The conveners of this gathering are kindred spirits to the perceptive immigrants of the state of Israeli nation who invested in the insurance policy of ‘home security’, even before Israel reversed her ‘welcome home’ immigration policy, and embarked on a project of deportation, beginning with preventing families from joining their already naturalized fellow Jews, the Black Falasha. That government has also resorted to the language of ‘voluntary self-repatriation’, backed by monetary inducements. In the chilling words of that Mafia character, Don Corleone, The Godfather of cinematic fame, they are being made ‘an offer they cannot refuse’ – take the cash, or be forcibly ejected!

    I have concluded that we are speaking of a sizeable population of Nigerians, exercised by their own intelligence and sense of personal and racial dignity – with the national under question  – who survey the wave of extreme nationalism  sweeping over a Europe of the sea of Enlightenment, and sliding into fascistic resuscitation. They have seen visible cracks in the reconstructive, post-Second World War opening out that brought a liberal European Union into being. I cannot conceive of any motivating factor less than a holistic, globally contextual self-seizure – let that expression serve us for now – a self-seizure in the originators of this conference . I refer to an awareness of self that is nurtured within the virtues of dignity, volition and the existential sense of security of belonging somewhere, even if located elsewhere. It is that branch of human sensibilities that does not wait to be nudged into pre-emptive motions by ominous signs, such as – shall we say? – a flag-bearer of the liberal tendency –  pursuing the actualization of electoral promises that are based on exclusion. With new elections in sight, that democratic ultra-nationalist recently moved to the ultimate destination: the right of birth on American soil no longer brings automatic entitlement to an American passport. These conveners chose not to wait until that ideologue, proceeding from the right of revocation of the almighty meal ticket known as the Green Card, slid in the final building block in the nationalist edifice – in character, as a Leader sworn to Make Great Again!

    And so, it is indeed invigorating to discern that the promoters of this gathering are anything but mental mendicants clinging to an unwilling embrace, barely tolerated, despised and openly repudiated by, their hosts, the frenetic children of Donald Trump, desperate to reassure Papa Don of their undying fealty. There is deep satisfaction in responding to a different order of the Nigerian family, the breed of citizens of anywhere whom we can extol without hesitation as sincerely engaged humanity, and to whom one feels an obligation to respond, no matter the prospects of fulfillment for their lofty projections. I meet them all the time, they are harbingers of hope. They help to resuscitate the flagging energies that time brings on us all, sooner or later.

    Fortunately – there is also some good news, and to such good news we shall immediately proceed.  Almost as if in response to the literal appeal of the theme of this meeting, our weekend journals were full of reports of a resumption of civic concern by CAN – the Christian association of Nigeria – calling on the President of this nation to obey the orders of the court and release those detainees who are forcibly held by this government – notably the former director of the State Security Service, and the Moslem Shiite leader, El Zakzaky and his wife. It is a principle that, in any society governed by law, the Executive does not pick and choose which judgement he obeys and which not. Not for nothing do we encounter the cry – Justice all or – Justice None! Other branches of Civil Society, NGOs and Civil Rights organizations have repeatedly made the same calls in the past – it is a matter of both law and conscience. It is therefore time overdue that President Buhari comes to an understanding that one of the honoured titles he bears is – First Citizen. This translates, quite simply that he is primarily a citizen like any other among the nation’s millions of humanity. Being First means, additionally, that he is a product of their will and subject to the agencies for the actualization of that collective will, its custodian and protector of its enabling institutions – in this case – Justice! His oath of office affirms no less.

    If I may go back a little in history, I shall refer Buhari attention to the plight of one Abdurahman Shugaba, a political opponent of the civilian government of President Shehu Shagari. That government constituted a one-man tribunal that determined that Shugaba was a foreigner. He was promptly deported by the government and turned into a stateless wanderer. The same conviction of Hands Across the Nation acted in near unison, pursued his case through the law courts until justice was done at the Apex, the Supreme Court, and Shugaba retrieved his identity as a Nigerian citizen. He was awarded damages for the injustice. The spearheading of that campaign from beginning to end was from the South – agitations, legal recourse, political pressure, civil society  etc. etc.  By now, this nation is tired of half-a-loaf democracy and selectivity in rule of law. The continued detention of El Zakzaky is especially grotesque, considering that his people sustained the largest single casualty that any religious movement has ever sustained in any confrontation in this nation since Independence. It remains a gross blemish on the government, but especially on the nation herself. The world has moved beyond one-man tribunals to which this pesident, Buhari has even, in this case, appointed himself.

