The Nation Newspaper

Category: Waheed Odusile

Funding our military

At the height of the pro-democracy protests over the annulment of June 12, 1993 presidential election, the rumour mill was very active churning out one story after another, feasting on the mood of the populace.

In the camp of those opposed to the cancellation of the poll, it was generally believed that the United States and other western allies were going to send troops and equipment to help topple the Abacha government and restore the winner of that election, Bashorun MKO Abiola. It never happened.

Such was the belief among pro-democracy activists and their supporters that the Americans were going to put boots on the ground and chase away Abacha. They were utterly gutted and felt let down by the US when at the end of the day, Washington sent neither soldiers nor equipment and Abiola died in detention without actualising his mandate.

You can imagine the skepticism when the rumour mill came alive again in the aftermath of the abduction of over 200 Nigerian school girls in Chibok, Borno State, over a month ago by Boko Haram insurgents that America was going to help Nigeria militarily to find the girls. Once beaten twice shy? But this time around the Yankees are living up to expectation.

And you need to see how relieved many were last week when after several weeks of expectation, President Barack Obama finally approved the deployment of 80 US servicemen and equipment to join many international well wishers collaborating with the Nigerian military to find and bring back our girls.

The relief was however dampened in some quarters when it emerged that the US Air Force personnel and equipment would be based in Chad, Nigeria’s northern neighbour and not on Nigerian soil. The arrival of the American surveillance aircraft and personnel came in the wake of a similar deployment by the United Kingdom of its state-of the-art surveillance aeroplane-The Sentinel- to Accra, Ghana to also help Nigeria in the search for the Chibok girls. Many view the stationing of these two aircraft and the accompanying personnel outside the shores of Nigeria as a sign of lack of confidence in the Nigerian military by America and Britain.

In the fight against Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, the US military not only operated from neigbhouring Pakistan, but has substantial men and equipment on ground in Afghanistan to fight the terrorists. What are the Americans afraid of in Nigeria? In order to be seen as patriotic, one could argue that only the Americans can say why they chose Chad over Nigeria in that troop deployment and that our military is up there among the very best in the league of medium powers. ‘We have the capacity to host and collaborate with the US military or any other superpower military in this rescue mission’, one could blindly argue, but regrettably this doesn’t seem to be the case.

And in a tacit endorsement of the position of the skeptics on the operational readiness and competence of the Nigerian armed forces to fight the war on terror, the Nigerian Army last week cried out over the poor funding of our military, especially the army. The slightly over N4 billion annual budgetary allocations to the army, the service say is grossly inadequate to equip the troops, not to talk of training and other needs of the modern soldier. The army high command is calling on government to look at other sources of funding and equipping our military to meet with the changing times and security challenges.

Before the Americans open snub of our military in their troop deployment, not a few have expressed serious doubt in the ability and capability of our armed forces to effectively fight, contain and defeat the Boko Haram insurgency. And their position is strengthened so to speak by the ease at which Boko Haram strikes and spreads terror in the land with little or no response from the Nigerian military and other security forces.

If Boko Haram could strike at a military base in the north east, a supposedly secure location, and several months after the perpetrators have not been brought to book, why should the Americans or any other serious military for that matter trust our military base to secure their men and equipment? Why would any other military want to use our military base when our ‘boys’ in the theatre of the insurgency and heart of a military base, could rebel and fire at their commander in frustration and protest?

I am not an expert in military or security matters and I don’t have to be one to know that common sense dictates that a man who is not safe or secure in his house cannot guarantee the safety of his visitor. The Nigerian military as it stands today cannot offer that guarantee to any other armed forces on our soil. It is as simple as that: let the truth be told.

Why are we in this mess or how did we get into this mess that we cannot even provide safety for someone who wants to help us? Simple! Years of neglect and corruption. Self-centredness and wickedness on the part of our successive leaders, have almost reduced the Nigerian Armed Forces, once the pride of Africa, to a band of Boys Brigade. And the military has a hand in the systematic destruction of this once national institution and pride. The soldiers have spent more years at the helm in this country than the civilians and each left the military worse than it met it. Why? Greed!

It is easier to blame President Goodluck Jonathan and the present leadership of the Nigerian armed forces for the sorry state of our military today and the failure of our soldiers to effectively defend the nation’s territorial integrity, but the rot did not start with them. It goes way back.

The only blame Jonathan would have as commander-in-chief is if he leaves the military as it is by the time he is leaves office and thus expose our nation to more danger. He should heed the call of the army for improved funding of the military and galvanise the private sector to engage in the local production of what I would call ‘below the belt’ military equipment (uniform, beret, helmet, boots, small arms et al, for now) to conserve foreign exchange for the importation of real military hardware that can stand us in good stead in the 21st century warfare. After all the primary duty of a commander-in-chief is the protection of the territorial integrity of his nation.

This is a call to arm, President Jonathan; before you go let’s have a robust and effective fighting machine called the Nigerian Armed Forces; the ones that can defend us and we’ll be proud of. As your administration winds down, I am afraid the time is short, but you can do a lot by setting the ball rolling. You can do it if you want to and if you fail to do it, Nigerians will never forgive you.

May 27, 2014
Now that the world is watching

Watching Aisha Sesay the other day interviewing President Goodluck Jonathan’s propagandist, Dr Doyin Okupe and Information Minister Labaran Maku on CNN over Federal government’s lackluster response to the Chibok school girls abducted by Boko Haram left one wondering whether these agents of the government know that the world is a global village and no country is an island.

Spewing blatant lies and falsehood, Maku and Okupe tried unsuccessfully to hoodwink the CNN correspondent into believing that Jonathan and indeed the Nigerian government was on top of the situation and would soon bring the perpetrators of the dastardly acts to book, as they often tell us here after every terror strike by Boko Haram.

Pointedly they were asked why it took our president three weeks to appear on camera to talk about the abducted school girls. And like a thief caught in the act, they were incoherent, particularly Maku, in their defence of the Commander-In-Chief. Sesay asked such probing questions that the authorities here would have berated the reporter over if the questions were being asked by a Nigerian journalist.

The CNN woman was a reporters’ delight, forget about whatever prejudice the American network or any other western media might harbor against Nigeria, our government gave them the opportunity to lampoon us, and that they did, justifiably so, to their satisfaction.

I wonder what the hired defenders of the Jonathan administration here at home would say now. The truth has no duplicate; the federal government messed up as always in situations like this, on this Chibok school girls abduction and every attempt to put up a defence or explain why it did not act on time would only infuriate Nigerians the more. May be the president should apologise to the rest of us, I mean the parents of the girls and other Nigerians, draw a line under the matter and we move ahead with the search and rescue operation.

