Category: Sunday magazine

The misses:

Among the plethora of hit-and-miss predictions in the February 25 2023 presidential election, was a three-series poll survey commissioned by ANAP Foundation and conducted by NOI Polls Limited. The first two, conducted by the company in September and December 2022, had tipped the candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Mr Peter Obi for victory. The third survey, released about nine days to the election, was more emphatic in its prediction. It stated that Obi was leading with 21 percent in voter preference, giving 13 percent to the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) got 10 percent. But when the votes in the February 25 election were counted, Obi came third among the four leading candidates. Tinubu won with 8,794,726 votes; Atiku came second with 6,984,520 while Obi came third with 6,101,533 votes. Another miss came from SBM Intelligence for Enough is Enough (EiE) Nigeria. The report also said Obi would win outright in 15 states with the 25 percent threshold in 25 of the 36 states. It gave 11 states to Atiku and the 25 percent target in 27 states. The poll rated Tinubu third with nine states and the mandatory 25 percent vote haul in just 20 states. On the contrary, Tinubu scored above 25 percent votes in 29 states; Atiku 25 states; and Obi 16 states.

Similarly, another poll conducted by an Abuja based firm, Kwakol, had tipped Obi to win by about 53 percent, giving Tinubu and Atiku below 20 percent apiece. Yet another survey, sponsored by Bloomberg News, also projected Obi as the potential winner with 66 of its poll participants going for the LP candidate. In the same vein, another outfit, Premise Data, reported that 72 percent of its poll participants indicated interest in Obi. The poll only mentioned Tinubu and Atiku as footnotes. In a separate poll by Nextier, Obi was rated as leading with over 40 percent, Atiku 26 percent and Tinubu a little above 20 percent.

However, a survey conducted by Political Africa Initiative (POLAF) in collaboration with BusinessDay came up with a different projection. It gave Atiku 38 percent, Tinubu 29 percent, Obi 27 percent and Kwankwaso five percent. It also missed it.

The hits:

Some of the poll surveys however got it right with varying degrees of accuracy. For instance, the one by Stears projected Tinubu to win in the event of low voter turnout. The election recorded about 27 percent turnout in line with the prediction. It turned out that the four leading contestants shared the vote percentage as follows: Tinubu 37, Atiku 29, Obi 25 and Kwankwaso six.

Also, Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research, predicted a win for Tinubu but raised the possibility of a run-off, which did not happen. Another one by the Nigerian Human Rights Community (NHRC) had also tipped Tinubu to win. The 134-member organisation released its report shortly before the election. The report gave votes from the survey’s 19365 respondents as follows: Tinubu 41 percent, Atiku 26 percent, Obi 21 percent and Kwankwaso six percent. The poll concluded Tinubu was the most dominant and widely accepted candidate in the race. In its own poll report, Dataphyte Research projected Tinubu to win the popular votes with 25 percent in more than 24 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). It however missed the target on FCT but was on point in its prediction that there would be no run-off. Similarly, an Abuja based Management Consultant, Dr. Nuradeen Auwal, also tipped the APC candidate for victory. Giving a summary of his research analysis, Dr Auwal stated: “From the analysis presented above, I predict that, as the night follows the day, Tinubu will emerge the winner of the 2023 presidential election”.

The prophets:

Prophets, pastors and church leaders of all hues and shades, had plunged into the murky waters of partisan politics with predictions that could hardly be said to have been inspired by the Holy Spirit. For some of them, it was a feast of malevolence in which the pulpit was deployed to vent their biases and ill will toward a particular candidate that they felt should not be on the ballot. Not a few crossed the lines between heresy and blasphemy just to promote their anointed candidate. A particular Pastor, who was sanctioned by some Western countries for recklessly linking the 5G (Fifth Generation Wireless) to the Covid-19 pandemic, took the campaign to frightening heights. This man of God saw a saint in his preferred candidate while the “Holy Spirit” showed him “demons and  thieves” in others. Others of his ilk were no less vociferous in their attacks targeted at a particular one among the candidates. Many others spoke tongue-in-cheek prophesying in line with their prejudices. Election over, some of these men of God are still spitting fire over their failed predictions, which were in the main, inspired by forces abhorrent to the Holy Spirit. Thankfully, the winner of the election has, over the years, grown layers of skin thick enough to deflect poisonous darts. His is the big head that takes all the knocks. Tinubu has moved on.