    Many people still believe that Liberty is a luxury and/or a concession. They are pathetically wrong. It is a fundamental human right and, in this 70th year of the inauguration of that document, known and adopted by virtually all the nations of the world as the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, it is simply unacceptable that we find ourselves classed as a nation without respect for the fundamental human rights of her citizens, and contempt for our legal structures. The pursuit of justice by CAN augurs well for the nation. Its timing deepens the inscription of consequences, the proverbial writing on the wall of insensate power.

    A handshake s expressed in so many forms, as we see – even the physical act itself is executed in through a number of motions, gestures – including the rubbing of noses in some cultures. In other climes, as our expatriate organizers know, it sometimes comes in the form known as the hi-Five, a gesture of special recognition, a rite of group solidarity. What matters is the intent behind, and within the gesture, or ritual. For instance, a handshake ’seals a deal’ – as the saying goes, also serves to build a bridge across negative memories, and so on. Let us keep all that in mind, as we also observe that there are few more humiliating and disorientating gestures than the spurning of the outstretched hand. The anticipating arm is then retracted in embarrassment, and hurt. It is a moment that festers long after the event, sometimes for the rest of one’s life. And I stress this reminder of precedents, not to reduce the value of this initiative or its pioneering spirit, but to insist that hands have reached out again and again, thrust from one part of the nation or another, only to encounter from others, a rebuff whose cumulative effects remain with us till today.

    But not always, and examples are always around to instruct us. Here for instance, is a lesson that imparts not only statesmanship, but evidence of the power of faith. I am notorious for my private convictions, which are not too dissimilar from those of the late Tai Solarin.  However, from events going on around me, I fear for my atheistic soul, since I may yet end up a Born-again! Some handshakes effortlessly command pause, and demand especial attention. They move beyond a mere handshake to become an earth-shaker. Do not take my word for it – here comes a recent exemplar of this genre. We learn every day, and in the end, we all decide which handshake is an edifying spectacle, and which hints at a possible profanity – even retroactive blasphemy. Sometimes, when you believe that rejection of the outstretched hand is eternal, being born of deep convictions, based on inside knowledge from close encounters, even partnerships of long duration, when, despite abject pleading, concession upon concession which only result in further doses of humiliation for one half, we, mere sidelined observers must be forgiven for our deep puzzlement when we are abruptly slapped in the face with a handshake of breath-taking magnanimity, a consummation of seemingly proven incompatibility – in short,  a Handshake Across Time and Memory! The implacable animosity of decades suddenly dissolves, and the once arrogant, contemptuous partner in an unequal bonding in hatred not only annuls the decades-old suspended retracted response of the proferred hand, but thrusts itself forward in a a warm, made-in-heaven handshake, but tops it up with an all-enfolding embrace, braced on either side by prelates of rivaling faiths, annunciting:  “Behold your Redeemeer”! We have indeed marveled at the cleansing virtue of forgiveness, given glory to the Almighty that the age of miracles is not over, dismissing all diabolical thought of possible unholy pacts between devil and saint, obliterating a dichotomy that has been assiduously promoted by one side over these years, a closure to the animosity and rejection, a pact to which the Almighty himself was now summoned, in that iconic moment, to witness and set down for eternity and  beyond. Such has been the miracle of our time, filled with promise of not just any handshake of flesh and blood, but a golden handshake for even the lowest of the electorate in this annus mirabili, the year of national salvation, 2019! Both geographically, spiritually and ethically, this has been one grandfather of all handshake!

    It makes such acknowledged sinner as this speaker feel inadequate and ungodly. I mean, haven’t we all, at one time or the other, on an individual level, deployed that gestre of rejection, but wondered afterwards if we had not been excessive? In the end, in my own experience, I confess that I mostly left the judgment hanging, saying to myself – it was well deserved, there were solid reasons, and the owner of that rejected hand knows it. We all have our thresholds and since, ultimately, our peace of conscience is the sole guarantee of the validity of our choice, we have no option but to maintain such thresholds. That is an individual position. However, a power loaded hand, that is, a hand that weighs more than the hand of mere mortals like you and me, a hand that is representative of more than one’s self, is a far more serious matter. It either indicates the promise of an unprecedented bumper harvest of social returns, or its very opposite – approaching disaster, a future of deep social fractures that no plaster of paris can hold together. The hand we have seen only in dramatic, strident withdrawals, a scene replayed over and over again in and out of office, or else as a bunched fist threatening to strike, or rather like those paintings of the Original Expulsion – an unbending angel of wrath with flaming sword, pointing to the exit door from paradise. Now, suddenly that hand of moral and political repudiation, stridently uncompromising in or out od context, turns to a caressing hand, enfolding the designated pariah that has retreated time and time again like a wilted vegetable, behold that hand of rejectionist fixity suddenly transformed into a hand of papal benediction.