Prior to the global outrage that followed the abduction and the less than impressive handling of the matter by the Federal Government, intelligence sources had indicated that Nigeria was not willing to accept offer of foreign assistance, especially military assistance in order to protect the nation’s sovereignty. Which sovereignty you might want to ask? Is it the sovereignty that is being gradually taken away by Boko Haram under the president’s watch? The sovereignty that our government appears so incapable of defending?

Well, thank God that doesn’t seem to be the position any longer following President Jonathan’s acceptance of military/intelligence assistance from the United States and a host of other friendly countries. And I think our president has done well here.

And now that the world has offered to assist and we have accepted, no effort should be spared to bring the girls home. Thanks to Madam Oby Ezekweseli, the #BRING BACK OUR GIRLS, campaign has gained such support around the globe and prompted the avalanche offer of assistance that even Boko Haram has been forced into a rethink. Now the terrorists are showing a softening of position, offering some sort of unilateral ceasefire albeit with conditions.

And just yesterday they released a group photograph of the girls against the backdrop of series of reports that they might have been sold into sex slavery somewhere in the Central African Republic. The photograph, with a couple of armed hooded terrorists on guard, I believe was Boko Haram’s way of saying the girls are ‘safe’ but don’t attempt to come and rescue them militarily; let’s talk if you want them back. Uhmmmmm, what a dicey situation. Meanwhile there are reports that our soldiers are combing the Sambisa Forest where the girls are presumably being kept. So what do we do?

In rescuing the girls efforts should be made, by our military to utilize whatever superior technology, weapons and intelligence our friends are offering. Casualties, especially on the part of the girls should be minimized as much as possible if they cannot be avoided totally. There is no point in going it alone if we cannot do it safely. The example of the botched rescue of kidnapped foreigners in Sokoto sometime ago is still fresh in our memory.

In whatever operation to rescue the girls, the Nigerian military would be on trial and the focus of attention by all the militaries of the world. If we do it well, then we would be making a statement that we are up to it in terms of protecting our people and rescuing them wherever and whenever they are in danger. But can we really do it?

With the attention of the world firmly on Nigeria and Boko Haram, the international community should use this opportunity to help rid our country and by extension the West African sub region of terrorism; and France in particular has a big role to play here. The bulk of the ECOWAS is dominated by French speaking countries and the lack of cooperation between these countries and the few Anglophone West African nations is very glaring, especially in terms of security.

Though not a West African country, Cameroon for instance borders Nigeria to the east and south east and is known to be a haven for Boko Haram. The reluctance of the authorities in Yaounde to help Nigeria fight this terror is well known in spite of appeals from Abuja. It does appear that nobody except France can push or cajole Cameroon into taking action against Boko Haram, even if only in its territory. France could lead a joint military operation involving Nigeria and Cameroon to get these terrorists out of our sub region. Recall that with France leading and an African military contingent comprising mainly of Nigerian troops, went into Mali not too long ago to rid that country of elements linked with al Qaeda. Same can be done here and Boko Haram would become history.

Our people have suffered enough in the hands of these sons of the devil and if the international community truly wishes Nigeria well and desirous of the good health and wellbeing of West Africa, then they would crush Boko Haram and all such terrorist groups threatening the peace of our continent. Don’t forget the al Shabab in Somalia threatening to throw the whole of the east African region into disarray.

It is not enough to help us BRING OUR GIRLS HOME, but the international community must help us make our region safe and create a conducive atmosphere for economic prosperity. By doing this they would also be helping themselves by not only destroying the sources of supply of terrorists in their countries, but also stemming the tide of economic migrants from Africa to Europe. As the Yoruba would say, Irorun igi, ni irorun eye; the comfort of the tree, is the comfort of the bird.

May 13, 2014
Shutting down Abuja and Mrs Jonathan’s reckless statement

The federal government from all indications is bent on trumpeting Nigeria’s so called economic growth even when the reality on ground does not support the phantom optimism.

You recall the economic miracle performed by that female magician, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. She called it rebasing and pronto, Nigeria’s economy jumped the queue and moved to the top position in Africa, even ahead of South Africa, not minding the fact that the two major indices used in arriving at this rebased economy-telecoms and the entertainment industries are driven by South Africa’s economy. Number one indeed.

So much has been written for and against Okonjo-Iweala’s rebased economy that it is better to leave it than risk constant headache in an attempt rationalize Madam Magician’s logic. But even at this the Federal Government would still like us and indeed the rest of the world to believe that things are looking up for our economy and the other facets of our lives. While it is not totally gloomy for Nigeria, the picture being painted by the Jonathan administration is not only deceptive but misleading.

To tell the world that all is well and to reassuring dispirited Nigerians that it is on top of the challenges facing our nation, the Federal Government is going ahead with the hosting of the World Economic Forum (for Africa) or what has been dubbed Africa’s Davos in Abuja, whereas common sense would have dictated otherwise considering the current state of the nation.

And to show its desperation to host this forum, the President has ordered all public offices and schools in Abuja to shut down during the period ostensibly to enhance its capacity to provide adequate security for participants at the forum. The decision which will not go unnoticed by the international community has instead of reassuring the world that Nigeria is safe as the government would want everyone to believe exposed the government’s impotence in the fight against the Boko Haram insurgency.

Sending the kids home on forced holiday and keeping civil servants away from their offices just to show the world that we can host international events even in the face of serious security challenges would no doubt gladden the hearts of Boko Haram insurgents and their leaders particularly Shekau. It should not be a surprise if in his next video clip he points at the shutting down of Abuja by the government as one of the achievements of his group so far signaling its capacity to drive terror and fear into the administration even without exploding any bomb.

I think the closure of schools and offices is just playing into the hands of the terrorists and the government might inadvertently have handed Boko Haram a propaganda tool in its recruitment drive. I agree that the government is between the devil and the deep blue sea in this matter as calling off the forum could hand a bigger propaganda tool to Boko Haram while keeping everything as normal while the forum is holding could also be too much to ask of our security agencies and unnecessarily expose the summiteers and the general public to danger in the event that Boko Haram decides to strike.

So what could we have done or can we do?

In asking to host the forum, the federal government surely knew that Boko Haram would still be a factor in our security challenge by the time the summit begins in Abuja and as such should have factored the renewed insurgency against the federal capital into its plans. Prior to now, especially in the run up to the Nyanya attacks, Boko Haram had warned of the imminence of terror attacks in and around the Federal Capital Territory. What measure(s) did the government take to prevent the Nyanya attacks? And if we couldn’t stop them from striking at Nyanya, in spite of the long notice, what guarantee do we have that the visitors coming for the forum can be adequately protected?