However, one Prophet, Tomi Arayomi stood far from the madding crowd. Arayomi had declared that his preferred candidate was Peter Obi but that God revealed to him that it’s Tinubu that was going to win. The young Nigerian Prophet was also said to have predicted the victory of Mr William Ruto in the recent presidential election in Kenya.

Predictions: The 1983 election in perspective:

Predicting election outcomes and winners used to be in the realms of art and science, usually undertaken by professionals in the fields. Over time, the trend has gradually evolved into the realms of the spiritual and the metaphysical. Prophets, parapsychologists, marabouts and others laying claims to clairvoyance have since jumped onboard the wagon.

Those claiming to be witches and wizards are not left out of trade considered to be far above the forté of the uninitiated. In Nigeria, this supposedly mystical phenomenon has continued to gain prominence with every election circle. In the 1980s, two prominent Nigerian parapsychologists of that era, namely, Dr Gabriel Okunzua and Prof Godspower Oyewole dominated the public space with their predictions.

Dr Okunzua concerned himself mainly with public policies and topical national issues. Prof Oyewole on the other hand chose to dwell on election forecasting and predictions.

Oyewole became a household name during the short-lived Second Republic (October 1999 to December 1983). The 1983 presidential election, the second electoral circle in that truncated Republic, featured three major candidates in the race: Chief Obafemi Awolowo of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe of the Nigeria People’s Party (NPP) and Alhaji Shehu Shagari of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN). Shagari was then incumbent President seeking re-election, having won his first election in 1979. About a year to that election, Prof Oyewole claimed to have crystal-gazed and predicted that the name of the eventual winner of the 1983 presidential election was in the Bible. He however, left his prediction hanging by not mentioning any name in particular. There was heightened anxiety that triggered desperation among the contenders, especially Chief Awolowo and Dr Azikiwe who were the two Christians in the race. Apparently to claim Oyewole’s prediction, Awo quickly exhumed his Christian name -Jeremiah while Zik went to the archives to also retrieve his baptismal name -Benjamin. Politicians anywhere don’t leave anything to chance no matter how trivial it may appear. The two foremost nationalists had long jettisoned their Christian names during the struggle for Nigeria’s independence. But Oyewole threw in some ice to dampen the aspirations of the UPN and NPP candidates. He went public to declare that the biblical name he saw in his crystal ball started with ‘S’. Neither Jeremiah nor Benjamin starts with S. Shagari and his NPN who were discomfited with the initial prediction were somehow relieved by the obvious elimination of Jeremiah and Benjamin in Oyewole’s letter ‘S’ prediction. But there was still a dilemma. Being a Muslim, it was obvious Shagari’s name could not have appeared anywhere in the Bible even when all his three forenames – Shehu Usman Aliyu are prefixed to

his surname. There was palpable tension in the Shagari camp. So the ruling party’s spin doctors swiftly went to work. They flipped through the Bible from the first to the last page in search of a name that starts with S to be appropriated for their candidate. They finally found the name Shamgar somewhere in the Book of Judges. Armed with the discovery, the party then revved its propaganda machine by digging deeper around the name Shamgar. They then discovered that Shamgar was indeed the son of one Anath. The Book of Judges recorded how God chose to use Shamgar, an unknown man, to accomplish His work. The story further indicated that Shamgar was used by God in a great way and that the man vanished back into the shadows afterwards. So the Shagari camp appropriated Shamgar for Shagari. Their Bible “search” also came up with claims linking Aliyu, one of Shagari’s forenames, to Eli, a Prophet in the Bible. And on the eve of the election, Oyewole pulled the veil off his obscure prediction.

According to him, the letter S in his prediction indeed stood for Shamgar, the son of one Anath in the Bible. That was the clincher the NPN spin doctors were waiting for. Shamgar, they proclaimed, was a biblical version of Shagari and that Anath was a version of Anetu, which they claimed was Shagari’s mother’s name. It was of little interest to them that the Bible never stated whether Anath was a man or a woman. Shagari and his NPN went ahead to win the highly controversial election. It was sheer trickery conceived by a chartered seer and executed by desperate politicians. What a thing about politics.