    Let us be thankful for small mercies. The future looks promising. With such lessons in forgiveness, the handshake across Nigeria promises to shake, not only Nigeria but the entire continent. And I do agree, I agree, the sign of patriotism is the ability to put aside personal rancor, to find a common ground – all for the sake of the nation of course, never in one’s narrow interests. We shall pray that the raised arms do not end up falling limply to the sides once again with resentment and irreparable hostility, perhaps with thoughts of vengeance when one’s ultimate aims are yet again frustrated.

    Let us remind ourselves again of the purpose of our presence here this morning. In his or her innermost recesses of the heart where candour is lodged, we know we are here to consult over a stricken nation, seeking some means of joining hands to resuscitate, and even re-vitalize. Each, hopefully, has brought something to the table, and expect to take something away. There will be varying prescriptions – that is inevitable – but our very presence here can serve as a commencement of re-aligning different approaches to the same destination of transformation, perhaps even begin to change one’s conduct towards the totality that constitutes a nation. In the end, exercising a modest optimism, we may even commence a quiet revolution in attitudes within one’s community, spreading the gospel outwards to form a network of viable, committed entities that propel themselves towards one another in renewed appreciation of strengths and weaknesses, leading to the creation a recognizable new social organism to replace the present.

    It is clear, the task is not for government. I do not pretend to know ALL the factors that have led us into this pass, but what I feel I can bring to the table is a personal conviction – which I then hope others will share – that the way forward along the present path is blocked. Totally. In short, that we are left with no option than to return to basics. This is not the equivalent of returning to the past – not in the least – it means returning to the building blocks of co-existence, refurbishing them, then commencing a drastically adjusted socio-political strategy for reconstruction. It is not just a question of surviving as an entity, but of survival in individual and collective social dignity, not continue to slide along the bottom of the trough of peer respect of sister nations, and a sense of shame  – never mind the outward bravado – of carrying that green coloured identity booklet called a passport. It is time for some candour.

    The prospect, fortunately, presents itself as being not altogether bleak. We began with the intervention of a combative religious body, usually at war with others, but now adopting a just cause, across the borders of religious separation. We followed this up with the ecumenical virtue of human forgiveness beside which the South African Truth and Reconciliation exercise simply pales in magnitude, evoking yet again that famous quip of Julius Caesar: There is always something new out of Africa!  Time to proceed to an even more seizeable, more immediately accessible department, offering up a lesson in collaboration across socio-political and cultural divisions that are mere regions of habit, or administrative conveniences – this time, the economic front, but extending into self-made obstacles that interrogate the rational status of leadership. It is the usual story of – sweet and sour.

    A number of the nation’s constitutive units – the states – have of course recognized and actualized the necessity, and continue to give even quantifiable reality to  collaboration in one productive field or another. So, let me single out, as one example, the basic reproductive imperative of human existence – food!  Here and there, we find examples of a Handshake et cetera manifested as a Green Handshake Across the Nation, a rational strategy that is so obviously tuned a survival imperative that is not mired in any contested field of rivaling social preoccupations. I mean – who contests any policy or undertaking that contributes to the production of – food?! Anyone on this earth? So let me proceed to cite an instance to which I happen to be quite close,  and in whose promotion I have even been culturally involved, being an indigene of one of the partnering stages – Ogun – in conjunction with Plateau State. It resulted in the production of a commodity that appears indispensable to the Nigerian palate – rice. To watch the rise and rise of rice pyramids from modest beginnings –  kindly excuse the sound pun, but it came of its own  accord  – The Rise and Rise and Rise of – Rice – perhaps we shall set it to music, and air it at the next cultural festival.

    Once upon a time, you will recall, the image of groundnuts pyramids on the landscape of Kano was so iconic that the nation flaunted that image on postage stamps and nation promotion brochures and journals. Alas, the pyramids gradually diminished until they vanished completely. However, the disappearance was actually a very positive event, not the result of neglect and mismanagement, of corruption, sabotage, of enslavement to foreign tastes, or parasitism on a mono-commodity called – petroleum, if the governor of Kano state – who appears also poised to join the Grain Train, is to be believed. His statement, two years ago went thus:

    The groundnut you are talking about in those years it was the production of groundnut to be exported to the foreign land and be processed and be brought back to Nigeria. “But now it is a different issue. We have a lot of oil mills that consume the groundnut. So, you will not expect to see the groundnut pyramids as you used to see because the economic situation has change. “The industrialisation is much better than those days. “So, you better stop dreaming of groundnut pyramids now. But when you are talking of rice; that is where we need the pyramids now.