If the government intention in asking to host the forum as I suspect is to show the world that Nigeria is working, shutting down Abuja to ward off Boko Haram is not the best way to do it. I can’t see the US government shutting down New York every time the UN General Assembly meets. And the Assembly, drawing all world leaders does meet once a year. All we could have done is to step up security seen and unseen around Abuja while allowing live to continue as normal. We could ask for assistance from those who have experience in this type of thing-fighting terror and living normal life- instead of this resort to panic.

The argument in some circles is that asking for foreign assistance to fight this terror could be tantamount to surrendering our sovereignty. I disagree. If such assistance is sought in good faith and also given in good faith, the question of losing sovereignty would not arise.

We can’t have everything? Even the most developed countries in the world seek help in certain areas where they are deficient. What we could and should do is to seek strategic alliance in terms of security with countries that can help us overcome our security challenges and make our country safe. This is a long term thing. As an ad hoc measure, nothing stops us from seeking direct assistance from friendly countries during the Abuja forum even if it means having foreign boots on ground just to protect our visitors and our people throughout that period. There is no shame in this. After this we can no plan properly for the future how to fight Boko Haram and the likes.

And talking about fighting Boko Haram, one is at a loss over the meddlesome role being played by our First Lady Mrs Patience Jonathan over the abduction of the school girls in Chibok, Borno State by the terrorists. Calling the government of Borno State names is not the best way Madam Jonathan could help resolve this crisis. Not even her threat to march on Chibok and face Boko Haram bullets if need be would bring back our girls. Fiery speeches would not do it either.

I think the First Lady should leave the matter in the hands of her husband and the security forces instead of her inflammatory comments. If she has any idea on how to resolve the problem, she could pass it on to her husband in their bedroom instead of playing to the gallery under the guise of showing concern for the girls and their parents. We are all pained by the development, but we need sober heads to overcome this challenge and bring our girls home. If Madam Jonathan has nothing positive to contribute to the effort to rescue the girls, let her keep quiet.

May 6, 2014
When terror strikes

As had been feared, Boko Haram was behind last week terror attack at Nyanya Motor Park in Abuja killing no fewer than 75 with many more wounded. The terror group confirmed this in a 25 minutes video message at the weekend by its leader Abubakar Shekau with a further threat of more attacks in the nation’s capital.

The readiness or lack of it of our security agencies to confront the growing trend of insurgency and most importantly, terrorism in the country and the tardy nature of the political response to this threat to Nigeria’s unity and her territorial integrity are beginning to cause concern among the rest of the populace.

While the bereaved in the Nyanya attack bury their dead and scores of school girls abducted in Borno State by the terrorists are being held captives, most probably as sex slaves in the forest, our political leaders have been busy passing the buck with the leadership of the two main parties engaged in blame game. What a shame!

Meanwhile the security agencies have been trying without success to convince us that they are doing their best to contain the terrible situation. We wish them luck.

In the last couple of weeks the politicians have behaved most irresponsibly in their response to the Boko Haram attacks. Playing politics with the lives and security of Nigerians is a betrayal of trust and utterly condemnable. I do not know what the leadership of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) stand to gain from the verbal assault on each other’s position on this national crisis.

Most irresponsible was the claim by Olisa Metuh, spokesman for PDP that the opposition, meaning APC knows a thing or two about what Boko Haram is doing and most probably in support. Equally annoying is the seeming grandstanding of the APC on the matter at hand. Both parties seem not to understand the enormity of the security challenge facing the nation and are looking for avenues to make cheap political gains from the deplorable security situation in the cautery, particularly in the north east region, all in readiness for the 2015 elections.

Yes, it is in the nature of political parties to try to maximize every opportunity to their political advantage but as it is done elsewhere in well established democracies, when national interest is at stake, all the parties rally round and queue behind the Commander-In-Chief. It is in the light of this that the decision of the leadership of the APC to postpone its states’ congress to enable its governors attend a meeting called by President Goodluck Jonathan on the security situation in the country is commendable. But the party must do more than this. It must not only proffer or suggest credible solutions to the crisis, it must show its commitment to it and also rally its governors, especially in the north to bond together and fight this terror.

To whom much is given, much is expected. The Commander-In-Chief to borrow the words of former Information Minister Professor Jerry Gana must also chiefly command well. If everybody is behind you then you must lead from the front, lead well and responsibly too. Dancing ‘Owambe’ in Ibadan and cutting birthday cake (no matter whose birthday it was) while the Nyanya attack was still fresh (following day) and frolicking away while our girls are still held captive by terrorists in the forest is to say the least irresponsible of President Jonathan. No apologies here. It would also be good if some of our state governors and also presidential spokesmen guard their utterances in the course of this crisis because we are in a delicate period that calls for sober reflection and all hands being put on deck.

Now that all our political leaders from both sides seem to have come to their senses, it is hoped that the President’s meeting with the state governors would be fruitful and chart a way out of this Boko Haram problem and restore peace and security to the north east and all other trouble spots in the country. One meeting certainly cannot achieve this but a good beginning will send the right signal to the terrorists that our leaders are ready and serious to confront them. There have been instances of the federal government hampering the efforts of some states to combat insecurity in the area, just for political gains, especially in states not controlled by the PDP. And not surprisingly, most of the states in the north east are not. The president must behave and act presidential in the interest of Nigeria, no room for sentiments. As the Yoruba would say, the name of the king during whose reign the town was peaceful would never be forgotten or erased, same for the king under whose reign there was chaos. A word is enough for the wise.

Much has been said and written on this page about what the security agencies have done or failed to do in arresting the security situation in the country that it might be pointless repeating them again. But the point has to be made that Nigerians are not happy with them and they should rise up to expectation. Whatever has to be done must be done to defeat terror, defeat Boko Haram, drive the terrorists out of our country and restore peace and security to the north east and other areas under threat of terrorism and, most importantly, restore the trust Nigerians have in one another to leave anywhere in the country peacefully.

But then security is not the business of the security agencies alone, we are all involved. It would be foolish of a man to leave his doors or gates open and go to sleep just because there is a police patrol around. Security of lives and properties starts from the home. Not just locking the gates and doors but also being security conscious and instilling the right security consciousness in our kids. At work, school, play and anywhere there is or going to be a large gathering, security measures must be put in place by those concerned to protect lives and properties.