Emilokan, Eleyi, O lule, “A ma dibo, a ma wo’le”, all memorable electioneering chirps and slogans, made their ways into the Nigerian electoral lexicon, at crucial stages of the run-up to the 2023 general elections. 3 June 2022: Emilokan, Eleyi, O lule entered the electoral fray.  The phrases were so catchy that former President Olusegun Obasanjo was among the first to celebrate them.

After later meeting with APC presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, who went to update him on his presidential quest, Obasanjo triumphantly announced the dawn of those brand new campaign soundbytes.

Obasanjo would later back LP’s Peter Obi.  But little did he imagine his candidate would “lule” (crash); and that his Tinubu “reject” would fulfil his near-prophetic, positive self-assertion: “Emilokan”: Yoruba for “It’s my turn”. 

Since then, it’s been throaty lamentation from the Obasanjo/Obi camp: with Obasanjo drawing vicious flak for nudging President Muhammadu Buhari (PMB) to cancel results and arrange fresh elections, when he knew Obi “ti lule” and “Emilokan” had won it.

Why, even Portable, irreverent artiste, riling and mocking, had called out Ogun State Governor Dapo Abiodun, as “Iwo Eleyi”,  irreverently punning his name, Dapo, in a particularly niggling way!

That was during the APC primaries and titanic tussle for the ruling party’s ticket.  Tinubu won the ticket hands down.

“A ma dibo, a ma wole” came from the dead heat of campaign for the election proper, with the Naira and fuel scarcity biting hard — the one from the miscarried Naira redesign project; the other from alleged intra-APC sabotage — to allegedly scuttle Tinubu’s otherwise bright chances, at the presidential poll. 

It was 25 January 2023.

On the stumps in Abeokuta, Tinubu blurted, to a thick crowd of roaring partisans: “Let them increase the price of fuel and hoard it; let them hoard money, the Naira.  We will go and vote and we will win.  Even if they change the ink on Naira notes; whatever their plans, it will come to nought.  We are going to win.  Those in the PDP will lose (won ma lule).”

“A ma dibo, a ma wo’le” was born!  It would prove another Emilokan prophecy!

Again, it was sublime and supreme bluff of the ultimate risk taker in Tinubu, when the stakes were high!  It’s doubtful if any other candidate could have spun such a huge stumbling block into a massive stepping stone.

That was clear from how PDP’s Atiku Abubakar and LP’s Obi resorted to cant, in the fond hope both would benefit from the Presidency’s blunder. 

Like Emilokan that sent electric shocks through the party’s spine, this latest challenge put everyone in virtual disarray — the Presidency, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and Godwin Emefiele, its recalcitrant governor; and authorities at the Petroleum Ministry/Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL).

It was the ultimate shock therapy that virtually reset election-season duty of the government towards citizens. 

PMB set up a committee to comprehensively look into the crippling fuel scarcity.  For seven previous years, fuel scarcity had almost become history.  Yet, at the virtual last minute of his eight-year tenure, and on the cusp of sustainable local refining of crude oil, it had made a stubborn return.

The battle on the Naira scarcity front was even fiercer, culminating with the Supreme Court eventually voiding the exercise, ruling that both old and new Naira denominations remained legal tender till year end 2023.

Incidentally, these picturesque soundbites were birthed in Abeokuta, now capital of Ogun State but the cradle of journalism in Nigeria, with the founding of Iwe Irohin, the CMS proselytizing medium, in 1859.

Might Abeokuta then be part of the near-magical Tinubu march to the Nigerian Presidency, despite the thick plots and counterplots, at every critical juncture of the hard and tortuous journey?

The most intricate of those manoeuvres played out in the Presidency, in the dead heat of tussle for APC presidential nomination. 

For starters, the Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo (PYO), hitherto Tinubu’s protege and beneficiary for Vice President, ogled the APC presidential ticket — his body language radiating his own Emilokan, having served President Muhammadu Buhari (PMB) with loyalty, dignity and decorum.

Indeed, not a few contrasted the PMB/PYO partnership with the dysfunctional Olusegun Obasanjo/Atiku Abubakar pair (1999-2007); and fairly acclaimed the difference was — and still is — clear, as in the famous 7Up advert. 

That verdict resulted from the bonding and mutual respect between both, despite one being a Fulani Muslim; and the other being a Yoruba Pentecostal pastor.

