Concerns raised by former Chief of Army Staff Gen. Abdulrahman Dambazau on the effects of raging insecurity on the 2023 elections should be something to worry about. He asked, “Would insecurity affect the 2023 elections? Surely it would because some of the communities would still be displaced and terrorists would likely continue to attack soft targets, INEC officials would be highly apprehensive despite the assurances by the government to protect them.”
He said security threat should not be limited to the activities of terror groups in the north but also the proscribed Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) that had earlier threatened there would be no election in the south-east. For this, Dambazau would want the government to take steps to reduce the potential threats posed by non-state actors to the overall success of the 2023 elections.
There is merit in his concerns, given that security is one of the irreducible decimals in guaranteeing free, fair and credible elections. Even in times of comparative national peace and stability, our elections were fraught with sundry malpractices that combined to reduce their credibility. Cases of arson, killings, snatching of ballot boxes and other infractions that impugn the integrity of elections were noticeable flaws.
But these are not the infractions Dambazau is concerned with. He is rather worried by the near state of war that has displaced thousands of citizens from their ancestral homes and organised confrontation between the government and groups nursing one form of grievance or the other.
Within this group, we have the Boko Haram insurgents that are bent on enforcing their brand of weird religious belief, Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), the rampaging bandits/herdsmen that have become the greatest source of terror especially in the north and the IPOB that is canvassing for self-determination.
The combined activities of these groups have resulted in the elevated level of insecurity across the country with the government seemingly helpless in maintaining law and order. The level of killings and descent into anarchy has become a monumental scandal to the authority of the government.
Critical institutions of the government including those at the seat of power have been brazenly and successfully assailed by the terrorists forcing the government into panic measures. And it does not seem relief is in sight.
Yet, we are about to enter into election campaigns that will further heat up the political atmosphere. So, the worries expressed by the former army chief are not only timely but a clarion call on the government to take decisive measures to de-escalate the high tempo of insecurity in the land.
There is general fear and apprehension in the country. Many have fled their communities as sundry unidentified killer groups continue in their orgy of violence against innocent citizens. In some states, it has become a matter of buck-passing between the government and the opposition with each seeking to take advantage.
This trend is dangerous. Knowing the desperation of politicians to win elections at all costs, nobody is certain the extent groups, individuals and those in government seeking power can go in exploiting the festering insecurity to advantage.
So, the threat to the success of the elections by the festering insecurity is real and potent. It will arise from the unceasing attacks on critical institutions of the government including the INEC. It will also come through the inability of electoral officials to access certain areas on account of safety concerns. Insecurity will be exploited by politicians to take maximum advantage. They did that in comparably peaceful times.
Self-serving prompting will propel politicians to do more of it this time around, especially given the new electoral law permitting direct transmission of election results. Insecurity could be exploited to disenfranchise voters in areas powerful interests are not popular by ensuring that voting did not hold there.
That is why there have been calls from some quarters for the postponement of the elections to address not just insecurity but all other national questions whose resolution will equally guarantee national stability and progress. The impression one gets is that the 2023 elections hold the magic wand to resolve the plethora of political and economic deficits plaguing the country.
But that appears to be a very limited perspective of the matter. Whereas a good leader may take some time through well- informed policies and programmes to redirect the country’s trajectory, it will be hard to expect the same results on security matters given its degenerate level to the point of encumbering the new government from easy take-off.
These are the foreboding signals. And if President Buhari, with all his touted experience in the military and governance can be so overwhelmed by security challenges, what guarantee is there that any of the leading candidates of the parties will perform any magic so soon after? That is the issue to ponder.
So, are we not deliberately laying landmines for the new government by allowing them to get embroiled in serious combat with non-state actors for the loyalty of the citizens so early? Can a new government afford such foundational challenges of establishing its authority over its constituents and be able to deliver on its electoral mandate?
I have heard some of the candidates asked how they intend to go about the insecurity in the country. I am not aware any of them has been able to proffer conclusive answers. It will be equally uncharitable to expect them to do so. What their predicament highlights is the delicate nature of proffering conclusive answers to such dynamic but degenerate and complex situations.
If there is no attempt to encumber the new government, then Buhari must take urgent measures to restore peace in the country. Where political solutions are readily available (as we know they are), no time should be further wasted in calling them into action.