As Nigeria heads toward another high-stakes general election, the move by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to register fresh political parties has sparked debate over whether the development expands democratic choice or dilutes it. Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI reports.
On a humid morning in Abuja last week, a cluster of reporters gathered at the headquarters of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) as its Chairman, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, announced a new wave of political parties seeking recognition. Fourteen associations, from the African Transformation Party (ATP) to the Abundance Social Party (ASP), had cleared the first hurdle toward registration.
The All Democratic Alliance (ADA) and the Advance Nigeria Congress (ANC) are among the other associations that were shortlisted for registration.
The announcement by Prof. Yakubu drew swift reactions. “This is the beauty of democracy — more voices, more choices,” said Dr. Ifeanyi Ogu, a political science lecturer. But civil society activist Aisha Abdullahi countered: “We’ve been here before. More parties don’t always mean more democracy — sometimes they just mean more confusion.”
For ordinary Nigerians, the news feels both distant and immediate. At a shopping mall in Lagos, a shop attendant, Emeka Okafor, shrugged: “We already have too many parties. Only two or three matter in the end. Why waste time with new names?” But across town, student activist Grace Olorunfemi was more optimistic: “We need fresh voices. The PDP and the APC have failed us. Maybe new parties can push different ideas.”
As Nigeria moves toward 2027, the central question is clear: does the proliferation of political parties expand democratic choice — or dilute it?
The legal maze
INEC disclosed on September 5 that 171 groups had submitted letters of intent. By last Thursday (September 11), 14 had been cleared to proceed. Interim chairmen and secretaries of these pre-qualified associations have been invited to a briefing on Wednesday (September 17), after which physical verification of their claims will be conducted before final registration approval.
The criteria are listed in Section 222 of the Constitution and the Electoral Act 2022: submission of executive members’ names and addresses; evidence of inclusive membership; proof of internal democracy; adherence to federal character; and an approved constitution, manifesto, and symbol.
Still, critics doubt enforcement. Yusuf Dantata of the PDP alleged: “We know how these rules are applied. Some groups with connections fly through. Others are frustrated with endless queries. If INEC wants credibility, it must be even-handed.”
For INEC, however, discretion is limited. “We do not manufacture requirements,” Yakubu said at a press briefing. “If groups fulfil them, we cannot lawfully stop their registration. That is democracy — messy, but lawful.”
Ballot overload
Party proliferation carries practical risks. Analysts warn of ballot congestion, voter confusion, and invalid votes.
“Choice is fundamental, but excess choice creates paralysis,” explained Dr. Ayo Okunlola, an electoral scholar. “In 2019, voters struggled with ballot papers that resembled posters. Some mistook party logos, others spoiled ballots outright.”
Examples abound. In Kogi State’s 2019 governorship election, polling agents reported voters asking for clarification on party logos, often confusing minor parties with similar symbols.
The key risks include: Decision paralysis: too many options discourage careful choices.
Superficial voting: voters rely on symbols, not manifestos.
Spoiled ballots: mistakes rise, especially among less literate voters.
The numbers tell the story: Three parties in 1999; 91 in 2019; then 18 after deregistration. Projections for 2027 suggest around 32.
At a motor park in Lagos, driver Sunday Akinola was blunt: “If I see 30 logos, I just look for a broom or an umbrella. The rest are decorations.”
INEC’s heavy burden
For INEC, more parties mean heavier logistics. Longer ballots require more paper and secure printing. Transporting these ballots across the 36 states would stretch the incurred costs. Training thousands of ad-hoc staff becomes harder.
Yakubu insists the commission is ready. He said, “INEC has managed 91 parties before. We will manage whatever number emerges in 2027. Our duty is to deliver credible elections, not to block citizens’ rights.”
However, insiders admit strain. A senior staff member of the commission who pleaded for anonymity confided in our reporter: “Verification of new associations alone consumes weeks of manpower. Monitoring compliance, campaign finance, and internal elections multiplies our workload. It diverts resources from other core preparations.”
Many civil society activists share this concern. “Logistics is the heart of credibility,” argued Ezenwa Nwagwu of Partners for Electoral Reform. “When INEC is overstretched, errors creep in. Errors in Nigeria are not neutral — they fuel suspicion and conflict.”
Opposition in pieces
Politically, proliferation could fragment the anti-APC vote. In legislative elections, which are decided by simple pluralities, APC candidates may win with slim margins while opposition votes scatter.
“This is déjà vu,” said Dr. Oby Nwosu, a civil society activist. “When you have 10 opposition candidates against one ruling party candidate, you don’t need to be a mathematician to know who benefits.”
Opposition leaders agree but often act otherwise. Within the PDP, some younger politicians are privately eyeing new political platforms to realise their ambition in 2027, while others have already jumped ship. “The PDP is too compromised,” one said. “We need fresh energy, even if it starts small.”