In the aftermath of the Nyanya bombing, I had a lengthy telephone discussion with someone who claim to be a member of one of the security agencies and he was quite disturbed at the amount of criticism directed at the security agents for their inability to bring Boko Haram and similar organisations to their knees. He claimed that they are doing a lot to arrest the situation and urged Nigerians to be patient both with the government and the security agencies. There is no debating the fact that they are doing a lot, but whether they are doing enough is where the debate is. Be that as it may, suffice to say that you cannot fight a 21st century problem using a 20th century method, it won’t work. To defeat terror in Nigeria, we must outgun, outspend, outsmart, outmaneuver, (out whatever) and overwhelm Boko Haram and their sponsors with all our military might. No amount spent would be too much if at the end of the day Boko Haram is routed and Nigeria gets back to business.

The guy from the security service said operators of Motor Parks, including the leadership of the various transport workers unions should share in the blame of this seeming lack of security at the bus stations.

“What are those union leaders doing at the Parks”, he queried. “ They just sit there collecting money, drinking beer and ‘carrying’ women without any consideration for the security of not just their members but also the traveling populace. Instead of organising themselves and providing security at the Parks, all they do is to ‘enjoy’ themselves. Not even basic security measures are put in place. You find all manner of people at the Motor Parks. Can anybody just go to the airport anyhow?”

He went on and on and on and I could see he was very angry. I share some of his sentiments and concerns and believe that these transport sector unions, the likes of the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW), the Road Transport Employers Association of Nigeria (RTEAN) et al need to organise themselves better, they need to be security conscious and re-orientate their members accordingly. The traveling public and indeed the general public need to key in to this project as well.

The business of security is everybody’s business. Nobody is immune to terror strike. When the terrorists strike, all of us are touched one way or another. May GOD safe Nigeria and deliver us from BOKO HARAM.

Did I hear someone shout Allelujah there?

April 22, 2014
How not to fight terror

The horror of yet another attack and killing of innocent and ordinary Nigerians by the terrorist group Boko Haram was brought closer to the seat of power Monday when an explosion believed to be bomb rocked a busy motor park at Nyanyan near Abuja leaving scores dead and many more wounded.

The early morning attack on the victims, most of whom were travelers either heading out of or coming into the Federal capital was coming on the heels of a travel advisory by the Department of State Security (DSS) to some prominent and high profile Nigerians not to travel to the north east region, the hot bed of the Boko Haram insurgency.

Former Heads of State Generals Mohammadu Buhari, Ibrahim Babangida, Abdusalami Abubakar, second republic president Shehu Shagari, Governors Rabiu Kwankwaso and Shettima of Kano and Borno States respectively, former Governor of Borno, Ali Modu Sheriff, the Sultan, Alhaji Sa’ad Abubakar and Emir of Kano Alhaji Ado Bayero are among a host of other Very Important Personalities and high net worth individuals the DSS say are on the hit list of Boko Haram should they venture to visits any area in the north east. And if they must go there, they must get security clearance and be provided with adequate security to ward off any likely attack by the terrorists.

While recognizing the need to keep our leaders past and present away from harm, leaving the ordinary people open to such attacks as Boko Haram is capable of carrying out raises so many questions as to the ability and capability of our security agencies to protect life and property in this country.

If the DSS could, through its network of spies learn of the plot by Boko Haram to harm these eminent Nigerians, how did it fail to know that the terrorist group was going to strike at Nyanyan and as such warn the people, especially the hundreds of travelers that use the park on a daily basis to either stay away or be very careful?

Proving security anywhere in the world is not error proof, but one would have expected that Abuja being the federal capital and indeed all our major cities should be properly protected to such an extent that the kind of attack at Nyanyan would be impossible for anybody or group to not only contemplate but also carry out. We return to Nyanyan later.

The main point here is the travel advisory. Issuing it or even making it public looks to me like victory for Boko Haram. Now the terror group knows that mere threat from it would be enough to send our security agencies running helter scepter, especially in the direction(s) it wanted. Who knows, the so called hit list could be a ploy by Boko Haram to divert attention from its intended targets giving it enough time wreck havoc and inflict pains on the largest number possible. The hit list could be a diversion to clear the way for such attacks as we’ve just had at Nyanyan.

What lesson can we draw from here?

First we should learn from those that have traveled this route before. How has Israel been able to cope all these years in the face of relentless attacks or planned attack by the Palestinians and their allies? Two decades ago or thereabout, I had cause to be part of a team of Foreign Affairs editors invited by the Israeli Embassy in Lagos to interview former Prime Minister Shimon Peres. The security arrangement was so tight that one was left wondering who would be after Israel or Israeli interest in Nigeria, but you never can tell. May be they had information about a threat of attack, yet Peres was still allowed to travel to Nigeria without any noise being made. By that, if there was any planned attack, it was only known to the planner(s) and perhaps Israeli security. To the outside world, it was business as usual.

This, to me is perhaps one of the best ways to catch any would be terrorist; make them believe you have lowered your guard or even unperturbed by their threats and in the process, lure them into your trap. Now that these people have been warned from going to the north east, Boko Haram would not only feel big, we might not be able to get whoever among them capable of carrying out such an attack on the life of any of these eminent Nigerians.

How do you think the world would react if President Barrack Obama or any of his predecessors or even Senators were to be advised publicly by the CIA not to travel to let’s say Afghanistan, Iraq or even Syria because of the threat of Al Qaeda.? I am sure the reaction is better imagined. You don’t fight terror by running away from it or getting scared; far from it. You fight terror by confronting it. Yes, there is the need to take sensible precaution but not to the point of behaving cowardly. So if tomorrow the DSS gets credible intelligence that Boko Haram was planning to kill all head teachers in the north east, would the Service advise them not to go to work?

By the way why is Boko Haram still this powerful and seemingly unbeatable in spite of the resources both human and material deploy to the north east by government to fight the insurgents since the insurgency began? This is the question we should be asking ourselves. We created a new division of the Nigerian Army for that region yet all we get is massacre of innocent and defenseless people by the terrorists and yet our security forces tell us they are on top of the situation; on top of which situation? Some students on the way to writing last Saturday university matriculation exams (JAMB) in Borno State were killed by insurgents; what are we talking about?

It’s about time an audit of how the military and other security agencies have been fight this war on terror is carried out for us to know whether we are making progress or not. Millions of dollars are allocated to the security forces to fight Boko Haram yet the boys on ground complain of poor motivation and inadequate equipment; so, where have the money gone into? Some of our commanders and their bosses at HQ are alleged to be making money out of this misfortune called Boko Haram; we need to look into this and punish the culprit(s) if any severely. As long as this is going on, the boys out there will not be motivated to fight and Boko Haram would be encouraged to continue the killings.

For the Nyanyans of the world and other such soft targets, the people patronizing these places also need their own travel advisory and protection from our security agencies, after all we are all Nigerians and no Nigerian is more important than the other.