Still, PYO would appear conflicted, running against his leader and umpteenth benefactor.  But he also felt, well, entitled to earning PMB’s backing for nomination, having been a loyal and supportive Vice President. 

The only militant voice from the PYO camp appeared Femi Ojudu, former journalist and senator, who went on early offensive to push PYO’s case.  He didn’t gather much traction but that didn’t stop PYO from declaring his intent online.

But aside from PYO, other party and presidency power centres dropping the  president’s name, were neck deep in the court intrigues: promising sundry hopefuls they had the president’s ears to make their dreams come true.

From the blue, Abdullahi Adamu, the APC national chair, announced PMB had picked Senate President, Ahmed Lawan, as “consensus candidate”.  That sent virtual electric shock down the party’s spine! 

With PMB from the Northwest, and having taken the first APC ticket for president, and on the last lap of his second term, it was inconceivable that APC’s next presidential ticket would remain in the North.

The most powerful regional blocs in the opposition alliance that formed APC were from North West and South West. 

In terms of what each brought to the table, however, Tinubu’s Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) entered APC with more governors and more National Assembly legislators than any other legacy partner: PMB’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), then Borno Governor, Kashim Shettima’s All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) and Rochas Okorocha’s splinter segment of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).

ACN’s prominence in APC’s founding history gave PYO much hope, if only PMB would endorse him.  The president never did.  He told PYO what he told everyone: go into the primaries and try your luck.

Still, contrasted to PYO’s hope to cash in, Tinubu was the driving force and clear living symbol of that North West-South West entente that delivered APC. 

For that “crime”, the likes of Chief Ayo Adebanjo, later joined by the Yoruba Nation lobby, had started the whispering campaigns that Tinubu had “sold” the Yoruba to the Fulani. 

It was therefore obvious that should the honorific APC “National Leader” make a bid for the ticket, it would be his to lose, judging from his contribution and personal sacrifices in forging the alliance.

Besides, the Adamu announcement sent the APC northern governors, led by Kaduna’s Nasir El-Rufai, scuttling to PMB for confirmation, while irrevocably committing themselves to zoning the APC presidential ticket to the South.  PMB disowned the Adamu kite.

While all of that was going on, a “split” Ogun Governor Dapo Abiodun was doing a delicate balance, playing the end against the middle. 

A part of him rooted for PYO, given their common Remo, Ijebu nativity.  But the other part slunk back with a pang of conscience. 

When former Governor Ibikunle Amosun was determined to undo Abiodun’s nomination — even with PMB seated at the APC Abeokuta campaign in 2019 — it was Tinubu that seized the initiative and handed Abiodun the APC flag.

Gbenga Daniel, Amosun and Abiodun had quite a history.  The trio were part of Obasanjo’s PDP storm troopers that took over Ogun in 2003.  Daniel won the governorship.  Amosun won the Ogun Central senate seat, before falling out with Obasanjo.  He later became two-term APC Ogun governor and now, sitting senator.

But for whatever reason, Amosun was dead set against Abiodun succeeding him.  Yet, here was the same Abiodun dithering between Tinubu and PYO! 

That provided the grist for the first of the colourful sound bites, Eleyi, by Tinubu who was clearly piqued by it all!

Eleyi (“ungrateful you”, in contemptuous Yoruba) was the ultimate verbal lampoon for an ungrateful Governor Abiodun, from an angry Tinubu’s lashing tongue!  The Eleyi of Ogun State took the fury in rare equanimity.  Henceforth, he appeared to shift his support from Osinbajo.

From Abiodun, the Emilokan heat scorched the president himself.  After crashing thrice – read the picturesque “O lule” – and even swearing he would never contest again, Tinubu said it was he who went to Kaduna and nudged him to run again on APC ticket.  The rest, to echo that popular phrase, is history: a two-term PMB presidency.

It was from this white rage that the inimitable “Emilokan” was born.  Tinubu roared: “After eight years of PMB, the ticket should move South.  Even in the so-called South, it’s the turn of the Yoruba.  Among the Yoruba, it’s my turn: Bola Ahmed Tinubu.”

Enter Emilokan, the most gripping of the famous sound bites.  It was frozen in rock, as hard and solid as Abeokuta, where it was first proclaimed.  It marked a rocky and gritty ride to the Nigerian Presidency!