     

    Which is very good news indeed and charged with progressive thinking. Kano is marvelously positioned to join hands with Ogun State and Plateau, and possibly others I do not know about. Success breeds emulation – others, one by one will follow suit, assuming they are not already on board, resuscitating moribund localities that went the way of agricultural productivity the moment oil was struck. We have an obligation to stress, strongly and uncompromisingly what should be obvious to all by now, given the lessons of a recent past that is still with us: that this kind of commodity spread, this expanding stain on the rice map of Nigeria is far more progressive, more meaningful for Nigerian humanity, contributes far more to the well-being of any peoples right across their nation – is more worthy of our being as thinking humanity with a rational sense of priority and responsibilities – yes, that’s another useful slogan – Rice across the Nation –  it must be some hidden inspiration of our theme, since I seem to be coming up with these conducive and collaborative variations  – The Rise and Rise of Rice Across the Nation –  I must have been eating some serious rice, but –  to return to where we were – the propulsion and extension of the Grain Train is what the nation needs, the winnowing of grain on the threshing floor, not the spreading of the prayer mat of Sharia across the Nation. There is space for both, but let us get our priorities right. If we cannot spread our prayer mat beside the threshing floor, then we are deservedly doomed both in this world and the next.

    Let me pause right there and ensure that my meaning is correctly taken. Those who wish to take it ill are free to do so. There is nothing I can do, or intend to do about that – just as long as my exact words and the meaning they carry are made to sink into the minds of my audience, both here and absent, without any intermediary amendment, adumbrations, and mischievous, often sinister extrapolations to which we have become sickeningly familiar in our environment. I said, and I repeat, this nation needs rice advocacy far more, and urgently, than religious promotion or extension, least of all religious extremism, the intolerant, divisive strain of belief and practice. Religion is an unchallenged actuality whose presence is felt daily across the nation, as in others, so it does not require my championing. Christianity is a fact of life across the nation, so is islam, as are several Traditional Religions which some like to pretend do not exist, or persuade themselves are inferior to the two religious behemoths.

    If Zamfara – and I deliberately focus on Zamfara out of other culpable states, for reasons that shall become obvious – if Zamfara, for instance, after the departure of a disastrous, profligate military monopoly of power, had focused on Rice, or Sorghum, Wheat, potatoes, garden eggs and any other staple consumables, instead of Sharia, that state would not have become the pathetic hotbed of  banditry that is being experienced in the state today. Food does not divide, Religion does – not basically Religion itself, but the use, the energy, the resources and even political vileness to which it is subjected by the habitual manipulators of any social phenomenon. Religion – and ethnicity of course – are simply putty in the hands of single-minded opportunists, and used with diabolical effectiveness. That it often is not the phenomenon of Religion itself that is divisive is a matter for extended and in-depth, multi-disciplinary debate, and those who have the time and leisure constantly address that issue. Blame who you wish – collectively. The powerful gun lobby in the United States, just as did the Russian inventor of the iconic Kalashnikov etc. all insist – and in strict logic – that the gun does not kill, but the humanity behind it. So let it be with Religion. Religious does not kill, it is the voice behind the Scriptures that blasts humanity to hell. So let it rest.

    What remains incontestable is that a certain virus in the exercise of Religion is a patented killer and, in this nation, Religion has manifested itself as a contagion and a socially retarding, homicidal epidemic. And I am stressing here that, in any reaching across the nation for a handshake in a united purpose, it is far more intelligent to join those hands in producing – Food than in preoccupying oneself with the propagation of Sharia. I conveniently deploy Rice as symbol of human sustenance, and thus the priority of any planning for community. Any government, at any level, which comes into power, and makes Religion is priority, declares and acts Religion as its first port of call, is already an anti-human incursion into social existence. In a constitutionally multi-religious entity, it is a pernicious act, which stands for retrogression. Do not take my word for it – go into Zamfara, and determine for yourselves. Does Zamfara even qualify to be called a state? Of course, I am willing to stretch my arm across the nation to reach Zamfara, but that arm must be strictly to planr rice, and to install any machinery required to reduce the labour of producing rice, to mechanize the process of winnowing the grain from the chaff, ensuring the hygienic conditions of producing tuwo, the staple food in that part of the world, ensuring that its nourishing properties are enhanced, and that distribution of tuwo, and other derivatives of rice reach the impoverished, the children, the disabled, the old, thus reducing the army of beggars that flow from that state in all directions, to join other beggars of other states, trapped in a permanent state of penury, hopelessness, and indignity.