April 15, 2014
2015: Playing the religion card

Getting to know how many we are in Nigeria is a big problem. Even after many head counts we still cannot agree on the true size of our population. Not even the Federal Government can say confidently the number of people occupying this vast expanse of land called Nigeria. What a shame.

While the importance of an accurate census cannot be overemphasized, suffice to say that census is very crucial to any effective programme planning and implementation, especially by the government.

Why we seem incapable of getting our population census right beats one’s imagination. And while several reasons have been adduced for this failure, the tying of resource allocation to states and local governments to the size of their population has been a big hindrance to accurate census. States and local governments are encouraged by this to inflate their population in order to get more resources from the federation account. You may take this as the economic reason.

But there is also the political reason. The bigger the size of the population of a state the bigger the size of its electorate, and if you stretch it further, the bigger it’s political power, influence and clout at the national level, hence the perennial battle between Lagos and Kano States over which is the most populated in Nigeria. This could also determine the number of House of Representatives seat at the National Assembly allocated to each state.

While the jostle for more money and stronger political voice by the states at the federal level, using population figures could be considered as ‘healthy’ the one that is most disturbing is the throwing of religion into the equation by politicians. The battle now is which religion between Islam and Christianity has more followers in the country. While some Muslim leaders say Islam holds the edge, their Christian counterparts believe they are in the majority.

And you know why they are saying this? Just for political gain. The other day a delegation of Muslims were at the Villa to see President Goodluck Jonathan and one of their complaints was that Muslims (who according to them are in the majority in Nigeria) are being shortchanged in this country and they cited the composition of the ongoing national conference which they said was skewed in favour of the Christians. Some christian leaders, especially since Jonathan became president, have been shouting from the roof top claiming marginalization (of Christians) all this while (pro-Jonathan) and threatening all sort if the president was not returned in 2015.

The latest of this dangerous religious card being played by politicians is the likely Muslim/Muslim presidential ticket the main opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) is being speculated as planning for the 2015 presidential election. The two national leaders of the party and its leading lights, Alhaji Mohammadu Buhari and Alhaji Bola Ahmed Tinubu are Muslims and are both being tipped as presidential and vice presidential candidates of the party in next year’s election.

The social media has gone into overdrive since the speculation surfaced in the main stream media over the weekend and from the tone of the discussion the neutrals might be inclined to think that Nigeria is on the brink of a religious war. Far from it. But I doubt whether their is anybody out there without a position on the likely presidential ticket of the two leading parties in 2015.

While common sense dictates that the parties will strike a balance between Christians and Muslims in their choice of candidates to run for the offices of president and vice president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in 2015, the elite who are fanning the embers of religious division within the polity should be careful lest they get consumed by the fire they are stoking.

Rather than promoting ethnic and religious division among Nigerians, these self centered elite should be talking about good governance and which candidate(s) is/are best suited for the job at hand in 2015: leading Nigeria into the promised land.

I don’t know what a Muslim/Muslim or a Christian/Christian presidency could do to improve the lot of the average Nigerian and indeed the entire country if the leaders so elected in 2015 turned out to be bad. What advantage accrued to Christians as a body with the Obasanjo presidency and what did the Muslims get exclusively under the Yar’Adua presidency? Those who benefitted were members of the ruling cabal (both in politics and business) drawn from the two main religions. For every Aliko Dangotes that was there during Obasanjo and Yar’Adua there was a Femi Otedola. Which common man or poor man did you see with them then? I am just using these two successful businessmen and their likes to illustrate the fact that our leaders are drawn together more by interest rather than religion and their decisions are made along that line. How to reverse this trend should be our concern.

Religion is a very delicate and dangerous issue that our leaders should not mix with politics. Any politician or leader who loves Nigeria would not mix the two. While Christianity is very well entrenched in the Southeast/Southsouth and the Middle Belt regions, Islam is the main religion in the north while the two religions coexists peacefully in the Southwest. So much has been said about religious tolerance in the Southwest that some are recommending the region as a model to other parts of the country. The truth is that in Yorubaland our culture and tradition are considered sacrosanct almost above Christianity and Islam. Here religion is personal and one is expected to tolerate the other person’s faith as long as it does not affect the free flow of society.

But this culture of religious tolerance is being stretched by politicians bent on grabbing power in the region at all cost and by all means. And this is dangerous for Yorubaland and may be Nigeria.

Most of the states in the Southwest have majority Muslim population yet our leaders have been Christians and nobody cared. From Chief Obafemi Awolowo to Pa Adekunle Ajasin, Pa Abraham Adesanya, Chief Bola Ige et al, were all Christians and damn good leaders too. And the people followed them. Since the advent of democracy, the governorship of the states in the region has been rotating between Christians and Muslims while in a few of the states one religion has been in charge of the government house for a longer period. To the ordinary person on the street, this does not matter as long as the government is performing. But these desperate politicians are not seeing it that way; to them it is the turn of our faith to produce the next governor. This is the card some politicians are playing in Lagos State now as we move towards the 2015 governorship election in the state.

The incumbent Raji Fashola, a Muslim is not eligible for re-election as he would be completing his two terms of eight years next year and there is a clamour for a Christian to replace him. There is nothing bad in that if you ask me but then the primary consideration in searching for his successor should not be religion. Who can sustain what is on ground in Lagos and even surpass Fashola’s achievements should be uppermost in the minds of those searching for his successor, if the person happens to be a Christian, fine, fantastic. There are Christians who can do it if the leaders search well and the electorate approve.

Lagos has been a model in Nigeria in so many respect and should remain so. Nothing should be done to derail the centre of excellence. Need I say the health of Lagos is the health of Nigeria?

Back to Abuja and the Jonathan’s national conference. It would be good if the delegates could resolve the issue of religion and it’s place in our national life. There is so much talk about Nigeria being a secular state yet our leaders still use state resources to sponsor religious activities. Pilgrimages should be a private affair, left in the hands of the religious bodies set up by the faithful. Government needs only to set up the guidelines and get involved only when consular matters crop up. The amount of money government spends on pilgrimages is one of the reasons these religious groups/bodies are clamouring for one of their own to be in government. If this kind of attraction is no longer there, may be the agitation would wane. May be.

April 8, 2014
That Lamido’s threat to secede

The ongoing Jonathan’s National Conference now in its third week is fast living up to expectation. As predicted by many, (if you like call them enemies of progress)the gathering is fast turning into a mere talk shop, an avenue to let off steam by delegates who most likely have a clearer vision of a better Nigeria but are left frustrated by lack of opportunities to actualize it.

And their problem is compounded by the dos and don’ts of the Conference set by its convener: President Goodluck Jonathan. Nobody is expected or allowed to talk about Nigeria’s unity which the convener says is sacrosanct. All decisions must be reached by consensus or 75 per cent if the delegates had to vote to reach a decision.