APC stalwarts see an opportunity for their party with the division within the ranks of the opposition. Senator Musa Ibrahim declared, “Register 200 parties if you want. Opposition will divide itself. We will organise and win.”
Proxy politics
Beyond fragmentation, civil society activists warn of manipulation. Some new parties may be covert projects of the ruling party, designed to split opposition votes in key states.
“Some of these so-called new parties are proxy outfits,” said Ene Obi of CLEEN Foundation. “They are spoilers, not competitors.”
A former opposition governor who does not want his name in print alleged: “In the last election cycle, people were quietly offered ministerial slots if they would float new parties instead of strengthening coalitions. It’s a divide-and-rule strategy dressed as democracy.”
Such allegations are hard to prove, but the suspicion is widespread.
Lessons abroad
Here are relevant comparisons to help clarify the picture: In Kenya, while small parties abound, coalitions are the norm. In order to pool resources, prevent vote splitting, and present united fronts prior to elections, disparate parties form alliances (such as Kenya Kwanza). That model forces opposition to negotiate early. This tends to reduce fragmentation.
Ghana demonstrates how strong parties with clear internal structures and fairly enforced rules (for registration, primary elections, and electoral thresholds) support a mostly two-party system in practice (despite more parties legally existing). Voters in Ghana know that the contest is between the National Democratic Congress (NDC) vs the New Patriotic Party (NPP); fringe parties exist, but they don’t dominate ballot space or media conversation.
Smaller parties can win legislative seats in South Africa according to their votes, thanks to the country’s proportional representation system. This gives credible incentives for parties to institutionalise and maintain coherence, rather than simply contesting for symbolic recognition.
In Ethiopia, proliferation along ethnic lines has fueled polarisation and conflict, a cautionary tale. In Germany, a five per cent threshold filters serious parties from symbolic ones.
Dr. Grace Adeyemi summarised the lessons thus: “The problem is not legal proliferation, but weak institutions. Nigeria has many logos, but few real parties. Without internal democracy and grassroots structure, parties remain shells.”
History repeats
Party proliferation is not new. Dozens of small parties, many ethnic or regional in character, mushroomed during the First Republic of the 1960s. Military rule swept them away.
The Second Republic (1979 to 1983) permitted only five parties. The Third Republic experiments of the 1990s had the National Republican Convention (NRC) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) duopoly. The Fourth Republic began in 1999 with three parties: the PDP, the Alliance for Democracy (AD), and the All People’s Party (APP).
Justice Dahiru Musdapher’s 2002 court ruling against restrictive registration rules triggered a surge, peaking at 91 parties in 2019. After poor electoral showings, INEC deregistered 74, leaving 18.
History shows a cycle: proliferation, confusion, deregistration, and consolidation.
Ultimately, Nigeria’s democracy requires a balance between choice and order: a multiparty system that offers genuine alternatives without producing debilitating fragmentation. Achieving this balance will require legal reforms, institutional strengthening, and political responsibility from all stakeholders.
Shielding INEC from interference
Strengthening INEC’s independence is essential. Experts recommend:
Technology: invest in robust platforms for registration, finance tracking, and results transmission.
Autonomy: constitutional safeguards to shield INEC’s funding and leadership from executive interference.
Transparency: publish clear criteria, reasons for approvals and rejections, and timelines for registration.
Former INEC chair Attahiru Jega has long advocated for an Election Offences Commission. Civil society agrees. “Until politicians fear consequences, impunity will continue,” said Samson Itodo of Yiaga Africa.
Beyond numbers
Party registration reform should go further:
Performance thresholds: tie continued registration to minimum vote shares or number of seats won.
Clear rules: publish criteria and decisions openly.
Coalition incentives: encourage opposition groups to merge platforms.
Civic education: expand awareness so voters distinguish parties by programs, not logos.
Civil society oversight: watchdogs must audit INEC decisions and expose irregularities.
“Numbers alone don’t make a democracy stronger,” said activist Hauwa Ibrahim. “Credible parties, fair rules, and knowledgeable citizens all contribute to its strength.”
Expansion or dilution?
Nigeria now stands at a crossroads. Party proliferation may expand choice, but without safeguards, it risks confusion, manipulation, and fragmentation.
If INEC remains opaque and opposition remains divided, 2027 could reproduce old flaws: crowded ballots, disoriented voters, and entrenched incumbents.
Yet, reform is still possible. With transparency, stronger institutions, and coalition-building, Nigeria could turn proliferation into renewal.
As one Abuja-based analyst concluded, “The 2027 general election will not just test politicians. They will test the resilience of Nigeria’s democracy itself.”