    And it is the same message that embraces maize, sorghum, maize, yam, cassava, garden egg or whatever, but we have watched Rice transfer from its status as a privileged consumer item to become staple diet, a pillar for that edifice now famed as ‘stomach infrastructure’ So when I evoke that grain, I invoke palm oil, starch, beans, garden eggs and all their relations and extended family – and thus, confidently urge that mission:  Rice Across the Nation. This should have been the priority of states like Zamfara, and all those states that followed its retrograde step in advocating, and implementing, often brutally, unconscionably and irresponsibly – Sharia Across the Nation.  But Hands Across the Nation?   –  yes, let this  be meaningful and relevant to human existence. Food, or whatever enables human survival, and their sciences – bind humanity together in common, unbreakable purpose. Food does not exclude any one sector, no matter beliefs, ideology, social status, life-style or gender, and thus – this is where to begin – not policy or faith impositions that have consistently divided humanity and sown death, instead of enhancing life. Rice Across the Nation in the winnowing hands of man and woman on the threshing floor, a unity of laboring hands that also receive commensurate returns from their labour, not expending that labour to extend the already protruding paunches of a rapacious minority. We know them. While one side is laboring, they are spreading the extremist interpretations of the sayings of avatars of religion, long departed avatars of a different age, of different social actualities, of a different nature of knowledge with all its limitations, avatars who are resting peacefully in eternity, indifferent to the self-destructive antics of their supposed followers. Those avatars must surely be looking with disdain and contempt at the humanity they left behind.

    But now, again reverses! The fruits of that endeavor are under siege. Even the southern end of that collaboration, presumed immune from the plague of bigoted minds is threatened. No sooner is one  degraded – to use the military’s own terminology – than an even more determined destroyer take its. Boko Haram in retreat, nomadic herdsmen take its place. Food, that one  irreplaceable, life-sustaining crops –  is under siege. Rice is being reduced to mush under the hooves of – unbelievably but true – the hooves of cattle! So, observe where we are. The material reward of this productive HANDSHAKE ACROSS etc. – is being ground underhoof, its producers chased off their farms, butchered in their beds.What guarantee, asks the farmer, do I have that the product of my labour, will not end in mush and cow dung? Cow disease has been given a new meaning. Experts who are brought into the act from the venture from the security of their productive bases arrive, find themselves confronting a totally unmerited area of problem solving – barbarism. Can they concentrate on tracking the development of hybrids, pest resistant strains? Can they develop the mechanization of production, attuned to the rudimentary technology of their current environment? Can they track, with radar technology, the migratory patterns of locusts and the kwela bird?

    I have no qualms whatsoever for singling out Zamfara, or any one state, as a dismal reference point, and contrasting it in a negative mode with other Nigerian states. We have to get specific, not wallow in generalities. It is only fortuitous that that name begins with the very terminal point of the Alphabet, but right now, any strategy of self-assessment helps. On the other hand, I balk at the obvious candidate to deploy in a conrrasting mode – that is, to find an ‘A’ state which comparatively deserves a Grade ‘A’ development assessment – comparatively, I said. Let’s not waste our time pointing out the defects of any state that we end up co-opting – this is just an exercise in driving home certain long avoided lessons! We must pull ourselves out from the pit of denial. And so – to an ’A’ state.

    Abeokuta is out – we have already commenced with that state and milked it to death. So – Akwa Ibom? ’ There is something from Akwa Ibom that many of us may have forgotten. A former governor, when he took office, swore that his mission was to eradicate the image of Akwa Ibom from that of a supply depot for domestic servants. Has he succeeded? I believe he has, to some extent. I make no comment on other controversial aspects of the governance of that state. I merely single out an intent, a worthy agenda. By contrast, what was Zamfara’s priority? To install Sharia throughout the state. Not even to turn the state into the food basket of the North, or the nation  – as have impressively some of her neighbouring states in that same region, but to order a fleet of buses to ensure segregation between men and women. And the result? While the children of Akwa Ibom were chased off the streets and herded into schools, Zamfara swelled the population of beggars – women and children in other states. Then, ultimately, she became the hunting grounds of yet a third group of insensate killers called simply – bandits.