The Conference has been likened by some to the Biblical Tower of Babel as the delegates seem not to understand one another and in the ensuing bedlam at one of its sessions last week, the Lamido of Adamawa, one of several traditional rulers appointed as delegates, Alhaji Muhammadu Barkindo Mustapha dropped a bombshell and suddenly the seeming chaos stopped.

The Lamido told the Conference and anybody else who cared to listen that the he and his people in the troubled north eastern part of Nigeria would be prepared to move across the border to Cameroon to join their kiths and kin in the larger Adamawa kingdom at the slightest sign of Nigeria’s disintegration, reminding some of those present that they would probably have nowhere to go if Nigeria ceases to be.

He probably has a point there. The ancient kingdom of Adamawa spreads across north eastern Nigeria into Cameroon. Though the Lamido as head of the kingdom sits in Yola the capital (in Nigeria) the bulk of his subjects are actually Cameroonians and he probably comes from there as well. So, like a one-time governor of (Nigeria’s) Adamawa State (in the 3rd Republic) Saleh Michika once boasted, Alhaji Mustapha could just walk across the desert into Cameroon at the slightest opportunity, leaving behind whatever was left of a ‘disintegrated’ Nigeria and life for him and his people would continue ‘as if nothing had happened’.

Call this a threat to secession and you would not be wrong but I would rather see it as a reminder that some people have little at stake in this country and are probably here because of what they can get out of this geographical expression called Nigeria, or better put, this British contraption called Nigeria.

In the same vein, the Lamido’s comments during debate on the proposed rules of the Conference should be seen in my view as a confirmation of the fact that we are yet to forge a nation out of the people inhabiting this vast country called Nigeria.

The threat to walk out of Nigeria by the Lamido, speaking for and on behalf of his people as I said earlier is not new. Governor Michika had said so in the past during one of Nigeria’s trying periods as we have now and nothing came out of it. And nothing came out of it simply because no one of Nigeria’s numerous ethnic nationalities seriously wants to leave the country, not necessarily because they would have nowhere to go but out of fear of what a fragmented Nigeria could look like in the context of the scramble for partition that would follow.

Where would the borders of the Yoruba nation be if Nigeria should break up, River Niger in the North? After all that was the northern border of the sprawling Oyo Empire before the Fulani Jihadists invasion and there are still Yoruba indigenous to Lokoja immediately under the Niger to the south. And to the east Alaafin’s writ extended far into what is today’s Port Novo or Ajase in Benin Republic. Oyo Empire even shared border with Ghana.

The Hausa/Fulani in the north can claim territories tied to religious and cultural affinities far deep into Chad, Niger and even west wards into Senegal and Mali. So how far or deep would the partition be? Wouldn’t Cameroon want to annex such States as Cross River and Akwa Ibom? The Ijaw would want to annex exclusively the south-south region and its resources if their current disposition to resource control and the Nigeria ‘nation’ is anything to go by and one can imagine the kind of civil war that is likely to take place as the other non-Ijaw try to assert their equality or seek their own nation. And to think Ndigbo would stand by watching with arms folded would be deluding oneself.

So, it pays everybody for Nigeria to remain as one, the empty threats of the Lamido and his ilk notwithstanding. Disintegration is not the solution to our problem and as the Yoruba would say, cutting off the head is not the solution to or cure for headache. Everybody, every ethnic nationality in Nigeria would have a homestead to return to in case of disintegration, if the Lamido of Adamawa needed to be reminded. Staying together as one is because it is in our best interest, but if we don’t want to stay together again, then let us talk about it and agree on how best to part, but not under any threat. Not from the Lamido or any other person or group in Nigeria, whether from the north, east, west or south.

But rather than condemn Alhaji Mustapha for his outburst, we should take the bull by its horns and discuss our unity. Why would someone or an ethnic nationality want to leave this ‘nation’? By talking about it at this conference or any other forum would not necessarily translate into disintegration, it could help us to understand each other better and assist in laying a more solid foundation for Nigeria.

We all know the causes of our problems in this country and the solution but we lack the courage to implement the solution. We have a federation that cannot work the way it is skewed in favour of the central government. But because it is beneficial to some interests, the leadership would not make the necessary change. That is the crux of our problem; self centred leadership. And until we think Nigeria in everything we do, we would not get anywhere near solving our problems not even with this Conference or any other one.

As for Alhaji Mustapha, the Lamido of Adamawa (worldwide) we should thank him for reminding us of our inadequacies, but he should be reminded that people like him, the privileged class, have contributed immensely to our problems as a country and they should repent and make restitution before nemesis catches up with them. Their day of judgment is around the corner; the generation that would rescue Nigeria from them has come, their time would soon be up.

April 1, 2014
Menace of the herdsmen

Driving at night in Lagos could be fun and pleasurable but it has its own flipside. While one is guaranteed a near traffic free situation on the road, one would also need all the senses to be at full alert because in this mega city anything could happen.

For those who live around the abattoir at Oko-Oba, Agege or who have cause to drive along Agege Motor Road up to Abule Egba, driving at night requires the use of one’s sixth sense. And the reason is simple.

From 11 pm or thereabout every day, tens of cattle are released in batches from the main abattoir on to the road and herded by two or three stick wielding herdsmen on their way to the smaller abattoirs scattered all over the metropolis. All you need to look out for are flashlights in the darkness and you know the herdsmen and their cows have taken over the road. You risk being attacked by the cows or their managers if you fail to dim or put off your headlamp. It could be a dangerous experience for a first timer some of whom had ran into the herd of cattle in the past with serious and at times fatal consequences.

The menace posed to others by the herdsmen and their cows is not restricted to the rural area or farmland alone as city dwellers are also exposed to the danger. The issue of the herdsmen always wanting to have their way without minding the feelings, interests and safety of others is fast assuming a dangerous dimension that requires urgent government attention.

The problem in the rural area is always grazing right. The herdsmen, mostly Fulani are always looking for green areas where their animals can feed, and in the absence of specially designated grazing zones or areas, farmlands are becoming attractive for this purpose. But the farmer who had toiled to prepare his farm waiting for a bumper harvest would have none of this and is ready to defend his investment even with his life. So, there is always a clash of interest and when the interest is economic you can expect a fierce battle.

But of recent, the interest is becoming ethnic and political as can be seen from the recent gun attack on the convoy of Benue State governor, Gabriel Suswam by some Fulani herdsmen as he was heading to Guma Local Government Area in the state where several Tiv farmers were wounded during clashes with the herdsmen. Since the attack which left many people shocked and alarmed at the dimension this perennial Fulani herdsmen/farmers conflict has taken, both parties have been pointing accusing fingers at each other’s direction, with the governor calling the attackers terrorists.