    Again, let me pause and emphasize this: no state, absolutely no state in the nation is free from the plague of violence and homicidal maniacs. Some, however, are simply unlucky – in any case violence is, by nature,  an exisrential – albeit predatory Handshake Across the All Borders. Rhey remain porous. Others however brought it on themselves through various routes. Their very policies invited marauders, increasingly organized, increasingly ruthless and unconscionable. And – check the records of EFCC, visit the law courts, check the media as far back as you like and you will discover that these retrograde ploys are not even about religion and piety. At the base is criminal opportunism and moral hypocrisy. Religion has been used to rob the state clean of its meagre resources, and to gratify the criminal proclivities of individuals – paedophilia, most notoriously. Check the pages of the media, check the records of the so-called leaders who invoked Religion to justify the cross-border traffic of underage girls they then put through the mockery of marriage. In the meantime, their peers continued to grow – rice – to feed their people, build schools to feed their minds and transform them into worthy citizens of a modern state.

    HANDS ACROSS THE NATION , and beyond the deification of oil – except of course cooking oil –  yes – but my understanding is – ecumenical hands which, when clasped, then raised in supplication, are totally devoid of bigotry and religious discrimination. The products of those hands should be products of multilateral designs and practical productive strategies, stemming from a decentralized consciousness – in a nation like this,  hands which stem from minds that are adaptive, flexible, conscious of productive development elsewhere within the nation and the world that they promote the contents of one context to another, having overcome the inferior partnership status of sending their raw products outside their borders, and receiving them back in a different texture and taste, paying exhorbitant prices for their transformation – more accurately distortion – but creating alienated tastes and craving. These in turn churn out totally new problems at origin, so that even that rudimentary state of supply and demand become a distortion of organic production.

    Let us extend that handshake across even the nation’s borders and learn from immediate neighbours – Cocoa, for instance, is undergoing a similar transformation at-source strategy in Ghana, as are a number of other subsistence crops in the Republic of Benin – interestingly, the pioneer of that major industry – the Songhai Farms – in that Republic is none other than a Nigerian, from the South East! The groundnut pyramids of Kano give way to rice pyramids, and the constantly evolving nature of human sustenance returns control to Source, boosting revenue and reducing unemployment – that patient tinder-box! All that is common sense. It is not an abstruse science, but plain basic human intelligence that does not require a degree in economics or finances, and does not carry the certification of death and destruction.

    Alas, that once predominant image at the northern end of the collaborative axis that we have chosen as our pointer or,  more accurately, has thrust itself on our consciousness from pre-colonial times – the pyramid is passing through a morbid pyramidal transformation – name it pyramids of corpses, courtesy firstly of a homicidal movement called Boko Haram, to be joined‘ later in a competitive orgy of blood letting by a marauding bunch – the nomadic herdsmen. Between them they have turned the nation into a reeking abattoir. Are those abattoirs circumscribed however? Are they confined to some sectors, and none other? No such luck. They are complemented, sustained by individual volunteers all over the nation, those who have made ritual killings their preferred mode of interaction with the rest of society. And of course, need we mention the new rage of kidnappings and the killings that go with the trade, murders that follow even the payment of ransom?

    Where was the Baidoo cult – now hopefully eradicated – located on this planet? At the North Pole? No! Right here, at the opposite end of the national axis to Maiduguri – in an extension of the bustling, ultra-modern commercial capital of Nigeria –  Ikorodu! Tied to wealth of course, infected by the get-rich quick infernal mentality that deadens conscience in both high and low. The nation is dragged down to such abysmal depths of callousness and greed that the business of ritual killing and negotiation of human spare parts for easy wealth has seen the unbelievable episodes of school pupils collaborating in luring victims, their own school mates to their fate. Just how often do we encounter testimonies of the few who fell into such traps and miraculously survived to tell the tale! Just how many of such busted dens – Ibadan, Kwara, Lagos, Ogun, Benue etc. have been reported in the media. For each of such cases where the lucky have survived to testify in court, how many go undetected, unreported. A teenager confesses to killing his own mother, then raping her corpse, having been persuaded that he would thus become a multi-millionaire – even at the age of seventeen or eighteen through matricide and necrophilia. To cite the world’s immortal Bard – there is something rotten in the state of Nigreria

    One moment! I nearly forgot the most currently relevant department of blood –  political killings – obsession with power and position at any level, be it in the upper, glamorous realms at the centre, where one is seen as a beacon of society, and from where the juiciest returns are imagined. Parallel killings occur at the level of the so-called proletariat, for the control of motor garage unions or associations of container management. We need to ask ourselves – how do these differ from those mass murderers of innocent farmers, by the nomadic herdsmen? Birds of the same feather – and talons. Perhaps you will begin to understand why, at the height of the fundamentalist killings in this nation, one of the many lectures I delivered both here and abroad was titled: A Fowl Called Boko Haram.