The sophistication of the weapons used by the herdsmen in their attack on the farmers has led to speculation that interests other than mere grazing rights are behind the attacks which continued over the weekend at Gbajimba, headquarters of Guma Local government where no fewer than 25 farmers were killed and 50 others injured.

With the present poor security situation in the country especially in the North East region, genuine fears are being expressed that if the Fulani herdsmen were not stopped by government, elements with interests other than those of the herdsmen could infiltrate their ranks and turn their ‘genuine’ agitation for grazing right for their cattle into another terrorist agitation the type which Boko Haram is championing in some parts in the north.

Those who know say Boko Haram began with limited sporadic attacks like what the herdsmen are doing now and with no serious effort by government to stop them grew into the monster it is today. The question is who is arming these herdsmen and could their fight be just over grazing rights alone?

When Boko Haram started we didn’t pay enough attention with the Federal Government treating it as a local problem of the Kanuri of the North East, but today the group has turned into a monster that is threatening not just the north but the security of the entire nation. The group also has the tendency to destabilize the ECOWAS sub region if West African leaders fail to act in unison to defeat this terror.

When Biafra started then Head of State General Yakubu Gowon thought the police would be enough to contain it and treated it as a police action. What probably could have been nipped in the bud led to 30 months of civil war and loss of millions of lives on both sides.

I hope the Goodluck Jonathan government would learn from our mistakes with Biafra and the current insurgency by Boko Haram and treat the Fulani herdsmen and farmers incessant clashes in different parts of the country with the seriousness it deserves.

Ask the farmers in Oke-Ogun area of Oyo State and they will tell you of their bitter experience in the hands of the rampaging herdsmen. Today there is a semblance of peace in the area between the two groups. How was this achieved? May be the government of Oyo State could teach its counterpart in Benue and indeed the Federal government one or two things on how to achieve peaceful co-existence between warring groups.

May be as way of permanently settling this recurring conflict, dedicated grazing zones should be created by both federal and state governments to take care of cattle and other animals grazing. The herdsmen can then be restricted to those areas so created and be provided with infrastructure both for their personal convenience and their animals. The so called nomadic education programme of the federal government could be included in the scheme with schools built for the children of the herdsmen in the grazing zones.

But more importantly, is it not time we change the way animals are brought from the north to the south? As was suggested sometime in the second republic by late Chief Obafemi Awolowo, big abattoirs could be set up in cities in the north like Kano, connected to the railway system where these animals would be slaughtered and transported to the south by high speed train in specially refrigerated coaches. This would eliminate the need for herdsmen to bring their animals by foot or road to the lucrative market in the south and reduce the tendency to clash with farmers on their route over grazing right.

For those of us in the cities while we thank our stars that we have no farm that the herdsmen could devour with their cattle, the long convoy of cows on the road at night poses danger to motorists who have no choice but drive at night. And to our children, stray cows are also dangerous. So, no one is immune to the menace posed by these herdsmen, but they also need our understanding. I think it is about time government intervenes to protect the interest of all the parties and stop further herdsmen/farmers bloodletting.

March 25, 2014
That Immigration job tragedy

The death of no fewer than 19 job seekers at the last nationwide job recruitment exercise of the Nigeria Immigration Service was a sad reminder of how bad things have gone in this country.

If over 700,000 applied for just 4,560 vacancies then it goes without saying that the unemployment situation in the country is far worse than we thought. And the unemployed are not just the ones without formal or informal jobs they include some in paid employment whose take home cannot take them home so to speak.

The situation is further compounded by employment/job placement agencies that have contracts to recruit or supply workers for some blue chip companies. The job seekers get the job no doubt, but they are forced to share their salary with the agency that recruited them.

I didn’t know about this until a nephew got a job with one of the third generation banks. She had been at home for two years after her National Youth Service and was desperate to get a job. She was invited for what I would call ‘blind’ interview because they weren’t told which company wanted to hire them. Lucky to scale the first hurdle, she was invited along with a few others for the second interview after which she was offered provisional employment. The bank offered about N130, 000 as monthly salary but the agency to which their employment was contracted wanted half of the money or no job for them.

For obvious reasons, she rejected the offer but a lot of her colleagues couldn’t because they just needed to get somewhere to go in the morning and return in the evening under the guise of working even if the salary could barely cover their transport fare. They cannot continue to stay at home any longer. The frustration of joblessness had driven them almost to the point of insanity, so any job would do.

I thought this was rubbish and was going to fight it until a friend told me it was not a new thing and spoke of a relation who is into that kind of slavery employment with this same third generation bank.

You can now imagine why over 700,000 applied for 4,560 jobs. The NIS being a Federal government agency guarantees job security and is relatively well paying. Nobody shares your salary with you except your family and relations. And all things being equal you can expect to work till your retirement and earn a hefty gratuity and good pension thereafter.

These are some of the attractions of government jobs whether federal, state or local, and they probably explain why those 700,000 Nigerians wanted to work with the NIS. It would not be out of place to say that not all of them are unemployed. A few just wanted to change jobs and thought being an Immigration Officer is a better option.

If job security and perhaps better pay are some of the attractions to Federal Government jobs, why can’t other employers offer same for their workers? The situation is worse in the private sector where most employers hire casual labour in their workforce primarily to reduce cost and also free themselves from all obligations under permanent employment.

Salaries are often not paid as and when due and the workers for fear of being sacked keep quiet hoping that tomorrow would be better. And when they remember the number of years they spent at home before getting the job, they would rather hang on than challenge their employers or resign; half bread they say is better than none, you hear them say.

Some parents had invested so much in the education and training of their children with the lawful expectation that the children would get a good job after graduation to be able to take care of them in their old age. Unfortunately things have not turned out that way for most of them. Some in their old ages are still sustaining their adult children; it is this bad.

I am sure most of those 700,000 Nigerians that turned out at designated centres across the federation last Saturday for the 4, 560 NIS jobs took all these into consideration before they applied for and headed for the interview. But what did they get? Tears, sorrows and blood.

The choice of the National Stadium in Abuja and other similar facilities across the federation for the interview showed that the NIS anticipated a large turnout of applicants, so, what or how did they prepare for them? In Abuja where no fewer than seven persons died, little or nothing was provided for the almost 70,000 that turned up for the interview in terms of medical service. Under normal circumstances, a venue that can accommodate 70,000 people at once must as of necessity and rule be provided with basic medical facilities in case of emergency. Was any provided by NIS at the stadium last Saturday?