    Enough. As the Yoruba saying goes: melo melo la o ka l’eyin adepele – it translates: how many teeth does one count in the tiers of dental deformity? The sad fact is the failure of governance to make a connection, to understand that one ambiguous commentary – or silence, or inaction at a critical moment – let me repeat that: inaction at the critical moment – is the beginning of impunity, and is all it takes to create a ripple that expands and expands, and finally divides civil society, designates one side as legitimate victim and the other empowered violator with or without a cause. So as not to lose that point, let me cite once again the dismissive statement of a Minister of Defence in this government at the height of the killings by nomadic herdsmen. His remark: Well, if you block the paths for the movement of cattle, what else do you expect? Unspoken answer: The right of herdsmen to produce AK 47s and mow down fellow humanity. The predictable follows, an entire nation becomes nothing more than a victim population, open to collective, serial abuse, their quality of life irreparably degraded, their expectation from civic membership dwindling to absolute Zero. We then become a do-it-yourself nation.

    Fortunately, do-it-yourself is a recurrent invitation – so, let us embrace it. It is indeed at the very heart of democracy, and the time approaches for another  Do-it-Yourself ritual, enshrined in law and constitution. But first, a final word on that very commodity – law and constitution.

    A nation without law is not a nation. A nation without a constitution is of course an existential disaster. A nation with more than one constitutional ascription is however more than one nation, two masquerades in one costume struggling to manifest themselves as a single apparition. And let us take this occasion to stress, yet again, that nations are not defined by that wearisome mantra of “national sovereignty”, “national unity”, not by thundering oaths of “readiness to lay down own lives for the unity of the country”, “any attempt to break up the country shall not be tolerated”. These are all meaningless rhetoric. It all depends on what you mean by ‘break up’, especially when confronted with the reality of disintegration. This nation, I don’t care who contends is, is disintegrating before our eyes, underneath our feet. And if the only rational solution is a structural breakage that leads into a rfunctioning, productive re-composition of the parts, then by all means, begin the process.  Break it into  pieces and then re-arrange those pieces. Call the new recomposed entity by whatever name you please – restructuring, re-configuration, radical decentralization etc. – there is no shortage of descriptive terms  and – let me silence those who complain that they do not know what these expressions mean. All those expressions have been clearly elucidated in numerous conferences, tomes of elaboration gathering dust in the archives of governance, the last one under President Jonathan, their recommendations arrived at by some of the finest analytical minds in this nation, on the continent, and on the globe, so do not let anyone come at us with a whining protest of lack of comprehension.  The nation, as it stands, as it is configured, is obviously unmanageable and dysfunctional. Those findings are in the public domain.

    Those who claim ignorance of what people mean by restructuring should either immerse themselves in those findings, or recuse themselves from the debate, since they clearly have no interest in it, only an interest in maintaining the status quo, whatever that is. I was part of what was perhaps the longest sustained exercise in that search – PRONACO. Participants in that conference were threatened with arrest and trial for treason by the then government. The Police even had the temerity to issue a statement forbidding a gathering of people to make propositions, in full conscience, and in full democratic freedom for the future of this nation. Some of us came into the exercise on the very account of that undemocratic threat – we dared the then government to make good its threat. We remained with it for nearly two years. A compendium emerged, a Draft Constitution. That was about a decade ago. Once again, the incumbent government has taken to wrong-footing a demand for re-configuration, once again making veiled threats. Slowly and insidiously, we hear sounds that again attempt to equate reconstruction with secession or national break-up. This deceit must stop. It belongs in the dismal category of mischief and desperation – no different from Fake news!

    The ball has been kicked back to the people’s court. You have a responsibility – if you believe in the necessity to withhold your votes from those who say ‘No’ to re-configuring. It is a duty to yourselves and to posterity. But, considering all that has gone before, and threatens to kill the future of this nation, you have a responsibility to go further and say, ‘Enough’ of unchangeable casts of mind whose possessors only re-cycle themselves either directly or by surrogation. It is time to disarm the entire political scene and re-arm the visionaries. The nation needs new players, new minds. It is time that a united opposition seize the bull by the horns and make a determined effort towards total transformation.

    A highway between ocean and desert would come close to being the most primal, most unifying Handshake between cultures that a modern nation like ours can conceive – but where is Nigeria’s? When last did Lagos enjoy an arthritis-free handshake with Ibadan, with Sagamu, how much more – with Kano or Maiduguri? Oh, there is a lot of shaking on that route, and not merely of hands, there is guaranteed spine shake whose bone percussion can be heard across the nation’s orthopaedic hospitals, while mortuaries await next delivery from vehicle pile-ups, engineered by a conditioned morbidity of the roads! When did it begin? Who commenced this debacle? Who sustained it? Now we are told, this very morning, that a decades overdue promise, a routine, functional imperative, has been shifted once again, this time to 2021! These are the returns from the indifference of Representatives who represent no one but their honorable, ego-inflated selves. Behold the ‘dividends of democracy’, that profane canticle of politics of the ‘stomach infrastructure’.

    So, let the chips fall where they will but first, take the plunge! Do not scatter your forces. Come together, agree on an arrow-head. Be selective but, in the main, abandon the decrepit brigade and cast away the counterfeit currency that has proved, over the years, only two sides of the same coin. That coin has not been minted whose two sides can be prised apart – if anything the sides can only get compressed, and stand finally exposed as what they hide: a single counterfeit coin, only worn thin by usage. Why should a new generation not arise on the ashes of the past?  Let us empty those ashes of the old on the Benue and Niger Rivers and flush them down into the Delta estuary, to be carried far away into distant oceans. This nation needs a break. You don’t need anyone to tell you – it needs a totally new orientation where a Head of State does not distrust an over endowed populace so thoroughly that he restricts the entire security structure of the nation only to the closed circuit of his clansmen – and with what results? Can the people boast sounder sleep? But – caution! The nation needs even less offers of rescue from grasping, guilt-laden, hypocritical, control freaks who try to batten on current ineptitudes to replant themselves, their cronies and surrogates yet again on the populace, desperate to reverse even the modest gains of the present, and re-install the Aegean stables of sleaze. Shakespeare phrased it perfectly, as always – A Plague on both their houses! – we need a break from this past where fanatics lay the embers of hate and discord that end up consuming our young, the work of sponsors who fail to learn that they, the arsonists, also get consumed in the end, that their predecessors woke up too late to the fate of pyromaniacs who kept cheering the distant infernos, only to turn round and find that the sparks had already consumed the thatches of their homes. Then begins the wringing of hands in sterile lamentations.

    And so, to the electorate: these past years, you have watched erstwhile political contraptions re-invent themselves again and again, only to implode and disintegrate, sink into deep contradictions. I merely state the obvious, I am no undertaker to walking corpses. For that handshake, stretch your hands across partisan lines but – do not restrict yourselves to the behemoths that have so far dominated the scene. There are new faces, new energies in the neighbourhood – take a good look! Study the terrain and walk off the beaten track.

    To aspirants, who offer us a potential for new thinking, new configurations – step into the black hole created by their inward collapse and illuminate it with a torch of new energy and resolve. Mobilize! Be bold. Be original. Be prepared to sweat! Earn your blisters and treasure them.  Be extremely circumspect but, by all means, identify and ally with individual exceptions in this roll-call of catastrophic players. Begin now. Abandon all timorousness.  Give your future a cause for hope. Reassure your constituencies that you will neither throw out the baby with the bathwater, nor throw good money after bad, that you will not dismantle heedlessly, nor let fall into decrepitude whatever can be salvaged and refurbished for use. Delineate objectives and how they may be achieved. Be specific. Guarantee that you will reinforce institutions which contribute to public good, that where that public good and common wealth are clear, you will abolish the principality of sacred cows – be they on four legs, or two. Take the war, even from now, and with increased zeal and re-invigortion, to corrupt overlords who are so lacking in conscience that they divert and consume resources assigned to the rescue of our daughters and the rest of our humanity from bondage. Reject their sleeping partners. Come down to the people and spell out, in clearest terms, a genuine transformation agenda.

    There is time. More than enough time. Do not be defeatist. It has been done in other places where, when last I visited, the humanity I encountered had only one head each – that is, no different from you. Individual drive is essential and inevitable – that is where it all begins.  When it comes to battle pitch however, only ONE must go forward. You know what to do. Our place is now at the rear, ready to lend our moral energy to your chosen protagonist.

    A Handshake Across the Nation? Yes, but let it also read: A HANDSHAKE ACROSS HISTORY.

     

    Wole SOYI NKA