The Minister of Interior Abba Moro, under whose control the NIS falls, in an unguarded statement blamed some of the applicants for being unruly and accused some of turning up even when they did not apply for the job. What a stupid talk? Even if they were not invited, which I doubt, the NIS and by extension the Ministry of Interior should have made adequate preparation for crowd control in cases of emergencies like last Saturday’s. More so, NIS being a paramilitary organization should have trained its officers and men in effective and safe crowd control. If this had been done, there would have been no need to use the military to control the surging crowd.

There are so many gates leading into and out of the main bowl of the Abuja National Stadium, why was it that only one of them was opened to let the applicants in? Was this the NIS way of controlling the crowd?

We often wonder why Nigeria doesn’t get the nod to host international events like South Africa by the international organizing bodies; this is one of the reasons. You can imagine if last Saturday’s job interview was an international event and what an embarrassment it would have been for our country internationally?

I remember one Challenge Cup semi of final match at the Surulere, Lagos National Stadium sometime in the late 70s played under floodlight. The match ended in favour of the less fancied team and somebody somewhere in the Stadium Management decided to put off the floodlight immediately after the match apparently as punishment for the winning team and its supporters. In pitch darkness, the spectators started filling out only to see all the gates but one locked. The stampede was exactly like last Saturday’s and many souls were lost.

We didn’t learn anything from that experience. In 2008 people also died during job recruitment exercise by the same NIS and its counterpart in the Nigeria Prison Service. It doesn’t seem we learnt anything from that experience either. Only if don’t fail to learn from their mistakes and they are condemned to repeating it. Are we fools in this country?

This is no time to point accusing fingers at anyone as all of us are guilty of not planning well or not being faithful to our plans. This is one of our national problems and the earlier we tackle it together with our other problems the better. But then, some people must be punished for the death of this Nigerians, let’s start with Comrade Abba Moro and his team including the NIS leadership.

Over to you President Goodluck Jonathan.

March 18, 2014
Return of fuel queues

When most Nigerians had thought that the days of motorists spending the night at filling stations in a seemingly endless wait for fuel had long gone, the devil appeared again in Lagos, Abuja and most of our major towns and cities last week crippling economic activities. And as usual, the government is blaming saboteurs for the scarcity.

For most of last week, many people could not leave their homes either because they couldn’t get fuel for their vehicles (cars) or couldn’t afford the astronomical fare hike imposed by commercial transporters. While the pumps at filling stations could not dispense petrol as their tanks were dry, the mobile filling stations operated by touts along busy roads and highways were in full operation selling a litre of petrol for as high as N500 and in some cases N1,000 depending on how desperate the situation of the intending buyer was.

From one filling station to another, motorists wore long faces in frustration as their vehicles gather dust after several days on the queue with no hope of getting fuel. At the stations they were told there were no supplies from the marketers, yet they heard on their radio and television government officials insisting that fuel was available and was being hoarded by God knows who.

From the comfort of their homes and offices the Minister of Petroleum and her officials at the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) could see millions of litres of fuel out there being diverted and the people were asking; by who and to where? If truly the fuel was there and being taken elsewhere, whose duty is it to apprehend those diverting the commodity? Is it not the government? When the queue first appeared the usual response was to blame it on panic buying. Each time one hears this one gets annoyed. Why would anybody rush to buy fuel if it is there at the filling stations in abundance? Why would anybody buy the commodity if he doesn’t need it? With people’s disposable income fast depleting, nobody would want to buy more that the quantity of fuel he requires at a time, but if somebody would need like 60 litres over a period of two/three days he would look for money to buy the 60 litres at once if he suspects that he might not get the commodity to buy again the next day or the day after at the official price due to one reason or another. Is this what they call panic buying? I think it’s just common sense; preparing ahead of time. If the Minister of Petroleum, Madam Deziani Allison-Madueke and her officials had been planning ahead, no amount of fuel diversion by whoever would be enough to cause petrol scarcity. But we all know that they don’t plan ahead; we know that this government has no plan beyond today. If they do, why is it that there is no strategic reserve from where petrol can be pumped into the market in times of emergencies or shortage like we’ve just had?

One is not even sure the NNPC or its subsidiary in charge of fuel supply could say the exact litres of fuel Nigerians consume daily, because if this is known, then it would be easier to foresee shortage before it arrives any time there was likely to be disruption in supply. Oil business is essentially a futures business. Supplies (whether crude oil or refined products) are ordered and paid for months ahead and contingencies are made ahead of time for any disruption or delay in supply by wise buyers. The spot market is there to take care of any emergency order. Of course this comes at a higher price but at least the problem of disruption would have been solved.

We all know the problem facing our refineries and even if the problems are no longer there and they are operating at installed capacity, their entire production would not be enough to satisfy the Nigerian market so we would still need to import. For a very long time now, we have had to rely on fuel import either directly or through marketers and this must be paid for. Did we order and pay for enough fuel?

The major marketers always complain about government owing them for fuel import and each time Nigerians hear this they fear that scarcity was around the corner. And from experience this had always been the case each time there was fuel shortage. So why was the government owing these people? If somebody is helping you to discharge your responsibility to your people the least you can do is to pay that person promptly. If the government through its appropriate agency had made sure our refineries are working and have enough capacity to satisfy the market, there would have been no need for fuel import, therefore no need to rely on marketers. In fact, the marketers would be buying from the refineries here for sale at their various filling stations scattered across the country. So why can’t we fix the refineries?

This is a million Naira question that only the government could answer. We have been told several times that Port Harcourt and Warri refineries are about coming back to life. Even if and when they are back, how far can they ameliorate the problem? Kaduna refinery? Don’t even talk about that.

I think it is about time we decide on what to do with these refineries; should government own and operate them or sell them to core investors? The modern trend tend to support privatizing the refineries but then if the experience of the recently privatized Power Holding Corporation of Nigeria (PHCN) is anything to go by, Nigerians wouldn’t want the refineries to be sold.

Since the private investors in the power sector assumed control of the electricity companies, not much has been felt by Nigerians in terms of improved power supply. What we have been having in the last couple of months is darkness, sprinkled with few hours of light. So if the refineries go to private hands, Nigerians are afraid of a similar treatment. But then they are also worried that the government has not shown any capacity to do the job better. So what do we do? Most people, especially would argue that the solution lies in privatizing the existing refineries and encourage private businesses to build more refineries to increase local capacity to refine our crude oil into petrol, diesel and other petroleum products not just for internal use but also for export.

I do not know the extent of damage the last fuel scarcity has done to the battered image of the Jonathan administration, but I do know that if the trend should continue it would spell doom for the President and his party in the 2015 general elections.

A word is enough for the wise.

March 11, 2014